The Houston MF Astros beat the piss out of the Tampa Bay Rays, 17-4. Houston is 59-46, one game back of Las Colinas, who are 2-6 since starting the All-Star Break on a 6-0 run. The Astros are 14-9 in July, and 9-5 since the All-Star Break.
*Houston's 17 runs are the most in a game since August 18, 2022 when they put 21 on the White Sox, and it's the most runs scored at Minute Maid Park since September 8, 2019, which featured a 21-1 win over the Mariners.
*Houston's five home runs are the most since July 16. It's the fourth time they've hit 5+ homers in a game. They have hit at least one home run in ten straight games, and hit 2+ homers in five of those. Houston is 10-0 when hitting 3+ home runs.
*6-9 in the lineup (Abreu-McCormick-Diaz-Meyers): 11x16, 10 runs scored, 1K:3BB, 8RBI, four extra-base hits.
*Since the All-Star Break:
Yordan: .455/.538/.818
Chas: .388/.492/.776
Tucker: .365/.469/.750
Bregman: .339/.403/.714
Abreu: .315/.393/.500
Meyers: .304/.385/.522
Yainer: .278/.308/.583
Altuve: .250/.250/.667
Pena: .185/.228/.222 (so, sure, keep hitting him 2nd)
Maldy: .176/.176/.324
Julks: .075/.191/.100
*Corey Julks is going through it. He has 0 hits in his last 33 Plate Appearances and is 3x46 since enjoying a three-hit game against the Mariners on July 6.
*Jose Altuve hit his 199th career home run.
*Chas McCormick was 3x5 with a triple and 2RBI, his 4th three-hit game of the season.
*Jeremy Pena was 2x6 with a career-high 4RBI - 10.3% of his season RBI came in last night's game. He had five RBI from June 29-July 28 (18 games). Pena has RBIs in consecutive games for the first time since May 27-28.
*Jose Abreu was 3x3 with a homer and 3RBI. Since June 1, Abreu is hitting .288/.330/.484
*Kyle Tucker was 0x6 for the 2nd time in his career, and the first time since May 29, 2021.
*Downtown Hunter Brown: 6IP, 4H/2ER, 4K:2BB. Since the All-Star Break, Brown: 17.1IP, 16H/8ER, 15K:4BB, 4HR. Note the emergence of Hunter Brown's sweeper-slider.
*Rafael Montero's 1.8 HR/9inn is the highest of his career since he posted a 1.9 HR/9 in 2016 with the Mets.
*Speaking of the Mets, they traded Max Scherzer to the Rangers yesterday. Scherzer's 4.01 ERA would be the highest of his career since 2011 and his 4.73 FIP is the highest he's ever expected. Since getting lit up by the Yankees on June 13, Scherzer: 8 starts, 51IP, 42H/20ER, 61K:16BB, 3.53 ERA / 1.14 WHIP.
*Chandler Rome threw water on the Verlander-to-Houston rumors, and wonders who, exactly, is in charge of the Astros.
*Kendall Graveman is excited to be an Astro again. I would be excited, too, if I got traded and jumped 16.5 games up the standings.
The Astros completed their second straight sweep of the week with a 2-0 win over Oakland, extending their winning streak to seven games, and making them winners of ten of their last eleven games. The Astros are 6-0 since the return of Hot Links.
1916 A's Watch, after 48 games:
2023 A's: 10-38
1916 A's: 15-32-1
*Jose Altuve's 5th Inning RBI single was his 1,937th career hit. That's notable because, Astros franchise career hit leaders:
1. Craig Biggio: 3,060
2. Jeff Bagwell: 2,314
3. Jose Cruz: 1,937
3. Jose Altuve: 1,937
From his debut through the 2017 season, Altuve had a hit every 3.45 Plate Appearances. Since 2018, it's a hit every 3.87 Plate Appearances. If we go according to the second set of data Altuve would need 1,063 hits to reach 3,000, which would take another 4,109 PAs - another six seasons and change assuming he plays in 145-162 games per season. Missing 63 games in 2018 and 2019, the shortened COVID season, and not starting 2023 until May 19 has hurt his chances a little bit.
*Framber Valdez gave the bullpen a break, deciding to do the whole damn thing himself and throwing the Astros' first Complete Game Shutout of the season.
*Astros Complete Games by a Starter, 2017-
Framber Valdez: 5
Justin Verlander: 3
Dallas Keuchel: 2
Zack Greinke: 1
*Astros CGSHOs by a Starter, 2017-
Framber Valdez: 2
Justin Verlander: 2
Gerrit Cole: 1
It was the first CGSHO by an Astros pitcher at Minute Maid Park since Keuchel on August 5, 2016. Framber's 86 Game Score is the highest since Cristian Javier's combined no-hitter against the Yankees on June 25, 2022.
*Until this series in Houston, Oakland pitchers - as a whole - posted a 7.83 ERA / 1.68 WHIP. They had allowed 11+ runs in a single game 12 times (out of the 45 games they played against Not-Houston). Oakland held the Astros to ten runs (9ER) in a three-game series - or a 3.00 ERA.
*A's pitcher James Kaprielian came into Sunday's start with a 10.17 ERA then threw 5IP, 3H/1ER, 5K:4BB to get his ERA down to 8.68.
*Houston went 5x27 with runners in scoring position in the series.
*Martin Maldonado had his first 2-hit game since April 30.
*Jose Abreu was 0x2 but drew two walks for the third time all season, and the second time this series. He also grounded into an inning-ending bases-loaded double play. So Abreu gonna Abreu.
*Alex Bregman was 0x4, his second hitless game since May 12.
Bregman, March 30-May 7 (34 games): .195/.322/.320 - .196 BABIP.
Bregman, May 8-Present (12 games): .283/.346/.478 - .262 BABIP.
*Prior to Jake Meyers' 8th Inning groundout, he had reached base safely in nine consecutive PAs.
*Uh-oh: Lance McCullers Jr won't be ready until at least the All-Star Break, which is [checks notes] July 10. Dusty [LL Cool J voice]: Don't call it a setback.
Lance McCullers Regular Season IP, 2019-2023: 265.0
Framber Valdez Regular Season IP, 2022-2023: 267.1IP
*Danielle Lerner: How Chas McCormick is working himself back into form.
*It was a must-win game for Leeds United, who for the second week in a row had a 1-0 lead, and for the second week in a row blew it. Whereas LUFC got a tie against Newcastle, an exhausted West Ham still managed to find the net three times. FiveThirtyEight has Leeds at 94% to get relegated. Here's what has to happen for Leeds to not get relegated to the second division:
1a: Beat Tottenham Hotspur
1b: Everton lose to Bournemouth
1c: Leicester City get a maximum of three points away at Newcastle today and at home to West Ham.
