7-8-9 in context

Any Astros fan over the age of 25 remembers Everett-Ausmus-(Pitcher) in the Astros' lineup. [Stares out window] Those were the days, huh?

Back in 2004, the bottom third of the Astros' lineup produced a .242/.305/.341 slash line, which was a significant dropoff from the top two-thirds of the lineup in which each spot posted an OPS over .800. 7-9 combined to hit 23 home runs all season.

Obviously the Astros' game has changed since 2004 - both with analytics from a smart front office, and with the switch to the AL and the designated hitter. But still. Let's look at recent history to see how the bottom third of the 2019 Astros' lineup stacks up:

Production, 7-9 in the order, 2019:

Season	Slash Line	OPS	K:BB ratio
2019	.272/.348/.471	.819	2.34
2018	.230/.301/.388	.689	2.92
2017	.271/.329/.481	.810	2.52

Whereas the 2004 Astros got 23 home runs from the bottom-third of the lineup, the 2019 Astros have already gotten 19 home runs from their 7-9 hitters. Again, the game has changed. Still, last night after Marisnick went 2x3 with a single, triple, and 2RBI, he had this to say:

It's a testament to how good this lineup is. I mean, it's a dangerous lineup. It's long. We make pitchers work all the way through.

One of the hallmarks of the 2017 Astros team was their depth. 44 games into the season, the 2019 Astros team is deeper - and better offensively - than the 2017 World Series Champion team. This is of course a credit to both Robinson Chirinos and Jake Marisnick: Chirinos’ 155 wRC+ is far and away the best of his career, his previous high was 124 wRC+ back in 2017, and he’s posted 1.4 of his career 4.8 fWAR in 33 games this season. Chirinos is absolutely an upgrade over Martin Maldonado, who’s hitting .191/.288/.255 in 34 games for Kansas City.

Marisnick’s hot start is nothing new – he swung the bat well early in 2017, posting a .917 OPS in April before finishing the year with a .239/.310/.488 line. Marisnick is just hitting the ball harder this year – his 34.8% Hard-Hit rate is the highest of his career. The strikeouts are still there for Marisnick, at 30.1% of his PAs, but that’s still his lowest K-rate since 2016.

So how does this stack up to the rest of the league? Again, the bottom third of the order, 2019:

“Team”	Slash Line	OPS	K:BB ratio
Houston	.272/.348/.471	.819	2.34
American League	.230/.302/.383	.685	2.93
MLB	.232/.306/.381	.687	2.80

Well I certainly didn’t expect the American League, with the DH, to have worse bottom-of-the-order production relative to the rest of MLB.

Coming into the games of Thursday, May 16 there are only six AL teams at or above .500. How do those six teams stack up, depth-wise?

Team	Slash Line	OPS	K:BB ratio
Minnesota	.275/.354/.509	.864	2.38
Houston	.272/.348/.471	.819	2.34
New York	.270/.344/.452	.796	2.60
Tampa Bay	.232/.303/.363	.666	3.55
Cleveland	.209/.290/.333	.623	3.14
Boston	.201/.289/.315	.604	2.48

Again, did not expect to start this as a “look how deep the Astros’ lineup is” piece and halfway through writing it have to stop and tip my cap to the Twins. But here we are.

Since expansion (1962), these are the teams with the highest sOPS+ from 7-9 in the lineup:

Team	Slash Line	sOPS+	K:BB Ratio
2019 Twins	.275/.354/.509	149	2.38
1965 Reds	.275/.349/.437	148	1.59
1963 Twins	.280/.346/.431	142	1.54
1964 Red Sox	.275/.349/.435	141	1.50
2003 Red Sox	.281/.353/.490	141	1.97
2016 Cardinals	.273/.346/.479	139	2.26
1977 White Sox	.278/.356/.446	137	0.98
2019 Astros	.272/.348/.471	137	2.34

To put it another way, the Astros have the 6^th-highest sOPS+ from the bottom of their order in the last 57 years of the American League.

Overall, the Astros’ lineup is incredibly deep. They have a 134 wRC+ top-to-bottom (the Twins sit at 117 wRC+). The previous record for a season since integration (1947) was 122 wRC+ set by… the 2017 Astros. Or we can go back to 1900 and see this:

Team	wRC+
2019 Astros	134
1927 Yankees	126
1930 Yankees	124
1931 Yankees	124
2017 Astros	122

Those are the top five wRC+ in baseball since 1900, and the 2019 Astros are smoking Murderers’ Row. Yes, the 1927 Yankees had their Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Earle Combs in the same way that the 2019 Astros have their Alex Bregman, George Springer, and Carlos Correa. But the ’27 Yankees needed Joe Dugan and Pat Collins like the Astros need Chirinos and Marisnick.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

I'm home from work with the flu, so let's pass the time with some hot Astros content. 

