Sunday Morning Hot Links

*When the Astros acquired Gerrit Cole pretty much everybody said that, with a tweak in his mechanics, he should return to form. Well, A.J. Hinch says Cole doesn't need it:
Gerrit Cole is pretty damn good. He's been an effective big league pitcher. Did he give up a few home runs last year? Yeah. Did he have a slightly down season compared to his standards? Yes. That doesn't mean he can't be a top elite pitcher in the American League just given his stuff, his makeup and his ability to pitch.

*Brian T. Smith: Jim Crane knows he has a team that's built to last.

*Ken Giles worked on his endurance this offseason, and he cares not for your worries about him.

*In The Athletic (subscription required) Francis Martes has made the Astros well-pleased with his refined delivery.

Here's a similar story in the Chronicle. Hinch:
He's throwing as hard as anybody in camp. It's still really early, but he came really prepared.

*Brady Rodgers and Jandel Gustave - both coming off Tommy John surgery in 2017 - are on a restricted program that involves some "light throwing."

*Luhnow said that, had Colin Moran not fouled a ball off his face, the Astros might not have traded him to the Pirates:
I think had he been given that opportunity, I think he would have hit .300, I think he would have hit for power. We might not have traded him because we might have wanted to figure out a way to keep him on our club.

*Luhnow talked to Newsday's David Lennon about the slow offseason and the thinking behind the front office slow-play:
We all have great young players in our system and on our big-league teams. And because the investment is so high in young players, they get to the big leagues fairly early. They're still developing at the big leagues, and so swapping one of the young players out for an established veteran is not as attractive today as it would have been five years ago or 10 years ago...It could be that there's just simply fewer spots because a lot of the younger players are taking up spots and they're contributing. It doesn't explain everything, but part of the dynamic is that we're doing a good job as an industry developing young talent and valuing that talent. 

You look at who would make a list of the Great GMs in the game right now, and it's a fairly short list: Theo, Luhnow, Dayton Moore, Billy Beane (?), Brian Cashman. How did they get there? It's through drafting - and developing - that talent. We are now in a cycle in which GMs that rely on trades and free agent signings to bolster their team aren't doing so well (see: Dipoto, Jerry). Perhaps the most important "skill" for a GM right now is the ability to draft well.

Look at the playoff teams from 2017 and how many players on the current 40-Man roster - with 1.0+ years of service time - were acquired through the draft, signed as an amateur free agent, or a Rule 5 pick:

Colorado: 14
Washington: 13
Cleveland: 12
Minnesota: 12
Arizona: 11
Boston: 10
Houston: 9
Los Angeles: 9
New York: 8
Chicago: 5

Okay, I'll be honest, I didn't think Chicago would rank last here, but it is what it is. The average number of players who meet this criteria for 2017 playoff teams is 11.1 players/per roster.

Let's look at the teams that finished under .500 with the same criteria:

New York Mets: 15
San Francisco: 13
Detroit: 12
Arlington: 11
Baltimore: 10
Pittsburgh: 9
Cincinnati: 9
Chicago White Sox: 8
Philadelphia: 8
Toronto: 7
Anaheim: 6
Kansas City: 6
Miami: 6
Seattle: 6
San Diego: 5
Tampa Bay: 4
Oakland: 3
Atlanta: 2

The average number of players who meet this criteria on sub-.500 teams is 7.0 players.

There are a host of asterisks that could go along with this list: maybe you traded for a guy in A-ball and you developed him into a Major-Leaguer (see: Martes, Francis) and, as a result, he's not on this list. Maybe your team sucks, and the guys that have made this particular cut simply aren't very good, and that's why your team was 64-98 (cough, Mets/Tigers, cough). There are also issues with making this an annual exercise: the White Sox, Padres, and Braves are going to be good soon, but they won't show up as highly on this list because the building blocks they're using were acquired through trades. But I'll let the point stand. I guess.

*Riley Ferrell talked about getting notified of his Spring Training invitation while duck hunting:
About 3:30pm, birds [were] about to start coming in, [and] I was excited for that. I get this text message, and I'm like, 'I don't know who this is.' Looked at it, and I was like 'Oh, I got invited to big league camp. That's pretty cool.' No longer was I worried about birds. 

*2016 4th Round pick Brett Adcock (117Ks in 107.2IP at Buies Creek last season) is ready for the season:
I obviously have things I need to fine-tune. If I didn't, I'd be in the big leagues right now. I'm just trying to make myself 1 percent better each day. If I can do that, hopefully I can end up in the right place. 

