Joel Roza has a good take on Jordan Lyles, saying that maybe the Astros should pump the brakes a bit on anointing Lyles 2011's SP5:
What leads me to believe that Lyles isn’t quite ready is that in his two appearances (2 IP against NYY, 3 IP against STL), while he’s putting zeros on the board; he’s not putting any Ks in the scorecard. Sounds trivial, but for a guy who averaged over 9 strikeouts per 9 innings in his minor league career, it tells me that he needs to get comfortable attacking hitters again. He’s not being knocked around now, but his straight-forward approach, minus the strikeouts, would almost certainly be a disaster at the big league level.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label Joel Roza. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joel Roza. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Joel Roza on Lyles
The Caller-Times' Joel Roza (a buddy of Astros County) has a new article up on Jordan Lyles, and it's well-worth your time, given Roza's proximity to Lyles through much of 2010.
Your money quote:
Lyles typically reached the 80 pitch mark by late in the 4th or early in the 5th inning, depending on how many hits he’d given up. While these concerns are all fixable (much like Castro’s throwing to second base, which in person, concerned me, but was quickly quailed upon his arrival in Houston), they remain concerns for the time being.
Can Lyles hang back in certain situations, sacrificing the strikeout for a quick groundball, thus saving his pitch count? Can his changeup become more deceptive and eventually serve as an effective out pitch? Can he add a little more loop to his breaking ball? Lyles’ underlying advantage is his expert-to-basic grasp of five pitches. If he can turn four of them into effective major league-caliber pitches, the sky is the limit.
Your money quote:
Lyles typically reached the 80 pitch mark by late in the 4th or early in the 5th inning, depending on how many hits he’d given up. While these concerns are all fixable (much like Castro’s throwing to second base, which in person, concerned me, but was quickly quailed upon his arrival in Houston), they remain concerns for the time being.
Can Lyles hang back in certain situations, sacrificing the strikeout for a quick groundball, thus saving his pitch count? Can his changeup become more deceptive and eventually serve as an effective out pitch? Can he add a little more loop to his breaking ball? Lyles’ underlying advantage is his expert-to-basic grasp of five pitches. If he can turn four of them into effective major league-caliber pitches, the sky is the limit.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Joel Roza has a calm, even tone
Probably the best paper in the Astros' network of affiliates has two excellent reporters covering the team for them in Greg Rajan and Joel Roza.
Roza chimes in with a long column on how the philosophy of the club has changed right before our very eyes - and in about 48 hours. Well worth a read.
Roza chimes in with a long column on how the philosophy of the club has changed right before our very eyes - and in about 48 hours. Well worth a read.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Joel Roza writes a one-million word manifesto on Castro
The Caller Times' Joel Roza (one of our favorites), went off about the call-up of Jason Castro, calling it the biggest move since the Beltran trade. It's a very worthwhile read.
Hunter Pence was big; Castro is bigger because of what rides on his immediate impact. When Pence found his way into Houston, the Astros were in the dumpster and were all about riding the Craig Biggio 3,000 hits train. Fans love Pence because he hustles, works hard and is always enthusiastic. Those are great attributes, but it wasn’t anywhere near enough to save any seasons or jobs...
...Scouting reports mostly agree on Castro being an average defender at the big league level with fringe power (10-15 homer range) and an ability to hit for average. I got the chance to see plenty of him last season here in Corpus and I was impressed with his ability to call games and his natural instinct for when and when not to approach the pitcher. My only concern was his ability to throw out base runners. In more than a couple instances, a routine throw to second could become anything but. But that was my six-game sample and he was still in Double-A – land of the errors.
Hunter Pence was big; Castro is bigger because of what rides on his immediate impact. When Pence found his way into Houston, the Astros were in the dumpster and were all about riding the Craig Biggio 3,000 hits train. Fans love Pence because he hustles, works hard and is always enthusiastic. Those are great attributes, but it wasn’t anywhere near enough to save any seasons or jobs...
