Survivor: Kissimmee update

There were 63 players in camp at the start of Spring Training. Let's see where we are now:

Pitchers

Matt Albers, Mark Appel*, Anthony Bass, Jake Buchanan*, Kevin Chapman, Jose Cisnero, Paul Clemens, Jarred Cosart, Jesse Crain, Luis Cruz, Rhiner Cruz*, Jorge De Leon*, Bobby Doran*, Darin Downs, Scott Feldman, Josh Fields, Mike Foltynewicz*, Lucas Harrell, Dallas Keuchel, Chia-Jen Lo, Collin McHugh, David Martinez, Peter Moylan*, Brett Oberholtzer, Rudy Owens, Brad Peacock, Chad Qualls, Jason Stoffel*, Nick Tropeano*, Raul Valdes, Alex White, Jerome Williams, Asher Wojciechowski, Josh Zeid

Catchers

Jason Castro, Carlos Corporan, Rene Garcia*, Tyler Heineman*, Ryan McCurdy*, Carlos Perez*, Max Stassi

Infielders

Jose Altuve, Japhet Amador*, Chris Carter, Carlos Correa*, Matt Dominguez, Marwin Gonzalez, Jesus Guzman, Cesar Izturis*, Jonathan Meyer*, Gregorio Petit*, Jon Singleton, Ronald Torreyes*, Jonathan Villar

Outfielders

Adron Chambers*, Delino DeShields*, Dexter Fowler, Robbie Grossman, Leo Heras*, L.J. Hoes, Marc Krauss, J.D. Martinez*, George Springer*, Preston Tucker*

* - Non-roster invitees

The Third Cut Is As Deep As The First

Ten more cuts have been made this morning and, while the rotation is set, it seems as though one decision is clear. First, the ten players optioned or reassigned:

OF Robbie Grossman
OF Jimmy Paredes
OF Che-Hsuan Lin
SS Jonathan Villar
C Carlos Perez
P Paul Clemens
P Dallas Keuchel
P C.J. Fick
P Josh Zeid
P Sergio Escalona

So. The name that may stand out to you is Dallas Keuchel, meaning that my post on the rotation was valid for approximately 23 hours.

With Keuchel being optioned to minor-league camp, that leaves Erik Bedard as the (current) lone LHP option for the rotation, which would indicate that he's in the rotation.

39 players are still in camp, and if you'll allow me to pull up the calculator accessory, it means 14 still need to go. We'll talk about that this afternoon.

Luhnow:

"A lot of these guys we're sending out today have a bright future in our organization, and they know they'll be back. They need to go down and get regular work and go to their respective Minor League locations and show us what they can do. We know the 25 we start with are not the 25 we're going to have all year."

The Second Cut is also the deepest

The Astros have optioned four pitchers: Jose Cisnero, Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, and Ross Seaton to minor-league camp, and the roster is currently at 49.

Again, no real surprises. While we've heard for some time that Cosart will not be in the bullpen and will develop as a starter to begin the year, this is confirmation that the Astros are sticking with that plan. Later we'll take a look at the Bubble Players fighting for those 25 spots.

Lineup posted for Saturday's ST1

New broadcaster Robert Ford (who actually is quite entertaining on Twitter) posted the lineup card for the first 2013 Astros Spring Training game. Your lineup:

1. Tyler Greene - SS

2. Marwin Gonzalez - 2B

3. Justin Maxwell - CF

4. Chris Carter - 1B

5. Fernando Martinez - LF

6. Nate Freiman - DH

7. Matt Dominguez - 3B

8. Carlos Corporan - C

9. Justin Trevor Crowe - RF (I went to college with a "Justin Crowe")

Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace, and Carlos Pena are all fine - apparently it's just a scheduled Rest Day for all three. 

Survivor: Kissimmee - Feb 18

Totally lost track of the days, so here are your Monday morning updates from Kissimmee.

9:30am: It is revealed that Axel from The Walking Dead was once a scout for the Astros.

8:47am: Bo Porter says Chris Carter has the potential to be a "game-changer."

8:39am: Bud Norris has had a death in the family, and will fly back to California today.

7:41am: Hector Ambriz (ankle) is out of his protective boot today, and will make some throws.

7:29am: Roger Clemens is in camp! (Longer article here)

12:24am: Your ST1 starter on Saturday against Philadelphia will be Lucas Harrell, with Bud Norris getting the ST2 start on Sunday.

From what looks like it was posted a few days ago, listen to this Sirius XM interview with Jeff Luhnow on the Astros.

Survivor: Kissimmee - Day 5

Real-time (sort of) updates for the 5th day of Spring Training.

11:11am: Crane and Postolos will address the team before workouts tomorrow.

9:33am: "Put Your Butts Safely Here...or You're Out"

9:31am: An air-horn is going off in Bo Porter's office.

