Sunday Morning Links That Are As Hot As Your Toasted Bagel

At the bottom of the Saturday Morning Hot Links, the Constable informed all three of our readers that there would be no Sunday Morning Hot Links because he was unavailable.  Well, he didn't factor in some annoying busybody stepping in write a vastly inferior set of Hot Links.  Constable, enjoy your morning off.

Here goes...

* The mighty Houston Astros continued to to carve through the Rest of Baseball with a 5-2 win over the Orioles.  We will summarise the games' big moments shortly, but for now, let's take a look at what this means, in bullet-point format:

• The Astros, with their record of 34-16, are off to their best start in franchise history through 50 games... by three games.  The 1998 team, which won 102 regular season games, started their campaign 31-19.  Of course, the '98 team were to manage seven further win streaks of 4+ games over their next 112 fixtures.  They were pretty good.  Until the playoffs, that is.
• The Astros' .680 win percentage is 0.040 ahead of the next best team, the Rockies.  Both teams have played 50 games now - the Astros have a better record than the Rockies by two games.
• The Angels beat the Marlins, so they have an even .500 record, and are in second place in a surprisingly weak AL West.  The Angels are 9 games back of the Astros.  The West Paris Ramgers dropped their fifth in a row to drop to 10 games back.  I don't want to invoke the Curse of Dave Raymond here, but if the Astros head into Arlington late next week and do well, the Ramgers may be close to buried.
• The Astros improved to 7-2 against the AL East.  Buuuuut, Toronto are starting to play better (with the left side of their infield returning from injury), and the Red Sox have David Price back, so maintaining that record will definitely not be easy.

* Dallas Keuchel returned in the minimum time from a 10 day DL-stay due to a pinched nerve in his neck.  He lasted six innings (86 pitches), striking out 8 and walking two.  He allowed one earned run on 4 hits.  The runner who scored walked with two outs in the top of the third frame.

* I was interested in the need for the quick-ish hook for Keuchel (6 innings, 86 pitches) aside from the whole return-from-the-DL thing.  I also got the impression that in the early going, he was locating down consistently, whereas he seemed to be elevating later in the game - or at least not painting the bottom of the zone and below.  Brooks Baseball helped out a little with strike zone plots from the first two innings...

... and then from the fifth and sixth innings:

So Keuchel perhaps was elevating a little later in the game.  I guess this raises concerns around him not finishing his pitches off, and concerns about ongoing neck or shoulder pain / pathology.  Shoulder pain has been cited as being the main reason for his 2016 struggles, and shoulders and necks are closely linked, so it is possible that he wasn't feeling that comfortable, or that some mechanical changes crept  in later in the game that AJ factored in when making the decision to remove him.

(Obvious caveat here - Keuchel threw sinkers pretty much the whole time in the first two innings, and a much higher proportion of offspeed pitches the second and third time through the order.  So that may account for some of the location changes).

* Replacing Keuchel in the sixth (and pitching with a lead of less than 10 runs for the first time in a while) was Tony Sipp.  He allowed a long triple to Chris Davis on a pretty fat pitch, so this appearance didn't go well.  Sipp has been better lately, but the Astros still appear to be without a situational lefty. 

* More slightly-odd pitching decisions - James Hoyt relieved Sipp and finished the sixth, including allowing Davis to score on a brutal wild pitch.    Then Hoyt stayed on to open the seventh, where he threw to one batter.  Hoyt wasn't exactly dominating - he seemed to have trouble locating with both his fastball and his slider.  Then Luke Gregerson relieved Hoyt to finish that frame.  Very weird, especially because I see Hoyt and Gregerson as quite similar pitchers - not sure why Gregerson wouldn't get to open the inning himself. 

* Will Harris earned the save with a perfect inning involving two strikeouts.  Devo and Giles were presumably unavailable.

* Also returning from the DL - Brian McCann, who caught Keuchel, while going 0-2 with two walks at the plate.  

* In terms of the offense: lots of hits clustered at the top of the order.  The top five players went (respectively):  George Springer - 2-5 with a home run, José Altuve - 3-4 with 2 doubles, Carlos Correa - 2-4, Evan Gattis (DH-ing) - 1-4, and MarGo - 2-3 with a walk.  José Altuve batted second for only the second time this year, I believe.  

* Springer scored in the first on a long double off the CF wall by Altuve.  He rounded third as the second baseman gathered the relay, but an impressive slide saw him beat the tag.  Springer followed with a long home run into the LF power alley - the ball must have rattled near the train for a while, 'cause it too a long time to come down.

* Amusing moments during the seventh - the crowd starting chanting "Rally Bird" because of the presence of a small bird that hung around on the infield grass near third base.  It looked plenty comfortable there.  Rally Bird must be a thing, because the Astros won.  At least Julia Morales didn't have to eat any insects this time.  Also: birds eat insects.  So perhaps eating insects is the key for the 2017 Astros.

* Check out this catch from Carlos Correa.  Wow.

* Finally, this game was televised nationally on Fox.  The colour-commentator was none other than ex-Astros great Preston Wilson.  Astros fans of last decade will remember him - Wilson was signed as a free agent to the Astros for the 2006 season to play left field.  I recall "Fast Eddie" Wade talking about how he may hit 50 home runs at MMP because of the short left field porch.  Well, Wilson was good for a .269/.309/.405 line in 416 PA's, managing only nine home runs.  He was subsequently traded to the Cardinals where he showed some late-season life, hitting 8 home runs in 120 PA's.  He retired after a partial season with the Cards in 2007.

Aside from that, I quite enjoyed listening to Preston Wilson.  I couldn't listen to him every day, but he was interesting, reasonably slick and friendly, and he was strong on the technical details of what he observed, especially the outfield defensive plays.  He certainly isn't the worst colour-guy on the national baseball circuit.

In other news:

* AC favourite Bradley J Peacock and his 2.00 FIP will remain in the rotation, apparently at the expense of Mike Fiers and his 7.56 FIP.  Fiers heads to the bullpen.  This is going to be interesting, as Fiers out of the bullpen for Houston has generally not been good in very limited duty - 8 earned runs in 9 innings for Houston over 2015 and 2016.  I recall one awful relief appearance in Arlington when Lance McCullers got bounced early and Fiers gutted out a few innings while giving up a bunch of runs, but I don't recall Fiers ever being particularly good out of the 'pen.

* Jim Bunning, HoF pitcher for the Tigers and Phillies passed away.  Bunning's most recent time in the public eye came as a US Senator from Kentucky.  He died from complications from a stroke suffered in October last year. 

* Jameson Taillon is going to return to the mound again, less than three weeks after surgery for testicular cancer.  He begins a minor league injury-rehabilitation assignment in AA Altoona.  Best of luck to Taillon - hopefully he avoids chemotherapy.

* Ex-Stro Nolan Fontana hit his first ML Home Run for the Angels against the Marlins.  The Astros thought Fontana was all about the strike zone judgment, but he has instead busted out as a power hitter.  Another black mark for Houston in the "player evaluation" column.

* And because we are starved of Astros-related news: two Yankees did something cute!! Let's post it on all of the prominent media outlets' baseball home pages, shall we??  Sigh...

* Lastly, the worst strikeout of all time.  Josh Fuentes (the batter) could have started for the 2012 Astros.  In the four-spot.

Hope you enjoyed reading.  With any luck, the Constable will return tomorrow.

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros beat the Tigers 1-0 yesterday behind Brad Peacock's ridiculously strong spot start and a Jose Altuve RBI. Peacock threw 4.1IP, 1H/0ER, 8K:2BB. Devenski, Harris, and Giles combined to throw 4.2IP, 0H/0ER, 6K:0BB in relief.

*The Astros are 30-15 (.667), tied for the best start in franchise history, and the first team in MLB to 30 wins. They would need to go 64-53 (.547) the rest of the way to hit 94 wins.

*It's the Astros' first one-hitter since July 20, 2013 against Seattle when Erik Bedard, Jose Cisnero, Travis Blackley, and Jose Veras combined to hold the Mariners to one hit with 15 strikeouts and six walks. The Astros managed to lose that game 4-2. Perhaps you better remember it as the game where Erik Bedard had a no-hitter through 6.1IP, but had thrown 109 pitches and asked to be taken out of the game.

*Peacock:
I felt great out there tonight. I haven't felt that way in a long time. 

*Hinch:
That was an excellent effort in production. Everything you could ask for going into the game, just by being able to get into the fifth is one thing, and get into the fifth with all those punchouts and really keeping the game under control is another. And on top of that, it's a one-run game. That's a pretty special performance. 

*The Astros got nine hits on the night but were held to just one run, going 0x9 w/RISP.

*Brian McCann, who thinks he got his concussion taking a 97mph foul ball off the mask against the Yankees but didn't go on the DL until almost a week later, is feeling much better.

*Vice Sports: The Astros have baseball's new Murderer's Row

*Ol' boy Dave Raymond said that Houston fan reaction to the Astros start was "laughable."

*Yesterday I took a guess as to why Kyle Tucker and his 1.004 OPS are both still in High-A.

*Jordan Jankowski's wife is named Jordan.

