It would be great, but it has to be on their side also. If we can reach an agreement at some point it needs to be [before] the season starts because once the season starts, I don't want to be involved with any negotiations.
*The Astros took what I'm assuming is a good step towards extending Carlos Correa by settling with him on a contract for 2021 worth $11.7m (a little more than $500K over the midway point of their pre-arbitration gap), thus avoiding a Grisham-esque courtroom showdown involving the Astros telling their impending free agent superstar shortstop that he is not worth as much money as he thinks he is. Correa:
I'm happy that we were able to come to an agreement and avoid arbitration. Arbitration is not a good process. I want to thank James Click, Jim Crane and my agent, Jon Rosen, for getting the deal done. I'm ready to play and represent the Houston Astros.
And we are ready for Correa to play and represent the Houston Astros. Chandler Rome notes that Click and Correa have had talks regarding an extension, but wanted to get this year's deal out of the way first.
*The Coward Mike Fiers is back with Oakland for 2021 on a 1yr/$3.5m deal. Anyhow, Oakland opens the 2021 season with four home games against the Astros from April 1-4, then three games against the Dodgers from April 5-7, then three games in Houston from April 8-10. If the A's open with Fiers as SP5, he'd miss the opening series but then catch them on Saturday, April 10 in Houston. If I'm...whoever the manager of the A's is now then I'm throwing him in Oakland and letting Fiers avoid having to pitch in Houston. Because it would just be preposterous for one of your five starters to miss the first ten games of the season, especially when they occur within ten days.
If we're talking Oakland, it's worth mentioning that Arlington and Oakland swung a trade exchanging Elvis Andrus (who committed two errors in the 7th Inning of Game 5 of the 2015 ALDS) and Khris Davis.
*New minor-league OF Steven Dinesh D' Souza is a Tyler Bauer apologist who GOES ALL IN on the replies. Never go all in on the replies.
*Houston Chronicle: The sons of Former Astros Greats Roger Clemens and Mike Capel - Kacy Clemens and Conner Capel - were cleared of wrongdoing and awarded $3.24m in damages related to a bar fight at Concrete Cowboy over two years ago.
*The Astros signed Former Astros Great Johnny Sh Jason Castro to a 2-year deal. Allegedly it's for $7m total, with incentives up to an additional $2m based on the games he catches.
Castro ranks #1 on the all-time FanGraphs Astros Catcher leaderboard with 10.8 fWAR. He's seven home runs away from tying Alan Ashby for the most homers by an Astros catcher. Friend of Astros County (FOAC) Daren Willman notes that Castro ranked in the Top 20 in MLB for Hard-Hit rate over the span from 2019-2020, and he is a good defensive catcher, and will be a valuable backup in managing the pitching staff for Machete. I can't be mad at this move, but if I'm Garrett Stubbs, I'm livid.
FanGraphs' Ben Clemens on the Castro signing. This is a really good in-depth article about what Jason Castro brings to the Astros.
*Carlos Correa said - after getting sent to an arbitration hearing - he wants to be "an Astro for life." We also find that the Astros basically were out on Springer as soon as he turned down the Qualifying Offer, which is very cool.
*It is very early in the offseason but Jake Kaplan took Crack 1.0 at the Opening Day roster. (Please let me be clear: I am not accusing Jake Kaplan of "taking Crack." I am simply saying that he took a stab at what the Opening Day roster. Please let me be clear: I am not saying that Jake Kaplan stabbed somebody. I am saying you know what never mind. Jake Kaplan stabs people while smoking crack.)
*Chandler Rome says Michael Brantley's return is a good counter from the absence of Springer's production.
*Baseball Prospectus has their 101 Prospects list. It's paywalled, and I don't have a subscription (I have to draw the line somewhere), but I have deduced that Forrest Whitley is 69th and Jeremy Pena is 82nd. Pena is also MLB.com's pick for Best Defensive Prospect.
*SI: It's beyond time to change the treatment of women reporters.
*Because there was no other reason to occupy their time, the Secret Service did a 9-month investigation into John Mulaney because of a joke on Jimmy Kimmel's show.
But at 3:02pm Mark Berman reported the Astros had agreed to a 2yr/$32m deal with Brantley, precisely the contract he signed before the 2019 season. McTaggart notes that the deal isn't finalized just yet.
*Toronto was able to surpass the Mets' bid (6yrs/$120-$125m) and ink George Springer to a 6yr/$150m deal last night. Never mind that I said in the Chronicle back in October that 6yrs/$150m would get a deal done with Springer, though it was believed earlier this month that he was looking for a deal in the $175m range. The Astros were apparently never really engaged in bringing back Springer. It was just last Friday that "GM" James Click said, regarding Springer and Brantley, "we're gonna go where the market dictates sometimes and sometimes we are gonna push the market and make it come to us." Apparently the market dictated that the Astros were going to go the Extreme Shift route and play with a one-man outfield. The Astros do not spend in free agency, that's just a fact.
So what have the Astros lost, besides the spark plug for the best lineup in franchise history?
*At 26.6 fWAR, Springer was 0.2 fWAR behind Terry Puhl for the 5th-highest fWAR for an outfielder in franchise history.
*His 174 home runs are 3rd-most for an Astros outfielder, and 5th-highest for an Astro.
*His 134 wRC+ is 2nd in franchise history for an Astros outfielder who played more than 500 games for the team.
*His .491 SLG and .852 OPS are both 6th all-time in franchise history.
*His 39 leadoff home runs are 2nd in franchise history, 14 behind Hall of Famer Craig Biggio which Springer could have passed by, I don't know, May?
*His 19 postseason home runs are most all-time, and his 2017 World Series Game 5 home run that came minutes after his diving misplay in centerfield remains my favorite home run of all time.
Despite me being mentally prepared for Springer's departure back in early November, the Astros also lost a whole lot of their heart and soul. It's entirely possible that Springer just didn't want to play in Houston, and I can get it. I'd been hearing whispers that Springer wanted to be closer to home in Connecticut and now he can live in Toronto, play in Boston and New York 20-ish times a year. Obviously summers in Toronto are preferable to summers in Houston (if you're from Connecticut).
And let's not discount how fans around baseball have signed a personal services contract with Amnesia when it comes to badass members of the 2017 Astros coming to their team. Not getting booed everywhere has some non-monetary advantages, I would imagine.
*Since the Astros gave Springer a qualifying offer, they'll get an extra pick after the 4th Round of the 2021 Draft, if that's something that matters to you.
*Chandler Rome: A face and voice of the Astros' golden era is gone.
*Toronto is scheduled to play at Minute Maid Park May 7-9.
*At some point soon I'll take a look at possible replacements, but not today.
*Outside: A Nepali team just made the first winter summit of K2.
*I wrote about a fake plot to kidnap nuns and force them into sex slavery, Samuel Morse, the "Harper" in "Harper Collins Publishing," an inspiration for Scorsese's "Bill the Butcher," and the 1856 elections, if that's something you're interested in.
Been a while, yeah? Because nothing - Astros-wise, anyway - is happening. Well that changed a little bit yesterday. A shame, really, I had gotten used to not having to think about the Astros.
*The deadline to settle arbitration cases was yesterday and the Astros could not come to an agreement with Carlos Correa, and so they will head to a hearing. Correa wanted $12.5m, the Astros offered $9.75m. That's quite a gap.
I do not understand this decision. Let's recap what has happened since October 2019:
1. Brandon Taubman popped off at some reporters about domestic violence, getting himself fired in the process.
2. The Astros lost every home game of the World Series.
3. The Mike Fiers story dropped, which resulted in Luhnow and Hinch getting fired and the Astros becoming the most hated single team in Baseball since 1919.
4. COVID-19.
And through all of that, Correa became the face of the franchise, standing up for his teammates and bearing that burden to the public, allowing guys like Altuve and Bregman to sit back in the shadows (as much as that is possible, anyway). And you can't come up with the extra $2.75m to pay him? He is going to be a free agent at the end of the 2021 season, you think maybe, if you want a little goodwill in the negotiations with the best shortstop in franchise history?
*FanGraphs' WAR, Astros shortstops:
1. Correa: 19.4
2. Dickie MF Thon: 14.3
3. Adam Everett: 9.2
In 45 fewer games than the man largely considered to be the best defensive shortstop in franchise history, Correa has put up 10.2 more fWAR. Since he came into the league in 2015 - even given the injury-shortened seasons - Correa has the 5th most fWAR among shortstops, in more than 150 fewer games than three of the four players ahead of him. I know baseball economics are allegedly what they are in a pandemic/post-pandemic scenario, but it's also important to never believe a billionaire when they cry poor. I could have stopped that sentence after "billionaire." And so, now, approximately ten months before he's set to become a free agent in his Age 26 season, the Astros will go before a panel and tell Correa that he's not worth as much as he thinks he is. Seems real smart. Click:
We have nothing but the utmost respect for Carlos and his group. Again, I can't emphasize this enough: I think they came very well prepared and I think we were very well prepared, but we just see different things in the market and that's why the system is there to help us resolve those.
*In the last couple of weeks, the Astros have added veterans Ryne Sandberg Stanek and Pedro Baez to the bullpen. The back four of the bullpen will be Stanek, Baez, Joe Smith, and Ryan Pressly. Click that link and McTaggart will tell you the Astros are engaged on Brad Hand, Alex Colome, and Trevor Rosenthal. So obviously, the Astros are trying to shore up their bullpen and will just get to the 2/3 of the outfield that is apparently missing, exiled to Weiland Island. Click, on Springer/Brantley:
Those two guys are very special to this franchise and we will continue to have conversations, but we're, like I've said, gonna go where the market dictates sometimes, and something we are gonna push the market and make it come to us.
This is an excellent example of saying something and it's full of nothing at all.
*I totally missed the rumor that the Astros are interested in Joakim Soria, who at this point just must be 52 years old.
*Houston signed 22-year old Cuban OF Pedro Leon to a $4m signing bonus, in a long-rumored move. Click:
He's a special talent. He has all five tools, and a sixth one if you count just how good he is at the game of baseball from an instincts perspective - tremendous off-field guy. There's just not enough good things that we can say about him.
Click said how quickly he rises through the system depends on Leon, but they're not planning on him immediately replacing Brantley or Springer.
*The Tri-City ValleyCats, formerly of the historic New York-Penn League, have sued the Astros for lost revenue over the minor-league contraction/restructuring that got rammed through by Soulless Ghoul Rob Manfred (for a non-paywalled link, click here). The complaint:
MLB's intimidation tactics, which it used to pit MiLB teams against each other for the 'privilege' of not having their businesses destroyed, has gone on for years but was most vividly demonstrated by a May 2020 email in which Commissioner Rob Manfred emailed the ValleyCats' owner condolences on the passing of his father, and then in the very same email, issued a veiled threat that any public statement made about MLB's contraction efforts would be 'unwise.'
MLB is arguing that it wasn't really a threat, and there's nuance that is missing. Actively trying to remember why I even care about this sport.
So the Winter Zoom Meetings came to an end on Thursday. The Astros lost Jose Alberto Rivera to the Angels in the Rule 5 Draft, as well as outfielder Drew Ferguson to the Mets and catcher Chuckie Robinson to the Reds in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
Rivera will be 24 in 2021 and is coming off a 2019 season in which he threw 75.2IP, 61H/32ER, 95K:36BB, but is most notable for throwing 102mph. He has to stick on the Angels' active roster for the whole season or be returned to the Astros. Prior to 2020, I would not have thought it possible to make it on an MLB roster for the entire season after having never been above Low-A. But who knows. The Angels paid $100,000 for Rivera, and if he gets DFA'd or sent to the minors, the Astros have the opportunity to get him back for $50,000. James Click said the Rule 5 rules mean that there's a good chance they get him back, and they needed the 40-Man Roster flexibility:
If we've added Rivera, we'd obviously be down to one [roster spot], and we've got quite a few holes on the roster to be filled. So we anticipate additional roster changes over the course of the season and had to balance the need for those roster spots over the next couple months with the ability to protect a player like that.
Ferguson was the Astros' 19th Round pick in the 2015 Draft and hit .281/.395/.440 at Round Rock in 2019. Chuckie Robinson was the Astros' 24th Round pick in the 2016 Draft and hit .217/.276/.324 at Corpus in 2019.
The Astros also picked up pitcher Joe Record in the Minor-League Phase of the draft, and pitcher Seth Martinez. Record was the Twins' 27th Round pick in 2017. He threw 55IP in 2019 - his professional debut - between Low-A and High-A, posting a 5.07 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with 68K:16BB.
Martinez, 26, was Oakland's 17th Round pick in 2016. In 2019 Martinez threw 71.2IP, 50H/20ER, 74K:18BB, 2.51 ERA/0.95 WHIP.
If immediately we have not addressed some of the areas that we have identified as needs, that doesn't mean we're not looking to do that later in the offseason. We're going to have that patience and make sure that we wait until we get to Spring Training - or maybe even a little bit into Spring Training based on previous winters - to assess this roster and how this offseason has gone.
He also said the Astros are still engaged in talks with representatives for both George Springer and Michael Brantley. Click here for McTaggart's un-paywalled version of the Click conversation.
Adding Realmuto to an infield that includes Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve could be a masterstroke, particularly if a lack of competing offers suppresses Realmuto's contract requirements.
He also predicts Springer to the Mets for 5yrs/$110m.
*If you look at FanGraphs' Depth Charts for 2021, you see the Astros are projected for a .545 win% - 88-74 - or the 3rd-best record in MLB (and the top team in the AL). I don't know how FanGraphs is doing this, but I'm not going to question it.
*An Italian man had an argument with his wife and then walked 280 miles to "clear his head."
*"Xmas or Bust:" The Untold Story of National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation.
*Leeds United v West Ham at 2pm Central Friday.
*A pre-Musical Selection: I'm obsessed with Kent Nishimura's YouTube channel:
*The Musical Selection for today, which came from a movie my kid watch a few weeks ago, and hasn't been out of my head since. So you can have this happen to you:
*The Astros and Rangers are checking in on catcher and Former Astros Great Jason Castro, according to Jon Morosi.
*The Rule 5 Draft is today, because the Winter Meetings would have - in any other year - been this week. I guess the Winter Meetings still happened, but, like, all on Zoom. And I guarantee you the Mets talked for at least 90 seconds on Zoom before having to be told that their mic was muted. The Astros have the 15th pick in the Rule 5 Draft.
*MLB.com's Must-Watch Topic for the Astros is whether or not they can re-sign Springer. "Can" they, and "Will" they, or "Does Springer even want to stay in Houston?" are also other ways to ask that question. The Mets are "engaged" with George Springer.
*Will Leitch has Jose Altuve as the Astros' prime bounce-back candidate in 2021.
*As Major League Baseball continues its full-frontal assault on the fabric of the sport itself, the Astros announced their minor-league affiliates for 2021 and beyond: Sugar Land (Triple-A), Corpus (Double-A), adding Asheville (High-A), which is replacing Fayetteville (Low-A) at that level. Asheville - one of the more historic minor-league franchises - was actually an Astros' affiliate in 1967, 1982 and 1983, but had been a Colorado affiliate since 1994. I guess in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really matter, but I'm surprised that Fayetteville (who has a year-old stadium) got dropped a level. Fare thee well Tri-City and Quad Cities. Jake Kaplan has a good breakdown of how the Astros' minor-league affiliates are structured now.
The future of the Lancaster Jethawks, a Former Astros Great Affiliate, is in limbo.
*Joe Smith talked about his decision to sit out the 2020 season, returning in 2021, and the passing of his mother in August.
*Dusty Baker is the guest on tonight's Astroline.
*SI: Do the White Sox have baseball's best rotation?
*Ars Technica: Meet the new generation of puzzle-makers bringing mystery to your door.
*Hot Links are going to be hit or miss for a little bit as soon I'll actually about to be able to start writing a manuscript I've spent seven years researching, on Andrew Jackson's 1833 guano-crazy tour of New England. My goal is to be done with it before the 2021 season starts, and then I can blow you up on social media asking you to pre-order my book.
*Joel Sherman says the Mets' top targets include George Springer and Trevor Bauer. And it wouldn't be the first time that a beloved Astros outfielder signed a free agent deal with the Mets.
*This is from about a week ago, but the Nationals' Spencer Kieboom built his life around baseball, and then quietly walked away. Good article.
*Leeds United lost to The Bastard Frank Lampard's Chelsea 3-1 on Saturday, and I was still so mad last night putting up the Christmas Tree that my wife got mad at me. Leeds are at 8% to get relegated, according to FiveThirtyEight. With 14 points after 11 games, Leeds are in a decent position. What's more, out of Leeds' first 11 games, they've played teams currently in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th (with 3 wins, 1 tie, 4 losses in those eight games). I did the math, and in the last ten seasons of the Premier League, the 18th place team - the highest of the relegated teams - averaged 35 points. Leeds still has 27 games to get 22 points and remain in the Premier League AND THEN DOMINATE.
There isn't much to report today, but it turns out that I somehow kind of miss doing this. So here we go! I do hope you enjoy your Thanksgiving and if you're staying at home instead of meeting up with family, you're not alone. AC HQ is doing the same thing. If you're joining a massive family gathering, I do hope you take plenty of precautions. This pandemic isn't permanent, but we sure can extend the hell out of it.
*Brian McTaggart has an inbox about possible Springer replacements (should it come to that), the possibility of a Robinson Chirinos reunion, Yordan, Verlander, Michael Brantley, and Sugar Land.
*Bob Klapisch: 2021 Spring Training could be delayed by 4-6 weeks with the possibility of another shortened season.
*Diego Maradona passed away on Wednesday at the age of 60. I mean, screw that guy AND SCREW THE REFEREES who allowed his Hand of God goal to stand, but Maradona was a genius. A brilliant, self-destructive genius, but a genius nonetheless. If you have access to HBO, you should definitely check out the documentary about him.
*Texas Monthly: Hundreds of people are knitting sweaters for a hairless possum in Lubbock.
*Outside: In the Hill Country, these veterans find community through trail running. Last week I tripped on the dog and then tripped on something else, and fell backwards into the side of the couch. I have bruised ribs, possibly cracked, pulled - possibly torn - a muscle near my kidney. This happened right as I was recovering from a broken foot in July when I slipped on some water on the tile near my back door. 2020 can suck it. Running trails sounds awesome. And good for those Vets.
Ya Mans is quarantined due to a possible exposure to COVID. Been playing a lot of chess online and hooboy am I bad at thinking more than one step ahead. Shame, really.
*George Springer - who would have made $21m in a normal 2020 season - officially turned down the Astros' $18.9m qualifying offer. This is not a surprise and you should not treat it as such. It's Springer's only/last big contract of his career and he's going to get it from Houston or Boston, or someplace else that gives him the bag. Keep an eye on the Mets.
*Shane Bieber unanimously won the AL Cy Young. Framber got a lone 5th-place vote to finish 11th from Toronto beat writer Arden Zwelling. Former Astros Greats Gerrit Cole and Dallas Keuchel finished 4th and 5th, respectively. Tyler Bauer is somehow the first Reds pitcher - like, literally the oldest team in all of organized baseball - to win a Cy Young. How do you screw around for 151 years and not accidentally luck into one?
*The biggest Astros news of the day was that Former Astros Great Jeff Luhnow has sued the Houston Astros in Harris County District Court for $22m for a breach of contract, alleging that his firing was negotiated between Jim Crane and Rob Manfred. ESPN:
Luhnow's attorneys wrote in the filing that the agreement between Crane and Manfred 'scapegoated Luhnow for a sign-stealing scandal that he had no knowledge of and played no part in.'
Luhnow wants a jury trial and hoooooboy would that be something. Just from a "burn it all down" perspective I want this to happen.
In the filing we find Luhnow's lawyers alleging that Tom Koch-Weser, the Astros' director of advance information and the "Dark Arts/Codebreaker" guy, was told by the Astros that he could keep his job as long as he implicated Luhnow.
Brian T. Smith: The lawsuit adds more tarnish to the once-golden Astros era.
David Barron says not to expect some grand John Grisham-esque courtroom drama - it'll likely play out in a closed-door arbitration case.
*Toronto has expressed interest in George Springer. I have expressed interest in Indian food for lunch today.
*Tony LaRussa was charged with a DUI the day before the White Sox hired him, if you want to know how that's going. And the White Sox knew, and hired him anyway.
*Last week I wrote in the Chronicle about how the Astros could possibly hold on to both George Springer and Carlos Correa. One step was to non-tender Roberto Osuna, which happened on Thursday, and Osuna will depart with a complicated legacy.
On one hand, Osuna was reportedly nothing but a model teammate and citizen in his time as an Astro. He did not ask to be traded to Houston. However, the Astros did trade for Roberto Osuna, knowing that his value was depressed due to a 75-game suspension for domestic violence. In one trade, the Astros burned up a lot of goodwill, and it directly led to the Brandon Taubman "I'm so f***ing glad we got Osuna" outburst which, when combined with the Mike Fiers story, was the impetus for the hammer absolutely being brought down on the organization. He posted a 2.45 ERA / 0.87 WHIP and saved 51 games in 2+ seasons with the Astros. His ERA is the 10th-lowest in franchise history among relievers who threw at least 90IP. I'm not sad he's gone.
*George Springer is #2 on FanGraphs' Top 50 Free Agents list. While I do think the Astros will make a competitive run at Springer, I still remain unconvinced that he doesn't want to be closer to home (Connecticut). I'm mentally preparing myself for Springer hitting bombs over the Green Monster for the next six years, which means that the Astros better have Correa's agent on the phone figuring out a long-term extension. Michael Brantley is 12th.
*AJ Hinch was such a toxic personality in the wake of the sign-stealing scheme that the Detroit Tigers waited an entire 30 minutes after 2020 World Series Game 6 ended to give him a call, and he has signed a multi-year deal to manage the Tigers. The Astros will play the Tigers at Minute Maid Park - presuming the world hasn't gone all the way to hell by then - from April 12-14, 2021.
And in another show of just How Seriously MLB is Taking The Punishments Of Those Involved, the Red Sox have reached out to Alex Cora about their managerial vacancy.
*The Astros cut some front office staff, which included Friend of Astros County Kevin Goldstein, and I'm very Mad about it. Jiminy Clicket isn't off to a great start, with me.
*Pocket: Blood-curdling stories of hauntings, monsters, and real-life horrors.
*McSweeney's: An open letter to the woman who was questioned by a police officer for merely sitting in her car in a Target parking lot after midnight taking a break from her family.
*Rob Manfred, an empty ghoul shell wrapped in a pretty nice suit, hopes MLB keeps the larger postseason field and the runner on 2nd to start extra innings going forward.
*I wrote about the 1916 Black Tom Munitions Explosion in Jersey City. It was a lot of fun for me because there were just a ton of "wait WHAT?" moments in the research.
*The Guardian: Chess' cheating crisis - paranoia is now the culture.
*Eamon Duffy: Four centuries of trying to decode, decipher, or translate this medieval text have left people baffled.
*The presidential election is less than two weeks away. I did some research and put together a list of 244 counties whose results I'll be watching closely on Election Night...and, likely, the days following. If the county name is in Bold, it means it flipped - either way - from the 2012 to 2016 presidential elections.
And in the end the Astros lost their last game of the season, something that has happened in 58 of their 59 seasons. Despite out-hitting Tampa 59-44, Houston lost a seven-game series getting outscored by a total of three runs. The Rays simply took advantage of more mistakes than the Astros. That said, coming back from an 0-3 deficit to force a Game 7 for a 3rd Pennant in four years, in a "season" in which you got six innings from Justin Verlander, nine PAs from Yordan Alvarez, 4.1IP from Roberto Osuna, is extremely impressive. I'm mad as hell, but I appreciate what this team did since the end of July. Super-appreciative of the ride they gave us, but I'm going to need some space from this team.
The legacy of this group is that these guys are ballpayers. These guys are men; they have been through a whole bunch other than on the ballfield. Now these guys can forget the problems they had that it out there and come together as a group and be forever friends.
This is painful when you're one game away from going to the World Series. I'm proud of these guys, because nobody expected us to even be in the position or even to be here....One thing's for sure: We'll be back in this position again next year.
*MLB: Anatomy of the Astros' comeback, and near-miss.
*Houston, as a team, was 11x46 with runners in scoring position. The 2020 ALCS, w/RISP:
Saturday's loss lived as a microcosm of Houston's 73-game run, one riddled with ineffectiveness, injury and invective from the outside following the sign-stealing scandal. The lineup disappeared, as it so often did during a 29-31 regular season. A clutch hit never came.
*Carlos Correa drove in the only two runs of Game 7. He hit .362/.455/.766 in the 2020 Postseason, with 17 RBI. Correa:
We didn't fold. We kept battling. We got to the playoffs and no one gave us a chance in Minnesota. We won three games against Oakland. They beat us in the regular season and we came up huge and won that series. Down, 0-3, everybody was talking about the Astros getting swept and this and that. We came back and forced Game 7. It wasn't the finale we wanted, but I'm just proud of this team, man. It's been unbelievable.
*I have no idea, and will never understand, why the Astros continued to challenge Randy Arozarena. Arozarena hit a 2-run home run.
Arozarena: .321/.367/.786 in the ALCS
Ji-Man Choi: .385/.529/.615 in the ALCS
Nobody else in that lineup had an average over .278. Six of the Rays' Game 7 lineup had an ALCS average under .167. Sixteen of the 25 runs the Rays scored - yes, they only scored 25 runs in seven games - came on home runs. Kevin Cash:
We are lucky to have Charlie Morton. For a group that doesn't have a wealth of experience in these roles, Charlie does. He has been there, done that. It lined up really, really well for us.
*Charlie Morton in Game 7s, career: 14.2IP, 6H/1ER, 15K:3BB. Beginning with the 2017 ALCS Game 7, Morton has recorded seven straight Wins in the postseason.
It sucks, man. It really does. But congrats to the Rays. They're a damn good team. They've been the best team in the AL all season. They went through the Yankees and they went through us. You have to tip your cap to them, as well. It sucks because it just feels like we were right there.
We got down 3-0 and we fought and we showed the kind of team and kind of grit that makes up this team. We weren't on a revenge tour. That's not what this was. This was a bunch of guys that came together, wanted to play damn good baseball and win a World Series. And we fell short of our goal.
*Bregman, 2020 Postseason: .220/.316/.300. After recording three straight two-hit games from ALDS Game 3-ALCS Game 1, Bregman went .083/.154/.083 in 26 PAs. And we still don't know why Bregman was pulled late in Game 7.
Bregman, 2020 until the hamstring injury: .272/.374/.500, 13 extra-base hits, 15K:14BB.
Bregman, 2020 after the hamstring injury: .187 (I'm bad at calculating OBP and SLG)
I'm extremely proud of this team for fighting every single day, battling every pitch and going out there and playing hard and playing for one another. But like I said before, our goal is always to win the last game of the season, so it's time to work extremely hard in the offseason and get better.
*Gurriel, 2020 Postseason: .114/.245/.114.
*Jayson Stark: The Weird and the Wild of ALCS Game 7.
*Of course now the focus of the front office turns to free agency. Is this the end of the Astros era? George Springer, Michael Brantley, and Josh Reddick are all free agents once the World Series ends. Correa, on Springer:
Some guys that we love very much and we've been playing with forever, and hopefully they come back, but if they don't, we're going to miss them for sure. We've got George Springer. He's been my teammate since I got to the big leagues and been a great leader and role model.
Springer:
I haven't really thought about that yet. Our season just ended. I'm more focused on kind of what's happening now, what happened tonight, and I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.
*Jerome Solomon: There is plenty for the Astros to look forward to.
*Jake Kaplan: All the looming off-season questions for the Astros.
*Now, I guess we just wait. Read for pleasure. Go to bed early. Drink some herbal tea. Hot Links will continue throughout the off-season with or without Astros news. Thank you for reading along.
I knew I was going to end it. I could feel my swing was in sync. I could feel my rhythm was good, and I felt like I was going to drive the ball. I believed I could do it.
Bregman got a bunch of guys together to watch Four Days In October prior to Game 5.
Carlos Correa has played in 61 postseason games and has two walk-off homers. Carlos Correa has played in 604 regular season games and has zero walk-off homers. He joins David Ortiz and Bernie Williams as the only players with 2+ postseason walk-off home runs.
You push our backs up against the wall, we're going to fight you. This team is filled with a bunch of fighters, and I'm happy to be a part of it.
Pressly has gotten 4+ outs in a game 94 times in his career. Houston has only asked him to do it nine times, and only once prior in the postseason (2018 ALDS Game 1).
Now, after two consecutive 4-3 losses, [Tampa's] foothold on that narrow edge has slipped, and the Astros, still hanging on by their fingertips, somehow haven't loosened their grip. The little swings of fortune - the lone hit coming at the perfect time; the defender standing in just the right place to make the incredible play - have begun to go in their favor. The Rays, of course, are still in a great position to take this series. But the Astros, who just a few days ago seemed done, are doing their best not to make it easy.
The last two games he's been outstanding. He's been driving the ball, giving us huge hits, the big homer yesterday, big homer today to get things started. He is the guy that we look to when you look at that time. He's the leadoff guy. When he gets things going man, we're a scary team.
*Jose Altuve: 1x2, 2BB. It's the 6th postseason 2BB game of his career. Three of them have come in 2020.
*Michael Brantley DH'd in Game 5 after fouling a couple of pitches off the inside of his foot and was 1x4 with a crucial 2RBI single, the 4th multi-RBI postseason game of his career. All have come with Houston, three of them in the 2020 postseason.
I don't have the words to really explain it. All I know is that they're fearless, and I'm so proud of them...I can't really explain how I'm feeling and how to describe how good and how composed they've kept themselves throughout this entire series.
The Astros finally got a hit with a runner in scoring position that actually scored a run and managed to hold on for a 4-3 win in Game 4. The season lives to see another day. Springer, Correa, Altuve, Bregman, and Gurriel played in their 54th postseason game together - the most by any five teammates all time. Game 5 is at 4:07pm Central on TBS.
Nobody's ready to go home. I'm not ready to go home. Nobody's ready to go home. We're ready to go to Dallas. We're still one step closer to the top of that mountain, but we got a couple steep cliffs the next couple days.
As of right now we don't know who's pitching for the Astros in Game 5.
*Jose Altuve: 2x4, HR, 2RBI. 100% successful throws to the bag. Altuve has homered in five of his last six postseason games (ALCS Game 2). Altuve, 2020 Postseason: .333/.447/.744, 5HR/10RBI. He now has 73 postseason hits, passing Roberto Alomar for most all-time by a 2B in postseason history.
*George Springer: 3x4, HR, 2RBI. They were his first RsBI since ALDS Game 2. Springer, prior to Game 4:
Just go out and play as hard as you possibly can. Go leave everything out there. Don't leave any doubt. If there's a play that you think you have to dive, dive...Your backs are up against the wall. And you got to grind and fight, and the end of the day, whatever happens happens.
Springer and Altuve have now homered in the same postseason game four times. The only other duo to hit a home run in more games is Springer and Correa (7).
Astros Postseason HR Leaderboard:
1. Altuve/Springer: 18
3. Correa: 16
4. Bregman: 11
5. Beltran: 8
6. Berkman: 6
Springer and Altuve's 18 postseason home runs are tied for 5th on the all-time leaderboard. Springer:
Sometimes it's frustrating to hit the ball hard in general and have a guy be there. But you know what? That's the game. I got to do better at kind of not showing a lot of frustration because it really is part of the game. You know, sometimes I'm going to get jammed and I'm going to sneak it in there, and there's other times we're going to hit one hard and be out. It kind of is what it is, and I'm happy to help us today.
*Zack Greinke: 6IP, 5H/2ER, 7K:1BB. More importantly, Greinke got himself out of a jam in the 6th Inning, a move that did not happen in Game 7 of the 2019 World Series. It was Greinke's first postseason Win since 2015 NLDS Game 2, when he was with the Dodgers. Greinke:
It was nice having someone have confidence in me because since I've been here they haven't seemed to have confidence in my ability. It was nice having that happen in an important time like that.
I can't lie to you. There were some prayers involved on the way back to the dugout.
Zack Greinke has made 30 (regular and postseason) starts for the Astros. He has gotten 18 outs in 17 of them. Greinke, on Dusty trusting his gut:
I would say he is really, really good at that. I've been impressed. He reads people really good, and I don't think I've ever seen him make a wrong decision. When he trusts what he sees, he sees the right thing almost 100 percent of the time.
Kevin Cash, on Greinke:
Greinke really, really pitched. He has a really good changeup. The changeup and the little cut fastball that he throws, there's not a ton of velo separation there, but there's a lot of depth separation. We got chasing on the changeup and the front-door cutters that he was throwing, cut fastballs to the righties, it looked like he was just painting, wherever he wanted to.
Welcome to the 2019 World Series. The Astros got nine hits, four walks, two hits with runners in scoring position that somehow didn't score any runs, lined their way into outs while the Rays hit shots off the end of their bat that found a hole, left ten men on base, struck out 13 Rays, and lost 2-1. Baseball is a faithless whore. It's Charlie Morton vs. Lance McCullers at 3:07pm today and I'm sure the announcers will focus on Charlie Morton's presence on the 2017 World Series team and all the [waves hands] you know.
Ultimately the Astros had Snell on the ropes (105 pitches in 5IP?) and couldn't get more than Altuve's home run. Tampa has enough Actual Wizards in their bullpen - all flowing hair and weird beards and capes - that they can't let those opportunities go to waste like that. Not that anyone needed this type of #analysis.
George Springer's lineout in the 1st had an expected batting average (xBA) of .700. Kyle Tucker's liner that resulted in a double play in the 4th Inning had an expected batting average of .790. Michael Brantley's groundout in the 5th had an xBA of .540. George Springer's groundout in the 7th had an xBA of .510. Those are the four highest xBAs of the night that didn't actually result in a hit. Extremely 2019 World Series vibes. Chandler Rome noted that, of the 12 balls the Astros hit harder than 93mph off the bat, only five fell for hits. Dusty:
It's disappointing. We hit some balls good. Opportunity's the name of the game. If you keep getting opportunities, sooner or later you're going to come through. If you don't get an opportunity, you don't have a chance. We had a heck of a chance tonight, and they just got away.
Bregman:
We were hitting the ball hard, hitting line drives. We didn't punch out a lot. I thought the at-bats were awesome. We just didn't get that big hit tonight. That's baseball. If we keep putting up those good at-bats, I like our chances.
The Astros allowed two runs and struck out 13 batters, and lost. The only time that's happened in a Houston postseason game prior to last night was Game 5 of the 1986 NLCS ew no stop typing now. Houston is 6-2 in the postseason under that extremely specific criteria.
*Richard Justice, on the key plays that all somehow went the Rays way.
*Framber was great: 6IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:4BB. He joins Gerrit Cole, Randy Johnson, Dallas Keuchel, Nolan Ryan, and Justin Verlander as the only Astros pitchers in franchise postseason history to throw 6IP, 4H/2ER, with 8K. And, true to Astros fashion, Houston is 6-4 when they get starts like that. Framber:
I feel like this year I've had a chance to really demonstrate the pitcher that I am and that I always have been. I had, in the past, where things could get away from me a little bit in the middle of the game, but I've made adjustments to my game this year...For me, I just feel blessed to have the success that I've had this year.
*Jose Altuve put the Astros on the board in the 1st Inning with a solo shot off Blake Snell that proved to be the only Astros run of the game. It's his 16th postseason home run (four behind Yeah Jeets for the most in MLB postseason history by a middle infielder and six more than Chase Utley for the all-time postseason home run mark by a 2B), and he has now hit a home run in three straight postseason games. Petco Park is the 22nd park in which Altuve has hit a home run. All-time multi-hit postseason games:
*In the regular season, the Astros hit .212/.447/.338 with a full count. With a full count in Game 1:
Springer: 0x2
Altuve: 0x1
Brantley: 0x1
Bregman: 2x2
Correa: 0x0, 2BB
Gurriel, 0x0, BB
*Gurriel: When Yuli Gurriel came up with the bases loaded in the 8th and one out, Tampa's win expectancy was just 51.9%. One pitch later it was 86.7%. From when he started with the Astros through the 2020 Wild Card Series, Gurriel had GIDPd once in 194 postseason PAs. He's done it twice in his last 18 postseason PAs now.
*Mike Zunino had swung the bat five times on the first pitch in the 2020 regular season. He had hit .125/.250/.375 with two outs in the regular season. He had hit .158 with runners in scoring position all year. He had two hits with runners in scoring position and two outs all year long. I hate this game. Game 1, yes. But also, baseball.
*Aledmys Diaz's AB in the 5th was Extremely Stupid. John Curtiss had thrown 17 pitches before facing Diaz with runners on 1st and 3rd. Ten of them - including six of the previous seven pitches - were balls. Yet Diaz shot the ball into the ground on the 1st pitch Curtiss threw to ground out and end the inning.
*FanGraphs: With super-subs and unlikely stars, the Rays take Game 1. Jon Tayler:
With this bullpen and modular lineup - and having to face Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton - there are many ways to lose to the Rays and few to beat them. Score early and they'll scratch you to death, bit by bit, as their hitters grind away and seemingly always have the platoon advantage. Fail to score early and you'll be facing the best bullpen in baseball and a team that hasn't lost a single game this year in which it's held a lead after the seventh inning. And even if it all goes right, watch as the likes of Mike Zunino and his 65 wRC+ this season drives in the go-ahead run with a single off your best starter.
*Pedro Gomez: Where did Randy Arozarena come from? Dude takes a knee every AB (from swinging out of his shoes) and nobody gets mad at him.
*CC Sabathia, on the Yankees' ALDS decisions: "What the f--k?"
*Wired: How to block bad websites - or just get things done.
*Check out this bullcrap: The English Football League (everything below the Premier League) have a plan to overhaul English soccer by placing control in the hands of the top Premier League teams. Of course Manchester United (owned by the Glazer family) and Liverpool (owned by the Bastard John Henry) love it.
*The Economist: The Secret Life of a Private Tutor to the Wealthy...which immediately led me to this.
Well that was less than ideal. Not the end of the world, but not ideal. Houston had a 7-4 going into the 7th, which translates into a 91.1% win expectancy via FanGraphs. And now the A's have hope, which is the worst possible thing a Team Like That can have. Game 4 is at 2:35pm Central on TBS.
*It was the 22nd time in franchise history that the Astros have scored 7+ runs in a postseason game. They're now 19-3, the last such loss coming in Game 1 of the 2004 NLCS.
*It will be Frankie Montas vs. TBA today. We'll find out who takes the mound later this morning. Is it Cristian Javier, and that's why Javier didn't pitch in Game 3? Or will it be Zack Greinke? The pressure mounts! Montas is coming off a 2020 regular season in which he posted a 5.60 ERA/1.51 WHIP with 10HR in 53IP. He has thrown 2IP (Wild Card Series Game 3) since September 27. In 15.1IP against Houston in 2020 he allowed 14H/7ER, 14K:3BB, a 4.11 ERA / 1.11 WHIP.
*Chandler Rome: We still don't know what's up with Zack Greinke.
I look at it like we're still in the lead. This team's been there before. These guys don't seem really worried about it. We got beat today. We made some mistakes. Hopefully, we don't make those mistakes tomorrow.
*Houston's opponents have scored first in four of the five 2020 playoff games. Houston is now 3-1 in those games.
*The Astros were 3x8 w/RISP, Oakland was 1x6. Oakland's one hit was just a back-breaking 3-run home run from Some White Guy Who Looks Like He Sells Insurance. Josh James hadn't pitched since September 22. It's debatable on whether or not this was the time to do it, but it was a three-run lead, and I don't know that there was a better option than Raley to clean it up. Just one of those games. And a guy named Chad hit it. That's ridiculous. As to leaving Raley in, I know you try to win every game, but I'm okay with letting him work through it because it saved some arms you'll need today and (hopefully not) tomorrow. It wasn't my favorite move to leave James in, but I can justify it to myself. Josh James:
It's tough, but everybody wants to get put in that situation. You always feel like you're the right guy for the job. You go out there no matter how long it's been, and you compete. Today, I got beat. It's part of the game.
You know who didn't pitch in Game 3? Enoli Paredes, Blake Taylor, Cristian Javier, Ryan Pressly.
*SI's Emma Baccellieri: The bad Astros bullpen has been good, and the good Oakland bullpen has been bad.
*Jose Urquidy: 4.1IP, 5H/4ER, 3K:1BB, 4HR. He had given up 4HR total in 29.2IP in the 2020 regular season. He had given up 2HR in a single game three times in his entire professional career, the only MLB start in which he gave up two or more home runs was July 31, 2019, and twice in 2016 when he was with Lancaster.
*Brooks Raley walked the leadoff batter, who later became Oakland's go-ahead run. It dawned on me recently that I have absolutely no idea how Brooks Raley ended up on the 2020 Houston Astros, so I looked it up: he was acquired on August 9 from the Reds for a PTBNL. Putting Osuna on the 45-Day IL was the corresponding move.
*George Springer was 0x4 with 3Ks, the 5th 3K game of his postseason career. In each of the last three times he's had a 3K day, the game following was a 2+ hit game, so that's good news for today.
*Jose Altuve was 3x5 with an RBI. His seven 3+ hit postseason games are the most in franchise history, and tied for the 5th most in AL postseason history.
*Alex Bregman was 2x4 with an RBI. The Astros are now 8-3 in the postseason when Bregman gets 2+ hits.
*Aledmys Diaz hit a massive game-tying two-run home run, and it was the first postseason home run of his career.
*How do you justify pinch-hitting Reddick for Maldonado? With Correa on 3rd, Tucker on 2nd, and two outs, and Maldonado's spot up, Dusty put in Reddick against Liam Hendriks. Also, Liam Hendriks looks like this. Ol' Shrek lookin headass.
Righties (Maldonado) vs. Hendriks (a righty) in 2020: .135/.148/.154, 18K:1BB
Lefties (Reddick) vs. Hendriks in 2020: .200/.243/.314, 19K:2BB.
First off, shoutout to Liam Hendshreks. That's a really good slash line, no matter from what side of the plate you prefer. Now:
Maldonado vs. Righties, 2020: .185/.324/.337, 4HR, 12RBI
Reddick vs. Righties, 2020: .236/.307/.358, 3HR, 13RBI
Neither is a *great* option. You needed a 2-out hit. In his career pinch-hitting:
Reddick: 80 PAs, .176/.225/.189, 1XBH, 22K:5BB
All this is to say...whatever. I don't get it. But what other options were there. Reddick could have been a hero. He wasn't. So it goes. Could Maldonado have done it? Maybe! It was a choice between this, Which Smells Worse: Your Butt, or Your Feet? The world will never know which choice actually smelled worse.
