So it's made its way around the interwebs by now, but regarding the potential Michael Young trade (quick version: Michael Young wants to be traded, and the Astros are on his list of teams that he would approve a trade): Are you freaking kidding me?
First of all, Michael Young is 34. He plays 3B. He's owed $48m through 2013 ($16m per year). This means the Astros would be paying that amount of money to a 3B in years 34, 35, and 36.
There's absolutely no way - hopefully - Ed Wade offers up Carlos Lee for that deal. Would I like to see Carlos Lee gone? Oh hell, and yes, I would. But Carlos Lee is about six months younger, and is "only" still owed $37m through 2012. So that's less of a financial commitment for a shorter period of time for a (barely) younger player.
Zach Levine puts it this way:
Taking on Young means adding on an additional year with a huge and immobile contract. While Lee's goes through 2012 at $18.5 million per year, Young's goes through 2013 at $16 million. The additional sticking point would be the deferred money, $15 million that would be paid out presumably by the new ownership group in 2014 and beyond.
Smilin' Ken Rosenthal calls a Lee-Young deal a longshot, because remember Big Timmy P gave Carlos Lee a full no-trade clause. I can't imagine he would sign off on a deal to Texas. He's been there once, and left the first chance he got.
If you're of the opinion that Carlos Lee's 2010 was an anomaly, then note that - even with 2010 - over the last three seasons he's hit .284/.331/.483. Over the course of the same period, Young has hit .295/.346/.451. Is that worth an extra $11m? Nope. If the Astros make that deal, and for whatever reason, Lee signs off, and the Rangers accept it, it moves either Bill Hall or Chris Johnson to the bench or to the minors. Add to that the Rangers have an outfield of Josh Hamilton, Julio Borbon, and Nelson Cruz. Presumably Lee would DH (at least that's what would happen if the Rangers had an ounce of common sense) - would he make that move?
To sum up, this is complete bullcrap, and I can't believe this has even been entertained.
Though FanGraphs' Dave Cameron has a different view:
The Astros aren’t exactly set on the infield. They have Bill Hall slated to play second base and Chris Johnson slotted in for third, but neither of those options are long term solutions, and Young would be able to play everyday in Houston without blocking anyone who might have a decent future.
Mm. Thanks for that.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
Astros ink two more
Alyson Footer tweets that the Astros have agreed to terms with:
-Jason Bourgeois ($424K)
-Aneury Rodriguez ($413K)
-Jason Bourgeois ($424K)
-Aneury Rodriguez ($413K)
Interview with Chip Rives
So, thanks to Twitter, we were sent the link to a documentary on the Astrodome, fittingly called, The Dome (which is still in production). So we sent some questions to Director Chip Rives, and he was kind enough to answer.
AC: When did your work on "The Dome" begin, and how did it come about?
CR: We began working on the Dome about 2 years ago. The first step - and most difficult - was securing the location, and getting access into the building. We got a chance to do a series of shoots and interviews in the Dome, in the summer of 2009. About 1 month after shooting, the Dome was shut down...failing to meet certain fire code standards. Who knows, we might be the last film crew in the building...sad, but true.
Back to the genesis of the project....I've lived everywhere (New York, Connecticut, Tulsa, San Francisco) in addition to Houston and Austin, and for the life of me, never understood why THE DOME lacked the national acclaim it deserves. I've produced lots of documentaries and thought "The Dome" was a good idea. Fortunately, David Karabinas and his partners at Texas Crew agreed, we formed an LLC, and began shooting.
We are still in production, and still raising money to finish this project...which has been challenging. We didn't want to cheapen the film by rushing to completion, so we're moving a bit slower than we'd anticipated, but that's ok. It will get done. We are also putting an open call out there for funding...and we've partnered with a non-profit...so if you're looking for a tax write-off, let us know!!
AC: For many of us Astros fans (or, any reader over the age of ten), the Astrodome was an integral part of our youth. How did the Astrodome sum up the 1960s, and Houston, in particular?
CR: The Dome personifies Houston of the '60s...it embodies growth, vision, aggressiveness, confidence, charisma, flash. Houston was evolving from the old stereotypes of the West, was flush with oil money, and wanted to be recognized - not for what it was - but for what it was becoming.
People like the Judge, RE Bob Smith, Welcome Wilson...these guys were the pioneers that puffed out their chest, and basically said, "check us out." Of course, the Dome brought the eyes of the world to Houston, and in some ways, legitimized the city.
AC: To you, what is the most compelling story of the Astrodome?
CR: The Judge. He really is the Dome. He lived it, breathed it, personified it. There were others who were less visible, that were certainly influential in its creation, but not like the Judge. In order for the building to have success it needed a front-man. We've all heard the PT Barnum comparisons...and they're legitimate. Roy Hofheinz was a showman and THE DOME was his show.
AC: How do you feel about the state the Astrodome is in, currently? Do you have any suggestions for what can be done with it?
Of course I'm saddened to watch it decay like it has, but it's interesting...in the wake of Ike, the Dome stood tall, solid, almost 50 years later...didn't flinch at Ike's winds and rain, while the new version of itself got dinged pretty hard. Kind of ironic, isn't it?
Regarding the politics...that's really not my place.
AC: What's your earliest, and favorite, Astrodome memory?
CR: Earliest memory is a double header in the 70s - not sure who was even playing - and I was probably about 7 years old. I just remember going to the game with my dad and some friends, and bringing sandwiches inside, and being told that we were gonna be there for several hours. I thought that was so cool...getting to hang in the Dome for that long.
Favorite memory is probably being in the Dome when the Oilers returned from Pittsburgh after losing the AFC Championship. I begged my dad to take me, and he did. Pretty amazing to see those players, and the passion the fans had for that team. It was a special time...and a special place.
-
Big thanks to Chip for taking the time to answer these questions. Click the link above for more information, and for the trailer.
AC: When did your work on "The Dome" begin, and how did it come about?
CR: We began working on the Dome about 2 years ago. The first step - and most difficult - was securing the location, and getting access into the building. We got a chance to do a series of shoots and interviews in the Dome, in the summer of 2009. About 1 month after shooting, the Dome was shut down...failing to meet certain fire code standards. Who knows, we might be the last film crew in the building...sad, but true.
Back to the genesis of the project....I've lived everywhere (New York, Connecticut, Tulsa, San Francisco) in addition to Houston and Austin, and for the life of me, never understood why THE DOME lacked the national acclaim it deserves. I've produced lots of documentaries and thought "The Dome" was a good idea. Fortunately, David Karabinas and his partners at Texas Crew agreed, we formed an LLC, and began shooting.
We are still in production, and still raising money to finish this project...which has been challenging. We didn't want to cheapen the film by rushing to completion, so we're moving a bit slower than we'd anticipated, but that's ok. It will get done. We are also putting an open call out there for funding...and we've partnered with a non-profit...so if you're looking for a tax write-off, let us know!!
AC: For many of us Astros fans (or, any reader over the age of ten), the Astrodome was an integral part of our youth. How did the Astrodome sum up the 1960s, and Houston, in particular?
CR: The Dome personifies Houston of the '60s...it embodies growth, vision, aggressiveness, confidence, charisma, flash. Houston was evolving from the old stereotypes of the West, was flush with oil money, and wanted to be recognized - not for what it was - but for what it was becoming.
People like the Judge, RE Bob Smith, Welcome Wilson...these guys were the pioneers that puffed out their chest, and basically said, "check us out." Of course, the Dome brought the eyes of the world to Houston, and in some ways, legitimized the city.
AC: To you, what is the most compelling story of the Astrodome?
CR: The Judge. He really is the Dome. He lived it, breathed it, personified it. There were others who were less visible, that were certainly influential in its creation, but not like the Judge. In order for the building to have success it needed a front-man. We've all heard the PT Barnum comparisons...and they're legitimate. Roy Hofheinz was a showman and THE DOME was his show.
AC: How do you feel about the state the Astrodome is in, currently? Do you have any suggestions for what can be done with it?
Of course I'm saddened to watch it decay like it has, but it's interesting...in the wake of Ike, the Dome stood tall, solid, almost 50 years later...didn't flinch at Ike's winds and rain, while the new version of itself got dinged pretty hard. Kind of ironic, isn't it?
Regarding the politics...that's really not my place.
AC: What's your earliest, and favorite, Astrodome memory?
CR: Earliest memory is a double header in the 70s - not sure who was even playing - and I was probably about 7 years old. I just remember going to the game with my dad and some friends, and bringing sandwiches inside, and being told that we were gonna be there for several hours. I thought that was so cool...getting to hang in the Dome for that long.
Favorite memory is probably being in the Dome when the Oilers returned from Pittsburgh after losing the AFC Championship. I begged my dad to take me, and he did. Pretty amazing to see those players, and the passion the fans had for that team. It was a special time...and a special place.
-
Big thanks to Chip for taking the time to answer these questions. Click the link above for more information, and for the trailer.
Brett Wallace is a sweetheart
Alyson Footer lets us know that Brett Wallace is visiting kids at Texas Childrens Hospital. And he set it up on his own, not through the Astros.
Meat Wagon update
Great. Spring Training hasn't even started, and we're already getting injuries. Levine has a story on Angel Sanchez, who is already dealing with a ribcage strain, and will "hopefully" be ready for the first full-squad workout of the spring on February 20.
Nidiffer looks for a big year
With a captip to Appy Astros, we get this story on Marcus Nidiffer from Kentucky.com, who notes that he's been officially moved from Catcher to 1B (which makes sense, given the Astros' recent load-up on catchers).
"I would say it's a lot easier to go from catcher to first than it is to go from first to catcher, that's for sure. But it is an adjustment. It's a lot easier on my body, I'll tell you that. I get a lot more 'ABs' but I'm still working at it. I still need work at first with groundballs and just learning the position. ... I've got a wood bat in my hands now, but it's still the same deal."
"I would say it's a lot easier to go from catcher to first than it is to go from first to catcher, that's for sure. But it is an adjustment. It's a lot easier on my body, I'll tell you that. I get a lot more 'ABs' but I'm still working at it. I still need work at first with groundballs and just learning the position. ... I've got a wood bat in my hands now, but it's still the same deal."
Levine, on the Winter Ballers
Zach Levine has an update on Rule 5 pick Aneury Rodriguez and Fernando Abad, noting that Rodriguez has thrown 48IP and Abad has thrown 38.2IP.
On Abad:
He enters spring training most likely headed to the bullpen and enjoying the inside track to the primary lefty setup role. However, the rotation is not out of the question, as he was immensely successful in that role this winter.
Both will play in the Caribbean Series, but if Rodriguez doesn't stay on the 25-man roster all season, he'll head back to Tampa Bay.
On Abad:
He enters spring training most likely headed to the bullpen and enjoying the inside track to the primary lefty setup role. However, the rotation is not out of the question, as he was immensely successful in that role this winter.
Both will play in the Caribbean Series, but if Rodriguez doesn't stay on the 25-man roster all season, he'll head back to Tampa Bay.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Astros vs. Pence: The Date Has Been Set
We interrupt this unofficial break to inform you that, according to Hardball Talk (via the Examiner), Feb 18 is the date for Tal Smith to get his argue on in the Case Against Hunter Pence.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Look at Justice using WAR!
Richard Justice has a really good post about Hunter Pence's development, and whether he will ever be an elite player:
He'll turn 28 shortly after Opening Day, and there's not a single number that indicates he's even close to being a special player. Solid player? Yes. Contributor to a winning team? Absolutely. Star? No.
Well done, Justice, well done.
He'll turn 28 shortly after Opening Day, and there's not a single number that indicates he's even close to being a special player. Solid player? Yes. Contributor to a winning team? Absolutely. Star? No.
Well done, Justice, well done.
New video board indicates competing with home
There are going to be people who go to every single Astros game, no matter what. There are others who will buy the mini-packages, and the packages that include games against the Rangers, inter-league series, and other higher-profile games.
Lower-level dugout box seats at Minute Maid Park are $53. The most expensive ticket is in the 2nd-level Club I section, at $55. The average ticket price (not including Dynamic Pricing) is $27.42.
We know all about the cost of going to a Major League game, Drayton's $8 beer, parking, etc, but one reason for implementing the Astros' new video board, according to Astros Senior VP, Communications, is preposterous:
"It's almost like we have to compete with home. People can stay at home now and watch HD, and now at the ballpark there are going to be two full HD boards — true HD — and the overall entertainment is going to be much improved here."
I'm one of those people who will go to any game I can. But no video board is ever going to make me come to a game. I'm willing to grant that I'm curious as to what it'll look like. I'll even grant that one may even go to one game with the primary reason being to see what the between-play entertainment will be. But if you're a "Whatever" Fan, and you routinely spend your money to come to Minute Maid Park solely to look at TWO HD BOARDS then, I'm sorry, you are not smart.
Of course the Astros have to compete with people saying, "Screw it, I'll stay home and watch." Every team has to do that. Especially every team that isn't winning games at a .600 clip. I just wish the Astros would have come out and said, "Look, Drayton's trying to sell the team, and having these HD video boards is just like making brownies right before someone comes to look at a house that's for sale." It's the same thing.
Lower-level dugout box seats at Minute Maid Park are $53. The most expensive ticket is in the 2nd-level Club I section, at $55. The average ticket price (not including Dynamic Pricing) is $27.42.
We know all about the cost of going to a Major League game, Drayton's $8 beer, parking, etc, but one reason for implementing the Astros' new video board, according to Astros Senior VP, Communications, is preposterous:
"It's almost like we have to compete with home. People can stay at home now and watch HD, and now at the ballpark there are going to be two full HD boards — true HD — and the overall entertainment is going to be much improved here."
I'm one of those people who will go to any game I can. But no video board is ever going to make me come to a game. I'm willing to grant that I'm curious as to what it'll look like. I'll even grant that one may even go to one game with the primary reason being to see what the between-play entertainment will be. But if you're a "Whatever" Fan, and you routinely spend your money to come to Minute Maid Park solely to look at TWO HD BOARDS then, I'm sorry, you are not smart.
Of course the Astros have to compete with people saying, "Screw it, I'll stay home and watch." Every team has to do that. Especially every team that isn't winning games at a .600 clip. I just wish the Astros would have come out and said, "Look, Drayton's trying to sell the team, and having these HD video boards is just like making brownies right before someone comes to look at a house that's for sale." It's the same thing.
Astros agree to deals with four
The Astros agreed to one-year deals with four players yesterday:
Jimmy Paredes: $414,000
Brian Bogusevic: $416,500
Enerio Del Rosario: $417,000
Wilton Lopez: $442,000
Jimmy Paredes: $414,000
Brian Bogusevic: $416,500
Enerio Del Rosario: $417,000
Wilton Lopez: $442,000
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Joel Roza on Lyles
The Caller-Times' Joel Roza (a buddy of Astros County) has a new article up on Jordan Lyles, and it's well-worth your time, given Roza's proximity to Lyles through much of 2010.
Your money quote:
Lyles typically reached the 80 pitch mark by late in the 4th or early in the 5th inning, depending on how many hits he’d given up. While these concerns are all fixable (much like Castro’s throwing to second base, which in person, concerned me, but was quickly quailed upon his arrival in Houston), they remain concerns for the time being.
Can Lyles hang back in certain situations, sacrificing the strikeout for a quick groundball, thus saving his pitch count? Can his changeup become more deceptive and eventually serve as an effective out pitch? Can he add a little more loop to his breaking ball? Lyles’ underlying advantage is his expert-to-basic grasp of five pitches. If he can turn four of them into effective major league-caliber pitches, the sky is the limit.
Your money quote:
Lyles typically reached the 80 pitch mark by late in the 4th or early in the 5th inning, depending on how many hits he’d given up. While these concerns are all fixable (much like Castro’s throwing to second base, which in person, concerned me, but was quickly quailed upon his arrival in Houston), they remain concerns for the time being.
Can Lyles hang back in certain situations, sacrificing the strikeout for a quick groundball, thus saving his pitch count? Can his changeup become more deceptive and eventually serve as an effective out pitch? Can he add a little more loop to his breaking ball? Lyles’ underlying advantage is his expert-to-basic grasp of five pitches. If he can turn four of them into effective major league-caliber pitches, the sky is the limit.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
BREAKING NEWS: Some Fans, Especially Those Interviewed By A Metroplex Newspaper, Are Rangers Fans
The Fort Worth Star Telegram has an article about how, surprise! people who came to the Rangers Caravan dates are...wait for it, Rangers fans!
One Palmeiro jersey-sporting fan in Selma:
"I've been a huge Rangers fan, but the Rangers never came down here. I told those guys they've got to start coming down here more often. The Houston Astros have always controlled this area, but there are lots of Rangers fans down here."
An Austin resident:
"I'm tickled the Rangers have taken over the Round Rock Express. It's going to be a better situation because it's going to be a better brand of baseball for Round Rock fans to enjoy. I'm interested in tickets because Nolan Ryan is involved and he believes in the quality of the organization."
One C.J. Wilson jersey-sporting fan in San Antonio:
"I go to a game every year. We try and make it a tradition. I'm a Rangers fan and a Rangers fan only. You can't be an Aggies fan and a Longhorns fan. You have to stick with one team. The Rangers are my team, and I'll do what I can to see them. Look what they've accomplished."