*Nolan Fontana, the Astros' 2nd Round pick in 2012, was called up by the Angels yesterday.

*NY Times: Where did the great Hollywood baseball movie go?

*Before you go, the Marlins' Southern League affiliate in Jacksonville has this promotion...

I've witnessed thousands of weird @MiLB promotional events, but this tops them all. pic.twitter.com/RAvgl7XXRc

— Jessica Kleinschmidt (@KleinschmidtJD) May 22, 2017

Somethings a-happenin' in Astroville

Probably a little late with this post, but I can't help pointing out a couple of interesting developments lately.

The Astros already added some guys...
We already posted something that discusses the additions of Josh Reddick and Brian McCann.  My take, briefly, is that both were left-handed hitters with a higher likelihood of solid 2-4 WAR seasons than the Astros that they replaced - Colby Rasmus and Jason Castro, respectively.  However, with increasing age comes risk - both of the decline-in-performance type, and in the sudden-catastrophic-injury type.  But the Astros managed to add two lefty veterans without losing any draft picks and top-10 prospects, so that is definitely something.

Plus Nori Aoki.  He was claimed off waivers from Seattle.  I seem predestined to leave him out of discussions about the Astros' offseason.  I pretty much forgot about him when writing the above-linked article, and nearly managed to forget about him for this one too.

We haven't managed to get much up on Charlie Morton.  He seems like an interesting cat, and deserves a post of his own over the next couple of weeks.  I promise to get on to it shortly!

The Astros subtracted some guys...
I am not sure what most readers' definition of "major" is.... as in "major free agent".  But Jason Castro was the first of the "major free-agents" to sign this offseason.  Now, either routine grounders to the right side are the new market inefficiency, or Jason had some very real value.  FanGraphs thinks it was the latter - that Castro was underrated, and the Twins pounced in a competitive market to snare his services.  Most Astros fans may respectfully disagree.

There are some other fairly significant departures.  Pat Neshek is a Phillie, in exchange for the dreaded "PTBNL or cash".  Colby Rasmus was probably gone before the Astros boarded their flight for Anaheim to finish the season.  Luis Valbuena is a free agent.  And so is Doug Fister.  That all adds to five departures of players that occupied important spots on the 25-man roster this season.  Three of them were left-handed hitters.

Sneakily, the Astros also subtracted a couple of players from their 40-man roster as well.  Nolan Fontana is now an Angel.  Fontana's stock had dropped, and the Astros have a bit of a middle-infield log-jam, so this was expected.  But the timing was curious - Fontana was DFA'd around the time that teams were DFA-ing roster flotsam to clear spaces to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft.  The time stamp on the above article is from the claim, which occurred a few days after the DFA.  The Astros had open spaces on the 40-man, so perhaps there was no need to cut Fontana at that point.  They could have been trying to sneak him through waivers, hoping that he got through cleanly due to all the activity around the other teams needing to purge their rosters.

As an aside, the Astros also added LHP / Reliever Reymin Guduan and his career 7.16 BB/9 to the 40-man at the Rule 5 deadline.  He could get a serious look at Spring Training, as the Astros always looked a couple of left-handers short in the 'pen in 2016 (thanks, mostly to Tony Sipp's poor season).  He brings triple-digit gas, so there is that.

And, of course, well after the 40-man roster-purges, the Astros pulled the trigger on the highest profile DFA of their offseason - that of Jon Singleton.  Singleton was never a risk of getting claimed, thanks to his famous contract which he signed shortly before receiving the call up that would result in his major-league debut.  Singleton is owned $2MM for each of the next two years, so expect him to be manning first at Fresno in 2017 then Round Rock in 2018, unless he turns things around in a hurry.

So as things currently are...
... the Astros' 40-man roster stands at 38.  For those who struggle with math, that looks to me like two vacant slots are hanging around.  Let's speculate as to how they may be filled...

The Astros have been very active on free agency, being in on all major free agents except Jose Bautista.  According to MLBTR, and only over the last three weeks, they have been linked to Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Beltrán (lots of times), Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, and Rich Hill.  They were runner-up in the Yoenis Cespedes sweepstakes, reportedly with some kind of "strong offer" for the left fielder.

Now there may be some inaccuracies within these rumours, but where there is smoke, there is usually fire.  It seems that the Astros are not content to stand pat by adding McCann and Reddick, and get full seasons out of Yuli Gurriel and Alex Bregman.  They are clearly committed to adding another bat in free agency, it seems.  The market may move a bit faster now that Cespedes is off the board, so this may be settled quite quickly, one would think.

Trades are also possible, but if the Astros were to trade (for example) for Chris Sale, then one would imagine that it would involve at least one player currently on their 40-man going the other way.  So significant trades will require the Astros to give something significant up, so I doubt that they are leaving a spot vacant on the 40-man so they can run the medicals on a trade.  A lesser trade - say for perhaps Jay Bruce - may not come at a significant prospect cost, so perhaps the 40-man roster may be needed for something like that.

The next logical place to look other candidates to fill one of the two 40-man roster spots is in the Rule 5 Draft.  Historically, this has been a good place to pick up relievers or back-end starters, and hide them in the bullpen for a year.  This is something that rebuilding teams look to do, and the Astros clearly plan to compete in 2017, so it may not fit their 2017 modus operandi.  Baseball America has a Rule 5 draft primer here, and it seems that the most interesting candidate is utility infielder, Phillip Evans.  MLB.com has and article listing 10 Rule 5 names to watch for, and five of them are left-handed pitchers that may look ok in a few bullpens around baseball.

Finally, as always, the Astros will probably be watching the waiver-wire closely.  Will Harris and Collin McHugh are both waiver-wire pickups, so they may be waiting for someone on their internal list of players to be DFA'd.  Like, perhaps, Chris Carter!  For your Chris Carter virtual brochure, just click here...

Something is a-brewin'.  The Front Office seems to be working hard.  The next week or two could prove to be very interesting.  Or, alternatively, nothing will happen until the next Collective Bargaining Agreement is signed.  Thanks for reading.

Astros Depth Charts: the Middle Infield Edition

To whittle away the time between now and the start of Spring Training, we at Astros County plan to preview each positional group of Astros, looking at the history and projections for the players that we are likely to see in 2016.  We will look at the Major League roster, all relevant players who have managed significant time at AA and above, and any interesting, available or reasonable trade targets or free agents.

We started with the Catchers a couple of days ago, and if you missed the Primer, here it is.


Shortstop:  Carlos Correa (21, turns 22 in September)

I may be out on a limb here, but I am ready to anoint Carlos Correa as the 2016 starting shortstop for the Astros, barring injury, natural disaster or alien invasion.  Correa, famously, was drafted first overall in 2012 out of Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, and he made the jump from AA, with a brief stop at AAA, to the major leagues in June of 2015, after sitting out much of 2014 with what I recall to be a broken tibia (often reported as a broken fibula, which is a much more common injury, but I definitely remember it being reported at the time as a broken tibia).  He enters the 2016 season as the reigning Rookie of the Year after he raked to the tune of .279/.345/.512 in 432 plate appearances.  He hit 22 home runs and doubles, one triple, and stole 14 bases against four caught stealing.  He struck out 78 times against 40 walks.  That all amounts of a bWAR of 4.1, although Fangraphs was a less bullish 3.3 fWAR, amassed over only 99 games.  Baseball Prospectus rated him a 2.7 Wins Over Replacement Player.  Pro-rating B-R's digits for the whole season results in a bWAR of 6.7.  Now cast your eyes upward and remind yourself of his age.

I can only really say one more thing beyond what I have said in the above paragraph about Carlos Correa.  The numbers quoted above are impressive and speak for themselves.  What may be more impressive is his maturity.  Everyone he meets seems to be impressed by him, and in interviews he comes across as respectful, polite, and a keen guardian of the game.  He is going to be fun to watch over the next few years, and will be easy to root for whether you support the Astros or not.

Correa's strength appears to be his bat, which is fabulous, especially for an up-the-middle player.  The various statistical systems are less bullish about his defence.  He finished 2015 with a -7.3 Fielding Runs Against, and the statistics commonly employed by Fangraphs and B-R all indicate a slight negative rating for his defence overall.  What we often say about the Astros and fielding stats is that there are concerns about how they can be applied to the Astros, because of the frequency and intensity of their shifting, especially regarding the infield.  Correa seemed to be a solid defender to the eye, but remember that we watched a whole lot of Jed Lowrie and Marwin González prior to his call up, and that may have made Correa look more impressive in comparison.  His crucial error in Game 4 of the ALDS may have helped shorten the Astros' season somewhat, but that was certainly not typical of how he fielded during the year.  The best part of his defensive arsenal seems to be his arm, which reminds me of a cannon, and supports any future move to third base.

Just as a reminder, Correa managed a .279/.345/.512 triple slash in 2015.

