Thursday Morning Hot Links

Okay, so we now know who the Astros will welcome to Houston on Saturday at a time to be determined: The Minnesota Correas. Minnesota took the first two games from Toronto to win this ridiculously-short, idea-which-should-immediately-be-abandoned idea of a "postseason series."

Anything can happen in a three-game series (see: A's, Oakland; Royals, Kansas City) but the Twins held the Blue Jays - who had the 5th-highest AVG, 4th-highest OBP, and 6th-highest OPS in the AL to one single, solitary run...but only scored five runs themselves, so who knows. 

Games 1&2 will be in Houston on Saturday and Sunday

Games 3&4 will be in Minneapolis on Tuesday and Wednesday

Game 5 will be in Houston on Friday. 

The Twins won their first postseason series since beating Oakland in the 2002 ALDS before dropping in five games to the eventual World Series winners Anaheim Angels in the ALCS. Prior to this series, the Twins had lost 18 straight postseason games. In fact, from 2003-2023 the Twins went 4-21 in the postseason. Carlos Correa has won 47 postseason games from 2015-2023. 

Correa:

This is a young, talented group that really wants it. I tell everybody this reminds me a lot of the '15 Astros, when the young talent came up, matched with the veterans that were there already and then they started going off. That's how I feel about this organization or the squad that we have right now. 

In six games against the 2023 Astros, the Twins went 4-2, outscoring Houston 29-25. 

The first time the Twins faced Houston was in Minneapolis from April 7-9. Altuve was injured. Verlander wasn't even a thought. 

April 7: 3-2 Twins in 10 innings. It was 47 degrees at first pitch. Jose Urquidy got the start on the mound, David Hensley started the game at 1B. Ryne Stanek blew the save after Houston took a 2-1 lead in the top of the 10th. 

April 8: 9-6 Twins. Minnesota put up a 4-spot in the 2nd and 8th innings. Yordan hit a grand slam, Jeremy Pena hit 10% of his season home runs. Luis Garcia struggled, Ronel Blanco allowed four hits and two walks in the 8th. 

April 9: 5-1 Astros. Hunter Brown threw 7IP, 2H/0ER. Chas McCormick had 4RBI. 

The second time the Astros and Twins rumbled was Memorial Day Weekend, May 29-31. The series opener was Altuve's 8th game of the 2023 season. 

May 29: 7-5 Twins in 10 innings. Houston had a 5-4 lead going into the top of the 9th, thanks mainly to Altuve's 7th Inning Grand Slam. J.P. France was okay. Abreu and Pressly blew it in the 9th and 10th. 

May 30: 5-1 Astros. Brandon Bielak threw 5.1 solid innings. Bregman and McCormick homered. 

May 31: 8-2 Twins. Altuve did not play. Jake Meyers and Yainer Diaz homered (it was just Diaz's 2nd homer of the season). Hunter Brown and Parker Mushinski allowed 7ER in the first six innings. 

Not much to examine. Altuve didn't play in three of the games. Verlander hadn't shown up yet. Urquidy, Brown, France, and Bielak likely won't get a start in the postseason. Garcia is out until next season. That's all six starters in the season series. 

*Here's Twins fans chanting "We want Houston" as they leave the stadium.

*Old Friend Alert (Twins who used to be with the Astros): Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, Christian Vazquez, Hank Conger (1B Coach), Kevin Golstein (Special Assistant to the GM, Player Personnel).

*FanGraphs already has it Houston 56.8 - 43.2 Minnesota. And Six Flags 54.8 - 45.2 Baltimore. Of course, FanGraphs thought Tampa and Toronto to win the Wild Card rounds. 17 of ESPN's MLB Experts picked Toronto over Minnesota. 22 of the 27 picked Tampa over Six Flags. FanGraphs' Playoff Odds missed three of the four Wild Card series, only getting Philadelphia/Miami correct. 

*ESPN: What to know about the eight remaining playoff teams.