*Josh Reddick, in all his Josh Reddickness (Reddickulousness?), talked about the ballistic missile scare in Hawaii:
I went back to my room (after it was clear that the alert was not real) and it was actually frustrating, because me and my girlfriend were going to visit with the Dolphins that morning. We got there on time. We got to play with the dolphins that morning. It was plenty of time. She wasn't even worried about dying; she was worried about seeing the dolphins. I said, 'Those dolphins can wait, we can see them tomorrow if we're still here.' Still had a great time. 

*Rich Hill has chilled out about the 2017 World Series. In a sample poll of Rich Hill and myself, 50% of respondents have chilled out about the 2017 World Series.

*If you find yourself in Fresno on May 12 you can pick up this sweet Carlos Correa Starting Lineup figure.

*Eric Hosmer signed an 8yr/$144m deal (with an opt-out after five years) with the Padres.

*The Rangers have backed out of the deal to sign reliever Seung-Hawn Oh after concerns about his MRI. So here comes a bunch of editorials comparing them to the dastardly Astros and their treatment of Brady Aiken, yes?

*Chris Archer says the Rays could have the best rotation in MLB. And then they traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins, so who knows now?

*Fernando Abad, who signed a new deal with the Phillies for 2018:
2010-2012 w/HOU: 84.2IP, 5.10 ERA / 1.56 WHIP, 1.97 K:BB ratio.
2013-present:            233IP, 3.13 ERA / 1.21 WHIP, 2.58 K:BB ratio.

*The Haunting of Lindsey Jacobellis.

*From No Depression: A musician's life on social media.

*The Globe and Mail's Michael Harris: I Have Forgotten How To Read.

#Astros Joe Smith 2017 Pitch Quality

5.87 QOPA

Late Break (Top 1% MLB)
Horizontal Break (Top 1% MLB)
Location (Top 6% MLB) pic.twitter.com/DDMtkyltsl

— MLB Quality of Pitch (@qopbaseball) February 17, 2018

On Bo and Beanings.

I was going to write only about Bo today.  Not about actually what he is doing at the moment, but how he seems to have changed compared to last year.  I always thought that Bo was the perfect manager for a rebuilding ball-club.  He seemed supportive, firm and fair, but was careful to ensure that whatever happened (hypothetically like, say, 110+ losses) there were lessons to be learnt.  Not only learnt, but internalised.  Lessons to be understood, but with the aim of improvement and upskilling.

This year, it has been a little different.  The 18 second pause (or 17 seconds, depending on whose articles you read) attracted a lot of press.  Then, in quick succession, #Buntgate (enough already!), a frustrating blown save (Qualls), a brief reprieve because the stories were positive about the Astros for two days, then another horrible blown save.  And now, #Beangate (actually, #Buttgate may be a better descriptor).  And the press is again overwhelmingly negative.

The first two games of the series have been brutal.  Brutal in the kind of eviscerating, frustrating and confidence-shattering way.  Losses that would be best described as a beat-down by someone much faster, stronger and more skilled then you.  But then, you claw your way back, and... it happens all over again.  Back to the pit of despair for you!

If this was 2013's version of Bo, I imagine that the lessons to be understood would be along the lines of the idea that baseball is nothing but a series of events, and a reminder to be in the best, most positive and relaxed frame-of-mind for each and every play.  Doesn't matter if you are down by 5.  Doesn't matter if you are winning by 1.  Treat it all as a bunch of individual plays all rolled together, do your best at each one, and remember that failure most of the time is often part of the game.  Zen-master Bo.

2014 Bo seems different.  He has an edge this year.  In 2013, Bo was thrown out of his first game on August 8.  In a brutal season - with offensive ineptitude, blown saves, entire series' where the team was not even close to winning, and culminating in a 111-loss season.  2013 was as bad as it is going to get, and Bo seemingly maintained a positive, upbeat and supportive stance.

This year, Bo has shown a lot more emotion.  He was thrown out tonight, most likely asking very reasonable questions of the home plate ump, the impressively tall Jordan Baker.  I think Ghandi would have been thrown out after Fernando Abad was not tossed for his contribution to #Buttgate.  It was an odd and un-understandable umpiring call, especially given the quick hook that Paul Clemens had been given the day prior.  Perhaps the umpires had dinner reservations, and didn't want another pitcher having to warm up.

Briefly, back to Bo before we head to the analysis of #Buttgate.  I don't know what is going on with Bo.  The only time I get to see Bo is on the rare occasions that I get to watch entire games on TV.  Most of my watching is highlight packages, and they (rightly) don't tend to concentrate on the managers.  I listen to him during interviews on the radio broadcasts, and he strikes me as focussed, supportive and articulate - articulate in a way that many baseball guys simply aren't.  Bo seems more than capable of making a subtle point through verbal communication, rather than 18 second press-conference pauses.