8:40am: The Astros will use Spring Training to evaluate Chris Carter in LF.

8:39am: "Ideally," Bo Porter says, Tyler Greene will turn into an Ian Desmond-type player.

8:27am: Hector Ambriz (ankle) walking around on crutches in a walking boot.

8:24am: Max Stassi is out again for practice today (Oblique)

7:25am: Rain in Kissimmee means only side bullpens today.

6:51am: Chris Carter shows up to camp (on-time, mind you, just after almost everybody else).

Survivor: Kissimmee - Day 2

And here is your continually updated news from Spring Training Day 2, also known as "Survivor: Kissimmee."

12:11pm: Brian McTaggart checks in with bullpen updates, quotes from Brocail. Also notice what is hopefully a typo in "Plantar Fascistic." Feet are fascists.

11:24am: Ankiel takes Porter to RF in batting practice. Porter calls it foul.

11:22am: Porter says the mound celebration was improvised, but he wants the team shaking hands more often.

11:17am: Alex White threw well today.

10:58am: When workout ended, players got in a line and shook hands, post-game style. Strange.

10:32am: All players have reported to camp except for Chris Carter, Carlos Perez, and Jose Martinez. Both Perez and Martinez are currently having visa issues. There is no excuse for Chris Carter.

10:18am: Astros engage in "fake, joyous" mound celebration following successful cover drill.

9:15am: Porter: "Everything is new. Let's go and compete." And Clemens will be in Kissimmee on Sunday. 

8:39am: Porter and Luhnow addressed the team prior to the first official workout.

8:15am: Jason Castro calls 2013 his "biggest year yet."

8:06am: Jose Veras isn't going to commit to being the closer - he'll let the Astros make that call.

7:54am: Rick Ankiel remembers he doesn't play for the Cardinals, shows up in Kissimmee. Was also talking to Reds and Giants.

7:46am: Fernando Martinez will not participate in the World Baseball Classic.

7:34am: Erik Bedard says he'll do everything he can to make the team, but if it doesn't work out, he'll "move on." He also says he was talking to the Blue Jays before signing with Houston.

6:00am: Bud Norris is not a morning person.

Survivor: Kissimmee - Starting Rotation

The Astros will have 852 players* in camp, vying for the 25-man roster on Opening Day. Let Astros County help you make sense of it. (* - Approximately). Today, we start with the starting rotation, for starters.

The Locksmiths

Wandy Rodriguez

Wandy just might be the only player making more than $1m who will actually be worth his salary. He'll make $10m in 2012, and while his K/9 rate has declined in each of the last four seasons (8.58, 8.45, 8.22, 7.82) and his BB/9 has increased in each of the last three (2.76, 3.14, 3.25), he's still the number one starter - provided he doesn't get traded before Opening Day. From 2009-11, Wandy is 36-35 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 118 ERA+, and a 2.69 K:BB ratio.

Brett Myers

Brett Myers is lucky that Ed Wade loves his Phillies. Myers certainly wasn't as bad as his 2009 indicated (-0.6 WAR, 6.14 FIP), but it was pretty clear that he wasn't as good as his 2010 indicated (4.0 WAR, and his first sub-4.00 FIP since 2007). Still, Myers got his deal ($11m in 2012, $10m in 2013 with $3m buyout). He'll make the rotation, mainly because other teams are scared of him and won't want to take on his contract.

If there's reason for optimism, it's that Myers will likely throw 200+ IP (439.2IP in 2010-11), and his WHIP was still lower than his 2008-09 seasons in Philly. His ERA+ (85) was the lowest it had been since 2004, but Myers' role will likely be to eat up innings and let the younger guys develop.

Bud Norris

The great thing about Bud Norris is that he won't be a free agent until 2016, so there's absolutely no reason to do anything other than give him the ball every five days. There's a very real possibility that Norris is the ace of the staff, after his 2011 in which he had an ERA+ of 100 (but still only went 6-11), but Norris' walks were down from 4.5 per 9inn in 2010 to 3.4 in 2011. His Ks went down, but he cut his walks dramatically enough to raise his K:BB ratio from 2.05 to 2.51. FanGraphs lists his value at $8m, and for less than $500K/year, he's a steal.

The Lunatic Fringe

J.A. Happ

Happ had a miserable 2011. I was getting ready to be all, "10.2% OF HIS FLYBALLS WERE HOMERS!!!" And then I saw that Wandy, Myers, and Norris all had higher HR/FB rates than Happ, so that's out. But still, Happ had a miserable 2011. He's another one of those guys who probably wasn't ever as good as his numbers indicated - his ERA outperformed his xFIP by 0.89, 1.40, and 1.23 from 2008-10, respectively. It all just sort of caught up with him in 2011. Walks contributed to it - he walked 4.78 batters per nine innings in 2011, as did his lower groundball rate (33% - his lowest since 2008), and his BABIP regulated itself. And by "regulated itself," I mean that it was normal, for once, with a .297 BABIP in 2011 (after .266, .266, and .262 from 08-10). If he has a miserable spring it could turn out that he heads to OKC - as he did for three starts in 2011.