Marcel seems to think that Correa will have fewer plate appearances in 2016 - it is a very simple projection system, after all - but that his triple slash will largely remain the same, showing only a slight decrease in power (.282/.346/.496 with 19 HR).  Steamer likes Correa to play the full season, but to also take a slight hit to his power numbers (.275/.340/.458 with 22 HR).  Steamer also thinks that Correa's defence will be a slight plus this year, yielding an overall fWAR of 4.2.  ZiPS disagrees with Steamer and Marcel regarding Cornea's power, suggesting a .273/.340/.492 triple-slash, with a strikeout rate just below 20%.  This would result in an overall zWAR of 4.9, which is pretty awesome for a middle-infielder.  ZiPS' number one comparison for Correa is Troy Tulowitzki - I would certainly take Tulo's career for Correa at this point.

I think we can all agree - Correa is pretty frikking awesome, and he is capable of being the best shortstop in the league this year.  However, his modus operandi has been - to this point - more about slow and steady development, so perhaps we should temper our expectations and expect a little less, rather than more form Correa for the upcoming season.  He needs to avoid injury, of course, and the rigors of playing a full season may be a bit of a challenge for 2016.  On that note, I would expect Hinch to proactively rest Correa if the Astros are doing well early in the season in order to prevent him wearing down later in the summer.


Second Base:  José Altuve (25, turns 26 in May)

José Altuve - everybody's favourite Astro - seems set to man the keystone in 2016 - again barring unforeseen circumstances such as the aforementioned alien invasion or other stuff.  Altuve is a fascinating guy: he is short (generously 5-foot-6), young, and has already amassed nearly 3000 ML plate appearances for his career.  He has manned the keystone full-time since 2012, and has been awarded two Silver Sluggers and one Gold Glove in the process.  He signed with the Astros as an amateur free-agent in 2007, and since signing, has done nothing but rake his way through the Astros system, into the major leagues.  He is also signed to a ridiculously team-friendly contract: he will earn $3.5MM in 2016, $4.5MM in 2017, and has two team options totalling $12.5MM for the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

Altuve is coming off another solid season where he assembled a .313/.353/.459 batting line, hitting a career high 15 home runs in the process.  He stole 38 bases, but was caught stealing 13 times - both league highs.  He reached the 200 hit-plateau for the second time.  He was worth - according to the various systems, 5 bWAR, 4.3 fWAR, or 3.2 WARP.

As impressive as 2015 was for Altuve, it was a slight regression from 2014, where he slashed .341/.377/.453 and stole 56 bases.  But Altuve's 2015 was superior to 2014 in two important categories - his power hitting, and his defence.  Altuve's defensive numbers improved according to both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs, moving into slight positive territory in both measures.  Baseball Prospectus (Fielding Runs Against) thought that Altuve's 2015 was less-negative than his 2014 and 2013.  Regardless of what the unintelligible defensive stats say, Altuve was recognised by his peers by virtue of being awarded a Gold Glove which (i) should be mainly seen as a sign that he is a good all-round player rather than the best defensive player in the AL at the keystone and (ii) recognition that his defence isn't awful, which it once was.

The forecasting systems like Altuve's ongoing offensive excellence, which is no surprise because he has been an excellent player for three of the last four seasons.  Marcel projects Altuve to slash .315/.355/.439 with 10 home runs and 34 stolen bases.  Steamer sees a little bit of regression, forecasting a .307/.350/.433 triple-slash with 11 home runs and 36 stolen bases, adding up to an fWAR of 3.3. ZiPS sees what Steamer sees, projecting Altuve to hit .309/.346/.432 while striking out in less than 10% of his at-bats, hitting 11 home runs, and stealing 40 bases.

Most betting Astros fans would take the "over" on both Fangraphs systems, I would think.  Astros fans have seen Altuve continually beat his projections in the past, and would likely characterise him as an outlier with continued similar production going forward.  The heartless projection systems often have trouble with consistent outliers, often projecting regression unfairly in early-career stats, not realising that some guys are freakish.  Perhaps that is what is happening here.

Altuve, like Correa, obviously needs to avoid injury.  Anything that eats into his speed would be a disaster.  And also like Correa, ZiPS projects Altuve to produce north of 4 zWAR.  For those keeping count at home, the Astros starters in the middle infield are projected to combine for 9 zWAR in 2016.  Goodness, that is a decent core to build around.


Backup:  Marwin González (26, turns 27 in March)

MarGo is an interesting case.  He was signed as an amateur free agent by the Cubs in 2005, but was claimed by Boston in the Rule 5 draft in late 2011, and promptly traded to the Astros for minor leaguer Marco Duarte (who has spent the last three years pitching in Mexico).  The Astros of 2012 and 2013 were pretty starved of talent, so Gonzalez was allowed to post poor batting numbers (65 and 58 OPS+'s) in 152 games and 441 plate appearances combined over the two seasons.  However, a stronger 2014 saw him post a .277/.327/.400 in 310 plate appearances, resulting in a 105 OPS+.  He continued along the same lines in 2015 (.279/.317/.442 in 370 plate appearances) resulting in a slightly better 106 OPS+.  He hit 12 home runs in 2015 - twice what he has hit in any other year, and as many as he has hit between 2012 and 2014.  Combine that with positional flexibility and a solid-but-unspectacular glove, and the Astros have a bench player of considerable value.

MarGo posted a bWAR of 1.5 and 1.8 respectively in 2014 and 2015 (and an fWAR of 0.8 and 1.5 over the same period).  Baseball Prospectus rates him as posting a 1.4 WARP each year over 2014 and 2015, which is plenty valuable in part-time duty.  Perhaps the best thing about González is that he won't hurt you if he has to step in to a regular role for a month or two.

González's value - at least measured by some kind of WAR-to-salary ratio - is about to take a hit, however.  He was arbitration eligible for the first time this year, and MLBTR projected him to earn around $1.9MM, which still seems like a bargain for the Astros.  González signed for a little over that   - he will play the 2016 season earning $2MM annually.  It will seem like less of a bargain in a few years, especially if González breaks the $5MM barrier, which I imagine he could do in 2017 with another strong full season.

What is also notable about González is how he has managed to ward off challengers for his super-utility roster spot.  In particular, Jed Lowrie (.222/.312/.400 with 9HR, 1.0 bWAR) and Jonathan Villar (.284/.339/.414, 0.9 bWAR in 128 PA's) both had the potential to challenge for González's roster spot, but both have been the victims of offseason trades for seemingly poor returns.

The interesting thing about González's 2015 was his splits.  In the first half of the year, he "hit" .253/.279/.412 in 203 PA's.  In the second half - and we all remember him having some vital knocks for the Astros down the stretch - he hit a considerably better .313/.364/.480 in 167 PA's.  His September/October was particularly hot: .308/.345/.519 over 56 PA's, which is a huge bonus for a utility guy.  And some of this occurred with a finger and wrist injury that he sustained in September, which apparently restricted his swing from the left side.  It is also notable that he was stronger against lefties last year (.295/.347/.496 versus .268/.296/.405), which is not consistent with his career mark (.681 OPS against LHP versus .690 against RHP), so the hand/wrist injury may have had something to do with that.  The Astros didn't really have many effective lefty-mashers on the bench last year, so González was doubly useful.

So González has transformed himself from a light-hitting Rule 5 shortstop into a defensively flexible bench bat who won't let you down, and has an ability to get on a hot streak.  He is entering his prime years (he is 26 at the time of writing), and is about to start getting expensive.  He is likely to be around for a few more years yet, given the offseason trades of his challengers, which is nice for the legions of Astros fans who love him.

In terms of his 2016 projections, Marcel seems him hitting .267/.313/.408 in 416 PA's, with 11 home runs.  Marcel thinks that the recent surge in power is for real, despite it predicting a slight regression in 2016.  Steamer sees MarGo regressing significantly: .252/.294/.381 with 7 HRs in 342 PA's, good for a 0.5 WAR - not the worst from a utility guy, but Jonathan Villar may have been a better option if that was what MarGo hits next year.  ZiPS sees similar production: .257/.295/.385 with 8 home runs, again not buying into González's hot second half of 2015.  ZiPS also sees González posting a slightly above-average strikeout rate (18.5%) but a well below-average walk rate (4.4%).

MarGo could do his future playing prospects a lot of good with another solid year.  The AL is, after all, crying out for another Ben Zobrist (who slashed .297/.405/.543 in his stellar 2009 - his best campaign).  Mentioning Ben Zobrist is a little rough on Marwin - Zobrist was absolutely stellar in his time with Tampa Bay, and expecting any utility man to match that production is grossly unfair.


Also on the 40-man:  Nolan Fontana (24, turns 25 in June)

Nolan Fontana is the only remaining player currently on the 40-man roster capable of manning a passable shortstop.   It therefore seems likely that he will probably be the first player called up in the event of a Correa or González injury.  Fontana was added to the 40-man in advance of the 2015 Rule 5 draft which was held at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings.  He was drafted in the second round of the 2012 amateur draft as a polished OBP-type infielder graduating college.

Since then Fontana has steadily advanced through the minor-leagues to Fresno.  He sports an OBP over .400 in his minor-league career, but his 2015 line at Fresno was a little uninspiring and perhaps portends an inability to play at the very top level: .241/.369/.357 in 456 PA's, with 3 HR.  He walked 74 times against 99 strikeouts, maintaining a walk rate of well above 10% (16.2%).  However, he has also consistently maintained strikeout rates of 20% or more in the minor leagues as well, so his walks obviously don't just come from amazing contact abilities and fighting strike 3 off until he gets ball four.

