Thursday Evening Hot Links

Yeah, I know there was one this morning. But! Baseball is back. We can debate the wisdom of even attempting to fly around the country and play in front of zero fans in the middle of a global pandemic. I've caught heat for being a "Corona Bro" (actually it was "Cornoa Bro" but that tweet was deleted) which, if I recall from the context, means that I think the government should be more proactive in stopping the spread of a virus that at least four million Americans have caught by implementing the European model of paying employers to keep their payrolls intact. And I do think that! There's a very clear playbook on how to weather an economic storm created by a global pandemic, and we just...threw it out the window. This is the first time I'm actually not excited about baseball being played since 2011. It's not that I don't want baseball to be played, I just think it's a high-risk/low-reward scenario. We have no idea of the long-term impacts of COVID-19. We know that you can be asymptomatic and spread it, we know that actual symptoms vary from person to person, from a stuffy nose, to permanent organ damage. I do not think we should just shut everything down until there's a vaccine. But as someone who does actually look at history for a living, you can't Business-As-Usual it. You just have to understand that these things come along periodically throughout human history, and I don't think it's unreasonable to allow for time to adjust to a Brand New Virus. For me, the last four months have shown me who I really am - and lot of who I regularly interact with really are. It's not been a pleasant journey, and I would like it to end (the virus, not my journey). Anyway, Baseball, I think!

Welcome back, old friend. It is so good to see you. #OpeningDay

🖊️ Written by Tom Verducci
🎙️ Narrated by Jon Hamm pic.twitter.com/wO1R01rWrG

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 23, 2020

*The Astros set their 30-Man Roster in advance of tomorrow night's alleged season opener. Here they are, with their number of MLB games played in parentheses:

Infielders
Jose Altuve (1243)
Alex Bregman (517)
Carlos Correa (546)
Aledmys Diaz (389)
Yuli Gurriel (455)
Jack Mayfield (26)
Abraham Toro (25)

Outfielders
Michael Brantley (1199)
Josh Reddick (1195)
George Springer (744)
Myles Straw (65)
Kyle Tucker (50)

Catchers
Dustin Garneau (123)
Martin Maldonado (717)
Garrett Stubbs (19)

Pitchers
Bryan Abreu (7)
Brandon Bailey (0)
Joe Biagini (217)
Chris Devenski (221)
Zack Greinke (488)
Josh James (55)
Cristian Javier (0)
Lance McCullers (83)
Roberto Osuna (310)
Enoli Paredes (0)
Ryan Pressly (362)
Cy Sneed (8)
Blake Taylor (0)
Framber Valdez (34)
Justin Verlander (453)

That's 13 players out of 30 who have played in fewer than 100 MLB games (postseason not included), nine who have played in less than 50, and six - all pitchers - who have played in less than ten MLB games.

*Chandler Rome has your 30-Man Roster analysis.

For me, the only roster surprise is that Brandon Bielak didn't make it. He seemed ahead of Brandon Bailey throughout summer camp and has experience in Triple A whereas Bailey hasn't pitched above Double A.

— Jake Kaplan (@jakemkaplan) July 23, 2020

*Check out this great Joe Trezza story on Brandon Bailey.

*There is no update on Yordan Alvarez, or Jose Urquidy. Perhaps they never were... James Click, on the timetable for their return:
Unfortunately, I can't comment on timelines or expectations on that. We're doing everything we can to get them back on the field as soon as we possibly can.

*Here's how the 2020 Postseason will go:
-Top two teams in each division qualify for the postseason (12 teams)
-Two next best teams in each league qualify for the postseason (4 teams)
-1st Round: Best-of-Three Wild Card series, all played at the park of the team with the better record.
-1st Round winners advance to Best-of-Five division series
-Championship Series and World Series are Bests-of-Seven

*Dan Szymborski: The Official 2020 Preseason ZiPS projections. He projects the Astros at 35-25, two games better than Oakland, with a 43.9% to win the division, 15.9% to win a Wild Card (God knows there's gonna be 10 Wild Cards), 7.5% to win the World Series, behind only the Dodgers and Yankees.

