Saturday Morning Hot Links

The biggest news of the day was that nobody announced that they had signed George Springer to a contract. 

*The 2nd biggest news of the day is that the Occult Yakult Swallows of the Japanese League are on the verge of acquiring Former Astros Great Cy Sneed. Sneed was the Brewers' 3rd Round pick in the 2014 Draft and was acquired by the Astros in November 2015 for Former Astros Great Jonathan Villar. Villar put up 4.5 bWAR for Milwaukee before they traded him and two other dudes for Jonathan Schoop. Sneed threw 38.2IP for the Astros across 2019-2020 with a 5.59 ERA (4.78 FIP) / 1.63 WHIP. 

Of Sneed's 26 games pitched for the Astros, he came into a game in which the Astros were leading when he entered in just nine times. 14 of his 26 appearances came in which the Astros were losing by fewer than four runs. 

That said, good for Sneed, who is likely going to get more opportunities, and a raise, and also gets to pitch closer to home. (Tokyo is 3,409 miles from Kenai, Alaska. Houston is 4,291 miles from Kenai, Alaska). 

The Astros' 40-Man Roster will be at 38 Men. 

*Check your podcast feed because I uploaded a new interview with WFAA producer (and all-around Houston Sports fan) Taylor Williamson. Got a real banger of an episode coming on Monday morning. 

*The Athletic: Bonds, Heaters, and Crying on Cue: The Lost F***ing Stories of Jim Leyland. You can get a 1yr subscription to The Athletic for $1/month. 

*Wired: The absolute best online Black Friday deals.

*Outside: Five highlights from the Banff Film Festival you can stream online.

*Vice: Everything you already forgot that happened in 2020.

*The Fall of Ahmad Ahmad: African Soccer's most powerful man.

*Leeds United plays Everton at 11:30am Central on Saturday morning.

*A Musical Selection from Elbow, whose album "The Seldom Seen Kid" is very easily in my Top Ten of All-Time. It's one of those albums you can hit Play on, and just sit there and listen to it start-to-finish. The following is part of a concert in which Elbow played the album in its entirety with the BBC Concert Orchestra live at Abbey Road, and it's phenomenal. Click the link to find the other videos.

Monday Morning Hot Links

Well that was less than ideal. The Astros took an improbable lead into the middle of the 9th and then Roberto Osuna gave it right back. More on him in a minute. The Astros' eight-game winning streak has been snapped. The Away Runs mean that Houston advances to play Chicago tomorrow, on aggregate. Houston is 77-41. There are 44 regular season games left. Oakland, Anaheim, and East Thurber all won. Houston's lead is an even ten games. They have won 18 of their last 22 games.

The Astros looked flat, which I guess can happen about 14 hours after you put 23 on a team.

Former Astros Greats did the damage on Sunday:
-Asher Wojciechowski: 6IP, 4H/3ER, 5K:3BB
-Jonathan Villar: 3x4 with a walk and a run scored.
-Rio Ruiz: 2x5, 2-run walkoff homer.

Good for all those guys, to be honest. It's been a hard year for Baltimore, and they had success the afternoon after getting absolutely trounced. If it gives them and their fans some happiness, then so be it. How many times from 2011-2013 did the Astros win a game they might not have been expected to win, and it just made us a little nicer to those around us?

*Hinch:
That was a winnable game. We didn't put probably enough pressure on them in enough innings. The big innings that we did have kind of put us in position to win the game.

*Justin Verlander was...decent. 5IP, 9H/4ER, 11K:1BB.

The strikeouts were there and should absolutely be acknowledged. He has 217 strikeouts this season, nine behind Gerrit Cole. The nine hits Verlander gave up are the most he has given up in a game since July 28, 2018 in a cursed loss to the Ramgers. Verlander:
When you're playing great baseball it seems like the losses even hurt that much more. We put ourselves in a position to win; our guys did a fantastic job battling back. Just one pitch early in the game, a couple pitches that I made that were mistakes. But I think sometimes you've got to look at the bigger picture and understand that we're playing good baseball. Don't let this be too much of a Debbie Downer.

Verlander also has 10+ strikeouts in five straight starts, setting a career-high (he had a streak of four in 2018). He joins Randy Johnson (Aug 28-Sept 18, 1998) and J.R. Richard (Sept 16, 1979-Apr 10, 1980) as the only Astros pitchers to strike out ten or more batters in five straight games. They each had 63K in their five starts. Verlander comes in at a scrub-level 57K in his five-start streak.

*Roberto Osuna. Hm. 0.2IP, 2H/3ER, 1K, 1HBP. The HBP to Chance Sisco (his 2nd HBP of the game, by the by. The Astros have hit the same guy twice in a game only one other time this season - Tampa's Joey Wendle, in the season opener).

Anyway, Osuna's HBP was the game-tying run, followed by Rio Ruiz who trotted across the plate after the walk-off, his 2nd home run in as many days against the Astros.

Maybe Osuna was protecting Bregman, who got drilled in the top of the back earlier in the game. But Osuna's had a rough go of it lately.

Osuna, beginning of season to May 24: 22.1IP, 8H/2ER, 21K:2BB, 0.81 ERA / 0.44 WHIP.
Osuna, May 25 - right this minute: 25IP, 27H/14ER, 28K:6BB, 5.04 ERA / 1.32 WHIP.
Osuna, since the All-Star Break: 10IP, 12H/8ER, 10K:2BB, 7.20 ERA / 1.40 WHIP.

Maybe it's regression, maybe his finger is off by a hot millimeter in his delivery. Intentional, or not, that HBP to Sisco was freaking stupid. It was more stupid than allowing the home run to Ruiz. Chance Sisco is the #7 hitter on a team 39 games under .500. He has a .734 OPS. There is no reason to try to be too fine with your pitch. There is no reason to hit him, even if it is to send a message. You won't see the Orioles again until 2020, so what message are you actually trying to send? Don't put an Astro on base? I think the rest of the league knows that. FOH, Osuna. Figure your crap out. Hinch even said: why would [they] hit someone in a 2-run game?

For what it's worth, Osuna said the HBP wasn't intentional:
Absolutely not. Like I said, I didn't have the stuff. I was wild. I missed a lot of pitches. Most of them were (not) in the location I wanted...It was one of those days.

-Jace Peterson hit a 1st-pitch double.
-Richie Martin got a 1-1 ground out in which Osuna's 1st pitch was a ball
-Chance Sisco took the 1-0 HBP
-Chris Davis hit a 1-0 sac fly
-Rio Ruiz started off 2-0, Osuna got him back to 2-2 before Ruiz fouled off two pitches and deposited the 7th pitch onto Eutaw Street.

Officially, Osuna threw a 1st-pitch strike to exactly zero of the five batters he faced. Osuna:
The guys did a great job coming back and get the lead and expected me to get the job done. Not being able to do that, it's a bad day.

Chirinos:
I'd say we went too many changeups there. That could be my fault. I thought we were going to get swing and miss against the changeup. Last one, it was more like middle in, and [Ruiz] put a good swing.

*Will Harris threw a perfect inning, and hasn't allowed a hit since July 26, 4.1IP, 0H/0ER, 5K:1BB. His ERA is 1.64. 136 relievers have thrown at least 40IP in MLB this season. Harris' ERA is the 4th-lowest of them all. Pressly's 1.99 ERA is 9th.

*Astros pitchers struck out 16 Orioles. It's the 64th game in which the pitching staff has gotten 10+ Ks. It's the 8th with 16+. This is insane.

*George Springer went 3x5 - his first 3-hit game since August 2. He had four hits in his previous five games combined.

*Carlos Correa hit another home run. It's the first time he's hit home runs in consecutive games since May 5-6. He has six home runs since returning from the IL.

*Alex Bregman was 0x2, but with 0K:2BB. He has struck out once in his last 43 PAs, going 30 PAs without a strikeout. His last strikeout was on August 2.

*Brad Peacock threw 0.1IP, 1H/0ER, 1K:1BB Saturday night for Round Rock, and told Hinch that it's "the best he's felt since he's been back on the mound."

*The Astros are not ruling out Forrest Whitley's 2019 Houston debut. Luhnow:
He would have to prove to us in August that he could help us, which is a high bar (because) he's not currently on the (40-man) roster. But I'm not going to rule it out, that's for sure.

Whitley, Saturday night: 3.2IP, 2H/3ER, 5K:5BB, 2HBP, 42 of 82 pitches for strikes.

*Baseball America: How do scouts evaluate Triple-A raw power given the bunny ball that is getting thrown there?

