The Hardball Times' Chris Jaffe has, for the last few years, posted a HOF ballot prediction piece - which is exactly what it sounds like.
Here's his 2013 piece, and what it means for Biggio/Bagwell.
So let's get down to it. Jaffe predicts:
Biggio - 76%
Bagwell - 52%
This is good news for Biggio who, under the prediction, would be elected by a very narrow margin. Not such good news for Jeff Bagwell, who would fall short for the third straight year.
How accurate might this be? Let Jaffe himself explain:
The track record is pretty good so far. Through five election cycles,
I’ve predicted vote totals 77 times and been within five points of the
result 64 times (and within one percentage point of the actual results
25 times) with an average margin of error of 3.3 percent.
On Biggio:
My hunch is that Biggio just skates in. Many voters see 3,000 hits and
just check his name. For half of the voters denying Clemens and Bonds,
Biggio is the easiest pick because he comes with that bright shiny
number: 3,000.
As it refers to Bagwell, his prediction of 52% is a four-point retreat from Bagwell's showing in 2012. Jaffe pegged Bagwell at 54% in 2012, two points shy of #5s actual results.
I'll allow the other guys to weigh in on their own, but I still Biggio coming in between 70-74% and Bagwell between 60-65%.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Monday, January 7, 2013
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Thoughts on Berkman's signing with Dallas
As you likely know (or maybe you don't, since the news broke around the time the Texans kicked off against the Bengals), Lance Berkman signed a 1-year, $10m deal with the Rangers, with a vesting option for 2014, or a $1m buyout. Some thoughts, if you don't mind...
*It is very hard not to take it personally, isn't it? After asking for a trade in 2010, he signed with the Cardinals, which didn't go over so well in Astros County. Having won a World Series with the Cardinals in 2011, he then signs his next contract with the Dallas Rangers. So in his last two decisions, Berkman has signed contracts with the two teams the majority of Astros fans hate the most.
*But wait! Berkman has nothing but nice things to say about the Astros:
The way that (the Astros) handled the negotiation and the way they communicated with me was second to none. I understood that they've got a lot of young guys they want to play and they are kind of on a rebuilding project. The fit wasn't exactly what either side needed, I guess you could say. I certainly have tremendous good will toward the Astros organization, and being a Houstonian I look forward to a continued relationship with those guys down the road.
Yeah, that's all well and good. When the Cardinals came to Houston for the first time in April 2011, Berkman didn't want to get booed. If, on March 31, Astros fans want to groan a little when he comes to the plate, that's fine with me.
*That said, would you really want the Astros to spend $10m on a 36-year old DH with a history of knee injuries who was limited to 97 plate appearances thanks to being placed on the DL four separate times in 2012? Sure, he would have sold some tickets, but Lance does not fit what the organization has been about for the last 13 months. The team is trying to get younger and cheaper, not older and more expensive.
*He has made $114m in his career and won a World Series. If he wants to play, and a team will pay him $10m, good for him. If the Astros made that deal, they'd be crucified in the press (and, likely, here.)
*I still don't like the Dallas Rangers.
Saturday, January 5, 2013
Minor-League Managers and Staff
Building on some news from yesterday, the Astros have announced minor-league staffing assignments.
Morgan Ensberg: Roving Instructor. "Will be with Lancaster for home games and scout the Cal League or serve as a roving instructor while Lancaster is on the road."
Adam Everett: Infield Instructor. Will shuttle between the Major-League team and minor-league infielders.
Vince Coleman: Outfielding/Baserunning Development Specialist, Quad Cities
Managers:
Oklahoma City: Tony DeFrancesco
Corpus: Keith Bodie (2012 Texas League Manager of the Year)
Lancaster: Rodney Linares (Returns for 2nd season with JetHawks)
Quad Cities: Omar Lopez (Greeneville's manager for 2011-12)
Tri-City: Ed Romero (manager of Greeneville in 2010
Greeneville: Josh Bonifay (managerial debut, Lexington's hitting coach in 2012)
GCL Astros: Edgar Alfonzo (previously GCL Astros' hitting coach)
DSL Astros: Johan Maya
Tom Lawless is an infield developmental specialist for OKC, and Mark Bailey will be the catching developmental specialist for Corpus. Former Gold-Glove OF Cesar Cedeno will be Bonifay's hitting coach in Greeneville.