Meanwhile, FanGraphs has their own Playoff Odds, which puts the Astros at 35.7-24.3, 62.5% to win the division, 17.2% to win a Wild Card spot, and 16.1% to win the World Series, behind only the Dodgers.

So, circling back (I'm a "Circle-Back" guy now), if we use FanGraphs' Playoff Odds as a guide for what the postseason would look like using their simulated numbers:

AL East: Yankees, Rays
AL Central: Twins, Spiders (the rebranded team in Cleveland)
AL West: Astros, A's
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, White Sox

NL East: Nationals, ATLiens (the rebranded team in Atlanta)
NL Central: Cubs, Brewers
NL West: Dodgers, Padres
NL Wild Cards: Mets, Reds

The six division winners - which would be the Astros, Yankees, and Twins in the AL; Dodgers, Nationals, and Cubs in the NL - would then pick their opponents in a five-hour selection show, leaving the two teams that did not get picked, I guess, to play each other. It's insane, I think. It just might be genius. Because let's say the Astros are blessed enough to pick their opponent. You think that, if they choose the White Sox (just throwing a name out there), that the White Sox won't feel the immense disrespect? To win the World Series this year, I think it means you have to win 13 games.

*Jake Kaplan, on what Mookie Betts' extension means for George Springer. TL;DR: Maybe not all that much.



*Dusty Baker and the Astros Foundation are giving 3,000 masks to people in homeless encampments around Houston.

*The Astros are still waiting on the results from their COVID tests after learning of Hunter Dozier's positive test.

*Juan Soto - who is still somehow 21 - tested positive for COVID-19 on the day the Nationals are to play the AL Silver Medalists to start the season.

*The Astros are 3rd in SI's Opening Day Power Rankings.

*Get your new Astros gear at ApolloHOU.

*Sam Miller: A Newbie's Guide to the 2020 Season.

*MLB players plan to stand for a "Moment of Unity" before this evening and Friday's games.

*SI's Emma Baccellieri: The end of missing baseball.

*Vice: 21 Non-Boring And Safe Ways To See Friends This Summer.

*Buzzfeed: Facebook's employees reckon with the social network they built.

*NY Times: How some janitors are asked to keep you virus-free.

*A Musical Selection:



Be happy in every moment you possibly can, but remember that there's comfort in grief.

Saturday Morning Hot Links

Do you have Sign-Stealing Tired Head? TOO BAD. It's going to dominate the early part of the offseason. We got a brief respite when the A&M guy tried to kill the Okie State guy but baseball has nothing on which to focus other than a rotating set of headlines like "Should The Astros Get It," "How Are The Astros Going To Get It," "Why The Astros Should Get It," "Why The Astros Didn't Get It Enough," and "Let's Make The Astros Get It More."

*Baseball Prospectus' Rob Arthur checked the audio data for trash can banging. MLB is moving quickly in its investigation into the Astros "culture," and they are now interviewing players.

You have to understand that the Astros are now an opportunity for MLB. Are the Astros guilty of stealing signs? I believe so. Are they the only ones doing it? I don't think so.

But, thanks to "tanking," thanks to Brady Aiken/Jacob Nix, thanks to defensive shifting, thanks to firing scouts, thanks to Astroball, thanks to Yuli's gesture at Yu Darvish, thanks to trading for Osuna, thanks to Verlander being an ass to the Detroit Writer Guy (with the Astros' media relations staff's blessing), thanks to Taubman, thanks to whatever injustice every other team feels when it comes to Jeff Luhnow and the Astros, it is a subtle opportunity for MLB to provide an outlet for all of the Baseball Community's frustration and Make An Example. Even if you don't think any of the above is worthy of getting all riled up about, other fan bases do and that's what's driving this whole thing. For an organization that tries as hard as possible to control their narrative (there are three points of contact with the media: Hinch, Luhnow, and Crane. Have you noticed that almost nobody else says anything?), this narrative is now outside of their control.

