Friday Morning Hot Links

*Put in your time-off request now: the Astros and Yankees will play on ESPN at 12:05pm Central on Monday, April 4.

*Jeff Luhnow said that he talked to 12 teams yesterday.

*Dallas Keuchel finished 5th in the BBWAA AL MVP voting. Altuve finished 10th, while Correa got one 8th-place vote.

*Keuchel thanked Brent Strom and Craig Bjornson for refining his game.

*The Masked Marvel wrote up a sweeter farewell to Jonathan Villar than I did.

*The Astros learned a lesson with last year's Rule 5 draft - losing DeShields and Rollins - and are hoping to avoid a repeat. (As a reminder: here's What The Heck Bobby's 2015 Rule 5 primer).

*File this under Well Of Course, but the Astros have checked in on Phillies reliever Ken Giles. Giles came to Philly from Dallas in the Hole Camels trade. (Note: The previous sentence has been stricken because I did not follow the advice of an Internet Commenter and check my facts before I wreck my facts). Basically, if the guy looks decent in the 6th-9th innings, the Astros will have checked in on him.

Monday Morning Hot Links

Really nervous about this Rangers series, you guys... on to the links:

*Baseball Tonight asks "Are these guys for real?" which is the new "Houston, you have a problem"

*Richard Justice says the Astros themselves believe they're for real.

*Dallas Keuchel, on the 2015 Astros:
The whole tryout period is over. We're past that. We're on to the winning phase.

*Lookout Landing has 52 excellent notes about a 7-6 loss to the Astros.

*Quinton McCracken is going to Corpus for a few days.

*Evan Gattis says this is the most fun he's had on a team (remember it wasn't three weeks ago that Gattis was getting booed in Houston, so let's be grateful he has a short memory).

*George Springer discussed that outfield-assisted inning-ending double play in the 3rd inning.

*ESPN's Christina Kahrl looks at the Astros' power surge, and likes what she sees.

*Ken Rosenthal's video talks about the Astros' grooming of Carlos Correa.

From Astros County

*The Masked Marvel asks if the other four scrub AL West teams aren't just beating each other up.

*I looked at the last ten years of 18-7 teams (hint: there aren't many)

ESPN doesn't know who George Springer is

Via (APackard1) we get this excellent screen capture from the World Wide Leader...

To be fair, though...

What you need to know about the offense, in one graph

ESPN's Mark Simon tweeted a graph this morning that pretty much sums up the Astros' "offense" right now:

"WHAV" is the "hard-hit average." So the Astros fall solidly in the quadrant indicating that - when they're hitting the ball (which is not often) - they're not hitting it hard. If you have seen Games 2-15 this season, this graph represents Jack's complete lack of shock.

That said, there are some encouraging things to be found here. Amazingly, they are hitting the ball harder than the Mets, Padres, Cubs, Royals (who of course just swept the Astros). I wonder what would happen if you took out the Astros' 5HR game earlier this week. Also, this crap is just not sustainable, so hopefully it's a matter of time before balls* start falling in.

*May or may not be referring to genitals.

Astros come in 2nd in most underrated

These player polls, I just don't know about them. They're fun to read, but don't mean anything. Still, it's interesting to note that in ESPN The Magazine's player poll for the MLB Preview issue, the Astros managed to come in 2nd in "Most Underrated Team," behind the A's (though, how you underrate a team that won 96 games, won the AL West, and lost in five games to the Tigers is beyond me).

Unnamed NL Veteran:
The Astros are going to be bad again, but I was impressed by what I saw in spring training. They're bad, but they're not 100-loss bad. I think they will surprise some people. They're going in the right direction.

What does it mean? Nothing. But when you can throw out some Anonymous NL Veteran love, you gotta do it.

Pedro Gomez is a (redacted)

ESPN.com's Pedro Gomez - best known for his 21 Jump Streeting of Barry Bonds - made his ballot available to the public today.

My 2014 MLB HOF ballot: Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Fred McGriff, Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Frank Thomas, Alan Trammell
— Pedro Gomez (@pedrogomezESPN) January 6, 2014

 And then...

Actually, I don't. “@joshwolff22: @pedrogomezESPN You gotta explain Biggio being left off...”
— Pedro Gomez (@pedrogomezESPN) January 6, 2014

Followed by...