Quad Cities GM Stefanie Brown:
"It's a somewhat unique set-up, but it shows the emphasis on development that is taking place throughout the Astros organization. We're excited about the staff that Houston has sent us in the first year of our affiliation with them."
Lance Berkman's last 24 hours
When the Astros signed Carlos Pena, that indicated to us (and most everyone else) that it meant there would be no return to Houston for Lance Berkman. That may not be the case.
With Pena holding down 1B/DH duties, where would Berkman fit? I can't imagine that the Astros are interested in signing a full-time DH, as it limits flexibility with the rest of the defensive positioning. The team is looking for maximum value, and if Berkman can't play in the field, then Bo Porter wouldn't be able to cycle players in and out of the DH spot to keep them fresh.
So, with the news that the Astros are interested in Berkman, it means that: (a) Berkman's knee is actually okay, or (b) Crane is pushing this move.
Let's rundown the last 15 hours of Berkman news, by team:
Astros: Luhnow was in talks with Berkman on Thursday and Friday. In the linked Mark Berman piece, Nolan Ryan says Berkman is still deciding if he wants to continue his career.
Rangers: The Rangers have an offer on the table of an undetermined length, but "two industry officials" say Berkman wants a two-year deal. The Rangers intend to primarily use him as a DH.
Rays, Phillies, Orioles, and Red Sox: Linked by former Astros writer Rafael Rojas Cremonesi (and Jon Heyman) as having interest in signing Berkman. Cremonesi says the Astros have extended an offer to Berkman, as well.
Yankees: The Yankees are interested, according to the New York Post, but writer Dan Martin says the team doesn't want to add 2014 payroll, indicating that they're looking for a 1-year deal.
Cardinals: Berkman told the Post-Dispatch that his daughters want to go back to St. Louis, but it won't happen. Derrick Goold says that Berkman is working out as though he'll be at Spring Training somewhere. On compensation, Berkman said:
"In a way they have to buy me out of retirement, and I know that sounds crass - I wish it didn't - but it's a big commitment...If I'm going to play, I'm going to give my heart and soul to the team. But if the carrot's not big enough, the mule isn't going to want to go."
So if we're ranking likely destinations for Berkman, I'd peg it as such:
1) Rangers
2) Astros
3) Yankees
4) Everyone else
Berkman has history with Nolan Ryan, they have money, and a better chance to get to the post-season in the two years Berkman is seeking. If that happens, it'll be fun to bring this up, from February 2012:
Berkman:
"Did you really want the Rangers to win? Being from Houston, I felt like I was doing this city a favor. I don’t want Dallas to have the first ring in the major leagues here."
With Pena holding down 1B/DH duties, where would Berkman fit? I can't imagine that the Astros are interested in signing a full-time DH, as it limits flexibility with the rest of the defensive positioning. The team is looking for maximum value, and if Berkman can't play in the field, then Bo Porter wouldn't be able to cycle players in and out of the DH spot to keep them fresh.
So, with the news that the Astros are interested in Berkman, it means that: (a) Berkman's knee is actually okay, or (b) Crane is pushing this move.
Let's rundown the last 15 hours of Berkman news, by team:
Astros: Luhnow was in talks with Berkman on Thursday and Friday. In the linked Mark Berman piece, Nolan Ryan says Berkman is still deciding if he wants to continue his career.
Rangers: The Rangers have an offer on the table of an undetermined length, but "two industry officials" say Berkman wants a two-year deal. The Rangers intend to primarily use him as a DH.
Rays, Phillies, Orioles, and Red Sox: Linked by former Astros writer Rafael Rojas Cremonesi (and Jon Heyman) as having interest in signing Berkman. Cremonesi says the Astros have extended an offer to Berkman, as well.
Yankees: The Yankees are interested, according to the New York Post, but writer Dan Martin says the team doesn't want to add 2014 payroll, indicating that they're looking for a 1-year deal.
Cardinals: Berkman told the Post-Dispatch that his daughters want to go back to St. Louis, but it won't happen. Derrick Goold says that Berkman is working out as though he'll be at Spring Training somewhere. On compensation, Berkman said:
"In a way they have to buy me out of retirement, and I know that sounds crass - I wish it didn't - but it's a big commitment...If I'm going to play, I'm going to give my heart and soul to the team. But if the carrot's not big enough, the mule isn't going to want to go."