If 1a doesn't happen, then 1b and 1c don't matter. It's Bleak Hours at ACHQ.
And in the end the Astros lost their last game of the season, something that has happened in 58 of their 59 seasons. Despite out-hitting Tampa 59-44, Houston lost a seven-game series getting outscored by a total of three runs. The Rays simply took advantage of more mistakes than the Astros. That said, coming back from an 0-3 deficit to force a Game 7 for a 3rd Pennant in four years, in a "season" in which you got six innings from Justin Verlander, nine PAs from Yordan Alvarez, 4.1IP from Roberto Osuna, is extremely impressive. I'm mad as hell, but I appreciate what this team did since the end of July. Super-appreciative of the ride they gave us, but I'm going to need some space from this team.
The legacy of this group is that these guys are ballpayers. These guys are men; they have been through a whole bunch other than on the ballfield. Now these guys can forget the problems they had that it out there and come together as a group and be forever friends.
This is painful when you're one game away from going to the World Series. I'm proud of these guys, because nobody expected us to even be in the position or even to be here....One thing's for sure: We'll be back in this position again next year.
*MLB: Anatomy of the Astros' comeback, and near-miss.
*Houston, as a team, was 11x46 with runners in scoring position. The 2020 ALCS, w/RISP:
Saturday's loss lived as a microcosm of Houston's 73-game run, one riddled with ineffectiveness, injury and invective from the outside following the sign-stealing scandal. The lineup disappeared, as it so often did during a 29-31 regular season. A clutch hit never came.
*Carlos Correa drove in the only two runs of Game 7. He hit .362/.455/.766 in the 2020 Postseason, with 17 RBI. Correa:
We didn't fold. We kept battling. We got to the playoffs and no one gave us a chance in Minnesota. We won three games against Oakland. They beat us in the regular season and we came up huge and won that series. Down, 0-3, everybody was talking about the Astros getting swept and this and that. We came back and forced Game 7. It wasn't the finale we wanted, but I'm just proud of this team, man. It's been unbelievable.
*I have no idea, and will never understand, why the Astros continued to challenge Randy Arozarena. Arozarena hit a 2-run home run.
Arozarena: .321/.367/.786 in the ALCS
Ji-Man Choi: .385/.529/.615 in the ALCS
Nobody else in that lineup had an average over .278. Six of the Rays' Game 7 lineup had an ALCS average under .167. Sixteen of the 25 runs the Rays scored - yes, they only scored 25 runs in seven games - came on home runs. Kevin Cash:
We are lucky to have Charlie Morton. For a group that doesn't have a wealth of experience in these roles, Charlie does. He has been there, done that. It lined up really, really well for us.
*Charlie Morton in Game 7s, career: 14.2IP, 6H/1ER, 15K:3BB. Beginning with the 2017 ALCS Game 7, Morton has recorded seven straight Wins in the postseason.
It sucks, man. It really does. But congrats to the Rays. They're a damn good team. They've been the best team in the AL all season. They went through the Yankees and they went through us. You have to tip your cap to them, as well. It sucks because it just feels like we were right there.
We got down 3-0 and we fought and we showed the kind of team and kind of grit that makes up this team. We weren't on a revenge tour. That's not what this was. This was a bunch of guys that came together, wanted to play damn good baseball and win a World Series. And we fell short of our goal.
*Bregman, 2020 Postseason: .220/.316/.300. After recording three straight two-hit games from ALDS Game 3-ALCS Game 1, Bregman went .083/.154/.083 in 26 PAs. And we still don't know why Bregman was pulled late in Game 7.
Bregman, 2020 until the hamstring injury: .272/.374/.500, 13 extra-base hits, 15K:14BB.
Bregman, 2020 after the hamstring injury: .187 (I'm bad at calculating OBP and SLG)
I'm extremely proud of this team for fighting every single day, battling every pitch and going out there and playing hard and playing for one another. But like I said before, our goal is always to win the last game of the season, so it's time to work extremely hard in the offseason and get better.
*Gurriel, 2020 Postseason: .114/.245/.114.
*Jayson Stark: The Weird and the Wild of ALCS Game 7.
*Of course now the focus of the front office turns to free agency. Is this the end of the Astros era? George Springer, Michael Brantley, and Josh Reddick are all free agents once the World Series ends. Correa, on Springer:
Some guys that we love very much and we've been playing with forever, and hopefully they come back, but if they don't, we're going to miss them for sure. We've got George Springer. He's been my teammate since I got to the big leagues and been a great leader and role model.
Springer:
I haven't really thought about that yet. Our season just ended. I'm more focused on kind of what's happening now, what happened tonight, and I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.
*Jerome Solomon: There is plenty for the Astros to look forward to.
*Jake Kaplan: All the looming off-season questions for the Astros.
*Now, I guess we just wait. Read for pleasure. Go to bed early. Drink some herbal tea. Hot Links will continue throughout the off-season with or without Astros news. Thank you for reading along.
Welcome to the 2019 World Series. The Astros got nine hits, four walks, two hits with runners in scoring position that somehow didn't score any runs, lined their way into outs while the Rays hit shots off the end of their bat that found a hole, left ten men on base, struck out 13 Rays, and lost 2-1. Baseball is a faithless whore. It's Charlie Morton vs. Lance McCullers at 3:07pm today and I'm sure the announcers will focus on Charlie Morton's presence on the 2017 World Series team and all the [waves hands] you know.
Ultimately the Astros had Snell on the ropes (105 pitches in 5IP?) and couldn't get more than Altuve's home run. Tampa has enough Actual Wizards in their bullpen - all flowing hair and weird beards and capes - that they can't let those opportunities go to waste like that. Not that anyone needed this type of #analysis.
George Springer's lineout in the 1st had an expected batting average (xBA) of .700. Kyle Tucker's liner that resulted in a double play in the 4th Inning had an expected batting average of .790. Michael Brantley's groundout in the 5th had an xBA of .540. George Springer's groundout in the 7th had an xBA of .510. Those are the four highest xBAs of the night that didn't actually result in a hit. Extremely 2019 World Series vibes. Chandler Rome noted that, of the 12 balls the Astros hit harder than 93mph off the bat, only five fell for hits. Dusty:
It's disappointing. We hit some balls good. Opportunity's the name of the game. If you keep getting opportunities, sooner or later you're going to come through. If you don't get an opportunity, you don't have a chance. We had a heck of a chance tonight, and they just got away.
Bregman:
We were hitting the ball hard, hitting line drives. We didn't punch out a lot. I thought the at-bats were awesome. We just didn't get that big hit tonight. That's baseball. If we keep putting up those good at-bats, I like our chances.