*It is five days until Pitchers & Catchers report. 

*Jose Altuve is "the epitome of everything that's right around the Astros."

*A.J. Hinch said he'll likely use over 150 different lineups in 2017. 

*The Astros and Marwin Gonzalez avoided an arbitration hearing with a $3.725m deal for 2017 and a club option for 2018 worth $5.125m. 

*You'll be able to watch eight Astros play on various World Baseball Classic rosters: Jose Altuve (Venezuela), Carlos Correa (Puerto Rico), Alex Bregman (USA), Carlos Beltran (Puerto Rico), Luke Gregerson (USA), Nori Aoki (Japan), and Kevin Chapman (Canada). Minor-league signee Dayan Diaz will play for Colombia. 

*The Astros are buying an empty office building in West Palm Beach to turn into a hotel for Spring Training, and to turn into $$$$$ from April-January.

*Mike Lupica wrote about the Ballpark of the Palm Beaches.

*MLB is going to try out - in the Gulf Coast League and Arizona League - starting extra innings with a runner on 2nd base. Yep, you heard that right. An American League executive:

This is something that was discussed in the big group at the GM Meetings. It got more support than the strike zone change.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*Jake Kaplan has a pretty remarkable note in his story on roster depth and Hinch's penchant for playing matchups: In two seasons as manager he has never used the same lineup more than four times. Hinch:
As the batting order evolves, as the playing time is sorted out, I'm likely to have an angry guy next to me on the bench which is a good problem to have, maybe I'll have two. I hope all three of them are mad and want to play.

*FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan has an entertaining article: A Very Stupid Jose Altuve Hypothetical

*Jeff Bagwell is now on 38 of 43 known ballots (88%) for the HOF. Having picked up two votes from returning voters over 2016 (the same number as Mike Mussina), Bagwell needs to pick up at least 12 more votes to make the 75% needed Last year Newsday's Steven Marcus only voted for Trevor Hoffman and Ken Griffey, Jr. This year his only two selections are Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero.

*The seven-year old kid that wrote Jeff Luhnow is now Elementary School Famous.

*Colby Rasmus made ESPN's Danny Espinoza All-Star Team for players who can't be defined by a single stat.

*Alex Speier wrote about the Red Sox players involved in the Chris Sale deal.

*People in Corpus are being advised not to drink the tap water.

Sunday Morning Hot Links

At 20-11, the Astros have a 34.1% chance to win the division and a 48.0% chance of making it to the postseason, according to FanGraphs.

*Maybe you noticed, but Marisnick was batting leadoff, and Altuve hit 2nd last night.

*George Springer stayed in Houston for this trip, and Hinch doesn't know if he'll be activated from the 7-Day DL on Wednesday.

*Evan Drellich has a profile on ace Dallas Keuchel

*It's from a couple of days ago, but Jeff Luhnow told the LA Times, "It's satisfying to be relevant again."

*Hank Conger grew up an Angels fan then was the Angels' 1st Round pick in 2006, and has caught the last five Keuchel starts.

*The Fresno Bee looks at Jon Singleton's unusual struggles vs. LHPs, and manager Tony DeFrancesco is going to let him figure it out.

*The Des Moines Register talked to A.J. Hinch about his Iowa roots.

What is the Astros Ideal Lineup for the Second Half?

For the first month or so of the season, the Astros were trucking along with a league average offense in pretty much all statistical categories. No so much, anymore. At the All Star break, the Astros are 28th in runs scored and 28th in wOBA, ahead of just the White Sox and Marlins in both categories. Is there any hope for improvement on that in the second half? Below is one man's opinion for the ideal Astros lineup for the second half. (This man, in case you were curious)

Now, I'm trying to be realistic with this. You and I both might fully believe George Springer would outperform any CF on the 40 man roster, but there is no indication he will be called up anytime soon. Also, this lineup would look a lot better if we gutted the farm system to get Mike Stanton. Not going to happen. Also, while this is designed to improve the offense, you can't ignore defense. A run saved is as good as a run earned.So, the offense might be better if we plugged Carlos Pena as SS, but I won't be suggesting that. I will be using the rest of season projections from ZiPS and Steamer as an objective base, but there will be some subjectivity involved as well.

C- Jason Castro - Knocking out the easiest one first, Castro has been the best offensive player on the team in the first half, and projects to be the among the best offensive players on the team in the second half. I'm a little more bullish than even his projections, which are predicting quite a bit more regression than I anticipate.