Holy Hannah! Fans interviewed by a Metroplex newspaper at the Rangers Caravan stops are Rangers fans? CRAZY! LOOK AT HOW FAR YOU'VE COME, RANGERS! GOOD GOD! YOUR SUCCESS CAN'T BE MATCHED, AND CERTAINLY NOT EXCEEDED BY THE ASTROS! WHAT AN UNPREDICTABLE TURN OF EVENTS! A CORNUCOPIA OF SUCCESS THAT COULD NOT BE PREDICTED, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU FORGET HOW THEY JUST WENT TO THE WORLD SERIES! No, that would be preposterous. Dyed in the wool, those Hill Country Rangers fans. They've suffered enough, bless their hearts.
One Palmeiro jersey-sporting fan in Selma:
"I've been a huge Rangers fan, but the Rangers never came down here. I told those guys they've got to start coming down here more often. The Houston Astros have always controlled this area, but there are lots of Rangers fans down here."
An Austin resident:
"I'm tickled the Rangers have taken over the Round Rock Express. It's going to be a better situation because it's going to be a better brand of baseball for Round Rock fans to enjoy. I'm interested in tickets because Nolan Ryan is involved and he believes in the quality of the organization."
One C.J. Wilson jersey-sporting fan in San Antonio:
"I go to a game every year. We try and make it a tradition. I'm a Rangers fan and a Rangers fan only. You can't be an Aggies fan and a Longhorns fan. You have to stick with one team. The Rangers are my team, and I'll do what I can to see them. Look what they've accomplished."
Holy Hannah! Fans interviewed by a Metroplex newspaper at the Rangers Caravan stops are Rangers fans? CRAZY! LOOK AT HOW FAR YOU'VE COME, RANGERS! GOOD GOD! YOUR SUCCESS CAN'T BE MATCHED, AND CERTAINLY NOT EXCEEDED BY THE ASTROS! WHAT AN UNPREDICTABLE TURN OF EVENTS! A CORNUCOPIA OF SUCCESS THAT COULD NOT BE PREDICTED, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU FORGET HOW THEY JUST WENT TO THE WORLD SERIES! No, that would be preposterous. Dyed in the wool, those Hill Country Rangers fans. They've suffered enough, bless their hearts.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Keith Law's Top 10 Astros prospects
Continuing Keith Law Day, he posted his (Insider-Only, natch) Astros top ten prospects:
1. Jordan Lyles, RHP
2. Delino DeShields, Jr., CF
3. Ariel Ovando, OF
4. Austin Wates, OF
5. Tanner Bushue, RHP
6. Jiovanni Mier, SS
7. Telvin Nash, LF
8. Jonathan Villar, SS
9. Vincent Velasquez, RHP
10. J.D. Martinez, RHP
Interesting...
1. Jordan Lyles, RHP
2. Delino DeShields, Jr., CF
3. Ariel Ovando, OF
4. Austin Wates, OF
5. Tanner Bushue, RHP
6. Jiovanni Mier, SS
7. Telvin Nash, LF
8. Jonathan Villar, SS
9. Vincent Velasquez, RHP
10. J.D. Martinez, RHP
Interesting...
Keith Law: Ariel Ovando, Sleeper
Keith Law's been a busybody. And he has a new article up (Insider-Only, of course) identifying a sleeper prospect from each organization who could end up on the 2012 Top 100. The Astros' prospect is Ariel Ovando:
Outfielder Ariel Ovando has -- to use the technical term -- some "big whack" at the plate, a loose frame with room to add and already some feel for hitting.
Outfielder Ariel Ovando has -- to use the technical term -- some "big whack" at the plate, a loose frame with room to add and already some feel for hitting.
Castro starting to feel comfortable
Profile season is underway, and McTaggart caught up with Jason Castro, as he prepares for the 2011 season with his name penciled in as C1 (until J.R. Towles does his yearly Babe Ruth impression until March 31):
"I've put a lot of work in and ironed out some things mechanically. I'm in a place right now that I feel really comfortable. That's the best part is feeling comfortable up there, and that really puts you in the best place to have success."
McTaggart:
The intense workout program Castro participated in this winter was at SPARTA Performance Science, a facility used by a handful of pro athletes in which workouts are geared to the individual athlete. Castro said it's designed for him to be in top shape entering Spring Training, instead of using the spring to get in shape.
Did you know that Castro hit .070 (3x43) against LHP in 2010?
"I've put a lot of work in and ironed out some things mechanically. I'm in a place right now that I feel really comfortable. That's the best part is feeling comfortable up there, and that really puts you in the best place to have success."
McTaggart:
The intense workout program Castro participated in this winter was at SPARTA Performance Science, a facility used by a handful of pro athletes in which workouts are geared to the individual athlete. Castro said it's designed for him to be in top shape entering Spring Training, instead of using the spring to get in shape.
Did you know that Castro hit .070 (3x43) against LHP in 2010?
MLB puts the screwgee on the Astros/Red Sox exhibition game
Sure, it's an exhibition game that means absolutely nothing. But the people who show up, and I would bet that an exhibition game against the Red Sox in March will be better attended than a regular season game in September, would be spending real money. So when MLB decided to schedule regular season games throughout March 31, the Astros and Red Sox were forced to cancel the March 31 exhibition at Minute Maid, because they couldn't find a window around the regular season games.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Payroll: $80m-ish
Brian McTaggart has your payroll estimate for 2011. Carlos Lee will account for 23.75% of the Astros payroll. /tears up
Astros agree to terms with Towles, Johnson
McTaggart tells us that the Astros have agreed to terms with Chris Johnson and - yes - J.R. Towles $424,000.
Yahoo gazes into their crystal ball and finds mountains and mountains of crap
Over at Big League Stew, Alex Remington was asked "How many games will the 2011 Astros win?"
Quoting Dan Szymborski:
Of the players predicted to make up the Astros' 25-man roster, Szymborski only sees four players likely to achieve production above league average: hitters Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee, and starting pitchers Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers.
So this isn't going very well.
The Astros don't have a single player as good as Pirate center fielder Andrew McCutchen, and they might not have anyone as good as third baseman Pedro Alvarez, either. After years of Pirate dominance of the NL Central cellar, the race for the bottom might finally be competitive in 2011.
So what's the verdict?
I'm predicting a 64-98 record.
Yowza!
Quoting Dan Szymborski:
Of the players predicted to make up the Astros' 25-man roster, Szymborski only sees four players likely to achieve production above league average: hitters Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee, and starting pitchers Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers.
So this isn't going very well.
The Astros don't have a single player as good as Pirate center fielder Andrew McCutchen, and they might not have anyone as good as third baseman Pedro Alvarez, either. After years of Pirate dominance of the NL Central cellar, the race for the bottom might finally be competitive in 2011.
So what's the verdict?
I'm predicting a 64-98 record.
Yowza!
Wandy vs. the Big Inning
Anecdotally, we know about Wandy's tendency to give up the big inning. So let's see if we can quantify it, shall we?
First, what do you call a Big Inning? Let's arbitrarily set it at allowing three runs in one inning. Let's go.
Big Innings in 2010: 10
April 6 vs. SF (L 0-3)
Innings 1-5: 5H/0ER, 3K:1BB, 19 batters faced
6th inning: 2H/3ER, 1K:3BB, 8 batters faced
Wandy walked the first two batters on four straight balls (that's right, eight balls to open the inning), gave up a single, groundout, sac fly, single, and another walk before striking out Barry Zito to end the inning.
April 12 @ StL (L 0-5)
Innings 1-2: 3H/1ER, 0K:0BB, 8 batters faced
3rd inning: 3H/3ER, 0K:0BB, 6 batters faced
Wandy got Adam Wainwright to flyout to lead off the inning. But consecutive singles from Schumaker and Ludwick set up a three-run homer from Pujols.
May 6 vs. Ari (L 3-6)
Innings 1-2: 3H/1ER, 3K:1BB, 9 batters faced
3rd inning: 4H/3ER, 0K:0BB, 7 batters faced
This was a terrible inning. He led off the inning by hitting Kelly Johnson, then a single to Abreu, passed ball, single, sac fly, single, and single.
May 12 @ StL (W 9-6)
Innings 1-5: 1H/1ER, 3K:1BB, 18 batters faced
6th inning: 4H/4ER, 0K:1BB, 8 batters faced
After cruising through the first five innings, allowing only an unearned run, Schumaker led off the inning with a groundout. Then Ludwick singled, Pujols doubled, Holliday walked, Freese hit a ground-rule double, LaRue got a run-scoring groundout, and Stavinoha singled before Brendan Ryan ended the inning.
May 28 @ CIN (L 6-15)
Innings 1-2: 3H/2ER, 2K:1BB, 10 batters faced
3rd-4th innings: 5H/6ER, 3K:1BB, 10 batters faced
This was one of Wandy's worst starts of the season, lasting just 3.1IP and giving up 8ER. Cairo singled to lead off the inning, Philips struck out, Rolen doubled, and Gomes homered. He got Bruce and Stubbs to strike out looking, so he came back out for the 4th, gave up a lead-off single to Hanigan, a single to Cabrera, and walked Cairo. Chacin replaced Wandy, and Chacin allowed all three runs he inherited to score.
June 12 @ NYY (L 3-9)
Innings 1-2: 2H/1ER, 2K:1BB, 9 batters faced
3rd inning: 3H/5ER, 2K:2BB, 8 batters faced
Wandy walked Jeter to lead off the inning, then gave up a single to Swisher, walked Teixeira, a single to Cano, and Posada hit a grand slam to bring them all home. Wandy actually made it through the 5th before walking Cervelli and Granderson to lead off the 6th. Fulchino came in to clean it up, and gave up a homer to Jeter, bringing in Cervelli and Granderson.
June 18 @ TEX (L 3-9)
Innings 1-2: 0H/0ER, 0K:1BB, 7 batters faced
3rd inning: 4H/6ER, 0K:3BB, 10 batters faced
This game marked the end of Bad Wandy, he was dramatically better from this point forward in the season (obviously, as seven of his first 14 starts qualify as a Big Inning start). However, Borbon grounded out to start the inning, but then Feldman - the pitcher - cracked a double, Andrus walked, Young grounded out, but Kinsler and Vlad walked, Hamilton got a two-run single, Smoak got a two-run double, and Matt Treanor got an RBI single before Borbon lined out to end the inning.
July 19 @ CHC (W 11-5)
Innings 1-5: 4H/2ER, 2K:1BB, 18 batters faced
6th inning: 4H/3ER, 0K:0BB, 6 batters faced
Tyler Colvin homered to lead off the inning, Castro grounded out, Lee doubled, and Ramirez hit a two-run shot. He gave up a single to Soriano two batters later, but Soriano ran himself into an inning-ending out.
Sept 11 v LAD (L 3-6)
Innings 1-3: 0H/0ER, 5K:2BB, 11 batters faced
4th inning: 4H/3ER, 2K:0BB, 7 batters faced
Casey Blake homered to start the inning, and then Wandy got two of the next three batters out. Johnson singled, stole 2nd, and Ellis brought him home with another single. It doesn't fit the mold of his previous starts in this list, but it's still three earned runs in an inning. Wandy would go on to pitch another three strong innings.
Sept 17 vs. CIN (W 5-3)
Innings 1-5: 0H/0ER, 8K:5BB, 20 batters faced
6th inning: 3H/3ER, 2K:1BB, 7 batters faced
Votto doubled to lead off the 6th, Rolen walked, and Gomes tagged him for a 3-run homer. He did allow another single to Stubbs, but got out of the inning without any other damage.
-
So that sums up ten starts in which Wandy gave up 3+ ER in one inning. There are a couple of trends we can notice from this list:
*Five of the ten starts came against NL Central opponents. (2xSTL, 2xCIN, 1xCHC)
*Six starts were on the road, four at home
*The Astros lost seven of these games, though that says more about the offense as it does Wandy.
*The lead-off batter got on base in seven of the ten starts
*Of those seven starts, three started with an extra-base hit (the last three, actually). Two started with a walk, one with an HBP.
*In every instance, the Big Inning came on the 2nd time through the order, and generally the damage was done by the heart of the order.
*This makes sense as the highest OPSa Wandy posted was in the 2nd time through the order. Also keep in mind that the lead-off batter in the inning through the season had a .257/.335/.402 line.
What does it all mean? Well for one, it means that there's no way I'm going through every inning to evaluate more data. Second, it shows how ineffective Wandy was in the first half of the season that seven of his first 14 starts fell into this category, compared to just three of his last eighteen. Third, it's obvious to say that when Wandy doesn't allow a 3+ run inning, he does good. That's blatantly obvious - and borderline asinine. But it does show that Wandy was able to keep his composure much better in the 2nd half of the season. And gives us a little more ammunition that his 3yr deal is probably, for the time being, a good thing.
First, what do you call a Big Inning? Let's arbitrarily set it at allowing three runs in one inning. Let's go.
Big Innings in 2010: 10
April 6 vs. SF (L 0-3)
Innings 1-5: 5H/0ER, 3K:1BB, 19 batters faced
6th inning: 2H/3ER, 1K:3BB, 8 batters faced
Wandy walked the first two batters on four straight balls (that's right, eight balls to open the inning), gave up a single, groundout, sac fly, single, and another walk before striking out Barry Zito to end the inning.
April 12 @ StL (L 0-5)
Innings 1-2: 3H/1ER, 0K:0BB, 8 batters faced
3rd inning: 3H/3ER, 0K:0BB, 6 batters faced
Wandy got Adam Wainwright to flyout to lead off the inning. But consecutive singles from Schumaker and Ludwick set up a three-run homer from Pujols.
May 6 vs. Ari (L 3-6)
Innings 1-2: 3H/1ER, 3K:1BB, 9 batters faced
3rd inning: 4H/3ER, 0K:0BB, 7 batters faced
This was a terrible inning. He led off the inning by hitting Kelly Johnson, then a single to Abreu, passed ball, single, sac fly, single, and single.
May 12 @ StL (W 9-6)
Innings 1-5: 1H/1ER, 3K:1BB, 18 batters faced
6th inning: 4H/4ER, 0K:1BB, 8 batters faced
After cruising through the first five innings, allowing only an unearned run, Schumaker led off the inning with a groundout. Then Ludwick singled, Pujols doubled, Holliday walked, Freese hit a ground-rule double, LaRue got a run-scoring groundout, and Stavinoha singled before Brendan Ryan ended the inning.
May 28 @ CIN (L 6-15)
Innings 1-2: 3H/2ER, 2K:1BB, 10 batters faced
3rd-4th innings: 5H/6ER, 3K:1BB, 10 batters faced
This was one of Wandy's worst starts of the season, lasting just 3.1IP and giving up 8ER. Cairo singled to lead off the inning, Philips struck out, Rolen doubled, and Gomes homered. He got Bruce and Stubbs to strike out looking, so he came back out for the 4th, gave up a lead-off single to Hanigan, a single to Cabrera, and walked Cairo. Chacin replaced Wandy, and Chacin allowed all three runs he inherited to score.
June 12 @ NYY (L 3-9)
Innings 1-2: 2H/1ER, 2K:1BB, 9 batters faced
3rd inning: 3H/5ER, 2K:2BB, 8 batters faced
Wandy walked Jeter to lead off the inning, then gave up a single to Swisher, walked Teixeira, a single to Cano, and Posada hit a grand slam to bring them all home. Wandy actually made it through the 5th before walking Cervelli and Granderson to lead off the 6th. Fulchino came in to clean it up, and gave up a homer to Jeter, bringing in Cervelli and Granderson.
June 18 @ TEX (L 3-9)
Innings 1-2: 0H/0ER, 0K:1BB, 7 batters faced
3rd inning: 4H/6ER, 0K:3BB, 10 batters faced
This game marked the end of Bad Wandy, he was dramatically better from this point forward in the season (obviously, as seven of his first 14 starts qualify as a Big Inning start). However, Borbon grounded out to start the inning, but then Feldman - the pitcher - cracked a double, Andrus walked, Young grounded out, but Kinsler and Vlad walked, Hamilton got a two-run single, Smoak got a two-run double, and Matt Treanor got an RBI single before Borbon lined out to end the inning.
July 19 @ CHC (W 11-5)
Innings 1-5: 4H/2ER, 2K:1BB, 18 batters faced
6th inning: 4H/3ER, 0K:0BB, 6 batters faced
Tyler Colvin homered to lead off the inning, Castro grounded out, Lee doubled, and Ramirez hit a two-run shot. He gave up a single to Soriano two batters later, but Soriano ran himself into an inning-ending out.
Sept 11 v LAD (L 3-6)
Innings 1-3: 0H/0ER, 5K:2BB, 11 batters faced
4th inning: 4H/3ER, 2K:0BB, 7 batters faced
Casey Blake homered to start the inning, and then Wandy got two of the next three batters out. Johnson singled, stole 2nd, and Ellis brought him home with another single. It doesn't fit the mold of his previous starts in this list, but it's still three earned runs in an inning. Wandy would go on to pitch another three strong innings.