So, I don't know what is going on with Bo.  I think it is kind of like spotting an iceberg on a satellite image (like, for example the crowdsourcing attempts at finding MH370) and guessing the shape and weight of the whole iceberg.  You see a one dimensional image of the iceberg, only the tip is visible, and the conclusions that you draw must therefore be limited.  I see very little of Bo.  Goodness knows what is going on behind the scenes.  But I will say this: if he is under-pressure with his job, and gets fired, given this talent to work with, it would be an incredible shame.

In many ways, the 2014 Astros are worse than the 2013 Astros - at least the 2013 edition had some Veteran Goodness like Rick Ankiel and Carlos Pena to add some maturity and experience.  These guys have Dexter Fowler, Chad Qualls, Matt Albers, Jose Altuve, Scott Feldman and Jason Castro, and the latter two been injured most the the time.  Only the pitchers have even reached free-agency.  Most of the rest of the team are either practically or actually rookies.  This remains a seriously offensively-challenged unit, and given how fluctuant bullpens are, this years' more expensive and more experienced bullpen may be just as bad.  But that is a topic for another day.

Bo, hang in there.

These two games between the Astros and the A's have been significant for butt-beanings.  Nothing up around the head, thankfully.  The highest threatening pitch was the first HBP of Brandon Moss, which caught him on the jersey around his bicep.  Thank goodness no head-shots  - that would be really losing perspective.

The series started with George Springer being hit in the first inning by Scott Kazmir.  In isolation, this is the worst - the most obvious beaning of the lot.  Except, a beaning would have made no sense.  Runners on first and third, one out, first inning, up 2 runs, 0-2 count.  Kazmir had been having control problems... but goodness me.  Catcher set up low and outside, and Kazmir must have missed his spot by three feet.  Right in the knee.  If you were going to send a message by moving the feet or hitting the hotshot rookie, that pitch would have been perfect execution.  At least, on an 0-0 count, no runners on, up by 5, bottom of the 8th or something.  Who knows, I am not inside Kazmir's head, but I can't see a scenario where that is a deliberate beaning.  But if it was, it was brilliant.

The next inning, Brandon Moss was hit by an overthrown curveball on the upper arm from Brett Oberholtzer.  Again, Obie had some trouble with control early, and this wasn't deliberate.  Plus, the whole off-speed thing was a serious giveaway.

You would have seen or heard about Clemens' beaning of Lowrie if you are reading this article.  This was the next incident.  Many factors of this butt-bean would encourage one to think that it was likely to have been deliberate - the past animosity between the two, the count, the stage of the game, etc, etc.  But I imagine that Porter would have been pissed that the beaning occurred, unless he suggested it.  He would have been upset because: 6th inning, taxed bullpen, 5th starter (for all intents and purposes) going the next day, no Matt Albers for the last 2 days, Josh Fields also unlikely to throw because he has gone three days in a row.... plus the beaning pretty much ensures one, if not two, extra pitchers are needed.  That puts the Astros in a worse position, and possibly forces Albers on to the DL to get a fresh arm for the rest of the series.

Today's beanings started with Brandon Moss in the 9th.  Hit twice in one inning - I believe that this has only happened once before in the AL - Brady Anderson hit by Mike Morgan in May 1999.  But goodness me... have a look where Moss sets up his back foot.  If he ever led off a game, and the batters box was not a scuffed up mess, I swear that his back foot would be over the line by inches.  He is clearly trying to pull the ball, and pretty much daring the pitcher to throw inside.  This may be some karma from the Craig Biggio Era coming back to bite the Astros.  But both times the catcher set up inside, and both times the pitcher missed in and a little up.  Even the A's commentary team made a point of saying neither was intentional.

But then it got silly.  Abad clearly butt-beaned Castro second hitter of the next inning.  Look, for the sake of comparison, where Castro's back foot is set up.  No one on.  0-0 count.  Castro jawed to the bench afterward.  And somehow, Abad was not thrown out.  Wow.

The A's also managed to cede any moral high ground that they had before.  Prior to this beaning, this was clearly an Astros-Lawrie thing, as evidenced by the apparent lack of support shown to Lowrie by the A's broadcast team and teammates.  Now, by butt-beaning Castro, you are picking out the best player and throwing at him clearly and deliberately.  Now it becomes an Astros-A's thing.  If this goes on, that is the reason.