The Astros allowed two runs and struck out 13 batters, and lost. The only time that's happened in a Houston postseason game prior to last night was Game 5 of the 1986 NLCS ew no stop typing now. Houston is 6-2 in the postseason under that extremely specific criteria.
*Richard Justice, on the key plays that all somehow went the Rays way.
*Framber was great: 6IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:4BB. He joins Gerrit Cole, Randy Johnson, Dallas Keuchel, Nolan Ryan, and Justin Verlander as the only Astros pitchers in franchise postseason history to throw 6IP, 4H/2ER, with 8K. And, true to Astros fashion, Houston is 6-4 when they get starts like that. Framber:
I feel like this year I've had a chance to really demonstrate the pitcher that I am and that I always have been. I had, in the past, where things could get away from me a little bit in the middle of the game, but I've made adjustments to my game this year...For me, I just feel blessed to have the success that I've had this year.
*Jose Altuve put the Astros on the board in the 1st Inning with a solo shot off Blake Snell that proved to be the only Astros run of the game. It's his 16th postseason home run (four behind Yeah Jeets for the most in MLB postseason history by a middle infielder and six more than Chase Utley for the all-time postseason home run mark by a 2B), and he has now hit a home run in three straight postseason games. Petco Park is the 22nd park in which Altuve has hit a home run. All-time multi-hit postseason games:
*In the regular season, the Astros hit .212/.447/.338 with a full count. With a full count in Game 1:
Springer: 0x2
Altuve: 0x1
Brantley: 0x1
Bregman: 2x2
Correa: 0x0, 2BB
Gurriel, 0x0, BB
*Gurriel: When Yuli Gurriel came up with the bases loaded in the 8th and one out, Tampa's win expectancy was just 51.9%. One pitch later it was 86.7%. From when he started with the Astros through the 2020 Wild Card Series, Gurriel had GIDPd once in 194 postseason PAs. He's done it twice in his last 18 postseason PAs now.
*Mike Zunino had swung the bat five times on the first pitch in the 2020 regular season. He had hit .125/.250/.375 with two outs in the regular season. He had hit .158 with runners in scoring position all year. He had two hits with runners in scoring position and two outs all year long. I hate this game. Game 1, yes. But also, baseball.
*Aledmys Diaz's AB in the 5th was Extremely Stupid. John Curtiss had thrown 17 pitches before facing Diaz with runners on 1st and 3rd. Ten of them - including six of the previous seven pitches - were balls. Yet Diaz shot the ball into the ground on the 1st pitch Curtiss threw to ground out and end the inning.
*FanGraphs: With super-subs and unlikely stars, the Rays take Game 1. Jon Tayler:
With this bullpen and modular lineup - and having to face Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton - there are many ways to lose to the Rays and few to beat them. Score early and they'll scratch you to death, bit by bit, as their hitters grind away and seemingly always have the platoon advantage. Fail to score early and you'll be facing the best bullpen in baseball and a team that hasn't lost a single game this year in which it's held a lead after the seventh inning. And even if it all goes right, watch as the likes of Mike Zunino and his 65 wRC+ this season drives in the go-ahead run with a single off your best starter.
*Pedro Gomez: Where did Randy Arozarena come from? Dude takes a knee every AB (from swinging out of his shoes) and nobody gets mad at him.
*CC Sabathia, on the Yankees' ALDS decisions: "What the f--k?"
*Wired: How to block bad websites - or just get things done.
*Check out this bullcrap: The English Football League (everything below the Premier League) have a plan to overhaul English soccer by placing control in the hands of the top Premier League teams. Of course Manchester United (owned by the Glazer family) and Liverpool (owned by the Bastard John Henry) love it.
*The Economist: The Secret Life of a Private Tutor to the Wealthy...which immediately led me to this.
Well I hope you enjoyed the Foot Ball. The Sooners sort of Boomer'd - sorry Texsa Fan. So yesterday was a Saturday where there was no playoff baseball, no Premier League, and only COVIDball. What a terrible time to be alive. 1st Pitch is at 6:37pm Central on TBS. Some notes in advance of Game 1:
*All-Time on October 11, the Astros are 2-3 (but are 2-0 since starting 0-3!)
All-Time franchise LCS Game 1 record: 2-3
*The Game 1 SPs will be Framber Valdez vs. Blake Snell, Game 2 will be Lance McCullers vs. TBA. That's literally the plan. The Rays have changed the game so much that Ten Bloody Armadillos will each get a shot at the Astros' lineup, to maddening success.
Snell vs. Houston, regular season career: six starts, 2-2, 4.73 ERA / 1.49 WHIP, .264/.350/.512, 31K:16BB.
Snell vs. Houston, postseason career: three appearances (one start, two in relief all in the 2019 ALDS), 5.1IP, 1.69 ERA / 0.75 WHIP, 7K:0BB.
The Rays are 5-4 overall when Snell pitches against the Astros since 2016. FiveThirtyEight has it 53-47 Rays in Game 1. If you click that link you'll find that the Rays have a slight edge in every. single. game. Snell:
It's gonna be a battle for sure, because they don't give in at all. Once they get on you it's like blood in the water. They're a bunch of sharks...It's gonna be a fun little competition.
*Chandler Rome: Dusty Baker is sticking with Yuli Gurriel. Dusty:
Yuli's my first baseman. You're not going to find it on the bench. You're going to find it playing. I'm not a fair-weather coach.
After the double-header with Oakland on August 29, Gurriel was hitting .292/.348/.517 - a very respectable .865 OPS. He "hit" .154/.168/.209 to finish the regular season. Gurriel is 2x23 - both singles - this postseason, but 1K:1BB. He's making contact, just the wrong kind. Gurriel's BABIP in the postseason is .087. So I went back through StatCast to find just how many balls he hit with an expected batting average of over .400 with what actually happened from September 1 through the end of the regular season:
Number of balls hit with an xBA > .400 that resulted in an out: 16
Now, you can't say that every ball you hit with a 40% chance of getting on base will result in getting on base 100% of the time - I realize that. So if we say that maybe eight of those 16 balls should have been hits, that would raise his average from .154 to .242. Again, this is spitballing.
Number of balls hit in the 2020 Postseason with an xBA > .400 that resulted in an out:
Game 1 WC: 1 (.740 xBA)
Game 2 WC: 0
Game 1 ALDS: 1 (.470 xBA)
Game 2 ALDS: 0
Game 3 ALDS: 1 (.410 xBA)
Game 4 ALDS: 0
That's not terribly telling, but it does tell you that instead of being 2x23, maybe he should be 5x23, and .217 is way different than .087. And he's a great defensive 1B. And who else are you going to put over there? And the Cionel Perez robbed Yuli of a BP homer yesterday. Yuli going off tonight.