Sept 17 vs. CIN (W 5-3)
Innings 1-5: 0H/0ER, 8K:5BB, 20 batters faced
6th inning: 3H/3ER, 2K:1BB, 7 batters faced
Votto doubled to lead off the 6th, Rolen walked, and Gomes tagged him for a 3-run homer. He did allow another single to Stubbs, but got out of the inning without any other damage.
-
So that sums up ten starts in which Wandy gave up 3+ ER in one inning. There are a couple of trends we can notice from this list:
*Five of the ten starts came against NL Central opponents. (2xSTL, 2xCIN, 1xCHC)
*Six starts were on the road, four at home
*The Astros lost seven of these games, though that says more about the offense as it does Wandy.
*The lead-off batter got on base in seven of the ten starts
*Of those seven starts, three started with an extra-base hit (the last three, actually). Two started with a walk, one with an HBP.
*In every instance, the Big Inning came on the 2nd time through the order, and generally the damage was done by the heart of the order.
*This makes sense as the highest OPSa Wandy posted was in the 2nd time through the order. Also keep in mind that the lead-off batter in the inning through the season had a .257/.335/.402 line.
What does it all mean? Well for one, it means that there's no way I'm going through every inning to evaluate more data. Second, it shows how ineffective Wandy was in the first half of the season that seven of his first 14 starts fell into this category, compared to just three of his last eighteen. Third, it's obvious to say that when Wandy doesn't allow a 3+ run inning, he does good. That's blatantly obvious - and borderline asinine. But it does show that Wandy was able to keep his composure much better in the 2nd half of the season. And gives us a little more ammunition that his 3yr deal is probably, for the time being, a good thing.
Keith Law: Lyles is #42
Keith Law's (Insider-Only) Top 100 prospect list was released today, and our boy Jordan Lyles clocks in at #42.
We're always hesitant to just post everything from a pay-site (yesterday's Organizational Ranking post was an exception, because it was only about six words long), so we'll give you the meat of his Lyles comments:
His command of his fastball and changeup is above-average, but he's still working on his feel for the two breaking pitches, and it's hard to project him as a No. 1 with only the change as a potential out pitch. However, the Astros surely would take him as a future No. 2 who's on the cusp of the majors at age 20, the best pitching prospect their system has produced since the days of Roy Oswalt.
Last year, Law ranked Lyles #60, and had this to say:
With the potential for him to add velocity, given his 6-foot-4 frame as he approaches the legal drinking age, Lyles could become a No. 2 starter or more for a team that hasn't developed anything close to that since Roy Oswalt.
Falling off Law's list from last year is Jason Castro (#65) and Jiovanni Mier (#94).
We're always hesitant to just post everything from a pay-site (yesterday's Organizational Ranking post was an exception, because it was only about six words long), so we'll give you the meat of his Lyles comments:
His command of his fastball and changeup is above-average, but he's still working on his feel for the two breaking pitches, and it's hard to project him as a No. 1 with only the change as a potential out pitch. However, the Astros surely would take him as a future No. 2 who's on the cusp of the majors at age 20, the best pitching prospect their system has produced since the days of Roy Oswalt.
Last year, Law ranked Lyles #60, and had this to say:
With the potential for him to add velocity, given his 6-foot-4 frame as he approaches the legal drinking age, Lyles could become a No. 2 starter or more for a team that hasn't developed anything close to that since Roy Oswalt.
Falling off Law's list from last year is Jason Castro (#65) and Jiovanni Mier (#94).
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Let's look at how much money Wandy will make!
Alyson Footer has the breakdown of Wandy's contract:
Signing bonus: $1.5m
2011: $7m
2012: $10m
2013: $13m
2014: $13m (vesting or club option)
Signing bonus: $1.5m
2011: $7m
2012: $10m
2013: $13m
2014: $13m (vesting or club option)
Hardball Talk's Astros Depth-Chart
Hardball Talk has their version of what the Astros' Depth-Chart looks like (click the link, I'm not re-posting the entire thing. Tell me what you think. If you're like me, this little nugget caught your eye:
Bogusevic was a disappointment again last season and it no longer seems likely that he’ll turn into even a legitimate fourth outfielder.
I'm just curious as to what about 2010 made Bogusevic a disappointment. Again. His Triple-A OPS rose 71 points. He only played in a handful of Major League games. The Astros have Carlos Lee's Immovable Contract and two outfielders who are - by all accounts - productive. What expectations could anyone possibly have about an outfielder who has only been an outfielder for two seasons (heading into 2010)?
Read this article at your peril. If you are pregnant, or have high blood pressure, or are taking Viagra, you might just want to leave it alone.
Bogusevic was a disappointment again last season and it no longer seems likely that he’ll turn into even a legitimate fourth outfielder.
I'm just curious as to what about 2010 made Bogusevic a disappointment. Again. His Triple-A OPS rose 71 points. He only played in a handful of Major League games. The Astros have Carlos Lee's Immovable Contract and two outfielders who are - by all accounts - productive. What expectations could anyone possibly have about an outfielder who has only been an outfielder for two seasons (heading into 2010)?
Read this article at your peril. If you are pregnant, or have high blood pressure, or are taking Viagra, you might just want to leave it alone.
Astros rank #27th in Keith Law's Organizational Rankings
Keith Law posted his (Insider-only) Organizational Rankings. Your Houston Astros are 27th:
The Astros are slowly getting better through the draft and some dabbling in Latin America, but it sure would have been nice to see them get more in return for Roy Oswalt.
Yes. Yes it would have been nice to see them get more in return for Roy. Last year the Astros ranked 28th.
The Astros are slowly getting better through the draft and some dabbling in Latin America, but it sure would have been nice to see them get more in return for Roy Oswalt.
Yes. Yes it would have been nice to see them get more in return for Roy. Last year the Astros ranked 28th.
Lyles is #31
Jordan Lyles was named the 31st overall top prospect for 2011 in MLB's annual Top 50 list. He's the only Astro on the list. How did the NL Central compare?
Well, here's the number of prospects, by team:
Reds: 3 (Aroldis Chapman - #6; Devin Mesoraco - #45; Yonder Alonso - #49)
Cubs: 1 (Brett Jackson - #46)
Cardinals: 1 (Shelby Miller - #20)
Pirates: 1 (Taillon - #18)
Brewers: 0
Well, here's the number of prospects, by team:
Reds: 3 (Aroldis Chapman - #6; Devin Mesoraco - #45; Yonder Alonso - #49)
Cubs: 1 (Brett Jackson - #46)
Cardinals: 1 (Shelby Miller - #20)
Pirates: 1 (Taillon - #18)
Brewers: 0
Pence goes to arbitration
So the Astros were able to trade or settle all of their arbitration-eligible players, except for Hunter Pence, who will head to a hearing next month, where a judge will determine if he gets the $6.9m he wants, or the $5.15m the Astros want to pay him.
Wade:
"It doesn't say anything about how we feel about the player. It's the mechanism that's in place in our game when two parties can't get together and come to a negotiated settlement. There is no reflection on how we feel about Hunter, or I'm assuming on how Hunter feels about us."
Pence didn't seem to mind the development:
This is just part of the business side of the game.
Wade:
"It doesn't say anything about how we feel about the player. It's the mechanism that's in place in our game when two parties can't get together and come to a negotiated settlement. There is no reflection on how we feel about Hunter, or I'm assuming on how Hunter feels about us."
Pence didn't seem to mind the development:
This is just part of the business side of the game.
Astros sign Wandy to big ol' deal
So by now you've already heard or read that the Astros signed Wandy to a three-year, $34 million deal with a 4th-year option that could increase the total deal to $44.5m.
First, some reaction:
Wandy:
“I’ve been waiting for it for a long time. I feel at home here with the Houston Astros.”
Wade:
“On a lot of different fronts, I think it’s the right thing for everyone. We have one of the top lefthanded pitchers in baseball going out for us every fifth day for the next three years — hopefully the next four and beyond.”
Justice:
He doesn't have the kind of 97-mph stuff that sends scouts running to phone their bosses. That's a good thing for the Astros. Otherwise, they couldn't have afforded him and he'd be pitching for the Yankees...Actually, the Yankees would've given up on Rodriguez years ago because patience isn't their strength and he has required plenty.
FanGraphs:
...Given everything surrounding the organization – a lack of talent on the field, on the farm, and, at least given many of Ed Wade’s recent moves, in the front office – as well as Rodriguez’s relatively advanced age, the odds are long that the Astros will get anything of real value for their money or years.
First of all, may I jog your memory back to January 19, when the County Clerk said the following:
I'm guessing that the numbers would start at 3yrs/$33m.
So. Boom. Anyhow, that link will take you back to our thoughts on Wandy's progression, and how Carl Pavano is the most-similar to Wandy, according to Baseball-Reference. In Pavano's Age 32-34 seasons (2008-10), he posted the following total line:
72 starts, 35-25, 4.49 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 279K:86BB.
Comparing Wandy's 2008-10 to Pavano:
90 starts, 34-31, 3.36 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 121 ERA+, 502K:175BB.
But let's think about this from a financial/long-term standpoint.
This makes Wandy the second-highest paid player on the Astros in 2011 (behind Carlos Lee, obviously), tied with Brett Myers if we have the contract details straight. But it also means that the Astros have their 1-2 punch for the next two years, possibly three (with Myers' 2013 option). Also, Bud Norris won't hit free agency until 2016, and J.A. Happ until 2015. The Astros have their rotation set for the next several years, especially with everyone expecting Lyles to do what he does, either later in the season.
So regardless of how much you like the deal, and FanGraphs - predictably - doesn't, it brings some stability to the rotation. It's possible the Astros are over-committed on the rotation. Because what happens if Fernando Abad kills it, or should Dallas Keuchel turns into the player that I hope he does, these commitments could hinder their progression. Right now the Astros have quantity, we'll just have to see about the quality.
First, some reaction:
Wandy:
“I’ve been waiting for it for a long time. I feel at home here with the Houston Astros.”
Wade:
“On a lot of different fronts, I think it’s the right thing for everyone. We have one of the top lefthanded pitchers in baseball going out for us every fifth day for the next three years — hopefully the next four and beyond.”
Justice:
He doesn't have the kind of 97-mph stuff that sends scouts running to phone their bosses. That's a good thing for the Astros. Otherwise, they couldn't have afforded him and he'd be pitching for the Yankees...Actually, the Yankees would've given up on Rodriguez years ago because patience isn't their strength and he has required plenty.
FanGraphs:
...Given everything surrounding the organization – a lack of talent on the field, on the farm, and, at least given many of Ed Wade’s recent moves, in the front office – as well as Rodriguez’s relatively advanced age, the odds are long that the Astros will get anything of real value for their money or years.
First of all, may I jog your memory back to January 19, when the County Clerk said the following:
I'm guessing that the numbers would start at 3yrs/$33m.
So. Boom. Anyhow, that link will take you back to our thoughts on Wandy's progression, and how Carl Pavano is the most-similar to Wandy, according to Baseball-Reference. In Pavano's Age 32-34 seasons (2008-10), he posted the following total line:
72 starts, 35-25, 4.49 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 279K:86BB.
Comparing Wandy's 2008-10 to Pavano:
90 starts, 34-31, 3.36 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 121 ERA+, 502K:175BB.
But let's think about this from a financial/long-term standpoint.
This makes Wandy the second-highest paid player on the Astros in 2011 (behind Carlos Lee, obviously), tied with Brett Myers if we have the contract details straight. But it also means that the Astros have their 1-2 punch for the next two years, possibly three (with Myers' 2013 option). Also, Bud Norris won't hit free agency until 2016, and J.A. Happ until 2015. The Astros have their rotation set for the next several years, especially with everyone expecting Lyles to do what he does, either later in the season.
So regardless of how much you like the deal, and FanGraphs - predictably - doesn't, it brings some stability to the rotation. It's possible the Astros are over-committed on the rotation. Because what happens if Fernando Abad kills it, or should Dallas Keuchel turns into the player that I hope he does, these commitments could hinder their progression. Right now the Astros have quantity, we'll just have to see about the quality.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Oklahoma City has a new play-by-play guy
And it's J.P. Shadrick, formerly of the Double-A Jacksonville Suns.
This affects the approximately two of you Astros County citizens who live in Oklahoma City, but we love everybody.
This affects the approximately two of you Astros County citizens who live in Oklahoma City, but we love everybody.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Jose Carlos Thompson to Major League camp
Recent signee Jose Carlos Thompson has been invited to Major League Camp where, according to Zach Levine, he'll be considered for 2B/SS jobs in the minors. Where could the 23-year old play this season?
Oklahoma City:
It's reasonable to assume that whomever doesn't win the 2B1/2B2 or SS1/SS2 jobs (Matt Downs, Tommy Manzella, Oswaldo Navarro, Wladimir Sutil, etc) will be in Triple-A. So it's fairly unlikely that Oklahoma City is his destination.
Corpus:
Thompson would be a little young for Corpus (last year's average age for position players: 24.7), but last year's GP leader at 2B was German Duran. And he was recently released, and the primary starter at 2B for Lancaster in 2010 was Albert Cartwright, who was traded to Philadelphia. Jose Altuve saw some time towards the end of Lancaster's season, but I imagine that the Astros will want to see him in a full season at High-A (with him being 21 this season). Corpus is our pick for Thompson.
Lancaster:
The lowest level I can see Thompson playing at, but Brandon Wikoff will likely get another year at Lancaster at SS, and we've already talked about Altuve in Lancaster.
Oklahoma City:
It's reasonable to assume that whomever doesn't win the 2B1/2B2 or SS1/SS2 jobs (Matt Downs, Tommy Manzella, Oswaldo Navarro, Wladimir Sutil, etc) will be in Triple-A. So it's fairly unlikely that Oklahoma City is his destination.
Corpus:
Thompson would be a little young for Corpus (last year's average age for position players: 24.7), but last year's GP leader at 2B was German Duran. And he was recently released, and the primary starter at 2B for Lancaster in 2010 was Albert Cartwright, who was traded to Philadelphia. Jose Altuve saw some time towards the end of Lancaster's season, but I imagine that the Astros will want to see him in a full season at High-A (with him being 21 this season). Corpus is our pick for Thompson.
Lancaster:
The lowest level I can see Thompson playing at, but Brandon Wikoff will likely get another year at Lancaster at SS, and we've already talked about Altuve in Lancaster.
Wandy has a Case to Watch
Over at MLBTR, they have a post on the Ten Arbitration Cases to Watch this off-season, and good ol' Wandy clocks in at #4:
Rodriguez's $10.25MM asking price seems high until you realize how few arbitration eligible pitchers have comparable big league experience (the Astros offered $8MM). Rodriguez is just 15 innings shy of 1,000 for his career and his ERA hasn't surpassed 3.60 in any of the past three seasons. The lefty's 985 innings are 246 more than Erik Bedard had after 2008, the season that set Bedard up for a $7.75MM payday. Few arbitration eligible pitchers earn eight-figure deals, but few have as much big league experience and success as Rodriguez.
Rodriguez's $10.25MM asking price seems high until you realize how few arbitration eligible pitchers have comparable big league experience (the Astros offered $8MM). Rodriguez is just 15 innings shy of 1,000 for his career and his ERA hasn't surpassed 3.60 in any of the past three seasons. The lefty's 985 innings are 246 more than Erik Bedard had after 2008, the season that set Bedard up for a $7.75MM payday. Few arbitration eligible pitchers earn eight-figure deals, but few have as much big league experience and success as Rodriguez.
Will the DWIs never stop?
He's not an Astro anymore, but former Astro Troy Patton was popped for suspicion of DWI on Saturday night.
This is just another sad brick in the wall of Astros/former Astros infamy, in which lawlessness runs rampant through anyone in the organization, or anyone ever associated with the organization..../sarcasm. /NotThatDWIisFunny.
This is just another sad brick in the wall of Astros/former Astros infamy, in which lawlessness runs rampant through anyone in the organization, or anyone ever associated with the organization..../sarcasm. /NotThatDWIisFunny.
Astros to Cantu: Thanks, but no thanks
The Examiner talked to Jorge Cantu and then the Astros, just as suddenly, stopped talking to Jorge Cantu.
Cantu:
"We were really trying with Houston, but talks have just ceased with them, which is unfortunate."
Cantu:
"We were really trying with Houston, but talks have just ceased with them, which is unfortunate."
Astros sign another 2B
Missed this over the weekend, but the Astros have signed 2B Jose Carlos Thompson for $250,000. SI's Melissa Sagura points out that he's Aroldis Chapman's "BFF," and that he hit .440/.484/.729 at Western Oklahoma State. Western Oklahoma State's website lists Kurt Russell as their head coach, and facts about the 2009 team. FYI.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Cesar Carrillo arrested
Astros pitcher Cesar Carrillo was arrested early this morning at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino.
Says the St. Petersburg Times:
Casino police charged Carrillo with trespassing after a warning at 3 a.m. Details about what led to that warning were not available. Carrillo, 26, was booked into the Hillsborough County Jail and later released on $500 bail.
There's an updated version of the linked article that includes:
Casino police charged Carrillo with trespassing after a warning at 3 a.m. Seminole Tribe spokesman Gary Bitner said Carrillo left the Tampa casino when initially warned but came back 15 minutes later, so officers detained him. Bitner declined to disclose what prompted the incident.
