*Back in September it was reported that the Astros had come to a $5.15m agreement with Cuban LHP Cionel Perez - the largest contract awarded to an amateur international free agent in franchise history. Perez, MLB.com's 4th-ranked international prospect, was set to be introduced to the media last week after passing his physical. But there was an issue with the physical that led to the Astros voiding that deal. They could still work out another contract with him.
*Jake Marisnick will be a Super Two player, eligible for an extra year of arbitration.
*There will still be baseball in Kissimmee after the Astros leave, as the Atlanta affiliate Brevard County Manatees move to Osceola County Stadium and rebrand as the Kissimmee Fire Frogs.
*SHOULD OF DRAFFTED KILE SHWARBUR NOT BRAIDY AKEN.
*For those of you looking for the Astros to improve at a corner outfield spot, Yoenis Cespedes is expected to opt out of the remaining 2yrs/$47.5m of his Mets contract and explore free agency. Jon Heyman says he could very well return to the Mets, but with a possible nine-figure deal on the table, who knows?
*Joe Maddon says that Jason Heyward and his $184m contract are a big part of the Cubs' plans going forward.
*Former Astros great Lucas Harrell has been outrighted by the East Abilene Rangers.
*Cleveland beat writer Paul Hoynes wrote off the Indians in September after losing Carrasco and Salazar. Yesterday he jumped in Lake Erie.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label Lucas Harrell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lucas Harrell. Show all posts
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Thursday, July 28, 2016
Thursday Morning Hot Links
The Astros beat the Yankees last night behind yet another strong Lance McCullers outing.
*Rasmus came alive last night, snapping an 0x29 slump and a career-high seven-game hitless streak. Rasmus:
Any time you get a hit or a home run or whatever, just to help the boys is great. Especially as much as I've been letting us down, to be able to do that against the Yankees in a game we needed to win, since they beat us the first two, I'm thankful and happy to do it.
*Rasmus has a cyst on his inner ear that will require surgery.
*Carlos Gomez joins Luis Valbuena with a strained hamstring. Now with the possibility of just one healthy player on the bench, Hinch says a move will likely be made, but it's an easy move:
...We're expecting to put Fister on paternity leave soon. His wife is going to deliver his first child in the next couple of days, so we might have a transaction in Detroit that will probably be a position player.
*AL West: the A's beat the Rangers, the Pirates beat the Mariners, the Royals beat the Angels.
-Red Oak: -
-Houston: -2.5
-Seattle: -6
-Golden State: -11
-Anaheim: -12.5
*Wild Card Watch: the Padres beat the Blue Jays, the Tigers beat the Red Sox.
-Toronto: +0.5
-Boston: -0
-Houston: -1
*FanGraphs has the Astros at 45.7% to win the division (Ramgers at 45.6%) and 62.9% to make the playoffs.
*BP has the Astros at 36.5% to win the division (Ramgers at 50.6%) and 58.2% to make the playoffs.
*FiveThirtyEight has the Astros at 39% to win the division (Ramgers at 52%) and 58% to make the playoffs.
*The County Mountie wrote up Round 3 of potential Astros trade targets.
*I wrote about the life and times of Rangers great Lucas Harrell.
*Trade talks are picking up on Brewers' catcher Jonathan Lucroy, and the Astros are apparently in the mix.
*Ken Rosenthal wrote that the Astros might be okay with letting Gattis be the catcher next year and to find a backup elsewhere, searching instead for pitching.
*Today's Knuckleball writes that Castro is the best catcher in the AL.
*MLB.com updated their prospect rankings for the midseason, and here's where we are:
Bregman (#1, yes, the #1 prospect in baseball), A.J. Reed (#38), Francis Martes (#41), Forrest Whitley (#85), David Paulino (#86), Joe Musgrove (#87), Kyle Tucker (#93).
Houston also is ranked as the 5th-best system in baseball by MLB.com.
*Francis Martes' line last night: 7IP, 1H/0ER, 9K:1BB.
*Sean Pendergast has the 10 Most Important Trades in Astros history.
*Eno Sarris has what it's like to get traded, from a player's perspective.
ERA leaders in the AL the last 10 years among starters age 22 and under. Lance McCullers tops the list. pic.twitter.com/4nz5ey2Ox7— Matt Hammond (@MattHammondShow) July 28, 2016
*McCullers' 11.79 K/9 is #onpaceto set the franchise record by Nolan Ryan, who had an 11.48 K/9 in 1987.Career ERA coming into today:— Ryan M. Spaeder (@theaceofspaeder) July 28, 2016
Lance McCullers Sr. 3.25
Lance McCullers Jr. 3.26
Updated:
Lance McCullers Jr. 3.21
Lance McCullers Sr. 3.25
When Lance McCullers gets his spin rate above 3000 RPMs on his curve batters are 4 for 40 with 25 strike outs.— Daren Willman (@darenw) July 28, 2016
*Rasmus came alive last night, snapping an 0x29 slump and a career-high seven-game hitless streak. Rasmus:
Any time you get a hit or a home run or whatever, just to help the boys is great. Especially as much as I've been letting us down, to be able to do that against the Yankees in a game we needed to win, since they beat us the first two, I'm thankful and happy to do it.
*Rasmus has a cyst on his inner ear that will require surgery.
*Carlos Gomez joins Luis Valbuena with a strained hamstring. Now with the possibility of just one healthy player on the bench, Hinch says a move will likely be made, but it's an easy move:
...We're expecting to put Fister on paternity leave soon. His wife is going to deliver his first child in the next couple of days, so we might have a transaction in Detroit that will probably be a position player.
*AL West: the A's beat the Rangers, the Pirates beat the Mariners, the Royals beat the Angels.
-Red Oak: -
-Houston: -2.5
-Seattle: -6
-Golden State: -11
-Anaheim: -12.5
*Wild Card Watch: the Padres beat the Blue Jays, the Tigers beat the Red Sox.
-Toronto: +0.5
-Boston: -0
-Houston: -1
*FanGraphs has the Astros at 45.7% to win the division (Ramgers at 45.6%) and 62.9% to make the playoffs.
*BP has the Astros at 36.5% to win the division (Ramgers at 50.6%) and 58.2% to make the playoffs.
*FiveThirtyEight has the Astros at 39% to win the division (Ramgers at 52%) and 58% to make the playoffs.
*The County Mountie wrote up Round 3 of potential Astros trade targets.
*I wrote about the life and times of Rangers great Lucas Harrell.
*Trade talks are picking up on Brewers' catcher Jonathan Lucroy, and the Astros are apparently in the mix.
*Ken Rosenthal wrote that the Astros might be okay with letting Gattis be the catcher next year and to find a backup elsewhere, searching instead for pitching.
*Today's Knuckleball writes that Castro is the best catcher in the AL.
*MLB.com updated their prospect rankings for the midseason, and here's where we are:
Bregman (#1, yes, the #1 prospect in baseball), A.J. Reed (#38), Francis Martes (#41), Forrest Whitley (#85), David Paulino (#86), Joe Musgrove (#87), Kyle Tucker (#93).
Houston also is ranked as the 5th-best system in baseball by MLB.com.
*Francis Martes' line last night: 7IP, 1H/0ER, 9K:1BB.
*Sean Pendergast has the 10 Most Important Trades in Astros history.
*Eno Sarris has what it's like to get traded, from a player's perspective.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
The Life and Times of Former SP2 Lucas Harrell
Ahhh Lucas Harrell. One of those "chicken s**t into Egyptian cotton" waiver claims by Easy Eddie Wade, on to whom he held too long. Let's go back and reminisce.
The Astros claimed Harrell off of waivers on July 8, 2011 from the White Sox, with whom he had been a 2004 4th Round draft pick. Why? Well, the White Sox weren't 100% sure what to do with him. In 2010 Harrell made his major-league debut and pitched in eight games for Chicago. He started three games, he finished three games, and appeared in relief in the other two without finishing the games, even though every single appearance to that point in his career in the minors had been as a starter. In 2009 he posted a 12-4 record between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.27 ERA/1.40 WHIP.
Harrell made a spot start for Chicago on July 30, 2010 for his major-league debut. In 6IP, he allowed 4H/1ER, 1K:5BB, throwing 50 of his 98 pitches for strikes in a 6-1 win over Oakland. Sent back down following the game, he came back up on August 28 and got both batters he faced in a 12-9 loss to the Yankees.
He allowed four unearned runs in relief at Detroit on September 7, sporting a healthy 0.84 ERA after 10.2IP career MLB innings. He started the next two games and in 8.1IP allowed 17H/9ER, 6K:5BB.
He allowed one earned run in the remaining three relief appearances in 2010 as the White Sox finished 88-74, six games behind the Twins for 2nd in the AL Central, and seven behind the Yankees for the Wild Card.
In three relief appearances for the White Sox in 2011 (5IP), he allowed 11H/4ER, 5K:1BB, and the White Sox placed him on waivers. Enter the Houston Astros, who claimed him on July 8, 2011. That night the Astros lost 6-3 at Florida (now Miami) to fall to 30-60, 18 games back, with a lineup of Bourn, Angel Sanchez, Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, Jeff Keppinger, Brett Wallace, Clint Barmes, Carlos Corporan, and Jordan Lyles.
The Lucas Harrell era had begun and things, fam, were truly lit. We wondered which OKC starter's job Harrell was going to take.
Harrell made his Astros debut as a September call-up on September 2. In 5.1IP, he allowed 3H/0ER, 4K:2BB against the Brewers, a game that Milwaukee would of course win 8-2 because Goatpen. He appeared in relief for the next three appearances, allowing 2H/2ER, 3K:4BB in 3.2IP. Whatever, they were about to lose 106 games, so who cared? On September 25, Harrell allowed 7H/5R (3ER), 1K:1BB in what would be a 19-3 Colorado win in which Harrell was yanked after 3+IP. In nine major league appearances between Chicago and Houston in 2011, his teams went 0-9 when he pitched.
Harrell impressed the club in Spring Training 2012 and beat out Jordan Lyles for a spot in the rotation. He was SP2 when the 2012 season opened, and he actually pitched pretty well. The high-water mark of his season was that opening start when he allowed 3H/0ER, 4K:0BB in 7IP in a 7-3 Astros win. But he still had 14 quality starts, and the Astros went 14-18 in games he started, and considering the Astros only won 55 games in 2012, that was pretty impressive.
But there were some makeup questions emerging. Harrell struggled in September 2012, and blamed the fact that the Astros were going with a 6-Man Rotation, saying, "It's a little too much time. I'm a touch and feel guy. I need to be out there a lot more."
In 2013 Harrell completely backtracked. After a 6-2 loss to the Tigers on May 14 in which he allowed 7H/5ER, 1K:3BB, Harrell complained about the use of defensive shifts:
We're trying some new things with our defense, and I thought they worked against me tonight. The ball that Dirks hit was up there forever, and I thought someone might have caught that one. He hit it hard, and that's my fault, but I was hoping someone would get there.
Worse, Bo Porter didn't find out about the complaining until the next day. He told Harrell before the game the next day:
Listen, if you have something to say, and you want to voice your opinion, I have a complete open-door policy.
He won six games and lost a league-leading 17 games for the 111-loss Astros and that includes the time he got bumped out of the rotation in July. The Astros looked into trading him prior to the deadline. At the end of the season he had an 89K:88BB line in 153.2IP. His WHIP increased from 1.36 to 1.71. His HR/9 doubled. Walks were up, strikeouts were down. We compared Harrell's 2013 season to Brandon Backe's 2008 season.
When he got bumped from the rotation, he was pissed and told Brian T. Smith that he "didn't want to talk about it." And then he did want to talk about it about getting bumped from the rotation:
I'm tied with Felix Hernandez for 10 starts with one run or less in all of baseball. I think that's kind of touch to move a guy like that down to the bullpen. But they make the decision so it's their call...I feel like I've been pretty durable and I've given a lot.
Four days after his bullpen shift, Harrell allowed 4H/2ER, 0K:2BB in 3IP in relief of Bud Norris at St. Louis. Harrell and Jordan Lyles got into a "heated clubhouse confrontation." All parties said the right things after the fact - the Chronicle didn't report on it for five days - about moving on and teammates being teammates and whatnot. But still Harrell stayed on the team. He would only start three more games, throwing 10.2IP, 16H/18ER, 7K:10BB.
He was bad in 2013. Real bad. Many players privately noted* that Harrell was their favorite teammate that season because he was the worst player on the team, and took some of the spotlight off of them.
*No link here because it's from a reliable SOURCE
There was the time he asked a media outlet not to use a picture of him because he had a hickey on his neck. That's not so much a black eye as it is an eye roll.
He was designated for assignment after his April 15, 2014 start in which he allowed 5H/4ER, 4K:3BB to the Royals (Robbie Grossman was optioned to OKC the same night) to make room for George Springer. Harrell finished his season with a 9.49 ERA/2.27 WHIP. Two weeks later he was traded for cash considerations to Arizona. He didn't appear for the major-league club and signed with a Korean team for the 2015 season.
Harrell signed with the Tigers as a free agent in March 2016, was released on May 16, and signed with the rebuilding Braves four days later. In five starts with the Braves recaptured some of his devil magic. On July 2 he threw 6IP, 3H/1ER, 5K:1BB. On July 7 he held the Cubs to 4H/1ER, 5K:2BB in 7.2IP. His next two starts were a little rockier as he allowed 7H/7R (5ER), 4K:3BB to Colorado (get it?) and 7H/4ER, 3K:3BB at Cincinnati. However, last night (July 26) he started at Minnesota and allowed 4H/0ER, 4K:3BB.
Naturally today the Rangers traded their 20th-best prospect, Travis Demeritte, to Atlanta for Harrell and reliever Dario Alvarez. Harrell would be scheduled to pitch on Sunday. If that schedule holds, Harrell would be in line to make a start at Houston in the August 5-7 series. Hoo boy.
The Astros claimed Harrell off of waivers on July 8, 2011 from the White Sox, with whom he had been a 2004 4th Round draft pick. Why? Well, the White Sox weren't 100% sure what to do with him. In 2010 Harrell made his major-league debut and pitched in eight games for Chicago. He started three games, he finished three games, and appeared in relief in the other two without finishing the games, even though every single appearance to that point in his career in the minors had been as a starter. In 2009 he posted a 12-4 record between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.27 ERA/1.40 WHIP.
Harrell made a spot start for Chicago on July 30, 2010 for his major-league debut. In 6IP, he allowed 4H/1ER, 1K:5BB, throwing 50 of his 98 pitches for strikes in a 6-1 win over Oakland. Sent back down following the game, he came back up on August 28 and got both batters he faced in a 12-9 loss to the Yankees.
He allowed four unearned runs in relief at Detroit on September 7, sporting a healthy 0.84 ERA after 10.2IP career MLB innings. He started the next two games and in 8.1IP allowed 17H/9ER, 6K:5BB.
He allowed one earned run in the remaining three relief appearances in 2010 as the White Sox finished 88-74, six games behind the Twins for 2nd in the AL Central, and seven behind the Yankees for the Wild Card.
In three relief appearances for the White Sox in 2011 (5IP), he allowed 11H/4ER, 5K:1BB, and the White Sox placed him on waivers. Enter the Houston Astros, who claimed him on July 8, 2011. That night the Astros lost 6-3 at Florida (now Miami) to fall to 30-60, 18 games back, with a lineup of Bourn, Angel Sanchez, Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, Jeff Keppinger, Brett Wallace, Clint Barmes, Carlos Corporan, and Jordan Lyles.
The Lucas Harrell era had begun and things, fam, were truly lit. We wondered which OKC starter's job Harrell was going to take.
Harrell made his Astros debut as a September call-up on September 2. In 5.1IP, he allowed 3H/0ER, 4K:2BB against the Brewers, a game that Milwaukee would of course win 8-2 because Goatpen. He appeared in relief for the next three appearances, allowing 2H/2ER, 3K:4BB in 3.2IP. Whatever, they were about to lose 106 games, so who cared? On September 25, Harrell allowed 7H/5R (3ER), 1K:1BB in what would be a 19-3 Colorado win in which Harrell was yanked after 3+IP. In nine major league appearances between Chicago and Houston in 2011, his teams went 0-9 when he pitched.
Harrell impressed the club in Spring Training 2012 and beat out Jordan Lyles for a spot in the rotation. He was SP2 when the 2012 season opened, and he actually pitched pretty well. The high-water mark of his season was that opening start when he allowed 3H/0ER, 4K:0BB in 7IP in a 7-3 Astros win. But he still had 14 quality starts, and the Astros went 14-18 in games he started, and considering the Astros only won 55 games in 2012, that was pretty impressive.
But there were some makeup questions emerging. Harrell struggled in September 2012, and blamed the fact that the Astros were going with a 6-Man Rotation, saying, "It's a little too much time. I'm a touch and feel guy. I need to be out there a lot more."
In 2013 Harrell completely backtracked. After a 6-2 loss to the Tigers on May 14 in which he allowed 7H/5ER, 1K:3BB, Harrell complained about the use of defensive shifts:
We're trying some new things with our defense, and I thought they worked against me tonight. The ball that Dirks hit was up there forever, and I thought someone might have caught that one. He hit it hard, and that's my fault, but I was hoping someone would get there.
Worse, Bo Porter didn't find out about the complaining until the next day. He told Harrell before the game the next day:
Listen, if you have something to say, and you want to voice your opinion, I have a complete open-door policy.
He won six games and lost a league-leading 17 games for the 111-loss Astros and that includes the time he got bumped out of the rotation in July. The Astros looked into trading him prior to the deadline. At the end of the season he had an 89K:88BB line in 153.2IP. His WHIP increased from 1.36 to 1.71. His HR/9 doubled. Walks were up, strikeouts were down. We compared Harrell's 2013 season to Brandon Backe's 2008 season.
When he got bumped from the rotation, he was pissed and told Brian T. Smith that he "didn't want to talk about it." And then he did want to talk about it about getting bumped from the rotation:
I'm tied with Felix Hernandez for 10 starts with one run or less in all of baseball. I think that's kind of touch to move a guy like that down to the bullpen. But they make the decision so it's their call...I feel like I've been pretty durable and I've given a lot.
Four days after his bullpen shift, Harrell allowed 4H/2ER, 0K:2BB in 3IP in relief of Bud Norris at St. Louis. Harrell and Jordan Lyles got into a "heated clubhouse confrontation." All parties said the right things after the fact - the Chronicle didn't report on it for five days - about moving on and teammates being teammates and whatnot. But still Harrell stayed on the team. He would only start three more games, throwing 10.2IP, 16H/18ER, 7K:10BB.
He was bad in 2013. Real bad. Many players privately noted* that Harrell was their favorite teammate that season because he was the worst player on the team, and took some of the spotlight off of them.
*No link here because it's from a reliable SOURCE
There was the time he asked a media outlet not to use a picture of him because he had a hickey on his neck. That's not so much a black eye as it is an eye roll.
He was designated for assignment after his April 15, 2014 start in which he allowed 5H/4ER, 4K:3BB to the Royals (Robbie Grossman was optioned to OKC the same night) to make room for George Springer. Harrell finished his season with a 9.49 ERA/2.27 WHIP. Two weeks later he was traded for cash considerations to Arizona. He didn't appear for the major-league club and signed with a Korean team for the 2015 season.
Harrell signed with the Tigers as a free agent in March 2016, was released on May 16, and signed with the rebuilding Braves four days later. In five starts with the Braves recaptured some of his devil magic. On July 2 he threw 6IP, 3H/1ER, 5K:1BB. On July 7 he held the Cubs to 4H/1ER, 5K:2BB in 7.2IP. His next two starts were a little rockier as he allowed 7H/7R (5ER), 4K:3BB to Colorado (get it?) and 7H/4ER, 3K:3BB at Cincinnati. However, last night (July 26) he started at Minnesota and allowed 4H/0ER, 4K:3BB.
Naturally today the Rangers traded their 20th-best prospect, Travis Demeritte, to Atlanta for Harrell and reliever Dario Alvarez. Harrell would be scheduled to pitch on Sunday. If that schedule holds, Harrell would be in line to make a start at Houston in the August 5-7 series. Hoo boy.
Monday, June 15, 2015
Monday Morning Hot Links
The Astros have a 2.5 game lead on the Rangers in the AL West through 39.5% of the season.
*The must-read of the morning on yesterday's 13-0 beating of the Mariners comes not from any Astros-related site, it comes from Mariners blog Lookout Landing, and not because of schadenfreude, but because this is an excellent recap of one game in the grand scheme of things.
*Lance McCullers threw five no-hit innings despite not having his best stuff, says Lance McCullers:
I had to battle from the first pitch on, and I knew that. I knew I didn't have the same stuff I usually have, but thankfully I had good defense and (Conger) helped me battle through.
*Jose Altuve, whose hamstring was a sacrifice to Tal's Hill in order to break the 7-game losing streak, has begun light running.
*The return of Jed Lowrie will serve as one of the Astros' "key July acquisitions," though he likely won't be playing shortstop when he returns. A.J. Hinch:
Personally, he's played a lot of different positions...so I won't deal with that until he's (doing baseball activities).
*The Houston Press' John Royal says the CSN Houston lawsuit is "nonsense"
*Brad Peacock is back in Houston for re-evaluation after aggravating something during his rehab start in Corpus
*Lucas Harrell was released by his Korean League team
*Not Hank's wife wrote a post for Father's Day
*Reminder: We're updating signings and numbers from the 2015 draft as we find them
*The must-read of the morning on yesterday's 13-0 beating of the Mariners comes not from any Astros-related site, it comes from Mariners blog Lookout Landing, and not because of schadenfreude, but because this is an excellent recap of one game in the grand scheme of things.
*Lance McCullers threw five no-hit innings despite not having his best stuff, says Lance McCullers:
I had to battle from the first pitch on, and I knew that. I knew I didn't have the same stuff I usually have, but thankfully I had good defense and (Conger) helped me battle through.
*Jose Altuve, whose hamstring was a sacrifice to Tal's Hill in order to break the 7-game losing streak, has begun light running.
*The return of Jed Lowrie will serve as one of the Astros' "key July acquisitions," though he likely won't be playing shortstop when he returns. A.J. Hinch:
Personally, he's played a lot of different positions...so I won't deal with that until he's (doing baseball activities).
*The Houston Press' John Royal says the CSN Houston lawsuit is "nonsense"
*Brad Peacock is back in Houston for re-evaluation after aggravating something during his rehab start in Corpus
*Lucas Harrell was released by his Korean League team
*Not Hank's wife wrote a post for Father's Day
*Reminder: We're updating signings and numbers from the 2015 draft as we find them
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Annyong, Lucas Harrell
Fans of Arrested Development (1:51 in this video) may randomly happen to know that "annyong" is Korean for "hello". Lucas Harrell may need to know this, because he has recently signed with a Korean team, the LG Twins. I wonder whether Harrell knew that he would eventually become a baseballing Twin, but he probably didn't predict that it would be in Korea. Jim Adduci, formerly of the Texas Rangers, is also going to Korea, but playing for a different team (Lotte Giants).
When we last checked in with Lucas Harrell, he was doing OK in Reno, having thrown 44 frames with an ERA of 3.89 in an offence-friendly environment. Things went a little south from there, because he finished his season - and possibly his baseball career in North America - at 106 innings at an ERA of 5.15. His WHIP was a hefty 1.800, by virtue of him giving up more than a hit an inning (115) and walking more than he struck out (77 walks versus 66 strikeouts). He was released by the Diamondbacks prior to the end of the season.
Astros fans may think that his career cratered after 2012, but really, it was 2012 that was the outlier. It was the only year where he had a reasonable FIP (3.75) in which he pitched more than 18 innings. The FIP's in the other years where he threw greater than 18 innings were 5.04 (2010, in 24IP) and 5.42 (2013, in 153IP). In smaller samples, he had a great 2011 (2.86 FIP in 18IP) and a disastrous 2014 (5.97 FIP in 12IP). Astros fans remember 2014 altogether too well.
As 2013 slid into 2014, and Harrell's struggles worsened, he developed a less-than-stellar reputation. I don't put too much emphasis on clubhouse stories like those linked, because repeatedly throwing meatballs and getting continuously lit-up in the biggest possible baseball stage would be a severe test of anyone's character. Just ask Mark Appel. However, there was a time when pundits thought that the Astros were going to turn a waiver-wire acquisition into some pretty good players. (As an aside, check out the first comment of the second link.) However, Harrell was never going to be parlayed into Lucas Giolito, no matter what Jeff Luhnow hoped or thought, especially by mid-2013.
In Luhnow's defence, he was probably right to ask the world for him, as trading Harrell would have been difficult decision for the Astros prior to - or even during - his 2013 cratering. At the time, they had no real rotation, and desperately needed innings eaters with upside. In Harrell, they had a cheap and durable groundballer who pumped gas in the low- to mid-90's with pretty decent movement on his pitches, and at that stage, the Astros had few other rotation options. Thanks to Scott Feldman, Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, things look a little different a year-or-so down the road.
Those who are cynical with regards to the Astros' rebuild will probably see the Harrell non-trade and subsequent value-less exit as a sign of how much of a joke the Front Office is. Astros supporters may see Harrell as a lottery ticket that had most of the winning numbers, but fell just short of a jackpot. But really, this is elite sport, and in all elite sport, the margin between success and failure is razor thin. Harrell just happened to straddle that thin line, existing on both sides at various times of his career.
And in the thin line between success and failure in sports, all sorts of awful things can happen. At least Harrell gets to continue his career - albeit not with the Twins team that he may have thought - and he will continue to be handsomely remunerated for it.
When we last checked in with Lucas Harrell, he was doing OK in Reno, having thrown 44 frames with an ERA of 3.89 in an offence-friendly environment. Things went a little south from there, because he finished his season - and possibly his baseball career in North America - at 106 innings at an ERA of 5.15. His WHIP was a hefty 1.800, by virtue of him giving up more than a hit an inning (115) and walking more than he struck out (77 walks versus 66 strikeouts). He was released by the Diamondbacks prior to the end of the season.
Astros fans may think that his career cratered after 2012, but really, it was 2012 that was the outlier. It was the only year where he had a reasonable FIP (3.75) in which he pitched more than 18 innings. The FIP's in the other years where he threw greater than 18 innings were 5.04 (2010, in 24IP) and 5.42 (2013, in 153IP). In smaller samples, he had a great 2011 (2.86 FIP in 18IP) and a disastrous 2014 (5.97 FIP in 12IP). Astros fans remember 2014 altogether too well.
As 2013 slid into 2014, and Harrell's struggles worsened, he developed a less-than-stellar reputation. I don't put too much emphasis on clubhouse stories like those linked, because repeatedly throwing meatballs and getting continuously lit-up in the biggest possible baseball stage would be a severe test of anyone's character. Just ask Mark Appel. However, there was a time when pundits thought that the Astros were going to turn a waiver-wire acquisition into some pretty good players. (As an aside, check out the first comment of the second link.) However, Harrell was never going to be parlayed into Lucas Giolito, no matter what Jeff Luhnow hoped or thought, especially by mid-2013.
In Luhnow's defence, he was probably right to ask the world for him, as trading Harrell would have been difficult decision for the Astros prior to - or even during - his 2013 cratering. At the time, they had no real rotation, and desperately needed innings eaters with upside. In Harrell, they had a cheap and durable groundballer who pumped gas in the low- to mid-90's with pretty decent movement on his pitches, and at that stage, the Astros had few other rotation options. Thanks to Scott Feldman, Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, things look a little different a year-or-so down the road.
Those who are cynical with regards to the Astros' rebuild will probably see the Harrell non-trade and subsequent value-less exit as a sign of how much of a joke the Front Office is. Astros supporters may see Harrell as a lottery ticket that had most of the winning numbers, but fell just short of a jackpot. But really, this is elite sport, and in all elite sport, the margin between success and failure is razor thin. Harrell just happened to straddle that thin line, existing on both sides at various times of his career.
And in the thin line between success and failure in sports, all sorts of awful things can happen. At least Harrell gets to continue his career - albeit not with the Twins team that he may have thought - and he will continue to be handsomely remunerated for it.
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
The Ghosts of Astros Past: the Lucas Harrell Edition
The Astros are in a rebuild. The phase that they are currently in is one where roster spots are at a premium, while they are tasked with sorting through which players are legitimate Major Leaguers, and which players aren't going to make it. What they can't afford to do is let talent seep out of the organisation, which is inevitable when roster crunches occur. So lets have a quick look at some taken which has recently left the Astros organisation. Today is....
Lucas Harrell
As we open a home-and-home series against our "Natural Rivals", the Arizona Diamondbacks, lets look at what Lucas is doing with the D-Bax organisation. Remember that he was traded for a bag of balls back in April, after clearing waivers and being sent to AAA. He had three awful 2014 starts for the Astros in the majors, which resulted in a 9.49 ERA.
Remember the knock on Lucas as he exited the organisation was about how he was not exactly a strikeout pitcher, and when he fell behind in the count, he had to come in to the zone, where he got pounded. Compared to his excellent 2012, his starts in 2013 and 2014 involved lower strikeout rates, higher walk rates, and much higher home run rates. His BABIP's have always been a little high, but that is what happens when you give up so much hard contact.
Once a part of the Diamondbacks, Lucas was sent to pitch for the Reno Aces. They play in a ballpark with a bit of altitude (don't read that as "attitude") at 4,500ft, just 750ft short of the altitude in Denver. Unsurprisingly, it is a big ballpark, measuring circa 340ft down the lines, 401ft in centre, and (at it's deepest) 424ft in right-centre. There is something called a "mini green monster" in left field, which is a low green outfield wall, presumably to .
There is some discussion about whether Reno's ballpark inflates offensive numbers, and by how much. The linked article comments that it "inflates home run numbers less that you would expect". My guess (if I were asked to make one) is that altitude seems to definitely assist with batters making hard contact and sometimes makes the ball fly further. Most good "altitude" players seem to exhibit gaudy batting averages, but only some hit more home runs.
How is this relevant to Lucas? Well, I kind of think he already gives up lots of hard contact, so can a move to a ballpark at altitude worsen this?? Much of his hard contact is in the form of line drives or along the grounds, although when flyballs are hit, they did seem to leave the yard a surprising amount of time. I guess, if I were to make an educated guess, Lucas would continue to give up hard contact and high BABIP's, but perhaps not really more home runs. A drop in level to AAA would serve to worsen this.
So lets look at what he has actually done. He has thrown 44 innings, in eight appearances, all starts. He is 3-0, and has a 3.89 ERA. Who knows how good that is in AAA, at altitude, but it seems reasonable to look deeper into the numbers (and remember, we are only talking about 44 innings in AAA and 12.1 innings in the Majors in 2014, so standard SSS warning).
His strikeout rate has actually worsened from his short 2014 stint in Houston (5.32 versus 6.57 K/9) as is, more importantly, sits at a whole K/9 less than his stellar 2012 campaign. That could be the effect of altitude, as fewer the ball moves and sinks less when the air is thin. His walk rate has improved significantly (5.52 versus 6.57 BB/9 in 2014 Houston), but, again, is significantly worse than his 2012 campaign (3.62 BB/9). What has changed is the home run rate (0.61 HR/9 in Reno, 1.46 HR/9 in 2014 Houston, 0.60 HR/9 in 2012 Houston).
Noteably, his BABIP (much like his home run rate) was unsustainably elevated in Houston (.370) in 2014, but has improved in Reno (.314), but is still a little high. In 2012, it was .289.
His FIP is essentially unchanged when comparing the 2014 scores (5.92 in Houston, 5.34 in Reno), and much worse than in 2012 (3.76).
So, what can we learn from this?? Nothing, really, except to say that Lucas has not suddenly regained 2012 form. He has improved over his 2014 Houston starts, but it could hardly get worse. He remains not as good as he was in 2012 - he is still striking fewer people out, walking more, and probably giving up a lot of hard contact. He is playing a whole level lower that what he was in 2012, but the altitude also throws a bit of a spanner in the works.
Have the Astros made a mistake in cutting him?? Not at this juncture.
Lucas Harrell
As we open a home-and-home series against our "Natural Rivals", the Arizona Diamondbacks, lets look at what Lucas is doing with the D-Bax organisation. Remember that he was traded for a bag of balls back in April, after clearing waivers and being sent to AAA. He had three awful 2014 starts for the Astros in the majors, which resulted in a 9.49 ERA.
Remember the knock on Lucas as he exited the organisation was about how he was not exactly a strikeout pitcher, and when he fell behind in the count, he had to come in to the zone, where he got pounded. Compared to his excellent 2012, his starts in 2013 and 2014 involved lower strikeout rates, higher walk rates, and much higher home run rates. His BABIP's have always been a little high, but that is what happens when you give up so much hard contact.
Once a part of the Diamondbacks, Lucas was sent to pitch for the Reno Aces. They play in a ballpark with a bit of altitude (don't read that as "attitude") at 4,500ft, just 750ft short of the altitude in Denver. Unsurprisingly, it is a big ballpark, measuring circa 340ft down the lines, 401ft in centre, and (at it's deepest) 424ft in right-centre. There is something called a "mini green monster" in left field, which is a low green outfield wall, presumably to .
There is some discussion about whether Reno's ballpark inflates offensive numbers, and by how much. The linked article comments that it "inflates home run numbers less that you would expect". My guess (if I were asked to make one) is that altitude seems to definitely assist with batters making hard contact and sometimes makes the ball fly further. Most good "altitude" players seem to exhibit gaudy batting averages, but only some hit more home runs.
How is this relevant to Lucas? Well, I kind of think he already gives up lots of hard contact, so can a move to a ballpark at altitude worsen this?? Much of his hard contact is in the form of line drives or along the grounds, although when flyballs are hit, they did seem to leave the yard a surprising amount of time. I guess, if I were to make an educated guess, Lucas would continue to give up hard contact and high BABIP's, but perhaps not really more home runs. A drop in level to AAA would serve to worsen this.
So lets look at what he has actually done. He has thrown 44 innings, in eight appearances, all starts. He is 3-0, and has a 3.89 ERA. Who knows how good that is in AAA, at altitude, but it seems reasonable to look deeper into the numbers (and remember, we are only talking about 44 innings in AAA and 12.1 innings in the Majors in 2014, so standard SSS warning).
His strikeout rate has actually worsened from his short 2014 stint in Houston (5.32 versus 6.57 K/9) as is, more importantly, sits at a whole K/9 less than his stellar 2012 campaign. That could be the effect of altitude, as fewer the ball moves and sinks less when the air is thin. His walk rate has improved significantly (5.52 versus 6.57 BB/9 in 2014 Houston), but, again, is significantly worse than his 2012 campaign (3.62 BB/9). What has changed is the home run rate (0.61 HR/9 in Reno, 1.46 HR/9 in 2014 Houston, 0.60 HR/9 in 2012 Houston).
Noteably, his BABIP (much like his home run rate) was unsustainably elevated in Houston (.370) in 2014, but has improved in Reno (.314), but is still a little high. In 2012, it was .289.
His FIP is essentially unchanged when comparing the 2014 scores (5.92 in Houston, 5.34 in Reno), and much worse than in 2012 (3.76).
So, what can we learn from this?? Nothing, really, except to say that Lucas has not suddenly regained 2012 form. He has improved over his 2014 Houston starts, but it could hardly get worse. He remains not as good as he was in 2012 - he is still striking fewer people out, walking more, and probably giving up a lot of hard contact. He is playing a whole level lower that what he was in 2012, but the altitude also throws a bit of a spanner in the works.
Have the Astros made a mistake in cutting him?? Not at this juncture.
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Tuesday Morning Hot Links
This whole thing is on a need-to-know basis. And this is what you need to know:
*Lucas Harrell asked for a trade but did not demand one, according to Jeff Luhnow, who also said that it would have been tough for Harrell to make his way back to Houston.
*Brady Rodgers: The next Bud Norris? (Link also has good info on Tommy Shirley, Luis Cruz, and Preston Tucker.)
*Sigh. Judge Isgur will rule within two weeks where Crane's fraud lawsuit will be pursued.
*Getting booed in Houston really hurt Carlos Beltran's feelings.
*Nice profile on Conor and Cavan Biggio from Notre Dame's student newspaper
Farewell, Lucas Harrell, we hardly knew ye...
(The 2012 version, that is...)
The Astros traded Lucas Harrell to the Diamondbacks for a PTBNL or cash considerations. My guess is that the Astros are tossing up between Didi Gregorious or Chris Owings. Undoubtedly, whomever they get would then be flipped to the Angels for Mike Trout. Or not.
Lucas Harrell demonstrated himself to have some serious talent with his mid-90's power sinker, and juicy ground ball rates. His best season was 2012, when he posted a 3.76 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.60 HR/9 and 57.2% GB rate. All that was worth a Fangraphs WAR of 2.6, with an FIP of 3.75, indicating that the ERA was no fluke. That year, his record was 11-11 in 32 starts, which was an excellent record in a terrible Astros team. He was probably the bright spot.
Prior to that, 2010 represented Harrell's first ML action with the White Sox, where he posted a 4.88 ERA / 5.04 FIP in 24 innings. He appeared in 8 games, and started 3, earning one win. His K/9 was 5.63, BB/9 of 6.38 and HR/9 or 0.75.
He appeared in a total of 9 games in 2011, pitching 18 innings with an ERA or 4.50 and FIP of 2.86. The second of those teams was the Astros, after he was claimed on waivers from the White Sox. His K/9 in a small sample was 7.50, and BB/9 was 4.00.
Since his excellent 2012 campaign, Harrell has struggled. 2013 was a disaster, with a 6 win and league-leading 17 loss record, and an ERA of 5.86. That wasn't a fluke, as he regressed in all areas from 2012, with a 5.21 K/9, 5.15 BB/9 and 1.17 HR/9. BABIP in 2013 was only 17 points higher than 2012 (.289 versus .306). Not good. Lots of hard-hit balls.
And 2014 has been worse, with 12 innings of 9.49 ERA ball, with an equal K/9 and BB/9 rate (6.57) and a worsening HR rate (1.46, albeit in a very small sample).
This pretty much points to the problem with Lucas. When his walk rate is circa-half of his strikeout rate, he can manage. But when his walk rate increases, that is a pretty good sign that his command inside the zone also worsens, as his HR/9 rate climbs above 1. Steve Sparks frequently talked about the problems that Lucas has when he is not pitching ahead in the count, and when he has to come into the zone with a fastball. He clearly has talent, but he has also managed to have more than his share of battles with management, especially when dropped from the rotation in 2013.
He cleared waivers after being DFA'd after three starts for the 2014 Astros. He does not occupy a 40-man roster spot.
Despite his 2012 WAR of 2.6, his career WAR sits at 1.9 He has been worth -1.0 WAR since 2012.
Lucas, this is farewell, rather than goodbye, especially given the fact that the Diamondbacks and Rockies have been our Official Sworn Enemies since 2013. We may see you back at MMP at some stage soon.
The Astros traded Lucas Harrell to the Diamondbacks for a PTBNL or cash considerations. My guess is that the Astros are tossing up between Didi Gregorious or Chris Owings. Undoubtedly, whomever they get would then be flipped to the Angels for Mike Trout. Or not.
Lucas Harrell demonstrated himself to have some serious talent with his mid-90's power sinker, and juicy ground ball rates. His best season was 2012, when he posted a 3.76 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.60 HR/9 and 57.2% GB rate. All that was worth a Fangraphs WAR of 2.6, with an FIP of 3.75, indicating that the ERA was no fluke. That year, his record was 11-11 in 32 starts, which was an excellent record in a terrible Astros team. He was probably the bright spot.
Prior to that, 2010 represented Harrell's first ML action with the White Sox, where he posted a 4.88 ERA / 5.04 FIP in 24 innings. He appeared in 8 games, and started 3, earning one win. His K/9 was 5.63, BB/9 of 6.38 and HR/9 or 0.75.
He appeared in a total of 9 games in 2011, pitching 18 innings with an ERA or 4.50 and FIP of 2.86. The second of those teams was the Astros, after he was claimed on waivers from the White Sox. His K/9 in a small sample was 7.50, and BB/9 was 4.00.
Since his excellent 2012 campaign, Harrell has struggled. 2013 was a disaster, with a 6 win and league-leading 17 loss record, and an ERA of 5.86. That wasn't a fluke, as he regressed in all areas from 2012, with a 5.21 K/9, 5.15 BB/9 and 1.17 HR/9. BABIP in 2013 was only 17 points higher than 2012 (.289 versus .306). Not good. Lots of hard-hit balls.
And 2014 has been worse, with 12 innings of 9.49 ERA ball, with an equal K/9 and BB/9 rate (6.57) and a worsening HR rate (1.46, albeit in a very small sample).
This pretty much points to the problem with Lucas. When his walk rate is circa-half of his strikeout rate, he can manage. But when his walk rate increases, that is a pretty good sign that his command inside the zone also worsens, as his HR/9 rate climbs above 1. Steve Sparks frequently talked about the problems that Lucas has when he is not pitching ahead in the count, and when he has to come into the zone with a fastball. He clearly has talent, but he has also managed to have more than his share of battles with management, especially when dropped from the rotation in 2013.
He cleared waivers after being DFA'd after three starts for the 2014 Astros. He does not occupy a 40-man roster spot.
Despite his 2012 WAR of 2.6, his career WAR sits at 1.9 He has been worth -1.0 WAR since 2012.
Lucas, this is farewell, rather than goodbye, especially given the fact that the Diamondbacks and Rockies have been our Official Sworn Enemies since 2013. We may see you back at MMP at some stage soon.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Lucas Harrell said all three of his starts were different
With all due respect to Lucas Harrell, he's kind of wrong. He told Mark Berman this morning that, "All three of my starts were way different. The ball caught here, the
ball caught there. Bounce this way, bounce that way....all three of my
starts were way different. Just one of those things, bad luck."
First, let's start with the inefficency. In his season debut, an 11-1 loss to the Angels, 38 of his 76 pitches were for strikes and there were only three swings and misses. That's a 50% strike-to-pitch ratio. In his second start, a 7-3 loss at Toronto, Harrell threw 107 pitches and got 59 strikes...six of them swinging. That's a 55.1% strike-to-pitch ratio. And in his third start, last night's 4-2 loss to the Royals, 56 of his 101 pitches were for strikes with seven swinging strikes - a 55.4% strike-to-pitch ratio.
In all, Harrell threw 284 pitches, and 153 of them for strikes for a 53.9% Strike rate. So far this season, starters across the other 29 MLB teams have thrown 37646 pitches with 23957 of those pitches for strikes - or a 63.6% Strike rate. In those three starts, 32% of his pitches were in the strike zone. That's not efficient.
Even less efficient is his pitch per out ratio. Harrell needed 284 pitches to record 37 outs, or 7.68 pitches per out, and he faced 66 batters - 4.3 pitches per batter. If we use the total pitch data from the previous paragraph, the other 29 teams' starters needed 37646 pitches in 2313.1IP - or 6940 outs, which works out to be 5.42 pitches per out. Also, the other 29 teams' starters have faced 9821 batters, working out to 3.83 pitches per batter. So Harrell was throwing an extra pitch to every second batter, and needed an extra 2.26 pitches per out. And we're not just talking about every other team's ace.
Now was Lucas Harrell unlucky, as he mentioned? The Astros are shifting far more than any other team in baseball and the problems he's had with the shift are well-documented. And, despite the hell that (Not Hank) Aaron has caught for mentioning BABIP, it's worth noting that Harrell's BABIP is .370, where the rest of MLB's starters are averaging a .295 BABIP. It's also worth mentioning that Harrell generated a groundball rate right at 50%. And 18.2% of the flyballs he's giving up are leaving the yard. Considering that the Astros - as a team, including Harrell - have an 8.2% HR/FB rate, he's the outlier.
In short Harrell threw too many pitches and the pitches that did cross the plate were getting tattooed. Opposing hitters had a 100% contact rate on pitches thrown inside the strike zone. If they hit a fly ball, there was a higher-than-average chance that it would leave the yard.
Nope, Lucas Harrell's starts were pretty much the same.
First, let's start with the inefficency. In his season debut, an 11-1 loss to the Angels, 38 of his 76 pitches were for strikes and there were only three swings and misses. That's a 50% strike-to-pitch ratio. In his second start, a 7-3 loss at Toronto, Harrell threw 107 pitches and got 59 strikes...six of them swinging. That's a 55.1% strike-to-pitch ratio. And in his third start, last night's 4-2 loss to the Royals, 56 of his 101 pitches were for strikes with seven swinging strikes - a 55.4% strike-to-pitch ratio.
In all, Harrell threw 284 pitches, and 153 of them for strikes for a 53.9% Strike rate. So far this season, starters across the other 29 MLB teams have thrown 37646 pitches with 23957 of those pitches for strikes - or a 63.6% Strike rate. In those three starts, 32% of his pitches were in the strike zone. That's not efficient.
Even less efficient is his pitch per out ratio. Harrell needed 284 pitches to record 37 outs, or 7.68 pitches per out, and he faced 66 batters - 4.3 pitches per batter. If we use the total pitch data from the previous paragraph, the other 29 teams' starters needed 37646 pitches in 2313.1IP - or 6940 outs, which works out to be 5.42 pitches per out. Also, the other 29 teams' starters have faced 9821 batters, working out to 3.83 pitches per batter. So Harrell was throwing an extra pitch to every second batter, and needed an extra 2.26 pitches per out. And we're not just talking about every other team's ace.
Now was Lucas Harrell unlucky, as he mentioned? The Astros are shifting far more than any other team in baseball and the problems he's had with the shift are well-documented. And, despite the hell that (Not Hank) Aaron has caught for mentioning BABIP, it's worth noting that Harrell's BABIP is .370, where the rest of MLB's starters are averaging a .295 BABIP. It's also worth mentioning that Harrell generated a groundball rate right at 50%. And 18.2% of the flyballs he's giving up are leaving the yard. Considering that the Astros - as a team, including Harrell - have an 8.2% HR/FB rate, he's the outlier.
In short Harrell threw too many pitches and the pitches that did cross the plate were getting tattooed. Opposing hitters had a 100% contact rate on pitches thrown inside the strike zone. If they hit a fly ball, there was a higher-than-average chance that it would leave the yard.
Nope, Lucas Harrell's starts were pretty much the same.
Happy George Springer Day!
A running post of George Springeralia:
3:08pm: George Springer will hit 2nd tonight.
12:32pm: Luhnow wants to see Singleton establish a track record of success at OKC before bringing him up. Chris Carter breathes a sigh of relief.
12:31pm: Morgan Ensberg would like everyone to chill out about Springer.
11:45am: The rest of you Astros are on notice. "Guys that don't produce aren't going to stick around." - Jeff Luhnow
11:40am: Baseball America on what to expect from Springer.
11:39am: Jerome Williams or Brad Peacock will likely take Harrell's rotation spot.
10:44am: "We've got a lot of good guys in the system, hopefully this is the first of many really good ones to come." - Jim Crane
10:39am: Lucas Harrell told Mark Berman, "All three of my starts were way different. The ball caught here, the ball caught there. Bounce this way, bounce that way....all three of my starts were way different. Just one of those things, bad luck."
10:18am: Scott Feldman has been reinstated from the Bereavement List, so there's your corresponding Harrell move.
10:11am: Crawfish Boxes has What To Expect from Springer
10:10am: The Astros still have one 40-Man roster spot.
10:08am: Mike Acosta posted this beautiful picture:
9:15am: "Excited for my boy (George Springer) debut! Couldn't have happened to a better teammate! #bestplayeriveeverplayedwith" - OKC's Erik Castro
9:11am: "Good seats available for tonight in case you aren't doing anything." - Jeff Luhnow
9:06am: "Good job by astros to call up future star George Springer without a longterm deal in place. And there is no long deal yet." - Jon Heyman.
8:56am: Check out a special edition of the Astros County Morning Drive (thanks to Tim & the Crawfish Boxes for hooking me up)
8:52am: Exclusive photo of George Springer getting off the plane:
8:28am: "Good to see astros calling up multialented OF george springer. some scouts say ss carlos correa, 19, is ready for bigs too." - Jon Heyman
8:24am: Brian McTaggart has a list of notable Astros debuts.
8:16am: Check out David Coleman's thoughts on the last 12 hours, as well.
8:15am: Jayne at What The Heck, Bobby has some good thoughts about what this means.
7:52am: Springer will wear #4 - formerly worn by Craig Biggio.
7:26am: "Happy first day of Springer!" - Keith Law
3:08pm: George Springer will hit 2nd tonight.
12:32pm: Luhnow wants to see Singleton establish a track record of success at OKC before bringing him up. Chris Carter breathes a sigh of relief.
12:31pm: Morgan Ensberg would like everyone to chill out about Springer.
11:45am: The rest of you Astros are on notice. "Guys that don't produce aren't going to stick around." - Jeff Luhnow
11:40am: Baseball America on what to expect from Springer.
11:39am: Jerome Williams or Brad Peacock will likely take Harrell's rotation spot.
10:44am: "We've got a lot of good guys in the system, hopefully this is the first of many really good ones to come." - Jim Crane
10:39am: Lucas Harrell told Mark Berman, "All three of my starts were way different. The ball caught here, the ball caught there. Bounce this way, bounce that way....all three of my starts were way different. Just one of those things, bad luck."
10:18am: Scott Feldman has been reinstated from the Bereavement List, so there's your corresponding Harrell move.
10:11am: Crawfish Boxes has What To Expect from Springer
10:10am: The Astros still have one 40-Man roster spot.
10:08am: Mike Acosta posted this beautiful picture:
9:15am: "Excited for my boy (George Springer) debut! Couldn't have happened to a better teammate! #bestplayeriveeverplayedwith" - OKC's Erik Castro
9:11am: "Good seats available for tonight in case you aren't doing anything." - Jeff Luhnow
9:06am: "Good job by astros to call up future star George Springer without a longterm deal in place. And there is no long deal yet." - Jon Heyman.
8:56am: Check out a special edition of the Astros County Morning Drive (thanks to Tim & the Crawfish Boxes for hooking me up)
8:52am: Exclusive photo of George Springer getting off the plane:
8:28am: "Good to see astros calling up multialented OF george springer. some scouts say ss carlos correa, 19, is ready for bigs too." - Jon Heyman
8:24am: Brian McTaggart has a list of notable Astros debuts.
8:16am: Check out David Coleman's thoughts on the last 12 hours, as well.
8:15am: Jayne at What The Heck, Bobby has some good thoughts about what this means.
7:52am: Springer will wear #4 - formerly worn by Craig Biggio.
7:26am: "Happy first day of Springer!" - Keith Law
Springer up, Harrell/Grossman down
BRING ME YOUR FINEST PROCESSED MEATS AND CANNED ALCOHOLS.
Lucas Harrell - fresh off a 5IP, 5H/4ER, 4K:3BB loss last night to drop his ERA to 9.49 - has been designated for assignment and Robbie Grossman - who was 0x4 with three strikeouts, and a misplayed Harrell ball that allowed a run to score - was optioned to Oklahoma City last night.
Harrell - who actually did strike out the side in the 2nd, and was hurt by a couple of defensive mistakes:
Things happen. No matter what happens you got to make pitches. Sometimes bad luck is really not bad luck. It's making bad pitches.
The corresponding move? George Herman Babe Springer has been called up. Springer was hitting .353/.459/.647 after scoring four runs and hitting a grand slam in last night's win at Colorado Springs. In 75 Triple-A games (327 PAs) dating back to last season, Springer hit .319/.431/.630 with 21 homers, 26 stolen bases, 80K:50BB.
Springer's reaction:
It's just an indescribable feeling. I'm speechless right now.
Same, George Springer. Same.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Astros rotation set
The Astros have set their rotation to start the season, and it is as follows:
SP1:Corey Scott Feldman
SP2: Jarred Cosart
SP3: Brett Oberholtzer
SP4: Lucas Harrell
SP5: Dallas Keuchel
I understand Keuchel's inclusion, as he's a lefty, but I'm trying pretty hard not to get riled up about Lucas Harrell's inclusion over Brad Peacock.
Harrell posted a 7.50 ERA, allowing 24 hits and striking out just three batters this Spring, but - in an effort to be positive - did have his numbers hijacked by a mid-March start against the Tigers in which he allowed 12H/9ER. You can read Jose Ortiz's profile on Lucas Harrell from March 14 (the day before the Tigers start) here, in which we find that nobody really liked Lucas Harrell, and Lucas Harrell didn't really like anybody else on the 2013 team.
Bo Porter:
You look at Dallas (Keuchel), we just felt like the time he spent in the rotation was much better than the time he spent in the bullpen. And I felt like Peacock has that power stuff that can actually play as a long reliever. Or in a situation where the starter gives us extended innings, he's another option in short relief, as well.
Ultimately, it's not like this doesn't have room to change. The Astros used 10 starting pitchers last season (Bedard, Lyles, Keuchel, Harrell, Norris, Peacock, Oberholtzer, Cosart, Humber, Clemens), so this is how it shook out in Spring Training.
SP1:
SP2: Jarred Cosart
SP3: Brett Oberholtzer
SP4: Lucas Harrell
SP5: Dallas Keuchel
I understand Keuchel's inclusion, as he's a lefty, but I'm trying pretty hard not to get riled up about Lucas Harrell's inclusion over Brad Peacock.
Harrell posted a 7.50 ERA, allowing 24 hits and striking out just three batters this Spring, but - in an effort to be positive - did have his numbers hijacked by a mid-March start against the Tigers in which he allowed 12H/9ER. You can read Jose Ortiz's profile on Lucas Harrell from March 14 (the day before the Tigers start) here, in which we find that nobody really liked Lucas Harrell, and Lucas Harrell didn't really like anybody else on the 2013 team.
Bo Porter:
You look at Dallas (Keuchel), we just felt like the time he spent in the rotation was much better than the time he spent in the bullpen. And I felt like Peacock has that power stuff that can actually play as a long reliever. Or in a situation where the starter gives us extended innings, he's another option in short relief, as well.
Ultimately, it's not like this doesn't have room to change. The Astros used 10 starting pitchers last season (Bedard, Lyles, Keuchel, Harrell, Norris, Peacock, Oberholtzer, Cosart, Humber, Clemens), so this is how it shook out in Spring Training.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
What We Missed
Greetings, citizens! As you may have noticed, it's been a busy few days at Astros County, and we're just now catching up. Here's what we found interesting...
*Asher Wojciechowski's lat strain apparently flared up last week when he tried to play catch, so the Astros are (predictably) going to move slowly with him. Also, Lucas Harrell will start the Grapefruit League's opening game on Friday, followed by Scott Feldman, and then Jarred Cosart.
*Bo Porter, for one, is "encouraged" by Lucas Harrell's off-season adjustments and improvements.
*J.D. Martinez, who is not on the 40-man roster, "blew up" his swing this winter:
I changed everything. Everything. From my hands to my feet, my leg kick, my stride, my load - just everything.
So watch out for J.D. Martinez's new load this spring!
*Jesse Crain's calf is feeling better. Had this occurred when Crain was, you know, able to throw a baseball and stuff, it would have set his Spring Training back. As it is, he's still on pace for an April season debut.
*The Astros bought two season tickets to NC State's baseball program, to make it cheaper/easier to watch Carlos Rodon.
*Courtesy of the Crawfish Boxes, we find out that the Astros have hired the excellent Amanda Rykoff as their Social Media Manager. Click the link to read how excited Important People are about the new hire, and congratulations to the Astros and Rykoff.
*The Blue Jays are out of the Palm Beach Gardens Spring Training Sweepstakes. Instead, the Astros and Nationals are now looking at sharing a complex in Lake Worth (also Palm Beach County), and Astros' general counsel Giles Kibbe says that, if the county is on board, then the Astros are "all in favor."
*Asher Wojciechowski's lat strain apparently flared up last week when he tried to play catch, so the Astros are (predictably) going to move slowly with him. Also, Lucas Harrell will start the Grapefruit League's opening game on Friday, followed by Scott Feldman, and then Jarred Cosart.
*Bo Porter, for one, is "encouraged" by Lucas Harrell's off-season adjustments and improvements.
*J.D. Martinez, who is not on the 40-man roster, "blew up" his swing this winter:
I changed everything. Everything. From my hands to my feet, my leg kick, my stride, my load - just everything.
So watch out for J.D. Martinez's new load this spring!
*Jesse Crain's calf is feeling better. Had this occurred when Crain was, you know, able to throw a baseball and stuff, it would have set his Spring Training back. As it is, he's still on pace for an April season debut.
*The Astros bought two season tickets to NC State's baseball program, to make it cheaper/easier to watch Carlos Rodon.
*Courtesy of the Crawfish Boxes, we find out that the Astros have hired the excellent Amanda Rykoff as their Social Media Manager. Click the link to read how excited Important People are about the new hire, and congratulations to the Astros and Rykoff.
*The Blue Jays are out of the Palm Beach Gardens Spring Training Sweepstakes. Instead, the Astros and Nationals are now looking at sharing a complex in Lake Worth (also Palm Beach County), and Astros' general counsel Giles Kibbe says that, if the county is on board, then the Astros are "all in favor."
Friday, November 29, 2013
Exit Music (For A Player): Lucas Harrell
We're
taking a look at the Astros who are still on the 40-Man Roster as part
of our off-season Exit Music (For A Player) recap of 2013. Read the
archive here. Today we take on Lucas Harrell.
Acquired: Selected off waivers on July 8, 2011 from the Chicago White Sox.
Summary:
36 appearances / 22 starts - 153.2IP
ERA: 5.86; FIP: 5.42; xFIP: 4.97
1.71 WHIP. 69 ERA+
Baseball-Reference WAR: -1.6; FanGraphs WAR: -0.9
K/9: 5.21; BB/9: 5.2
2013 Salary: $500,700
Oh I've been waiting for this. And Black Friday is as good a time as any to get to the season recap of Lucas Harrell. So what the heck happened? Why was he so bad? Before we answer those two questions, we need to see just how bad Lucas Harrell was in 2013 (all statistics below are filtered for pitchers who threw at least 150IP in a season).
Harrell walked 88 batters in 153.2IP - 5.15 batters per nine innings - both of which led all of Major League Baseball. Among 4,664 pitchers who threw at least 150IP in a season since 1962, Harrell's 5.15 BB/9 rate is the 57th-worst. It's the 2nd-worst in Astros' franchise history, rating behind J.R. Richard in 1975, when he walked 6.12 BB/9 (but had an FIP almost two full points lower than Harrell).
Only two pitchers in Astros' history posted a WAR below 0.0: Lucas Harrell and Brandon Backe, who in 2009 matched Harrell's -0.9 (both numbers courtesy of FanGraphs, B-R was not as kind as FanGraphs, giving Harrell a -1.6). Harrell had the highest WHIP in Astros' history over a season (again, min. 150IP), at 1.70.
He had the 5th-highest HR/FB rate in MLB for 2013, at 14.4% - still 3.0% lower than Dallas Keuchel. Harrell's 5.42 FIP is the 4th-worst in Astros History, behind Jose Lima (2000), Brandon Backe (2008), and Woody Williams (2007).
Things started out well enough for Harrell in 2013. He took the loss in G2, throwing 6IP, 6H/1ER, 4K:2BB while Yu Darvish retired 26 straight Astros to begin the game. The next outing? 4.1IP, 7H/8ER, 2K:5BB, 3HR. But then he had four straight starts of at least 5.2IP and a maximum of 2ER. Then another 8ER outing against Detroit. And it spiraled from there. He got bumped from the rotation, got into a fight with Jordan Lyles, came back to the rotation, went back to the bullpen. It was bad.
High-Water Mark:
Going with June 30 vs. LAA. Threw 7IP, allowing 6H/1ER, matching a season-high with 7K and walking just two batters.
What Went Well:
*Harrell's best calendar month was easily June, when he allowed 32H/13ER, 29K:10BB in 36.1IP. Minus a disaster 7H/7ER, 5K:4BB outing in 3.1IP vs. St. Louis, he had four quality starts, and even with that madness against the Cardinals averaged a 55 Game Score.
*His cutter was less bad in 2013 than it was in 2012. In 2012, FanGraphs rated his cutter a -3.4, which "improved" to a -0.7.
*In the rare instance that he was ahead in the count, opposing hitters slashed .195/.204/.305 against Harrell. But in 329 Plate Appearances, Harrell got to an 0-2 count...28 times.
What Didn't:
*It all starts with his fastball. In 2012, FanGraphs posted his wFB (Fastball Runs Above Average) at 13.5. In 2013 his fastball was rated at -24. Out of 96 pitchers who threw at least 150IP in 2013, that's the lowest wFB rating. 2nd-worst was Jason Vargas, whose changeup was at least above average. Sabathia was 3rd, who at least had an above average slider. Harrell didn't have a single pitch rated above 0.0.
*The lack of a decent pitch in 2013 meant that he tried to nibble, and as a result, only 38% of his pitches were actually in the strike zone (down from 44.6% in 2012). Overall, there wasn't much of a reason for batters to be aggressive. They swung at pitches outside the strike zone at a 28.1% clip (down from 29.6%), they swung less overall (39.3% down from 42.8%), and made more contact (86.7% in 2013, up from 85.3% in 2012).
*And when hitters made contact, they hit it in the air. His Groundball/Flyball ratio dropped from 2.54 in 2012 to 1.88 in 2013, which is the result of an almost-6% decline in his GB% and a 5% increase in his FB%. And when opponents hit a flyball, it left the yard 14.3% of the time - up from 9.7% in 2012.
Did You Know:
*Harrell was 10-1 with a 1.09 ERA for Ozark (MO) High School when they won their first state championship in 2004. In the state final, Harrell went 3x3 with a walk and three runs scored as the starting shortstop.
*On June 27, 2012 Harrell became the first Astros rookie pitcher to throw a shutout since Taylor Buchholz did it on May 21, 2006 against Texas.
2014 Contract: Pre-Arbitration. Will be arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2015.
2014 Outlook: Jeebus. It's hard to say. The Astros have to decide if 2013 was an anomaly or the sudden decline of a pitcher who maybe just had a career year in 2012. Without trying to be mean, I feel that if Harrell starts the season in the rotation, then something this offseason went very badly wrong.
Acquired: Selected off waivers on July 8, 2011 from the Chicago White Sox.
Summary:
36 appearances / 22 starts - 153.2IP
ERA: 5.86; FIP: 5.42; xFIP: 4.97
1.71 WHIP. 69 ERA+
Baseball-Reference WAR: -1.6; FanGraphs WAR: -0.9
K/9: 5.21; BB/9: 5.2
2013 Salary: $500,700
Oh I've been waiting for this. And Black Friday is as good a time as any to get to the season recap of Lucas Harrell. So what the heck happened? Why was he so bad? Before we answer those two questions, we need to see just how bad Lucas Harrell was in 2013 (all statistics below are filtered for pitchers who threw at least 150IP in a season).
Harrell walked 88 batters in 153.2IP - 5.15 batters per nine innings - both of which led all of Major League Baseball. Among 4,664 pitchers who threw at least 150IP in a season since 1962, Harrell's 5.15 BB/9 rate is the 57th-worst. It's the 2nd-worst in Astros' franchise history, rating behind J.R. Richard in 1975, when he walked 6.12 BB/9 (but had an FIP almost two full points lower than Harrell).
Only two pitchers in Astros' history posted a WAR below 0.0: Lucas Harrell and Brandon Backe, who in 2009 matched Harrell's -0.9 (both numbers courtesy of FanGraphs, B-R was not as kind as FanGraphs, giving Harrell a -1.6). Harrell had the highest WHIP in Astros' history over a season (again, min. 150IP), at 1.70.
He had the 5th-highest HR/FB rate in MLB for 2013, at 14.4% - still 3.0% lower than Dallas Keuchel. Harrell's 5.42 FIP is the 4th-worst in Astros History, behind Jose Lima (2000), Brandon Backe (2008), and Woody Williams (2007).
Things started out well enough for Harrell in 2013. He took the loss in G2, throwing 6IP, 6H/1ER, 4K:2BB while Yu Darvish retired 26 straight Astros to begin the game. The next outing? 4.1IP, 7H/8ER, 2K:5BB, 3HR. But then he had four straight starts of at least 5.2IP and a maximum of 2ER. Then another 8ER outing against Detroit. And it spiraled from there. He got bumped from the rotation, got into a fight with Jordan Lyles, came back to the rotation, went back to the bullpen. It was bad.
High-Water Mark:
Going with June 30 vs. LAA. Threw 7IP, allowing 6H/1ER, matching a season-high with 7K and walking just two batters.
What Went Well:
*Harrell's best calendar month was easily June, when he allowed 32H/13ER, 29K:10BB in 36.1IP. Minus a disaster 7H/7ER, 5K:4BB outing in 3.1IP vs. St. Louis, he had four quality starts, and even with that madness against the Cardinals averaged a 55 Game Score.
*His cutter was less bad in 2013 than it was in 2012. In 2012, FanGraphs rated his cutter a -3.4, which "improved" to a -0.7.
*In the rare instance that he was ahead in the count, opposing hitters slashed .195/.204/.305 against Harrell. But in 329 Plate Appearances, Harrell got to an 0-2 count...28 times.
