2012 Astros Projections

Before I reveal the numbers, I want to explain how I came up with them. I'll keep it brief.

First, I needed to determine everyone's playing time. For this, I used the depth charts (may be behind a premium content firewall) over at Baseball Prospectus as a guide and adjusted where I felt necessary. Using those percentages and the average number of plate appearances per team last season I arrived at everyone's projected plate appearances. I used a similar idea for the pitchers' innings, again tweaking where I felt best.

Once I had everyone's playing time set, I turned my attention to the rate stats. For the hitters that meant walk rates, strikeout rates, rates of extra base hits, etc. Again, the process was very similar for the pitchers. These rates were derived from a loose averaging of the projections available at Fangraphs and the players career averages. Minor adjustments were made for those with very small major league sample sizes. From there, simple multiplication spit out their projections.

For the W-L record, I simply plugged the projected runs scored and runs against into the Pythagorean win theorem formula and out popped  the projected record. Last year our Pythagorean record was 62-100, meaning in theory we under achieved by six wins.

Obviously any major changes in roster make up (trades, injuries, etc) could change things dramatically. 

I feel like it's a little optimistic, but I can't find any major errors in the formulas or calculations.

Screw it, I'm running with it!

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lee	600	556	70	151	31	1	23	94	2	44	59	0.272	0.326	0.455	0.781
Altuve	578	556	66	160	32	3	5	58	19	22	72	0.287	0.314	0.382	0.696
Martinez	555	517	68	146	33	0	15	86	0	38	109	0.282	0.332	0.435	0.767
Schafer	489	445	60	109	18	3	4	24	23	44	107	0.244	0.312	0.326	0.638
Lowrie	478	434	59	112	30	4	10	61	2	44	82	0.258	0.326	0.417	0.744
Castro	455	410	53	97	19	2	5	46	0	45	81	0.237	0.312	0.332	0.644
Johnson	421	402	39	107	23	3	11	51	3	19	99	0.266	0.299	0.416	0.715
Bogusevic	414	378	51	97	19	2	7	35	10	36	91	0.257	0.322	0.378	0.700
Downs	404	373	46	94	30	0	13	52	1	31	77	0.251	0.308	0.438	0.746
Shuck	298	268	37	72	9	3	1	10	8	30	33	0.268	0.343	0.332	0.675
Ruggiano	297	278	35	70	13	0	9	33	5	19	75	0.250	0.297	0.398	0.695
Snyder	270	235	26	54	11	0	9	34	0	35	62	0.228	0.328	0.390	0.718
Gonzalez	270	256	29	68	13	2	2	23	4	14	35	0.265	0.303	0.357	0.661
Buck	231	213	25	51	13	2	6	25	2	18	46	0.241	0.300	0.399	0.700
Wallace	165	152	16	39	9	0	3	13	0	13	39	0.257	0.317	0.389	0.706
F. Martinez	164	154	17	36	8	0	3	14	3	10	34	0.231	0.278	0.339	0.617
Sanchez	61	57	7	15	2	0	0	5	0	4	9	0.256	0.307	0.309	0.616
Team Totals	6150	5683	706	1475	315	26	127	662	82	467	1110	0.260	0.316	0.391	0.707

So, how does the offense compare to last season? Well, that would give us 91 more runs scored, 32 more home runs, 66 more walks, 54 fewer strikeouts, and an OPS .023 higher than last year. To put it another way, these projections would give us an essentially league average offense. At first glance only Carlos Lee's numbers look especially optimistic to me.


How about the pitchers?

	IP	G	W	L	SV	H	HR	BB	SO	R	ER	ERA	WHIP
W. Rodriguez	180	32	12	10	0	178	20	62	156	85	76	3.80	1.33
Norris	170	30	10	9	0	166	20	69	164	87	77	4.07	1.38
Happ	140	28	8	7	0	130	17	66	113	73	68	4.39	1.40
Weiland	120	34	6	9	0	127	18	54	79	67	64	4.81	1.51
Lyles	120	26	5	7	0	137	16	34	86	67	62	4.62	1.42
Harrell	120	49	5	5	0	163	8	64	83	78	63	4.70	1.89
Myers	70	52	4	3	23	70	9	22	56	34	32	4.06	1.31
Lopez	70	66	3	4	0	76	6	16	52	32	28	3.64	1.30
Sosa	70	13	4	6	0	71	9	30	51	37	37	4.75	1.44
Carpenter	60	50	2	6	7	61	7	27	57	28	28	4.23	1.46
F. Rodriguez	60	54	2	3	0	59	7	32	60	31	29	4.31	1.51
Lyon	50	40	3	3	7	53	5	19	34	25	23	4.20	1.43
A. Rodriguez	45	23	1	3	0	44	6	18	35	27	23	4.65	1.38
Wright	40	43	2	2	0	39	5	18	37	20	18	4.15	1.41
Abreu	40	42	2	2	12	36	5	19	51	16	16	3.68	1.37
Abad	40	53	1	5	0	43	7	13	30	23	21	4.75	1.41
Cruz	35	27	1	2	0	36	5	33	27	26	24	6.18	1.98
Del Rosario	20	21	0	1	0	24	1	7	10	12	10	4.53	1.58
Team Totals	1450				49	1513	171	601	1179	770	700	4.34	1.46

Nothing here really stands out as unlikely to me. Maybe Happ's numbers are too good, but that's actually very close to his career averages. It's very possible one or more relievers is particularly ineffective this year, but who? And if so, they wouldn't get many innings anyway. So again, how does that stack up to last year's squad?  We're looking at a team ERA just 0.17 better as they only give up 26 fewer runs that last year. Walks are up by 41 and strikeouts are down by 12. This squad does allow 17 fewer homers, according to my projections. To again frame these projections against last year's competition a 4.34 ERA would have only put us ahead of one other team.

So, assuming my math is correct, 706 runs scored and 770 runs against would give us a projected team record of..............

74-88!

Yes, I question my own sanity for actually publishing that, but there it is. Led by a potentially much improved offense it is entirely possible that the Astros will finish not last in 2012.

Roster finalized

So Alyson Footer tweeted that:

*Henry Sosa has been outrighted to OKC, where he'll join the rotation.
*Travis Buck's contract has been purchased.

So here is your 2012 Opening Day roster:

Rotation
J.A. Happ
Lucas Harrell
Bud Norris
Wandy Rodriguez
Kyle Weiland

Bullpen
Fernando Abad
David Carpenter
Rhiner Cruz
Wilton Lopez
Brandon Lyon
Brett Myers
Fernando Rodriguez
Wesley Wright

Catchers
Jason Castro
Chris Snyder

Infielders
Jose Altuve
Matt Downs
Marwin Gonzalez
Chris Johnson
Carlos Lee
Jed Lowrie*

Outfielders
Brian Bogusevic
Travis Buck
J.D. Martinez
Jordan Schafer

*Should Jed Lowrie hit the DL with that jacked-up thumb, Brian Bixler will take his place.

Carlos Lee is the poster-boy for "bad baseball"

Buzzfeed has a post up entitled "In Defense of Bad Baseball" where, predictably, the Astros feature prominently (and Carlos Lee is the poster-boy)...

There's a limit to this, of course — if good-bad baseball feels languid and pleasantly buzzy, bad-bad baseball feels more like a sinus infection, with everything happening entirely too slowly and painfully, and with the existential suck-factor dialed all the way up. For instance, the Houston Astros — a team that has made maybe two good baseball decisions since Barack Obama was elected President — are a bummer. They don't put out a competitive product, but they charge fans competitive prices for the right to consume it; their domed stadium features so much fake old-timey gimmickry and inauthentic quirk that it might as well be a gated community called Olde Baseballe Acres; much of Houston's Major League roster appears to have been spit out of a Random Athlete Name Generator, and the organization's player development strategy in recent years has been 1) short guys, 2) players who are related to former Major Leaguers, and 3) short guys who are related to former Major Leaguers. This is unfair to their fans for a bunch of reasons. It's unfair, too, to people like Chris Johnson and J.D. Martinez — real baseball players on the Astros, promise — who are good enough at a very difficult sport to make it to the Major Leagues, but still get goofed on at BuzzFeed for their implausibly generic names. Broadly speaking, this is not good. It's bad.

Prediction: Media will drive us to insanity long before the Astros do...

Demand for Opening Day tickets down

Via the Chronicle (via SeatGeek), demand for Friday's opener against the Rockies is 28th out of 30 teams (I'm assuming this means "Home Openers").

Astros won't know for sure about Lowrie until Friday

The 25-Man roster has to be set by 4pm today, but silly rules like that don't apply to Jed Lowrie. The Astros can either leave him active, or DL him at any point. But that might not happen until Friday.

Luhnow:
We’ll take all the time he can. If we thought it was just going to be Friday-Saturday and he’d be back Sunday, we’d probably keep him active. But we probably won’t know all that information until Friday.”

Lowrie told McTaggart:
“You know what, it feels a lot better than I thought it was going to at this point. It’s only a week out and it feels like it’s been about two months. I’m very happy with the progress it’s made, and I think it’s just because it’s a muscle strain it’s about getting soreness and stiffness out.”

Who wants to break it to the Gaston Gazette?

Poor Gaston Gazette. I don't want to do it. I really don't. They seem so happy. So proud. But someone should probably tell them that Jake Buchanan didn't make the 25-man roster.

Gazette:
A former two-time Gazette player of the year, Buchanan has been promoted to the Houston Astros opening day roster and could soon be North Gaston’s first major-leaguer. Buchanan, a 2007 North Gaston High graduate, got the call late Tuesday night and will be with the Astros as they open their 2012 season with a three-game home series against Colorado that begins Friday night.

I've scoured Twitter. Searched the Tranzactionz feed at astros.com. Asked around. The best I can come up with was confirmed by Farmstros, that Buchanan is at Minute Maid for the exhibition game tonight against the White Sox, but that's it.

Has Bud Norris added a new pitch?

Carson Cistulli over at FanGraphs has a short little piece on Bud Norris' second pitch of last night's game against the White Sox. As the .gif shows, it's a fastball that tails away from a left handed batter which is indicative of a two-seam fastball. This is noteworthy because Bud's never really shown a two-seamer in the past. It will be interesting to see what impact this new pitch will have this season and beyond for Bud.

Johnson, Weiland are full of confidence

Over here, we see that Chris Johnson and Kyle Weiland both dealt with over- and under-confidence in 2011.

Johnson, on 2011:
"A lot of things happened last year. I didn't quite make the adjustments as early as I should have. I may have gotten a little cocky, and thought I was just going to come in last year and do it again. That's one thing I learned. You never want to get comfortable here. You have to keep working every single day."

And for Weiland? He called his wife and parents first, before dishing out the wisdom:
"You have to have confidence in this game no matter what your situation is. I knew there was a chance I could break [camp] with the team. I knew there was good talent I was going against to win a spot. The biggest thing for me was not to try to do too much."

Roster Notes

Steve Campbell has your morning update on the roster:

*Bud Norris is ready to go:
“I felt good and ready to get into this, knowing I’m healthy and 100 percent and don’t have that in the back of my head. The No. 1 priority out of spring training is to feel good, and I’m ready to go.”

*Schafer feels good after his first game in two weeks.
(But in this Astros.com piece, says he's not close to 100%:
"I'm not close to 100 percent. Am I good enough to go out there and play? I think so. That's what today's all about. Hopefully, it will be good enough that I can play and be productive. Hopefully over the next couple of weeks, it will get back to 100 percent again.")

*Lowrie has been upgraded to "possible"

*Shuck was optioned to OKC following last night's game. Mills:
“The one think that Shuckie does is give us good quality at-bats every time out, and that’s huge. We’re going to see him probably fairly quickly. We hope he goes down there in the right frame of mind — and there’s no reason to think he won’t — and gets back here in a hurry.”

Ways you know Jamie Moyer is old

Lucas Harrell, who will pitch in G2 on Saturday, will face Jamie Moyer, the Satchel Paige of our generation. Just in case you were wondering about the generational gap between Harrell and Moyer, Harrell had this to say:

“I used to play with Jamie Moyer when he was with the Mariners on Super Nintendo. He was one of my favorite pitchers to use. He had the super change pitch. It’s definitely an honor. It’s a very big step in my career.”

Moyer reportedly responded by saying, "I understand. I used to use Lefty Grove in my pinball baseball game."

Astros not interested in Dodgertown

TCPalm says that Jim Crane and the Astros haven't shown any interest in taking over Dodgertown, now run by Minor League Baseball, for their Spring Training facility.

MiLB president Pat O'Conner:
"I used to work for the Astros, and they are a great organization, so we'd be interested in letting them take a look, but to my knowledge we haven't heard anything from them. I didn't know they were looking around. At this point, it's kind of if anyone calls us, we'll talk to anyone and everyone interested, and then if I hear of something I'll follow up and make a call, but the dye is probably cast in Vero Beach."

Meanwhile, WPTV says that Crane liked Digital Domain Park in Port St. Lucie, which they would split with the Mets. DDP's Paul Taglieri:
"I mean he liked what he saw and again it's just a general tour of the facility. He's keeping his options open."

WPTV:
Taglieri said the stadium is open to the concept of having a second team join the Mets. He said the Astros would provide a huge boost to the local economy and baseball on the east coast of Florida, which has slowly moved out over the last few years...Taglieri said the stadium is open to the concept of having a second team join the Mets. He said the Astros would provide a huge boost to the local economy and baseball on the east coast of Florida, which has slowly moved out over the last few years.

Corpus Manager Keith Bodie is pumped

Corpus Christi Manager Keith Bodie is predictably excited about the 2012 Hooks:

"I've managed in Double-A. I've managed in this league four years in Wichita. I haven't had a team with the talent like this team's got. And if you look at our record in Wichita, we won every season. We finished first every second half. We were in the playoffs every year and this team is better than any team I ever had with the Royals."

From the Office of the County Clerk - Spring Training G31: White Sox @ Astros

The Astros fell to the Chicago White Sox 5-1 at Minute Maid Park tonight. It was the first of two exhibition games the Astros will play at MMP against the White Sox, with the other being tomorrow afternoon. The Astros then get a day off on Thursday before Opening Day on Friday evening.

*The Astros Spring Training record dropped to 14-17.

*Jordan Schafer made his return to the lineup and looked pretty solid from the leadoff spot. He had an infield hit in the 1st inning and had tough-luck out in his next at-bat when he absolutely hammered one - but right at the second baseman.

*Astros batters struck out a total of 10 times tonight. They are going to have to make better contact during the regular season to give themselves a chance of putting guys on base.

*Carpenter gave up back to back homeruns to Dunn and Konerko in the 5th inning. He also gave up a walk. It was by all accounts a very ugly outing.

*Brett Wallace looked very comfortable at 3rd base on a couple of hot shots his way in the top of the 9th. Chris Johnson on the other hand looked lost at the plate and bobbled a ball in the infield that resulted in an infield hit. Although it wasn't a 'gimme' by any means, Johnson is going to have to play better defensively and have his bat heat up to hold off Wallace from coming back up to the big league club and stealing his spot.

*Altuve had a couple of great at bats where he really worked the count. It finally paid off on his last at bat when he got lucky on a bloop single. With such a small strike zone it would be nice to see him walk more this year.

*The bullpen had its ups and downs but really didn't look that effective. The White Sox had 14 hits to our 7 tonight. 

*The Astros were very agressive on the basepaths tonight. A lot of it likely has to do with AJ Pierzynski only throwing out 20% of attempted base stealers in his career...but I hope they keep it up in the regular season and put some pressure on the other teams.

*Even Carlos Lee attempted a stolen base - and although there wasn't  a great slow motion reply provided, he looked safe to me. He sure thought he was.

*I know it is only one game and it was against some good major league pitching...but JD Martinez and Chris Snyder stood out as two guys to me who I thought would make some solid contact tonight, but really didn't look good at all swinging the bat.

Man of the Match

Tough choice on a bad night for the offense and not a great night all around, but going with Jose Altuve here. Went 1 for 2 and drew a walk - worked the count deep on both of his first trips up. Also made a couple of nice knockdowns in the game. Perhaps they could have been done better and converted to outs, but they likely saved runs regardless.

Goat of the Game: 

Split decision:

1. Chris Johnson - 0 for 3 at the plate with 2 strikeouts and a bobbled ball in the infield that resulted in an infield single. 

2. David Carpenter - came into a close 2-1 game, promptly gave up back to back homeruns and put the Astros in a 4-1 hole.

Luhnow likes the team, compares Schafer to Ellsbury

CultureMap Houston has a recap of the day's events at Minute Maid Park. Among the highlights...

On the team:
"We believe we have the talent in the organization to win any series. Most publications are picking us to finish dead last in the Central and 29th or 30th (out of 30 teams) in all of the Majors. But I think we're going to surprise some people."

On Jordan Schafer:
"He's definitely one you can dream on becoming a Jacoby Ellsbury-type player - A guy who can hit home runs and steal bases."

Corpus sets the front of their rotation

Greg Rajan tweeted that Jarred Cosart, Ross Seaton, and Jose Cisnero will be the first three starting pitchers for the Hooks.

Presumably, Jake Buchanan and Brett Oberholtzer will round out the Corpus rotation, but at least the first three are set.

Update: That's exactly who it will be.

Astros on the ESPN Top 500

ESPN ranked the Top 500 players in Major League Baseball. Here are the Astros represented:

#166: Wandy Rodriguez
#314: Brett Myers
#323: Bud Norris
#326: Carlos Lee
#398: Jed Lowrie
#432: Jose Altuve
#500: J.D. Martinez

Random random Astro - Roger Cedeno

In this installment of RRA we'll discuss a player I honestly forgot had spent time in Houston, outfielder Roger Cedeno. Roger would spend just one season, 2000, with Houston before moving on.

In December of 1999 Cedeno was traded to Houston from the Mets along with young starter Octavio Dotel and minor leaguer Kyle Kessel in exchange for Derek Bell and Mike Hampton. Cedeno had just come off an age 24 season with the Mets in which he stole 66 bases with a .396 OBP.

Houston used Roger almost equally across all three outfield positions while batting him first or second, utilizing his strong on-base ability and speed. Unfortunately, a broken hand suffered sliding head first into first base cost him two and a half months on the disabled list. Still, in 74 games Cedeno hit .282/.383/.398 with 25 steals.

Two games in particular show the ability Roger was able to flash. On April 22 against San Diego, Cedeno went  2x3 with two walks, a double, one run scored, two RBI on a game tying two-out single in the sixth inning, and an amazing four stolen bases in a 10 inning 8-6 loss. Three weeks later, Roger targeted the Reds on May 12. He would contribute to all three Houston runs in a 7-3 loss as he went 5x6 with one run, two RBI, and another three stolen bases.

Cedeno would suffer his injury two weeks later, which opened up a spot in the outfield for a young Lance Berkman. Berkman's emergence allowed Houston to trade Cedeno to Detroit along with Chris Holt and Mitch Melusky for Brad Ausmus, Doug Brocail, and reliever Nelson Cruz.

Roger would spend another five seasons in the majors without ever returning to the level of success he experienced with the Mets. He was last seen in uniform during a comeback attempt with Baltimore in 2007. After reportedly arriving to camp weighing in at 274 pounds he was released during spring training.

Updates on Schafer, Lowrie

Alyson Footer tweeted earlier that:

*Jordan Schafer should start the season on-time and healthy.
*Jed Lowrie is still day-to-day, and a DL trip will be decided on tomorrow.

One Paragraph on Jim Crane

Baseball Prospectus posted 30 paragraphs on 30 MLB teams today at Deadspin. Go ahead, the whole Astros paragraph is on Jim Crane's legal troubles.

Where Did These Guys Come From: Lexington

And we conclude this year's Where Did These Guys Come From, by looking at the Lexington Legends roster:

Pitchers

Tanner Bushue - Drafted, 2nd Round - 2009
Jason Chowning - Drafted, 28th Round - 2010
Luis Cruz - Signed as free agent prior to 2008 season
Dayan Diaz - Signed as free agent prior to 2006 season
Jonas Dufek - Drafted, 9th Round - 2011
Mike Foltynewicz - Drafted, 1st Round - 2010
Murilo Gouvea - Acquired via trade with White Sox, July 2009
Evan Grills - Drafted, 10th Round - 2010
Kyle Hallock - Drafted, 10th Round - 2011
Carlos Quevedo - Signed as free agent prior to 2007 season
Nick Tropeano - Drafted, 5th Round - 2011
Scott Zuloaga - Drafted, 16th Round - 2011

Catchers

Miles Hamblin - Drafted, 12th Round - 2011
Mike Kvasnicka - Drafted, 1st Round - 2010
Roberto Pena - Drafted, 7th Round - 2010

Infielders

Tyler Burnett - Drafted, 17th Round - 2010
Delino DeShields - Drafted, 1st Round - 2010
Matt Duffy - Drafted, 20th Round - 2011
Jimmy Howick - Drafted, 21st Round - 2011
Zach Johnson - Drafted, 15th Round - 2011
Alex Todd - Drafted, 27th Round - 2011

Outfielders

Justin Gominsky - Drafted, 11th Round - 2011
Emilio King - Signed as free agent prior to 2007 season
Drew Muren - Drafted, 22nd Round - 2011
Jordan Scott - Drafted, 14th Round - 2010

Where Did These Guys Come From: Lancaster

We continue our look at how the minor-leaguers were acquired with the Lancaster Jethawks:

Pitchers

Ruben Alaniz - Signed as free agent prior to 2009 season
Kirk Clark - Signed as free agent, August 2009
Jorge De Leon - Signed as free agent prior to 2006 season
Bobby Doran - Drafted, 4th Round - 2010
Gabe Garcia - Signed as free agent prior to 2007 season
Zach Grimmett - Drafted, 28th round - 2008
David Martinez - Signed as free agent prior to 2005 season
Wes Musick - Acquired via trade with Rockies, December 2010
Andrew Robinson - Drafted, 12th Round - 2010
Alex Sogard - Drafted, 26th Round - 2010
Brian Streilein - Drafted, 37th Round - 2010
Jose Trinidad - Signed as amateur free agent prior to 2005 season
Pat Urckfitz - Signed as free agent, July 2008

Catchers

Rene Garcia - Drafted, 35th Round - 2008
Ben Heath - Drafted, 5th Round - 2010
Ryan McCurdy - Signed as free agent, July 2010

Infielders

Erik Castro - Drafted, 10th Round - 2009
Enrique Hernandez - Drafted, 6th Round - 2009
Jonathan Meyer - Drafted, 3rd Round - 2009
Jio Mier - Drafted, 1st Round - 2009
Telvin Nash - Drafted, 3rd Round - 2009
Ben Orloff - Drafted, 9th Round - 2009
Rafael Valenzuela - Signed as free agent, June 2010

Outfielders

Dan Adamson - Drafted, 20th Round - 2010
Domingo Santana - Acquired via trade with Phillies, 7/29/11
George Springer - Drafted, 1st Round - 2011

Where Did These Guys Come From: Corpus

We continue our series by looking at how the 2012 Corpus Christi Hooks were acquired...

Pitchers

Erick Abreu - Signed as free agent, prior to 2008 season
Jonnathan Aristil - Acquired via trade with Rockies, December 2010
Jake Buchanan - Drafted, 8th Round - 2010
Kevin Chapman - Acquired via trade with Royals, 3/20/12
Jose Cisnero - Signed as free agent prior to 2008 season
Jarred Cosart - Acquired via trade with Phillies, 7/29/11
Chris Hicks - Drafted, 14th Round - 2008
Arcenio Leon - Signed as free agent prior to 2005 season
Brett Oberholtzer - Acquired via trade with Braves, 7/30/11
Ross Seaton - Drafted, 3rd Round - 2008
Jason Stoffel - Acquired via trade with Giants, 7/19/11
Henry Villar - Signed as free agent prior to 2006 season
Josh Zeid - Acquired by trade with Phillies, 7/29/11

Catchers

Jair Fernandez - Signed as free agent, 2/6/12
Chris Wallace - Drafted, 16th Round - 2010

Infielders

Kody Hinze - Signed as free agent, 2008
Jordan Kreke - Signed as free agent, January 2012
Jose Martinez - Signed as free agent
Andy Simunic - Drafted, 17th Round - 2008
Jonathan Singleton - Acquired via trade with Phillies, 7/29/11
Jose Carlos Thompson - Signed as free agent, January 2011
Jonathan Villar - Acquired via trade with Phillies, 7/30/10

Outfielders

Adam Bailey - Drafted, 23rd Round - 2010
Brandon Barnes - Drafted, 6th Round - 2005
T.J. Steele - Drafted, 4th Round - 2008
Austin Wates - Drafted, 3rd Round - 2010

Where did these guys come from: Oklahoma City

Courtesy of Brian McTaggart, we have the minor-league rosters set. So where did these guys come from? Let's start with Oklahoma City:

Pitchers

Juan Abreu - Acquired via trade with Braves, 7/31/11
Xavier Cedeno - Signed as free agent, 1/5/11
Paul Clemens - Acquired via trade with Braves, 7/31/11
Enerio Del Rosario - Claimed off waivers from Reds, 9/16/10
Adalberto Flores - Signed as free agent, November 2011
Dallas Keuchel - Drated, 7th Round - 2009
Jordan Lyles - Drafted, 1st Round (supp) - 2008
Sergio Perez - Drafted, 2nd Round - 2006
Aneury Rodriguez - Rule 5 pick, 2009
Mickey Storey - Acquired via trade with A's, 7/1/11
Jose G. Valdez - Signed as free agent, November 2009

Catchers

Carlos Corporan - Signed as free agent, November 2010
Landon Powell - Signed as free agent, March 2012

Infielders

Diory Hernandez - Signed as free agent, December 2011
Mike Hessman - Signed as free agent, February 2012
Scott Moore - Signed as free agent, November 2011
Jimmy Paredes - Acquired via trade with Yankees, 7/31/10
Brett Wallace - Acquired via trade with Blue Jays, 7/29/10

Outfielders

Collin DeLome - Drafted, 5th Round - 2005
Jake Goebbert - Drafted, 13th Round - 2009
Fernando Martinez - Claimed off waivers from Mets - 1/11/12
Brad Snyder - Signed as free agent, November 2011

Official minor league rosters

As Brian McTaggert reports, the Astros have released the rosters for OKC, Corpus, Lancaster, and Lexington.

In particular I'm intrigued by the Corpus and Lancaster squads. I think those two teams are where the farm system improvements will be most evident this season.

Your Starting Rotation & other news

The Astros will go with a rotation of:

SP1: Wandy
SP2: Lucas Harrell
SP3: Bud Norris
SP4: J.A. Happ
SP5: Kyle Weiland

Here's who they would face (if this is, indeed, the final order):

Friday: Wandy vs. Jeremy Guthrie
Saturday: Harrell vs. Jamie Moyer
Sunday: Norris vs. Juan Nicasio

Lyles has been sent to OKC, while Rule 5 picks Rhiner Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez have made the team (and if they get optioned off the team, go back to their respective former teams).

Lyles to OKC (?)

Zachary Levine is tweeting that, while the team is not confirming/denying, Jordan Lyles is likely heading to OKC to start the season. The average age of a pitcher in the Pacific Coast League in 2011 was 27.1 (whereas it was 23.6 in the Texas League), so for the 21 year-old Lyles, it's fine to give him some more seasoning in Triple-A.

ESPN Power Rankings

The World Wide Leader has released their first power rankings of the 2012 season. Not surprisingly, the Astros are 30th. Just in case you don't remember, there are only 30 organizations. So we're last.

I'm not going to take issue with that. But I will take issue with the blurb written about the team. In particular, this sentence:

The staff ace (Wandy Rodriguez) has a losing record for his career and an ERA over 4.00.

While technically correct, it is very misleading. As true Astros fans know, Wandy had a very shaky start to his career. However, if you take the last four seasons, you see that Wandy is in the top 20 in ERA (3.40) among pitchers with at least 600 innings. That ranks him above Justin Verlander, Roy Oswalt, and Yovanni Gallardo over the same time period. Using the same criteria Wandy's 15th in K/9 (8.25), tied with Felix Hernandez. He's top 25 in K/BB (2.74). Top 30 in Win Probability Added (WPA). And Wandy has a winning record over that same four year period (45-42) despite pitching on teams that were a combined 63 games under .500.

The worst part about the quote that set me off this afternoon? It was written by an Astros blogger, who should have known better. Et tu?

Hello Again

Some of you may remember me from my previous time here with Astros County a couple of years ago, when I helped with some game previews and recaps. Well a couple of kids and some other major life changes later, I'm back with slightly more free time - which I am looking forward to using up doing game recaps for Astros County again.

My plan is to start tomorrow with the recap of the Spring Training game at MMP against the Ozzie-Guillen-less Chicago White Sox. I would love to get some feedback from you folks - if there is anything you like or don't like about the recap format, let me know.

Although most people are not expecting much from the Astros this year, I think we have to be excited about where the club is headed in the future. There are some great baseball minds in our front office and there is nowhere to go but up. I think the Astros might just surprise us a bit this year.

I hope to get to talk to many of you this season - come say hi at mcquid@gmail.com or launch me a tweet to @mcquid.

Lets go Astros!

Astros in on Alfredo Simon

Perhaps you already knew this, but I didn't. The Astros are apparently in on former Orioles pitcher Alfredo Simon, who cleared waivers on Friday. The 30-year old threw 115.2IP in 2011, allowing 128H/63ER, with 83K:40BB, a 4.90 ERA/1.45 WHIP (4.42 FIP, 4.23 xFIP). According to FanGraphs, his fastball averaged 94.4mph in 2011, mixing in a slider, curve, and split-finger fastball.

Ringolsby's NL Central preview barely mentions Houston

Yeah, we keep up with these predictions (you'll be able to click the Predictions label and see them all). Anyhow, Ringolsby's preview barely mentions Houston:

<i>It's difficult to imagine the Cardinals falling below .500, particularly in a six-team division that includes the Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs.</i>

Prediction: 6th place.

CSN Chicago simulated the 2012 season ten times

This guy simulated the 2012 baseball season ten times. It's very Cubs-oriented (of course), but it's notable that, in those ten simulations, the Astros finished ahead of the Cubs four times.

Spring Training Awards!

What with the end of the Grapefruit League season, and with a few exhibition games remaining, it's time to announce the 2012 Spring Training Award winners...

The J.R. Towles Memorial March Hitter of the Spring Award

Chris Johnson. Johnson led the team (min. 20 ABs) in batting average (.368), SLG (.737), homers (5), doubles (6), and OPS (1.116), staking a claim to the 3B1 job and sending Brett Wallace back to Triple-A.

The Taylor Buchholz Memorial March Pitcher of the Spring Award

Wilton Lopez. In 9IP, Lopez allowed 4H/1ER, 11K:0BB, and a .138 BAA.

Nick Cafardo's Sunday post

In Nick Cafardo's Sunday post, he ranks all 30 MLB managers. Wherefore art thou, Brad Mills?

#27. We all know Mills from Boston and know how organized he was as Francona’s right-hand man for so long. This is much too low a rating for him, but it’s hard to put him higher after a 106-loss season.

Roster Moves!

The Opening Day roster will be announced on Wednesday, but will feature five players who have never made an Opening Day roster, meaning:

Jose Altuve
Brian Bogusevic
Jason Castro
Marwin Gonzalez
J.D. Martinez

The main thing is that Brett Wallace will be headed to Triple-A, where he said:
“I’m obviously disappointed. But I’m going to take it and go down there and work hard and try to get back here as soon as I can.”

So we can reasonably assume the following:

*Your defensive lineup will be:
C1 - Castro/Snyder
1B - Carlos Lee
2B - Jose Altuve
3B - Chris Johnson
SS - Jed Lowrie*
LF - J.D. Martinez
CF - Jordan Schafer*
RF - Brian Bogusevic

* - Both are currently injured, with no real timetable for their return. The Rule 5er Gonzalez making the Opening Day roster could indicate that Lowrie's thumb is in rough shape, and he may have a DL stint in his future.

Lowrie could miss Opening Day

Marwin Gonzalez could be your SS1 come Opening Day, as there's some concern about Jed Lowrie's thumb, which he sprained diving into 2nd base on Wednesday.

Mills:
"He wasn't able to grip the ball as well as we'd like. We're going to wait and see how that works out. It's pretty tender."

Lowrie says he can't pick up the bat, and Luhnow isn't giving away any details:
"That could be a few days; it could be a couple of weeks, and anywhere in between. We need to proceed with contingency plans in place for Jed being ready to go Opening Day, and Jed not being ready to go Opening Day.

If Gonzalez doesn't stick on the roster, the Astros have brought Angel Sanchez and Brian Bixler back over from minor-league camp. Because God has forsaken us.

Actually, "Brandon Lyon Surgery" sounds pretty cool

Brandon Lyon doesn't want to be known for his crazy surgery last year, which had no precedent, and no predictor of success.

Lyon:
“They didn’t have any people who’d had this surgery. They didn’t have any research on what to expect or how it would feel. They were kind of in contact with me to see what my progression was so that they had some database for that when someone else had that surgery.”

More Lyon:
“It’s obviously not feeling like there’s nothing going on with my arm. I still have a lot of strength to build up and a lot of things I’ve got to still do. But it’s the best I’ve felt this part of spring training since I’ve been here in Houston.”

Oh, that's good. You know, because this is his third Spring Training. In 2010 he had a cyst in his throwing shoulder. And in 2011 he was on his way to having the crazy-ass surgery that had never been done before.

Crane to do "what's best for us" in Spring Training decision

Jim Crane toured the Mets' Spring Training facility today in Port St. Lucie, Florida, which - as was mentioned a few weeks ago - is a shade less than 10 miles from he Floridian National Golf Club Crane owns.

The Mets play at Digital Domain Park, which just received a $2.5m upgrade courtesy of St. Lucie County (because, you know, they can't pay for it themselves). As part of the agreement (reported by TCPalm.com, linked above), the Mets would help recruit a second team to the complex. Insert your own Ponzi scheme joke here, where that second team just needs to recruit two other teams, who each recruit four other teams...

Anyway, Giles Kibbe (the Floridian's president, and general counsel for the Crane Capital Group) says the team is looking at staying in Kissimmee, with whom they are under contract through 2015, other sites in Florida, and also sites in Arizona.

Crane:
"The state of Florida wants to keep everybody here. We've got to do what's best for us."

6 Players Have To Go

Here's who is left in Astros camp...

Pitchers
Fernando Abad, Juan Abreu, David Carpenter, Xavier Cedeno, Paul Clemens, Rhiner Cruz, Jorge De Leon, Enerio Del Rosario, Zach Duke, Sergio Escalona, J.A. Happ, Lucas Harrell, Livan Hernandez, Arcenio Leon, Wilton Lopez, Jordan Lyles, Brandon Lyon, Brett Myers, Bud Norris, Lance Pendleton, Aneury Rodriguez, Fernando Rodriguez, Wandy Rodriguez, Henry Sosa, Jose Valdez, Kyle Weiland, Wesley Wright, Henry Villar

Catchers
Jason Castro, Carlos Corporan, Rene Garcia, Landon Powell, Humberto Quintero, Chris Snyder, Chris Wallace

Infielders
Jose Altuve, Delino DeShields, Matt Downs, Marwin Gonzalez, Diory Hernandez, Chris Johnson, Carlos Lee, Jed Lowrie, Scott Moore, Jimmy Paredes, Angel Sanchez, Jonathan Singleton, Joe Thurston, Jonathan Villar, Brett Wallace

Outfielders
Brandon Barnes, Brian Bixler, Brian Bogusevic, Jason Bourgeois, Travis Buck, Jack Cust, Jake Goebbert, Fernando Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Jordan Schafer, Justin Ruggiano, J.B. Shuck, Brad Snyder, George Springer

Alberto Arias' shoulder vs. Cecil Cooper

What with the news that Alberto Arias has been released, it's worth looking at what the heck happened to the 2009 breakout star - and it has a lot to do with Cecil Cooper. We actually speculated on just this subject in March 2010. Let's see what happened up to that point.

First of all, Ed Wade picked Arias off waivers on July 31, 2008 from Colorado, where he spent his whole career, signing with the Rockies as an amateur free agent in 2000. Arias was a starter in the Rockies' system for the first two years of what Baseball-Reference has listed, throwing 73IP in 2003, 135IP in 2004, 90.2IP in 2005, 111.2IP in 2006. In 2007, Arias made his MLB debut and, between the minors and Colorado, threw 33.2IP; that was bumped up to 91IP in 2008. With Colorado's system from the beginning of the season to the point where the Astros acquired him, he threw 59.1IP. Doing the remaining math, he threw 30.2IP in August and September for the Astros/Express.

And then 2009 happened, where Arias threw 62IP - again between Triple-A and Houston. We can go to FanGraphs and see his gamelogs from 2006-2008. What do we find?

Appearances on consecutive days

2006: 3
2007: 1
2008: 1 (with Colorado)
2009: 8

We don't have pitch# data from the minors, but we can see a few things about how Cooper used Arias in 2009.

Appearances on 0 days of rest, 2009: 9
Appearances on 1 day of rest, 2009: 13
Appearances on 2 days of rest, 2009: 10

Pitches per outing, May 2009: 13.45
PPO, June 09: 22.78
PPO, July 09: 21.46
PPO, Aug 09: 14.44

 There were some telling signs about Arias' future troubles towards the end of his 2009, which occurred on August 23 as a result of a sore knee:

*Arias threw 30+ pitches seven times in 2009 - five of them between June 26-July 27.
*In May, Arias' sinker was sitting at 93mph (1,555 rpm). In June, it was at 93.27mph (1,859 rpm). In July, it was at 94.07mph (2,051 rpm). And in August, that slider was even higher, at a season-high 94.53mph (2,045 rpm).
*From May-July Arias allowed a .224/.325/.294 line, with 35K in 38.2IP. In August, Arias faced 40 batters, and got 21 of them out, allowing a .459/.500/.595 line with 4K in 7IP.

Later in August, Arias pulled his hamstring slipping in the bullpen. On September 17, his simulated inning didn't go well, and he had knee surgery on September 23. Still, there was no reason to think that Arias wouldn't be ready in 2010. Wade mentioned him as a late-inning bullpen candidate in December 2009.

Thing is, Brad Mills was the manager when Arias was pronounced healthy enough to go after a middle-relief role in March 2010. That said, Arias strained his trapezius on March 9, threw two bullpens and a live BP before needing an MRI on March 21 before getting the report that he jacked his rotator cuff on March 23. Wade was not optimistic about his short-term recovery. On April 21, 2010, Arias was throwing, had a lot of pain, and ended up having surgery, ending his 2010 season. On August 30, he began throwing off flat ground, in preparation of 2011. On January 14, 2011, Arias would be ready for Spring Training, but felt tightness on Feb 21 - four days later he got a cortisone shot.

By March 2, 2011, Mills was talking about Arias' career with concern. On April 5, Arias was throwing off a mound and looking good, but had a set-back on April 19 and flew back to Houston to get examined by the team doctor. He was placed on the 60-Day DL at the end of June, and was outrighted off the 40-man roster in October.

So. Who is to blame for what happened to Alberto Arias? Cecil Cooper rode him hard in 2009, but ultimately what sent him down the injury path were knee and hamstring issues (and remember, the hamstring issue was a result of slipping in the bullpen). Now, was the knee issue a result of poor delivery? Was Arias pushed to return due to a questionable bullpen heading into 2010? Was the shoulder injury overcompensating from a dodgy knee, and things just snowballed? Was it a complete breakdown of the entire system as a whole? It's hard to say for sure. But while Cooper started him down the path, Cooper was gone long before Arias' career was in question.

More minor leaguers cut loose

Once again, Jayne over at What the Heck, Bobby? has learned of more minor league cuts. Getting the axe this time are pitchers Alberto Arias and Blake King, catcher Emerson Frostad, and 1B/OF Jordan Brown.

Minor league moves a'plenty

Jayne over at What the Heck, Bobby? has news of more minor league retirements and cuts. Steve Martin and Justin Shults retired, and David Flores, Ebert Rosario, Jimmy Van Ostrand, and Lance Pendleton were released.

I'm a bit surprised to see David Flores released given our lack of depth at third base and his successful season at Lancaster last year.

Astros release Livan Hernandez

So it just came down the pipe that the Astros have released Livan Hernandez from his minor-league deal today. There is, in my bones, a strange feeling of confidence in the front office. Honestly, if Ed Wade was still GM, do you think that Duke and Hernandez would have been released? I don't. As with the Duke signing, and subsequent release, Livan was a low-risk, high-(possible-) reward signing. It didn't work out, and so they move on. Not in June, but right now. However this team fares in the standings this year, I have more confidence in the franchise than I have since 2005. And you?

So, projected rotation:
1. Wandy
2. Norris
3. Happ
4. Weiland
5. Lyles*

*Lucas Harrell could find himself in this spot, as he is out if options, and Lyles could head to OKC.

Random random Astro - Scott Servais

This installment of RRA is all about catcher Scott Servais. Scott was drafted by the Astros in the 3rd round of the 1988 draft. After a couple of rough seasons in the minors, he put together a solid season in AAA Tucson in 1991 and earned a call-up. He would stay with the major league club until June of 1995 when he was traded along with Luis Gonzalez to the Cubs for catcher Rick Wilkins. Scott re-signed with Houston for 2001 when he split the season between Houston and AAA New Orleans. It would be his last season in the majors.

For his Houston career Scott hit .225/.284/.357 and caught 23% of base stealers. His best season with the Astros was 1993, when he hit .244/.313/.415 with 11 homers in 291 plate appearances while finishing 3rd in the National League in fielding percentage among catchers at .996.

A pair of games for Servais stand out as strong individual efforts. On May 26, 1992 the Astros went to Montreal to take on the Expos. That afternoon Scott went 3 for 3 at the plate with two doubles and two RBI before being removed in the 7th inning for a pinch runner. Both RBI came on a two run double off of Montreal starter Chris Nabholz in the second inning that gave the Astros an early lead as Houston went on to win 9-4.

Arguably the best game of his Astros tenure came on June 11, 1993. On that night Houston went to play the expansion Colorado Rockies in Colorado for the first time. Scott was 3 for 3 with two runs scored and one RBI on a solo homerun. That homerun came in the eighth inning off Rockies reliever Jeff Parrett and tied the game back up at 4-4. Unfortunately Houston would end up losing that came 5-4.

Scott is currently assistant GM for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Prior to that he was senior director of player development for the Texas Rangers.

Minor league rosters

Some chatter on twitter from a few minor league players is indicating that minor league rosters may be set. We'll update as we get more information.

*Edit* So far this is what we've heard. I should note that the rosters have not been finalized, so some of this could change this weekend. Hat tip to Brooks over at The Crawfish Boxes for most of these.

Lexington - Bushue, Folty, Gouvea, Chowning, Muren, Jordan Scott. Hat tip to The Grand Old Game for Quevedo, Luis Cruz. Scooped by yours truly are Gominsky, King, Zach Johnson, Todd, Howick, Duffy, Pena, Kvasnicka, Hamblin, and DDJ.

Lancaster -Valenzuela, Mier, Kike Hernandez, Gabriel Garcia, Jorge De Leon, Streilein, Juan Minaya, George Springer, Sogard

Corpus Christi - Adam Bailey, Chris Wallace, Wates, Kreke, Hicks, Zeid


OKC - Dallas Keuchel

In addition, Ryan Cole has retired, and Justin Shults is no longer with the organization for as yet unknown reasons.

More major league cuts

As reported by the triumvirate of Astros newsbreakers Houston has removed five more from the major league roster this morning. Infielders Angel Sanchez, Scott Moore, and Brian Bixler have been reassigned to minor league camp, infielder Joe Thurston was released, and pitcher Enerio Del Rosario was optioned to the minor leagues.

Once you factor in the pending move to the DL for Sergio Escalona, that leaves 33 in camp fighting for 25 spots.

More minor league cuts

It seems that there may have been another round of cuts in minor league camp this morning. All we know for sure is that outfielder Jon Gaston has been cut. Gaston had a monster season at Lancaster in 2009 when he hit 35 homeruns with a slash line of .278/.367/.598, but he's regressed in the two seasons since with Corpus Christi.

We'll update as more names come out.

*Edit: Jayne over at What the Heck, Bobby has posted the list of today's minor league cuts. The list includes pitchers Adam Champion, Robert Donovan, David Duncan, Justin Gill, Kyle Greenwalt, Matison Smith, and Brandt Walker, outfielders Jon Gaston and Devon Torrence, and catcher Jacob Meskin.

Astros release Duke, Cust

The Astros have released Zach Duke and Jack Cust, according to Alyson Footer.

Honestly, it was easy to see this coming. I texted my cousin, a Braves fan, on Sunday afternoon and said that the Braves should be charged with murdering Zach Duke's career. In the previous post, we looked at Duke's stats, and his outing on Sunday sent his ERA up to 11.30 - and judging from Sunday's start (which I watched), he was lucky that's as high as it went.

Cust had one hit - a single - in 25 ABs this Spring. That's pretty much all you needed to know. Cust signed a two-year contract with the Astros - $600,000 (not-guaranteed) for 2012, and a guaranteed $1m option, if it was exercised.

Duke's contract was a minor-league deal, so there should be no major financial impact.

Also, it appears as though Jon Gaston has been released, as well. Gaston was the Astros' 7th Round pick in 2008, and busted out in 2009 - his 2nd year of pro ball - with Lancaster, hitting .278/.367/.598, with 35HR (tied for minor-league lead) and 100RBI. 81 of his 144 hits in '09 were for extra-bases. In the last two seasons - both with Corpus - he posted OPSeses of .720, and .646, respectively, striking out 212 times to 74 walks (he drew 71 walks in 2009 alone).

A few Spring Training stats for you

And we of course take this for what it's worth, but here's a little check-in with some notable stats (arranged by ABs):

Name	ABs	Avg/OBP/SLG	K:BB
Johnson	40	.325/.325/.750	8:0
Martinez	40	.275/.286/.450	6:1
Wallace	39	.282/.326/.436	7:3
Bogusevic	35	.171/.310/.200	9:6
Lee	33	.333/.371/.576	5:2
Downs	31	.194/.212/.290	5:1
Lowrie	30	.333/.444/.667	4:5
Castro	29	.276/.313/.310	7:2
Snyder	27	.296/.355/.667	3:2
Cust	25	.040/.200/.040	8:5
Schafer	23	.391/.481/.522	2:4

How about some pitching stats, with rotation candidates:

Name	IP	ERA/WHIP	K:BB
Weiland	16	2.25/1.25	8:7
Lyles	15.2	6.32/1.66	9:3
Duke	14.1	11.30/2.16	8:6
Happ	13.2	6.59/2.27	5:7
Wandy	10	8.10/2.20	3:7
Norris	9	5.00/1.22	5:6

Report: Berkman apologizes to Selig

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch says that Lance Berkman has apparently apologized to Selig over the Extortion remarks.

Berkman:
"I basically apologized for using the word 'extortion.' I had a chance to tell him where I was coming from and he had a chance to explain where he was coming from."

Cardinals Chairman Bill DeWitt:
"I tried to explain the process and how it played out. The concept was endorsed by the (players') union to have two leagues with 15 teams in each. It was approved by a 30-0 vote of the owners. It's an unfair situation if you have a division like the National League Central, where you have to beat five teams to win it, compared to (the American League West) where you only have to beat three teams. It's more symmetrical — and much fairer — to have three five-team divisions in each league."

Berkman, on Selig - who was not happy:
"Several sources told me he was not pleased with my remarks. I didn't expect him to be. I knew he was going to be a little upset. Having read them and having some time to reflect, I realized there wasn't any need to be quite that over the top."

Now, if Berkman had said something along the lines of "No, it wasn't extortion. But coercion...?"

Everyone reacts to everything today

So what with some decent cuts being made today, Brian McTaggart has the reactions.

Mills, on Paredes not only going to OKC (where he's never played, by the by), but playing 2B:
"The staff sat down and had a long meeting about it and went through these things, and we feel it's going to be best for him, best for the organization, as we move forward."

Luhnow:
"When Paredes was with the Yankees, he started at shortstop and he got moved to second base, and really I was trying to figure out from the time I got here why he was at third base, because he really does have all the skillset and tools to play the middle infield. It sounded to me like the decision was made to maybe accommodate other players who were moving around, like Altuve and so forth."

Johnson, on being the favorite for 3B1:
"I'm trying to not worry about it, because they haven't said, 'Yeah, you're the third baseman,' yet. When that day comes, I'll be pretty excited. That just means I have the upper hand and have to lock it in right now and just take it.

Paredes among latest round of cuts, moved to 2B

This morning Zachary Levine reported that the Astros sent six more players down to minor league camp. Jimmy Paredes may have been the most surprising, as some considered him the favorite for the starting third base position after he came into this year as the incumbent. That job will likely fall to Chris Johnson to start the season, although Brett Wallace is still in the mix. Additionally, it was announced that Paredes would move back to second base, which had been his primary position before last season.

Also sent down were outfielders Fernando Martinez and Brad Snyder and pitchers Aneury Rodriguez, Xavier Cedeno, and Jose Valdez.

A handy little note from Brian McTaggart

Brian McTaggart just tweeted out a helpful little note:

As the Astros continue to trim roster in next few days, remember Wright, Bogusevic, Schafer, Sosa and Harrell are out of options.

So, this means that they would have to pass through waivers before getting officially sent to Oklahoma City. If another team claims them, well, they'll just have to work something out.

Astros rank #18

Baseball America posted their 2012 Organizational Talent Rankings this morning, and we find the Astros at #18.

Last year, the Astros ranked #26, and were dead last in 2009.

From first glance, it looks as though that was the second-largest jump from 2011 to 2012 - with the Drunken Sailors jumping from #14 to #1 in 2012.

Grant Brisbee's Astros Preview

Grant Brisbee is easily one of the funniest baseball writers (you may even be able to drop the "baseball," but I've never read any of his fiction, so we'll leave it in) around, and he wrote his Astros preview. At least he's sweet about it.

Money Quote:
The Astros probably would have liked to acquire baseball players who were good relative to their peers. They did not.

Astros valued at $549m

The Astros' value went up 16%, increasing the dollar-figure to a roundabout $549m, according to Forbes.

Of course, Crane bought the franchise (and a stake in the RSN) for $610m last year. Among the statistics presented by Forbes, the franchise's revenue is $196m. Let's take a look:

Year	Val	Rev.	OpInc	Gate	+/i %	D/V
2006	$442m	$184m	$18.4m	xx	+6%	12%
2007	$463m	$193m	$20.4m	xx	+5%	12%
2008	$445m	$194m	$17m	xx	-4%	12%
2009	$453m	$189m	$7.1m	xx	+7.1%	12%
2010	$474m	$197m	$14.4m	$67m	+8%	12%
2011	$549m	$196m	$24.3m	$62m	+16%	41%

Val = Value (obviously)
Rev = Revenue
OpInc = Operating Income
Gate = Gate Receipts
+/- % = 1-yr Value Change
D/V = Debt/Value (Includes Stadium Debt)
---

Do with this what you will, but from 2006-11 the value of the franchise has increased from $442m to $549m, an increase of 24.2%.

Crawfish Boxes on statistics

We've made no effort to move in on The Crawfish Boxes' corner of statistical analysis. Astros County is more like the New York Post of Astros blogs - snappy headlines, seedy content - and that's totally fine with us (Trostel is, by far, better than I at statistical analysis, as well as prospect breakdowns).

We link to this excellent piece from David Coleman about Predictive Stats vs. Illustrative Stats on WAR and BABIP - as BABIP took quite the hit yesterday in the comments section of the Chapman piece. Read at your leisure.

Brian McTaggart guesses the Opening Day roster

Over here, Brian McTaggart makes some predictions about the Opening Day roster. Click the link for full explanations, but it's as follows:

Catchers: Castro, Snyder
Infielders: Lee, Altuve, Johnson, Lowrie, Downs, Wallace
Outfielders: J.D. Martinez, Schafer, Bogusevic, Shuck, Buck
Rotation: Wandy, Norris, Happ, Livan, Weiland
Bullpen: Myers, Lopez, Carpenter, F-Rod, Lyon, Abad, Duke.

Notice a couple of things about this: Both Rule 5 picks (Marwin Gonzalez, Rhiner Cruz) are projected to go back to their respected teams. Also, Jordan Lyles and Jimmy Paredes are projected to go back to OKC for more seasoning. If true, that's a half-season of service time burned right the hell up.

Tailgating at Minute Maid to be determined soon

On the heels of the City Council's approval of outdoor drinking downtown, Jim Crane said he'd determine whether or not the Astros will approve tailgating at Minute Maid parking lots "within a week."

Crane:
"We would be leaning toward a fan-friendly situation if we can accommodate it. That'll be my preference. But there's consequences with that, with cleanup and where you do it and how you contain it and make sure it's safe and all those things, so that's what we're reviewing."

Five players cut

Farmstros has a list of five minor-leaguers who were cut this week:

Wander Alvino
Jordan Comadena
Bryce Lane
Mike Ness
Jose Vargas
Bubby Williams

What the Heck, Bobby also says that former A&M catcher Kevin Gonzalez voluntarily retired.

Comadena was obviously an AC favorite, and Bubby Williams won the 2nd annual Adopt-A-Player poll.

On Selig extorting Jim Crane

Somewhat lost in the shuffle of yesterday's trade (but more important on a national-interest level) was Lance Berkman eviscerating Bud Selig over realignment, and moving the Astros to the American League.

Berkman:
I feel basically like the commissioner extorted Jim Crane into moving the Astros.

Well, a few of our media favorites let mean old Lance have it for giving it to Mr. Selig.

Troll-in-residence Jon Heyman:
We all love berkman, but how can it be "extortion" w/ MLB reducing #astros cost $50M to get them to go? That's a deal, not extortion.

He continued to refer to the realignment as a business deal, and even provided a definition, straight outta Merriam-Webster:
extortion: "unlawful obtaining of property from another induced by wrongful use of actual or threatened force, violence or fear''

Our lovable Chicago-based writer, Phil Rogers, even came to Selig's defense:
...There would have been nothing wrong with (Berkman's) position if he had said that Selig “pressured" the Astros into moving. That’s exactly what Selig did.

