Tuesday Morning Hot Links

It is Tuesday, December 15. Not much is happening [in the world of baseball, everywhere else, everything is happening all at once], but let's see what there is to see:

*Dusty Baker got on a Zoom call with reporters and said the team is looking for bullpen depth and rotation help for 2021 and beyond. Dusty:

We're talking to some people now. You know, there hadn't been a bunch of movement, not a bunch of players signing, but I imagine the next couple of weeks there will be more movement, and once some of the big boys - so-called big boys - get signed, then everybody else will probably check to see how the market is.

*Dusty will wait to decide if he wants to continue managing until after the 2021 season. Dusty:

It depends on how I feel. Depends on how the team feels about me. You never know what changes could come about in life.

*Brian McTaggart ranked the five best seasons by an Astros pitcher. SMH at the disrespect for Travis Blackley's 2013 season. 1986 Mike Scott got the nod for the Astros' best individual pitching season.

*Here's a nice little update on Astros' #4 prospect Jeremy Pena (2018 - 3rd Round) and how he's killing it in the Dominican League.

*Not that the top end matters so much for the 2021 Astros, but here are MLB.com's Top 100 prospects for the 2021 Draft.

*Yankees President Randy Levine didn't even finish his opening statement in arguing against the release of the so-called Yankees Letter before getting interrupted by Judge Gerald Lynch. The attorney for DraftKings, who is filing suit, David Golub:

The letter establishes when electronic sign stealing first occurred. That's a factual issue in the case, when did it start. The letter also establishes this was denied by Major League Baseball, and it's actually denied by the Red Sox in their brief, that Major League Baseball would ever conceal anything about electronic sign stealing.

*Former Astros Great Jason Martin (2013 - 8th Round), who was part of the package to Pittsburgh to acquire Gerrit Cole, has signed a minor-league deal with the North Waxahachie Ramgers.

*A couple of personal things: I had a very enjoyable chat with Keith Law about writing, reading, James Click, Cristian Javier, Forrest Whitley, and the Houston Astros. And I did a deep dive on the 1856 Caning of Charles Sumner, or when a member of the House of Representatives beat the absolute dog piss out of Senator Charles Sumner.

*Pitchfork: The 100 Best Songs of 2020.

*New York Times: She stalked her daughter's killers, one by one.

*After 51 years, the Zodiac Killer's cipher has been cracked.

*A Musical Selection:

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

Hey Texas. Go vote.

*Chandler Rome: Five Takeaways from the Astros' Spring Training so far.

*The Reformed Kenneth Giles says he would give his 2017 World Series ring back. It's actually a really interesting interview, and not paywalled, and well worth the time it would take to read it. He says he had no idea that the Trash Can Thing was even happening. Giles:
I feel awful, how the guys are being punished. They're great people, they really are, and great ballplayers. But I guess sometimes you just have to roll with it. Either be quiet or speak up and tell the truth. Go out there and perform, show them what you're made of.

On his time in Houston:
I felt trapped there. I felt out of place.

*Fate, or Happenstance? On Dave Martinez, Dusty Baker, and the What-Ifs that Span Four Decades.

*MLB Pipeline posted their Astros' Top 30 Prospect list. Top 10:
Forrest Whitley, Jose Urquidy, Abraham Toro, Freudis Nova, Bryan Abreu, Cristian Javier, Jeremy Pena, Korey Lee, Hunter Brown, Jairo Solis. Jim Callis:
After going all-in at the big league level for several years, Houston has just one prospect on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 List: enigmatic right-hander Forrest Whitley. There aren't any slam-dunk big-league regulars among the system's position players and its pitching stands out more for depth than difference-makers.

That is very true. The Astros traded Jake Rogers, Daz Cameron, and Franklin Perez for Justin Verlander. They sent Colin Moran, Joe Musgrove, Jason Martin, and Michael Feliz to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole. They traded Seth Beer, J.B. Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, and Josh Rojas to Arizona for Zack Greinke. That's a lot of big names. But I also know this:

Yordan Alvarez will play in his Age 23 season in 2020. Carlos Correa in his Age 25 season, Alex Bregman in his Age 26 season. Kyle Tucker and Abraham Toro in their Age 23 seasons. Jose Urquidy and Roberto Osuna in their Age 25 seasons. Lance McCullers in his Age 26 season.

