Mayo's Mock Draft

Jonathan Mayo posted his first Mock Draft for next month's amateur draft. In said draft, Mayo has Carlos Rodon going to the Astros with the 1-1 pick.

A slow start left Rodon's status as the top pick in question, and one of the big high school pitchers below could still be Houston's choice, but here's saying the N.C. State lefty has done enough to reclaim the spot.

Meanwhile, Rodon stays atop Baseball America's 2nd Mock Draft of the Spring.

Industry opinion appears to favor Aiken as the top prospect in the draft, and he’s the rare high school player with a long-enough track record to earn the No. 1 selection. But Rodon’s trend lines continue to point in the right direction, and the Astros’ big league struggles likely bring pressure to speed up the rebuilding process in Houston. Rodon’s talent is worthy of the No. 1 pick, and so is the buzz factor he would bring.

Manuel says Rodon's "top-shelf" slider gives him more upside than Aiken. 

Astros have baseball's best farm system

Baseball America's MLB.com's Jim Callis listed the Astros' organization as the best farm system in baseball on MLB.com today.

Callis:
It wasn't always like this. Entering both the 2009 and 2010 seasons, Baseball America rated Houston's system as the worst in the game, which proved to be a harbinger of doom at the Major League level. But since then, the Astros have drafted much better and engineered several trades, pumping some much-needed young talent into the organization.

Now, Jonathan Mayo says Nay, it's the Pirates who have the best farm system in baseball.
Houston is a worthy choice, but I've gone in another direction. When trying to decide which organization has the best farm system, I try to look for a combination of impact talent -- elite prospects who could become highly productive big leaguers -- as well as depth. Taking those variables into account, I have to go with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Updated MLB prospect list

Jonathan Mayo updated the MLB.com Top 100 Prospect List today and, man, is it fun!

The Astros placed EIGHT on the Top 100 list, tied with the Red Sox for most prospects on the list by a single team. Mayo ranked the prospects with 100 points for #1, 99 points for #2 (and so on) - the franchise with the highest point total is, yes, the Astros.

Those eight prospects are:

Carlos Correa - #9
Jon Singleton - #22
George Springer - #27
Mark Appel - #29
Lance McCullers - #65
Mike Foltynewicz - #67
Jarred Cosart - #74
Delino DeShields - #80

Nolan Fontana and Domingo Santana round out the Astros Top 10, with the rest of the Top 20 Astros prospects (with summaries) listed here.

Mock Draft Update

A Mock Draft of which to keep you abreast, one week out from the Draft (next Thursday, 6pm Central).

Jonathan Mayo: Jonathan Gray
The Astros are down to five candidates: two college pitchers (Gray and Mark Appel), two college hitters (Kris Bryant and Colin Moran) and one high schooler (Clint Frazier or Austin Meadows). There are whispers regarding Bryant and Moran, but Gray is still the pick.

Mock Draft time!

Three notable Mock Drafts have come out today, so let's see what they think the Astros will do three weeks from today.

Keith Law:

Insider-only, so we won't pull anything other than the mention that "Industry Sources" believe the Astros will go with Gray as it may take less to sign him than Appel. He also says to keep a line on UNC 3B Colin Moran.

John Sickels:

Mark Appel - Gray seems to have little more momentum at this point, but I'll buck consensus slightly and slot Appel here on the theory that he makes a late charge and/or Gray slumps just a hair.

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo:
Jonathan Gray - Gray has separated himself this year, along with Mark Appel, whom the Astros didn't take a year ago.

DeShields just outside Top 100

Two days ago we summarized the Astros on Jonathan Mayo's Top 100 Prospect List and noted that Delino DeShields, who was ranked #77 last year, fell completely off the list.

How did that happen? Well, we'll discuss that later today or tomorrow, but it's worth noting that Mayo posted his 101st-110th prospect list today (saying there was "no time" to go into each of the players on the list).

DeShields made this particular list, at #102.

Mayo had some words about the passionate reaction to DeShields' fall:
You thought people were upset that Ben Affleck didn’t get a Best Director nod for “Argo”? You should talk to Astros fans about Delino DeShields Jr. Sheesh.

Update: It seems as though the lists we linked to in the original post were not pre-season rankings, they were that season's end-of-season rankings. Check out WTHB's post on the subject...

