Livan Hernandez - Hall of Famer

There has been some outcry among fans, and jokes among national writers, about the Astros signing of Livan Hernandez to a minor league deal. But I say they're missing the historical significance of this unquestionably dominant pitcher.

Ok, by now you're already typing your "Juvenile Court Clerk is an idiot" comments, and that's ok. I realize this in depth analysis will be lost on many readers. I'm willing to take the heat to get this historically important conversation started.

You see, most BBWAA members often start looking at two things when determining whether or not to vote a player into the HOF: a dominant peak and longevity. For example, CBS Sports writer Jon Heyman explained this very process when he was talking about Jack Morris' HOF candidacy. Here's what he says:

Morris' detractors generally point to one unextraordinary number, and while it's an important number, it should not define his career. His lifetime ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame, and his ERA plus of 105 is barely above average. But Morris pitched deep into his games and deep into his middle age, trampling his lifetime ERA. Morris is known by teammates to have pitched to the score, which enabled him to win more games than anyone else in the '80s and 254 games overall. (The leading winners in the seven preceding decades are all in the Hall.) In seven seasons, he received Cy Young votes. So he had plenty of great years.
Morris was a bulldog who refused to leave games. He completed 175 of them, and that doesn't even count Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, in which he turned in one of the greatest pitching performances in baseball history to help his hometown Twins beat the Braves 1-0 and win the Series. Morris was considered a great pitcher during his career, not someone who was defined by less meaningful games that dragged his ERA up beyond a representative number.

Well, we all have heard by now that wins are falling out of favor as a measurement of pitching success, so I got to thinking what else would indicate an ability to "pitch deep into games and deep into middle age"? How else could we determine who "was a bulldog who refused to leave games"? I propose that such profound questions can be answered by looking at innings pitched. After all, you can't rack up high innings totals without pitching deep into games for multiple years, right?  But how do we determine where to set the bar? Again, let's use the same process esteemed BBWAA member Jon Heyman uses above. Let's look at who the innings pitched leaders are by decade and how they fared in HOF voting.


1880's - Pud Galvin - HOF member
1890's - Kid Nichols - HOF member
1900's - Cy Young - HOF member
1910's - Walter Johnson - HOF member
1920's - Burleigh Grimes - HOF member
1930's - Carl Hubbell - HOF member
1940's - Hal Newhouser - HOF member
1950's - Robin Roberts - HOF member
1960's - Don Drysdale - HOF member
1970's - Gaylord Perry - HOF member
1980's - Jack Morris - Not HOF member, but gaining support
1990's - Greg Maddux - Not HOF member, but possible first ballot selection


Wow, that's 12 straight decades of innings leaders who are either already in or likely to be in the HOF. That's an even stronger indicator than Jon Heyman's win leader by decade, right? So who was the leader in the 2000's? None other than Houston's newest starting pitcher, Livan Hernandez.


Who's joking now?

The Best Age 32 seasons in baseball history

Today, I - your Constable - turn 32 years old. This sucks. I'm afraid that I'm getting too old to blog, in addition to my penchant for yelling at the television, thinking about wearing earplugs to concerts, and the necessity of the nose-hair trimmer (which sounds like a weed eater when I use it twice a week).

So let's run down the best Age 32 seasons in baseball history:

1. Easy. Babe Ruth, 1927. Ruth hit 60 homers with a .356/.486/.772 slash line. 17 of his 60 homers came in September. He led the AL in homers (obviously), runs (158), walks (137), OBP (.486), SLG (.772), OPS (1.258), and OPS+ (225). Generally considered to be the best player on the greatest baseball team in history (the Yankees went 110-44, and swept the Pirates in the World Series).

2. Bob Gibson, 1968. One of the all-time great pitching seasons, all around. But Bob Gibson went 22-9 for the Cardinals, with a 1.12 ERA/0.85 WHIP, and 268 strikeouts (all NL-bests). He threw 13 shutouts, and had a 258 ERA+ - better than any other 32-year old pitcher. Gibson only allowed 5.8 hits/9, and gave up just 11 homers all season, good enough for 0.3 HR/9 innings - the best of his career, and topped 300 IP (304.2) for the first time. They lost the World Series in seven games, which Gibson lost Game 7, but he did go 2-1 (all three starts were complete games) in the '68 World Series with a 1.67 ERA/0.82 WHIP.

3. There are undoubtedly better seasons, but I'm bored of the research for this post already, so let's finish up with Craig Biggio, 1998. Led the NL in PA (738) and doubles (51 - 3rd-highest total among 32 year olds). 1998 was also the year he set a career high in average (.325), SLG (.503), with his 2nd-best OPS at .906, and a career-high 50 stolen bases (only caught stealing eight times). Also, he was only hit by pitches 23 times in 1998, down from a career-high of 34 the year prior.

Random random Astro - Billy Goodman

In this installment of Random random Astro, we're going all the way back to the first year of the franchise's history as we look at former Colt .45 Billy Goodman.

Billy was signed a month into Houston's inaugural season, 1962, after being released by the Chicago White Sox. He would be released by Houston after the season, ending his major league career. He hit .255/.306/.292 with Houston while playing first base, second base, and third base. Earlier in his career he was a perennial .300 hitter including winning a batting title with the Red Sox in 1950 when he hit .354 and finished second to Phil Rizzuto in MVP voting.

The highlight of his short time with Houston would be June 7th in a game against the Milwaukee Braves. Billy appeared as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the ninth with the score tied at two, two outs, and runners on first and second. Against reliever Hank Fischer, who had been brought in to face Goodman, Billy hit a game winning walk-off single scoring Al Spangler and bringing the young team's record to 23-30.

Following the 1962 season, Billy stayed with the organization as a player/manager for the 1962 and 1963 Durham Bulls and manager of the Cocoa Astros in 1964.

Luhnow "comfortable" with the team as it stands

Zachary Levine has an article up in which, following the signing of Livan Hernandez, the Astros just might be done wheeling and dealing (for now).

Luhnow:
“We’re going to continue to be opportunistic, but I feel pretty comfortable with the group we have now."

Look later today for a look at the log-ride that is the pitching staff...

Astros sign Livan Hernandez

Ken Rosenthal is reporting via a source that the Astros have signed Livan Hernandez to a minor-league contract, with an invitation to Spring Training.

Hernandez is now 36 (he'll be 37 on February 20). He's spent the last two seasons and change with the Nationals, where in 2010/11, he threw 387IP, 415H/173ER, 213K:110BB, for a 4.02 ERA/1.36 WHIP. FanGraphs lists his xFIP at 4.57 in 2010, and 4.28 in 2011, with 4.8 WAR in those two seasons.

Back in September, FanGraphs' Eric Seidman had this to say about Livan:
He was always hittable and lacked top-notch stuff, but understood his limitations and smartly broke down the opposition. While it’s laughable to picture Hernandez teaching Stephen Strasburg how to throw 84-mph slop, it’s tough to imagine many pitchers better suited to teach these young arms. After all, you don’t tally 36 WAR on the mound, over 15 seasons and with subpar stuff, without having plenty of pitching know-how. For $1 million this season, the Nationals got 175+ league average innings and a second pitching coach. Not a bad investment at all.

Mark Berman has your quote via Luhnow:
"Livan has been doing it. Ever since he came over from Cuba many years ago, he's been an effective pitcher."

Top Prospect Alert's list

Top Prospect Alert has their Top 150 prospect list posted, and there are some Astros on there. Where, you ask?

Jon Singleton: #34
Jarred Cosart: #59
George Springer: #63
Jonathan Villar: #75

So yeah, about that name change

In the words of a well known Astros fan, "Not gonna do it; wouldn't be prudent."

Crane says the fans have spoken and the Astros shall remain the Astros. Footer let us know about it here.

Contract Details

Brian McTaggart has the contract details for Jack Cust and Chris Snyder. Give it a look.

An exercise in dumpster diving

As we've seen so far this off-season, the only free agency moves the Astros are interested in making right now are on cheap players who have a chance to improve their stock. Jack Cust, Chris Snyder, and Zach Duke were all once considered good, but not great, players and all have seen their value drop in recent seasons due to injury or inexplicable ineffectiveness. Well, the off-season isn't quite over yet, and there are still a few similar players out there waiting for phone calls. Might Jeff Luhnow have a couple more dumpsters to pick through? Looking through our roster and the free agents still out there, I don't know that there's much else on the position player side that is worth looking at. There are a few interesting arms out there, though. Let's see who's still available.