He did it because he was getting pressure from the players association, of which Berkman is, of course, a member, to address the lack of fairness in having 16 teams in one league and 14 in the other. This was much more of an issue with the union than Major League Baseball.

In fact, it’s possible that the union would not have agreed to increase the number of playoff teams from eight to 10 if MLB hadn’t found a way to change the math. And Selig’s hands are largely tied on matters of realignment.

So here we have four plot lines:

1. Berkman doesn't know what "Extortion" means.
2. Realignment was a business decision.
3. Berkman hates Bud Selig, and wore him out in the media.
4. Selig couldn't really do anything and if Berkman didn't like it, he could have bucked the MLBPA and said so.

To #1: No, Jim Crane was not extorted, because his property was not taken from him unlawfully. Crane didn't have to pay Selig $50m to keep unflattering pictures off of Deadspin. There's a fine line between extortion and blackmail. Crane received a partial refund for giving in.

What Berkman probably meant to say was that Selig coerced Crane into accepting the move to the American League, as one definition of Coercion is:
The intimidation of a victim to compel the individual to do some act against his or her will by the use of psychological pressure, physical force, or threats.

If we're talking about a will (as in, the death kind), if someone is "forced to make provisions in his or her will that he or she otherwise would not make if permitted to act according to free choice. It is an element of both duress and Undue Influence."

Should this take place, the will can be declared nullified.Whether or not this applies in this situation, I guess, depends on whether or not you're a Letter of the Law or a Spirit of the Law type of person.

Regardless, it was pretty clear that Jim Crane had two choices:
1) Accept the move, and get approved as owner by the other owners.
2) Don't accept the move, and the sale gets rejected.

Hey, I took the LSAT. I didn't do anything with it, but I still took it. And that sounds to me more like coercion than extortion. In the original piece, Crane said:

"I think it was a good deal for baseball. I think it was a good deal for our owners. Would we have preferred to stay in the National League? Probably, yeah. But that wasn't the deal that was presented to us."

So a scenario in which the Astros stayed in the NL was never on the table, apparently. And, under Crane's own admission, he would have kept the Astros in the National League. The rules changed during the process, and Crane ultimately agreed.

To Point #2: We can argue all day about Crane's role in this. And before y'all start thinking about Heyman's definition of a business deal, let's not give him too much creative thinking credit, because Crane said as much yesterday. Crane is perfectly willing to admit that Lance's language was a bit strong, that it was the cost of doing business. If Crane doesn't want to pursue any additional action, or concessions, then that's his business. He wanted a baseball team, and he got one, albeit not the one he thought he was getting - a National League one. But why wouldn't he say it was a business deal? Owners who got on Selig's bad side (cough, Frank McCourt, cough) don't typically have things turn out all sunshine and rainbows.

To Point #3: Yeah, I don't think Berkman likes Bud Selig. During the Hurricane Ike fiasco, Berkman said:
"Major League Baseball has always valued the dollar more than they do the individual, the players and their families."

To Point #4: We just don't know enough about the process to make an evaluation of Who Screwed The Astros: Selig, or the MLBPA? What's clear is that MLB took the path of least resistance in balancing the leagues. It's mentioned that the Diamondbacks could have switched to the AL, and the Astros to the NL West, which would have resulted in west coast trips to LA, San Francisco, and Colorado. MLB chose to piss off one fan base instead of two. We just happen to be the fanbase.

So to sum up: Yes, this sucks; No, there's not a whole lot we can do about it. Would you rather have Drayton/Ed in the NL, or Crane/Luhnow in the AL?

Tailgating approved at Minute Maid Park

The Houston City Council approved a measure that would allow tailgating at downtown sports stadiums.

Quintero will catch 2-4 times/week for KC

As the Royals are attempting to sort out their catcher situation, the KC Star's Bob Dutton wrote about the trade from the Royals' perspective.

GM Dayton Moore:
“We acquired (Quintero) to be a guy to catch two-to-four days a week. Ned (Yost) is just going to have to mix and match it (with Peña)."

And on Bourgeois:
“We like his versatility a great deal. He’s somebody who has been very successful against left-handed pitching (40 for 101 in 2011).”

Felipe Paulino had nice things to say about Q:
“That’s my guy. He calls a good game, and his defense is impressive. You’ll see that. He’s like Salvador that way. He’s got good hands, and he releases the ball really quick. He’s a good catcher. That’s what we’re looking for.”

Paulino, in 86 games, has allowed a career .288/.361/.450 against. With Quintero - who has caught Paulino more than any other catcher (29 times) - his slash line against is .281/.352/.457. With Pudge, Castro, and Towles behind the plate, Paulino's OPS-against was 1.344, 1.178, and .908, respectively.

"The Astros were dial-up, now they're nearing 4G"

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold has an article on former Cardinal Jeff Luhnow, and his resurrection process of the Astros. It's a good article (because Goold is a good writer), but there are a couple of things to note:

Jim Crane:
"That's something we were told if we wanted to own a team we'd have to go to the American League, and that meant if it was us or anybody. The fans like the National League, but it was out of our control. ... I told the guys if we're going to win the World Series, we're going to have to beat everybody, so what's the difference?"

Goold:
Luhnow said Houston's use of statistics in 2011 was similar to the Cardinals when he arrived in 2003. That's been brought up to speed. They were dial-up, now they're nearing 4G.

Luhnow, on the farm system:
"We're trying to take a farm system that by many third-party views is in the bottom five of baseball and turn into a top-five system. Part of doing that is acquiring prospects any way you can. We have to deal from areas where we have depth. And we're going to do it again, too."

Assessing the deal

There's not going to be a whole lot here that you haven't likely already perused, but let's give this a shot:

*This is another win for Jeff Luhnow. Quintero was clearly the C3 on the roster, and Bourgeois was rendered...not useless, but expendable, by Jordan Schafer. Thing is, the Astros have a few players on the roster who can do what Bourgeois does. Quintero, while he has the 11th-best Caught Stealing percentage among active catchers (32.2%), he also averaged a 60 OPS+ from 2008-11. Bourgeois had a career-high .680 OPS in 2011, but from August 1-end of season, he hit .225/.265/.252. The fact that the Astros flipped them for a Down The Road ML-caliber reliever and another potential prospect is a good thing.

*Like many trades we've seen in the past two years, it's just going to take a while to know for sure. Chapman, and the PTBNL (whom Jordan Sams, via TCB, speculates on here) aren't likely to be ready to see Big League action...maybe until late 2013.

*With the departure of Quintero, Wandy Rodriguez is the only remaining Astro who touched the field in the World Series season of 2005.

PTBNL will be key

Jeff Luhnow said today that the PTBNL in the Bourgeois/Quintero trade will be key:

"I can't really disclose when we're going to do it, but all I can really say on that is the player to be named later is a key component to this deal."

And on Chapman?
"He's a prospect for us and he's adding to our organizational depth at the Minor League level. I don't know if he's a Double-A or Triple-A guy this year, but he's not Major League-ready. He's a guy down the road that could be an elite left-handed pitcher, and that's a valuable commodity to have."

Doing the math on Wandy's wins

ESPN took a good hard look at the number of wins Wandy can expect in 2012.

Click the link for the hard math, but here's your money quote:
Quite frankly, a range of 14-16 wins seems quite reasonable to expect this season. When you throw in the "X-factor" of a potential trade to a contending team -- and the probable resulting increase in run support and, ultimately, victories -- as the trade deadline approaches, then the chances of Rodriguez reaching that range would seem to be even more of a legitimate likelihood.

You just might be able to tailgate at Minute Maid

Tomorrow, the Houston City Council will weigh a proposal that would allow fans to tailgate, something that only Texans fans get to do, and it all comes courtesy of the Dynamo.

A city ordinance prohibits an open container or public consumption of alcohol within the central business district, which the new Dynamo stadium is located in. Mayor Annise Parker and city council members are working to give soccer fans the same privileges as Texans fans.

A city spokesman said that the Rockets and Astros have shown no interest in letting fans tailgate - but this could change that.