*Forrest Whitley talked about reporting to camp at 230 pounds, up 40 from the 190 at which he showed up in 2019. Whitley: I was just so skinny that by the time the season would reach like June or July, I wasn't ready. That showed in 2018; I got hurt quite a little bit....I think just the general thought process that went into that was just not coming into camp absurdly skinny like I had the past couple years. I remember a couple years ago I came into camp at like 190, so I wanted to lower the workload, eat a little bit more, and focus on coming into camp at a little better weight.
I'm sitting at about 235, down five since the beginning of the month. Of course, I'm like 5'11" so
*Jim Crane told James Click he can have more money if he needs it. Click: I know where our payroll is relative to the CBT line. (Crane) just shot it down and was like, 'We're over it, that's fine because we're going to win, and if you need more for us to win, I'll get you more.
Spotrac has the Astros' payroll at $214m to $231m. The line in which you pay the tax in 2020 is $208m, with a further penalty if you go over $228m. $37.3m is coming off the books after the season when Brantley ($16m), Reddick ($13m), and Gurriel ($8.3m) become free agents, with the possibility of a further reduction should the Astros not re-sign George Springer ($21m in 2020). I love savings. Love it when my favorite team has coupons. Getting a jersey embroidered with "Savings" on the back.
*Rob Manfred, on punishing the Astros' players themselves: Look, it's impossible, given the facts that we found - and, frankly, the statements of the Astros' players since the decision came out - to escape the fact that, independent of what the GM did, the manager did, (the players) had an obligation to play by the rules, and they didn't do it. I understand when people say, 'The players should have been punished.' I understand why people feel that way, because they did not do the right thing...If I was in a world where I could have found all the facts, without granting immunity, I would have done that.
Manfred says throwing at Astros' hitters is "dangerous, and not helpful to the current situation."
Manfred, on the use of buzzers in 2019: Can I tell you 100 percent certain that it didn't happen? No. You can never know that. People tell you what they tell you. I will tell you, the evidence on this issue was as consistent in the direction that nothing was going on as the evidence was consistent in the direction that there was inappropriate behavior in (2017 and 2018).
So stay with me here: The part of the quote that, and this is shocking I know, people are keying in on is the first part, where Manfred says he can't be 100% certain the Astros weren't wearing buzzers in 2019. But he goes on to say, if you take the time to read the whole quote, that the evidence was as consistent for them not wearing buzzers as it was consistent that they did shady crap in 2017 and 2018. In other words, Manfred's investigation probably got that right, since the Astros themselves are coming out and admitting it.
It is incredibly shocking to me that people are running to Jomboy's defense and taking what he throws against the wall as gospel, while ignoring evidence to the contrary. I can't quite put my finger on a parallel in society where people believe the guy they like is telling them the truth in the face of evidence to the contrary, and vilifying the people who provide said contrary evidence. It's right on the tip of my tongue. I'll figure it out, I guess, after a little more coffee.
Anyway, here's where the buzzer theory originated: Reddit user meme-engineer on October 24: I had a dream a couple weeks back when the Astros were playing the Rays, it was that after the post season finished a news story came out that the Astros had a team of people deciphering signs with cameras and then that team relayed the signal to transponders that were worn in the cleats of the top (trusted not to snitch) Astros players, the transponders would vibrate according to what pitch was coming (example: once for fastball, twice for off-speed). But it was just a dream haha. That wouldn't happen.
*Say, what's happening with Mike Fiers: Sunday, The Chronicle asked Fiers, the public whistleblower in the Astros' cheating scandal, if he'd like to respond to Correa's prompting, and Fiers politely declined comment. Then, before walking away, Fiers added, 'We did it as a team.' *The A's had filed a formal complaint to MLB about the Astros before Fiers' allegations were revealed in The Athletic, and nothing was done.
*Yu Darvish says the Astros should lose their title. Darvish: It's like the Olympics. When a player cheats, you can't have a gold medal, right? But they still have a World Series title. It feels weird.
Darvish threw 3.1IP in the 2017 World Series in two starts - Game 3 in Houston and Game 7 in Los Angeles - and allowed 9H/9R (8ER), 0K:2BB, 2HR, and threw 61 of his 96 pitches for strikes.
*Chris Sale: Yeah, it sucks. But what am I going to do? Am I going to hold them at gunpoint? Am I going to sit here and curse them out through a bunch of cameras? If I have something to say to them, I know those guys. I can get one of their numbers and text them and talk to them face-to-face or whatever. It happened. What are you going to do about it? You can sit around and cry about it or I can get my ass to work and try and win a championship.
*GM James Click says the focus is on rebuilding trust: Every Astros employee, every single one of us, is absolutely committed to making sure that that kind of thing never happens here again. That's our focus. There will be absolutely zero tolerance, no tolerance whatsoever, for that kind of behavior in the Houston Astros organization ever again. And furthermore, that would be the case whether there had been an investigation or not. Any organization that I'm a part of would be absolutely 100 percent in compliance with the rules. There'll be no question about that.
*Yahoo's Tim Brown: The Astros should stop apologizing and go full heel.
*Will Harris is "in a tough spot" in Washington. Harris: Oh, man. They're obviously my friends, and guys that I consider family, guys I will have a relationship with the rest of my life, hopefully. And now watching them go through this...
*MLB will restrict access to video during games. Dugout phone calls will be recorded. Bo Bichette, on technology in the games: In a way it would be dumb to not take advantage of what we have, but at the same time I think that...personally I'd be fine if there was no technology in there whatsoever. I mean they did it back in the day, why can't we do it now? So I'm sure part of the reason (the Astros) did what they did, it is because of how easy the access was to it. And for me, I'd have no problem taking every bit of it away.
Not much happening, and the last few days have been pretty crazy for me, personally. So let's just round up what we've learned. If something happens that warrants a post, I'll be back. If not, I hope you have a Merry Christmas and, if you're traveling, you make it to your destination safely. Best wishes to you and your families.
*Roster Resource says the Astros' 2020 payroll is right about $237m. Players (and their salaries) coming off the books - as of right now - after this season:
George Springer ($21.4m based on arbitration projections)
Michael Brantley ($16m)
Josh Reddick ($13m)
Yuli Gurriel ($8.3m)
Brad Peacock ($4.6m)
*The White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel to a 3yr/$55.5m deal, with a vesting option for a 4th year. This offseason the White Sox have acquired Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Nomar Mazara, and James McCann.
*The MLB Umpires Association has agreed to a 5-year labor contract, part of which Teh Umpires have agreed to cooperate with a test of an automated strike zone.
Well there's some movement on a lot of fronts. Let's try to run it all down.
*Chandler Rome writes that the Astros' moves in July are impacting their December. Hinch: We're trying to be just as creative and just as aggressive at the needs that we have, but you've got to find a dance partner if you're going to make a trade. You've got to find a free agent that's ready to sign. You've got to evaluate your own talent to see who can fill from within.
Luhnow: I can't comment on what our budget is, and that number is something that Jim and I discussed. We're clearly going to be in territory that we've never been in before. But we feel like with the resources available to us, we can accomplish the goals we need to accomplish. Any bigger moves would require some sort of trade to free up the payroll space. But those are things that are also part of our consideration.
*Jim Crane is confident in the Astros' nucleus. Crane: I think anybody can do the math on where we're at. We've got a few holes. We need to sign a catcher, need a few arms - bullpen, maybe a starter. When you look at those ingredients and look at where we're at, more than likely that will put us over the luxury tax.
This would be the first time the Astros have been over $208m - the cutoff for the financial penalty, which would be a 20% tax from $208m-$228m, and a 32% tax from $228m-$248m.
*Ken Rosenthal reports from "sources" that the Astros have considered trading Carlos Correa. Rosenthal: No deal appears close, and the timing might not be right for such a move, considering that most teams are set at shortstop and Correa's trade value is down. But at some point, the Astros will need to make difficult decisions, and Correa might be the odd man out...A trade of Correa might help the Astros address their pitching shortage at a time when they want to sign center fielder George Springer to a long-term deal, sources said.
Let's be clear: the Astros have parameters in place to trade you and I, and the mustache guy, and every single player, should the conversation come up. That the Astros "have considered" trading Correa means absolutely nothing, other than that they have contingency plans on contingency plans.
That said, thesedudes are saying that there is framework in place for a Correa (and possibly Reddick) swap with the Reds for Luis Castilo.
*Chandler Rome has a story on the most uncomfortable 19 minutes of the Winter Meetings - A.J. Hinch's press conference regarding the sign-stealing scandal. Hinch: If I was in your shoes, I would be on the other side of this table, and I would want to ask questions and find answer and get some more information on the investigation and all the allegations and things like that. I know you're probably expecting this, but I can't comment on it. Hinch promised to talk about it...one day.
Related, Yahoo's Tim Brown: Mike Fiers - hero or snitch? He interviewed some people: "Heroic," said one current American League West player. "Takes big nuts to call bull-- on people and stand there and take the heat that follows. I admire that. "Freakin' punk-ass bitch," said a former Astro. "Mike Fiers?" said a current Astro. "Then give back your ring and your World Series share.