Obviously, there has been a lot written on this situation, in both the media and the blogosphere.  Many of these centre around "the Unwritten Rules of Baseball", and how stupid they are.  Many cite such bulletproof arguments as "isn't it a crime for grown men to try and injure each other by throwing things??" and so on and so forth.  My take on it is this:  The Unwritten Rules of Baseball are there for the players to manage their own behaviour.  They aren't for the fans, for the TV audience or anyone else.  It is a way that the players can stop douch-ery amongst their own kind.

That, to me, is the beauty of baseball.  It is, essentially, a series of confrontations with a limited number of outcomes inside a zero-sum environment.  Luck plays a big part.  Tiny, tiny things can make the biggest difference - a matter of millimetres when the ball contacts the bat, the kick off an uneven bit of turf on the infield, the effect that a breeze has on a fly ball.  So baseball isn't always fair.  And these confrontations are repeated over and over again inside a game.  And the games are repeated over and over again.  And sometimes you win, and sometimes you lose.  But you won't win them all, and you won't lose them all, and when someone wins, someone else loses.  There is no game without an opponent, and therefore opponents are worthy of respect.  And just because you win today, doesn't mean you win tomorrow.  So you manage each victory and loss with dignity and sportsmanship.  And respect the opposition, at all times, because everyone is only a freak injury or accident off never playing again, or never playing to the same level again.  (I loved Carlos Hernandez).

And when someone steps outside that, the baseball fraternity frowns.

And when non-players, and poorly informed people comment on the Unwritten Rules, that annoys me.  The rules may be stupid and illogical, but they are there.  And they are there for a reason, have developed for a reason, and are maintained for a reason.  You see, commentators are all pretty much outside the game (with very few exceptions).  We are satellites over the game, seeing the tips of icebergs.  We see very little of what is actually going on.  We know nothing about how far below the surface the iceberg extends.  Only those in the game really know the full context.

I am a doctor, working in a small area of medicine.  I know most people who work near me - very well.  I know who is good, and who is less good.  I know who is frikking dangerous.  I have a mental list of doctors that I would allow family members to go to.  And it isn't a long list.  I know my profession.

The players know their profession.  They know who the guys are the play hard and fair, and who oversteps the mark.  They know the classy players, and they know the self-obsessed players.  They know who rubs the opposition's nose in it, and who doesn't.  Who knows what is going on behind the scenes, or what other events may lie behind this incident.

So when Bo said "I think the game of baseball takes care of itself", then pointed out that George Springer's HBP preceded Lowrie's, this is what I think he was meaning.  He wasn't, as some have suggested, going crazy, or blowing a fuse.  At least I hope not, because that would be a tragedy.  There isn't an easily painted hero and villain here and suggesting otherwise is lazy.  This is a complex and fluid situation between two teams that play each other another 14 times.

And baseball will take care of itself.  As it has always done.

Astros claim two more on waivers

Following the return of Jordan Schafer to the Barves, the Astros were far from done making moves yesterday. They claimed two players off waivers from the D-Backs - righty reliever Sam Demel and middle infielder Jake Elmore.

Demel, 27, has 72 games (63.2 IP) of big league experience spread across the last three seasons, with a cumulative 4.95 ERA, 6.8 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9. He spent most of 2012 in AAA Reno, posting a 4.07 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 in 56 games (66.1 IP) there.

Elmore, 25, is a 2B/SS who made his MLB debut in 2012, finishing the year with a .191/.247/.250 slash line, 0 HR, 7 RBI in 68 ABs with Arizona. He had a career year in AAA Reno, however, swinging to a .344/.442/.465 slash line, 1 HR, 73 RBI in 511 ABs while earning both mid-season and post-season PCL All-Star honors.

Beyond that, Houston also outrighted five pitchers to AAA Oklahoma City - Fernando Abad, Sergio Escalona, Edgar Gonzalez, Jose Valdez, and Kyle Weiland. This moves Weiland from the 60-day DL to the OKC roster, while the other four become unrestricted free agents.

After all was said and done, Houston's 40-man roster now stands at 36.

McTaggart's minor-league updates

Brian McTaggart posted his minor-league notebook, where we find that:

-Delino DeShields will be 20 years old tomorrow.
-Bobby Borchering (acquired in the Chris Johnson trade) was moved by Arizona from 3B to OF. Now the Astros are moving him back. Oh yes, and he hurt his ankle.
-George Springer was hit in the head by a stray pitch last Friday, and hasn't played since, with the Astros making sure he doesn't have a concussion.
-Fernando Abad is being moved - once again - back to the rotation. By my count, this is the fourth time his role has changed in the last two seasons.
-Jarred Cosart has been sent to Kissimmee with a continuation of his blister issues, but could return to OKC before the end of the season. Due to this, it's hard to see him as a September call-up...