So if we're ranking likely destinations for Berkman, I'd peg it as such:
1) Rangers
2) Astros
3) Yankees
4) Everyone else
Berkman has history with Nolan Ryan, they have money, and a better chance to get to the post-season in the two years Berkman is seeking. If that happens, it'll be fun to bring this up, from February 2012:
Berkman:
"Did you really want the Rangers to win? Being from Houston, I felt like I was doing this city a favor. I don’t want Dallas to have the first ring in the major leagues here."
Friday, January 4, 2013
Astros hire Alan Ashby
According to a number of accounts, the Astros have hired Alan Ashby to be "a color" commentator on television broadcasts. More to come...
Just Get the Call Right
"Get the call right."
-Joe Girardi, following ALCS Game 2
"Fans need to feel good about the fact that we're going to try to get the call right. I think umpires feel like if there's an easy way to do it, they want to be able to get the call right, too. It helps the game, I think. I think it helps the fans...the objective is to get the call right."
-Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn.
Both of these statements were made in reference to the expanded use of replay, where the goal is to simply get the call right. If an umpire makes the wrong call, everyone wants him to ask for help. Whether that's getting the opinion of another umpire on the crew, or wider-ranging instant replay, just get the call right.
BBWAA voting member Phil Rogers took this position following the aforementioned ALCS Game 2, where the Yankees found themselves trailing 3-0 instead of 1-0 going into the bottom of the 8th thanks to a blown call where the umpire in question could have asked for help.
I bring this up in reference to a Twitter conversation between myself and former Astros beat writer (and current BBWAA voting member) Jose de Jesus Ortiz, when I tweeted a hunch that Biggio wouldn't get elected into the Hall of Fame at next week's announcement. Ortiz - who covered the Astros from 2001-2009 - replied that he did, in fact, vote for Biggio (full ballot, with explanation, published here).
I then asked if any other voting member of the BBWAA called or emailed him and asked about the suspicions regarding Bagwell or Biggio and the hated Performance Enhancing Drugs. His reply:
No, but I wouldn't expect them to do that. All of the voters have seen enough baseball to form their own opinions.
This is what I simply cannot understand. There are between 575-600 voting members of the BBWAA. From what I can gather, exactly two of them covered the Astros during Bagwell and Biggio's career: Ortiz and Richard Justice. Yet not one single other voting member contacted Ortiz and asked him about whether he thought Bagwell/Biggio were clean. Why? According to Ortiz, "they have seen enough baseball to form their own opinions."
This may be true. But where did they see Bagwell and Biggio? In the 3-to-18 games per season when Houston played whichever team they covered? Or the zero games they covered? Or were the only times they saw Bagwell play baseball was when he was Hittin' Mad Jacks on SportsCenter?
Morgan Ensberg, who played with both on a regular basis from 2002-2006, said on December 26 that he thought Bagwell was clean. I asked Ensberg if anyone had asked him about their suspicions. No voter asked Ensberg for his opinion on the "cleanliness" of either candidate. I'm still waiting to hear back from Richard Justice to see if any voting member asked his opinion, but I'm going to go out on a thick, well-supported limb and say that they didn't.
If you have suspicions about a player's integrity, character, or any other intangible that the BBWAA tries to make tangible, is it not a journalistic responsibility to try to get to the bottom of your suspicions? No voter asked Jose de Jesus Ortiz and Morgan Ensberg for their opinion. They had already made up their minds, and "facts" would get in the way.
Were I a voting member from Houston trying to decide on Mike Piazza, I would most certainly take 90 seconds to email Tyler Kepner and ask, "Hey, do you think Piazza used PEDs?" or even "Are you voting for Piazza?" If he responds, I would be happy to adjust my vote accordingly. After all, Kepner would know Piazza better than I, because I would have only covered Piazza six times per season.
Why didn't anyone do this? Because it's typical BBWAA. No one can outthink them. No one can tell them that their eyes are wrong. The BBWAA might as well be summed up by our old pal Evan Grant who tweeted the following regarding the AL MVP vote:
For those carping about the BBWAA awards, a quick reminder: They are OUR awards.
Boston.com's Eric Wilbur had this to say about the BBWAA following the AL MVP vote:
But the whole process showed, yet once again, what is wrong with the hierarchies of the press box. The BBWAA reeks of arrogance and entitlement, dismissing any argument as uneducated, uninformed, or archeological.
Joe Sheehan, yesterday:
The one certainty is that the voters, rather than the players, are now the primary focus of the Hall of Fame process.
Lazy, vindictive, dismissive, ignorant, uninformed, and unwilling to ask for help. Just get the call right.
-Joe Girardi, following ALCS Game 2
"Fans need to feel good about the fact that we're going to try to get the call right. I think umpires feel like if there's an easy way to do it, they want to be able to get the call right, too. It helps the game, I think. I think it helps the fans...the objective is to get the call right."
-Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn.
Both of these statements were made in reference to the expanded use of replay, where the goal is to simply get the call right. If an umpire makes the wrong call, everyone wants him to ask for help. Whether that's getting the opinion of another umpire on the crew, or wider-ranging instant replay, just get the call right.
BBWAA voting member Phil Rogers took this position following the aforementioned ALCS Game 2, where the Yankees found themselves trailing 3-0 instead of 1-0 going into the bottom of the 8th thanks to a blown call where the umpire in question could have asked for help.
I bring this up in reference to a Twitter conversation between myself and former Astros beat writer (and current BBWAA voting member) Jose de Jesus Ortiz, when I tweeted a hunch that Biggio wouldn't get elected into the Hall of Fame at next week's announcement. Ortiz - who covered the Astros from 2001-2009 - replied that he did, in fact, vote for Biggio (full ballot, with explanation, published here).
I then asked if any other voting member of the BBWAA called or emailed him and asked about the suspicions regarding Bagwell or Biggio and the hated Performance Enhancing Drugs. His reply:
No, but I wouldn't expect them to do that. All of the voters have seen enough baseball to form their own opinions.
This is what I simply cannot understand. There are between 575-600 voting members of the BBWAA. From what I can gather, exactly two of them covered the Astros during Bagwell and Biggio's career: Ortiz and Richard Justice. Yet not one single other voting member contacted Ortiz and asked him about whether he thought Bagwell/Biggio were clean. Why? According to Ortiz, "they have seen enough baseball to form their own opinions."
This may be true. But where did they see Bagwell and Biggio? In the 3-to-18 games per season when Houston played whichever team they covered? Or the zero games they covered? Or were the only times they saw Bagwell play baseball was when he was Hittin' Mad Jacks on SportsCenter?
Morgan Ensberg, who played with both on a regular basis from 2002-2006, said on December 26 that he thought Bagwell was clean. I asked Ensberg if anyone had asked him about their suspicions. No voter asked Ensberg for his opinion on the "cleanliness" of either candidate. I'm still waiting to hear back from Richard Justice to see if any voting member asked his opinion, but I'm going to go out on a thick, well-supported limb and say that they didn't.
If you have suspicions about a player's integrity, character, or any other intangible that the BBWAA tries to make tangible, is it not a journalistic responsibility to try to get to the bottom of your suspicions? No voter asked Jose de Jesus Ortiz and Morgan Ensberg for their opinion. They had already made up their minds, and "facts" would get in the way.
Were I a voting member from Houston trying to decide on Mike Piazza, I would most certainly take 90 seconds to email Tyler Kepner and ask, "Hey, do you think Piazza used PEDs?" or even "Are you voting for Piazza?" If he responds, I would be happy to adjust my vote accordingly. After all, Kepner would know Piazza better than I, because I would have only covered Piazza six times per season.
Why didn't anyone do this? Because it's typical BBWAA. No one can outthink them. No one can tell them that their eyes are wrong. The BBWAA might as well be summed up by our old pal Evan Grant who tweeted the following regarding the AL MVP vote:
For those carping about the BBWAA awards, a quick reminder: They are OUR awards.
Boston.com's Eric Wilbur had this to say about the BBWAA following the AL MVP vote:
But the whole process showed, yet once again, what is wrong with the hierarchies of the press box. The BBWAA reeks of arrogance and entitlement, dismissing any argument as uneducated, uninformed, or archeological.
Joe Sheehan, yesterday:
The one certainty is that the voters, rather than the players, are now the primary focus of the Hall of Fame process.