*Mental Floss: Whatever happened to the eight things that terrified us in the 1990s?

*Drew Magary: You're not sticking to sports when you Stick To Sports.

*A Musical Selection:

Astros Depth Charts: the Middle Infield Edition

To whittle away the time between now and the start of Spring Training, we at Astros County plan to preview each positional group of Astros, looking at the history and projections for the players that we are likely to see in 2016.  We will look at the Major League roster, all relevant players who have managed significant time at AA and above, and any interesting, available or reasonable trade targets or free agents.

We started with the Catchers a couple of days ago, and if you missed the Primer, here it is.


Shortstop:  Carlos Correa (21, turns 22 in September)

I may be out on a limb here, but I am ready to anoint Carlos Correa as the 2016 starting shortstop for the Astros, barring injury, natural disaster or alien invasion.  Correa, famously, was drafted first overall in 2012 out of Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, and he made the jump from AA, with a brief stop at AAA, to the major leagues in June of 2015, after sitting out much of 2014 with what I recall to be a broken tibia (often reported as a broken fibula, which is a much more common injury, but I definitely remember it being reported at the time as a broken tibia).  He enters the 2016 season as the reigning Rookie of the Year after he raked to the tune of .279/.345/.512 in 432 plate appearances.  He hit 22 home runs and doubles, one triple, and stole 14 bases against four caught stealing.  He struck out 78 times against 40 walks.  That all amounts of a bWAR of 4.1, although Fangraphs was a less bullish 3.3 fWAR, amassed over only 99 games.  Baseball Prospectus rated him a 2.7 Wins Over Replacement Player.  Pro-rating B-R's digits for the whole season results in a bWAR of 6.7.  Now cast your eyes upward and remind yourself of his age.

I can only really say one more thing beyond what I have said in the above paragraph about Carlos Correa.  The numbers quoted above are impressive and speak for themselves.  What may be more impressive is his maturity.  Everyone he meets seems to be impressed by him, and in interviews he comes across as respectful, polite, and a keen guardian of the game.  He is going to be fun to watch over the next few years, and will be easy to root for whether you support the Astros or not.

Correa's strength appears to be his bat, which is fabulous, especially for an up-the-middle player.  The various statistical systems are less bullish about his defence.  He finished 2015 with a -7.3 Fielding Runs Against, and the statistics commonly employed by Fangraphs and B-R all indicate a slight negative rating for his defence overall.  What we often say about the Astros and fielding stats is that there are concerns about how they can be applied to the Astros, because of the frequency and intensity of their shifting, especially regarding the infield.  Correa seemed to be a solid defender to the eye, but remember that we watched a whole lot of Jed Lowrie and Marwin González prior to his call up, and that may have made Correa look more impressive in comparison.  His crucial error in Game 4 of the ALDS may have helped shorten the Astros' season somewhat, but that was certainly not typical of how he fielded during the year.  The best part of his defensive arsenal seems to be his arm, which reminds me of a cannon, and supports any future move to third base.

Just as a reminder, Correa managed a .279/.345/.512 triple slash in 2015.

Marcel seems to think that Correa will have fewer plate appearances in 2016 - it is a very simple projection system, after all - but that his triple slash will largely remain the same, showing only a slight decrease in power (.282/.346/.496 with 19 HR).  Steamer likes Correa to play the full season, but to also take a slight hit to his power numbers (.275/.340/.458 with 22 HR).  Steamer also thinks that Correa's defence will be a slight plus this year, yielding an overall fWAR of 4.2.  ZiPS disagrees with Steamer and Marcel regarding Cornea's power, suggesting a .273/.340/.492 triple-slash, with a strikeout rate just below 20%.  This would result in an overall zWAR of 4.9, which is pretty awesome for a middle-infielder.  ZiPS' number one comparison for Correa is Troy Tulowitzki - I would certainly take Tulo's career for Correa at this point.

I think we can all agree - Correa is pretty frikking awesome, and he is capable of being the best shortstop in the league this year.  However, his modus operandi has been - to this point - more about slow and steady development, so perhaps we should temper our expectations and expect a little less, rather than more form Correa for the upcoming season.  He needs to avoid injury, of course, and the rigors of playing a full season may be a bit of a challenge for 2016.  On that note, I would expect Hinch to proactively rest Correa if the Astros are doing well early in the season in order to prevent him wearing down later in the summer.


Second Base:  José Altuve (25, turns 26 in May)

José Altuve - everybody's favourite Astro - seems set to man the keystone in 2016 - again barring unforeseen circumstances such as the aforementioned alien invasion or other stuff.  Altuve is a fascinating guy: he is short (generously 5-foot-6), young, and has already amassed nearly 3000 ML plate appearances for his career.  He has manned the keystone full-time since 2012, and has been awarded two Silver Sluggers and one Gold Glove in the process.  He signed with the Astros as an amateur free-agent in 2007, and since signing, has done nothing but rake his way through the Astros system, into the major leagues.  He is also signed to a ridiculously team-friendly contract: he will earn $3.5MM in 2016, $4.5MM in 2017, and has two team options totalling $12.5MM for the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

Altuve is coming off another solid season where he assembled a .313/.353/.459 batting line, hitting a career high 15 home runs in the process.  He stole 38 bases, but was caught stealing 13 times - both league highs.  He reached the 200 hit-plateau for the second time.  He was worth - according to the various systems, 5 bWAR, 4.3 fWAR, or 3.2 WARP.

As impressive as 2015 was for Altuve, it was a slight regression from 2014, where he slashed .341/.377/.453 and stole 56 bases.  But Altuve's 2015 was superior to 2014 in two important categories - his power hitting, and his defence.  Altuve's defensive numbers improved according to both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs, moving into slight positive territory in both measures.  Baseball Prospectus (Fielding Runs Against) thought that Altuve's 2015 was less-negative than his 2014 and 2013.  Regardless of what the unintelligible defensive stats say, Altuve was recognised by his peers by virtue of being awarded a Gold Glove which (i) should be mainly seen as a sign that he is a good all-round player rather than the best defensive player in the AL at the keystone and (ii) recognition that his defence isn't awful, which it once was.

The forecasting systems like Altuve's ongoing offensive excellence, which is no surprise because he has been an excellent player for three of the last four seasons.  Marcel projects Altuve to slash .315/.355/.439 with 10 home runs and 34 stolen bases.  Steamer sees a little bit of regression, forecasting a .307/.350/.433 triple-slash with 11 home runs and 36 stolen bases, adding up to an fWAR of 3.3. ZiPS sees what Steamer sees, projecting Altuve to hit .309/.346/.432 while striking out in less than 10% of his at-bats, hitting 11 home runs, and stealing 40 bases.

Most betting Astros fans would take the "over" on both Fangraphs systems, I would think.  Astros fans have seen Altuve continually beat his projections in the past, and would likely characterise him as an outlier with continued similar production going forward.  The heartless projection systems often have trouble with consistent outliers, often projecting regression unfairly in early-career stats, not realising that some guys are freakish.  Perhaps that is what is happening here.

Altuve, like Correa, obviously needs to avoid injury.  Anything that eats into his speed would be a disaster.  And also like Correa, ZiPS projects Altuve to produce north of 4 zWAR.  For those keeping count at home, the Astros starters in the middle infield are projected to combine for 9 zWAR in 2016.  Goodness, that is a decent core to build around.


Backup:  Marwin González (26, turns 27 in March)

MarGo is an interesting case.  He was signed as an amateur free agent by the Cubs in 2005, but was claimed by Boston in the Rule 5 draft in late 2011, and promptly traded to the Astros for minor leaguer Marco Duarte (who has spent the last three years pitching in Mexico).  The Astros of 2012 and 2013 were pretty starved of talent, so Gonzalez was allowed to post poor batting numbers (65 and 58 OPS+'s) in 152 games and 441 plate appearances combined over the two seasons.  However, a stronger 2014 saw him post a .277/.327/.400 in 310 plate appearances, resulting in a 105 OPS+.  He continued along the same lines in 2015 (.279/.317/.442 in 370 plate appearances) resulting in a slightly better 106 OPS+.  He hit 12 home runs in 2015 - twice what he has hit in any other year, and as many as he has hit between 2012 and 2014.  Combine that with positional flexibility and a solid-but-unspectacular glove, and the Astros have a bench player of considerable value.

MarGo posted a bWAR of 1.5 and 1.8 respectively in 2014 and 2015 (and an fWAR of 0.8 and 1.5 over the same period).  Baseball Prospectus rates him as posting a 1.4 WARP each year over 2014 and 2015, which is plenty valuable in part-time duty.  Perhaps the best thing about González is that he won't hurt you if he has to step in to a regular role for a month or two.