Marcel has no projections on Fontana, given he has no major-league PA's as yet.  Steamer sees him producing at a .218/.321/.307 clip in a handful of plate appearances in 2015, with a K% over 25%.  ZiPS is also unimpressed, forecasting a walk rate of 13.9% against a strikeout rate of 30%, resulting in a remarkable line of .195/.311/.284.

It is safe to say that 2016 is a big year for Fontana in what is likely to be his second AAA go-round.  He will need to hit better than he hit in 2015 if he is to hold his place on the 40-man roster.  He isn't young anymore, and his offensive value relies on a gaudy walk rate, which probably won't be maintained at the major league level without the ability to occasionally punish the pitchers for throwing the ball in the strike zone.  Fontana will also need to show some better skills at the plate if he is to push for a promotion, but clearly the most likely situation that would see him arrive in Houston in 2016 would be as cover for an injury.  He is also probably a good bet to be outrighted off the 40-man if he gets off to a slow start in AAA.


Invited to Spring Training:  Tony Kemp (24, turns 25 in October)

Tony Kemp is primarily a second baseman who was also given some time in the outfield in 2015.  This may have been because the Astros were interested in his all-round skills, and second base is... um... taken for the foreseeable future.  Kemp is also notable by virtue of his short stature (1 Altuve tall), and by the fact that he was selected in the fifth round of the 2013 draft.  He is Rule 5 draft eligible after this season and the Astros seem set at his primary position, so 2016 is shaping up to be a big year for him if he wants of push for a promotion.

In 2015, he hit a combined .308/.388/.386 in 541 PA's between Corpus and Fresno, with 3 home runs and 4 triples.  He made some stellar plays early on in his outfield career which got some Astros fans pretty excited and talking about perhaps seeing him in Houston in 2015.  Scouting reports since then seem to indicate that he has more work to do on his outfield routes, but he seemed to do pretty well for an in-season experiment.  His batting line at Corpus (.358/.457/.420) was far better than his batting line at Fresno (.273/.334/.696), so promotion past Fresno was not warranted in 2015.  However, Kemp was also promoted midseason in both 2013 and 2014, and a similar decline was noted each time at the higher level. He seemed to make an adjustment at the new level to start the next season each time - 2016 shapes up as an important year for him, too, but he will have to be pretty darn good to force a promotion.

Marcel has no projections - stupid Marcel - but Steamer is quite bullish on Kemp: .275/.334/.362, which is a reasonable line for a young, vertically challenged middle infielder (wRC+ 88).  What is very interesting is that this line will be obtained in one solitary plate appearance (Steamer predicts this for a number of guys on the fringes of the majors, so I will officially retire this joke now).  ZiPS is less bullish, predicting a below-average line of .253/.319/.338, but with an above-average strikeout rate of just over 15%.  All this, according to ZiPS, will occur in 532 plate appearances.

However, when compared with Nolan Fontana's Steamer and ZiPS projection above, Kemp's line is far more palatable.  Steamers line is superior to (i) Fontana's projection, and (ii) far better than Marwin González's 2013 season, in which González was also 24 years of age.  So both projection systems potentially see some future development in Kemp that they don't see in Fontana, which is understandable because Fontana has more unique overall profile.  Kemp certainly seems like the most likely prospect of this group to make an impact in Houston over the next couple of years.


Invited to Spring Training:  Joe Sclafani (25, turns 26 in April)

Sclafani is a switch-hitting infielder who was drafted in the 14th round of the 2012 draft out of Dartmouth College, the same college that produced legendary Astros slugger Brad Ausmus.  Sclafani was Rule 5 draft eligible this year, but remained exposed to the draft by virtue of his not added to the 40-man in advance of the Winter Meetings.  He (obviously) went untaken in the Rule 5 draft as he remains in the Astros organisation, where he will probably return to Fresno to play a mix of second base, third base and shortstop in 2016.

Sclafani spent 2014 between AA Corpus and AAA Oklahoma City.  In the latter of the two stops, he raked to the tune of .339/.420/.438 in 226 PA's, and continued his hot streak in the AFL (.370/.431/.543) to conclude 2014.  Prior to the 2015 season, I wondered whether he would get a serious look at the big leagues to open 2015, but instead he spent 2015 also split between Corpus (14 PA's) and Fresno (256 PA's) after a rough spring training.  Sclafani continued to splutter in 2015 - if he had continued the hot work with the bat that he managed in 2014, he could easily have had a look at the majors late last year.

As mentioned above, his 2015 batting line took a wee step backward, with Sclafani logging a combined .292/.370/.339 line between the two levels.  However, he continues to sport a walk rate over 10% at the AAA level, and his AAA K% was under 12% in 2014 and under 15% in 2015.  Sclafani seems a lot like Kemp and Fontana - there may be value there, but it is likely to be obtained through OBP rather than slugging.  His late-season 2014 performance may be the peak of his career, sadly.

Marcel, again, comes up empty in terms of projections because of a lack of major-league time.  Steamer sees Sclafani posting a .256/.315/.338 batting line, for an 80 wRC+.  ZiPS lands in a similar place: .241/.306/.310, with a strikeout rate of just over 17% and an OPS+ of 72.

2016 is a big year for Sclafani - repeat last-2014 and he will push for a spot in Houston in either the super-utility role, or in the corner infield.  Repeat 2015, and his days in the organisation may be over at the end of the season.


Interesting Guy:  Chan Moon (24, turns 25 in March)

Chan Moon is either a lefty hitting (according to Fangraphs) or switch hitting (according to B-R) middle-infielder who was born in Korea.  Moon was another guys who was Rule 5 draft eligible, but he was passed over by the other 29 clubs, going unselected.  He spent 2015 playing for four teams - Lancaster (71 PA's for a .322/.406/.475 line), Corpus (289 PA's for a .266/.356/.347 line), Fresno (7 PA's, did not reach base) and Glendale of the Arizona Fall League (.093/.241/.116).  Moon isn't young (2016 is his age 25 season) and he has a career slugging percentage of .354, so again he relies on contact and a good batting eye for value at the plate.

I won't spend much more time on Moon, and will move to the projections.  He is the longest of the long-shots AA or above in the Astros system in the middle infield.  Marcel remains silent on his abilities, which is entirely expected.  Steamer sees him hitting .229/.283/.309 for an wRC+ of 62, while ZiPS is similarly pessimistic, forecasting a .217/.271/.283 line (for an OPS+ of 55).  That isn't good.


Ex-Prospect:  Jiovanni Mier (25, turns 26 in August)

Firstly, I am aware that Mier is now in the Blue Jays system - I thought that I would post this projection for the sake of comparison with some of the other prospects.

Mier was taken as a first rounder in the height of the McLane nightmare drafts in 2009 (when McLane was trying to stay onside with Bud Selig and not go over the recommended soft-slot for draft signings) out of high school.  He briefly entered the top-100 prospect lists of Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, only to plummet quickly from prospect radar due to a significant lack of progression with the bat.  He has consistently been older at each level than you would want prospects to be, although he has been young for each level he has played.  That is unlikely to continue.

2015 saw him spend the entire year at Corpus (hitting .258/.350/.372 as a 25 year old), after he finished 2014 at AAA Oklahoma City (.250/.348/.310 in 118 plate appearances)  Going down a level is nearly never a good thing in terms of prospect development.  Meir sports a combined minor-league line of .239/.333/.340 in nearly 2800 PA's, which should tell you everything you need to know about his bat.  He has had some good stops along the way - in 200 PA's in Lancaster, he hit a solid .292/.396/.409 - but that says more about Lancaster than anything else, I would think.

Anyhow, Steamer has little hope for Mier, projecting a line similar to Chan Moon: .217/.282/.305.  ZiPS offers a projection of a similar nature: .209/.207/.295.  Again, that is not palpably better than the similarly-aged infield options listed above, nearly all of whom have performed better at higher levels in the minor leagues than Mier has.  I doubt that Mier sniffs Toronto this year, but he could be useful as a depth-piece, or as an organisational guy in the upper minors.  Best of luck to him.


The Guy They Traded:  Jed Lowrie (31, turns 32 in April)

AC readers should know all about Lowrie, who signed a 3-year sweetheart deal with the Astros prior to the 2015 season, then was traded before he could record 270 plate appearances within the contract period.  Lowrie and Handsome Jake Marisnick combined to prop up the Astros offence in April of 2015, but then Lowrie got injured, spending nearly three months on the DL after a thumb operation.  The Astros traded him for the second time to the A's for a seemingly underwhelming return and some salary relief.  I will write about the return when I talk about the bullpen later in this series.

Lowrie, as I have already written (same link as above), is a legit part-time Major League piece, so lets just head to his projections without worrying about his credentials.

