Wild Card Preview: Astros @ Yankees

This is strange. Usually when I would do series previews on Astros County it was early in the season, and the enjoyment of doing so petered out by, say, the third week of April. This is the first postseason series preview in Astros County's seven year history, and it's a one-game playoff, so this should all be qualified by saying "This is a freaking crapshoot." Still, in the interest of page views (I should probably set up something #OnHere that makes us money for page views) here is your tale of the tape heading into the Wild Card Game at Yankee Stadium.

Season Series: 

Houston leads the season series 4-3, outscoring the Yankees 36-17, assisted by the 15-1 romp at Yankee Stadium on August 25. Other, closer games went as follows in 2015:

June 25: Dallas Keuchel threw a complete game shutout with 6H/0ER, 12K:1BB in a 4-0 win. Astros got four doubles, two from Altuve, and 2RBI from Evan Gattis.

June 26: The Astros had a 2-0 lead before a 3-run 7th from the Yankees provided the final margin. Vince Velasquez threw 6.1IP, 5H/2ER, 2K:1BB. Then Will Harris allowed a 3-run homer - two runners of which were inherited from Velasquez.

June 27: The Oberholtzer Game! The Yankees had a 6-0 lead on McCann's 1st inning grand slam and Chris Young's 2nd inning two-run shot. Next batter up was Alex Rodriguez, whom Brett Oberholtzer tried - and failed - to hit. This got him ejected and sent down later that afternoon. Hinch apologized to the Yankees, it was an ordeal. But the Astros fought back and after back-to-back jacks in the 5th by Correa and Altuve, tied the game up at 6-6, all runs off Masahiro Tanaka. Then in a horrible bout of foreshadowing, Neshek walked the first batter he faced in the 8th, the 2nd batter reached on an error, he got A-Rod, and then gave up a 2-run double to Mark Teixeira. Sipp gave up a solo homer to Chase Headley in the top of the 9th, and that was that. 9-6 Yankees.

June 28: Collin McHugh dominated the Jankees after they took a 1-0 lead in the 2nd, ending up throwing 8IP, 2H/1ER, 8K:2BB, 71 of his 106 pitches for strikes. Luke Gregerson got his 18th save. Correa tied the game when he hit a double, advanced on an error by Ellsbury, and made it around the bases to score a not-little-league homer. Correa later scored the go-ahead run on Evan Gattis' 64th triple of the season. Astros split the series.

August 24: Yankees win 1-0 on a walk-off sac fly after Scott Feldman goes 8IP, 6H/0ER, 6K:0BB and Oliver Perez walks the first three batters he sees in the 9th to load the bases for Chad Qualls, who gave up a deep flyball to Carlos Beltran.

August 25: Blowout! Also known as The Game Where Carlos Gomez Remembered How To Hit, Until He Hurt His Ribs (I'm working on the title). Gomez, despite going 8x18 in his first four games as an Astro, was hitting .192/.232/.256 up until the August 25th game. Then he smacked a double, homer, and 4RBI and from that game until the Intercostal strain hit .306/.362/.565.

August 26: A four-run 4th and a solid start from Collin McHugh gives the Astros the series with a 6-2 win. Gattis hit two homers.

Playoff Experience:

The Yankees everyday lineup has played in a combined 237 postseason games with 924 plate appearances.

The Astros' entire offensive corps has played in a combined 35 postseason games with 117 plate appearances.

Advantage: Could go either way! The Yankees could be so bored and jaded, and feel so entitled to a playoff spot that they forget there's not a Game 2. The Astros could be more jacked up and talented that they destroy the Yankees. Or the Yankees' faceless machine doesn't know how to do anything but roll, and they win. Or there isn't an advantage based on playoff experience, because it's a 9-inning crapshoot, anyway.

Experience in Single-Game Situations

The Astros are 86-76 in single games this season. The Yankees are 87-75 in single games this season.

Advantage: YANQUIS.

Recent Form

This is where it gets interesting. The Yankees went 3-7 in their last ten games, and the only reason that this game isn't in Houston is because of a balk and a two-run homer to Paul Goldschmidt. Still, they went 9-11 in their last 20, and 13-17 in their last 30 games. They're depleted. Weak.

But hey it's not like the Astros set it on fire and pissed on the ashes in the last month. Yeah, the Astros were 6-4 in their last ten, getting a crucial 4-2 road trip to end the season, but they were 10-10 in their last 20, and 13-17 in their last 30. Basically the Astros are a game better than the Yankees in their last 20, and dead even in their last 30. Of course, of the five AL playoff teams, only the Blue Jays and Rangers are over .500 in their last 30 games (both at 18-12). So whatever.

Advantage: Push!

