Saturday Morning Link Dump

*FanGraphs just projected a 75-87 season for the Astros in 2015.

*A.J. Hinch is one of the reasons Luke Gregerson signed with Houston. And, ultimately, the Astros added Gregerson and Neshek for less than Andrew Miller and David Robertson.

*Neshek's contract:
2015: $5.5m; 2016: $6.5m; 2017: $6.5m option or $500,000 buyout, but can get to $7.5-8.5m based on games finished.

*"Thank you. Thank you, man." -Brent Strom to Jim Crane

*Luke Gregerson is (possibly) your new closer. Or Qualls. Who knows.

*Palm Beach County is reconsidering a deal to build the Astros and Nationals a new Spring Training facility.

*Jose Altuve will play winter ball for Magallanes in the Venezuelan Winter League.

*Wilton Lopez signed a minor-league deal with Toronto.

In Defense of the Lopez Deal

The Wilton Lopez deal has come under some scrutiny, questioning the return for the Astros closer. I am not a scout, and don't have a feel for how Alex White will do outside of Coors Field, but I do believe that these are the kinds of deals that the Astros have to make right now. If we have any trust in the Astros scouting and player development side, which I do, I think we have to accept that this deal has the potential to help.

The thing about relievers is they are the most fungible assets a team has. A shutdown closer is a luxury for any team, and an unnecessary one for a rebuilding team. If the Astros can turn their closer into a young starting pitcher with upside, even one with question marks, I believe they have to do it. And I don't have any doubts that White has upside. His numbers were awful last year, but he was only 23 in Coors Field. His peripherals, if not his results, were better on the road. He has consistently dominated in the minors, and was a top 50 prospect as recently as 2011. Will he pan out? I have no idea, but he is in no way a lost cause.

Looking at this another way, the Astros traded 70 innings for 150 -180 innings. That has value, even if the quality of the pitching is not equivalent. In 2011, Wilton Lopez was very good, pitching 71 innings with a 2.79 era. He accumulated .5 WAR. In 2012, Alex White was horrible, pitching 98 innings with a 5.51 era. He accumulated .5 WAR.  WAR is obviously not perfect, particularly when it comes to relievers, but it does demonstrate how much more valuable a starting pitcher is than a reliever. If we see even marginal improvement in White, combined with more innings, White can easily match the 1.4 WAR from Lopez's stellar 2012. (To put that in perspective, Bud Norris has 1.5 WAR last year. Can White match Norris' 2012? I sure hope so). None of this takes into account Lopez's health issues, which allegedly killed a previous deal, or the other Alex that came back in the deal.

At the end of the day, White might never live up to the high expectations he has had so recently, and this deal might be looked back on as an abject failure.  But I still think that this is a deal that has to be made.

Wilton Lopez traded to the Rockies

A timeline of the Wilton Lopez trade to the Rockies:

10:27pm: McTaggart, quoting Luhnow, says White will be in the rotation. Luhnow says Ambriz and Cosart are possibilities for the now-vacant closer role in Houston.

10:11pm: @Rockies:
Rockies have acquired RHP Wilton Lopez and player to be named later or cash from HOU for RHPs Alex White and Alex Gillingham. 

10:08pm: Troy Renck:
Rockies acquire Lopez for Alex White and a minor-league pitcher. 

10:01pm: Troy Renck:
I expect Rockies to land Lopez...teams ironing out last few wrinkles. 

9:53pm: Brian McTaggart:
Wilton Lopez to the Rockies. More to come. 

9:26pm: Troy Renck:
Rockies would look to send two young pitchers to Houston for Lopez, a proven setup man. Parker Frazier would not be in deal. 

9:11pm: Troy Renck tweets:
Rockies closing in on acquiring Wilton Lopez from Astros. Know that the Astros like AA pitcher Parker Frazier. 

7:51pm: Troy Renck:
Rockies continue looking to add relief help and have talked with Astros about Wilton Lopez. If health fine, and told is OK, he'd help.

Lopez Talks Fall Through

The deal with the Phillies for Wilton Lopez has hit a snag, and it seems to be all but dead, based on this report from Brian McTaggart. The reported deal was Lopez for Phillies prospects Sebastian Valle and Tyler Cloyd. The Phillies appear to have balked at the results of Lopez's physical.

The Astros are not in a position in their development where holding on to their closer, or any reliever for that matter, is worth passing on legitimate talent in a trade.  However, Lopez is cost controlled through 2016, and proved to be the most (only?) reliable member of the bullpen last year. I would not have been devastated to see him go, but I am glad he is sticking around for now. Unless whatever the Phillies saw in the physical does him in, which is a very real possibility.