Astros place five on Top 100 Prospect List

Courtesy of KevinBassStache we get this link to MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects, where the Astros have five (!) players on the list - earning them the #12 overall farm system in baseball.

#27 - Jon Singleton
#38 - Carlos Correa
#55 - George Springer
#84 - Jarred Cosart
#85 - Delino DeShields

In their pre-season rankings, Mayo listed three Astros: Singleton (#44), Cosart (#61), and Springer (#84).

Jonathan Mayo praises Houston's future

Jonathan Mayo, MLB Draft & MiLB expert extraordinaire, has some very good things to say about the new state of the Astros' farm system and their business approach under new leadership.

From Bobby Heck:

"It was no secret that we were No. 30 in terms of our farm system," Heck said. "Now I think we've built it into a top-10 system."

If you need some happy after the last two games (and don't we all?), go read the whole thing and get excited.

Thursday morning draft updates

*Jonathan Mayo praised the Astros' draft class:
It might be easy to give credit to the team with the No. 1 overall pick, but it's not just Carlos Correa that gives the Astros a good Draft grade. Getting Correa, though, made it possible for Houston to feel confident it could draft and sign Lance McCullers, a first-round talent, in the comp round. The Astros didn't stop there, however. After taking some solid college talent, they took high-end high schoolers like 3B Rio Ruiz and OF Brett Phillips.

*3rd Round pick Brady Rodgers signed last night, and while terms were not disclosed, Rodgers knew all along he would sign:
"I knew what I wanted to do. With the Astros drafting me, it was pretty easy. The hometown team, the team I grew up loving. It's pretty simple. It was either sign or sign."

*22nd Round pick Kenny Long will sign:
“It’s something I’ve been working at for pretty much my whole life. It really hasn’t sunk in yet that I’ll be playing professional baseball, but it’s something I’m so honored to do.”

*25th Round pick Ryan Dineen doesn't know what position he'll play, but it'll be with the Astros:
"They said we'll have you come down and play wherever we need you, short, second or third. They're thrilled I'm versatile, and I'll play any one of those spots in the game for them."

*26th Round pick C.J. Hinojosa wasn't picked where he would have preferred, but it was still nice to get drafted. Will he sign?:
“I honestly don’t know. I have to sit down with my family and talk with my adviser and see what will happen.”

*27th Round pick Tanner Mathis isn't sure if he'll return to Ole Miss for his senior season, or sign with the Astros:
"As far as what happens from here, I have no idea. We'll just play it by ear. I'll be in contact with them, talk to the coaches. We'll find out what will happen pretty soon."

*28th Round pick Angel Ibanez is going to sign, after talking with his parents:
“They think it’s time. I’m going to go ahead and do that, start new.”

*29th Round pick Christian Garcia almost missed his name being called due to a jacked up internet connection, but looks like he'll sign.

Jonathan Mayo's Top 20 NL Central prospects

Jonathan Mayo has his Top 20 prospects in the NL Central, and yes, there are some Astros on it - namely Jonathan Singleton as Mayo's #1 1B prospect, and George Sprigner the #3 OF prospect.

And in this article, Mayo has his organizational preview (with a Top 20 list here, which you can click the link for Mayo's full write-up on each one):

#1 - Jonathan Singleton
#2 - Jarred Cosart
#3 - George Springer
#4 - Jonathan Villar
#5 - Mike Foltynewicz
#6 - Paul Clemens
#7 - Brett Oberholtzer
#8 - Delino DeShields
#9 - Domingo Santana
#10 - Telvin Nash
#11 - Jordan Scott
#12 - Tanner Bushue
#13 - Austin Wates
#14 - Jake Buchanan
#15 - Nick Tropeano
#16 - Juan Abreu
#17 - Kyle Weiland
#18 - Josh Zeid
#19 - Mike Kvasnicka
#20 - Ariel Ovando

Jonathan Mayo's Top 10 Prospects

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo drops his Top 10 Astros prospect list, and he kind of takes a dump on Keith Law's Top 10 list. Here's the short version:

1. Jordan Lyles - Even if he goes back to Triple-A, he'll be in Houston at some point in 2011.
2. Delino DeShields - He should hit the ground running with Class A Lexington this year.
3. Jonathan Villar - He has a plus arm and range, and can steal bases, but he's still very raw, striking out too much and making mistakes in the field as well.
4. Mike Foltynewicz - All he needs is experience to refine his stuff, and he has the chance to be a frontline starter in the future.
5. Jiovanni Mier - Now with Villar to push him, it will be interesting to see what year No. 2 has to offer.
6. Tanner Bushue - All of his pitches show flashes. Added consistency, and strength, should help him move up the ladder.
7. Ariel Ovando - He's just 17, and Astros fans will likely get to see him at a short-season club this summer.
8. J.D. Martinez - Even if he starts back in Double-A, Martinez could help out in Houston by the end of the season.
9. Jimmy Paredes - A switch-hitter, he's largely played second base, but a now-healed shoulder should allow him to play on the left side of the infield in 2011, as he moves up to the California League.
10. Austin Wates - He may not have a ton of power, but his speed should make him a good basestealer. It also should allow him to play a decent center field.

Lyles listed as 10th-best RHP prospect

Jonathan Mayo listed his 10 best RHP prospects, and for once, Jordan Lyles is on the list - at #10.

The Astros seem to be turning things around with a youth movement as a once-somnambulant farm system is starting to produce players. Next up could be Lyles, who is only 20 years old. He's got a three-pitch mix --fastball, breaking ball, changeup --and in many ways his secondary stuff is better than the fastball. But the heater and the other pitches get better grades because he commands them so well and he's got a very good feel for pitching. He's in the No. 5 starter mix in Houston, but even if he goes down to Triple-A to start the year, Astros fans should see him in 2011.

Analysis of the Berkman deal

Keith Law has an Insider-Only analysis of the Berkman deal, and it's fairly complimentary:

Houston could easily have gotten nothing in this deal, but both guys coming back their way have some value.

On Melancon:
Arm action is a train wreck, but he has power stuff, including a 92 to 94 mph fastball, a power curve in the low- to mid-80s and a hard change. On the right night, he'll show three above-average pitches.

On Paredes:
Toolsy, athletic infielder without a clear position. He could end up in centerfield long term, but he is still very crude overall and his swing and body don't point to future power. He needs to learn to take a walk more than once every week and a half.

There's more, but I'm uncomfortable pulling too much stuff from a pay-article. Meanwhile, Jonathan Mayo drops some knowledge on us about the two:

On Melancon:
Melancon is a hard worker with outstanding makeup, possessing the kind of aggressive mentality teams like to see in a short reliever. The Yankees had hoped he'd be a seventh- or eighth-inning guy for them, but he has the stuff and makeup to close. The one thing he needs to do is command his fastball better. He's been elevating too many of them, making them too hittable for Major League hitters. If he can command the lower part of the zone better, Houston could have a future closer on their hands.

On Paredes:
He should hit for average in the future and many feel he'll grow into power as he matures. Plate discipline -- 18 walks in 99 games -- has been an issue, and it remains to be seen how much he can improve in that area of his game. He had arm surgery a while back, but he's 100 percent now and has a plus arm. In all likelihood, he'll have to use that arm in the outfield and could have the tools to play either center or right. His hands and feet don't work well enough to stay in the middle infield, but with a plus run tool, plus arm and plus body, there's still plenty to like about this high-ceiling prospect.

Jonathan Mayo's Mock Draft

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo posted his first 20 picks today. Who does he have the Astros taking at #8/#19?

#8: Zack Cox, 3B - Arkansas
A rib-cage injury has kept Cox largely out of action the past several games, but that shouldn't hurt his Draft stock, with many believing he's the best advanced bat in the country. A guy who can get to the bigs quickly and contribute might be just what the Astros are looking for.

#19: Delino DeSheilds, Jr, OF - Woodward Park Academy (GA)
The buzz about Houston liking DeShields has been loud, to the point where some think the Astros would take him with their first pick to make sure they got him. In this scenario, they get the safe college guy up top and the high school toolsy guy here.