Keuchel vs. Tanaka

Of course this comes down to Keuchel vs. Tanaka. Keuchel will be pitching on short rest and while I've made my feelings about his 6th inning last Friday known, there isn't a pitcher I'd rather have on the mound in a one-game series than Dallas Keuchel. I mean, I wouldn't trust Scott Kazmir to start my car right now. I'd give him the keys just to start it, come out five minutes later and he'd be holding the muffler and telling me my game plan sucked.

Tanaka, 2015: 24 starts, 154IP, 126H/60ER, 139K:27BB, 25HR allowed. 3.51 ERA/0.99 WHIP.
Tanaka, Post-ASG: 13 starts, 87IP, 70H/33ER, 72K:14BB, 15HR allowed, 3.41 ERA/0.97 WHIP.
Tanaka, last 5 starts: 32.1IP, 26H/11ER, 29K:3BB, 5HR allowed, 3.06 ERA/0.90 WHIP.
Tanaka, at home, 2015: 14 starts, 87.1IP, 72H/36ER, 78K:15BB, 3.71 ERA/1.00 WHIP.

Tanaka has been pretty great. Just because it's Keuchel doesn't mean this is going to be a walk in the park for the Astros, a formality before the Astros go to Kansas City to exact revenge on Edinson Volquez for breaking Springer's hand. Sure, the second part will likely happen, just not in an organized MLB setting.

If there's anything to feel good about, it's that Tanaka's worst start of the season came against Houston, but at Minute Maid Park. In that June 27 game, he allowed 7H/6ER, 5K:2BB and 3HR. That was actually the second start in a row he had given up 5ER+ and 3HR. Since that start against Houston, he has allowed a 3.31 ERA/0.94 WHIP.

And while we're feeling good about things, or not, we can at least look at his HR/9 (1.46) and see that it's the 9th-highest among pitchers who have thrown at least 150IP. So for a team that likes to hit BOMBZ, that's also, um, good.

Keuchel. We already know Dallas Keuchel. 27 of his 33 starts have resulted in three or fewer earned runs.

Keuchel, 2015: 33 starts, 232IP, 185H/64ER, 216K:51BB, 17HR allowed, 2.48 ERA/1.02 WHIP
Keuchel, Post-ASG: 94.2IP, 81H/30ER, 102K:17BB, 10HR allowed, 2.85 ERA/1.04 WHIP
Keuchel, Last 5 starts: 31.1IP, 30H/13ER, 31K:7BB, 3.73 ERA/1.18 WHIP
Keuchel, on the Road: 102.2IP, 98H/43ER, 77K:23BB, 13HR allowed, 3.77 ERA/1.18 WHIP

The most impressive thing about Keuchel's last five starts is that it includes the 11H/9ER outing at Arlington in 4.2IP. Keuchel's road numbers are skewed for two reasons:

1) Because his home splits are so good. Anything that's not The Greatest Home Record in Major League Baseball history is going to look a little lackluster.
2) 15 of his starts were on the road. In 10 of those starts he allowed three or fewer earned runs. There was the Arlington Disaster on September 16. Three of the other unKeuchel starts were in May and June, and then the only other road start where he allowed 4ER+ was on July 26 at Kansas City. So in six of his last eight road starts, Keuchel has allowed three or fewer earned runs.

Then there's Keuchel against the Yankees: 16IP, 9H/0ER, 21K:1BB.

Advantage: It's one start. Who freaking knows?

Bullpen

Dear God, please let Keuchel throw a Maddux.

The Astros' bullpen issues are well-documented and picked apart.

But the Yankees bullpen has been bad as well. Since arbitrary numbers don't require as much research, we can see that from September 1 to the end of the season the Yankees bullpen has allowed a .270/.363/.458 slash line. The Astros' bullpen in that same time frame? .284/.342/.453.

Advantage: There's no advantage right now.

Astros-Killers vs. Yankee-Killers

Astros-Killer: Chris Young. We have to stop Chris Young. Hit him. Give him syphilis. Do whatever you have to do, Luhnow. Dig deep down into Ground Control's Dark Web and pause the app causing murders and changing the weather to fire a brown note at Chris Young and make him poop himself in the on-deck circle. Chris Young is hitting the Astros to a .333/.391/.619 line.

Yankee-Killer: Evan Gattis. In seven games, Gattis is 11x26 with a .423/483/.885 line, 2K:3BB. Carlos Correa is hitting .333/.385/.583; Jose Altuve is hitting .348/.429/.565.

Advantage: Astros.

Breakdown:

There's no use trying to predict this. Let's just hope there's a happy revenge flight to Kansas City on Wednesday morning.

