Friday Morning Hot Links

Welcome to your second weekend as reigning World Series champs. What are you doing to make someone else feel badly about their favorite team?

*Brian McTaggart has a rundown of what the Astros need going in to 2018. The biggest flaw? The bullpen, of course. McTaggart's likeliest additions: Mike Minor, Tony Watson, Boone Logan - all lefty relievers.

Mike Minor declined his option with the Royals, so he's a free agent this winter. He had a 2.55 ERA/2.62 FIP to go along with striking out 10.2 batters/9 innings, and he's predominantly a fastball/slider guy who saw his 91.7mph average fastball jump to 94.9mph in 2017.

Tony Watson, he of the National League Champion Dodgers, had more limited success in 2017. Between the Pirates and the Dodgers, Watson posted a 3.38 ERA/4.45 FIP with a 15% HR/FB rate, which doesn't factor in to his abnormally-high .309 BABIP (he had a career .261 BABIP allowed).

Boone Logan's $7m option was declined by the Indians last week thanks to concerns over his shoulder, which limited him to 21IP in 2017.

Minor is going to be the highest-paid of the three, and the other two would automatically get the Charlie Morton treatment from fans (oh wow he wasn't great/was injured now the Astros are going to turn him into a soul-eating machine!) We should be careful with thoughts like those. They're dangerous.

*Here's Jon Heyman's predictions (matched up against an expert's predictions) for the contracts of the Top 80 free agents this offseason.

*Random Astros fact of the day:
Jose Altuve has accumulated 26.2 fWAR in 982 career games, good enough for 10th all-time among batters in franchise history. He's played about 600 fewer games than 9th on the list, Terry Puhl, and is just 0.6 fWAR behind him. Altuve's 7.5 fWAR season ranks 8th among Astros batters all-time, and was just the 11th 7+ fWAR for a batter in franchise history.

*Jose Altuve and George Springer won AL Silver Slugger awards last night. Well, they won them during the season, of course, but come on you know what I mean. It's Altuve's 4th-straight Silver Slugger, and Springer's first.

*Tom Verducci: How the Astros mastered applying their pitching data, with great looks into McHugh, McCullers, Peacock, and Morton.

*Wednesday Jeff Sullivan noted that the Astros were the beneficiaries of the worst called ball of the season. Yesterday he noted that the Astros threw the worst called strike of the season. We should have known all along this was our year.

*Joe Musgrove visited the DeBakey VA Medical Center yesterday in honor of Veterans Day.

*KPRC interviewed Jeff Luhnow yesterday. Luhnow, on what needs to happen this off-season:
...There's not any major surgery here. This team is good enough to go out and repeat just as-is, so we're going to keep working at it, but we're pretty excited about what the prospects are for next year.

*If the Astros sign a player who received a Qualifying Offer, they will forfeit their 3rd-highest pick in the 2018 draft.

*The Paul Wall/Johnny Dang grills are pretty legit.

*Chronicle photographer Karen Warren picked her favorite photos of the season.

*The Astros have the smallest number of minor-league free agents in baseball, with seven.

*So there was a men's only gala (*eyes roll out of head*) at the Museum of Fine Arts, Houston last night and a server bumped into a guy who dropped the World Series trophy. Although, if you're going to damage an artifact, MFA Houston is probably a good place to do it.

*Mike Fiers was inducted into the Nova Southeastern University Hall of Fame last night.

Much love @JoseAltuve27!!! #MVP pic.twitter.com/uEa1tLd1Ux

— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) November 10, 2017

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros put up a 5-spot on Sonny Gray in the 1st inning last night and rode it out to an 8-4 win over Oakland. Gray needed 38 pitches to get through the 1st as the Astros sent 10 men to the plate, including George Springer and his 8th leadoff homer of the season. The MLB record for leadoff homers in a season is 13, by Alfonso Soriano. Reddick, on Springer:
It's special to hit behind that guy. Eight leadoff homers, 21 homers out of the leadoff spot, you just don't see that a whole lot. It makes you wonder what he would do out maybe in the three-, four-hole in this lineup. But you really can't move him. 