Anyone with a problem with HOF voting should contact the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. They're the ones who made and set the rules.
— Pedro Gomez (@pedrogomezESPN) January 6, 2014

Of course we bring attention to this because of the exclusion of Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell. But if you've followed the HOF voting for any length of time at all, you'll remember that Gomez has a hard-on for some Bagwell hate, as well as a history of presumably setting out the names of HOF-eligible players on the floor, watching his cat piss on four to five names, and then filling out his ballot accordingly. Don't believe me?

How do you explain Gomez being one of four BBWAA voters to vote for Bill Mueller in 2012? Or Gomez as one of the two voters who voted for Jay Bell in 2009?

So...yeah, this is the Hall of Fame's problem, not Pedro Gomez's...sure.

ESPN's Future Power Rankings index

So ESPN put out their Future Power Rankings index today (Insider-Only).

Teams are ranked by the quality of their current ML roster, quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system, the money they have to spend, value and stability of ownership/front office and coaching staff, and roster mobility.

Somehow with all the money in the world to spend* and one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Astros are ranked 22nd. Buster Olney says it'll be 2016 before Astros "sniff .500." This is likely because the quality of the current ML roster has the lowest rank among the 30 teams. But hey, 22nd is better than 30th.

*allegedly

Let's prove SportsCenter wrong

This morning, on the 6am SportsCenter that I watched because my daughter has forgotten how to sleep, they did something unconscionable:

They showed the box score from Friday night's 30-8 beatdown of Lancaster by High Desert and one noob anchor actually said:

If the minors are an indication of future success, it's only going to get worse for the Astros.

Then they showed the highlights from the Astros/Rangers game last night. Because that fits the ESPN narrative that the Astros are bad, won't get better, and it's generally funny for everybody else. F SportsCenter.

So how about some facts, rather than a cherry-picked box score? (Note: many of these stats come from the invaluable MLBFarm. Stats are valid through games on August 10.)

*At .576, the Astros have the highest organizational winning percentage in the minor leagues, better than the .560 Giants and .558 Rangers.
*At 391, the Astros have the most organizational wins in the minors, one ahead of the Mets, eight ahead of the Mariners, and 32 wins above the fourth-place Rays.
*At 520, the Astros' affiliates have hit the most organizational home runs. Oakland, with 519, is next. Seattle, at 514, is 3rd.

Oklahoma City

*At 69-52, the Triple-A Oklahoma City RedHawks are tied with the Salt Lake Bees for the best record in the Pacific Coast League, and are four games up on Albuquerque in the division. They are three wins short of their 2012 season total, with three weeks left in the season. They have already posted more wins in 2013 than they did in the entire 2007-2011 Triple-A affiliate seasons.
*OKC has the youngest batters in the League, at 24.7 years old, almost a full year younger than next-youngest Tacoma, at 25.4. Their pitching staff is the second-youngest in the League, at 25.2 years old. Memphis is the youngest, at 25.1 years old.
*George Springer is the first 30-30 player in the Minors since Grant Desme in 2009. He's 23 years old, and between Corpus and OKC is hitting .304/.411/.602 with 31 homers and 38 stolen bases. He has 12 HR in 173 PAs at OKC, and is hitting .317/.434/.648 in 41 games. That's the 3rd-highest OPS in the league.
*In the last month, Jon Singleton has 19 hits and 19 walks, for a .352 OBP.

Corpus

*At 72-47, Corpus is 25 games over .500 and has the best record in the Texas League. Their 72 wins are the 3rd-most in all of MiLB, as is their .605 Win%. With three weeks left in the season, the Hooks need nine wins to match their 2012 win total. They won 50 games in 2011.
*At 22.8 years old, the Hooks have the youngest batters in the league. They also have the highest OPS in the league, at .745, and their .414 SLG is 21 points higher than 2nd-best.
*At 23.4 years old, they also have the youngest pitching staff. At 2.6 BB/9, they have the best walk rate, as well.
*20-year old Domingo Santana is 6th in the league with 20 home runs.
*George Springer is still 4th in the league in stolen bases.
*Only two Texas League pitchers have thrown more than 60IP with a WHIP under 1.00: Jake Buchanan (0.93) and David Martinez (0.997). Both are now in Triple-A.
*In 86.1IP, Mike Foltynewicz has 85K, and has allowed just six home runs.

