Ready for a break from the gah dang Houston Astros? TOO BAD. There's news.
*There's a Press Conference today at 11am at Minute Maid Park, presumably to announce the retirement of Dusty Baker. Last night I wrote up some thoughts about Dusty Baker's tenure with the Astros, and ended with a Barry Switzer quote in reference to Jim Crane, which was predictably (and this is likely some fault of my own, since I was very tired and just wanted to go to bed and didn't explain it very well) misinterpreted. The "he was born on third base and thought he hit a triple" has nothing to do with Jim Crane's net worth. It has everything to do with Jim Crane tried to "do the off-season" by himself, or at least with the help of Jeff Bagwell and/or Reggie Jackson, forgetting that it was Teh Nerds who turned the Astros into an absolute powerhouse, and the increasing likelihood that the next few hires (manager, President of Baseball Ops?) will simply do what Jim Crane wants, and not what The Spreadsheets 'n' Formulas say. That's all I meant by that. I'm not going back and changing it.
*Chandler Rome has 12 names to keep an eye on as the next Astros manager. Click the link and subscribe The Athletic for the full write-up, because it's a pretty good value, but here are the 12 names:
Brad Ausmus (who interviewed to be the GM before Crane hired Dana Brown), Craig Counsell, Joe Espada, Mark Kotsay (who previously interviewed before the Astros landed Dusty), Rodney Linares (former Astros minor-league manager), Omar Lopez, Joe Maddon, Don Mattingly, Buck Showalter, Will Venable, Walt Weiss, and Eric Young.
Based on personal preference alone, I'm striking Ausmus, Kotsay, Maddon, and Showalter from consideration. Joe Espada has been the manager-in-waiting for so long you could be accused of thinking Will Muschamp was the Astros' bench coach, so I'd like to see him be rewarded for his loyalty. Love the idea of bringing in Rodney Linares, who has worked under Kevin Cash in Tampa as well as spending a generation in the Astros' organization managing pretty much every homegrown star currently on the roster. I'm still pissed about 1999 NLDS Game 3 when it comes to Walt Weiss (obligatory "I Was There" tweet).
The Mets have asked for, and received, permission to talk to Craig Counsell. Remember Former Astros & Brewers Great David Stearns is now running the show in Queens. Cleveland has asked, as well.
*Sports Illustrated notes the possibility of Joe Girardi managing the Astros. And also adds Six Flags' Offensive Coordinator Donnie Ecker, and Ron Washington.
*Ben Verlander: The Astros' dynasty isn't over, but they need to take a hard look in the mirror.
*The Astros claimed reliever Oliver Ortega off waivers from the Twins. Ortega just turned 27 and has 58IP under his belt with the Angels and Twins with a career 4.03 ERA / 1.41 WHIP. He made ten appearances for the 2023 Twins and enjoyed scoreless outings in seven of them. Statcast notes that he has an arsenal of five pitches (though he really only uses four), and his four-seam fastball averages 95.3mph with a 95.7mph sinker (!).
*Richard Justice: A High School Football Fairy Tale Is Unfolding in Willis.
The Astros continue to insist on not being a serious team, losing yet again - this time 10-8 - to the 48-101 Royals. 4.2% of the 2023 Royals season wins have come in the last two days against the so-called "defending World Series champion Astros." Seems to me like the Astros aren't defending anything.
*For the second day in a row every single AL West team lost, so I guess there's no harm no foul? Sure would have been nice to, you know, beat one of the two worst teams in the league and extend this lead. Houston has lost four of their last five, and five of their last eight games.
*The Astros are now 1-4 against the A's and Royals in September, two teams who are a combined 94-203, getting outscored 26-18 in the process.
*The Royals came into the night with the 2nd-fewest walks of any American League team, and the 3rd-worst OBP in the AL. So of course the Astros walked them six times - just the 10th time the Royals have taken six walks in a single game this season.
*Houston pitchers managed to only strike out one Royal (and it was by Joel Kuhnel, who did it with two outs in the 9th. The last time Houston only struck out one batter in a game was September 10, 2020.
*Kansas City is now 6-30 when they give up eight runs in a game. The Astros are now 29-3 when scoring eight runs in a game.
*Pitching was freaking terrible.
J.P. France: 4.1IP, 5H/5ER, 0K:4BB.
Bullpen: 4.2IP, 5H/5R (2ER), 1K:2BB.
There were three unearned runs thanks to errors from Pena and Bregman - the 14th error of the season for each of them, and Rafael Montero walked in a run. Just a cursed game from start to finish. Bregman:
We've got a small lead in the division but we need to play better baseball. It starts with me. I need to make that play today. We need to execute better.
Dusty:
The leadoff walks really hurt us. And with a team that has speed and runs as much as they do, when you walk them, you're asking for trouble. We had some real big hits, but it was the leadoff walks and a couple of errors, and we opened the gates for them, and they walked through.
The Astros walked the leadoff batter in three of the nine innings, and each leadoff walk came around to score. Again, the Royals have drawn the second-fewest walks in Major League Baseball and have the 5th-worst OPS among the 30 teams.
*France's last three starts: 15.1IP, 15H/11ER, 10K:12BB, 4HR, a 6.46 ERA (7.69 FIP). He had walked 12 batters in his previous seven starts dating back to July 25. France:
Yeah, they were frustrating. But I mean, the word I keep using for that outing was just 'unbelievable.' They didn't chase a whole lot. But the stuff they did chase somehow found grass. I had one hit that was three balls off the plate, I had one that was three balls down. So yeah, I just couldn't get swings and misses for some reason.
I guess France didn't allow a home run, so that's nice. It was the first time since August 12 that France hadn't allowed a dinger.
*Having tied the game at 6-6 thanks to Jose Altuve's welcome arrival to this week, Hector Neris: 1IP, 2H/3R (1ER), 0K:1BB - the first runs he'd allowed since August 19. His three runs allowed (though two were unearned) are a season-high, at the worst possible time. Neris has a 1.93 ERA but a 4.05 FIP.
*The run that Joel Kuhnel allowed in the 9th snapped a little four-outing scoreless streak he had working in September.
*Shoutout to the top of the lineup, who remembered that the Astros need to win these games. Altuve-Bregman-Alvarez went a combined 7x14 with 6RBI - three of them came on Jose Altuve's 17th home run of the year.
Number of seasons with 20+ HR, playing 90% of their games at 2B:
*The 5-6 hitters (Abreu-McCormick) were the only batters in the lineup without a hit, combining to "go" 0x8 with 4K:2BB. I have no idea why Jose Abreu is hitting 5th. 108 batters have received 500+ Plate Appearances. Abreu's -1.0 fWAR ranks 108th. There are only two other batters with that many PAs and a negative fWAR and guess fking what: they play for the gd Kansas City Royals (MJ Melendez and Sal Parez...who combined to go 2x6 with 3RBI last night).
Abreu's ranks among 108 batters with 500 PAs:
fWar: -1.0 (108th)
BA: .235 (T-94th)
OBP: .295 (103rd)
SLG: .365 (104th)
wRC+: 82 (105th)
Abreu hitting 5th is about five spots too high.
*Chas McCormick's last eight games: 3x23, 8K:1BB, .130/.167/.130.
*Kyle Tucker, September: .200/.305/.380.
*The Astros are auctioning off items from last night's salute to the Negro Leagues, all benefiting the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.
*Framber Valdez takes on Former Astros Great Jordan Lyles today. 111 pitchers have thrown at least 100IP, and Lyles' 6.44 ERA is 110th. So I'm assuming a CGSHO is on the cards. Lyles has faced the Astros eight times in his career and is 2-2 with a career 3.98 ERA.
*And so Shohei Ohtani's season - and likely his tenure with the cursed Angels - is done. In six seasons (including 2020) with the Angels, Ohtani hit .274/.366/.556 with 171 homers, three All-Star selections, a Rookie of the Year Award, an MVP award (and a 2nd place finish, as well), and a Top 5 Cy Young nod. As a pitcher, he went 38-19 with a 3.01 ERA. Ohtani was worth 19.9 fWAR as a hitter and 11.8 fWAR as a pitcher, for 31.7 fWAR. They paid him $39.7m. In the same time span, Mike Trout posted a 31.5 fWAR, meaning the Angels got 63.2 fWAR from two players since 2018.
Yet in those six seasons (well, five seasons and a Mickey Mouse season with a Mickey Mouse World Series) the Angels have gone 368-461 (a .444 winning percentage). They never had a winning season. They never finished higher than 3rd in the AL West. Just a completely criminally mismanaged franchise, and I hope it continues forever and ever.
*Longest streak of winning their respective division, team history, 1961-present (to weed out all those New York years where the commissioner(s) operated in franchise mode to help the Yankees win):
11: Atlanta (1995-2005)
9: New York Yankees (1998-2006)
8: Los Angeles (2013-2020)
5: Philadelphia (2007-2011); Cleveland (1995-1999); Oakland (1971-1975)
4: Detroit (2011-2014)
3: Boston (2016-2018); Houston (2017-2019; 1997-1999); St. Louis (2013-2015; 2004-2006); Anaheim (2007-2009); Minnesota (2002-2004); Toronto (1991-1993); Pittsburgh (1990-1992; 1970-1972); Kansas City (1976-1978); Baltimore (1969-1971)
2: Tampa (2020-2021); Washington (2016-2017); Rockwall (2015-2016; 2010-2011; 1998-1999); Chicago Cubs (2016-2017; 2007-2008); San Diego (2005-2006); Arizona (2001-2002); Chicago White Sox (1993-1994); Milwaukee (1981-1982); Cincinnati (1975-1976; 1972-1973)
1: San Francisco (2021, 2012, 2010, 2003, 2000, 1997, 1989, 1987, 1971, 1962); Seattle (1995, 1997, 2001); New York Mets (1969, 1973, 1986, 1988, 2006, 2015)
I do indeed hope you enjoyed a few days without the Astros jellydicking around. I know I did. I'm posting these now so I don't have to worry about it tomorrow morning. The Astros start the second half of the season tomorrow night in Anaheim against Future Astros Great Shohei Ohtani.
*Playoff Odds:
FanGraphs: 43.2% to win division, 66.1% to make postseason.
*When can the Astros catch the Rangers for the division lead? The Astros start the second half with nine road games before coming back home to play Upper Mansfield: three at Anaheim, two at Colorado, and four at Oakland. The Astros are 13-2 against those three teams in 2023.
The Ramgers also have nine games, all of them at home, before coming to Minute Maid Park: three vs Cleveland, three vs Tampa, and three vs the Dodgers. They lost a three-game series against Tampa already, but haven't played Cleveland or LA - who are both lead their respective divisions.
But to go up in the division, the Astros have to be three games better than the Rangers in the next nine games. So if the Rangers go 4-5, the Astros have to go 7-2 (this seems simple, but just making sure everyone understands the maths). It's hard to make up three games in nine games, unless of course you're trying to catch the 2007 Mets lol.
*The 2024 season schedule has been released, and the Astros host the Yankees to start the 2024 campaign. They'll also play a series against the Rockies in Mexico City.
*FanGraphs: Jay Jaffe's Cooperstown Notebook still gives Altuve a good shot at making the HOF.
The Astros took the Cardinals to the woodshed in a 14-0 win to improve to 44-37. Houston is five games back of West Balch Springs. After losing five straight games, the Astros are 5-3 in their last eight games.
*Astros' record after 81 games:
2023: 44-37
2022: 53-28
2021: 48-33
2019: 50-31
2018: 53-28
2017: 54-27
2016: 43-38
2015: 47-34
2014: 35-46
2013: 30-51
2012: 32-49
2011: 28-53
*Houston carried over Framber, Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Javier from the 2022 rotation. Combined they threw 671.2IP out of the 950IP thrown by Astros starters (70.7%). This year those four have combined to throw 246.2IP out of the 460.1IP thrown by Astros starters (53.4%).
*The Astros won their first game after scoring 10+ runs of the season.
*The last time the Astros scored 10+ runs in consecutive games was September 20-21, 2021 against Anaheim.
*Houston scored the last 19 runs of the series against the Cardinals.
*It was the Astros' 5th shutout of the season.
*Houston had 26 batters reach base (18 hits + 8 walks) - the most since August 18, 2022 when the Astros got 25 hits and four walks against the White Sox.
*Let's start with J.P. France. France threw 7IP, 4H/0ER, 2K:2BB. You have to go back to his MLB debut on May 6 to find the last time he threw a shutout appearance. France's last five starts: 5 Quality Starts, 33.1IP, 26H/9ER, 18K:12BB, 2.43 ERA/1.14 WHIP.
*Rafael Montero threw 2IP, 0H/0ER, 1K:0BB - his first clean outing since June 8, and his first 2+ IP clean outing since May 19, 2021.
*Alex Bregman was 3x5 with 0K:1BB, and a grand slam - his 3rd grand slam in June (three of his last five homers have been grannies.) Bregman since May 8 (46 games): .290/.364/.475, 27K:21BB, 8HR/38RBI. He's hitting over .250 for the first time since June 5. It was his third 4RBI game of the season, and all have been since June 3.
Grand Slams, Astros history:
1. Jose Altuve, Carlos Lee, Alex Bregman: 7
2. Jeff Bagwell: 6
3. Yuli Gurriel, George Springer, Lance Berkman: 5
I think the last couple of days we've been putting good at-bats together, stringing them together all day long. I think the last few days have been really good and let's keep it rolling.
*Kyle Tucker was 2x3 with 1K:1BB, HR/5RBI. He has a six-game hitting streak and is 6x8 with two doubles, a homer, and 6RBI in the last two games. It's the second 5+ RBI game of his career, his most in a single game since May 17, 2022 (6RBI vs Boston).
*Jose Abreu was 1x3 with a double, walk and 2RBI. In his last five games, Abreu is 8x20 with four extra-base hits (two doubles, two homers), 2K:1BB.
*Yainer Diaz was 3x6 with two doubles - his 3rd 3+ hit game in June. Diaz, May 30-June 29: .317/.321/.634.
*Corey Julks was 3x5 with a walk - the first time in his career he's been on base four times in a game.
*Jose Altuve's two runs scored moved him into a tie for 3rd place in Astros history with Lance Berkman, at 1,008. Only 509 more to catch Jeff Bagwell.
*Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright didn't make it out of the second inning. His last two starts: 4.2IP, 17H/13ER, 1K:4BB. It was his shortest outing since June 17, 2017.
*McTaggart: This upcoming series in Arlington is crucial.
*Evan Grant: The Rangers shouldn't get comfortable after their first half.
*Both Framber and Javier's next scheduled starts are listed as "TBA," which is um not a good sign.
*Jose Urquidy and Michael Brantley could face each other in live BP soon. The only way that ends is in a broken bat comebacker that impales Brantley and hits Urquidy in the mouth.
*Ken Rosenthal: The Astros are open to trading an outfielder. I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that it's Chas McCormick, who has managed to get just 167 PAs despite a career-high 117 wRC+. Rosenthal notes that the Yankees have had previous interest in Chas.
Dana Brown:
I have zero interest in selling, zero.
*AstrosFuture: Former prospect Bryan Muniz has transitioned into a hitting coach.
But at 3:02pm Mark Berman reported the Astros had agreed to a 2yr/$32m deal with Brantley, precisely the contract he signed before the 2019 season. McTaggart notes that the deal isn't finalized just yet.
Been a while, yeah? Because nothing - Astros-wise, anyway - is happening. Well that changed a little bit yesterday. A shame, really, I had gotten used to not having to think about the Astros.
*The deadline to settle arbitration cases was yesterday and the Astros could not come to an agreement with Carlos Correa, and so they will head to a hearing. Correa wanted $12.5m, the Astros offered $9.75m. That's quite a gap.
I do not understand this decision. Let's recap what has happened since October 2019:
1. Brandon Taubman popped off at some reporters about domestic violence, getting himself fired in the process.
2. The Astros lost every home game of the World Series.
3. The Mike Fiers story dropped, which resulted in Luhnow and Hinch getting fired and the Astros becoming the most hated single team in Baseball since 1919.
4. COVID-19.
And through all of that, Correa became the face of the franchise, standing up for his teammates and bearing that burden to the public, allowing guys like Altuve and Bregman to sit back in the shadows (as much as that is possible, anyway). And you can't come up with the extra $2.75m to pay him? He is going to be a free agent at the end of the 2021 season, you think maybe, if you want a little goodwill in the negotiations with the best shortstop in franchise history?