Never mind that Josh Hader (racist tweets as a young fella) and Aroldis Chapman (suspended for domestic violence) were honored as the relievers of the year in the Year of Our Lord 2019. Never mind that MLB has no idea what the actual physical baseball will do what at any given point. Never mind that the umpiring in the World Series was a disaster (I will go to my grave believing that Juan Soto should have struck out and Greinke would have kept pitching in Game 7). Before the 2019 postseason even started Bleacher Report's Scott Miller singled out Houston, Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and Arizona as being "especially adept" at stealing signs. Despite me literally just now doing what I'm about to tell you not to do, yelling "other teams did it too!" isn't going to move the needle.

This is where we are. Every time the Cardinals did basically anything and we all laughed about changing our passwords? That's about to get returned ten-fold. Forever. The day where Yankees fans sit back and have a reflective moment and think, "You know, we did this, too..." is not coming. It's how it is now. The narrative was already that the Astros spit in the face of baseball and all of her hallowed tradition. It's set now.

The Astros are going to get popped here. Probably loss of draft picks and a fine that won't do much in the way of denting Jim Crane's bottom line. Maybe international spending money, as well. But MLB has an opportunity to flex its muscle, punish the Astros for the "culture" that created Taubman, and also to let the Astros serve as a warning to the rest of the league.

Beyond the Box Score: Legally, why the sign-stealing matters. Click the link for what the Astros and Martha Stewart just might have in common.

*Jake Kaplan takes a look at the state of Astros catchers in 2020.

Team leader in Games Caught, Astros:
2019: Robinson Chirinos (112)
2018: Max Stassi (83)
2017: Brian McCann (95)
2016: Jason Castro (111)

*The Athletic's Chad Jennings worked through his thought process in how he ended up with Trout as MVP, and Bregman as runner-up.

*Thoughts & prayers to Alex Bregman, who has lost two grandparents in the last month.

*There's a new proposed rule that would eliminate the 10-Day IL for pitchers, returning it to 15 days (again, just for pitchers). And let's recap the new rules that will go into effect in 2020:

-Active roster of 26, not 25.
-September roster expansion to 28, not 40.
-Barring injury or the end of an inning, pitchers are required to throw to three batters. Yahoo's Tim Brown: This rule is stupid. I agree.
-Position players can only pitch in extra innings or when a team leads/trails by at least seven runs.

*Growing Up in Levittown: How a quintessential Long Island suburb was built on rules that still shape it today.

*Three Indiana judges were suspended after drinking, trying to go to a strip club at 3am, and ended up in a shooting in a White Castle parking lot. White Castle sounds pretty good right now, not gonna lie.

*The crazy story of how Mary Steenburgen woke up after minor arm surgery and wrote one of the best original songs for a movie.

*The secret life of the audiobook star.

*A Musical Selection:

How do the Rosters look after today?

Okay, so the Astros acquired the following players today (alphabetically);

Joe Biagini
Zack Greinke
Martin Maldonado
Rainier Rivas
Aaron Sanchez
Cal Stevenson
Raider Uceta

They also traded the following players away (alphabetically)

Seth Beer
J.B. Bukauskas
Derek Fisher (40-Man)
Corbin Martin (40-Man)
Josh Rojas
Max Stassi (Active & 40-Man)

How does the Active Roster / 40-Man Roster fit with all of this going on?

First off, you do not need to put Rivas, Stevenson, or Uceta on the 40-Man Roster. So the Astros cleared one spot on the Active Roster (Stassi) and three spots on the 40-Man Roster (Stassi, Fisher, Martin).