González's value - at least measured by some kind of WAR-to-salary ratio - is about to take a hit, however.  He was arbitration eligible for the first time this year, and MLBTR projected him to earn around $1.9MM, which still seems like a bargain for the Astros.  González signed for a little over that   - he will play the 2016 season earning $2MM annually.  It will seem like less of a bargain in a few years, especially if González breaks the $5MM barrier, which I imagine he could do in 2017 with another strong full season.

What is also notable about González is how he has managed to ward off challengers for his super-utility roster spot.  In particular, Jed Lowrie (.222/.312/.400 with 9HR, 1.0 bWAR) and Jonathan Villar (.284/.339/.414, 0.9 bWAR in 128 PA's) both had the potential to challenge for González's roster spot, but both have been the victims of offseason trades for seemingly poor returns.

The interesting thing about González's 2015 was his splits.  In the first half of the year, he "hit" .253/.279/.412 in 203 PA's.  In the second half - and we all remember him having some vital knocks for the Astros down the stretch - he hit a considerably better .313/.364/.480 in 167 PA's.  His September/October was particularly hot: .308/.345/.519 over 56 PA's, which is a huge bonus for a utility guy.  And some of this occurred with a finger and wrist injury that he sustained in September, which apparently restricted his swing from the left side.  It is also notable that he was stronger against lefties last year (.295/.347/.496 versus .268/.296/.405), which is not consistent with his career mark (.681 OPS against LHP versus .690 against RHP), so the hand/wrist injury may have had something to do with that.  The Astros didn't really have many effective lefty-mashers on the bench last year, so González was doubly useful.

So González has transformed himself from a light-hitting Rule 5 shortstop into a defensively flexible bench bat who won't let you down, and has an ability to get on a hot streak.  He is entering his prime years (he is 26 at the time of writing), and is about to start getting expensive.  He is likely to be around for a few more years yet, given the offseason trades of his challengers, which is nice for the legions of Astros fans who love him.

In terms of his 2016 projections, Marcel seems him hitting .267/.313/.408 in 416 PA's, with 11 home runs.  Marcel thinks that the recent surge in power is for real, despite it predicting a slight regression in 2016.  Steamer sees MarGo regressing significantly: .252/.294/.381 with 7 HRs in 342 PA's, good for a 0.5 WAR - not the worst from a utility guy, but Jonathan Villar may have been a better option if that was what MarGo hits next year.  ZiPS sees similar production: .257/.295/.385 with 8 home runs, again not buying into González's hot second half of 2015.  ZiPS also sees González posting a slightly above-average strikeout rate (18.5%) but a well below-average walk rate (4.4%).

MarGo could do his future playing prospects a lot of good with another solid year.  The AL is, after all, crying out for another Ben Zobrist (who slashed .297/.405/.543 in his stellar 2009 - his best campaign).  Mentioning Ben Zobrist is a little rough on Marwin - Zobrist was absolutely stellar in his time with Tampa Bay, and expecting any utility man to match that production is grossly unfair.


Also on the 40-man:  Nolan Fontana (24, turns 25 in June)

Nolan Fontana is the only remaining player currently on the 40-man roster capable of manning a passable shortstop.   It therefore seems likely that he will probably be the first player called up in the event of a Correa or González injury.  Fontana was added to the 40-man in advance of the 2015 Rule 5 draft which was held at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings.  He was drafted in the second round of the 2012 amateur draft as a polished OBP-type infielder graduating college.

Since then Fontana has steadily advanced through the minor-leagues to Fresno.  He sports an OBP over .400 in his minor-league career, but his 2015 line at Fresno was a little uninspiring and perhaps portends an inability to play at the very top level: .241/.369/.357 in 456 PA's, with 3 HR.  He walked 74 times against 99 strikeouts, maintaining a walk rate of well above 10% (16.2%).  However, he has also consistently maintained strikeout rates of 20% or more in the minor leagues as well, so his walks obviously don't just come from amazing contact abilities and fighting strike 3 off until he gets ball four.

Marcel has no projections on Fontana, given he has no major-league PA's as yet.  Steamer sees him producing at a .218/.321/.307 clip in a handful of plate appearances in 2015, with a K% over 25%.  ZiPS is also unimpressed, forecasting a walk rate of 13.9% against a strikeout rate of 30%, resulting in a remarkable line of .195/.311/.284.

It is safe to say that 2016 is a big year for Fontana in what is likely to be his second AAA go-round.  He will need to hit better than he hit in 2015 if he is to hold his place on the 40-man roster.  He isn't young anymore, and his offensive value relies on a gaudy walk rate, which probably won't be maintained at the major league level without the ability to occasionally punish the pitchers for throwing the ball in the strike zone.  Fontana will also need to show some better skills at the plate if he is to push for a promotion, but clearly the most likely situation that would see him arrive in Houston in 2016 would be as cover for an injury.  He is also probably a good bet to be outrighted off the 40-man if he gets off to a slow start in AAA.


Invited to Spring Training:  Tony Kemp (24, turns 25 in October)

Tony Kemp is primarily a second baseman who was also given some time in the outfield in 2015.  This may have been because the Astros were interested in his all-round skills, and second base is... um... taken for the foreseeable future.  Kemp is also notable by virtue of his short stature (1 Altuve tall), and by the fact that he was selected in the fifth round of the 2013 draft.  He is Rule 5 draft eligible after this season and the Astros seem set at his primary position, so 2016 is shaping up to be a big year for him if he wants of push for a promotion.

In 2015, he hit a combined .308/.388/.386 in 541 PA's between Corpus and Fresno, with 3 home runs and 4 triples.  He made some stellar plays early on in his outfield career which got some Astros fans pretty excited and talking about perhaps seeing him in Houston in 2015.  Scouting reports since then seem to indicate that he has more work to do on his outfield routes, but he seemed to do pretty well for an in-season experiment.  His batting line at Corpus (.358/.457/.420) was far better than his batting line at Fresno (.273/.334/.696), so promotion past Fresno was not warranted in 2015.  However, Kemp was also promoted midseason in both 2013 and 2014, and a similar decline was noted each time at the higher level. He seemed to make an adjustment at the new level to start the next season each time - 2016 shapes up as an important year for him, too, but he will have to be pretty darn good to force a promotion.

Marcel has no projections - stupid Marcel - but Steamer is quite bullish on Kemp: .275/.334/.362, which is a reasonable line for a young, vertically challenged middle infielder (wRC+ 88).  What is very interesting is that this line will be obtained in one solitary plate appearance (Steamer predicts this for a number of guys on the fringes of the majors, so I will officially retire this joke now).  ZiPS is less bullish, predicting a below-average line of .253/.319/.338, but with an above-average strikeout rate of just over 15%.  All this, according to ZiPS, will occur in 532 plate appearances.

However, when compared with Nolan Fontana's Steamer and ZiPS projection above, Kemp's line is far more palatable.  Steamers line is superior to (i) Fontana's projection, and (ii) far better than Marwin González's 2013 season, in which González was also 24 years of age.  So both projection systems potentially see some future development in Kemp that they don't see in Fontana, which is understandable because Fontana has more unique overall profile.  Kemp certainly seems like the most likely prospect of this group to make an impact in Houston over the next couple of years.


Invited to Spring Training:  Joe Sclafani (25, turns 26 in April)

Sclafani is a switch-hitting infielder who was drafted in the 14th round of the 2012 draft out of Dartmouth College, the same college that produced legendary Astros slugger Brad Ausmus.  Sclafani was Rule 5 draft eligible this year, but remained exposed to the draft by virtue of his not added to the 40-man in advance of the Winter Meetings.  He (obviously) went untaken in the Rule 5 draft as he remains in the Astros organisation, where he will probably return to Fresno to play a mix of second base, third base and shortstop in 2016.

Sclafani spent 2014 between AA Corpus and AAA Oklahoma City.  In the latter of the two stops, he raked to the tune of .339/.420/.438 in 226 PA's, and continued his hot streak in the AFL (.370/.431/.543) to conclude 2014.  Prior to the 2015 season, I wondered whether he would get a serious look at the big leagues to open 2015, but instead he spent 2015 also split between Corpus (14 PA's) and Fresno (256 PA's) after a rough spring training.  Sclafani continued to splutter in 2015 - if he had continued the hot work with the bat that he managed in 2014, he could easily have had a look at the majors late last year.