*FanGraphs' WAR, Astros shortstops:
1. Correa: 19.4
2. Dickie MF Thon: 14.3
3. Adam Everett: 9.2
In 45 fewer games than the man largely considered to be the best defensive shortstop in franchise history, Correa has put up 10.2 more fWAR. Since he came into the league in 2015 - even given the injury-shortened seasons - Correa has the 5th most fWAR among shortstops, in more than 150 fewer games than three of the four players ahead of him. I know baseball economics are allegedly what they are in a pandemic/post-pandemic scenario, but it's also important to never believe a billionaire when they cry poor. I could have stopped that sentence after "billionaire." And so, now, approximately ten months before he's set to become a free agent in his Age 26 season, the Astros will go before a panel and tell Correa that he's not worth as much as he thinks he is. Seems real smart. Click:
We have nothing but the utmost respect for Carlos and his group. Again, I can't emphasize this enough: I think they came very well prepared and I think we were very well prepared, but we just see different things in the market and that's why the system is there to help us resolve those.
*In the last couple of weeks, the Astros have added veterans Ryne Sandberg Stanek and Pedro Baez to the bullpen. The back four of the bullpen will be Stanek, Baez, Joe Smith, and Ryan Pressly. Click that link and McTaggart will tell you the Astros are engaged on Brad Hand, Alex Colome, and Trevor Rosenthal. So obviously, the Astros are trying to shore up their bullpen and will just get to the 2/3 of the outfield that is apparently missing, exiled to Weiland Island. Click, on Springer/Brantley:
Those two guys are very special to this franchise and we will continue to have conversations, but we're, like I've said, gonna go where the market dictates sometimes, and something we are gonna push the market and make it come to us.
This is an excellent example of saying something and it's full of nothing at all.
*I totally missed the rumor that the Astros are interested in Joakim Soria, who at this point just must be 52 years old.
*Houston signed 22-year old Cuban OF Pedro Leon to a $4m signing bonus, in a long-rumored move. Click:
He's a special talent. He has all five tools, and a sixth one if you count just how good he is at the game of baseball from an instincts perspective - tremendous off-field guy. There's just not enough good things that we can say about him.
Click said how quickly he rises through the system depends on Leon, but they're not planning on him immediately replacing Brantley or Springer.
*The Tri-City ValleyCats, formerly of the historic New York-Penn League, have sued the Astros for lost revenue over the minor-league contraction/restructuring that got rammed through by Soulless Ghoul Rob Manfred (for a non-paywalled link, click here). The complaint:
MLB's intimidation tactics, which it used to pit MiLB teams against each other for the 'privilege' of not having their businesses destroyed, has gone on for years but was most vividly demonstrated by a May 2020 email in which Commissioner Rob Manfred emailed the ValleyCats' owner condolences on the passing of his father, and then in the very same email, issued a veiled threat that any public statement made about MLB's contraction efforts would be 'unwise.'
MLB is arguing that it wasn't really a threat, and there's nuance that is missing. Actively trying to remember why I even care about this sport.
*FanGraphs' Jay Jaffe has been a long-time student/scholar of the workings of the Baseball Hall of Fame. This year he was finally able to cast a ballot for real.
*I have no idea why I did this, but I figured up how each team's record and win% stand up from 2010-2020. The results are as follows (World Series winners in italics):
AL East
New York: 954-726 (.568)
Tampa Bay: 900-781 (.535)
Boston: 896-784 (.533)
Toronto: 826-854 (.492)
Baltimore: 780-900 (.464)
AL Central
Cleveland: 890-788 (.530)
Detroit: 805-870 (.481)
Minnesota: 801-879 (.477)
Kansas City: 784-896 (.467)
Chicago: 778-901 (.463)
AL West
Oakland: 875-805 (.521)
Arlington: 865-816 (.515)
Anaheim: 848-832 (.505)
Houston: 818-862 (.486)
Seattle: 785-895 (.467)
NL East
Washington: 905-774 (.539)
Atlanta: 878-801 (.523)
Philadelphia: 815-865 (.485)
New York: 819-861 (.488)
Miami: 738-940 (.440)
NL Central
St. Louis: 929-749 (.554)
Milwaukee: 853-828 (.507)
Chicago: 851-829 (.507)
Pittsburgh: 811-867 (.483)
Cincinnati: 806-874 (.480)
NL West
Los Angeles: 962-718 (.573)
San Francisco: 850-830 (.506)
Arizona: 818-862 (.487)
Colorado: 778-903 (.463)
San Diego: 776-904 (.462)
*The Cubs are "actively shopping" catcher Willson Contreras. In five seasons with the Cubs, Contreras has hit .265/.351/.463 and has thrown out 32% of would-be base-stealers.
*MLB.com's Mark Feinsand is reporting that the Astros and Former Astros Great Jason Castro are "in serious talks" and a deal could be completed soon.
It's kind of hard to believe but Castro, the Astros' 1st Round pick (10th overall) in 2008 will be in his Age 34 season in 2021. He's a career .230/.312/.390 hitter and, in 452 games from 2015-2020 has hit .218/.309/.380 for the Astros/Twins/Angels/Padres. Defensively, I guess it's fine, but this obviously means the Astros don't think all that much of Garrett Stubbs while it also doesn't address the Astros' most-glaring needs in the outfield and on the pitching staff. It's just...weird.
*The Astros agreed to a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training with 25-year old outfielder Jose Siri. In 594 minor-league games, Siri has hit .264/.313/.447 with 675K:147BB, reaching Triple-A for 30 games in 2019. As Astros.com notes, Siri was a Top-10 prospect for the Reds in 2018 and 2019 but was claimed off waivers twice in 2020, ending the year in the Giants' organization. He's hitting .281 in the Dominican Winter League right now.
*SI lists Jose Altuve as one of the MLB stars looking for a bounce-back season in 2021.
*Current Leeds United Legend Marcelo Bielsa went on a 41-minute rant to explain how Leeds were better than Manchester United, despite United blasting the hell out of Leeds 6-2 on Sunday. Leeds are currently at 8% to get relegated.
It is Tuesday, December 15. Not much is happening [in the world of baseball, everywhere else, everything is happening all at once], but let's see what there is to see:
*Dusty Baker got on a Zoom call with reporters and said the team is looking for bullpen depth and rotation help for 2021 and beyond. Dusty:
We're talking to some people now. You know, there hadn't been a bunch of movement, not a bunch of players signing, but I imagine the next couple of weeks there will be more movement, and once some of the big boys - so-called big boys - get signed, then everybody else will probably check to see how the market is.
It depends on how I feel. Depends on how the team feels about me. You never know what changes could come about in life.
*Brian McTaggart ranked the five best seasons by an Astros pitcher. SMH at the disrespect for Travis Blackley's 2013 season. 1986 Mike Scott got the nod for the Astros' best individual pitching season.
*Here's a nice little update on Astros' #4 prospect Jeremy Pena (2018 - 3rd Round) and how he's killing it in the Dominican League.
*Yankees President Randy Levine didn't even finish his opening statement in arguing against the release of the so-called Yankees Letter before getting interrupted by Judge Gerald Lynch. The attorney for DraftKings, who is filing suit, David Golub:
The letter establishes when electronic sign stealing first occurred. That's a factual issue in the case, when did it start. The letter also establishes this was denied by Major League Baseball, and it's actually denied by the Red Sox in their brief, that Major League Baseball would ever conceal anything about electronic sign stealing.
*A couple of personal things: I had a very enjoyable chat with Keith Law about writing, reading, James Click, Cristian Javier, Forrest Whitley, and the Houston Astros. And I did a deep dive on the 1856 Caning of Charles Sumner, or when a member of the House of Representatives beat the absolute dog piss out of Senator Charles Sumner.
So the Winter Zoom Meetings came to an end on Thursday. The Astros lost Jose Alberto Rivera to the Angels in the Rule 5 Draft, as well as outfielder Drew Ferguson to the Mets and catcher Chuckie Robinson to the Reds in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
Rivera will be 24 in 2021 and is coming off a 2019 season in which he threw 75.2IP, 61H/32ER, 95K:36BB, but is most notable for throwing 102mph. He has to stick on the Angels' active roster for the whole season or be returned to the Astros. Prior to 2020, I would not have thought it possible to make it on an MLB roster for the entire season after having never been above Low-A. But who knows. The Angels paid $100,000 for Rivera, and if he gets DFA'd or sent to the minors, the Astros have the opportunity to get him back for $50,000. James Click said the Rule 5 rules mean that there's a good chance they get him back, and they needed the 40-Man Roster flexibility:
If we've added Rivera, we'd obviously be down to one [roster spot], and we've got quite a few holes on the roster to be filled. So we anticipate additional roster changes over the course of the season and had to balance the need for those roster spots over the next couple months with the ability to protect a player like that.
Ferguson was the Astros' 19th Round pick in the 2015 Draft and hit .281/.395/.440 at Round Rock in 2019. Chuckie Robinson was the Astros' 24th Round pick in the 2016 Draft and hit .217/.276/.324 at Corpus in 2019.
The Astros also picked up pitcher Joe Record in the Minor-League Phase of the draft, and pitcher Seth Martinez. Record was the Twins' 27th Round pick in 2017. He threw 55IP in 2019 - his professional debut - between Low-A and High-A, posting a 5.07 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with 68K:16BB.
Martinez, 26, was Oakland's 17th Round pick in 2016. In 2019 Martinez threw 71.2IP, 50H/20ER, 74K:18BB, 2.51 ERA/0.95 WHIP.
If immediately we have not addressed some of the areas that we have identified as needs, that doesn't mean we're not looking to do that later in the offseason. We're going to have that patience and make sure that we wait until we get to Spring Training - or maybe even a little bit into Spring Training based on previous winters - to assess this roster and how this offseason has gone.
He also said the Astros are still engaged in talks with representatives for both George Springer and Michael Brantley. Click here for McTaggart's un-paywalled version of the Click conversation.
Adding Realmuto to an infield that includes Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve could be a masterstroke, particularly if a lack of competing offers suppresses Realmuto's contract requirements.
He also predicts Springer to the Mets for 5yrs/$110m.
*If you look at FanGraphs' Depth Charts for 2021, you see the Astros are projected for a .545 win% - 88-74 - or the 3rd-best record in MLB (and the top team in the AL). I don't know how FanGraphs is doing this, but I'm not going to question it.
*An Italian man had an argument with his wife and then walked 280 miles to "clear his head."
*"Xmas or Bust:" The Untold Story of National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation.
*Leeds United v West Ham at 2pm Central Friday.
*A pre-Musical Selection: I'm obsessed with Kent Nishimura's YouTube channel:
*The Musical Selection for today, which came from a movie my kid watch a few weeks ago, and hasn't been out of my head since. So you can have this happen to you:
*The Astros and Rangers are checking in on catcher and Former Astros Great Jason Castro, according to Jon Morosi.
*The Rule 5 Draft is today, because the Winter Meetings would have - in any other year - been this week. I guess the Winter Meetings still happened, but, like, all on Zoom. And I guarantee you the Mets talked for at least 90 seconds on Zoom before having to be told that their mic was muted. The Astros have the 15th pick in the Rule 5 Draft.
*MLB.com's Must-Watch Topic for the Astros is whether or not they can re-sign Springer. "Can" they, and "Will" they, or "Does Springer even want to stay in Houston?" are also other ways to ask that question. The Mets are "engaged" with George Springer.
*Will Leitch has Jose Altuve as the Astros' prime bounce-back candidate in 2021.
*As Major League Baseball continues its full-frontal assault on the fabric of the sport itself, the Astros announced their minor-league affiliates for 2021 and beyond: Sugar Land (Triple-A), Corpus (Double-A), adding Asheville (High-A), which is replacing Fayetteville (Low-A) at that level. Asheville - one of the more historic minor-league franchises - was actually an Astros' affiliate in 1967, 1982 and 1983, but had been a Colorado affiliate since 1994. I guess in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really matter, but I'm surprised that Fayetteville (who has a year-old stadium) got dropped a level. Fare thee well Tri-City and Quad Cities. Jake Kaplan has a good breakdown of how the Astros' minor-league affiliates are structured now.
The future of the Lancaster Jethawks, a Former Astros Great Affiliate, is in limbo.
*Joe Smith talked about his decision to sit out the 2020 season, returning in 2021, and the passing of his mother in August.
*Dusty Baker is the guest on tonight's Astroline.
*SI: Do the White Sox have baseball's best rotation?
*Ars Technica: Meet the new generation of puzzle-makers bringing mystery to your door.
*Hot Links are going to be hit or miss for a little bit as soon I'll actually about to be able to start writing a manuscript I've spent seven years researching, on Andrew Jackson's 1833 guano-crazy tour of New England. My goal is to be done with it before the 2021 season starts, and then I can blow you up on social media asking you to pre-order my book.
*Joel Sherman says the Mets' top targets include George Springer and Trevor Bauer. And it wouldn't be the first time that a beloved Astros outfielder signed a free agent deal with the Mets.
*This is from about a week ago, but the Nationals' Spencer Kieboom built his life around baseball, and then quietly walked away. Good article.
*Leeds United lost to The Bastard Frank Lampard's Chelsea 3-1 on Saturday, and I was still so mad last night putting up the Christmas Tree that my wife got mad at me. Leeds are at 8% to get relegated, according to FiveThirtyEight. With 14 points after 11 games, Leeds are in a decent position. What's more, out of Leeds' first 11 games, they've played teams currently in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th (with 3 wins, 1 tie, 4 losses in those eight games). I did the math, and in the last ten seasons of the Premier League, the 18th place team - the highest of the relegated teams - averaged 35 points. Leeds still has 27 games to get 22 points and remain in the Premier League AND THEN DOMINATE.
Alright, there's life in this off-season yet. Again: I'm perfectly fine with a boring off-season.
*The Astros, unsurprisingly, tendered contracts to Carlos MF Correa, Lance McCullers, and Aledmys Diaz, and agreed to terms on a 1-year deal with Austin Pruitt. Correa and McCullers will be free agents after 2021 if they don't sign an extension. Fun, huh?
*Chandler Rome: Five non-tendered players the Astros could consider this off-season.
*Here's one of the dumbest things you'll read today: if the Yankees can't sign DJ LeMahieu (French for "DJ The Mahieu") then their Plan B is...Michael Brantley.
*Former Astros Great Thomas Eshelman has cleared waivers and is now a free agent.
*Another Michael Bourn Identity episode records today and drops on Monday. Subscribe to Lima Time Time on iTunes/Spotify/Wherever so you don't miss interviews with my friends.
There isn't much to report today, but it turns out that I somehow kind of miss doing this. So here we go! I do hope you enjoy your Thanksgiving and if you're staying at home instead of meeting up with family, you're not alone. AC HQ is doing the same thing. If you're joining a massive family gathering, I do hope you take plenty of precautions. This pandemic isn't permanent, but we sure can extend the hell out of it.
*Brian McTaggart has an inbox about possible Springer replacements (should it come to that), the possibility of a Robinson Chirinos reunion, Yordan, Verlander, Michael Brantley, and Sugar Land.
*Bob Klapisch: 2021 Spring Training could be delayed by 4-6 weeks with the possibility of another shortened season.
*Diego Maradona passed away on Wednesday at the age of 60. I mean, screw that guy AND SCREW THE REFEREES who allowed his Hand of God goal to stand, but Maradona was a genius. A brilliant, self-destructive genius, but a genius nonetheless. If you have access to HBO, you should definitely check out the documentary about him.
*Texas Monthly: Hundreds of people are knitting sweaters for a hairless possum in Lubbock.
*Outside: In the Hill Country, these veterans find community through trail running. Last week I tripped on the dog and then tripped on something else, and fell backwards into the side of the couch. I have bruised ribs, possibly cracked, pulled - possibly torn - a muscle near my kidney. This happened right as I was recovering from a broken foot in July when I slipped on some water on the tile near my back door. 2020 can suck it. Running trails sounds awesome. And good for those Vets.
I last posted on Astros County Dot Com on November 13. This may be the longest I've gone without posting on this blog and, to be honest, it's been quite nice. I needed a break from...everything. I haven't posted in a while because there's...been nothing to post about. It's extremely quiet across AstroWorld. Which, I guess, makes sense when you're trying to navigate a global pandemic.
That said, Ken Rosenthal dropped some notes on Tuesday morning (which he updated later in the morning). I know not everyone subscribes to The Athletic, but it's a pay site, and I respect that. The gist is:
-The Astros are open to the idea of acquiring DJ LeMahieu which, might I remind you, means "DJ The Mahieu" in French...but that would hinge on whether or not the Astros can trade [blinks into the camera for an uncomfortably long time] Carlos Correa. The Astros are apparently listening to offers because, after so long with the Rays, Click may not be aware that extending superstar franchise cornerstones is even an option. Rosenthal said the Astros are not actively shopping Correa but, "like most teams" are at least listening to whatever is happening. Also, don't expect the Astros to try to sign anyone who rejected a Qualifying Offer (Bauer, Realmuto, though LeMahieu fits this profile as well, sooooo).
I can understand listening to any offer. If the Astros tell the Angels, "We will give you our entire Triple-A roster for Mike Trout," I would expect the Angels to listen to that offer. That said, if the Astros trade Carlos Correa this off-season, less than a year after he had the balls to tell Cody Bellinger to shut the fk up on national tv, months removed from jerking a knot in Framber Valdez's chain in the middle of a playoff game, I will be forced to exhale very hard and go for a walk. I can't say that anything the Astros do will make me not watch them - I've had a blog about the Astros since 2008 - there's no debasement I would be unable to withstand.
*Charlie F. Morton signed a 1yr/$15m deal with the Braves, dashing the hopes and dreams of Astros fans across the world. I think we need to sort of realize that most members of the 2017 Astros team who have had - however theoretical - a chance to return to the Astros, haven't. Altuve and Bregman signed their extensions prior to the Fiers article dropping. That's not to say they wouldn't have, but it's worth noting that maybe getting heckled mercilessly online may have an adverse effect on your mental state when playing a game.
That's pretty much it as far as the Astros go. That said, you may or may not know that I have started a new podcast: The Michael Bourn Identity. If you subscribe to Lima Time Time on iTunes or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts, it should be in your feed. If you don't listen to podcasts, but still want to check out the episodes:
Ep. 4 will drop Wednesday so you have something to listen to if you're executing your ill-advised travel plans for Thanksgiving and I'm recording at least two more episodes this week. I really like just talking to my online friends, but over Zoom.
A quick note on Lima Time Time. As far as I know, it's still an active podcast that is simply on hiatus.
-On Sunday the Fantastic Leeds United tied Arsenal 0-0 despite hitting the post/crossbar three times in the last 15 minutes of the game, and out-shooting Arsenal 25-9, and out-squandering chances Infinity-0. I hate Arsenal. I hate every other team in the Premier League, though, so it's nothing personal. Leeds are 14th in the Premier League, though it feels unlucky so far. Meanwhile, Leeds signed a partnership with Jay-Z's Roc Nation agency, and I love Jay-Z, so shove it. Leeds plays Everton on Saturday morning at 11:30am Central.
*The biggest Astros news of the day was that Former Astros Great Jeff Luhnow has sued the Houston Astros in Harris County District Court for $22m for a breach of contract, alleging that his firing was negotiated between Jim Crane and Rob Manfred. ESPN:
Luhnow's attorneys wrote in the filing that the agreement between Crane and Manfred 'scapegoated Luhnow for a sign-stealing scandal that he had no knowledge of and played no part in.'
Luhnow wants a jury trial and hoooooboy would that be something. Just from a "burn it all down" perspective I want this to happen.
In the filing we find Luhnow's lawyers alleging that Tom Koch-Weser, the Astros' director of advance information and the "Dark Arts/Codebreaker" guy, was told by the Astros that he could keep his job as long as he implicated Luhnow.
Brian T. Smith: The lawsuit adds more tarnish to the once-golden Astros era.
David Barron says not to expect some grand John Grisham-esque courtroom drama - it'll likely play out in a closed-door arbitration case.
*Toronto has expressed interest in George Springer. I have expressed interest in Indian food for lunch today.
*Tony LaRussa was charged with a DUI the day before the White Sox hired him, if you want to know how that's going. And the White Sox knew, and hired him anyway.
Well well well. It's going to be a really dumb time to be online. The Dodgers beat the Astros 5-2, getting all their runs in the 5th while the Astros got all their runs from Carlos Correa. Meanwhile, Joe Kelly - who was with the Red Sox in 2017 and 2018 - threw behind Alex Bregman and over Carlos Correa in the 6th, which led to the benches clearing. The Astros are 3-2. There are 55 games remaining, assuming the season is completed.
Dave Roberts, on Kelly's intent: I really don't know, to be quite honest. I know he got behind Bregman 3-0 and lost a fastball. I really don't think there was intent behind that. I think those guys took a little bit of offense. Even the one to Correa, that was a breaking ball that just backed up.
Dusty: I didn't anticipate that. I didn't anticipate throwing over somebody's head three balls and no strikes. One of our more important guys. If you're going to throw at somebody, you don't throw at the head...That's playing dirty baseball.
It's fair to wonder about Joe Kelly's intent. We are talking about a guy with a 4.46 ERA in 2018 and 2019 who walked 54 batters. It could just be that Joe Kelly kind of sucks. Kelly said it wasn't intentional: No. When I was with the Red Sox we beat them in '18. It's one of those things that I pitch competitively. With no fans here, it's easy to hear some stuff (from the opposing dugout)...there's something they apparently didn't take too kind to.
Anyway, should be a fun one tonight. On to the game:
Carlos Correa was (wink) a triple shy of the cycle, had three of the Astros' four hits, and both of the extra-base hits. It's the 26th time in Correa's career that he had three hits with a home run. It's the 18th time he got two extra-base hits in a game. Everyone else went 1x27 with 8Ks.
Framber Valdez threw 4.1IP, 4H/3R (2ER), 2K:1BB.
Enoli Paredes faced four batters and didn't record an out.
Andre Scrubb and Nivaldo Rodriguez made their MLB debuts, throwing 4.2 scoreless - though not uneventful (four hits, two strikeouts, three walks) - innings.
George Springer's slow start continued with an 0x4 to bring his five-game total to 1x20.
7-9 in the lineup (Reddick-Tucker/Toro-Maldonado) went a combined 0x11 with 7K:0BB.
Alex Bregman walked twice but committed two errors.
I know everyone had the pipe dream that the Astros would go back to Hinch the day after the 2020 World Series, but this is really fair to Dusty, and it gives him what would appear to be a normal shot to win a World Series after a 162-game season. It's fair, and I have zero problem with it. It also guarantees that Dusty has a chance at 2000 wins - he's at 1,866.
Dusty: I've been a lame-duck manager four or five times. I was one of the lamest ducks walking around. It feels pretty good not to be a lame duck. This is the best that I've been treated in quite a while.
*James Click said that Verlander will be shut down for "a few weeks" and that it's too soon to say whether or not he'll pitch again this season. He's also hopeful that Devenski and Pressly will be able to avoid the IL. Yordan is close to taking BP in Corpus, but there's not a timeline for him rejoining the Astros.
For the 15th time in a row, the Astros beat the Mariners. Houston has not lost to Seattle since June 5, 2019, and the Astros are 20-1 against Seattle since the beginning of the 2019 season. Houston won 7-2. The Astros are 2-0, 13 AL teams are 1-1, Seattle is 0-2.
Lance McCullers made his first start since August 4, 2018, throwing 6IP, 5H/2ER, 6K:3BB. McCullers: There's been a lot of ups and downs in that period of time. It's been a long road. Two years is a long time and it was great to get back and compete and it's changed my outlook on a lot.
McCullers walked three of the first six batters he faced. Click that link to see what adjustment he made to his breaking ball to settle in.
More McCullers: All in all, it's not the best game I've ever pitched, but it was solid, and I showed flashes of what I've been working on & what I hope to continue to do this year.
Cy Sneed struck out the side in the 8th. Jose Altuve stole the Astros' first base of the season, and also walked twice, something he only did six times in 2019. Gurriel and Springer had home runs and Kyle Tucker contributed an RBI double. Martin Maldonado had his second straight two-hit game.
*The Astros have hit a home run in 27 consecutive regular season games.
*McTaggart's Notes has items on Blake Taylor getting emotional, and Hank Aaron reaching out to Dusty Baker, *Aledmys Diaz was placed on the IL with a groin strain (between a Grade 1 and Grade 2), paving the way for Taylor Jones' call-up. Jones had just gotten into Corpus when the Astros told him to drive back, in the middle of a hurricane. Kyle Tucker will get "most" of the DH ABs while Diaz is out.
The full interview will air Friday at 5pm on MLB Network.
On whether or not the 2017 World Series title is tainted, Hinch: I hope over time it's proven that it wasn't. But I understand the question. It's a fair question and people are going to have to draw their own conclusions (Ed. Note: Oh, they have). Unfortunately, we opened that door as a group. That question may never be answered....I can't pinpoint any advantages or what happened or what exactly would have happened otherwise. But we did it to ourselves.
There are a couple of ways you can interpret this sit-down with Tom Verducci:
a) He's just biding his time until the next managerial opening and is doing the PR round.
b) Hinch is legitimately sorry that he didn't try harder to stop The Coward Alex Cora and any other Astro player (Beltran, maybe, McCann, maybe) and he's getting in front of the camera to confess.
Both can be true at the same time.
*Brian McTaggart writes that all eyes, and ears, will be on the Astros' Spring Training. Stoner hero Mike Clevinger has already said this: I'm all about policing the game in its own right, keeping everyone safe. But I don't know, I think players will deal with it the way it should be across the league. I don't think it's going to be a comfortable few ABs for a lot of those boys, and it shouldn't be. They shouldn't be comfortable.
*Chandler Rome has five questions for the Astros as Spring Training starts next week. Those five questions detail SP5, Kyle Tucker vs Josh Reddick, which reliever will get lefty-hitters out, Lance McCullers' innings, and the possibility of a sophomore slump from Yordan.
*Richard Justice writes that the Astros-Dusty partnership can be mutually beneficial. Justice: Baker cannot make the sign-stealing scandal go away, but his presence - and essential decency - will be a big step in the right direction. He understands that all the Astros can do this spring is own up to the past, apologize for it and then attempt to win a fourth straight American League West title.
*Jake Kaplan says the relationship between Dusty Baker and James Click is more "a marriage." Baker: You start with trust and you start with honesty. You be as straightforward as you can on all situations. You don't sugarcoat anything. If he asks you a question you answer to the best of your knowledge and ability. There are some things that I can learn from him. There are some things that possibly he can learn from me.
*Missed this from the other day, but the Astros have apparently for some reason made an offer to Former Astros Great Hunter Pence. Makes sense, what with the thinned outfield depth of Springer, Brantley, Tucker, Reddick, Straw...
*Hank Aaron thinks everyone involved in the Astros' sign-stealing scandal should be banned from baseball for life.
*Sam Miller: They secretly replaced Yankee Stadium...and other lies that can be proven using real stats.
*Rob Manfred said he wants to complete the Red Sox investigation before Spring Training camps open, with the same offer of immunity for players who talk that the Astros got.
*BBC: How Kirk Douglas helped end the Hollywood blacklist.
*Bloomberg: The time I sabotaged my editor with Ransomware from the dark web.