Astros claim Steve Pearce

According to MASN's Roch Kubatko, the Astros have claimed Steve Pearce off waivers from the Orioles.

Pearce is a 29-year old OF/1B, and was the 8th Round pick by the Pirates in 2005. In parts of six seasons (career-high 60 games in 2009), Pearce is a .235/.304/.375 hitter. In 83 PAs for Baltimore in 2012, Pearce is hitting. 254/.321/.437, with 17K:8BB.

Also, the Astros optioned Enerio Del Rosario and Aneury Rodriguez to Oklahoma City, and then sent Fernando Abad with them to act as a chaperone, in order to allow Armando Galarraga to make the start tonight against Wandy's Pittsburgh Pirates. Rhiner Cruz has to stay on the roster, or get offered back to the Mets, who might actually take him back.

Meat Wagon update

Bud Norris is unlikely to start on Sunday due to the sprained knee he suffered against the Giants on Tuesday.

Mills:
"He said he was still a little tentative with it to where he wasn't sure if he was actually going to feel it when he landed."

Wilton Lopez is headed to the DL with a sprained right elbow. Fernando Abad has been activated. Lopez has appeared in 32 games - 4th-most in baseball (and two games behind Wesley Wright, the 2nd-most-used reliever in baseball).

And it looks like Carlos Lee will be back tomorrow (Sunday). Measure your celebrations accordingly.

From the Office of the County Clerk - G20: Astros @ Reds

El Escorpion and the Astros roughed up the Reds in the 3rd/4th innings, for a 6-4 win.

Big story (with a big bang) was Carlos Lee leaving in the first inning with a sprained left ankle. X-Rays were negative, but Lee is likely done for the weekend.

Jason Castro led off the 3rd with a single, Wandy bunted him over, and Jordan Schafer struck out looking. With two outs, Jose Altuve (El Escorpion, so named by Appy Astros) tripled to score Castro, and J.D. Martinez singled to knock in Altuve for a 2-0 lead.

In the 4th inning, Jed Lowrie doubled, Bogusevic reached on an error, Chris Johnson doubled to score Lowrie, Castro got an RBI groundout, and Schafer singled in Johnson to make it a 5-0 lead. After Jordan Schafer stole 2nd base, Altuve doubled in Schafer to give the Astros a 6-run lead.

The Reds got one back in the bottom of the 5th, and another in the 6th to close it to 6-2. Cincinnati threatened in the 8th, with Drew Stubbs striking out, but reaching first on Fernando Rodriguez' wild pitch. Stubbs then stole second, and reached third on Castro's throwing error, all with no outs. Frodriguez got Votto to groundout, and struck Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick to strike out swinging to end the threat. Sigh, but the Reds weren't done.

Fernando Abad came in for the bottom of the 9th, and got Scott Rolen to fly out to center, but then gave up 790 feet of homeruns to Jay Bruce and Devin Mesoraco, and was mercifully pulled and replaced by Brett Myers, who finished off the game.

*It's the fourth time in five starts that Wandy has made it 6IP in 2012, and his third straight quality start. It was also the second straight outing where Wandy has thrown 100+ pitches.

*Wandy still hasn't given up a homer in 2012 - his longest streak since 2009, when he went eight straight starts to open the season without giving up the long ball.

*By striking out the side, Frodriguez has struck out five of the last 16 batters he has faced, and now has 9K in 9.2IP. It was the first time he had struck out all three batters in an inning.

*Fernando Abad's nightmare 2012 continues...of the eight batters he has faced in 2012, three of them have taken him deep. The only hits he has allowed have been homers.

*With Jordan Schafer's successful reaching of 1st base, he has now reached base in each of the first 20 games - the longest stretch to open a season since Ricky Gutierrez reached in the first 23 games of the 1998 season (three starts after not reaching base for the first time in 1998, Gutierriez would get the only "hit" off Kerry Wood in his 20K game).

*The Astros scored four of their six runs with two outs, bringing their two-out run total to 37, or 38.9% of their runs. The National League, as a whole, have scored 38.2% of their runs with two outs.

*Jose Altuve was 2x5 and, through four games on this road trip (all of them multi-hit games), he's hitting .556/.579/.944 - a 1.523 OPS.

*After going hitless in 14 plate appearances between April 21-24, J.D. Martinez now has 5 hits in his 13PAs.