...Scouting reports mostly agree on Castro being an average defender at the big league level with fringe power (10-15 homer range) and an ability to hit for average. I got the chance to see plenty of him last season here in Corpus and I was impressed with his ability to call games and his natural instinct for when and when not to approach the pitcher. My only concern was his ability to throw out base runners. In more than a couple instances, a routine throw to second could become anything but. But that was my six-game sample and he was still in Double-A – land of the errors.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Joel Roza makes us nervous
The Caller Times' Joel Roza has this article in which he breaks down Ed Wade's history in trading his stars mid-season. The verdict? It's not pretty:
The scary part to the two mercy trades he made with Philly is, in both instances, the traded stars won World Series rings with their new teams while the players Wade acquired did not...
...History has played out almost identically for him so far. He takes over a fledgling franchise, piles on smart draft after smart draft while congruently stacking on bad contract and bad trade after bad contract and bad trade. Its things like that which give one reason to believe that the Astros, if they do actually deal away Oswalt, Berkman, Myers and others, won’t get all that they could in any given deal.
The scary part to the two mercy trades he made with Philly is, in both instances, the traded stars won World Series rings with their new teams while the players Wade acquired did not...
...History has played out almost identically for him so far. He takes over a fledgling franchise, piles on smart draft after smart draft while congruently stacking on bad contract and bad trade after bad contract and bad trade. Its things like that which give one reason to believe that the Astros, if they do actually deal away Oswalt, Berkman, Myers and others, won’t get all that they could in any given deal.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Joel Roza: What you saw last year, you'll see this year
The Caller-Times' Joel Roza posted his NL Central predictions, and has the Astros 5th:
St. Louis: 91-71
Chicago: 83-78
Milwaukee: 80-82
Cincinnati: 78-84
Houston: 74-88
Pittsburgh: 62-99
As for contention in the NL Central, the Astros are too involved in quasi-rebuilding and quasi-playing to win to be able to do hold up for 162 games. Myers, Norris, Lindstrom, Lyon, Castro, Manzella and Feliz are wild cards in the Astros’ overall success, but if things with Oswalt and Berkman don’t improve and those wild cards fail for the most part – it’s not going to be much of a season to remember. The Astros will look more alive under new manager Brad Mills and I’m pumped to see where they go with him, but this team needs time to develop if they’re going to succeed at some point down the road.
St. Louis: 91-71
Chicago: 83-78
Milwaukee: 80-82
Cincinnati: 78-84
Houston: 74-88
Pittsburgh: 62-99
As for contention in the NL Central, the Astros are too involved in quasi-rebuilding and quasi-playing to win to be able to do hold up for 162 games. Myers, Norris, Lindstrom, Lyon, Castro, Manzella and Feliz are wild cards in the Astros’ overall success, but if things with Oswalt and Berkman don’t improve and those wild cards fail for the most part – it’s not going to be much of a season to remember. The Astros will look more alive under new manager Brad Mills and I’m pumped to see where they go with him, but this team needs time to develop if they’re going to succeed at some point down the road.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Joel Roza brings The Depression
Well, it's a mix between depression for the Hooks, and optimism for the fans.
Roza:
When I first got this gig, the first thing I wrote about was the bridge that Corpus Christi, and Double-A in general, forms between the lower minor leagues and The Show and how vital this place was, and would be, to so many ballplayers. Thanks to the Ryan-Sanders team, we get to witness ballplayers in their developmental stages and root them on as our own if and when they reach the pinnacle of their careers elsewhere. On top of that, we get to watch these players develop in a world class, top notch ballpark that holds a high reputation throughout the country.
On the odds of making it to The Big Club:
Only 18% of all minor leaguers ever make it to the big leagues. That’s an enormous fail-rate and one that these players all face on a day-to-day basis.
