Wednesday, January 12, 2011

The Verducci Effect - 2009 to 2010

This is something that has been examined before, by us, and just about every other baseball blog (including today at It's About the Money, Stupid). For those unfamiliar, the Verducci Effect is a way to red-flag pitchers 25 years old (and younger) whose innings total saw a jump of 30 innings from year to year. Let's have us a look at the minor-league system and see who fits for the Astros. (We won't look at players drafted in 2009. I'm not going back to everybody's college stats and adding that up. This also doesn't include AFL stats.)


























Name2009IP2010IPDiff.
Cisnero200955.22010133+67.1
Trinidad200921201083.2+62.2
Grimmett200941.2201097.2+56
Urckfitz200957.22010109.2+52
Cruz200954.2201099.2+45
Arguello2009832010127+44
Wright200963.22010102.2+39
Melancon200969.1201082+29
Villar2009902010108+18
Alvino200971.1201087+15.2
Godfrey200951.1201067+15.2
Lyles2009144.22010158.2+14
Seaton2009136.22010146.1+9.2
Leon200970.2201077+6.1
Pitkin200968.1201073+4.2
Greenwalt2009139.12010136.2-2.2
Nevarez200943.1201038.1-5
Del Rosario200980.1201074-5.2
Wolf2009121.12010114.1-7
Wabick200986.1201074.2-11.2
Norris2009175.22010153.2-18
Dydalewicz2009110201083.2-26.1
Abad200996.2201065-31.2
S. Perez2009142.12010107-35.1


That's seven pitchers 25 or younger (drafted in 2008 or before) who saw a 30IP jump from 2009 to 2010. Of those pitchers:

-Jose Trinidad was placed on the DL in July 2010 and May 2009
-Doug Arguello was shut down with elbow trouble in August 2010 and put on the DL in June 2009.

As IATMS puts it:
It is, by no means, a hard and fast rule and Verducci himself is the first to admit it. But, it bears watching.

No comments: