Tuesday, January 3, 2012

The Hardball Times' HOF prediction

With a captip to Hardball Talk, The Hardball Times' Chris Jaffe has some HOF projections. Jaffe - as Craig Calcaterra notes - has a good track record in his HOF projections, posting a 2.4% margin of error last year.

Where does he place Bagwell? 54% - up from 42% in 2011 - behind Barry Larkin (82%) and Jack Morris (65%).

Bagwell actually had a nice debut last year at 41 percent. Aside from players still on the ballot, all who did at least that well in their first year on the ballot later made it to Cooperstown. Yes, there are steroid rumors, but then again Larkin and Sandberg were both considered clear Hall of Famers and their first years were nowhere near 75 percent. Bagwell’s start was below theirs, but not that much below.