Hardball Talk Astros Preview

Craig Calcaterra is running through his preseason team previews over at Hardball Talk and the Astros were the focus this morning.

The Big Question: One hundred losses again, right?Depends on how long the Astros keep their prospects on the farm.

Craig touches on what we all know, that the season is all about how the young guys do, despite the solid additions of Feldman, Fowler, and the bullpen overhaul. He's concerned, though, that if the Astros are more concerned with service time than getting the kids up when they're ready the club could be set for another 100 loss season.

Prediction: No surprises here: Fifth place, AL West. 

Grant Brisbee's Astros Preview

Grant Brisbee is easily one of the funniest baseball writers (you may even be able to drop the "baseball," but I've never read any of his fiction, so we'll leave it in) around, and he wrote his Astros preview. At least he's sweet about it.

Money Quote:
The Astros probably would have liked to acquire baseball players who were good relative to their peers. They did not.

Grantland, on the Astros

Click here to read Jonah Keri's 2012 Astros preview, complete with jokes and humorous observations about the roster and front office.

Money quote:
Nearly everything that could have wrong for this franchise already has over the past few seasons. Unless Luhnow gets bone spurs in his hippocampus, the slow-and-steady rebuilding job will proceed as planned.

David Schoenfield's NL Central position rankings

ESPN Sweet Spot Network Leader David Schoenfield posted his rankings, by position, for the NL Central. Click the link for the full read, but here's where the Astros rank:

Quintero/Castro - 6th (Doesn't matter who it is - they're the worst catcher in the division, apparently)
Lee - 3rd
Altuve - 4th
Paredes - 6th
Lowrie - 5th
Martinez - 4th
Schafer - 6th
Bogusevic - 6th
Myers (as SP1) - 5th
Wandy - 4th
Norris - 2nd
Happ - 6th
Lyles/Sosa - 4th
Lyon - 6th
Bullpen - 6th
Intangibles - 6th

Interesting. Especially on the last one, where the things that you cannot quantify have been quantified, and the Astros had less things that one cannot figure out than any other team.

Greeneville preview

The Astros' Appalachian League affiliate in Greeneville kicks off their season tomorrow. We thought about doing a preview. But figured - correctly - that Appy Astros would do a better job. Check it out.

Extremely long preview of the Astros season

Sean Pendergast has a really long preview of the Astros' 2011.

Hardball Talk, on the Astros

Hardball Talk's Drew Silva ran down the Astros in 2011:

If the Astros want to get better, they need to start mimicking the ways of smaller market teams. Don’t give long-term contracts to aging players. Commit money to scouting and development. Draft well. Get busy on the international market. Build a top-level presence in Latin America.

It would seem to me that the Astros, for the past two seasons, have done all of these things.

Prediction Time:
This season brings 90 losses for the first time since 2000 and a close-shave fifth place finish over the sixth-place Pirates at the bottom of the National League Central.

At least the Astros are "interesting"

Athlon Sports posted their 2011 Astros preview today. Your money quote:

The Astros aren’t going to be anyone’s pick to win the division, but they’re an interesting team. By adding Hall and Barmes to a lineup that includes Lee, Pence, Bourn and Johnson, they should score runs. The pitching staff could be one of the best in the NL, but they’ll need Myers to repeat what he did last year and Rodriguez to be consistent. They could have thrust themselves into dark horse contender mode with another quality starter and another solid bat during the winter, but they did enough in the offseason to remain relevant.

Sporting News: The Astros had the 4th-best offseason...in the NL Central

According to Stan McNeal and the Sporting News, the Astros had the 4th-best offseason of all of the National League Central:

Judging by its offseason acquisitions, Houston isn't convinced its strong finish means it is ready to contend. The Astros made two lineup changes that can be considered marginal upgrades. They signed utilityman Bill Hall to play second base and traded for a shortstop, Clint Barmes, who lost his everyday job at second base in Colorado. They also brought in lefthanded starter Ryan Rowland-Smith, discarded by the Mariners after a dismal 2010, and unloaded reliever Matt Lindstrom.

And then your pre-Spring Training prediction:
Expect the Reds and Cardinals to lead the way, with the Brewers coming fast and Cubs closing steadily. The Astros could take another step forward but lack the depth of the contenders. The Pirates will need a lot to go right to end their record streak of consecutive losing seasons at 18.

Astros preview, via Brewers blog

Bernies's Crew, one of our favorite Brewers blogs, posted their 2011 Astros preview, and it's in-depth, and well worth a read.