This isn't like the Astros' decline of the late 2000s where they didn't have much of a farm system, and everyone was also Old to Quite Old.

*Keith Law posted his organizational farm rankings, and the Astros rank 27th. Law:
It's funny, but when you get rid of all of your amateur scouts, your drafts get a whole lot worse. If it weren't for the work of the international scouting department, helmed by Oz Ocampo (now with Pittsburgh), this would absolutely be the bottom system in the majors.

Good news: The Tampa Bay Rays have the best overall system in the Majors. How is that good news? Because the Astros got the Click of "Tampa Bay Fightin' Clicks" fame.

*The Athletic's Jake Kaplan and 610's Mike Meltser started an Astros podcast, and it's #Good. Not as #Good as Lima Time Time, but good nonetheless.

*Speaking of Jake Kaplan, he has a mailbag in which he addresses the sign-stealing impact on free agency, etc.

*Jonathan Mayo had a cool conversation with 2018 3rd Round pick Jeremy Pena about Spring Training, being the son of Geronimo Pena, his offensive outburst in 2019, and playing in cold weather.

Pena, 2018: .250/.340/.309
Pena, 2019: .303/.385/.440

*Sunday night I wrote about five minor-league guys I'm looking forward to following in 2020.

*Tom Verducci: MLB is about to change a whole bunch of rules to prevent the Astros *cough anddodgersandyankeesandredsox cough* from gaming the replay room. Of course the article got around to pine tar and Houston and Tyler Bauer. Brent Strom:
Our organization never went to an outside chemist. Never went to get like certain percentages of sticky stuff. Pine tar was used? Yes. It was used, okay? It's been used for the last 50 years and hitters don't complain. If you hang a 28 [hundred] revolution curveball as opposed to a 26 they're going to hit it anyway. But, MLB, Chris Young, indicated the balls are slippery. He actually said that. The things we need to be cognizant of is it can't be Pineda-like.

*Two-Way Player...J.B. Shuck?

*Oh good, ESPN hired another announcer who doesn't like young people.

*ESPN's "Only in Spring Training" stories.

*The Atlantic: Epidemics reveal the truth about the societies they hit.

*Buzzfeed: The leader of the religious sect that spread Coronavirus in South Korea, who previously said the virus was the devil trying to stop his church's growth, says sorry.

*Vice: This group frees people from medical debt, one at a time.

*Harper's: Waiting For the End of the World.

*A Musical Selection:

Thursday Morning Hot Links

PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT TODAY, Y'ALL.

*Former catcher A.J. Hinch is working with Max Stassi this Spring Training.

*Evan Gattis says his recovery is going well, but isn't putting a timetable on a return.

*Carlos Correa and depth across the organization are why the Washington Post is picking the Astros to win the AL West.

*Doug Fister got the most votes for Best Bargain Free Agent.

*FanGraphs posted their 2016 Astros Organizational Breakdown. Their Top 10: A.J. Reed, Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Daz Cameron, Colin Moran, Tyler White, Joe Musgrove, Derek Fisher, Kyle Tucker, and J.D. Davis. They list theirs out to #24 with Carson Cistulli telling us to keep an eye on pitcher Edison Frias.

*Keith Law ranked the Astros as the 17th-best farm system in baseball, and his top Astros prospects are: Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, A.J. Reed, Kyle Tucker, Daz Cameron, Joe Musgrove, Derek Fisher, Colin Moran, Michael Feliz, and Tyler White.

*"Basically, the Rangers should win a World Series as soon as possible, because the kids down in Houston might be around for a while."
-Dallas Morning News' Kevin Sherrington

Friday Morning Hot Links

Six days until Pitchers and Catchers.

*Marwin's versatility is where his value lies.

*Keith Law released his Top 100 prospects list, and TCB has the list (I let my Insider subscription lapse). Bregman at 19, Francis Martes at 40, A.J. Reed at 44, and Kyle Tucker at 67.

*All four of the full-season minor-league managers will be at Major-League Spring Training, for unity and recognition.

