After four business days, my acute insomnia has decided to kick in (work is going to suck tomorrow). Luckily(!) the Astros made a move and signed Michael Brantley to some deal (details later, probably in the hot links). I've never been all that impressed with Brantley. A large part of that is that he can't seem to stay on the field. He's never played a full 162 games. He's surpassed 150+ games twice in a 10-year big league career. When he is health, oh boy! Watch out!
He's a career .295/.351/.468 hitter (that's a .339 wOBA for you nerds). He walks at around average and strikes out way less than Chris Carter (remember him!) at a 10.7% rate. Everyone seems to think that there's now an outfield crunch, what with the Astros still having the rights to veteran outfield Josh Reddick, in his prime George Spring, young Tony Kemp (love that guy) and the up and comer Kyle Tucker (dude gives zero fux, right now). I don't think Brantly will play the outfield though. Have you see his defensive metrics?
His fielding percentage is solid at .994%, however, advanced metrics HATE the dude. His Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) are well into the negatives for his career. TL;DR he's not good in the outfield. Which is why I think he fits nicely in the designated hitter role for the Astros, with an occasional start in the outfield or first base(?). Last year the DH hit for .243/.308/.480 line. Brantley provides more of a balanced hitter over what the Astros had last year. More actual hitting, better on-base percentage with the substitute for power. Tyler White was really good as the right handed DH for the Astros last year with a .276/.354/.533 line (.377 wOBA for you nerds). Brantley is a left-handed bat that (forgot to mention that) can compliment White nicely.
What do you think? Brantley plays the field (dumb) or starts most of his games as DH (running theory).
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label Chris Carter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chris Carter. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Monday, August 13, 2018
Monday Morning Hot Links
IF THE ASTROS AREN'T GOING TO TRY TO WIN BASEBALL GAMES, THEN I'M NOT GOING TO WRITE ABOUT THEM. Well, maybe I will, but I can assure you I will be very sad when I write these.
Here's the Astros "Legends" Home Run Derby results. Who would I pick for the 2019 Home Run Derby? Well, I'm glad you asked! Give me actual legends like Craig Biggio, Lance Berkman, Chris Carter, and I guess we can keep Luke Scott if he continues to hit dingers like he did. Now THAT'S what I call a Home Run Derby! (and yes I am aware Chris Carter is much younger than the other Astros I listed and therefore, he would probably win but I don't care because dangit he IS an Astros legend and deserves this honor. Miss u Trogdor. Come back to Minute Maid Park, flick your wrist, and send some baseballs over the oxy sign </3)
If you missed the derby or just want to listen to Steve Sparks hurl high pitch screams into a handheld microphone he clearly forgot he was holding, you can check out the entire competition here.
Well we knocked out the pregame festivities. The Astros lost again. Let's not drag this out any longer than it needs to be. For the first time in history, the Mariners have won 4 in a row against Houston.
Edwin Diaz is ridiculously elite.
Really the only good thing the Astros did was this.
Officer John Barnes, who was vital in stopping the Sante Fe school shooting in May, threw out the first pitch at yesterday's game.
Forrest Whitley will be off the DL very soon.
Chandler Rome talks the bright spot that is Tyler White.
Relief pitcher Devin Raftery has made a pretty cool comeback to professional baseball after the Astros cut him due to a devastating injury.
Here is your daily injury roundup!
Altuve - Still can't run. Still a very fuzzy timeline for a return.
Devenski and McCann - Expect a rehab assignment sometime this week.
Marisnick - Probably won't be back until September.
McCullers - September
Springer - Eligible to come off the DL Thursday. He cannot swing a bat right now, so he will likely need more than the minimum time.
Look at my dudes, the crows, keeping our planet clean.
Some students in Egypt created an air-powered car.
On This Day in Baseball History
In 1951, the Dodgers had Musical Depreciation Night, where you got in free if you brought your musical instrument to the game.
In 1979, Lou Brock got his 3000th hit.
In 1995, 63 year old Mickey Mantle lost his battle with liver cancer.
In 2006, Greg Maddux pitched to Barry Bonds three times. This is the only game that a 300+ game winner pitched to a 700+ home run hitter.
Here's the Astros "Legends" Home Run Derby results. Who would I pick for the 2019 Home Run Derby? Well, I'm glad you asked! Give me actual legends like Craig Biggio, Lance Berkman, Chris Carter, and I guess we can keep Luke Scott if he continues to hit dingers like he did. Now THAT'S what I call a Home Run Derby! (and yes I am aware Chris Carter is much younger than the other Astros I listed and therefore, he would probably win but I don't care because dangit he IS an Astros legend and deserves this honor. Miss u Trogdor. Come back to Minute Maid Park, flick your wrist, and send some baseballs over the oxy sign </3)
If you missed the derby or just want to listen to Steve Sparks hurl high pitch screams into a handheld microphone he clearly forgot he was holding, you can check out the entire competition here.
Well we knocked out the pregame festivities. The Astros lost again. Let's not drag this out any longer than it needs to be. For the first time in history, the Mariners have won 4 in a row against Houston.
Edwin Diaz is ridiculously elite.
Really the only good thing the Astros did was this.
Officer John Barnes, who was vital in stopping the Sante Fe school shooting in May, threw out the first pitch at yesterday's game.
Forrest Whitley will be off the DL very soon.
Chandler Rome talks the bright spot that is Tyler White.
Relief pitcher Devin Raftery has made a pretty cool comeback to professional baseball after the Astros cut him due to a devastating injury.
Here is your daily injury roundup!
Altuve - Still can't run. Still a very fuzzy timeline for a return.
Devenski and McCann - Expect a rehab assignment sometime this week.
Marisnick - Probably won't be back until September.
McCullers - September
Springer - Eligible to come off the DL Thursday. He cannot swing a bat right now, so he will likely need more than the minimum time.
Look at my dudes, the crows, keeping our planet clean.
Some students in Egypt created an air-powered car.
On This Day in Baseball History
In 1951, the Dodgers had Musical Depreciation Night, where you got in free if you brought your musical instrument to the game.
In 1979, Lou Brock got his 3000th hit.
In 1995, 63 year old Mickey Mantle lost his battle with liver cancer.
In 2006, Greg Maddux pitched to Barry Bonds three times. This is the only game that a 300+ game winner pitched to a 700+ home run hitter.
Sunday, July 8, 2018
Sunday Morning Hot Links
*The Astros are 1-0 when Kyle Tucker plays in Houston, avenging - finally! - the 2005 World Series loss by taking their 6th straight win, and eight of their last nine, against the White Sox. It's their 5th win in a row. They're 60-31.
*The Astros scored 12 runs on 17 hits. The twelve runs are the 3rd-highest for the Astros in 2018. The 17 hits are the 2nd-highest total of the season. Last night the Astros got seven extra-base hits (five doubles, two home runs) - it's the 6th time this season that Houston got at least seven extra-base hits. They're the second team in MLB to 60 wins.
*Game Number for the Astros' 60th win:
2018: 91
2017: 89
2016: 115
2015: 106
2014: 139
2013: Folks,
2012: I mean
2011: Well
2010: 131
2009: 122
2008: 119
2007: 134
2006: 127
2005: 112
2004: 120
2003: 111
2002: 115
2001: 109
2000: 140
1999: 100
1998: 101
*Houston has scored 27 runs in three games against the White Sox. They scored 24 runs in their previous seven games.
*Josh Reddick was the only member of the lineup to not get on base at least twice. Bregman and Stassi had three hits each.
*Alex Bregman hit his 17th home run of the season in his 399th plate appearance of the season. He hit 19 home runs in 2017, and his 17th home run in his 612th plate appearance of 2017. Bregs:
I think we're swinging the bats well. I think we're playing good baseball, and I think our pitching staff is throwing the ball really well, and offensively we've done a good job of passing the baton to the next guy, and if we continue to do that, we'll be successful.
*Via the previous link from McTaggart, Jose Altuve is nine hits shy of his own record for hits before the All-Star Break.
*Yuli Gurriel was 2x4 with a home run and a walk and 4RBI. In his last five games, Yuli has raised his OPS from .727 to .775.
*Maximus Stassi was 3x5 with 2RBI. His three hits in a game are a career-high.
*George Springer stole his first base since June 16. He's stolen six bases in his last seven attempts dating back to May 9.
*Kyle Tucker was 1x4 with 3K and a walk so why was Jake Marisnick even optioned. I'm sorry I'm sorry I'm trying to delete it. Tucker:
It was awesome. I had a lot of fun tonight and we came up with the win, so that makes it even better. Just being in the big leagues is awesome, especially this team.
Jake Kaplan: Why now's the right time to promote Tucker.
Luhnow, on Tucker's promotion:
When you have a top guy like that and you're blocking him for reasons other than the fact that he's not ready, you have to question whether you're doing the right thing for the organization. We want him to get exposure this year and to answer the question whether he's a guy that should be in our lineup game one of the postseason.
Tucker's promotion and Marisnick's demotion says a lot about Tony Kemp, writes Chandler Rome. On Kemp, Luhnow:
It didn't affect when we were going to call up Kyle Tucker, but it did affect the move we were going to make to clear space for him. Tony has come up and played well.
MLB.com's Jim Callis, on what to expect from Tucker.
*Charlie Morton threw 5.2IP, 5H/5ER, 8K:2BB - the most ER CFM has allowed since June 3. Charlie F. Morton's starts with 0ER allowed: 5
Charlie F. Morton's starts with 4+ ER allowed: 3
Hinch:
I feel bad for Charlie because he got a little nickel and dimed at the end with a few soft hits and an ill-timed walk and then a well-placed, bases-clearing double. I thought his stuff was really good at the end. That saying that he pitched better than the line indicates, that's going to be the day today. Still a winning pitcher, still a guy that gave us a chance to win.
CFM's last three starts: 19.1IP, 32K:6BB. Morton has now gone six straight starts (35IP) without allowing a home run. His career-high without allowing a home run is eleven straight starts (64IP)- from April 20 through June 20, 2011.
*Ken Giles allowed a home run to Avisail Garcia in the 8th. It's the 2nd home run he's allowed in 2018, first since May 1 against the Yankees (the Right Cross game), a span of 83 batters.
*The bullpen needed 46 pitches to get through 3.1IP to close out the game.
*Hunter Atkins: In light of Verlander approaching 200 wins, is 300 even possible anymore?
*The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo writes that the Astros have shown interest in Chicago's Jose Abreu, saying that he's a better offensive option than Gurriel and Gattis.
*NW Arkansas outhit Corpus 6-5 but lost 4-0. Corbin Martin threw 5IP, 4H/0ER, 3K:0BB and Framber Valdez followed him up with 4IP, 2H/0ER, 6K:1BB. DH Ryne Birk was 0x1 with 3BB.
*Brett Adcock did the damn thing with 5IP, 1H/0ER, 3K:1BB but Hector Perez allowed 3H/3ER, 2K:3BB in a 4-2 loss to Myrtle Beach. Adcock's last two starts: 10IP, 2H/0ER, 4K:3BB.
