Livan came to Houston thinking he'd be SP4

Fox Sports South has an article up about Livan Hernandez, and his time with the Astros...

Hernandez said he had signed with the Astros in the offseason with the understanding that he would be their No. 4 starter. He struggled in two of his five spring training starts for the Astros, who released him with a 1-2 record and 5.63 ERA. Instead of waiting around for a team to give him another starting shot, Hernandez took the Braves’ offer.

Yes, he struggled in 40% of his starts. But perhaps this has something to do with it.

The Astros dodged a bullet with this Livan Hernandez fella

Now he's the Barves' problem (not a typo). Because not only is Hernandez losing a decent chunk of change, he's kinda sorta been tied to a Puerto Rican drug lord.

So: Livan owes SunTrust $469,387.22. He also had a Lamborghini Murceliago repossessed that was registered to him, but actually owned by Angel Ayala Vazquez who, last April, was convicted on drug charges relating to his conspiracy to distribute cocaine, heroin, and pills in public housing projects in San Juan, and sentenced to life in prison.

The linked Washington Times article even says that:
Hernandez, 36, is the target of a Federal money-laundering investigation in connection with the case, where he’s suspected of being a straw-buyer for Ayala Vazquez.

Astros release Livan Hernandez

So it just came down the pipe that the Astros have released Livan Hernandez from his minor-league deal today. There is, in my bones, a strange feeling of confidence in the front office. Honestly, if Ed Wade was still GM, do you think that Duke and Hernandez would have been released? I don't. As with the Duke signing, and subsequent release, Livan was a low-risk, high-(possible-) reward signing. It didn't work out, and so they move on. Not in June, but right now. However this team fares in the standings this year, I have more confidence in the franchise than I have since 2005. And you?

So, projected rotation:
1. Wandy
2. Norris
3. Happ
4. Weiland
5. Lyles*

*Lucas Harrell could find himself in this spot, as he is out if options, and Lyles could head to OKC.

It's a fight to the death for the rotation

Your starting rotation is as follows:

1. Wandy Rodriguez
2. Bud Norris
3. J.A. Happ

And two of Livan Hernandez, Zach Duke, Kyle Weiland, and Jordan Lyles. Lucas Harrell and Henry Sosa won't be in the rotation, but are competing for bullpen spots with the big club.

The tale of the tape (Spring Training 2012 edition):

Livan: 12.1IP, 16H/6ER, 5K:2BB, 2HR. 4.38 ERA/1.70 WHIP.
Duke: 11IP, 17H/8ER, 7K:4BB, 2HR. 6.55 ERA/1.91 WHIP.
Weiland: 11IP, 7H/2ER, 7K:5BB, 0HR. 1.64 ERA/1.09 WHIP.
Lyles: 6IP, 8H/4ER, 3K:2BB, 1HR. 6.00 ERA/1.67 WHIP.

We do know that Lyles threw in a minor-league game, so there are some stats that we're missing here. The clear leader - from these stats alone - is Kyle Weiland (yes, on the strength of one start). But the veteran statuses of Livan all but assures him a spot. With Myers shifting to the 9th inning, I'd be ecstatic to see Weiland and Lyles get those last two rotation spots. But I don't think that'll happen. What I could see happening is SP4 going to Livan, SP5 going to Weiland, and Lyles waits in OKC under the tutelage of Burt Hooton until something happens - be that injury or trade.

Livan Hernandez hit by line drive

Livan Hernandez left after 2.1IP today after getting hit (in the leg) by a line drive off the bat of Ryan Zimmerman. Which is, apparently, nothing to worry about.

Livan:
"I feel good now, but we'll see tomorrow. There's nothing to worry about. I had one more hitter, so it's better to go out there."

More on this Brett Myers thing

...I've now had some time to think more about this Brett Myers situation. Freeing up 200IP in the rotation is a major plus for a guy who took a significant step backwards in 2011 (as if no one could have predicted such a thing), the first year of a possible three-year deal.

Myers just wasn't as effective in 2011 - when he was making $8m - as opposed to 2010, when he was making $3.1m. That's not good economics. We can debate all day about how Wade should have traded Myers at the 2010 trade deadline, but he didn't, and now the Astros have the 3rd-most expensive closer in basbeall.

But if Jeff Luhnow wants to create an atmosphere of winning, then the bullpen had to be addressed. The fact is, the Astros lost 22 games in 2011 when they were either ahead or tied going into the 8th inning. If the Astros hold on to half of those leads, their record is 67-95. Not fun, by any means, but not considered one of the worst teams of all time.

Maybe his velocity will return. Mitch Williams said on Clubhouse Confidential that Myers wasn't all that smart, and maybe a reliever role was more suited for Myers than starting, and that Myers preferred to come out of the bullpen. That may all be well and good, but we're also looking at a player's velocity from five years ago as a guide for what his fastball can do. And I'm a touch uncomfortable with that.

Also, freeing up a rotation spot is a good idea for the Astros to see what they have in their young arms. Reportedly. But McTaggart said yesterday that the move "all but guarantees" a spot for Livan Hernandez. Should that be the course of action, the Astros traded 200+IP from a 30-year old pitcher for 200+IP from a 37-year old pitcher.

In 2011, Myers threw 216IP at an 85 ERA+. Livan Hernandez threw 175.1IP at an 87 ERA+_with a higher WHIP (1.40 for Livan, 1.31 for Myers). I'm struggling to see how this is an upgrade. If Myers' spot would be used for seeing what Lyles/Harrell/Sosa/Weiland could do (and yes, that could still happen), it would be a different matter altogether - for me, anyway, humble pants-less basement-dwelling momma's boy blogger.