Marcel likes Lowrie to log nearly 350 plate appearances, and post a .254/.321/.398 line with 9 home runs.  Steamer sees a similar line of .252/.323/.383 - the degree of similarity between Steamer and Marcel is logical, because Lowrie is an established major-league player, not an early career-guy like many of the players we have reviewed.  Oakland's ZiPS projections have not been released yet, but it seems likely that it will also project Lowrie in the vicinity of .255/.325/.400 - his established major-league performance.

Lowrie's projected OBP is better than everyone here, except Tony Kemp's OBP.  That includes MarGo.  But Lowrie also would have been circa-$4.5MM more expensive this year, and if you think MarGo's projection is a little light, then Lowrie's advantage quickly disappears.  2016 will be an interesting year to watch for Jed Lowrie, but the Astros could quickly regret letting him go.


Another Guy They Traded:  Jonathan Villar (24, turns 25 in May)

I also made my thoughts public on the Villar trade, earlier in the offseason, essentially doing the blogging equivalent of lying on the floor of my study, crying uncontrollably, kicking and punching the floor, and sobbing "why??" over and over again.  Villar was a controllable piece going forward, having logged just over 1 year of service time.  He seemed to he improving, coming off an awesome September and October for the Astros where he slashed to the tune of .381/.435/.619.  At 24, his brain might mature enough to assist his on-field concentration, and stop him from muffing easy plays.  And he had the ability to make some outrageously good plays, as well.  His ceiling is high, but his floor, sadly, is probably a little lower.  Still, dammit, I like him.

The Astros opted to retain the safer Marwin González, and traded Jonathan Villar for an unheralded prospect, who will also get discussed in the upcoming piece on starting pitchers.

Here is what the projection systems think of 2106 Jonathan Villar: Marcel sees a .251/.313/.388 triple-slash, with 6 home runs in just over 260 plate appearances.  Steamer predicts some serious regression: .239/.301/.364, not liking a walk rate of 7.8% versus a strikeout rate of 25.5%.  ZiPS is unavailable at this time, as the Brewers' projections haven't yet been released.

Perhaps that trade for Cy Snead wasn't so bad after all.


Trade Candidate:  Nil

The Astros have been frantically trading away middle-infielders all offseason.  It would have to be a doozy of a deal for them to want to add players at this juncture.  I don't see a trade candidate entering the picture.


Free Agent:  Ian Desmond

The Astros are NOT going to shell-out nine-figures for Ian Desmond to play a crappy shortstop.  But, for the purposes of comparison, lets fast-forward to his projections.

Marcel sees Desmond posting a .251/.308/.415 line, striking out 155 times against 41 walks.  Steamer is even less keen, seeing a .236/.294/.390 line, with a nearly-28% K-rate and a 7% walk rate.  If those projections are accurate, I can see Desmond sitting out until the middle of the year, especially with a QO attached.


That wraps up the Astros' middle-infield depth charts.  The Astros have doubled-down on the middle infield trio of Altuve, Correa and González by trading away Lowrie and Villar.  Waiting in the wings is a group of guys who need a big 2016 remain with the organisation.  This includes Nolan Fontana, Chan Moon and Joe Sclafani.  Tony Kemp is the pick of the non-major-leaguers in this group, but will need to be added to the 40-man at the end of the season, else he will be exposed in the Rule 5.  Kemp is the most likely - according to the projection systems that we have covered - to make a decent step forward and produce at the Major League level.

The only other point I would make is that the Astros seem a little exposed to injuries in the middle infield.  If either Correa or Altuve go down for any length of time, then that will force González into an everyday role, and bring (probably) Fontana up from the minor leagues.  If the projections are to be believed, that could prove to be a disaster, and potentially be the difference between a postseason berth and an October at the side of a pool or on a golf course.

As always, thanks for reading.  Please feel free to comment.

PreStros Morning Report: Aug 9

Been a while since we've had a chance to do this, but we'll take a cue from the archives when, after a particularly brutal loss it was cathartic to look at the minors...

Fresno (67-48, 11.5 up)

Fresno came into the 9th and final game of a long homestand with an 8-0 record, but allowed the first nine runs of the game in a 9-3 loss to Sacramento. Brady Rodgers allowed 8H/7R (5ER), 4K:2BB in 5.1IP.

Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Tyler White: 1x2, 2B, 2BB, RBI
2. James Hoyt: 1IP, 0H/0ER*
1. Nolan Fontana: 2x4, 2B, BB

*Since May 1, Hoyt has thrown 28.2IP, allowing 29H/9ER, 38K:7BB

Corpus (72-42, already clinched playoff berth)

Corpus had a 1-0 lead heading into the 7th, and left the 7th tied 2-2. Then Midland enjoyed a pair of three-run innings for an 8-3 win over Corpus.

Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. A.J. Reed: 3x5
2. Jon Kemmer: 3x4, 2B, HR, RBI
1. Michael Feliz: 6IP, 3H/0ER, 8K:3BB

Lancaster (57-56, 3.5 GB)

J.D. Davis homered in his 6th straight game as Lancaster whooped up on High Desert, 8-0. Keegan Yuhl and Michael Freeman combined for 9IP, 3H/0ER, 9K:1BB.

Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. J.D. Davis: 2x4, HR, 4RBI
2. Michael Freeman: 3IP, 0H/0ER, 4K:0BB
1. Keegan Yuhl: 6IP, 3H/0ER, 5K:1BB

Quad Cities (74-37, already clinched playoff berth)

Quad Cities came into Sunday's game with their 2nd 12-game winning streak of the season, only to fall short of tying a club record in a 3-1 loss to Dayton.

Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Drew Ferguson: 1x4, outfield assist
2. Bobby Boyd: 1x3, BB, SB
1. Brock Dykxhoorn: 7IP, 6H/2ER, 8K:1BB

Tri-City (28-21, 3.0 up)

Tri-City erased a 2-0 deficit with a 3-run 4th, going on to beat Lowell 6-3.

Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Alex Winkelman: 5IP, 5H/2ER, 3K:1BB
2. Brooks Marlow: 2x5, 2 2B, RBI
1. Dexture McCall: 1x3, BB, HR, 2RBI

Greeneville (24-20, 1.5 up)

Greeneville dominated Bristol on Sunday in an 8-1 win in which Bristol didn't get their 1st run until the 9th inning. Makay Nelson, Matt Bower, Andrew Thome, and Samil De Los Santos combined for 9IP, 8H/1ER, 8K:0BB.

Three 'Stros of the Game:
3. Brauly Mejia: 2x4, wB, 2RBI
2. Kyle Tucker: 3x4, 2B, RBI, SB, outfield assist
1. Pitching staff

GCL Astros (14-25, 8.5 GB)

Game report was somehow unavailable.

State of the Astros: Shortstop

Over the next several days/couple weeks, I'd like to take a position-by-position look at the Astros, getting a quick overview of the current starters, backups, and minor league players who could contribute this season.

Starter - Jed Lowrie (Injured)

Back for his second stint with Houston, Jed continues to keep up spinning around the roller coaster of promise and disappointment. He carried the offense for the first three or so weeks then predictably hit the DL for a few months. He's due back some time around the All Star break, but hand and wrist injuries can be tough to come back from while maintaining pre-injury levels of production. Will we get back the Jed that can be a top offensive SS, or will we get something more similar to his last year with Oakland? And will he even be our starting SS anymore? He already has about 1 WAR in the back, so even with his injury he'll probably get to 2 WAR as long as he gets regular playing time. Whether that's at shortstop, third base, or in a utility role will be something to watch in the second half.

Reasonable end of season projection ranges

AVG - .250-.290
OBP - .320-.350
SLG - .370-.430

Backup - Marwin Gonzalez

Marwin currently has the most games played of those who have played short for Houston this year, but he's really a utility player. Though his total production isn't too far off from his career numbers, he's been doing it a bit differently this year. His walk rate has plummeted from acceptable to abysmal at just .9% but his power has been a bit up to balance that out some. He's not cut out to be an everyday player, but he has value in being able to handle multiple positions adequately and providing roster flexibility. He's on pace to be essentially replacement level, as usual.

Reasonable end of season projections

AVG - .230-.260

OBP - .250-.300

SLG - .340-.400

Backup - Jonathan Villar

Villar's been getting a little more playing time than Marwin lately and he's been about what we expected; flashes of amazing potential followed by extremely frustrating mental lapses. He's actually hitting fairly well for a shortstop, helping himself by significantly reducing his strikeout rate so far. Prior to Lowrie's injury the organization was trying to give him some reps both around the infield and in the outfield, so perhaps he could be a more dynamic yet erratic version of Marwin. Ultimately either Gonzalez or Villar won't stay with the club for the long-term, so hopefully one of them takes advantage of this competition.

Reasonable end of season projections

AVG - .220-.270

OBP - .280-.320

SLG - .340-.370

Prospect - Carlos Correa

This is the guy that we all know (little about how he'll perform in the big leagues) and love (until he has his first struggles and we all say he's not ready yet). But in all seriousness, Correa has just about closed the book on his minor league career by forcing Houston's hand with his performance. He's slowed a bit since being promoted to Fresno, but there's no way he carries his .246 BABIP for long and his BB and K rates show he's not over-matched. I wouldn't be shocked if the best prospect in the Astros organization, if not all of baseball, has spent his last full month in the minors. You never know exactly how a player will transition to the big leagues, but Correa's strongest tool may be his makeup so even if he stumbles out of the gate I don't expect him to be overwhelmed. He'll likely get a firm grip on the starting shortstop job this summer.