Here's your closing shot:
I'll say this: their offense features four wild cards in Carlos Lee, Bill Hall, Clint Barmes, and Brett Wallace. Their pitching staff does not look strong on paper, but could surprise some people during the actual games; how does a 30-50 run improvement on offense and 20 run improvement on pitching/defense sound? We'll say the club looks like a 651 RS / 709 RA team -- better than 2010, but they'll have to rely on their efficiency once again to surprise their opponents.

Playoffs?! Tri-City vs. Batavia

Tonight is G1 of the NYPL Playoffs, featuring your Tri-City ValleyCats hosting the Batavia Muckdogs, NYPL affiliate of, yes, the St. Louis Cardinals. Let's do the Tale of the Tape:

Batavia: 45-29, 8-2 in their last ten games.
Tri-City: 38-36, 6-4 in their last ten games.

Batavia posted a .273/.352/.400 line in 74 games (the AVG and SLG were 2nd in the League, while their OBP was first). Tri-City posted a .244/.321/.361 line, for an OPS 71 points lower than the Muckdogs.

However, it's Tri-City who had the better year from the pitching staff. Tri-City's 3.43 ERA was third in the NYPL (Batavia - 3.85) while their WHIPs are comparable - Tri-City: 1.30; Batavia: 1.32.

Tri-City's pitching staff enjoyed a 2.90 K:BB ratio, while Batavia came in at 2.34. The ValleyCats did give up a league-worst 49 homers, with Batavia allowing 12 fewer round-trippers.

Head-to-Head: Batavia took the only series meeting between the two this season, 2-1, July 4-6. Tri-City won the first game 8-6, and dropped the second game 9-6, and the third game 5-4.

Batavia players to keep an eye on:

2010 5th Round pick Nick Longmire - OF: .287/.372/.483. 25 of his 76 hits have been for extra-bases.

2009 17th Round pick Jonathan Rodriguez - 1B: .258/.337/.500. His 12 homers have him tied for third in the NYPL. Comes in to the playoffs hitting .381/.422/.786 in his last ten games.

Game 1 Starting Pitcher John Gast: In eight games (last six have been starts), he has a 1.54 ERA / 1.00 WHIP, with 36K:8BB in 35IP.

Astros @ Phillies series preview, with Crashburn Alley

(Note: This post has been moved up in preparation for tonight's game. New news follows...)

Our favorite Phillies blog is easily Crashburn Alley. Today we talk with Bill Baer about the Phillies, Ed Wade, and the upcoming four-game set. (By the by, you can read our responses to CA's questions here)

AC: What is the typical Phillies fan's opinion of Ed Wade - sometimes we feel like we're the only ones in the world who actually think he's doing a pretty good job. How much credit should Wade get for the Phillies' World Series ring? How long of a leash should Astros fans give him?

CA: Most Phillies fans think of him as a joke because he was at the helm of so many bad teams during his time in Philadelphia. His motif was acquiring veteran relief pitchers when there was never a need as the team was frequently below .500 and out of the playoff hunt. He also traded Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen for next-to-nothing but I would argue that those trades were necessary regardless of what they got in return, similar to the Bobby Abreu trade.

Wade should actually get some -- not a lot, but some -- credit for the Phillies winning it all in 2008 as he was in charge when the core was drafted: Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, etc. I'd give most of that credit to Mike Arbuckle, now with the Kansas City Royals.

Astros fans should extend that leash through the next couple seasons because they don't have any other choice. The team is in rebuilding mode. If they win 75 games next year the season can be considered a success.

AC: Brett Myers has been a stud for the Astros this season, turning 25 good starts into a potential $30m+ deal. To what do you attribute Myers' resurgence, and is it for real?

CA: Myers was chronically underappreciated as a starter in Philly due to his 2005 season that he never duplicated. He's not quite as good as his ERA says he's been, but if you expect a 3.75-ish ERA then you should be quite content with him.

I wouldn't call his performance this year a "resurgence". Most of his success stems from a reduced HR/FB rate, which is at eight percent last year compared to a 15 percent career average. It's not due to his being away from Philadelphia as his home/road splits are similar throughout his career, and it's not like the Astros home stadium is a pitcher's ballpark (116 home run park factor for right-handed batters according to StatCorner.com) so I'd attribute the reduced HR/FB rate to luck. In other words, expect him to be more homer-happy going forward.

AC: As you're lucky enough to be in the middle of a playoff hunt, what are your thoughts on how the rest of the season plays out in the NL East?

CA: The Phillies are no strangers to tight playoff races as they won the NL East on the very last day of the season in 2007 and on the last weekend in '08. Now that the Phillies are almost fully healthy, they are in great shape to make another late-season surge towards the division crown.

I was in charge of writing both the Phillies and the Atlanta Braves' season preview for Baseball Daily Digest and my conclusion was that the Braves were going to be tough all year long if they could stay healthy. They did, for most of the season, and got more than they expected out of some of their marginal players like Omar Infante.