The Astros are also holding a "micro camp" for 10 players on February 26. "Micro" is smaller than "mini," yes? The ten players: Pitchers Mike Hauschild, Tommy Shirley, Michael Freeman, Travis Ballew, Cy Sneed; Catchers Garrett Stubbs and Jamie Ritchie; Infielders Mott Hyde and Nick Tanielu; and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.

*If you only pick one of these articles to read, make it this one, on 2015 40th Round pick Steve Naemark.

*FanGraphs measured their Depth Charts vs. FANS projections and decided that the Astros could be a scary team.

*USA Today's Ted Berg asks if Jon Singleton is ready for prime time.

*Joel Sherman notes how the Astros have shifted the way baseball values relievers.

*This Illinois columnist is predicting a Mets/Astros World Series.

*Lance McCullers will be at the PetSmart on Wertheimer at Dunvale on Saturday to help with pet adoptions.

*CC Sabathia talked about his decision to go to rehab right before the Wild Card game against the Astros.

*Bossier Parish Community College pitcher Sarah Hudek - believed to be the only woman playing college baseball - got her first win on Wednesday night.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

Hear's wut ewe knead too no:

*Jexas went to the prospective season ticket holder dinner last night.

*One day after hernia surgery, Evan Gattis walked a mile and is optimistic about his recovery time.

*Gattis' surgery frees up Spring Training ABs for younger players.

*Drellich says of Gattis' recovery the door is cracked for young guys, but it isn't wide open.

*Anthony Castrovince asks a question of all 30 teams. For the Astros: Will Gattis be ready for Opening Day?

*Here's a great profile on Lance McCullers from Tampa Bay Online. McCullers has been literally chopping wood three days a week to improve his grip and forearm strength and ran to the gym in every Italian city he and his new wife visited on their honeymoon.

*Giles and Fister are the headliners of the small group of new Astros going to camp.

*Keith Law ranked the Astros' farm system 17th in baseball (Insider subscription required).

*In 1994 Bill James predicted Hall of Fame elections for the next 25 years.

*Preston Tucker's high school retired his jersey.

*J.D. Martinez signed a 2yr/$18.5m deal with the Tigers.

Before you go: Lance McCullers has a custom PS4 controller...

Lance McCullers Astros custom PS4 controller is out of this world tight. Cc: @ControllerChaos @LMcCullers43 pic.twitter.com/xa5hSt9SKB

— ShtBallPlayrsDo (@ShtBallPlayrsDo) February 10, 2016

Friday Morning Hot Links

AL West: The Astros won on Altuve's walk-off (you can read the Masked Marvel's recap here), the Mariners won, the A's and Angels both lost, and Texas had the day off. Thus, the Astros are 1.0 back of the Angels, 7.5 up on the Rangers, 9.5 up on Seattle, and 10 up on the A's. FanGraphs gives the Astros a 43.4% chance of winning the division and a season-high 81.9% chance of making the postseason in some capacity. That's a 14.8% jump in winning the division, so I'm guessing FanGraphs adjusted for Kazmir's addition to the rotation.



On to the links:

*Luhnow struck the first blow in the race to October, writes Brian T. Smith. Luhnow:
They talk about high leverage for relievers. This is a high-leverage opportunity for our club. We're in a division with one other team that seems to be our biggest challenge to winning. We owe it to ourselves to take advantage of this.

Hank Conger:
It just shows the level of commitment from the front office and how the organization is committed to winning this year.

*Trading for Kazmir gives the Astros credibility, within the team and with the rest of the league, writes Evan Drellich.

*Lancaster's J.D. Davis sounded like Jacob Nottingham died, not got traded:
I spent my day off with Nottingham and Fisher in Anaheim on Wednesday and hung out. It was kind of a shocker...

*Keith Law says the Astros paid dearly (Insider only):
The Astros paid dearly for two months, maybe a dozen starts in the remainder of the regular season, of Kazmir, giving up a top young catching prospect and a quality right-handed starter prospect who was buried in the team's surfeit of right-handed arms.

*SI's Cliff Corcoran said the price really wasn't that high.

*Beyond the Box Score writes about how Kazmir improves the Astros' already-solid rotation.

*George Springer raised over $100,000 for charity.

*Here's the Chronicle's Big Ol' Biggio HOF section.

*We wrote about the 2014 A's as a cautionary tale yesterday about an hour before the Kazmir deal.

Wednesday Morning Link Dump

A surprisingly large dump for you this morning. Wait...

*The Astros still have money left in the checkbook, but it seems as though their big spending this off-season is pretty much over. Within that Chron link, there's a good salary breakdown by position type.

*Even though Venezuelan Winter League club Magallanes tweeted that Jose Altuve would be joining them in a couple of weeks, the Astros have not yet given their approval for him to do so.

*The Astros treated Lowrie "like a goal, not a contingency" this off-season, said Brodie Van Wagenen, Lowrie's agent.

*Keith Law, on Jed Lowrie ($):
It's a deal that underpays him based on expected performance but prices in his injury risk and the probability that he's not able to stay at shortstop for the entire deal.

*Houston signed Dan Johnson to a minor-league deal with an invitation to Major League Spring Training. Johnson has spent just 114 games in the Majors from 2008-2014, but hit a cool homer in the bottom of the 9th during G162 for the Rays that helped them get to the playoffs. So that's what the Astros will be looking for this September: playoff-clinching homers.

*Palm Beach County commissioners approved a deal to seek a land-swap with the city of West Palm Beach on a proposed Astros/Nationals Spring Training facility, but it may not happen. Line of the day comes from Palm Beach County commissioner Steve Abrams, regarding the deal:
It looks like we're trading Giancarlo Stanton for a .200 hitter on the Astros.

*Delino DeShields just wants to help the Rangers, despite being hesitant:
I was hoping I would get selected, but not by the Rangers, of all team, the Texas rival. It's a good opportunity to get my career going...They can move me around a little bit if they want to. I didn't forget how to play second base. It's only been a year. I adjusted to the outfield pretty good. I'm athletic enough to do whatever they tell me to do. Whatever role I have on this team I just want to do whatever I can to help.

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/mlb/texas-rangers/foul-territory-blog/article4523207.html#storylink=cpy

*Not sure how I missed this from earlier in the off-season but the Braves not only hired Bo Porter as their 3B coach, they hired former Astros bench coach Dave Trembley as their Director of Player Development and Minor League Field Coordinator. Former Astros catcher Robinson Cancel will manage the Braves' Gulf Coast League team.

*Wesley Wright signed with Baltimore.

Friday Morning Hot Links!

News, notes, and HOT TAKES regarding yesterday's events:

Dallas Keuchel was sad about Cosart's trade:
It hurts a lot just based on the fact that he's a hometown boy. Also he had a chance to do a lot of special things here. He's only 24 years old and shows a lot of promise. I was kind of shocked by it, but it's a business.

Hernandez:
I don't even know how I feel right now. I'm just shocked, surprised, happy, bummed I'm going to have to say bye to all those guys...It hurts, but at the same time it's a good feeling that another team wants me.

Marlins president of baseball operations:
We all recognize the cost of starting pitching, but you're talking about two, if not two close-to-Major-League-ready bats in those two players (Marisnick and Moran). We wanted to make sure we got value back.

Sports Illustrated:
Overall, Houston appears to have done exceptionally well in this trade. Moran and Marisnick aren't slam-dunk prospects, but they have high upsides, and given that the team is still deep in its rebuilding phase, the compensation pick it received only adds to the value of the club's return here. 

Keith Law (Insider-Only):
If we still consider Marisnick a prospect even though he's lost his rookie status, the Astros got two of the five best such prospects to change hands this week. Moran in particular feels like a tremendous return for Cosart, like getting an extra top-10 draft pick, which the Astros could use this year. 

Jake Marisnick might be the best defensive outfielder of Springer, Fowler, and himself. Luhnow:
We're going to have three center fielders playing in the outfield. That means not a lot of balls are going to drop and we're going to catch most everything that's hit out there. 

Luhnow, on Colin Moran:
If you would have asked me how would you like to have Appel and Moran, I would have thought there was no way to pull that off.

Moran is now the Astros' #5 prospect.