*Cesar Rosado's line for Quad Cities: 6.1IP, 3H/2ER, 12K:3BB, WP, HBP, in a 6-4 loss to Burlington. Seth Beer was 3x5 with an RBI to raise his average to .412. It's okay. He was the only batter in Quad Cities' lineup hitting over .258.
*In a got dang Circle of Life thing, to make room for Jon Kemmer the Twins released cHRis Carter.
*For sure, man: Robinson Cano compares his 80-game PED suspension to his grandfather's death.
*Representative Jim Jordan is a piece of crap. Oh, so is convicted felon Dinesh D'Souza.
*Baltimore Baseball's Jack Gibbons, on slain reporter Rob Hiassen, whose brother wrote many novels which I have enjoyed.
*The Astros scored 12 runs on 17 hits. The twelve runs are the 3rd-highest for the Astros in 2018. The 17 hits are the 2nd-highest total of the season. Last night the Astros got seven extra-base hits (five doubles, two home runs) - it's the 6th time this season that Houston got at least seven extra-base hits. They're the second team in MLB to 60 wins.
*Game Number for the Astros' 60th win:
2018: 91
2017: 89
2016: 115
2015: 106
2014: 139
2013: Folks,
2012: I mean
2011: Well
2010: 131
2009: 122
2008: 119
2007: 134
2006: 127
2005: 112
2004: 120
2003: 111
2002: 115
2001: 109
2000: 140
1999: 100
1998: 101
*Houston has scored 27 runs in three games against the White Sox. They scored 24 runs in their previous seven games.
*Josh Reddick was the only member of the lineup to not get on base at least twice. Bregman and Stassi had three hits each.
*Alex Bregman hit his 17th home run of the season in his 399th plate appearance of the season. He hit 19 home runs in 2017, and his 17th home run in his 612th plate appearance of 2017. Bregs:
I think we're swinging the bats well. I think we're playing good baseball, and I think our pitching staff is throwing the ball really well, and offensively we've done a good job of passing the baton to the next guy, and if we continue to do that, we'll be successful.
Turn up the volume ...— Matt Young (@Chron_MattYoung) July 7, 2018
Geoff Blum: “Good spot for a homer.”
<Bregman blast>
Todd Kalas: “Really?”
Blum: “You’re welcome.” pic.twitter.com/t6KL1p70MO
*Via the previous link from McTaggart, Jose Altuve is nine hits shy of his own record for hits before the All-Star Break.
*Yuli Gurriel was 2x4 with a home run and a walk and 4RBI. In his last five games, Yuli has raised his OPS from .727 to .775.
*Maximus Stassi was 3x5 with 2RBI. His three hits in a game are a career-high.
*George Springer stole his first base since June 16. He's stolen six bases in his last seven attempts dating back to May 9.
*Kyle Tucker was 1x4 with 3K and a walk so why was Jake Marisnick even optioned. I'm sorry I'm sorry I'm trying to delete it. Tucker:
It was awesome. I had a lot of fun tonight and we came up with the win, so that makes it even better. Just being in the big leagues is awesome, especially this team.
Jake Kaplan: Why now's the right time to promote Tucker.
Luhnow, on Tucker's promotion:
When you have a top guy like that and you're blocking him for reasons other than the fact that he's not ready, you have to question whether you're doing the right thing for the organization. We want him to get exposure this year and to answer the question whether he's a guy that should be in our lineup game one of the postseason.
Tucker's promotion and Marisnick's demotion says a lot about Tony Kemp, writes Chandler Rome. On Kemp, Luhnow:
It didn't affect when we were going to call up Kyle Tucker, but it did affect the move we were going to make to clear space for him. Tony has come up and played well.
MLB.com's Jim Callis, on what to expect from Tucker.
*Charlie Morton threw 5.2IP, 5H/5ER, 8K:2BB - the most ER CFM has allowed since June 3. Charlie F. Morton's starts with 0ER allowed: 5
Charlie F. Morton's starts with 4+ ER allowed: 3
Hinch:
I feel bad for Charlie because he got a little nickel and dimed at the end with a few soft hits and an ill-timed walk and then a well-placed, bases-clearing double. I thought his stuff was really good at the end. That saying that he pitched better than the line indicates, that's going to be the day today. Still a winning pitcher, still a guy that gave us a chance to win.
CFM's last three starts: 19.1IP, 32K:6BB. Morton has now gone six straight starts (35IP) without allowing a home run. His career-high without allowing a home run is eleven straight starts (64IP)- from April 20 through June 20, 2011.
*Ken Giles allowed a home run to Avisail Garcia in the 8th. It's the 2nd home run he's allowed in 2018, first since May 1 against the Yankees (the Right Cross game), a span of 83 batters.
*The bullpen needed 46 pitches to get through 3.1IP to close out the game.
*Hunter Atkins: In light of Verlander approaching 200 wins, is 300 even possible anymore?
*The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo writes that the Astros have shown interest in Chicago's Jose Abreu, saying that he's a better offensive option than Gurriel and Gattis.
*NW Arkansas outhit Corpus 6-5 but lost 4-0. Corbin Martin threw 5IP, 4H/0ER, 3K:0BB and Framber Valdez followed him up with 4IP, 2H/0ER, 6K:1BB. DH Ryne Birk was 0x1 with 3BB.
*Brett Adcock did the damn thing with 5IP, 1H/0ER, 3K:1BB but Hector Perez allowed 3H/3ER, 2K:3BB in a 4-2 loss to Myrtle Beach. Adcock's last two starts: 10IP, 2H/0ER, 4K:3BB.
*Cesar Rosado's line for Quad Cities: 6.1IP, 3H/2ER, 12K:3BB, WP, HBP, in a 6-4 loss to Burlington. Seth Beer was 3x5 with an RBI to raise his average to .412. It's okay. He was the only batter in Quad Cities' lineup hitting over .258.
*In a got dang Circle of Life thing, to make room for Jon Kemmer the Twins released cHRis Carter.
*For sure, man: Robinson Cano compares his 80-game PED suspension to his grandfather's death.
*Representative Jim Jordan is a piece of crap. Oh, so is convicted felon Dinesh D'Souza.
*Baltimore Baseball's Jack Gibbons, on slain reporter Rob Hiassen, whose brother wrote many novels which I have enjoyed.
Monday, February 19, 2018
Monday Morning Hot Links
Position players officially report today.
*A.J. Hinch gave the Astros pitchers and catchers a short workout day, and they pretty much took him up on it. Except for Ken Giles, who has apparently added muscle mass in an effort to build stamina for what is hopefully a long season:
I don't take light days. That's the thing with me. I don't like taking short break days. I always go out there with a mindset of getting something done. I set a goal for myself and I'm going to do it.
*Lance McCullers' most recent bullpen featured some tutorials with Justin Verlander. Verlander:
Spring training time, it's a time to have new ideas, tweak things. I'm trying to see some opportunities that I can help or impart some wisdom of a guy that's been around for a little while. Trying new things, hearing different opinions, that's how you get better.
*Verlander is relishing his role as mentor before he goes out and throws 31 Quality Starts in 2018.
*Brad Peacock is pretty pumped about his "unlimited" role in 2018. Peacock reflected on his personal World Series run (four appearances, 7.1IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:3BB) and how he was able to keep his emotions in check:
I felt fine. It's what you've been working for your entire life. It's what you dream about since you were a little kid. You've got to be ready for it. I just felt ready, I felt calm.
*You won't be able to get this Jose Altuve Funko Pop! figurine in stores until May.
*The Astros' Spring Training site buddy Washington Nationals, who have posted four 95+ win seasons in their last six and have not yet won a playoff series (they've lost in G5 of the NLDS in three of those four seasons), are a little salty about seeing the World Series Champion Houston Astros sign on the entrance to Spring Training. One Nationals player:
We should've been the team playing the Astros in that Series.
*Something weird happened at FanGraphs as they're now projecting the Astros to go 89-73, ten games behind the Yankees for the best record in baseball.
*The Angels signed Chris Young to come off the bench and probably hit 100 home runs off of the Astros. The dude has a career .746 OPS but has hit .318/.378/.577 against Houston, .380/.417/.727 at Minute Maid Park. This is not a joke. They also signed Chris Carter to a minor-league deal.
*FanRag's Jon Bernhardt talks about the various Spring Training tropes.
*Congratulations to the New York Yankees, 2018 Pre-Season BP Champions.
*Teams are beginning to use sleep study data to push back workout times to later in the day.
*A.J. Hinch gave the Astros pitchers and catchers a short workout day, and they pretty much took him up on it. Except for Ken Giles, who has apparently added muscle mass in an effort to build stamina for what is hopefully a long season:
I don't take light days. That's the thing with me. I don't like taking short break days. I always go out there with a mindset of getting something done. I set a goal for myself and I'm going to do it.
*Lance McCullers' most recent bullpen featured some tutorials with Justin Verlander. Verlander:
Spring training time, it's a time to have new ideas, tweak things. I'm trying to see some opportunities that I can help or impart some wisdom of a guy that's been around for a little while. Trying new things, hearing different opinions, that's how you get better.
*Verlander is relishing his role as mentor before he goes out and throws 31 Quality Starts in 2018.
*Brad Peacock is pretty pumped about his "unlimited" role in 2018. Peacock reflected on his personal World Series run (four appearances, 7.1IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:3BB) and how he was able to keep his emotions in check:
I felt fine. It's what you've been working for your entire life. It's what you dream about since you were a little kid. You've got to be ready for it. I just felt ready, I felt calm.
*You won't be able to get this Jose Altuve Funko Pop! figurine in stores until May.
*The Astros' Spring Training site buddy Washington Nationals, who have posted four 95+ win seasons in their last six and have not yet won a playoff series (they've lost in G5 of the NLDS in three of those four seasons), are a little salty about seeing the World Series Champion Houston Astros sign on the entrance to Spring Training. One Nationals player:
We should've been the team playing the Astros in that Series.
*Something weird happened at FanGraphs as they're now projecting the Astros to go 89-73, ten games behind the Yankees for the best record in baseball.
*The Angels signed Chris Young to come off the bench and probably hit 100 home runs off of the Astros. The dude has a career .746 OPS but has hit .318/.378/.577 against Houston, .380/.417/.727 at Minute Maid Park. This is not a joke. They also signed Chris Carter to a minor-league deal.
*FanRag's Jon Bernhardt talks about the various Spring Training tropes.
*Congratulations to the New York Yankees, 2018 Pre-Season BP Champions.
*Teams are beginning to use sleep study data to push back workout times to later in the day.
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Talking with Lance McCullers and your Tuesday Morning Hot Links
*Last night we recorded Episode 32 of Lima Time Time with special guest Lance McCullers. We talked Tal's Hill, 7th grade literature, hair products, and Rangers masturbating each other.
*The additions of Morton, McCann, and Reddick prior to the Winter Meetings means that Luhnow & Co. can focus on specifics in Washington next week. Luhnow:
It does make it a little easier in that we've already accomplished a couple of goals. When you go to the Winter Meetings and try to get everything done in three or four days, it can be pretty intense. If we can afford to go to the Winter Meetings focused on one or two complementary moves, that would be the best outcome for us.