*And after Jason Castro opened the season with three hits in his first eight games (29 PAs) for a .120/.214/.160, he has a five game hitting streak, and is hitting .400/.455/.550, with eight hits in 20ABs.

*With the win, the Astros are 2-5 in series opening games.

*The Point At Which An Important Thing Happened in the Game, From Which There Was No Doubt of the Outcome: Obviously the 4th inning, as those four runs gave the Astros the cushion they needed to win the game. But within that inning, Brandon Phillips' error gave the Astros an extra out, and they scored in three of the next four ABs.

*Man of the Match: Jose Altuve!

*Goat of the Game: Fernando Abad - this is likely going to be a short stint with the big league team.

Tranzactionz!

So I guess that shoulder exam in Houston yesterday didn't go so well, as Kyle Weiland has been placed on the DL with shoulder soreness - the two most vague and scariest words in the pitcher's vocabulary ("Joe West" coming in squarely in 2nd place).

Also, Marwin Gonzalez has been placed on the paternity list, so it seems that congratulations are in order.

To complement these two moves, the Astros have brought up Fernando Abad and hot-hitting Brian Bixler from Oklahoma City. Bixler has been flat-out raking at OKC, hitting .364/.417/.545 in his last ten games - and that's after going 2x12 with 6K:1BB in his last three games.

I'm quite surprised the Astros didn't call up a starter to replace Weiland. Under the current schedule, the rotation would go:
Today: Wandy
Saturday: Harrell
Sunday: Norris
Monday: Happ
Tuesday: Wandy

So unless the Astros plan on making another change in advance of Tuesday's start, Wandy would go on short rest, or some reliever will make a spot start. Unless there's something I'm just not thinking of...

Abad optioned to OKC

So the Astros have optioned Fernando Abad to Triple-A Oklahoma City. It's not a surprise - the Astros had too many relievers, and Abad had a bad (heh) Friday night.

As was mentioned by Subber and AstroBrit, this leaves Wesley Wright as the only lefty in the bullpen.

What The Mills?

So whenever it's called for, we'll run a little feature called "What The Mills?" where we examine a particular scenario from the previous game and try to figure out just what Mills was thinking.

For Game 1 (and the County Clerk alluded to this in his recap): Letting Fernando Abad throw to Troy Tulowitzki.

The Situation: Top of the 9th, two outs, Rockies lead 4-3. Tulowitzki up.

The Outcome: Tulowitzki hit a monster home run to put the game just out of reach.

What The Mills: For his career, Tulowitzki has hit .319/.399/.555 against LHPs, hitting a homer in 4.5% of his PAs against LHPs (compared to a .283/.351/.489 line, and 4.0% homer rate against RHPs). In 2011, Tulowitzki's line against LHPs was .349/.418/.631 - the 1.049 OPS tying him for 4th-highest against lefties in all of baseball (behind Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp, and Matt Wieters).

Furthermore, Abad isn't so good at getting RHBs out. In 54 PAs against RHBs in 2011, Abad only got 28 of them out, allowing a .381/.472/.786 line. Lefties don't fare nearly as well, with a .630 OPS against Abad. But those righties...

Rationale #1: Why you gotta bring up old crap? All that was 2011. Don't know if you noticed, but it's 2012.

Rationale #2: Tulowitzki faced Wandy (also a LHP, naturally) four times, and walked, hit a sac fly, flied out to left, and popped up to 2nd. So leaving Abad out there wasn't much of a risk, since Tulowitzki hadn't really done much in the way of major damage to that point in the game.

Rationale #3: Abad was looking pretty good, and just needed one more out to send it to the 9th. Abad needed five pitches to get Dexter Fowler to ground out back to the pitcher. Carlos Gonzalez popped up to short on the 2nd pitch of the AB. So Abad had only thrown seven pitches when Tulowitzki came up with two outs. Maybe he'll get lucky.

Of course it didn't work out, Tulowitzki hit a 400' homer, and MLB's Twitter account decided it would be appropriate to compare it to the Pujols homer off of Brad Lidge. And, as McQuid mentioned in the recap, a 4-3 game in the bottom of the 9th is quite different than a 5-3 game in the bottom of the 9th.

Verdict: Silly risk that bit Mills squarely on his beanbag.

It's Friday morning, do you know where Lowrie's thumb is?

Still no word about Jed Lowrie's thumb, and his availability for tonight's opener against the Rockies. But at least he's happy:

“Considering I could barely pick up a bat four days ago, I’m really happy with the progression.”
-
Levine also gives us some insight into how Abad and Wright will be used - mainly Abad as the LOOGY, and Wright coming in for full innings.