Mayo's 10 Prospects to Watch

Apparently it's Astros Day for Jonathan Mayo, who posted his 10 Astros Prospects to watch. They are:

Jay Austin
Jason Castro
Collin DeLome
Jon Gaston
Chris Johnson
Chia-Jen Lo
Jordan Lyles
Tommy Manzella
Jiovanni Mier
Ross Seaton

There were some subtractions from last year's list:
Felipe Paulino
Bud Norris
Brian Bogusevic:
As a guy who has the skills to play an outfield corner well (that pitching arm works from the outfield too), he will need to show he can hit for more power than he did last year.

Mayo's 2010 Organizational Preview

Jonathan Mayo posted an organizational preview of Eddie's Farm this morning. What does he say?

Don't look now, but the Astros farm system is starting to pay some dividends, too. It's still not where it needs to be, especially in terms of depth, but there are some homegrown players just about ready to contribute, with some more intriguing ones down the pike...

...Much of the talk surrounding the improvement of the previously barren Astros farm system has centered around the work of scouting director Bobby Heck, who's overseen the past two Drafts. He's shown a willingness to go a little off the board, and it's already playing dividends at the highest level in the form of 2008 first-round pick Jason Castro.

The other benefits may take a bit longer to be felt in Houston and, truth be told, there's still not a ton of talent in the organization. But it is encouraging that there are some legitimate prospects at various rungs on the ladder.

And some predictions:

Hitter of the Year: Jiovanni Mier
Unsure of how California League standouts like Clemens and Jonathan Gaston will fare up a level, we like how Mier, last year's first-rounder, kicked things off. He'll handle the jump to full-season ball just fine and compete for the South Atlantic League MVP.

Pitcher of the Year: Jordan Lyles
It's hard not to go with last year's winner since he's only going to get better. The only thing that could hold him back statistically would be extended time in Class A Lancaster, but even that might not keep him from being the organization's best in ERA and strikeouts.

Mayo, on the Astros' 2009 draft class

Jonathan Mayo has a look at the Astros' 2009 draft class:

Houston went the high-school route with their first four picks, clearly going with who they thought was the best available player in each spot instead of perhaps going with "safer" college players who could conceivably get to the big leagues faster. They did make up for that later on with a slew of college and junior-college picks. The final tally showed 27 of the 36 players signed did come from those ranks...

...And perhaps most important, the Astros didn't waste any time getting this talent going in the system. With just one exception, every pick who signed did so before June was over. If nothing beats experience, then the Astros are way ahead of the game with this Draft class.

On Jiovanni Mier:
The top high-school shortstop in the Draft class, Mier should actually be able to stay at short thanks to a great arm, smooth actions and good range. He impressed those who saw him in the Appalachian League during his debut on both sides of the ball. He hit .276/.380/.484 over 192 at-bats and looks like the Astros hitting prospect with the highest upside throughout the system.

On Tanner Bushue:
Bushue didn't get to pitch a ton even though he signed quickly because of a back injury. He did get in 22 1/3 Gulf Coast League innings, posting a 2.42 ERA and .220 batting average against, striking out 19 and walking just five. He's expected to be fine for Spring Training and it should be interesting to see how this projectable right-hander progresses when healthy.

On Telvin Nash:
Coming from the same high school as 2008 No. 1 overall pick Tim Beckham, Nash has some serious raw power. He didn't show much of it during his debut in the GCL, where he hit .218/.280/.324 with 45 strikouts in 40 games. He did show some improvement with a .259/.317/.379 August, but he'll have to tighten up his swing some so he can tap into that power potential.

On Jonathan Meyer:
Taken in the compensation round following the third, thanks to not signing 2008 third-rounder Chase Davidson, Meyer was a versatile high schooler who played the infield, caught and pitched. The Astros are developing him as a third baseman and he has the chance to be a good one. He started switch-hitting not long ago and while he's behind from the left side, it looks like it might work. He played 62 games for Rookie League Greeneville alongside Mier and hit .190/.301/.299 with 69 strikeouts in 221 at-bats.

On B.J. Hyatt:
The Astros love the pre-Draft workout and Hyatt is one who likely got taken and signed because of how he looked in his workout with the team. He's strong-armed and projectable and his stats with Greeneville as a junior-college product might point to his future role: 1.64 ERA, 11 strikeouts in 11 innings as a reliever; 8.36 ERA in 8 1/3 innings, 18 hits allowed, nine walks and four strikeouts in three starts.