*Given that there are no off-days from Games 1-7, Dusty said he's probably going to add a pitcher to the roster. Those eligible pitchers are Brandon Bailey, Brandon Bielak, Humberto Castellanos, Chase De Jong, Shawn Dubin, Ralph Garza, Cionel Perez, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. None of them have ever pitched in the postseason before. Hell, only De Jong and Perez had pitched in the Majors before 2020.
On a scale of Zero to Weird, it's going to be Weird.
*Peter Gammons pointed out that in February fans in Port St. Lucie booed Michael Brantley, who was not on the 2017 team, and did not boo J.D. Davis and Jake Marisnick, who were. People are stupid. I mean, have you ever interacted with any of them? People, I mean. I try to avoid it.
It did not dawn on me until right now that there were no days off in a League Championship Series.
We now know the Astros will face the Tampa Bay Rays. Five weeks after Aroldis Chapman was suspended two games for throwing over Mike Brousseau's head, Brousseau took Chapman deep for a go-ahead home run to send Tampa to their 2nd ALCS in franchise history. It's the 4th postseason home run Chapman has allowed and, for a second-straight year, he takes the L in an elimination game. Aaron Boone:
It's awful. The ending is cruel, it really is.
Plot twist: It's not.
There are no common opponents to compare the Astros and Rays in 2020. Even comparing 2020 regular season stats seem kind of dumb, given how the ALDS went. But let's just get this over with, FanGraphs rankings, 2020 regular season:
It's surreal...I was there for 14 years. I know almost everybody there...They're some of my closest friends and just couldn't be happier for them...Look, I was pulling for them...but at the same time now that they're here the focus is try and figure out how to beat them, how do we get past them and get to the World Series.
*Some guy decided to ask Dodgers President Andrew Friedman about the Astros and he said:
I think them playing the victim's complex card is a little interesting to me. Like, I get that it's been a difficult year for them, but to play the victim card, I think has been, you know, a curious strategy.
*Tyler Kepner: On Whitey Ford and the one game he never got to pitch.
Alright, some things happened. Let's talk about them:
The Astros hired 42-year old Yale- and Baseball Prospectus-grad James Click to be their general manager. Click was the Rays' VP of Baseball Operations. He's the 15th General Manager in Astros history - actually maybe he's considered the 12th general manager in Astros history since Tal Smith served as GM on three separate occasions (1965-67, 1975-80, 2007). Click apparently signed a multi-year contract. Click will be introduced in a press conference at 10:30am on Tuesday.
Click: I am excited to join the Astros family. The Astros are a progressive and innovative organization with a deeply talented group in the front office. I am grateful to Jim Crane and the Astros for giving me this opportunity to help lead this team to more championships.
Crane: James has had an impressive career. He is a respected leader who has progressed in this game across all aspects of Baseball Operations and he has built great relationships with both front office and clubhouse personnel.
You can read this Tampa Bay Times article from January 29 regarding Click. Marc Topkin: Click...joined the Rays in 2005 as an intern to help build a database for new baseball operations chief Andrew Friedman. Click got hired full time in 2006, and the Yale history major has worked his way up to vice president of baseball operations. He has had a hand in all facets of the operation, including systems, research and development, logistics, player evaluation, contract negotiations and more.
Click is basically the Outside-Hire That Feels Like It's An Internal Promotion GM hire. You couldn't draw up a better story for a GM that would fit the Astros' current MO more than Click. It's a fresh start, but it feels like a continuation.
Click may have to hire a new manager here in about 11 months.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield: One stat that will determine each team's 2020. For the Astros: 500 - the number of innings pitched by 2019 Astros pitchers who are not returning to the team in 2020.
Plot Twist: There is no level of contrition the Astros could possibly show before the start of the regular season that will suffice. There's nothing that will satiate the bloodlust. MLB has their villain, it's the Astros, and nothing will change that. It's how it is now. Alex Bregman could come out in an alternate uni of sackcloth & ashes and get on his knees and beg the media for forgiveness, and the goalposts will move.
*SI's Matt Martell: Ten Questions for the Unofficial Start of Baseball Season. #9 is "How Good Will The Astros Be?"
The Astros beat the Rays, just as we all knew in our hearts would happen and bowels definitely was not loose heading into Game 5. Houston is 15-4 at home under A.J. Hinch in the postseason, and Jim Crane should give Gerrit Cole whatever he wants. ALCS Game 1 is tomorrow night against the Westchester Yankees, 7:08pm Central on Fox. Great. Houston is the first team since the Verlander-led 2011-2013 Tigers to reach the Championship Series three years in a row.
Some series stats stuff before getting into G5:
-FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros a 54-46 edge in the ALCS, and a 36% chance of winning the World Series. FanGraphs has just about the same projection for the ALCS: 53.6% for the Astros, with the highest-probability scenario of Astros in 6. FanGraphs also has the Astros at 49.7% to win the World Series, highest of the four remaining teams by far.
Game 5
*Gerrit Cole: Really, honestly, now that we've won it, it was good to get hit in the mouth twice.
*Hinch: This was a grinder of a series, obviously, and we get to Game 5, and we get to have it at our home field, and we get to have Gerrit Cole. A lot of that is lined up well for us, and we respond with a really good game. Big moments, big atmosphere today and big-time performances by big-time players. *The Astros held the Rays to two hits - one of them a solo home run from Eric Sogard. Gerrit Cole was unbelievable, again: 8IP, 2H/1ER, 10K:2BB.
Since 1962 there have been 31 instances of a pitcher throwing at least 7.2IP in a postseason start, allowing no more than four hits, and striking out 10+ batters. Gerrit Cole has done it in back-to-back starts. The last player to do it before Cole was Matt Moore in 2016 NLDS G4. The only other Astros pitcher to do it was Nolan Ryan in 1986 NLCS G5. The only other time a pitcher did it in back-to-back postseason starts (in the same series): Sandy Koufax in the 1965 World Series. 22 pitchers made at least one start with those parameters in the postseason. Notably, Justin Verlander has three such starts, Zack Greinke has one. Now Cole has two.
Cole's 25 strikeouts in the Division Series broke Stephen Strasburg's record of 22. Elias Sports Bureau noted that, when Cole went through the 2nd Inning, it broke a streak of 73 straight innings dating back to August 1 in which he failed to strike out at least one batter, the longest streak in the expansion era. 1999 Pedro is 2nd, with 40 straight innings. That's insane. Bregman: This team is special, and the reason that we're special is because different guys step up every single night. Yeah, if one guy goes off we're probably going to win. Gerrit went off twice this series.
Jayson Stark: Gerrit Cole's historic run is almost impossible to put into words.
Cole was so good that I didn't even realize the Astros went 19 batters between hits.