As mentioned above, his 2015 batting line took a wee step backward, with Sclafani logging a combined .292/.370/.339 line between the two levels.  However, he continues to sport a walk rate over 10% at the AAA level, and his AAA K% was under 12% in 2014 and under 15% in 2015.  Sclafani seems a lot like Kemp and Fontana - there may be value there, but it is likely to be obtained through OBP rather than slugging.  His late-season 2014 performance may be the peak of his career, sadly.

Marcel, again, comes up empty in terms of projections because of a lack of major-league time.  Steamer sees Sclafani posting a .256/.315/.338 batting line, for an 80 wRC+.  ZiPS lands in a similar place: .241/.306/.310, with a strikeout rate of just over 17% and an OPS+ of 72.

2016 is a big year for Sclafani - repeat last-2014 and he will push for a spot in Houston in either the super-utility role, or in the corner infield.  Repeat 2015, and his days in the organisation may be over at the end of the season.


Interesting Guy:  Chan Moon (24, turns 25 in March)

Chan Moon is either a lefty hitting (according to Fangraphs) or switch hitting (according to B-R) middle-infielder who was born in Korea.  Moon was another guys who was Rule 5 draft eligible, but he was passed over by the other 29 clubs, going unselected.  He spent 2015 playing for four teams - Lancaster (71 PA's for a .322/.406/.475 line), Corpus (289 PA's for a .266/.356/.347 line), Fresno (7 PA's, did not reach base) and Glendale of the Arizona Fall League (.093/.241/.116).  Moon isn't young (2016 is his age 25 season) and he has a career slugging percentage of .354, so again he relies on contact and a good batting eye for value at the plate.

I won't spend much more time on Moon, and will move to the projections.  He is the longest of the long-shots AA or above in the Astros system in the middle infield.  Marcel remains silent on his abilities, which is entirely expected.  Steamer sees him hitting .229/.283/.309 for an wRC+ of 62, while ZiPS is similarly pessimistic, forecasting a .217/.271/.283 line (for an OPS+ of 55).  That isn't good.


Ex-Prospect:  Jiovanni Mier (25, turns 26 in August)

Firstly, I am aware that Mier is now in the Blue Jays system - I thought that I would post this projection for the sake of comparison with some of the other prospects.

Mier was taken as a first rounder in the height of the McLane nightmare drafts in 2009 (when McLane was trying to stay onside with Bud Selig and not go over the recommended soft-slot for draft signings) out of high school.  He briefly entered the top-100 prospect lists of Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, only to plummet quickly from prospect radar due to a significant lack of progression with the bat.  He has consistently been older at each level than you would want prospects to be, although he has been young for each level he has played.  That is unlikely to continue.

2015 saw him spend the entire year at Corpus (hitting .258/.350/.372 as a 25 year old), after he finished 2014 at AAA Oklahoma City (.250/.348/.310 in 118 plate appearances)  Going down a level is nearly never a good thing in terms of prospect development.  Meir sports a combined minor-league line of .239/.333/.340 in nearly 2800 PA's, which should tell you everything you need to know about his bat.  He has had some good stops along the way - in 200 PA's in Lancaster, he hit a solid .292/.396/.409 - but that says more about Lancaster than anything else, I would think.

Anyhow, Steamer has little hope for Mier, projecting a line similar to Chan Moon: .217/.282/.305.  ZiPS offers a projection of a similar nature: .209/.207/.295.  Again, that is not palpably better than the similarly-aged infield options listed above, nearly all of whom have performed better at higher levels in the minor leagues than Mier has.  I doubt that Mier sniffs Toronto this year, but he could be useful as a depth-piece, or as an organisational guy in the upper minors.  Best of luck to him.


The Guy They Traded:  Jed Lowrie (31, turns 32 in April)

AC readers should know all about Lowrie, who signed a 3-year sweetheart deal with the Astros prior to the 2015 season, then was traded before he could record 270 plate appearances within the contract period.  Lowrie and Handsome Jake Marisnick combined to prop up the Astros offence in April of 2015, but then Lowrie got injured, spending nearly three months on the DL after a thumb operation.  The Astros traded him for the second time to the A's for a seemingly underwhelming return and some salary relief.  I will write about the return when I talk about the bullpen later in this series.

Lowrie, as I have already written (same link as above), is a legit part-time Major League piece, so lets just head to his projections without worrying about his credentials.

Marcel likes Lowrie to log nearly 350 plate appearances, and post a .254/.321/.398 line with 9 home runs.  Steamer sees a similar line of .252/.323/.383 - the degree of similarity between Steamer and Marcel is logical, because Lowrie is an established major-league player, not an early career-guy like many of the players we have reviewed.  Oakland's ZiPS projections have not been released yet, but it seems likely that it will also project Lowrie in the vicinity of .255/.325/.400 - his established major-league performance.

Lowrie's projected OBP is better than everyone here, except Tony Kemp's OBP.  That includes MarGo.  But Lowrie also would have been circa-$4.5MM more expensive this year, and if you think MarGo's projection is a little light, then Lowrie's advantage quickly disappears.  2016 will be an interesting year to watch for Jed Lowrie, but the Astros could quickly regret letting him go.


Another Guy They Traded:  Jonathan Villar (24, turns 25 in May)

I also made my thoughts public on the Villar trade, earlier in the offseason, essentially doing the blogging equivalent of lying on the floor of my study, crying uncontrollably, kicking and punching the floor, and sobbing "why??" over and over again.  Villar was a controllable piece going forward, having logged just over 1 year of service time.  He seemed to he improving, coming off an awesome September and October for the Astros where he slashed to the tune of .381/.435/.619.  At 24, his brain might mature enough to assist his on-field concentration, and stop him from muffing easy plays.  And he had the ability to make some outrageously good plays, as well.  His ceiling is high, but his floor, sadly, is probably a little lower.  Still, dammit, I like him.

The Astros opted to retain the safer Marwin González, and traded Jonathan Villar for an unheralded prospect, who will also get discussed in the upcoming piece on starting pitchers.

Here is what the projection systems think of 2106 Jonathan Villar: Marcel sees a .251/.313/.388 triple-slash, with 6 home runs in just over 260 plate appearances.  Steamer predicts some serious regression: .239/.301/.364, not liking a walk rate of 7.8% versus a strikeout rate of 25.5%.  ZiPS is unavailable at this time, as the Brewers' projections haven't yet been released.

Perhaps that trade for Cy Snead wasn't so bad after all.


Trade Candidate:  Nil

The Astros have been frantically trading away middle-infielders all offseason.  It would have to be a doozy of a deal for them to want to add players at this juncture.  I don't see a trade candidate entering the picture.


Free Agent:  Ian Desmond

The Astros are NOT going to shell-out nine-figures for Ian Desmond to play a crappy shortstop.  But, for the purposes of comparison, lets fast-forward to his projections.

Marcel sees Desmond posting a .251/.308/.415 line, striking out 155 times against 41 walks.  Steamer is even less keen, seeing a .236/.294/.390 line, with a nearly-28% K-rate and a 7% walk rate.  If those projections are accurate, I can see Desmond sitting out until the middle of the year, especially with a QO attached.


That wraps up the Astros' middle-infield depth charts.  The Astros have doubled-down on the middle infield trio of Altuve, Correa and González by trading away Lowrie and Villar.  Waiting in the wings is a group of guys who need a big 2016 remain with the organisation.  This includes Nolan Fontana, Chan Moon and Joe Sclafani.  Tony Kemp is the pick of the non-major-leaguers in this group, but will need to be added to the 40-man at the end of the season, else he will be exposed in the Rule 5.  Kemp is the most likely - according to the projection systems that we have covered - to make a decent step forward and produce at the Major League level.

The only other point I would make is that the Astros seem a little exposed to injuries in the middle infield.  If either Correa or Altuve go down for any length of time, then that will force González into an everyday role, and bring (probably) Fontana up from the minor leagues.  If the projections are to be believed, that could prove to be a disaster, and potentially be the difference between a postseason berth and an October at the side of a pool or on a golf course.

As always, thanks for reading.  Please feel free to comment.

Jed's Back... In Oakland.

File this one under absolutely shocking, for me.  The Astros traded Jed Lowrie for the second time, and to the Athletics for the second time.  This occurs around two-and-one-half weeks short of the one year anniversary of Lowrie signing with Houston on a sweetheart free-agent deal that was meant to last three or four years, and a week or so after the Astros traded another utility-player / middle infielder away for what I thought was an underwhelming return.