Lancaster

*At 69-50, the JetHawks have the best record in the California League, one game ahead of the San Jose Giants. In their own division, they're seven games better than 2nd place Inland Empire.
*They, as well as Modesto and Lake Elsinore, have the 2nd-youngest batters in the League, at 22.4 years old.
*The JetHawks have scored 840 runs, 156 more than their nearest competitor. They have the league-lead in hits by 86, doubles by 19, and are 2nd in team home runs. Their .864 OPS is 68 points higher than 2nd-place High Desert.
*They have the lowest strikeout total by 57 strikeouts (369 fewer strikeouts than league-worst Modesto). Lancaster also has the most walks in the League, by 134 (and have drawn 236 more walks than league-worst Bakersfield.)
*The pitching staff averages 22.9 years old, next-youngest in the League after High Desert at 22.6 years old.
*They have the highest ERA in the League, thanks to the elevation, but have the 4th-best K:BB ratio, at 2.68.
*Four of the top ten California League batters in OBP are Lancaster players: Nolan Fontana (5th), Joe Sclafani (6th), Brandon Meredith (9th) and MP Cokinos (10th). All have OBPs over .400.

Quad Cities

*At 67-49, the River Bandits - in their first season as an Astros affiliate - are four games behind Cedar Rapids for 1st place in the Western Division, but they have the 3rd-highest winning percentage in the League.
*Last year, under the Cardinals affiliation, the River Bandits were 68-71.
*With 493 walks, the River Bandits have the highest walk total in the League, by 31 walks. Their .338 OBP is third-best in the league.
*The pitching staff has the 4th-highest strikeout total (35 behind league-leading Great Lakes), and the 2nd-lowest walk total, at 333 - 10 walks behind Peoria for league-best.
*Their 2.9 BB/9 ratio is tied with Peoria for the lowest in the league, while the 8.1 K/9 is 3rd-best in the League.
*Carlos Correa, at 18 years old, is hitting .327/.409/.480 in a league where the average hitter is 21.3 years old. His .327 average is the 4th-best in the league, and the best among players with over 300 PAs. His .889 OPS is highest among players with more than 300 PAs.
*Correa and Teoscar Hermandez are 11th and 12th, respectively, in total bases.
*Vincent Velasquez and Lance McCullers have 123 and 115 strikeouts, respectively. This is good enough for 1st and 2nd in the Midwest League.
*Gera Sanchez, Lance McCullers, and Vincent Velasquez rank 8th-10th in K/9 ratio. Mitchell Lambson is 14th.
*In five starts (19.2IP), Mark Appel has allowed 15H/5ER, 16K:6BB for a 2.29 ERA/1.07 WHIP.
*In 83.1IP, Mike Hauschild (now at Lancaster), allowed one home run.

Tri-City

*The ValleyCats, at 31-22, have the 2nd-best record in the New York-Penn League, and are leading their division by 1.5 games.
*ValleyCat batters have 327 strikeouts, three more than league-leading Batavia. They are also tied with Vermont for the 2nd-highest number of walks. They're also scoring the 3rd-highest runs/game.
*In 462IP, the pitching staff has issued just 90 walks, best in the league, and 100 fewer walks than league-worst Auburn. Their 1.8 BB/9 is 1.2 walks less than League-Average.
*They also have the 3rd-highest strikeout total. As a team, their K:BB ratio is 4.52 - 1.43 better than 2nd-best Lowell.
*Before getting called up to Quad Cities, Dan Gulbransen was leading the league in BA (.397) and SLG (.638).
*Mike Martinez's seven HR are tied for 3rd-best in the League. Conrad Gregor's 55 hits are 6th in the league, four behind the League leader.
*Pitcher Zach Morton has allowed 17 hits and seven walks in 32.2IP for a 0.74 WHIP - 7th-best in the League, and best among pitchers who have thrown 30+ IP.
*Richard Rodriguez, Tanner Bushue, and Michael Feliz also have a WHIP under 1.00.
*Chris Cotton (21K:2BB) and Richard Rodriguez (20K:2BB) are two of the six pitchers in the league with a K:BB ratio over 10.00

Greeneville

*At 32-16, the Greeneville Astros are a game behind Bluefield for the best record in the Appalachian League, and they're leading the division by four games.
*They have already won more games than the team did in 2007-11 seasons. The 2007 Greeneville Astros won 17 of 68 games, the 2013 Astros won 13 games in a row between July 11-25.
*Their 206 walks lead the league by 27, and they have the fewest strikeouts (318) by 15.
*Staff ERA, at 2.80, is the best in the League. They have the most strikeouts, 3rd-fewest walks issued, lowest WHIP (1.14), and the best K:BB ratio, at 3.13.
*Chris Munnelly (0.84) and Frederick Tiburcio (1.26) are both in the Top 10 in League ERA. Munnelly has the League's 2nd-lowest WHIP, at 0.56.
*Chris Lee is 4th in strikeouts, with 47 in 39IP.
*Only four pitchers have thrown 10+ IP and have BB/9 rates under 1.0. Raul Rivera is one of those pitchers, walking one of the 42 batters he has faced.
*Tyler Brunnemann has the 7th-highest K/9 ratio, at 13.0, while Raul Rivera's 13.00 K:BB ratio is 2nd-best in the league.