*The Astros got four runs on five hits in the first six batters of the game. Bregman: The Rays pitching staff was unbelievable to face. I think the only time the ball looked that small was opening weekend of the year when we faced them. So they were really, really good. It was a really good test. *Springer, who is back: To get Gerrit a lead, to make them play from behind a little bit, it was obviously huge for us. Playing from behind is not easy. We spent basically Games 3 and 4 playing from behind. It's not easy to do, so for us to have a lead was pretty big.
*Brantley and Altuve hit back-to-back home runs in the 8th, and it was Altuve's 11th home run of the postseason, most ever in the playoffs by a second baseman. It was Michael Brantley's first-ever postseason home run.
Postseason home runs, Biggio/Bagwell: 4
Postseason home runs, Springer/Altuve: 22
*Was Tyler Glasnow tipping pitches? Manager Kevin Cash: I'm aware that there is speculation about pitch tipping. It's something that we have discussed. It's a little tough to do that, make an adjustment in Game 5 of a division series. But at the end of the day, give the guys the credit that went up to the plate and put the ball in play and hit line drives. I think that's what did us in.
Glasnow: I'm not going to say that was the reason why. I left some pitches that were there to hit over the middle of the plate. They are really good hitters. They can do things [with those]. I don't care how hard you throw, they are good hitters. I don't know if that's what it was, but when I look back, it was pretty obvious.
Hunter Atkins addresses the pitch-tipping (noting that it was the height of Glasnow's glove when he came set). Kevin Kiermaier: I had a great view from center field. The way they were swinging at certain pitches and taking others, it didn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
*Carlos Correa was 0x4 with 3Ks. His line in the ALDS: 3x19, 9K:0BB. .158/.158/.211. Correa, on the ALCS: It's the matchup that we wanted. It's the matchup that everybody wants to watch. It's must-see TV right there. So everybody is going to be tuning in. It's going to be fun.
*The only thing that is not ideal is that it would likely take a Game 7 for Cole to pitch twice against the Yankees. If the Astros can finish off the Yankees early, then Cole would be set to start the World Series. I can't believe I'm actually typing these Ifs.
*Josh Reddick, with the line of the night: We're ready for [the Yankees]. We know it's going to be a good series. We know they're a great ballclub, but we're a better ballclub.
Wake up, time to die. Today is the day we find out if the Astros move on to the ALCS or if they flushed a 107-win season down the toilet in the span of four days. Game 5 is tonight at 6:07pm Central on Everyone's Favorite Sports Broadcasting Network FS1. Your pals Joe Girardi and AJ Pierzynski will no doubt be on the call tickling your eardrums with their delightful commentary.
*The Astros - unlike a lot of you/us - are confident. Bregman, on playing behind Gerrit Cole: He's an ace. We look forward to it. It's going to be a lot of fun. We're going to be fired up and looking to play as well as we can behind him. Hinch: I love that we're here [Ed. Note: I'm assuming "here" means "Minute Maid Park," not "Game 5"] And the way we got here is nerve-wracking just because you don't want to get to a Game 5. We fought all year to have a better record and to win our division to get this particular game at home. And they've got to come into our house and beat us again. With Cole on the mound, I don't know who could be more confident than us. A few stats on Gerritund Brentford Cole:
*The Astros scored an average of 6.67 runs/game when Cole started. Houston is 22-4 when Cole starts at home since the beginning of 2018 (postseason included).
*On April 20, Gerrit Cole allowed 9H/8ER to the soon-to-be-eliminated Farmers Branch Rangers. His season ERA was 5.22 In 29 starts since then (ALDS G2 included), Cole has thrown 190.2IP, 120H/42ER, 297K:40BB, a 1.98 ERA / 0.84 WHIP. His strikeouts alone from April 25-today would rank 6th-highest in franchise history.
*On May 22, Cole allowed 7H/6ER to the White Sox in a 9-4 loss. That was the last time Gerrit Cole has taken an L. That's 142 days.
*On July 12, the Astros lost a game Cole started against the Lower McKinney Ramgers. That was the last time the Astros lost a game Cole started. Since that start, Houston is 12-0 when Gerrit Cole takes the mound.
*Gerrit Cole, in 17 starts at Minute Maid Park in 2019, threw 120.2IP, 74H/33ER, 189K:20BB, a 2.46 ERA / 0.78 WHIP.
*Gerrit Cole, in two postseason starts at Minute Maid Park: 14.2IP, 7H/1ER, 27K:1BB, a 0.61 ERA / 0.55 WHIP.
*Houston is 14-4 at home in the postseason under A.J. Hinch.
*Opposing starter Tyler Glasnow, who literally cried when Altuve hit a home run, could go 90 pitches. It'll be a bullpen game if the Astros make it a bullpen game. Oh wow did you know Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow were taken by the Pirates in the same draft? Jordan Shipley's dad and Colt McCoy's dad were roommates when they were in college.
*Carlos Correa, on the almost-non-existent offense in the ALDS: It's time for us to go off as an offense. You guys are used to seeing us score 10, 15 runs in the regular season, but when it comes to the playoffs, it's the best of the best, and they're doing a good job. At the same time, we're the best offense in the league, and we have to adjust in our approach.
*FanGraphs has the Astros at 65.4-34.6 to win Game 5. FiveThirtyEight has it at 70-30 Astros. Figure out the ALCS when it comes, tip your cap to the Rays if it doesn't and start to heal your liver.
*Mike Lupica: It's Tampa's biggest game in a decade. This is a side note, but I really appreciate Kevin Cash. Hell of a manager. Good job, dude.
*Richard Justice: The Rays' bullpen makes them so difficult. Altuve: I think I faced four different guys [in Game 4]. They're all different. And they have something really special.
*Alyson Footer: A.J. Hinch likes his own bullpen depth. Hinch: Oftentimes these relievers are only talked about when they struggle or when they give up a big hit. It's a thankless job. If they don't do their job, they blew the game. Nobody has really blown games in this series. Both teams have won the games that they kind of are ahead in and how they're supposed to win, and how we match up in the end. We'll see if that can continue. And I like the chances with the depth we have
*Let this be Bulletin-Board (or Insta-story material) for Carlos Correa: FanGraphs ranks him as the 16th-best (fantasy-wise) shortstop going into 2020, and places it solely on his injury history.
*MLBTR - who is genuinely reliable in matters of this sort - released their arbitration projections for 2020. With Game 5 looming, I'm not ready to discuss this, but it's worth a look, especially for George Springer's projected $21.4m salary.
*The Los Angeles Dodgers gave up a 10th Inning grand slam to lose Game 5 7-3. Clayton Kershaw gave up back-to-back homers in the 8th to tie it.
Kershaw, regular season: 169-74, 2.44 ERA / 1.01 WHIP.