Sleeper Picks:
Dallas Keuchel, J.D. Martinez, Grant Hogue, and Mike Schurz

Projected Fast-Riser:
The Astros used Boston College senior sign James Macdonald (18th round) as a reliever with Tri-City and he pitched well in that role. Should he stay there, he could get there sooner than most.

Progress!

Jonathan Mayo's look at Eddie's Farm underscores how far the System has to go, but sees some light in the midst of fog and darkness.

Ricky Bennett:
"That's always an ongoing process. You're never where you want to be and you're never as bad as people think you are. From a prospect standpoint, guys are starting to go through the system. At every level, we feel we're making progress."

What's the major-est problem?:
"If you look throughout, the depth, it's going to take time to improve the depth. We feel happy with the prospects, though, how they're progressing and where they are in the development process."

MLB.com's Pre-season Organizational Prospects of the Year: Jason Castro / Jordan Lyles:

On Castro:
The prediction was that the 10th overall pick in the 2008 Draft would excel in his first full season, proving he was worth the high selection while playing across two levels. That was pretty much spot on as Castro split the season between Lancaster and Corpus Christi before heading to play for Team USA's gold medal-winning team in the IBAF World Cup. Castro hit a combined .300 with a .380 OBP and .446 SLG over 119 games.

On Lyles:
It seemed like a tossup between young guns Lyles and Ross Seaton, but while Seaton was solid, Lyles was even better. Pay no attention to the win-loss record -- Lexington hit just .237 as a team. Instead, look at his 3.24 ERA, his 167 strikeouts (fourth overall in the Minors), his 10.39 K/9 rate and his extremely low walk rate (38 in 144 2/3 IP).

MLB.com's Post-season Selections: Koby Clemens / Jordan Lyles:

On Clemens:
Critics will say Clemens isn't a prospect, that prior to this season, he'd done nothing of note offensively, that his 2009 season was a product of one of the most extreme hitter's parks in Minor League baseball. That might be true, but it's impossible to look past what Clemens did, still at age 22, in the California League. Friendly confines or not, Clemens hit .341 overall with 22 homers and 121 RBIs. His .620 slugging percentage was second best in all of the Minors. He was fourth in batting average, tied for third in doubles and led all of the Minors in RBIs. And he hit pretty well on the road, too. He'll need to prove himself at the next level, but he's definitely worth watching in '10.

More on Lyles:
The numbers mentioned above made him an obvious choice for this honor. His season didn't start out all that well, with a 5.00 ERA after his first four starts. From there, though, he was pretty consistent, with monthly ERAs of 2.48, 3.18, 3.86 and 2.89 before finishing off with a one-run start in September. That he did that in his first full season at the age of 18 makes it even more exciting to see what he does for an encore.

Minor League Player of the Year

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo is leading a discussion regarding the Minor League Player of the Year:

Mayo lists six nominees for hitters: Oakland's Chris Carter, Oakland's Grant Desme, Seattle's Alex Liddi, San Francisco's Buster Posey, and our very own Koby Clemens and Jon Gaston.

There's a disclaimer about hitting in Lancaster, but what do you think?

Note to self: Everything is faster than high school

Apparently, as you progress from high school to the minors, things speed up. So says 1st Round pick Jiovanni Mier.

"I haven't gotten an actual ground ball yet to throw over. We had a double-play ball [Sunday]. Well, I thought for sure it'd be a double play. The runners were really fast and they beat it out. I knew it was going to be much faster, but it's a lot quicker than I expected. Everything is much faster. I'm coming from high school, so obviously the pitching is much harder, the runners are faster. You have to be on your toes. High school competition wasn't too bad, but it's a huge step to the pitchers, they're much more advanced. In high school, they're basically fastball, curve. Here, they've got everything else and they can do a lot more with their pitches."

Jonathan Mayo:
He gained a reputation in high school with his good hands, range and above all else, his defensive instincts. He's not the fastest player, but he makes up for that with terrific positioning and anticipation. He's simply got a feel for playing the premium spot in the infield and goes about his business with a quiet confidence. Fans in Greeneville, and if all goes according to plan, eventually in Houston, will get to see all of it on display.