What Didn't:
*It all starts with his fastball. In 2012, FanGraphs posted his wFB (Fastball Runs Above Average) at 13.5. In 2013 his fastball was rated at -24. Out of 96 pitchers who threw at least 150IP in 2013, that's the lowest wFB rating. 2nd-worst was Jason Vargas, whose changeup was at least above average. Sabathia was 3rd, who at least had an above average slider. Harrell didn't have a single pitch rated above 0.0.
*The lack of a decent pitch in 2013 meant that he tried to nibble, and as a result, only 38% of his pitches were actually in the strike zone (down from 44.6% in 2012). Overall, there wasn't much of a reason for batters to be aggressive. They swung at pitches outside the strike zone at a 28.1% clip (down from 29.6%), they swung less overall (39.3% down from 42.8%), and made more contact (86.7% in 2013, up from 85.3% in 2012).
*And when hitters made contact, they hit it in the air. His Groundball/Flyball ratio dropped from 2.54 in 2012 to 1.88 in 2013, which is the result of an almost-6% decline in his GB% and a 5% increase in his FB%. And when opponents hit a flyball, it left the yard 14.3% of the time - up from 9.7% in 2012.
Did You Know:
*Harrell was 10-1 with a 1.09 ERA for Ozark (MO) High School when they won their first state championship in 2004. In the state final, Harrell went 3x3 with a walk and three runs scored as the starting shortstop.
*On June 27, 2012 Harrell became the first Astros rookie pitcher to throw a shutout since Taylor Buchholz did it on May 21, 2006 against Texas.
2014 Contract: Pre-Arbitration. Will be arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2015.
2014 Outlook: Jeebus. It's hard to say. The Astros have to decide if 2013 was an anomaly or the sudden decline of a pitcher who maybe just had a career year in 2012. Without trying to be mean, I feel that if Harrell starts the season in the rotation, then something this offseason went very badly wrong.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Bedard "unlikely to return"
In Brian McTaggart's latest "Astros ready to spend some money" article, we find that the Astros are likely going to pursue a veteran starter because "Erik Bedard is unlikely to return."
That's okay with me.
Elsewhere, among possible non-tender candidates, McTaggart has listed J.D. Martinez, Brett Wallace, and our old pal Lucas Harrell.
This will be an interesting off-season, because the players they sign will give a little insight into how the front office views the development of the prospects coming up. Or at least it will, in theory.
Welp, to wrap up what has turned into a terrible trainwreck of a post, I'm glad baseball season is over.
That's okay with me.
Elsewhere, among possible non-tender candidates, McTaggart has listed J.D. Martinez, Brett Wallace, and our old pal Lucas Harrell.
This will be an interesting off-season, because the players they sign will give a little insight into how the front office views the development of the prospects coming up. Or at least it will, in theory.
Welp, to wrap up what has turned into a terrible trainwreck of a post, I'm glad baseball season is over.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Lucas Harrell vs. Brandon Backe
Lucas Harrell has racked up 16 losses this season, already tied for 7th-most in franchise history (one behind Ken Johnson (1963), Bob Knepper (1987) and Denny Lemaster (1969), two behind Bob Bruce (1965) and Doug Drabek (1993), and four behind all-time Astros single-season loss leader Turk Farrell (1962).
Yesterday, I was going through to see if Harrell's 2013 season is the worst pitching season in Astros history. That was some depressing research. I'll finish it one day, when it's 16 degrees on a January night and everyone else is asleep.Then I'll feel the warm comfort of the bourbon meet the cold comfort of my knife. But I did run across an interesting comparison: Brandon Backe.
HA! you scoff. Backe was The King! you say. And, for a few years, you were right. I'll always have a soft spot in the back of my head for Brandon Backe. But 2008 Brandon Backe was rough...and comparable to Harrell's 2013.
Let's just look at the SPROTS RITER STATZ:
Harrell: 140.2IP, 163H/194ER, 81K:82BB, 6.01 ERA/1.74 WHIP. 19HR
Backe: 166.2IP, 202H/112ER, 127K:77BB. 6.05 ERA/1.67 WHIP. 36HR
Let's look a little closer:
Harrell: 10.4 Hits/9; 1.2 HR/9; 5.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9; 0.99 K:BB ratio
Backe: 14.5 Hits/9; 3.5 HR/9; 4.2 BB/9, 6.9 K/9; 1.67 K:BB ratio
Alright. Immediately we see that Backe allowed more hits and gave up far more homers than Harrell has. But Harrell has more walks and fewer strikeouts. Let's keep going:
Harrell: .312 BABIP; 5.52 FIP, 5.04 xFIP
Backe: .324 BABIP; 5.87 FIP; 4.83 xFIP
These stats can be naturally skewed. Home runs and BABIP, for instance, for Backe. FIP and Shifts for Harrell, too.
But both had fastball problems...
Harrell: -23.3 wFB, -9.2 wFA
Backe: -23.2 wFB, -21.2 wFA
You can even look at the Plate Discipline numbers (via FanGraphs) and see similarities:
Harrell: 28.1% O-Swing%; 78.9% O-Contact%; 86.6% Contact%
Backe: 31.5% O-Swing%; 59.4% O-Contact%; 77.9% Contact%
The percentage of pitches that opposing batters swung at outside the zone is similar (28.% for Harrell, 31.5% for Backe), but hitters made far less contact on Backe's pitches overall than Harrell (86.6% Contact% for Harrell, 77.9% for Backe).
So I don't really know what you do with this information, other than to say, "Wow. That's moderately interesting."
Yesterday, I was going through to see if Harrell's 2013 season is the worst pitching season in Astros history. That was some depressing research. I'll finish it one day, when it's 16 degrees on a January night and everyone else is asleep.
HA! you scoff. Backe was The King! you say. And, for a few years, you were right. I'll always have a soft spot in the back of my head for Brandon Backe. But 2008 Brandon Backe was rough...and comparable to Harrell's 2013.
Let's just look at the SPROTS RITER STATZ:
Harrell: 140.2IP, 163H/194ER, 81K:82BB, 6.01 ERA/1.74 WHIP. 19HR
Backe: 166.2IP, 202H/112ER, 127K:77BB. 6.05 ERA/1.67 WHIP. 36HR
Let's look a little closer:
Harrell: 10.4 Hits/9; 1.2 HR/9; 5.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9; 0.99 K:BB ratio
Backe: 14.5 Hits/9; 3.5 HR/9; 4.2 BB/9, 6.9 K/9; 1.67 K:BB ratio
Alright. Immediately we see that Backe allowed more hits and gave up far more homers than Harrell has. But Harrell has more walks and fewer strikeouts. Let's keep going:
Harrell: .312 BABIP; 5.52 FIP, 5.04 xFIP
Backe: .324 BABIP; 5.87 FIP; 4.83 xFIP
These stats can be naturally skewed. Home runs and BABIP, for instance, for Backe. FIP and Shifts for Harrell, too.
But both had fastball problems...
Harrell: -23.3 wFB, -9.2 wFA
Backe: -23.2 wFB, -21.2 wFA
You can even look at the Plate Discipline numbers (via FanGraphs) and see similarities:
Harrell: 28.1% O-Swing%; 78.9% O-Contact%; 86.6% Contact%
Backe: 31.5% O-Swing%; 59.4% O-Contact%; 77.9% Contact%
The percentage of pitches that opposing batters swung at outside the zone is similar (28.% for Harrell, 31.5% for Backe), but hitters made far less contact on Backe's pitches overall than Harrell (86.6% Contact% for Harrell, 77.9% for Backe).
So I don't really know what you do with this information, other than to say, "Wow. That's moderately interesting."
Monday, September 9, 2013
Lucas Harrell and Oakland
Consider how terrible Lucas Harrell has been this season:
6.01 ERA/1.74 WHIP. 81K:82BB. 19 homers allowed. .858 OPS-against (.390 OBP-against).
9.19 ERA/2.10 WHIP since the All-Star Break with 14K:25BB in 32.1IP.
ERAs over 7.00 in May (7.53), July (8.41), August (11.08), and September (9.82).
In the last week, he's allowed 14H/8ER, 5K:5BB, 2HR in 7.1IP.
But look specifically at Oakland, and they're responsible for a decent chunk of Harrell's problems. It started in G6 at home: 4.1IP, 7H/8ER, 2K:5BB, 3HR.
In G49 Harrell lasted 1.2IP, allowing 6H/6ER, 1K:3BB.
There were back-to-back relief stints in G119/120 where he held the A's to 2H/0ER, 1K:1BB in 4.1IP.
And then yesterday, when Harrell allowed 7H/7ER, 2K:2BB in 3IP.
So in five games total against the As, Harrell has thrown 13.1IP, 22H/21ER, 6K:11B, 4HR for a 14.18 ERA/2.48 WHIP. And to narrow that down to the three starts, it's 9IP, 20H/21ER, 5K:10BB.
And before you go saying "Well, it's just Oakland. They're good" (you'd be right), but keep in mind that, against Texas, he has a 10.05 ERA/2.23 WHIP in four appearances. Detroit? Two starts, 12.54 ERA/2.57 WHIP; St. Louis? Two appearances, 12.79 ERA/2.68 WHIP.
I don't know what you take from this. But it's clear that good teams who see Harrell more than once can take advantage of it.
6.01 ERA/1.74 WHIP. 81K:82BB. 19 homers allowed. .858 OPS-against (.390 OBP-against).
9.19 ERA/2.10 WHIP since the All-Star Break with 14K:25BB in 32.1IP.
ERAs over 7.00 in May (7.53), July (8.41), August (11.08), and September (9.82).
In the last week, he's allowed 14H/8ER, 5K:5BB, 2HR in 7.1IP.
But look specifically at Oakland, and they're responsible for a decent chunk of Harrell's problems. It started in G6 at home: 4.1IP, 7H/8ER, 2K:5BB, 3HR.
In G49 Harrell lasted 1.2IP, allowing 6H/6ER, 1K:3BB.
There were back-to-back relief stints in G119/120 where he held the A's to 2H/0ER, 1K:1BB in 4.1IP.
And then yesterday, when Harrell allowed 7H/7ER, 2K:2BB in 3IP.
So in five games total against the As, Harrell has thrown 13.1IP, 22H/21ER, 6K:11B, 4HR for a 14.18 ERA/2.48 WHIP. And to narrow that down to the three starts, it's 9IP, 20H/21ER, 5K:10BB.
And before you go saying "Well, it's just Oakland. They're good" (you'd be right), but keep in mind that, against Texas, he has a 10.05 ERA/2.23 WHIP in four appearances. Detroit? Two starts, 12.54 ERA/2.57 WHIP; St. Louis? Two appearances, 12.79 ERA/2.68 WHIP.
I don't know what you take from this. But it's clear that good teams who see Harrell more than once can take advantage of it.
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
What in the world happened to Lucas Harrell?
When the Astros claimed Lucas Harrell off waivers in July 2011, our initial question was "Which OKC starter does he replace or which Houston reliever does he replace?" He spent six weeks at Triple-A, going 5-2 with a 1.71 ERA/1.25 WHIP and a .275 BABIP.