Kershaw, postseason: 9-11, 4.43 ERA / 1.10 WHIP.
*It would be okay with me if the Astros did a Cards tomorrow. Related: Former Astros Great Brian McCann retired after the game. From 2005-2019 - McCann's entire career - he posted 54.5 fWAR, ranked only behind Russell Martin (?) for catchers. Better than Yadier "IG Tough Guy" Molina. Most fWAR, Catchers, 1962-2019:
1. Johnny Bench (74.8)
2. Gary Carter (69.4)
3. Ivan Rodriguez (69.2)
4. Carlton Fisk (68.3)
5. Mike Piazza (63.7)
6. Joe Torre (59.3)
7. Russell Martin (55.2)
8. Brian McCann (54.5)
9. Ted Simmons (54.2)
10. Yadier Molina (54.0)
McCann: 282 home runs, 1018 RBIs, .789 OPS, 110 OPS+, never struck out 100+ times in a season, 7-time All-Star, 6-time Silver Slugger, World Series Champion. The next item on McCann's to-do list is to write his HOF speech.
*The road team won both Game 5s in the NL on Wednesday.
*Astros Bench Coach Joe Espada is up against Carlos Beltran, Joe Girardi, and David Ross for the Cubs' managerial position, which could explain why Girardi won't shut up with his Manager-Speak for Mother FS1.
*A Musical Selection, with a special note: I'm a dad with a beard, happily married for many years, so I hit all the pre-requisites for liking Jeff Tweedy and Wilco. That said, I saw Wilco play in a downtown Nashville parking lot in the summer of 2002 for free and, fresh with nicotine poisoning, told my future wife that I loved her for the first time. We got married 365 days later. It was because of this song (and her):
It's Game Day! Literally Game DAY! 12:05pm is first pitch on MLB Network, with Zack Greinke facing off against Charlie Morton.
This will be the third time the Astros have faced Former Astros Great Charlie F. Morton: March 29: 5IP, 3H/2ER, 8K:2BB in a 4-2 Rays win in Game 2 of the season. August 27: 4IP, 7H/6ER, 4K:2BB in a 15-1 Astros win. His 26 Game Score here was his worst of the season. Correa was not in the lineup.
The Astros are 51.7-48.3 favorites today by FanGraphs. Since the Trade Deadline, the Astros are 27-6 in games started by Verlander, Cole, and Greinke.
*McTaggart: The Astros know the opportunity they have with a sweep today. Hinch: The biggest value is guys get a day off, too. We would love to be done and close the series out. There's no reason for us to want to play any more games other than the ones we have to. If you can escape a series without using JV and Cole [more than once], that would be outstanding, setting up the next series.
*Under A.J. Hinch, the Astros are 4-4 in games where they can win a series. The losses: 2015 ALDS Games 4 & 5, 2017 ALDS Game 3, 2017 WS Game 6.
*Most wins in a season, franchise history, postseason included:
*You can read the transcript of Zack Greinke's media session from Sunday afternoon. If you decide to interpret his comments as "dismissive" or "difficult" then you can go piss right off. We have talked before about Zack Greinke and anxiety, and this is just who he is because it's what he deals with on a daily basis. He's not weak, he's not fragile. His brain works a little differently. It's not his fault. I'm sure - on some level - he wishes he could be Alex Bregman in front of the cameras (who doesn't wish they could be Alex Bregman...anywhere) but that's just not him. It's not a personality flaw, it's not a symbol of a broken person. His brain is different. And if you make light of it, then you should be ashamed of yourself.
*Anthony Castrovince: How dominant is the Astros' starting trio? Hinch: I think it's hard for us, while we're in it, to put ourselves in a historical context or kind of compare eras. Like, we're in the middle of something really special here in Houston with the players that we have. I think we're going to look back and have even a greater appreciation for how unique a group of guys this is.
*Yuli Gurriel: Scoop Machine. If Yuli doesn't get some Gold Glove love at 1B this year, then what are we even doing. Hinch: He's got incredible hands, but he works on it every day. He has that as part of his routine. He started that back a couple years ago and he does it every day. Repetition helps. Hand-eye coordination helps. He never panics. He has soft hands.
*FanGraphs' Meg Rowley: The Astros remind the Rays and us of their, and our, mortality.
Rays starting pitchers have made two bad pitches. The Astros are up 2-0 in the series, and are one win away from advancing to the ALCS.
*Houston went from 69.5% favorites to win the Series on Friday morning to 82% yesterday to 93.1% today. FanGraphs has the Astros at 52-48 to win tomorrow afternoon in Tampa and close it out. Yesterday I said that Game 3 would start at 1:07pm. That was wrong. First pitch is at 12:07pm. 50 teams have taken a 2-0 lead, and 43 of them have won the series. Kevin Kiermaier: We're obviously disappointed down two games to zero. They've just been a little bit better so far. Verlander threw great, Cole was about as dominant as you can get. Our pitchers threw the ball great, they just came up with a few more hits than us.
Gerrit Cole's 15 strikeouts in a postseason game are a franchise record, breaking Mike Scott's record of 14 Ks, which Scott did in Game 1 of the 1986 NLCS. According to MLB Network, Gerrit Cole's 33 swings and misses are an MLB record since they started keeping track of that in 2008. Cole: We've got a lot more work to take care of. There's a few months this winter that maybe we can sit back and have a drink about it. Right now, it's on to the next one.
Hinch: Whether it's about the new-age opener or pulling guys third time through, most of the people that support that haven't had Verlander or Cole on their team. It's hard for me to relate to having to pull guys early or wanting to pull guys early when these guys are putting up these kinds of performances...I'm going to roll with these boys while we have them.
Hinch: He was incredible. It's hard to put into words exactly what his performance meant for us tonight.
*The Rays went 5x45 with 23 strikeouts against Verlander and Cole. Kevin Kiermaier: Good for Jeff Luhnow, or whatever their GM's name is, for acquiring him. Like they needed any more than Verlander and Greinke and all the other guys they have.
*Brian T. Smith: Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher on the planet. Lots of one-word paragraphs and two-word sentences in this.
*Roberto Osuna allowed 2H/1ER, 1K:2BB in 0.2IP and looked terrible when he came back out for the 9th. Hunter Atkins reports that Osuna is not thrilled with the Astros' wanting him to throw more sliders. Context: "I usually throw my fastball a little bit more, then I go to my changeup. I don't believe the slider's my best pitch." That was part of the problem heading into Saturday's game. The Astros wanted Osuna to prepare to throw Tampa Bay a lot of sliders, to use it like his best pitch. He was iffy, but he went along with the plan. "That's what really got me upset tonight," Osuna said.