On the reality of being a minor-league outfielder for Houston:
Yordany Ramirez, Brian Bogusevic, Drew Locke, T.J. Steele (low-A as of 2008), Jon Gaston (high-A as of 2008) and Collin DeLome are all legitimate talent. The odds of at least one of them being major-league ready within the next two years are pretty high. However, unless they change to an infield position or the Astros trade away talent at the big league level, there’s no way they’ll make it to Houston. Carlos Lee is virtually untradeable while Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn are huge talents and still under team control.
On Drew Locke:
He’ll be 27 in February, so two years seems to be a decent bet. He’s doesn’t qualify as a “prospect” at this point and he’s not rated in the Top 10 in terms of total organizational talent. The odds of him becoming anything more than a brief September call-up in Houston are slim to none at this point. He could however make it onto a low-budget major league roster if he continues his solid play. All in all though, his chances don’t look good. He blossomed too late and we won’t know until this season gets cooking if last season was a fluke or not.
There are a lot of other notes, and you should really read the article, but it's a pretty stark reality for the minor-leaguers.
Roza:
When I first got this gig, the first thing I wrote about was the bridge that Corpus Christi, and Double-A in general, forms between the lower minor leagues and The Show and how vital this place was, and would be, to so many ballplayers. Thanks to the Ryan-Sanders team, we get to witness ballplayers in their developmental stages and root them on as our own if and when they reach the pinnacle of their careers elsewhere. On top of that, we get to watch these players develop in a world class, top notch ballpark that holds a high reputation throughout the country.
On the odds of making it to The Big Club:
Only 18% of all minor leaguers ever make it to the big leagues. That’s an enormous fail-rate and one that these players all face on a day-to-day basis.
On the reality of being a minor-league outfielder for Houston:
Yordany Ramirez, Brian Bogusevic, Drew Locke, T.J. Steele (low-A as of 2008), Jon Gaston (high-A as of 2008) and Collin DeLome are all legitimate talent. The odds of at least one of them being major-league ready within the next two years are pretty high. However, unless they change to an infield position or the Astros trade away talent at the big league level, there’s no way they’ll make it to Houston. Carlos Lee is virtually untradeable while Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn are huge talents and still under team control.
On Drew Locke:
He’ll be 27 in February, so two years seems to be a decent bet. He’s doesn’t qualify as a “prospect” at this point and he’s not rated in the Top 10 in terms of total organizational talent. The odds of him becoming anything more than a brief September call-up in Houston are slim to none at this point. He could however make it onto a low-budget major league roster if he continues his solid play. All in all though, his chances don’t look good. He blossomed too late and we won’t know until this season gets cooking if last season was a fluke or not.
There are a lot of other notes, and you should really read the article, but it's a pretty stark reality for the minor-leaguers.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Joel Roza's open letter to Mills
Corpus Christi Caller-Times' Joel Roza has a letter to Brad Mills:
Old, bad and boring would be the ode to the current Astros. The Texas Rangers are more exciting than them; the Houston Texans are more exciting than them. Even the injury-riddled Rockets can generate more excitement than a lame duck baseball team that continues to screw up when it counts the most. Even former Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta won’t come here.
Brad, I’m not sure what Ed Wade, Tal Smith and Pam Gardner have you told you about your new boss, but patience is not really one of his virtues. You’re the fourth Astros manager since the start of the 2007 season. You’re the sixth this decade. Loaded with talent or not, Drayton McLane expects results and you’ve got a little over a year to do it. The Astros passed on Acta because he wanted an extra year of job security and some patience with this team from the front office. Obviously, you’ve taken this position feeling as though you can do the job in accordance with the win-soon or else mandate. It’s certainly not impossible for the Astros to be a contender in two years, but it’s highly unrealistic. You’re hedging your bets on Jason Castro, Tommy Manzella and Chris Johnson panning out as successes, Berkman and Oswalt playing with confidence and swagger again, not to mention just staying healthy, Carlos Lee hustling and second base somehow not being the same black hole that it’s been since Biggio hung em up.