Here's an interesting article in the Visalia paper about how major league teams approach the California League.

Something happened yesterday with CSN Houston, but nobody is saying exactly what.

Updated Top 25 prospect list

Keith Law updated his Top 25 minor-league prospect list this morning (again, as always, Insider-only). How does this affect the Astros?

Standard Disclaimer: We don't pull much from pay-sites

Carlos Correa was bumped up to 2nd from 4th, Mark Appel was dropped to 16th from 11th.

Law's Mock Draft 2.0

And here we have Keith Law's Mock Draft 2.0 (again, Insider-Only). Remaining at Law's top spot is Cathedral Catholic HS pitcher Brady Aiken, though they're rumored to remain in on Carlos Rodon and Alex Jackson.

Law says that it's more likely the Astros get a below-slot deal with Aiken (who, Law says, would fall to at least #4 if the Astros don't take him) than pay full price for Rodon. And since Aiken is the better option over someone they could get below slot, he's at 1-1.

Tuesday Morning Link Dump:

Here's what you need to know in Astrosdom for Tuesday morning:

*JetHawks manager Rodney Linares says Carlos Correa has been ready for Double-A for a couple of weeks, as Evan Drellich checks out Lancaster.

*The Astros traded Raul Valdes to the Blue Jays yesterday for a PTBNL, or straight cash homey.

*Miguel Tejada signed a minor-league deal with the Marlins. Because of his positive amphetamine test, he won't be eligible to play until June 10th.

*Luis Cruz dominated for Corpus last night.

*Ben Zobrist and Hunter Pence get drafted early in Keith Law's Insider-Only 2004 Re-Draft.

Brady Aiken at the top of Law's 1st Mock Draft

In the Insider-only mock draft, ESPN's Keith Law has HS LHP Brady Aiken out of San Diego at the top of his mock draft. We don't pull much from pay-sites, but Law has Aiken, Rodon, and Alex Jackson in the mix for 1-1. He does mention how the Astros wouldn't mind pulling a 2012, and drafting someone at 1-1 who might not ask for as much money in order to maximize their overall haul (remember the Astros also have picks at #37 and #42).

Hot Draft Links

Here are some hot draft links for you while we wait to see what the bullpen has in store in the 9th inning of this game with the Tigers:

*Carlos Rodon is still 1-1 on John Manuel's mock draft for Baseball America.

*Insider-only, but Keith Law has Brady Aiken at 1-1, then Rodon, then Kolek.

*East Carolina's Jeff Hoffman (at one time a potential 1-1) will undergo Tommy John surgery.

2014 Prospect Matrix

We'll add to this post as the prospect rankings continue to come in, but I thought it might be interesting to see the alignment between the major lists. So what you have below are the Astros prospects represented on Keith Law's, Baseball Prospectus', MLB.com's Top 100-101 Prospect List, MLB Draft Insider's Top 100, FanGraphs, and Baseball America.

Name	KLaw	BPro	MLB	DrIn	FanGr	BsAm
Correa	4	5	8	3	9	7
Appel	11	21	17	15	26	39
Springer	19	20	21	19	14	18
Foltynewicz	70	43	54	81	57	59
Singleton	78	57	50	84	55	82
DeShields	80	UR	66	56	UR	UR
Velasquez	82	UR	UR	UR	67	UR
McCullers	UR	UR	52	UR	UR	77

Keith Law's Top 100 prospects

Keef Law expanded on his post from yesterday which ranked the Astros at the top of the All The Farm Systems, with his own Top 100 prospects ranking list (51-100 is here). Of course, it's Insider-Only, so we'll give you only enough information to make you consider signing up for Insider (because you know you want to HateRead Olney's biannual columns blasting the Astros).

#4: Carlos Correa (up from #24 in 2013)
Other than a lack of speed, he's close to the ideal prospect, and if he ends up following the Manny Machado route to third base, his bat will still make him a star.

#11: Mark Appel
Moving to every fifth day in pro ball might impact his stuff a little, but even if he loses 2 mph he's still a potential front-line starter with command and control of three above-average to plus offerings.