Lazy, vindictive, dismissive, ignorant, uninformed, and unwilling to ask for help. Just get the call right.
Ensberg back with Houston
Morgan Ensberg has signed a contract as a roving instructor for the Astros. That is all.
John Royal's interview with Brett Dolan
The Houston Press's John Royal (full disclosure, Royal is also basically Astros County's version of Roger Cossack) interviewed former broadcaster Brett Dolan on just what happened towards the end of his and Dave Raymond's tenure with the team. Just read the whole thing...
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Astros County Top 25 Prospects: 10-1
Ok, I've teased this out enough now. Let's get down to business and check out the top 10.
10. Nick Tropeano
Tropeano took a big step forward in 2012, adding a few mph to his fastball which helps make his already good changeup that much tougher. Even more impressive was the way he excelled in Lancaster, which can chew up and spit out pitching prospects. He should get his first real test in 2013 at AA. Tropeano was a 5th round pick by Houston in 2011.
9. Jarred Cosart
Cosart is a fiery competitor with outstanding stuff that has never consistently translated to his results. Blister problems kept him from breaking out the way many hoped he would in 2012. That said, Cosart still has a chance to quickly become a top of the rotation starter or, should that fail, a good bullpen piece. Cosart will likely begin the year in AAA, though he has an outside shot of making the big club out of spring training. He was a 38th round pick by Philadelphia in 2008 and came to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade.
8. Nate Freiman
Freiman is a big first baseman which a very promising bat. He's consistently hit for good average with plenty of doubles, tape measure homeruns, and a respectable strikeout rate, especially for a big guy with power. As a rule 5 pick from the Padres organization, he'll be given a shot to stick on the roster out of spring training, though he's competing with Carlos Pena and Brett Wallace for playing time. Freiman was an 8th round pick by San Diego in 2009.
7. Domingo Santana
Santana is a corner outfielder with a huge swing that generates home runs and strikeouts. Despite being roughly three years younger than his competition, he has shown marked improvement each of the last two seasons. His real test will come this season as he faces AA pitching for the first time at just 20 years old. Santana was originally signed by Philadelphia out of the Dominican Republic and came to the Astros in the Hunter Pence trade.
6. Mike Foltynewicz
Folty made good strides in 2012 while repeating at Lexington. He's another starter who has the stuff to become a top of the rotation starter but can't quite figure out how to consistently dominate hitters. His mound presence can seem to get shaken at times, but I doubt that will be an issue going forward as he gains experience. There has been some talk that he could skip Lancaster and open the season in AA. Foltynewicz was the Astros' 1st round pick in 2010.
5. George Springer
Springer is often described as being a five tool prospect and he showed that potential in his first full season. At this point, the only real knock on his game is a high strikeout rate, although that's one fault that has ruined many a promising prospect as they face more advanced pitching. Springer will get a chance to test that theory as he starts the season in AA. Springer was the Astros 1st round pick in 2011.
4. Lance McCullers Jr
McCullers was regarded by some as one of the steals of the 2012 draft. With a triple digit fastball and developing slider and changeup, Lance has the chance to develop into a true #1 starter with a fallback as a closer. It will be interesting to see if Houston goes ahead and gives him a shot at full-season ball this year. McCullers was a supplemental 1st round pick for Houston in 2012.
3. Delino DeShields Jr
If not for the Reds' Billy Hamilton, DeShields would have been the biggest story in the minors this season. Not only did he steal over 100 bases, but his batting average, power, and defense at second all made significant strides in 2012. DeShields can be described as quiet but intense, though his body language can be a bit off-putting at times. He will likely start the season in Lancaster. DeShields was a 1st round pick by Houston in 2010.
2. Carlos Correa
I usually wait about a year before ranking any prospect this highly, but Correa has the chance to be something truly special. The size of a third baseman with the athleticism of a shortstop, combined with his big bat potential and first-class makeup should take this kid very far. It will be interesting to see how much the Astros push him through the system, as I could see him in either Tri-City or Quad Cities to start the year. Correa was the Astros 1st round pick in 2012.
1. Jon Singleton
Singleton continued his steady march towards the big leagues in 2012. We started to see the power potential materialize to match his strong batting average and walk rates. Singleton will start the season in AAA and has a good chance of seeing some time in Houston in September. He was originally drafted in the 8th round by Philadelphia in 2009 and came to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade.