(As an aside, this is the third "Jed's Back" article on Astros County.  The first is linked to above.  Here is the second.)

The Astros managed quite the haul for Jed last time they traded him to the A's.  Perhaps the haul wasn't tremendous, but the three players that the Astros got for Lowrie all remain with the organisation, and all look to have some serious upside.  Carter remains an enigma at times, as does Brad Peacock, but both of them have shown signs of putting it all together for stretches.  Max Stassi could certainly combine with either Jason Castro or Hank Conger in donning the Tools of Ignorance next year, or he could be the starting catcher for the Astros in 2017.  While the Lowrie Trade First Edition has not been a runaway win for the Astros, it at least remains intriguing, and it was a clear win to the Astros.

So what does the Lowrie Trade Second Edition Look like for the Astros.  What's that, you say??  An A-ball pitcher??  A reliever??  Frick!!  Frick-on-a-stick!!!

Man, this looks like quite the steal for the A's.  I think Jed Lowrie is underrated... and I am not the only one.  This Fangraphs article isn't quite sure what to make of Lowrie, and probably finds in more questions than it answers.  Lowrie may be a good defender... or he may not.  He may be work a lone WAR-point, or may be worth two.  His salary my be a low-grade steal, or outright theft.  Whatevs.

The bigger question for me is more around what the fudge the Astros are thinking in trading Jed Lowrie for a AA-reliever - moreso one who was drafted in the 22nd round, out of college.  I thought Lowrie had some serious value - more than what McCurry looks like at first glance - plus was signed for most of the rest of his useful baseball life for a team-friendly contract, which has the potential to turn into an outright steal.  The option year in 2018 seems like a bargain at six million (with a one million buyout), ill health be damned.

I may be missing something here, and if you disagree, please tell me why in the comments.  I thought Villar - at 24 - still had some serious room to grow, and could have developed into a switch-hitting shortstop with power and plate discipline, and the defensive chops to remain at the position.  Lowrie is less pretty defensively, but he has an excellent bat when he is hot, as evidenced by his team leading triple slash line of .300/.432/.567 through April.  Lowrie was nearly singlehandedly responsible for the Astros' offence throughout April, but he took the next three months off after he had an operation to reattach the collateral ligament in his right thumb, which was injured during a slide to the plate during an early away sweep of the Padres.  Health has certainly been his problem over the years.

If Villar brought back a middling pitching prospect, then Lowrie was exchanged for an even less heralded return.  Brandon McCurry was a 22nd round draft pick of the A's out of college in 2014.  He pitched in Hi-A and AA last year.  He is a righty, throws in the low 90's, and possesses a nasty curve, apparently.  He isn't nothing, but at first glance, he is certainly underwhelming.

That said, McCurry's numbers in the two levels that he traversed in 2015 are pretty darn good.  But this article isn't about McCurry and his dashboard stats.  This article is about underwhelming returns for major-league calibre shortstops - one young and yet to hit his ceiling, and one veteran guy - both with potentially good bats and both with positional flexibility.  Something that I would value highly if I were putting together a major-league roster.

Which leads us to a discussion about the depth the Astros have on the infield.  The middle infield positions are sewn up, with Correa and Altuve not going anywhere.  We know the Astros have crowded corners - Luis Valbuena, Matt Duffy, Chris Carter and Jon Singleton are all on the 40-man, and all have power and varying contact and plate discipline abilities.  They are all very much corner infielders defensively, and no one wants to see any of them in the outfield or up the middle.  Nolan Fontana was conspicuously added to the 40-man not long before the deadline - he is very much unproven, but his addition to the roster takes on more weight with the Lowrie trade.  But Marwin González - long a favourite of the Astros fans and front office - is the biggest winner from these trades - both the guys on the depth chart challenging his super-utility position are gone.   Lowrie probably has a better bat than González, Villar has a flashier glove and more speed, but the Astros have opted to stick with Marwin.  Interesting move.

But just because you have depth in one area of the diamond, it doesn't mean that you should sell for pennies in the dollar.  Neither Villar nor Lowrie brought back top-10 prospects from two relatively barren farm systems.  Both guys they brought back could be described as having high floors, but conversely also probably have low ceilings.  At least that is what is suggested by a quick analysis of their tools.  Neither prospect has anything in terms of name recognition.  I would classify both trades as strong from the perspectives of the Astros' trading partners, at least in the short term.  In both trades, the Astros have taken on considerably more risk.  The chances that Villar and Lowrie have been exchanged for nothing is higher than I would feel comfortable with if I were to make these trades.

There are a bunch of important aspects of the Lowrie trade that I may be ignoring, however.  Firstly, there is a salary angle to it all.  Lowrie is guaranteed $15MM for the next two years - $7.5MM in 2016 and $6.5MM in 2017, with either a $1MM buyout or a $6MM option for 2018.  That salary isn't crippling, but it is significant, and perhaps the Astros have another use for it, hence the need to free it up.  Secondly, the Astros free up a 40-man slot.  It is significant that neither prospect brought back in the Villar and Lowrie trades need to be added to the 40-man for another two years.  They will like that with the Rule 5 squeeze entering its second year.  Thirdly, it is possible that the Astros traded Lowrie out of respect - they weren't able to offer him much playing time, or any playing time they were going to offer was of the multiple-position variety, and perhaps Lowrie wasn't comfortable with either of those options.  So a conversation was had along the lines of where Jed may wish to live, and a deal was struck accordingly.  There are no indications in any of the articles that this was the case, but the Astros front office is famously tight-lipped, so I not sure we would get to hear if this was a consideration, anyhow.  There may be other aspects that I am missing, but for now, I feel a little puzzled about the returns, and I welcome learned input in the comments.

Later on, I will take a look at Cy Sneed and Brendan McCurry - there are some clear parallels between the two of them after all - but for now, this is all about the Astros trading two of my favourite switch-hitting middle-infielders.  These were both guys that I saw a role for in the future.  Both of these trades seem curious and risky, and both have involved trading legit big league talent away.  Both of these trades could turn to custard by the end of the season, too.  But both could be considered small- to moderate-wins by the end of 2018.

I hope Jeff Luhnow knows what he is doing.  Time, as always, will tell.

In between award ceremonies, the Astros get some work done

We interrupt the regularly scheduled Exit Music (For A Music) series to quickly acknowledge the flurry of transactions that occurred earlier today.  The Constable has beaten me to the punch, but I was wanting to write some thoughts about Jonathan Villar regardless, so I thought that I would plough on.  I didn't expect the ol' Constable to post anything today, because I thought he would still be dancing in joy about Jonathan Villar joining another organisation.  He has, after all, made his feelings about Villar known over the last few years, most recently dusting off the face-butt-plant image on June 8, right before Carlos Correa made his ML debut.

I feel differently about Villar to most people, however.  I always pulled for him to succeed, because I really enjoyed watching him play.  I was able to keep the memories of the freaky-good defensive plays that he made, and I managed to erase the memories of the muffed routine plays that he tended to blow.  He had periods at the plate when he looked like he was locked in, and in those periods, if you squinted, you could see 15 or 20 home-run power, an OBP of .330-.340, and 40-odd steals in a year.  All that from a young, controllable, switch-hitting shortstop who had some serious athletic potential in the field.

The miscues always seemed to come at the wrong time.  That awful play when he fell over Jose Reyes who was standing on second base - right before Correa's call up - was brutally unlucky, I thought.  Perhaps a superior defender would have found a way to make that play, but Villar muffed it, and the Astros lost the game a couple of pitches later.  But the good bits always seemed to be pretty good, too.  For a period of time in September, and when it seemed like the rest of the Astros offence was struggling, Villar had a hot run at the plate, managing a couple of big hits in key situations.  He contributed a solid .284/.339/.414 line in the Bigs in his 128 plate appearances this year, but his .381/.435/.619 line in 23 September and October plate appearances got me thinking that he might have a future with the Astros.  I get that he was trade bait, but I wondered whether the Astros might look to trade one of their other utility guys, and keep Villar for 2016.

Even the manner in which he was traded was a little disappointing.  I always thought that Villar would be winging his way to San Deigo, with perhaps Luis Valbuena and Mark Appel in exchange for Tyson Ross or something.  Or perhaps he would allow the Braves to trade Erik Aybar in a larger exchange for Freddie Freeman, again with a platoon of other minor leaguers.   I guess I expected more than a #26-rated Brewers prospect, a low velocity guy who "has fringe-average stuff" for example.  It's not that Cy Sneed is nothing (although he does sound like an olde-timey golfey-baseballing guy), but I personally valued Villar a little higher than the initially perceived return.