In other words, you’re inheriting a mess...
...Brad, I hope nothing but the best for you. I hope you get to live out every last second and every last dollar of your brand spanking new multi-year, multi-million dollar contract. I hope you become as hallowed and legendary a manager as the Astros have ever known. I hope you make that front office look like geniuses again. I don’t expect much out of you right off the bat, so don’t get down whenever the fans get a little restless with a team that’ll be largely fresh and young in comparison to last season’s senior citizens club. You’re the new manager now and the city of Houston, and everyone else in Astros Nation, welcomes you to town. Even if the popular pick was Phil Garner and the organization’s preference was Acta. It’s all good. Just relax, shape your team, shape your coaching staff and bring in some of that Red Sox mojo if at all possible.
We’re all behind you… until you get fired and we’re all back here again.
Old, bad and boring would be the ode to the current Astros. The Texas Rangers are more exciting than them; the Houston Texans are more exciting than them. Even the injury-riddled Rockets can generate more excitement than a lame duck baseball team that continues to screw up when it counts the most. Even former Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta won’t come here.
Brad, I’m not sure what Ed Wade, Tal Smith and Pam Gardner have you told you about your new boss, but patience is not really one of his virtues. You’re the fourth Astros manager since the start of the 2007 season. You’re the sixth this decade. Loaded with talent or not, Drayton McLane expects results and you’ve got a little over a year to do it. The Astros passed on Acta because he wanted an extra year of job security and some patience with this team from the front office. Obviously, you’ve taken this position feeling as though you can do the job in accordance with the win-soon or else mandate. It’s certainly not impossible for the Astros to be a contender in two years, but it’s highly unrealistic. You’re hedging your bets on Jason Castro, Tommy Manzella and Chris Johnson panning out as successes, Berkman and Oswalt playing with confidence and swagger again, not to mention just staying healthy, Carlos Lee hustling and second base somehow not being the same black hole that it’s been since Biggio hung em up.
In other words, you’re inheriting a mess...
...Brad, I hope nothing but the best for you. I hope you get to live out every last second and every last dollar of your brand spanking new multi-year, multi-million dollar contract. I hope you become as hallowed and legendary a manager as the Astros have ever known. I hope you make that front office look like geniuses again. I don’t expect much out of you right off the bat, so don’t get down whenever the fans get a little restless with a team that’ll be largely fresh and young in comparison to last season’s senior citizens club. You’re the new manager now and the city of Houston, and everyone else in Astros Nation, welcomes you to town. Even if the popular pick was Phil Garner and the organization’s preference was Acta. It’s all good. Just relax, shape your team, shape your coaching staff and bring in some of that Red Sox mojo if at all possible.
We’re all behind you… until you get fired and we’re all back here again.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Corpus Christi Caller-Times runs down the Top 10 trades of the last 10 years
Joel Roza at the Caller-Times churns out an article on the Top 10 Astros trades of the last 10 years. Click the link for the explanation, but I'll include the trade, and a one-line snipped, because I love you all...
10. Buchholz, Hirsh, Taveras to Colorado for Jason Jennings and Miguel Ascencio (December 2006).
By far and wide, the worst trade of this decade. This is the deal that sealed Tim Purpura’s fate and sent the Astros into a full tailspin.
9. Scott, Albers, Patton, Sarfate, Costanzo to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada (December 2007)
It seems Houston’s lust and Ed Wade’s desire to shake things up ended up costing Houston more than helping. The forgotten wrinkle in all of this though is the guy not involved in the deal, but one who was certainly affected – Adam Everett.
8. Zobrist and Talbot to Tampa Bay for Aubrey Huff (July 2006)
Just another ‘get rich quick’ trade, yet again, gone horribly wrong. It’s also one of those deals that took a couple years to go from bad to worse.