The Astros claimed Carrillo off waivers in September.
Says the St. Petersburg Times:
Casino police charged Carrillo with trespassing after a warning at 3 a.m. Details about what led to that warning were not available. Carrillo, 26, was booked into the Hillsborough County Jail and later released on $500 bail.
There's an updated version of the linked article that includes:
Casino police charged Carrillo with trespassing after a warning at 3 a.m. Seminole Tribe spokesman Gary Bitner said Carrillo left the Tampa casino when initially warned but came back 15 minutes later, so officers detained him. Bitner declined to disclose what prompted the incident.
The Astros claimed Carrillo off waivers in September.
Here's your Astros mini-camp roster
Zach Levine has your mini-camp roster, taking place in advance of Spring Training.
What time is it? Time for Norris to step up
Brad Mills told Bud Norris that it's time for Norris to grab a bigger role on the Astros:
"Today, I told him it's time for him to step up. He's got all the ability in the world. We know that, I think he knows that. We don't want him to put pressure on himself. But at the same time, there reaches a point when a guy really needs to step up. He had one full season at the Major League level last year. It's time for him to start doing that."
More Mills:
"So you have to kind of measure that and say, 'We want you to develop but you have to pitch like a Major Leaguer.' So there's a balance there. You want to push him but at the same time understand. You might spend a little more time with him, but it's time to get after it now. At the level we're at, at the level he's at, it's time to get after it and pitch like he's capable."
"Today, I told him it's time for him to step up. He's got all the ability in the world. We know that, I think he knows that. We don't want him to put pressure on himself. But at the same time, there reaches a point when a guy really needs to step up. He had one full season at the Major League level last year. It's time for him to start doing that."
More Mills:
"So you have to kind of measure that and say, 'We want you to develop but you have to pitch like a Major Leaguer.' So there's a balance there. You want to push him but at the same time understand. You might spend a little more time with him, but it's time to get after it now. At the level we're at, at the level he's at, it's time to get after it and pitch like he's capable."
You cannot hit Fernando Abad
And neither can Estrellas de Oriente, since Abad threw six no-hit innings against them in Game 3 of the Best-of-Nine finals.
And get this:
After going 3-0 in 10 regular-season Winter Ball appearances, Abad improved to 4-0 in the playoffs. He's pitched 19 scoreless innings, allowing only eight hits and three walks while striking out 17.
And get this:
After going 3-0 in 10 regular-season Winter Ball appearances, Abad improved to 4-0 in the playoffs. He's pitched 19 scoreless innings, allowing only eight hits and three walks while striking out 17.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Former Astro Tranzactionz
So...the Mets signed Tim Byrdak and the Rays signed 2010 Express member Jonah Bayliss, to a minor-league contract.
Lyles listed as 10th-best RHP prospect
Jonathan Mayo listed his 10 best RHP prospects, and for once, Jordan Lyles is on the list - at #10.
The Astros seem to be turning things around with a youth movement as a once-somnambulant farm system is starting to produce players. Next up could be Lyles, who is only 20 years old. He's got a three-pitch mix --fastball, breaking ball, changeup --and in many ways his secondary stuff is better than the fastball. But the heater and the other pitches get better grades because he commands them so well and he's got a very good feel for pitching. He's in the No. 5 starter mix in Houston, but even if he goes down to Triple-A to start the year, Astros fans should see him in 2011.
The Astros seem to be turning things around with a youth movement as a once-somnambulant farm system is starting to produce players. Next up could be Lyles, who is only 20 years old. He's got a three-pitch mix --fastball, breaking ball, changeup --and in many ways his secondary stuff is better than the fastball. But the heater and the other pitches get better grades because he commands them so well and he's got a very good feel for pitching. He's in the No. 5 starter mix in Houston, but even if he goes down to Triple-A to start the year, Astros fans should see him in 2011.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
What - Drayton doesn't love Astros County?
So Rich Malley interviewed Alyson Footer and there was an interesting exchange:
What kind of relationship do you have with the Astros fan sites?
Well, we like them. We are pro fan blogs. We have three main ones in Houston.
I’m a Crawfish Boxes guy.
We like them. Drayton (team owner Drayton McLane) really likes them. So when Drayton likes them, we like them. (laughs)
What? Run-DMc doesn't like Astros County? This is some bull crap!
In all seriousness, congratulations to our friends at TCB for the high-profile shout-out (though we burn with envy). It's always nice to know that management is "pro fan blog," and that is said with the distinct possibility that Astros County isn't one of the three main ones.
What kind of relationship do you have with the Astros fan sites?
Well, we like them. We are pro fan blogs. We have three main ones in Houston.
I’m a Crawfish Boxes guy.
We like them. Drayton (team owner Drayton McLane) really likes them. So when Drayton likes them, we like them. (laughs)
What? Run-DMc doesn't like Astros County? This is some bull crap!
In all seriousness, congratulations to our friends at TCB for the high-profile shout-out (though we burn with envy). It's always nice to know that management is "pro fan blog," and that is said with the distinct possibility that Astros County isn't one of the three main ones.
Lance was just like us
We're about to institute a moratorium on the Lance stories, just because he is now dead to us. But this article is pretty good. And your money quote from Berkman, read the first sixteen words, and then stop. It's better that way.
"For most of my career, I couldn't stand the Cardinals. I basically hated the organization's guts -- in a good way. In a fun way. It's more just a healthy respect, I should say. But that was part of what drove me here, too. I think so much of this organization and so much of the people, from [manager Tony La Russa] to his coaching staff to the players that have been around and I've competed against for so many years. I couldn't think of a better place to be."
"For most of my career, I couldn't stand the Cardinals. I basically hated the organization's guts -- in a good way. In a fun way. It's more just a healthy respect, I should say. But that was part of what drove me here, too. I think so much of this organization and so much of the people, from [manager Tony La Russa] to his coaching staff to the players that have been around and I've competed against for so many years. I couldn't think of a better place to be."
Sporting News: The Astros had the 4th-best offseason...in the NL Central
According to Stan McNeal and the Sporting News, the Astros had the 4th-best offseason of all of the National League Central:
Judging by its offseason acquisitions, Houston isn't convinced its strong finish means it is ready to contend. The Astros made two lineup changes that can be considered marginal upgrades. They signed utilityman Bill Hall to play second base and traded for a shortstop, Clint Barmes, who lost his everyday job at second base in Colorado. They also brought in lefthanded starter Ryan Rowland-Smith, discarded by the Mariners after a dismal 2010, and unloaded reliever Matt Lindstrom.
And then your pre-Spring Training prediction:
Expect the Reds and Cardinals to lead the way, with the Brewers coming fast and Cubs closing steadily. The Astros could take another step forward but lack the depth of the contenders. The Pirates will need a lot to go right to end their record streak of consecutive losing seasons at 18.
Judging by its offseason acquisitions, Houston isn't convinced its strong finish means it is ready to contend. The Astros made two lineup changes that can be considered marginal upgrades. They signed utilityman Bill Hall to play second base and traded for a shortstop, Clint Barmes, who lost his everyday job at second base in Colorado. They also brought in lefthanded starter Ryan Rowland-Smith, discarded by the Mariners after a dismal 2010, and unloaded reliever Matt Lindstrom.
And then your pre-Spring Training prediction:
Expect the Reds and Cardinals to lead the way, with the Brewers coming fast and Cubs closing steadily. The Astros could take another step forward but lack the depth of the contenders. The Pirates will need a lot to go right to end their record streak of consecutive losing seasons at 18.
Bogusevic at 1B?
Due to Bogusevic's 32 games at 1B for Round Rock in 2010, Ed Wade would be comfortable with him playing 1B for the Astros, should things not go according to plan with Wallace.
Astros will pick 11th in June
So, it's apparently now official, the Astros will be picking 11th in the 2011 June Draft.
This is the third time in the last four years the Astros will have a pick in the first half of the round. For the past ten drafts, the Astros have averaged picking 18.6 in the draft.
This is the third time in the last four years the Astros will have a pick in the first half of the round. For the past ten drafts, the Astros have averaged picking 18.6 in the draft.
Astros preview, via Brewers blog
Bernies's Crew, one of our favorite Brewers blogs, posted their 2011 Astros preview, and it's in-depth, and well worth a read.
Here's your closing shot:
I'll say this: their offense features four wild cards in Carlos Lee, Bill Hall, Clint Barmes, and Brett Wallace. Their pitching staff does not look strong on paper, but could surprise some people during the actual games; how does a 30-50 run improvement on offense and 20 run improvement on pitching/defense sound? We'll say the club looks like a 651 RS / 709 RA team -- better than 2010, but they'll have to rely on their efficiency once again to surprise their opponents.
Here's your closing shot:
I'll say this: their offense features four wild cards in Carlos Lee, Bill Hall, Clint Barmes, and Brett Wallace. Their pitching staff does not look strong on paper, but could surprise some people during the actual games; how does a 30-50 run improvement on offense and 20 run improvement on pitching/defense sound? We'll say the club looks like a 651 RS / 709 RA team -- better than 2010, but they'll have to rely on their efficiency once again to surprise their opponents.
Mills is flirting with Lyles
The Oklahoman's Ryan Aber has an article on Jordan Lyles this morning, as part of the Caravan tour.
Lyles:
“I don’t have a timeline for when I’d like to or anything. It’s just whenever they think I’m ready. I’ll just keep working toward that.”
Mills:
“He’s pretty special. I’m looking forward to what he’s going to bring to the major league club on a very, very, very short time period.”
Lyles:
“I don’t have a timeline for when I’d like to or anything. It’s just whenever they think I’m ready. I’ll just keep working toward that.”
Mills:
“He’s pretty special. I’m looking forward to what he’s going to bring to the major league club on a very, very, very short time period.”
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Clemens expects to be 1B3
So Koby Clemens is invited to Big League Camp for Spring Training in about a month or so, and he's still expecting to be at first base:
"I would still expect to be playing first base when I go to Spring Training. We haven't talked about anything else, so I expect to be working at first base and trying to make my way that way."
What's his preference?
"I always joke around when people ask my favorite position, and I tell them it's the batter's box. I'll do whatever it takes to get in the lineup."
"I would still expect to be playing first base when I go to Spring Training. We haven't talked about anything else, so I expect to be working at first base and trying to make my way that way."
What's his preference?
"I always joke around when people ask my favorite position, and I tell them it's the batter's box. I'll do whatever it takes to get in the lineup."
Do you have an Astros tattoo?
From Citizen Chris:
From Twitter follower Yourescum:
Do you permanently (or perhaps temporarily, with a pen) rock the Astros (but aren't in a Houston-based gang)? Send us a pic at astroscounty (at) gmail.com
From Twitter follower Yourescum:
Do you permanently (or perhaps temporarily, with a pen) rock the Astros (but aren't in a Houston-based gang)? Send us a pic at astroscounty (at) gmail.com
What would you give Wandy?
It's a question we've asked before, but in light of Levine's piece on the Astros' willingness to talk long-term with Wandy -
“We certainly remain open about the possibility of getting a multiyear deal done with Wandy. In our way of thinking, multiyear contracts should really be buying out some substantial amount of free agency in the process, and in order to do that on a player with Hunter’s service at this point in time, we’d be talking about a contract much longer than we’re comfortable with.”
- so basically, Wandy may get a longer-term deal, but to buy out "substantial amounts of free agency," the Astros would be looking at three years of Pence's arbitration plus free agency. Would you give Pence a six-year deal?
But the question we're posing here is, "How much would you give Wandy?"
Wandy turned 32 yesterday. So there's that. From yesterday's arbitration exchanges, his agent (Barry Praver) wants $10.25m. I'm guessing that the numbers would start at 3yrs/$33m. Would you commit to that?
Wandy has pitched in six seasons, making 20+ starts in all of them (and 65 starts in the last two seasons combined). He's a tale of two pitchers, split between 2005-07, and 2008-10.
From 2005-07: 28-33, 5.17 ERA/1.45 WHIP. 336K:178BB. 85 ERA+. 4.1 WAR. xFIP: 4.56/4.67/4.23 (respectively).
From 2008-10: 34-31, 3.36 ERA/1.28 WHIP. 502K:175BB. 121 ERA+. 10.2 WAR. xFIP: 3.75/3.63/3.68.
So yeah, he's been a much better player over the 2nd half of his career than the first. Is that worth gambling on in his Age 32-34 seasons? His most similar pitcher through Age 31 is Carl Pavano, who had a pretty dang good year last year in Minnesota at Age 34. With Brad Arnsberg, is it a valid assumption that he'll continue - for another 3-4 years - that he'll have seasons similar to his Age 29-31 seasons?
What say you?
“We certainly remain open about the possibility of getting a multiyear deal done with Wandy. In our way of thinking, multiyear contracts should really be buying out some substantial amount of free agency in the process, and in order to do that on a player with Hunter’s service at this point in time, we’d be talking about a contract much longer than we’re comfortable with.”
- so basically, Wandy may get a longer-term deal, but to buy out "substantial amounts of free agency," the Astros would be looking at three years of Pence's arbitration plus free agency. Would you give Pence a six-year deal?
But the question we're posing here is, "How much would you give Wandy?"
Wandy turned 32 yesterday. So there's that. From yesterday's arbitration exchanges, his agent (Barry Praver) wants $10.25m. I'm guessing that the numbers would start at 3yrs/$33m. Would you commit to that?
Wandy has pitched in six seasons, making 20+ starts in all of them (and 65 starts in the last two seasons combined). He's a tale of two pitchers, split between 2005-07, and 2008-10.
From 2005-07: 28-33, 5.17 ERA/1.45 WHIP. 336K:178BB. 85 ERA+. 4.1 WAR. xFIP: 4.56/4.67/4.23 (respectively).
From 2008-10: 34-31, 3.36 ERA/1.28 WHIP. 502K:175BB. 121 ERA+. 10.2 WAR. xFIP: 3.75/3.63/3.68.
So yeah, he's been a much better player over the 2nd half of his career than the first. Is that worth gambling on in his Age 32-34 seasons? His most similar pitcher through Age 31 is Carl Pavano, who had a pretty dang good year last year in Minnesota at Age 34. With Brad Arnsberg, is it a valid assumption that he'll continue - for another 3-4 years - that he'll have seasons similar to his Age 29-31 seasons?
What say you?
How different from the '27 Yankees were the '28 Yankees?
So Richard Justice has a good blog post today about how the Roy/Lance trades went down last July, but he had an interesting little comment about not rebuilding, and dropped some history on us:
'You're always in some state of transition,. I'm sure the '28 Yankees were a little bit different than the '27 Yankees. That's just reality."
Is he right? (And hell and yes we're reaching on this post, it's just that it's gloomy out, and I need a break)
The '27 Yankees could pretty easily be listed as the Greatest Team of All Time, going 110-44, 114-44 if you count the World Series sweep, scored 975 runs (a +376 run differential), and were 31 games ahead of their nearest competitor.
The '28 Yankees went 101-53, won the AL, swept the World Series. But outscored their opponents by "just" 209 runs.
As a team, the '27 Yankees hit .307/.384/.488 and finished 1st in the AL in every category but doubles (2nd) and stolen bases (4th). The team ERA was 3.20, and 5th starter George Pipgras was 10-3. Herb Pennock led the team with eight losses, but a 3.00 ERA, and 19 wins.
The '28 Yankees hit .295/.365/.450 as a team, finishing 5th in doubles, 3rd in triples, and 7th in stolen bases. The pitching staff had a team 3.74 ERA, and a 102 ERA+.
So, yeah, there was a little bit of a difference between the '27 and '28 Yankees. But the '28 Yankees swept the Cardinals in the World Series. I could handle that kind of "drop-off."
(This post was brought to you by Hyrdrocodone)
'You're always in some state of transition,. I'm sure the '28 Yankees were a little bit different than the '27 Yankees. That's just reality."
Is he right? (And hell and yes we're reaching on this post, it's just that it's gloomy out, and I need a break)
The '27 Yankees could pretty easily be listed as the Greatest Team of All Time, going 110-44, 114-44 if you count the World Series sweep, scored 975 runs (a +376 run differential), and were 31 games ahead of their nearest competitor.
The '28 Yankees went 101-53, won the AL, swept the World Series. But outscored their opponents by "just" 209 runs.
As a team, the '27 Yankees hit .307/.384/.488 and finished 1st in the AL in every category but doubles (2nd) and stolen bases (4th). The team ERA was 3.20, and 5th starter George Pipgras was 10-3. Herb Pennock led the team with eight losses, but a 3.00 ERA, and 19 wins.
The '28 Yankees hit .295/.365/.450 as a team, finishing 5th in doubles, 3rd in triples, and 7th in stolen bases. The pitching staff had a team 3.74 ERA, and a 102 ERA+.
So, yeah, there was a little bit of a difference between the '27 and '28 Yankees. But the '28 Yankees swept the Cardinals in the World Series. I could handle that kind of "drop-off."
(This post was brought to you by Hyrdrocodone)
Of course, the first question MiLB asked was, "How do you pronounce your name?"