That's far enough, I think. Of the six teams highlighted here (I didn't get into the GCL or the VSL), three have the best record in their league, two more are 2nd in the league. The Hooks have the 3rd-highest winning percentage of all minor-league teams. Five of the six teams are leading their division.

That 30-8 game from Friday night fit ESPN's narrative of "TEH ASTORS R BAD HAR HAR HAR." Too bad they didn't get some statistics before making their funny, funny little joke.

Grapefruit League Bus Tour won't include Kissimmee

Get used to this, Astros fans. Baseball Tonight posted its Spring Training Bus Tour schedule of both the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues.... and this won't include a stop in Kissimmee to the Astros (there are also nine other teams who won't get to be part of the Camp Report segment).

Once ESPN departs Minute Maid Park after the Dallas/Houston game on March 31, I bet we'll never see them again.

ESPN: Minute Maid has crap baseball, but good music

So here's the lede from this ESPN article about the Astros DJ, Nunee Oakes:
Let's be clear: Minute Maid Park is not a good place to catch a first-class baseball game and hasn't been for some time, dating back to ‘05 when the Astros won the National League championship. Coming off one of the worst seasons in Major League Baseball in which the Astros posted a franchise-worst 56-106 record, they aren't providing much enjoyment.

Well, ahem, okay. Anyway, there are stories about Brad Ausmus throwing a ball at the booth to change the music, and Jose Lima getting pissed because Oakes didn't play the right song. So read it, I suppose. Or don't.

Astros on the ESPN Top 500

ESPN ranked the Top 500 players in Major League Baseball. Here are the Astros represented:

#166: Wandy Rodriguez
#314: Brett Myers
#323: Bud Norris
#326: Carlos Lee
#398: Jed Lowrie
#432: Jose Altuve
#500: J.D. Martinez

"Don't even hope," says ESPN

Jim Bowden, Keith Law, and Buster Olney took a look (Insider-Only) at the Future Power Rankings, based on five categories:

MAJORS (full weight): Quality of current big league roster
MINORS (full weight): Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system
FINANCE (2/3 weight): How much money do they have to spend?
MANAGEMENT (2/3 weight): Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff
MOBILITY (1/3 weight): Do they have a lot of young, cheap players, or old immovable guys?

How do the Astros shake out? 29th - ahead of only the Orioles. Here was their breakdown:

Majors: 1 (presumably 0 is the lowest score)
Minors: 8
Finances: 9
Management: 10
Mobility: 14

Olney:
The slate is clean for Crane and Luhnow to build a new Houston tradition, which will probably take years.

So there you have it! If you have any hope at all, you are an idiot. Apparently.

David Schoenfield's NL Central position rankings

ESPN Sweet Spot Network Leader David Schoenfield posted his rankings, by position, for the NL Central. Click the link for the full read, but here's where the Astros rank:

Quintero/Castro - 6th (Doesn't matter who it is - they're the worst catcher in the division, apparently)
Lee - 3rd
Altuve - 4th
Paredes - 6th
Lowrie - 5th
Martinez - 4th
Schafer - 6th
Bogusevic - 6th
Myers (as SP1) - 5th
Wandy - 4th
Norris - 2nd
Happ - 6th
Lyles/Sosa - 4th
Lyon - 6th
Bullpen - 6th
Intangibles - 6th

Interesting. Especially on the last one, where the things that you cannot quantify have been quantified, and the Astros had less things that one cannot figure out than any other team.

Mills' seat is hot!

ESPN's Rumor Central (Insider-Only) says that the hottest managerial seat in baseball belongs to none other than Brad Mills.

The hottest seat belongs to Brad Mills, who has presided over the first 100-loss season in Houston Astros history. His contract is up at the end of the season and the Astros' ownership group, which is still Drayton McLane at this point, show little inclination of exercising an option for 2012.

