Saturday, March 23, 2013

Scott Boras whines, makes no sense

Just catching up on things that happened yesterday, and ran across this USA Today article from Bob Nightengale that doesn't even have, like, pie charts or anything.

In said article, "Super-Agent" (which is like a super-hero, only your special power is a lack of conscience and moral fiber) Scott Boras is complaining. What's he complaining about this time? Kyle Lohse doesn't have a job. And in order for Kyle Lohse to get a job, some team is going to have to give up a 1st-Round draft pick. And when a team gives up a 1st-Round draft pick, the money they could have paid that pick is removed from their overall bonus pool.

So of course Scott Boras is upset. Gone are the days when teams will just pay whatever they want for a player. The Astros - and seven other teams - passed on Mark Appel in the 2012 draft because Appel (who is, or at least was last year, advised by - oh yeah - Scott Boras) was going to take up too much of their draft money. When Mark Appel didn't get paid, Boras didn't get paid. And then, BORAS...MAD.

The next logical step, of course, is to complain about the whole system of agents - I mean players - getting their money. And it doesn't stop at free agency. Regard, from Super-Agent Boras:

"The integrity of the game has been compromised,'' Boras tells USA TODAY Sports. "What baseball has done, it has created a dynamic where draft dollars are affecting the major leaguers. Teams are constructing clubs to be non-competitive, like Houston and Miami, so they can position themselves where they can get more draft dollars. Clubs are trying to finish last to create more draft dollars. And this dramatically affects the wild-card and major-league standings.''

So let me get this straight. Boras is complaining that Baseball (capitalized) has created a system where the draft actually impacts the big-league club. They're not two separate universes anymore, and that makes Super-Agent Scott Boras angry enough to call out the Astros and Marlins for "trying to finish last." And when they do that, Kyle Lohse can't get paid. Thus, Scott Boras can't get paid.

Scott Boras has always been about Scott Boras. He's not driven by the integrity of the game - he's driven by the Great Commission (6%). Anytime one of his players doesn't get a big contract, Boras complains about the "integrity of the game." He last did it in November, when the Indians wouldn't give huge money to Shin-Soo Choo and he said they didn't care about winning.

And let's not forget that Boras hasn't exactly been the poster boy for championing The Cause of Integrity. How about when he criticized Jim Leyland for sitting Magglio Ordonez (who - at the time - had a .690 OPS) when there was a $15m vesting option for 2010 on the line. No...it was not financially motivated over sitting a slumping player in what was then a tight AL Central race. In 2007, Boras sent a letter to Bud Selig proposing that the World Series be nine games, with the first two games being hosted at a rotating neutral site.

You can also click that last link to read a 2007 New Yorker piece about Boras (which is appropriately titled, "The Extortionist") for a glimpse into why Boras *just might* be pissed about the changes in the draft:

I asked if he planned to travel to Orlando, where the draft was being held. He smiled. “I think the draft is here,” he said. “It’s not in Orlando. We’re in the room”—he pointed up, toward the war room—“and we’re telling teams who they can draft, who they can’t. That’s basically how the thing goes."

Hm. Boras' power has been cut, and methinks he doesn't like it.

In May 2009, Baseball investigated agents and their role in players using PEDs. Boras had a whole host of players testing positive or linked to PEDs - ten, including Astro-hopeful Rick Ankiel. (Oh yes, and Boras decided last month that he was going to open his own South Florida training facility to protect players from falling under the spell of the likes of Dr. Bosch and his remedies.)

Point being, it's laughable that Boras would complain about the integrity of the game when he's been responsible for more attacks on that very idea than just about anybody else.

Boras is the king of finding loopholes to benefit himself and his clients (generally in that order). Now when major-league teams are doing the same thing...it's apparently a problem.

Friday, March 22, 2013

Integrity of the Game

I have heard from too many places lately that the Astros rebuilding plan is an affront to the integrity of the game, most recently in a series of tweets from Peter Gammons and a quote from Scott Boras. Part of this criticism is usually that the Astros losing will guarantee 3 teams from the AL West, which is unfair to the teams in AL Central and Al East. The poor babies. Peter Gammons put it this way:
Is this true though? Does having a bad team in the division guarantee that 3 teams will make the playoffs?

You all might remember that the Astros lost 107 games last year. The Cubs lost 101. Despite having two punching bags, only the Reds and Cardinals made the playoffs from the NL Central, with the Braves taking the first Wild Card. So obviously its not an absolute guarantee. As last year was the first year there were two Wild Cards, that is our only actual example. That could have been an outlier, so I looked back at every season since baseball went to the unbalanced schedule in 2001.

Since then, there have been 16 instances when a division featured a team that lost 100 games or more. Only the 2006 AL Central would have placed three teams in the playoffs under the current format. And that year, the Royals were hardly historically bad, as they only lost 100 games. The 2003 AL Central with the 119 loss Tigers would not have produced either Wild Card. The 2004 NL West, with the 111 loss Diamondbacks, would have added the Giants as the second Wild Card, but would not have had both. The 106 loss Brewers would not have produced either Wild Card in the 2002 NL Central. And the NL Central in 2011 would still have placed only two teams, despite the 106 loss Astros.

Clearly, having a bad team, even a historically bad team like the 2004 D-Backs or 2003 Tigers, doesn't guarantee 3 teams in the playoffs from one division. If three teams from the AL West make it this year, it will be because the other competitors didn't do enough to keep them out. They will have no one to blame but themselves. Blaming the Astros and whining about the "integrity of the sport" is just lazy.

Thursday, March 21, 2013

"About a half-dozen teams" have asked on Norris

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo tweeted this morning that "about a half-dozen" teams have inquired about the availability of Bud Norris, but that the Astros are not involved in any serious negotiations.

The Cardinals have been linked to interest in one of Norris/Harrell. The Yankees might be interested in Norris if only because he isn't held together with chicken wire.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Astros looking for Happy Hour

Jayson Stark tweeted earlier today (before Luhnow's "nothing is imminent" on Harrell/Norris comments this afternoon) that other clubs are saying the Astros will "listen on anyone" provided they get at least two players in return.

Stark also mentioned that "lots of scouts" have their eye on Lucas Harrell.

Minor leaguers can't have facial hair

There's a predictable joke coming, and I bet you can make it before I even have a chance to set it up. But apparently Rudy Owens had to trim his beard before going over to minor-league camp, because the team "has a facial hair policy" in the minors.

Astros Baseball: Earn Your Beard!

(And you thought they didn't have facial hair because they just couldn't grow it!)


Bud Norris is your Opening Day starter

As we (and others) predicted, Bo Porter has officially named Bud Norris as the Astros' Opening Day starter on March 31.

Harrell will start Game 2 and Phil Humber will start Game 3. SPs 4/5 have yet to be determined. But they won't be John Ely or Jordan Lyles (surprise!) who were both optioned to Oklahoma City today.

Lyles, who had a rough start yesterday that actually lowered his Spring ERA, was told by Porter that his roster move was not a demotion, but rather a delay. Ely had allowed 14H/11ER in 10IP, with 10K:4BB and four HR allowed.

So it seems as though Peacock, White, and Bedard are in the mix for the final two spots. And again, Bedard would be the only lefty, so I think he's a lock, leaving Peacock and White to battle it out over that final spot (I still give the nod to Peacock).

Furthermore, Luhnow told the media today that it's hard to envision a scenario in which he trades either Norris or Harrell:


Roster Cuts

Brian McTaggart tweeted this morning that the Astros have made some minor-league roster cuts. Among them:

Zack Grimmett, John Hinson, Jeremiah Meiners, and Danny Meszaros.

Grimmett was drafted in the 28th Round of the 2008 draft out of Beggs High School in Oklahoma. He posted an ERA under 5.00 just once - in Lancaster in 2010, and spent 2011 and 2012 at Lancaster, where he went 9-18 with a 7.39 ERA/1.73 WHIP.

Hinson was the Astros' 2011 13th Round pick out of Clemson. He reported to Tri-City, and hit .284/.348/.389 in 43 games, but was limited to just 15 games for Lexington in 2012 due to hamstring injuries (though he hit .339/.350/.508.)

Jeremiah Meiners was drafted in the 40th Round of the 2010 draft out of Francis Marion University. Appearing in 58 games, all in relief, Meiners had a composite 3.51 ERA, but aside from two appearances for Lancaster in 2011 never progressed above Tri-City in three seasons.

Danny Meszaros is likely the most recognizable name on this list. He was drafted in the 48th Round in 2008 out of the College of Charleston. He was suspended in 2010 for using a banned substance, and didn't pitch in 2012.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

The International Draft and What It Means for the Astros

There has been quite a bit of movement towards an international draft, and possibly as soon as this year. I think this a terrible idea for the overall health of the sport, but what effect would it have on the Astros current rebuilding plan?

Right now, based on the most recent CBA, the Astros have largest available pool for signing international players. For the 2013 to 2014 signing period, they will have $4.7 million. That will give them a negotiating advantage, but only marginal. They will not have exclusive negotiating rights with anyone, and its within the realm of possibility that, for a truly marquee name, a team would be willing to exceed their allotment and undercut the Astros' negotiating leverage. The current penalties are all monetary, and I don't think they are enough to stop a team from getting a player they want.

With a draft, it would be different. The Astros would have the exclusive negotiating rights to their drafted players. There will, presumably, still be limits on what they can offer, but noother team can undercut them by offering more. Assuming the Astros would also get the top pick in the international draft, it should, at least in the short term, offer the Astros an advantage in the international realm.

However, I'm nervous about the effect it will have on the Astros' ability, and more importantly, their incentive, to develop international talent long term. Most international markets are not like the U.S, where talent is independently developed via little leagues, high school programs and colleges. As outlined in this article by Grant Brisbee, one avenue for the Astros to infuse young talent into the system under the current system, with the limitation on bonuses, is to invest in infrastructure in international markets to develop talent. However, if the talent they develop is free for anyone to draft, will it still make sense for the Astros to pursue that avenue? And if teams aren't making the effort to develop talent in these markets, will the available talent for all teams begin to dry up?

These are questions I don't think we know the answers to yet. However, as the MLB really wants this, and the players union doesn't really care about what happens to non-member international teenagers, I think we will find out soon enough.

Random Trade Tree - Ramon Castro

Some of you may remember the popular series we had last year called "Random, Random Astro." While that  feature hasn't been completely forgotten, despite the multi-month hiatus, I'd like to introduce another "Random" series, the Random Trade Tree. In this series of sporadic posts, we'll trace the roster genealogy of a particular player through player trades.

Today, let's look at the offspring of catcher Ramon Castro. Before our own Carlos Correa, Castro was the highest drafted Puerto Rican player when he was selected 17th overall by Houston in 1994. Castro would toil away in the Houston farm system until July 4, 1998 when he was traded to Florida for reliever Jay Powell and minor league catcher Scott Makarewicz. Castro has gone on to spend  13 years as a major league backup catcher for the Marlins, Mets, and White Sox and is currently in spring training with the Dodgers. He has amassed 2.6 WAR over those 13 seasons.

Makarewicz was originally drafted by Houston in 1989, stayed in the Astros system until 1995, spend two seasons with the Tigers organization, then half a season with Florida before being traded back to Houston. 1998 was his last season in organized ball.

Jay Powell pitched out of the pen in Houston from the time of the trade until June 27, 2001 when he was traded to Colorado for swingman Ron Villone. Powell appeared in 160 games for Houston during that time putting up a 4.02 ERA (113 ERA+) while going 11-10 with 8 saves and 1.7 WAR. He pitched horribly during the Astros' 1998 and 1999 playoff runs, combining for an 8.44 ERA over 5.1 innings. He was last seen appearing in 5 games for Atlanta in 2005.

Ron Villone pitched a half season for Houston, appearing in 31 games (6 starts) going 5-7 with a 5.56 ERA (84 ERA+ and -0.8 WAR) and making one appearance in the 2001 NLDS, pitching .2 scoreless innings before becoming a free agent after the 2001 season. He would go on to pitch for a few more teams through the 2009 season, including another 19 starts for Houston in 2003.

In exchange for a major league backup catcher, Houston ended up with 240.1 major league innings with a 4.46 ERA and 0.9 WAR and 37 games from a minor league backup catcher.

So, Ramon Castro's family tree is as follows:

Ramon Castro
          |                                |
Jay Powell                   Scott Makarewicz
          |
Ron Villone

Monday, March 18, 2013

Max Stassi hitting again

Recently-acquired Max Stassi, who had surgery to repair a sports hernia last month, tweeted out this evening that he resumed hitting. And with a #Success hashtag, we can presume that it went well.

Brandon Wikoff involved in one-car accident

2009 5th Round pick Brandon Wikoff was involved in a single-car accident on Sunday night, and is in the hospital in stable condition.

The Orlando Police Department did not have a crash report, and the Florida Highway Patrol did not respond to the Chronicle's message. So...that's that.

Wikoff only played in 22 games for Corpus last season thanks to a wrist injury, where he hit .190/.297/.222 after a strong 2011 season in which he hit .308/.398/.353 in 103 games at Corpus.

So, we echo Jeff Luhnow's best wishes to Wikoff and his family and friends.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Correa to Quad Cities?

Jose de Jesus Ortiz tweeted a note from Luhnow this morning indicating that Carlos Correa may start the 2013 season in Quad Cities - which wouldn't be all that unusual - but he has made a case to start in Lancaster.

Luhnow:

"He’s certainly making a case for maybe a level higher, but we’re going to take the conservative approach with him."

Nolan Fontana - the Astros' 2nd Round pick in 2012 - will likely be SS1 for Lancaster in 2013. 2009 1st Round pick Jio Mier - who missed significant time in 2012 due to a hamstring injury - probably gets to start the season at Corpus in his 4th full season in the organization.

The Third Cut Is As Deep As The First

Ten more cuts have been made this morning and, while the rotation is set, it seems as though one decision is clear. First, the ten players optioned or reassigned:

OF Robbie Grossman
OF Jimmy Paredes
OF Che-Hsuan Lin
SS Jonathan Villar
C Carlos Perez
P Paul Clemens
P Dallas Keuchel
P C.J. Fick
P Josh Zeid
P Sergio Escalona

So. The name that may stand out to you is Dallas Keuchel, meaning that my post on the rotation was valid for approximately 23 hours.

With Keuchel being optioned to minor-league camp, that leaves Erik Bedard as the (current) lone LHP option for the rotation, which would indicate that he's in the rotation.

39 players are still in camp, and if you'll allow me to pull up the calculator accessory, it means 14 still need to go. We'll talk about that this afternoon.

Luhnow:

"A lot of these guys we're sending out today have a bright future in our organization, and they know they'll be back. They need to go down and get regular work and go to their respective Minor League locations and show us what they can do. We know the 25 we start with are not the 25 we're going to have all year."

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Cardinals interested in Harrell/Norris

Peter Gammons tweeted this morning that the Cardinals are interested in both a shortstop and a pitcher. He specifically mentioned Lucas Harrell and Bud Norris.

This would be Luhnow's Grudge Trade - a chance to match wits against John Mozeliak ("So I clearly cannot drink from.the cup in front of me"). If the Astros can get a Shelby Miller, would you do it?

Breaking down the starting rotation

Lucas Harrell and Bud Norris are in. That much we know. SP 3-5? We don't know so much.

Here are your candidates:

Jordan Lyles

Good God his Spring Training has been rough - and while you don't typically put much stock in Spring Training starts (for reasons previously explained), Lyles' 19.13 ERA/3.38 WHIP is not encouraging. In 8IP this spring Lyles has allowed 26H/17ER. He's only walked one batter, so the issue seems to be that all the batters know what he's doing, all the time. Lyles also has options left, so he wouldn't have to pass through waivers.

Alex White

White is one of three pitchers (as of 10:15am on March 16) to throw 10+ IP, and he's allowed 17H/8ER in his 10.1IP. Opponents are hitting .362 against him thus far, and he has a 2.03 WHIP. That said, in his last start against the Nationals on Thursday, White threw 4IP, 7H/2ER, 1K, and Jason Castro raved about the late life in his sinker.

Phil Humber

Has thrown exceptionally well. With a team-high 14IP, Humber has only allowed 5H/2ER, with 7K:4BB. On Monday, he threw 5IP, 1H/0ER, with 3Ks. Humber is also out of options, meaning if the Astros were to send him to OKC, he'd have to go through waivers first and I think his spring has been strong enough that there's no way he doesn't get claimed. I'm putting Humber in the rotation.

Brad Peacock

Peacock has really come along, pitching very well in his last start - allowing 4H/1ER, 5K:4BB in 5IP. 54 of his 80 pitches were for strikes. Porter was extremely complimentary, throwing his breaking ball for strikes when behind in the count.