Jordan Lyles

You know all about Jordan Lyles, the 21-year old phenom, and the former prize of the Astros' farm system. But the thing is, he is only 21 years old. Still, he only walked 2.49 batter per nine in 2011 (striking out 6.41 per nine). While he had a horrific ERA (5.36), his FIP was 4.53, and his xFIP was an even better 4.13. Was he "unlucky"? His BABIP was .307 at the ML level, but he's been pretty unlucky his entire professional career - only having part of one season (low-A in 2008) with a BABIP under .315. Still, it's feasible to think the Astros will let Lyles go back to OKC in 2012 for more innings.

Livan Hernandez

You pretty much know what you're gonna get with Hernandez: 170-200IP of serviceable starting pitching. If he fares well in Spring, and someone else gets hurt or completely nuts it, Hernandez is probably in the rotation.

Zach Duke

This was an interesting one. A non-roster invitee like Hernandez, Duke could be a sleeper after an injury-plagued 2011. He's a lefty ground-ball pitcher who doesn't get strikeouts, or walk many batters. At the end of 2010, after Duke had been DFAed by the Pirates, FanGraphs said that xFIP is probably a better gauge of Duke's abilities. Should that be the case, Duke is a high-contact pitcher with an ERA in the 4.20-4.30 range, not the ~5.00 ERA pitcher he's been over the past two seasons (with a BABIP of .338 and .339, respectively). If it doesn't work out for Duke in the rotation, he could turn into a lefty specialist out of the pen. Or he could not play for the Astros.

Kyle Weiland

Acquired from the Red Sox with Jed Lowrie for Mark Melancon, the 25-year old Weiland could be an intriguing SP4 for the Astros. Weiland's fastball sat at 92.5mph (according to FanGraphs) in 2011, which would put him right there with Norris as the hardest thrower in the rotation. He's somewhat of an unknown - with his cup of coffee in 2011 getting spilled down his chest, scalding his flesh. In his first season at Triple-A Pawtucket (24 starts) in 2011, he had a 3.58 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with a 2.29 K:BB ratio and 3.9 BB per nine innings (8.8 K/9 in 2011). Still, he won't be 26 until September and will be shooting for just his 2nd stint in the Majors.

The Outsiders

Aneury Rodriguez

The Aneurysm, as we like to call him, is on the outside looking in because we don't know what role he'll have in 2012. The former Rule 5 pick had to stay on the 25-man roster in 2011, or he'd be sent back to the Rays, so he would start for a while, then go back to the bullpen, then make a spot start. He'll be 24 all season long and it's possible that, if the rotation is in his future, he could spend some time in OKC until a rotation spot opens up. As a starter, he had a 5.80 ERA/1.44 WHIP, and a 1.86 K:BB ratio. In 35 games in relief, Rodriguez had a 4.80 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with a 2.11 K:BB ratio. And that's with an overall .271 BABIP. There's no reason to not let him go back to Triple-A (he only had 17 starts for Tampa's Triple-A team in 2010) and get some more seasoning - unless he has a killer Spring.

Lucas Harrell

Harrell, one of Wade's waiver claims from 2011, made his Astros debut on September 2 against Milwaukee - going 5.1IP, allowing 3H/0ER, 4K:2BB, and throwing 114 pitches. Then he appeared in five more games, with an unsuccessful start against the Rockies thrown in on September 25. But he did alright. Harrell has a tendency to walk batters - 4.3 batters per nine - in seven minor-league seasons, with 6.0 K/9 in the same time frame. In nine starts for Oklahoma City in 2011, we has 5-2 with a 1.72 ERA/1.26 WHIP. He has a couple of options left, but will be 27 in June.

Henry Sosa

Obtained in the Keppinger trade from the Giants, the hard(ish)-throwing Sosa (93.1mph avg fastball) got ten starts for the Astros in 2011. He had a 5.23 ERA, but his FIP was 4.77, and his xFIP was 4.50 - so he probably isn't as bad as it looked. He'll also be 27 at the end of July.

Xavier Cedeno

The Astros picked up Cedeno following the 2010 season, and assigned him to Double-A Corpus (he missed the entire 2010 season), where he went 5-6 with a 3.95 ERA/1.28 WHIP, striking out 8.9 batters per nine. So they bumped him up to Oklahoma City, where had a much worse time with his peripherals (6.23 ERA/1.54 WHIP), but still managed to strike out 27 batters in his 26IP. He saw 1.2IP of action with the Astros in 2011 (3 games), and gave up 5H/2ER (2HR) in his final appearance of the season - in the 19-3 drubbing at the hands of the Rockies. Nowhere near enough to get any sort of opinion about Cedeno. Still, he's a longshot to make the rotation, and I'd expect him back in OKC.

The Screw-gee

So the dreaded cuts came today for nine, and I'll agree with The Crawfish Boxes, some of them don't make sense.

Here are your nine:
RHP Wilton Lopez
RHP Casey Daigle
RHP Gary Majewski
RHP Gustavo Chacin

IF Drew Meyer
1B Chris Shelton
IF/OF Edwin Maysonet

C Jason Castro
C Kevin Cash

McTaggart notes that Majewski, Chacin, Meyer, Shelton, and Cash were reassigned to minor-league camp, but will stay with the Big Club through the end of Spring Training.

Lopez, Maysonet, Castro, and Daigle are reassigned to Minor League camp immediately.

So this likely means the following:
Towles will be your Opening Day catcher (though Footer notes that the Astros are saying it's between Towles and Quintero.)
Gervacio has his spot in the bullpen.
Cory Sullivan is your OF5.

I'm most surprised by Lopez, Maysonet, and Daigle's reassignment. Lopez didn't allow an earned run all Spring. Maysonet got playing time in LF yesterday, and was given a nice review by Mills, so I'm not sure what that guy has to do to stick with the Big League team. Daigle has been lights out this Spring, while Moehler and Byrdak have taken their sweet time to get ready for the season to start (though I understand Byrdak's predisposition to throwing with his left arm is a reason why he's a roster lock). Hopefully with the performances shown this spring by these three, that means there's a short leash on the big league guys.

Daigle makes a case for a bullpen spot

After Casey Daigle's performance today, Brad Mills is throwing Daigle's name in the ring for a bullpen spot.

Sullivan in line for OF5

Cory Sullivan is in line for the OF5 spot, so it would suggest from his team-high in ABs. Oh, and the love being showered upon him by Ed Wade, who stopped short of calling out his jock size:

Wade:
Cory's done a nice job.He's done exactly what we thought he was capable of doing when we signed him. He's a multiple-position, left-handed-hitting outfielder, and that profiles very well for us. We're not at the point of anointing anybody right now, but Cory's put his best foot forward and that's exactly what we knew he was capable of doing."

Sullivan:
"There's always competition, but I try and use [the] spring to get ready for April 5," he said. "I know my skill set and they know my skill set. They've seen me do it before, but the idea is not to peak in April. You want to build through Spring Training and be ready April 5, and that's kind of how I approach it."

And he's had plenty of Kool-Aid:
"There's always competition, but I try and use [the] spring to get ready for April 5. I know my skill set and they know my skill set. They've seen me do it before, but the idea is not to peak in April. You want to build through Spring Training and be ready April 5, and that's kind of how I approach it."

Survivor: Kissimmee, Episode #1

Let's take a look at what we know about the roster, and then use some information from Bernardo Fallas to supplement it.

1B - Berkman
2B - Matsui
3B - Feliz
SS - Manzella
IF5 - Blum
LF - Lee
CF - Bourn
RF - Pence
OF4 - Michaels
C2 - Quintero

We see from Fallas that the Astros plan on carrying seven in the bullpen, meaning there will be 13 position players on the Opening Day roster, meaning there are only a couple of spots open: IF6, C1, and OF5.

Norris has to come out and go all Wild Thing in order to go back to Round Rock, and there's a good chance that if Paulino doesn't impress The Law Offices of Mills, Arnsberg, and Wade, he'll go back to Round Rock to continue to develop - thanks to his one remaining option. So let's look at this:

If Paulino craps the bed:
SP5 - Moehler
BP1 - Sampson
BP2 - Wright/Gervacio
BP3 - Byrdak
BP4 - Arias
BP5 - Fulchino
BP6 - Lindstrom
BP7 - Lyon

If Paulino wins SP5:
BP1 - Moehler
BP2 - Sampson
BP3 - Byrdak
BP4 - Arias
BP5 - Fulchino
BP6 - Lindstrom
BP7 - Lyon

On the bubble is Yorman Bazardo, who either has to make the team, or clear waivers. Wade:
“He's got to be knee-deep in the competition. If we decide Yorman is not going to make our club, there's a real good chance we're not going to get him through waivers.”

Keep in mind Gustavo Chacin, Josh Banks, and Shane Loux are all looking for a job, too. And if they don't win it, they'll need a good Spring to find a place on another team. But it won't just come down to statistical results, right Ed Wade?

“We're all human. We remember the guys who work hard and do certain things.”