In other words, Mills has no idea what happened to Abad

Last winter, Fernando Abad tore it up as a starter in Winter Ball. That success did not carry over to the 2011 regular season, either in Houston or in Oklahoma City. And Brad Mills has no answers:

“We don’t know if he didn’t throw enough or threw too much or whatever last winter, but it’s something we’re going to look at."

Abad placed on DL

So with Fernando Rodriguez' return to Houston, the Astros put Fernando Abad on the DL with Suck shoulder tendinitis.

Ed Wade:
"He came in over the weekend complaining of some tightness in his elbow and shoulder, and the elbow resolved itself in short order. "He was very tentative throwing when he went out there in the afternoon today, and [head athletic trainer] Nate [Lucero] felt it would be a couple of days. It was the best thing to do, to put him on the DL and go from there."

Within that article, we read that Jason Bourgeois won't be ready until he completes a minor-league rehab assignment after the All-Star Break for that strained quad.

Lyon to DL, Abad back up

Brandon Lyon was put back on the DL yesterday, and Fernando Abad was called up.

Lyon:
"There's definitely some issues in my shoulder right now, and [surgery] is definitely an option. I want to get a grasp on it, and talk to other people and get their opinions on it, and just move forward after I hear what they have to say."

Ed Wade:
"I talked to [manager] Brad Mills and [head athletic trainer] Nate Lucero last night after the game about whether we thought he was [OK] physically, and we had a chance to sit down with Brandon this afternoon and he admitted he still has discomfort in the biceps tendon. It doesn't make any sense for him to go out and try to be a hero. And with the way he's feeling right now, we're going to put him on the disabled list."

No, it doesn't make any sense to try to go out and be a hero, because he's not being a hero. He's being a Goat, and it's killing what little chance this team has of competing. The word that you might be thinking of is, "Gamer." We love it when a player plays hurt, and plays well. It's just that Lyon has been doing more of the former, and not the latter.

Abad sent down, Rodriguez up

On the heels of our earlier Fernando Abad post, he got sent down to OKC, and the Astros have brought up Fernando Rodriguez, who has a 1.29 ERA/1.05 WHIP in 13 games (21IP) for the RedHawks. He also has 29K:11BB, with 5IP.

With that, Sergio Escalona is your lone lefty reliever.

Fernando Abad: What in the World?

Fernando Abad took his 4th loss of the season last night, walking two batters, giving up a hit, and the winning run to the Braves. His WHIP is 1.95, ranked 218th out of 244 National League pitchers. There are only ten pitchers with a worse WHIP who have thrown 10+ IPs. Of course, two of those pitchers are Nelson Figueroa and Brandon Lyon, and we see how their seasons have gone so far.

What's going on with Abad (who dominated as a starter in Winter Ball this past off-season)? A big part of it is the fact that he's just not missing any bats. Dating back to April 26, Abad has thrown 117 pitches in 10 appearances, and has generated five swings-and-misses (according to Baseball-Reference).

He hasn't been particularly unlucky - giving up a .313 BABIP. His FIP (adjusting ERA so as to make it independent of fielding) is a stout 6.53. Abad just can't find the strike zone - walking batters at a rate of 5.4 per nine innings.

According to FanGraphs, Abad is throwing just 43% of his pitches in the strike zone, 74th out of NL relievers with 10+IP (other Astros pitchers qualifying for this stat throwing their pitches for a worse percentage in the zone include Wilton Lopez - 38.6%, Enerio Del Rosario - 40.6%, and Brandon Lyon - 40.9%). Hitters are making contact with 84.2% of Abad's pitches, ranking 80th out of those 97 pitchers.

Abad just isn't fooling anybody - batters are only swinging at 42.3% of his pitches - 83rd out of 97 pitchers. And they're only missing 6.4% of the ones they swing at.

(For the record, we could have a separate post on Enerio Del Rosario, who has less favorable statistics in almost every case).

Amazingly, Abad ranks 51st - pretty high for him - in getting the first-pitch strike at 59.4% of plate appearances. The issue is holding the batter after that 0-1 count. In 37PAs following an 0-1 count, opponents are hitting .323/.405/.452. Abad only has seven PAs with a batter down 0-2. Seven of his eight walks have come with two strikes on the board.

Fernando Abad just isn't fooling anyone. He still has options left, and he's currently an accessory to murder of the 2011 Astros season - of 22 appearances, the Astros have been worse off when he's exited the game (and this doesn't count inherited runners who have later scored) eight times.