Good article, highly recommended. Hinch, on Osuna: Osuna's our guy. He'll get the ball when he needs to get the ball and when we expect him to get the last three outs. There's always a consideration for just putting the guys out there against the matchups. But I believe in Osuna, and I believe he's the best matchup most of the time.
*Will Harris recorded the save. Harris had six regular season saves since the beginning of 2017. Harris has inherited five baserunners in the last two games and none of them have scored. Harris: It's a long postseason if you're going to win it. You're going to have some ups and downs and you have to win 11 games. We won our first two, but it's not going to be seamless. There's going to be some bumps in the road.
*The Astros have hit a home run in each of their last 27 postseason games, extending a franchise record.
*The Astros went 2x12 w/RISP a day after going 3x9 w/RISP in Game 1. So the Astros are 5x21 w/RISP this series. And are up 2-0.
*Alex Bregman hit his first home run of the postseason.
Bregman, 2017 postseason: .208/.256/.417, 10K:5BB, 4HR.
Bregman, 2018-19 playoffs: .333/.565/.733, 6K:13BB, 3HR.
-Blake Snell (2018 AL Cy Young winner)
-Trevor Bauer (2018 All-Star)
-Corey Kluber (2014, 2017 AL Cy Young)
-Kenley Jansen (3x All-Star)
-Clayton Kershaw (3x NL Cy Young, 2014 NL MVP, 8x All-Star)
-Chris Sale (7x All-Star)
Bregman: The environment that we've played in the last two days here is unmatched. And we love playing in front of these great fans. They know the game of baseball. They have fun. They're passionate.
Alex Bregman:
Oct 5 2019: Go-ahead HR vs TB (ALDS 2)
Oct 5 2018: Go-ahead HR vs CLE (ALDS 1)
Oct 5 2017: Go-ahead HR vs BOS (ALDS 1)
First player in postseason history to hit a go-ahead homer on the same date in three consecutive years.
*George Springer is having a rough one so far. He went 0x4 with a strikeout in Game 2, bringing his ALDS to 0x8. The last time he had back-to-back hitless games in the postseason was ALCS Games 1-2. He had a hit in every single postseason game in 2018.
*Yordan Alvarez was 2x4, as was Carlos Correa. Martin Maldonado was 2x3 with an RBI.
*As much as Girardi and Pierzynski (I don't even know who the play-by-play guy is because he says maybe ten words all game) wanted The Stool to be a controversy, it wasn't. Hinch: I don't blame [the ball boy]. That's unlucky more than bad. I think he tried to take a swipe at it. That ball's coming in pretty hot. A little unlucky on our part. I wish it would have gone through the gap there or gotten down into the corner, and I think Tuck scores. It was a great hit and run by Martin [Maldonado]. But we got a little unlucky. *Chandler Rome: How an early-September talk with A.J. Hinch turned Kyle Tucker's motor on. Hinch: We talked to him about it when he first got here, and I think he wants no part of the reputation of being a low-motor or an aloof type player. He's taken it to heart and is paying with the urgency that we want.
*Richard Justice: The Astros are proof that starting pitching still matters. Verlander: I feel like, if I did my job as a starting pitcher throughout the season, that our bullpen should be fresh and ready to thrive. I know what you're asking because I have an old-school mentality.
*Jenny Dial Creech: Uncle Mike brings smiles to the clubhouse. Hinch: [Brantley is] extremely valuable in all aspects of our team. He's a balanced person. He's a balanced player. He posts every day. I think he's a great influence for our guys. I think he's really found a way to lead without being the most vocal guy, and people still look at him.
*Hinch, on the Astros' aggressiveness on the basepath: I like pressure. I like making them make plays. And that comes with a little bit of risk. And [Friday], when it works out for us, it's great...But 90 feet matters. If you can steal it, all the better.
*The Rays got Verlandered and an Altuve homer and a chokejob from the Rays' defense to take a 1-0 series lead. Houston now needs to go no worse than 2-2 to advance to the ALCS.
*The Astros came in to 2019 ALDS G1 as 69.5% favorites to win the Series, according to FanGraphs. That has now moved to 82-18. Houston's Win Probability tonight is 66.1%. Tonight's starter for Tampa Bay - Blake Snell - is about three weeks removed from his return from arthroscopic elbow surgery, and is likely to have as long a leash as Glasnow had.
*The last team to lose a Division Series after winning Game 1 was the 2017 Cleveland Indians. Three of the four Division Series in 2015 featured a Game 1 winner that ultimately lost the series). Overall, 27 out of 36 Game 1 winners (75.0%) since 2010 went on to win the Division Series. Bregman: I think we've got a lot of work left to do, but it was a great start. Verlander came out and did a great job. Altuve had a big swing to get us on the board and break the ice. I think it's going to be a fun series, and we've got a lot of work cut out for us.
*Hinch: I think we're comfortable with what we do in big moments. I think we've been that way. If you look at our players, the pulse, the heartbeat, we have it.
*Verlander: 7IP, 1H/0ER, 8K:3BB. His three walks were the most he's issued since June 29. He has two or fewer walks in 19 of his 26 postseason starts. It's the 11th time in his career that he's thrown 7IP in the postseason. His teams are 9-2 when that happens, and the two losses were both 1-0 losses with Detroit in the 2013 postseason. Hinch: He's got an incredible instinct for the moment. He leaves some gas in his gas tank at the end of his outings...like a good sprinter, like at the finish line, he's going to win. He's going to win the race at the end of his outings.
For me, the best thing that happened to Verlander yesterday was allowing the soft hit to Brandon Lowe in the 5th, because it removed any pressure of a no-hitter. Verlander came out after 100 pitches, and would likely be on track for a G4 start, if necessary, rather than have a no-hitter at 100 pitches and going back out for the 8th to try to get it.
Verlander, since the All-Star Break (including yesterday's game): 103.1IP, 62H/22ER, 155K:18BB. 1.92 ERA / 0.77 WHIP.
Verlander is ranked 3rd all-time in postseason strikeouts, passing Roger Clemens yesterday. His 14 postseason wins are tied with Tom Glavine for 3rd all-time.
*Pressly: 0.2IP, 4H/2ER, 0K:0BB. Didn't look great, but didn't get straight up knocked around. Exit Velocities on Pressly's hits allowed:
Single to Tommy Pham: 26.2 mph
Single to Eric Sogard: 90.0 mph
Single to Joey Wendle: 96.6 mph
Double to Austin Meadows: 101.6 mph
*Jose Altuve homered in his third straight G1. He has homered against the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Indians, and Rays in the postseason in his career. Houston is 7-0 in the postseason when Altuve hits a home run. Correa, on Altuve: Unbelievable. [Altuve] told me before the game...'Hey, I've hit a homer in the first game of the last two postseasons. So I'm gonna make it three today,' and he did. When he tells me, I believe him. It doesn't surprise me.
