Red Sox and Tigers "most focused" on Lannan

On the heels of yesterday's post about the Astros' interest in John Lannan, Hardball Talk has this update, which lists the Red Sox and Tigers as the ones "most focused" on the Nationals' 6th starter.

Astros watching John Lannan

Danny Knobler tweeted out that the Astros joined the Red Sox and Tigers in watching Nationals pitcher John Lannan today.

Lannan, a 27-year old 6'4" LHP, was 10-13 last year with a 3.70 ERA/1.46 WHIP for Washington, and has posted sub-4.00 ERA in three of his last four seasons (but has outperformed his FIP in every year but 2010). He's under contract for $5m in 2012.

Recap for G85 - Nationals @ Astros

This was more like it. The Astros scored the last eight runs of the game to win 9-4, and salvage a decent day. When the Nationals were up 4-1 after the top of the 3rd, I thought to myself, "Self, you were talking about being a half-game back of the Brewers if they could win one inning plus a game at home against the Nationals. But you forgot, this is the Astros we're talking about."

But this was much better. Ortiz had another rough go of it, getting his ERA up to 4.44 with a poor outing, but the bullpen held the Nationals down until the bats could get going, and get going they did. Let's get the pitching done first...

Ortiz: 3IP, 6H/4ER, 1K:2BB, 7/16 First-pitch strikes, 15/36 non-contact strikes (11 called/4 swinging). 68 pitches.
Fulchino: 1IP, 1H, 1K, 3/4 FPS, 2/11 NCS
Arias: 2IP, 1H, 2K:1BB, 4/8 FPS, 6/16 NCS (4c:2s)
Byrdak: 1IP, 1/3 FPS, 1 NCS (1c)
Sampson: 1IP, 1K, 2/3 FPS, 3 NCS (3c)
Valverde: 1IP, 1H, 2K:1BB, 3/5 FPS, 9/15 NCS (4c:5s)

So let's do a quick recap:
Ortiz: 3IP, 6H/4ER, 1K:2BB
Bullpen: 6IP, 3H/0ER, 6K:2BB

Ortiz never looked comfortable. After getting Morgan to hit a leadoff groundout in the 1st, Johnson singled to center, then advanced to second on a wild pitch, then advanced to third on a Pudge throwing error. Zimmerman singled in Johnson, and Dunn doubled in Zimmerman. He then got Willingham to line out to left, and struck out Guzman. Next time around in the 3rd, Ortiz walked Johnson, allowed Zimmerman a single to center, hit Willingham (after getting Dunn to fly out), then a two-out, two RBI single to Bard. 4-1, and Ortiz' day is done.

It broke open in the bottom of the 6th:
Pudge: leadoff double
Blum: infield single
Keppinger: 2-run triple (4-4)
Michaels: K swinging
Buorn: RBI triple (5-4)
Tejada: RBI single (6-4)

There were multi-hit games from Lee (3x5), Bourn (2x5), Berkman (2x4), Pence (2x4), Blum (2x4), and Keppinger (2x4). The Astros were 7x15 with RISP. 6 of the Astros 16 hits were for extra-bases, with doubles from Lee, Blum, and Pudge; triples from Keppinger and Bourn (his 8th), and the game-sealing three run homer in the 8th by Berkman - his 18th of the season.

Pitch count alert:
Most pitches seen: Pence - 24 in 5 ABs
Fewest pitches seen: Tejada - 10 in 4 ABs

Man of the Match: Lance Berkman. 2x4 with 3RBI and 3 runs scored.

Goat: Russ Ortiz - lucky for him the bullpen bailed him out, because that was getting out of hand.

Matchup for G85 - Nationals @ Astros

Immediately following G84 at 6:05pm, the Nationals will start G85, sending Russ Ortiz to the mound to face Nationals' ace John Lannan.

Tha Nationals are 5-23 in the first games of series, and of course one of those five wins is against the Astros. The Astros are 1-3 in games where they can reach .500.

Russ Ortiz

First of all, let's congratulate Russ on throwing 70IP already this season. Why is that important? Because 70IP is as many as Ortiz has thrown in the majors in one season since 2005.

That said, up until his last start @SF, Russ had managed to keep his ERA under 4.00 since June 4. Before the SF game, the ERA was at 3.36. Funny how 8ER in 5.2IP will invite your ERA to join 4.11 land.

Last three starts:

Date-Opp	IP	H/ER	K:BB	GB/FB	Pit/Str
6/23 vKC	7	5/2	4:2	12/9	110/91
6/28 vDET	7.1	6/2	5:0	9/11	91/62
7/4 @SF	5.2	9/8	7:5	8/10	111/63

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 40x141, .284/.364/.404, 23K:16BB
vs Lefties: 30x122, .246/.357/.393, 31K:21BB

When swinging at the first pitch (24): .364/.391/.864, 5XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (146): .252/.324/.336, 39K:13BB
After First-Pitch Balls (137): .264/.394/.382, 15K:24BB

RISP: 14x60, .233/.304/.300, 15K:5BB
Runners on: 31x116, .267/.346/.379, 27K:13BB
2OwRISP: 9x31, .290/.389/.419, 11K:4BB

John Lannan

John Lannan is The Man. 6-5 on a team that is 24-58. Six wins, and the other starting pitchers for the Nationals have 11. Total. His ERA is a full run lower than the Nationals' SP2.

Lannan has faced the Astros once this season, on May 6 when the Nationals beat the Astros 9-4. Lannan's line: 6IP, 9H/3ER, 0K:2BB.

Last three starts:

Date-Opp	IP	H/ER	K:BB	GB/FB	Pit/Str
6/23 vBOS	6.1	9/3	3:2	9/15	109/69
6/28 @BAL	7.1	6/3	2:3	12/12	102/66
7/4 vATL	8	9/3	1:1	17/11	98/65

It's been since May 31 that Lannan hasn't thrown a quality outing, and that includes starts at Yankee Stadium and against Boston. Last time out vs Atlanta, Lannan got 4 GIDPs. So he won't strike too many batters out, but he's had 10+ groundballs in 11 of his 17 starts.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 71x292, .243/.312/.339, 25K:27BB
vs Lefties: 35x110, .318/.400/.627, 23K:11BB

When swinging at the first pitch (59): .364/.375/.564, 5XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (225): .261/.320/.391, 30K:14BB
After First-Pitch Balls (166): .229/.345/.400, 18K:24BB

RISP: 24x88, .273/.340/.443, 14K:8BB
Runners on: 46x174, .264/.323/.420, 23K:13BB
2OwRISP: 10x45, .222/.314/.311, 9K:5BB

Matchup for G26 - Astros at Nationals

Pointlessly short two-game series against the Nationals in what should prove to be an empty stadium as the Astros try to extend their two-game road winning streak, a two-series road winning streak, and have won five of their last seven road games. Brian Moehler will come off the DL in a start against Washington's John Lannan.

Brian Moehler:

Who knows what to expect from Brian Moehler? I feel like he is owed, and this is even retroactive on my part, a little slack and credit because he was basically pitching hurt. Apparently the tide turned in the massacre at Corpus when catcher Koby Clemens went out to the mound and asked Moehler what he wanted to do. Moehler said "Let's throw changeups." And that was it.

So we're not going to list any stats for Moehler, because he's really starting anew tomorrow. Of course, if he nuts it, then that's different.

John Lannan

Lannan is 0-3 on the year with a 4.61 ERA, but not taking into account his first start of the season - OD09 @ Florida, he's 0-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 26H/8ER, 17K/7BB. He has not been getting many swinging strikes - no more than eight in a game, and three in his last start @ Philadelphia.

Last three starts:

Date-Opp	IP	H/ER	K:BB	GB/FB	Pit/Str
4/17 vs FLA	6.1	3/1	8:1	6/7	99/65
4/22 vs ATL	7	5/0	4:2	13/9	95/60
4/28 @ PHI	5	9/3	2:1	14/8	83/53

Interesting Splits:
Home: 13.1IP, 8H/1ER, 12K:3BB, 0.68 ERA/0.83 WHIP
After FPB: 8x41, 5K:5BB, .195/.298/.415
After FPS: 17x54, 13K:2BB, .315/.339/.537
RISP: 8x21, 3K:2BB, .381/.458/.810
W/2 outs: 16x41, 5K:4BB, .390/.457/.610

Lannan only appeared once against the Astros in 2008: a May 8 win at Minute Maid Park, getting the win in an 8-3 victory. I knew this, because this was one of the games I attended last year.