Phillies are doing something with Wilton Lopez

Jim Salisbury, the Phillies Insider at CSN Philly, says the Phillies are in "serious talks" with the Astros to acquire Wilton Lopez. Ken Rosenthal has confirmed Salisbury's report. Salisbury says Lopez would be the set-up man for Papelbon.

Lopez was selected off waivers by Ed Wade from the Padres in 2009, and has spent his entire Major-League career with the Astros. From 2010-2012, Lopez has posted a 2.64 ERA / 1.13 WHIP, walking just 31 of the 820 batters he has faced over those three season. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.

Brian Smith reminds us that, in order to give up a guy under team control for three seasons, Luhnow would want major- and minor-league talent in return.

Jon Heyman basically says the deal is done, both sides are just finalizing prospects. Heyman says those prospects will be "near-ML ready."

Update: Luhnow says there is "nothing to report" regarding the trade.

Updated Update: McTaggart has "a baseball source" who says the deal is being finalized. The Philadelphia Inquirer's  Bob Brookover says that Lopez is in Philadelphia for a physical.

11:06am: The New Jersey Star-Ledger report indicates that there is one prospect coming back in the deal.

11:36am: CBS Philly says there are "minor-leaguers," plural, going to Houston.

1:02pm: via Todd Zolecki, the Phillies' prospects have been agreed upon.

1:26pm: Prospect Insider says the deal is pending the physical, with two players going to Houston.

1:41pm: ESPN's Kiley McDaniel says that Lopez's physical "isn't a slam dunk," and other teams have been scared about Lopez's medical reports. Remember that back in July/August, Lopez had some elbow tightness and was "unavailable" for a period of time. Last March, Lopez also had forearm issues.And in April 2011, Lopez had neuritis in his pitching elbow.

1:50pm: CSNPhilly says:
A source said they would get two players who have played in the upper levels of the minors if the deal is finalized. That's a decent-sized "if," given Lopez's medical history. But it does look like there are two higher-level minor-leaguers in the deal, which could include 22-year old catcher Sebastian Valle.

Wilton Lopez has some elbow tightness

Brian McTaggart tweeted (yesterday afternoon) that Wilton Lopez experienced some tightness and was "unavailable tonight."

To over-examine a tweet, "tonight" means that they're being precautionary with it, which is good. But it's obviously a troubling sign for the Closer-Who-Has-Not-Yet-Closed (a new category in ESPN Fantasy Leagues).

UPDATE: Zachary Levine updates this story, saying that he's available to pitch today, and that he just had a hard time getting loose before last night's game.

Also in the 2nd link, we find that there's no timetable for Jed Lowrie's return, and J.D. Martinez has been out with an elbow issue after he slipped in the dugout. If that's not the most Astros thing you've heard today, I can't help you.

Castro may return next week

In the latest edition of Brian McTaggart's Notebook, Jason Castro says that his troublesome right knee is feeling better, with the possibility that he'll be back on the field for Houston in about a week.

Also in Tag's notes:

*Wilton Lopez was on call as Houston's closer last night. Whether CoCo gets another shot remains to be seen...

*Wesley Wright (2008) and Bud Norris (2009) are now your Astros' senior statesmen.

*Pittsburgh's starter on Saturday will look awfully familiar, as Magic Wandy ups his street cred with a new fight song.

Tranzactionz and potential tranzactionz

In McTaggart's Notebook we find a few things:

*Matt Dominguez has been optioned to OKC, and Justin Maxwell is likely to take his roster spot.
*Chris Johnson will likely slide back to 3B, possibly making room for Brett Wallace.
*Marwin Gonzalez could be rehabbing in OKC for another week and a half.
*Wilton Lopez is probably coming back to the bullpen after the Break.

Meat Wagon update

Bud Norris is unlikely to start on Sunday due to the sprained knee he suffered against the Giants on Tuesday.

Mills:
"He said he was still a little tentative with it to where he wasn't sure if he was actually going to feel it when he landed."

Wilton Lopez is headed to the DL with a sprained right elbow. Fernando Abad has been activated. Lopez has appeared in 32 games - 4th-most in baseball (and two games behind Wesley Wright, the 2nd-most-used reliever in baseball).

And it looks like Carlos Lee will be back tomorrow (Sunday). Measure your celebrations accordingly.

Ozzie would have chased Wilton Lopez's ass all the way to Puerto Rico

So when Wilton Lopez made the Lo Viste sign at the Marlins dugout after hitting Hanley Ramirez, Ozzie Guillen - of course - had some things to say.