*Jim Callis says that, with a little work on his command and his changeup, Francis Martes is ready for the big leagues.
*The saga, and fallout, of Jon Singleton.
*Minor-league catcher Roberto Pena has signed with the White Sox. The Astros' 7th Round draft pick in 2010 (and son of former Astros catcher Bert Pena) hit .237/.283/.342 in six seasons from the GCL to 15 games in Triple-A. Tyler Heineman and Garrett Stubbs are the highest-ranking catcher prospects in the organization now.
*26-year old RHP Nate Eovaldi has been released by the Yankees. Eovaldi, a Houston native, will be coming off Tommy John surgery as well as flexor tendon surgery. But with velocity increases over the past three seasons (up to 97.1mph in 2016 before needing surgery), a team will surely take a chance on him. Might that team be the Astros?
*Chris Carter and his 41 home runs in 2016 will not be tendered a contract by the Brewers.
*The additions of Morton, McCann, and Reddick prior to the Winter Meetings means that Luhnow & Co. can focus on specifics in Washington next week. Luhnow:
It does make it a little easier in that we've already accomplished a couple of goals. When you go to the Winter Meetings and try to get everything done in three or four days, it can be pretty intense. If we can afford to go to the Winter Meetings focused on one or two complementary moves, that would be the best outcome for us.
*Jim Callis says that, with a little work on his command and his changeup, Francis Martes is ready for the big leagues.
*The saga, and fallout, of Jon Singleton.
*Minor-league catcher Roberto Pena has signed with the White Sox. The Astros' 7th Round draft pick in 2010 (and son of former Astros catcher Bert Pena) hit .237/.283/.342 in six seasons from the GCL to 15 games in Triple-A. Tyler Heineman and Garrett Stubbs are the highest-ranking catcher prospects in the organization now.
*26-year old RHP Nate Eovaldi has been released by the Yankees. Eovaldi, a Houston native, will be coming off Tommy John surgery as well as flexor tendon surgery. But with velocity increases over the past three seasons (up to 97.1mph in 2016 before needing surgery), a team will surely take a chance on him. Might that team be the Astros?
*Chris Carter and his 41 home runs in 2016 will not be tendered a contract by the Brewers.
Monday, October 10, 2016
Monday Morning Hot Links
Little to no Astros content, but there are some links you may find interesting...
*Jeff Passan: "The Blue Jays didn't just dispose of the AL's best regular-season team, they ambushed it."
*Among other things, Rob Manfred said that MLB and the MLBPA are in discussions about the length of the season.
*Baseball Prospectus: Five Things You Didn't Know About 2016
*A statistical look at Chris Carter's 2016 season
*FanGraphs: Bad hitting is beating good pitching in the playoffs
*Hardball Times: Tommy John surgeries are trending down
Here it is: the greatest baseball advertisement of all time...
*Jeff Passan: "The Blue Jays didn't just dispose of the AL's best regular-season team, they ambushed it."
*Among other things, Rob Manfred said that MLB and the MLBPA are in discussions about the length of the season.
*Baseball Prospectus: Five Things You Didn't Know About 2016
*A statistical look at Chris Carter's 2016 season
*FanGraphs: Bad hitting is beating good pitching in the playoffs
*Hardball Times: Tommy John surgeries are trending down
Here it is: the greatest baseball advertisement of all time...
Thursday, January 7, 2016
Hall of Fame reset
I'll be honest, none of us were in much of a frame of mind to go in and write about Jeff Bagwell receiving 71.6% of the vote in the Hall of Fame's election which was announced yesterday for fear of descending into staggering vulgarity and possible threats against writers whose opinions did not match our own. I still feel that way, but I think I can rein it in this morning.
*I tried not to think about it, but it's pretty hard not to. My standard line right now is Junior was in a hot tub the entire day not worrying about anything because he knew he was going to get in. It's the other guys that were struggling.
*It's okay. It's my sixth time, it's not like it's my first. I know there's a process. I'll wait my time.
*You can blame mainly Boston, New York, and Chicago for Bagwell's non-election.
*The BBWAA is making progress where the 1990s are concerned, writes Brian T. Smith.
*Thibs' spreadsheet was the basis for 1,000 columns. If you want to shame writers, here's your database.
Non-HOF links:
*The David Stearns-led Brewers signed Chris Carter to a 1yr/$2.5m deal.
*Alex Bregman is looking to build on his strong second-half in 2017.
*You will soon be able to stream Astros games in China, but not in Texas.
*Roger Clemens and Roy Halladay got into a tiff yesterday.
In short: Screw everything. Life doesn't even matter. It's winter and Spring Training will never get here and the Writers are stupid and
*I tried not to think about it, but it's pretty hard not to. My standard line right now is Junior was in a hot tub the entire day not worrying about anything because he knew he was going to get in. It's the other guys that were struggling.
*It's okay. It's my sixth time, it's not like it's my first. I know there's a process. I'll wait my time.
*You can blame mainly Boston, New York, and Chicago for Bagwell's non-election.
*The BBWAA is making progress where the 1990s are concerned, writes Brian T. Smith.
#congratulations to Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey . Next year will be Bagwell's.
— Billy Wagner (@wagsk13wjs_e) January 7, 2016
*Thibs' spreadsheet was the basis for 1,000 columns. If you want to shame writers, here's your database.
Non-HOF links:
*The David Stearns-led Brewers signed Chris Carter to a 1yr/$2.5m deal.
*Alex Bregman is looking to build on his strong second-half in 2017.
*You will soon be able to stream Astros games in China, but not in Texas.
*Roger Clemens and Roy Halladay got into a tiff yesterday.
In short: Screw everything. Life doesn't even matter. It's winter and Spring Training will never get here and the Writers are stupid and
Friday, December 4, 2015
Friday Morning Hot Links
*Joel Sherman writes that the fates of players like Chris Carter are victims of the Steroid Era.
*Is that Max Stassi's music!?
*Here's Ben Lindbergh asking not why the Astros traded Hank Conger, but why the Rays traded for him.
*You want Jeff Samardzija? He's in the $90-100m price range.
*The Detroit News' Lynn Henning wants to vote for eleven players for the HOF (yes, Jeff Bagwell included). But the HOF will only let him vote for ten players. So Lynn Henning is not going to vote.
*The Pirates' GM said that his first mistake was bringing Pedro Alvarez to the Majors before he was ready.
*Is that Max Stassi's music!?
*Here's Ben Lindbergh asking not why the Astros traded Hank Conger, but why the Rays traded for him.
*You want Jeff Samardzija? He's in the $90-100m price range.
*The Detroit News' Lynn Henning wants to vote for eleven players for the HOF (yes, Jeff Bagwell included). But the HOF will only let him vote for ten players. So Lynn Henning is not going to vote.
*The Pirates' GM said that his first mistake was bringing Pedro Alvarez to the Majors before he was ready.
Thursday, December 3, 2015
Thursday Morning Hot Links
*The Masked Marvel has a good write-up on the departures of Carter and Conger. Carter's non-tendering was not surprising. For some reason I'm absolutely shocked by Conger's trade to Tampa Bay for cash. And isn't sentimentality something? In October's Exit Music post for Conger, I thought "good clubhouse guy who has some pop...would you want to mess with that?" And the Astros said, "Sure." Having never been in there, it would be impossible for me to speculate what impact his departure will have on the Astros' clubhouse. I suspect that there are enough Good Guys to handle it. But it doesn't change the fact that I have some sad.
*Carter had an idea that it would happen, but Conger is sad:
Everyone gets along. We had a great time. Coaching staff's awesome, I think that's why I was kind of a little shocked, a little sad to see myself get traded.
Just to recap: the Astros traded Jed Lowrie and Fernando Martinez for Carter, presumptive C2 Max Stassi, and Brad Peacock. The Astros traded Nick Tropeano and backup catcher Carlos Perez for Conger. Now Conger has been traded for cash and Carter was non-tendered.
*Your 40-Man roster is at 37.
*But hey: Keuchel, Castro, Gattis, Fields, Valbuena, and Marwin all got contracts.
*Reid Ryan is perfectly fine with the expectations that are placed on the club
Expectations are what we want. It's what our fans want, what our owner wants and nobody wants to not be contending year in and year out. We've been around this game long enough to know sometimes you've got to get lucky.
*The Astros hired their new athletic trainer from the Pirates, and boy, does he look excited.
*Marketplace reports that, yes, baseball player salaries have risen 60% in the last 12 years. But team revenues are up 120%.
*Carter had an idea that it would happen, but Conger is sad:
Everyone gets along. We had a great time. Coaching staff's awesome, I think that's why I was kind of a little shocked, a little sad to see myself get traded.
Just to recap: the Astros traded Jed Lowrie and Fernando Martinez for Carter, presumptive C2 Max Stassi, and Brad Peacock. The Astros traded Nick Tropeano and backup catcher Carlos Perez for Conger. Now Conger has been traded for cash and Carter was non-tendered.
*Your 40-Man roster is at 37.
*But hey: Keuchel, Castro, Gattis, Fields, Valbuena, and Marwin all got contracts.
*Reid Ryan is perfectly fine with the expectations that are placed on the club
Expectations are what we want. It's what our fans want, what our owner wants and nobody wants to not be contending year in and year out. We've been around this game long enough to know sometimes you've got to get lucky.
*The Astros hired their new athletic trainer from the Pirates, and boy, does he look excited.
*Marketplace reports that, yes, baseball player salaries have risen 60% in the last 12 years. But team revenues are up 120%.
Carter and Conger are the Next Casualties
So perhaps the Astros don't like me writing about them. Actually, I would be delighted if the Astros even knew I wrote about them, much less had an opinion as to whether said writing was likeable or not. I am getting this feeling because of their continued Stalin-like purge of my favourite Astros players. Today, Chris Carter and Hank Conger departed for other baseball destinations.
Most recently, Hank Conger was traded to the Rays, who have a history of liking reasonable offensive catchers. Coming back from Tampa in that trade was a young, unheralded prospect, Charlie Ash. Clearly, the Astros were unable to convince Tampa to take Carter and Conger in exchange for Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee - and I am sure that trade was discussed for, like, two milliseconds - so the Astros settled for freeing up a 40-man slot and a small amount of cash in exchange for Hammerin' Hank and his robot-like dancing.
Not totally sure what this means for the Astros. The logical move would be to assume that Max Stassi will be promoted in Hammerin' Hank's place. Seems like the most likely possibility, and at least that would create a proper lefty-righty platoon. Would you rule out Evan Gattis donning the Tools of Ignorance at some stage?? I probably would - a year off catching seems like a tough hurdle to overcome, and Gattis strikes me as a continued DH candidate, and little else. Tyler White behind the plate?? Perhaps, but again, highly unlikely - if he makes the team, it is as a corner infielder and DH I would think. Alfredo Gonzalez having a realistic chance of making the team out of Spring Training?? Perhaps this is the most likely of the unlikely scenarios. Re-acquire Carlos Corporan?? Who knows... but I am sure the Astros have some definitive idea of what they want to achieve here. I don't think Conger was an indispensable part of the World Series Astros.
