Wednesday, January 19, 2011

What would you give Wandy?

It's a question we've asked before, but in light of Levine's piece on the Astros' willingness to talk long-term with Wandy -

“We certainly remain open about the possibility of getting a multiyear deal done with Wandy. In our way of thinking, multiyear contracts should really be buying out some substantial amount of free agency in the process, and in order to do that on a player with Hunter’s service at this point in time, we’d be talking about a contract much longer than we’re comfortable with.”

- so basically, Wandy may get a longer-term deal, but to buy out "substantial amounts of free agency," the Astros would be looking at three years of Pence's arbitration plus free agency. Would you give Pence a six-year deal?

But the question we're posing here is, "How much would you give Wandy?"

Wandy turned 32 yesterday. So there's that. From yesterday's arbitration exchanges, his agent (Barry Praver) wants $10.25m. I'm guessing that the numbers would start at 3yrs/$33m. Would you commit to that?

Wandy has pitched in six seasons, making 20+ starts in all of them (and 65 starts in the last two seasons combined). He's a tale of two pitchers, split between 2005-07, and 2008-10.

From 2005-07: 28-33, 5.17 ERA/1.45 WHIP. 336K:178BB. 85 ERA+. 4.1 WAR. xFIP: 4.56/4.67/4.23 (respectively).

From 2008-10: 34-31, 3.36 ERA/1.28 WHIP. 502K:175BB. 121 ERA+. 10.2 WAR. xFIP: 3.75/3.63/3.68.

So yeah, he's been a much better player over the 2nd half of his career than the first. Is that worth gambling on in his Age 32-34 seasons? His most similar pitcher through Age 31 is Carl Pavano, who had a pretty dang good year last year in Minnesota at Age 34. With Brad Arnsberg, is it a valid assumption that he'll continue - for another 3-4 years - that he'll have seasons similar to his Age 29-31 seasons?

What say you?

No comments: