Times for the 2021 regular season schedule were announced and we get to see George Springer lead off another season with a bomb, this time against the Yankees! Haha that's gonna be rad to see our very own George Spr...wait. Toronto!?
There are only eight games with a first pitch after 8pm Central prior to the All-Star Break (15 from the All-Star Break to the end of the regular season).
*Chandler Rome: Six big questions facing the Astros before Spring Training.
*Jake Kaplan: The Astros have a good front five in their rotation, but what about the depth?
It's worth mentioning the sheer number of pitchers you need to get through a 162-game season. I'm throwing out the 2020 season, much in the same way that I'm throwing out all of the 2020 year, so I went back - I actually did this - and figured out how many different pitchers started at least one game for each MLB team in 2019. The results were interesting.
In the 2019 season, which was coming off a very normal 2018 season (something we're not about to do), the 30 MLB teams combined to need 388 starting pitchers, for an average of 12.93 per team. BUT! The National League needed way fewer pitchers:
Total NL SPs: 165
Avg SPs per team: 11
The National League team with the highest number of pitchers to start at least one game was San Francisco, who needed 16 SPs to get through the season. Four NL teams needed nine or fewer SPs: the Mets, Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals. However:
Total AL SPs: 223
Avg SPs per team: 14.87
The 2019 Toronto Blue Jays led MLB with 21 different pitchers to start at least one game, which feels insane to me. While the NL had four teams with nine or fewer starters over the course of the whole season, the teams with the fewest number of SPs over the course of the season were the Royals and Twins, with ten each. The reasons for this are worth exploring. Due to the DH, AL SPs can go longer in games which may lead to more injuries or recovery stints on the IL. NL SPs get pulled for a pinch-hitter earlier in games, so their pitch counts are lower than AL SPs per start (probably, I may look into this further. But also, I may not.) There are probably reasons I haven't considered yet.
That said: yeah, the Astros' starting rotation looks like it's good. But they might need as many as ten more starters. They needed 14 different SPs in 2019, and a fun game would be to try to name all 14 starting pitchers in the 2019 season. You can find the answers in the comments. Oh wait, I wisely disabled those a while back.
*Former Astros Great Jake Marisnick got a deal with the Cubs for $1.5m guaranteed, possibly $5.5m.
*I'm in the process of reading Nicole Perlroth's book about the ongoing worldwide infosec war (not great for the Ol' Anxiety!) and it has already sent me down a rabbit hole. The Atlantic: Who are the Shadow Brokers?
The Astros beat the Cardinals, 5-4. Lance McCullers faced three batters in his first action since Tommy John Surgery and struck Paul Goldschmidt out, got a groundball out, and allowed a hit in 16 pitches.
Joe Biagini and Joe Smith allowed 3ER in 2IP on two home runs. Ronnie Dawson got a 2-run triple.
McCullers, who was up to 94mph: I'm very happy with it. I felt really good. I executed mostly what I wanted to do. Out of the 16 I threw, really only maybe one or two that I didn't execute kind of the way I was hoping to, pre-pitch. Really happy with just the way I felt overall and being out there again with the guys.
*Alex Bregman has been ill for the last few days and hasn't been working out, but is expected to return to the lineup - which should be full - on Tuesday.
In that link we also find that Nick Tanielu (14th Round - 2014) is trying to draw more walks. He hit .295/.360/.520 in Round Rock in 2019. Tanielu: I had a slow start to the season last year, so I'm trying to get out to a better start. There's some stuff we're working on right now. It's kind of a grind, a long season. Just trying to be ready and not have such bad slumps at times, because last year, I really struggled early in the season. I'm trying to do whatever they ask - play around the infield. If they need me to go to the outfield, I would do that, too. From Opening Day through May 1, 2019 Tanielu hit .213/.304/.350. From May 2 through the end of the season he hit .313/.372/.556.
*The Astros are open to external help for the rotation. James Click: I think right now, based on what I've seen, we're at least seven deep. Hopefully we can get to eight or nine because one day you're at seven and, two days later, you can be at five or four, I obviously lived that with the Rays and so making sure that we are not counting on just five guys all season long is crucial. *FanGraphs: What impacts BABIP for flyball pitchers? *Mookie Betts: World Series or Bust for the Dodgers. *From Blackhawk to Brain Surgery to Bride.
*Wired: How North Korean hackers rob banks around the world.
My kingdom for Jim Crane to come and introduce the new Astros manager as "Busty Daker." Dusty Baker is the 24th manager in Astros' history (Baker is currently one game behind Salty Parker in "Career Astros Games Managed". By the end of May, Baker will rank 19th in Games Managed in Astros History. He signed a 1-year guaranteed deal with a club option or a buyout. Jim Crane: He's a winner, and more importantly, a strong leader who has earned the respect of not only his players, but of virtually everyone that he has touched in baseball.
Whether you believe Jim Crane or not, the hiring of Dusty Baker is about regaining legitimacy.
Baker: I'm extremely thankful for this opportunity. This is a great ballclub with outstanding players that know how to win. I applaud Jim Crane for the leadership he has shown in recent weeks and look forward to working with him and the players to bring a championship to the city of Houston.
Dusty Baker is just 137 wins from becoming the 12th manager to reach 2,000 wins. With this roster, he could do it by September.
As I mentioned on Twitter, and on the Lima Time Time live show on Tuesday night, there is a certain perspective in which Dusty Baker makes sense:
1. They need someone who is well-respected (by the media and General Baseball People, anyway - your complaints were heard loud and clear)...
2. They need someone who has managed in a variety of situations...
3. They need someone who can handle A Circus.
Dusty Baker checks all of those boxes. He managed Barry Bonds for ten years, including Bonds' 2001 73HR season. He has managed in nine separate postseasons, won 95+ games six times, and 103 games once (in his rookie managerial year, when the Giants famously won that many games and didn't even get into the postseason). Baker has managed in San Francisco, Chicago, and Washington, so he has dealt with Bonds, Prior/Wood, Harper, Scherzer, etc. Would I have been equally fine with Buck Showalter? Maybe! Do I wish Espada had gotten the job? Sure!
But this is an extraordinary time for the Astros. They're coming off one of the biggest scandals in recent baseball memory (however common it may have been throughout literally all of baseball history). It's certainly the largest baseball scandal of the Twitter Era, which makes it that much more insufferable. And the fact that Yankee and Dodger Fan is the most aggrieved, it's just a God-awful time. If you're enjoying this era of Astros Baseball, well, you're a psychopath. Every city to which the Astros travel is going to be that city's sports story of the day...Kind of like Bonds was in 2001. Baker managed through that and made it to Game 7 of the World Series in 2002....when the Giants had a 3-2 lead before losing both Games 6 & 7 to Anaheim (and, to be fair, both of those games were in Anaheim).
Columnists across [puts hand across forehead] the land are going to love it because their hand-wringing, and bringing blood out of a turnip, will easily provide that week's Column. But then they have to deal with Dusty Baker, whom pretty much everyone loves except for you, who gets their narrative from FanGraphs. Their hearts will melt. It's an organizational rehab assignment, for a year, and the best-case scenario is that the Astros (and by that I of course mean Us) and Dusty Baker gets their ring in 2020. Winning a World Series like this, in this year, with this much hate, would be delicious, and the scrutiny would cleanse it. Yankee and Dodger Fan would move the goalposts, to be sure. But it would be sweeter than the first (I think).
And for everyone who busts on Baker's postseason record, let's look at it more closely:
1997: Lost in the NLDS 3-0 to the eventual WS Champion Marlins.
2000: Lost in the NLDS 3-1 to the eventual NL Pennant-Winning Mets. Two of those games went to extra innings.
2002: Lost in the World Series 4-3 to Anaheim
2003: Lost in the NLCS 4-3 to the eventual WS Champion Marlins. This is the Bartman series.
2010: Lost in the NLDS 3-0 to Philadelphia. Roy Halladay threw a no-hitter in Game 1. Cole Hamels threw a CGSHO in Game 3.
2012: Lost in the NLDS 3-0 to the eventual WS Champion Giants
2013: Lost in the Wild Card Game to the [squints] Pirates
2016: Lost in the NLDS 3-2 to the Dodgers, who won the Pennant in 2017...
2017: Lost in the NLDS 3-2 to the Cubs, who won the World Series in 2016. Max Scherzer allowed four runs in the 5th Inning of Game 5.
Five-game series are a crapshoot. We almost got to see that firsthand in 2019 against Tampa. Anyhow, Dusty Baker's record in postseason games when facing elimination is 5-9. A.J. Hinch's record in postseason games when facing elimination was 7-3 (I'm willing to admit my math could be fuzzy here). But I'm not busting on A.J. Hinch! Hinch is/was the greatest manager in Astros history, and I'm sad that he's gone, I wish he would come back! I wish he hadn't been fired!
Anyhow, no matter how you feel about it, the 2020 Astros, who won 107 games in 2019 and lost the World Series by going 0-4 at home - something that HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN PROFESSIONAL SPORTS HISTORY I THINK - but is returning every major player except for Gerrit Cole and Robinson Chirinos. Expect a dip, but I - literally me - could absolutely manage this team to 90 wins. They're that good. Now they have Dusty Baker, who will have Joe Espada as his Bench Coach, to help out.
Crane: We're in a spot where we've had some unfortunate things happen and we've owned up to it. We need a strong leader that's been in a lot of different situations and has experience.
Chandler Rome: Dusty Baker gives the Astros a stabilizing presence. Rome: The team is sullied by scandal but still set to contend for a title. Its image and reputation remain in ruins. Players will endure eight months of invective from opposing crowds and players. Baker arrives as a slice of serenity amid acrimony, a man who Crane hopes can galvanize an Astros clubhouse still searching for a way forward.
Rome talked to Ralph Garr: Houstonian, 1974 NL Batting Champ, and former teammate of Dusty: He's the right man for the job. It's not going to be easy for those players. They're going to have to have somebody to lean on. He knows how to treat people, and he cares about his players. He can make adjustments, and he can help the Astros stay competitive.
The press conference to introduce Baker will be at 2pm Central.
*MLB.com predicted the 2020 Astros' rotation would go Verlander-Greinke-McCullers-Urquidy-Peacock.
*The Astros have just one player - Forrest Whitley - on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects list for the first time since 2012. But Bregs, Yordan, and Kyle Tucker are still awfully young so...
