Word broke about an hour ago, while I was waiting on the free Kindle sample of Ed Wade's book to be delivered, that popular Astros color commentator Jim Deshaies - who had been with the Astros since 1997 - has accepted the same position with the Chicago Cubs.
And what do you know, Deshaies fans? We (as in, "Astros Fans,") may be at fault. Carrie Muskat's article on Cubs.com says:
The news of Deshaies' possible defection to Chicago created a small firestorm among dismayed fans on the Internet. A combination of Deshaies' strong interview with network and club executives, the outcry from the Houston fanbase and support from Kasper may have swung the pendulum in Deshaies' favor earlier than expected.
George Postolos wrote in an email:
We value Jim highly and did everything in our power to retain him. While we are sorry to see him go, we respect his decision. We appreciate his many years as an Astros player and broadcaster and wish him well.
JD's partner, Bill Brown, still isn't sure what he's going to do...seeing as how he and the Astros haven't talked in two months:
"I need to talk to some people about this. I need to know a whole lot more about the situation than I know now. I was afraid something like this might happen because of the way in which Astros broadcasters are handled on one-year contracts. I'm surprised this didn't happen earlier....We have not talked in two months now. I need to know what the timing is, what the direction is, the philosophies. There are a lot of blank spaces to be filled in for me."
Look, if Deshaies wanted to leave, he was going to leave. There was no incentive for him to stay. The Astros allegedly countered with "fair market value," but it was Deshaies' job to leave. We've talked about this before (both sides of the issue), but if the Astros haven't talked to Bill Brown in two months, then how hard were they were pushing to keep him. Whatever - Astros gonna Astro. I'm just personally upset that we've lost one of the few reasons to watch the Astros for the past couple of seasons.
We'll see who the Astros get to replace him before reserving final judgment, but for now, I'm not happy.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Monday, December 3, 2012
Ed Wade wrote a book
Dave Raymond had a couple of bizarre tweets this afternoon - one about Cecil Cooper still being able to hit .300 and one about Ed Wade's new book.
Yes. You read that right. Ed Wade wrote "Delayed Honor." Here's the summary:
Steve Laun returns home to attend the funeral of a father he hasn't seen
in years, only to learn that his father's "accidental" death is cloaked
in mystery. With the help of neighbors and a burning desire to correct
wrongs on a number of fronts, Laun sets out to get to the bottom of his
father's death, and, in the process, uncovers and thwarts the efforts
of a local arms dealer with worldwide terrorist connections. While
following Laun's quest for justice, we learn that there is more to Steve
Laun than meets the eye.
It's $9.99 for your Kindle. There is one customer review, and it was given five stars.
Yes. You read that right. Ed Wade wrote "Delayed Honor." Here's the summary:
Steve Laun returns home to attend the funeral of a father he hasn't seen
in years, only to learn that his father's "accidental" death is cloaked
in mystery. With the help of neighbors and a burning desire to correct
wrongs on a number of fronts, Laun sets out to get to the bottom of his
father's death, and, in the process, uncovers and thwarts the efforts
of a local arms dealer with worldwide terrorist connections. While
following Laun's quest for justice, we learn that there is more to Steve
Laun than meets the eye.It's $9.99 for your Kindle. There is one customer review, and it was given five stars.
Heyman adds to what we already know
Jon Heyman adds to already-established information, that the Astros are interested in finding something called a "Designated Hitter," which sounds like something Bud Selig made up, much like an "All-Time QB," that can't possibly be real.
Nevertheless, that's what the Astros are after. Heyman says Berkman is a possible fit were the money to be right. But he also adds Carlos Pena and Travis Hafner as "in the mix." Whether he's just picking out names based on whose agents he sees in front of him, or if they're actual possibilities, is undetermined.
Nevertheless, that's what the Astros are after. Heyman says Berkman is a possible fit were the money to be right. But he also adds Carlos Pena and Travis Hafner as "in the mix." Whether he's just picking out names based on whose agents he sees in front of him, or if they're actual possibilities, is undetermined.
2013 Hall of Fame roll call
If you're an Early-Morning type of AC reader, you'll notice that we have deleted two separate posts detailing the Hall of Fame votes of BBWAA writers. We have moved all of that information to a separate page, which you can find at the top of the header, or right here.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Two Fantastic HOF reads
While you are at home, likely celebrating the Texans' victory over the Titans (while I can hear weeping and gnashing of teeth from my Nashville home), there have been a couple of extremely well-written perspectives on the Hall of Fame.
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Bernie Miklasz
The New York Daily News's Bill Madden:
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Bernie Miklasz
The New York Daily News's Bill Madden:
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Astros sign Phil Humber
The Astros announced yesterday that they have signed RHP Phil Humber to a 1-year deal with a team option for 2014. Humber, who will be 30 later this month, comes to Houston from the White Sox, returning to the Great State of Texas. The Nacogdoches native (graduating from Carthage HS), and Rice graduate, was the third overall pick in the 2004 draft by the Mets.
In 44 career starts (80 appearances overall), he is 14-14 with a 4.73 ERA/1.31 WHIP. Some have mentioned Humber as a possible reliever. But his career splits show that, in that role, he has a 5.46 ERA/1.61 WHIP, with an .810 OPS-against and a 1.48 K/BB ratio (.723 OPS-against, 2.41 K/BB as a starter).
Humber was part of the Feb 2008 trade from the Mets to the Twins for Johan Santana, and was granted free agency following the 2009 season. He signed with the Royals in December 09, and has been claimed off waivers by the A's, White Sox, and now Astros in each of the last three seasons. Of course, you remember the April 21, 2012 game in which Humber threw the 21st perfect game in MLB history against Seattle.
Prior to the signing, Bill James had Humber projected to a 4.66 ERA, going 5-8, in 2013.
His peripherals took a nose-dive in 2012 for the White Sox from 2011. Check it:
2011 GB/FB rate: 1.30
2012 GB/FB rate: 0.81
2011 GB%: 47.1%
2012 GB%: 34.9%
2011 HR/FB%: 7.7%
2012 HR/FB%: 16.5%
Humber threw his changeup far less in 2012 (7.5%) than in 2011 (14.6%, while his fastball (which he threw 52.6% of the time in 2011, as opposed to 45.8% in 2011) velocity stayed exactly the same - 90.5mph. FanGraphs' Pitch F/X says his fastball improved a few ticks from 90.4mph to 90.7mph.
That said, Humber deal with an elbow flexor issue in 2012. The White Sox were 8-8 in his 16 starts for the White Sox.
What does this mean? It's a low-risk/high-reward signing. Might it not work out? Of course. That might even be likely. But it just might. Given Goldstein, Fast, and Sig Mejdal's influence on signings, this one feels a little different. It's not Ed Wade taking a flier on Mike Hampton or Russ Ortiz.
The immediate benefit I see is that Humber has been in the AL since 2008. He has thrown 265IP in the AL in the last two years. He's someone that is presumably intelligent (Rice, after all) who can give the pitching staff pointers on pitching to AL batters. And if he can make 20-25 starts at a decent level, while providing the younger guys time to get some more seasoning, even better.
Update: GUYS. Read this reaction from Lookout Landing.
Update: GUYS. Read this reaction from Lookout Landing.
Friday, November 30, 2012
2013 Hall of Fame odds
The Linemakers at Sporting News have compiled their odds (even though, they admit, you cannot wager on Hall of Fame inductions). Their results?
Craig Biggio - 7/2 odds
Jeff Bagwell - 5/1 odds
Craig Biggio - 7/2 odds
Jeff Bagwell - 5/1 odds
Tom Verducci on Biggio's HOF chances
Tom Verducci took a (very) cursory glance at Biggio's career, and assesses his Hall of Fame chances. Click the link for the full write-up, but your money quote is:
It's a close call, but if he does have to wait, it won't be for very long.
It's a close call, but if he does have to wait, it won't be for very long.
Astros Inferno: Gluttony!
We are pinpointing the exact date the Astros have traveled Dante's trip through Hell in The Inferno. Read the archive here.
-
We leave Dante's second circle of hell (Lust) and the signings of Carlos Lee and Woody Williams on the same day, and descend further...
The Great Work Cerberus stands guard over the gluttons, who are punished by lying in a "vile slush" brought about by a permanent icy rain. One prominent Dante scholar wrote that "the surrender to sin which began with mutual indulgence leads by an imperceptible degradation to solitary self-indulgence." Because the gluttons consumed to excess, they meet their fate under the cold, dirty rain, lying unhappily in putrid mud. Dante speaks to Ciacco, who prophesies disaster for Florence.
Gluttony. Perhaps the best word to describe the Astros from 2004-2007. Regard:
*In 2004, Richard Hidalgo was paid $12.5m. He was traded to the Mets after 58 games of hitting .256/.309/.412.
*In 2006, Preston Wilson made $4m. He was traded to St. Louis after hitting .263/.307/.423.
*In 2006, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens made a combined $28.6m (after, admittedly, some major hometown discounts).
*In the 2006 off-season, the Astros signed Carlos Lee and Woody Williams, thus ensuring that their first pick of the 2007 draft was the 111th overall pick. They selected Derek Dietrich and Brett Eibner (neither of whom have appeared in the Majors), but didn't offer enough money for them to sign. The first Astros pick in the 2007 draft to sign was 5th Rounder Collin DeLome. The Astros have had one player from that draft reach the Majors (38th Round pick Robbie Weinhardt - who pitched in 30 games for the Tigers in 2010/11). The Cardinals, just as a comparison, had 12 players from the 2007 draft reach the Majors.
*The Astros paid $180,310,503 in payroll in 2006-2007, and went 155-169.
Were you to speak to Ciacco, he would have prophesied disaster for the Astros in 2006. Mutual indulgence lead by an imperceptible degradation to solitary self-indulgence.
-
We leave Dante's second circle of hell (Lust) and the signings of Carlos Lee and Woody Williams on the same day, and descend further...
The Great Work Cerberus stands guard over the gluttons, who are punished by lying in a "vile slush" brought about by a permanent icy rain. One prominent Dante scholar wrote that "the surrender to sin which began with mutual indulgence leads by an imperceptible degradation to solitary self-indulgence." Because the gluttons consumed to excess, they meet their fate under the cold, dirty rain, lying unhappily in putrid mud. Dante speaks to Ciacco, who prophesies disaster for Florence.
Gluttony. Perhaps the best word to describe the Astros from 2004-2007. Regard:
*In 2004, Richard Hidalgo was paid $12.5m. He was traded to the Mets after 58 games of hitting .256/.309/.412.
*In 2006, Preston Wilson made $4m. He was traded to St. Louis after hitting .263/.307/.423.
*In 2006, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens made a combined $28.6m (after, admittedly, some major hometown discounts).
*In the 2006 off-season, the Astros signed Carlos Lee and Woody Williams, thus ensuring that their first pick of the 2007 draft was the 111th overall pick. They selected Derek Dietrich and Brett Eibner (neither of whom have appeared in the Majors), but didn't offer enough money for them to sign. The first Astros pick in the 2007 draft to sign was 5th Rounder Collin DeLome. The Astros have had one player from that draft reach the Majors (38th Round pick Robbie Weinhardt - who pitched in 30 games for the Tigers in 2010/11). The Cardinals, just as a comparison, had 12 players from the 2007 draft reach the Majors.
*The Astros paid $180,310,503 in payroll in 2006-2007, and went 155-169.
Were you to speak to Ciacco, he would have prophesied disaster for the Astros in 2006. Mutual indulgence lead by an imperceptible degradation to solitary self-indulgence.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Lopez Talks Fall Through
The deal with the Phillies for Wilton Lopez has hit a snag, and it seems to be all but dead, based on this report from Brian McTaggart. The reported deal was Lopez for Phillies prospects Sebastian Valle and Tyler Cloyd. The Phillies appear to have balked at the results of Lopez's physical.
The Astros are not in a position in their development where holding on to their closer, or any reliever for that matter, is worth passing on legitimate talent in a trade. However, Lopez is cost controlled through 2016, and proved to be the most (only?) reliable member of the bullpen last year. I would not have been devastated to see him go, but I am glad he is sticking around for now. Unless whatever the Phillies saw in the physical does him in, which is a very real possibility.
The Astros are not in a position in their development where holding on to their closer, or any reliever for that matter, is worth passing on legitimate talent in a trade. However, Lopez is cost controlled through 2016, and proved to be the most (only?) reliable member of the bullpen last year. I would not have been devastated to see him go, but I am glad he is sticking around for now. Unless whatever the Phillies saw in the physical does him in, which is a very real possibility.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Good for Ricky Bennett
Ricky Bennett (and former Astros scout John Kosciak) got a job as a scout for the Pirates, according to Scott Miller.
Philip Hersh is why I hate the BBWAA
This man, who covers the Olympics - yes, you read that right - is a voting member of the BBWAA, and will pass judgment on the Hall of Fame.
It started with this:
Oh, the joy I will have snubbing Sosa, Bonds and Clemens (plus McGwire and Palmeiro, natch) on my HoF ballot.