The average leadoff hitter in baseball (including Springer) is hitting .261/.330/.419. Springer is hitting .284/.356/.567.

*Hinch:
Our at-bats were exceptional. Springer sets the tone with the big home run, and then we continued to do some positive things against [Gray] and put up positive at-bats. 

For all the damage the Astros did against Sonny Gray in the 1st, they didn't get a whole lot more until he left the game. Consider:
Gray, 1st inning: 38 pitches, 5H/5ER, 0K:2BB
Gray, 2nd-5th: 70 pitches, 2H/0ER, 5K:2BB, HBP

*Gray, on his start:
It has been one inning for numerous starts now where things kind of escalate. I'm gonna have to figure this thing out. Whether it's getting off the mound and slowing myself down, I've gotta figure out a way to shut the inning down when I get two outs. 

*Frankie Tuesday threw 5.2IP, 6H/3ER, 4K:3BB for his second ML win in two starts, holding the A's to an 0x6 w/RISP with him on the mound. Within that link we find that Martes could be optioned back to Fresno when McCullers comes off the DL on Saturday, or the Astros could place Brad Peacock on paternity leave and let Martes throw in his spot on Sunday.

*Luke Gregerson faced three batters and struck them all out.

*Astros are 6-1 against Oakland in 2017, and haven't lost in Oakland since July 19, 2016.

*Houston is 24-10 against the AL West.

*Alex Bregman's last seven PAs (most recent to previous): Out, double, walk, HBP, single, double, double.

*Hinch told 790 that Charlie Morton is throwing mid-90s. He'll start for Fresno on Thursday and throw 2-3IP.

*If the Astros have "any opening whatsoever," they're bringing back Derek Fisher

*Wall Street Journal: The Astros don't like strikeouts anymore

*Tom Verducci has a good piece on the Astros' trade needs and a couple of good stories about how the Astros landed David Paulino and Francis Martes. Verducci:
Yes, it will hurt Houston to shoot high. But the time for bargain shopping is over. The Astros already know the question they face next month, and it is the same question the Cubs faced last July: If not now, when?

*What's it like to be Latino in MLB? This is a must-read.

*Hardball Times: Examining what Cuban League stats actually mean

*Patrick Hruby in Vice: The plot to disrupt the NCAA with a pay-for-play HBCU basketball league

Tom Verducci on Biggio's HOF chances

Tom Verducci took a (very) cursory glance at Biggio's career, and assesses his Hall of Fame chances. Click the link for the full write-up, but your money quote is:

It's a close call, but if he does have to wait, it won't be for long.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/11/30/hall-of-fame-jack-morris-craig-biggio-curt-schilling/index.html#ixzz2DjSpNALK

It's a close call, but if he does have to wait, it won't be for very long.

It's a close call, but if he does have to wait, it won't be for long.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/11/30/hall-of-fame-jack-morris-craig-biggio-curt-schilling/index.html#ixzz2DjSpNALK

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/11/30/hall-of-fame-jack-morris-craig-biggio-curt-schilling/index.html#ixzz2DjSpNALK

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/11/30/hall-of-fame-jack-morris-craig-biggio-curt-schilling/index.html#ixzz2DjSpNALK

It's a close call, but if he does have to wait, it won't be for long.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/11/30/hall-of-fame-jack-morris-craig-biggio-curt-schilling/index.html#ixzz2DjSpNALK

It's a close call, but if he does have to wait, it won't be for long.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/11/30/hall-of-fame-jack-morris-craig-biggio-curt-schilling/index.html#ixzz2DjSpNALK

Astros a Winter Meetings "loser"

So saith Tom Verducci:

The Angels and Rangers are so far out in front of the Athletics, Mariners and Astros (their AL West rivals beginning in 2013) that those clubs can't delude themselves into pretending to be contenders. The Athletics need the San Jose money more than ever, the Mariners may have to re-assess keeping Felix Hernandez out of any trade talks and the Astros will long for the good old days of the friendly NL Central.

This seems silly.

So who's grumbling in Houston?