Erik Bedard

Bedard has been limited this spring, only throwing 3IP thanks to his strained Bedardadonk. He threw an inning on Wednesday and will throw again on Sunday. There are two sides to this one: not throwing means he might actually stay healthy longer, or he could get edged out simply because the Astros haven't seen enough of him in game action. Bedard addressed this possibility after his appearance on Wednesday, but Porter likened him to Jamie Moyer - using craft and deception to get through his outing - and made special mention of hoping that the young pitchers (which narrows it down to "Everybody Else") were paying attention to how he worked. Could get a spot simply as a matter of Veteranism.

Dallas Keuchel

Another tough one, simply because he has options left and hasn't had a great Spring, throwing 7IP and allowing 7ER. That said, he's really the only LHP option out of this whole group. Out of every pitcher the Astros currently have in camp, he's one of two lefties (Bedard) to be a candidate.

John Ely

John Ely is a distinguished member of the double-digit ERA club, joining Jordan Lyles thanks to his 10.13 ERA. He also has options left, so he might just find himself back in the Pacific Coast League to start the season, with a go-bag packed to join the Astros.

So there you have it. How do you fashion a rotation out of that? If we're going based on Spring Training results alone (dangerous), your rotation might look like this:

1. Norris
2. Harrell
3. Humber
4. Peacock
5. Keuchel (lefty).

The other question is, where the heck is Luhnow going to put the guys he sends down? OKC's rotation  could be jammed up, as well. Rotation candidates for the RedHawks include Jarred Cosart, Rudy Owens, Ross Seaton, Brett Oberholtzer, Jose Cisnero, Paul Clemens (who may actually move to the bullpen for Houston), and Asher Wojciechowski.

Allow me to do the math for you: We've looked at seven pitchers for three spots, leaving four guys who aren't going to make the Astros' rotation. If Bedard doesn't make the rotation, he'll probably just be released, which would leave three starting pitchers heading down to OKC, where there are six guys already there to challenge for a rotation spot.

Update: The commenter below is correct (and I can't find the link right now): Luhnow did say at some point this off-season that OKC will proceed with two starting pitchers per game.

I do think Humber is a lock for the rotation. So who do you pick for SPs 4/5?

Some Not Good News for Fernando Martinez

Here's a Hardball Talk post from this morning mentioning a series of tweets from ESPN's TJ Quinn saying that Major League Baseball are going hard after players linked to the south Florida-based Biogenesis clinic.

Cesar Carrillo - who spent a brief period of time with the Astros organization - was suspended 100 games (50 games for being on Biogenesis documents and 50 for lying to MLB about knowing "Dr." Tony Bosch). As Quinn points out, Carrillo is a minor-leaguer so he doesn't have the Union's protection. MLB wanted him to cooperate, he didn't, so they busted his nutsack like a week-old avocado.

Why is this bad for Fernando Martinez? Because last month Martinez was linked to Biogenesis, allegedly owing Bosch $4000 for treatments in February and March 2012.

Since Martinez does have Union protection, it may be harder for MLB to do anything, but it at least sounds like they'll try.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Puerto Rico manager Edwin Rodriguez wanted Carlos Correa

Puerto Rico manager Edwin Rodriguez said yesterday that he tried to get MLB to allow Carlos Correa (who played for Rodriguez in Puerto Rico) to join the team for the World Baseball Classic with the understanding that he wouldn't play - he would be there just for the experience of it. MLB said no.

Rodriguez:

"I tried to bring [Correa] in. I extended an invitation, but MLB did not allow him. Other than that, I think that eventually he will be here...I thought that he still needed a little bit more work offensively,"

Joe Frisaro:
Because MLB places a limit on the number of people who can be in uniform on the bench, the idea fizzled.


Fernando Rodriguez has torn UCL (maybe)

We all knew Fernando Rodriguez wasn't right. Whether that was because of Teh Suck, or because he was actually injured was up for debate. Looking at his monthly splits from last season, he had a Terrible June/July, but rebounded in August/September.

Well, MLB.com's Jane Lee tweeted this afternoon:

Fernando Rodriguez tore his UCL but is getting a second opinion before committing to Tommy John surgery.

Jose de Jesus Ortiz responded to one of our tweets by saying Rodriguez sounded fine last month:
@AstrosCounty He actually sounded good when I spoke to him last month in Arizona. He was feeling good.

That's obviously not good for the A's, who acquired F-Rod with Jed Lowrie. F-Rod threw in consecutive games 16 times in 2012, and on one day of rest an additional 25 times. Maybe the A's should send any bills to the Cleveland Indians, c/o Brad Mills.

This is great news if you want an excuse to not watch the Astros this season

Here's David Barron with an update on the CSN Houston fiasco, and it's not pretty.

Barron quotes a statement from from DirecTV about CSN Houston:

“Unfortunately, we have yet to be able to reach an agreement with the owners of CSN Houston that allows customers to choose whether they want to pay to see the games or not. We are ready and willing to have that discussion any time so we can begin providing this network. Until then, DIRECTV customers can still see Astros games on FOX, TBS, MLB Network and especially ESPN (which carries the season opener) or hear the games on Houston’s KTRH 740 AM, XM Radio and other regional radio carriers.”

HAHAHAHAHA Because Fox, TBS, MLB Network and ESPN are all lining up to show regular season Astros games in 2013. HAHAHAHAHA. So what CSN Houston is telling DirecTV subscribers is:

1) You can watch Astros games on networks that aren't planning on showing any Astros games or
2) Listen to games on the radio.

Remember, MLB.tv will not work for you if you are in Texas, or any other state that even thinks about Texas.

Click the link to read Barron's thoughts and take on a similar situation currently taking place in San Diego.

How's This For Job Security

From Andy Martino, via Hardball Talk  comes a quote from Jeff Luhnow that is very interesting:

“People know Bo is going to be here for a long time,” Luhnow says. “He could be one of those guys who is an Astros manager for decades, not just years. The players knowing that this is the group that’s going to be here -- it begins to lay the foundation for stability, which is really what we’re looking for.”

All this before he wins a single game in the majors. This could all be bluster, but I think its part of a conscious effort to let Porter know that his job is not on the line if the Astros perform poorly this year, or maybe even the next. Luhnow has taken a very long term view of building the franchise, and hiring Bo Porter seems to part of that vision. 

Time will tell if Porter is the right man to guide this group of young players, and the next wave after it, to long term success. But if Luhnow's quote is any indication, he will be given every opportunity to do so. 

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

The Second Cut is also the deepest

The Astros have optioned four pitchers: Jose Cisnero, Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, and Ross Seaton to minor-league camp, and the roster is currently at 49.

Again, no real surprises. While we've heard for some time that Cosart will not be in the bullpen and will develop as a starter to begin the year, this is confirmation that the Astros are sticking with that plan. Later we'll take a look at the Bubble Players fighting for those 25 spots.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Crane, on Nolan

I wouldn't put much stock into the "Nolan Comes Home" after-school special, reading his comments today.

Read the whole thing, because it's fun, but Crane knows Nolan's in Cooperstown in a Rangers cap, he remembers the negotiations to buy the Rangers. And as our buddy John Royal mentioned on Twitter today, Ryan is still a minority owner in the Rangers. Make all the jokes about Texas you want, but that level of incest just won't do (and is officially a "conflict of interest").

In other Jim Crane news, it's clear that he's looking to get out of Kissimmee when the contract ends in a few years, and talked again today about the possibility of coming to Florida's east coast.

Don't know if you've noticed, but Mark Appel is killing it at Stanford so far

The guy most everybody thought the Astros would take with the 1-1 in 2012 - Mark Appel - is currently killing it at Stanford, after deciding that the Pac-12 for another season is a better option than signing with the Pirates.

Stanford is currently 10-5, after what I guess is a surprising sweep (I don't follow it, but I was surprised) at the hands of UNLV - at home, no less - breaking Stanford's nine-game winning streak.

They're 10-5 overall now.

But prospective 2013 1-1 Mark Appel is killing it. Even though he got the loss in the opener against UNLV, Appel threw 7IP, allowing 4H/1ER, with 15K:1BB.

In four starts (two complete games) for Stanford in 2013, Appel is 2-2 with a 1.20 ERA/0.77 WHIP, with 43K:6BB in 30IP, allowing just four extra-base hits in 110 PAs.

Just something to keep an eye on...

And still nobody knows what to do with the Astrodome

Just an update: There are still no plans to come up with a plan for the Astrodome.

Today Harris County commissioners met and decided to take no action on a plan to offer a ballot issue  to the public to fund bonds that would provide "millions of dollars" needed to renovate the Dome.