1B - Brett Wallace - This one gets tricky. There are three "1B" on the roster right now. I am not a believer in Wallace's resurgence...scratch that, just surgence, any more than I was a believer that he was the worst hitter in the majors back in April. I still believe he is the same guy who put up a 104 wRC+ last year and a 95 the year before, until I see otherwise for more than a couple weeks of hot/cold. Steamer agrees, projecting a rest of season wRC of 102. That said, he remains the best option at first, especially if the goal is to get Chris Carter out of the field. Which mine is.

2B - Jose Altuve - Another easy choice. Altuve is not having as good of a year as he did last year, but he remains the only viable choice for second base. Steamer and ZiPS project more of the same for the rest of the season, but I think he will have a much better second half.

SS - Jonathan Villar - James made an impassioned case for Jonathan Villar the other day, and I have no qualms with giving him a shot. He is problematic for this exercise as neither ZIPS or Steamer has anything to say about him. But, Marwin Gonzalez projects to hit .244/.281/.335 (ZiPS) .248/.287/.335 (Steamer) for the rest of the season. Not good, and not much better than Cedeno's .230/.277/.336 (ZiPS) 238/.290/.359 (Steamer). Elmore's projected line is just slightly prettier, at .247/.326/.311 (ZiPS).266/.338/.317 (Steamer). I mean, it would be hard to get any worse than that.

3B - Matt Dominguez - I had high hopes for Matt Domniguez. Those are waning. Domniguez's power prevents him from being the worst hitter in the majors - just 13th worst by wRC+. Until he learns how to draw a walk, its not likely to get much better. And most of the advanced defensive metrics don't like his glove nearly as much as my eye does. Unfortunately, the only other option is Wallace, who is an absolute butcher defensively at 3B. Obviously, incredibly small sample size, but Wallace has been worth 5 runs below average in only 9 career starts at the hot corner. If he was placed as the everyday 3B, he could wind up costing the team upwards of 50 runs. The better option would be trade for Matt Davidson, who is currently hitting .291/.354/.500 as a 22 year old in Triple A for Arizona.. I've got my fingers crossed.

LF - Marc Krauss - Krauss has not been good. He doesn't project to be good. He certainly does not project to be better than J.D. Martinez. He is about the same age as J.D. Martinez, so its tough to base this on "give the young guy a shot." In fact, there is very little reason for me to put Krauss' name here instead of J.D. Martinez. Still going with Krauss. What do ZIPS and Steamer know, anyway. I guess you could platoon them, but Krauss didn't show much of a platoon split in the minors. I say lets see what he can do.

CF - Justin Maxwell - Maxwell has not shown any of the power he demonstrated last year, with his slugging percentage dropping from .460 to .365 and his ISO dropping from .232 to .135. Other than that, he as essentially been the same hitter - i.e. abysmal if power is not there. ZIPS and Steamer both expect him to get a little of that power back, but not enough for him to be above average offensively again this year. He makes up for some of that with his glove, which is projected to push him to at least above replacement level. Again, Springer might in fact be a better choice here, and likely will be come September. Barnes has been roughly the same batter as Maxwell, but doesn't have anywhere near the power potential.

RF - Robbie Grossman - That's right, the very same Robbie Grossman who hit .198 in his first stint with the team. Steamer and ZIPS both project more of the same, with a low batting average, and no power. But he will get on base. Even with his horrendous first go round, his on base percentage of .310 was significantly better than Barnes' .291. And in the last month before he was sent down, it was .347, which would be tops on the team. He is heating up a bit down in AAA, hitting .340/.435/.509 over his last 14 games, and I think its time to give him another shot.

DH - Chris Carter - This leaves Carlos Pena out in the cold. Thing is, Carter is essentially Carlos Pena three years ago, the one the Astros hoped they were getting when they signed Pena. In 2011 with the Cubs, Pena hit .225/.357/.462, good for a 121 wRC+. Carter is at .226/.326/.469, for a 118 wRC+, and that's trending up. Pena, on the other hand, is a shell of his former self, sporting career lows in OBP, Slugging and wRC+. Lets go with the younger model. But please, oh please, stop letting Carter give back nearly all of production by playing him in the field. He is a DH - which is perfect, since we have that now.

This will not be a good lineup. Not even close - only two, possibly three, even project to be above average offensively over the rest of the year. However, combined with their defensive contributions, each of these players (except for Krauss and Grossman, who I'm expecting more from than their projections) projects to be at least above replacement level for the rest of the season. That's an improvement, considering the Astros position players combined for -1.1 WAR in the first half. I believe this lineup, ran out there most everyday, gives the Astros the best chance at avoiding ignominy in the second half. Now, about that bullpen....

Lineup for G6: A's @ Astros

And the series finale is today, with the Astros trying to go 2-4 on the opening homestand before heading a couple of thousand miles northeast to play in the new geographically-logical division. Here is your lineup:

1. Jose Altuve - 2B
2. Justin Maxwell - CF
3. J.D. Martinez - LF
4. Chris Carter - DH
5. Brett Wallace - 1B
6. Carlos Corporan - C
7. Matt Dominguez - 3B
8. Brandon Barnes - RF
9. Marwin Gonzalez - SS

Brett Wallace gets the day off

Brian Smith tweeted out the lineup for tonight's game against the A's, and you will not be seeing Brett Wallace (MLB-leading 11) - or Rick Ankiel (tied for 2nd with 9) - build on their strikeout totals.

1. Jose Altuve - DH
2. Ronny Cedeno - SS
3. Chris Carter - LF
4. Carlos Pena - 1B
5. Justin Maxwell - CF
6. Jason Castro - C
7. J.D. Martinez - RF
8. Matt Dominguez - 3B
9. Marwin Gonzalez - 2B

Lineup for G4: Oakland vs. Houston

The Astros posted a pic of the lineup card for tonight's G4 against the A's, and it is as follows:

1. Jose Altuve - 2B
2. Brett Wallace - 1B
3. Chris Carter - LF
4. Carlos Pena - DH
5. Justin Maxwell - CF
6. Rick Ankiel - RF
7. Jason Castro - C
8. Matt Dominguez - 3B
9. Marwin Gonzalez - SS

Lineup posted for Saturday's ST1

New broadcaster Robert Ford (who actually is quite entertaining on Twitter) posted the lineup card for the first 2013 Astros Spring Training game. Your lineup:

1. Tyler Greene - SS

2. Marwin Gonzalez - 2B

3. Justin Maxwell - CF

4. Chris Carter - 1B

5. Fernando Martinez - LF

6. Nate Freiman - DH

7. Matt Dominguez - 3B

8. Carlos Corporan - C

9. Justin Trevor Crowe - RF (I went to college with a "Justin Crowe")

Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace, and Carlos Pena are all fine - apparently it's just a scheduled Rest Day for all three. 

Lineup for G10 @ Nationals

Zachary Levine has your lineup for tonight's game at Washington, which sees Brian Bogusevic getting a seat on the bench in favor of Travis Buck:

1. Jordan Schafer - CF
2. Jed Lowrie - SS
3. J.D. Martinez - LF
4. Carlos Lee - 1B
5. Travis Buck - RF
6. Chris Johnson - 3B
7. Jason Castro - C
8. Jose Altuve - 2B
9. Kyle Weiland - P

Lowrie hitting 2nd tonight

So the lineup for G7 is up, and Jed Lowrie is hitting 2nd (ending that debate), with Altuve dropping all the way down to 8th.

1. Schafer
2. Lowrie
3. Martinez
4. Lee
5. Bogusevic
6. Johnson
7. Castro
8. Altuve
9. Harrell

Anyone have a problem with the way the lineup is constructed?

Lowrie activated, Bixler sent down

Jed Lowrie has been activated from the DL, and Brian Bixler has been sent to OKC.

We didn't get to see much of Brian Bixler - just 7PAs - but he got a hit, walked, and struck out three times.

What I'm most interested in seeing is where Mills will put Lowrie in the lineup. Originally it was thought that Lowrie would be the #2 hitter but Jose Altuve, in six short games, has been solid at the #2-hole - getting on base 10 times in 23 PAs. Lowrie has spent most of his time at #6 or #7, so we could see the following:

1. Schafer
2. Altuve
3. Martinez
4. Lee
5. Johnson
6. Bogusevic
7. Lowrie
8. Castro / Snyder
9. Pitcher

Thoughts?

Fragile things are not safe in our presence

You won't believe this, but Travis Buck is taking J.D. Martinez's place in the lineup tonight against Brandon Beachy.

Alyson Footer:
Mills has stated that he wants to work in the bench guys early for a start. That is likely why Buck is playing in addition to being LH.

So it's:
1. Schafer - CF
2. Altuve - 2B
3. Buck - LF
4. Lee - 1B
5. Bogusevic - RF
6. Johnson - 3B
7. Castro - C
8. Gonzalez - SS
9. Happ - P

Righties have hit Beachy for a .238/.300/.363 line, while lefties hit him for a .241/.313/.388, an OPS difference of 37 points favoring LHBs.

Lineup for G2 vs. Rockies

Some changes for tonight's lineup against the Rockies:

1. Jordan Schafer - CF
2. Brian Bixler - 2B
3. J.D. Martinez - LF
4. Carlos Lee - 1B
5. Chris Johnson - 3B
6. Brian Bogusevic - RF
7. Chris Snyder - C
8. Marwin Gonzalez - SS
9. Lucas Harrell - P

Brian Bixler's career slash line as a starter? .178/.238/.220

Today's lineup is awfully young

Brian McTaggart posted today's lineup, and we (as well as Brooks) noticed that it featured a young group. How young? Well, the average age is 24.55.

J.B. Shuck - 24
Jose Altuve - 21
Brian Bogusevic - 28
J.D. Martinez - 24
Jason Castro - 24
Chris Johnson - 27
Brett Wallace - 25
Marwin Gonzalez - 23
Kyle Weiland - 25

There's absolutely no way I'm taking the time to go and see if this is the youngest lineup of the Spring, or of franchise history, or ever, but it's pretty fun.

Before you freak out...

You may have seen tonight's lineup for the Cardinals. One that has Jason Bourgeois in right field, and Hunter Pence as scarce as common sense in Washington.

But don't worry, says Zach Levine:

Pence said he was told last night he'd be out of the lineup for a day off. He's still very much here.

Nobody has any idea what they're doing on Crawford Street

Want to see tonight's lineup?

Bourn
Bourgeois (LF)
Pence
Lee (1B)
Johnson
Barmes
Altuve
Quintero
Happ

This is indefensible. Thirty-five games under .500, and Brett Wallace doesn't get a start. You're probably thinking - well, St. Louis must be throwing a left-handed pitcher. If you're thinking that, you've been Millswashed into thinking that Wallace simply can't start against LHP.

BUT YOU WOULD BE WRONG. Because the Cardinals are throwing Kyle McClellan, who - at last report - threw baseballs with his right hand. The only reason I can think that would result in me not jumping on Mills' shoulders and biting him on the nose is if Ed Wade told him, "Hey, the Angels will trade Mike Trout for Carlos Lee. They just want to see Lee play 1B one more time." That's it.

Here's why, for God's sake, Wallace isn't playing tonight

You may have seen the lineup for the Astros against Washington tonight. If you have, and your blood pressure didn't immediately spike, you have moved past Apathy, because the Astros are facing Jason Marquis - a right-handed pitcher - and Mills is still sitting Brett Wallace.

Why? Alyson Footer has the details (combined for your viewing pleasure):
Mills said he called Wallace to his office after game yesterday. Told him he doesn't have him in lineup today. Said "you had two hits last night, your approach at the plate for 3 or 4 days is much better. Stay with that. This is nothing against you." Noted Carlos and JMike's numbers against Marquis are good. Wants to play them.

This makes me want to break my Mickey Mouse Astros bobblehead (yeah, I have one of those), because it's so very obviously not a long-term decision. It's about winning one game, and this season isn't about winning one game anymore. 2011 has evolved into winning games in 2012, 2013, and beyond. Sitting Brett Wallace against a lefty is stupid, if only because it prevents him from learning to hit against lefties. Sitting him against a right-handed pitcher because Jason Michaels is 7x10 against Marquis is downright criminal for the future of the franchise.

Astros' #2 hitters have been worth #2

Perhaps you've noticed the revolving door of hitters from the #2 spot over the course of the last handful of games, as Brad Mills tries to find someone, anyone, who can hit.

Because it just hasn't been happening.

Over the course of the season, #2 hitters are posting a .246/.316/.311 line. The .627 OPS is 57 points lower than the #9 spot, but not as bad as the #6 spot, with a .206/.275/.300 line, and we'll do the math for you: .275 OBP + .300 SLG = Caca.

Since May 7, the Astros have trotted out Angel Sanchez, J.R. Towles, and Clint Barmes. In those ten games, here's what you've had:

Angel Sanchez: 0x10, 2BB
J.R. Towles: 0x12, 2K:2BB
Clint Barmes: 1x14, 2K:3BB, HBP

Yes, that's 1x36 with 4K:7BB and an HBP. So just to make this more quantifiable, that's a line of .027/.182/.027.

Barmes gets the start at St. Louis today, so let's see what happens.

Lineup for G35: Astros v Reds

Interesting lineup for tonight's game, in which we see:

*J.R. Towles hitting 2nd.
*Bill Hall hitting in front of Brett Wallace

I really like the first part. Kind of want to vomit at the 2nd.