Altuve: Glasnow was throwing so good through the game. His fastball was almost invisible. I was not looking for one specific pitch. I was just looking up and I got lucky. He threw it there and I could hit it.
*Brantley: 2x4, 1K. Brantley had the hardest-hit ball that didn't actually get down for a hit when he lined out in the 1st on a 103.6 mph shot off the bat.
*Correa: 1x4, 3K. It looked like Correa was trying to get his timing down more than he was trying to have productive ABs. Jenny Dial Creech: A healthy Carlos Correa is a happy Carlos Correa.
*Correa-Chirinos-Reddick: 2x10, 6K:2BB.
*The Astros had three stolen bases in the game (Springer, Bregman, Gurriel). They stole one base in the entire 2018 postseason. They stole three bases in a game four times in the 2019 regular season - but two of those were in September (Sept 6, Sept 14). Hinch: It was part of our strategy today. We felt like if we could put some pressure on them in opportune times, we were going to be able to manufacture some runs too. This is not a pitching staff that you're just going to ambush and get away with it.
*On Gurriel's pop-up that landed between Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows, both rested blame partially at the feet of Astros fans. Meadows: It was tough to hear anything in general.
*The Ringer: The Astros have brought the Murderers Row lineup back to baseball.
*The Astros included both Jose Urquidy and Wade Miley on the ALDS roster, leaving off Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock. Hinch: The two toughest ones for me were Devo and Peacock. Those guys both pitched in the World Series for us. They both are tremendous individuals, and both are all on board and deserving to be on playoff rosters. It's a depth luxury more than an indictment of them not being capable to handle the responsibility of being on there.
*A few links in The Athletic worth your time:
-Andy McCullough on Gerrit Cole. Cole: [In the game] I don't need analytical help. I need feel. I need, like, 'Hey did you see the way that guy stepped out of the box and reacted to that pitch? Or 'Hey, you really f*****d that guy up.'
-Jake Kaplan on Hinch's midseason move to drop Bregman from 3rd to 4th, sandwiching him between two lefties in Brantley and Alvarez, and how it paid off yesterday. Hinch: That's the real dilemma for the other side. 'Do you want to save your lefty for Brantley?' or 'Do you want to save it for Alvarez?' and you've got MVP right in the middle of it.
-Jayson Stark on Verlander: Twenty and three! You know what that is? That's his record, since he pulled deep into the heart of Houston, Texas, in games played in September and October... ...If Verlander wins any more games in this postseason - which would seem like a definite possibility - he would become the first pitcher to win more than 20 September/October games over a three-year span since (ready?) Grover Cleveland Alexander won 25 for the 1915-17 Phillies, in slightly different times.
*Outside: The essential post-run stretching routine to keep you injury-free. Side note: I was training to run a marathon in January. Two weeks of a sinus infection and bronchitis (and, let's be honest, postseason stress-hydrating) has delayed that a little bit.
*Mental Floss: The best sleeping position, according to experts.
*Deadspin: Inside TheMaven's plan to turn Sports Illustrated into a rickety content mill.
*Allow me to apologize for numerous inaccuracies in yesterday morning's Hot Links. It was a mess. I was trying to do two or three things two nights ago, and didn't do any of them particularly well.
It's Game 1 Day! Since 2015 the Astros are 3-0 in ALDS G1s (2015 Royals, 2017 Red Sox, 2018 Indians). G1 Starters in the aforementioned games? Keuchel, Verlander, Verlander. Verlander goes today.
*Since 2012 the home team has won 9 of the last 14 ALDS. The exceptions:
-2018 Yankees lost in five games to Cleveland.
-2016 Ramgers got swept by Toronto
-2014 Angels got swept by the Royals.
-2013 A's lost in five games to the Tigers.
-2012 A's lost in five games to the Tigers.
There's a Verlander theme running here.
*There have been 15 100-win teams in MLB since the beginning of the 1998 season:
-1998 Yankees (114-46): Won WS
-1998 Braves (106-56): Lost in NLCS
-1998 Astros (102-60): Freaking Padres
-2002 Yankees (103-59): Lost WS to Anaheim
-2002 A's (103-59): Lost ALDS to New York
-2002 Braves (101-61): Lost NLDS to San Francisco
-2003 Yankees (101-61): Lost WS to Florida
-2003 Braves (101-61): Lost NLDS to Chicago
-2003 Giants (100-62): Lost NLDS to Florida
-2017 Dodgers (104-58): Lost WS to Houston
-2017 Indians (102-60): Lost ALDS to New York
-2017 Astros (101-61): Won WS
-2018 Red Sox (108-54): Won WS
-2018 Yankees (100-62): Lost ALDS to Red Sox
-2018 Astros (103-59): Lost ALCS to Red Sox
*FanGraphs has the math behind the matchups (and is a very good read): In short, the Astros have baseball's best rotation, most patient lineup, best contact hitters, and arguably more pop than anyone else. They have no holes, and they will be favorites in every series the play from here on out. Our new ZiPS game-by-game odds give Houston a 69.5% chance of winning the series - the highest percentage in any first round matchup.
*FiveThirtyEight gives the Astros a 71-29 edge in Game 1. Also favored today: St. Louis, New York, Los Angeles.
*Carlos Correa says he feels great. Correa: It's tough, but between [missing] four or five games in the regular season and being able to play in the playoffs, obviously I'll pick the playoffs. I feel great right now. My back feels really good. I had no issues at all during these three workouts. I'm very happy I get to play with my teammates and perform for my city.
*Good news! Yordan is "excited" for the playoffs! Yordan: I'm excited, but this is normal. This is baseball. I'm going to just continue to do the same work as I did during the regular season and keep doing that. Keep doing that, Yordan.
*Jake Kaplan has a piece regarding the age-defying Yuli Gurriel. Gerrit Cole, on Gurriel: He's really been incredible. It's pretty fascinating to watch, especially because he's not even in the three-hole. Most people's third hitters are putting up those types of numbers, if they are.
*The Astros - as of 5:44am on Friday - have yet to announce their ALDS roster as "coming down to the wire." Miley, on coming out of the bullpen: I would be completely fine with anything to try to go out and help the team. I know everyone's made a big deal out of the last month. It was a pretty ugly month. It is what it is. It's baseball. But, at the same time, I think I can help this club.
*Verlander: Playoffs is a different animal. If you don't have it that given day, you don't have that leash that you normally have in the regular season to log some more innings. The games can get away from you quickly. I'm OK with that.
*If the Astros re-sign Gerrit Cole and payroll is $227m (over the Luxury Tax Competitive Balance Tax, but below the next tier of penalties), the Astros would have to pay a (measly) $3.8m tax before slipping back under the CBT in 2021.