It's been unfit to occupy since 2009, so something has to be done. Might as well wait until the right plan comes up. No Plan is better than a Bad Plan. 

Monday, March 11, 2013

Sig Mejdal Q&A with FanGraphs

And from FanGraphs, here is a Q&A with the DDS Himself (Director of Decision Sciences).

There is some great stuff in here - about the culture of the Astros organization, how the title came about, etc. Well worth your time.

Nolan Ryan may or may not be staying put

With a captip to Hardball Talk, we get a link to the statement Nolan Ryan made about his current, uh, relationship with the Rangers:

The conversations have been productive, and we have discussed my role as CEO of the organization. We agreed these discussions will continue as we go forward.

So there have been discussions over the past week about Ryan's role. Nothing has been determined. No, I won't say how productive the discussions have been. The discussions will continue. Focus on the team.

Evan Grant said: "At least for now."

Craig Calcaterra said: "Call me crazy, but that’s the statement of a man getting ready to bolt."

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Sunday Morning Links

*The Astros made their first round of cuts this morning, and there are no surprises:

Reassigned to minor-league camp were: Delino DeShields, Jake Goebbert, Marc Krauss, George Springer, and Chris Wallace. Optioned to minor-league camp were Rudy Owens and Sam Demel.

Again, no surprises, bu the Astros got to see DeShields and Springer for a handful of ABs. Sam Demel threw in five games and lasted 2.1IP, allowing 10H/11ER, 4HR, 1K:3BB - so it's absolutely not a surprise that he got optioned down.

*Luhnow said that we could see Krauss in Houston at some point this year. The next round of cuts will likely be Wednesday.

*Rick Ankiel is giving back to the younger Astros.

*Jake Goebbert discusses his off-season job as a farmer.

*The owner/GM of The Woodlands Strykers is pretty jazzed up about the possibility of a Triple-A team nearby.

Friday, March 8, 2013

The Braves are currently destroying the Astros

Over at Osceola County Stadium, the Braves are whooping the dog nuts out of the Astros. It's a slow news day, and I don't feel like writing about Dr. Michael Brown and Rachel Brown/Jeff Bagwell.

So what the hell is happening in Kissimmee? Well, at least the Braves made six outs. But before doing that, they scored 11 runs on 11 hits in 17 ABs with one strike out (Jordan Schafer) and two walks.

Jordan Lyles' day is done, and his line: 0.2IP, 7H/6ER, HR (25.20 ERA for the Spring)
Sam Demel's day is done, and his line: 0.2IP, 3H/5ER, 0K:2BB (42.43 ERA for the Spring)

The only funny thing at all is that apparently Alan Ashby and Geoff Blum are making fun of Jordan Schafer, for making three of the Braves' six outs.

UPDATE: Not content to let Lyles and Demel have all the fun of not getting outs, Wesley Wright has allowed 3H/3ER, 1K:1BB in 0.2IP. So that's five pitchers in three innings, and no one getting three outs. 

Ryan-Sanders group not selling Corpus Christi Hooks

Our buddy Greg Rajan just tweeted out the following, regarding the Ryan-Sanders Group and their ownership of the Corpus Christi Hooks:

Regarding #Astros interest in moving affiliate(s) closer to Houston,#cchooks CEO Reid Ryan says Ryan-Sanders has no intention to sell.

There's a story coming on Caller.com soon. When it posts, we'll link to it.

Update from Rajan:

#cchooks have seven years left on Whataburger Field lease and Ryans have development interests around ballpark, so move makes no sense.

The Astros are losing their Title flags

I'm trying really hard. I am. I'm trying really hard not to get pissed off about every little thing. But KHOU's Daniel Gotera tweeted out this picture this morning:


What is that, you ask? Those are the flags that hung on the wall of Minute Maid Park announcing the various division titles, the 2005 NL Pennant, etc. On the back of a truck. Being carried away.

Now here's what I'm hoping, and I'll refrain from throwing this wax sculpture of Bud Selig into a furnace until I get verification: I'm hoping that they're going away, and coming back with the new color scheme.

UPDATE: Good news! They're just being re-branded

Harrell has minor groin injury

Lucas Harrell will miss his scheduled start today against the Braves, thanks to a "minor right groin injury," according to Brian Smith. Steve Sparks says it's not serious (how's that for alliteration?).

OKC fans aren't very happy with Jim Crane right now

Another day, another set of people Jim Crane is pissing off. While you, Texas-based fan, may be excited about the Astros moving a minor-league franchise to a town near you, that means OKC residents aren't so excited about the possibility of losing their team.

One OKC resident/baseball fan:
"That would be the biggest mistake if he ever did that."

But here's the thing. The Astros have to either own a team or coerce another owner to move their team to The Woodlands (or wherever). Mandalay Baseball Properties owns the Oklahoma City RedHawks. And, from Crane's comments yesterday regarding the Ryan-Sanders Group owning the Hooks, I wonder if Crane/Astros are looking to buy their own Triple-A franchise.

OKC fans don't really need to worry about losing baseball, either. The PDC (Professional Development Contract) the Astros signed with OKC last fall runs through 2014. Bricktown is such a great park/location/facility that some team is going to sign up with them should the Astros leave.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Astros might move Triple-A team to The Woodlands

In a remarkable turn, Jim Crane told Brian Smith that the Astros are entertaining the idea of moving the Triple-A franchise to The Woodlands.

Crane:
"Something north of the Woodlands would definitely work. When we were in Austin with the Triple-A, we got a lot of bang for our buck and the most for our TV market. Unfortunately, we’re not there.”

And, oooh, here's more from Crane about the Nolan Ryan (group)-owned Corpus Christi Hooks:
“That’s not necessarily the way we like to see that.” 

Click the link, because there's an awful lot to unpack here.

First, The Woodlands as a possibility for the Triple-A team is interesting simply because Drayton seemed to go out of his way to avoid that. Remember back in 2011 when Drayton vetoed a minor-league team in Sugar Land (paving the way for the Skeeters - who had two, TWO, nationally televised games to the Astros' zero nationally televised games).

Here's what we wrote at the time (link above):
This is tremendously short-sighted. It takes 48 minutes to drive from the Ballpark in Arlington to Frisco, TX. It's 46 minutes from Turner Field to Gwinnett, GA - home of the Braves' Triple-A affiliate. It's 39 minutes from Camden Yards to Bowie, MD - home of the Orioles' Double-A affiliate - and 44 minutes to Aberdeen, MD, where the Orioles have their NYPL short-season team.

Hurt attendance? If your favorite prospect was playing 45 minutes down the road, and climbed the ladder to Minute Maid, wouldn't you check out the guys you're invested in? Chalk it up, Drayton. Another fantastic idea. 


Second, it would seem that Crane is leaning towards not bringing Nolan Ryan back (at this moment), as the idea of the Astros' Double-A team being owned by Nolan Ryan isn't something he likes to see. It's a valid point. The part-owner and CEO (even one whose official capacity is somewhat up in the air) of your new division rival owns your Double-A team? I wouldn't like it much, either.

But the Astros desperately need a south Texas presence, what with the Rangers thinking they're hot crap, and whatnot and making inroads across the state (not to mention that everyone who has cable gets Fox Sports Southwest and CSN Houston?...oh yeah). So they'll need to keep something in Corpus...right?


Thoughts?

The Astros and Nolan Ryan

Given all the hand-wringing in the Metroplex over the Nolan Ryan saga, there are a few pieces out in the last few hours that say the Astros should bring the Ryan Express back to Houston. Regard:

ESPN's Johnette Howard:

Besides, the Astros are so adrift that fixing them is a huge job for just one man. They've gotten big and small things wrong for years on the field and in the community. It's almost incomprehensible to read that in this day and age, even their local TV coverage stinks. Their games are on TV only about 40 percent of the time...Ryan would know how to handle that.

ESPNDallas' Richard Durrett:

The last thing this ownership group should want is for Ryan to leave. I say that not only because of the public relations nightmare but also because Ryan still has value. Just because Daniels is the guy running the day-to-day activities of baseball operations doesn't mean Ryan doesn't matter.

ESPNDallas' Jean-Jaques Taylor:

And if you have to choose between having a terrific 66-year-old or a terrific 35-year-old guy run an organization, you should bet on youth every time.

And Jose de Jesus Ortiz brought some noise:

With a major league record seven no-hitters and toughness that embodies Texas and gritty Houston, Ryan is arguably the greatest name in Astros history. If the Rangers are silly enough to let him walk away, the Ryan Express needs to park at Minute Maid Park forever.

I'm still figuring out how I feel about this. Your thoughts? 