In just two seasons, Gerrit Cole left his mark on the Astros' record books. He's 19th all-time in franchise history in fWAR (13.4). He has the highest K/9 among any Astros pitcher in a career (13.13) as well as the highest K/9 in a single season (13.81 in 2019), the 4th-lowest ERA for a starter (2.68), 3rd-lowest FIP for a starter (2.67). Cole is one of four Astros pitchers to strike out 300 batters in a season. He set the Astros' single-season strikeout record in 2019, with 326. Cole is one of ten Astros pitchers to record 20 wins. Hinch, on Tuesday prior to Cole signing with the Yankees: I had a very heartfelt conversation with him following Game 7 of the World Series. I'll cherish his words that he said to me whether he returns to our team or whether he goes on, but those are some big checks being talked about around the league, and I'm not writing them.
We were truly blessed to watch Gerrit Cole pitch in Houston for two seasons and I'll never understand how he didn't get a ring. Cole was eight outs away from winning a ring (in the bullpen) in 2019 and apparently getting those final eight outs was what sent him to New York. A friend told him, "When your primary goal is to win a championship, it doesn't matter where you sleep." Andy Pettitte was instrumental in Gerrit Cole signing with the Yankees.
ESPN's Alden Gonzalez: What will the Angels do now after losing out on Cole? Well, I'm not sure, but I'm guessing the answer is "Waste the prime of Mike Trout's career."
*Just about the only Astros news of the day was another report from The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich (again, get used to this) in which the headline reads: Astros executive asked scouts for help stealing signs and suggested using cameras, email shows.
That's a damning headline! I wonder what the article says!
Well, the email is from August 2017. The sender and recipients are unidentified. The email:
One thing in specific we are looking for is picking up signs coming out of the dugout. What we are looking for is how much we can see, how we would log things, if we need cameras/binoculars, etc. So go to game, see what you can (or can't) do and report back your findings.
Well that doesn't seem as bad, if you're willing to read past the headline. The unnamed executive sent an email asking if they could pick up signs coming out of the dugout whether through cameras (not okay) or binoculars (Extreme Grey Area). The "see what you can (or can't) do" portion is the kicker for me. Obviously I'm on record as being Against Cheating. But if you're wondering how to pick up signs and the sender says "see what you can (or can't) do" that's hardly a directive to commit Baseball Fraud.
Scouts discussed sign stealing with the executive outside of email as well, on phone calls and in a group Slack channel. Multiple Astros scouts said they were appalled by the possibility they would be asked to use a camera - and said that some scouts indeed voiced as much to management...
..."Nobody wanted to do that, and take a chance of getting caught and ruining their reputation, not only as a scout but then ever further damage what the Astros had going," one person directly involved in the conversations said...
...A longtime scout outside of the Astros organization said that, across the sport, asking advance scouts to attempt to track signs is not uncommon. A general manager confirmed the same. But the potential use of a camera stood out to both.
Keith Law tweeted that the email was "a third-rate burglary attempt."
ESPN's Jeff Passan has the story, as well, if you want the unpaywalled version. He notes that the email was sent by Kevin Goldstein, special assistant to GM Jeff Luhnow. Passan:
The 2017 plans relayed by Goldstein involved a pro scouting department that has since been gutted, with the Astros' analytics-scouting balance since then tilting to the side of analytics "99 to 1," according to a person familiar with the team's resources. Much of the Astros' scouting work today, sources said, involves cameras and video.
The New York Post's Ken Davidoff looks for comparisons to the Patriots and their many scandals as Rob Manfred figures out what to do with the Astros. Davidoff:
Most obviously, Houston's manager A.J. Hinch and president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow should be suspended for lengthy periods - half a season, at least - if a preponderance of evidence suggests that they knew what was going down.
SNY's Andy Martino: What MLB needs to learn, and how it could still get Carlos Beltran suspended.
I guess the point of articles like this is to further build the case against the Astros and the front office regarding a "culture" of cheating. It's going to be a long offseason.
*ESPN has an AL West Offseason Preview for your pleasure. Houston's offseason preview focuses on payroll, which is projected to be almost $229m - or about $21m over the luxury tax - for 2020, and that's before you get into Gerrit Cole discussions.
Working on a post for tomorrow of reflections of the 2019 season a week after it ended. Until then:
*Jake Kaplan: This winter might be Jeff Luhnow's biggest challenge yet.
*Brian McTaggart has a notebook in which:
-Jim Crane is ready to "make a run" at Gerrit Cole, who received a qualifying offer. This means that, if he signs with another team, the Astros will get a compensatory pick (possibly off-setting the loss of a pick if the Astros sign a player who received a qualifying offer). Luhnow: We're probably over the line [the so-called Luxury Tax] at this point without any added additions. Fortunately, Jim's been really open to different investment ideas depending on how we justify it and how it helps our team. At the end of the day, we're not going to know our payroll until we start next year. There's going to be opportunities to improve the team. In this video, Crane said "it's a possibility" to go over the luxury tax. -Hitting coach Alex Cintron will manage Gigantes de Carolina in the Puerto Rican Winter League.
*Well now we know: The Astros will start a five-game series at home tomorrow against Florida Men at [giggles] 1pm. The A's have the longest winner-take-all postseason game losing streak, at nine games. Six of those were at home.
More of this to come tomorrow, but an early analysis of Sarasota vs. Houston:
-The Rays won four out of seven games against Houston in 2019.
-The Astros outscored the Rays 40-27 in 2019.
-Tampa won three of those four games to open the 2019 season.
-The Astros scored nine runs in those four games, and scored four runs in the last three games of that opening series combined.
-The second HOU/TBR series was Aug 27-29. Houston won 15-1, won 8-6, and lost 9-8.
-The Astros are 5-12 at Tropicana Field since the beginning of the 2015 season. They're 2-6 at West Lakeland in 2018-2019.
*There's a playoff rally today at City Hall in Houston at 10am. It's free. Reid Ryan, Jeff Luhnow, Chris Devenski, and Josh Reddick, and the Alien will be there.
*The Astros are set to open the ALDS with Verlander-Cole-Greinke. Hinch: Not really news breaking when it comes to those three. I'm sure everybody could have predicted how we were going to go, and I wasn't going to commit to a Game 4 quite yet. All those guys are prepared and ready to go.
As for Correa, Hinch: He looks great and is moving around in normal fashion, and I expect him to play on Friday.
Also: Framber, Cionel, Cy Sneed, and Joe Biagini were sent home. Biagini will remain on a throwing program in case he is needed in a later series.
It's worth mentioning, for the first note, that Verlander-Cole-Greinke lined up in the rotation seven times for 21 games, beginning on August 21. The Astros went 17-4 with those three, playing against Detroit, Anaheim, Tampa, Toronto, Milwaukee, Seattle, Oakland, Kansas City, Arlington, Anaheim, and Seattle
Looks like it'll be:
G1: Verlander v Glasnow
G2: Cole v Snell
G3: Greinke v Morton
*Chandler Rome has a good story on the relationship between Justin Verlander and Robinson Chirinos, the first personal catcher he has ever had. Hinch, on Chirinos: He's going to be the calm one in the moment, maybe even the more reasonable one in the moment. That Midas touch he has, to be the calmest heartbeat, is very valuable to me.
*Zack Greinke threw four simulated innings in the bullpen today to stay fresh in the 11 days from his last start of the regular season to ALDS G3.
*Bregman admitted he gets "jittery" in the few days after the regular season and before the playoffs start, but "I'd rather take batting practice...and wait three days than play in that Wild Card game."
*Hinch: Just things that add to a culture of playing 162 games you can't fake, you can't pretend. It's part of your DNA or not. [Bregman's] as authentic a baseball player as I've ever been around and as likable as anybody on our team. The other side probably feels a little differently. He plays with a little chip on his shoulder that irritates some people. I love that about him, and he owns it and doesn't run from it.
*Jim Crane said he'd like to re-sign Gerrit Cole, but the Unofficial Luxury Tax will be an issue. Crane: We'll see where we end up after the year. We may make a run at it. We're not sure yet. We're going to wait and see what else unfolds and who else is going to stay on the team. There's a lot of moves that Jeff will probably make in the offseason. We're going to keep a very close eye on it, communicate and see where that ends up. He's had a great year. He's young and he's likely going to command a big salary.
Yes, that's all true. But it's true because Gerrit Cole is the best option right now if you need a pitcher and heywhaddayaknow the Astros will need a pitcher. Feel free to play around with Spotrac if you want to see how the numbers work out. If the Astros go over $208m in 2020, they would pay a 20% tax on the overage. So let's say the Astros hit $215m on payroll in 2020, that's a $1.4m penalty the Astros have to pay in order to win another 106+ games.
*Braves manager Brian Snitker, on picking Dallas Keuchel to start NLDS G1 against St. Louis: It's why we got him. He brought instant credibility. He's been through this war. He's a World Series champion. And I think when we signed him, we envisioned him making this opening start.