Rich Harden

Rich was once a can't miss future ace, but injuries have prevented him from reaching that potential. While he'll likely never be a 200 inning #1 starter, he may still be useful. His most recent health woes led to a dramatic decrease in velocity, as the once fearsome 95 mph heater became a much more hittable 90 mph. However, his velocity is back on the rise as he once again struck out over a batter an inning in 2011, and his K/BB ratio nearly matched his career best. His xFIP in 2011 was as good as it's been since 2008 when he was a 4.5 win pitcher in just 148 innings. Last season he made just $1.5M and the perception of his performance last year is below what his peripheral stats would indicate. And he's just 30 years old.

Chris Young

Chris is one that I think is not likely to regain his form. A former all-star with San Diego, his injuries have more significantly impacted his career. He's thrown just 222 innings since 2008, and his walk rate, which was never outstanding, jumped to 4.5 per 9 innings. Typically an increase walk rate following injury indicates some instability in the shoulder, which proves out here as Chris went down last May with a torn capsule in his throwing shoulder, requiring surgery. Chris will turn 33 this season.

Brandon Webb

Most baseball fans know Brandon's recent plight. An absolute stud of a pitcher in 2008, shoulder injuries have allowed him to throw only 16 innings at any level since. Brandon will also turn 33 this season and there is so little information to be gleaned from his agent's reports that Webb's arm is "strong and loose." Brandon might be the closest there is right now to a baseball lottery ticket.

Hong-Chih Kuo

Kuo's affliction has nothing to do with injury. After three straight seasons as a dominant bullpen piece for the Dodgers, Kuo went down with what is described as an anxiety disorder. Even after returning it was evident things just weren't right with Kuo. In recent memory there are two examples of pitchers dealing with similar issues. First there's Zach Greinke; needless to say he's been able to keep his anxiety at bay to become one of the best pitchers in the game. On the other hand is Dontrelle Willis. Willis is young enough to pull it back together, but so far his road back to effectiveness has been long and difficult with moments of hope followed by periods of poor performance. Kuo is just 30 and has yet to sign after being non-tendered this off-season.

Tranzactionz!

Baseball America has the latest round-up of minor-league tranzactionz, in which we find:

The Astros signed Jordan Kreke (You already knew this) and outfielder Jordan Brown.

Brown, a 28-year old former 2005 4th Round pick of the Indians, got 26 games with Cleveland in 2010, hitting .230/.310/.582 in 92 PAs. But he has raked in the minors, hitting .307/.365/.470 in seven minor-league seasons. In 2011, between Columbus (Cleveland) and Nashville (Milwaukee), he hit .311/.346/.466, with 47K:23BB in 460PAs.

We also learn that the Astros have released the following players:
LHP Travis Blankenship, LHP Colton Pitkin, LHP Shane Wolf, C Federico Hernandez, SS Hector Rodriguez, and OF Kellen Kiilsgaard.

As What the Heck, Bobby noted, with Pitkin's release, the Astros only have two players left in the organization from the 2007 draft - Kyle Greenwalt and Collin DeLome.

This opens up a few spots in Lancaster, as Pitkin, Wolf, and Hernandez all finished the season with the JetHawks. Hector Rodriguez ended 2011 in Lexington, while Blankenship (Tri-City) and Kiilsgaard (Greeneville) ended 2011 with the short-season teams.

Random Random Astro - Mark Portugal

In this installment of Random Random Astro, we'll take a look at Mark Portugal. Mark was a starting pitcher for Houston from 1989 to 1993.

Mark was traded to Houston from Minnesota, where he had been a very mediocre reliever, for a player to be named later in December of 1988. That PTBNL ended up being minor league reliever Todd McLure, who spent one season in the Minnesota farm system before his professional career was over, so Houston basically got Mark for nothing.

Houston decided to turn him into a starter and his career blossomed with the Astros. During his tenure with the team, Mark went 52-30 with a 3.34 ERA. He also hit is only two career home runs while playing for the Astros, one his first season in Houston and the other his last. The best year of Mark's career came in his final season with Houston, 1993, as he went 18-4 with a 2.77 ERA, led NL pitchers in win percentage (.818) and finished 6th in Cy Young voting.

While Mark obviously had several good outings for the Astros, two in particular stood out. July 11th, 1991 Mark threw 10 shutout innings while giving up six hits and one walk with seven strikeouts in an eleven inning 1-0 win over the Phillies. He even went 1-3 at the plate with a double that game.

Another of Mark's best performances came September 21st, 1993 against the Giants. Mark went the distance for a shutout in the 6-0 victory. He allowed just three hits and one walk with six strikeouts. Again, Mark had a good day hitting as well, going 2-3 with a run scored and an RBI.

Mark became a free agent after that 1993 season, eventually signing with those same San Francisco Giants. As compensation for losing Mark, the Astros received the Giants 1st round draft pick in 1994, as well as a compensation pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. With the first compensation pick the Astros drafted pitcher Scott Elarton. With the sandwich pick Houston selected infielder Russ Johnson.

Jarred Cosart doesn't give himself a legitimate shot

In David Dalati's piece on hometown boy Jarred Cosart, we find that Cosart didn't really want to sign with the Phillies in 2008:

"When the Phillies called, I was like, 'Thanks, but no thanks.'" But sly old Ruben Amaro got him to sign as a 38th Round pick, instead of going to Missouri.

And he doesn't think he'll make the roster out of Spring Training:
"I want to make the team. But I wouldn't give myself a legitimate shot. I'm still young, I have things to work on but I'm going in there with the mindset that I'm going to make the team."

(He's probably right).

Kellen Kiilsgaard out

Astros minor-leaguer Kellen Kiilsgaard let everyone know that he was no longer with the Astros today on Twitter.

We didn't see a whole lot of Kiilsgaard, the Astros 30th Round pick in 2010. He didn't play at all in 2010 due to injury, and in 36 games between Greeneville and Tri-City (he was sent to Greeneville to make room for Chase Davidson), Kiilsgaard hit .161/.213/.246.

Astros sign Zach Duke

So the Astros have signed free agent LHP Zach Duke to a minor-league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.

Should we get worked up? Duke is a native Texan (Clifton), spent the first six years of his career with Pittsburgh, and last season with Arizona. Here are his career stats:

181GP (he started nine of his 21 games for the Diamondbacks in 2011), 1269H/528ER, 537K:282BB, 4.56 ERA/1.49 WHIP. How does that break down per game? 11 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.6 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9.

So he doesn't walk anybody, but he doesn't strike anybody out, either. In the two seasons since his 2009 All-Star appearance (as the lone Pittsburgh All-Star), he has a 5.46 ERA/1.63 WHIP, with a 73 ERA+. (J.A. Happ had a 71 ERA+ in 2011, as did Jordan Lyles.) In his six appearances (five starts) at Minute Maid, Duke has a 1-2 record, with a 3.41 ERA/1.33 WHIP - small sample size, so do what you want with it.

To be fair, his BABIP in 2010 and 2011 were .338 and .339, respectively, and his xFIP was 4.31 and 4.27, also respectively. Seems as though those ground balls found holes.

To answer the original question of us getting all worked up: Not really. It's a minor-league deal, so remember that.

Yep, another prospect list

Seedlings to Stars just put out their list for the Astros farm system. They took a different perspective, as they identified the top player at each position. As for the system as a whole, here's the gist:

Position Player Upside: C+
Position Player Depth: C
Pitching Upside: C+
Pitching Depth: B
System Grade: C+

I'm planning a prospect preview of my own, so I won't add any commentary to this.

*Edit: Now with more linky goodness.

FanGraphs on Delino DeShields Jr

FanGraphs' Mike Newman (also at Scouting the SAL) has a scouting report up on Delino DeShields, Jr.

Your money quote:
Should DeShields Jr. develop perfectly, the potential is there for him to become poor man’s Brandon Phillips, but it’s a very loose comp and one I’m not completely comfortable with. The combination of his physique, position and tools make him a unique prospect with skills that leave him a true boom or bust candidate.

Read about Jake Goebbert and David Martinez

Baseball America has a little feature up where they highlight the "32nd Team:"

We provide a Top 30 Prospects list for each of the 30 organizations, and we used to call the leftover reports "The 31st Team." In 2009, we created a bonus supplement for readers who buy the Handbook directly from us, giving them one prospect for each farm system. That essentially became the 31st team, so now we consider the extras as "The 32nd Team."

Click the link to read more about Jake Goebbert:
He wouldn't be a factor if he didn't hit lefthanded, but the platoon advantage gives him a chance to become a second-division regular on an outfield corner if he keeps hitting.

David Martinez:
His ability to sink the ball should allow him to survive in one of the minors' toughest pitching environments. He still projects as a reliever in the long term.

Astros interested in Luis Ayala

Alden Gonzalez reports that the Astros are one of a "handful" of teams interested in 34-year old reliever Luis Ayala.

In 2011, Ayala threw 56IP for the Yankees, allowing 51H/13ER, 39K:20BB, with a 2.09 ERA/1.27 WHIP.

Interestingly enough (or not), Ayala was traded in 2008 to the Mets by the Nationals for a player to be named later. That PTBNL? Anderson Hernandez.

Astros have three on Top Prospect list

Hooray! The Astros have three players on the MLB Top 100 prospects list: Jonathan Singleton at #44, Jarred Cosart at #61, and George Springer at #84.

Daryle Ward suspended 50 games

Not that it really matters to us anymore, but Daryle Ward got himself suspended for 50 games after testing positive for "an amphetamine."

Ward is a minor-league free agent, so his suspension will start when he signs with a team. Or, more likely, his suspension will mean that he is suspended from baseball FOREVER.

Astros sign minor-league infielder Jordan Kreke

The Astros have signed infielder Jordan Kreke to a minor-league contract.

Kreke, who will be 25 in May, was a 13th-Round draft pick of the Braves in 2009 out of Eastern Illinois University (the same round that the Astros drafted Jake Goebbert). In part of three seasons (1139 PAs), Kreke has hit .239/.311/.311, and hit .218/.262/.288 for Double-A Mississippi in 2011. He has played 3B (125 games), 2B (123 games), SS (47 games), LF (2 games), and even threw 1.1IP in two games in 2011.

Signing with the Astros, according to Kreke, was a strategic move because, you know, the Braves' system is all good and stuff, and the Astros...
"Signing with the Astros takes some pressure off of me to perform. The Atlanta Braves have one of the top-5 farm systems in the league whereas the Astros are building theirs up. Hopefully, I can take off from the Astros' system, and who knows, make the big leagues."

Can someone please stop harrassing Jim Crane?

Here's an updated Business Week story on the Jim Crane/JP Morgan Chase/Jefferson County story, in which Crane's lawyers would like (someone) to kindly leave him out of it:

Since Crane doesn’t have any personal knowledge about JPMorgan’s role, “it is harassing and unduly burdensome to require Crane to appear and testify,” his attorneys said in court papers.

Snyder's deal: Low-risk, high-reward

Jerry Crasnick posted the details of Chris Snyder's deal last night, and it's quite favorable:

2012: $750,000 (only $350,000 guaranteed), bonuses for plate appearances and days on the roster.

2013: $4m - or a $500,000 buyout.

Reaction to the Mike Fast hiring

It's not terribly often that a front office hire (other than the GM) generates comment from around the baseball blogosphere, but that's exactly what Jeff Luhnow's hiring of Mike Fast has done.

Take, for instance, this Lookout Landing post:

The Astros aren't going to join the AL West as some kind of clown car. They're on their way towards legitimacy. And it's not just them. All teams are getting smarter. Some teams are getting smarter slower than other teams, and some teams are still run by Ned Colletti, but baseball's getting sharp. The intelligence gap between organizations is shrinking, increasing the significance of money and luck.

Want to know why we don't really try to "break news"?

Read this story from the Kings of Kauffman baiting an "Insider."

Angel Sanchez DFA'ed

To clear room for Chris Snyder, the Astros have DFA'ed Angel Sanchez.

I feel bad for Angel Sanchez, but he was a singles hitter who didn't hit singles all that often. He was decent enough in 2010, hitting .280/.316/.348 (which isn't all that decent), but hit just .240/.305/.285 in 2011, and went 106 PAs, from July 7 to September 23, without an extra-base hit. He had six extra-base hits in April, and then five for the rest of the year. As a starter in 2011, he hit .234/.297/.287. It just had to happen.

Fixed. We suggest you do the same.

Luhnow hires Mike Fast

So it came out in Jeff Luhnow's Sloan Sports chat that the Astros have hired Mike Fast - otherwise known on Twitter as Fastballs. He's an Austin-based writer for Baseball Prospectus whose archive can be found here.

According to Fast's "acceptance tweet," he'll have a role in baseball operations.

In Zachary Levine's article for the Chronicle, he writes:
Fast, one of the foremost experts on pitch trajectory (PITCHf/x) data, has also written on HITf/x data for BP. Some of his latest writings have been on hit-and-run success, quantifying how much control pitchers have over batted balls and an analysis of hot and cold zones for hitters.

Rany Jazayerli had this to say:
I have a problem with Astros hiring @fastballs. My problem: WHAT TOOK SO LONG? He's one of the best baseball analysts anywhere. About time.

High praise, indeed.

The Astros were interested in Desmond before Lowrie

Ken Rosenthal says that the Astros were interest in trading for Nationals' SS Ian Desmond before they went with Lowrie.

Where Crane screwed up

Things were going so well. Lower ticket prices. Cheaper beer. Cheaper food. Hell, bring your own food! Maybe change the color scheme.

And then Crane screwed up. He mentioned exploring a name change. It doesn't matter that it was just a matter of exploration, or that he would seek fan input. All anyone is going to remember from this remarkable press conference is that it is theoretically possible that "Astros County" will have to go through a domain and Twitter name change, as well.

Crane shouldn't have even mentioned it. Fans were excited about going to Minute Maid again - and they probably still are - but they're all of a sudden too pissed off that, not only are the Astros going to be in the American League, the Astros might not even be the Astros when it happens.

In all likelihood, Crane already knows that it's unpopular. Someone maybe even printed out tweets on a dot matrix printer and showed it to him. But if he's seeking fan input, then you've already had your say. What was mentioned as a best-case scenario for Astros fans with new ownership in 2012? Everything that Crane said he'd do at the beginning of the press conference.

I would be very surprised if it even gets talked about further - other than a "We're keeping the name" press conference. For now, just settle down, everything is going to be alright. Probably.

Jim Crane is doing exactly the right thing to get fans back

There's a press conference currently taking place, where Jim Crane is announcing some fan-friendly initiatives for the 2012 season. These are culled from the press conference, and from Steve Campbell, Zachary Levine, and Alyson Footer's tweets. Among the new initiatives (Here's a link to Footer's post:

*Season ticket prices are being lowered.
*Cheapest seats are being reduced from $7 to $5.
*You can now bring food and drinks into MMP
*A 14-oz. beer is now $5.

Notably, Levine tweets that uniform changes are being considered for 2013, but nothing for the 50th anniversary season coming up.

Does it improve the on-field product? No. But Crane is doing what he needs to do in the short-term to get fans in the seats, which will ultimately help the on-field product.

Here's something crazy: Crane says the Apparatus will even evaluate changing the "Astros" name. How do you feel about that? Keep in mind, Crane originally said the name would stay the same, but it at least shows that they are re-evaluating EVERYTHING about the franchise.

J.D. Martinez hit with Manny today

J.D. Martinez tweeted that he took some BP with the Big Infertility, aka Manny Ramirez today:

How dare the Diamondbacks take a catcher we didn't need!?

Keith Law tweeted that the Diamondbacks have claimed catcher Craig Tatum, whom the Astros DFA'ed to make room for Jack Cust.

Tatum posted a .000/.000/.000 line for the Astros in 0 PAs.

Rank ALL the Prospects

I know, it seems like everyone and their brother has come out with prospect rankings recently. That said, Minor League Ball recently released their 2012 farm system rankings. Houston checks in at #25, but there is recognition of our improvement. Go check it out.

Tigers moving on from Carlos Lee?

It's hard to tell if the Tigers were ever actually interested in Carlos Lee, but via MLBTR, we find that Danny Knobler is reporting the Tigers have interest in Hideki Matsui and Raul Ibanez.

Nowhere in the post is El Caballo actually mentioned...

Random Random Astro - Mike Brumley

This is the first of a new series here at Astros County. The premise is simple; at random times throughout the coming year, we'll look at a random player from the Astros' 50 year history. Today's random random Astro is Mike Brumley.

Brumley actually had two extremely brief tours in Houston in the mid 90's, primarily as a pinch hitter and utility defensive replacement. He first came to the Astros as a minor league free agent in 1993. After an impressive season in AAA Tucson where he hit .353/.419/.471 with 0 homeruns and 24 steals as a SS/OF, he was called up to Houston in September. In 11 plate appearances spread across 8 games he hit .300/.364/.300. Brumley did get one start in right field that season, in game #162. His highlight of the season was October 2nd when, as an 8th inning pinch hitter, he hit a 2 RBI single to give Houston a 3-1 victory over the Mets. Houston placed Brumley on waivers October 4th.

Brumley's second stint with Houston was 1995 when he was once again signed to a minor league deal. Through two call ups that season, Brumley managed a .056/.056/.222 line over 18 games with 18 plate appearances, including one start in left field. Brumley again had one good pinch hitting appearance. September 28th against the Cubs he game to the plate in the top of the 11th inning and swatted a solo HR, temporarily giving the Astros the lead before the team lost 12-11 in the bottom of the same inning.

After spending the entire 1996 season in Tucson, Brumley's career ended. In his two seasons as an Astro, Brumley totaled a .143/.172/.250 line while appearing as a pinch hitter, pinch runner, 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF.