Amazing. One of the ten questions MiLB asked prospect Mike Foltynewicz was "How do you pronounce your name?" (His response? It's Fol-ten-eh-vich)
Also, when players you follow start mentioning players they look up to who are younger than you are, it's time for tears:
I always liked Justin Verlander. He's got a tall frame, throws 98 and really knows how to get the ball up there. I always liked watching him play, and admire the things that he can do. I liked him when I was younger, and still do to this day.
What did he buy with his $1.3m signing bonus?
Not really, because I'm going to need that money down the road. Although hopefully I'll be able to make plenty more down the road and not have to worry about it. But so far all I've gotten is a truck, a Ford F150 with nice big rims on it. It's not the greatest on gas, but in the snow it gets you where you need to go.
Also, when players you follow start mentioning players they look up to who are younger than you are, it's time for tears:
I always liked Justin Verlander. He's got a tall frame, throws 98 and really knows how to get the ball up there. I always liked watching him play, and admire the things that he can do. I liked him when I was younger, and still do to this day.
What did he buy with his $1.3m signing bonus?
Not really, because I'm going to need that money down the road. Although hopefully I'll be able to make plenty more down the road and not have to worry about it. But so far all I've gotten is a truck, a Ford F150 with nice big rims on it. It's not the greatest on gas, but in the snow it gets you where you need to go.
More details on the DeShields arrest
Zach Levine has some further details on what happened with Delino DeShields over the weekend:
DeShields was stopped at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET after allegedly driving the wrong way on a one-way street near the University of Georgia campus. He told Athens-Clarke County police that he was leaving a Kappa Alpha gathering. According to the police, he said he had consumed a sip of beer earlier in the night and consented to a breath test, which registered .076 BAC. The legal limit in Georgia for a driver under age 21 — DeShields turned 18 in August - is .02.
Upon later being taken to the police station, he registered a .092 and a .094 in an intoxication test.
Police found four open bottles of liquor in the car, a 2010 Cadillac Escalade registered to DeShields, leading to the charge of underage possession of alcohol. The third charge was for the one-way roadway violation.
DeShields was stopped at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET after allegedly driving the wrong way on a one-way street near the University of Georgia campus. He told Athens-Clarke County police that he was leaving a Kappa Alpha gathering. According to the police, he said he had consumed a sip of beer earlier in the night and consented to a breath test, which registered .076 BAC. The legal limit in Georgia for a driver under age 21 — DeShields turned 18 in August - is .02.
Upon later being taken to the police station, he registered a .092 and a .094 in an intoxication test.
Police found four open bottles of liquor in the car, a 2010 Cadillac Escalade registered to DeShields, leading to the charge of underage possession of alcohol. The third charge was for the one-way roadway violation.
Corpus Christi begins highlighting players
The Hooks began profiling some projected Double-A players (captip to Farmstros for the link), beginning with Jose Altuve, Jay Austin, and Brandon Barnes.
There's not a whole lot you may not have known, but it's a pretty good summation of their respective 2010s.
There's not a whole lot you may not have known, but it's a pretty good summation of their respective 2010s.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Pence, Wandy: Show Me You Love Me
Zach Levine reports via Twitter that the Astros have exchanged figures with Pence and Wandy, offering them $5.15m, and $8m, respectively. However, Pence (and his agent) want $6.9m and Wandy wants $10.25m.
I guess I'm with Pence on his number, and the Astros on Wandy's. Thoughts?
I guess I'm with Pence on his number, and the Astros on Wandy's. Thoughts?
Arbitration Dealz!
So, due to some prior commitments today (like, "Work") we're a little late in getting you the news, but here's the big story of the day:
Michael Bourn avoided an arbitration hearing, signing a deal for $4.4 million for 2011.
Jeff Keppinger did the same thing, signing for $2.3 million in 2011 (not bad for a guy who'll be in a cast until May).
Clint Barmes did the same thing, signing for $3.925 million in 2011, plus incentives.
Ed Wade:
"[Assistant GM] David [Gottfried] handled the negotiations and indicated yesterday that we thought we had the opportunity to get at least these three done. The goal is always the same. It's to slot a player at the proper place in the salary structure, and I think the work David did and the cooperation of the players and their agents allowed us to do that with these three guys."
The Astros have exchanged figures with Wandy and Pence, and hope to get a deal done before a hearing, in which the Astros have to tell their players they're not worth what they think they're worth.
As AstroBrit pointed out in a tweet, the WAR figures aren't too shabby.
In signing Bourn, Barmes, and Keppinger, the Astros committed a total of $10.625m today for three players whose WAR totaled 7.0, or $1.52m per win above replacement.
Of course, Keppinger will miss until May, and Barmes is coming off a 0.4 WAR season, but Bourn's deal is quite nice.
Says Aaron Gleeman on Barmes:
He’s a good defender at either middle infield spot and the Astros were in need of a shortstop, but Barmes’ bat is utility man-caliber at best and making a trade for the right to pay him $4 million this season is all kinds of wrong.
Michael Bourn avoided an arbitration hearing, signing a deal for $4.4 million for 2011.
Jeff Keppinger did the same thing, signing for $2.3 million in 2011 (not bad for a guy who'll be in a cast until May).
Clint Barmes did the same thing, signing for $3.925 million in 2011, plus incentives.
Ed Wade:
"[Assistant GM] David [Gottfried] handled the negotiations and indicated yesterday that we thought we had the opportunity to get at least these three done. The goal is always the same. It's to slot a player at the proper place in the salary structure, and I think the work David did and the cooperation of the players and their agents allowed us to do that with these three guys."
The Astros have exchanged figures with Wandy and Pence, and hope to get a deal done before a hearing, in which the Astros have to tell their players they're not worth what they think they're worth.
As AstroBrit pointed out in a tweet, the WAR figures aren't too shabby.
In signing Bourn, Barmes, and Keppinger, the Astros committed a total of $10.625m today for three players whose WAR totaled 7.0, or $1.52m per win above replacement.
Of course, Keppinger will miss until May, and Barmes is coming off a 0.4 WAR season, but Bourn's deal is quite nice.
Says Aaron Gleeman on Barmes:
He’s a good defender at either middle infield spot and the Astros were in need of a shortstop, but Barmes’ bat is utility man-caliber at best and making a trade for the right to pay him $4 million this season is all kinds of wrong.
Monday, January 17, 2011
DeShields makes a statement
With a captip to Citizen Andrew, Delino DeShields Jr has released a statement on his Facebook page:
"I take the responsibility of being a role model seriously and apologize to my fans and community, who continue to support my family and I during this unfortunate incident. I look forward to putting this matter behind me and sincerely appreciate the respect of privacy during this personal matter."
"I take the responsibility of being a role model seriously and apologize to my fans and community, who continue to support my family and I during this unfortunate incident. I look forward to putting this matter behind me and sincerely appreciate the respect of privacy during this personal matter."
Sunday, January 16, 2011
DeShields popped for DUI
Zach Levine found out that Delino DeShields had a rough night, getting busted for DUI. As if that's not enough, he's 18, so there's the whole "minor in possession" issue, as well.
"It's a police matter," says Ed Wade.
Brutal. And stupid.
"It's a police matter," says Ed Wade.
Brutal. And stupid.
Friday, January 14, 2011
AstroBrit brings the noise
If you follow Astros County on Twitter, you know that we engage in polite and lively discourse with Our Man Across the Pond, AstroBrit. He has quite the Astros blog, and his post today is a great companion read to Royal's post today about Jeff Pearlman.
Meat Wagon Updates
Zach Levine has a new post in which he addresses a couple of players who need the Florence Nightengale treatment (and not "Syphilis" - turns out she never had syphilis. Yet I digress.)
*Jose Vallejo, who was on the wrong end of a kitchen knife, is trying to get back to pre-sliced form (see what I did there?)
*Chia-Jen Lo is "a little behind" after a UCL injury.
*Alberto Arias should be ready for Spring Training after his shoulder cleaning.
*Jose Vallejo, who was on the wrong end of a kitchen knife, is trying to get back to pre-sliced form (see what I did there?)
*Chia-Jen Lo is "a little behind" after a UCL injury.
*Alberto Arias should be ready for Spring Training after his shoulder cleaning.
Appy Astros interviews Altuve
Hey! There's a good interview over at Appy Astros with lil' Jose Altuve.
Did the Chronicle kill a story on steroids and the Astros?
John Royal takes Jeff Pearlman, everybody's favorite SI writer, to task in a post today at the Houston Press.
It's a good read on how Pearlman doesn't have much to go on with his Biggio/Bagwell + PED allegations, but there's an interesting quote from former Chronicle Sports Editor Fred Faour (in Pearlman's Clemens book, "The Rocket That Fell to Earth.")
"I had [an Astros steroid probe] all planned. We all had suspicions about Roger and some other guys, and we did a lot of digging. But that kind of thing takes a lot of time and costs a lot of money. I had an investigative reporter I had planned on hiring just for the task, but I was not allowed to bring him in."
"There was no commitment from management to go after it. So we let it die. If the players wanted to live a lie, we wouldn't stand in their way."
Now, granted, had I read Pearlman's book - which I have not done, though not for any reason - this quote would have been the subject of a post far earlier.
Royal, with your money quote:
So because the Houston Chronicle was too cheap to do any investigative work, Pearlman had nothing to glom off of regarding Bagwell and Biggio. Thus he just makes allegations without backing up anything. And because the Chron was too cheap, the reputations of guys like Bagwell and Biggio can continue to be besmirched.
It's a good read on how Pearlman doesn't have much to go on with his Biggio/Bagwell + PED allegations, but there's an interesting quote from former Chronicle Sports Editor Fred Faour (in Pearlman's Clemens book, "The Rocket That Fell to Earth.")
"I had [an Astros steroid probe] all planned. We all had suspicions about Roger and some other guys, and we did a lot of digging. But that kind of thing takes a lot of time and costs a lot of money. I had an investigative reporter I had planned on hiring just for the task, but I was not allowed to bring him in."
"There was no commitment from management to go after it. So we let it die. If the players wanted to live a lie, we wouldn't stand in their way."
Now, granted, had I read Pearlman's book - which I have not done, though not for any reason - this quote would have been the subject of a post far earlier.
Royal, with your money quote:
So because the Houston Chronicle was too cheap to do any investigative work, Pearlman had nothing to glom off of regarding Bagwell and Biggio. Thus he just makes allegations without backing up anything. And because the Chron was too cheap, the reputations of guys like Bagwell and Biggio can continue to be besmirched.
Oh great, Berkman's on a mission
Last night, over a couple of adult beverages, a couple of friends of mine (one a Cardinals fan, the other a Yankees fan) talked about Lance Berkman - strangely enough we three represented the last - and only - three teams of Berkman's career.
I said that Berkman was going to have a great year, for three reasons:
1. He's healthy for the first time in a while.
2. He'll be playing on a team that will contend for the postseason.
3. He's going to want to stick it to the Astros.
And then Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch went and published this huge article on Berkman. And I think I'm right.
Anyhow, on the wooing of Lance Berkman:
La Russa lobbied the five-time All-Star at least twice over the phone while explaining a desire to return Berkman to the outfield. Berkman rejected the Cardinals' initial $4 million offer as the Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs circled. Berkman remained in touch with Adam Wainwright, whom he and Cara had befriended during a pair of faith-based retreats for athletes.
Shortly after Berkman told Wainwright of the Cubs' interest in him as Derrek Lee's successor at first base, Mozeliak called with an enhanced, $7.5 million offer. By that time Cubs general manager Jim Hendry was en route to Houston for dinner with Berkman. Sensing Hendry might be prepared to offer as much as $10 million, Berkman told the Cardinals he would commit for $8 million with no incentives attached. When Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. signed off on a second modified offer, the two-day negotiation was finalized.
Hendry still dined with Berkman but returned empty-handed to Chicago.
Berkman, who validates my Position #3:
"Circumstances had to be so bizarre for me to end up where I am: We had to be a bad team. I had to be doing really poorly, which forced them into not picking up my option. I had a really bad year with a relatively new GM who doesn't have attachment to the old guard. Once they cut me loose I think they washed their hands of it."
Berkman's wife, who validates Position #1 & #2:
"I hate that so much of people's opinion is based solely on last year. It was such a poor year starting off with surgery. That was the root of it. Then when you're on a team that's bad and you're expected to lift the team up … I just don't think it was a fair year."
Get ready, because I think Berkman is going to go off this year.
I said that Berkman was going to have a great year, for three reasons:
1. He's healthy for the first time in a while.
2. He'll be playing on a team that will contend for the postseason.
3. He's going to want to stick it to the Astros.
And then Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch went and published this huge article on Berkman. And I think I'm right.
Anyhow, on the wooing of Lance Berkman:
La Russa lobbied the five-time All-Star at least twice over the phone while explaining a desire to return Berkman to the outfield. Berkman rejected the Cardinals' initial $4 million offer as the Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs circled. Berkman remained in touch with Adam Wainwright, whom he and Cara had befriended during a pair of faith-based retreats for athletes.
Shortly after Berkman told Wainwright of the Cubs' interest in him as Derrek Lee's successor at first base, Mozeliak called with an enhanced, $7.5 million offer. By that time Cubs general manager Jim Hendry was en route to Houston for dinner with Berkman. Sensing Hendry might be prepared to offer as much as $10 million, Berkman told the Cardinals he would commit for $8 million with no incentives attached. When Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. signed off on a second modified offer, the two-day negotiation was finalized.
Hendry still dined with Berkman but returned empty-handed to Chicago.
Berkman, who validates my Position #3:
"Circumstances had to be so bizarre for me to end up where I am: We had to be a bad team. I had to be doing really poorly, which forced them into not picking up my option. I had a really bad year with a relatively new GM who doesn't have attachment to the old guard. Once they cut me loose I think they washed their hands of it."
Berkman's wife, who validates Position #1 & #2:
"I hate that so much of people's opinion is based solely on last year. It was such a poor year starting off with surgery. That was the root of it. Then when you're on a team that's bad and you're expected to lift the team up … I just don't think it was a fair year."
Get ready, because I think Berkman is going to go off this year.
Is Justice talking about a different Carlos Lee?
What in the world is going on here?
Justice:
Mills might not be able to count on Carlos showing up early or being the take-charge guy in the clubhouse. But he can count on him hitting. When the Astros evaluate their questions about the 2011 season, Lee is way down the list.
Now just hold on a gosh-darn minute. There are indications that Carlos Lee will bounce back, as the Crawfish Boxes recently pointed out. The .238 BABIP alone should tell you that his average should come up. But that's a big "should."
If you take a gander at Carlos Lee's ISO (in which you subtract BA from SLG), measuring isolated power, he has a career ISO of .208. But in 2009, it was .189, and last year, it was .170. He's hitting more groundballs (38.5% in 2010, compared to a 36.2% career GB average). 9.5% of his flyballs resulted in home runs, down from a career 12.9% (and that was 10.5% in 2009).
Furthermore, in looking at his plate discipline (captip: FanGraphs - linked above), Lee took a hack at 34.5% of pitches outside the strike zone, far higher than his 24.4% career percentage (and over 10% higher than 2009), and took a swing at half the pitches thrown to him (seriously, exactly 50%), his highest rate since 2007. He made contact on the same rate as he did in 2009 - 87.8%. While the results of 2010 may indicate bad luck, it also may just indicate that he's losing his power, and doesn't hit the ball as hard as he once did.
Regardless, while you can probably count on Carlos Lee returning to previous form in 2011, it's far from a sure thing.
Justice:
Mills might not be able to count on Carlos showing up early or being the take-charge guy in the clubhouse. But he can count on him hitting. When the Astros evaluate their questions about the 2011 season, Lee is way down the list.
Now just hold on a gosh-darn minute. There are indications that Carlos Lee will bounce back, as the Crawfish Boxes recently pointed out. The .238 BABIP alone should tell you that his average should come up. But that's a big "should."
If you take a gander at Carlos Lee's ISO (in which you subtract BA from SLG), measuring isolated power, he has a career ISO of .208. But in 2009, it was .189, and last year, it was .170. He's hitting more groundballs (38.5% in 2010, compared to a 36.2% career GB average). 9.5% of his flyballs resulted in home runs, down from a career 12.9% (and that was 10.5% in 2009).
Furthermore, in looking at his plate discipline (captip: FanGraphs - linked above), Lee took a hack at 34.5% of pitches outside the strike zone, far higher than his 24.4% career percentage (and over 10% higher than 2009), and took a swing at half the pitches thrown to him (seriously, exactly 50%), his highest rate since 2007. He made contact on the same rate as he did in 2009 - 87.8%. While the results of 2010 may indicate bad luck, it also may just indicate that he's losing his power, and doesn't hit the ball as hard as he once did.
Regardless, while you can probably count on Carlos Lee returning to previous form in 2011, it's far from a sure thing.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Astros release Rorabaugh and Kemp
According to Baseball America, the Astros have released pitcher Phil Rorabaugh and OF Brian Kemp.
Rorabaugh was an undrafted free agent who signed shortly after the 2009 draft.
Kemp was the 19th Round pick in 2009, and hit .226/.323/.268 for Lexington in 2010.
Rorabaugh was an undrafted free agent who signed shortly after the 2009 draft.