Over the remaining six weeks, though, I don't think they will have the requisite offense to keep up with the Phillies. The Phillies also have a superior starting rotation, play better defense, and run the bases better and more efficiently (their trademark during the Davey Lopes era). I think the Phillies ultimately win the division and the Braves miss the playoffs.

AC: After three weeks of watching Oswalt, what are the early returns, and where does he fit down the stretch and into 2011?

CA: Oswalt admitted he had a "dead arm" which explains his six-inning, five-run debut against the Washington Nationals and a four-walk performance against the Marlins his next time out. Since then, though, he's been exactly what we expected -- a legitimate #1-B behind Roy Halladay. The addition of Oswalt means the Phillies' starting pitching can match up with anybody's especially in the post-season.

It's nice to have Oswalt for another year (another two years if the Phillies want to pick up his $16 million club option in 2012). GM Ruben Amaro doesn't get a lot of credit -- and I've been among his many critics -- but he's been mindful of the future as well as the present. Many GM's become myopic and only see the current season's finish line when they're in the middle of a playoff race. As such, you see a lot of puzzling moves in July and August. The acquisition of both Cliff Lee last year and Oswalt this year are two of the least puzzling transactions made in that span of time.

AC: We're a somewhat insecure fanbase, and are constantly wondering what other fans think about us. So, if you give any thought to Houston at all, give us an outsider's viewpoint on the organization.

CA: I don't think Philadelphia pays any attention to Houston, honestly, since the Astros are in the NL Central and haven't been relevant to the team's playoff chances. However, don't think we haven't forgotten what Craig Biggio did to Billy Wagner on September 7, 2005. The Phillies were right in the middle of the NL Wild Card chase with the Astros. Going into that game, the Phillies were 73-66 and the Astros were 74-64. The Astros had taken the first two games of the series by a margin of one run each -- the Phillies were looking to salvage the series and stay a half-game behind.

The Phillies were ahead 6-5 going into the ninth inning. Wagner got the first two outs of the inning easily. But Jose Vizcaino reached on an error by David Bell and Willy Taveras reached on an infield single. Then Biggio came up and hit a three-run home run to put the Astros ahead 8-6. Brad Lidge would then retire the side easily in the bottom of the ninth.

The Phillies played extremely well after that game, winning 15 of their final 22 games, but finished one game behind the Astros for the Wild Card. That home run by Biggio literally cost us a playoff spot. And we -- or maybe just me -- haven't forgotten, or forgiven.

AC: How do you see this series playing out?

CA: Phillies fans won't be happy unless the Astros are swept, but I can see the 'stros taking one of the games. Given Wandy Rodriguez's recent run of success and the fact that Kyle Kendrick is the worst pitcher in the rotation, the final game of the series seems winnable for the Astros.

Joe Blanton has pitched much better as of late and is traditionally a second-half pitcher so I can see him out-dueling Brett Myers in the series opener.

Cole Hamels, his last start excepting, has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since May. Unfortunately, the Phillies don't score many runs for him. However, Bud Norris issues a lot of walks and he'll be facing the Phillies' regulars now that everyone is healthy.

And I definitely don't see J.A. Happ out-pitching Roy Halladay in the third game of the series. I'll say the Phillies win 3 out of 4, losing the series finale.

Big thanks to Crashburn Alley for taking the time to ask, and respond.

Who We Got - G20: Astros v. Reds

Who We Got

Cincinnati: 9-11, 3rd place, 4GB
On the Road: 3-5
Vs. Houston: 1-0
Last ten games: 4-6
Runs scored/Against: 93/118

Houston: 8-11, 5th place, 4.5GB
At Home: 5-8
Last ten games: 7-3
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 62/85

Starting Pitchers
Mike Leake: 1-0, 3.92 ERA / 1.55 WHIP, 13K:13BB, 2HRA
Last three games:
(vLAD - Apr 22) 7IP, 8H/5ER, 5K:1BB
(@PIT - Apr 16) 7IP, 7H/3ER, 3K:5BB
(vCHC - Apr 11) 6.2IP, 4H/1ER, 5K:7BB

Felipe Paulino: 0-2, 5.94 ERA / 1.62 WHIP, 11K:10BB, 0HRA
Last three games:
(vFLA - Apr 22) 5.2IP, 6H/2ER, 4K:3BB
(@CHC - Apr 16) 6IP, 6H/5ER, 3K:3BB
(vPHI - Apr 10) 5IP, 4H/4ER, 4K:4BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because Mike Leake looks like he's the only Reds pitcher to have his crap together. And if the Astros could make Aaron Harang look like Tom Glavine, then this could be a rough night. Leake is the only starting pitcher with an ERA under 5.70.