Presumably asked why the hell he would take such a gleeful stance when, after all, he was tweeting about Lindsey Vonn's stomach illness six minutes earlier, he replied:
I have a ballot because I covered baseball for nearly 20 years. And I'm keeping it just to vote against the druggies.
He'll vote for Biggio, but not Bagwell. Why? Because screw you, that's why:
Haven't voted for Bagwell. Am likely to say no again.
Hooray, BBWAA. You can kindly go to hell.
(For other, more erudite posts on Olympic Reporter/Hall of Fame Voter Philip Hersh you can read this and this.)
Oh hey. Hersh may change his mind...
To tell the truth, I am conflicted on Bagwell and may change my mind, as I have done in the past with other players when PEDs weren't in ?
It started with this:
Oh, the joy I will have snubbing Sosa, Bonds and Clemens (plus McGwire and Palmeiro, natch) on my HoF ballot.
Presumably asked why the hell he would take such a gleeful stance when, after all, he was tweeting about Lindsey Vonn's stomach illness six minutes earlier, he replied:
I have a ballot because I covered baseball for nearly 20 years. And I'm keeping it just to vote against the druggies.
He'll vote for Biggio, but not Bagwell. Why? Because screw you, that's why:
Haven't voted for Bagwell. Am likely to say no again.
Hooray, BBWAA. You can kindly go to hell.
(For other, more erudite posts on Olympic Reporter/Hall of Fame Voter Philip Hersh you can read this and this.)
Oh hey. Hersh may change his mind...
To tell the truth, I am conflicted on Bagwell and may change my mind, as I have done in the past with other players when PEDs weren't in ?
Phillies are doing something with Wilton Lopez
Jim Salisbury, the Phillies Insider at CSN Philly, says the Phillies are in "serious talks" with the Astros to acquire Wilton Lopez. Ken Rosenthal has confirmed Salisbury's report. Salisbury says Lopez would be the set-up man for Papelbon.
Lopez was selected off waivers by Ed Wade from the Padres in 2009, and has spent his entire Major-League career with the Astros. From 2010-2012, Lopez has posted a 2.64 ERA / 1.13 WHIP, walking just 31 of the 820 batters he has faced over those three season. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.
Brian Smith reminds us that, in order to give up a guy under team control for three seasons, Luhnow would want major- and minor-league talent in return.
Jon Heyman basically says the deal is done, both sides are just finalizing prospects. Heyman says those prospects will be "near-ML ready."
Update: Luhnow says there is "nothing to report" regarding the trade.
Updated Update: McTaggart has "a baseball source" who says the deal is being finalized. The Philadelphia Inquirer's Bob Brookover says that Lopez is in Philadelphia for a physical.
11:06am: The New Jersey Star-Ledger report indicates that there is one prospect coming back in the deal.
11:36am: CBS Philly says there are "minor-leaguers," plural, going to Houston.
1:02pm: via Todd Zolecki, the Phillies' prospects have been agreed upon.
1:26pm: Prospect Insider says the deal is pending the physical, with two players going to Houston.
1:41pm: ESPN's Kiley McDaniel says that Lopez's physical "isn't a slam dunk," and other teams have been scared about Lopez's medical reports. Remember that back in July/August, Lopez had some elbow tightness and was "unavailable" for a period of time. Last March, Lopez also had forearm issues.And in April 2011, Lopez had neuritis in his pitching elbow.
1:50pm: CSNPhilly says:
A source said they would get two players who have played in the upper levels of the minors if the deal is finalized. That's a decent-sized "if," given Lopez's medical history. But it does look like there are two higher-level minor-leaguers in the deal, which could include 22-year old catcher Sebastian Valle.
Lopez was selected off waivers by Ed Wade from the Padres in 2009, and has spent his entire Major-League career with the Astros. From 2010-2012, Lopez has posted a 2.64 ERA / 1.13 WHIP, walking just 31 of the 820 batters he has faced over those three season. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.
Brian Smith reminds us that, in order to give up a guy under team control for three seasons, Luhnow would want major- and minor-league talent in return.
Jon Heyman basically says the deal is done, both sides are just finalizing prospects. Heyman says those prospects will be "near-ML ready."
Update: Luhnow says there is "nothing to report" regarding the trade.
Updated Update: McTaggart has "a baseball source" who says the deal is being finalized. The Philadelphia Inquirer's Bob Brookover says that Lopez is in Philadelphia for a physical.
11:06am: The New Jersey Star-Ledger report indicates that there is one prospect coming back in the deal.
11:36am: CBS Philly says there are "minor-leaguers," plural, going to Houston.
1:02pm: via Todd Zolecki, the Phillies' prospects have been agreed upon.
1:26pm: Prospect Insider says the deal is pending the physical, with two players going to Houston.
1:41pm: ESPN's Kiley McDaniel says that Lopez's physical "isn't a slam dunk," and other teams have been scared about Lopez's medical reports. Remember that back in July/August, Lopez had some elbow tightness and was "unavailable" for a period of time. Last March, Lopez also had forearm issues.And in April 2011, Lopez had neuritis in his pitching elbow.
1:50pm: CSNPhilly says:
A source said they would get two players who have played in the upper levels of the minors if the deal is finalized. That's a decent-sized "if," given Lopez's medical history. But it does look like there are two higher-level minor-leaguers in the deal, which could include 22-year old catcher Sebastian Valle.
A Veritable Wave of Rationality
Okay, maybe not. But Pete Abraham has declared he will no longer use the privilege of his Hall of Fame vote to serve as morality police. And his rationale is spot on. The role of the Hall of Fame voters has always been to select the most deserving players from every era, stains and all. They are instructed to consider integrity and character, but this has not prevented the BBWAA from electing crooks, liars and cheaters before. The Hall is full of them.
Abraham does not reveal his ballot, and he voted for Bagwell last year anyway. But I think its an encouraging sign that a prominent writer is taking this stand. If more voters adopt Abraham's view, the completely unsubstantiated whispers of steroid use won't matter much at all, and we can all start planning our trips to Cooperstown to see the the induction of two Astro greats. Maybe that's wishful thinking.
Abraham does not reveal his ballot, and he voted for Bagwell last year anyway. But I think its an encouraging sign that a prominent writer is taking this stand. If more voters adopt Abraham's view, the completely unsubstantiated whispers of steroid use won't matter much at all, and we can all start planning our trips to Cooperstown to see the the induction of two Astro greats. Maybe that's wishful thinking.
Kathleen Clark leaves Astros
Kathleen Clark, the Astros Vice President of Marketing & Strategy, has left the Astros after nine months and has returned to her old firm, Carta Marketing Strategy & Solutions.
Crane:
The Houston Astros would like to thank Kathleen Clark for her work on the successful first season campaign, strengthening the marketing staff, and the successful launch of new logo, identity and uniforms.
This is odd. Clark tweeted this morning:
Astros rebranding complete, marketing team rebuilt, season campaign ready. Best to Jeff, Bo and team in AL next year! I'll be rooting.
Crane:
The Houston Astros would like to thank Kathleen Clark for her work on the successful first season campaign, strengthening the marketing staff, and the successful launch of new logo, identity and uniforms.
This is odd. Clark tweeted this morning:
Astros rebranding complete, marketing team rebuilt, season campaign ready. Best to Jeff, Bo and team in AL next year! I'll be rooting.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Astros sign two more minor-league free agents
The Astros have signed two more minor-league free agents (in addition to Valdez and Gonzalez from earlier today), with invitations to Spring Training.
OF Trevor Crowe
The switch-hitting Crowe, who just turned 29, was the Indians 1st Round pick (14th overall) in the 2005 draft. He has played in 205 MLB games (713 PAs) with a career .245/.295/.329 line - all with the Indians. Crowe saw the most playing time in 2010, when he played all three outfield positions and hit .251/.302/.333 with 20 stolen bases, getting thrown out seven times.
He has a career .275/.359/.393 slash line in eight seasons in the minors. In 2012, he played in 84 games (350 PAs), with a .281/.349/.397 line, 52K:34BB. He's mainly a doubles guy, hitting 19 doubles in 2012, and with more triples (4) than homers (3) last season.
Crowe was released by the Indians on July 16, 2012, and signed with the Angels on July 17 who granted Crowe free agency on November 3. Fun baseball fact time! Trevor Crowe was the 28th out in Armando Galarraga's Imperfect Game on June 2, 2010.
LHP Sergio Escalona
Familiar name alert! Escalona, 28, was acquired by the Phillies in 2011 in the Albert Cartwright trade. He last pitched in 2011 having undergone elbow surgery in early 2012 (from, what my records tell me, hyper-extending his elbow swinging a bat - which makes perfect sense for a reliever) . He was outrighted off the 40-Man roster on November 1 but, obviously, has re-signed with the Astros on a minor-league deal.
Escalona killed it against lefties in 2011, holding LHBs to a .188/.278/.313 line in 74 PAs.
OF Trevor Crowe
The switch-hitting Crowe, who just turned 29, was the Indians 1st Round pick (14th overall) in the 2005 draft. He has played in 205 MLB games (713 PAs) with a career .245/.295/.329 line - all with the Indians. Crowe saw the most playing time in 2010, when he played all three outfield positions and hit .251/.302/.333 with 20 stolen bases, getting thrown out seven times.
He has a career .275/.359/.393 slash line in eight seasons in the minors. In 2012, he played in 84 games (350 PAs), with a .281/.349/.397 line, 52K:34BB. He's mainly a doubles guy, hitting 19 doubles in 2012, and with more triples (4) than homers (3) last season.
Crowe was released by the Indians on July 16, 2012, and signed with the Angels on July 17 who granted Crowe free agency on November 3. Fun baseball fact time! Trevor Crowe was the 28th out in Armando Galarraga's Imperfect Game on June 2, 2010.
LHP Sergio Escalona
Familiar name alert! Escalona, 28, was acquired by the Phillies in 2011 in the Albert Cartwright trade. He last pitched in 2011 having undergone elbow surgery in early 2012 (from, what my records tell me, hyper-extending his elbow swinging a bat - which makes perfect sense for a reliever) . He was outrighted off the 40-Man roster on November 1 but, obviously, has re-signed with the Astros on a minor-league deal.
Escalona killed it against lefties in 2011, holding LHBs to a .188/.278/.313 line in 74 PAs.
Bagwell, Biggio on Hall of Fame ballot
So the 2013 Hall of Fame ballots were sent out to the voting members of the BBWAA this week, and Craig Biggio will make his debut, while Jeff Bagwell will make his 3rd appearance on the ballot.
We've spent some time thinking about this. (Not Hank) Aaron looked at the "evidence" supporting the BAGWELL DID STEROIDS argument. Last month we looked at what Biggio might expect from his first ballot. As far back as last January, we started tracking some writers' views on the 2013 ballot. In short, we have a lot of rage built up, and are ready to start shaming people.
Astros County will link to those writersdumb brave enough to post their thoughts on the Hall of Fame and who "is deserving" of the honor of being encased in glass in Cooperstown, and put on display like David Blaine. These columns should start coming out shortly, so we'll just have one post and update it (and move it to the top) whenever we run across them.
Let the "fun" begin...
We've spent some time thinking about this. (Not Hank) Aaron looked at the "evidence" supporting the BAGWELL DID STEROIDS argument. Last month we looked at what Biggio might expect from his first ballot. As far back as last January, we started tracking some writers' views on the 2013 ballot. In short, we have a lot of rage built up, and are ready to start shaming people.
Astros County will link to those writers
Let the "fun" begin...
Astros to add Rule 5 player
Next week as the Winter Meetings wind down, we get the Rule 5 draft, where teams can add unprotected minor-league players to their 25-Man roster. The Astros have been active in the Rule 5 draft in recent years, bringing the team Rhiner Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, Aneury Rodriguez, and Wesley Wright. A player selected has to stay on the 25-Man roster for the entire season or be returned to the original team.
Given that the Astros had the worst record in baseball in 2012, they'll get the first pick in the Rule 5 draft, and Jeff Luhnow says they expect to take a player:
There are definitely players of interest to us. It’s just a matter of how they fit on our roster compared to our other alternatives.
Luhnow went on to say that he expects to add one or two players in the Rule 5 portion, which takes place December 6.
Given that the Astros had the worst record in baseball in 2012, they'll get the first pick in the Rule 5 draft, and Jeff Luhnow says they expect to take a player:
There are definitely players of interest to us. It’s just a matter of how they fit on our roster compared to our other alternatives.
Luhnow went on to say that he expects to add one or two players in the Rule 5 portion, which takes place December 6.
Astros re-sign Edgar Gonzalez, Jose Valdez
Optioned off of the 40-man roster last week, the Astros have re-signed pitchers Jose Valdez and Edgar Gonzalez to minor-league deals with an invite to Spring Training.
Valdez, who will be 30 in January, threw 12IP for the Astros in 2012, with 12H/3ER, 10K:8BB for a 2.25 ERA/1.67 WHIP. He spent most of his time at OKC, where he threw 43.2IP, with 53H/24ER, 59K:12BB.
Edgar Gonzalez, who will also be 30 on Opening Day 2013, was somewhat of a surprise for the Astros in 2012. In six starts for Houston, he threw 25IP, 23H/14ER, 18K:8BB, for a 5.04 ERA/1.23 WHIP. Though he never made it out of the 6th inning, He posted Game Scores over 50 (which is average, which the Astros weren't) in four of the six starts.