Prospect - Nolan Fontana

Fontana doesn't have the high ceiling of Correa, but he's the type of prospect that could be described as having a high floor. His calling card is his plate discipline, as his walk rates hover around an astounding 20%. He doesn't have a lot of power and doesn't hit for a high average, but it's rare for a player to get on base over 40% of the time, even in the minors. He's solid in the field, though not spectacular, and with Correa clearly the SS of the future he's been seeing time at 2B the last couple years.

Prospect - Joan Mauricio

Mauricio was one of Houston's international free agent signings last year and thus hasn't seen much time in organized ball. MLB.com ranks him as Houston's #30 prospect, though, and describes him as an excellent fielder with raw power at the plate. He's very, very far away but he may be a name to keep tabs on over the next few years.

Summary

It's hard to put a firm grade on this position when so much hinges on a 20 year old with less than 40 games above A ball. Marwin and Villar would get a C-, Lowrie would get a C+/B (depending on his return from injury), and Correa could be anywhere from a C to an A+ this year. Long term, though, let's go with an A assuming Correa is even 80% of what we expect.

Hoes Down, Chapman Up, plus Jed Lowrie's Injury.

L.J. Hoes was optioned to AAA after the first game of the Mariners series, with lefty relieved Kevin Chapman being summonsed to take his place.  The Mariners lean left in their batting lineup, so this move is totally understandable.  Remember when the Astros were fiddling with their starting rotation a year ago to get lefty starters to throw against the Mariners?  In the meantime, the Astros will play with a 3-man bench with plenty of positional flexibility - Conger, Grossman, Villar and González are all switch hitters, with the latter two having played nearly every position on the diamond and one of the two are expected to start at short in some kind of semi-platoon.

Lowrie's injury got me thinking.  Firstly, about how good the Lowrie contract was in the offseason.  When he departed in 2013 - after being acquired for a mercurial reliever - he had rebuilt his value with nearly 400 solid plate appearances on a bad team.  He raked for a middle infielder in 2013 over 154 games for Oakland (119 OPS+), and when he entered 2014, I wondered whether the Yankees would tab him as the interim replacement for DJ2, and offer him boatloads of cash in the process.  But his play in 2014 was not great, and it may have cost him a fair bit in contract money, but 3-and-23 is still an absolute bargain.  Especially when the guy mashes to a 179 OPS+ through the first 12% of the season.

Secondly, Lowrie is out until after the ASB, and he is going to rejoin the team as a fresh set of legs with around 2-and-one-half of the season to go.  If there are no lingering issues to his thumb - and there probably shouldn't be - then he will at least serve as a solid stretch-run addition.  Neither González or Villar is going to be a total naught at shortstop, and Lowrie has been unsustainably hot so the regression monster was starting to take an interest.  Perhaps the drop off in production could be less than first thought.

And while we are acknowledging the glass-half-full opinion of Lowrie's injury, it seems reasonable to look at how the Astros could use the DL time and roster spot to their best advantage.  No one seemed surprised when Jonathan Villar was called up - and they shouldn't have been - because he remains the logical replacement.  He has experience, positional flexibility, is a switch hitter, and a month ago was in the midst of a solid spring.  He also needs reps at the ML level to see what kind of player he will become, and the Astros would be wise to give him that opportunity now, lest they are forced to cut bait at some time in the future with that question unanswered.  Villar can do stuff on the field that other people simply can't, and I seem to remember that around a year ago, he was leading the Astros starters in slugging.  What I am trying to saw is that his ceiling is significant.

So Villar was always going to get the call up, although fans could be forgiven for being disappointed that the computer didn't spit out Carlos Correa's name.  Delay Correa's call up until this time next year (which would be developmentally very forgivable) and you get control until after the World Series in 2021.  Call him up now - and if you can't realistically return him to the minors because of solid performance - and you move his free-agency date to late 2020.  With the team winning as it is, and with a Villar-like candidate with his service clock already ticking, Correa wasn't ever coming up.

L.J. Hoes was called up for the series in the NL ballpark to allow for more of a pinch hitting option.  He was hot in AAA (.418/.458/.658 in a hitter-friendly league), but he only managed one plate appearance and one pinch-running appearance over the series.  With Sam Deduno starting - and likely to be restricted to around 60 pitches for this start - and with the pitchers hitting back in Houston, a 4-man bench is a luxury.  So the extra lefty reliever in Chapman was summonsed to counter the Mariners' lefty leaning lineup.

So, all pretty logical to this point, huh??  But Sam Deduno is (i) either going to return to being a long reliever or (ii) going to be stretched out to start full time and an extra arm won't be needed in the 'pen.  Either way, in a month or so, the fifth starter spot will hopefully be much clearer and someone who can carry a decent pitch load.  Either Obie or Peacock will be back, or Wojo would have benefitted from his time in AAA, or Deduno's name will appear in more permanent ink on the lineup card in the fifth starter slot.  So perhaps a four man bench in AL ballparks will become more defensible.

Assuming Conger and Grossman remain permanent bench players, and González and Hoes share shortstop duties, how could the Astros use this extra slot?  There are a number of interesting possibilities.  Preston Tucker is tearing up AAA right now, but he isn't on the 40-man, so another move would need to be made.  L.J. Hoes could pop back up and get more of a chance to mash.  Domingo Santana is another outfield possibility, and everyone remembers his time in the Majors from last year.  Jon Singleton is hitting .243/.369/.514 with four jacks, so perhaps he could get a look.  Nolan Fontana bats lefty, plays short, and is hitting .250/.394/.411, so he could be a possibility if Villar struggles (but isn't on the 40-man either, so a corresponding move would need to be made).  Joe Sclafani is a switch-hitter with positional flexibility, so he could get a look for a month or so, but this is becoming more of a long-shot with every name mentioned.

In terms of corresponding transactions, the guy on the 40-man who is at AAA who isn't performing well is our old friend, Matt Dominguez.  He has played 16 games, and is hitting .250/.299/.317 with no home runs.  I would hate to see Matty D leave the organisation, mostly because of how he would gently lays the bat down and trot around the bases at a good clip on home run balls.  Even if he crushed it and it was a massive home run in the context of the game, he always acted the same.  Showboating wasn't really his style, and when a guy is struggling in the majors and isn't taking the opportunity to show people up, then that earns some respect from me.

Of course, Matty D may be working on something very specific with the hitting coaches, and his number may have taken a hit on the basis that he is in an adjustment phase.  Numbers don't tell the whole story, and the Astros have been a scouting-savvy organisation recently, despite their reputation as ruthless number-crunchers.  There may be a plan with Matt D that I know nothing about - that would not surprise me at all.  The possibility of an adjustment may protect Matt somewhat.

This entry has gotten too long again, but I hope that my point has been made.  Jed's injury will keep him out for 2-3 months, and the first month or so of that will probably involve a short bench.  However, once the fifth starter - swingman areas of the pitching staff sort themselves out, the Astros have all sorts of tantalising options.  These include a number of guys that need a few months in the majors to see what they could become as players.  This list includes both guys that have seen The Show before (Hoes, Santana and Singleton) plus guys currently knocking on the door, that may need to be added to the 40-man.  A roster spot may have to be created, and Matty D looks to be at the stage of his career where he needs to hit better, or he may be struggling for a job.

Either way, the presence of too many players for too few roster spots on a first-place team is something that Astros fans should relish.

PreStros Morning Report: April 10

TL;DR

*Org Affiliates go 3-1 on the day, 7-1 on the season.
*Nolan Fontana was 3x3 with a walk, three runs scored, and a 3-run homer in an 8-4 Fresno win.
*Mark Appel threw 5IP, 2H/1ER, 4K:1BB in a Corpus win
*Lancaster was shut out, 5-0, but Danry Vasquez had a double, two walks, and a stolen base.
*Joe Musgrove threw 4IP, 3H/0ER, 5K:0BB in an 8-2 Quad Cities win

Fresno (2-0)

Fresno rode a 5-run 3rd inning to an 8-4 win over Las Vegas to improve to 2-0 on the young season. Handsome Dan Straily threw 5IP, 5H/3ER, 6K:3BB and then manager Tony DeFrancesco used four relievers over the last four innings to close out the game. Darin Downs and Jason Stoffel (2K) threw perfect innings, while Tommy Shirley (2K) and Kevin Chapman gave up just a hit each.

Nolan Fontana was 3x3 with a walk, a 3-run homer, and three runs scored. Matt Duffy (3RBI) and Preston Tucker (HR, 2RBI) had two hits each. Jon Singleton (hitting 2nd) and Matt Dominguez (hitting 7th) had RsBI. Max Stassi and L.J. Hoes were each 1x4 with 3K.