Because Leake walks batters. A lot. In 20.2IP, he has 13BB - or 5.7 per nine innings. He has been compared to Greg Maddux, because his fastball isn't overpowering, but he can pick his spots - allegedly. This is his 4th professional start, having never spent a day in the minors.

Because Paulino's ERA is almost three runs a game lower at home (5.22) than on the road (8.08). And Leake only has one road start - at Pittsburgh.

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because in 2009, the Reds were 3-1 in the second game of the series after taking the first game.

Because in four starts against Cincinnati in 2009, Paulino was 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA, and 16K:8BB. Jay Bruce is 3x8 with 2HR against FP, Joey Votto is 4x14 with 3XBH. Not that those are big samples, but the Reds as a team have hit .283/.333/.547 off Paulino.

Because Paulino doesn't work while he's ahead. And he throws too many pitches. He has run the count to three balls in 140 of his 608 plate appearances, and has been behind in the count in 222 of 608 PAs. The Reds, this season, have a .426 OBP when the batter is ahead in the count. Could be a long night of more walks.

Who We Got - G19: Astros v. Reds

Who We Got

Florida: 8-11, 5th place, 4GB
On the Road: 2-5
Vs. Houston: 0-0
Last ten games: 3-7
Runs scored/Against: 87/116

Houston: 8-10, 4th place, 3.5GB
At Home: 5-7
Last ten games: 8-2
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 60/79

Starting Pitchers
Aaron Harang: 0-3, 8.31 ERA / 1.62 WHIP
Last three games:
(vLAD - Apr 21) 5.2IP, 10H/6ER, 2K:2BB
(@FLA- Apr 15) 4IP, 10H/8ER, 4K:2BB
(vCHC - Apr 11) 7IP, 4H/3ER, 7K:0BB

Bud Norris: 1-1, 4.26 ERA / 1.74 WHIP
Last three games:
(v. FLA - Apr 21) 5IP, 3H/3ER, 5K:2BB
(@StL - Apr 15) 5IP, 4H/0ER, 9K:3BB
(vPHI - Apr 9) 2.2IP, 6H/3ER, 3K:4BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because these are two starting pitchers on different paths. There was talk about Aaron Harang getting skipped this start, but thankfully (for us), Dusty elected to throw him against Houston tonight - and maybe he'll pull a Zambrano and Suppan and head to the bullpen after a rough start tonight. In Harang's last two starts, he's thrown 9.2IP, allowing 20H/14ER. In Norris' last two starts, he has thrown 10IP, 7H/3ER, 14K:5BB.

Because it's well documented that the Astros kind of crush Harang. Blum is 10x17 (.588/.588/.882); Lee is 13x34 (.382/.389/.618); Berkman is 13x51, but with 7HR.

Or because Norris has never faced the Reds, though this could go either way. In his last two starts, Norris has held hitters to .189/.286/.297, and eleven total bases.

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because Norris can't seem to get out of the 6th. He hasn't recorded an out in the 6th inning yet this season, needing 82 pitches, 106 pitches, and 86 pitches to finish his outings (needing 82 pitches to get eight outs against the Phillies on the 9th).

Because after going 12-3 against Cincinnati in 2008, the Reds took 12 of 16 from Houston in 2009. If it wasn't for a Wandy win on September 27, the Reds would have won the last ten games versus Houston.

Because the Reds have six righties in the lineup, and Norris has allowed RHBs to hit .303/.343/.424 this season - though with a .455 BABIP.

Who We Got - G15: Astros v. Marlins

Who We Got

Florida: 8-7, 3rd place, 1.5GB
On the Road: 4-5
Vs. Houston: 0-1
Last ten games: 5-5
Runs scored/Against: 78/76

Houston: 5-9, 6th place, 4.5GB
At Home: 2-6
Last ten games: 5-5
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 42/69

Starting Pitchers
Anibal Sanchez: 0-1, 6.75 ERA / 1.67 WHIP
Last two games:
(@PHI- Apr 16) 6IP, 8H/5ER, 1K:4BB
(vLAD - Apr 11) 6IP, 7H/4ER, 5K:1BB

Felipe Paulino: 0-1, 7.36 ERA / 1.55 WHIP
Last two games:
(@CHC - Apr 16) 6IP, 6H/5ER, 3K:3BB
(vPHI - Apr 10) 5IP, 4H/4ER, 4K:4BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because Felipe Paulino isn't as bad as his stats would lead you to believe. Against Philadelphia, Jayson Werth sac'ed in Ryan Howard, who tripled to left. So thank Carlos Lee for watching that rattle around. He did walk in the second run, and a groundball got through to score runs 3/4. Against Chicago, the RBI double to Carlos Silva is inexcusable, and things fell apart in the 7th, where he left the bases loaded. All three runs scored. My point? It's not like Paulino is getting overmatched. Just a slip here and there, where the bullpen kind of let him down. Granted, nobody should leave the bases loaded with no outs, but still...

Because Paulino has only ever faced Jorge Cantu. He got a double in two ABs, but whatever. Nod goes to the pitcher here. Anibal Sanchez has only ever faced Carlos Lee and Pedro Feliz (0x9, combined). So maybe this is "Why Neither Pitcher Will Get Out of the 3rd."

Because this season (limited sample size, I know), 3-4-5 hitters are 8x17 off Anibal Sanchez. Or because Sanchez' pitch selection favors the aggressive. And we all know the Astros like to swing that bat early and often. When swinging at the first pitch, Sanchez has given up five hits in nine instances.

Or because, away from SunLife/Margaritaville Stadium - or wherever the Marlins play - Sanchez is 8-12 with a 4.53 ERA / 1.60 WHIP (11-6, 3.40 ERA/1.31 WHIP at home).

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because Paulino, in 49 plate appearances by the opposition, has been behind of the batter in 24 PAs. In 13 of those PAs, he's run the count full. And when the batter is ahead, said batter is hitting to a tune of .294/.500/.529.

Because with the bases empty, batters are hitting .192/.250/.385 off Paulino. But when runners are on base, that goes up to .357/.500/.571.

Because against teams in which Sanchez has pitched more than once, his ERA is lowest at Minute Maid Park. In two starts against Houston, he's 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. 12IP, 6H/1ER, 5K:7BB.

Who We Got - G14: Astros v. Marlins

Who We Got

Florida: 8-6, 3rd place, .5GB
On the Road: 4-3
Vs. Houston: 0-1
Runs scored/Against: 73/69

Houston: 4-9, 6th place, 4.5GB
At Home: 1-6
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 35/62

Starting Pitchers
Josh Johnson: 1-1, 4.50 ERA / 1.63 WHIP
Last two games:
(vCIN- Apr 15) 6IP, 5H/1ER, 10K:1BB
(vLAD - Apr 10) 5IP, 8H/3ER, 7K:3BB

Bud Norris: 1-1, 3.52 ERA / 2.22 WHIP
Last two games:
(@STL - Apr 15) 5IP, 4H/0ER, 9K:3BB
(vPHI - Apr 9) 2.2IP, 6H/3ER, 3K:4BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because this season righties are 11x33 with four XBH against Josh Johnson.

Because Johnson is 0-3 lifetime against the Astros, with a 7.36 ERA / 2.09 WHIP in two starts (one relief). At Minute Maid, Johnson is 0-2, with a 7.50 ERA / 2.17 WHIP.

Because Bud Norris just might be figuring this thing out. After a dominating 5IP performance vs St. Louis, hopefully Good Bud will show up tonight to keep this win streak alive.

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because the Astros haven't seen much of Josh Johnson. Of current Astros, Pedro Feliz has the most ABs against Johnson, and is 3x14, with an OPS of .500.

Because current Marlins are 16x36 against Bud Norris, with a .444/.475/.750 line (homers by Uggla, Cantu, and Ramirez).

Because Bud Norris actually kind of struggles at Minute Maid. In seven games, he's 4-3, but has a 5.13 ERA / 1.74 WHIP.

Who We Got - G13: Astros v. Marlins

The Astros welcome the Marlins to the lineup, likely by sending Lance Berkman out there to give Carlos Lee something to hit.

Who We Got

Florida: 8-5, 2nd place, .5GB
On the Road: 4-2
Vs. Houston: 0-0
Runs scored/Against: 68/62

Houston: 3-9, 6th place, 5.5GB
At Home: 0-6
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 28/57

Starting Pitchers
Chris Volstad: 1-1, 3.46 ERA / 1.15 WHIP
Last two games:
(vCIN- Apr 14) 6.2IP, 5H/3ER, 5K:4BB
(vLAD - Apr 9) 6.1IP, 5H/2ER, 2K:1BB

Brett Myers: 0-1, 3.46 ERA / 1.46 WHIP
Last two games:
(@STL - Apr 14) 7IP, 4H/1ER, 7K:2BB
(vSF - Apr 7) 6IP, 12H/4ER, 3K:1BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because surely the Astros can't start the season 0-7 at home. Right?

Because Volstad's last start against Houston saw him go 4.2IP, 8H/6ER, 2K:3BB. Though this was a game the Astros lost 9-8 in 11 innings (Aug 11, 09).