Jim Crane lost $24.5m in Alabama

Here's a little snippet on Jim Crane from the Wall Street Journal, in which there's a bit of a brouhaha in Alabama.

Crane has been ordered by a bankruptcy judge to reveal details of his settlement with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. over $35 million worth of sewer bonds that he bought from the investment bank four years ago—a personal investment that quickly turned to, er, garbage...

...Crane sued J.P. Morgan two years ago, accusing it of failing to disclose the type of things that investors like him would typically want to know such as, say, an alleged bribery scheme that put several county officials in prison and led the bank to pay a $722 million settlement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission without admitting wrongdoing.

Display your Proof of Citizenship!

Our buddy Tim De Block from the Crawfish Boxes just tweeted this:

Remaining unsigned Minor-League Free Agents

Baseball America has a pretty sweet database (the link gets you to the point of this post) of the Minor League Free Agent tracker.

Here are the remaining unsigned minor league free agents who spent 2011 with the Astros organization:

LHP Kristian Bueno, C Robinson Cancel, 1B Koby Clemens, RHP Sam Gervacio, RHP Brad James, OF Drew Locke, 3B Jhonny Medrano, 3B Oswaldo Navarro, LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith, 2B Jose Vallejo

You can never have enough prospect rankings

Head on over to Bullpen Banter, where they've posted their 2012 Farm System Rankings. Jeff Reese and Al Skorupa have each ranked the organizations, and both have the Astros right around the 33rd percentile.

You can find a good review of the Houston system here, when they broke down the top 15 for the Astros.

Could Carlos Lee replace Victor Martinez

So by now you all know about Victor Martinez' likely season-ending ACL injury. This puts the Tigers in quite a pickle. They need a DH/1B to win the division, something the Tigers could very easily do. But now that's sort of up in the air. What about Prince Fielder? GM Dave Dombrowski said that he'd consider Fielder but he was "probably not a good fit," and that he expected Martinez to be ready to return to form for 2013.

So that leaves the Tigers with a short-term need at DH/1B. Jon Paul Morosi mentioned this morning that talks with the Tigers and Astros have not been "in depth" about Carlos Lee. Our question is, "Could Carlos Lee even replace Victor Martinez?"

Martinez hit .330/.380/.470 in 595 PAs in 2011 for the Tigers, with 12 homers and 103 RBI (if RBIs matter to you). That's a 29.2% XBH rate for Martinez. But he also had a .343 BABIP.

Carlos Lee, in 653 PAs for the Astros in 2011, hit .275/.342/.446, with 18 homers, 94 RBI, and a 37.3% XBH rate, but with a .279 BABIP.

Also:
Martinez, vs. LHP: .311/.363/.459
Carlos Lee, vs. LHP: .348/.413/.615

I can sit here and cherry pick stats to make it look like Carlos Lee is Babe Ruth, but if the Tigers want to come close to replacing Martinez' bat, and want to do it for 2012 only, then Carlos Lee - a middle-of-the-order hitter whose contract expires after the 2012 season - makes temporary blogger sense, especially if the Astros are willing to eat half of Lee's contract.

You can never have enough catchers

The Astros have apparently signed catcher Chris Snyder to a 1-year deal with a club option for 2013.

Snyder, a 30-year old out of Spring Woods HS and UofH, is coming off a three-year/$13.5m deal, playing with the Diamondbacks and Pirates.

In 2011, he only played in 34 games, hitting .271/.376/.396, having missed most of 2011 following surgery for a herniated disc.

Overall, he's a fine defensive catcher - posting a .998 Fld% as a catcher - the highest in baseball history for catchers.

In seven seasons with Arizona (2004-10), Snyder posted a .233/.335/.402 line, with his high-water mark coming in 2007, when he hit .237/.348/.452, with 39 extra-base hits, but has posted OPS' of .685, .696, and .772.

Perhaps you remember Chris Snyder from this piece of horrific news, where he and his wife were attacked during a traffic dispute, but Snyder couldn't move following back surgery.

Bottom-line, either Quintero is SOL, or Castro's injury is setting him further back than previously expected.

Tigers and Astros have not discussed Carlos Lee "in depth"

Jon Morosi made a point of mentioning that the Tigers and Astros have not discussed the possibility of a trade involving Carlos Lee "in depth".

But that "in depth" part is so tantalizing, isn't it? Because it means that it may have at least come up.

Thoughts?

2012 Bounty Offers from Astros County

I know for a fact that Astros County has in its number a few minor-leaguers (and potentially major-leaguers, but I can't verify it) playing in the Astros organization. That's why we want to spice up the 2012 season by offering this bounty:

1. Any Astros player - minor-league or major-league - who, upon hitting a home run, throws their bat at the press box and yells, "ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!" will receive $50 from Astros County.

2. Video proof is necessary.

3. Furthermore, if the crowd chants "SPANIARD! SPANIARD! SPANIARD!" after the home run, we will give the player another $100 and a box of Wheat Thins.

There's even an offer for pitchers:

1. If any pitcher strikes out a batter to end a road game, and he yells from the mound, "Smells like somebody died" (via Tombstone), he will receive $50.

2. Video proof is necessary.

Also:

1. If any Astros organization player (Major League or Minor-League) were to take a picture holding an Astros County Proof of Citizenship (on the right-hand side of your screen) - you will receive a prize.

2. If any Astros organization player records a humorous video mentioning Astros County, you will receive a better prize.

All submissions can be sent to astroscounty (at) gmail.com

Furthermore if you are just a loyal reader of Astros County, take a photo holding the Proof of Citizenship and send it in, and we'll post it on AC.

Pam Gardner out

Brian McTaggart just tweeted that Pam Gardner - who had been the Astros' President of Baseball Operations has "voluntarily resigned" from her position, but will remain a Special Advisor to Jim Crane.

I had been curious about her role, seeing as how George Postolos had seemingly taken over those responsibilities. But now I guess we know.

At least someone is excited about the possibility of a Cust/Lee outfield

Over at the Platoon Advantage, they tackle the possibility of history and the 2012 Astros - namely in just how terrible a defensive outfield would be if it included Carlos Lee and Jack Cust.

Wallace, on why he got released by Escogido

Brian McTaggart has a story on Brett Wallace, who talks about being with the Astros longer than he's been with any organization (!). But he also addressed his Winter Ball experience.

If you recall, back in mid-November, Wallace was released by Escogido (Manager: Tony DeFrancesco; General Manager: Moises Alou). He was sort of sucking it up to that point in the season, but Wallace has an alibi:

"It was one of those things -- you start to struggle a little bit and people start pitching you differently," Wallace said. "And when I was down there, I actually hurt my back about two or three weeks in and I just wasn't really swinging the way I wanted to. I started making adjustments to try to play, and I think they realized that, too. It was probably best for me to come home and get ready to go. This season is the most important thing to me."

Highly-touted player hits homer off Astro

Big shot impending free agent Yoennis Cespedes hit a big ol' home run (video within the link) last night.

Who did it come off of? Astros' Rule 5 pick Rhiner Cruz, and his 97-mph fastball.

Craig Tatum DFA'd

In order to make room for Jack Cust on the 40-man roster, the Astros designated Craig Tatum for assignment.

Tatum was claimed off waivers from the Orioles at the end of October.

Jack Cust: Clutch?

So The Examiner's Stephen Goff likes the Jack Cust signing, which is totally fine. For $600,000 of Maybe Money, it could pan-out.

But Goff says this:
The BA isn't great, but he hits for power, produces in the clutch and can get on base

Let's see if he's right - how "Clutchy" is Jack Cust?

For his career, Cust is a .242/.374/.439 hitter, for an .813 OPS, with 819K:444BB (1.84 K:BB ratio). With that in mind, some career splits:

Two outs, runners in scoring position: .198/.371/.391 (.762 OPS)
Late & close: .220/.358/.414 (.772 OPS)
Tie Game: .228/.373/.426 (.799 OPS)
Innings 7-9: .234/.360/.430 (.790 OPS)

That doesn't fully unpack what it means to be Clutch, so let's look at High-Leverage situations (according to Baseball-Reference): .229/.376/.386 (.762 OPS), 18 homers in 534 PAs.

OPS' in High-Leverage situations in the following years:
2011: .709
2010: .544
2009: .699
2008: .747
2007: 1.150

Alright. It's been four seasons since he had an OPS over .750 in high-leverage situations. It's been since 2008 that his SLG was higher than his OBP in high-leverage situations.

Looking strictly at his home run log, Cust has hit 105 homers. 33 of those have been in Innings 7-End. 18 of those homers have been in high-leverage situations. 35 have been go-ahead homers, 11 have been game-tying homers, and one has been a walk-off. So you're looking at 46 of his 105 homers either tied the game up, or sent his team ahead. Impressive, right? But you're still only talking about 105 homers in 2581 PAs, one every 24.6 plate appearances.

Whatever. You can define clutch however you want, but I'm not sure Cust is "clutch." Feel free to disagree, and tell me I'm wrong.

Pure Lee Speculation

In Jim Bowden's latest piece at the WorldWideLeader, he lists five players who would make sense for the Tigers to look into as a Victor Martinez replacement at DH. Among them is our own Carlos Lee. Here's the Astros related stuff:

The Houston Astros would have to eat most of his contract, but .... Lee can still hit with power and would be a good fit for the Tigers.

Quick note on Cust

Buried in a links post over at Fangraphs, Carson Cistulli gives us this first hand account of Jack Cust during a minor league game:

I once saw Cust, playing in a Sacramento River Cats game, see 17 pitches over three plate appearances and swing only once.

Also in that post is a link to an analysis of the signing from a fantasy perspective from Rotographs, the fantasy arm of Fangraphs.

If Cust is able to meet the Bill James projections for 2012, he should end up worth roughly .5 WAR, which would place his value around $2-3 million.

Until we know the dollar amount of the contract and what moves the Astros need to make to the 40 man roster to make room for Cust, I'm going to withhold judgement on this deal.

*Edit: So now we know the deal is a non-guaranteed $600k with a club option for 2013. Almost no risk for the Astros. You can find a little info about non-guaranteed deals here.

So. Jack Cust, huh?

Late-ish last night, the Astros made as much of a splash as the Astros can make by signing 33-year old Jack Cust to a 1-year deal with a club option for a 2nd year.

The immediate question was: What the hell? (Note: This was written prior to me seeing Powling's post for SB Nation).

Currently on the 40-man roster, the Astros have Brian Bogusevic, Jason Bourgeois, Carlos Lee, Fernando Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Jordan Schafer, and J.B. Shuck. Seven outfielders. Well, eight, now. What the hell is going on? Is Cust going to play Rover?

The way it looks now, Carlos Lee is probably going to at least begin the year at 1B, so that leaves J.D. Martinez, Jordan Schafer, and Brian Bogusevic as your potential outfielder, though there's room for someone coming up and killing the ball in Spring Training and beginning the year with some starts. Also, if Brett Wallace has figured out how to hit a fastball inside, it could push Carlos Lee back to LF, which would mean OUTFIELDER APOCALYPSE.

The question on my mind is, "Where does Cust fit in?" He had a miserable 2011, playing in 67 games for the Mariners, and hitting .213/.344/.329, the lowest OPS of his career since he got 78 PAs for the Rockies in 2002. He's been a DH-type player since 2007, hitting 25+ HRs from 2007-09 (also leading the AL in strikeouts with 164, 197, 185, respectively).

Like most everyone else, he could be the Bat Off the Bench - Jason Michaels 2.0. You can't look at his history as a pinch-hitter, as he's spent the overwhelming majority of his career in the American League, only getting a circus performer's handful of Pinch-Hit PAs.

For his career against RHPs, Cust has a .247/.383/.466 line, with 86 of his 105 career homers coming off righties.

Does it make senes? Not really. So, should you get upset about the signing? Probably not. Bogusevic, Shuck, and both Martinez' all have options left. As the Juvenile Court Clerk so deftly put it, they could have announced a Pudge signing instead. Click the SBN link above for further analysis...

Update: Cust has signed for $600,000. Compared to you and I, that's a huge amount of money. It's also $300,000 less than Jason Michaels made in 2011, so keep that in mind.

Updated Update: Cust's contract is a non-guaranteed contract. And if that doesn't help you out, the JCC posted this link from McTaggart (when he worked at the Chronicle) on the difference between Guaranteed and Non-Guaranteed Contracts. Hint: one of them is not guaranteed.

Ed Wade:
“Any player released after April 1 would receive full termination pay. So in other words, all non-guaranteed contracts would become guaranteed past the April 1 deadline."

So if Cust makes it through Spring Training, he gets his $600,000.

We have a bullpen coach!

The Astros hired Rockies minor-league pitching coach Craig Bjornson as bullpen coach, replacing Jamie Quirk.

What's $600K between new friends?

You know how arbitration works, right? The player submits a number that they think they are worth. The front office submits a number they think that player is worth. Invariably, the player thinks he's worth more than the front office thinks he's worth. If they can't agree to adjust their expectations, the two sides go before an arbiter and the team tries to convince the arbiter that they player is not as good as he thinks he is. Then they try to win a championship.

So it happened with Jed Lowrie, who thinks he's worth $1.5m, and the Astros, who think he's worth $900K. More to come.

The Astros lost a long-time front office member

Within Mark Berman's piece on Happ's agreement, we get this note:

Meanwhile, the club has no comment on the departure of Charlie Norton, the Astros director of baseball research and analysis.

Norton is the second long-time Astros employee to leave in as many weeks.

I had never heard of Charlie Norton, but he had been with the Astros since 2002, and in his current position since 2009. Interesante.

Marty Noble is f***ing hilarious

MLB.com's Marty Noble has a bizarre mish-mash of ideas up now, where he talks about the things baseball fans can start to get excited about, now that January is over halfway over:

Darvish's five-start shutout streak, the Indians' 13-game lead in the American League Central, the Astros' 11th victory, Pujols' hitting streak reaching 46 games, the Royals' run of 16 victories in 22 games, Stephen Strasburg's 0.93 ERA, Bobby Valentine's third skirmish, the Astros' 12th victory, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the same batting order for the 106th time, the Mets' first no-hitter (by Johan Santana), Jose Bautista's four-home run game, the Brewers' third two-game winning streak, J.J. Putz's 50th save, a Steve Bartman sighting at Wrigley, Josh Johnson's ninth shutout ...

A few paragraphs later, Noble is still going; and by the time he's done, the Astros are all the way up to 17 victories! And I thought bloggers were supposed to be the unprofessional ones.

J.A. Happ gets himself a nice raise

The Astros avoided arbitration with J.A. Happ today, agreeing on a $2.35m deal for 2012, a nice little increase over the $474,000 he made in 2011.

According to FanGraphs, Happ had a 0.3 WAR in 2011, valuing him at $1.3m.

Jed Lowrie is the only other arbitration case the Astros need to take care of.

Phil Rogers saw Drayton in the French Quarter, on his cell phone

Here's a story from the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers, on Drayton McLane's tenure as owner of the Astros.

Among the things Rogers notes:

*You thought Selig put the squeeze on the Astros? That's nothing (apparently) compared to Drayton's wife:
Selling the Astros was widely seen as a concession from McLane to his wife. He's 75, none of his children was interested in taking over and, well, the timing was right.

Apparently, Minute Maid sucks:
Minute Maid Park is a great place to watch a game but not a great place to play one. The hitter-friendly dimensions make it a challenge to develop pitchers there.

Surely there is some data to back that up...

Stuffing the ballot box

In the mood to vote for something Astros related? Minor League Ball has a poll up asking who the best "B" grade pitching prospect is, and Jarred Cosart made the runoff as one of the top three. Head over there and show a prospect some love.

The Cardinals aren't real happy with Luhnow

St. Louis GM John Mozeliak admitted that the Cards have pumped the brakes on Jeff Luhnow's access to the remaining Cardinals' personnel:

Mozeliak:
“You’re always trying to be professional and allow people to have career growth. But there is a point where you can only take so much of a fracture to your own infrastructure. That was something that was starting to become something of a concern. I was happy Jeff got the opportunity. But at the same time it was not going to be at the cost of us going backward."

For everyone who criticizes Luhnow's tenure with the Cardinals, it's saying something that so many of the Cardinals' people have come to Houston with him.

Also, wouldn't it be great if there was a realignment in baseball where the Astros could get back to their natural rivalry with the Cardinals?

About that Hector Corpas arrest thing...

We had a comment in the post on Corpas' signing that said he had been arrested last fall. Yeah, that's true.

Corpas was arrested at 6:31am in Davenport, Iowa and charged with three misdemeanors: assault with injury, false imprisonment, and obstruction of emergency communications.

More prospecting

Seedlings to Stars is taking a look at prospects that just fall out of their top 100, an honorable mention list, if you will. From the Houston organization, they highlight 4 players: Jarred Cosart, George Springer, Domingo Santana, and Michael Feliz. Jonathan Singleton had previously been ranked #65 by Seedlings to Stars.

Astros County has discussed the first three names fairly regularly, but Michael Feliz was a bit of a surprise to see mentioned. Looking through the AC Archives, I see that The Constable let us know when Feliz was signed, but since then he's flown under the radar. While he may not have dominated the GCL, he'll be just 18 this coming season and is certainly an interesting young arm. We'll have to keep an eye on him this season.

Astros sign Hector Corpas

Via Baseball America's transaction page, we see that the Astros have signed RHP Hector Corpas.

As Matt Eddy notes:
Released by the Cardinals in December, Hector Corpas rejoins Jeff Luhnow and other former members of the St. Louis front office in the Astros' remade front office. Corpas signed out of Venezuela in ’07 and advanced to low Class A in the Cardinals system.

Corpas is 6'3", 170lbs, and spent 2011 with St. Louis' single-A team, where he had a rough go of it: 39.2IP, 48H/32ER, 31K:17BB, for a 7.26 ERA/1.64 WHIP.

Call the PO-lice!

Alyson Footer tweeted a picture of the Astros' clubhouse, with all sorts of players getting their swole on.

But we noticed this:

It's never too early to start getting pissed off

MLB.com writers shared their thoughts on the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot - you know, the one that comes with a soapbox and a briefcase full of revisionist moralizing.

Here's how it relates to the Astros:

Mike Bauman: Yes on Biggio, Yes on Bagwell
Barry Bloom*: Yes on Biggio, Yes on Bagwell
Hal Bodley: No on Biggio (I do not feel Piazza, Schilling and Biggio are legitimate first-ballot candidates.). Maybe on Bagwell
Peter Gammons: Yes on Biggio, Yes on Bagwell
Ken Gurnick: No on anybody who played in the Steroid Era
Chris Haft: Tentative Yes on Biggio, Tentative Yes on Bagwell
Paul Hagen: No on Biggio, Yes on Bagwell
Richard Justice: Yes on Biggio, Yes on Bagwell
Dick Kaegel: Too complicated
Terence Moore: Undecided
Carrie Muskat*: This year, I plan on doing more homework regarding the new candidates on the Hall of Fame ballot. I want to talk to others in the game and will then make a decision.
Mark Newman: Yes on Biggio, Yes on Bagwell
Marty Noble: Biggio is an "unstained candidate." Undecided on Bagwell
Tom Singer: Yes on Biggio, Yes on Bagwell
Lyle Spencer: Craig Biggio will be given serious consideration, but I'm not sure he's a first-ballot guy. Undecided on Bagwell
T.R. Sullivan: Biggio should be a first-ballot lock. It would be great if Bagwell joins him.

*Barry Bloom, if you recall, had this to say about Bagwell for 2012:
I just think he’s a very good player, but not of Hall of Fame caliber. His numbers are very similar to Steve Garvey...
So I'm not sure what changed from two weeks ago to yesterday where he now thinks that Bagwell is a Hall of Famer. Maybe it was all the brow-beating.

*And, hooray for Carrie Muskat! She's going to do some more homework, which is good, because she only voted for Barry Larkin in 2012, in part because he "was a team captain." Teams with no captains = no Hall of Famers.

So. Many. Outfielders.

In the wake of the Fernando Martinez waiver claim, here are the other outfielders vying for spots in 2012, with 2011 stats:

Brian Bogusevic: .287/.348/.457 (182 PAs)
Jason Bourgeois: .294/.323/.357 (238 PAs)
Carlos Lee: .275/.342/.446 (653 PAs)
J.D. Martinez: .274/.319/.423 (226 PAs)
Jordan Schafer: .242/.309/.315 (337 PAs)
J.B. Shuck: .272/.359/.321 (92 PAs)

Al Pedrique out, Pettini in

Al Pedrique - bench coach for the past two seasons - has resigned his position after he was told that he was being reassigned to Bullpen Coach, a void left by Jamie Quirk's move to the Cubs.

Pedrique:
“I’m leaving. I resigned after being told I was going to be the bullpen coach.”

Short. Sweet. To the point. Hemingway would love it.

McTaggart says the Astros have hired Joe Pettini, who had spent the last ten years as Tony LaRussa's bench coach in St. Louis.

Luhnow, on Pettini, to Mark Berman:
"The way he runs spring training. The way he organizes all of the fundamentals, he really brings so much experience to the game. He was a minor league field coordinator for many years before that. He just has a really deep understanding of all the elements of the game. His experience is invaluable and the fact that we were able to get someone like him is an opportunity I really felt we couldn't miss."

Here's a Derrick Goold story on Pettini from May 2011:
Pettini, 56, doesn't have the headlines or longevity of pitching coach Dave Duncan, he doesn't have the former-player following of Jose Oquendo, but he has emerged was La Russa's utility coach. Pettini's daily role is as bench coach, but at times he's filled in for Oquendo as third-base coach, he's taken over at first base when Dave McKay is ailing, and no coach is busier than Pettini when it comes to spring training.

Here's a Pettini interview with the Birdhouse, a Cardinals blog. Spoiler: Pettini uses geometry for infield defensive positioning.
-
Also, the Astros hired Matt Sinatro as the ML Catching Coach/Advance Scouting Coordinator; Dan Radison is now a special assistant in player development; Mike Elias as a special assistant to the scouting department.

Radison was fired by the Nationals with Jim Riggleman when he said Riggleman was his "best friend in the whole world."
-
But if you're Bobby Heck or Fred Nelson, don't worry, 'cos you're staying right where you are.

Henry Villar designated for assignment, more Martinez

The Astros have designated Henry Villar for assignment to make room for Fernando Martinez on the 40-man roster.

So, for some more about this much-heralded Fernando Martinez:

*Injuries have hampered his progress. According to the Adam Rubin notes Martinez' arthritic knee "that severely limits his mobility, even when he's technically healthy."

*The New York Daily News' Andy Martino:
The Mets publicly conceded what they had long since concluded internally: Martinez’s long history of injuries, which included arthritic knees at the age 23, outweighed his potential. Though one rival executive said, "The talent is still there."

Seedlings to Stars' Wally Fish:
I don’t think it would be fair to call any 22-year old player a bust as long as he’s still in the game and has shown flashes of being a future major league contributor. In the case of Fernando Martinez he has obviously failed to live up to expectations, but from my perspective those expectations were a little unrealistic.

*FanGraphs asked yesterday if Fernando Martinez was worth a waiver claim.
He’s a low-risk buy, but it’s really tough to argue that Martinez is capable of providing a high reward anymore. It’s always possible that Martinez is just a late-bloomer — which is why a team would take a shot on him — but age and performance are no longer on his side.

Astros may have claimed Fernando Martinez

With a captip to a bunch of you, it looks as though (and here) the Astros have claimed 23-year old outfielder Fernando Martinez off waivers from the Mets.

He only has 145 PAs from 2009-11 for the Mets, but has been a much-heralded prospect. Baseball America ranked him in their Top 30 prospects from 2007-09, and put him at #77 prior to 2010.

In three seasons at Triple-A, Martinez has hit .265/.326/.465, with a .776 OPS in six minor-league seasons.

UPDATE: Yeah, the Astros claimed Fernando Martinez.

Adam Rubin has this quote, from Martinez:
"I hope the change of scenery will help me revive my career. I'm anxious to begin this new stage. ... If I'm healthy and I'm given the opportunity, I'm going to hit. Now I'm healthy and only waiting for my work visa in order to go train in Miami and then spring training."

"The single biggest commitment in the history of the Houston Astros"

When the 2006 season ended, the Astros were coming off an 82-80 record, and a final two-month stretch where they went 33-24. On September 28, 2006 Roy Oswalt beat Tom Gorzelanny and the Pirates, 3-0, to close the Cardinals' division lead to half a game. Roger Clemens lost a 4-1 game to the Braves' Chuck James (while the Cardinals beat Milwaukee, 10-5) to push the Astros back to 1.5GB, the final deficit of the season.

But the Astros, at least on paper, had reason to feel good. They were a year removed from a World Series appearance, and had been 1st or 2nd in the division for six straight seasons (and twelve of the previous thirteen seasons from 1994-2006). If you didn't really look at the minor-league system, the Astros had put together as dynastic a franchise as you could find in the NL Central.

Sure, the average age of the position players was 30.5 (and pitchers 29.8), but the Astros were going to do what they had always done - and that was compete. The Astros didn't rebuild. And they had money to spend. Roger Clemens ($12.2m) and Andy Pettitte ($16.4m) were coming off the books for 2007. Oswalt, Adam Everett, Morgan Ensberg, etc, would be getting raises, but nothing approaching the $28m available for free agents.

In 2006, the Astros were last in batting average (.255), next-to-last in slugging (.409), and were in the lower half of OBP (.332), resulting in a .741 OPS, ever-so-slightly higher than the Cubs, and only better than the Pirates. Preston Wilson was the primary LF in 2006, hitting .269/.309/.405 until he got released on August 12 (and signed with the Cardinals six days later), and the Astros could look at possible replacements.

28-year old Luke Scott got 249 PAs, and hit .336/.426/.661 (including 50 games at LF, where he hit .340/.426/.612). Would they give him a chance to be the everyday left fielder?

When free agency opened, there were some big fish out there. Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Aramis Ramirez (who opted out of his deal with the Cubs) were the prime position players in addition to Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, and a Japanese pitcher named Daisuke Matsuzaka.

The name that stood out to most Astros fans was Carlos Lee. Lee was traded midway through the 2006 season by the Brewers (when they realized they weren't going to be able to re-sign him to a long-term deal) to the Rangers on July 28, who were 2.5GB of the Angels, and 2GB of the A's. But the Rangers weren't interested in re-signing Lee.

During 2003-2006, Lee hit .290/.344/.513 (119 OPS+), with 131 homers, 329K:206BB, for (according to FanGraphs) a 14.1 WAR over those four seasons. Also, Lee had a cattle ranch in Wharton. Surely he would be interested in Houston, with its short left field?

But Houston wasn't the only team looking to spend the owner's money. Nick Cafardo listed the Cubs, Red Sox, Orioles, and Astros as the four major players in the 2006 free agent market. The Cubs were interested in Soriano and Lee, as were the Orioles, the Dodgers, and the Phillies.

Phillies' GM Pat Gillick, on Lee:
"He's a nice looking player, someone who would definitely draw some interest," Gillick said, adding he has spoken to Lee's representatives...Lee is listed at 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds and there have been questions about him being out of shape, but Gillick said his size isn't a concern. "Lee is a heck of an athlete," Gillick said.

Baltimore VP Jim Duquette, on Lee:
"We're in the mix, definitely,"

And the Astros were working on signing one of the two - Soriano, or Lee. And then the Cubs signed Soriano to an 8-year, $136 million deal, surprising all of baseball, and surprising Tim Purpura:
"If it's to the numbers that are being reported, we've certainly not been involved to that level. We've certainly been involved to a high level. But to the terms and the dollars (reported for Soriano in Chicago) we haven't been involved that high."

With Soriano off the board to the Cubs (who allegedly outbid the Angels by $50m), those other teams might be persuaded to step up their pursuit of Lee. Meanwhile, Purpura knew he was in a balancing act:
"It's not just about today, it's about tomorrow and on to the future. You don't have the record we've had over 14 years by being shortsighted. It's a real balancing act. You've got to take care of today as well as tomorrow."

The cost of Carlos Lee was getting out of control. On November 21, Justice labeled it an "understatement" to say that the bidding was "far beyond" what the Astros expected.

The Associated Press began free agency predicting that the winning team on Lee would need to go to four years, and $50 million to sign him. But that was before the Soriano deal rocked the market, which meant anyone who wanted Carlos Lee was going to have to fly past the 4yr/$50m mark. Richard Justice said on November 19 that it was down to the Orioles, Phillies, and Astros. And the Orioles were offering six years at $80-90 million, which which Justice suggested the Astros should pass on.

They didn't.

Tim Purpura:
When we met this offseason to plot our strategy, we set up our goals for what we wanted to accomplish in the offseason market in the free-agent market and the trade market. Our first priority was to increase our offensive production in the outfield."

Carlos Lee:
"I know this is a team where I have a good chance to win a championship. I've always liked this team, they're always very good, and I like this ballpark. I like a lot about Houston. That's why I told my agent this was one of the places I'd like to play."

Was it too much money for too many years? Everyone seemed to think so, but it was worth it - at least for now.

Justice:
Drayton McLane overpaid to get Carlos Lee, but he did get him. And because he got him, the Astros didn’t just get better Friday. They got way better. That six-year, $100-million deal is considerably more than the Astros thought they’d have to spend, but the market took a dramatic turn upward with Alfonso’s Soriano’s $136-million deal.

There were concerns about his fielding ability, but the Astros had two power bats in the lineup for the first time since Bagwell left.

Tim Purpura:
"This is a historic commitment to winning,"

Phil Garner:
Carlos will fit very nicely in the middle of that lineup -- oh, my goodness, that's going to be nice. I'm sure that Berkman is over there enjoying his turkey dinner a lot better right now, knowing there's just no way now they're going to get around him. By adding these two guys we'll be definitely better."

Even The Crawfish Boxes (or at least StrosBro) were fired up:
I think we overpaid for Lee, but I think we should have. I'm ecstatic on both of these signings.

Drayton:
"I remember watching Carlos with the White Sox and with the Brewers and he broke our hearts a few times. His statistics are as good as they get...This is by far the biggest single commitment in the history of the Houston Astros."

Ultimately, the Astros made too long of a commitment at too high a price. But that's what we know now. Sure, there was the pre-diarrhea feeling that things were going to go badly, but at the time, from a major-league standpoint, Lee made the Astros better. And after the run the Astros had since 1994, standing pat would upset the fan base.

The deal worked out exactly as it was supposed to, except the Astros weren't ready for it. And the point of the whole preceding Whatever is to show that Lee was highly sought-after, his salary was inflated by the obscene Soriano contract, and the Astros weren't in a position (from your casual "Hey-let's-go-to-the-game-tonight" fan) to start rebuilding one season removed from the World Series.

If you look at the guys around him, Morgan Ensberg dipped from a .283/.388/.557 line in 2005 to a .235/.396/.463 (still enough for an .858 OPS, but propped up by 101 walks in 495 PAs) line in 2006. He made it through 85 games of weakened numbers in 2007 before getting cut. Biggio was gunning for Hit #3000. Berkman was coming off a 1.041 OPS year. We criticize the Astros for not blowing it up earlier, but the Astros wouldn't be really interested in letting Biggio try to get his 3000th hit in an empty stadium.

It's easy to criticize the Carlos Lee deal now that he's going to take up about a third of the Astros payroll in 2012, the final year of his contract. But the context is important.

Interest in Wandy "seems non-existent"

Take it for what it's worth, but Jon Heyman is tweeting that interest in Wandy "seems non-existent" (perhaps because it didn't come up when he was shining Jack Morris' shoes), and adds this helpful tidbit:

Astros should have let #rox take him on claim last summer

Oh yes, that's very helpful, Mr. Heyman.

Otherwise, it looks like Wandy is going to have to put up a solid first-half to draw interest in regards to a trade.

Over the past three seasons, here are Wandy's 1st-Half splits:

20-33, 316.1IP, 322H/133ER, 265K:113BB, 3.78 ERA/1.38 WHIP.

If Wandy posts a first half similar to the last three seasons, would it be worth pulling the trigger on? Especially with his 2nd-Half over the last three seasons:

16-12, 275.1IP, 235H/88ER, 272K:87BB, 2.88 ERA/1.17 WHIP.

And in non-news...

Fox Sports' Jon Morosi says that:

#Astros hearing from a few teams on Carlos Lee but nothing is close, sources say. He would be a terrific fit for #Indians.

Crazy. It's almost like we suggested the same thing on December 6.

Ross Wolf signs with Baltimore

Looks like there are going to be some spots open at OKC, now that the Orioles have signed Ross Wolf to a minor-league deal.

Wolf appeared in 56 games for OKC in 2011, with a 4.76 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Wolf came to the Astros' system from Baltimore in 2010, after he was traded to the Orioles by the A's for Jake Fox.

All of you can calm down about Keith Law now

Keith Law tweeted a few minutes ago that he will not be joining the Astros' front office:

I have chosen to stay with ESPN. It was a difficult decision, and I'm very grateful to the Astros for the opportunity.

However you feel about Keith Law, this would have at least made for an entertaining hire.

Astros sign Tomas Lopez

Via DPL Baseball, the Astros have signed 17-year old 6'3" 190lb RHP Tomas Lopez for $70,000 (Update: DPL Baseball responded to a question to clarify that Tomas Perez is 18 years old).

DPL Baseball:
Lopez throws from a High ¾ arm slot with fastball velocity at 90-91(92), he shows flashes of a solid Curveball with tight rotation and his changeup is deceptive with movement down in the zone.

Update: The Astros have also signed 16-year old RHP Carlos Vasquez and 17-year old Edward Santana.

Felix Francisco, on Santana:
“He’s not a big power guy right now and more of a guy you can project will hit 15-20 home runs. His power will come with time, but he does have good bat speed and good extension.”

A geographic breakdown of the No Bagwell contingent

So I have spent the past hour and a half fuming, and decided to plot the writers who are listed as Nays on Bagwell-to-the-HOF (compiled from LeoKitty and the BBWAA lists) on a Google Earth map. The placemarks aren't their addresses, just reflecting of the cities where the writer is based. Here's what I found... (click the image to enlarge)




But this isn't telling the whole story. Take a closer look at the Chicago Bloc:



Seriously? Nine writers from Chicago didn't think that Bagwell is a Hall of Famer? What the hell? Did Bagwell piss in the river, or ruin the St. Patrick's Day Parade?

Bagwell falls short on 2nd try at Hall of Fame

Well, the Base Ball Writers Association had their heads entrenched firmly up their collective tailpipes yet again. On his 2nd year on the Hall of Fame ballot, Jeff Bagwell received 56% of the vote, up from the 41.7% he received in 2011.

Qs, As with Maury Brown

Many of you are familiar with Maury Brown, founder of the Business of Sports Network (AC links here), mainly because he has been outspoken about Jim Crane for the past several months. In addition to his own site, he is a contributor to Baseball Prospectus, Forbes, and has been referenced for material by the New York Times, Time, USA Today, and a bunch of other publications with which you are already familiar. He also has a tendency to rile up Astros fans, so Maury was good enough to answer a few questions for us...

AC: You were perhaps the most prominent media member outspoken against the ownership of Jim Crane, while most were content to just sit back and let everything play out. What was the motivation behind the exposes on Crane?

MB: Looking at ownership background is something that I've done for over a decade, and doesn't include current owners, but them historically. My look at Crane was only different in the fact that he had been part of several bids (Astros, Cubs, Rangers, and then back to the Astros), and he'd always been portrayed as "unapprovable". I never fully understood that, so I went looking deeper. From there, it became a matter of seeing what had transpired to his businesses and how that fit in with owning an MLB club. I said this for my Forbes piece, but I passionately believe owning a sports club is different than any other business as they are a community asset. The local team instills great emotion in the fans, who have a vested interest. Myself and others, when looking at what had gone on with owners in the past, and now with Frank McCourt, was to say, 'Has baseball, and the fans of the Astros, really addressed everything they need to about who is the steward of the club, or has what has occurred something that can be explained away and was part of the past?' All, I'm sure, are hoping it's the latter.

AC: How would you address the (ad nauseum) comments that, if you're critical of a team, you must certainly hate them?

MB: Blind allegiance is something that's never healthy. Being critical of one aspect does not mean you are critical, as a whole. I've spent many hours researching the history of the Astrodome, the Colt .45s, and the Astros. Judge Hofheinz is one of the most incredible people in the history of, not just baseball, but sports as a whole. So, the "Astros" will continue on in history. Good and bad aspects are parts of all things over time, and that holds true of sports clubs depending on where you look at a snapshot. I certainly don't hate the Astros. If anything, I tend to be more caught up in the moment of what's happening in terms of some of the club's history that's going to be stopped (read: the move out the National League). Fans have a large interest in their local and regional teams. I often write what I do because they matter most.


AC: Who should Astros fans be mad at: Bud Selig, Jim Crane, Drayton McLane, or someone else?

MB: I don't know if "mad" is the right word. In the cold reality of business, there was a seller (McLane) and a buyer (Crane) and there were $680 million reasons for the deal to go through. Mr. McLane has been a perfect member of baseball;s ownership fraternity, and with it, the league surely wanted the sale to work out for all involved. But, I mentioned the situation with McCourt prior and that cast a pale over the owners. If you think about it, owners have run into problems after coming into the league, but few have had the problems Crane had in his background before being approved. McLane had been saying, "Don't trust this guy" after backing out of the sale in 2008, and here he comes saying, "He's great" when the money in the sale is so large. In the end, I'm not going to pass judgement on how Crane runs the Astros. He hasn't had enough time at the helm to be judged one way or the other. But, there are certainly a lot of people paying closer attention to him than some others that have been approved this early on. I believe that's a good thing for the Astros and fans of the team.

AC: On Twitter you said that you wanted to see the Astros get back to being a great franchise. When, do you think, were the "Glory Years" of the Houston Astros?

MB: It's a great question as "glory years" for the Astros comes in a couple of different forms for me. Certainly the creation of the Harris County Domed Stadium, later christened the Astrodome, is something that is one of the greatest feats in the history of sports business. It was full of so many firsts that are now commonplace... roofed facility, luxury suites, in-stadium restaurants, even the colored seating was revolutionary. In terms of the team, I so vividly remember that 18-inning, 7-6 win over the Braves in the postseason of 2005. That team "felt" as if it had all the parts, and the club was riding high. So, it's a little of both. The recent sell-down over the past couple of seasons to get player payroll more manageable for the sale from McLane to Crane was discomforting. It put some front office people in a difficult position, and, as last season clearly showed, it didn't help the Astros in the standings. But, there's a new regional sports network that will infuse the Astros with additional revenues. If the money is used wisely in free agency and wrapping up key talent, while player development is done soundly, there's no reason that the Astros can't be back in the thick of it sooner rather than later.

AC: Astros fans are obviously pretty upset about getting moved to the Kids Table, I mean the American League. As you cover the business side of sports, what's the financial impact of the Astros moving to the AL?

MB: I think the move to the AL, financially, is not as bad as it's being portrayed. I've spent hours speaking to those that are involved in television rights deals, and while this deal has a wrinkle (the Rockets and Comcast being partners with the Astros in the RSN), the fact is while having games starting later due to West Coast games can be partially off-set by saying, look at all the day games in the Eastern Timezone that the Cubs play. And while it's never good to say that the visiting team is a large part of the attendance and TV draw, the fact is, the Astros will be seeing more of the Yankees and Red Sox and as much as there is a large quarter that loathes them, television and attendance numbers will likely be up -- way up -- when they come to Houston. The biggest downside is having to pay for a DH, which often comes with a healthy price tag in the free agency space, and yes, having the late start time for games being played on the West Coast. The biggest thing for the fans is the loss of nearly 50 years of NL history. Coupling that with what Bud Adams did to the Oilers name, and it's just "one more thing". The one thing everyone can agree on is, good or bad, well.... 2013 is going to be a very, very different year for the Astros.
-

UPDATE: I know many if you are upset with me not asking about the Character issue. Fact is, there were things Maury Brown would discuss, and things he would not. His sources about Crane's character were not open for discussion, and I was okay with that. Sorry to disappoint you with this free service, I sincerely hope that you were not put out too terribly much.

Big thanks to Maury Brown for taking the time to answer these questions.

Get your wallets out, Corpus

Hey Corpus, head to the Omni Bayfront Hotel at 11:30am on February 3 for the Astros CAREavan Luncheon.

Tickets are $25, and you'll get to see Shane Reynolds (!), Milo Hamilton (please get him to say something about Berkman, or Beltran), Chris Johnson, J.B. Shuck, and Brian Bogusevic.

Three off to Rookie Career Development Program

Zachary Levine tweeted that J.D. Martinez, Kyle Weiland, and Paul Clemens to the MLB Rookie Career Development Program.

Jonathan Mayo has a 3m30s video on the program (and here's a 2008 profile by Yahoo's Tim Brown.

The Astros' front office is officially smarter than all of us combined

This broke last night, but Jeff Luhnow made two hires:

-Sig Mejdal, who had been with the Cardinals for the past six years, to be the Astros' Director of Decision Sciences.

Luhnow described Mejdal's new role as a systematic method of combining all the information you can collect on players, whether it's using previous performance information, health and medical information and opinions of scouts who have laid eyes on players.

How about Mejdal's background:
Mejdal earned two engineering degrees at the University of California at Davis and later completed advanced degrees in operations research and cognitive psychology/human factors. He has also worked at Lockheed Martin in California and for NASA.

-Stephanie Wilka, coordinator of amateur scouting. Wilka was previously with the Red Sox in PR (More Sweet Caroline, Pam!), and the executive director of the philanthropic arm of the Dodgers. She has an undergrad degree from Harvard, and a law degree from Pepperdine.

(By the by, the Sporting News' Stan McNeal firmly established himself as a douche, labeling Mejdal's title "pretentious," and calling Wilka "a former cheerleader," making specific mention of her womanness. As if that matters.)

All of this is horrifically alarming. How are we supposed to criticize moves if it's obvious that they have been vetted? What if Luhnow makes a trade with the Phillies? How are we expected to be Bloggy Bloggerson if there is this much data-driven analysis behind the team? Being a fan blogger is way different than being a fanboy blogger, but that's what I'm in serious danger of becoming.

The Hardball Times' HOF prediction

With a captip to Hardball Talk, The Hardball Times' Chris Jaffe has some HOF projections. Jaffe - as Craig Calcaterra notes - has a good track record in his HOF projections, posting a 2.4% margin of error last year.

Where does he place Bagwell? 54% - up from 42% in 2011 - behind Barry Larkin (82%) and Jack Morris (65%).

Jaffe:
Bagwell actually had a nice debut last year at 41 percent. Aside from players still on the ballot, all who did at least that well in their first year on the ballot later made it to Cooperstown. Yes, there are steroid rumors, but then again Larkin and Sandberg were both considered clear Hall of Famers and their first years were nowhere near 75 percent. Bagwell’s start was below theirs, but not that much below.