*The Astros are 27-11 at Minute Maid Park in the postseason since 2015 (not including 2020 but, sadly, including the 2019 World Series). 

*The most important player to the Astros' October? Cristian Javier. Pitching Coach Josh Miller:

I've said to numerous people the last couple of months he's been close. He's shown glimpses of the 2022 version of himself. It just hasn't been put together. He certainly finished the season strong. He seems to have gotten his fastball shape back in line which is what we've been searching for all year, and that bodes well going into a postseason.

*McTaggart: Can the Astros figure out their home-field blues?

*There's a good shot that the Astros at least have a late-afternoon/evening slot on Saturday, as Game 1 of the Rangers/Orioles series will start at 1pm thanks to a Billy Joel concert at Camden Yards that night. 

*A.J. Blubaugh is the Astros' sleeper prospect in the Arizona Fall League.

*What's it like to be recruited by Deion Sanders?

*A Musical Selection:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

Let's pick this Blog thing back up, huh?

*Last week I wrote in the Chronicle about how the Astros could possibly hold on to both George Springer and Carlos Correa. One step was to non-tender Roberto Osuna, which happened on Thursday, and Osuna will depart with a complicated legacy.

On one hand, Osuna was reportedly nothing but a model teammate and citizen in his time as an Astro. He did not ask to be traded to Houston. However, the Astros did trade for Roberto Osuna, knowing that his value was depressed due to a 75-game suspension for domestic violence. In one trade, the Astros burned up a lot of goodwill, and it directly led to the Brandon Taubman "I'm so f***ing glad we got Osuna" outburst which, when combined with the Mike Fiers story, was the impetus for the hammer absolutely being brought down on the organization. He posted a 2.45 ERA / 0.87 WHIP and saved 51 games in 2+ seasons with the Astros. His ERA is the 10th-lowest in franchise history among relievers who threw at least 90IP. I'm not sad he's gone.

*George Springer is #2 on FanGraphs' Top 50 Free Agents list. While I do think the Astros will make a competitive run at Springer, I still remain unconvinced that he doesn't want to be closer to home (Connecticut). I'm mentally preparing myself for Springer hitting bombs over the Green Monster for the next six years, which means that the Astros better have Correa's agent on the phone figuring out a long-term extension. Michael Brantley is 12th. 

*The Astros cleared five spots on their 40-Man Roster, and here are Jake Kaplan's intriguing picks to protect from the Rule 5 Draft.

*AJ Hinch was such a toxic personality in the wake of the sign-stealing scheme that the Detroit Tigers waited an entire 30 minutes after 2020 World Series Game 6 ended to give him a call, and he has signed a multi-year deal to manage the Tigers. The Astros will play the Tigers at Minute Maid Park - presuming the world hasn't gone all the way to hell by then - from April 12-14, 2021.

And in another show of just How Seriously MLB is Taking The Punishments Of Those Involved, the Red Sox have reached out to Alex Cora about their managerial vacancy.

The How We Got Here post has been updated.

*The Astros cut some front office staff, which included Friend of Astros County Kevin Goldstein, and I'm very Mad about it. Jiminy Clicket isn't off to a great start, with me.

*Pocket: Blood-curdling stories of hauntings, monsters, and real-life horrors.

*Vox: Who the Electoral College really benefits.

*McSweeney's: An open letter to the woman who was questioned by a police officer for merely sitting in her car in a Target parking lot after midnight taking a break from her family.

*A Musical Selection:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

Short one this morning.

*Just about the only Astros news of the day was another report from The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich (again, get used to this) in which the headline reads: Astros executive asked scouts for help stealing signs and suggested using cameras, email shows.

That's a damning headline! I wonder what the article says!

Well, the email is from August 2017. The sender and recipients are unidentified. The email:

One thing in specific we are looking for is picking up signs coming out of the dugout. What we are looking for is how much we can see, how we would log things, if we need cameras/binoculars, etc. So go to game, see what you can (or can't) do and report back your findings.