*Former Astros Great Gregorio Petit will be Corpus' manager, his first stint at the head of a team. Former Astros Great Wladimir Sutil will manage a team for the first time, at Tri-City.
Well there's some movement on a lot of fronts. Let's try to run it all down.
*Chandler Rome writes that the Astros' moves in July are impacting their December. Hinch: We're trying to be just as creative and just as aggressive at the needs that we have, but you've got to find a dance partner if you're going to make a trade. You've got to find a free agent that's ready to sign. You've got to evaluate your own talent to see who can fill from within.
Luhnow: I can't comment on what our budget is, and that number is something that Jim and I discussed. We're clearly going to be in territory that we've never been in before. But we feel like with the resources available to us, we can accomplish the goals we need to accomplish. Any bigger moves would require some sort of trade to free up the payroll space. But those are things that are also part of our consideration.
*Jim Crane is confident in the Astros' nucleus. Crane: I think anybody can do the math on where we're at. We've got a few holes. We need to sign a catcher, need a few arms - bullpen, maybe a starter. When you look at those ingredients and look at where we're at, more than likely that will put us over the luxury tax.
This would be the first time the Astros have been over $208m - the cutoff for the financial penalty, which would be a 20% tax from $208m-$228m, and a 32% tax from $228m-$248m.
*Ken Rosenthal reports from "sources" that the Astros have considered trading Carlos Correa. Rosenthal: No deal appears close, and the timing might not be right for such a move, considering that most teams are set at shortstop and Correa's trade value is down. But at some point, the Astros will need to make difficult decisions, and Correa might be the odd man out...A trade of Correa might help the Astros address their pitching shortage at a time when they want to sign center fielder George Springer to a long-term deal, sources said.
Let's be clear: the Astros have parameters in place to trade you and I, and the mustache guy, and every single player, should the conversation come up. That the Astros "have considered" trading Correa means absolutely nothing, other than that they have contingency plans on contingency plans.
That said, thesedudes are saying that there is framework in place for a Correa (and possibly Reddick) swap with the Reds for Luis Castilo.
*Chandler Rome has a story on the most uncomfortable 19 minutes of the Winter Meetings - A.J. Hinch's press conference regarding the sign-stealing scandal. Hinch: If I was in your shoes, I would be on the other side of this table, and I would want to ask questions and find answer and get some more information on the investigation and all the allegations and things like that. I know you're probably expecting this, but I can't comment on it. Hinch promised to talk about it...one day.
Related, Yahoo's Tim Brown: Mike Fiers - hero or snitch? He interviewed some people: "Heroic," said one current American League West player. "Takes big nuts to call bull-- on people and stand there and take the heat that follows. I admire that. "Freakin' punk-ass bitch," said a former Astro. "Mike Fiers?" said a current Astro. "Then give back your ring and your World Series share.
In just two seasons, Gerrit Cole left his mark on the Astros' record books. He's 19th all-time in franchise history in fWAR (13.4). He has the highest K/9 among any Astros pitcher in a career (13.13) as well as the highest K/9 in a single season (13.81 in 2019), the 4th-lowest ERA for a starter (2.68), 3rd-lowest FIP for a starter (2.67). Cole is one of four Astros pitchers to strike out 300 batters in a season. He set the Astros' single-season strikeout record in 2019, with 326. Cole is one of ten Astros pitchers to record 20 wins. Hinch, on Tuesday prior to Cole signing with the Yankees: I had a very heartfelt conversation with him following Game 7 of the World Series. I'll cherish his words that he said to me whether he returns to our team or whether he goes on, but those are some big checks being talked about around the league, and I'm not writing them.
We were truly blessed to watch Gerrit Cole pitch in Houston for two seasons and I'll never understand how he didn't get a ring. Cole was eight outs away from winning a ring (in the bullpen) in 2019 and apparently getting those final eight outs was what sent him to New York. A friend told him, "When your primary goal is to win a championship, it doesn't matter where you sleep." Andy Pettitte was instrumental in Gerrit Cole signing with the Yankees.
ESPN's Alden Gonzalez: What will the Angels do now after losing out on Cole? Well, I'm not sure, but I'm guessing the answer is "Waste the prime of Mike Trout's career."
*McTaggart has an inbox in which he says the Astros will want to add one, maybe two starting pitchers, perhaps a starting catcher, and maybe some bullpen depth. He addresses what the rotation could look like, the possibility of trading Reddick to the White Sox, the difficulty of extending George Springer, and Abraham Toro's possibility as the 26th Man (which is a thing starting in 2020). My main concern for this offseason is the Astros avoiding someone getting a lifetime ban from baseball.
A quick note before we get into the Hot Links: Starting at 2:45am on Monday, I am chaperoning a trip of 86 high school students to Manhattan. Pray for me. It also means that these West Coast games won't start until 10pm for me. Flick is taking over the Hot Links from Monday-Thursday. I may be back for the Friday Morning Hot Links, but I may just have to sleep until noon. The Astros had leads of 2-0, 3-2, and 5-4 before getting pushed to extra innings and coming away with a 7-6 win. Errors were absolutely ridiculous. Houston is 58-35. They're 7-6 against East Fort Worth in 2019, with a 6-game lead on Oakland.
