## Thursday, April 5, 2012

### 2012 Astros Projections

Before I reveal the numbers, I want to explain how I came up with them. I'll keep it brief.

First, I needed to determine everyone's playing time. For this, I used the depth charts (may be behind a premium content firewall) over at Baseball Prospectus as a guide and adjusted where I felt necessary. Using those percentages and the average number of plate appearances per team last season I arrived at everyone's projected plate appearances. I used a similar idea for the pitchers' innings, again tweaking where I felt best.

Once I had everyone's playing time set, I turned my attention to the rate stats. For the hitters that meant walk rates, strikeout rates, rates of extra base hits, etc. Again, the process was very similar for the pitchers. These rates were derived from a loose averaging of the projections available at Fangraphs and the players career averages. Minor adjustments were made for those with very small major league sample sizes. From there, simple multiplication spit out their projections.

For the W-L record, I simply plugged the projected runs scored and runs against into the Pythagorean win theorem formula and out popped  the projected record. Last year our Pythagorean record was 62-100, meaning in theory we under achieved by six wins.

Obviously any major changes in roster make up (trades, injuries, etc) could change things dramatically.

I feel like it's a little optimistic, but I can't find any major errors in the formulas or calculations.

Screw it, I'm running with it!

 PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS Lee 600 556 70 151 31 1 23 94 2 44 59 0.272 0.326 0.455 0.781 Altuve 578 556 66 160 32 3 5 58 19 22 72 0.287 0.314 0.382 0.696 Martinez 555 517 68 146 33 0 15 86 0 38 109 0.282 0.332 0.435 0.767 Schafer 489 445 60 109 18 3 4 24 23 44 107 0.244 0.312 0.326 0.638 Lowrie 478 434 59 112 30 4 10 61 2 44 82 0.258 0.326 0.417 0.744 Castro 455 410 53 97 19 2 5 46 0 45 81 0.237 0.312 0.332 0.644 Johnson 421 402 39 107 23 3 11 51 3 19 99 0.266 0.299 0.416 0.715 Bogusevic 414 378 51 97 19 2 7 35 10 36 91 0.257 0.322 0.378 0.700 Downs 404 373 46 94 30 0 13 52 1 31 77 0.251 0.308 0.438 0.746 Shuck 298 268 37 72 9 3 1 10 8 30 33 0.268 0.343 0.332 0.675 Ruggiano 297 278 35 70 13 0 9 33 5 19 75 0.250 0.297 0.398 0.695 Snyder 270 235 26 54 11 0 9 34 0 35 62 0.228 0.328 0.390 0.718 Gonzalez 270 256 29 68 13 2 2 23 4 14 35 0.265 0.303 0.357 0.661 Buck 231 213 25 51 13 2 6 25 2 18 46 0.241 0.300 0.399 0.700 Wallace 165 152 16 39 9 0 3 13 0 13 39 0.257 0.317 0.389 0.706 F. Martinez 164 154 17 36 8 0 3 14 3 10 34 0.231 0.278 0.339 0.617 Sanchez 61 57 7 15 2 0 0 5 0 4 9 0.256 0.307 0.309 0.616 Team Totals 6150 5683 706 1475 315 26 127 662 82 467 1110 0.260 0.316 0.391 0.707

So, how does the offense compare to last season? Well, that would give us 91 more runs scored, 32 more home runs, 66 more walks, 54 fewer strikeouts, and an OPS .023 higher than last year. To put it another way, these projections would give us an essentially league average offense. At first glance only Carlos Lee's numbers look especially optimistic to me.