Man of the Match: Nolan Fontana

Corpus (2-0)

The Hooks offense wanted to make sure that Mark Appel was under as little pressure as possible, so they gave him a 5-0 lead before he even took the mound, and beat Springfield 8-2. Appel had a strong start, going 5IP and allowing just 2H/1ER, 4K:1BB, and Kyle Westwood closed it out with 4IP, 4H/1ER, 1K:0BB.

Carlos Correa was 2x3 with two doubles, two walks, and an RBI; Teoscar Hernandez was 2x5 with a double, homer, and 2RBI; Tony Kemp (BB) and Jon Kemmer (RBI) added two hits each. Colin Moran and Conrad Gregor were 1x4 with an RBI, and Telvin Nash was 1x5 with 2RBI.

Man of the Match: Mark Appel

Lancaster (1-1)

First organizational loss of the season what is Jeff Luhnow even doing? San Jose got a 4-run 3rd inning to shut out Lancaster 5-0. Michael Feliz lasted just 2.2IP, allowing 8H/4ER, but with 4K:0BB. Chris Cotton threw 2.1IP of 1H/0ER, 4K:0BB relief, and Zach Morton threw 4IP, 2H/1ER, 3K:2BB to close it out.

The JetHawks managed just five hits, but Chase McDonald had two of them, with Danry Vasquez (2B, 2BB, SB), Ronnie Mitchell (BB), and Chan Moon providing those three hits. Both J.D. Davis and A.J. Reed are still looking for their first hits after two games.

Man of the Match: Danry Vasquez

Quad Cities (2-0)

Quad Cities got three runs in the 3rd, and never gave up the lead in a 5-2 win over the Peoria Peorias. Bryan Radziewski got the start, and in 4IP, gave up 3H/2ER, 5K:2BB; Joe Musgrove threw 4IP of 3H/0ER, 5K:0BB tandem relief and Jose Montero threw a scoreless 9th, striking out two.

The River Bandits - which is a very aggressive name and I'm not sure we should be teaching our kids that it's okay to be a steamboat villain - got 12 hits, eleven of them singles. Mott Hyde (RBI), Derek Fisher (2R), Nick Tanielu (3B, BB, RBI), and Ryan Bottger (2BB, RBI) had two hits each. Bobby Boyd, Jamie Ritchie, and Alfredo Gonzalez had a hit and a walk.

Man of the Match: Joe Musgrove

Seven More Optioned... Still No Surprises... Camp at 44

The Astros continued to send out minor-leaguers and NRI's, with seven more optioned Friday.  Pitchers Jason Stoffel and Alex White, catcher Roberto Pena, infielders Colin Moran, Nolan Fontana and Matt Duffy, and outfielder Preston Tucker we all sent out.  Six of the seven were reassigned as invitees, and Alex White was optioned, as he was on the 40-man.

Alex White was probably the only one of that group with a realistic chance of breaking camp with the Astros on Opening Day.  He was competing for the last spots in the rotation / bullpen swingman role. However, he continued to struggle - as he has done since he lost 2013 to surgery - in the 4 innings that he pitched.  He gave up 7 earned runs on 8 hits, with six walks versus no strikeouts.  He pitched his way off the team, plus the Astros really needed to give innings to Sam Deduno and Wojo in preference to White, so this move isn't a shock.

Preston Tucker probably attended spring training with an outside chance of forcing his way into a crowded outfield / DH roster.  His plans for a hot spring were derailed by a HBP to his hand, which resulted in a break from baseball activities for a little more than a week.  He went hitless in 11 plate appearances, but walked twice (and took first on the afore-mentioned HBP) versus three strikeouts.  Tucker will undoubtedly get a look at some stage - but perhaps not in 2015 - and for now he will man the outfield in Fresno.

Colin Moran (.444, BB in 10 PA's) and Matt Duffy (2-7, 2BB, HR in 9 PA's) both turned some heads, but were unlikely to make the remain in camp by virtue of the play of Luis Valbuena and the need for reps at 3B for Valbeuna, Dominguez, Petit and Gonzalez.

Nolan Fontana struggled in 11 PA's, recording one single but walking twice.  Shortstop and second base are about as crowded as third base, with two established up-the-middle regulars, and the utility guys needing a look.  So no surprise with his exit, either.  And Roberto Pena didn't record manage to get on base in 5 PA's, and again, was likely the victim of a busy catcher-rotation.  No surprise.

These moves leave us with little clue as to how the spring-training battles are shaking down, but things are starting to get closer to a resolution.  Of the Astros remaining in camp - and according to MLBTR - only Chris Carter, Alex Presley and Luis Valbeuna (and the free-agent signings) cannot get optioned to minor-league camp, although Sam Deduno is out of options as well (according to the Chronicle) and appears to be so, given his years on the ML roster.  Joe Thatcher and Roberto Hernandez have XX(B) protection, which means they require a roster spot five days out from opening day, or the team will need to pay a $100K retention bonus and the player will need to agree to head to AAA to start the season.  XX(B) players also get a opt out option for June 1 if they are not in the major leagues on that date, so there is some additional options for Roberto and Joe.

Interestingly, there have been trade rumour rumblings from teams in need of lefty-relievers and starting pitchers.  The Orioles - in particular - are looking at lefty relievers according to MLBTR, and the Blue Jays and Rays are both looking for starting pitching due to injuries.  Neither of the XX(B) players will demand a great deal in a trade because of their XX(B) opt-out dates, but the Astros may explore trade options for others in the same position battle, such as Kevin Chapman or Dan Straily (names listed only as examples).  This may also have the effect of clearing roster space for Thatcher or Hernandez to be added.

But all this is speculation.  For mine, the big questions are also the predictable ones.  Will Dominguez even make the 25-man?  What will the outfield look like? And who will throw in the back-end of the rotation and man the last couple of spots in the 'pen?

Correa, Appel, Others Receive Spring Training Invites

The Astros announced they are inviting Mark Appel, Carlos Correa, Nolan Fontana, Colin Moran, Joe Sclafani, Andrew Aplin,  Preston Tucker, Luis Flores, Tyler Heineman, Roberto Pena, Brady Rodgers, Jason Stoffel, Jordan Jankowski, Gregorio Petit, Matt Duffy and Dan Johnson to Spring Training for the upcoming season.

The invites range from top prospects with no chance to make the big club, to potential role players aiming to win jobs out of spring training, to Dan Johnson, who you might have missed is now in the organization.

This is one of the joys of spring training for me, seeing the future playing alongside with the present. Also, Dan Johnson.  Pitchers and catchers report on February 20. Now that the Hall of Fame ballot watching is over, I'm getting a little antsy for real baseball to start. Just around the corner.

PreStros Morning Report: April 22

Late start this morning, seeing as how that's two after-midnight games in a row (and my daughter woke up about ten minutes after last night's game ended). So let's get this on:

TL;DR

*Astros affiliates go 4-0 on the day; Composite record: 44-31.
*OKC defeated Memphis behind David Martinez's strong start and Jon Singleton's 8th homer.
*Corpus' bullpen held Midland scoreless for 8.2IP, winning on a 12th inning walk-off by Nolan Fontana. 
*Josh Hader struck out seven in 5IP as Lancaster cruised to a 5-1 win at Inland Empire.
*Thomas Lindauer hit two homers (5RBI) in an 11-2 Quad Cities win over Clinton.


Oklahoma City (12-8)

OKC had a 8-1 lead before Memphis got two back in the bottom of the 8th and then, well, that's pretty much it. OKC wins at Memphis, 8-3. David Martinez threw 5IP, 3H/1ER, 0K:1BB with ten groudball outs (four flyball outs). Bobby Doran allowed 4H/2ER, 0K:1BB in 3IP, and Rhiner Cruz struck out the side in the 9th.

Robbie Grossman was 2x2 with 3BB while Jonathan Meyer was 2x4 with his first homer of the season. Jon Singleton hit his 8th homer of the young season and added a sac fly RBI. His eight homers lead the Pacific Coast League (2nd in all of Triple-A, behind J.D. Martinez) and 25 RBI lead all of Triple-A baseball. Ronny Torreyes was 1x4 with an RBI, and Enrique Hernandez continued his tear at OKC with a double and 2RBI.

Man of the Match: Robbie Grossman

Corpus (11-7)

Corpus found themselves down 5-0 in the middle of the 2nd before tying the game up with four in the bottom half and one in the 4th. In extra innings Nolan Fontana knocked in Jio Mier with two outs in the bottom of the 12th for a 6-5 win over Midland. Aaron West gave up 6H/5ER, 2K:2BB in 3.1IP; then Alex Sogard (2.2IP), Jordan Jankowski (2IP - 1H, 3K), Travis Ballew (2IP - 2H) and Andrew Robinson (2IP 3K:2BB) held Midland scoreless over the next 8.2IP.

Nolan Fontana's walk-off capped a 4x7 day; Andrew Aplin (RBI), Matt Duffy (2B) and Jio Mier had two hits each. Chris Epps hit a 2nd inning grand slam and then added three walks to his day.

Man of the Match: Nolan Fontana

Lancaster (13-6)

Lancaster jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first and cruised to a 5-1 win at Inland Empire. Josh Hader threw 5IP, 2H/1ER, 7K:1BB; Chris Devenski threw 3IP, 1H/0ER, 2K:0BB and Jamaine Cotton struck out two in the 9th.