*Baseball Watching Today:
-St. Louis at Atlanta: 4:02pm Central
-Washington at Los Angeles: 7:37pm Cental
I have always been happy to spend Jim Crane's money. And let's not forget this: The Astros said they would spend when the time was right. The organization has been honest with fans throughout this entire process, from Erik Bedard being the highest-paid player on the 2013 Astros (at $1.15m) to...this. Anyhow, here's how payroll shakes out over the next few years:
Player
2020
2021
2022
2023
Justin Verlander
$33.0m
$33.0m
FA
-
Jose Altuve
$29.0m
$29.0m
$29.0m
$29.0m
Zack Greinke
~$22.0m
~$22.0m
FA
-
Michael Brantley
$16.0m
FA
-
-
Alex Bregman
$13.0m
$13.0m
$13.0m
$30.5m
Josh Reddick
$13.0m
FA
-
-
Ryan Pressly
$8.75m
$8.75m
FA
-
Yuli Gurriel
$8.4m
ARB
ARB
FA
Total
$143.15m
$83.75m
$42.0m
$59.5m
Arbitration-Eligible after 2019: George Springer, Roberto Osuna, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Aledmys Diaz, Brad Peacock, Jake Marisnick, Chris Devenski. 2019 Salary: $36.44m.
Free Agents after 2019: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon, Collin McHugh, Robinson Chirinos, Wade Miley, Will Harris. 2019 Salary: $46.27m
B-Ref Post-2019 Payroll Estimate: $171.2m
2020 Payroll Notes: The Astros are going to pay significantly for Springer's last arbitration year. Osuna will get a raise, as will Correa, Diaz, Peacock, and Marisnick. Those arbitration guys might match, or slightly exceed, the amount of money cleared by free agent departures. I don't see anyone just getting non-tendered from that arbitration list. Who do the Astros try to keep from the Free Agent list? Gerrit Cole, sure. Miley, maybe. Harris, I'm okay with that.
Arbitration-Eligible after 2020: Yuli Gurriel, Chris Devenski, Roberto Osuna, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Aledmys Diaz.
Free Agents after 2020: Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, George Springer, Brad Peacock, Jake Marisnick. 2020 Salary: $29m, but we don't know what Springer/Peacock/Marisnick will make in arbitration.
Post-2020 B-Ref Salary Estimate: $142.8m
2021: It's hard to project too far out what the Astros will do with future trades, extensions, free agents, etc. So I'll just give you the Post-2021 B-Ref Salary Estimate: $128.7m.
2022: Same. $124.1m.
2023: Same. $119.8m.
If the Astros are trying to stay under $200m, there are ways they can do that. Extending Springer AND Cole is not necessarily out of the question.
*Big News of the Day was that Alex Bregman was decidedly unimpressed with the $41,500 raise he got after posting a historic year in 2018. Bregman: I'm just disappointed and I feel like I outperformed [his 2018 salary]. I understand that it's a business, but I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever. I'm just disappointed it doesn't seem like the same amount of want.
There are A LOT of similes to unpack here, none of them good.
According to FanGraphs, Bregman's value to the Astros was $60.9m of WAR. That's a lot of fWAR for not a lot of actual money, ratio-wise. I get called a Commie Pinko Bastard (or something along those lines) for wanting players to get paid their fair value, but Bregman has to understand Baseball Economics here. If the Astros paid everyone their statistical worth, tickets would start at Eleventy Jillion Dollars, so the team could continue making that profit.
Let's actually take a look at how much the Astros players provided to the team in terms of value, via FanGraphs (I'm not putting links to each of these, just trust that in over 10 years of doing this, I have literally never lied to any of you):
Alex Bregman: $60.9m
Justin Verlander: $54.4m
Gerrit Cole: $50.1m
Jose Altuve: $39.2m
Dallas Keuchel: $28.7m
Charlie Morton: $24.9m
George Springer: $23.5m
Lance McCullers: $19.9m
Carlos Correa: $13.2m
Marwin Gonzalez: $12.6m
Tyler White: $11.9m
Collin McHugh: $11.4m
Hector Rondon: $10.7m
Max Stassi: $9.5m
Yuli Gurriel: $9.4m
Josh Reddick: $9.1m
You can do the math on what this totals up combined with their actual salaries, but the value far outweighs these dudes' salaries. That's how a baseball team is good and actually turns a profit. I don't like it, and I think Bregman is correct, but I don't know what an acceptable salary would be. Did he want $800,000 and the Astros just decided to give him $600,000+? This kind of response from Bregman is a stupid thing to elicit over this theoretical $200,000. There are too many unknowns here to be able to reach some sort of educated conclusion about what's actually going on.
Worth mentioning, Luhnow: I know it's not satisfying because he's a great player and no player is ever satisfied the year before they reach arbitration with the amount the club gives them. That's just the nature of our industry right now. That's the world we operate in, and next year when he reaches arbitration, he's going to begin to get paid at the level he deserves. Notice how Luhnow acknowledges the imbalance between player salaries prior to arbitration. This is what was negotiated in the CBA, though, so it's how it is. Is it fair? Hell no. Is a team going to extract the absolute most value they can out of their players before they hit arbitration and, ultimately, free agency? 100% yes. The system is flawed, the system is not fair, the system cannot be changed right now.
Good morning. This is the last Sunday without baseball in some form until October. God bless us, everyone.