7. Blum to Tampa Bay for Brandon Backe (December 2003)
Blum would end up as a member of the 2005 White Sox and hit a game-winning homer in Game 3 of the World Series, putting the Astros in an 0-3 hole in the series, where they were eventually swept.
6. Qualls, Gutierrez, Burke to Arizona for Jose Valverde (December 2007)
I just believe the Astros had their priorities mixed up with this deal. It was a good deal but at a bad time.
5. Wagner to Philadelphia for Brandon Duckworth, Taylor Buchholz, and Ezequiel Astacio (November 2003)
But the trade, which drew the ire of Astros Nation initially, ended up not being because of Wagner’s comments, though I’m sure they made it easier, but to free up payroll so that the Astros could sign Andy Pettitte, and later, Roger Clemens.
4. Seuss to New York Mets for Dan Wheeler (August 2004)
Who in the hell is Adam Seuss?
(Ed Note: Adam Seuss failed a steroids test in Spring Training 2005)
3. Lidge and Bruntlett for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and Mike Costanzo (November 2007)
It’s still Philly’s ballgame, but I’m starting to like this trade more and more.
2. Jeriome Robertson to Cleveland for Luke Scott and right to Willy Taveras (March 2004)
If you whittle it all down, all the Astros have to show for this trade today is Miguel Tejada. At least we got a pennant out of it. Very good trade though. Leave it to Gerry Hunsicker.
1. Octavio Dotel, John Buck, and $$$ to Kansas City and Oakland for Carlos Beltran (June 2004)
He can have Citi Field, I’ll take the memories. Awesome, awesome trade.
What say you?
10. Buchholz, Hirsh, Taveras to Colorado for Jason Jennings and Miguel Ascencio (December 2006).
By far and wide, the worst trade of this decade. This is the deal that sealed Tim Purpura’s fate and sent the Astros into a full tailspin.
9. Scott, Albers, Patton, Sarfate, Costanzo to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada (December 2007)
It seems Houston’s lust and Ed Wade’s desire to shake things up ended up costing Houston more than helping. The forgotten wrinkle in all of this though is the guy not involved in the deal, but one who was certainly affected – Adam Everett.
8. Zobrist and Talbot to Tampa Bay for Aubrey Huff (July 2006)
Just another ‘get rich quick’ trade, yet again, gone horribly wrong. It’s also one of those deals that took a couple years to go from bad to worse.
7. Blum to Tampa Bay for Brandon Backe (December 2003)
Blum would end up as a member of the 2005 White Sox and hit a game-winning homer in Game 3 of the World Series, putting the Astros in an 0-3 hole in the series, where they were eventually swept.
6. Qualls, Gutierrez, Burke to Arizona for Jose Valverde (December 2007)
I just believe the Astros had their priorities mixed up with this deal. It was a good deal but at a bad time.
5. Wagner to Philadelphia for Brandon Duckworth, Taylor Buchholz, and Ezequiel Astacio (November 2003)
But the trade, which drew the ire of Astros Nation initially, ended up not being because of Wagner’s comments, though I’m sure they made it easier, but to free up payroll so that the Astros could sign Andy Pettitte, and later, Roger Clemens.
4. Seuss to New York Mets for Dan Wheeler (August 2004)
Who in the hell is Adam Seuss?
(Ed Note: Adam Seuss failed a steroids test in Spring Training 2005)
3. Lidge and Bruntlett for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and Mike Costanzo (November 2007)
It’s still Philly’s ballgame, but I’m starting to like this trade more and more.
2. Jeriome Robertson to Cleveland for Luke Scott and right to Willy Taveras (March 2004)
If you whittle it all down, all the Astros have to show for this trade today is Miguel Tejada. At least we got a pennant out of it. Very good trade though. Leave it to Gerry Hunsicker.
1. Octavio Dotel, John Buck, and $$$ to Kansas City and Oakland for Carlos Beltran (June 2004)
He can have Citi Field, I’ll take the memories. Awesome, awesome trade.
What say you?
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