According to the current Active Roster on the Astros' website, there are only 24 listed and that's with Marisnick sitting out tonight's game, putting the Astros' active roster at 23. (UPDATE: Bryan Abreu is the 25th guy). Then you subtract Stassi, and you have two spots. I think those three spots go to Greinke (just a hunch), Biagini, and Maldonado. This is assuming that Sanchez gets sent to Triple-A, but if not then he takes one of Abreu/Urquidy's spots on the Active Roster.

The 40-Man Roster is a little more complicated. McCullers is already on the 60-Day IL, so he doesn't count for a spot. There were 39 on the 40-Man but Fisher and Martin get removed thanks to the trade. Maldonado, again, replaces Stassi. So that's 37 on the 40-Man, leaving three spots. Greinke, Biagini, and Sanchez get those three spots to bring it to 40. Voila.

When Peacock, James, and Pressly come back, it's pretty much a slam dunk that Cy Sneed and Jose Urquidy go back to Round Rock. Then, since you're really adding three pitchers, you have to wonder about the safety of Hector Rondon.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*Lots of links yesterday about tanking because of Buster Olney's and Jayson Stark's hand-wringing. They all pretty much agree that it doesn't make any sense to spend $100m on a 65-win team when you can spend $50m on a 60-win team. Included in those links: our own Not Hank Aaron, CRPerry from the Crawfish Boxes, Dayn Perry, and the ever-valuable Grant Brisbee.

*Here's FanGraphs on how MLB's 40-Man Rosters were created, with a good look at the Astros.

*Moar FanGraphs: The Case for Doug Fister

*The Astros used 13 starting pitchers in 2015, and have one of the best "back-up plans" in baseball.

*The Astros have lost the 6th-most fans in pro sports in the last decade. Plenty of caveats, though...

*The Astros had six Urban Youth Academy grads sign letters of intent yesterday.

*MLB.com posted its Top 100 Prospect List yesterday. On it:
#22: Alex Bregman
#40: A.J. Reed
#41: Francis Martes
#74: Kyle Tucker
#75: Daz Cameron

Astros once again have the youngest active roster in baseball

Click this link for a table with the average age of active rosters in MLB. Unsurprisingly, the Astros have the youngest active roster in baseball, at 27 years and 145 days - a few months younger than the 2nd-youngest Braves, and over four years younger than the Yankees.

Where Did These Guys Come From: Corpus

We continue our series by looking at how the 2012 Corpus Christi Hooks were acquired...

Pitchers

Erick Abreu - Signed as free agent, prior to 2008 season
Jonnathan Aristil - Acquired via trade with Rockies, December 2010
Jake Buchanan - Drafted, 8th Round - 2010
Kevin Chapman - Acquired via trade with Royals, 3/20/12
Jose Cisnero - Signed as free agent prior to 2008 season
Jarred Cosart - Acquired via trade with Phillies, 7/29/11
Chris Hicks - Drafted, 14th Round - 2008
Arcenio Leon - Signed as free agent prior to 2005 season
Brett Oberholtzer - Acquired via trade with Braves, 7/30/11
Ross Seaton - Drafted, 3rd Round - 2008
Jason Stoffel - Acquired via trade with Giants, 7/19/11
Henry Villar - Signed as free agent prior to 2006 season
Josh Zeid - Acquired by trade with Phillies, 7/29/11

Catchers

Jair Fernandez - Signed as free agent, 2/6/12
Chris Wallace - Drafted, 16th Round - 2010

Infielders

Kody Hinze - Signed as free agent, 2008
Jordan Kreke - Signed as free agent, January 2012
Jose Martinez - Signed as free agent
Andy Simunic - Drafted, 17th Round - 2008
Jonathan Singleton - Acquired via trade with Phillies, 7/29/11
Jose Carlos Thompson - Signed as free agent, January 2011
Jonathan Villar - Acquired via trade with Phillies, 7/30/10

Outfielders

Adam Bailey - Drafted, 23rd Round - 2010
Brandon Barnes - Drafted, 6th Round - 2005
T.J. Steele - Drafted, 4th Round - 2008
Austin Wates - Drafted, 3rd Round - 2010