Well that doesn't seem as bad, if you're willing to read past the headline. The unnamed executive sent an email asking if they could pick up signs coming out of the dugout whether through cameras (not okay) or binoculars (Extreme Grey Area). The "see what you can (or can't) do" portion is the kicker for me. Obviously I'm on record as being Against Cheating. But if you're wondering how to pick up signs and the sender says "see what you can (or can't) do" that's hardly a directive to commit Baseball Fraud.

Scouts discussed sign stealing with the executive outside of email as well, on phone calls and in a group Slack channel. Multiple Astros scouts said they were appalled by the possibility they would be asked to use a camera - and said that some scouts indeed voiced as much to management...

..."Nobody wanted to do that, and take a chance of getting caught and ruining their reputation, not only as a scout but then ever further damage what the Astros had going," one person directly involved in the conversations said...

...A longtime scout outside of the Astros organization said that, across the sport, asking advance scouts to attempt to track signs is not uncommon. A general manager confirmed the same. But the potential use of a camera stood out to both.

Keith Law tweeted that the email was "a third-rate burglary attempt."

ESPN's Jeff Passan has the story, as well, if you want the unpaywalled version. He notes that the email was sent by Kevin Goldstein, special assistant to GM Jeff Luhnow. Passan:

The 2017 plans relayed by Goldstein involved a pro scouting department that has since been gutted, with the Astros' analytics-scouting balance since then tilting to the side of analytics "99 to 1," according to a person familiar with the team's resources. Much of the Astros' scouting work today, sources said, involves cameras and video.

The New York Post's Ken Davidoff looks for comparisons to the Patriots and their many scandals as Rob Manfred figures out what to do with the Astros. Davidoff:

Most obviously, Houston's manager A.J. Hinch and president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow should be suspended for lengthy periods - half a season, at least - if a preponderance of evidence suggests that they knew what was going down.

SNY's Andy Martino: What MLB needs to learn, and how it could still get Carlos Beltran suspended.

I guess the point of articles like this is to further build the case against the Astros and the front office regarding a "culture" of cheating. It's going to be a long offseason.

*ESPN has an AL West Offseason Preview for your pleasure. Houston's offseason preview focuses on payroll, which is projected to be almost $229m - or about $21m over the luxury tax - for 2020, and that's before you get into Gerrit Cole discussions.

*RIP Vera Clemente.

*Restaurant/Food Critic Adam Platt wrote about what it's like to be targeted by a chef.

*Would 19 hours and 16 minutes on a plane make you crazy?

*Barry Petchesky wrote in the NY Times about not sticking to sports.

*A Musical Selection:

Saturday Morning Hot Links

Hope y'all are safe this morning, and in the mornings to come. Keep Space City Weather bookmarked for non-hysterical analysis of Harvey. If you're on Twitter, I put together a list of some necessary follows for the next week. The Houston Chronicle took down its paywall during the hurricane.

*The Astros beat the Angels 2-1 in Anaheim last night, in a game of which I did not watch a minute. I instead elected to watch the Weather Channel and see if Jim Cantore would do a live shot with a mouth full of teeth he had filed down into jagged, bloody points, thirsty for blood and satiating his desire for human flesh. McHugh, Devenski, Musgrove and Giles shut the Angels down and the offense did just enough to squeak out a win. The Astros are 78-50 and the Red Sox lost, as well. The lead is now 12.5 games over Seattle and five games over Boston. There are 34 games remaining.

*Last night's win was Houston's 41st road win, guaranteeing a winning road record in a season for the  second season in a row. Related: I had no idea the Astros had a winning road record last year. The Astros have consecutive winning records on the road for the first time since 1998-1999. Their next road win will be the most in an Astros season since 2004 (44-37). So the Astros are 82-61 in their last 143 road games just a few years removed from winning 72 road games from 2011-2013.

The franchise record for road wins in a season is 49, set by the 2001 Astros who most definitely did not share the NL Central title with the Cheatin-Ass Cardinals.

*The Astros are 18-21 since the All-Star Break, outscoring their opponents 187-184. It's the 27th time the Astros have been held to two or fewer runs - they're now 6-21 in those games.

*Key moment in the game was Devenski loading the bases with two outs for Mike Trout, and then getting him to pop up to end the inning. Hinch:
That's what people pay to see is that type of matchup. One of our best relievers, an All-Star, against one of the best players in the game. A 3-2 count and nowhere to put him. To be able to beat Trout when everybody in the ballpark knew he had to throw a strike - [what] a big moment, a great moment for everybody.

*Collin McHugh threw 6IP, 3H/1ER, 8K:2BB, lowering his ERA to 3.63. In three starts since getting lit up at Chicago, McHugh has thrown 17.2IP, 15H/3ER, 17K:4BB. McHugh:
Any time you can beat a division opponent, it's big. We have a really good division [Ed. note: awaiting confirmation on whether McHugh gave the hand-wank motion while he said this] We've got five quality teams, and four of us are in the playoff hunt. So, you know, every game down the stretch, especially against a division opponent, is going to be a playoff game essentially. 

Talking to Jake Kaplan, McHugh:
I don't have the luxury of having a full season behind me to kind of find my groove and get into the swing of things. Every start down the stretch for me is a practice in intensity to be ready to pitch in the playoffs, to be able to pitch in October. 

*The Astros have been held to three runs or less in six of their last eight games. Parker Bridwell, who was acquired by the Angels from Baltimore for a PTBNL in April, took his first loss since June 30.

*The Astros got eight hits on the night, six of them coming out of the top third of the lineup.
Springer, Bregman, Reddick: 6x12
Bottom two-thirds of the lineup: 2x23

But one of them was J.D. Davis' 2nd career home run, tying the game in the 3rd.

*In 141 ABs since the All-Star Break, Bregman is hitting .348/.413/.645 with 17K:15BB.

*Jose Altuve was out of the lineup with a sore neck. Hinch:
He's fine. He's still having a little bit of symptoms with his neck. He's not going to play until we feel like he is not going to irritate it anymore. Given the travel we had yesterday, I didn't really expect him to play coming into the ballpark. 

Evan Gattis was activated as the Astros played some transaction games, putting Max Stassi on the 10-Day DL with "hand inflammation" after apparently tearing a blister on his palm on Wednesday.

*Bench coach Alex Cora was ejected after ten pitches because umpire Laz Diaz apparently refused to check the ball for a scuff mark.

*Lance McCullers took the L last night in his 1st rehab start for Fresno. He threw 3IP, 3H/3ER, 1K:5BB (one IBB), WP, HBP. He threw 33 of his 59 pitches for strikes. Tony Sipp threw a perfect inning while Will Harris allowed 2H/2ER, 1K:1BB in 1IP. Carlos Correa got the night off. A.J. Reed hit his 29th and 30th home runs of the season. He has 10 games to hit four more home runs in order to break Fresno's single-season home run record.

*The restructuring of the front office/scouting department continued yesterday, as Quinton McCracken will not return to the Astros in 2019, while Mike Elias and Kevin Goldstein were promoted. No word on Jon Heyman's hand-wringing.

*Jose Quintana, for the Cubs since his NL debut: 39IP, 38H/23ER, 41K:17BB. 5.31 ERA/1.41 WHIP.

*Don't miss Richard Justice's story on Joe Musgrove.

*The Astros are keeping an eye on Hurricane Harvey. Their current plans are to fly to Houston from Anaheim on Sunday and have an off-day in Houston before starting a three-game series with Lower Carrollton. Hinch:
Honestly, our travel is the least of our concern. It's more dangerous for the people that are there.

Stay safe.

Qualifying Offers and Other Notes

*Patrick and I interviewed Astros Director of Pro Scouting Kevin Goldstein for Lima Time Time.

*Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, and Mike Trout are the three finalists for the AL MVP award. As McTaggart notes, Altuve is the first 2B to get to 100 runs, 200 hits, 40 doubles, 20 homers, 95 RBI, and 30 SB in a single season.
If I win it's going to be great, if not, I'm going to feel proud because I feel like I did what I had to do to help my team and I don't want to stop here. Like I said before and will say 100 times, I want to keep getting better. 

*McTaggart also notes that the Astros may have no choice but to overpay for Jason Castro, but could be major players in free agency.

*Predictably, the Astros did not extend the 1yr/$17.2m qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents: Colby Rasmus, Jason Castro, Luis Valbuena, or Doug Fister. It's worth noting that some potential free agent targets Edwin Encarnacion, Yoenis Cespedes, Mark Trumbo received Qualifying Offers from their respective teams. This would mean the Astros would lose their 1st Round pick in the 2017 draft should they sign one of these players. Catchers Wilson Ramos and Matt Wieters did not receive a QO.

*That said, the Blue Jays are reportedly making a push to re-sign Edwin Encarnacion.

*You can filter through MLBTR's free agent tracker.

*Francis Martes is using his time in the Arizona Fall League to work on his changeup, while Garrett Stubbs is trying to add some bulk to his frame, and Aaron Rowand - remember him? - guarantees that Ramon Laureano will be a major-leaguer.

*Carlos Gomez would like a five-year deal, please and thank you. Heyman:
Boras pointed out that Gomez, by virtue of his movement from Houston to Texas in-season, can not get a qualifying offer, which should aid him in free agency. The agent also credited the Rangers with helping him receive information that aided his vision, and led to a stark turnaround in performance. 

*Pitchers & Catchers report on February 14.

Monday Lunchtime Link Dump

A late morning link dump for you to peruse while you're in the bathroom at work, killing time until lunch.

*Houston Press (John Royal): On the "progress" of the Rockets' CSN Houston negotiations. (And this CSN Houston update from David Barron).

*Houston Chronicle (Evan Drellich): The Astros will explore Arizona for Spring Training, as Palm Beach Gardens site hits a snag.

*Houston Chronicle (Drellich, again): Astros' scouting staff to meet.

*Drellich on where Brett Oberholtzer gets his Grit.

*Crawfish Boxes with a little more on Jeff Bagwell's power.

*MLBPerspectives talked to Astros scout Spike Lundberg.

*Have you heard TCB and AC talk to Kevin Goldstein?

Kevin Goldstein makes us feel shame

I saw this on Twitter, from Kevin Goldstein's Facebook page (I don't like Facebook). I'm guilty of snarking on Sergio Escalona's PED suspension, so I feel especially shameful.

Kevin Goldstein's traded-prospect rankings

Kevin Goldstein ranked all (Insider-Only) 43 minor-league players traded in July. What does it mean for Houston?

The Pirates haul was the best trade (which makes sense, since it was for Wandy), with Robbie Grossman coming in as the highest-ranked new Astros prospect, at #5 and Rudy Owens at #9.

Click the link for more info...

Goldstein has Astros taking Buxton

Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein has the Astros taking Byron Buxton with the 1-1 on Monday, saying that Luhnow's leash is long enough to take a riskier pick (over, say, Correa or Appel).

Astros rank 26th in organizational rankings

Kevin Goldstein posted his Organizational Ranking list at Baseball Prospectus, and your Astros rank 26th.

Things are looking up thanks to the Hunter Pence trade and 2011 first-round pick George Springer, but it's still the same ol' mess after that.

At least the Astros are ahead of the Tigers, Brewers, Phillies, and White Sox. As far as the AL West is concerned, here you go: A's (4th), Rangers (6th), Mariners (7th), Angels (23rd).