*Altuve, on his go-ahead double in the 11th: We lost the first two games here so we were trying to win a game and get some momentum. I just wanted to put the ball in play. When I hit it, I didn't think George was going to score, but what he did was amazing. I hit the ball good, but probably 50 percent or more of the play was on him. I think we won because of him.
Myles Straw redeemed himself after getting picked off 1st right after replacing Michael Brantley as a pinch-runner in the 9th, getting a single that scored Altuve to provide the 7th Astros run. Straw: You want to redeem yourself, and to get out there and get that insurance run...Obviously we needed it...It was awesome.
Hinch: We could easily talk about missed opportunities or mistakes, but we hung in there and I'm proud of our guys for being able to just get through the game and get a win, in a game where we didn't play our best. Perseverance went a long way tonight.
*The Astros are 8-1 in extra-inning games, 17-11 in 1-run games. They were 5-6 in extra innings in 2018, and 24-24 in 1-run games. Since dropping three consecutive one-run games at Cincinnati, Houston is 5-2 in 1-run games.
*Houston has allowed 146 home runs in 2019, 1.57 HR/game. They allowed 152 home runs in 2018, 0.94 HR/game.
*The Rangers got six hits, five of them for extra-bases, and drew three walks. They were 1x8 w/RISP. How this game was so close is beyond me. Errors by Altuve, Bregman, and Springer, I guess. The last time the Astros committed three errors in a single inning was in May 2013.
*Wade Miley threw 6.2IP, 4H/5R (3ER), 5K:1BB, and 3HR allowed. Lower McKinney has hit eight home runs, drawn eight walks, and struck out 29 times in the last two games. It's the 7th time in his career that Miley has allowed three home runs in a game.
*The bullpen threw 4.1IP, 2H/1ER, 7K:2BB. Osuna allowed 2H/1ER, 0K:1BB in the 11th. Osuna: It was a tough inning. I got up [in the bullpen] three or four times before that inning. The last three hitters, I was running out of gas. I was grinding and thank God I got the job done.
*Jose Altuve was 4x6. It's his 2nd 4-hit game of the season, and his 2nd 4-hit game in July. Since returning from the IL Altuve is hitting .306/.326/.459. He has 30 4-hit games in his career, one more than Babe Ruth. Bregman, on Altuve: He's battling every single day and he's a great leader for this team.
*Alex Bregman returned to the lineup after taking a 98.5mph grounder off the chin. I hit my little toe on the side of the dishwasher and didn't run for a week. Bregs was 2x5 with a walk and a solo home run, his 24th of the year. It's his 82nd career home run, nine of them have come against the Rangers (tied with Oakland for most against an opponent), six of them at Pizza Oven Park.
*Tyler White got his 10th 3K game of the season, going 0x5.
*Brad Peacock is on track to be activated for Monday's game at Anaheim.
*Carlos Correa and Aledmys Diaz will begin rehab starts on Monday for Round Rock. Hinch, on Correa: He's more likely, given the schedule, to stick in Triple-A longer on rehab, and we're excited to get him into games as well. He's got a little longer on rehab projection based on the injury and how long he did virtually nothing in terms of baseball.
*The Chron's Hunter Atkins, on Gerrit Cole regaining his rhythm. Hinch: He was trying to be too disruptive with timing. He would change his delivery a little bit. He's got a handle on that better now, where he can disrupt the timing of the hitter a little bit without negatively impacting his pitches.
Here's the rotation for 2020 as contracts stand right this minute:
SP1: Justin Verlander
SP2: Lance McCullers, Jr.
SP3: Brad Peacock
That's it. That's the entire rotation that is currently under contract for 2020. Cole, Miley, and McHugh are free agents at the end of this season. Maybe the Astros have a trade or two up their sleeve in the next 17 days to shore that up, but Corbin Martin is out for most of next season. Forrest Whitley's 2019 hasn't gone exactly as expected. Neither has Framber Valdez and Cionel Perez and Jose Urquidy's. J.B. Bukauskas has a 6.81 at Double-A Corpus.
The Astros have a committed payroll of $121.4m for 2020 as of right now. That's a reduction of $37.1m from 2019 payroll. We'll do some payroll shenanigans later, but right now I don't know how the Astros can afford to not keep Gerrit Cole, if they're going to keep this window open. I have zero issue with using my Astros County Official Extremely Limited Megaphone to yell that not re-signing Charlie Morton as a 2-year insurance policy was freaking stupid, especially after what we've seen so far this season. Even if the front office had concerns over his shoulder, it was silly to think that you could lose 500IP from 2018 (Keuchel, Morton, McCullers) and not hit a significant road bump.
While you can reasonably assume the Astros will win the AL West and the ALDS, you can no longer assume that a World Series Championship, let alone an AL Pennant, will happen. That is, of course, if you ever assumed those things would happen. I did.
*Jonathan Lucroy: The last thing I remember, I was kind of inching my way up the line and reaching for the baseball. The first thing I remember after that is when they put me on the golf cart. He knocked me out.
*Cristian Javier threw 3IP, 1H/0ER, 6K:0BB in a 7-6 extra-innings Corpus loss to Midland. Seth Beer was 0x3 with 3BB. Granden Goetzmann was 3x5 with a walk and 3RBI.