Valdez, who will be 30 in January, threw 12IP for the Astros in 2012, with 12H/3ER, 10K:8BB for a 2.25 ERA/1.67 WHIP. He spent most of his time at OKC, where he threw 43.2IP, with 53H/24ER, 59K:12BB.
Edgar Gonzalez, who will also be 30 on Opening Day 2013, was somewhat of a surprise for the Astros in 2012. In six starts for Houston, he threw 25IP, 23H/14ER, 18K:8BB, for a 5.04 ERA/1.23 WHIP. Though he never made it out of the 6th inning, He posted Game Scores over 50 (which is average, which the Astros weren't) in four of the six starts.
Monday, November 26, 2012
Debunking the Bagwell/Steroids Connection
Jeff Bagwell is entering his 3rd year of Hall of
Fame eligibility, and received 56% of the vote last year. The general consensus
is that his numbers are deserving of enshrinement, but that his vote totals are
depressed from whispers of steroids use. (I'm assuming everyone here knows how incredibly deserving he is of enshrinement. If not, I'm sure one of us at AC would be happy to outline that). There has been no direct evidence of use, but there are some
who have built a case based on what could loosely be described as speculation
and conjecture. This is faced with consistent and clear denials of use from Bagwell himself. I am
aware that many users have denied, and its perfectly legitimate to disbelieve a denial when faced with conflicting evidence. However, disbelief of someone’s unequivocal denials
without any evidence seems misanthropic. I'd like to take a look at the case presented, to see how it holds up.
Steroid accusers often point to Bagwell’s explosion of power in 1994, compared with his middling power in the minor leagues and in his first several seasons in the majors. In his minor league career he hit a total of 6 homeruns. In his first year in the majors, he hit 15, then 18, then 20 and then 39 in the strike shortened 1994.
But what about the jump in 1994? That kind of power surge was abnormal, right? There is no doubt that Bagwell was having an all-world season in 1994. At the time of the strike, he had 39 homeruns, and had a reasonable chance at 50+ (although he had just broken his hand, so the strike might have actually clinched the MVP he would have lost had the season gone on.) He never really approached those numbers again, at least in the Astrodome, topping out at 43 in 1997. So, is a huge jump in homeruns between your third and fourth seasons, at the age of 26, a sign of steroid use?
Well, Hank Aaron jumped to 44, from a max of 27, in his third full season at the age of 23. Willie McCovey jumped to 44, from 20, in his 5th season, at the age of 25. Willie Stargell saved his breakout 48 homerun binge for his 8th season, at 31. He had never hit more than 31 before. Mike Schmidt jumped from 18 to 38 in his third season at the age of 24. Stan Musial had never hit more than 19 homeruns before he hit 39 in his sixth full season at the age of 27. Carl Yastrzemski hit 44 at the age of 27, his seventh full season, despite never even hitting 20 prior. I'm sure we could find more, but I've now gotten to Bagwell on the all time homer list, so it seems like a good place to stop. If a huge rise in your homerun totals from one year to the next, in your late 20’s, is a sign of steroid use, these players have some explaining to do.
I am not using this in the general sense, i.e. that all players in the 90’s are under a cloud. This is used very inconsistently, and has not held mid 90’s superstars such as Roberto Alomar from entrance. No, I’m referring to the claim that Houston was a hotbed of steroid use, and that adds extra suspicion to Bagwell. I have seen this in various places, but most notably from Jeff Pearlman, who claims that the Rangers and Astros were well known to have the most connections to steroids in baseball. He has never provided any evidence of this, as many of our readers are very familiar. So let’s just analyze the facts we know.
A quick caveat. I don’t know whether Bagwell used
steroids. I personally do not believe he did. However I am not naïve. If
evidence of use is discovered, I will be disappointed, but not shocked. However, mere accusations without evidence amounts to
nothing more than a witch hunt.
Physical Evidence
This is probably the most commonly
used evidence, and essentially posits…”well, look at him.” There is no doubt
that, in his prime, Bagwell had a weight lifter's body. A comparison of
Bagwell’s rookie card to shots from the mid to late 90’s shows someone who had
bulked up considerably, or so they say. Seems like this shot of Bagwell in his Red Sox minor league days shows some significant
muscles. Not that much different that this guy. But still, there really is no denying that Bagwell got much stronger in his mid to late 20’s.
This is where not being naïve
comes in. In the 90’s, many players bulked up and many of them have been linked
to steroids. Once a player is linked to steroids, I think it is perfectly fine
to look at body changes to help corroborate the accusation. It just can’t be used
the other way around. You know another way of getting a weight lifter’s body… lifting weights. Bagwell was a noted gym rat.
A 21-22 year old kid, especially one already sporting the muscles shown
in the above picture, who gets on a legitimate workout regimen, is going to add
muscle into his late 20’s. Heck, I added (very limited) muscle in my 20’s, and I never touched
a weight. For Bagwell’s physique to offer proof of steroid use, it would have
to be accepted that he could not have gotten that way naturally, even on the workout regimen he was on. Which is of course preposterous.
Stats
Steroid accusers often point to Bagwell’s explosion of power in 1994, compared with his middling power in the minor leagues and in his first several seasons in the majors. In his minor league career he hit a total of 6 homeruns. In his first year in the majors, he hit 15, then 18, then 20 and then 39 in the strike shortened 1994.
Looking closer at his minor league
numbers shows that his power numbers are misleading. Yes, he only hit 4 homeruns in his 22 year old year at New Britain. But he hit 34 doubles, in only 136
at bats. His slugging percentage, as a result, was .457. He would not top that
in the majors until his third season. In addition, his league, and his home ballpark, was
notoriously tough on power. None of his teammates hit over 5 home runs, and the
league leader (Rico Brogna) hit only 21. Bagwell led the league in doubles and was in the top ten in slugging. Bagwell’s power potential was evident even in
the minors.
But what about the jump in 1994? That kind of power surge was abnormal, right? There is no doubt that Bagwell was having an all-world season in 1994. At the time of the strike, he had 39 homeruns, and had a reasonable chance at 50+ (although he had just broken his hand, so the strike might have actually clinched the MVP he would have lost had the season gone on.) He never really approached those numbers again, at least in the Astrodome, topping out at 43 in 1997. So, is a huge jump in homeruns between your third and fourth seasons, at the age of 26, a sign of steroid use?
Well, Hank Aaron jumped to 44, from a max of 27, in his third full season at the age of 23. Willie McCovey jumped to 44, from 20, in his 5th season, at the age of 25. Willie Stargell saved his breakout 48 homerun binge for his 8th season, at 31. He had never hit more than 31 before. Mike Schmidt jumped from 18 to 38 in his third season at the age of 24. Stan Musial had never hit more than 19 homeruns before he hit 39 in his sixth full season at the age of 27. Carl Yastrzemski hit 44 at the age of 27, his seventh full season, despite never even hitting 20 prior. I'm sure we could find more, but I've now gotten to Bagwell on the all time homer list, so it seems like a good place to stop. If a huge rise in your homerun totals from one year to the next, in your late 20’s, is a sign of steroid use, these players have some explaining to do.
Guilt by Association
I am not using this in the general sense, i.e. that all players in the 90’s are under a cloud. This is used very inconsistently, and has not held mid 90’s superstars such as Roberto Alomar from entrance. No, I’m referring to the claim that Houston was a hotbed of steroid use, and that adds extra suspicion to Bagwell. I have seen this in various places, but most notably from Jeff Pearlman, who claims that the Rangers and Astros were well known to have the most connections to steroids in baseball. He has never provided any evidence of this, as many of our readers are very familiar. So let’s just analyze the facts we know.
One of the most prominent steroid
users in baseball was Ken Caminiti, who openly admitted that he used steroids.
That is many people’s a-ha moment. Bagwell and Caminiti were close friends, and
played together in Houston for several years. The steroid connection is made.
But that ignores what Caminiti actually admitted to.
Caminiti openly acknowledged
steroid use beginning in 1996, in his MVP season with the Padres, after
injuring his shoulder. So two seasons after Bagwell had his huge power
increase, a former teammate began using steroids while playing for a different team, and this is supposed
to implicate Bagwell? I can’t really see the connection. Other notable connections
include Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, who were both accused of taking
steroids while with the Yankees in the late 90’s and early 2000s. Pettitte
admitted HGH use in 2002, although he denied use any other times. The Mitchell
Report alleged Clemens used from 1998 through 2002. Many assume Clemens was using when he played for the Astros in 2004 through 2006, but this was after testing began. Clemens, of course,
denied all of those allegations, even defeating charges of perjury in a recent
trial. Regardless of whether you believe Clemens used or not, its hard to tie that back to Bagwell. Several other former Astros were named in the Mitchell Report, but none,
except Caminiti in 1999, were tied to use at the time they played with the
Astros. I know the Mitchell Report is flawed, but unfortunately, it is the best evidence we have.
Did the Astros have a steroid’s
problem in the late 90’s? Sure. Its fair to say every team did. However, was it so
significant that no Astros player’s denial can reasonably be believed? I have
seen no evidence of that.
Bottom line, Bagwell's career arc was consistent with sluggers throughout history, and his physique was easily explained by an intense workout regimen. It has been 8 years since Bagwell's retirement, and he has been under Hall of Fame scrutiny for three years. I believe if anyone had evidence of use they would have come forward by now. Besides, Morgan Ensberg doesn't think Bagwell used. And if we can't trust Morgan Ensberg, who can we trust?
Bottom line, Bagwell's career arc was consistent with sluggers throughout history, and his physique was easily explained by an intense workout regimen. It has been 8 years since Bagwell's retirement, and he has been under Hall of Fame scrutiny for three years. I believe if anyone had evidence of use they would have come forward by now. Besides, Morgan Ensberg doesn't think Bagwell used. And if we can't trust Morgan Ensberg, who can we trust?
Friday, November 23, 2012
Astros Inferno: The Second Circle of Hell
We continue our series on Dante's Inferno as an allegory for Astros fandom, published every Friday.
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In the second circle of Hell, we encounter those overcome by lust. Dante blasts the "carnal malefactors" for letting their appetites sway their reason. They are the first residents of Hell to be actually punished. This is a place devoid of light, the unforgiving winds of desire are punishment for their transgressions. The hurricane never rests, smiting its residents. Reason has been betrayed in search of pleasure and instant gratification. Those who have been unable to control their desires and natural urges reside here, whose actions led them and their lovers to death.
November 27, 2006. Here sits Drayton McLane, in search of instant gratification, unwilling to go through the desperately-needed rebuilding process and eschewing reason to continue his desire of playoff berths and pennants. His minion stands to his left, those objects of his instant gratification to his right - the Guinevere to Drayton's Lancelot.
The hurricane never rests, and we are smitten because of it. Here we encounter Drayton McLane, unable to control his desires.
---
In the second circle of Hell, we encounter those overcome by lust. Dante blasts the "carnal malefactors" for letting their appetites sway their reason. They are the first residents of Hell to be actually punished. This is a place devoid of light, the unforgiving winds of desire are punishment for their transgressions. The hurricane never rests, smiting its residents. Reason has been betrayed in search of pleasure and instant gratification. Those who have been unable to control their desires and natural urges reside here, whose actions led them and their lovers to death.
November 27, 2006. Here sits Drayton McLane, in search of instant gratification, unwilling to go through the desperately-needed rebuilding process and eschewing reason to continue his desire of playoff berths and pennants. His minion stands to his left, those objects of his instant gratification to his right - the Guinevere to Drayton's Lancelot.
The hurricane never rests, and we are smitten because of it. Here we encounter Drayton McLane, unable to control his desires.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
40-Man Roster set squarely at 36
Okay, the Astros have protected all the players they are going to protect for the upcoming Rule 5 draft. And the players added to the 40-Man roster are:
Jose Cisnero, Jarred Cosart, Robbie Grossman, Chia-Jen Lo, Brett Oberholtzer, Ross Seaton and Jonathan Villar.
We also find that the Astros lost reliever Mickey Storey to the Yankees in a waiver claim, and Scott Moore has been outrighted off the 40-Man Roster - he can elect free agency, or accept the assignment to Oklahoma City.
The 40-Man Roster now stands at 36 players, giving the Astros some flexibility as they explore trades and the Rule 5 draft. McTaggart has some reaction from those added to the 40-Man, as well as Jeff Luhnow. Moore, for one, isn't happy:
"I'm a little bit surprised by the decision, and I'm not sure if I would come back yet."
Among the surprises who were not protected were Marc Krauss, Josh Zeid, and Jason Stoffel. Luhnow says:
"We're at the point now as an organization (where) we are starting to build some depth, so you are risking losing some guys..."
The Chron's Brian Smith says the Astros have several players drawing interest from other clubs and while talks continue, nothing is imminent. He also added that the Astros aren't likely to lock up any arbitration players with long-term deals, preferring the financial flexibility that comes with going year-to-year. So, sorry Jed Lowrie, Wesley Wright, and Bud Norris.
Jose Cisnero, Jarred Cosart, Robbie Grossman, Chia-Jen Lo, Brett Oberholtzer, Ross Seaton and Jonathan Villar.
We also find that the Astros lost reliever Mickey Storey to the Yankees in a waiver claim, and Scott Moore has been outrighted off the 40-Man Roster - he can elect free agency, or accept the assignment to Oklahoma City.
The 40-Man Roster now stands at 36 players, giving the Astros some flexibility as they explore trades and the Rule 5 draft. McTaggart has some reaction from those added to the 40-Man, as well as Jeff Luhnow. Moore, for one, isn't happy:
"I'm a little bit surprised by the decision, and I'm not sure if I would come back yet."
Among the surprises who were not protected were Marc Krauss, Josh Zeid, and Jason Stoffel. Luhnow says:
"We're at the point now as an organization (where) we are starting to build some depth, so you are risking losing some guys..."
The Chron's Brian Smith says the Astros have several players drawing interest from other clubs and while talks continue, nothing is imminent. He also added that the Astros aren't likely to lock up any arbitration players with long-term deals, preferring the financial flexibility that comes with going year-to-year. So, sorry Jed Lowrie, Wesley Wright, and Bud Norris.
Losing on Purpose
Dave Cameron, over at Fangraphs, offered some thoughts on the idea of rebuilding, in light of the Marlins latest sell-off. As is so often the case recently when discussing bad teams, the Astros came up. Dave wasn't exactly critical, but he did note the effect the consistent losing has had on Astros' attendance.
From 2007 to 2010, the Astros averaged 77 wins per season and never finished higher than third in the standings. During those four years, their attendance dwindled from 3.0 million fans per season to 2.3 million fans per season. In the last two seasons, where they’ve averaged 55 wins per season, their attendance went from 2.3 million down to 1.6 million. In other words, they lost as many fans in two years of being atrocious as they did in four years of being mediocre.
From 2007 to 2010, the Astros averaged 77 wins per season and never finished higher than third in the standings. During those four years, their attendance dwindled from 3.0 million fans per season to 2.3 million fans per season. In the last two seasons, where they’ve averaged 55 wins per season, their attendance went from 2.3 million down to 1.6 million. In other words, they lost as many fans in two years of being atrocious as they did in four years of being mediocre.
I noted a similar effect on the TV ratings yesterday in my post about Deshaies. People simply aren't tuning in or going to games to see a 100+ loss team.
Obviously, the Marlins' situation and the Astros' situation are vastly different. Poor choices led the Astros to a point where tearing down was the only legitimate option. But I think its important to remember that the casual fan doesn't care that Jim Callis rated the Astros' top 10 prospect list #3 in the AL, or that the Astros had three players in the AFL Rising Stars game this year. They want to go to a game to see the home town win, and if there is less than a 35% chance of that happening, they just won't go. Dave's right, the calculus is not merely playoffs v. no playoffs, and losing really takes its toll on a fan base.
The Astros primary goal right now has to be making themselves truly competitive in a couple years, but if they maintain that goal while making the team marginally better next year, it will help them in the long run. If 2013 is as rough as 2012, or worse, the fans will continue to stay away. The Astros better hope that when the rebuilding comes to fruition, they start to come back.
The Astros primary goal right now has to be making themselves truly competitive in a couple years, but if they maintain that goal while making the team marginally better next year, it will help them in the long run. If 2013 is as rough as 2012, or worse, the fans will continue to stay away. The Astros better hope that when the rebuilding comes to fruition, they start to come back.
A hilariously sad email from Astros' Customer Service
Citizen Brian Stevenson tweeted the following today, an email "communication" between the Astros' Customer Service department and himself:
Good God.
Monday, November 19, 2012
Astros not the only team kicking Berkman's tires
I'm already tired of this. Mark Berman talked to Lance Berkman (no relation) who said that a number of teams were checking in on Berkman. Among the teams not named "Astros:" Rays, Red Sox, and Phillies.
If Berkman is interested in staying close to home, then the Astros are obviously in the lead. If he's interested in winning, then obviously any of the other three teams are going to be better bets for Berkman (how's that for alliteration). If it turns into a bidding war, I'd expect the Astros to be out, but who the hell knows?
If Berkman is interested in staying close to home, then the Astros are obviously in the lead. If he's interested in winning, then obviously any of the other three teams are going to be better bets for Berkman (how's that for alliteration). If it turns into a bidding war, I'd expect the Astros to be out, but who the hell knows?
Why the Outrage?
So, as noted in this morning's link dump, Jim Deshaies interviewed with the Cubs this weekend. News of that interview immediately created anger and outrage throughout Astros fandom. A lot of this outrage came before any facts were known, which is so unlike the internet. But even after Dave Barron provided more details, the outrage only abated somewhat. So, I honestly want to know: Why are we so angry at the Astros for something they don't want to happen, and which has not happened yet?
I get from that article that the Astros want JD back, and he wanted to come back as well. Now, several people have argued that they should have locked him up sooner, and maybe that's the case, but was anybody really expecting the Cubs, or any other team for that matter, to come calling? It seems like this was rather out of the blue for everyone. According to the article, JD's contract expires in February. From the sound of it, both sides fully expected to extend the contract well before then. However, when the Cubs called, he decided, in his own words "Well, that's worth talking about."
And can you blame him? I mean, I watch Astros games. You likely watch Astros games. But the product they put on the field last year resulted in the lowest ratings in the majors. Dare we forget the mid September .05 rating the Astros pulled in? The Cubs bring a bigger market, more eyeballs, and more national exposure. We all know that Deshaies is talented enough for bigger and better things. If he decides that he wants to move on, are we going to begrudge him that?
That's not to say he will move on. I sincerely hope that he stays on. The Cubs would be foolish not to offer him the job, but if they do, I hope the Astros give him what he needs to stay. He makes some miserable play on the field enjoyable. However, if he does leave, I will still be an Astros fan. I will still watch whoever they get to replace him. Losing someone who makes miserable baseball enjoyable will sting less when the the baseball is no longer miserable to watch. On that front, I continue to believe the Astros are on the right path.
I get from that article that the Astros want JD back, and he wanted to come back as well. Now, several people have argued that they should have locked him up sooner, and maybe that's the case, but was anybody really expecting the Cubs, or any other team for that matter, to come calling? It seems like this was rather out of the blue for everyone. According to the article, JD's contract expires in February. From the sound of it, both sides fully expected to extend the contract well before then. However, when the Cubs called, he decided, in his own words "Well, that's worth talking about."
And can you blame him? I mean, I watch Astros games. You likely watch Astros games. But the product they put on the field last year resulted in the lowest ratings in the majors. Dare we forget the mid September .05 rating the Astros pulled in? The Cubs bring a bigger market, more eyeballs, and more national exposure. We all know that Deshaies is talented enough for bigger and better things. If he decides that he wants to move on, are we going to begrudge him that?
That's not to say he will move on. I sincerely hope that he stays on. The Cubs would be foolish not to offer him the job, but if they do, I hope the Astros give him what he needs to stay. He makes some miserable play on the field enjoyable. However, if he does leave, I will still be an Astros fan. I will still watch whoever they get to replace him. Losing someone who makes miserable baseball enjoyable will sting less when the the baseball is no longer miserable to watch. On that front, I continue to believe the Astros are on the right path.
That Moment When
We here at Astros County are trying to figure out ways to make the off-season pass. And "watching football," and "spending time with family" just isn't cutting it. So we're proud to start a series written by you, dear reader, entitled "That Moment When." We will provide prompts, and you write in with your story related to the Astros. We then publish it, and you live in blogger glory forEVER. Rules:
1) Email your submission to astroscounty (at) gmail.com
2) Since this is for a blog, all submissions must be typed while in your mother's basement, and pants-less.
3) Best submissions (no limit to the number) will be published at AC, with full credit given to you.
The first prompt of the off-season: That Moment When You Became an Astros Fan. Send us the story of when you knew that - for better or worse - you were an Astros fan.
Have at it!
1) Email your submission to astroscounty (at) gmail.com
2) Since this is for a blog, all submissions must be typed while in your mother's basement, and pants-less.
3) Best submissions (no limit to the number) will be published at AC, with full credit given to you.
The first prompt of the off-season: That Moment When You Became an Astros Fan. Send us the story of when you knew that - for better or worse - you were an Astros fan.
Have at it!
While You Were Drinking: Weekend Link Dump
Some fairly big news related to the Astros over the weekend - what do you miss?
Jim Deshaies might not be in the booth next year. TCB was all over this over the weekend, but news broke that Deshaies has interviewed to call games for the Cubs.
David Barron has an update from JD:
“I spoke with George at the end of the year, and he was reassuring and said we like your work and we want you back. It’s a case of getting the call from Chicago and them asking if I would be interested in the job and thinking, ‘Well, that’s worth talking about.’ ”
We are, of course, in agreement with all the outrage. For those of us who live out-of-market, Deshaies was enough to get us to watch 213 losses over the last two seasons. It's hard to believe that both JD and Bill Brown weren't locked up far enough in advance so that Deshaies didn't have a chance to talk to the Cubs.
It sounds as though the ball is in the Cubs court, and the Astros let that happen. Deshaies said he would wait to hear from the Cubs before deciding either way. Let's all hope that the Astros pull their heads out and keep Deshaies.
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Berkman in mix as DH.
We've talked about this before, but Lance Berkman is going to be a volunteer coach at Rice before determining if he wants to come back to baseball. He told McTaggart on Friday that he plans to play in 2013. He indicated to Crane that he would be interested in joining the Astros, and also had lunch with new manager Bo Porter, and characterized the nature of the conversation as "informal."
Berkman:
"There was absolutely no discussion of me signing a contract. They've said they have some interest, but so far, they haven't made an offer."
It's pretty clear that a 75% Berkman is better - on paper, anyway - than any 2013 option the Astros have right now. He brings familiarity to what will be a wholly unfamiliar situation, new uniforms, new league, new faces. Is he worth it? For $5m + incentives...maybe.
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Jim Callis ranks the Astros as one of the top three systems in the AL.
In his chat, Baseball America's Jim Callis has nice things to say about the Astros' system:
Based on our BA Grades, the AL's three best Top 10s belong to (in order) the Mariners, Rangers and Astros.
Jim Deshaies might not be in the booth next year. TCB was all over this over the weekend, but news broke that Deshaies has interviewed to call games for the Cubs.
David Barron has an update from JD:
“I spoke with George at the end of the year, and he was reassuring and said we like your work and we want you back. It’s a case of getting the call from Chicago and them asking if I would be interested in the job and thinking, ‘Well, that’s worth talking about.’ ”
We are, of course, in agreement with all the outrage. For those of us who live out-of-market, Deshaies was enough to get us to watch 213 losses over the last two seasons. It's hard to believe that both JD and Bill Brown weren't locked up far enough in advance so that Deshaies didn't have a chance to talk to the Cubs.
It sounds as though the ball is in the Cubs court, and the Astros let that happen. Deshaies said he would wait to hear from the Cubs before deciding either way. Let's all hope that the Astros pull their heads out and keep Deshaies.
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Berkman in mix as DH.
We've talked about this before, but Lance Berkman is going to be a volunteer coach at Rice before determining if he wants to come back to baseball. He told McTaggart on Friday that he plans to play in 2013. He indicated to Crane that he would be interested in joining the Astros, and also had lunch with new manager Bo Porter, and characterized the nature of the conversation as "informal."
Berkman:
"There was absolutely no discussion of me signing a contract. They've said they have some interest, but so far, they haven't made an offer."
It's pretty clear that a 75% Berkman is better - on paper, anyway - than any 2013 option the Astros have right now. He brings familiarity to what will be a wholly unfamiliar situation, new uniforms, new league, new faces. Is he worth it? For $5m + incentives...maybe.
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Jim Callis ranks the Astros as one of the top three systems in the AL.
In his chat, Baseball America's Jim Callis has nice things to say about the Astros' system:
Based on our BA Grades, the AL's three best Top 10s belong to (in order) the Mariners, Rangers and Astros.
FanGraphs Top 15 Prospects
The fine folks at FanGraphs have posted their top 15 Astros prospects list.
The top three are 1) Singleton, 2) Correa, 3)DeShields.
Just as an idea of how far the farm system has come in the past season, not included in the top 15 are Domingo Santana and Jonathan Villar.
The top three are 1) Singleton, 2) Correa, 3)DeShields.
Just as an idea of how far the farm system has come in the past season, not included in the top 15 are Domingo Santana and Jonathan Villar.
Friday, November 16, 2012
Tranzactionz
Alex Freedman chimes in with some old OKC RedHawks news:
Mike Hessman: signed with Reds
J.B. Shuck: signed with Angels
Brad Snyder: signed with Arizona
Brian Bixler: signed with Mets
Mike Hessman: signed with Reds
J.B. Shuck: signed with Angels
Brad Snyder: signed with Arizona
Brian Bixler: signed with Mets
Astros Inferno: Limbo
Last Friday we embarked on a journey through Dante's Inferno and how it is actually an allegory for being an Astros fan, beginning with the Overview and the Vestibule of Hell. We continue that today with the First Circle of Hell, Limbo.
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Limbo. A word with a definition most people think they know, but really do not. Limbo is the outer edge of hell, not some 50/50 land where you don't know where you are. In Dante's Limbo reside the unbaptized and those who did not accept Christ, but were not sinful. Here live the "guiltless damned" who are punished by residing in a sort of half-assed Heaven. They lacked the hope for something greater than they can conceive.
This can sum up the past six years of Astros fan-dom. We realize things will probably get better, but we can't put our collective finger on a year down the road when we think the Astros will be in the playoffs. It is greater than we can currently conceive.
Limbo is on the edge of "grief's abysmal valley," a place of sorrow without torment. Dante sees a seven-walled castle, where there are fresh meadows and plenty of shade. There is no punishment here, the atmosphere is peaceful, yet sad.
Here Dante is clearly talking about September 24, 2012, when 12,584 fans paid to watch the Astros host the Cardinals - the lowest attendance mark ever at Minute Maid Park.
No punishment. Fresh meadows. Plenty of shade. Peaceful. Sad.
---
Limbo. A word with a definition most people think they know, but really do not. Limbo is the outer edge of hell, not some 50/50 land where you don't know where you are. In Dante's Limbo reside the unbaptized and those who did not accept Christ, but were not sinful. Here live the "guiltless damned" who are punished by residing in a sort of half-assed Heaven. They lacked the hope for something greater than they can conceive.
This can sum up the past six years of Astros fan-dom. We realize things will probably get better, but we can't put our collective finger on a year down the road when we think the Astros will be in the playoffs. It is greater than we can currently conceive.
Limbo is on the edge of "grief's abysmal valley," a place of sorrow without torment. Dante sees a seven-walled castle, where there are fresh meadows and plenty of shade. There is no punishment here, the atmosphere is peaceful, yet sad.
Here Dante is clearly talking about September 24, 2012, when 12,584 fans paid to watch the Astros host the Cardinals - the lowest attendance mark ever at Minute Maid Park.
No punishment. Fresh meadows. Plenty of shade. Peaceful. Sad.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Might the Astros trade Bud or Harrell?
Ken Rosenthal wonders aloud this morning if the Royals are in the mood to pull a blockbuster deal, much like the Blue Jays and MarLOLins.
Rosenthal:
But many Royals fans are eager to see the team use its wealth of prospects to acquire quality veterans, just as many Jays fans wanted Anthopoulos to do the same before he made his monster deal.
Towards the end of the piece, Rosenthal mentions that the Astros could be looking to move someone like Bud Norris or Lucas Harrell - which wouldn't exactly qualify as a "blockbuster" deal, but would certainly make some waves here in Houston.
Questioning whether Luhnow would be willing to move either of them is useless - of course he would, provided the return was right. That said, Luhnow has indicated that they would likely need eight or nine starting pitchers to get through the season. Moving either of them would cut into that total (unless, of course, a starting pitcher is brought back from the Royals).
Luhnow and Moore also have a history together - even in the last 12 months, when the Astros traded Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois to Kansas City last March.
Both would be intriguing possibilities for trades. I thought Norris had turned a corner in 2011, his third season in the Majors, with his 3.77 ERA / 1.33 WHIP, and 176Ks in 186IP. But he regressed in 2012, allowing a 4.65 ERA / 1.37 WHIP (still just a few ticks above his "breakout" 2011). Or did he? Norris significantly outperformed in 4.02 FIP in 2011, while his ERA severely underperformed in 2012, with a 4.23 FIP. He's not going to get a lot of decisions (meaning, "Wins," of course), because he doesn't pitch all that deep into games, and the Astros just aren't all that good. So what Luhnow is trading is a pitcher who has a career 3.97 xFIP and will somewhat-consistently post 1.5 and 2.0 WAR. But he strikes out a decent number of guys, too - with a career 8.83 K/9.
Norris is arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2013, but won't be a free agent until 2016. You could probably pencil him in for around a $2m salary for 2013 - which, depending on Lowrie's arbitration number, could make him the highest-paid Astro next season.
Trading Lucas Harrell would be the ultimate buy-low/sell-high move for the Astros. Picked up (by Ed Wade, it should be noted) as a waiver claim in 2011, Harrell was the pitching surprise (good pitching surprise, anyway) of 2012 - a .500 pitcher on a miserable team. In his "rookie" season, Harrell threw 193.2IP, with a 3.76 ERA / 1.36 WHIP. He's a contact pitcher who performed almost exactly as his FIP indicated - a 3.75 FIP and 3.89 xFIP.
I have no idea what the Royals would be willing to give up to get Harrell or Norris - but "blockbuster" doesn't exactly come to mind.
(Please note: this was written before I saw SteveInLC's tweet on this very topic).
Rosenthal:
But many Royals fans are eager to see the team use its wealth of prospects to acquire quality veterans, just as many Jays fans wanted Anthopoulos to do the same before he made his monster deal.
Towards the end of the piece, Rosenthal mentions that the Astros could be looking to move someone like Bud Norris or Lucas Harrell - which wouldn't exactly qualify as a "blockbuster" deal, but would certainly make some waves here in Houston.
Questioning whether Luhnow would be willing to move either of them is useless - of course he would, provided the return was right. That said, Luhnow has indicated that they would likely need eight or nine starting pitchers to get through the season. Moving either of them would cut into that total (unless, of course, a starting pitcher is brought back from the Royals).
Luhnow and Moore also have a history together - even in the last 12 months, when the Astros traded Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois to Kansas City last March.
Both would be intriguing possibilities for trades. I thought Norris had turned a corner in 2011, his third season in the Majors, with his 3.77 ERA / 1.33 WHIP, and 176Ks in 186IP. But he regressed in 2012, allowing a 4.65 ERA / 1.37 WHIP (still just a few ticks above his "breakout" 2011). Or did he? Norris significantly outperformed in 4.02 FIP in 2011, while his ERA severely underperformed in 2012, with a 4.23 FIP. He's not going to get a lot of decisions (meaning, "Wins," of course), because he doesn't pitch all that deep into games, and the Astros just aren't all that good. So what Luhnow is trading is a pitcher who has a career 3.97 xFIP and will somewhat-consistently post 1.5 and 2.0 WAR. But he strikes out a decent number of guys, too - with a career 8.83 K/9.
Norris is arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2013, but won't be a free agent until 2016. You could probably pencil him in for around a $2m salary for 2013 - which, depending on Lowrie's arbitration number, could make him the highest-paid Astro next season.
Trading Lucas Harrell would be the ultimate buy-low/sell-high move for the Astros. Picked up (by Ed Wade, it should be noted) as a waiver claim in 2011, Harrell was the pitching surprise (good pitching surprise, anyway) of 2012 - a .500 pitcher on a miserable team. In his "rookie" season, Harrell threw 193.2IP, with a 3.76 ERA / 1.36 WHIP. He's a contact pitcher who performed almost exactly as his FIP indicated - a 3.75 FIP and 3.89 xFIP.
I have no idea what the Royals would be willing to give up to get Harrell or Norris - but "blockbuster" doesn't exactly come to mind.
(Please note: this was written before I saw SteveInLC's tweet on this very topic).
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Tuesday (afternoon) link dump
FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel reports in from the Astros' instructional team in Kissimmee. Lots of great info about Lance McCullers ("McCullers ultimate projection will depend on how he balances effort in his delivery and command"), Dayan Diaz, Nolan Fontana, Preston Tucker, and Domingo Santana.
The Astros have received calls about Jed Lowrie, but want to be overwhelmed by offers.
Oldstro Jason Bourgeois is a free agent.
The Astros have received calls about Jed Lowrie, but want to be overwhelmed by offers.
Oldstro Jason Bourgeois is a free agent.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Luhnow addresses off-season plans
Brian T. Smith, the new beat-writer for the Chronicle, has been tweeting out some notes from an interview with Jeff Luhnow from the GM Meetings. Among those notes:
*The Astros "have cooled" on pursuing Lance Berkman. He isn't sure if his knees will hold up (Berkman's, not Luhnow's).
*Luhnow's plan is to keep control of arbitration-eligible players, and not pursue any trades. He'll listen to offers, though.
*The free agents Luhnow is interested in will be the types looking for 1- and 2-year deals.
So that means that there:
1) Likely won't be deals for Bud Norris, Jed Lowrie, Wesley Wright, etc.
2) Will be no play for Josh Hamilton, thankfully.
*The Astros "have cooled" on pursuing Lance Berkman. He isn't sure if his knees will hold up (Berkman's, not Luhnow's).
*Luhnow's plan is to keep control of arbitration-eligible players, and not pursue any trades. He'll listen to offers, though.
*The free agents Luhnow is interested in will be the types looking for 1- and 2-year deals.
So that means that there:
1) Likely won't be deals for Bud Norris, Jed Lowrie, Wesley Wright, etc.
2) Will be no play for Josh Hamilton, thankfully.
Astros Inferno: Overview and the Vestibule of Hell
Good morning, Astros fans! Today we kick off a weekly series in which we make the analogy of being an Astros fan and Virgil's guided tour of Hell for Dante Alighieri. That's right, Astros fans, we have been through all nine levels of Hell as described in Dante's Inferno.
Let's start with the Overview and the Vestibule of Hell (summaries in italics are mine)...
Dante, "halfway along our life's path," finds himself lost in a dark wood in front of a mountain, beset by three beasts - a lion, a leopard, and a she-wolf. Thus, he cannot find the right way to salvation.
Of course Dante represents Astros fans. We were lost in a dark wood in front of Tal's Hill. Clearly the lion, leopard and she-wolf represents Drayton, Tal Smith, and Pam Gardner. Salvation was nowhere to be found.
Dante knows that he is ruining himself and is rescued by Virgil where the two of them begin their travels through the underworld. As they pass through the gate of Hell, Dante notices a sign in which the final line of the inscription is "Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate" or:
Before entering Hell, Dante and Virgil see the Uncommitted - those who did nothing good or evil. They are not in Hell, but they're not out of Hell, either. The punishment of the Uncommitted is to be pursued or stung by wasps or hornets that continually sting them, among other punishments.
Perhaps you remember this, from July 2, 2009:
Dante and Virgil reach the ferry that will take them to Hell. Charon - the pilot - doesn't want to let Dante enter because he is still alive. Dante faints and wakes up in Hell.
Next week: Limbo!
Let's start with the Overview and the Vestibule of Hell (summaries in italics are mine)...
Dante, "halfway along our life's path," finds himself lost in a dark wood in front of a mountain, beset by three beasts - a lion, a leopard, and a she-wolf. Thus, he cannot find the right way to salvation.
Of course Dante represents Astros fans. We were lost in a dark wood in front of Tal's Hill. Clearly the lion, leopard and she-wolf represents Drayton, Tal Smith, and Pam Gardner. Salvation was nowhere to be found.
Dante knows that he is ruining himself and is rescued by Virgil where the two of them begin their travels through the underworld. As they pass through the gate of Hell, Dante notices a sign in which the final line of the inscription is "Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate" or:
Before entering Hell, Dante and Virgil see the Uncommitted - those who did nothing good or evil. They are not in Hell, but they're not out of Hell, either. The punishment of the Uncommitted is to be pursued or stung by wasps or hornets that continually sting them, among other punishments.
Perhaps you remember this, from July 2, 2009:
Dante and Virgil reach the ferry that will take them to Hell. Charon - the pilot - doesn't want to let Dante enter because he is still alive. Dante faints and wakes up in Hell.
Next week: Limbo!
Thursday, November 8, 2012
"How this club will compete in its first season in the American League West, I have no earthly idea."
That wonderful, uplifting quote comes to us courtesy of Ken Rosenthal. Yes, there's nothing else to write about, so let's talk about how the Astros have become Major League Baseball's version of Andrew Jackson (he paid off the National Debt in 1835 - bet you didn't expect to read that on Astros County today, huh?) - don't owe anybody any money, and don't even care.
There's all sorts of hand-wringing about "How are they going to be competitive!" and there's the channeling of Derrick Goold. Rosenthal estimates an Opening Day payroll of around $30m. Luhnow says it might happen.
Rosenthal:
"But how this club will compete in its first season in the American League West, I have no earthly idea."
I don't understand what the hang-up is with this. Maybe it's because the Astros aren't in Michigan (eliminating Jon Morosi's, who is still drunk after the Tigers got swept, interest). Maybe Ken Rosenthal could wear a bow-tie that would support the Astros one Saturday in 2013.
How will the Astros compete in 2013? They won't. They're not supposed to. We've said it over and over again. 2012's 107 losses sucked approximately one loss more than 2011, and that's about it. 2012 was not about 2012, just as 2013 will not be about 2013. 2013 will be about 2014, 2015, and beyond. 2013 will be another year of development for the minor-leaguers (Singleton, Cosart, Springer, DeShields, etc.), and a year of getting familiar with Bo Porter, his methods, expectations, and his staff.
Think of how incredulous everyone will be if the Astros throw money at Josh Hamilton. "What for!" they'll yell. "They've got a bunch of raisin cakes down there running things!" they'll scream. (The Astros won't sign Josh Hamilton, by the way.) So, save your money, invest in scouting, sign international free agents, prepare for the draft, and build the war chest to pay good money to Jon Singleton - don't sign a free agent because it would be fun, and it would get Rosenthal off their backs.
2012 should have been a prime example about how the Astros don't give two craps about what anyone thinks - and I don't mean that in a bad way. This team does things the way they want to. Convention got them to 100 losses, being unconventional will get them to respectability quicker.
There's all sorts of hand-wringing about "How are they going to be competitive!" and there's the channeling of Derrick Goold. Rosenthal estimates an Opening Day payroll of around $30m. Luhnow says it might happen.
Rosenthal:
"But how this club will compete in its first season in the American League West, I have no earthly idea."
I don't understand what the hang-up is with this. Maybe it's because the Astros aren't in Michigan (eliminating Jon Morosi's, who is still drunk after the Tigers got swept, interest). Maybe Ken Rosenthal could wear a bow-tie that would support the Astros one Saturday in 2013.
How will the Astros compete in 2013? They won't. They're not supposed to. We've said it over and over again. 2012's 107 losses sucked approximately one loss more than 2011, and that's about it. 2012 was not about 2012, just as 2013 will not be about 2013. 2013 will be about 2014, 2015, and beyond. 2013 will be another year of development for the minor-leaguers (Singleton, Cosart, Springer, DeShields, etc.), and a year of getting familiar with Bo Porter, his methods, expectations, and his staff.
Think of how incredulous everyone will be if the Astros throw money at Josh Hamilton. "What for!" they'll yell. "They've got a bunch of raisin cakes down there running things!" they'll scream. (The Astros won't sign Josh Hamilton, by the way.) So, save your money, invest in scouting, sign international free agents, prepare for the draft, and build the war chest to pay good money to Jon Singleton - don't sign a free agent because it would be fun, and it would get Rosenthal off their backs.
2012 should have been a prime example about how the Astros don't give two craps about what anyone thinks - and I don't mean that in a bad way. This team does things the way they want to. Convention got them to 100 losses, being unconventional will get them to respectability quicker.
Spring Training Dates
The Astros will open Grapefruit League play on February 23, 2013 against the Phillies in Clearwater, and will end Spring Training on March 28.
Wait. Against the Phillies? We did it! Back in the NL! /pumps fist
Wait. Against the Phillies? We did it! Back in the NL! /pumps fist
MiLB's Organizational All-Stars
So Minor League Baseball posted the Astros' organizational All-Stars today, and it's well worth your time. You can click the link and read the full descriptions for yourselves, but here's the short list:
C: Tyler Heineman
1B: Jon Singleton
2B: Delino DeShields
3B: Matt Duffy
SS: Angel Sanchez
OF: George Springer, Domingo Santana, Brandon Barnes
DH: Erik Castro
RHP: Mike Foltynewicz
LHP: Brian Holmes
Closer: Jason Stoffel
C: Tyler Heineman
1B: Jon Singleton
2B: Delino DeShields
3B: Matt Duffy
SS: Angel Sanchez
OF: George Springer, Domingo Santana, Brandon Barnes
DH: Erik Castro
RHP: Mike Foltynewicz
LHP: Brian Holmes
Closer: Jason Stoffel
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Let's not mess with this Delmon Young cat
It's been rumored for a few days now that the Astros could be interested in acquiring Delmon Young, now that they need something called a "Designated Hitter."
Well, this morning Young pled (pleaded?) guilty to "aggravated harassment for shouting anti-Semitic slurs & tackling a man in New York City in April."
I'm all for giving a guy a second chance, but let's all just agree to give Delmon Young and his.267/.296/.411 line a pass.
Well, this morning Young pled (pleaded?) guilty to "aggravated harassment for shouting anti-Semitic slurs & tackling a man in New York City in April."
I'm all for giving a guy a second chance, but let's all just agree to give Delmon Young and his.267/.296/.411 line a pass.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Astros name David Stearns as Assistant GM
Brian McTaggart just tweeted that the Astros have named David Stearns as the new Assistant GM.
Stearns, 27, is a Harvard graduate, and was the Indians' Director of Baseball Operations - the youngest in his position in MLB. While with the Indians, Stearns focused on player contracts and analysis. Prior to joining the Indians, he spent three years with the Commissioner's office working on "salary arbitration, contracts, and was a member of MLB's negotiating team on the new basic agreement."
Stearns:
“At some point, [age] doesn’t matter a tremendous amount. It’s more about what you can bring to the table, if your skill set matches what is needed for the particular position.”
From the linked story, Stearns' college roommate:
“[Stearns] was always a very analytical guy, very rational, a real problem solver. He’ll approach any problem or challenge...with the same focus and sense of responsibility and really the same temperament.”
As Zach Levine astutely noted, the CEO, Assistant GM, Marketing VP, and Baseball Operations Coordinator are all Harvard-educated.
Stearns, 27, is a Harvard graduate, and was the Indians' Director of Baseball Operations - the youngest in his position in MLB. While with the Indians, Stearns focused on player contracts and analysis. Prior to joining the Indians, he spent three years with the Commissioner's office working on "salary arbitration, contracts, and was a member of MLB's negotiating team on the new basic agreement."
Stearns:
“At some point, [age] doesn’t matter a tremendous amount. It’s more about what you can bring to the table, if your skill set matches what is needed for the particular position.”
From the linked story, Stearns' college roommate:
“[Stearns] was always a very analytical guy, very rational, a real problem solver. He’ll approach any problem or challenge...with the same focus and sense of responsibility and really the same temperament.”
As Zach Levine astutely noted, the CEO, Assistant GM, Marketing VP, and Baseball Operations Coordinator are all Harvard-educated.
Jim Bowden's free agent "Best Fits"
So Jim Bowden posted on ESPN (Insider) a whole bunch of free agents, with contract predictions and "Best Fits." Which free agents are "best fits" for the Astros?
(Short answer: Not many places. Jeff Luhnow is heading to the GM meetings with the goal of "due diligence" and that's about it.)
Catcher Mike Napoli, with a (predicted) 3-year, $27m pricetag. Just as a reminder: This.
OF/DH Delmon Young, 2-year, $12m.
DH Lance Berkman, 1-year, $6m.
(Short answer: Not many places. Jeff Luhnow is heading to the GM meetings with the goal of "due diligence" and that's about it.)
Catcher Mike Napoli, with a (predicted) 3-year, $27m pricetag. Just as a reminder: This.
OF/DH Delmon Young, 2-year, $12m.
DH Lance Berkman, 1-year, $6m.
BP's Top Ten Astros Prospects
Up and at 'em today as AC recovers from a weekend in Oklahoma for a funeral...
Baseball Prospectus posted their Top 10 Astros prospects. You need a subscription to read the whole thing, but the free part they handed out is the list:
1. Jon Singleton
2. Carlos Correa
3. George Springer
4. Delino DeShields, Jr
5. Jarred Cosart
6. Jonathan Villar
7. Domingo Santana
8. Rio Ruiz
9. Lance McCullers
10. Mike Foltynewicz
A few things about this list:
*Four of this list (Singleton, Cosart, Villar, Santana) came to the Astros via trades with the Phillies - Singleton, Cosart, and Santana in the Pence trade, and Villar in the Oswalt trade.
*Correa, Ruiz, and McCullers were all drafted in 2012.
*Only Singleton and Cosart spent most of 2012 above High-A.
Tell me your feelings.
Baseball Prospectus posted their Top 10 Astros prospects. You need a subscription to read the whole thing, but the free part they handed out is the list:
1. Jon Singleton
2. Carlos Correa
3. George Springer
4. Delino DeShields, Jr
5. Jarred Cosart
6. Jonathan Villar
7. Domingo Santana
8. Rio Ruiz
9. Lance McCullers
10. Mike Foltynewicz
A few things about this list:
*Four of this list (Singleton, Cosart, Villar, Santana) came to the Astros via trades with the Phillies - Singleton, Cosart, and Santana in the Pence trade, and Villar in the Oswalt trade.
*Correa, Ruiz, and McCullers were all drafted in 2012.
*Only Singleton and Cosart spent most of 2012 above High-A.
Tell me your feelings.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Revisit a Random Game From 2000? Why Not?
Going through boxes of old stuff at my parents' house, I came across a scorecard from a random game from one of the worst seasons in Astros history...you know, until recently. It was not a particularly interesting game, and the Astros lost. There is almost no reason to revisit this game 12 years later. So, here we go.
June 6, 2000. Astros v. Twins. 7:05 at (still) Enron Field. Jose Lima v. Eric Milton.
Game started rather inauspiciously. Biggio led off with a single in the first, and was promptly bunted over to second by Julio Lugo. Really, Dierker? The first inning? He was promptly stranded. Eric Milton took an early exit and was replaced in relief in the 3rd by Johan Santana, in his rookie season. Milton was not exactly in trouble early, so I'm not sure why he left.
The Astros scored the first run of the game on a Biggio walk and Caminiti double in the 3rd inning. They would threaten again in the 6th, but stranded Bagwell on 3rd. Lima was dealing, and took a shutout into the 8th inning, where things began to unravel. After Jacque Jones and Midre Cummings reached with only one out, Lima was replaced by Yorkis Perez. After a fielder's choice by Christian Guzman allowed Jones to score, Perez gave up a double to Matt Lawton and a single to David Ortiz, allowing 2 more to come home. Everyday Eddie Guardado closed the Astros out in the 9th, and the Twins won 3-1.
Lima took the loss, falling to 1-8, with Perez earning the blown save. Santana got the win. It looks like it might have been Santana's first big league win, so that's kind of cool. I still left unhappy. The Astros fell to 21-36, on their way to a 90 loss season. I still don't understand how this team, with Biggio, Bagwell, Alou, Hidalgo (in his 44 HR season), Berkman, Caminiti, etc. lost 90 games. Maybe Lima at 1-8 had something to do with it. There would be better times ahead. There will now, too.
More 40 Man Roster Casualities
A new flurry of transactions brought the 40 man roster down to 31. Brian Bogusevic, J.B.Shuck, Chuckie Fick and Jorge de Leon were all outrighted. Bogie, Shuck and de Leon cleared waivers and are now free agents. Fick was sent to Triple A.
Bogusevic is by far the biggest name in that group. Drafted as a pitcher in 2005, he was converted to the outfield in 2008, and made the majors only 2 years later. He showed some power, and put up a 122 OPS+ in 2011. Ultimately, his strikeouts and low OBP did him in. He will always be a fan favorite, due to his unique story, and his memorable walk-off grand slam against the Cubs in 2011. At the end of the day, he was not going to be a part of the Astros future. Hopefully, he can catch on somewhere else.
Bogusevic is by far the biggest name in that group. Drafted as a pitcher in 2005, he was converted to the outfield in 2008, and made the majors only 2 years later. He showed some power, and put up a 122 OPS+ in 2011. Ultimately, his strikeouts and low OBP did him in. He will always be a fan favorite, due to his unique story, and his memorable walk-off grand slam against the Cubs in 2011. At the end of the day, he was not going to be a part of the Astros future. Hopefully, he can catch on somewhere else.
Friday, November 2, 2012
And then there were 35
The turnover of Houston's 40-man roster continues as Milwaukee this afternoon claimed RHP Arcenio Leon off waivers from the Astros.
It should come as no surprise that Luhnow & Co. were willing to let Leon go, as he's 26 years old and has shown very little beyond a good strikeout rate since he arrived at AA Corpus Christi back in 2010. The aforementioned K/9 was 9.2 in 151.1 IP (109 games) with Corpus, but pair that with a 5.00 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, and 1.725 WHIP, and it's not hard to see why he never got more than one game above AA.
Houston now has 35 men on their 40-man roster.
It should come as no surprise that Luhnow & Co. were willing to let Leon go, as he's 26 years old and has shown very little beyond a good strikeout rate since he arrived at AA Corpus Christi back in 2010. The aforementioned K/9 was 9.2 in 151.1 IP (109 games) with Corpus, but pair that with a 5.00 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, and 1.725 WHIP, and it's not hard to see why he never got more than one game above AA.
Houston now has 35 men on their 40-man roster.
Astros claim two more on waivers
Following the return of Jordan Schafer to the Barves, the Astros were far from done making moves yesterday. They claimed two players off waivers from the D-Backs - righty reliever Sam Demel and middle infielder Jake Elmore.
Demel, 27, has 72 games (63.2 IP) of big league experience spread across the last three seasons, with a cumulative 4.95 ERA, 6.8 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9. He spent most of 2012 in AAA Reno, posting a 4.07 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 in 56 games (66.1 IP) there.
Elmore, 25, is a 2B/SS who made his MLB debut in 2012, finishing the year with a .191/.247/.250 slash line, 0 HR, 7 RBI in 68 ABs with Arizona. He had a career year in AAA Reno, however, swinging to a .344/.442/.465 slash line, 1 HR, 73 RBI in 511 ABs while earning both mid-season and post-season PCL All-Star honors.
Beyond that, Houston also outrighted five pitchers to AAA Oklahoma City - Fernando Abad, Sergio Escalona, Edgar Gonzalez, Jose Valdez, and Kyle Weiland. This moves Weiland from the 60-day DL to the OKC roster, while the other four become unrestricted free agents.
After all was said and done, Houston's 40-man roster now stands at 36.
Demel, 27, has 72 games (63.2 IP) of big league experience spread across the last three seasons, with a cumulative 4.95 ERA, 6.8 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9. He spent most of 2012 in AAA Reno, posting a 4.07 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 in 56 games (66.1 IP) there.
Elmore, 25, is a 2B/SS who made his MLB debut in 2012, finishing the year with a .191/.247/.250 slash line, 0 HR, 7 RBI in 68 ABs with Arizona. He had a career year in AAA Reno, however, swinging to a .344/.442/.465 slash line, 1 HR, 73 RBI in 511 ABs while earning both mid-season and post-season PCL All-Star honors.
Beyond that, Houston also outrighted five pitchers to AAA Oklahoma City - Fernando Abad, Sergio Escalona, Edgar Gonzalez, Jose Valdez, and Kyle Weiland. This moves Weiland from the 60-day DL to the OKC roster, while the other four become unrestricted free agents.
After all was said and done, Houston's 40-man roster now stands at 36.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Schafer back to Barves
So the Braves, who traded Jordan Schafer and Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens, and...somebody else to the Astros for a season and a half of Michael Bourn (before Scott Boras goes and sells his soul), have now claimed Jordan Schafer off waivers.
This means that there are 39 players on the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft. The Astros are now in a position that other teams might make a run at the system in the December Rule 5 draft, so they'll need to protect some players to keep them from getting poached.
Oh, and, I'm pretty excited about not having the 26-year old (!) Schafer on the roster. He struck out 106 times in 360 PAs in 2012 on his way to a career-worst .591 OPS. The Astros were 27-55 when he started (they were 28-52 when he didn't. This is depressing, huh?), and in June he struck out 26 times in 23 games (80 PAs).
He just struck out too much, too often. Fare thee well, Jordan Schafer.
This means that there are 39 players on the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft. The Astros are now in a position that other teams might make a run at the system in the December Rule 5 draft, so they'll need to protect some players to keep them from getting poached.
Oh, and, I'm pretty excited about not having the 26-year old (!) Schafer on the roster. He struck out 106 times in 360 PAs in 2012 on his way to a career-worst .591 OPS. The Astros were 27-55 when he started (they were 28-52 when he didn't. This is depressing, huh?), and in June he struck out 26 times in 23 games (80 PAs).
He just struck out too much, too often. Fare thee well, Jordan Schafer.
Cosart Tabbed to Start AFL Rising Stars game
Per Keith Law, Jarred Cosart has been tabbed to start the AFL Rising Stars Game for the East. The game will be televised at 8:00 ET this Saturday on the MLB Network. Cosart has struggled so far in the AFL, going 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA. He has struck out 7 and walked 6 in 11 ip. Take those SSS numbers with a grain of salt.
UPDATE
Jon Singleton and George Springer have also been added to the East squad. Springer has put up a .268/.423/.463 line with 1 HR and 7 RBI. Singleton is at .250/.370/.485 with 3 HR and 7 RBI. My understanding is that the Rising Stars Game is based more on prospect status than performance in the AFL. This game will provide a good opportunity to get an early peak at the future of the Astros. Full rosters here
UPDATE
Jon Singleton and George Springer have also been added to the East squad. Springer has put up a .268/.423/.463 line with 1 HR and 7 RBI. Singleton is at .250/.370/.485 with 3 HR and 7 RBI. My understanding is that the Rising Stars Game is based more on prospect status than performance in the AFL. This game will provide a good opportunity to get an early peak at the future of the Astros. Full rosters here
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Astros won't pick up Chris Snyder's option
Continuing the trend of least-surprising news, Mark Berman talked to Chris Snyder's agent, who said that the Astros would rather pay him $500K to not play for them than to pay him $4m to wear a new Astros uniform.
Luhnow says Carlos Corporan will earn a shot at the C2 position.Which is fine. Corporan isn't yet arbitration-eligible, so he gets league-minimum, and in nine September appearances (seven starts), he hit .259/.286/.407. Is 29 PAs enough to make a judgment? Of course not, but the Astros won't be paying Chris Snyder $4m to do a worse job.
This doesn't mean that Snyder is out of the picture. Luhnow went on to say that he was interested in bringing Snyder back (or another catcher on a non-guaranteed deal) to compete for the backup job.
Whomever it is will be a short-term option. The Astros already have Chris Wallace (.724 OPS between OKC and Corpus), Jair Fernandez (.761 OPS at Corpus), and Ben Heath (.770 OPS at Lancaster) at High-A or above. Somebody has to pan out, right?
Luhnow says Carlos Corporan will earn a shot at the C2 position.Which is fine. Corporan isn't yet arbitration-eligible, so he gets league-minimum, and in nine September appearances (seven starts), he hit .259/.286/.407. Is 29 PAs enough to make a judgment? Of course not, but the Astros won't be paying Chris Snyder $4m to do a worse job.
This doesn't mean that Snyder is out of the picture. Luhnow went on to say that he was interested in bringing Snyder back (or another catcher on a non-guaranteed deal) to compete for the backup job.
Whomever it is will be a short-term option. The Astros already have Chris Wallace (.724 OPS between OKC and Corpus), Jair Fernandez (.761 OPS at Corpus), and Ben Heath (.770 OPS at Lancaster) at High-A or above. Somebody has to pan out, right?
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Matt Downs DFA'ed
Matt Downs, the man who played every position but catcher and center-fielder, was designated for assignment by the Astros today.
Downs was unable to build on his 2011 season, in which he hit .276/.347/.518 in 222 plate appearances (106 games), and hit .202/.253/.371 in 191 PAs (91 games) in 2012.
Brooks was quick to point out that Kyle Weiland is to be reinstated from the 60-Day DL soon - so DFA'ing Downs opens up a spot on the 40-man roster.
Downs was unable to build on his 2011 season, in which he hit .276/.347/.518 in 222 plate appearances (106 games), and hit .202/.253/.371 in 191 PAs (91 games) in 2012.
Brooks was quick to point out that Kyle Weiland is to be reinstated from the 60-Day DL soon - so DFA'ing Downs opens up a spot on the 40-man roster.
Strech Suba not renewed
The closest thing the Astros have to a cult hero might be Strech Suba, the Astros' bullpen assistant for 36 years. Well, that cult hero is gone. Deputy Phelps mentioned it yesterday (and we were all too busy to be able to post about it).
Now Brian McTaggart has confirmed that Suba will not have his contract renewed.
Pour one out for Stretch today.
Now Brian McTaggart has confirmed that Suba will not have his contract renewed.
Pour one out for Stretch today.
MLB not apparently all that sorry about leaking the new logo
Something I've been kicking myself about since last weekend, when Academy was selling the new merchandise, is that I didn't put it together that they had to get that merchandise from somewhere. And that somewhere, of course, was MLB. Well, MLB apologized to the Astros for sending out their new merchandise a week before the unveiling.
MLB:
"We apologize to the Houston Astros and their great fans for the premature, online availability of officially-licensed product featuring the new Astros logo. It is an error that should have been caught and an error we regret."
Well, apparently they don't regret it too much, because MLB Advanced Media has now updated player pages to feature the new cap and logo:
Personally, I like it. But for God's sake, MLB, get your crap together.
UPDATE: MLB tweeted this out from their normally-useless official account:
MLB Advanced Media, in advance of super-storm Sandy, inadvertently posted photos of players in their new uniforms on @Astros.com bio pages.
12:13pm Updated Update: MLBAM has changed the player pages back to the old color scheme.
MLB:
"We apologize to the Houston Astros and their great fans for the premature, online availability of officially-licensed product featuring the new Astros logo. It is an error that should have been caught and an error we regret."
Well, apparently they don't regret it too much, because MLB Advanced Media has now updated player pages to feature the new cap and logo:
Personally, I like it. But for God's sake, MLB, get your crap together.
UPDATE: MLB tweeted this out from their normally-useless official account:
MLB Advanced Media, in advance of super-storm Sandy, inadvertently posted photos of players in their new uniforms on @Astros.com bio pages.
12:13pm Updated Update: MLBAM has changed the player pages back to the old color scheme.
Free Agency (non) News
In the least surprising news of the off-season, the Astros won't be huge players in the free agent market, which opens Friday.
Luhnow:
"...By and large … I feel pretty good that even if we don’t go out and sign free agents, we have a team that’s going to be better next year.”
Noted in the linked article is that the only real decision the Astros have to make (which isn't much of a decision) is whether or not to buy out Chris Snyder.
There's a mutual option for $4m for 2013, but the Astros can buy him out for $500,000. Snyder, who "hit" .176/.295/.308 in 76 games for the Astros in 2012 for an OPS+ of 65. Only the Padres' Nick Hundley had a worse batting average among catchers with at least 200 PAs. And $4m isn't a good number for a player with -0.2 WAR. Obviously.
Luhnow:
"...By and large … I feel pretty good that even if we don’t go out and sign free agents, we have a team that’s going to be better next year.”
Noted in the linked article is that the only real decision the Astros have to make (which isn't much of a decision) is whether or not to buy out Chris Snyder.
There's a mutual option for $4m for 2013, but the Astros can buy him out for $500,000. Snyder, who "hit" .176/.295/.308 in 76 games for the Astros in 2012 for an OPS+ of 65. Only the Padres' Nick Hundley had a worse batting average among catchers with at least 200 PAs. And $4m isn't a good number for a player with -0.2 WAR. Obviously.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Dave Borkowski helped Mike Foltynewicz
Here's a nice little profile on Mike Foltynewicz from his hometown paper, in which he credits his 2012 success to pitching coach Dave Borkowski.
Foltynewicz:
Foltynewicz:
“We finally figured everything out. All the parts were clicking. Basically, my pitching coach and I sat down before the season and talked about everything. The mental part is big, getting prepared right before a game and getting prepared properly on the days leading up to your next start. We figured it out and I had one heck of a year.
Click the link for the whole story on strength and pitch selection.
Angels sign Angel Sanchez
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have signed long-time Houston Astro of Houston Angel Sanchez to a minor-league deal, meaning that Sanchez will be able to tell the Angels all of the Astros' secrets, and ensuring that he must be eliminated.
Not to be outdone with such a clever name signing, the Astros signed Astro McGillicuddy to a minor-league deal.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Academy awfully sorry for selling new Astros merchandise before the Astros unveiled it
So it kind of spilled earlier today that Topps had accidentally tweeted out a picture of the new logo. That sucked. But when fan @Astromo1977 tweeted a pic he took at a Houston-area Academy of some new merchandise, it got fishy.
Turns out, yep, Academy had started selling the new Astros merchandise before the Astros had unveiled it.
This prompted an apology from Academy which basically said, "Yeah - we kind of nutted that...sorry. Looking forward to the launch!"
Turns out, yep, Academy had started selling the new Astros merchandise before the Astros had unveiled it.
This prompted an apology from Academy which basically said, "Yeah - we kind of nutted that...sorry. Looking forward to the launch!"
Astros claim Che-Hsuan Lin
The Astros claimed former Red Sox OF Che-Hsuan Lin off waivers today, and designated Enerio Del Rosario for assignment in the corresponding move.
Lin, a 24-year old 6'0" 180lb RHB out of Taiwan, signed as an amateur free agent in 2007 with Boston. He spent most of 2012 with Triple-A Pawtucket, hitting .247/.323/.316, with 65K:42BB in 445 plate appearances. His minor-league best was in 2010, when at Double-A Portland, he hit .275/.386/.343, with 63K:72BB.
Enerio Del Rosario, a waiver claim made by Ed Wade from Cincinnati at the end of the 2010 season, had a 6.01 ERA / 1.84 WHIP in 75 appearances - all out of the bullpen - for the Astros. In 19IP for Houston in 2012, Del Rosario allowed 34H/19ER, 11K:7BB for a nice round 9.00 ERA / 2.16 WHIP.
Lin, a 24-year old 6'0" 180lb RHB out of Taiwan, signed as an amateur free agent in 2007 with Boston. He spent most of 2012 with Triple-A Pawtucket, hitting .247/.323/.316, with 65K:42BB in 445 plate appearances. His minor-league best was in 2010, when at Double-A Portland, he hit .275/.386/.343, with 63K:72BB.
Enerio Del Rosario, a waiver claim made by Ed Wade from Cincinnati at the end of the 2010 season, had a 6.01 ERA / 1.84 WHIP in 75 appearances - all out of the bullpen - for the Astros. In 19IP for Houston in 2012, Del Rosario allowed 34H/19ER, 11K:7BB for a nice round 9.00 ERA / 2.16 WHIP.
Logo Leak?
Sportslogos.net just posted an apparent leak of the Astros soon to be revealed new logo, as accidentally revealed by the Topps trading card company. Nothing real surprising as far as the logo goes, but between the doctored image that floated around a month ago and this, the official reveal November 2nd is shaping up to be a bit anti-climactic.
*Update* It seems the new logo can now also be found at local Academy stores.
*Update* It seems the new logo can now also be found at local Academy stores.
Should the Astros Pursue Otani and Do They Have a Chance?
The big news on the prospect front is that one of the top
prospects in Japan, Shohei Otani, has declared his intention to pitch in America. Although he
instructed Japanese teams not to draft him, he was selected by the Nippon Ham
Fighters in the first round. I’ve seen conflicting information on this, but it looks like he will be still be able to sign with an MLB club at any time, despite being drafted. As he is
not under contract with a Japanese team, he will not have to go through the
posting process that often drives the price up on Japanese stars. Should the
Astros pursue this intriguing talent? And do they have a chance of signing him?
According to available scouting reports, Otani is a tall, strong pitcher, who has been clocked in the
high 90’s with his fastball, with less refined offspeed offerings including a slider, splitter and
slow curveball. He has struggled significantly with his command. If he were in the MLB
draft, he would likely be a first round talent, but no sure thing. The Astros
need young pitching, and Luhnow has made it a point to stockpile as much first
round talents as possible, though any avenue available. I fully expect the
Astros to kick the tires on this high risk high reward signing.
In the most recent collective bargaining agreement, a cap
was placed on international bonuses. For the 2012-2013 signing period, the cap
was placed at $2.9 million for all teams. Penalties for exceeding that cap are harsh, but not
as harsh as the penalties for exceeding the draft pool. Exceeding the pool by
10-15% carries a 100% tax and a $500,000 limit on bonuses to any one player in
the next year signing period. Over 15%, the limit drops to $250,000. Depending
on how each team views the potential of Otani, this might not serve as a
deterrent for a large bonus. Jim Callis does not believe the cap will be a major factor in Otani's bonus.
Beginning in the 2013-2014 signing period, the cap is based on the previous season's record, and the Astros would have a distinct negotiating advantage with $4.7 million in available bonuses. As it
stands now, assuming Otani signs before July 2013, the playing field is
relatively level. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers have shown interest, and the
Rangers can use Yu Darvish as a recruiting tool. If the Astros believe Otani represents a
first round talent, I believe they should definitely pursue getting him into the system. I think they should be hesitant, however, to incur any penalties, particularly the year before their available bonus pool will increase. I don’t think
we should get our hopes up too high. What say you?
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Bogar turned down the Astros due to contract language
Jon Heyman is reporting that Tim Bogar turned down the Astros' Bench Coach job because they didn't want him interviewing for any other managerial openings.
Heyman:
Bogar is said to have turned down the offer to become the Astros' bench coach because Houston wanted it written into a multi-year offer that he couldn't interview for managerial jobs that might arise elsewhere, sources familiar with the situation say.
Luhnow didn't reply to Heyman's texts (plural), which only tells me that he's the right man for the job.
While it's odd that the stipulation would be written into the contract, I can understand it. The Astros are building for the long-term, and staff continuity is important. If a bench coach isn't interested in sticking around for a few years while the team completes its rebuild, then it's better to know now than to have to go through the process all over again next season.
Heyman:
Bogar is said to have turned down the offer to become the Astros' bench coach because Houston wanted it written into a multi-year offer that he couldn't interview for managerial jobs that might arise elsewhere, sources familiar with the situation say.
Luhnow didn't reply to Heyman's texts (plural), which only tells me that he's the right man for the job.
While it's odd that the stipulation would be written into the contract, I can understand it. The Astros are building for the long-term, and staff continuity is important. If a bench coach isn't interested in sticking around for a few years while the team completes its rebuild, then it's better to know now than to have to go through the process all over again next season.
What can Biggio expect from the BBWAA?
This winter will provide the best chance Astros fans have been waiting for since Nolan Ryan decided to wear a Rangers cap for all eternity - an Astros cap on a plaque at the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Craig Biggio's journey to baseball immortality will be tested for the first time this winter when the voting members of the Base Ball Writers Association of America get to stand on their soapboxes and vote on the eligible candidates, of which there are many.
The sanctimonious group will be judged fully in this space throughout December and early January when we're sure to get pissed off at somebody, but we can at least make some educated guesses as to what Biggio can expect from the BBWAA. Well, as close to an educated guess as you can get when trying to predict what a wholly unpredictable, asinine, holier-than-thou group of petty, vindictive voters will do.
Since 2000, there have been 184 players eligible in their first year of election. Only 24 received the 5% of the votes needed to remain on the ballot for a second year, but were not elected in their first year. Those players:
Roberto Alomar (2010), Jeff Bagwell (2011), Harold Baines (2007), Albert Belle (2006), Andre Dawson (2002), Juan Gonzalez (2011), Goose Gossage (2000), Orel Hershiser (2006), Barry Larkin (2010), Edgar Martinez (2010), Don Mattingly (2001), Willie McGee (2005), Fred McGriff (2010), Mark McGwire (2007), Jack Morris (2000), Rafael Palmeiro (2011), Tim Raines (2008), Ryne Sandberg (2003), Lee Smith (2003), Dave Stewart (2001), Alan Trammell (2002), Fernando Valenzuela (2003), Larry Walker (2011), and Bernie Williams (2012).
Now here's the thing about that list...
*Seven of the 24 received less than 10% of the vote (McGee, Gonzalez, Baines, Valenzuela, Stewart, Belle, and Williams).
*Nine more received between 10-30% of the vote (Palmeiro, Hershiser, Trammell, Walker, McGriff, Morris, McGwire, Raines, and Mattingly).
*So 16 players received less than 30% of the BBWAA's votes, and none of those 16 have been elected (yet, anyway).
*Of the eight players who got more than 30% of the vote in their first year of eligibility, five of them have since been elected to the HOF (Gossage, Dawson, Sandberg, Larkin, and Alomar), and the other three are Edgar Martinez, Jeff Bagwell, and Lee Smith.
We know what Craig Biggio has done. There's no doubt in Astros fans' eyes that Craig Biggio is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Twenty-eight players have racked up 3,000+ hits, and 24 of them are in the Hall of Fame. Who are the other four? Pete Rose (because he's a jackass), Derek Jeter (because he's still playing), Biggio, and Rafael Palmeiro (because he made a syringe-plugged ass of himself by wagging his finger at Congress before getting popped for PEDs - he got 12.6% of the vote in the 2012 election.). Furthermore, every eligible player with more than 2,900 hits is in the Hall of Fame.
We can look at Biggio's Similarity Scores and see that he is most similar to Hall of Famer Robin Yount, then - in order - future Room-of-Famer Derek Jeter (because a Hall isn't big enough to hold Derek Jeter's plaque), then Hall of Famers Joe Morgan, Paul Molitor, Roberto Alomar, and Cal Ripken.Well hey, this is interesting, because...
*Ten players since 2000 have been elected in their first year of eligibility: Wade Boggs (2005), Dennis Eckersley (2004), Rickey Henderson (2010), Tony Gwynn (2007), Paul Molitor (2004), Eddie Murray (2003), Kirby Puckett (2001), Cal Ripken (2007), Ozzie Smith (2002), and Dave Winfield (2001).
Molitor and Ripken - 4th- and 6th-most similar to Biggio were elected on their first ballot in 2004 and 2007, respectively, with 85.2% and 98.5%, also respectively. Robin Yount - the player assigned a value most similar to Biggio's career - was elected on his first ballot with 77.5% of the vote in 1999.
These are all facts. But the BBWAA isn't big on facts, and we can't count on them to agree on an AL MVP. I would like to think that we can count on the BBWAA to agree that Biggio belongs in the same company as Paul Molitor, Roberto Alomar, Robin Yount, and Ozzie Smith. But that may be as silly as hoping that everyone on Twitter agrees with your personal political views. (Timely simile!)
There is also a significant chance that many voters are going to write this election off, as it includes Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens, and Mike Piazza. Ask a lazy sportswriter to pass immortal judgment on this list and they'll happily write a column about the Sanctity of the Hall of Fame and the Purity of The Game. And then they won't vote for anybody, because they JUST DON'T KNOW EVERYTHING. Or, more accurately, they knew enough to not say anything, and now they can play the Saint card in the easiest December column for a Base Ball writer.
Or, there could be the counterpoint, where the BBWAA looks at the ballot, gets disgusted by the Usual Suspects and sees Biggio for what he is: A great player who has not been linked to PEDs. Tricky. If you asked me to put a range on where I would expect Biggio to land in his first election, I would give you two numbers:
Best-case scenario: A Yount-ian 75-80%.
Worst-case scenario: A Sandberg-ian 45-55%.
Thoughts?
Craig Biggio's journey to baseball immortality will be tested for the first time this winter when the voting members of the Base Ball Writers Association of America get to stand on their soapboxes and vote on the eligible candidates, of which there are many.
The sanctimonious group will be judged fully in this space throughout December and early January when we're sure to get pissed off at somebody, but we can at least make some educated guesses as to what Biggio can expect from the BBWAA. Well, as close to an educated guess as you can get when trying to predict what a wholly unpredictable, asinine, holier-than-thou group of petty, vindictive voters will do.
Since 2000, there have been 184 players eligible in their first year of election. Only 24 received the 5% of the votes needed to remain on the ballot for a second year, but were not elected in their first year. Those players:
Roberto Alomar (2010), Jeff Bagwell (2011), Harold Baines (2007), Albert Belle (2006), Andre Dawson (2002), Juan Gonzalez (2011), Goose Gossage (2000), Orel Hershiser (2006), Barry Larkin (2010), Edgar Martinez (2010), Don Mattingly (2001), Willie McGee (2005), Fred McGriff (2010), Mark McGwire (2007), Jack Morris (2000), Rafael Palmeiro (2011), Tim Raines (2008), Ryne Sandberg (2003), Lee Smith (2003), Dave Stewart (2001), Alan Trammell (2002), Fernando Valenzuela (2003), Larry Walker (2011), and Bernie Williams (2012).
Now here's the thing about that list...
*Seven of the 24 received less than 10% of the vote (McGee, Gonzalez, Baines, Valenzuela, Stewart, Belle, and Williams).
*Nine more received between 10-30% of the vote (Palmeiro, Hershiser, Trammell, Walker, McGriff, Morris, McGwire, Raines, and Mattingly).
*So 16 players received less than 30% of the BBWAA's votes, and none of those 16 have been elected (yet, anyway).
*Of the eight players who got more than 30% of the vote in their first year of eligibility, five of them have since been elected to the HOF (Gossage, Dawson, Sandberg, Larkin, and Alomar), and the other three are Edgar Martinez, Jeff Bagwell, and Lee Smith.
We know what Craig Biggio has done. There's no doubt in Astros fans' eyes that Craig Biggio is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Twenty-eight players have racked up 3,000+ hits, and 24 of them are in the Hall of Fame. Who are the other four? Pete Rose (because he's a jackass), Derek Jeter (because he's still playing), Biggio, and Rafael Palmeiro (because he made a syringe-plugged ass of himself by wagging his finger at Congress before getting popped for PEDs - he got 12.6% of the vote in the 2012 election.). Furthermore, every eligible player with more than 2,900 hits is in the Hall of Fame.
We can look at Biggio's Similarity Scores and see that he is most similar to Hall of Famer Robin Yount, then - in order - future Room-of-Famer Derek Jeter (because a Hall isn't big enough to hold Derek Jeter's plaque), then Hall of Famers Joe Morgan, Paul Molitor, Roberto Alomar, and Cal Ripken.Well hey, this is interesting, because...
*Ten players since 2000 have been elected in their first year of eligibility: Wade Boggs (2005), Dennis Eckersley (2004), Rickey Henderson (2010), Tony Gwynn (2007), Paul Molitor (2004), Eddie Murray (2003), Kirby Puckett (2001), Cal Ripken (2007), Ozzie Smith (2002), and Dave Winfield (2001).
Molitor and Ripken - 4th- and 6th-most similar to Biggio were elected on their first ballot in 2004 and 2007, respectively, with 85.2% and 98.5%, also respectively. Robin Yount - the player assigned a value most similar to Biggio's career - was elected on his first ballot with 77.5% of the vote in 1999.
These are all facts. But the BBWAA isn't big on facts, and we can't count on them to agree on an AL MVP. I would like to think that we can count on the BBWAA to agree that Biggio belongs in the same company as Paul Molitor, Roberto Alomar, Robin Yount, and Ozzie Smith. But that may be as silly as hoping that everyone on Twitter agrees with your personal political views. (Timely simile!)
There is also a significant chance that many voters are going to write this election off, as it includes Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens, and Mike Piazza. Ask a lazy sportswriter to pass immortal judgment on this list and they'll happily write a column about the Sanctity of the Hall of Fame and the Purity of The Game. And then they won't vote for anybody, because they JUST DON'T KNOW EVERYTHING. Or, more accurately, they knew enough to not say anything, and now they can play the Saint card in the easiest December column for a Base Ball writer.
Or, there could be the counterpoint, where the BBWAA looks at the ballot, gets disgusted by the Usual Suspects and sees Biggio for what he is: A great player who has not been linked to PEDs. Tricky. If you asked me to put a range on where I would expect Biggio to land in his first election, I would give you two numbers:
Best-case scenario: A Yount-ian 75-80%.
Worst-case scenario: A Sandberg-ian 45-55%.
Thoughts?
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