And what of his trade value? Myers will get $11m this season, and his contract has been reworked to where his $10m vesting option for 2013 can be reached. Should Myers be traded on July 31, that would be before the Astros' 105th game of the season (there's a brutal stretch of 20 games in 20 days immediately following the All Star Game), where - if we break down $11m into 162 games - he would be owed about $3.9m for the rest of the season. Depending on whether or not his option vests, receiving teams would be inheriting that ~$3.9m plus the $10m option, should it vest, or the $3m buyout. That's an awful lot of scratch for a reliever, especially one who had not previously relieved for five years. The Astros would have to eat a lot of the contract, regardless of his role, anyway, so it's a question of whether a team would be willing to pay half ($7m-ish) for whatever Myers does in the first half, and then projects over the next season and a half.

Ultimately, it's a matter of whether or not Myers can do the job. And whether or not his rotation replacement can, as well. That remains to be seen. I don't hate the idea. But I don't love it, either.

Livan Hernandez is in some financial trouble

Via Native_Astro, we get this story from the Washington Times about Livan Hernandez' financial problems:

Hernandez owes SunTrust Bank $469,387.22 from a line of credit and promissory note, according to a summary judgement entered against him in October.

Meanwhile, Hernandez has guaranteed a rotation spot to open the season...
"I can not give many details," Hernandez told the El Nuevo Herald in remarks translated from Spanish. "But, yes, I will be in the rotation."

He has to be in the rotation to pay off The Man From SunTrust

Livan Hernandez - Hall of Famer

There has been some outcry among fans, and jokes among national writers, about the Astros signing of Livan Hernandez to a minor league deal. But I say they're missing the historical significance of this unquestionably dominant pitcher.

Ok, by now you're already typing your "Juvenile Court Clerk is an idiot" comments, and that's ok. I realize this in depth analysis will be lost on many readers. I'm willing to take the heat to get this historically important conversation started.

You see, most BBWAA members often start looking at two things when determining whether or not to vote a player into the HOF: a dominant peak and longevity. For example, CBS Sports writer Jon Heyman explained this very process when he was talking about Jack Morris' HOF candidacy. Here's what he says:

Morris' detractors generally point to one unextraordinary number, and while it's an important number, it should not define his career. His lifetime ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame, and his ERA plus of 105 is barely above average. But Morris pitched deep into his games and deep into his middle age, trampling his lifetime ERA. Morris is known by teammates to have pitched to the score, which enabled him to win more games than anyone else in the '80s and 254 games overall. (The leading winners in the seven preceding decades are all in the Hall.) In seven seasons, he received Cy Young votes. So he had plenty of great years.
Morris was a bulldog who refused to leave games. He completed 175 of them, and that doesn't even count Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, in which he turned in one of the greatest pitching performances in baseball history to help his hometown Twins beat the Braves 1-0 and win the Series. Morris was considered a great pitcher during his career, not someone who was defined by less meaningful games that dragged his ERA up beyond a representative number.

Well, we all have heard by now that wins are falling out of favor as a measurement of pitching success, so I got to thinking what else would indicate an ability to "pitch deep into games and deep into middle age"? How else could we determine who "was a bulldog who refused to leave games"? I propose that such profound questions can be answered by looking at innings pitched. After all, you can't rack up high innings totals without pitching deep into games for multiple years, right?  But how do we determine where to set the bar? Again, let's use the same process esteemed BBWAA member Jon Heyman uses above. Let's look at who the innings pitched leaders are by decade and how they fared in HOF voting.


1880's - Pud Galvin - HOF member
1890's - Kid Nichols - HOF member
1900's - Cy Young - HOF member
1910's - Walter Johnson - HOF member
1920's - Burleigh Grimes - HOF member
1930's - Carl Hubbell - HOF member
1940's - Hal Newhouser - HOF member
1950's - Robin Roberts - HOF member
1960's - Don Drysdale - HOF member
1970's - Gaylord Perry - HOF member
1980's - Jack Morris - Not HOF member, but gaining support
1990's - Greg Maddux - Not HOF member, but possible first ballot selection


Wow, that's 12 straight decades of innings leaders who are either already in or likely to be in the HOF. That's an even stronger indicator than Jon Heyman's win leader by decade, right? So who was the leader in the 2000's? None other than Houston's newest starting pitcher, Livan Hernandez.


Who's joking now?

Astros sign Livan Hernandez

Ken Rosenthal is reporting via a source that the Astros have signed Livan Hernandez to a minor-league contract, with an invitation to Spring Training.

Hernandez is now 36 (he'll be 37 on February 20). He's spent the last two seasons and change with the Nationals, where in 2010/11, he threw 387IP, 415H/173ER, 213K:110BB, for a 4.02 ERA/1.36 WHIP. FanGraphs lists his xFIP at 4.57 in 2010, and 4.28 in 2011, with 4.8 WAR in those two seasons.

Back in September, FanGraphs' Eric Seidman had this to say about Livan:
He was always hittable and lacked top-notch stuff, but understood his limitations and smartly broke down the opposition. While it’s laughable to picture Hernandez teaching Stephen Strasburg how to throw 84-mph slop, it’s tough to imagine many pitchers better suited to teach these young arms. After all, you don’t tally 36 WAR on the mound, over 15 seasons and with subpar stuff, without having plenty of pitching know-how. For $1 million this season, the Nationals got 175+ league average innings and a second pitching coach. Not a bad investment at all.

Mark Berman has your quote via Luhnow:
"Livan has been doing it. Ever since he came over from Cuba many years ago, he's been an effective pitcher."