He got the call-up to Houston in September, and in his Astros debut threw 5.1IP against Milwaukee, allowing 3H/0ER, 4K:2BB. He came out of the bullpen a few times over the month, made an inefficient - but not terrible - start in a 19-3 loss to Colorado, and closed out his season with a perfect inning against the Cardinals.
Harrell was in the mix for a rotation spot in 2012, mainly because he was out of options. He was initially ruled out of the rotation in the middle of Spring Training but pitched better as March 2012 went along, which was basically the opposite of rotation favorite Jordan Lyles - who was 0-3 with an 8.41 ERA. Lyles was optioned to OKC and Harrell got the rotation spot.
And, for a season, was perhaps the Astros most reliable starter. In 2012, Harrell made 32 starts. He went at least seven innings ten times; 6+ IP 16 times. In 19 starts, he posted a Game Score of 50 or better, 11 were a 60 or better. The team actually went 14-18 in his starts, meaning they went 41-89 in games Harrell did not start.
Fast forward a year (don't worry, we'll come back to 2012), and Harrell has been a disaster: He lost his rotation spot and has been ineffective in the bullpen. Among all MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 110IP (Harrell is at 122.1IP), only the Padres' Jason Marquis has a lower WAR as assigned by FanGraphs. Harrell is one of three pitchers with 110+ IP to post a negative WAR: Jerome Williams (-0.3), Harrell (-0.5), and Marquis.
It's not bad luck
In 2012, Harrell had a .289 BABIP - a little lucky, but not a Happian BABIP. So far this season, Harrell has a .301 BABIP, which is perfectly normal. His ERA is 5.37, and while that's almost exactly in line with his 5.41 FIP, it's decently higher than his 4.92 xFIP. But that still isn't very good.
Walks
Harrell has allowed 5.15 BB/9, an increase of more than 1.5 BB/9 from 2012. 12.6% of the batters he has faced in 2013 have walked. He's just throwing fewer strikes. 1328 of his 2293 pitches have been strikes, or a tick under 58%. In 2012, 62.4% of his pitches were thrown for strikes.
Fewer groundballs, more HRs
In 2012, Harrell induced groundballs at a 57.2% clip. This year that's down to 52%. What's more, 15% of the flyballs Harrell is allowing are leaving the yard - 4th-highest in baseball (min. 110IP) - and up from 9.7% in 2012. Okay, so he's getting more flyballs, and a higher percentage of those flyballs are going over the fence.
His fastball has been terrible
While Harrell's velocity hasn't seen a significant dropoff (92.1mph in 2013; 92.5mph in 2012), It's effectiveness is seriously in question. FanGraphs put his wFB (Fastball runs above average) in 2012 at 13.4. This year? Wait for it...-14.3. Pitchf/x doesn't show such a marked difference (-1.3 in 2012 to -8.1 in 2013), but the damage is being done in that his fastball just isn't a good pitch this season.
Nobody is fooled
Hitters are swinging at 39% of Harrell's total pitches - down 3.4% in 2012. Yet they're making more contact (+1.2% from 2012) overall. Harrell is also throwing far fewer of his pitches in the zone - 41%, down from 49.2% in 2012. So if you know that Harrell isn't going to throw strikes, why swing?
Here's how it breaks down:
Harrell held righties to a .663 OPS in 2012 (.883 OPS in 2013); .713 OPS for lefties (.783 OPS in 2013). He also had a .647 OPS at home (.850 OPS in 2013), .712 on the road (.800 OPS in 2013), with an identical .293 BABIP.
Here's the cycle: Harrell isn't throwing as many strikes, so hitters aren't swinging as much. Harrell gets too much of the plate with his largely ineffective fastball, and it's leaving the park at a markedly higher rate. If he tries to nibble, he misses, and walks the batter. He's leaving the ball up, and hitters are driving it out of the park. That, my friends, is what has happened. And it's starting with his fastball.
He got the call-up to Houston in September, and in his Astros debut threw 5.1IP against Milwaukee, allowing 3H/0ER, 4K:2BB. He came out of the bullpen a few times over the month, made an inefficient - but not terrible - start in a 19-3 loss to Colorado, and closed out his season with a perfect inning against the Cardinals.
Harrell was in the mix for a rotation spot in 2012, mainly because he was out of options. He was initially ruled out of the rotation in the middle of Spring Training but pitched better as March 2012 went along, which was basically the opposite of rotation favorite Jordan Lyles - who was 0-3 with an 8.41 ERA. Lyles was optioned to OKC and Harrell got the rotation spot.
And, for a season, was perhaps the Astros most reliable starter. In 2012, Harrell made 32 starts. He went at least seven innings ten times; 6+ IP 16 times. In 19 starts, he posted a Game Score of 50 or better, 11 were a 60 or better. The team actually went 14-18 in his starts, meaning they went 41-89 in games Harrell did not start.
Fast forward a year (don't worry, we'll come back to 2012), and Harrell has been a disaster: He lost his rotation spot and has been ineffective in the bullpen. Among all MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 110IP (Harrell is at 122.1IP), only the Padres' Jason Marquis has a lower WAR as assigned by FanGraphs. Harrell is one of three pitchers with 110+ IP to post a negative WAR: Jerome Williams (-0.3), Harrell (-0.5), and Marquis.
It's not bad luck
In 2012, Harrell had a .289 BABIP - a little lucky, but not a Happian BABIP. So far this season, Harrell has a .301 BABIP, which is perfectly normal. His ERA is 5.37, and while that's almost exactly in line with his 5.41 FIP, it's decently higher than his 4.92 xFIP. But that still isn't very good.
Walks
Harrell has allowed 5.15 BB/9, an increase of more than 1.5 BB/9 from 2012. 12.6% of the batters he has faced in 2013 have walked. He's just throwing fewer strikes. 1328 of his 2293 pitches have been strikes, or a tick under 58%. In 2012, 62.4% of his pitches were thrown for strikes.
Fewer groundballs, more HRs
In 2012, Harrell induced groundballs at a 57.2% clip. This year that's down to 52%. What's more, 15% of the flyballs Harrell is allowing are leaving the yard - 4th-highest in baseball (min. 110IP) - and up from 9.7% in 2012. Okay, so he's getting more flyballs, and a higher percentage of those flyballs are going over the fence.
His fastball has been terrible
While Harrell's velocity hasn't seen a significant dropoff (92.1mph in 2013; 92.5mph in 2012), It's effectiveness is seriously in question. FanGraphs put his wFB (Fastball runs above average) in 2012 at 13.4. This year? Wait for it...-14.3. Pitchf/x doesn't show such a marked difference (-1.3 in 2012 to -8.1 in 2013), but the damage is being done in that his fastball just isn't a good pitch this season.
Nobody is fooled
Hitters are swinging at 39% of Harrell's total pitches - down 3.4% in 2012. Yet they're making more contact (+1.2% from 2012) overall. Harrell is also throwing far fewer of his pitches in the zone - 41%, down from 49.2% in 2012. So if you know that Harrell isn't going to throw strikes, why swing?
Here's how it breaks down:
Harrell held righties to a .663 OPS in 2012 (.883 OPS in 2013); .713 OPS for lefties (.783 OPS in 2013). He also had a .647 OPS at home (.850 OPS in 2013), .712 on the road (.800 OPS in 2013), with an identical .293 BABIP.
Here's the cycle: Harrell isn't throwing as many strikes, so hitters aren't swinging as much. Harrell gets too much of the plate with his largely ineffective fastball, and it's leaving the park at a markedly higher rate. If he tries to nibble, he misses, and walks the batter. He's leaving the ball up, and hitters are driving it out of the park. That, my friends, is what has happened. And it's starting with his fastball.
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Orioles could target Harrell or Bedard
While the asking price on Bud Norris remains high for the Orioles taste, they could be looking at a trade for Lucas Harrell or Erik Bedard, according to Ken Rosenthal.
GM Dan Duquette:
We’ve been just trying to upgrade our pitching. I don’t know if there will be many more opportunities to do that, but we’re going to keep looking around. This AL East is a dogfight.
GM Dan Duquette:
We’ve been just trying to upgrade our pitching. I don’t know if there will be many more opportunities to do that, but we’re going to keep looking around. This AL East is a dogfight.
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Lucas Harrell: Kind of a douche?
And so, as it turns out, following Tuesday's 9-5 loss to the Cardinals in which Harrell appeared in relief for Bud Norris, and gave up 4H/2ER, 0K:2BB in 3IP two days after his move to the bullpen, Harrell and Lyles had a "heated clubhouse confrontation."
Harrell: "It was just a heated argument."
Lyles: "Teammates being teammates."
But Bo Porter got to the heart of it:
It happens. It's part of the game. It actually should never leave the clubhouse. You discuss it. You figure out your differences and you move on.
And there it is. It shouldn't have left the clubhouse. We don't know who talked about the heated clubhouse confrontation first: Harrell, Lyles, or even somebody else. But there is no reason for this to come out five days after the fact. If it comes out Wednesday, then it's a Crime of Passion. For it to happen Tuesday and come out Sunday? That's bush league. And it's not exacty out of character for Harrell to complain to the media.
Remember how Bo Porter found out Harrell was pissed about the defensive positioning? When someone asked him about them. Porter:
Listen, if you have something to say, and you want to voice your opinion, I have a complete open-door policy. I didn't hear about Lucas' comments until I got to the ballpark.
And don't forget how pissed he got a few days after getting sent to the bullpen. That was a week ago today.
In fact, getting all pissed off about something isn't out of character for Harrell: Shifts/defensive positioning, an experiment with a six-man rotation last September, working with Jason Castro last year. When everything's great, Harrell's a pretty good pitcher. Problem is, it never seems to be great.
It seems like Porter and Harrell have a sit-down/clear-the-air talk every few weeks. I'm ready for it to stop.
Harrell: "It was just a heated argument."
Lyles: "Teammates being teammates."
But Bo Porter got to the heart of it:
It happens. It's part of the game. It actually should never leave the clubhouse. You discuss it. You figure out your differences and you move on.
And there it is. It shouldn't have left the clubhouse. We don't know who talked about the heated clubhouse confrontation first: Harrell, Lyles, or even somebody else. But there is no reason for this to come out five days after the fact. If it comes out Wednesday, then it's a Crime of Passion. For it to happen Tuesday and come out Sunday? That's bush league. And it's not exacty out of character for Harrell to complain to the media.
Remember how Bo Porter found out Harrell was pissed about the defensive positioning? When someone asked him about them. Porter:
Listen, if you have something to say, and you want to voice your opinion, I have a complete open-door policy. I didn't hear about Lucas' comments until I got to the ballpark.
And don't forget how pissed he got a few days after getting sent to the bullpen. That was a week ago today.
In fact, getting all pissed off about something isn't out of character for Harrell: Shifts/defensive positioning, an experiment with a six-man rotation last September, working with Jason Castro last year. When everything's great, Harrell's a pretty good pitcher. Problem is, it never seems to be great.
It seems like Porter and Harrell have a sit-down/clear-the-air talk every few weeks. I'm ready for it to stop.
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