Kemp was the 19th Round pick in 2009, and hit .226/.323/.268 for Lexington in 2010.
Of all the players they could have spent a week profiling
Somehow NESN chose to spend five days profiling Dan Wheeler.
Just how much interest is being shown in the Astros?
Here's a quote from Zach Levine's article on the progress of the sale of the Astros, from Steve Greenberg, in charge of the investment firm handling the sale:
"We're pleased with the level of interest that's been expressed to this point."
And Tom Kirkendall tweeted a sentiment this morning that perfectly sums up our reaction:
Does the Chron think that McLane's investment bankers would ever say publicly that the sale of the Stros is going badly?
Exactly. Nobody would say, "Yeah, this kind of sucks. We've been offered $20, a stack of legal pads, and a roll of 32-cent stamps for the Astros. We'll never sell this team, unless ol' Drayton lowers his asking price by, say, $300 million."
"We're pleased with the level of interest that's been expressed to this point."
And Tom Kirkendall tweeted a sentiment this morning that perfectly sums up our reaction:
Does the Chron think that McLane's investment bankers would ever say publicly that the sale of the Stros is going badly?
Exactly. Nobody would say, "Yeah, this kind of sucks. We've been offered $20, a stack of legal pads, and a roll of 32-cent stamps for the Astros. We'll never sell this team, unless ol' Drayton lowers his asking price by, say, $300 million."
The Hardball Times' Top 10 Prospect List
The fellas over at The Hardball Times listed their Top 10 prospects for 2011, with a pull from their summation (click the link for the full article):
1. Jordan Lyles - He has a chance to be the next Oswalt-level Houston hurler.
2. Jiovanni Mier - He is still one of my favorite players in the minor leagues but needs to bounce back.
3. Delino DeShields - I like him but don't love him.
4. Mike Foltynewicz - The tools are likable, but there is so much to prove.
5. Tanner Bushue - His curveball has shown promise, but his overall command has been inconsistent.
6. Jonathan Villar - Villar's strikeout rate and fielding percentage don't inspire much confidence, but he is 19 years old, has some speed to work with, and a nice line-drive swing.
7. Jimmy Paredes - Whether or not his power develops could be his make-or-break factor.
8. Austin Wates - Some say his power could take off, while others think his plate discipline could separate him.
9. J.D. Martinez - His displayed home run power is pushing Martinez up prospect boards, but his flat swing makes me think it won't show at higher levels.
10. Jay Austin - Austin has game changing speed, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio isn't doing him any favors.
1. Jordan Lyles - He has a chance to be the next Oswalt-level Houston hurler.
2. Jiovanni Mier - He is still one of my favorite players in the minor leagues but needs to bounce back.
3. Delino DeShields - I like him but don't love him.
4. Mike Foltynewicz - The tools are likable, but there is so much to prove.
5. Tanner Bushue - His curveball has shown promise, but his overall command has been inconsistent.
6. Jonathan Villar - Villar's strikeout rate and fielding percentage don't inspire much confidence, but he is 19 years old, has some speed to work with, and a nice line-drive swing.
7. Jimmy Paredes - Whether or not his power develops could be his make-or-break factor.
8. Austin Wates - Some say his power could take off, while others think his plate discipline could separate him.
9. J.D. Martinez - His displayed home run power is pushing Martinez up prospect boards, but his flat swing makes me think it won't show at higher levels.
10. Jay Austin - Austin has game changing speed, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio isn't doing him any favors.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
10 Non-Roster Invitees
So the Chronicle has a list of non-roster invitees who will be attending Big League Spring Training:
Those Ten are:
P Jordan Lyles
P Pat Urckfitz
C Rene Garcia
1B Koby Clemens
SS Jiovanni Mier
OF Jon Gaston
OF Drew Locke
OF J.D. Martinez
OF Jack Shuck
OF T.J. Steele
What might strike you is the presence of SS Jiovanni Mier, the Astros 1st pick in the 2009 draft. Well, don't you worry. Zach Levine says that Mier is in Big League Camp because of contract stipulations. So all you Jose Altuve enthusiasts need not worry, for the moment.
Wade:
“It gives these kids the chance to come in and see what the atmosphere is like on the big league side. And it gives Millsie and the coaches the chance to see some of the guys we talk about a lot. And frankly, it allows us to show that we’re making progress in player development.”
Exactly. Because he knows we'll be covering each Spring Training game like our lives depend on it.
Those Ten are:
P Jordan Lyles
P Pat Urckfitz
C Rene Garcia
1B Koby Clemens
SS Jiovanni Mier
OF Jon Gaston
OF Drew Locke
OF J.D. Martinez
OF Jack Shuck
OF T.J. Steele
What might strike you is the presence of SS Jiovanni Mier, the Astros 1st pick in the 2009 draft. Well, don't you worry. Zach Levine says that Mier is in Big League Camp because of contract stipulations. So all you Jose Altuve enthusiasts need not worry, for the moment.
Wade:
“It gives these kids the chance to come in and see what the atmosphere is like on the big league side. And it gives Millsie and the coaches the chance to see some of the guys we talk about a lot. And frankly, it allows us to show that we’re making progress in player development.”
Exactly. Because he knows we'll be covering each Spring Training game like our lives depend on it.
Hey! We're the 4th most-miserable team in baseball!
Jim Caple updated his Misery Index, and saw the Astros jump from 9th to 4th!
4. Houston Astros (9): Houston is a good case study for the nuances of the Misery Index. As Red Sox fans can -- and unfortunately will -- explain at great length, reaching the World Series doesn't necessarily reduce misery if you don't win. Sure enough, Houston finally reached the World Series for the first time in 2005, something that probably would have satisfied Cubs fans until Chicago finally ran out of B-list celebrities to sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame." But the Astros got swept in that series, losing two games by one run (including a 1-0 clincher) and a third in 14 innings (Geoff Blum!!!!). The Astros haven't been to the World Series since while going through four managers and losing Biggio and Bagwell to retirement. So that, plus the success of other teams which lowered their misery numbers, means Houston's Misery Index rank actually went up, just like beer prices.
Historic despair: 6. Recent despair: 4. Historic pain: 9. Recent pain: 6. Intangible misery: 8. Misery outlook: 5.5. Misery index: 38.5.
4. Houston Astros (9): Houston is a good case study for the nuances of the Misery Index. As Red Sox fans can -- and unfortunately will -- explain at great length, reaching the World Series doesn't necessarily reduce misery if you don't win. Sure enough, Houston finally reached the World Series for the first time in 2005, something that probably would have satisfied Cubs fans until Chicago finally ran out of B-list celebrities to sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame." But the Astros got swept in that series, losing two games by one run (including a 1-0 clincher) and a third in 14 innings (Geoff Blum!!!!). The Astros haven't been to the World Series since while going through four managers and losing Biggio and Bagwell to retirement. So that, plus the success of other teams which lowered their misery numbers, means Houston's Misery Index rank actually went up, just like beer prices.
Historic despair: 6. Recent despair: 4. Historic pain: 9. Recent pain: 6. Intangible misery: 8. Misery outlook: 5.5. Misery index: 38.5.
Deputy Street: Defender of the Astros
Over at Spikes N' Stars, they were kind enough to link to the Pearlman post, in which he accuses Bagwell, Biggio, Tal Smith, Pam Gardner, Junction Jack, and Alyson Footer of all having injected each other with performance-enhancing drugs outside of the Bennigan's on Kirby and 610.
Deputy Street, unlike The Constable (or any of us), actually tried to talk to Pearlman. From the linked thread:
In Pearlman's defense re: my 'Twitter Offensive,' he did give me his email address for me to pose questions to him, and responded promptly when I wrote to him. However, he conditioned a defense of his comments on my agreement not to repeat the information that he provided me with. When I explained that I would not be willing to do so and why, he politely withdrew his offer to back up his statements.
The Twitter Offensive was epic (really, read through his feed). But there are a couple of things to note about this:
1. Why would Pearlman ever agree to share that sort of information based on the promise of a guy he doesn't know?
2. This means that Deputy Street is one of the most stand-up guys you'll ever meet. I would have agreed, and then blasted that crap all over Astros County faster than you can count Jason Smith's hits in 2009. (It's zero, if you were wondering).
3. If Pearlman has backup - or some sort of defense - why has he not come forward with it? As one SnS commenter noted, does it get into slander and libel? And why is it not slander or libel now (something actually kind of answered in the thread).
4. So two things to take away from this: Pearlman seems to have something - even if it's simply hearsay - on Bagwell and Biggio, but doesn't trust it enough to come out with it. And Deputy Street is one of the most honest guys you'll meet.
Deputy Street, unlike The Constable (or any of us), actually tried to talk to Pearlman. From the linked thread:
In Pearlman's defense re: my 'Twitter Offensive,' he did give me his email address for me to pose questions to him, and responded promptly when I wrote to him. However, he conditioned a defense of his comments on my agreement not to repeat the information that he provided me with. When I explained that I would not be willing to do so and why, he politely withdrew his offer to back up his statements.
The Twitter Offensive was epic (really, read through his feed). But there are a couple of things to note about this:
1. Why would Pearlman ever agree to share that sort of information based on the promise of a guy he doesn't know?
2. This means that Deputy Street is one of the most stand-up guys you'll ever meet. I would have agreed, and then blasted that crap all over Astros County faster than you can count Jason Smith's hits in 2009. (It's zero, if you were wondering).
3. If Pearlman has backup - or some sort of defense - why has he not come forward with it? As one SnS commenter noted, does it get into slander and libel? And why is it not slander or libel now (something actually kind of answered in the thread).
4. So two things to take away from this: Pearlman seems to have something - even if it's simply hearsay - on Bagwell and Biggio, but doesn't trust it enough to come out with it. And Deputy Street is one of the most honest guys you'll meet.
The Verducci Effect - 2009 to 2010
This is something that has been examined before, by us, and just about every other baseball blog (including today at It's About the Money, Stupid). For those unfamiliar, the Verducci Effect is a way to red-flag pitchers 25 years old (and younger) whose innings total saw a jump of 30 innings from year to year. Let's have us a look at the minor-league system and see who fits for the Astros. (We won't look at players drafted in 2009. I'm not going back to everybody's college stats and adding that up. This also doesn't include AFL stats.)
That's seven pitchers 25 or younger (drafted in 2008 or before) who saw a 30IP jump from 2009 to 2010. Of those pitchers:
-Jose Trinidad was placed on the DL in July 2010 and May 2009
-Doug Arguello was shut down with elbow trouble in August 2010 and put on the DL in June 2009.
As IATMS puts it:
It is, by no means, a hard and fast rule and Verducci himself is the first to admit it. But, it bears watching.
| Name | 2009 | IP | 2010 | IP | Diff. |
| Cisnero | 2009 | 55.2 | 2010 | 133 | +67.1 |
| Trinidad | 2009 | 21 | 2010 | 83.2 | +62.2 |
| Grimmett | 2009 | 41.2 | 2010 | 97.2 | +56 |
| Urckfitz | 2009 | 57.2 | 2010 | 109.2 | +52 |
| Cruz | 2009 | 54.2 | 2010 | 99.2 | +45 |
| Arguello | 2009 | 83 | 2010 | 127 | +44 |
| Wright | 2009 | 63.2 | 2010 | 102.2 | +39 |
| Melancon | 2009 | 69.1 | 2010 | 82 | +29 |
| Villar | 2009 | 90 | 2010 | 108 | +18 |
| Alvino | 2009 | 71.1 | 2010 | 87 | +15.2 |
| Godfrey | 2009 | 51.1 | 2010 | 67 | +15.2 |
| Lyles | 2009 | 144.2 | 2010 | 158.2 | +14 |
| Seaton | 2009 | 136.2 | 2010 | 146.1 | +9.2 |
| Leon | 2009 | 70.2 | 2010 | 77 | +6.1 |
| Pitkin | 2009 | 68.1 | 2010 | 73 | +4.2 |
| Greenwalt | 2009 | 139.1 | 2010 | 136.2 | -2.2 |
| Nevarez | 2009 | 43.1 | 2010 | 38.1 | -5 |
| Del Rosario | 2009 | 80.1 | 2010 | 74 | -5.2 |
| Wolf | 2009 | 121.1 | 2010 | 114.1 | -7 |
| Wabick | 2009 | 86.1 | 2010 | 74.2 | -11.2 |
| Norris | 2009 | 175.2 | 2010 | 153.2 | -18 |
| Dydalewicz | 2009 | 110 | 2010 | 83.2 | -26.1 |
| Abad | 2009 | 96.2 | 2010 | 65 | -31.2 |
| S. Perez | 2009 | 142.1 | 2010 | 107 | -35.1 |
That's seven pitchers 25 or younger (drafted in 2008 or before) who saw a 30IP jump from 2009 to 2010. Of those pitchers:
-Jose Trinidad was placed on the DL in July 2010 and May 2009
-Doug Arguello was shut down with elbow trouble in August 2010 and put on the DL in June 2009.
As IATMS puts it:
It is, by no means, a hard and fast rule and Verducci himself is the first to admit it. But, it bears watching.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
The Astros may actually be coming out ahead in the Great Franchise Swap
Zach Levine has a rather interesting blog post adding up the WAR of the players going back and forth between the Phillies and Astros.
David Carpenter couldn't believe his luck
When David Carpenter found out he was traded, he knew his path to the Bigs got shorter:
"From what some of the guys I spent time with at the end of the season and in the Fall League said, the Astros are a little bit shorthanded in those setup and closer areas. To see that and know that I'm progressing at a fairly good rate right now, pitching in the big leagues is definitely more real than ever. Seeing that goal being very, very reachable makes me want to work even harder and get a chance to get up to Houston as soon as I can."
"From what some of the guys I spent time with at the end of the season and in the Fall League said, the Astros are a little bit shorthanded in those setup and closer areas. To see that and know that I'm progressing at a fairly good rate right now, pitching in the big leagues is definitely more real than ever. Seeing that goal being very, very reachable makes me want to work even harder and get a chance to get up to Houston as soon as I can."
Jeff Pearlman just won't leave it alone
So. Jeff Pearlman appeared on Mike Silva's podcast (link captip to AstroBrit) and reiterated his stance that Bagwell and, yes, Biggio were PED users:
For the record, Pearlman reiterated his position on Jeff Bagwell saying he was “so certain he used steroids from being around that team, era, and researching his Clemens book.” He would go on to tell me that if Bagwell didn’t use then the “world is flat.”When I asked him if Craig Biggio falls into the same category as Bagwell because he played for Houston, a team that he said earlier in the show was hotbed for PED use, he said yes.
Click the link to hear the podcast.
For the record, Pearlman reiterated his position on Jeff Bagwell saying he was “so certain he used steroids from being around that team, era, and researching his Clemens book.” He would go on to tell me that if Bagwell didn’t use then the “world is flat.”When I asked him if Craig Biggio falls into the same category as Bagwell because he played for Houston, a team that he said earlier in the show was hotbed for PED use, he said yes.
Click the link to hear the podcast.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Astros trade Cartwright for Escalona
According to MLBTR (link later), the Astros have traded Albert Cartwright to the Phillies for pitcher Sergio Escalona. More to come...
So this is strange...
...Not baseball related, but Astros related, in which "the owner of the Houston Astros" is linked to a recent Ponzi scheme. (Though not apparently involved in the Ponzi-ing).
Friday, January 7, 2011
McTaggart's Projected Opening Day roster
Brian McTaggart takes a shot at predicting the Opening Day roster.
Notable among the selections is Ryan Rowland-Smith as SP5.
Notable among the selections is Ryan Rowland-Smith as SP5.
Baseball America's Astros Prospect Rundown
So! Baseball America posted their breakdown of Eddie's Farm. It's well worth your read, but here's how they see the Astros' Top 10:
1. Jordan Lyles
2. Delino DeShields
3. Jonathan Villar
4. Mike Foltynewicz
5. Jiovanni Mier
6. J.D. Martinez
7. Jimmy Paredes
8. Tanner Bushue
9. Austin Wates
10. Ariel Ovando
There are the usual rankings of best pitches, tools, etc, and here's your money quote:
The Astros still have much more work to do with their farm system, which Baseball America ranks as the 26th-best in the game, and the major league club, which has had three losing seasons in the last four years after only one sub-.500 record in the previous 15. A rotation built around veterans Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez and younger arms Happ and Bud Norris holds promise, but the bullpen needs help and the offense ranked 28th in the majors in scoring and 29th in home runs last year.
Now. We have never been in the business of trying to project players (mainly because we haven't seen them), aside from looking at statistical evidence. And even in that role, we don't feel qualified to make any hard decisions. But that can't stop us from listing a few players we really like, and want to keep an eye on. So allow us to provide a supplementary list of prospects for your perusing pleasure (in no particular order):
A) Dallas Keuchel
B) Grant Hogue
C) Jack Shuck
D) Ben Heath
E) Jose Altuve
F) Luis Cruz
G) Bryce Lane
1. Jordan Lyles
2. Delino DeShields
3. Jonathan Villar
4. Mike Foltynewicz
5. Jiovanni Mier
6. J.D. Martinez
7. Jimmy Paredes
8. Tanner Bushue
9. Austin Wates
10. Ariel Ovando
There are the usual rankings of best pitches, tools, etc, and here's your money quote:
The Astros still have much more work to do with their farm system, which Baseball America ranks as the 26th-best in the game, and the major league club, which has had three losing seasons in the last four years after only one sub-.500 record in the previous 15. A rotation built around veterans Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez and younger arms Happ and Bud Norris holds promise, but the bullpen needs help and the offense ranked 28th in the majors in scoring and 29th in home runs last year.