Rotation Update

Brian Smith had some updates on the set up of the rotation for 2013 (all links via Twitter):



*Bo Porter will determine SP1 towards the end of Spring Training (of course, either Harrell or Norris).
*One determination is Norris' strength at home vs. away.

Which is totally valid. On the road in 2012, Norris allowed an .889 OPS-against (.293/.379/.509), and just a .557 OPS-against at Minute Maid Park. Harrell had a much more manageable .713 road OPS-against in 2012, and a .663 home OPS-against. This is notable, as SP1 would get two home starts to start the season, and SP2 would get the first road game of the season at Seattle on April 8. 

*Porter said that Humber is clearly working his way into the rotation, but...
*The 3-4-5 spots have yet to be determined.
*Porter has also talked to the pitching staff about "picking up the pace," thinking that it could be leading to poor fielding. 

Erik Bedard's strained butt muscle: Impact, and you

As mentioned yesterday, Erik Bedard has a strained right gluteal muscle, which is DOCTORCODE for "he strained the right side of his ass."

But Bedard isn't being cheeky about it, it's happened before - in 2008, as Brian Smith let everyone know this morning. So what does that mean for the Astros?

Maybe not so much. In Bedard's first five starts in 2008 after injuring said buttock, he threw 31.2IP, allowing 20H/7ER, 25K:14BB for a .583 OPS-against and a .184 BABIP. He had two disaster starts in his next three (2IP, 6ER at Texas and 4.1IP, 9ER at New York), but he made every start through July 4. After that July 4 start, Bedard complained of shoulder stiffness and missed the rest of the season.

But this is a recurring theme for Bedard and his career - be somewhat effective, get hurt, miss a bunch of time. At least initially however, Bedard's derriere wasn't a problem early in the season.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Historical WAR Races

Perusing Fangraphs, I uncovered some interesting WAR races worth paying attention to over the next couple years.

Astros Catchers v. Jeff Bagwell

According to Fangraphs, Jeff Bagwell was worth 83.9 WAR over the course of his career. Astros (and Colt .45's) Catchers, from 1962-2012, have totaled 72.1. We've already looked at the challenges the Astros catcher position has had over the last 10 years, but there is some hope on the horizon. And, Bagwell is at least not currently padding his lead. Still 11+ WAR is a lot of ground to cover. Barring a sudden MVP level explosion from Jason Castro, this will take several years.

ETA -  2019 - After several good years from Jason Castro, Max Stassi takes over the position full time in 2016. Entering his age 28 season, Astros catchers find themselves less than 2 WAR behind Bagwell. Stassi, and occasional injury replacement and backup catcher Carlos Perez, blow by this, with all star level production. Astros catchers end the year with 4+ WAR, and never look back.

Astros Shortstops v. Craig Biggio

A similar story exists with Astros Shortstops and Craig Biggio. Biggio currently leads 50 years of Astros Shortstops 70.5 to 65.1. Astros County patron saint Dickie Thon has done his part, but after that, its pretty bleak. To put it in perspective, by fWAR, Jed Lowrie is the 10th best Astros shortstop of all time. But the current gap is only 5. And the shortstop cavalry is on its way. Expect this race to be over before the catcher position.

ETA - 2016 - No significant progress is made in 2013 and 2014, but a large chunk is taken out in 2015, as Nolan Fontana mans the position for a year and puts up a 2.5 WAR based on his .400+ on base percentage and fielding skills. Then, at the tender age of 21, Carlos Correa takes over and never lets go. He blows by the 2.5 mark necessary for the shortstops to pass Biggio in his rookie season, and starts to put some real distance in subsequent years. Its not long before Dickie Thon is forever known as the second greatest shortstop in Astros history.

I'd love to hear your predictions in the comments.

State of the Astros' Spring Training

We have arrived at the first scheduled off-day of the Astros' Spring Training. What do we know so far?

*Bo Porter won't take any crap. We know about the practice celebrations, his doghouse, about how he pretty much hates the Astros' defense, and how he's a BAWSE, in general. Will this translate into wins? I don't know if you remember this Zachary Levine tweet from Feb. 29, 2012, but I doubt Bo Porter will be making any Curly noises this Spring Training.

*The Crawfish Boxes covered this the other day, but you can tell who is catching the team's eye by the number of ABs getting spread around. Your AB leaders thus far are Chris Carter (22 ABs), J.D. Martinez (20 ABs), and Jonathan Villar (20 ABs). No one with a realistic shot to earn a 25-Man spot has more than 10 ABs (though two of George Springer's four hits have gone yard.)

*Likewise, with pitching. Harrell, Cosart, and Humber/Norris/Oberholtzer are your IP leaders. Brad Peacock and John Ely have had a rough go of it, each with a 12.27 ERA in 3.2IP. Peacock have each allowed 6H/5ER, with Ely walking three batters.

*But here's the thing about Spring Training stats: they don't matter. Everyone's working playing around with adding a pitch, or their location, or their timing. I put absolutely zero stock in Spring Training stats because there are so many variables, and we don't know exactly what Porter has told everyone to work on. At the end of Spring Training, Astros County will unveil the 4th Annual Taylor Buchholz Pitcher of the Spring/J.R. Towles Hitter of the Spring awards. That should tell you everything you need to know about Spring Training stats.

*What I am concerned about is dudes not getting injured. Remember when Jason Castro jacked up his knee (which he may or may not still be recovering from - terrible grammatical effort) trying to avoid a tag in a stupid Spring Training game against the Tigers? If we can avoid that, great.


Monday, March 4, 2013

Weighing Kyle Lohse*

* Not literally. Although, according to Baseball Reference, he is approximately 210 pounds.

A pitcher who goes 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA, picks up enough Cy Young votes to finish 7th in the voting, and becomes a free agent could expect to get very rich. But Kyle Lohse is still looking for work with a month before the season starts. The reason is the compensation system in the CBA, which would cause any team which signs Lohse to lose a draft pick.A team picking in the top 10 of the draft, like the Astros, loses their second round pick. All others lose their first. Seems like teams are not willing to take that chance on Lohse. 

With that compensation system in mind, does it make sense for the Astros to pursue Lohse for a one or two year contract, with the understanding that they will trade him to a contender mid-season?  I have seen no report, speculation or rumor that this on the table, so this is more of a thought exercise. 

My first inclination is no way. The Astros rebuilding model is contingent on young talent, and losing a draft pick, along with the money that accompanies that pick, seems counterproductive. But we have also seen what Luhnow has done in trades, and if Lohse even comes close to pitching like he did last season, he could be a hot commodity for contending teams at the trade deadline. The question is, are the Astros likely to get more talent from their second round pick or prospects returned for Kyle Lohse?

Due to compensation round picks and competitive balance picks, the Astros second selection in the draft will be number 40. In 2012, with the 41st pick, the Astros got Lance McCullers. I love Lance McCullers, and many considered him a first round talent, who fell due to signability concerns. He was ranked the 50th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. I think its fair to say that if the Astros could guarantee another McCullers in the second round, Lohse would not be worth it. But McCullers is the exception, rather than the rule. Scanning through the 40th picks in the draft over the past ten years or so, you don't see a lot of recognizable names. Huston Street has done well for himself in that slot, and the Royals don't seem to have given up on Luke Hochevar yet, but overall the 40th pick is more miss than hit. 

So could Luhnow do better with a trade? That depends on Lohse's performance, of course. While Lohse's ERA last year was a sparking 2.86, his FIP was over a half run higher at 3.51. Nearly every projection system  has Loshe regressing to a 3.50 era or higher, which is more consistent with Lohse's career performance than last year. Counting on Lohse repeating his 2012 season would not be wise.

Of course, a starting pitcher with 3.50 ERA has value, and could still be traded for a decent return. By comparison, last year, Wandy Rodriguez and Anibal Sanchez had ERA's between 3.50 and 4.00 and were traded for Robbie Grossman/Rudy Owens/Colton Cain and Rob Brantly/Brian Flynn/Jacob Turner respectively. Neither trade was a game changer, but both were good returns. Both Turner and Brantly contributed at the big league level last year, and Grossman appears to be knocking on the door for the Astros. The nature of trades versus the draft is the ability to get someone closer to the majors, which cuts down on the risk associated with the draft. 

Seems the like the second round pick has more risk, but the potential for higher upside, whereas a trade, if Lohse performs as expected, would be lower risk but lower reward. Of course, the loss of the draft allotment that accompanies the second round pick could also potentially hinder the Astros ability to sign other picks. My gut is still that its not worth it. I'd rather see if Luhnow can work his magic in the draft again than rely on Lohse's performance to maximize his return. But its a closer call than I first thought. What do you think?

Forbes' Billionaire list

Just a quick heads-up, Drayton McLane is ranked #831 on Forbes' Billionaire list (#279 on the U.S. list), valued at $1.8 billion. Our new fearless owner is not on the list.

Nolan Ryan to leave Texas?

Here's some strange news out of the Metroplex over the weekend that Randy Galloway has apparently sourced and confirmed enough that it's no longer rumor: Nolan Ryan may be out with the Rangers - maybe by the end of the month.

And, if I'm reading this right, it's all because of a power struggle between Jon Daniels and the ownership group in light of a press release that talked about everybody's shift in responsibility...everybody except Nolan Ryan.

What does this mean for Houston? Nothing, well, perhaps nothing. Galloway does manage to work in an Astros reference to the piece:

"And then there's the Houston Astros, a ballclub in deep, deep trouble at the moment, and a club with a new owner who definitely needs Ryan as a credibility face and force, the same as Tom Hicks did when he hired Ryan in Arlington."

Weird, right?

There's not much really to comment on. I'm not going to sit here and clap with glee about the "problems" with Nolan Ryan, because as much tongue-in-cheek "Traitor!" crap we give him, Ryan has earned the right to be treated like baseball royalty. If he gets ousted in Arlington, he's certainly more than welcome to come on back south.


Sunday, March 3, 2013

Astros Inferno: Greed!

We are pinpointing the exact date the Astros have traveled Dante's trip through Hell in The Inferno. Read the archive here
-
So many options. So many choices. At what point do we narrow down the precise moment in time in which Astros fans encountered Greed? 

Here, the prodigal and the avaricious suffer their punishment, as they roll weights back and forth against one another. 

You will share eternal damnation with others who either wasted and lived greedily and insatiably, or who stockpiled their fortunes, hoarding everything and sharing nothing. The two groups roll heavy weights against each other. 

"...I saw multitudes to every side of me; their howls were loud while, wheeling weights, they used their chests to push. They struck against each other; at that point, each turned around and, wheeling back those weights, cried out: Why do you hoard? Why do you squander?" - Dante

Was this date November 17, 2011, when Jim Crane purchased the Astros for $680 $610 million, completing the sale from Drayton McLane as well as the move to the American League? Too early to tell. Should the team return to national discussion (other than from the lazy-nuts media who think it's really funny to not know anything about the Astros, or at least in terms separate from "HERPston you have a problem!"), I imagine we'll sing a different tune about Jim Crane's ownership. 

No. We don't know enough about Crane's tenure as owner to make this call. But there is a date that sticks out in my mind: November 1, 2004. The date that two diametrically oppositional figures in Astros' history stopped rolling their weights against each other and Gerry Hunsicker resigned as general manager of the Astros. 

It was no secret that Hunsicker and McLane did not get along. Yet they ultimately could not overcome their differences, and Hunsicker's departure led to the slow flame-out of the franchise. Hunsicker begat Purpura who begat Wade. 

Drayton owned the team from 1993-2011. In those 19 seasons, the Astros finished with a losing record six times. Four of those six seasons came after Hunsicker left. Why do you hoard? Why do you squander? 

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Business vs. Baseball

Jim Crane has been the owner of the the Houston Astros for over a year now. He has now had one full season and offseason to remake the Astros in his vision. And remake them he did. Nearly everything about the Houston Astros has changed, from the GM to the uniform, as well as the majority of the players. But there seems to me to be an ever growing disconnect between the changes made in the Astros' baseball side and the Astros' business side. One is giving us great hope for the future, and the other often leaves us scratching our heads.

On the baseball side, Crane hired Jeff Luhnow and gave him free rein to rebuild the franchise. Luhnow came over from the Cardinals, where he was integral to the success that franchise experienced, both in the majors and on the farm. Luhnow's hand-picked team has focused on the Astros' minor league system, which was universally ranked among the worst when he took over. The results have been astounding. Through a fantastic draft and many savvy trades, the farm system has improved by leaps and bounds in just a short time. Nearly every national expert now rates the system in the top 10. You might disagree with his vision, but I don't think there is any question that he has been enacting his vision efficiently and effectively.

On the business side, can anyone really tell what is going on? The flubs and head scratchers have been fairly constant from the beginning. They started with the 70 million dollar discount for the move to the AL. There have been ugly billboards blocking the view of the downtown, twitter gaffes, the loss of a beloved broadcaster and questionable claims of poverty. The ongoing negotiations with CSN Houston are threatening to leave a large portion of Houston and the surrounding area unable to watch the Astros.  Recently, people looking for tickets on opening day noticed the ticket prices doubled. The unifying vision of the business side, if there is one, seems to be money. And that is not sitting well.

A lot of these can be viewed as perception problems. There are valid defenses for each one of these moves, and those defenses have been offered. But that misses point. The direction of the baseball side will require patience and faith. In the meantime, we want to know that the Astros care about us, as a fan. We want to know that our loyalty is not being taken for granted. If the Astros have a perception problem with the fans now, whatever the reasons, it could be devastating. A fan lost now might not be regained when the baseball side finally sees results.

For now, the baseball side is still winning over my loyalty. I am still seeing this new ownership as a positive for the Houston Astros, because it is fixing what was broken on the field. But I want to see a unified front. I want to see the baseball side saying be patient, we are working on the future, and the business side saying, we will do everything we can to help you along the way. Right now, those messages seem crossed.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

It's almost Springer Time!

Interesting series of tweets from Brian Smith (who is a must-follow) this morning regarding George Springer and the look he's getting this Spring.

(Pasted into one coherent paragraph):

#Astros prospect George Springer said he's making his first legit spring training start today against #BlueJays. #Astros are very high on George Springer right now and his start isn't a random occurrence. Club wants to give him a full look during ST. There are several options for Springer in 2013. Could start at AA CC and move to AAA OKC. But if he's ready for AAA, he might begin there. #Astros are going to let Springer dictate his immediate future and aren't going to hold him back. When he's ready, they're ready.

Wait. How do I follow the Astros this season?

A new season with a new league and a new manager and new everything. About the only thing that remains the same are the sportswriters who think it's funny to be ignorant about the Astros. The TV deal still isn't resolved, the radio station has changed, and the Chronicle is making you pay $10/month for online content. How are you supposed to follow the Astros this season (aside from your neighborhood Astros blog & grill)?

Video version:

I live in Houston, but I'm one of those poor bastards who can't get CSN Houston. Can I watch the Astros on MLB.tv? 

Ha ha ha. Nope! MLB.tv follows blackout restrictions, so you better hope that G-Post and Crane make a deal with every available provider so you can watch it.

Wait. I don't live in Houston, but in (some other city in Texas, Louisiana, or eastern New Mexico). Am I going to be able to watch Astros games on MLB.tv? 

Ha ha ha. Nope! Because thanks to MLB's blackout map, they seem to think that you should be able to make it down to Minute Maid Park for a 7:05pm start. Even if you live in Amarillo. Now, if you live outside of Texas, Louisiana, or eastern New Mexico, you can totally get MLB.tv and watch the Astros.

That's stupid. Is MLB actively preventing me from being able to watch the Astros, even if I want to pay them $130? 

You're right, yep, and yes.


What is my only hope?

That your television provider pick up CSN Houston.

Can I do something where I hack the location of my computer so that MLB.tv thinks I'm somewhere else? 

Probably. But that's also likely illegal, so there's no way I'm giving you tips on how to do that.

What if I give my dear auntie Rachel who lives in Grand Rapids, Michigan $130 to buy MLB.tv, and I use her login information? 

You know, that might actually work. UPDATE: From some of the comments below, MLBAM checks your IP address from the device you're logging in under - so that won't work if you're in Texas. Just another way MLBAM is trying to keep you from watching Astros games.

Can't I just go to a bar? 

This is America. You can do whatever you set your heart to. But you also have to deal with everyone at Buffalo Wild Wings who yells, "Why are we watching the Astros? I want to play trivia with Dan Patrick!" 

Radio version:

What is this 790 AM thing?

740 KTRH is no longer the flagship home of the Houston Astros, and this is weird. I haven't regularly visited Houston since 2006, and 740 AM is still the #1 pre-set on my car's radio. (The Astros Radio Network station in Temple is the second pre-set, because in driving between Abilene and Houston, I could pick up Astros games in Temple.) But never mind that. How are you supposed to listen to Astros games now? You can see the 790 AM coverage map here.