I bet Brad Mills would be on his way to Boston before the press conference was over, should this happen. But that's the question: should the Astros fire Brad Mills? This is not the team Mills took over in 2009. You could make a case that he has had to play with a pretty crap hand. You could also make the case that he's made some seriously questionable decisions (such as seemingly murdering the career of Brett Wallace) with that crap hand. It's something we'll take into consideration, but if Mills goes, Ed Wade deserves some of the blame for making Mills play these cards.

Looking far ahead, MLB lists three other managers on the hot seat: Ozzie Guillen, Mike Quade, and Bob Melvin. Bob Melvin interviewed for the managerial position the last time around, but could be on his way to Chicago if buddy Brad Pitt Billy Beane becomes the new Cubs GM.

Sigh. Why the hell not make a season of uncertainty more uncertain?

UPDATE: WAIT A SECOND. The Astros exercised Mills' 2012 option last October, and added an option for 2013. So, suck it, ESPN.

UPDATED UPDATE: ESPN updated their post, saying:
Ken Davidoff had Mills on his list of managers on the hot seat in Sunday's Newsday, and we agree. While the Astros previously picked up Mills' 2012 option and added an option for 2013 (correcting what we said earlier this morning), his future has to be up in the air given the pending sale of the franchise to Jim Crane.

ESPN wonders if Lyles will be up soon

It's an Insider-only note from Jason Churchill, but he has an incredibly vague/short post on Jordan Lyles. There are no questions answered. He just notes Lyles had a good start his last time out, and that Nelson Figueroa kind of sucks, and Happ has struggled. So, really, you don't need to read this.

I don't put Happ in the same boat as Figueroa. I still don't think Happ is healthy. But it begs a larger question: How much of a leash will you give Figueroa? If he craps the bed tonight, how loudly will you yell to make a change?

This is the day that ESPN goes off on the Astros

First, Justin Ray talks about the starters:

The Houston Astros had one of the worst offenses in baseball last season, scoring just 3.8 runs per game en route to a fourth place finish in the NL Central. So just imagine how bad they would have been without a pitching staff that ranked sixth in the National League in ERA and opponent batting average after the All-Star Break.

And Jay Jaffe in an (Insider-Only) article blasts the offense. Here's your close:
It's not as though the Disastros can wait for the minor league cavalry to ride to the rescue, as none of their top hitting prospects have played above High-A ball. No matter how good that rotation is, it's going to be a rough, low-scoring year for Astros fans.

Jerry Crasnick has a rather complimentary article on the Astros' pitchers. And we learn that Wesley Wright is about to be a sidearm.

While we don't necessarily care for his tone, the Common Man is right

Over on the ESPN's Sweet Spot Network, The Common Man takes a gander at the Astros' pursuit of another catcher.

The Astros are terrible. According to Dan Szymborski’s projections, they have just two hitters and two pitchers capable of being above average. Baseball Prospectus thinks they’ll be worse than the Pirates. This is a team with absolutely no chance of going anywhere in 2011. Ninety-plus losses is a virtual certainty. That’s going to happen whether Houston picks up Jesus Flores, or Ryan Doumit, or even if they manage to kidnap Joe Mauer. They can’t actually think they’re going anywhere, can they? If they do, well, they could be poised to make themselves even worse in the long run...

...Really, the only smart play for the Astros is to sit on their hands. If they get worse, they improve their draft spot, which would allow them to take some truly talented players in 2012. If Towles finds the talent that once made him a prospect, he can be dealt to a team desperate for catching help and bring in talent that way. There is simply no upside to expending resources to win a game or two more this year.

Like we said, we don't appreciate the insolence, but we agree.

G1: Astros @ Phillies to be televised

Brian McTaggart has a friendly tip that G1: Astros @ Phillies will be televised on April 1 at 12pm. It's your first chance to see Halladay throw a no-hitter in 2011!

ESPN Ballot looks shaky for Bagwell

Credit Zach Levine with the link first, but ESPN asked 18 of their BBWAA voting members to show their ballot.

Bagwell got eight of the 18 votes with: Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Gordon Edes, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney, Brendan Roberts, Adam Rubin, and Jayson Stark voting for him.

ESPN has jokes

It's not even Christmas, and ESPN is already running (Insider-Only) articles about how the Astros might as well not even bother in 2011.

You see, it's a ZiPS projection of the NL Central, and they only take into account the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds.

But not without some snark:
Houston has so many holes that they should start selling Astros-imprinted colanders.