Now. We have never been in the business of trying to project players (mainly because we haven't seen them), aside from looking at statistical evidence. And even in that role, we don't feel qualified to make any hard decisions. But that can't stop us from listing a few players we really like, and want to keep an eye on. So allow us to provide a supplementary list of prospects for your perusing pleasure (in no particular order):
A) Dallas Keuchel
B) Grant Hogue
C) Jack Shuck
D) Ben Heath
E) Jose Altuve
F) Luis Cruz
G) Bryce Lane
Thursday, January 6, 2011
G1: Astros @ Phillies to be televised
Brian McTaggart has a friendly tip that G1: Astros @ Phillies will be televised on April 1 at 12pm. It's your first chance to see Halladay throw a no-hitter in 2011!
Looks like the Astros are going to have to pay Keppinger
So for all the talk of Jeff Keppinger getting traded, those ideas changed today as Keppinger is going to need surgery on his foot, and will likely miss the beginning of the regular season.
McTaggart:
Keppinger spent two weeks on the disabled list late last year with left big toe sesamoiditis, which is an inflammation of two small bones near the ball of the foot. He spent six weeks in a walking boot and told general manager Ed Wade on Wednesday he was beginning to experience discomfort trying to accelerate while walking and jogging.
He'll miss 3-4 months, so if the surgery is scheduled for next week, that puts him back around May.
Wade:
"Due to the fact he's had this health setback, the opportunity to put him in a situation with another club and get more playing time has gone past the board until it resolves itself. We're hoping he bounces back quickly and gets healthy and everybody else on the club is healthy."
McTaggart:
Keppinger spent two weeks on the disabled list late last year with left big toe sesamoiditis, which is an inflammation of two small bones near the ball of the foot. He spent six weeks in a walking boot and told general manager Ed Wade on Wednesday he was beginning to experience discomfort trying to accelerate while walking and jogging.
He'll miss 3-4 months, so if the surgery is scheduled for next week, that puts him back around May.
Wade:
"Due to the fact he's had this health setback, the opportunity to put him in a situation with another club and get more playing time has gone past the board until it resolves itself. We're hoping he bounces back quickly and gets healthy and everybody else on the club is healthy."
A few thoughts on the Steroid Era
Take a look at the Single-Season leaders in Batting Average. Go ahead, we'll wait. Maybe you're lazy, and don't want to. So allow us to do some copying and pasting:
1. Hugh Duffy - .440 - 1894
2. Tip O'Neill - .435 - 1887
3. Ross Barnes - .429 - 1876
4. Nap Lajoie - .427 - 1901
5. Willie Keeler - .424 - 1897
6. Rogers Hornsby - .424 - 1924
7. George Sisler - .420 - 1922
8. Ty Cobb - .420 - 1911
9. Tuck Turner - .418 - 1894
10. Sam Thompson - .415 - 1894
Of the top 10 highest batting averages recorded in a single season, six of them came before 1900, and eight of them before 1920. What is your initial reaction? Something along the lines of, "Yeah, but that was the Dead Ball Era?"
It's widely accepted to be a unique period in baseball history. Of those ten players, seven are in the Hall of Fame (Tip O'Neill, Ross Barnes, and Tuck Turner aren't). O'Neill is the only one who would actually be eligible for the Hall of Fame as the other two didn't play ten seasons.
If you're thinking, "The game was just different back then," you would be absolutely correct. If you are a proponent of the Hall of Fame and what it stands for, then you look at the above numbers and qualify it for what it is - an era in history which took on a different dimension, and has since evolved.
We don't study world history and think, "21st century civilization is bullcrap, because they all had FourSquare and Twitter and whatnot. Telegraphs: That's when civilization was pure."
Another table, if you will, and I bet you can guess what it represents:
1. Barry Bonds - 73 - 2001
2. Mark McGwire - 70 - 1998
3. Sammy Sosa - 66 - 1998
4. Mark McGwire - 65 - 1999
5. Sammy Sosa - 64 - 2001
6. Sammy Sosa - 63 - 1999
7. Roger Maris - 61 - 1961
8. Babe Ruth - 60 - 1927
9. Babe Ruth - 59 - 1921
10. Jimmie Foxx (and Hank Greenberg, Ryan Howard, and Mark McGwire) - 58 - 1932, 1938, 2006, 1997
Yes, seven of the ten seasons with the most home runs came within a five-year span (1997-2001). So, it's been labeled the Steroid Era. But does it not just mean that the game took on a different dimension from those that came before it? Does the availability of technology (medicinal and otherwise) change the fact that 1994-2004(-ish) was a different time in the game?
Or is it because, this time, writers are accountable for their own actions? Bernie Miklasz has an excellent column today in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. An excerpt:
We're many of the same voters who looked the other way and glorified McGwire — godded him up, really — when he was filling those stadiums, creating excitement and selling extra newspaper copies in the late 1990s. The struggling print-news industry needed a boost, and McGwire was our performance-enhancing story. His muscle drove home runs and single-copy sales.
And what proud, card-carrying member of the BBWAA wants to be reminded of that now? We've found religion on the steroids issue, and it is never too late to convert.
That's a remarkable piece of accountability and journalism.
Had the Steroid Era happened (if you don't count amphetamines) in the late 1800s, how many of the BBWAA would be writing "If Ring Lardner had any balls at all, then he would have..." articles?
At our favorite Phillies blog, Crashburn Alley, they have a post on boycotting the Hall of Fame, and it's a poignant and interesting read. But I still can't see holding the Hall of Fame responsible for how the voters choose their candidates. Think of it in terms of American Idol. That show sucks, and I haven't watched it in years, because people are - collectively - stupid ("One of us is not as dumb as all of us" mentality) . If, in your mind, the Hall of Fame should become like American Idol, it's certainly your prerogative.
We just shouldn't be so shocked that the BBWAA is collectively ignorant (you know how hard it is to get 75% of 581 people to agree on anything?), and to take it out on the institution that has nothing to do with how the BBWAA votes (aside from refraining to guide their choices) and makes the voters figure out for themselves who best represents the era - whether that era encompasses using rolled up socks for a ball, or performance-enhancing drugs - isn't fair.
The Steroid Era doesn't need an asterisk. It's a walking asterisk, just like the Dead Ball Era.
1. Hugh Duffy - .440 - 1894
2. Tip O'Neill - .435 - 1887
3. Ross Barnes - .429 - 1876
4. Nap Lajoie - .427 - 1901
5. Willie Keeler - .424 - 1897
6. Rogers Hornsby - .424 - 1924
7. George Sisler - .420 - 1922
8. Ty Cobb - .420 - 1911
9. Tuck Turner - .418 - 1894
10. Sam Thompson - .415 - 1894
Of the top 10 highest batting averages recorded in a single season, six of them came before 1900, and eight of them before 1920. What is your initial reaction? Something along the lines of, "Yeah, but that was the Dead Ball Era?"
It's widely accepted to be a unique period in baseball history. Of those ten players, seven are in the Hall of Fame (Tip O'Neill, Ross Barnes, and Tuck Turner aren't). O'Neill is the only one who would actually be eligible for the Hall of Fame as the other two didn't play ten seasons.
If you're thinking, "The game was just different back then," you would be absolutely correct. If you are a proponent of the Hall of Fame and what it stands for, then you look at the above numbers and qualify it for what it is - an era in history which took on a different dimension, and has since evolved.
We don't study world history and think, "21st century civilization is bullcrap, because they all had FourSquare and Twitter and whatnot. Telegraphs: That's when civilization was pure."
Another table, if you will, and I bet you can guess what it represents:
1. Barry Bonds - 73 - 2001
2. Mark McGwire - 70 - 1998
3. Sammy Sosa - 66 - 1998
4. Mark McGwire - 65 - 1999
5. Sammy Sosa - 64 - 2001
6. Sammy Sosa - 63 - 1999
7. Roger Maris - 61 - 1961
8. Babe Ruth - 60 - 1927
9. Babe Ruth - 59 - 1921
10. Jimmie Foxx (and Hank Greenberg, Ryan Howard, and Mark McGwire) - 58 - 1932, 1938, 2006, 1997
Yes, seven of the ten seasons with the most home runs came within a five-year span (1997-2001). So, it's been labeled the Steroid Era. But does it not just mean that the game took on a different dimension from those that came before it? Does the availability of technology (medicinal and otherwise) change the fact that 1994-2004(-ish) was a different time in the game?
Or is it because, this time, writers are accountable for their own actions? Bernie Miklasz has an excellent column today in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. An excerpt:
We're many of the same voters who looked the other way and glorified McGwire — godded him up, really — when he was filling those stadiums, creating excitement and selling extra newspaper copies in the late 1990s. The struggling print-news industry needed a boost, and McGwire was our performance-enhancing story. His muscle drove home runs and single-copy sales.
And what proud, card-carrying member of the BBWAA wants to be reminded of that now? We've found religion on the steroids issue, and it is never too late to convert.
That's a remarkable piece of accountability and journalism.
Had the Steroid Era happened (if you don't count amphetamines) in the late 1800s, how many of the BBWAA would be writing "If Ring Lardner had any balls at all, then he would have..." articles?
At our favorite Phillies blog, Crashburn Alley, they have a post on boycotting the Hall of Fame, and it's a poignant and interesting read. But I still can't see holding the Hall of Fame responsible for how the voters choose their candidates. Think of it in terms of American Idol. That show sucks, and I haven't watched it in years, because people are - collectively - stupid ("One of us is not as dumb as all of us" mentality) . If, in your mind, the Hall of Fame should become like American Idol, it's certainly your prerogative.
We just shouldn't be so shocked that the BBWAA is collectively ignorant (you know how hard it is to get 75% of 581 people to agree on anything?), and to take it out on the institution that has nothing to do with how the BBWAA votes (aside from refraining to guide their choices) and makes the voters figure out for themselves who best represents the era - whether that era encompasses using rolled up socks for a ball, or performance-enhancing drugs - isn't fair.
The Steroid Era doesn't need an asterisk. It's a walking asterisk, just like the Dead Ball Era.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
And from Bagwell himself
Click to read Alyson Footer's post on the Bagwell press conference, but you can tell from the pull that he still knows how to get in that batting stance:
On whether or not he finds the suspicion of PEDs offensive?:
"Not one bit. Someone from Toronto's obviously not going to know a thing about me. That's going to happen in this era. The suspicion is ridiculous...just because I worked out? I mean, come on. But it doesn't bother me. I knew this was going to happen. Whatever happens, happens."
On whether or not he finds the suspicion of PEDs offensive?:
"Not one bit. Someone from Toronto's obviously not going to know a thing about me. That's going to happen in this era. The suspicion is ridiculous...just because I worked out? I mean, come on. But it doesn't bother me. I knew this was going to happen. Whatever happens, happens."
Reaction to Bagwell's HOF voting
So let's do a little Twitter round-up of the reaction to Bagwell's 41.7% showing:
Brian McTaggart (quoting Brad Ausmus):
"I think he'll get in eventually and I think he deserves to get in."
Buster Olney:
Jeff Bagwell's vote percentage is stunningly low for someone who clearly has Hall of Fame numbers -- but tied to no evidence of PED use.
Zach Levine:
Bagwell total should rise next year. Saw with Alomar what a huge number of first-ballot "protectionists" there still are.
Alyson Footer:
Disappointing day for Astros fans, but not terribly surprising. A 41% showing in first year is very, very encouraging.
Brian McTaggart (quoting Brad Ausmus):
"I think he'll get in eventually and I think he deserves to get in."
Buster Olney:
Jeff Bagwell's vote percentage is stunningly low for someone who clearly has Hall of Fame numbers -- but tied to no evidence of PED use.
Zach Levine:
Bagwell total should rise next year. Saw with Alomar what a huge number of first-ballot "protectionists" there still are.
Alyson Footer:
Disappointing day for Astros fans, but not terribly surprising. A 41% showing in first year is very, very encouraging.
Bagwell will resume his candidacy in 2012
Congratulations to Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven for their election to the Hall of fame.
Our boy Bagwell got 41.7% of the vote - the highest for a first-ballot showing since last year, when Alomar got over 73% - and UPDATE Barry Larkin, who got 51.6% of the vote in 2010.
Other than Alomar (and Larkin), Bagwell has the highest percentage since Ryne Sandberg, with 49.2% (in 2003), of eligible candidates who did not get in on their first ballot.
Every first-ballot candidate since 1993 who received over 40% (Sandberg, Fisk, Carter, Sutton, Niekro) got in - except for Steve Garvey, who received 41.6% of the vote and had his 15 years (peaking on his 3rd ballot in 1995 with 42.6%) before falling off the ballot, and is waiting on the Veterans Committee, I suppose. Larkin saw an 11% bump in voting in this, his second year on the ballot.
Our boy Bagwell got 41.7% of the vote - the highest for a first-ballot showing since last year, when Alomar got over 73% - and UPDATE Barry Larkin, who got 51.6% of the vote in 2010.
Other than Alomar (and Larkin), Bagwell has the highest percentage since Ryne Sandberg, with 49.2% (in 2003), of eligible candidates who did not get in on their first ballot.
Every first-ballot candidate since 1993 who received over 40% (Sandberg, Fisk, Carter, Sutton, Niekro) got in - except for Steve Garvey, who received 41.6% of the vote and had his 15 years (peaking on his 3rd ballot in 1995 with 42.6%) before falling off the ballot, and is waiting on the Veterans Committee, I suppose. Larkin saw an 11% bump in voting in this, his second year on the ballot.
Tranzactionz!
The Astros made some moves over the last couple of weeks, according to Baseball America. Here are the ones that involve new information:
-Signed LHP Xavier Cedeno
Xavier Cedeno will be 25 in August, and has spent his entire career in the Rockies' system (drafted in the 31st Round of the 2004 draft). Cedeno didn't play in 2010, after being moved to the bullpen in 2009. In 47 appearances at Double-A, Cedeno has thrown 149.2IP, 172H/72ER, 77K:59BB, with a 4.56 ERA/1.54 WHIP.
This winter, he's playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, has made seven starts (12 appearances), and posted 32H/11ER, 31K:13BB (2.32 ERA/1.05 WHIP) for Carolina.
-Released RHP Leandro Cespedes, LHP Chris Blazek, LHP Angel Gonzalez, C Carlos Mojica, 2B German Duran, 2B Pedro Feliz.
Cespedes spent the majority of 2010 in Lancaster. Chris Blazek was suspended for something in 2010 after his return to Tri-City after being drafted in 2005. The other notable name on the list is German Duran, who was picked off waivers by the Astros in July 2009 from the Rangers. Ken Rosenthal at the time thought that Duran could figure into a utility role for the Astros long-term. I guess not.
-Signed LHP Xavier Cedeno
Xavier Cedeno will be 25 in August, and has spent his entire career in the Rockies' system (drafted in the 31st Round of the 2004 draft). Cedeno didn't play in 2010, after being moved to the bullpen in 2009. In 47 appearances at Double-A, Cedeno has thrown 149.2IP, 172H/72ER, 77K:59BB, with a 4.56 ERA/1.54 WHIP.
This winter, he's playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, has made seven starts (12 appearances), and posted 32H/11ER, 31K:13BB (2.32 ERA/1.05 WHIP) for Carolina.
-Released RHP Leandro Cespedes, LHP Chris Blazek, LHP Angel Gonzalez, C Carlos Mojica, 2B German Duran, 2B Pedro Feliz.
Cespedes spent the majority of 2010 in Lancaster. Chris Blazek was suspended for something in 2010 after his return to Tri-City after being drafted in 2005. The other notable name on the list is German Duran, who was picked off waivers by the Astros in July 2009 from the Rangers. Ken Rosenthal at the time thought that Duran could figure into a utility role for the Astros long-term. I guess not.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Tyler Kepner = New Hero
Tyler Kepner's NY Times article is well-worth a read. Your money quote:
Maybe Jeff Bagwell took steroids, maybe not. Bagwell played most of his career before testing, but so did everybody else who has ever appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot.
As far as I can tell, the only thing Bagwell is guilty of is playing in an era when his union fought against cleaning up the game. The legacy of that shameful stance is that baseless suspicion may now keep some deserving players, like Bagwell, out of the Hall of Fame.
Maybe Jeff Bagwell took steroids, maybe not. Bagwell played most of his career before testing, but so did everybody else who has ever appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot.
As far as I can tell, the only thing Bagwell is guilty of is playing in an era when his union fought against cleaning up the game. The legacy of that shameful stance is that baseless suspicion may now keep some deserving players, like Bagwell, out of the Hall of Fame.