Thing is, 790 AM is a Clear Channel station. So it stands to reason that Clear Channel stations in other markets will have first pass at broadcasting Astros games. 

Who is a part of the new Astros Radio Network?

Well, here is the list of stations that are a part of the Astros Radio Network (of course this is outdated - it was last updated on March 1, 2012). So I contacted all of the radio stations listed to see if they would be broadcasting Astros games in 2013.

Yes:

Austin - 1300 AM (KVET): They will broadcast Astros games when there isn't a conflict with UT athletics. The station manager said that between 90-100 games were broadcast in 2012.
Bryan/College Station - 1150 AM (KZNE)
Columbus - 98.3 FM (KULM)
Corpus Christi - 1230 AM (KSIX)
Waco - 1010 AM (KBBW)
San Antonio - 760 AM (KTKR)

No:

Minden, LA - 1240 AM (KASO)

Don't Know/They Don't Bother Returning Emails/Phone Calls:

Livingston - 1440 AM (KETX)
Lufkin - 1260 AM (KSML)
McAllen - 1240 AM (KSOX) - From what I understand, they didn't even broadcast games last season, either.
New Orleans - 1560 AM (WSLA)
Shreveport - 1300 AM (KSYB)
Victoria - 1340 AM (KVNN)

What about that IHeartRadio or TuneIn Radio thing?

Nope. MLB Advanced Media has made sure that you cannot access internet streams of live baseball games, in order to get you to buy one of their apps - either Gameday Audio or MLB.tv.

So I live in Houston, but I can't get 790 on my radio (or, I don't even own a freaking radio), will Gameday Audio be blacked out for me?

According to Gameday Audio ($19.95/season), there are no blackout restrictions. So you SHOULD be able to listen to all Astros games on Gameday Audio. The MLB At-Bat app is a little cheaper, and doesn't have the blackout restrictions, as well.

Hey, Chief. I have Sirius/XM. Won't that work?

Oh. Yes. 

Philip Humber hates dolphins

The New York Times had a nice write-up on Astros rotation candidate Philip Humber. Included was this fun little anecdote:


One day, his father gave him cash to buy a souvenir. Humber, who was about 6, decided to purchase the most expensive item he could afford.“It ended up being a little trinket ring, like a championship ring with the Astros’ logo,” Humber said the other day by his locker in the Astros’ clubhouse.“The next part of our vacation, we went to Sea World in San Antonio,” he said. “I had the ring on, and we go into this dolphin exhibit where you can actually get the dolphins to come up to you and touch them.“The ring falls off. It’s loud in this place, and I’m yelling to my dad, ‘I can’t reach it!’ And here comes this dolphin and swallows that ring. Oh, it was devastating, man. I hated dolphins for a long time after that.”

They also discuss his up and down career so far with a little perspective thrown in from Jeff Luhnow and pitching coach Dennis Martinez.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Paul Clemens hurts knee

From a variety of tweets, it looks as though pitcher Paul Clemens has hurt his knee. He apparently slipped off the mound trying to cover first base and "went down hard" according to Brian Smith. He did walk off the field without assistance, but we'll keep an eye on it.

Let's just stop and mention how utterly ridiculous it is that, in a Spring Training where there is an extra week of games, they're even playing this game in the rain. It's one thing to get injured in a freak Spring Training accident (see Castro, Jason), where there's really nothing anybody could have done differently. But to be playing a Spring Training game in the rain? Dumb. 

Update: Bo Porter says Clemens is "fine."

Weekend in Review

This weekend saw the first two real baseball games of the spring season, as the Astros downed the Phillies 8-3 on Saturday and tied the Mets 7-7 on Sunday.

There is almost no predictive value in the very first spring training games, but I don't see why that should stop me from making sweeping predictions. These Bo Porter Astros are going to be aggressive on the base paths. They stole four bases in the opener, adding two more on Sunday, and more than that, routinely took the extra base at nearly every opportunity. This might lead to them running into some outs in the future, but I like the approach. I'd rather this young team make mistakes being aggressive than being passive.

On Saturday, Harrell was off his game somewhat, but this early that's nothing to be concerned about. The Astros hitters weren't really able to get anything going against Hamels either. In the later innings, however, nearly everyone got into the action. Robbie Grossman was a real star going  2-3 with a double and 2 rbi. I would be thrilled if Grossman forced himself onto the team with a strong spring. Another highlight was Jarred Cosart with 2 easy innings, including a strikeout of Ryan Howard that was a beauty to watch.

The Sunday afternoon game started off a little rough, with Norris, Veras and Peacock getting roughed up to varying degrees, leading to a 6-1 deficit after the top half of the 4th. Again, this early, I wouldn't really be concerned. After that, the Astros clawed their way back, with help from a Castro home run and some great base running from Delino DeShields. In the 5th, DeShields pinch ran for Wallace, stole second, advanced to third on the errant throw, and then scored on a wild pitch. In the bottom of the 9th, down 7-6, George Springer drove in Jake Elmore to tie it up. Springer had a great day at the plate - going 1-1 with 2 walks. I for one could get used to DeShields making things happen on the base paths and Springer driving in runs, but I think we will have to wait a while to see that happen in the big leagues.

It was great seeing real live baseball on my TV again, and it always feels good to beat the Phillies, even in Spring Training. All in all, a great start to the 2013 season.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Lineup posted for Saturday's ST1

New broadcaster Robert Ford (who actually is quite entertaining on Twitter) posted the lineup card for the first 2013 Astros Spring Training game. Your lineup:

1. Tyler Greene - SS
2. Marwin Gonzalez - 2B
3. Justin Maxwell - CF
4. Chris Carter - 1B
5. Fernando Martinez - LF
6. Nate Freiman - DH
7. Matt Dominguez - 3B
8. Carlos Corporan - C
9. Justin Trevor Crowe - RF (I went to college with a "Justin Crowe")

Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace, and Carlos Pena are all fine - apparently it's just a scheduled Rest Day for all three. 

Astros were interested in Dom Brown

Not really "News" per se, but the Astros are reported to have had trade talks with the Phillies involving the OF Charlie Manuel Loves To Hate - Domonic Brown. But they, uh, of course, didn't.

In 492 Major-League PAs, Brown has hit .236/.315/.388 for the Phillies. In seven minor-league seasons, however, Brown posted a .296/.373/.461 line.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Bovada sets Astros win O/U at 59.5

Here is the Twitpic of the 2013 season win over/under from Bovada. The Astros' O/U is 59.5 wins. How that compares to the rest of the AL:

Detroit: 92.5
LA Angels: 92.5
NY Yankees: 88.5
Toronto: 87.5
Tampa Bay: 86.5
Texas: 86.5
Oakland: 83.5
Boston: 82.5
Chicago White Sox: 80.5
Baltimore: 78.5
Kansas City: 78.5
Seattle: 77.5
Cleveland: 76.5
Minnesota: 67.5
Houston: 59.5

So, as far as Over/Unders go, the Astros are eight games worse than the next-to-worst team in the AL. Only the Marlins come in under the Twins, with their O/U win total set at 63.5.

Thoughts?

Baseball America on Rio Ruiz

Baseball America asked their writers to pick a player who could jump on to the 2014 BA Top 100 Prospect list. Nathan Rode chose 2012 4th Round pick Rio Ruiz. Click the link for the whole thing, but here's your money quote:

He has tremendous strength in his wrist and hands, leading to a good feel for hitting and plus raw power. Like a lot of high school players, he needs polish, but he has the ability to be an average hitter with at least average power in games.

Lance Berkman already hurt

Anyone who had "February 20" in the When Will Lance Berkman Get Hurt pool can come collect your money at the window. Our old pal Evan Grant tweeted this morning that Lance has a mild right calf strain, and that he "says it is just slightly more than usual soreness."


Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Ah hell, here we go.

I was waiting on it. I spent two weeks waiting on it. But here we are.

Fernando Martinez, potential Astros outfielder, has been linked to the Miami-based Biogenesis clinic which has already prompted denials from Alex Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Melky Cabrera, among others.

Martinez, who has spent more time on the DL than he has on an active roster*, apparently/allegedly owes Tony Bosch $4000 - $2000 in each February and March 2012.

The Astros have no comment.

*more or less

The Chronicle's Brian Smith notes that Martinez is represented by ACES, owned by Seth and Sam Levinson. Ten of the 25 players implicated in the Biogenesis "scandal/non-scandal" are ACES clients.