*2018 Teams with 5.0+ fWAR position players:
2: Boston
2: Anaheim
2: Cleveland
2: Milwaukee
2: Colorado
1: Houston, Oakland, Washington, Atlanta, Kansas City, Arizona, Chicago Cubs.
Could the Astros have three 5.0+ fWAR position players?
*Alex Bregman is progressing from elbow surgery, having already taken care of hitting and fielding, he's now throwing the ball 90+ feet.
Elsewhere in that link, the coaching staff is doing team-building exercises and ropes courses and various icebreakers.
*Carlos Correa is feeling healthy for the first time in a while. Correa: I learned so many things from my injury last year, and this year my main focus is I already showed up ready in Spring Training...I feel like I overdid it in Spring Training, so this year I'm going to be smarter about that...work smart and not just hard all the time. *Brian T. Smith: Michael Brantley deepens an already deep lineup.
*Detroit Free-Press: Here's how Justin Verlander plans to pitch until he's 45. Verlander: You can start making adjustments now to prepare. The steps I've gone through the last four, five years to transform my body and get back to being healthy, (those) are going to allow me to, knock on wood, stay healthy and thrive late in my 30s, early 40s.
Peep this quote from Luhnow: Our payroll has been going up, it's going to continue to go up. There's room in there to have several well-compensated players.
I'd say if the right situation came along - certainly we're not going over the [luxury-tax threshold] - but we could move closer to that. We were pretty high up in the food chain last year. A lot of teams realize the penalty is pretty severe if you go over. We'll stay within the strike zone.
Baseball lingo! So a couple of things to note here: the Astros' payroll in 2018 was about $182m. The luxury tax threshold will be about $206m. As it stands right this very minute, Houston is looking at a $137m payroll for 2019. That's subtracting Keuchel, Marwin, and McCann's salaries. This is the last year of Altuve's professional life that he'll make less than $10m, and that $137m figure from B-Ref accounts for Gerrit Cole's projected $13.1m arbitration salary.
Will the Astros add $45-65m in salaries this year? I could certainly spend Crane's money all day. Check back...at some point this offseason and find out!
*Chandler Rome has a good profile of Kyle Tucker, coming off a somewhat-disappointing MLB debut season. Tucker:
Last year was really cool. I tried - obviously, I wasn't going out there not trying - but I was a little in awe of all the stuff. This year, I don't care who I'm going to play against. I'm going to go out there and do well...I'm just going into this next season trying to do a lot of damage.
We were brought here primarily for scouting and player development purposes. I think we have the best track record - among the best track records in the industry - in this regard over certainly, the last several years, but even going over a 12-year, 14-year period dating back to St. Louis.
*There were some reports yesterday that the Mets, Yankees, and Marlins could be involved in a three-way trade that would send Noah Syndergaard to the Yankees, J.T. Realmuto to the Mets, and a haul of prospects to the Marlins. The Marlins downplayed that, but all indications are that the Marlins are looking to trade Realmuto. Realmuto is one known target of the Mets and two other, as-yet-unknown, teams.
-McCullers allowed 1H/0ER, 5K:1BB in 4.1IP
-Brendan McCurry threw 1.2 hitless IP
-Rogelio Armenteros threw 3IP, 1H/0ER, 5K:1BB.
-Tony Kemp was 2x4.
-J.D. Davis and Tyler White were each 1x4 with an RBI.
Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, and Aaron Hicks went a combined 0x13 with 5K. But 27 RANGZ.
*So Altuve's extension will kick in beginning with the 2020 season. The Astros haven't confirmed it yet, so we don't know the details of how the $151m is spread out, but it will keep him in Houston through his Age 34 season. Let's take a moment to look back at how the economics work on a year-by-year basis:
Off the books after 2018 Dallas Keuchel: $13.2m
Brian McCann: $11.5m (The Yankees will give the Astros $5.5m in 2018)
Charlie Morton: $7m
Evan Gattis: $6.7m
Tony Sipp: $6m
Marwin Gonzalez: $5.125m
Jon Singleton: $765,432 (suspension included)
Total: $49.525m
Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski are eligible for their first year of arbitration.
Off the books after 2019
Justin Verlander: $20m ($8m coming from the Tigers)
Joe Smith: $8m
Hector Rondon: $4.5m
Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh, and Brad Peacock will go into their first year of free agency.
Total: $32.5m
Alex Bregman is eligible for his first year of arbitration.
Baseball-Reference tells us the Astros have $21.4m already committed to 2020 with an estimated payroll (factoring in options, arbitration, etc) of $78.5m. They can afford Jose Altuve, who will be the 4th player in MLB history to earn $30m/year (Kershaw, Greinke, David Price).
Something to consider: the Altuve extension shows Correa, Bregman, Springer, McCullers, etc. that the Astros are willing to open the checkbook.
*Richard Justice: Hats off to Astros owner Jim Crane for doing this deal. Hats off as well to agent Scott Boras for hammering out this contract with Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow. Maybe in the end, they all came to the same place: Money aside, which Altuve might have gotten plenty of in a lot of places, he will never be as beloved as he is in this city.
*Jake Kaplan writes that the extension is yet another sign that this is a new Astros era.
Long-time friend of Astros County Brian Arbour sent this in for review and, ultimately, publication. Brian is an Associate Professor of Political Science at John Jay College, City University of New York. He is an Astros fan who teaches Yankees fans for a living.
What Springer’s Arbitration Settlement Tells Us: There is a Limit on Future Payrolls
By Brian Arbour
Today the Astros announced that they had agreed to a contract extension with George Springer that will pay the World Series MVP $24 million dollars over the next two years to patrol center field in Minute Maid Park.
What is most notable about this extension is its structure. The Astros will pay Springer $12 million dollars in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons.. The $12 million that Springer will earn in 2018 is not only higher than the $8.5 million the Astros offered in arbitration, but also the $10.5 million the team offered him.
The Astros offered Springer more money in 2018 than he would have made in arbitration, regardless of outcome. In exchange, Springer agreed to take less money in 2019 than he likely would have made in arbitration that season.
What should we learn from this unique contract signed by the Astros.
First, the Astros are in a relatively flush financial position in 2018. They had more money in their budget for 2018 than they had spent so far, and they decided to spend that money now in
an effort to reduce the money the need to spend next season.
Second, the Astros are not likely to sign another major league free agent before Opening Day. Some have suggested that the Astros might sign someone like Carlos Gonzalez or Lucas Duda to
be a left handed DH, but the team seems focused on letting Evan Gattis DH most days (and,
subsequently, to give a healthy number of plate appearances to Derrick Fisher)
And Third, the Astros are worried about their payroll in 2019 and 2020. By giving Springer more money now when they are flush, the Astros reduce his salary in 2019, In addition, there is a
good chance this will reduce Springer’s salary somewhat in 2020, as the arbitrator will likely base
Springer’s salary that season as a percentage increase off the $12 million in 2019.
This third point is the most important to me. The Astros current payroll is relatively low (19th entering the 2017 season) and highly efficient. Most of the team’s best players are cost-controlled. This allows management not only to operate with a payroll below nearly all of their companions on last years election, but also allowed the team to pay market prices for their 2017 veteran additions (Reddick, McCann, and Beltran).
Starting in 2019, the Astros payroll situation becomes murky. Next offseason, Dallas Keuchel, Marwin Gonzalez, and Charlie Morton are free agents, and Carlos Correa will get a big raise as he becomes eligible for free agency. In 2020, Jose Alruve and Justin Verlander can explore the market. In short, the Astros will need to pony up more bucks in the near future to retain their starts and to compete for another world championship.
But how much money will Jim Crane be willing to pony up to re-sign those players or find new ones? We don't know. And we don't know not just because the future is unknown. We don't know primarily because we have no track record with which to judge Crane and GM Jeff Luhnow’s willingness to boost the payroll. For Crane and Luhnow's entire tenure, the Astros have operated as a low budget team. But the decision to spend little money was part of a plan to rebuild the team from the ashheap left behind by Drayton McClane. The spending spree last off season was based on having a low payroll for the rest of the spots on the roster. It offers us little insight moving forward.
Will Crane spend lots of money in 2019 and beyond to take the teams payroll into the top third in the league? We don't know, but the move to frontload Springers contract is a signal that there are clearly limits on future payrolls. The Springer contract shaves dollars off of the payroll in 2019 and 2020.
Obviously, Crane could choose to spend up the payroll. The low payrolls up to this point have allowed him to run the team at a profit, even in the depths of the consecutive 100 loss seasons. I have a fantasy that he tucked some of those profits into certificates of deposits nicknamed 2019 payroll. Of course, it is just as possible that he used the money to expand his personal collection of ivory back scratchers. Crane could of course choose to run the Astros slightly less profitably to please his customers. Yeah, and monkeys might fly out of my butt.
That today’s Springer signing demonstrates that there is a limit to future spending by the Astros still does not answer every question about the future of the Astros finances. We do not know, nor can we, what the limit is on future spending. We also do not know how this year’s free agent market slowdown will depress prices to the point that the Astros future free agents seek out a contract extension with the team. What we do know is that the bill for paying the Astros is going to increase in the next few years. Management was trying to get ready for that today.
There are currently 38 players on the Astros' 40-Man Roster. The deadline to set the 40-Man roster for Rule 5 purposes is at 7pm Central today.
*FanGraphs: Houston ranks 8th in total guaranteed contracts owed for 2018 and taking on Verlander's contract as well as increases in arbitration for some key players (Keuchel, Springer, McCullers) will mean - obviously - that their payroll will increase.
*If you're planning on getting in line for Altuve's autograph at the Academy in Katy (I-10 and Grand Parkway) today...you're about eight hours too late.
*From the NCAA, who took time out of their busy schedule of screwing athletes, Evan Gattis' road to the World Series went through UT-Permian Basin.
Because I love those page vyuuuus and I want all the Clicks, and because my availability to randomly post #content during the day is quickly drawing to a close, I thought I'd take a look at the financials of acquiring Justin Verlander.
Let's set the stage a little bit. In a pair of tweets from Jon Morosi (who is a noted Michigander, so when he talks about the Tigers, I listen) he says that the Astros are interested in acquiring both Justin Verlander and Justin Wilson. Wilson would fill the need for a lefty reliever and Verlander would provide a Proven Veteran front-of-the-line starter (more on that in a minute) for the next few years. But he's expensive. Here's his contract:
2017: $28m
2018: $28m
2019: $28m
2020: Option for $22m vests if Verlander finishes in the 2019 AL Cy Young voting.
So if we eyeball the math on the rest of his salary for 2017...carry the one...let's say he's owed $13m at the time the Astros trade for him and Wilson. So that means Verlander would be owed $69m guaranteed (wink), and we won't concern ourselves with the vesting option for 2020.
$69m for a 34-year old starting pitcher currently going through the worst season of his career is steep. If we assume - and we're doing a lot of assuming in this post - the Tigers kick in half of Verlander's salary, the Astros would be on the hook for approximately $35m over the next two-and-a-half seasons. Can the Astros afford that?
To divide it evenly, it would mean the Astros adding $14m in payroll for this season and the next two seasons, as well. Yes, the Astros can afford that. Season-by-season:
2018
Potential money cleared:
Carlos Beltran ($16m)
Luke Gregerson ($6.25m)
Nori Aoki ($5.5m)
Total: $27.75m
I can't imagine Carlos Beltran getting another deal, much less one at $16m. Luke Gregerson is a free agent at the end of the year, and the Astros *could* let him walk. Depending on what happens with Derek Fisher in the next ten days, Nori Aoki is a non-tender candidate for 2018. $6-7m is a decent chunk of change for a 4th/5th OF.
Payroll added:
George Springer
Lance McCullers
Dallas Keuchel
Ken Giles
George Springer is looking to get PAID in his 3rd-year of arbitration, and will definitely command more than the $3.9m he's getting this year). McCullers will be in his first year of arbitration, so he'll get a substantial increase over his league minimum salary. Same argument for Ken Giles. Keuchel's salary may not increase too much over his $9.15m this year in his final season of arbitration given that he'll end up missing approximately two months of the season. Eyeballing arbitration figures, I'm going to assume Springer gets in the $8-10m range for 2018, McCullers and Giles in the $4-5m range, and Keuchel in the $10-11m range. That would bring an increase of $15m to the payroll. Subtracting that number from the above money cleared, that's a difference of about $13m. Leaving the Astros $1m short of Verlander's contract. A doable difference.
2019
Potential money cleared:
Brian McCann ($11.5m)
Charlie Morton ($7m)
Tony Sipp ($6m)
Jon Singleton ($2m)
Total: $26.5m
None of the above players figure into the 2019 team.
Payroll added:
Carlos Correa
Chris Devenski
Correa and Devenski will be arbitration-eligible for the first time, so they will command a decent payroll addition. Since arbitration is *supposed* to be a year-by-year valuation of a player and not a cumulative effort (i.e., it would be, uh, abnormal if, say, Alex Bregman was eligible for arbitration in 2020, had a crap 2019, but the panel said, "Your 2018 season was really good, so despite missing 159 games with an ear infection, we're going to award you $Eleventy Gajillion") I'm not going to speculate on 2nd- and 3rd-year arbitration players' salaries.
Other limitations of this exercise also involve a potential long-term deal for Altuve (upon whom the Astros can exercise a $6m and $6.5m - pause to shake your head until it falls off your damn shoulders - team option in 2018 and 2019, respectively), Springer, or Keuchel.
What this exercise *doesn't* do is evaluate whether Verlander is worth it. It also doesn't evaluate whether Verlander - a 10 & 5 guy - would waive his no-trade clause to join the Astros. But if Mr. Upton, who is clearly in the twilight of his career - wants a shot at his first World Series ring, then he'll need to approve a trade somewhere as Detroit looks to rebuild. And the Astros could handle his salary. The more salary the Astros take on, the less they have to pay in prospects.