(as an aside, it may pay to keep tabs on the Tyler Flowers market, but that is a post for another day)
Chris Carter is a different case. He was simply non-tendered a contract, which is something that Evan Drillich anticipated yesterday. Carter was predicted to have been paid a reasonable amount on his second trip through the arbitration process - about 5.5 million or so - so he having him around would have involved a significant financial commitment for the whole year. Carter is traditionally a slow starter, so giving him time to sort his stuff out prior to the estimated Super-Two deadline would probably not have worked this year, and you would still be on the hook for the whole 5.5-or-so million in the event that you wanted to cut him loose at that stage. That amount should involve a whole-season guarantee of a reasonable level of play from the perspective of the Astros.
The arbitration award process also seems to value traditional statistics somewhat, so Carter's home-run totals would have been responsible for most of any award for the predicated amount. This also means that his sometimes Mendoza-like average and his league-average (or slightly-below) OBP wouldn't have detracted from that award, and his issues around defence and baserunning certainly wouldn't have been considered. The Astros must have simply decided that the cost was too great, and the unused corner-infield resources elsewhere in the organisation were compelling enough to let him go for naught.
That said, Mark Trumbo (and a fellow Mariner) were just traded for peanuts (well, a lefty backup catcher who was also a non-tender candidate) to the Orioles. It seems that the market for RH one-dimensional sluggers is somewhat limited, and it is particularly limited when the other 29 teams sniff the possibility of a non-tender. So Carter's trade market was likely to be as flat as the Bonneville Salt Flats, but I am sure that Astros explored multiple options with many other clubs.
I liked both Carter and Conger, and am, again, sorry to see the both of them go. I have been writing statements like that a lot recently. I have always rooted for the underdog to some extent - which is why I have kept watching the Astros since, like, 2006 - and Carter and Conger both represented enthusiastic attempts by the Astros to build a legitimate major-league roster. At the stages of the rebuild that both were acquired, both were guys that were perhaps undervalued by their previous teams, and both had a chance to break out with improved playing time. So both Conger and Carter represented what the Astros were all about - at least to me - and if both did well, the Astros would be going places (in my mind).
During my trip to MMP earlier this year, I was sitting in a field-level seat in RF, talking to Curtis, the clubhouse attendant and RF ball-boy for the night. Curtis was probably horribly bored having to talk to a jet-lagged and half-drunk foreigner. Probably desperate to make conversation, he asked me who my favourite Astro was. My brain wasn't working all that well thanks to the 11-hour flight that I had just stepped off, and while I love Altuve and Springer, I kind of think that everyone loves them, and my schtick is biased toward rooting for the plucky underdog. Anyhow, I thought about it for, like, a minute, and murmured in reply that Chris Carter was probably my favourite current Astro. This was most likely on the basis that he nearly never shows frustration, and never-ever shows up the opposition. Perhaps a subtle bat-flip is all you will see from Chris Carter - something I also liked about Matt Dominguez - and you rarely see him look concerned as he heads back to the dugout after a strikeout. He strikes me as a very gentle, soft-spoken guy, and Curtis confirmed that this was the case when the media wasn't around.
Regardless, thinking that was a lame effort (and it was), I also added that Villar and Lowrie weren't too bad either in my books. Getting the picture?? Yikes, I am glad I didn't say anything about Keuchel or Handsome Jake (although he is being 'listened on' as well) else they would have been added to the Ex-Stros Roll of Honour. It seems I have the kiss of death when it comes to purging talent. Or perhaps I need to stop rooting for waiver-bait.
But this is the stage of the rebuild the Astros are at. No longer is 1.5-2.0 WAR good enough for fielding positions. This is the Correa and Altuve 5-WAR era, and you better play, or else you will become someone else's roster-filler. The Astros are all about ceiling in all 9 positions now, and they can't afford a bad half-year from someone like Chris Carter, who seems to heat up with the weather (or at least has done for the last couple of years). Carter didn't have the luxury to working into the season for the first couple of months, and the Astros weren't prepared to cut him loose and still owe him three-million at the Super-Two deadline. The two sides were never going to successfully get together over this one. But I am still a little sad about Carter's departure - even if most Astros fans aren't.
For now, I will leave you with my favourite Carter post of all time. As the Constable would say... good night, sweet prince.
Most recently, Hank Conger was traded to the Rays, who have a history of liking reasonable offensive catchers. Coming back from Tampa in that trade was a young, unheralded prospect, Charlie Ash. Clearly, the Astros were unable to convince Tampa to take Carter and Conger in exchange for Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee - and I am sure that trade was discussed for, like, two milliseconds - so the Astros settled for freeing up a 40-man slot and a small amount of cash in exchange for Hammerin' Hank and his robot-like dancing.
Not totally sure what this means for the Astros. The logical move would be to assume that Max Stassi will be promoted in Hammerin' Hank's place. Seems like the most likely possibility, and at least that would create a proper lefty-righty platoon. Would you rule out Evan Gattis donning the Tools of Ignorance at some stage?? I probably would - a year off catching seems like a tough hurdle to overcome, and Gattis strikes me as a continued DH candidate, and little else. Tyler White behind the plate?? Perhaps, but again, highly unlikely - if he makes the team, it is as a corner infielder and DH I would think. Alfredo Gonzalez having a realistic chance of making the team out of Spring Training?? Perhaps this is the most likely of the unlikely scenarios. Re-acquire Carlos Corporan?? Who knows... but I am sure the Astros have some definitive idea of what they want to achieve here. I don't think Conger was an indispensable part of the World Series Astros.
(as an aside, it may pay to keep tabs on the Tyler Flowers market, but that is a post for another day)
Chris Carter is a different case. He was simply non-tendered a contract, which is something that Evan Drillich anticipated yesterday. Carter was predicted to have been paid a reasonable amount on his second trip through the arbitration process - about 5.5 million or so - so he having him around would have involved a significant financial commitment for the whole year. Carter is traditionally a slow starter, so giving him time to sort his stuff out prior to the estimated Super-Two deadline would probably not have worked this year, and you would still be on the hook for the whole 5.5-or-so million in the event that you wanted to cut him loose at that stage. That amount should involve a whole-season guarantee of a reasonable level of play from the perspective of the Astros.
The arbitration award process also seems to value traditional statistics somewhat, so Carter's home-run totals would have been responsible for most of any award for the predicated amount. This also means that his sometimes Mendoza-like average and his league-average (or slightly-below) OBP wouldn't have detracted from that award, and his issues around defence and baserunning certainly wouldn't have been considered. The Astros must have simply decided that the cost was too great, and the unused corner-infield resources elsewhere in the organisation were compelling enough to let him go for naught.
That said, Mark Trumbo (and a fellow Mariner) were just traded for peanuts (well, a lefty backup catcher who was also a non-tender candidate) to the Orioles. It seems that the market for RH one-dimensional sluggers is somewhat limited, and it is particularly limited when the other 29 teams sniff the possibility of a non-tender. So Carter's trade market was likely to be as flat as the Bonneville Salt Flats, but I am sure that Astros explored multiple options with many other clubs.
I liked both Carter and Conger, and am, again, sorry to see the both of them go. I have been writing statements like that a lot recently. I have always rooted for the underdog to some extent - which is why I have kept watching the Astros since, like, 2006 - and Carter and Conger both represented enthusiastic attempts by the Astros to build a legitimate major-league roster. At the stages of the rebuild that both were acquired, both were guys that were perhaps undervalued by their previous teams, and both had a chance to break out with improved playing time. So both Conger and Carter represented what the Astros were all about - at least to me - and if both did well, the Astros would be going places (in my mind).
During my trip to MMP earlier this year, I was sitting in a field-level seat in RF, talking to Curtis, the clubhouse attendant and RF ball-boy for the night. Curtis was probably horribly bored having to talk to a jet-lagged and half-drunk foreigner. Probably desperate to make conversation, he asked me who my favourite Astro was. My brain wasn't working all that well thanks to the 11-hour flight that I had just stepped off, and while I love Altuve and Springer, I kind of think that everyone loves them, and my schtick is biased toward rooting for the plucky underdog. Anyhow, I thought about it for, like, a minute, and murmured in reply that Chris Carter was probably my favourite current Astro. This was most likely on the basis that he nearly never shows frustration, and never-ever shows up the opposition. Perhaps a subtle bat-flip is all you will see from Chris Carter - something I also liked about Matt Dominguez - and you rarely see him look concerned as he heads back to the dugout after a strikeout. He strikes me as a very gentle, soft-spoken guy, and Curtis confirmed that this was the case when the media wasn't around.
Regardless, thinking that was a lame effort (and it was), I also added that Villar and Lowrie weren't too bad either in my books. Getting the picture?? Yikes, I am glad I didn't say anything about Keuchel or Handsome Jake (although he is being 'listened on' as well) else they would have been added to the Ex-Stros Roll of Honour. It seems I have the kiss of death when it comes to purging talent. Or perhaps I need to stop rooting for waiver-bait.
But this is the stage of the rebuild the Astros are at. No longer is 1.5-2.0 WAR good enough for fielding positions. This is the Correa and Altuve 5-WAR era, and you better play, or else you will become someone else's roster-filler. The Astros are all about ceiling in all 9 positions now, and they can't afford a bad half-year from someone like Chris Carter, who seems to heat up with the weather (or at least has done for the last couple of years). Carter didn't have the luxury to working into the season for the first couple of months, and the Astros weren't prepared to cut him loose and still owe him three-million at the Super-Two deadline. The two sides were never going to successfully get together over this one. But I am still a little sad about Carter's departure - even if most Astros fans aren't.
For now, I will leave you with my favourite Carter post of all time. As the Constable would say... good night, sweet prince.
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Wednesday Morning Hot Links
So David Price just got a 7yr/$217m deal. Dallas Keuchel looks on from a leather chair and strokes his beard, knowingly...
*Tonight is the tender deadline, meaning that the Astros have until tonight to offer contracts to pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players for 2016, or to simply let them walk. Everyone who fits this set is expected back, but there is a question about Chris Carter, writes Evan Drellich. MLBTR predicts that Carter will receive $5.6m in arbitration.
*...But it won't be to Baltimore, who just traded for Seattle's Mark Trumbo.
*The Astros and Padres are planning exhibition games in Mexico City this spring.
*The Astros are expected to hire Alan Zinter's replacement soon.
*So I guess we can go ahead and assume the Astros will rejoin forces with Round Rock soon, as someone other than Jim Crane bought a 50% stake in the New Orleans Zephyrs. As early as 2013 it was rumored that Crane wanted to buy the team and move them to Montgomery County, and that interest was later confirmed. So now this news is most notable because the new Zephyrs owner seems intent on taking the team to Cuba, which is way cooler.
*I saw some light mockery of this on the Twotter yesterday, so take it for what it's worth, but FanGraphs released their Top 100 Prospects Projections (KATOH) list for 2016. There are five Astros on the list, and they are...
#21: A.J. Reed
#50: Alex Bregman
#51: Tyler Heineman
#72: Francis Martes
#76: Tyler White
*The Dodgers had to pay $44m in luxury tax.
*Here's a fascinating read from Vice Sports about the Mexican League ending their unwritten practice of blacklisting players who move to the United States before joining a Mexican League team.
*Tonight is the tender deadline, meaning that the Astros have until tonight to offer contracts to pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players for 2016, or to simply let them walk. Everyone who fits this set is expected back, but there is a question about Chris Carter, writes Evan Drellich. MLBTR predicts that Carter will receive $5.6m in arbitration.
*...But it won't be to Baltimore, who just traded for Seattle's Mark Trumbo.
*The Astros and Padres are planning exhibition games in Mexico City this spring.
*The Astros are expected to hire Alan Zinter's replacement soon.
*So I guess we can go ahead and assume the Astros will rejoin forces with Round Rock soon, as someone other than Jim Crane bought a 50% stake in the New Orleans Zephyrs. As early as 2013 it was rumored that Crane wanted to buy the team and move them to Montgomery County, and that interest was later confirmed. So now this news is most notable because the new Zephyrs owner seems intent on taking the team to Cuba, which is way cooler.
*I saw some light mockery of this on the Twotter yesterday, so take it for what it's worth, but FanGraphs released their Top 100 Prospects Projections (KATOH) list for 2016. There are five Astros on the list, and they are...
#21: A.J. Reed
#50: Alex Bregman
#51: Tyler Heineman
#72: Francis Martes
#76: Tyler White
*The Dodgers had to pay $44m in luxury tax.
*Here's a fascinating read from Vice Sports about the Mexican League ending their unwritten practice of blacklisting players who move to the United States before joining a Mexican League team.
Tuesday, December 1, 2015
Two Astros "available"
Jerry Crasnick tweeted a couple of nuggets fairly close together indicating that there are players on the Astros' 40-Man roster who may have been made available:
Carter is pretty much a DH-only option (with A.J. Reed waiting in the wings). Marisnick is one outfielder on a team with of a lot of outfielders. Neither of these names are terribly surprising, but it's notable...
The #Astros are shopping Chris Carter in advance of tender deadline, sources say. They're focusing on AL clubs.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 1, 2015
#Astros are willing to listen on Jake Marisnick in the right deal, says source. Add him to list of available young outfielders.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 1, 2015
Carter is pretty much a DH-only option (with A.J. Reed waiting in the wings). Marisnick is one outfielder on a team with of a lot of outfielders. Neither of these names are terribly surprising, but it's notable...
Monday, October 19, 2015
Monday Morning Hot Links
Getcher hawt linx heah:
*Evan Drellich writes that the Astros' window of opportunity is "by no means a given."
Luhnow:
Our young players are going to continue to come through the system, and we have some assets. We've got some benefits, some advantages that other clubs maybe don't have. We've got one of the top farm systems in baseball still while having a young team at the major league level that's already competing. That's the ideal situation. Now, we want to maintain that for a long time to come.
But with injuries and player regression, automatically thinking the Astros will compete next year like they did this year is taking too much for granted.
*Bench coach Trey Hillman is apparently a leading candidate to manage the Yokohama BayStars in Japan in 2016. He says he hasn't been contacted, but wouldn't outright say no. The Astros picked up Hillman's option for 2016 and would have to grant him permission to interview.
*Anthony Castrovince writes a recap for Sports On Earth on the ousted playoff teams and their outlook for 2016.
Tomorrow is guaranteed to none of us, much less a baseball team. But the Astros always had the feel of a team ahead of schedule, thereby making anything that transpired in this 2015 postseason gravy.
*Luis Valbuena's tag of Terrance Gore in Game 4 is the set-piece for What's Wrong With Instant Replay. Hinch:
In some ways, it feels like you're getting a speeding ticket for going 60 in a 55. But by the letter of the law, that's how it's played, and until they change the rule, we're obviously going to play that way.
*Nick Cafardo's Sunday notes column includes:
-Chris Davis could be a fit for the Astros (I doubt it)
-"The Astros will search for a veteran presence in their lineup this offseason"
-According to "one major league source," the Astros could dangle Chris Carter as trade bait.
*Evan Drellich writes that the Astros' window of opportunity is "by no means a given."
Luhnow:
Our young players are going to continue to come through the system, and we have some assets. We've got some benefits, some advantages that other clubs maybe don't have. We've got one of the top farm systems in baseball still while having a young team at the major league level that's already competing. That's the ideal situation. Now, we want to maintain that for a long time to come.
But with injuries and player regression, automatically thinking the Astros will compete next year like they did this year is taking too much for granted.
*Bench coach Trey Hillman is apparently a leading candidate to manage the Yokohama BayStars in Japan in 2016. He says he hasn't been contacted, but wouldn't outright say no. The Astros picked up Hillman's option for 2016 and would have to grant him permission to interview.
*Anthony Castrovince writes a recap for Sports On Earth on the ousted playoff teams and their outlook for 2016.
Tomorrow is guaranteed to none of us, much less a baseball team. But the Astros always had the feel of a team ahead of schedule, thereby making anything that transpired in this 2015 postseason gravy.
*Luis Valbuena's tag of Terrance Gore in Game 4 is the set-piece for What's Wrong With Instant Replay. Hinch:
In some ways, it feels like you're getting a speeding ticket for going 60 in a 55. But by the letter of the law, that's how it's played, and until they change the rule, we're obviously going to play that way.
*Nick Cafardo's Sunday notes column includes:
-Chris Davis could be a fit for the Astros (I doubt it)
-"The Astros will search for a veteran presence in their lineup this offseason"
-According to "one major league source," the Astros could dangle Chris Carter as trade bait.
Sunday, October 18, 2015
Exit Music (For A Player): Chris Carter
Hey, the wounds are still fresh, so it seems like a fine time to do some evaluating. This is the Exit Music (For A Player) series. Check out other Exit Music (For A Player) posts here.
Acquired:
Acquired via trade from Oakland on February 4, 2013 with Brad Peacock and Max Stassi for Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez.
Age: Carter will be 29 in December
Contract Status:
2015: $4,180,000 (arbitration)
2016: Arbitration-eligible
Carter won't be a free agent until 2019.
Career:
I did not realize that Chris Carter had been involved in so many transactions. He was a 15th Round draft pick by the White Sox in 2005, then traded to Arizona for Carlos Quentin on December 3, 2007. Eleven days later he was traded with Brett Anderson and four other players to the A's for Dan Haren and Connor Robertson. On February 4, 2013 Carter was traded to the Astros with Brad Peacock and Max Stassi for Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez.
All along, everyone knew what Chris Carter was about: Lots of power, lots of strikeouts. Whomever could figure out a way to stop the latter while keeping the former would be in for a treat. Prior to the 2010 season, Carter was Baseball America's #28 prospect, and BP's #11 prospect. Finding a mix between the power and the strikeouts hasn't exactly happened yet - he has both in bunches.
In the minors, Carter racked up 826 games/3647 plate appearances, hitting .283/.378/.535 with 857K:442BB - a strikeout in every 23.5% of his plate appearances, but 46.2% of his hits were for extra bases.
In 528 Major League games (2001 plate appearances), Carter has hit .217/.312/.452 with 669K:231BB - a strikeout in every 33.4% of his plate appearances, but almost half of his hits (49.6%) are for extra bases. It's a conundrum.
When he came to Houston, Carter had logged just 384 plate appearances in 106 games for Oakland across three seasons, hitting .214/.310/.425 with 124 strikeouts and 19 home runs. So far in Houston, Carter has managed to hit .218/.312/.459, but it has been a hard-fought road for him.
In 2013, Carter struck out a league-leading 212 times in just 585 plate appearances. He cut those strikeouts by 30 going into 2014, but it took him a while to get started. In the 1st half of 2014, Carter hit .205/.281/.465 with 99 strikeouts and 19 home runs on a .237 BABIP (but let's be honest, he wasn't putting the ball in play all that much with almost 100 strikeouts by the All-Star Break). Then something clicked. Carter hit .252/.338/.521 with 83 strikeouts and 18 home runs in 63 starts after the 2014 All-Star Break.
Maybe, we thought, if 2nd-Half Carter could show up for the entire season in 2015, the Astros would really have something.
2015:
That Carter did show up, but not until September. Carter didn't get above the Mendoza Line until June 3, when he blasted two homers in a 3-1 win against Baltimore. He was back underneath .200 on June 7, flirted with it for a while before bottoming out at .179/.292/.368 following the August 26 win at New York. Hinch just stopped putting him in the lineup. He played in just eight complete games in August, getting subbed out or put in as a pinch-hitter. Carter had an 82 wRC+ (100 is average).
Then Magic happened. Carter's ABs in September became Stop What You're Doing And Pay Attention events. In his last 20 games of the regular season - starting with the game following that August 26 game - Carter hit .333/.414/.824 with seven home runs and four doubles in 59 plate appearances. He struck out 16 times, but whatever - he almost virtually carried the Astros' offense into the postseason. Six of his homers came in the final two weeks of the season, all of them came within a 2-run margin, two of them put the Astros ahead, and one of them - his final homer of the regular season - was a three-run blast at Seattle on September 30 to tie the game in the 6th, a game the Astros would later win.
What happened? He had trouble hitting basically every pitch up until the end of August. He hit .142 against four-seam fastballs, .154 against sinkers, .194 against sliders, .194 against curves. The only pitch he didn't have "much" trouble with was a changeup, where he hit .242 - and he didn't see many of those pitches as a result.
Then, beginning with that August 28 game, it clicked. He hit .294 against four-seam fastballs, .500 against sinkers, .600 against the curve, two of his seven homers to close the season came on sliders - he had hit three homers on sliders all season long to that point. His wRC+ from August 27-end of season was 233. It's only a five-week stretch for Carter, but it's worth pointing out that Barry Bonds' wRC+ in 2001 - when he hit 73 home runs - was 235. That five week stretch of Carter was like watching Bonds put up one of the most historic seasons in baseball history.*
(*Caveat: I'm not dumb enough to compare Carter to Barry Bonds. I'm trying to say that for five weeks, Carter played at a very high level. It does not erase the previous 22 weeks of the season, it's just an observation.)
Carter is the type of player that makes me happy I'm not a general manager. I flip-flop on what to do with Carter by the hour. The Astros rode Carter through July hoping that he would show up, and there was absolutely no guarantee that he would. This makes it that much more difficult to guess what place he has on the 2016 team. Do you write off September as a fluke? Too little too late? Or do you run the risk of just letting him go - with three years of team control left - and hoping that he doesn't put it together for, say, Seattle, and hit 100 homers a year?
Franchise Marks:
*In 2014, Carter became the 6th Astro to hit 37+ homers in a season (Bagwell - six times; Berkman - twice; Richard Hidalgo, Moises Alou, and Jimmy Wynn are your others).
*Chris Carter holds 1st and 2nd place in franchise K% rate with 36.2% and 31.8% in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
Challengers:
This is the question mark. Down on the farm you already have Jon Singleton and A.J. Reed who have shown an ability to hit in the minors.
Jon Singleton signed maybe the most famous contract in franchise history, a 5yr/$10m deal before he had even seen a Major-League pitch. It hasn't quite worked out for him. In 2014, he hit .168/.285/.335, striking out in 37% of his plate appearances in 95 games. He only saw 19 games in Houston, and he hit .191/.328/.298. All in all, Singleton has only played in 114 games with 420 plate appearances, so it's far too early to write him off, but already Jon Heyman is talking about him possibly needing a change of scenery. As The Batguy told me recently, he wants to see what Singleton can do when he's not expected to carry the offense.
A.J. Reed. This dude, man... The Astros' 2nd Round draft pick in the 2014 draft, you know, the one after Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix, Reed came in to the organization from the University of Kentucky as a highly touted hitter and pitcher - winning Baseball America's College Player of the Year for 2014. In 2015 Reed hit .346/.449/.638 for Lancaster before the Astros decided enough was enough and moved him to Corpus after 82 games. In 53 games for the Hooks, Reed hit .332/.405/.571. His BABIP was .385 for the JetHawks and .383 for the Hooks. It's fun to dream about a kid like Reed: he'll be 23 in May, a lefty hitter, and plays 1B/DH. But he still only has 237 PAs above Single-A. So let's slow down on Reed a little bit. He could make the team out of Spring Training, but with Carter, Singleton, and Gattis theoretically on the roster, one or two of those dudes will need to go before we see Reed. And I know what you're thinking: Lance McCullers, Vince Velasquez, and Jose Altuve didn't need time at Triple-A (! you scream). And I don't know, sure, you're right. Feel good about yourself now?
Reads:
Oh no, not more words about Chris Carter (August 2015)
Let the piling on commence (February 2013)
Acquired:
Acquired via trade from Oakland on February 4, 2013 with Brad Peacock and Max Stassi for Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez.
Age: Carter will be 29 in December
Contract Status:
2015: $4,180,000 (arbitration)
2016: Arbitration-eligible
Carter won't be a free agent until 2019.
Career:
I did not realize that Chris Carter had been involved in so many transactions. He was a 15th Round draft pick by the White Sox in 2005, then traded to Arizona for Carlos Quentin on December 3, 2007. Eleven days later he was traded with Brett Anderson and four other players to the A's for Dan Haren and Connor Robertson. On February 4, 2013 Carter was traded to the Astros with Brad Peacock and Max Stassi for Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez.
All along, everyone knew what Chris Carter was about: Lots of power, lots of strikeouts. Whomever could figure out a way to stop the latter while keeping the former would be in for a treat. Prior to the 2010 season, Carter was Baseball America's #28 prospect, and BP's #11 prospect. Finding a mix between the power and the strikeouts hasn't exactly happened yet - he has both in bunches.
In the minors, Carter racked up 826 games/3647 plate appearances, hitting .283/.378/.535 with 857K:442BB - a strikeout in every 23.5% of his plate appearances, but 46.2% of his hits were for extra bases.
In 528 Major League games (2001 plate appearances), Carter has hit .217/.312/.452 with 669K:231BB - a strikeout in every 33.4% of his plate appearances, but almost half of his hits (49.6%) are for extra bases. It's a conundrum.
When he came to Houston, Carter had logged just 384 plate appearances in 106 games for Oakland across three seasons, hitting .214/.310/.425 with 124 strikeouts and 19 home runs. So far in Houston, Carter has managed to hit .218/.312/.459, but it has been a hard-fought road for him.
In 2013, Carter struck out a league-leading 212 times in just 585 plate appearances. He cut those strikeouts by 30 going into 2014, but it took him a while to get started. In the 1st half of 2014, Carter hit .205/.281/.465 with 99 strikeouts and 19 home runs on a .237 BABIP (but let's be honest, he wasn't putting the ball in play all that much with almost 100 strikeouts by the All-Star Break). Then something clicked. Carter hit .252/.338/.521 with 83 strikeouts and 18 home runs in 63 starts after the 2014 All-Star Break.
Maybe, we thought, if 2nd-Half Carter could show up for the entire season in 2015, the Astros would really have something.
2015:
That Carter did show up, but not until September. Carter didn't get above the Mendoza Line until June 3, when he blasted two homers in a 3-1 win against Baltimore. He was back underneath .200 on June 7, flirted with it for a while before bottoming out at .179/.292/.368 following the August 26 win at New York. Hinch just stopped putting him in the lineup. He played in just eight complete games in August, getting subbed out or put in as a pinch-hitter. Carter had an 82 wRC+ (100 is average).
Then Magic happened. Carter's ABs in September became Stop What You're Doing And Pay Attention events. In his last 20 games of the regular season - starting with the game following that August 26 game - Carter hit .333/.414/.824 with seven home runs and four doubles in 59 plate appearances. He struck out 16 times, but whatever - he almost virtually carried the Astros' offense into the postseason. Six of his homers came in the final two weeks of the season, all of them came within a 2-run margin, two of them put the Astros ahead, and one of them - his final homer of the regular season - was a three-run blast at Seattle on September 30 to tie the game in the 6th, a game the Astros would later win.
What happened? He had trouble hitting basically every pitch up until the end of August. He hit .142 against four-seam fastballs, .154 against sinkers, .194 against sliders, .194 against curves. The only pitch he didn't have "much" trouble with was a changeup, where he hit .242 - and he didn't see many of those pitches as a result.
Then, beginning with that August 28 game, it clicked. He hit .294 against four-seam fastballs, .500 against sinkers, .600 against the curve, two of his seven homers to close the season came on sliders - he had hit three homers on sliders all season long to that point. His wRC+ from August 27-end of season was 233. It's only a five-week stretch for Carter, but it's worth pointing out that Barry Bonds' wRC+ in 2001 - when he hit 73 home runs - was 235. That five week stretch of Carter was like watching Bonds put up one of the most historic seasons in baseball history.*
(*Caveat: I'm not dumb enough to compare Carter to Barry Bonds. I'm trying to say that for five weeks, Carter played at a very high level. It does not erase the previous 22 weeks of the season, it's just an observation.)
Carter is the type of player that makes me happy I'm not a general manager. I flip-flop on what to do with Carter by the hour. The Astros rode Carter through July hoping that he would show up, and there was absolutely no guarantee that he would. This makes it that much more difficult to guess what place he has on the 2016 team. Do you write off September as a fluke? Too little too late? Or do you run the risk of just letting him go - with three years of team control left - and hoping that he doesn't put it together for, say, Seattle, and hit 100 homers a year?
Franchise Marks:
*In 2014, Carter became the 6th Astro to hit 37+ homers in a season (Bagwell - six times; Berkman - twice; Richard Hidalgo, Moises Alou, and Jimmy Wynn are your others).
*Chris Carter holds 1st and 2nd place in franchise K% rate with 36.2% and 31.8% in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
Challengers:
This is the question mark. Down on the farm you already have Jon Singleton and A.J. Reed who have shown an ability to hit in the minors.
Jon Singleton signed maybe the most famous contract in franchise history, a 5yr/$10m deal before he had even seen a Major-League pitch. It hasn't quite worked out for him. In 2014, he hit .168/.285/.335, striking out in 37% of his plate appearances in 95 games. He only saw 19 games in Houston, and he hit .191/.328/.298. All in all, Singleton has only played in 114 games with 420 plate appearances, so it's far too early to write him off, but already Jon Heyman is talking about him possibly needing a change of scenery. As The Batguy told me recently, he wants to see what Singleton can do when he's not expected to carry the offense.
A.J. Reed. This dude, man... The Astros' 2nd Round draft pick in the 2014 draft, you know, the one after Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix, Reed came in to the organization from the University of Kentucky as a highly touted hitter and pitcher - winning Baseball America's College Player of the Year for 2014. In 2015 Reed hit .346/.449/.638 for Lancaster before the Astros decided enough was enough and moved him to Corpus after 82 games. In 53 games for the Hooks, Reed hit .332/.405/.571. His BABIP was .385 for the JetHawks and .383 for the Hooks. It's fun to dream about a kid like Reed: he'll be 23 in May, a lefty hitter, and plays 1B/DH. But he still only has 237 PAs above Single-A. So let's slow down on Reed a little bit. He could make the team out of Spring Training, but with Carter, Singleton, and Gattis theoretically on the roster, one or two of those dudes will need to go before we see Reed. And I know what you're thinking: Lance McCullers, Vince Velasquez, and Jose Altuve didn't need time at Triple-A (! you scream). And I don't know, sure, you're right. Feel good about yourself now?
Reads:
Oh no, not more words about Chris Carter (August 2015)
Let the piling on commence (February 2013)
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
Arbitration Projections Are Out
MLBTR has posted their arbitration projections. We'll come back to this in the off-season, but at least it provides something to think about other than the overwhelming nausea we collectively feel over the Wild Card game.
Here's what MLBTR's figures project:
Keuchel: $6.4m
Valbuena: $5.8m
Carter: $5.6m
Castro: $4.6m
Gattis: $3.4m
Marwin: $1.9m
Conger: $1.8m
Fields: $800,000
Deduno: $700,000
Keuchel's a slam dunk. What say you on the others?
Here's what MLBTR's figures project:
Keuchel: $6.4m
Valbuena: $5.8m
Carter: $5.6m
Castro: $4.6m
Gattis: $3.4m
Marwin: $1.9m
Conger: $1.8m
Fields: $800,000
Deduno: $700,000
Keuchel's a slam dunk. What say you on the others?
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Tuesday Morning Reset
Well well well. The end-of-season road trip got off to a good start thanks to some HOMERZ and Lance McCullers as the Astros beat the Mariners 3-2 (what's this!? a 1-run road win?! Nonsense!).
The Tigers beat the Rangers, but the Angels won their sixth straight game on a walk-off single from David Murphy off of former Astro Fernando Abad, and the Twins beat the Indians. So here we are:
AL West
Rangers: -
Astros: -1.5
Angels: -2.0
2nd AL Wild Card
Astros: -
Angels: -0.5
Twins: -1.5
FanGraphs gives the Astros an 18.9% chance of winning the division and a 71.8% chance of at least holding on to the Wild Card. But they're going to need the Angels to actually start losing games.
The Astros have won three straight while the Rangers have lost three straight. Hank Conger, on the Astros closing the gap on Arlington.
If (the Rangers) can do it, so can we.
A.J. Hinch is focused on making the playoffs, not shuffling the rotation in an effort to get the best matchup. With Dallas Keuchel expected to pitch on Friday and Collin McHugh on Saturday, it would allow Keuchel to pitch the Wild Card game - on Tuesday, October 6 - on three days' rest instead of the usual four, writes Evan Drellich. If the Astros win the Wild Card game or win the AL West, the ALDS would start on Thursday, October 8.
The Astros have five games remaining.