Ozzie:
"Very mature. He's lucky I wasn't Hanley. I would have chased his [rear] all the way to Puerto Rico."

Which is interesting, because Wilton Lopez is from Leon, Nicaragua.

UPDATE: Zachary Levine beat me to the joke.

Spring Training Awards!

What with the end of the Grapefruit League season, and with a few exhibition games remaining, it's time to announce the 2012 Spring Training Award winners...

The J.R. Towles Memorial March Hitter of the Spring Award

Chris Johnson. Johnson led the team (min. 20 ABs) in batting average (.368), SLG (.737), homers (5), doubles (6), and OPS (1.116), staking a claim to the 3B1 job and sending Brett Wallace back to Triple-A.

The Taylor Buchholz Memorial March Pitcher of the Spring Award

Wilton Lopez. In 9IP, Lopez allowed 4H/1ER, 11K:0BB, and a .138 BAA.

Wilton Lopez shut down with forearm stiffness

Wilton Lopez has been shut down with forearm stiffness "for a few days," but Brad Mills doesn't think it's all that serious. In 3IP this Spring, Lopez has allowed 0H/0ER, 5K:0BB.

Levine's Notebook is chock-full of goodness

Information-wise, anyway. Among the nuggets:

*Tommy Manzella will always be partial to the Astros.

*Henry Sosa will start Monday night against the Cubs.

*Jordan Schafer will go on a rehab assignment next week.

*Brad Mills is worried about Wilton Lopez:
“We’re in a situation where his velocity is there and arm strength is not an issue and health is not an issue. We’re seeing we’re not quite getting the movement, whether his velocity is so good he’s throwing through the movement or it’s a mechanical thing.”

Elias Rankings update

Over at MLBTR, they have done some slick engineering to determine the Type A/Type B status of various players to determine compensation for signing arbitration-eligible. Click the link for the full list, but here's what we're looking at, Astros-wise (reminder: If the Astros offer Pence arbitration, and he declines, and the Braves sign him in the off-season, the Astros get the Braves' pick. If the same scenario happens with, say, Brett Myers, the Astros get a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd round).

Hunter Pence: Type A
Wilton Lopez: Type A
Michael Bourn: Type B
Brett Myers: Type B
Wandy Rodriguez: Type B

Wilton Lopez could be activated tomorrow

Within the same notebook, we find that Wilton Lopez could be activated from the DL tomorrow.

Mills:
"He threw the ball really well. He's probably on target in the next few days to be able to be active. We'll see how he is after the icing and treatment and everything, but there's not reason to believe he won't be ready to go."

Should he be activated, the Astros will have a decision to make regarding the 25-Man roster. Jose Valdez is our guess as to who will rejoin the Pacific Coast League in the corresponding move.

Will Carroll, on Wilton Lopez

Just as we had hoped, baseball's Dr. House addressed Wilton Lopez' injury.

Lopez to DL

Brian McTaggart is tweeting that the Astros have placed Wilton Lopez on the DL, and called up Jose Valdez from OKC.

Imagine that! Wilton Lopez is going to get checked out!

Four days after Wilton Lopez was diagnosed with neuritis in his throwing elbow, and one day after we questioned whether or not he should be pitching with it, Wilton Lopez is going to get that elbow checked out.

Ed Wade:
"Hopefully it's nothing more than it was before, but it behooves us to take advantage of a really good medical team to find out."
-

Within McTaggart's piece, we also see that Hunter Pence is about ready to go medieval on the team after their first 13 games:
"It's not acceptable. We definitely have goals to get a lot better than where we are, and we've got to continue to learn from our defeats and build off what went wrong. We know we're a good team. We believe in ourselves and we have to go out here and continue to play. We're going to try to win today and move forward."

Plenty to ponder and discuss in McTaggart's Notebook

Brian McTaggart has a lot going on in his notebook. Stuff about baserunning, Mills and Francona, Chris Johnson's sister, and Downs' first start at 3B.

But two things that should be noted involve injuries:

-Alberto Arias will throw 20-25 pitches against hitters off a mound in Kissimmee today.

-Wilton Lopez apparently won't be limited by this, but he has been diagnosed with neuritis - a nerve irritation - in his right elbow.

Astros agree to deals with four

The Astros agreed to one-year deals with four players yesterday:

Jimmy Paredes: $414,000
Brian Bogusevic: $416,500
Enerio Del Rosario: $417,000
Wilton Lopez: $442,000