(As an aside, Cy Sneed has some serious major-league facial hair - the kind the Astros lost when they traded Daniel Mengden to the A's - and Sneed also had a serious breakout season across two A-ball levels in 2015.  So I absolutely accept that I am not in a position to judge the return, I just thought that if Villar was going to bring someone back, it would be more of a headlining trade that he would be involved in.)

And so there is the problem.  My perception of Jonathan Villar is distorted, as perceptions tend to be.  We are all human, after all, and we all have trouble putting biases to one side, and being objective.  To me, Villar also represented the Astros' rebuild - a toolsy player that could be given a chance to stake his ML claim - with a bit of underdog sprinkled in.  And I love me some underdog.

Anyhow, every fan has funny little biases and weird misperceptions that lead to player favouritism.  If you had a thing for Robbie Grossman, then this would have been an even worse day for you.  I kind of liked the idea of Luis Cruz as well, and I wondered whether he would be the lefty out of the 'pen next year.  Who wouldn't root for an undersized strikeout guy (although he wasn't much of a strikeout guy above AA) who didn't appear on many prospect lists??  But all three of these now ex-Stros have been removed from the 40-man, making way for the next group of prospects for us biased fans to salivate over, and form distorted biases and beliefs about.

Villar's departure may sting a little if he suddenly finds a way to minimise the silly mistakes, and consistently put together good at-bats.  Joining David Stearns and most of the rest of the Astros' boom-or-bust prospects in Milwaukee is probably not the worst career move, either.  But this has merely been a long-winded way of saying that I will miss him (or more accurately, his potential) even if most Astros fans don't.

Or as the Constable would say... good night, sweet prince.

Astros make moves, clear 40-Man space

So the Astros did a few things today. Let's see what Those Things are...

*Released Robbie Grossman. Grossman was acquired in the Wandy trade on July 24, 2012 with Grossman, Colton Cain and Rudy Owens coming over from Pittsburgh. Grossman, who rejected (or his agent rejected, or it fell apart, or whatever) a contract extension reportedly for 6yrs/$13.5m back in March 2014, never could put it together for the Astros. After a somewhat promising 2013 season in which he hit .268/.332/.770, Grossman got 422 plate appearances in 2014, hitting .233/.337/.333, with 105K:55BB. He got 54 plate appearances in 2015, hitting .143/.222/.245.

*Released Luis Cruz. Cruz, a 25-year old LHP, was the Astros' 9th Round pick in the 2008 draft. In eight minor-league seasons, Cruz had a 49-42 record with a 4.40 ERA/1.34 WHIP. He spent all of 2015 in Fresno, throwing 116IP, 119H/55ER, 93K:52BB.

*Traded Jonathan Villar to the Milwaukee Stearns for Cy Young Sneed. Ahhh, Jonathan Villar.  Acquired in the Philly/Roy Oswalt trade for Anthony Gose and J.A. Happ, Villar joined the team immediately, and...hit .243/.321/.319. Whatever, he was 22. He played in a career-high 87 games in 2014, getting 289 PAs and hitting .209/.267/.354. It was bad. Villar got pushed out after Carlos Correa was clearly The Truth, but he hit a respectable .284/.339/.414. It was surprising. So with no obvious place to play, the Astros moved him.

So who is this Cy Sneed? The 23-year old Sneed was the Brewers' 3rd Round pick in 2014 out of Dallas Baptist University. He's a big drink of water - 6'4" 185lbs - and had a pretty great 2015 season. In 139.1IP between the Midwest League and High-A, Sneed allowed 129H/40ER, with 122K:28BB. This is Good.

Basically, the Astros got a pitcher who performed very well in exchange for a player with no position and some bad memories, and cleared three spots off the 40-Man Roster (which now sits at 34) in advance of the Rule 5 draft and any potential 25-Man additions.

Further Cy Sneed reading:
Brew Crew Ball - June 2014

MiLB Organization All-Stars

MiLB announced the Astros' organizational all-stars today. Click the link for the full breakdown, but here you have them by position:

Catcher: Jacob Nottingham (RIP)
First Base: A.J. Reed
Second Base: Tony Kemp
Third Base: Matt Duffy
Shortstop: Jonathan Villar (the Astros should call this kid up and see what they have in him, imo)
Outfielders: Derek Fisher, Jon Kemmer, Brett Phillips (RIP)
Utility/DH: Tyler White

RHP: Joe Musgrove
LHP: Bryan Radziewski
Reliever: Jandel Gustave

Presented Without Comment

Via Twitter Genius Link Calhoun, I present to you the director's cut of the 2013 Astros season...

@AstrosCounty the '2013 Astros season DVD' directors cut is really dark. pic.twitter.com/WwoomWslqo

— Calhoun (@linkcalhoun) October 26, 2015

Monday Morning Hot Links

It is June 8, my friends. Correa Day. All Correa's Day. Draft Day. Monday. However you want to label it. With the Astros getting Villar'd yesterday, the Astros have a 3.5 game lead and a 48.5% chance of winning the division, with a 61.8% chance of making the postseason.

*Luhnow talked about the reasoning behind promoting Correa:
Our team could use the spark right now. We haven't been playing our best baseball over the past few days and hopefully Carlos can add something that's been missing. We have to try and do everything we can to maintain our division lead and get this team to the postseason, and if calling up Carlos Correa helps us do that, that's what we're prepared for.

*In that previous link, Luhnow said he did talk with Jed Lowrie about bringing Correa up:
It's probably 33 games between now and the All-Star Game and you assume Jed's going to be back after the All-Star break, so that gives us a good amount of time to see how Carlos is doing and we'll determine at that point where everybody fits.

*Corpus manager Rodney Linares:
Carlos is going to be a good player for a long, long time. He's going to help us win championships, and he's also going to be a great ambassador for our game.

*ESPN's Christina Kahrl, on Correa's call-up:
This becomes just the most recent example of a team going young while also going for it, with examples like the Cubs this year, the Diamondbacks when they called up Paul Goldschmidt to solve their first-base problem en route to the 2011 postseason or the Braves bringing up Andruw Jones for the stretch run in 1996. It's a thing.

*The Astros close the book on the 2014 draft and get ready to open the 2015 draft. Luhnow:
We've been out scouting, we've been talking to advisors, players, parents, etc. I think more than anything, the fact that the Astros' plan seems to be coming together, and it's starting to work and make some sense, I think is drawing more interest to players potentially signing with us. So I think we're in a pretty good spot.

*Cole Hamels is, diplomatically, happy in Philadelphia.

So we close with the two lasting images of Jonathan Villar's tenure:

Good night, sweet prince.

State of the Astros: Shortstop

Over the next several days/couple weeks, I'd like to take a position-by-position look at the Astros, getting a quick overview of the current starters, backups, and minor league players who could contribute this season.

Starter - Jed Lowrie (Injured)

Back for his second stint with Houston, Jed continues to keep up spinning around the roller coaster of promise and disappointment. He carried the offense for the first three or so weeks then predictably hit the DL for a few months. He's due back some time around the All Star break, but hand and wrist injuries can be tough to come back from while maintaining pre-injury levels of production. Will we get back the Jed that can be a top offensive SS, or will we get something more similar to his last year with Oakland? And will he even be our starting SS anymore? He already has about 1 WAR in the back, so even with his injury he'll probably get to 2 WAR as long as he gets regular playing time. Whether that's at shortstop, third base, or in a utility role will be something to watch in the second half.

Reasonable end of season projection ranges

AVG - .250-.290
OBP - .320-.350
SLG - .370-.430

Backup - Marwin Gonzalez

Marwin currently has the most games played of those who have played short for Houston this year, but he's really a utility player. Though his total production isn't too far off from his career numbers, he's been doing it a bit differently this year. His walk rate has plummeted from acceptable to abysmal at just .9% but his power has been a bit up to balance that out some. He's not cut out to be an everyday player, but he has value in being able to handle multiple positions adequately and providing roster flexibility. He's on pace to be essentially replacement level, as usual.

Reasonable end of season projections

AVG - .230-.260

OBP - .250-.300

SLG - .340-.400

Backup - Jonathan Villar

Villar's been getting a little more playing time than Marwin lately and he's been about what we expected; flashes of amazing potential followed by extremely frustrating mental lapses. He's actually hitting fairly well for a shortstop, helping himself by significantly reducing his strikeout rate so far. Prior to Lowrie's injury the organization was trying to give him some reps both around the infield and in the outfield, so perhaps he could be a more dynamic yet erratic version of Marwin. Ultimately either Gonzalez or Villar won't stay with the club for the long-term, so hopefully one of them takes advantage of this competition.

Reasonable end of season projections

AVG - .220-.270

OBP - .280-.320

SLG - .340-.370

Prospect - Carlos Correa

This is the guy that we all know (little about how he'll perform in the big leagues) and love (until he has his first struggles and we all say he's not ready yet). But in all seriousness, Correa has just about closed the book on his minor league career by forcing Houston's hand with his performance. He's slowed a bit since being promoted to Fresno, but there's no way he carries his .246 BABIP for long and his BB and K rates show he's not over-matched. I wouldn't be shocked if the best prospect in the Astros organization, if not all of baseball, has spent his last full month in the minors. You never know exactly how a player will transition to the big leagues, but Correa's strongest tool may be his makeup so even if he stumbles out of the gate I don't expect him to be overwhelmed. He'll likely get a firm grip on the starting shortstop job this summer.

Prospect - Nolan Fontana

Fontana doesn't have the high ceiling of Correa, but he's the type of prospect that could be described as having a high floor. His calling card is his plate discipline, as his walk rates hover around an astounding 20%. He doesn't have a lot of power and doesn't hit for a high average, but it's rare for a player to get on base over 40% of the time, even in the minors. He's solid in the field, though not spectacular, and with Correa clearly the SS of the future he's been seeing time at 2B the last couple years.

Prospect - Joan Mauricio

Mauricio was one of Houston's international free agent signings last year and thus hasn't seen much time in organized ball. MLB.com ranks him as Houston's #30 prospect, though, and describes him as an excellent fielder with raw power at the plate. He's very, very far away but he may be a name to keep tabs on over the next few years.

Summary

It's hard to put a firm grade on this position when so much hinges on a 20 year old with less than 40 games above A ball. Marwin and Villar would get a C-, Lowrie would get a C+/B (depending on his return from injury), and Correa could be anywhere from a C to an A+ this year. Long term, though, let's go with an A assuming Correa is even 80% of what we expect.

Monday Morning Hot Links

The Astros lost yesterday, so did the Mariners; but the Angels, Rangers, and A's won, putting the Astros' lead at 4.0 games. FanGraphs gives the Astros a 35.4% chance of winning the division, with a 57.9% chance of making the postseason - highest in the American League.

*The Astros got four doubles and a triple yesterday and still got shutout. The last time the Astros had 4+ XBH and didn't score a run was May 23, 1991 when the Astros had doubles from Biggio, Bagwell, Steve Finley, and Luis Gonzalez, and lost 2-0 to the Dodgers. Tuffy Rhodes and Casey Candaele played in that game for the Astros.

*In the last two games, Jonathan Villar made three errors and three TOOTBLANs. He left the clubhouse before talking to the media yesterday.

*Sam Deduno's rehab assignment has been shut down due to hip pain.

*Michael Feliz is headed back to Corpus, but was appreciative of the opportunity to pitch an inning in Houston. His option will make way for Brett Oberholtzer to test out that blister once again on Monday night against Baltimore.

*2014 1-37 pick Derek Fisher broke a 61-year old Cal League record by driving in 12 runs with two grand slams in his first game for Lancaster on Saturday night.

*Here's the Masked Marvel on the Ghosts of Astros Past: SP edition

*Some May 2015 hitting statistics for you:

Evan Gattis: .276/.304/.629, 20K:5BB
George Springer: .247/.396/.468, 25K:19BB
Preston Tucker: .317/.354/.433, 12K:6BB
Chris Carter: .215/.318/.441, 38K:15BB
Jason Castro: .250/.289/.444, 22K:3BB
Jose Altuve: .231/.294/.343, 12K:9BB
Marwin Gonzalez: .250/.250/.359, 14K:0BB
Luis Valbuena: .163/.212/.337, 27K:6BB

And some May pitching lines:

Dallas Keuchel: 44.2IP, 37H/13ER, 38K:10BB (2.62 ERA)
Pat Neshek: 10IP, 4H/0ER, 8K:0BB (0.40 WHIP)
Josh Fields: 11.2IP, 3H/1ER, 19K:4BB (0.77 ERA)
Chad Qualls: 11IP, 10H/6ER, 10K:1BB (2.45 ERA)
Collin McHugh: 39IP, 43H/22ER, 29K:7BB, 8 HR allowed (5.08 ERA)
Fausto Carmona: 36.2IP, 45H/23ER, 14K:11BB (5.65 ERA)
Luke Gregerson: 10.2IP, 11H/7ER, 14K:5BB (5.91 ERA)

Hoes Down, Chapman Up, plus Jed Lowrie's Injury.

L.J. Hoes was optioned to AAA after the first game of the Mariners series, with lefty relieved Kevin Chapman being summonsed to take his place.  The Mariners lean left in their batting lineup, so this move is totally understandable.  Remember when the Astros were fiddling with their starting rotation a year ago to get lefty starters to throw against the Mariners?  In the meantime, the Astros will play with a 3-man bench with plenty of positional flexibility - Conger, Grossman, Villar and González are all switch hitters, with the latter two having played nearly every position on the diamond and one of the two are expected to start at short in some kind of semi-platoon.

Lowrie's injury got me thinking.  Firstly, about how good the Lowrie contract was in the offseason.  When he departed in 2013 - after being acquired for a mercurial reliever - he had rebuilt his value with nearly 400 solid plate appearances on a bad team.  He raked for a middle infielder in 2013 over 154 games for Oakland (119 OPS+), and when he entered 2014, I wondered whether the Yankees would tab him as the interim replacement for DJ2, and offer him boatloads of cash in the process.  But his play in 2014 was not great, and it may have cost him a fair bit in contract money, but 3-and-23 is still an absolute bargain.  Especially when the guy mashes to a 179 OPS+ through the first 12% of the season.

Secondly, Lowrie is out until after the ASB, and he is going to rejoin the team as a fresh set of legs with around 2-and-one-half of the season to go.  If there are no lingering issues to his thumb - and there probably shouldn't be - then he will at least serve as a solid stretch-run addition.  Neither González or Villar is going to be a total naught at shortstop, and Lowrie has been unsustainably hot so the regression monster was starting to take an interest.  Perhaps the drop off in production could be less than first thought.

And while we are acknowledging the glass-half-full opinion of Lowrie's injury, it seems reasonable to look at how the Astros could use the DL time and roster spot to their best advantage.  No one seemed surprised when Jonathan Villar was called up - and they shouldn't have been - because he remains the logical replacement.  He has experience, positional flexibility, is a switch hitter, and a month ago was in the midst of a solid spring.  He also needs reps at the ML level to see what kind of player he will become, and the Astros would be wise to give him that opportunity now, lest they are forced to cut bait at some time in the future with that question unanswered.  Villar can do stuff on the field that other people simply can't, and I seem to remember that around a year ago, he was leading the Astros starters in slugging.  What I am trying to saw is that his ceiling is significant.

So Villar was always going to get the call up, although fans could be forgiven for being disappointed that the computer didn't spit out Carlos Correa's name.  Delay Correa's call up until this time next year (which would be developmentally very forgivable) and you get control until after the World Series in 2021.  Call him up now - and if you can't realistically return him to the minors because of solid performance - and you move his free-agency date to late 2020.  With the team winning as it is, and with a Villar-like candidate with his service clock already ticking, Correa wasn't ever coming up.

L.J. Hoes was called up for the series in the NL ballpark to allow for more of a pinch hitting option.  He was hot in AAA (.418/.458/.658 in a hitter-friendly league), but he only managed one plate appearance and one pinch-running appearance over the series.  With Sam Deduno starting - and likely to be restricted to around 60 pitches for this start - and with the pitchers hitting back in Houston, a 4-man bench is a luxury.  So the extra lefty reliever in Chapman was summonsed to counter the Mariners' lefty leaning lineup.

So, all pretty logical to this point, huh??  But Sam Deduno is (i) either going to return to being a long reliever or (ii) going to be stretched out to start full time and an extra arm won't be needed in the 'pen.  Either way, in a month or so, the fifth starter spot will hopefully be much clearer and someone who can carry a decent pitch load.  Either Obie or Peacock will be back, or Wojo would have benefitted from his time in AAA, or Deduno's name will appear in more permanent ink on the lineup card in the fifth starter slot.  So perhaps a four man bench in AL ballparks will become more defensible.

Assuming Conger and Grossman remain permanent bench players, and González and Hoes share shortstop duties, how could the Astros use this extra slot?  There are a number of interesting possibilities.  Preston Tucker is tearing up AAA right now, but he isn't on the 40-man, so another move would need to be made.  L.J. Hoes could pop back up and get more of a chance to mash.  Domingo Santana is another outfield possibility, and everyone remembers his time in the Majors from last year.  Jon Singleton is hitting .243/.369/.514 with four jacks, so perhaps he could get a look.  Nolan Fontana bats lefty, plays short, and is hitting .250/.394/.411, so he could be a possibility if Villar struggles (but isn't on the 40-man either, so a corresponding move would need to be made).  Joe Sclafani is a switch-hitter with positional flexibility, so he could get a look for a month or so, but this is becoming more of a long-shot with every name mentioned.

In terms of corresponding transactions, the guy on the 40-man who is at AAA who isn't performing well is our old friend, Matt Dominguez.  He has played 16 games, and is hitting .250/.299/.317 with no home runs.  I would hate to see Matty D leave the organisation, mostly because of how he would gently lays the bat down and trot around the bases at a good clip on home run balls.  Even if he crushed it and it was a massive home run in the context of the game, he always acted the same.  Showboating wasn't really his style, and when a guy is struggling in the majors and isn't taking the opportunity to show people up, then that earns some respect from me.

Of course, Matty D may be working on something very specific with the hitting coaches, and his number may have taken a hit on the basis that he is in an adjustment phase.  Numbers don't tell the whole story, and the Astros have been a scouting-savvy organisation recently, despite their reputation as ruthless number-crunchers.  There may be a plan with Matt D that I know nothing about - that would not surprise me at all.  The possibility of an adjustment may protect Matt somewhat.

This entry has gotten too long again, but I hope that my point has been made.  Jed's injury will keep him out for 2-3 months, and the first month or so of that will probably involve a short bench.  However, once the fifth starter - swingman areas of the pitching staff sort themselves out, the Astros have all sorts of tantalising options.  These include a number of guys that need a few months in the majors to see what they could become as players.  This list includes both guys that have seen The Show before (Hoes, Santana and Singleton) plus guys currently knocking on the door, that may need to be added to the 40-man.  A roster spot may have to be created, and Matty D looks to be at the stage of his career where he needs to hit better, or he may be struggling for a job.

Either way, the presence of too many players for too few roster spots on a first-place team is something that Astros fans should relish.

Tuesday Morning Link Dump

As the Masked Marvel wrote up in his Game Recap, the 12-7 Astros have secured a winning month, assured of at least a 12-10 record to start the season.

*Hoes up, Woj down. L.J. Hoes has been called up from Fresno while the struggling Asher Wojciechowski was sent down to get his stuff right. With the three-game set in San Diego, the Astros brought up Hoes to provide an extra pinch-hit bat, if necessary. Not that Hoes didn't earn the call-up, he's hitting .418 with a .458 OBP in 2015, but - I think we fans should get used to this - the Astros didn't call up Preston Tucker, who is killing the ball right now and is also not striking out all that often (13K in 79PA). It'll likely be the same thing if we find out that Jed Lowrie will be out an extended period of time - count on Villar, not Correa, making his way to Houston. Being an Astros fan is all about delayed gratification.

*Also within that link, we find that the Astros will now need a starting pitcher for Friday against the Mariners, and could turn to Sam Deduno. Deduno has made five appearances - all in relief - but he recoreded 7+ outs in two of those relief spots. Drellich says Handsome Dan Straily or Jake Buchanan are options to start, but Deduno is already on the team and could make a couple of starts until Brett Oberholtzer is able to overcome that blister.

*George Springer is working to cut down the extra effort on his swing.

*Jonathan Villar wasn't happy about being optioned to Fresno in favor of Josh Fields. But then he remembered that he'd at least get to play regularly, and he cheered up:
It doesn't matter, I just want to play. I don't want to be sitting in the dugout. They didn't push me down because I wasn't hitting or doing my work. The coaches told me about the situation, how they needed a pitcher, and I understood that.

*Here's an interesting story on minor-leaguer Brock Dykxhoorn, who was cut from his club hockey team in high school, turned to baseball, and ended up as the Astros' 6th-Round pick in the 2014 draft despite not being a full-time pitcher until his senior year in high school.

*Unrelated to the Astros, but here's an example of how not to act as a blog. Or a human. (Don't read it).

Thursday Morning Link Dump

Get yer hot links here...

*Former shortstop Julio Lugo is wanted in the Dominican Republic for attempted kidnapping...

*Josh Fields will be activated from the DL on Friday, joining the Astros in Oakland, and option Jonathan Villar to Fresno. That'll make 13 pitchers on the roster when the Astros go to San Diego on Monday.

*Marwin Gonzalez changed how he uses his hands, and watches more video now.

*Brad Peacock has an intercostal strain, and could be out for weeks.

*Even before hitting his 1st HR of the season, Chris Carter said he was starting to feel better at the plate.

*Our old pal Nick Tropeano will make his major-league debut tonight for the Angels. Wandy Rodriguez will start for the Rangers on Friday.

Wednesday Morning Link Dump

Happy Jackie Robinson Day. This is my favorite Jackie Robinson story ever.

*The Astros drop another one, getting shut out by the A's 4-0, to fall to 3-5 on the young albeit painful season. As a team they're "hitting" .197/.277/.320 with 79 strikeouts (but 29 walks!) in eight games.

*Chris Carter and Evan Gattis are a combined 4x54 with no extra-base hits, 23K:3BB.

*Jason Castro, however, is 6x20 with 4K:5BB.

On to the links...

*A.J. Hinch summed up the loss to the A's:
We just weren't able to get that hit that catapulted us. Some good at-bats; some bad at-bats. And then ultimately no runs. That's not a good combo.

*Jonathan Villar was shooting for no errors in 2015. And then, uh, Monday happened.
I'm going to try to leave it there and not make any more errors. 

*FanGraphs posted a good article on Dallas Keuchel, and whether 2014 was a fluke

*It's the anniversary of the best tweet ever by yours truly:

Three years ago today, we busted out my favorite AC tweet ever: "The Astros have been asked not to wear #42, in honor of Jackie Robinson"
— Thickie Don (@AstrosCounty) April 15, 2012

Sunday Morning Hot Links

Here are the hawtest links in the land...

*MLBPA head Tony Clark spoke to the Chronicle about the Astros, who are working their way off the union's crap list. Trying to change Ryan Vogelsong's contract after his medical (sound familiar?) doesn't help.

*Collin McHugh struggled, Michael Feliz didn't, and Brad Peacock and Preston Tucker are on the mend.

*Jonathan Villar was hit by a pitch above the right knee BUT! is okay.

*The Astros helped a little league team.

*A producer who worked on The Imitation Game has picked up the rights to a movie about Roger Clemens.

*Delino DeShields is out for the Rangers with a sore hamstring. If he doesn't make the Rangers' Opening Day roster, he comes back to the Astros.

*Brian Bogusevic hit two homers for the Phillies.

*Here's a great story about former Astro Enrique Hernandez

*Former Astros executive and 1953 MVP Al Rosen passed away at age 91

Monday Morning Spring Training Update

Here's what you'll need to know as you start your first full week with actual baseball activities in 52 years*

(* - approximately)

*Interesting story out of Chicago, as apparently-former-Astro Jesse Crain made it to White Sox camp and had some things to say about his upcoming season:
(The previous relationship) was a huge part of why I came back here. I'm going to come in here and go at the pace we need to go at, whatever that might be...They are going to take care of me and make sure I'm right. They aren't going to rush me to get out there. In that sense, it was a perfect fit.

Now whether he's just highlighting how sweet the White Sox are or making a comparison between the White Sox and Astros, we of course do not know. But given that the Astros gave Crain over $3m to not throw a single pitch, I can see how they'd be a little anxious about Crain's distinct lack of, you know, pitching.

*Evan Drellich has a big ol' notebook for everyone. Of particular import: Chris Carter will see more time at 1B and Evan Gattis will start the spring in LF, while Jonathan Villar is going to focus on playing 2B/3B to be more of a utility player.

*Jason Castro is working on putting all aspects of his game together.

*And Castro talked about catching Pat Neshek.

*A.J. Hinch is big on having an open door, as well as communicating - a groundbreaking strategy in any business. No one has ever in the history of baseball considered these ideas in regards to management.

*Roger Clemens stopped by camp and talked to the, and also said that there's "just as much talent here as there is in" Kansas City. So...

*Mike Foltynewicz talked about 2015 with the Braves.