Astros @ Seattle
*McCullers threw 6IP, 4H/2ER, 7K:2BB, sitting 96-97 and touching 98 with his fastball. Since the disaster start at Arlington back in August and subsequent demotion, McCullers has made seven starts, throwing 44IP, 35H/16ER, 44K:13BB.
*Since returning from the DL with a broken wrist thanks to Rat Bastard Edinson Volquez, George Springer is hitting .261/.333/.398 and hit his 2nd homer last night. He has hits in 17 of the 22 games in which he has played, and four multi-hit games in his last seven.
Springer was hitting .264/.365/.457 before the wrist injury.
*Evan Gattis was 1x3 with a solo homer and a walk. In the 31 games he's played since the beginning of the Yankees series (arbitrary? kinda/maybe not) Gattis is hitting .282/.338/.538 with eight home runs, 21K:11BB. Up until that series at Yankee Stadium, Gattis was hitting .236/.267/.442
*Chris Carter hit his 23rd home run of the season in the 7th to break a 2-2 tie. Five of his last seven hits have been home runs and have all come in the last ten days.
Mariners reliever Danny Farquhar left a first-pitch breaking ball over the plate and Carter hit it to where those guys throw the fish. Farquhar:
It was a good idea. The execution was there. Ideally you want that to be down and away and it was more down and in. He put a good swing on it and kept it fair. It was the right pitch.
Farquhar and McClendon talked about how Carter doesn't usually swing at the first pitch, and they're right. But when he does (44 Plate Appearances in 2015), he has a .262/.273/.452 slash line which, for a guy hitting under .200 for an entire season is actually pretty good.
Of Carter's 108 career home runs, 32 have been go-ahead homers.
Other Links
*The Astros are simply "hopeful" that Carlos Gomez can return to the team this season. Hinch:
He's swung in batting practice every day, looking better and better. Just not quite himself yet.
*Evan Drellich says Jon Singleton's $10m contract has worked out pretty well for him. Not so much for the Astros.
*Matthew McConaughey wants to see a Rangers/Astros ALCS.
The Tigers beat the Rangers, but the Angels won their sixth straight game on a walk-off single from David Murphy off of former Astro Fernando Abad, and the Twins beat the Indians. So here we are:
AL West
Rangers: -
Astros: -1.5
Angels: -2.0
2nd AL Wild Card
Astros: -
Angels: -0.5
Twins: -1.5
FanGraphs gives the Astros an 18.9% chance of winning the division and a 71.8% chance of at least holding on to the Wild Card. But they're going to need the Angels to actually start losing games.
The Astros have won three straight while the Rangers have lost three straight. Hank Conger, on the Astros closing the gap on Arlington.
If (the Rangers) can do it, so can we.
A.J. Hinch is focused on making the playoffs, not shuffling the rotation in an effort to get the best matchup. With Dallas Keuchel expected to pitch on Friday and Collin McHugh on Saturday, it would allow Keuchel to pitch the Wild Card game - on Tuesday, October 6 - on three days' rest instead of the usual four, writes Evan Drellich. If the Astros win the Wild Card game or win the AL West, the ALDS would start on Thursday, October 8.
The Astros have five games remaining.
Astros @ Seattle
*McCullers threw 6IP, 4H/2ER, 7K:2BB, sitting 96-97 and touching 98 with his fastball. Since the disaster start at Arlington back in August and subsequent demotion, McCullers has made seven starts, throwing 44IP, 35H/16ER, 44K:13BB.
*Since returning from the DL with a broken wrist thanks to Rat Bastard Edinson Volquez, George Springer is hitting .261/.333/.398 and hit his 2nd homer last night. He has hits in 17 of the 22 games in which he has played, and four multi-hit games in his last seven.
Springer was hitting .264/.365/.457 before the wrist injury.
*Evan Gattis was 1x3 with a solo homer and a walk. In the 31 games he's played since the beginning of the Yankees series (arbitrary? kinda/maybe not) Gattis is hitting .282/.338/.538 with eight home runs, 21K:11BB. Up until that series at Yankee Stadium, Gattis was hitting .236/.267/.442
*Chris Carter hit his 23rd home run of the season in the 7th to break a 2-2 tie. Five of his last seven hits have been home runs and have all come in the last ten days.
Mariners reliever Danny Farquhar left a first-pitch breaking ball over the plate and Carter hit it to where those guys throw the fish. Farquhar:
It was a good idea. The execution was there. Ideally you want that to be down and away and it was more down and in. He put a good swing on it and kept it fair. It was the right pitch.
Farquhar and McClendon talked about how Carter doesn't usually swing at the first pitch, and they're right. But when he does (44 Plate Appearances in 2015), he has a .262/.273/.452 slash line which, for a guy hitting under .200 for an entire season is actually pretty good.
Of Carter's 108 career home runs, 32 have been go-ahead homers.
Other Links
*The Astros are simply "hopeful" that Carlos Gomez can return to the team this season. Hinch:
He's swung in batting practice every day, looking better and better. Just not quite himself yet.
*Evan Drellich says Jon Singleton's $10m contract has worked out pretty well for him. Not so much for the Astros.
*Matthew McConaughey wants to see a Rangers/Astros ALCS.
Monday, September 28, 2015
Monday Morning Reset
A weekend series with the Rangers where the Astros absolutely had to win at least two out of three resulted in exactly that, and so the Astros finish the crucial nine-game home stand with a 5-4 record. Not great, but maybe good enough to hold on to the 2nd Wild Card spot.
More on yesterday's Astros game in a second, but the Angels beat the Mariners and the Twins beat the Tigers. So the race is as such:
Rangers: -
Astros: -2.5
Astros: -
Angels: -0.5
Twins: -1.5
The Rangers host the Tigers, the Angels host the A's, and Minnesota goes to Cleveland. There are six games remaining in the season.
The Astros finished the season with a 53-28 home record, tying the 2005 Astros for best home record in the Minute Maid Park era. Reminder that the 2013 Astros won 51 games at home and on the road, combined.
The Astros beat the Rangers 4-2 behind Dallas Keuchel's gem, in which he set a Major League record for most wins at home without a loss (15-0). He also set a franchise record for most strikeouts in a single season by a lefty. Keuchel downplayed those accomplishments:
It's definitely nice because nobody likes to lose. It doesn't matter if it's professional ranks or college, nobody really likes to lose. We've done a lot of that these last couple of years. The turnaround has been nice. Guys are playing with more confidence; guys are maturing; guys are growing, and that is fun to see.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield wonders if Keuchel had the greatest home season of all time.
*Chris Carter is picking a strange time to go insane. Maybe it's that he relaxed when everybody just expected him to either sit on the bench for the rest of the season or strike out if he didn't, but over the past month Carter has played in nine games, getting 35 plate appearances. In those plate appearances, Carter is hitting - wait for it - .367/.457/.933 - a 1.390 OPS. Four of his last six hits have been home runs. Looking forward to writing the "What the heck do we do about Chris Carter" post this offseason, whenever that comes.
Hinch, on Carter:
It's easy to look at his season as a whole and poke holes in it. But when you look at the last four to six weeks, he has played pretty well, and he's been very big for us.
*Carlos Gomez scored a run yesterday and Hinch hopes to get him back in the lineup early on in this upcoming series against the Mariners, but it's doubtful that Gomez will be 100% before Spring Training 2016.
*This Dallas guy would like to point out the very obvious fact that the Astros should be more concerned about the Angels than the Rangers.
*Despite nagging injuries to Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano, Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon vowed to put his best lineup on the field. That doesn't include pitchers James Paxton and Taijuan Walker.
More on yesterday's Astros game in a second, but the Angels beat the Mariners and the Twins beat the Tigers. So the race is as such:
Rangers: -
Astros: -2.5
Astros: -
Angels: -0.5
Twins: -1.5
The Rangers host the Tigers, the Angels host the A's, and Minnesota goes to Cleveland. There are six games remaining in the season.
The Astros finished the season with a 53-28 home record, tying the 2005 Astros for best home record in the Minute Maid Park era. Reminder that the 2013 Astros won 51 games at home and on the road, combined.
The Astros beat the Rangers 4-2 behind Dallas Keuchel's gem, in which he set a Major League record for most wins at home without a loss (15-0). He also set a franchise record for most strikeouts in a single season by a lefty. Keuchel downplayed those accomplishments:
It's definitely nice because nobody likes to lose. It doesn't matter if it's professional ranks or college, nobody really likes to lose. We've done a lot of that these last couple of years. The turnaround has been nice. Guys are playing with more confidence; guys are maturing; guys are growing, and that is fun to see.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield wonders if Keuchel had the greatest home season of all time.
*Chris Carter is picking a strange time to go insane. Maybe it's that he relaxed when everybody just expected him to either sit on the bench for the rest of the season or strike out if he didn't, but over the past month Carter has played in nine games, getting 35 plate appearances. In those plate appearances, Carter is hitting - wait for it - .367/.457/.933 - a 1.390 OPS. Four of his last six hits have been home runs. Looking forward to writing the "What the heck do we do about Chris Carter" post this offseason, whenever that comes.
Hinch, on Carter:
It's easy to look at his season as a whole and poke holes in it. But when you look at the last four to six weeks, he has played pretty well, and he's been very big for us.
*Carlos Gomez scored a run yesterday and Hinch hopes to get him back in the lineup early on in this upcoming series against the Mariners, but it's doubtful that Gomez will be 100% before Spring Training 2016.
*This Dallas guy would like to point out the very obvious fact that the Astros should be more concerned about the Angels than the Rangers.
*Despite nagging injuries to Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano, Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon vowed to put his best lineup on the field. That doesn't include pitchers James Paxton and Taijuan Walker.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
Oh no, not more words about Chris Carter
Ah, Chris Carter. One of the most polarizing Astros players. Some fans have wanted to team to eat all $4M of his 2015 contract from the day he signed it. Others wanted a statue built tolerated his presence because they believed he wasn't completely useless. I was in the second group to start the season. Fans that can look beyond batting average could point to his wRC+ and understood that, even with his glaring flaws, he was still an above average major league hitter. Every one agreed he could be extremely streaky, but not everyone agreed that the good balanced out the bad.
But that was before the 2015 season. We're now 2/3 of the way through the season, and good CC still hasn't shown up. And I don't think he will. Not this year. Maybe not ever again.
So I wondered what had changed so much. What took him from a flawed but generally productive hitter to a flawed and generally unproductive hitter? Surprisingly, it seems that by trying to fix Carter, he ended up even more broken.
You see, Carter has always been a pull-happy fastball hitter with very impressive power who was prone to swing and miss and had particular trouble with breaking balls. His first two seasons with Houston he pulled the ball about 50% of the time, 30% up the middle, and 20% oppo. His strikeout rates were 36% and 32%. According to PITCHf/x values he averaged about 6 runs above average on fastballs, but 5 runs below average on sliders.
Conventional wisdom said that Carter needed to learn to hit more up the middle and opposite field, work into more fastball counts, and lay off pitches he knows he can't hit. And he's done exactly that! He's been spraying the ball to all fields. He's pulling the ball just 38% of the time in 2015, 36% up the middle, and 26% to right. He's seen his percentage of fastballs go up almost 4%, while his slider and curveball percentages are both down 2% to 2.5%. And he's drastically cut down on his swings on pitches outside the zone, cutting it from 29% last season to 24% this season.
But now he's below average against the fastball, while surprisingly a bit above average on sliders. His percentage of soft contact is down slightly, but his hard contact rate is down considerably. He's hitting fewer infield popups, but his HR/FB rate is the lowest of his career.
All of this suggests to me that in an effort to make Chris Carter a more well rounded hitter, the one thing he was really good at has disappeared. Carter's entire value was tied to his ability to knock the snot out of the ball better than nearly every other player in baseball, overlooked though that value may be. Without that, there's no reason for him to have a place on the roster.
But that was before the 2015 season. We're now 2/3 of the way through the season, and good CC still hasn't shown up. And I don't think he will. Not this year. Maybe not ever again.
So I wondered what had changed so much. What took him from a flawed but generally productive hitter to a flawed and generally unproductive hitter? Surprisingly, it seems that by trying to fix Carter, he ended up even more broken.
You see, Carter has always been a pull-happy fastball hitter with very impressive power who was prone to swing and miss and had particular trouble with breaking balls. His first two seasons with Houston he pulled the ball about 50% of the time, 30% up the middle, and 20% oppo. His strikeout rates were 36% and 32%. According to PITCHf/x values he averaged about 6 runs above average on fastballs, but 5 runs below average on sliders.
Conventional wisdom said that Carter needed to learn to hit more up the middle and opposite field, work into more fastball counts, and lay off pitches he knows he can't hit. And he's done exactly that! He's been spraying the ball to all fields. He's pulling the ball just 38% of the time in 2015, 36% up the middle, and 26% to right. He's seen his percentage of fastballs go up almost 4%, while his slider and curveball percentages are both down 2% to 2.5%. And he's drastically cut down on his swings on pitches outside the zone, cutting it from 29% last season to 24% this season.
But now he's below average against the fastball, while surprisingly a bit above average on sliders. His percentage of soft contact is down slightly, but his hard contact rate is down considerably. He's hitting fewer infield popups, but his HR/FB rate is the lowest of his career.
All of this suggests to me that in an effort to make Chris Carter a more well rounded hitter, the one thing he was really good at has disappeared. Carter's entire value was tied to his ability to knock the snot out of the ball better than nearly every other player in baseball, overlooked though that value may be. Without that, there's no reason for him to have a place on the roster.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
Sunday Morning Hot Links
Oh Jeez. It's happening, the collapse is happening. In the two weeks since July 4, the Astros' odds of winning the division have fallen from 62.3% to 29.4% and their postseason odds have taken a nosedive from 80.5% to 55.4% (all via FanGraphs). We're all going to suffer and die. OR you could look at it like it's now a 70-ish game season and the Astros are 1.5 games back behind a streaking team that is 15-5 in their last 20 games. On to them Hot Links...
*Scroll down a post and you can read the Masked Marvel's very good recap of last night's dumb 7-6 loss. A.J. Hinch said:
We had a chance to win the series tonight and we didn't do it...We didn't use our outs well enough early in the game and we ran out of outs. If you wonder if games in July matter, tonight is proof positive.
Rangers manager Hacksaw Jeff Banister, likely holding an American flag and a 2x4:
Our guys are not going to be pushed around
Feldman, on Rougned Odor:
I don't really know that Odor guy much, but he's got some good veterans he can learn the game from over there...He doesn't need to act like that.
Conger:
Whatever was exchanged between me and (Odor) is between me and him, but at the same time I wasn't too pleased about him taking his time getting into the box.
*What with Carter's ankle injury (which doesn't seem to merit a DL stint), Luis Valbuena and Hank Conger took grounders at 1B before last night's game.
*The Astros and Padres have held preliminary talks regarding a trade for starting pitching, presumably for Andrew Cashner and/or Tyson Ross, according to sources of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but "there are no indications of anything imminent."
Cashner, a Conroe native, won't be a free agent until 2017. Ross won't be a free agent until 2018.
*Buster Olney tweeted that the Phillies are engaged with multiple teams on trading Hamels, and are pushing to get a Papelbon deal finished.
*Dayn Perry wrote about Carlos Correa's power.
Is Correa already the American League's top shortstop? After six weeks or so of Correa, yes, that question can be asked plausibly. Of a 20-year old.
*A.J. Reed hit his first Double-A homer last night.
*Here's a fantastic article on Astros 40th Round pick Steve Naemark.
*What the Heck Bobby, has a cool look at former Astros players in Independent Ball
*A week ahead of Craig Biggio's Induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame, we wrote about why Nolan Ryan is wearing a Rangers cap on his plaque.
*Scroll down a post and you can read the Masked Marvel's very good recap of last night's dumb 7-6 loss. A.J. Hinch said:
We had a chance to win the series tonight and we didn't do it...We didn't use our outs well enough early in the game and we ran out of outs. If you wonder if games in July matter, tonight is proof positive.
Rangers manager Hacksaw Jeff Banister, likely holding an American flag and a 2x4:
Our guys are not going to be pushed around
Feldman, on Rougned Odor:
I don't really know that Odor guy much, but he's got some good veterans he can learn the game from over there...He doesn't need to act like that.
Conger:
Whatever was exchanged between me and (Odor) is between me and him, but at the same time I wasn't too pleased about him taking his time getting into the box.
*What with Carter's ankle injury (which doesn't seem to merit a DL stint), Luis Valbuena and Hank Conger took grounders at 1B before last night's game.
*The Astros and Padres have held preliminary talks regarding a trade for starting pitching, presumably for Andrew Cashner and/or Tyson Ross, according to sources of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but "there are no indications of anything imminent."
Cashner, a Conroe native, won't be a free agent until 2017. Ross won't be a free agent until 2018.
*Buster Olney tweeted that the Phillies are engaged with multiple teams on trading Hamels, and are pushing to get a Papelbon deal finished.
*Dayn Perry wrote about Carlos Correa's power.
Is Correa already the American League's top shortstop? After six weeks or so of Correa, yes, that question can be asked plausibly. Of a 20-year old.
*A.J. Reed hit his first Double-A homer last night.
*Here's a fantastic article on Astros 40th Round pick Steve Naemark.
*What the Heck Bobby, has a cool look at former Astros players in Independent Ball
*A week ahead of Craig Biggio's Induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame, we wrote about why Nolan Ryan is wearing a Rangers cap on his plaque.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Thursday Morning Hot Links
While the rest of baseball gets back to playing games today, the Astros have an extra day off to prepare of the Rangers coming to town for a three-game series starting tomorrow night. Let's get to the links:
*With just over two weeks until the Trade Deadline, Luhnow still considers starting pitching to be the priority, though the Astros are looking at improving everything:
We'll know more toward the end of July than we do right now whether or not our bats are able to come back. But we're continuing to look at everything: bullpen, starting rotation, offense.
*While the Astros are among the teams most interested in Johnny Cueto, Evan Drellich reports (previous link) that Luhnow and Reds GM Walt Jocketty's relationship could be a problem thanks to their previous time in St. Louis. An unnamed executive, on Jocketty:
He's going to have to have somebody come to him and blow him out of the water, and if he's got three deals and in his mind they're all comparable, I don't think the Astros win.
*And in what may be our first Shots Fired of the season, Luhnow spoke of Chris Carter:
You look at the production that Chris Carter gave us the second half of last year, and you don't want to miss that production. But it hasn't been there yet, quite frankly, and it's frustrating, because we know what he's capable of doing. I'm not sure we can wait all year for something to come if it's not coming. I believe he will get off to a quick start after the break and give us the production we need.
"I believe he will..." = "Chris Carter damn well better..."
*The signing deadline for 2015 draft picks is tomorrow, and 27th Round pick James Carter is the highest draft pick to not sign. The Astros aren't sure if 34th Round pick Conor Biggio will sign.
*While at the All-Star Game, Dallas Keuchel made a recruiting pitch to impending free agent David Price.
*FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan wrote about how the Astros can capitalize on their success.
*SI's Jay Jaffe, on the Cardinals' trade deadline options as they fight over the NL Central with the Pirates:
GM John Mozeliak has the depth to make moves, but one wonders whether the team's embroilment in the Astros database hacking scandal will make it harder for him to deal.
*Scott Boras is encouraged by Mark Appel's recent success.
*I was up quite late last night finishing a post on why Nolan Ryan is wearing a Rangers cap on his HOF plaque.
*The Diamondbacks, who as a franchise are dumb, had the bright idea to name a highway after 2015 Hall of Fame inductee Randy Johnson. Problem is, the highway to be renamed was initially named after the first Native American woman to be killed in Iraq. So the Diamondbacks, and the state of Arizona, backed off.
*With just over two weeks until the Trade Deadline, Luhnow still considers starting pitching to be the priority, though the Astros are looking at improving everything:
We'll know more toward the end of July than we do right now whether or not our bats are able to come back. But we're continuing to look at everything: bullpen, starting rotation, offense.
*While the Astros are among the teams most interested in Johnny Cueto, Evan Drellich reports (previous link) that Luhnow and Reds GM Walt Jocketty's relationship could be a problem thanks to their previous time in St. Louis. An unnamed executive, on Jocketty:
He's going to have to have somebody come to him and blow him out of the water, and if he's got three deals and in his mind they're all comparable, I don't think the Astros win.
*And in what may be our first Shots Fired of the season, Luhnow spoke of Chris Carter:
You look at the production that Chris Carter gave us the second half of last year, and you don't want to miss that production. But it hasn't been there yet, quite frankly, and it's frustrating, because we know what he's capable of doing. I'm not sure we can wait all year for something to come if it's not coming. I believe he will get off to a quick start after the break and give us the production we need.
"I believe he will..." = "Chris Carter damn well better..."
*The signing deadline for 2015 draft picks is tomorrow, and 27th Round pick James Carter is the highest draft pick to not sign. The Astros aren't sure if 34th Round pick Conor Biggio will sign.
*While at the All-Star Game, Dallas Keuchel made a recruiting pitch to impending free agent David Price.
*FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan wrote about how the Astros can capitalize on their success.
*SI's Jay Jaffe, on the Cardinals' trade deadline options as they fight over the NL Central with the Pirates:
GM John Mozeliak has the depth to make moves, but one wonders whether the team's embroilment in the Astros database hacking scandal will make it harder for him to deal.
*Scott Boras is encouraged by Mark Appel's recent success.
*I was up quite late last night finishing a post on why Nolan Ryan is wearing a Rangers cap on his HOF plaque.
*The Diamondbacks, who as a franchise are dumb, had the bright idea to name a highway after 2015 Hall of Fame inductee Randy Johnson. Problem is, the highway to be renamed was initially named after the first Native American woman to be killed in Iraq. So the Diamondbacks, and the state of Arizona, backed off.
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