Berkman Rips Selig

Busy day in Astro-land, as Lance Berkman is continuing his PR moves in blasting Bud Selig over realignment:

"I feel basically like the commissioner extorted Jim Crane into moving the Astros...If he called me, I would tell him. I think that's exactly what it was. To tell (Crane), 'We're going to hold the sale of the team up until you guys agreed to switch?' It just happened that the Astros were being sold at an optimal time for that to happen."

Crane responded:
"Lance can say what Lance wants to say. He has great ties to the Astros and was a great player there for years. We certainly understand that he's opinionated, but I wouldn't use that strong a term. I think it was just a business deal that got renegotiated."

Astros acquire Kevin Chapman

In the trade to Kansas City, the Astros received Kevin Chapman and a player to be named later (whom Jeff Luhnow noted would be the "key component" of the trade).

Kevin Chapman (24 years old, 6'4", 210lb) was the Royals' 4th Round pick in 2010, and has been a reliever his entire professional career. In 54 games he has thrown 80IP, striking out 110, and walking 36. He spent 2010 at High-A Wilmington, and 2011 between Wilmington and Double-A NW Arkansas.

While the Orlando Sentinel said his fastball hit 96 while at Florida, Chapman said this, about his pitches:
On a good day my fastball is at 92-94, slider 80-83, change-up 83-85. On an off day I really just focusing on getting ahead of the hitters and keeping the ball low in the strike zone.

He missed the entire 2008 season due to Tommy John surgery, but "is now considered one of the better relievers in his draft class."

Looking at his FanGraphs page, there are some major inconsistencies with his ERA/FIP:

2010 ERA: 5.50
2010 FIP: 3.20
2011 ERA: 4.84 (High-A)
2011 FIP: 1.14 (High-A)
2011 ERA: 4.99 (Double-A)
2011 FIP: 4.06 (Double-A)

He has posted BABIPs of .339, .451, and .337 on his pro lines, so don't freak out when you see his ERA.

Bourgeois, Quintero traded to the Royals

As this developing trade situation starts to leak out, we find...

3:03pm: Zachary Levine tweeting that Humberto Quintero is saying his goodbyes.

3:07pm: as is Jason Bourgeois

3:08pm: Both say they don't know where they've been traded.

3:09pm: Matt Thomas says the destination is Kansas City.

3:09pm: There may not be any confirmation today.

3:14pm: McTaggart confirms both have been traded. No team identified yet.

3:15pm: Receiving teams won't confirm, since deal(s) have not been finalized.

3:36pm: Jon Heyman says KC is likely destination.

3:36pm: The Royals Official Twitter Feed says that Quintero and Bourgeois have been traded for minor-league LHP Kevin Chapman, and a Player To Be Named Later.

Jason Bourgeois scratched

Jason Bourgeois was scratched unexpectedly from today's lineup, and was replaced by J.B. Shuck.

No word on why - but you better believe we'll be on top of it.

UPDATE: Zachary Levine reports:
Astros close clubhouse. Nothing confirmed but it sounds like Jason Bourgeois transaction in works. Healthy scratch. Mills wouldn't discuss.

Jed Lowrie removed from game

Jed Lowrie has been removed from today's game and is walking off the field with a trainer, reports Brian McTaggart, who also can't tell if there's anything wrong.

UPDATE: Jed Lowrie fouled a ball off his foot, and says he'll be fine. Because saying, "Oh God, it hurts so much" just won't do.

Lyles hit by comebacker

Brian McTaggart says that Jordan Lyles has been hit in the stomach by a comebacker of the bat of Daniel Descalso to lead off the game. It appears as though he's staying in the game.

UPDATE: But the rest of the inning probably felt about the same way: allowing a 2-run double by Matt "Sugar Nuts" Holliday, and a sac-fly from Berkman.

2012 Payroll: ~$60m

Jim Crane told Brian McTaggart that he expects payroll to be around $60m.

25 players, $60m. That works out to be about $2.4m per player on the Opening Day roster. But of course that's now how this team works.

Carlos Lee ($18m), Brett Myers ($11m), Wandy Rodriguez ($10m), and Brandon Lyon ($5.5m) will make up 74.1% of the payroll (if it's pegged squarely at $60,000,000). More on this later.

Everyone you like? You shouldn't like them

Keith Law, God bless him, is at it again, with an Insider-only post on general fantasy baseball questions. One asks about the "Astros," so here are Law's responses (click the link for the full piece - these are just quick pulls):

On Brett Wallace:
I was a big Wallace fan until a scout pointed out to me in 2010 that Wallace couldn't turn on the ball inside.

On J.D. Martinez:
Fans of really bad teams often overrate the least-bad performers on the roster, and Martinez looks like a classic example of that.

On Jordan Lyles:
I like Jordan Lyles as a long-term mid-rotation starter for Houston, but I don't think he's a high-strikeout guy for 2012.

Also, Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, and George Springer won't be impacting the Astros this season.
-

Thoughts?

It's a fight to the death for the rotation

Your starting rotation is as follows:

1. Wandy Rodriguez
2. Bud Norris
3. J.A. Happ

And two of Livan Hernandez, Zach Duke, Kyle Weiland, and Jordan Lyles. Lucas Harrell and Henry Sosa won't be in the rotation, but are competing for bullpen spots with the big club.

The tale of the tape (Spring Training 2012 edition):

Livan: 12.1IP, 16H/6ER, 5K:2BB, 2HR. 4.38 ERA/1.70 WHIP.
Duke: 11IP, 17H/8ER, 7K:4BB, 2HR. 6.55 ERA/1.91 WHIP.
Weiland: 11IP, 7H/2ER, 7K:5BB, 0HR. 1.64 ERA/1.09 WHIP.
Lyles: 6IP, 8H/4ER, 3K:2BB, 1HR. 6.00 ERA/1.67 WHIP.

We do know that Lyles threw in a minor-league game, so there are some stats that we're missing here. The clear leader - from these stats alone - is Kyle Weiland (yes, on the strength of one start). But the veteran statuses of Livan all but assures him a spot. With Myers shifting to the 9th inning, I'd be ecstatic to see Weiland and Lyles get those last two rotation spots. But I don't think that'll happen. What I could see happening is SP4 going to Livan, SP5 going to Weiland, and Lyles waits in OKC under the tutelage of Burt Hooton until something happens - be that injury or trade.

BREAKING: BRETT WALLACE HITS HOMER OFF LEFTY

Here I was, eating lunch, minding my own business, watching everyone freak out about Peyton Manning, and Zachary Levine tweeted this:

Brett Wallace hit a no-doubt HR to right, where the Astros wanted him driving the ball more. Astros lead Marlins 7-0.

This home run was off Wade LeBlanc, who had yet to give up a homer this spring. Furthermore, Brett Wallace has had 583PAs (90PAs against LHPs) in the Majors over the course of 2010-11, and hit seven homers - all against RHPs.

Looking at ML Splits (and Minor League Central for 2011), we can find that in 1383 minor-league plate appearances, Wallace hit 47 homers. 402 of those PAs came against LHPs, and he hit a total of 9 homers in those PAs.

Going through his MLB stats page, he had not hit a homer off a lefty in any Spring Training. So, as best as we can tell, today was the first time Brett Wallace hit a homer off a left-handed Major-League pitcher.

A Match for Quintero?

Buster Olney tweeted out that the Phillies might be in need of a backup catcher, but with a caveat:

Phillies are looking for a backup catcher -- an upgrade over the other backup C candidates they have in their camp.

So the Astros have Jason Castro, Chris Snyder...and Humberto Quintero. Might there be a match? I guess first we need to look and see if Quintero is better than any of their options:

Erik Kratz#
Brian Schneider#
Tuffy Gosewisch*
Steven Lerud*

# - Active Roster
* - Non-Roster Invitees

Name	Age	2011 PAs	Avg/OBP/SLG	K:BB	CS%
Quintero	32	272	.240/.258/.317	53:6	23%
Schneider	35	139	.176/.246/.256	35:11	13%
Kratz*	31	409	.288/.372/.466	72:38	30%
Gosewisch**	28	406	.247/.295/.404	61:20	33%
Lerud**	26	262	.193/.268/.303	61:20	33%

*Triple-A in 2011
**Double-A in 2011

There's really no way to look at Q's splits, and see anything pretty. In 2011, his OPS peaked at .919 on April 14. From May 1-end of season, Quintero hit .228/.237/.297., while the Astros went 18-44 in games where he made an appearance.

Still, Tuffy Gosewisch spent 2011 in Double-A, as did Steven Lerud (and wasn't good). Erik Kratz spent it in Triple-A. Brian Schneider was even worse than Quintero. Nobody here thinks Q is of C1 caliber, but is he a serviceable backup (for $1m?). Maybe. Is there a match? I doubt it, but if Jeff Luhnow gets Domonic Brown for Q, then it will be the GM equivalent of tarring and feathering Ed Wade.

Schafer "really sore"

Brian McTaggart talked to Jordan Schafer, who had this to say about his left hand:

“It’s really sore today. Like they told me, with a sprain the next day is probably going to be the worst. I’m just happy it’s not broken. I’m OK with missing a couple of days, but I just didn’t want the break and to miss a couple of months. I’m happy it’s only a sprain.”

Additionally, Schafer doesn't like Tal's Hill:
"I don't necessarily think that hill is the safest of things out there. I think it's more of a danger than anything else. I think it's only a matter of time before someone goes out there and gets seriously hurt. But it's a part of our field. It's something I have to get comfortable with and learn and make adjustments to."

Today's lineup is awfully young

Brian McTaggart posted today's lineup, and we (as well as Brooks) noticed that it featured a young group. How young? Well, the average age is 24.55.

J.B. Shuck - 24
Jose Altuve - 21
Brian Bogusevic - 28
J.D. Martinez - 24
Jason Castro - 24
Chris Johnson - 27
Brett Wallace - 25
Marwin Gonzalez - 23
Kyle Weiland - 25

There's absolutely no way I'm taking the time to go and see if this is the youngest lineup of the Spring, or of franchise history, or ever, but it's pretty fun.

Jeff Luhnow respectfully disagrees with Phil Rogers

In response to Phil Rogers' column from yesterday where Rogers alleged the Astros weren't happy with Carlos Lee coming to camp at 274 pounds, Jeff Luhnow tweeted:

Respectfully disagree with @ChiTribRogers on @Carlos45Lee - reporting weight similar to years past and working hard. Potentially big year.

Steve Campbell responded to our tweet, asking whether Rogers' report was accurate, saying:
"I wouldn't reject out of hand. Wasn't here when he reported, so I don't know what dialogue was on the subject at the time."

So there's that.

If only Fernando Martinez could have stayed healthy...

Mets manager Terry Collins said today, about Fernando Martinez:

“Yeah, if he was here, he would’ve been a contender for the spot,” Collins said. “He’s still got a chance to hit the ball out of the ballpark and be a dangerous hitter, but we can’t get him out there and keep him out there. I hope he’s healthy and he has a long career. It was always scary when you called to find out how he was doing, that he wasn’t playing.”

Jordan Schafer sprains hand

In today's win over the Mets, Jordan Schafer left the game "holding his hand/wrist" after making a diving catch in the 3rd inning. The X-Rays were negative, despite Schafer saying he felt something pop.

The official word is that it's a sprain, and he's day-to-day. He'll probably miss a few days, but it's worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Xavier Cedeno impressing Astros

What with Sergio Escalona's elbow not cooperating, the Astros are looking at alternatives for the LH reliever role. Enter Xavier Cedeno.

Mills:
"It's nice to see him come in and face some pretty good hitters. He was able to throw strikes with all his pitches from different angles. I think that was the big thing for him."

Brett Gardner flew out struck out, Curtis Granderson flew out, and Robinson Cano struck out in the 4th inning against Cedeno yesterday.

Cedeno had been a full-time starter in the minors from when his pro career started in 2005 until 2009, when he appeared in a career-high 44 games and was injured, didn't play in 2010. He started 19 of 23 games for Corpus in 2011, and three of 12 for OKC before having a miserable 1.2IP for Houston at the end of 2011.

Campfire Talk: Carlos Lee is 24 pounds overweight

The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers has a quick note about Carlos Lee, saying that the Astros had hoped he would report at 250 pounds, and instead came in at 274.

Rogers:
He and Brett Myers aren't exactly role models for a young team.

Angel Heredia suspended

Minor-leaguer Angel Heredia was suspended 50 games for testing positive for two different kinds of PEDs.

We don't know hardly anything about Heredia. So there's that.

The Second Cut is also deep

The Astros sent a few more players on to the backfields this morning:

Juan Abreu
Brandon Barnes
Paul Clemens
Rene Garcia
Jake Goebbert
Diory Hernandez
Lance Pendleton
Jonathan Singleton
Chris Wallace

Baseball America's Best-Case/Worst-Case

Baseball America posted their Best-Case/Worst-Case scenarios for each team in 2012.

Everyone has "Win the World Series," or "Return to contention in 2013!" The Astros' best-case? They don't f*** up the #1 pick. Awesome.

Astros sign Landon Powell

Alyson Footer says that the Astros have signed former A's catcher Landon Powell to a minor-league deal.

Powell was the A's 1st-Round pick (24th overall) in 2004, out of South Carolina, and won't be a free agent until 2016. He'll be 30 next week.

Powell wasn't much with the bat in his career. He hit .229/.297/.429 in 2009, his rookie season, where he got 155 PAs and half of his 14 XBHs went for homers. In 2011, he saw 36 games (122 PAs) of action for the A's, but hit .171/.246/.225. In 2008 Powell saw 88 games of action, and drew 63 walks in 367 PAs. His affiliation with the A's, and primarily their Triple-A club (where he hit .235/.358/.414 in four seasons (118 games, total), means that he's at least passing acquaintances with OKC manager Tony DeFrancesco.

The Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan (aside from being one of the best blog names around) had this to say about Powell's cutting from the A's:
I wish Powell luck, he seems a good guy, will forever be a part of A’s history for being the backstop during Dallas Braden‘s perfect game. But from a baseball standpoint there wasn’t much of value having Powell on the roster.

Powell has dealt with knee injuries in the past, but also - more seriously - has autoimmune hepatitis, a rare liver disease with no cure, and will need a liver transplant in the next 10-15 years.

What does it mean? I don't know. He hasn't been an everyday catcher since 2006, when he caught 102 games over the course of the season. It probably doesn't bode well for Carlos Corporan, or maybe Humberto Quintero.

MLBPA: Astros' realignment was owners' idea

Zachary Levine talked to MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner about the Union's role in realignment.

It’s been the union’s stance really since expansion that 15-15 would be the preferred alignment. … We were very pleased that the owners wanted to move to 15-15 this time.

How that was accomplished was up to the owners, whether the Astros were going to be the team to move or a different team. The easiest way to accomplish that was to move a National League Central team to the American League West, to move a team from the six-team division to the four-team division because that necessitates only the one move. 15-15 was important to us. How that was accomplished was up to the owners.

And, of course, Weiner is not happy about the south-bound trend of the Astros' payroll, and there's an odd little note towards the end of his response:

We’re never happy when you have a franchise that’s had the kind of success that the Astros have had over the years drop the payroll. The way the system works, though, is that there are incentives and protections to make sure that all teams that are receiving revenue-sharing dollars are trying to field a competitive team, and we’re confident that the Astros are going to comply with that and try to field a competitive team.

Click the link for the whole interview - it's an interesting one.

Red Sox and Tigers "most focused" on Lannan

On the heels of yesterday's post about the Astros' interest in John Lannan, Hardball Talk has this update, which lists the Red Sox and Tigers as the ones "most focused" on the Nationals' 6th starter.

June 10, 1969 might be the scariest day in Astros history

Larry Granillo has a post up at BP talking about an on-field incident at the Astrodome on June 10, 1969:

Alou started in slowly and Torres hurried back. While the ball dropped just behind and to the side of them, their heads banged and they sprawled helplessly on the Astroturf.

The ball went for a three-run homer and gave the Pirates a temporary 4-0 lead.

[Pittsburgh trainer Tony] Bartirome reached Alou first. Noticing that Alou had swallowed his tongue, Bartirome pulled it out, inserted a rubber hose and inflated the hose.

This reopened Alou's throat and restored a normal air flow into the lungs.

"He looked like he was dead," Houston infielder Denis Menke said of Alou. "It was the hardest collision I've ever seen."

Umpire Al Barlick, one of the first on the confused scene, said "Alou's eyes were turning blue. Those trainers did a great job of taking care of him."

Everything turned out fine in the end, but...good God.

Random random Astro - Denny Lemaster

It's time for the long awaited next installment in Random random Astro. In this post, let's reminisce about left handed pitcher Denver "Denny" Lemaster.

Denny pitched for Houston from 1968-1971 after being traded from Atlanta following an All-Star season with Denis Menke for Chuck Harrison and Sonny Jackson. He spent the first two and a half seasons with Houston as a starter before converting to relief to finish his career. Overall with Houston he was 30-46 with six saves and a 3.40 ERA.

His first two seasons with Houston were the two best of his career and included a few outstanding starts. On May 2, 1968 Lemaster faced a St. Louis team led by Orlando Cepeda that would go on to the World Series. Denny gave up just three hits and one walk, striking out five as he shutout the Cardinals for a 4-0 victory.

Two months later, the Reds came to Houston to face Lemaster. On July 2, 1968 Denny gave up just four hits and one walk while striking out seven, including Johnny Bench twice, as he shutout Cincinnati for a 2-0 victory.

1969 saw some changes in the National League, as the Astros joined the newly formed NL West. In a June 22 game against new division rival San Diego, Lemaster locked into a pitcher's duel with Joe Niekro as neither of the two would allow a run through the first six innings. In the end the Astros rode Denny's arm to victory, winning 2-0. Denny scattered five hits with a walk and seven strikeouts for his last career shutout.

Following the 1971 season, Lemaster was sold to the Montreal Expos.

These days Denny Lemaster can be found around Lincoln County, Georgia spending his days fishing and wood carving.

Astros watching John Lannan

Danny Knobler tweeted out that the Astros joined the Red Sox and Tigers in watching Nationals pitcher John Lannan today.

Lannan, a 27-year old 6'4" LHP, was 10-13 last year with a 3.70 ERA/1.46 WHIP for Washington, and has posted sub-4.00 ERA in three of his last four seasons (but has outperformed his FIP in every year but 2010). He's under contract for $5m in 2012.

Astros have been contacted about sharing Spring Training facillities

The New York Times' Barry Meier has an article about the Mets looking to share Spring Training facilities with someone, anyone.

County officials here say they have also contacted the Houston Astros, who play in Kissimmee, Fla., but whose new owner happens to own a golf course just south of here.

That's true. Jim Crane bought The Floridian Golf & Yacht Club from former Marlins owner Wayne Huizenga for $25.6m in April 2010. The Floridian is 9.7 miles south of Port St. Lucie, Florida.

An article on MLB.com last night talked about Crane touring the Yankees facilities, presumably to get ideas for improving the situation in Kissimmee:
"We're definitely studying the facilities. We're going to take a walk around inside. Of course, the Yankees are at the top of the food chain, so we want to work our way up. This is a great facility. I think the facility we have up there is nice in Kissimmee. You've got to look at everything when you're doing that."

The Astros are under contract with Kissimmee through 2015.

Would you trade for Kyle Drabek?

The Blue Jays were apparently interested in Wandy Rodriguez at last year's Trade Deadline. Well, MLBTR is linking to Ken Rosenthal, who is saying that the Blue Jays could be interested in moving Brett Cecil, or Kyle Drabek (though with Drabek's trade value down, they're reluctant to move him now).

Earlier today, Rosenthal listed the Blue Jays as a team looking to add starting pitching.

Might there be a match with, say, Wandy Rodriguez?

Drabek basically grew up in clubhouses, with father Doug. Kyle (September 2010):
“Being out there with all those guys, it was a lot of fun just seeing what they do. Not so much inside the clubhouse, but having the opportunity to talk to other players other than my dad. . . . Like, with the Astros, guys like Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, talking to them helped so much as I grew up and got drafted.”

The Woodlands' Kyle Drabek was in the deal that brought Roy Halladay to Philadelphia, but has a career 5.83 ERA in 21 games (17 starts) with the Blue Jays. He got tagged especially hard in 2011, when in 78.2IP, he struck out 51 batters and walked 55, for a 1.81 WHIP. Even worse, for the Blue Jays' Triple-A Las Vegas in 2011, he threw 75IP, allowing 111H/62ER, 45K:41BB, for a 7.44 ERA/2.03 WHIP - for a total line of 96K:96BB in 153.2IP.

So that's not good, but he was a Top-30 prospect heading into 2011. Add to that Astros pitching coach Doug Brocail played with Doug Drabek in 1995 and 1996, and there could be an intriguing match on a flyer with Kyle Drabek for a pitcher the Blue Jays have shown interest in before.

Astros' ETA for contention

Keith Law has an Insider-only post up at ESPN on when five teams can realistically expect to compete.

We don't pull much from pay-sites, but Law basically says the Astros can realistically expect to compete in 2018. Law:
Even great drafting won't give them a winning club in 2015-16, and real contention is probably two full cycles away.

In 2018:

Bud Norris will be 34; Brett Wallace, Jordan Schafer, and J.B. Shuck will be 32; J.D. Martinez will be 31; George Springer will be 30; Jose Altuve and Jarred Cosart will be 29; Jordan Lyles and Jonathan Singleton will be 28. Milo Hamilton will be 91. I'll have a 6-year old daughter, who should just be appreciating (and able to remember) the Astros' resurgence.

Where should Springer start the season?

This morning I had a pretty massive brain fart when tweeting out that I bet the ValleyCats would be pissed if George Springer goes straight to Lexington. Of course the Astros aren't going to let him miss the first two months of the season waiting around for NYPL ball, so that one is totally on me.

However, it brings up a good point. Where should George Springer start the season?
First of all, it's worth noting that Springer turned 22 last September.

The average age of batters in the California League was 22.7 in 2011. In the South Atlantic League, it was 21.4. So if Springer goes to Lexington, he'll be a little older than most of the players (while pitchers averaged 21.9 years old). If the Astros think he's sufficiently advanced, they could send him straight to Lancaster, where he should put up ridiculous power numbers, but still be a touch younger than his competition.

With the need to move the higher-profile prospects along, I think it could go either way. Since Springer only has eight games' worth of professional (non-2012 Spring Training) experience, I could see him opening the year at Lexington and, if he rakes, moving up to Lancaster fairly quickly. Double-A isn't out of the question by the end of the season...

The First Cut is the Deepest

The Astros have sent six players to minor-league camp:

Delino DeShields
Jorge De Leon
Arcenio Leon
George Springer
Henry Villar
Jonathan Villar

None of these are terribly shocking. But, as Levine noted, that Jonathan Singleton was not re-assigned is a surprise.

Wilton Lopez shut down with forearm stiffness

Wilton Lopez has been shut down with forearm stiffness "for a few days," but Brad Mills doesn't think it's all that serious. In 3IP this Spring, Lopez has allowed 0H/0ER, 5K:0BB.

Brocail wants to cut Norris' strikeouts

Astros pitching coach Doug Brocail wants Bud Norris to lower his strikeouts this season, to make him more efficient:

“Here’s a guy who’s going to throw 200 innings-plus for us this year. I personally would like to see the strikeouts cut down and more contact so that he can have quicker innings and not have so many pitches at the end of the year. The more I can keep him in the game and the less pitches he throws, the more chances we have of winning the ballgame.”

Norris threw 3,195 pitches in 2011 to 795 batters, for an average of 3.96 pitches per batter. The Astros - as a rotation - threw 16,258 pitches to 4,174 batters for a 3.90 PPB ratio. Even more knowledge: All starters across MLB faced 124,544 batters, throwing 470,896 pitches, which works out to 3.78 PPB. So, yeah, Norris throws .18 pitches per batter more than average (or, about 1 pitch per five batters).

For comparison's sake:

Brett Myers: 3.65 PPB
Wandy Rodriguez: 3.89 PPB
J.A. Happ: 4.26 PPB

I think this George Springer fella will work out just fine

Within Zachary Levine's piece on George Springer's big night (catch, go-ahead RBI double, steal, run), about the Yankees...

Springer:
“I hate ‘em.”

Lowrie sees himself as the #2 hitter

In an interview with his hometown paper, Jed Lowrie sees himself hitting second in the lineup:

"I have hit everywhere in the lineup. Minus third, I hit everywhere in Boston. I see myself in the two hole at the top of the lineup. But I don't get paid to make those decisions."

Now you can make your girl all hot and whatever in Astros gear

Here's some good news for those of you guys with women who like lingerie. Victoria's Secret decided to go ahead and add the Astros (as well as six other teams) for their PINK collection.

I'll tell you this much: If I accidentally put on a pink Astros thong, and they win 12 straight, I'll ride that out all season long.

Astros rank 26th in organizational rankings

Kevin Goldstein posted his Organizational Ranking list at Baseball Prospectus, and your Astros rank 26th.

Things are looking up thanks to the Hunter Pence trade and 2011 first-round pick George Springer, but it's still the same ol' mess after that.

At least the Astros are ahead of the Tigers, Brewers, Phillies, and White Sox. As far as the AL West is concerned, here you go: A's (4th), Rangers (6th), Mariners (7th), Angels (23rd).

Hey! Don't go to the baseball camp in Corpus today!

If you signed up for the Ryan-Sanders Baseball School, supposed to run from today through Wednesday, stay home because it's been canceled with nary an explanation given...

TCB's Injury Report

The Other Astros Fan in Nashville, otherwise known as Brooks (Subber10), has an excellent look at the injuries of Sergio Escalona and Humberto Quintero.

Monday Morning Link Dump

To catch you up from yesterday's news:

*The idea is for Cosart to be in Major-League Camp next Spring.

*Paul Clemens has been listening to Brett Myers, Bud Norris, David Carpenter, and Livan Hernandez.

*Greg Lucas says there's no reason not to pick Mark Appel with the 1-1 in June.

*Lyon didn't feel right, Escalona seems to be healthy, and Angel Sanchez was supposed to make his Spring debut yesterday - but the game was rained out (+1, God.)

Spring Training Stats Check-In

The Astros only have a handful of guys with >10ABs, but let's just take a look and see how things are stacking up:

Jordan Schafer (15ABs): .333/.333/.467, 2K:0BB, 4R
Chris Johnson (14ABs): .286/.286/.571, 3K:0BB, HR
J.D. Martinez (14ABs): .357/.375/.786, 3K:1BB, 8RBI
Jose Altuve (13ABs): .308/.308/.385, 2K:0BB
Jason Bourgeois (12ABs): .250/.308/.333, 2K:0BB
Matt Downs (12ABs): .417/.417/.667, 1K:0BB
Marwin Gonzalez (12ABs): .083/.154/.083, 2K:1BB
Fernando Martinez (12ABs): .250/.308/.583, 4K:1BB, HR
Brad Snyder (12ABs): .250/.308/.500, 3K:1BB
Brett Wallace (12ABs): .083/.214/.083, 3K:2BB
Jason Castro (10ABs): .400/.455/.500, 2K:1BB
Jack Cust (10ABs): .000/.231/.000, 3K:3BB
Jed Lowrie (10ABs): .300/.462/.500, 1K:3BB
Chris Snyder (10ABs): .400/.455/1.100, 1K:1BB, 2HR

Other notables:
Carlos Lee (9ABs): .222/.222/.222
Brian Bogusevic (9ABs): .111/.333/.111, 3K:2BB, 3SB

Quintero update

Steve Campbell checked in on Q, and reported this:

Humberto Quintero (bulging disk) says his injury was causing discomfort in right hip. Will catch a bullpen Sat, work on blocking balls Sun(day).

Livan Hernandez hit by line drive

Livan Hernandez left after 2.1IP today after getting hit (in the leg) by a line drive off the bat of Ryan Zimmerman. Which is, apparently, nothing to worry about.

Livan:
"I feel good now, but we'll see tomorrow. There's nothing to worry about. I had one more hitter, so it's better to go out there."

Idiots win, Luhnow has to send an apology to Texas

So Jeff Luhnow had to send a completely unnecessary apology to Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan for the Drunken Sailors comment.

“I reached out to Jon and to Nolan because it was taken out of context. I don’t know what they heard, but I did reach out to them and explained that it was not a dig against that organization because they’ve done a great job there.”

It seems as though Evan Grant, the Rangers beat reporter for the Dallas Morning-News, took more offense at it than anybody else, when he tweeted:
I find Luhnow's approach to scouting, player development and general respect of the game pretty insulting.

Grant didn't even like that Luhnow was at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference to begin with:
Leaving first spring training to speak at conference speaks of misplaced priorities.

Or this gem, to Ted Price:
Have you figured out the WATTS (Wins Above Tea-Totaling Sailors) formula yet?

How about these?
(Part I):
Didn't see Fraley's report on Astros GM saying Rangers spending like "drunken sailors" in Latin America. Reaction: Win a game as GM first.

(Part II):
If I hadn't made this clear: It's ultimate arrogance to speak as expert at sports analytic conference before helming a single game as a GM.

(Part III):
You lose credibility to me when you take shots at others to justify your success.

(Part IV):
Guy rubs me wrong way.

(Part V):
He was part of organization in STL. Let's not give him all the credit.

So, Evan Grant wins. I guess.

MLB: Maybe the Gun is fine

Zachary Levine just tweeted:

MLB gave Astros go-ahead to put pistol on Colt .45 jersey if they want. They'll decide by tomorrow and announce.

We did it!*

(* - maybe not)

Oh yes, the Ten Best Things About Being an Astros Fan

Over at Yahoo's Big League Stew, The Constable wrote up The Ten Best Things About Being an Astros Fan.

The Jose Altuve Project

Mike Podhorzer recently gave readers over at Rotographs a behind the scenes look at how he projected Jose Altuve's performance for 2012. It's from a fantasy perspective, but the analysis is good regardless. There's not really a money quote, so I'm just going to send you over there to read it yourself. I will say, though, that I've yet to see a well-respected analyst really have anything negative to say about Altuve and his potential for this season and beyond.

Wade was just following orders

Jerome Solomon has an article up about Ed Wade:

It says something about his character that Wade still won't criticize former Astros owner Drayton McLane for basically gutting the franchise and not giving Wade a chance to put together a competitive ballclub.

Wade didn't call the plays; he just ran the offense.

"It behooves one to follow the directives of the owner," Wade said.

Nationals interested in Bourgeois

In a concerted plan by every NL East team to have a former Astro on their roster, the Nationals have checked in on Jason Bourgeois "at least three times" since the Winter Meetings.

Probably like this:
Rizzo: "What about Bourgeois?"
Luhnow: "Nah."
Rizzo: (Hangs up. Waits 15 minutes.)
Rizzo: "What about Bourgeois?"
Luhnow: "Huh-uh."
Rizzo: (Hangs up. Waits 15 minutes.)
Rizzo: "Hey Jeff, Rizz here. Say, you have a player-"
Luhnow: "Nope."
Rizzo: (Softly puts phone back in cradle*)

MLB.com's Bill Ladson said the two sides aren't close on a deal.

*I don't know why I have the Nationals GM using a phone from the 1950s.

FanGraphs' Top 15 Astros Prospects

FanGraphs' Marc Hulet posted the Astros' 15 top prospects. Click the link for the descriptions, but here's the list:

1. Jonathan Singleton
2. George Springer
3. Jarred Cosart
4. Brett Oberholtzer
5. Paul Clemens
6. Jonathan Villar
7. Domingo Santana
8. Delino DeShields, Jr.
9. Telvin Nash
10. Adrian Houser
11. Austin Wates
12. Mike Foltynewicz
13. Jack Armstrong, Jr.
14. Ariel Ovando
15. Kyle Weiland

Sleeper: Jordan Scott

Jeff Luhnow laughs at your "$11m closer!" argument

Anthony Castrovince has an article on Brett Myers, in which Jeff Luhnow addresses the concerns about paying a closer $11m for a team that lost 106 games last year.

Luhnow:
"It's funny, because there's a very basic concept that you learn in business school, which is forget sunk costs (I think he's reading you, Trostel). From where I'm standing, it doesn't matter what we're paying Myers this year, because that contract is signed, and we owe him that. So it makes no sense to justify where that asset is based off the market value of that position externally. If he can help us more in the bullpen, then he can help us more in the bullpen. And then it opens up the opportunity to evaluate somebody else that's ready that maybe you wouldn't have a chance to.

(and as though he read this piece):
"I thought it was funny how all of a sudden people were talking about how expensive our bullpen is. It's not like we went out and signed an $11 million closer. It's just that he's here, and that's where he goes."

Quintero: Yep, still hurt

Humberto Quintero's chances of remaining with the Big Club were sketchy to begin with, but with Zachary Levine's tweet, they're slowly dwindling:

Humberto Quintero going back to Houston to see doctor about inflammation in upper leg. May get anti-inflammatory shot.

Update: He also has a messed up back. Levine responded to a tweet about Q's various ailments and injuries:
They think its origin was in the back and inflammation and a nerve affecting lower down.

Kyle Weiland turned to the internet to see if he should be excited about coming to Houston. And he was.

The New York Times' Tyler Kepner profiled the Astros today, and is quite complimentary of Jeff Luhnow.

On the Weiland/Lowrie trade for Melancon, Weiland saw he had a good opportunity via the internet:
“I was kind of shocked. I immediately jumped online and started researching what’s going on with the Astros, and got excited really quick. There’s a lot of opportunity, a lot of changes over here, and it seems to be all for the better.”

Your close, from Kepner:
Years of poor drafting led to last season’s fall, and the organization has a long way to go. But with Luhnow’s strong drafting record and a windfall of television money coming soon, there are reasons to believe the Astros could someday complete the makeover that started with two Boston refugees.

Notes from ST3

So it's pretty dadgum hard to wrap up a Spring Training game, but we're going to try. As a side note, you'll have yourselves a new County Clerk come the time when the games actually mean something, so we'll be introducing him soon.

Anyhow, in this 10-5 loss to Atlanta, which drops the Astros to 2-1 on the Spring...

*The Astros only led for a half inning, cutting a two-run deficit twice before taking a 5-4 lead in the bottom of the 6th. The Braves got four runs in the top of the 7th, and added a run in each of the 8th/9th innings.

*The walk parade continued today, with the Astros drawing six total - two from Jonathan Villar and Scott Moore, and one by Brian Bogusevic and Jason Castro.

*The Astros did leave six runners in scoring position with two outs, going 4x16 w/RISP.

*Brian Bogusevic also stole his first two bases of the season, while J.B. Shuck was thrown out at 2B.

*Jordan Lyles threw 2IP, 4H/2ER, 1K:1BB; Xavier Cedeno faced four batters - striking out three and allowing what was apparently a monster homer to Dan Uggla.

*Zach Duke threw 3IP, 3H/1ER, 0K:2BB; Rhiner Cruz got the Ugly, allowing 2H/4R (3ER), 0K:2BB without recording an out. Henry Villar was the only pitcher to not allow a run, with Juan Abreu and Enerio Del Rosario each giving up an earned run.

Jordan Lyles:
"Today, the command wasn't there. That's what you expect the first time out facing live hitters."

Sigh...

Zachary Levine tweeted this picture. Big question is, who would buy an autographed misspelled uniform of a former Astro for $175?

Jim Crane isn't happy with MLB

Big League Stew has an update in which Jim Crane wrote back to a now-former Astros fan, about the removal of the gun from the Colt .45s throw-backs:

Crane:
Thank you for your comments concerning the Colt .45s jersey. I would like to say up front that I agree with you. Unfortunately, MLB has made this a requirement and their decisions are out of our control.

Luhnow, on player valuations

Tim Dierkes has a post up on MLBTR about the next wave of player analysis - one that includes a response from Jeff Luhnow (hey, a smart and well-regarded GM. What are we supposed to do with this?)

"The frontier from my perspective is really turning that player evaluation into player valuation. When Scott [Boras] and I have a conversation about a player, this player may be 12 runs above average and another player might be 10 runs above average, but there's so many other factors that go into whether I'm going to be willing to pay more or less for that player."

There's more to it, so click the link.

AC around the interwebs

So we answered some questions about the 2012 Astros for a couple of places around the interwebs:

Over at Razzball.
Money quote:
And when (J.D. Martinez) is not raking, he catches drug mules and delivers snappy one-liners with his sunglasses in hand.

And C70 (with Appy Astros and A Girl in the South mixed in, as well).
Money Quote:
The thing about 2012 I'm most excited about is Carlos Lee's expiring contract, and seeing the younger guys the Astros have drafted/traded for develop for the future.

Minor League Ball's Mock June Draft

Hey, here's a Mock Draft for June 2012.

Who do they have the Astros taking with 1-1?
The Astros need talent. Their system is going the right direction and they need a top of the line pitcher. While Giolito may have a higher ceiling, history tells me that the college guy will be more of a sure thing. I have to go with more certainty and take my favorite college arm. Astros will take Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU.

FYI, Mark Appel fell "all the way" to 1-5, "taken" by the Royals.

Monday Morning Update

Some updates for you on this fine day...

Carlos Lee will return to the lineup tomorrow.

Humberto Quintero is still "a few days away."

Jimmy Paredes and Angel Sanchez will take some BP today in preparation of live BP tomorrow.

On the mound today against the Braves, who gave up nine homers yesterday (six from Julio "Tater" Teheran), will be Jordan Lyles and Zach Duke.

Prospect makeup

Sorry, this isn't a hard hitting expose on the beauty routines of our minor league players. Instead, I wanted to talk a little bit about an often overlooked aspect in the development of prospects. While pitchers' fastballs are measured to the tenth of a mile per hour and runners' times to first down to the hundredth of a second, it's hard to measure what may be the most important quick twitch reaction: the one that triggers between the ears.

Prospect lore is riddled with tales of can't miss studs who can't handle the pressure. I'm not going to call out by name the guys I'm questioning in this post, but there are a couple of our top prospects that I really wonder if they have their head on straight. I can't help but question the maturity of a kid whose public twitter posts are mostly cryptic, passive-aggressive, whining about his girlfriend.

Then we read stories like this one over at The Grand Old Game. In this short post about DDJ, we're confronted by this question: "how much heart does he have for the game?"

I know they're just kids, but they're kids the Astros have invested a lot of money in. These are the prospects we're hoping will lead the resurgence of Houston baseball. They could have enormous arm strength or bat strength, but do they have the mental strength necessary to be the player we all project them to be?

Today in unsurprising news...

Jeff Luhnow, at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, said that he has had a clean slate as far as analytics go, because the Astros hadn't been very analytical before. As you were.

No Carlos Lee this weekend

You likely won't be seeing Carlos Lee at first base this weekend, friends, as he has a hamstring issue.

Reply of the day comes courtesy of John Wessling:
but all Carlos heard was HAM. Mmmmmmm...HAM!

Lineups!

Thank God, we can actually talk about lineups now. When the Astros take the field tomorrow against the Nationals, this is what you'll see from a defensive standpoint:

SP - Livan Hernandez
C - Jason Castro
1B - Carlos Lee
2B - Jose Altuve
3B - Chris Johnson
SS - Jed Lowrie
LF - J.B. Shuck
CF - Jason Bourgeois
RF - Travis Buck
DH - Jack Cust

Jay Austin Injury

Zach Levine reported last night that minor league outfielder Jay Austin will miss time with a broken hand. 

Outfielder Jay Austin, a second-round pick in 2008, suffered a broken hand and will miss four weeks before rehab.“We were concerned three or four days ago that it was something that might require surgery and that’s not the case right now,” director of player development Fred Nelson said.

Last season Jay hit .242/.313/.336 with 23 steals as he split time between Lexington and Lancaster.

Will Carroll's Team Health Report

SI.com's Will Carroll posted his Team Health Reports for all 30 teams. But we don't care about all 30 teams. Click the link, because it's definitely well-worth your time, but here are some notable items:

On Jed Lowrie:
I don't begrudge any guy his chance, but Lowrie is better in small doses. He can be streaky, but he tends to be overexposed, which leads to injuries, as it did last year. Wrist and shoulder injuries affect his rating a lot more than mono, but it's the kind of thing that seems to pop up with this kind of player. The Astros have Matt Downs backing things up as their super-sub, but he's just a poor man's Lowrie. How much the medical staff can prop up Lowrie through small dings will go a long way in helping the team.

Brett Myers' fastball in 2011

So I played around with (the invaluable) Brooks Baseball Brett Myers card, because I'm curious about his velocity in 2011. So let's look.

In April 2011, Myers threw his four-seamer 27% of the time for an average of 89.39mph.
May 2011: 28%, 89.06mph
June 2011: 19%, 89.25mph
July 2011: 25%, 88.95mph
August 2011: 31%, 90.35mph
September 2011: 17%, 89.36mph

How about 2010?
April 2010: 21%, 90.8mph
May 2010: 19%, 90.6mph
June 2010: 19%, 90.7mph
July 2010: 16%, 90.5mph
August 2010: 10%, 89.8mph
September 2010: 17%, 89.3mph

So Myers' fastball averaged over 90mph from April-July 2010, and has only enjoyed one month above 90mph avg (Aug 2011 - where he threw a higher percentage of four-seamers - by far) since July 2010.

This is more of a Public Service Announcement post than anything, other than that it doesn't look like Myers' velocity took a big hit from one month to the next - meaning it's not as though he went from throwing 94mph to throwing 87mph one month to the next. Do with this information what you will.

Anyone who had Feb 29 as The Day Mills Lost His Mind can collect at the window

Zachary Levine just tweeted:

Brad Mills is running the bases in a pickoff drill and making sounds like Curly from the 3 Stooges. That's all.

More on this Brett Myers thing

...I've now had some time to think more about this Brett Myers situation. Freeing up 200IP in the rotation is a major plus for a guy who took a significant step backwards in 2011 (as if no one could have predicted such a thing), the first year of a possible three-year deal.

Myers just wasn't as effective in 2011 - when he was making $8m - as opposed to 2010, when he was making $3.1m. That's not good economics. We can debate all day about how Wade should have traded Myers at the 2010 trade deadline, but he didn't, and now the Astros have the 3rd-most expensive closer in basbeall.

But if Jeff Luhnow wants to create an atmosphere of winning, then the bullpen had to be addressed. The fact is, the Astros lost 22 games in 2011 when they were either ahead or tied going into the 8th inning. If the Astros hold on to half of those leads, their record is 67-95. Not fun, by any means, but not considered one of the worst teams of all time.

Maybe his velocity will return. Mitch Williams said on Clubhouse Confidential that Myers wasn't all that smart, and maybe a reliever role was more suited for Myers than starting, and that Myers preferred to come out of the bullpen. That may all be well and good, but we're also looking at a player's velocity from five years ago as a guide for what his fastball can do. And I'm a touch uncomfortable with that.

Also, freeing up a rotation spot is a good idea for the Astros to see what they have in their young arms. Reportedly. But McTaggart said yesterday that the move "all but guarantees" a spot for Livan Hernandez. Should that be the course of action, the Astros traded 200+IP from a 30-year old pitcher for 200+IP from a 37-year old pitcher.

In 2011, Myers threw 216IP at an 85 ERA+. Livan Hernandez threw 175.1IP at an 87 ERA+_with a higher WHIP (1.40 for Livan, 1.31 for Myers). I'm struggling to see how this is an upgrade. If Myers' spot would be used for seeing what Lyles/Harrell/Sosa/Weiland could do (and yes, that could still happen), it would be a different matter altogether - for me, anyway, humble pants-less basement-dwelling momma's boy blogger.

And what of his trade value? Myers will get $11m this season, and his contract has been reworked to where his $10m vesting option for 2013 can be reached. Should Myers be traded on July 31, that would be before the Astros' 105th game of the season (there's a brutal stretch of 20 games in 20 days immediately following the All Star Game), where - if we break down $11m into 162 games - he would be owed about $3.9m for the rest of the season. Depending on whether or not his option vests, receiving teams would be inheriting that ~$3.9m plus the $10m option, should it vest, or the $3m buyout. That's an awful lot of scratch for a reliever, especially one who had not previously relieved for five years. The Astros would have to eat a lot of the contract, regardless of his role, anyway, so it's a question of whether a team would be willing to pay half ($7m-ish) for whatever Myers does in the first half, and then projects over the next season and a half.

Ultimately, it's a matter of whether or not Myers can do the job. And whether or not his rotation replacement can, as well. That remains to be seen. I don't hate the idea. But I don't love it, either.

Former FO member sues Astros

Mark Berman is reporting that Charlie Norton, former director of baseball research/pro scouting coordinator, is suing the Astros for breach of contract/wrongful termination.

According to the lawsuit, during a meeting on Dec. 16, 2011 that included Norton, Luhnow told those who were there, "everyone here and around are signed through next year and can have comfort that they have a job for a year." The lawsuit also states Luhnow made similiar comments on Jan. 3, 2012.

Berman:
Nine days later the Astros fired Norton and according to the lawsuit the reason given was "not for cause, but as set forth in its termination letter, due to an elimination of your position as the club's director, baseball research and analysis."

Norton's attorney:
"It's our contention that they did not have the ability to terminate Charlie for restructuring reasons for which they ultimately did terminate him."

On Brett Myers - Sunk costs and player development - An exercise in rambling

My first impression is that I don't like this move. Everything being equal, a pitcher that can give you 200 innings is much more valuable than one who can give you 60 innings.

But everything may not be equal. Myers' pitched better out of the pen in 2007 than he has at any other time.

So, even if he pitches as well as Myers did that one year in Philly, what business does Houston have paying $11M for a relief pitcher? In an ideal situation I'd like to think GM Jeff Luhnow would know better. But this isn't an ideal situation. After all, it's not like he signed Myers this off-season for $11M to be our closer. So once we accept the fact that Myers' money is a sunk cost, one that Luhnow has zero control over, it may put this decision in a better light.

The money's going to be paid regardless, so where is he of most help on the field  in 2012? Or maybe we should ask are there other pitchers we'd like to see in the starter role instead of Myers? For the long-term success of the franchise are we better off having an extra rotation spot for (hopefully) a young pitcher? And what effect does having a potentially stable bullpen that's not blowing every other lead it inherits have on a developing rotation?

Now, if we move Myers to the 'pen just to see Zach Duke turn in 120 innings of 4.80 ERA "pitching" then this decision just seems silly.

FanGraphs' response

Eno Sarris has a post up at FanGraphs about Myers' move, and he brings up a lot of the financial points we brought up earlier today.

Your close:
Long term, it will be more important for the Astros to sort out their starting rotation than their bullpen. In a strange twist, that’s why it makes sense to move a present-tense resource in Myers to the bullpen — because doing so will help them figure out what they have among their bevy of mediocre pitching prospects. If one of them steps to the fore and proves he’s a Major League starter this year, the team will have gotten what they wanted from moving Myers to the pen.

Myers moving to closer

Well, uh, ahem, I don't even

Okay, so the news out of Astros camp this morning is that Brett Myers is moving from the rotation to the closer spot.

I don't understand. Myers threw 216IP in 2011, tied for 17th-most in all of baseball, and now the Astros are going to cut his innings by 30-40% (I meant, "to," instead of "by") of that total. And with Lyon and Myers in the bullpen, that's $16m+ for the 8th-9th innings.

The idea was Jeff Luhnow's, says Alyson Footer:
Jeff Luhnow first approached Mills with the idea for Myers to close. Mills thought about it and agreed. Then they brought it to Myers.

Expanded quote from Luhnow:
"From my standpoint, we have some depth in the rotation between Duke, Livan, Happ, Sosa and Harrell and all the young guys. We feel like we're in pretty good shape there and have some choices. We felt like we were a little exposed in the bullpen, and having a guy who's been successful in that role and who's got the mentality and stuff to do well takes pressure of Brandon Lyon coming off an injury and doesn't put pressure on young kids like David Carpenter and Wilton Lopez."

Let's try to figure this out:

(1) The Astros have more rotation arms than they do bullpen arms. The majority of the arms the Astros have vying for spots are gunning for rotation spots, not necessarily a bullpen job. With Lyles, Livan Hernandez, Zach Duke, et al, the Astros needed someone reliable at the back end of the bullpen, and that apparently didn't include Brandon Lyon or David Carpenter. Your rotation is currently Wandy, Norris, Happ, and Lyles/Livan/Weiland/Sosa/Harrell/Duke. It simply opens up a spot for a *more effective* starter.

(2) Myers had better "stuff" as a reliever. Zachary Levine pointed out that FanGraphs had Myers' fastball velocity at 88.4mph in 2011, down from 92.1mph in 2007 when he came out of the bullpen.

(3) If there's one thing that's clear from this, it's that (as John Royal pointed out) the one GM in the world who thought Myers was worth $10m+ was Ed Wade. Financial breakdown of MLB's "Top 20" closers:

Mariano Rivera: $15m
Jonathan Papelbon: $11.0058m (not kidding)
Brett Myers: $11m
Jose Valverde: $9m
Brian Wilson: $8.5m
Carlos Marmol: $7m
Heath Bell: $6m
Leo Nunez*: $6m
Joakim Soria: $6m
Brandon League: $5m
J.J. Putz: $4.5m
Francisco Cordero: $4.5m
Chris Perez: $4.5m
Joel Hanrahan: $4.1m
Kyle Farnsworth: $3.3m
Sergio Santos: $1m
Neftali Feliz: $451K (pre-arb)
John Axford: $443K (pre-arb)
Craig Kimbrel: $419K (pre-arb)
Drew Storen: $418K (pre-arb)
Jordan Walden: $414K (pre-arb)

* - or whatever his name is

Yes, Brett Myers will be the 3rd-highest paid closer in all of baseball in 2012, after throwing 439.2IP over the last two seasons.

Boston writer brings Bagwell into the Braun argument

Tony Massarotti has a post up today in which he addresses Ryan Braun, and how it sure as hell isn't the media's fault for the furor and elbow-nudging going on about whether Braun did or didn't. And who does he bring as a witness? Jeff Bagwell.

Along with you stands someone like Jeff Bagwell, whose numbers (if clean) certainly qualify him for Hall-of-Fame induction. The problem is that we just don't know yet. And while Bagwell's approval rating increased in the most recent election (to 56 percent) from the previous year (41.7 percent), he is still considerably short of induction because the behavior of his peers made his accomplishments difficult to believe.

He can blame the same people you can. And to the best our knowledge, he was never even accused of having failed a drug test.

Is any of this fair? No, no, no. A million times no. If innocent, Bagwell is every bit the victim you are. Many of us are willing to admit that. But we are not the ones who are treating you or Bagwell unfairly, Ryan. We are merely making decisions based on the behavior of you and your peers. In 2001, at age 36, Bonds hit 73 home runs in 476 at-bats, an average of one every 6.5 at-bats. He made a mockery of the game. Assuming you are truly clean, you should know how absurd that is given that you have never hit more than 37 home runs in any season.

Unfortunately, that does not prove your innocence. In fact, it only increases the likelihood of your guilt.

America - where everybody's guilty, but nobody is to blame! Groupguilt fever - Catch it!

Lyon feels much better heading into his 3rd season

Greg Lucas checks in with a post about The Forgotten Closer, Brandon Lyon:

"Last couple of off-seasons I felt pretty bad going into the off-season. I knew I needed to rest a while. It's just hard taking that time off and being able to come back and get back in the swing of things. This (off-season) felt different to me, felt a lot better. I'm just working to stay healthy this year."

Death In Center Field!

It's a fight to the death in Center Field, as Brian Bogusevic will join Jordan Schafer, Jason Bourgeois, and J.B. Shuck in getting some CF reps.

Meat Wagon Updates

Here's your Monday morning Meat Wagon update:

Sergio Escalona threw a bullpen, instead of throwing to hitters.
Jimmy Paredes has inflammation in his left wrist
Angel Sanchez has back problems.

Monday Morning Sausage Links

Here's what you need to know from over the weekend:

Brad Mills' interview with the Visalia Times-Delta:
"We're not there yet. This organization isn't in that spot yet. We're going through a process of getting better and refurbishing our ball club and helping out our major league team. But, we're not there right now. That's not a bad thing. It's really a good thing."

Jim Crane:
“If you’ve got everybody understanding what you’re trying to do and how you want to run things, they’ll either get in line or they won’t be on the team. That’s the way we’re going to run it here. I think that message was loud and clear. There will be consistency and unity — we want the players supporting the coaches and the coaches supporting the players — and we’ll stay very focused on that.”

Carlos Lee:
“I’ll tell you what, I want to stay healthy and go out there and do my best. I can’t put any pressure. I don’t even know if I’m going to keep playing or not, so I’m just going to go out there and do my job and help the team that I’m on right now to win as many games as we can.”

The Astros are leaning towards a uni change next year, Chris Johnson has been trying out some first base, and Brad Mills looks at last year's record as "a big stick sitting in your rear end."

This is a joke, yes?

First: I have read this Charleston Post & Courier column six times trying to determine any sly wink-wink undertones that establishes the writer's tongue is planted firmly in the aforementioned's cheek. I don't believe it's sarcasm:

America's children are our future.

Too bad they're menaced by insidious images from our sporting past -- and present.

At least they will no longer be subjected to the jarring specter of a gun on the "throwback" jerseys occasionally worn by the Houston Astros.

The National League expansion team was known as the Houston Colt .45s from 1962-64, sporting uniforms with the word "Colts" above a drawing of the fearsome firearm that helped tame the West. Way back then, grown-up folks lacked this era's enlightened sensitivities about the dangers of exposing young folks to such violent visuals.

And so on. He goes on to explain that not all Irish want to fight, and laments the trivialization of cock-fighting in reference to the South Carolina Gamecocks, and a number of other sports-teams logos and nicknames that could send the message that Clemson and their "zany antics trivialize the plight of an awesome species apparently bound toward extinction due to mankind's species-centric disregard for nature's wonders."

(I was half-waiting to see if the "Astros" name is offensive because it hearkens back to a day when we engaged those dirty pig Commies in a race to leave the perfectly good atmosphere God had created just for us to live and breathe in). Just to keep my eyes from liquefying, I'm going to assume it's sarcasm. Because if it's not tongue-in-cheek, the "subliminal signals your kids receive when they watch sports" are much less of a threat than being subjected to this level of gravitas.

Drayton didn't want Jeter

Yeah, we're back to this for now - because otherwise we'd be talking about Ryan Braun, and I just don't want to do that.

Phil Rogers had a little note this morning about the 1992 draft, and that Phil Nevin pick:

According to the guy that we spoke to, the Houston Astros were poised to select Jeter with the first overall pick in the 1992 draft. Their area scouts in Michigan had been all over him for years and scouting director Dan O'Brien Jr. was sure that the high school shortstop was the best player in the country.

Unfortunately for them , Drayton McLane wanted them to take a college player who could get to the Astrodome quickly. And because McLane had just purchased the team from John McMullen, his word was the only one that counted.

How did the four teams behind the Astros whiff on Jeter? Because the Yankees called his parents and said they'd take him with the #6 pick. So when the Indians, Expos, Orioles, and Reds called Jeter's family they said that he was intent on going to the University of Michigan. And then the Yankees called.

Updates on Wandy, Escalona

Zachary Levine has your morning update on the HurtStros:

Wandy's alright, but will throw his next bullpen tomorrow.
Escalona is skipping his next bullpen after hyperextending his elbow swinging a bat - which makes perfect sense for a reliever.

Mills hasn't picked a closer, but why would he?

Brian McTaggart's new post talks about what in the world Brad Mills is going to do about the closer spot. It could be Lyon. It could be Carpenter. It won't be Mark Melancon. What is a manager to do!?

How about let Spring Training play out? There's no point anointing a closer at the end of February.

Astros had the 29th-best off-season, according to Jon Heyman

Despite the Angels getting a first baseman they "don't really need" (and isn't that the American dream, after all?), Jon Heyman says they had the best off-season OF ALL!

More appropriate for our purposes, the Astros were ranked 29th, only better than the Mets. Why so low?

They took a flyer on the oft-injured Fernando Martinez but after failing to unload Wandy Rodriguez, Carlos Lee or Brett Myers, they basically return the same team. Which is not necessarily good news when you lost 106 games.

So, to recap, the Angels had a great off-season because they got a player they didn't technically need (yes, I know, if you can add Albert Pujols, you should do it). The Astros didn't dump their three highest-paid players, and took a chance on a young outfielder who could turn into something, didn't add unnecessary payroll, continued looking beyond 2012, and sucked the high hard one.

Got it.

Wandy tweaks his back

Wandy must have been trying muscle it up to 93mph, "felt a little tightness" in his back this morning, but does not expect it to be serious.

Paging Carlos Lee

According to Zachary Levine, every possible combination of the starting lineup is in camp, with one notable exception. And I'll give you three guesses who it is, and your second two guesses don't count.

Qs, As with Mark Appel

Appel pitches against Vanderbilt on February 17, 2012.
(Photo by Matthew C. Ersted / stanfordphoto.com)

This afternoon Astros County had the opportunity to talk to Houston native and Stanford ace Mark Appel - who just happens to be a prospective #1 overall pick in the 2012 June Draft. By virtue of Houston's 106 losses in 2011, there's a chance Appel could be returning to Houston. Here's the transcription:

AC: First off, I appreciate you taking the time to do this.

MA: Absolutely, not a problem.

AC: With the arrival of pitchers and catchers and the start of the baseball season, it's officially Spring. Over the past weekend, in the season opener, you held Vanderbilt to one run on two hits over seven innings - which, I'll just tell you right now, I live in Nashville; opening weekend against Stanford caused Vanderbilt and Nashville sports radio great weeping and gnashing of teeth. How does it feel to be playing baseball again?

MA: It feels great. It obviously feels a lot better that we were winning some games, and we're just glad to be playing some guys in other jerseys. All these scrimmages have prepared us for the season, and now we're glad to be playing some other guys - fortunately for our pitching staff we don't have to be facing our own hitters every week now...

AC: (short, stilted laugh)

MA: ...and we get to face some other guys now.

AC: (awkward, hesitating pause) What are your expectations, both for yourself and for Stanford in 2012?

MA: Personally, I don't really have any expectations for myself, and that's just more of a mental thing. If I play good or if I play bad, I want to have a steady mindset and prepare for the next time out, no matter what the results are. I just want to focus on each and every pitch, the best one I can, and the results will take care of themselves. For the team, I wouldn't put it past us to, hopefully, win the Pac-12, and potentially a National Championship. I think we have the guys to do it. Our hitters have proven that they can put up some runs and now it's time for our pitching staff to prove that we can limit some offenses to one or two runs per game.

AC: You spent the first 12 years of your life in Houston, your uncle is the Dean of the Architecture school at Rice, and then moved with your family to the Bay Area. Do you go back to Houston often, and what does Houston mean to you?

MA: Oh, it means a lot. I still tell all my friends that I'm from Houston, even though I've lived in California for eight years now. But I just really enjoyed living in Houston when I did, and that's not to say I haven't enjoyed California - but it has a special place in my heart, with a lot of family and a lot of childhood memories, just so many great things that I remember about Houston. Like you said, my uncle is the Dean at the Architecture school at Rice, and my family has been a Houston family for as long as I can remember - both my parents are from the Houston area, as well as my grandparents. As long as I can remember it's been Houston, and moving to California was kind of a big change for us. But it definitely holds a special place in my heart.

AC: It was in doing some reading and preparing for this interview that it was in high school there in California where you found God. Some people might find that strange, because if there’s one thing you can get a lot of in the South (and in Houston, specifically), it’s religion. What changed?

MA: I wouldn't say that I "found God" in California -

AC: (hangs head in shame)

MA: - I became a believer at a young age when I was 10 years old back in Houston. I was getting baptized and my pastor at my church - I went to Bethel Presbyterian over by Chimney Rock - asked if I knew what it meant to be a Christian, and I kind of knew all the little things. I knew who Jesus was, and all this stuff, but I never really understood what it meant to be a Christian and actually live that lifestyle. I guess God became real to me when I moved to California because that was when I first experienced adversity and different tests and temptations in my faith. I went to Second Baptist in Houston, this small, private, Christian school - I never really heard anything other than, "what it meant to be a Christian, and what the Bible said." But once I moved to California and went to public school, I started hearing how guys would talk about girls, a lot of different things that I never really understood. Going through those doubts and really tough questions about my faith was what really made my relationship with Christ real to me.

AC: Stanford has had quite a bit of success in the draft, for a long time, but most recently, as well. The Astros have been comfortable drafting Stanford guys - from Jason Castro in 2008, Brandt Walker in 2009, Kellen Kiilsgaard in 2010, etc. How do your coaches prepare you for the draft?

MA: They don't really prepare me any differently from the way they prepare anybody else. Their focus is on the season, and on winning games, and it's also on trying to maximize the talents of all our players because by maximizing our talents, we're going to have better chances of winning some games, and then the draft will come when it comes. Coach (Mark) Marquess does a really good job of keeping all the players focused on the season. He is kind of a buffer for scouts - obviously scouts will want to talk to some of the players on the team this year. Coach Marquess does a great job at really making sure that the scouts are still satisfied by allowing meetings to happen, but also that the players will still be focused on the season, because that's the most important thing right now. And when the draft comes, we can start worrying about that a little bit later.

AC: You've sort of alluded to my next question - there's a lot about the draft you can't control. At what point did the possibility of being the #1 pick, and the number one pick being Houston's, when did that sink in, and how do you feel about it?

MA: Ever since people started putting out mock drafts or projections, and I saw my name next to Houston, it was pretty cool. Maybe even having the opportunity of going back home and play for the team that I grew up watching play, it's just cool to think about. God is just too good for something like that to happen. It's a really cool opportunity and obviously I can't control whether the Astros take me, all I can control is how I play on the field. If the Astros decide to pick somebody else, that would be fine with me, I understand it's a business, but it's also a dream of mine to be able to play baseball in the Major Leagues at some point.

AC: Last question - I'm sure that the question you get asked most often is about you and Andrew Luck. I'm not going to ask you about that because I'm not much on what they call "football." Do you get asked about yours and Andrew Luck's draft projections most often?

MA: I guess that is a fairly common question. Andrew is a great guy - also from Houston - so I guess we have that in common. Our families have some mutual friends, and I've met the Lucks once or twice because of that. So it's a cool thing to think about, but it's not really high on my priority list right now. I'm focusing on the season, preparing for Friday night against Texas, and try to go out there and take it one pitch at a time.

AC: That sounds great. Good luck this season, and hopefully we'll see you in Houston after the draft. Thanks a lot. Have a good one.

MA: Thank you. God bless.
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Big thanks to Mark Appel for taking time out of his day to answer these questions, and thanks to Stanford's Media Relations department for helping to make it happen. And follow Mark on Twitter.

Qs, As with Larry Dierker

Coming up on February 27, Larry Dierker will host the Reader Cup, a golf tournament to benefit Literacy Advance of Houston. Astros County had the opportunity to ask him some questions. So you better get out there and play some golf - or it will be obvious that you don't like reading, or people.

AC: 1998 was your 2nd full season as manager of the Astros, after going 84-78 (good enough to win the Division) in 1997. What were the most important lessons you learned, going from the 1997 season into 1998?

LD: The most important lesson was to be patient when things weren't going so well (although that seldom happened in 98. It happened a lot in 99) . And the other thing was that with our power/speed attack, bunting and using the hit-and-run were not as effective as just stealing when we could and slugging away.

AC: The amazing thing for me, looking at that 1997 team, is that only two players - Biggio (.916) and Bagwell (1.017) - had an OPS over .800. As you reflect on the 1997 team, what were you most excited about, leading into 1998?

LD: First of all, the pitching improved enough in 97 to allow us to win the division with only 84 wins. Most of our important pitchers were still in their prime or even approaching their prime at that time. I thought we would continue to pitch well, and I really got excited when we got Moises Alou and Carl Everett because I knew we would have a more potent offense.

AC: Heading into 1998, the pitching staff was undergoing a transition: Darryl Kile would head to Colorado via Free Agency, Jose Lima would be moving from the bullpen into the rotation. As a former pitcher, what were your thoughts on your pitching staff at the beginning of the season?

LD: I was worried about Lima. He was no Darryl Kile. But he didn't know it. He reminded me of something Mark Twain reportedly said, "All you need in life is ignorance and confidence and you will surely succeed." His stuff was mediocre but he wasn't afraid to throw strikes, which worked well in the Dome. It didn't work well at Enron, and once he lost the confidence, it didn't work anywhere.

AC: At the end of April, the Astros were 17-10 (still the most April wins in franchise history), but ended the month tied with the Brewers (16-9) for 1st, and a game ahead of the Cardinals. The team wouldn't relinquish its hold on 1st for the rest of the season. At what point did you know the 1998 team was special?

LD: I knew the team was special on opening day. But, I also knew that special teams sometimes don't fulfill their promise. Even before we got Randy Johnson near the end of July, I was pretty sure we would win the decision. With him, I thought we'd go all the way. Then came Kevin Brown. As they say, on any given day...

AC: The turning point of the season - and one of the most exciting days in Astros history - was July 31, 1998, when the Astros traded Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and John Halama to the Mariners for Randy Johnson. Were you aware that Hunsicker was going for Johnson, and what was the reaction in the clubhouse when word came down about the trade?

LD: Everyone was excited about getting Randy, but he was not having a great season in Seattle. We knew he would help us, but never dreamed he'd go 11-1.

AC: You won eight straight games from September 5-12, and then finished the season 6-7. What was the feeling in the clubhouse leading up to the postseason?

LD: Clinching early can be a problem. The veterans want and need rest, but they don't want to get rusty. Still, when they play with nothing on the line, it's not the same as when you're trying to clinch. Still, we were confident we would beat the Padres and, for that matter whomever we played in the NLCS. Randy hadn't lost a game, had only given up a few runs in all his starts in the Dome. The bench guys got to play a lot during the last two weeks and I think that helped their confidence too.

AC: In the post-season against the Padres, the Astros fell 3-1. Looking back, how do you feel about that 1998 team?

LD: The '98 team was the greatest Astros team ever in terms of total wins. But we weren't as well balanced as the '86 team. Our pitching wasn't quite as good and weren't as well balanced as that team offensively. We had both speed and power, but didn't have many left-handed hitters. We weren't very good at playing "little ball." and that's what you have to do sometimes against the league;s top pitchers, which are usually the ones you face in post season.

AC: On February 27 you'll host the Larry Dierker Golf Classic, benefiting Literacy Advance of Houston. Obviously you're very involved in charitable works around the city - what does Houston mean to you?

LD: I do a lot of charity work because I have the time. My favorite charity is Literacy Advance of Houston. It is an adult education agency and am a volunteer there. We have a diverse city and that is one of Houston's great attractions. But we are way too diverse at the bottom end of the literacy scale. Adult illiteracy is a problem everywhere, and an even bigger problem here. It is a contributing factor in joblessness, homelessness, broken families and crime. Every time we get a person educated, it opens up their world and makes our world better. More importantly, it also improves their kid's chances for success in school. So we not only enhance the lives of the people we teach, but also the lives of their children.

Check out Literacy Advance for more information about how you can sponsor, play, or support.

Now this is some good news

Zachary Levine's latest post lets everyone know that the Astros are "keeping an eye on" the next-biggest Cuban prospect, Jorge Soler.

Luhnow:
“I have seen him before,” Luhnow said, adding that he’s been in contact with Soler’s camp. “He’s still not at the point where he’s a free agent yet, but we’re keeping tabs on him.”

Of course, everyone is in on Soler, trying to out-A's the A's with their signing of Yoenis Cespedes. But at least the Astros are interested...

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects

Baseball America has released their top 100 prospects and there aren't really any surprises.  The Astros come in with Singleton at #34, Cosart at #50, and Springer at #59.

"Grab a cup, you're gonna need it"

If you had "Mike Kvasnicka" in the First Astros Player to Three Posts In the First Two Days of Spring Training pool, come to the window to collect your money. Zachary Levine says that moving behind the plate was Kvasnicka's idea.

Kvasnicka:
“I put in a lot of work and I didn’t shy away from any of the extra work at third base, but I just let them know at the end of the year that I didn’t feel quite natural back there. I was just wondering if they could give it a thought over the offseason. Then I got a call probably a couple months ago and they said ‘dust off your gear, grab a cup, you’re gonna need it.’”

"Grab a cup, you're gonna need it" should definitely be the slogan for the 2012 Astros.

Pepperdine rocking old-school Astros unis

Click here to see the new Pepperdine unis, which look quite familiar.

This reminds me of the Book of Opinions, in the Bible, in which it says "Thou shalt not covet another team's uni."

The Astros can spend $11,177,700 on their first ten picks rounds

Baseball America has a table up listing how much each team is allotted for the 2012 June draft.

The Astros are allowed to spend $11,177,700 on Rounds 1-10.

As BA explains:
Any team that exceeds its bonus pool by 0-5 percent must pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. The penalties escalate, with a 75 percent tax and the loss of a first-round pick for a 5-10 percent overage; a 100 percent tax and the loss of first- and second-rounders for a 10-15 percent overage; and a 100 percent tax and the loss of two first-rounders for an overage of 15 percent or more.

A Rundown of the Catchers

With Mike Kvasnicka moving back behind the plate, let's take a look at who's in the pipeline behind the plate in the organization, shall we?

Jason Castro (24 years old) - 2011: N/A, Injuries
Chris Snyder (31) - .271/.376/.396 in 119 PAs for Pittsburgh
Humberto Quintero (32) - .240/.258/.317 in 272 PAs for Houston
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Carlos Corporan (28) - .188/.253/.253 in 173 PAs for Houston
Chris Wallace (23) - .271/.343/.507 in 411 PAs for Lexington/Corpus
Mike Kvasnicka (23) - .260/.328/.368 in 536 PAs for Lexington
Rene Garcia (21) - .242/.288/.303 in 326 PAs for Lancaster
Ben Heath (23) - .252/.310/.408 in 365 PAs for Lexington/Lancaster
Jordan Comadena (26) - .295/.389/.432 in 115 PAs for Lancaster
Roberto Pena (19) - .217/.266/.310 in 308 PAs for Lexington
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Miles Hamblin (23) - .264/.346/.398 in 229 PAs for Tri-City
Ryan McCurdy (24) - .320/.385/.379 in 119 PAs for Tri-City (and 1PA in Lexington)
Bubby Williams (22) - .206/.223/.397 in 139 PAs for Tri-City
Luis Alvarez (21) - .271/.353/.376 in 151 PAs for Greeneville
Ernesto Genoves (20) - .280/.375/.464 in 144 PAs for Greeneville
Cristian Moronta (22) - .242/.242/.303 in 33 PAs for Greeneville

That's about as far as we need to go right now. If I were to eyeball the rankings of the Top 5 catchers (after we get through Castro, Snyder, and Quintero), it would probably be as follows:

1. Chris Wallace
2. Ben Heath
3. Mike Kvasnicka
4. Mikes Hamblin
5. Ryan McCurdy

What say you?

Profile on Chris Johnson

Culture Map had a profile on Maybe 3B Chris Johnson as he prepared to leave for Spring Training, and that dude had some interesting things to say.

What happened in 2011 for Johnson?
“Last year was tough. I came into the season thinking I was the shit. I had to get out of my own way. Pitchers and teams started looking at me and they had a game plan of how to handle me at the plate."

And on realism replacing optimism for 2012:
“We’re a young team. There’s no denying that. As a team we need to stay away from super lofty goals and keep improving. We’re headed in a really good direction — there’s really only one way to go."

Click the link for the full piece, it's a good one.

And here's where I would disagree with J.A. Happ

Zachary Levine's Camp-opening story has a little quote from J.A. Happ, who is obviously ready to put 2011 behind him:

"We’re anxious to put last year behind us and start on a new foot. I think everyone knows we’re better than the way we ended up last year."

I'm not so sure that's right. The Astros were bad, historically bad. They finished in the bottom four in the NL in: runs scored, homers, walks, SLG, OPS. And on the pitching side? ERA, complete games, saves, hits allowed, runs allowed, earned runs allowed, and walks allowed.

So nope, I'm pretty sure the Astros were appropriately rated - especially on a Major-League level, in 2011.

Kvasnicka back to catcher

We're going to save you all the minutiae of the Astros' opening of Spring Training ("Everyone looks good." "Here's someone walking around." "Look at this f-ing hipster center fielder." Et cetera.) but we do already have an important note on the minor-league side:

Mike Kvasnicka has been moved back to catcher.

Kvasnicka was a catcher at the University of Minnesota, but the Astros drafted him as a 3B, and in 141 games at 3B between Tri-City and Lexington, Kvasnicka had an .895 Fld% while hitting .251/.320/.357. Obviously this slash line is more suited for catching things the pitcher throws, rather than what gets smashed down the left field line.

So the Astros have moved him back behind the plate.