*The Red Sox sent two minor-leaguers to Baltimore for Andrew Cashner. The two minor-leaguers were 17-year old IF Noelberth Romero, who has a .700 OPS in the Dominican Summer League, and OF Elio Prado, a 17-year old with an .818 OPS for the same team. These are notes for making comps for future trades. Cashner has a 1.8 fWAR this season with a 3.83 ERA belied by a 4.25 FIP and a 4.88 xFIP. Orioles starting pitchers have recorded 21 wins, Cashner has nine of them.
*Minnesota's Max Kepler's last 6 PAs vs. Tyler Bauer:
Top 4th, July 13: Strikeout
Top 3rd, July 13: Home run
Top 1st, July 13: Home run
Top 7th, June 6: Home run
Top 3rd, June 6: Home run
Top 1st, June 6: Home run
Well that was...disappointing. Odd that it's the beginning of July and the Astros and Angels have only played three times, counting last night. Houston lost the opener of a home series for the first time since April 25, dropping the game 5-4 to Anaheim. The Astros are 55-33 with a 6.5-game lead on Oakland. There are two games remaining before the All-Star Break.
*The Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Angels broke a seven-game losing streak to Houston dating back to August 31, 2018.
*Justin Verlander stays giving up bombs. Verlander threw 7IP, 7H/4ER, 6K:1BB, 3HR allowed. That's 26 home runs allowed by Verlander in 2019. He has walked 27 batters. It's the 4th time he has allowed 3HR in a start - two have come against Anaheim, three have been since June 12. Angels manager Brad Ausmus, on Verlander: I've seen Verlander firsthand, saw him for years. Great competitor, great pitcher and you know you're in for a battle. With that being said, I haven't come across any pitcher who's pitched in the big leagues for any length of time who's unbeatable. You will find most of them have losses. Really, the frame of mind is, yeah, it's going to be tough but nobody is unbeatable.
FACT CHECK: Brad Ausmus is correct. Most of the pitchers in MLB history do, in fact, have losses.
Verlander's current 18.7% HR/FB rate is insane, obliterating his previous career high of 11.5% in 2017. Only eight pitchers in MLB have a higher HR/FB (rate at which fly balls end up leaving the yard) rate. Gerrit Cole is 8th, at 19.1%. Verlander and Cole have a combined 5.3 fWAR. The other seven pitchers have a combined 4.8 fWAR.
Verlander: I've got to do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard. It's been a common theme here all year really, but really the last four or five starts. I've got to figure out a way to combat this thing.
Hinch: He's a fly-ball pitcher, and he lives at the top of the zone. They did a good job of beating him to the spot a couple of times above the zone. There's no secret where he's going to pitch. They did a good job of having a game plan against him and executed against the high fastball...JV was all over the strike zone. He commanded the ball pretty well. You look up and you don't understand how with that stuff and that command, how the night turned for him.
McTaggart notes that Verlander's 2.98 ERA is the lowest first-half ERA of his career.
.168/.221/.386 with 26 Home Runs would be a very strange season statline for a hitter.
That's what MLB has done against Justin Verlander this season.
*Hector Rondon allowed an 8th Inning homer to Mike Trout to put the Angels up 5-2.
*Michael Brantley went 4x4 with two doubles and a home run. He had four of the Astros' six hits. It's the 13th 4-hit game of Brantley's career and the first since May 3, 2018. It's just the 14th time this season that any MLB player has had three extra-base hits and only one RBI. Jack Mayfield and Yuli Gurriel have also done it this year. That has happened 35 times in franchise history, the last being Martin Maldonado (who doubled, tripled, and homered in the same game on August 19, 2018).
And the reason he only had one RBI is because the top three of Springer-Altuve-Bregman were a combined 0x11 with 2BB.
*Yuli Gurriel hit his 12th home run, going 1x4 with 3RBI. In his last 15 games Gurriel is hitting .361/.400/.787 with more home runs (7) than strikeouts (5).
*Hinch is looking at putting Wade Miley in between Verlander and Cole in the rotation. Hinch: What order that is is going to be determined. It's going to be different. It's not going to be full forward as we expected. There's a couple of decisions that we have to make. I have the order in pencil.
I'm penciling in Max Scherzer in between Verlander and Cole, so let's see how that pans out.
Jake Kaplan says that's all well and good but the biggest question coming out of the All-Star Break: Who is SP5?
*Rough news as Corbin Martin had Tommy John Surgery on Wednesday. He'll obviously miss the rest of 2019 and most of 2020, as well. Hinch: I care about the player. We can talk all you want about the depth and how important he is to the organization, and what it does to our pitching. But the reality is, we need to focus on him. This is a tough injury and one we know all too well with [Lance McCullers Jr.], watching him go through rehab every day.
Luhnow: Martin's injury could make acquiring a pitcher with an extra year of control "more appealing."
*Here's a fantastic story from Chandler Rome about how Yordan Alvarez became an Astro, and how Alvarez was the only one in Cuba who knew the Gurriels were defecting.
*Last summer, the Astros almost traded Derek Fisher for Detroit's Nick Castellanos. So between those talks and the Verlander trade, Houston and Detroit know each other's systems pretty well.
*Phillies OF Odubel Herrera was suspended for the remainder of the 2019 season as a result of violating the league's domestic violence policy. MLB specifically said that Herrera was ineligible for the postseason, which was not the case for Roberto Osuna in 2018.
I'm giving Flick a break this long weekend, so he can actually rest before he has to go through Finals.
*The Astros were off last night. If you count Opening Day, the Astros are 4-0 following an off-day in 2019.
*The Astros were off April 11, 15, and 18. Then they play 26 games in 27 days. A.J. Hinch talks about carrying an extra position player during this random stretch of off-days.
*Jake Kaplan says McHugh/Miley/Peacock are the steadiness the rotation needs after an off-season of turnover.
*The Astros will have the 3rd-lowest draft pool in the 2019 Amateur Draft, at $5,355,100.
*After 14 road games to start 2019, it was finally the home opener in Fayetteville at Segra Stadium. They lost, 7-5. Seth Beer hit his 2nd home run of the season, as did 2017 39th Round pick Colton Shaver.
*Yordan Alvarez is hitting .318/.455/.841. Kyle Tucker is hitting .109/.180/.217. Jonathan Mayo answers a question about Alvarez replacing Tucker on the prospect list. Alvarez is 21, Tucker is 22. We're lucky to have them both.
*Mike Rosenbaum and Jim Callis mention the possibility that J.B. Bukauskas is the Astros' closer of the future. Coincidentally, last night Bukauskas started for Corpus, throwing 2.1IP, 3H/6ER, 1K:5BB.
Bukauskas, 2019: Three starts, 8IP, 16H/17ER, 7K:12BB. 19.13 ERA / 3.50 WHIP. He has thrown 211 pitches, 113 for strikes (53.6%).
*Noted Boras Shill Jon Heyman reports that Dallas Keuchel would be interested in a 1-year deal to reset his value, and mentions the Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Astros as a potential destination.
You ever do something almost every single day (I use "almost" because: thanks, Flick) for over ten years, wake up and then just...forget to do it? Maybe it's the pace of the offseason, but that's what happened on Tuesday with the Hot Links. Now, keep in mind that I'm now exactly 30 days away from this little half-marathon for which I've been training pretty hard for three months. I was more focused on getting to the gym when they opened. Anyhow, the Skip Days shouldn't be a recurring theme. Sorry.
*If you're into Spring Training box scores, here's the one from the 14-8 loss to the Nationals yesterday.
-Kyle Tucker: 1x3, 2B, RBI
-The Astros got five doubles on the day.
None of this really matters, until it does.
*Big news of the day was that the SP5 field narrowed slightly as word came out that Josh Big Flames James has a strained quad and is pretty much out of the running. That's good news for Brad F. Peacock, and Framber Valdez. Hinch: What was already a slow spring for him will now turn a little bit slower. He'll now not pitch for a little bit. Hinch was clear that the door does not open a little wider for Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, or J.B. Bukauskas. Here's Jake Kaplan on what it means for the rotation.
*Alex Bregman is expected to play Saturday, about seven weeks removed from elbow cleaning surgery. Also in that link, Hinch is expected to carry 13 position players and 12 pitchers to open the season. Chandler Rome notes that four early off-days - and that Tony Kemp and Tyler White are out of options - factor into the decision.
*Jenny Dial Creech: The little things add up to a big payoff in 2019 for A.J. Hinch.
*Get your Nolan Ryan-in-Express-Gear (the team, not the skinny dude fashion shop) bobblehead on May 11 against Oklahoma City. Really missed an opportunity to have that promo against Nashville, the Rangers' PCL affiliate, the following Saturday.
*Well this is unfortunate: Jim Crane's ex-wife got extremely agitated at the sight of an interracial couple's family pictures.
*Hinch named the starting rotation for the first slate of Spring Training games.
Saturday: Framber Valdez
Sunday: Rogelio Armenteros
Monday: Justin Verlander
Tuesday: Gerrit Cole
Wednesday: Wade Miley/Collin McHugh
Thursday: Brad Peacock
*Jake Kaplan has a great story about Abraham Toro, the Astros' French-Canadian-Venezuelan prospect. Forrest Whitley, on Toro: He is like the most underrated prospect in our system. There are a few guys who don't get as much attention as they deserve and I feel like he's the main one.
*
You asked and we listened! Here is our 2019 fauxback jersey with a nod to the @astros rainbow pattern and all the orange! 😍 #20STROng
Good morning. Pitchers and Catcher(s) report in eleven days. It is 22 days until the first Spring Training game, and 54 days until Opening Day.
*I'm 39 today. Last year of my 30s, and IT IS NOT GOING VERY WELL.
At Age 39 Barry Bonds (2004) hit .362/.609/.812 (for a career-high 1.422 OPS) with 120 intentional walks. The 2018 Astros were intentionally walked 19 times...combined. 75 of Bonds' 135 hits in 2004 were for extra-bases. He struck out 41 times and walked 232 times...in one season. I'mma Barry Bonds this year.
*Wade Miley was introduced at a press conference yesterday to officially announce his 1yr/$4.5m deal (with an additional $500K in incentive possibilities). What are those incentives? Ken Rosenthal has them:
$100,000 for each of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 starts OR $100,000 for each of 15, 30, 45, 55, and 60 appearances in relief.