When Drayton almost moved the Astros to Virginia

Maybe you remember, maybe you don't. I had to spend some time taking some hate-filled trips down Memory Lane to get the full story in my mind of when Drayton almost sold the Astros to D.C. businessman Bill Collins, whereupon he would move the Astros to northern Virginia.

On October 18, 1995 owner Drayton McLane confirmed the possibility that he had discussed the possibility of selling the team to a group headed by telecom magnate Bill Collins "on three occasions" with the expressed intentions of relocating the franchise to Virginia. Collins had previously attempted to buy the Pirates, Expos, Mariners, and Giants.

The AP report said that "dismal fan support is forcing McLane to consider a sale simply to protect his personal fortune." Among Drayton's claims:

1) He personally lost $65 million in the three years after buying the team from Dr. John McMullen
2) McLane could lose $20 million in 1996.

McLane told the AP:
"I have visited with Bill Collins but it is premature to draw any conclusions from our talks...If we had just been able to break even, this would not be an issue. We have to face reality. I'm not sure whether Houston can be a baseball town in today's financial situation with the game."

This prompted Mayor Bob Lanier and Harris County officials to meet with Drayton the following week. Lanier:
"I think the community needs to help him, and I want to help him as best I can...If we want to keep the Astros, if they are important to this community...it just comes down to people buying season tickets."

Drayton gave the city two weeks to demonstrate the fan support necessary for Drayton not to sell the team, and keep them in Houston.

Yet within that two week window, ESPN and the Washington Post both reported on October 27, 1995 that Drayton had agreed to sell the Astros to Bill Collins for $150 million. George Barton, of the Virginia Baseball Stadium Authority, was quoted as saying "an agreement has been made. There has been a handshake." Denials were made, and "vigorously."

While NL officials were qualifying the deal as in its infancy - McLane hadn't been given permission to even start negotiating - he was still at least asking for permission. (Interestingly enough, in the previously linked NYT story, the Astros had just interviewed Gerry Hunsicker - the Mets' assistant vice president of baseball operations - for the open GM job.

On November 7, we got an update. McLane was alleged to demand the sale of at least 25,000 season tickets to keep the Astros in Houston (who averaged approximately 19,000 fans in the strike-shortened season). McLane's attendance goal was between 30,000-35,000.

Mayor Lanier and Harris County Judge Robert Eckels created a committee to study the possibility of building a new stadium downtown, but Eckels didn't sound optimistic:
"I have no idea what is going to happen. I'm hoping to talk with him before making a decision."

McLane met with two U.S. Representatives and complained further about "losing money:"
"The question is: Do the people of Houston really want to support a major-league baseball team? And if not, the team should go elsewhere."

McLane wanted serious improvements made to the Astrodome, but said in late October that a retractable-roof stadium would be the most ideal option for the team.

Negotiations dragged on for almost a year. 48 of the 81 home games at the Astrodome saw attendance over 20,000 as the Astros finished 82-80, 2nd in the NL Central.

Early on September 13, 1996, McLane told the AP:
"We made a lot of progress in the last two days, so we hope we could reach some agreement in the next three days. I'm very confident that we can. But if we can't, we would move forward."

He told the Chronicle that he wanted $20m - payable over three years - to cover his estimated losses  until financing for the stadium was approved. This was double what Judge Eckels was willing to pay. If this was not agreed to, McLane would resume negotiations with Bill Collins.

Later that day McLane and Houston/Harris County officials struck a deal to keep the Astros in Houston for 30 years in a downtown stadium.

A November 1996 referendum passed in Harris County with only 51% of the vote (out of over 775,000 votes, it passed by under 17,000 votes) to construct a $265m stadium downtown - which was enough to keep McLane happy, and keep the Astros in Houston. McLane said:
 "This will keep baseball here well into the next century. This is something we had to have to be competitive and I'll be happy to tell the other owners that we're moving forward in Houston."

And that, friends, is how Uncle Drayton held Houston hostage until they agreed to build him a shiny new stadium, on which construction began on October 31, 1997 and Enron Field opened on April 7, 2000.

Jordan Schafer was "excited" to leave Houston

Trust me, broheim, the feeling is mutual.

Jordan Schafer told MLB.com yesterday that he just couldn't handle all the losing in Houston in 2012:
"I was excited just to get out of that situation. More than anything, I couldn't take that much losing. I've never lost at anything like that. It was kind of like you were just expected to lose. ... That's just not a good feeling."

Oh, but wait. He's changed! He's more mature! Not as much swagger! (Basically the same thing we were told about Schafer heading into 2012). Yes, the Astros were expected to lose a lot. And, yes, it had a little to do with the CF posting up a .591 OPS. 

Tuesday Lunchtime Link Dump

Here's your Tuesday Lunchtime Link Dump:

*The Astros never made an offer to Lance Berkman:
"I totally understand and it was probably the right thing to do given the plan that they have in place.”

*The New York Post is butt-hurt about the Astros' potential impact on the AL Wild Card race. 

*Players in whom the Astros are not interested (somehow this is news-worthy): Vlad Guerrero, Mike Carp.

*Roger Clemens has no plans to coach or manage.

*Jordan Lyles hasn't been assured of a rotation spot.

*Carlos Pena is mentoring Chris Carter.

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects

Baseball America posted their Top 100 prospects list today, and my my, there's some good news for Astros fans:

Carlos Correa - #13
Jon Singleton - #27
George Springer - #37
Lance McCullers - #50
Delino DeShields, Jr - #99

The Cardinals, Marlins, and Twins have six prospects each on the Top 100 list while the Astros join the D-amon-b--ks, Mariners, Pirates, Rays and Red Sox with five each. The Rangers have three prospects on the Top 100 list (including #1 overall prospect Jurickson Profar) while the Angels and A's have one each. 




The Identity of the Astros

The following comment was left on Astros County's post on the rebuild. I really felt like it was worth addressing. 

"But with the major differences in rules and strategy between the two leagues in baseball, the Astros switching leagues is a very good reason to dump the team. And honestly I believe if you continue to support the team then you were never a true fan to begin with because the REAL Astros died last year. The REAL Astros are a NL team. Any AL version is just a zombie version of the real Astros were no matter how successful they become after the switch. They aren't the same team or the same franchise. And honestly anybody who supports them is a traitor to the city of Houston and should just pack their bags and move to Dallas."


That is preposterous. Being a fan is irrational at its core, and so its all right if you stop rooting for the Astros for any reason at all. It doesn't make you a bad person. But don't try to justify it. Don't try to rationalize it. Admit that YOU are abandoning the team, not the other way around. The Astros will still be playing at Minute Maid Park. They will be decked out in Orange and Blue, which is what they should have been wearing this whole time. The NL Championship banner from 2005 will still be flying. Numbers 5 and 7 will still be retired, along with 24, 25, 32, 33, 34, 40 and 49. The team that gave us so many great memories, and so much heartache, will still be ready to give us more of both. They aren't leaving. If you leave, fine. But don't blame them. 


Unless you think that the true identity of the Astros is solely wrapped up into whether Bud Norris hits for himself. Unless you think that the most important part of all of that history is the fact that for all of the years, the Astros pitchers were hitting for themselves. For all the talk of the differences between the AL and NL, there really is only one. In 1973 the American League added the Designated Hitter. I have never liked it. I still don't like it. But, they still play baseball. There are still 9 innings, four balls and three strikes. And the Astros are still the Astros. 


The Astros are more than just the pitcher hitting. They are bigger than Jim Crane. They are bigger than any league switch. If the Astros defected from the U.S. Major Leagues to join the Nippon Profession League, I would follow (weirder start times, but no DH). If you can't bring yourself to watch Carlos Pena (or whoever, not really clear on that yet) hit for Norris, that's your prerogative. As for me, I am hoping for an AL Championship banner to hang next to that NL one in the near future. And I don't think that makes me a bad fan. Quite the opposite, in fact.  

Monday, February 18, 2013

Survivor: Kissimmee - Feb 18

Totally lost track of the days, so here are your Monday morning updates from Kissimmee.

9:30am: It is revealed that Axel from The Walking Dead was once a scout for the Astros.

8:47am: Bo Porter says Chris Carter has the potential to be a "game-changer."

8:39am: Bud Norris has had a death in the family, and will fly back to California today.

7:41am: Hector Ambriz (ankle) is out of his protective boot today, and will make some throws.

7:29am: Roger Clemens is in camp! (Longer article here)

12:24am: Your ST1 starter on Saturday against Philadelphia will be Lucas Harrell, with Bud Norris getting the ST2 start on Sunday.

From what looks like it was posted a few days ago, listen to this Sirius XM interview with Jeff Luhnow on the Astros.