#19: George Springer (up from #43 in 2013)
I could easily see him being a consistently high-BABIP guy who strikes out 180 times a year and still hits .280 or better, because of how quick his hands are, and that player in center field would be an All-Star.

#70: Mike Foltynewicz (unranked in 2013)
It's an ace's fastball, but I think the overall package is more of a league-average to above-average starter, 200-plus innings of better performance than the Astros have seen from a starter in quite some time.

#78: Jon Singleton (down from #32 in 2013)
The floor here is a platoon regular who destroys right-handers but needs a caddie against southpaws

#80: Delino DeShields (up from #83 in 2013)
I see a 21-year-old with a lot of physical ability who needs to grow up to reach his ceiling, but he's far too young to assume he'll never be able to do it

#82: Vincent Velasquez (unranked in 2013)
He needs more reps -- he is 21 and has fewer than 200 innings of pro experience across three-plus seasons -- to see if the curve can become an average or better pitch; if it does, he's at least a mid-rotation guy, and, if not, I think he has the control and changeup to still be a No. 4 starter.

We'll post a prospect matrix later today to get a feel for how Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, the Crawfish Boxes, and Keith Law interact.

Keith Law ranks the Astros' system #1

It's an Insider-only piece, so we won't pull much from it (respecting the pay site, such as it is), but Keith Law says the Astros have the top farm system in baseball. A quick nugget:

The Astros have done everything they needed to do to restock what was a few years ago the worst system in the majors...It's been ugly, Astros fans, but hang in there.

The Top Ten:
1) Houston
2) Minnesota
3) Pittsburgh
4) Chicago Cubs
5) Boston
6) New York Mets
7) Kansas City
8) Colorado
9) San Diego
10) Baltimore

And the rest of the AL West?

13) Texas
21) Seattle
26) Oakland
29) Anaheim

Keith Law's Top 50 mid-season prospect list

Keith Law offered up his mid-season Top 50 list (Insider-only) today. Notably, Mark Appel is included. Since it's behind a paywall, we're not going to pull any write-ups from it, but here are the Astros' rankings:

#7: Carlos Correa
#9: Mark Appel
#29: George Springer
#33: Jon Singleton
#46: Mike Foltynewicz

What are you up to, Jonathan Gray?

Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray may have just cost himself a decent chunk of change when it was revealed today that he tested positive for Adderall in pre-draft testing.

Keith Law:
Adderall comprises salts of two amphetamines and is banned by MLB unless the player has a valid therapeutic use exemption. Multiple sources indicated that Gray did not have a prescription for the drug. 

He will not be suspended, but he will be subject to further testing once he signs. How will it affect his draft positioning? One of Law's sources said that it might not make much of a difference.

Note: Law has an Insider-Only post up at ESPN that has a source saying Gray might be willing to take a big discount if drafted at or near the top. Jon Heyman talked to a GM who said:
I don't think it's that big a deal. The kid may have (a condition).

UPDATE: Marshall's Aaron Blair - whom the Astros drafted in the 21st Round in 2010 out of high school - also tested positive for Adderall (BA ranked Blair #41)

That's the general consensus from people who have, you know, sources: Stupid? Yes. A huge deal? No. If the Astros can take advantage of it, perhaps it makes the decision making process more clear. We're now under 73 hours to the draft. What do you do?

Keith Law's new Mock Draft has Colin Moran at the top

Keith Law's (Insider-only) Mock Draft has UNC 3B Colin Moran at the top of the list for the Astros. Once again, we don't pull from pay-sites, but he has Bryant still in play with Gray and Appel as "options."

Mock Draft time!

Three notable Mock Drafts have come out today, so let's see what they think the Astros will do three weeks from today.

Keith Law:

Insider-only, so we won't pull anything other than the mention that "Industry Sources" believe the Astros will go with Gray as it may take less to sign him than Appel. He also says to keep a line on UNC 3B Colin Moran.

John Sickels:

Mark Appel - Gray seems to have little more momentum at this point, but I'll buck consensus slightly and slot Appel here on the theory that he makes a late charge and/or Gray slumps just a hair.

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo:
Jonathan Gray - Gray has separated himself this year, along with Mark Appel, whom the Astros didn't take a year ago.