There is simply no way that today is not Friday, or March. It is 13 days until Pitchers & Catcher(s) Report.
*Today is Jackie Robinson's 100th birthday. Happy birthday, Jackie.
*As the rotation stands today, Houston ranks 2nd in MLB in terms of fastball velocity behind Tampa, who added St. Charles F. Morton giving the Rays the nod.
*J.B. Bukauskas has a 98mph fastball but it's his slider that is considered the best of the 2019 Top 100 Prospects. Josh James and Forrest Whitley got an honorable mention for best changeup.
*Oooooh check out Reid Ryan throwing some shade at the Rangers' farm system as he talked with Round Rock fans about the 2019 season. Ryan: We know these guys are going to be taken care of when they come here. It's great for the Astros brand and the Express brand. We have some real talent in the system, and people are going to see some really good baseball players.
Triple-A record (win%) since the beginning of the 2011 season, when the Express flipped to Arlington: Houston: 618-523 (.542)
Arlington: 579-560 (.508)
*Astros minor-league pitcher Jairo Solis got himself some Tommy John surgery and won't be back until 2020. Solis, who turned 19 last month, has a 3.05 ERA / 1.37 WHIP in 112IP (120K:53BB) in his two-year pro career. He threw 50.2IP for Quad Cities in 2018 before tearing his UCL.
*Doug Brocail's history will benefit him as Baltimore's pitching coach.
*Former Astros Great J.B. Shuck has signed a minor-league deal with Pittsburgh. Only the real Astros fans remember when the Astros trotted out:
J.A. Happ
J.B. Shuck
J.C. Chasez
J.D. Martinez
on a daily basis
*Kacy Clemens and his godbrother are suing the Concrete Cowboy after they say the bouncer assaulted them. Baseball, please hurry.
*Chicago lit its train tracks on fire to prevent them from contracting in the cold. I'm actually perfectly fine with either lighting the Marlins on fire, or contracting them in the cold.
Good morning. Pitchers and catchers report in 15 days.
*Take a minute to think of the families and friends of the officers killed/injured in yesterday's shooting in Southeast Houston.
*I missed this from a few days ago, but Alex Bregman is straight up predicting a dynasty for the Astros. Bregs: The day they gave us the ring, I put it in my closet and I haven't looked at it because I want another one. I'll put the second one away after we win the third. The Astros are going to be a dynasty.
*The Red Sox lead FanDuel's odds for a 2019 World Series title at +550, but the Astros are right behind at +600. And they haven't even landed Bryce Harper yet! Odds around the AL West:
*Andy Langer's National Podcast of Texas (from Texas Monthly) sits down with Nolan and Reid Ryan to discuss payroll, MLB in San Antonio, and how MLB has (or hasn't) changed since Nolan played.
*The Tri-City ValleyCats' (Astros' NYPL team) 27-year old new manager Ozney Guillen is ready to carve out his own path. The Albany Times-Union: Even Ozney Guillen acknowledged he was "shocked" the Astros decided to take a chance on him. He has never coached or managed. He just finished playing after a five-year career spent as an infielder and outfielder with several independent minor league franchises..."I've never been part of the Astros organization," Guillen said. "I've never played affiliated ball and it just showed me that hard work, and when you do things right, things will go the right way... ...Guillen interviewed with Astros director of player development Pete Putila, who says he prefers a younger, less-experienced candidate who can be taught the Houston way of instructing players.
*Rays manager and Former Astros Great Kevin Cash on Rays starting pitcher and Former Astros Great Charlie F. Morton: We want Charlie to come in and go about his leadership, his way. Certainly he's going to be looked upon by our young pitchers and young players for that matter - and our staff. He played for a pretty good team the last couple of years...and I'll pick his brain a lot.
*Here's a fantastic article in The Athletic from John Lott about Ken Giles and how he has changed since landing in Toronto. Giles: I needed to work on the mental part of my game. When you're young, you think you know everything. People say that as you get older, you get wiser, and you try new things. You need to broaden your horizon a little bit and reach out to other people. I just got to the point where I got tired of doing everything myself.
*Chris Nunn, who played for Corpus, Fresno, and the Independent League's St. Paul Saints in 2018, has signed with the Ramgers after getting some exposure thanks to the inimitable Rob Friendman aka @PitchingNinja. It's a cool story. Nunn signed the day after his mom underwent her first chemo treatment for breast cancer, and will likely start the season at Triple-A in his hometown of Nashville.
Note: I pitched this to The Athletic, they passed, and so it's here.
---
The 2018 Astros’ rotation was charmed. In addition to
enjoying a rotation of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie
Morton, and Lance McCullers, Jr., they were all, for the most part, healthy. A.J. Hinch didn’t have to pencil in a sixth
starter until the 126th game of the season, when Brad Peacock got
the start against Seattle on
August 21.
Houston needed 499.2 innings out of their bullpen in 2018,
and if that sounds low to you, you’re absolutely right. Here are 2018’s
bullpens, organized by the number of innings pitched:
Team
Bullpen Innings, 2018
Bullpen fWAR
Cleveland
463.2
0.4
Houston
499.2
8.1
Colorado
520.1
3.9
Washington
528.2
0.4
Arizona
541.1
2.0
Kansas City
542.2
-2.2
Chicago White Sox
545.1
4.3
New York Mets
546.1
-0.6
Pittsburgh
546.2
3.5
Atlanta
557.0
3.0
Seattle
557.1
5.1
St. Louis
565.2
0.5
Philadelphia
569.1
4.1
San Francisco
570.2
5.0
Detroit
579.2
2.1
Los Angeles Dodgers
581.1
3.1
Texas
585.0
3.9
Boston
587.1
4.9
Chicago Cubs
588.1
4.0
Toronto
594.1
2.3
New York Yankees
594.2
9.7
Baltimore
597.1
2.1
Cincinnati
602.1
1.7
Miami
606.1
-2.1
Minnesota
610.1
3.0
Milwaukee
614.0
7.0
Anaheim
632.0
2.2
San Diego
635.0
8.7
Oakland
641.1
5.7
Tampa Bay
824.1
5.6
You read that right: Tampa Bay’s bullpen got 549 more outs
than the 2nd-most used bullpen in the Majors. And it’s not as though
more innings from your bullpen disqualifies you from the postseason: three of
the ten most-used bullpens in 2018 made the playoffs: Oakland, Milwaukee, and
New York, while the Rays won 90 games in a division with two 100-game winners.
That said, given the departures and injuries among the
Astros’ pitching staff this offseason, there are some holes to fill, or at least
some fingers to place firmly in the dam for a while. The Astros will not have
Charlie Morton in the rotation, as CFM officially signed his 2yr/$30m deal with
Tampa this week. Dallas Keuchel is on the market and, though a return to
Houston is certainly within the realm of possibility, the most-wise course of
action may be to consider him gone. Lance McCullers is in the process of
recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be out until 2019.
Those three pitchers threw exactly 500 innings in 2018. It
is very easy to see a scenario in which Collin McHugh rejoins the rotation
after getting squeezed out by Gerrit Cole in 2018. McHugh threw 72.1IP in 2018
in the bullpen after being held by injuries to 63.1IP in 2017. From 2014-2016,
however, McHugh threw 543IP – including a 203.2IP campaign in a breakout 2015
season.
IF (All Caps intended) McHugh can throw 200IP, that still
leaves 300IP unaccounted for in the rotation. Assuming that the Astros’
rotation retreats from throwing the 2nd-most innings in MLB in 2018,
that leaves more innings for the bullpen.
Jake Kaplan projected
the Astros’ bullpen last week following Joe Smith’s injury and says the
bullpen, as currently constructed, looks as follows: Roberto Osuna, Ryan
Pressly, Hector Rondon, Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, Josh James or Framber
Valdez, and the ever-popular Player To Be Named Later.
The above list’s relievers threw a combined 280.1IP.
Granted, there are some caveatsRoberto Osuna’s 38IP were impacted by his
75-game suspension for assaulting his girlfriend. Chris Devenski threw 2IP between July 27 and
September 4, missing 33 games with a hamstring injury.
It’s conceivable that both could add 30IP to their workload
in 2018 – injuries and future crimes notwithstanding. Let’s do a theoretical
exercise and assume they do exactly that, bringing the above list’s workload to
340.1IP. That leaves 159 best-case scenario innings to whoever loses between
Josh James and Framber Valdez, and two other options should, as Kaplan
previously noted, A.J. Hinch goes with his customary eight-man bullpen.
Will it be Cionel Perez? With Tony Sipp’s presumed
departure, Perez would – under this thought exercise – be the only lefty in the
Astros’ entire 13-man pitching staff. Someone else could provide some internal
bullpen help: Dean Deetz, for instance, who tested positive for a substance
with a lot of vowels that doesn’t sound like it’s terribly helpful. Could he
step in? What about a free agent?
MLBTradeRumors
dot com projects the Astros to sign LHP Zach Britton to a 3yr/$33m deal. Britton
has long beenrumoredasanAstros’
target,
so might the Astros actually get their man? Britton, who threw 65+ IP in each
of his 2014-16 campaigns has been held to a total of 78 innings (with 39 walks)
over the last two years. Want to go full-circle? Zach Britton underwent surgery
for a ruptured Achilles about this time last year (the same as Joe Smith) and
made his season debut on June 12, and he had scoreless outings in 14 of his 16
games before getting traded to the Yankees.
Joe Smith’s recovery could go well enough to follow
Britton’s timeline. Britton was in his Age 30 season in 2018, while Smith was
in his Age 34 season. Things hurt more when you’re 34 as opposed to 30. But
maybe not for, like, professional athletes.
A timeline that involves Smith throwing 30 innings as
opposed to 50-60 would leave 120-ish innings to two relievers. Maybe that’s a
low enough number for the Astros to introduce Triple-A starters Rogelio
Armenteros (added to the 40-Man Roster in November specifically to avoid him
being selected in the Rule 5 draft), or even newly-recovered-from-Tommy John
surgery Brady Rodgers, the Astros’ 2012 3rd Round pick.
Ultimately, how the Astros determine who takes the innings
they’ve lost could determine if they make it back to the ALCS for a third
straight season. And with the last contracted year of Verlander and Cole
beginning in a few months, they may decide to strike.