Jayson Stark perpetuates the oh-so-vicious cycle
Jayson Stark's new column on ESPN has a high Whining Rate about the madness of voting for inductees into the Hall of Fame (to his credit, he does vote in Bagwell):
Now, the performance-enhancing-drug disaster has officially crashed into the laps of those of us who vote this way. We live in an age when nobody who has been connected with, or even suspected of, PED use is getting elected. And if my fellow voters want to take that stand, that's their right.
But if the people in Cooperstown, the people who run the Hall of Fame, want to continue to sit back and avoid taking any stand on this issue for the rest of time, they'd better understand what that means.
Are they fans of empty podiums? Are they worried about holding induction days with no inductees to honor? Are they prepared to start throwing players out of the Hall of Fame -- players who may be linked to PED use after they've gotten elected?
All those possibilities hover over Hall of Fame voting for the next quarter century unless the folks in Cooperstown figure out how they want to deal with the mess that the steroids era is about to make of their heretofore-hallowed institution.
I hope they're wise enough to see where this is leading. I hope they're enlightened enough to take some sort of stand. But in the meantime, for voters like me, the PED nightmare is only making a mess of my ballot.
Can we stop and dab a tear at our leg for Stark? First of all, the Hall of Fame has nothing to do with the actual election of the eligible nominees. Take this quote from Hall of Fame President Jeff Idelson:
"We don't elect. We induct. It's really a question for the voters."
This was in reference to the Barry Bonds exhibit in 2007. Nobody from the Hall of Fame pressures a voter. Nobody from the Hall of Fame has a vote. Would the Hall of Fame like there to be an Induction every year? Absolutely. Having just been to Cooperstown, I can't imagine what NOT having an Induction would do to the local economy. But to pass the problem of how you're going to vote off to the Hall of Fame is the same kind of "Don't-want-to-be-responsible" thinking that led the reporters and voters to this point in the first place.
Everybody contributed to the mess that is your ballot, Stark. It's not anybody else's problem, anymore. You got into this business to have the last word, so stand up and have the last word. Don't blame the Hall of Fame - who might have the least to do with the "steroid problem" in baseball - for messing up your morals and ideals. Those should have been sorted out a long time ago.
Now, the performance-enhancing-drug disaster has officially crashed into the laps of those of us who vote this way. We live in an age when nobody who has been connected with, or even suspected of, PED use is getting elected. And if my fellow voters want to take that stand, that's their right.
But if the people in Cooperstown, the people who run the Hall of Fame, want to continue to sit back and avoid taking any stand on this issue for the rest of time, they'd better understand what that means.
Are they fans of empty podiums? Are they worried about holding induction days with no inductees to honor? Are they prepared to start throwing players out of the Hall of Fame -- players who may be linked to PED use after they've gotten elected?
All those possibilities hover over Hall of Fame voting for the next quarter century unless the folks in Cooperstown figure out how they want to deal with the mess that the steroids era is about to make of their heretofore-hallowed institution.
I hope they're wise enough to see where this is leading. I hope they're enlightened enough to take some sort of stand. But in the meantime, for voters like me, the PED nightmare is only making a mess of my ballot.
Can we stop and dab a tear at our leg for Stark? First of all, the Hall of Fame has nothing to do with the actual election of the eligible nominees. Take this quote from Hall of Fame President Jeff Idelson:
"We don't elect. We induct. It's really a question for the voters."
This was in reference to the Barry Bonds exhibit in 2007. Nobody from the Hall of Fame pressures a voter. Nobody from the Hall of Fame has a vote. Would the Hall of Fame like there to be an Induction every year? Absolutely. Having just been to Cooperstown, I can't imagine what NOT having an Induction would do to the local economy. But to pass the problem of how you're going to vote off to the Hall of Fame is the same kind of "Don't-want-to-be-responsible" thinking that led the reporters and voters to this point in the first place.
Everybody contributed to the mess that is your ballot, Stark. It's not anybody else's problem, anymore. You got into this business to have the last word, so stand up and have the last word. Don't blame the Hall of Fame - who might have the least to do with the "steroid problem" in baseball - for messing up your morals and ideals. Those should have been sorted out a long time ago.
ESPN Ballot looks shaky for Bagwell
Credit Zach Levine with the link first, but ESPN asked 18 of their BBWAA voting members to show their ballot.
Bagwell got eight of the 18 votes with: Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Gordon Edes, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney, Brendan Roberts, Adam Rubin, and Jayson Stark voting for him.
Bagwell got eight of the 18 votes with: Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Gordon Edes, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney, Brendan Roberts, Adam Rubin, and Jayson Stark voting for him.
Yep, the Astros are pretty much done with these "roster moves"
McTaggart has an article from last night in which Ed Wade is apparently ready to roll the dice with what he's got.
Wade:
"At this point, we're pretty much in the mode of just getting ready for Spring Training. We've got arbitration issues we continue to deal with, and we'll continue to pay attention to other opportunities to improve that might present themselves, but by and large we're anxious to get to Spring Training and see where we are."
And then Wade calls out the likes of the Astros:
"But this year is going to be about guys hitting their marks. That means veteran players hitting their production in the past or younger guys building on numbers they produced a year ago.
"There's no reason to believe that's not going to happen."
Wade:
"At this point, we're pretty much in the mode of just getting ready for Spring Training. We've got arbitration issues we continue to deal with, and we'll continue to pay attention to other opportunities to improve that might present themselves, but by and large we're anxious to get to Spring Training and see where we are."
And then Wade calls out the likes of the Astros:
"But this year is going to be about guys hitting their marks. That means veteran players hitting their production in the past or younger guys building on numbers they produced a year ago.
"There's no reason to believe that's not going to happen."
Monday, January 3, 2011
The Astros County Power Rankings: January 3
Here's a little something we'll be doing throughout Spring Training and the season: rather than going with a traditional Power Ranking post every Monday morning, we're going to rank the Astros on a 1-25 system, with a pithy little blurb after each name. Will it be lusciously flawed like Megan Fox? Yes! Will it piss you off? Perhaps! Let's get going on this first Monday of 2011, and not do it again until Spring Training starts...
#1: Brett Myers
Can Myers improve on his 2010 as the ace of the staff? The key to an interesting August depends on it!
#2: Hunter Pence
Pence will have to step up and fill the offensive shoes of Carlos Lee, whom you won't see on this list until much, much later...
#3: Wandy Rodriguez
Which Wandy shows up in 2011? Early 2010 Wandy, who sucked and almost got traded, or Late 2010 Wandy, who was pretty dad gum great?
#4: Michael Bourn
Bourn has the defensive prowess and speed on the basepaths, but who gets to first base first: Bourn, or a 6th-grade tuba player on a band trip?
#5: Chris Johnson
I don't think any of us are expecting Johnson to hit .340 through 2011, but if he can hit within 60 points of it (on either side), we'll be happy.
#6: J.A. Happ
Showed up in the second half and provided solid, solid work. If he's that solid again (and everything goes right with Myers and Wandy), the Astros could have a solid core of 30-year old pitchers, peaking three years too late.
#7: Brandon Lyon
With the CL1 all his, will Lyon keep pitching like his role depended on it?
#8: Bud Norris
Will 2011 be the year that Norris comes into his own, and allows you to stop wondering if he'll walk, or strikeout, ten batters?
#9: Bill Hall
Ed Wade is betting Hall can provide some pop to the middle infield. Hitting 18HR last year, the most since hitting 35 in 2006, will certainly help...if he can stay healthy.
#10: Wilton Lopez
Should take over the 8th-inning if he can continue to dominate his command (5BB in 67IP in 2010).
#11: Clint Barmes
Sure, he's an offensive upgrade over Manzella, but is he worth the price?
#12: Brian Bogusevic
Two years ago, would you have imagined some fans clamoring for Bogusevic over $18.5m Carlos Lee?
#13: Fernando Abad
Had a decent showing in a handful of 2010 outings, and could feature in the SP5 spot.
#14: Brett Wallace
The Big Question Mark going into 2011. How his Spring Training goes depends on whether Bogusevic becomes an everyday player, and Carlos Lee becomes 1B1.
#15: Nelson Figueroa
Did alright as the 80-year old spot-starter/long relief guy in 2010, and could also figure in to the SP5 spot in 2011.
#16: Jason Castro
Buster Posey he's not (yet, anyway). How much patience will the Astros have with Castro?
#17: Wesley Wright
Once the Astros decide if he's going to be a starter or reliever, we'll be able to tell what kind of player he is.
#18: Angel Sanchez
Filled in admirably through Manzella's injury, but just doesn't have any pop.
#19: Carlos Lee
Lee's stock is waaay down, but he can't be moved thanks to that contract.
#20: Jason Michaels
He's good for a Ruthian week every season, and as a defensive replacement.
#21: Humberto Quintero
Established himself as Myers' personal catcher, but can't get on-base, or hit for power.
#22: Jeff Keppinger
The Astros have pretty much sunk Keppinger to this point, with talks with the Yankees breaking off at some point, Keppinger is looking up at playing time.
#23: Jason Bourgeois
Thought he might be able to do a little more at the plate, but just might spend 2011 in Oklahoma City.
#24: Jeff Fulchino
Injuries helped Fulchino take a step back in 2010 after a strong 2009.
#25: Tommy Manzella
Sucks to be here, but the Astros haven't done him many favors.
#1: Brett Myers
Can Myers improve on his 2010 as the ace of the staff? The key to an interesting August depends on it!
#2: Hunter Pence
Pence will have to step up and fill the offensive shoes of Carlos Lee, whom you won't see on this list until much, much later...
#3: Wandy Rodriguez
Which Wandy shows up in 2011? Early 2010 Wandy, who sucked and almost got traded, or Late 2010 Wandy, who was pretty dad gum great?
#4: Michael Bourn
Bourn has the defensive prowess and speed on the basepaths, but who gets to first base first: Bourn, or a 6th-grade tuba player on a band trip?
#5: Chris Johnson
I don't think any of us are expecting Johnson to hit .340 through 2011, but if he can hit within 60 points of it (on either side), we'll be happy.
#6: J.A. Happ
Showed up in the second half and provided solid, solid work. If he's that solid again (and everything goes right with Myers and Wandy), the Astros could have a solid core of 30-year old pitchers, peaking three years too late.
#7: Brandon Lyon
With the CL1 all his, will Lyon keep pitching like his role depended on it?
#8: Bud Norris
Will 2011 be the year that Norris comes into his own, and allows you to stop wondering if he'll walk, or strikeout, ten batters?
#9: Bill Hall
Ed Wade is betting Hall can provide some pop to the middle infield. Hitting 18HR last year, the most since hitting 35 in 2006, will certainly help...if he can stay healthy.
#10: Wilton Lopez
Should take over the 8th-inning if he can continue to dominate his command (5BB in 67IP in 2010).
#11: Clint Barmes
Sure, he's an offensive upgrade over Manzella, but is he worth the price?
#12: Brian Bogusevic
Two years ago, would you have imagined some fans clamoring for Bogusevic over $18.5m Carlos Lee?
#13: Fernando Abad
Had a decent showing in a handful of 2010 outings, and could feature in the SP5 spot.
#14: Brett Wallace
The Big Question Mark going into 2011. How his Spring Training goes depends on whether Bogusevic becomes an everyday player, and Carlos Lee becomes 1B1.
#15: Nelson Figueroa
Did alright as the 80-year old spot-starter/long relief guy in 2010, and could also figure in to the SP5 spot in 2011.
#16: Jason Castro
Buster Posey he's not (yet, anyway). How much patience will the Astros have with Castro?
#17: Wesley Wright
Once the Astros decide if he's going to be a starter or reliever, we'll be able to tell what kind of player he is.
#18: Angel Sanchez
Filled in admirably through Manzella's injury, but just doesn't have any pop.
#19: Carlos Lee
Lee's stock is waaay down, but he can't be moved thanks to that contract.
#20: Jason Michaels
He's good for a Ruthian week every season, and as a defensive replacement.
#21: Humberto Quintero
Established himself as Myers' personal catcher, but can't get on-base, or hit for power.
#22: Jeff Keppinger
The Astros have pretty much sunk Keppinger to this point, with talks with the Yankees breaking off at some point, Keppinger is looking up at playing time.
#23: Jason Bourgeois
Thought he might be able to do a little more at the plate, but just might spend 2011 in Oklahoma City.
#24: Jeff Fulchino
Injuries helped Fulchino take a step back in 2010 after a strong 2009.
#25: Tommy Manzella
Sucks to be here, but the Astros haven't done him many favors.
Bagwell's total = 35%?
Jay Jaffe at The Hardball Times has updated projections for Wednesday's Hall of Fame announcement, with Bagwell projecting to 35% of the ballots.
Jaffe:
Bagwell's the best candidate of the new crowd, but he has no chance to go in this year. Forget steroid gossip. It's just hard to go in the first year period. It's the nature of the process: over 500 people tallying their ballots individually and then mailing them in. The guys who make it in their first year need a special hook. It could be a big, glossy number: 3,000 hits, 300 wins, 500 homers. It could be a special distinction: best defensive shortstop ever, the ultimate closer, but they need some special hook to separate them from the "average" great candidate. You need something so that you could look at the guy for three seconds and decide he belongs.
Bagwell lacks that hook. He's the modern-day Johnny Mize: he could hit, slug, and draw walks, but he missed all the magic markers, and his career was too short. Bagwell's numbers were better because there was no WWII, and so he'll do better than Mize (who got into Cooperstown via the VC), but he lacks that hook.
Bagwell's candidacy reminds me a bit of Ryne Sandberg and Barry Larkin. They're not similar players, but both were clear Hall of Famers who got nowhere near 75 percent in their first go-around. Instead, they each finished at around 50 percent. If it wasn't for steroids, I'd put the over/under for Bagwell this year at 50 percent. Maybe a little higher, but around there. Toss in evidence-free steroid suspicion, and I have to mark him down a bit.
The good news for Bagwell fans: only twice has anyone debuted as well as I'm predicting for Bagwell and not subsequently made it into Cooperstown. One was Lee Smith, who is not only still on the ballot, but as a reliever the BBWAA doesn't know as much how to handle him. The other is Steve Garvey. They are the only ones to debut higher than 31 percent of the vote and not get in. (Next highest is Luis Tiant at 30.9 percent, then Maury Wills at 30.3 percent, and both of them could be eventual VC picks.)
What say you?
Jaffe:
Bagwell's the best candidate of the new crowd, but he has no chance to go in this year. Forget steroid gossip. It's just hard to go in the first year period. It's the nature of the process: over 500 people tallying their ballots individually and then mailing them in. The guys who make it in their first year need a special hook. It could be a big, glossy number: 3,000 hits, 300 wins, 500 homers. It could be a special distinction: best defensive shortstop ever, the ultimate closer, but they need some special hook to separate them from the "average" great candidate. You need something so that you could look at the guy for three seconds and decide he belongs.
Bagwell lacks that hook. He's the modern-day Johnny Mize: he could hit, slug, and draw walks, but he missed all the magic markers, and his career was too short. Bagwell's numbers were better because there was no WWII, and so he'll do better than Mize (who got into Cooperstown via the VC), but he lacks that hook.
Bagwell's candidacy reminds me a bit of Ryne Sandberg and Barry Larkin. They're not similar players, but both were clear Hall of Famers who got nowhere near 75 percent in their first go-around. Instead, they each finished at around 50 percent. If it wasn't for steroids, I'd put the over/under for Bagwell this year at 50 percent. Maybe a little higher, but around there. Toss in evidence-free steroid suspicion, and I have to mark him down a bit.
The good news for Bagwell fans: only twice has anyone debuted as well as I'm predicting for Bagwell and not subsequently made it into Cooperstown. One was Lee Smith, who is not only still on the ballot, but as a reliever the BBWAA doesn't know as much how to handle him. The other is Steve Garvey. They are the only ones to debut higher than 31 percent of the vote and not get in. (Next highest is Luis Tiant at 30.9 percent, then Maury Wills at 30.3 percent, and both of them could be eventual VC picks.)
What say you?
Statistical Look at Myers' 2010
MLB.com has a little article on what Myers' 2010 meant to the history books.
Baseball's Morality Police
Craig Calcattera at Hardball Talk has an excellent response to the LA Times' Ross Newhan's view of the role of the Hall of Fame voter:
“Somebody said we are not the morality police, but yet I think we are. If we aren’t, who is? Part of our job is that we are custodians of the game’s history.”
Calcattera:
The Hall of Fame is not heaven, my fellow baseball writers, you are not St. Peter at the gate, and no one — not even Jose Canseco — has written baseball’s book of life. Have a sense of humility about you. Understand that your role is not to be baseball’s moral arbiters, writ-large. You are to look at one player at a time and judge him accordingly. If you have nothing negative to say about him, and if his accomplishments are sufficient, vote him in.
Lovely!
“Somebody said we are not the morality police, but yet I think we are. If we aren’t, who is? Part of our job is that we are custodians of the game’s history.”
Calcattera:
The Hall of Fame is not heaven, my fellow baseball writers, you are not St. Peter at the gate, and no one — not even Jose Canseco — has written baseball’s book of life. Have a sense of humility about you. Understand that your role is not to be baseball’s moral arbiters, writ-large. You are to look at one player at a time and judge him accordingly. If you have nothing negative to say about him, and if his accomplishments are sufficient, vote him in.
Lovely!
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