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because Brett Myers is 0-4 with an 8.58 ERA in his last five starts against the Marlins.

Or because Volstad has held righties to a .156/.344/.572 line (5x32) in two games this season.

Or because Volstad has only ever walked one Astro - Michael Bourn - in 37 plate appearances.

Or because the Marlins have hit Myers to a .326/.380/.583 line lifetime (47x144 - 37K:13BB). Jorge Cantu is 6x14 with three doubles and a homer. Dan Uggla is 14x37 with five homers and eight extra-base hits. Hanley Ramirez is 10x28 with four XBH.

Who We Got - G12: Astros @ Cubs

The Astros are shooting for their first win streak, and series win, at 1:20 Central today at Miller Park South Wrigley.

Who We Got

Chicago: 5-6, 3rd place, 2GB
At home: 3-2
Vs. Houston: 1-1
Runs scored/Against: 50/55

Houston: 2-9, 6th place, 5GB
Road: 2-3
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 25/55

Starting Pitchers

Ryan Dempster: 1-0, 4.38 ERA / 1.30 WHIP
Last two games:
(vMIL - Apr 12) 6.1IP, 7H/5ER, 5K:4BB
(@ATL - Apr 7) 6IP, 3H/1ER, 9K:2BB

Wandy Rodriguez: 0-2, 6.10 ERA / 1.74 WHIP
Last two games:
(@STL - Apr 12) 4.1IP, 7H/4ER, 0K:2BB
(vSF - Apr 6) 6IP, 7H/3ER, 4K:4BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because the Astros hit Dempster to a .297/.346/.419 line. Hunter Pence is 8x23 (.348/.348/.652), and Carlos Lee is 8x24 (.333/.333/.542). Expect Jeff Keppinger to get another start today - he's 9x18 with two doubles against Dempster lifetime.

Because Dempster in 51 plate appearances, Dempster has thrown 25 first-pitch strikes (22 FPBs, and four first-pitch swinging). When he throws an FPS, batters are 7x25 with 4XBH).

Because, while Wandy has had four straight NDs against Chicago, he has a 2.84 ERA against the Cubs in his last five starts. His last start at Wrigley was July 27, when he threw 7IP, 6H/1ER, 7K:2BB.

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because Dempster has given up a slash line of .222/.327/.400 in two starts this season.

Because Wandy has had some trouble with walks, and this Cubs team knows how to walk against Wandy - drawing 17. And Derrek Lee is .483/.568/.897 lifetime against Wandy.

First-pitch balls. Wandy has thrown 19 of them, and has been tagged to a .467/.579/.667 line after doing so.

Or because of Wandy's history at Wrigley. I know it was a Why They'll Win, but Wandy is 1-3 in six starts at Wrigley, with a 6.68 ERA / 1.74 WHIP.

Who we got - G11: Astros @ Cubs

The Astros are trying to avoid this whole, "Lose-Eight-Win-One" thing with an early start at Wrigley today, sending Roy to the mound.

Who We Got

Chicago: 5-5, 2nd place, 2GB
At home: 3-1
Vs. Houston: 1-0
Runs scored/Against: 47/51

Houston: 1-9, 6th place, 6GB
Road: 1-3
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 21/52

Starting Pitchers

Tom Gorzelanny: 0-0, 0.00 ERA / 0.95 WHIP
Last game: @CIN. 6.1IP, 4H/0ER (1R), 7K:2BB

Roy Oswalt: 0-2, 3.75 ERA / 1.33 WHIP
Last game: vPHI.: 6IP, 5H/2ER, 8K:2BB

Why the Astros Will Win

Because in 2009, Roy made four starts against the Cubs (one was his injury-shortened start in July) and threw 20IP, 19H/8ER, 14K:2BB. And he hasn't lost at Wrigley since September 2008.

Because in 317 plate appearances, crurrent Cubs are hitting .241/.263/.408 against Roy. Aramis Ramirez has a .695 OPS, Soriano - .692.

Because Tom Gorzelanny needs a lot of pitches to get through innings. His last outing was a 98-pitch, 6.1IP outing, his longest since August 4. So the quicker the Astros can get to the Cubs' bullpen, the better.

Because the Astros hit Gorzelanny to a .289/.364/.553 line. Carlos Lee is 3x7 with a home run.

Why the Astros Will Lose

Because they still can't hit. I don't know that I've ever seen an offense this futile.

Because Gorzelanny dominated against the Reds on April 11. He threw 62 of his 98 pitches for strikes, and 26 of them were non-contact strikes.

Because Gorzelanny gets groundballs, and the Astros like to hit groundballs. He got the Reds to hit ten groundballs, compared to six flyballs - and seven strikeouts.