In Tom Verducci's new column on realignment, we see that some NL Central owners have been a little fussy about playing in a six-team division:

NL Central owners privately have been complaining for years about the inequity of playing in a six-team division (as opposed to only four teams in the AL West), and that grumbling has increased with the ownership change in Houston. The Astros have no natural or regional rival within their division -- just as the Rangers have no such rival in the AL West. Pairing them in a division makes sense.

What's unclear is just whom is doing the grumbling? The other five owners, or the Whooping Cranes?

Verducci choke slams the Astros

Tom Verducci brings it to the Astros today:

The Houston Astros are the official winners of the title of First Team in Trouble. Could the season have begun any worse for a team that lost 88 games last year and has lost half a million paying customers in two years? The Astros were swept at home by the Giants. How ugly was it? Houston was outscored 18-6, drew only two walks while striking out 22 times, never held a lead, never hit a home run, and lost reliever Sam Gervacio to the disabled list, where he joined first baseman Lance Berkman.

You say it has to get better? You haven't checked their schedule or their roster. Houston plays its next 12 games against the Phillies, Cardinals, Cubs and Marlins, completing a welcome-to-2010 opening sequence of 15 straight games against teams that won between 83 and 93 games last year. Its roster continues to be curiously overloaded with older players for a team that is not a contender. Of the 23 players used in the Giants series, 16 are in their 30s and only two are younger than 27: Chris Johnson and J.R. Towles.

Brad Mills was an inspired choice as manager, a guy who ran an upbeat training camp. But he is being tested already: keep hope and faith alive for a little while longer, at least before schools get out in Houston for the prime drawing weeks when summer hits. Otherwise, as one former Astros coach might put it, it will get late early in Houston.

No, it's not "curious" how much the roster is full of older players. It's just that anybody who takes no more than a cursory glance at the Astros doesn't see that the Astros are full of no-trade clauses (except in the case of Moehler and Blum - which was just a terrible decision.) and Kaz Matsui. Want that "half a million" paying customer loss to double or triple? Then get rid of Berkman and Oswalt. Fair-weather Astros fans may be able to handle losing one or the other, but not both. Add to that the need to just let the contracts play out so that Heck's first two classes can advance, and the Astros won't be doling out contracts to big-name free agents who will clog up the ladder to the Majors.

Sabernomics tests the Verducci Effect

With Tom Verducci red-flagging Bud Norris with his Verducci Effect, Sabernomics' J.C. Bradbury attempts to test the theory.

I'm not going to pull the tables and math behind it - you should read it for yourself - but I'll pull the concluding quote:

So, where are we? The results do not bode well for the Verducci Effect. Pitchers who were predicted to decline actually improved. One potential problem with this study is that pitchers who pitched no innings at all in a season were not included; however, I think this bias is slight since this number is small, as even injured pitchers normally get in a few innings every season. Frankly, this is about as quick and dirty as you can get with a test; but, it’s a starting point, and I’d like to see others examine the effect further. While appreciate the intuition behind the Verducci Effect, I don’t see much evidence for it.

As if you didn't already know about the Verducci Effect

SI's Tom Verducci has red-flagged ten pitchers who risk injury. And of course, thanks to the increase in 2009 innings, Bud Norris is on this list.

The Crawfish Boxes have done some excellent work on this, so it's worth noting Verducci's explanation for Norris:

I hate to see guys with non-contenders getting pushed, as Kansas City and Pittsburgh used to do, but these guys have a common denominator: their previous workloads were depressed by injuries in minor league seasons. Carillo had Tommy John surgery, Norris suffered from an elbow strain (the Astros sent him to the AFL in 2008 and he still made the at-risk list) and Latos was bothered by oblique, ankle and shoulder injuries. The size of those increases remains significant.

Other GMs: Your GM is stupid

Tom Verducci on the reaction in the lobby on the Brandon Lyon deal:

Two different GMs were aghast to hear the Astros are paying $15 million over three years to reliever Brandon Lyon. Both of them had to have the numbers repeated to them twice, thinking surely they had misheard what will be one of the worst contracts of the winter.

Minor League IPs

The Orioles are limiting the number of innings pitched for their young'uns. Should the Astros do the same with pitchers under 25 years of age?

(Note: The Crawfish Boxes posted a similar story regarding Bud Norris)

Within that CB link, Tom Verducci explains:
The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it.

Alright, so let's take us a gander at this: Which pitchers age 25 and younger have already exceeded 30IP over 2008 totals?

Bud Norris
2007: 102.2 IP
2008: 80 IP
2009: 147.2 IP

Felipe Paulino
2007: 131 IP
2008: 0.2 IP
2009: 98 IP
It's worth noting that Paulino's IP jumped from 55 in 2005 to 126.1 in 2006. He threw 131 in 2007, and missed just about all of 2008. That's why he's listed - as a precautionary tale.

Danny Meszaros
2008: 26.1 IP
2009: 65.1 IP

David Duncan
2008: 55.1 IP
2009: 115 IP

Shane Wolf
2008: 58 IP
2009: 100.1 IP

As we get into Lexington, it's a little tricky, as many of the players were in short-season ball in 2008. Nevertheless:

Robert Bono
2007: 34.1 IP
2008: 75 IP
2009: 124.1 IP

Kyle Godfrey
2008: 30 IP
2009: 72.2 IP

Jordan Lyles
2008: 55.1 IP
2009: 133.2 IP

Again, this should be taken for what it's worth - pitchers advancing their careers (and some making an adjustment from short-season to a moderately full-out season). But it's still interesting.

Add Ken Davidoff and Tom Verducci to the list of media pleading with the Astros to sell

Ken Davidoff, of Newsday:
Owner Drayton McLane's outlook always fascinates me. He just doesn't believe in rebuilding, not after a series of second-half runs for contention (2004, 2005, 2006, 2008). That's why the 'Stros are only mildly dead. Loose change: Oswalt wishes he would qualify, but again, because of McLane's philosophy, Oswalt won't come cheaply. If Houston actually did become sellers, then Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada and LaTroy Hawkins all could have value.

Or Tom Verducci:
Think your team that stumbled through the first two months can still make the playoffs? Think again. While we all might easily remember the comeback of the 2005 Astros, who began June at 19-32 and wound up in the World Series, the reality is that teams that are bad for the first two months tend to remain bad.

Then some stats, courtesy of Verducci:
There have been 104 teams to make the playoffs in the 13 full seasons of the wild card era. Exactly three of them, or 2.9 percent, were worse than five games below .500 when June began. Here are the three outliers:

1. 2005 Astros (19-32 start; 89-73 final record).
2. 2007 Cubs (22-29; 85-77).
3. 2007 Yankees (22-29; 94-68).

-

So has the Astros' recent history clouded the vision of this franchise? Do you, on some level, hope the Astros completely nut this season to speed along a reframing of the franchise? Or are you okay with the "Hang on and Hope for the Best Until 2012" philosophy?

Tom Verducci has something nice to say

Credit Deputy Jason with coining a term now in national use:

Wandy Rodriguez entered this season as the definition of a nondescript pitcher: 37-40 after 111 major league games and a 4.79 ERA. Now he is a Cy Young contender with a 1.71 ERA who makes left-handers look sick. Nobody throws more curveballs than Magic Wandy, perhaps because there's not a better curve in the game right now.

Astros "in trouble"

Tom Verducci's column today discusses how baseball is a young man's game, noting a number of older veterans who remained unsigned, largely because of the ban on amphetamines. Then he throws the Astros directly in the path of the bus:

With not only steroid testing but also amphetamine testing in place, clubs no longer can count on players extending their prime years through their mid- and late-30s. The Astros are in trouble because they counted on way too many old players. The Yankees have scuffled because of injuries to old players. The Tigers have tried to remake themselves since the middle of last year by losing some old players (Kenny Rogers, Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez) and hoping others bounce back from slow starts (Ordonez, Placido Polanco). The Red Sox are swimming against the tide with four regulars age 33 or older (Ortiz, Jason Varitek, J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell). The bottom line, in case you weren't paying attention to the World Series last year: It's a young man's game.

Brutal.