Tony Kemp, Caralos Correa (2B), and Rio Ruiz all had two hits each; Teoscar Hernandez hit a two-run homer; Danry Vasquez was 1x4 with an RBI and a walk.

Man of the Match: Josh Hader

Quad Cities (8-10)

Quad Cities was all over Clinton, up 7-0 before Clinton got a run, and ultimately winning 11-2. Adrian Houser threw 4IP, 4H/2ER, 3K:4BB; Pat Christensen allowed a hit in one scoreless inning; Gonzalo Sanudo threw 3IP, allowing 2H/0ER, 3K:0BB and Andrew Walter closed out the game. Sanudo has faced 50 batters this season. None of them have scored.

Thomas Lindauer was 3x4 with two homers and 5RBI; Tanner Mathis (BB), Chase McDonald (2 2B, 2RBI), and Alex Gonzalez (2 2B, 3RBI) all had two hits each. Brett Phillips was 1x4 with a triple and a walk; Jobduan Morales was 1x4 with a double and a walk.

Man of the Match: Thomas Lindauer

*Note: Clinton's RF is named Burt Reynolds

PreStros Playoff Report: September 11

Lancaster

Welp. That sucks. Lancaster had a 3-1 lead going into the 8th inning in the fifth and deciding game of the series with Inland Empire, but a sac fly in the 8th and three singles in the 9th tied the game up at 3-3 going into extras. Lancaster had the bases loaded with one out in the 13th, and got nothing. They had the bases loaded with no outs in the 14th, and got nothing (Delino DeShields was tagged out trying to score in a foul-out to 3rd). Inland Empire scored the winning run on an RBI double to take the game 4-3 in 15 innings, and the series 3-2.

Kyle Smith: 5IP, 7H/1ER, 5K:1BB
Jordan Jankowski: 0.2IP, 1H, 1BB
Blair Walters: 0.1IP, 1K:1BB
Mike Hauschild: 0.1IP
Kenny Long: 1.1IP, 3H/1ER
Travis Ballew: 2.1IP, 4H/1ER, 3K:0BB
Michael Dimock: 3IP, 5H/0ER, 2K:0BB
Tyson Perez: 2IP, 2H/1ER, 3K:1BB

Carlos Perdomo was 3x7 with an RBI; Delino DeShields (BB, RBI), Nolan Fontana (3BB), Andrew Aplin (2B, 2BB), and Brandon Meredith (2B, BB) had two hits each.

Man of the Match: Nolan Fontana, on base five times (no runs scored).

Series: Inland Empire wins 3-2
Next Up: 2014.

Quad Cities

Quad Cities took a 1-0 lead in the third inning, and gave it back in the 4th, allowing South Bend to score two runs. Jordan Scott hit a game-tying solo home run in the 7th and Rio Ruiz knocked in Danry Vasquez with two outs in the 8th to preserve a 3-2 series opening win. Chris Devenski threw 7IP, allowing 6H/2ER, 9K:0BB; Pat Christensen (0.2IP) and Andrew Walter (1.1IP) threw scoreless outings.

Carlos Correa was 2x3 with a walk and is hitting .455 in the post-season. Danry Vasquez (2B, RBI) and Brian Blasik (2B) each had a hit and a walk. Jordan Scott's lone hit was your game-tying homer.

Man of the Match: Chris Devenski

Series: Quad Cities leads 1-0 (Best-of-Five)
Next Up: Game 2 at South Bend, Thursday 6:05pm Central

Tri-City

Tri-City, facing elimination, took extended a 1-0 lead with a four-run 6th. In the bottom half, they gave those four runs back but held on for a 5-4 series-tying win. Michael Feliz threw 5.2IP, 5H/4R (2ER), 5K:3BB; Tyler Brunnemann threw 1.1IP, 1H/0ER and Gonzalo Sanudo struck out two and allowed two hits in 2IP.

Conrad Gregor was 3x4 with a walk, a home run and 2RBI; James Ramsay, Jack Mayfield (two 2B), Brian Holberton, Jon Kemmber (2B, RBI) and Chan Moon (3B) had two hits each. Ronnie Mitchell was 1x4 with a double and 2RBI.

Man of the Match: Conrad Gregor

Series: Tied 1-1 (Best-of-Three)
Next Up: Game 3 at State College, Thursday 6:05pm Central

PreStros Playoff Report: September 8

Short Version:

OKC lost, 3-0, by Omaha in divisional round

Corpus lost, 3-2, by San Antonio in divisional round

Lancaster tied, 1-1, with Inland Empire

Quad Cities tied, 1-1, with Beloit

Tri-City will begin NYPL Championship series Tuesday

Greeneville lost, 2-0, by Pulaski in championship round

Corpus

In the fifth and deciding game of the series with San Antonio, the Hooks never led. San Antonio got three runs off David Rollins in the top of the 1st and tacked on one more in the top of the 2nd to provide the runs they needed in a 4-3 win. Sloppy defense (three errors, three unearned runs) contributed to the loss. Rollins threw 3IP, 5H/4R (1ER), 2K:0BB, 2WP; Carlos Quevedo allowed 1H/0ER, 2K:0BB in 4IP of relief; Edgar Gonzalez - fresh off the 60-day DL - threw 1IP, 2H/1ER, HBP and Alex Sogard walked one int he 9th. 

Domingo Santana was 3x4 with a double and an outfield assist; Matt Duffy was 2x3. Ronny Torreyes was 1x5 with 2RBI; Drew Muren was 1x3 with a walk. 

Man of the Match: Domingo Santana

Series: San Antonio wins, 3-2

Next Up: 2014

Lancaster

Up 1-0 headed into the third, Inland Empire tacked on four more runs in the top half, only to see Lancaster score four in the bottom of the 3rd. But runs in the 5th and 9th gave Inland Empire a 7-4 win to tie the Best-of-Five series at one game a piece. Colton Cain threw 2.2IP, 5H/5R (4ER), 1K:1BB, 2HR; Mike Hauschild came in for 3.1IP and gave up 2H/1ER. Gera Sanchez threw a perfect 7th inning, and Blair Walters, Jordan Jankowski (ER), and Kenny Long got two outs each.

Nolan Fontana was 2x5 with a triple and 3RBI; MP Cokinos was 2x4. Joe Sclafani (BB) and Chris Epps (3B, 2BB) added your other hits. 

Man of the Match: Nolan Fontana

Series: Tied, 1-1

Next Up: At Inland Empire, Monday at 9:05pm Central

Quad Cities

Beloit got three runs in the bottom of the first and rode it out for a 4-3 series-tying win to force a deciding Game 3. Zach Morton gave up 6H/4ER, 1K:2BB in 1.2IP; Jamaine Cotton threw 3.1IP of no-hit, scoreless relief (4K:1BB); J.D. Osborne allowed a hit and a walk in 2IP and Pat Christensen allowed a hit in 1IP. The Bullpen combined for 6.1IP, 2H/0ER, 6K:2BB.

Tony Kemp (BB, RBI), Jordan Scott (OF assist), and Brian Blasik (RBI) had two hits each; Carlos Correa was 1x3 with two walks, and Teoscar Hernandez was 1x5 with an RBI. The River Bandits left ten men on base and were 3x16 w/RISP.

Man of the Match: Bullpen

Series: Tied 1-1

Next Up: At Beloit, Monday at 6:30pm Central

Tri-City

Will begin NYPL Championship series (Best-of-Three) at home against State College on Tuesday. 

Arizona Fall League participants announced

This afternoon Astros announced the PreStros who will be participating in the 2013 Arizona Fall League.

Pitchers: Jonas Dufek, Matt Heidenreich, Andrew Robinson, and Alex Sogard
Infielders: Japhet Amador, Nolan Fontana, Jonathan Meyer (active only on Wednesdays and Saturdays), and Delino DeShields.

They'll be playing for the Peoria Javelinas, managed by former ValleyCat manager Jim Pankovits. Dave Borkowski will also be a coach for the team, and trainer Bryan Baca will be present, as well.

Baseball America's Best Tools

Baseball America posted their Best Tools List, as voted on by the respective league managers. Here's how it shakes out in relation to Houston:

Pacific Coast League

Best Defensive Shortstop: Jonathan Villar
Best Infield Arm: Jonathan Villar
Most Exciting Player: George Springer

Texas League

Best Batting Prospect: George Springer
Best Power Prospect: George Springer
Best Pitching Prospect: Mike Foltynewicz
Best Fastball: Mike Foltynewicz
Best Breaking Pitch: Mike Foltynewicz
Best Control: David Martinez
Best Defensive Catcher: Rene Garcia
Best Defensive 3B: Jonathan Meyer
Best Infield Arm: Jonathan Meyer
Best Defensive OF: George Springer
Most Exciting Player: George Springer

California League

Best Strike Zone Judgment: Nolan Fontana

Midwest League

Best Breaking Pitch: Lance McCullers
Best Defensive SS: Carlos Correa
Best Infield Arm: Carlos Correa