Meanwhile, Ryan Rowland-Smith is down in Oklahoma City, where RHBs are hitting .290 against him (Abad vs. RHBs: .379, with a 1.259 OPS). Rowland-Smith is currently a starter, but he could fill a 2010 Figueroa type-role, spot-starting and appearing in relief. I know Abad's a young guy, and he's figuring things out. Maybe this season is a lost cause, anyway, so you just let him make his mistakes. But if the Astros are going to attempt some sort of comeback, it needs to happen with another lefty in the bullpen...like Ryan Rowland-Smith.

Update: Zach Levine published a post three minutes apart from this one, where Brad Mills is quoted on Abad:
We’ve had some discussions about that, and we’re still coming to that conclusion. We’ve gone over mechanical issues, we’ve gone over ‘does he need more time out there.’ Here’s a guy who’s been a strike thrower really his entire life and then all of a sudden he comes out last night during a big game and throws four straight balls. There’s all kind of things, mechanical things, mind things, game situation things that we’re discussing.”

Astros interested in Blue Jays pitching

Good work by SB Nation Houston, picking up Toronto Sun columnist Bob Elliott's tweet about the Astros' interest in LHP David Purcey, who was DFA'ed earlier this week.

It's quite direct:
Houston Astros interested in LHP David Purcey.

As SBN Houston notes, that left-handed reliever spot is currently held by Fernando Abad, but the routine duck-buttering of games by Aneury Rodriguez hasn't exactly inspired confidence in limited roles.

The Jays Journal blog discussed it, and linked to an MLB.com article quoting GM Alex Anthopolous, on Purcey:
With respect to David, the last few outings in the spring weren’t great, the three outings here. That’s always been the issue with him. He has always had a tremendous arm, great teammate, and the issue has always been command and the ability to throw strikes.”

Purcey has always been with the Blue Jays organization, and his first two seasons with the big league club would have overlapped with Brad Arnsberg. So maybe the Astros are looking at Purcey as another reclamation project.

What would the Blue Jays want in return? Again we turn to Jays Journal:
As for needs, the Blue Jays have little in the way of pressing needs. If anything, they may want to acquire someone who can man both 2B and SS since both Aaron Hilland Yunel Escobar could wind up on the DL at some point in time.

I think, I think, the Astros have some middle infielders they could send to Toronto. If Wade could move Clint Barmes for Purcey, I would give him a hug.

Let the second-guessing begin

I had diarrhea this morning, so what's the difference between me and Brandon Lyon? I at least made it to the bathroom.

But does one blown save justify what every Ed Wade Hater already thought? No. Lyon could post a Rivera-type season, and some numbnuts is going to say, "Yeah, but he isn't a long-term closer."

Take David Schoenfeld for instance:
And Brad Mills: I don't care if he's your "closer," when you give up five consecutive line drives ... maybe you don't leave him in to give up a sixth. Final suggestion: Maybe your closer shouldn't throw 89 mph.

Oh, and Fernando Abad - with his many plethoras of ML experience - should have faced Rollins and Howard. According to Everyone Else. Because labels shouldn't matter. The situation should determine who pitches. Ibid.

Maybe there shouldn't be a pre-determined 9th inning guy, but I'm likely to let the guy who has been in the situation before get the final outs. Only twice before in his career had Abad pitched in the 9th inning when the margin had been +/- 3 or fewer runs. I'm not sending him out on Opening Day to face Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard in the bottom of the 9th. And if Mills had done that, with the same result, what would the reaction have been?

I watched the game on ESPN and on Twitter, and while it was great to get our yearly dose of the Astros on the World Wide Leader, it also meant that every national writer had the opportunity to talk about the Astros, which - you could tell - some treated like they could take shots at Joe Morgan in a dunk tank. And it's asinine, like this topic.

Henry Villar and Fernando Abad are taking opposite escalators

McTaggart has an article on how Henry Villar seems to be doing really well this Spring. Abad? Not so much...

Abad's issue is his fastball, saith Mills:
"They're going to go back to the drawing board and will work from there, and there's no reason to think he won't come around and be fine."

Meanwhile, add Brandon Lyon to the list of Astros scratched due to bubbleguts. Mills:
""When we left [for Viera, Fla., and the game against the Nationals on Tuesday], we knew he was sick and he was still going to throw if he could, and he just couldn't make it. It's really been something, that sickness."

Meat Wagon Update

McTaggart has your ST2 reaction and some injury updates, which we'll pass along here:

-T.J. Steele (elbow) and Anderson Hernandez (back) are dealing with some issues, but were cleared to play.

-J.D. Martinez (quad) will be out until Thursday, when the Astros can reevaluate him.

-Fernando Abad had a temperature of 101, and was sent back to The Facility.