So there you have it, the Astros County Top 25. I think this top 10, especially, is as strong as Houston has had in at least 20 years and should start getting the fans excited in the next couple years.
10. Nick Tropeano
Tropeano took a big step forward in 2012, adding a few mph to his fastball which helps make his already good changeup that much tougher. Even more impressive was the way he excelled in Lancaster, which can chew up and spit out pitching prospects. He should get his first real test in 2013 at AA. Tropeano was a 5th round pick by Houston in 2011.
9. Jarred Cosart
Cosart is a fiery competitor with outstanding stuff that has never consistently translated to his results. Blister problems kept him from breaking out the way many hoped he would in 2012. That said, Cosart still has a chance to quickly become a top of the rotation starter or, should that fail, a good bullpen piece. Cosart will likely begin the year in AAA, though he has an outside shot of making the big club out of spring training. He was a 38th round pick by Philadelphia in 2008 and came to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade.
8. Nate Freiman
Freiman is a big first baseman which a very promising bat. He's consistently hit for good average with plenty of doubles, tape measure homeruns, and a respectable strikeout rate, especially for a big guy with power. As a rule 5 pick from the Padres organization, he'll be given a shot to stick on the roster out of spring training, though he's competing with Carlos Pena and Brett Wallace for playing time. Freiman was an 8th round pick by San Diego in 2009.
7. Domingo Santana
Santana is a corner outfielder with a huge swing that generates home runs and strikeouts. Despite being roughly three years younger than his competition, he has shown marked improvement each of the last two seasons. His real test will come this season as he faces AA pitching for the first time at just 20 years old. Santana was originally signed by Philadelphia out of the Dominican Republic and came to the Astros in the Hunter Pence trade.
6. Mike Foltynewicz
Folty made good strides in 2012 while repeating at Lexington. He's another starter who has the stuff to become a top of the rotation starter but can't quite figure out how to consistently dominate hitters. His mound presence can seem to get shaken at times, but I doubt that will be an issue going forward as he gains experience. There has been some talk that he could skip Lancaster and open the season in AA. Foltynewicz was the Astros' 1st round pick in 2010.
5. George Springer
Springer is often described as being a five tool prospect and he showed that potential in his first full season. At this point, the only real knock on his game is a high strikeout rate, although that's one fault that has ruined many a promising prospect as they face more advanced pitching. Springer will get a chance to test that theory as he starts the season in AA. Springer was the Astros 1st round pick in 2011.
4. Lance McCullers Jr
McCullers was regarded by some as one of the steals of the 2012 draft. With a triple digit fastball and developing slider and changeup, Lance has the chance to develop into a true #1 starter with a fallback as a closer. It will be interesting to see if Houston goes ahead and gives him a shot at full-season ball this year. McCullers was a supplemental 1st round pick for Houston in 2012.
3. Delino DeShields Jr
If not for the Reds' Billy Hamilton, DeShields would have been the biggest story in the minors this season. Not only did he steal over 100 bases, but his batting average, power, and defense at second all made significant strides in 2012. DeShields can be described as quiet but intense, though his body language can be a bit off-putting at times. He will likely start the season in Lancaster. DeShields was a 1st round pick by Houston in 2010.
2. Carlos Correa
I usually wait about a year before ranking any prospect this highly, but Correa has the chance to be something truly special. The size of a third baseman with the athleticism of a shortstop, combined with his big bat potential and first-class makeup should take this kid very far. It will be interesting to see how much the Astros push him through the system, as I could see him in either Tri-City or Quad Cities to start the year. Correa was the Astros 1st round pick in 2012.
1. Jon Singleton
Singleton continued his steady march towards the big leagues in 2012. We started to see the power potential materialize to match his strong batting average and walk rates. Singleton will start the season in AAA and has a good chance of seeing some time in Houston in September. He was originally drafted in the 8th round by Philadelphia in 2009 and came to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade.
So there you have it, the Astros County Top 25. I think this top 10, especially, is as strong as Houston has had in at least 20 years and should start getting the fans excited in the next couple years.
Hall of Fame Announcement
MLB Network will be airing the Hall of Fame announcement live on January 9, at 2:00 pm ET. Coverage will start at 12. It will be a two hour event, and "will include interviews with electees." Unless MLB has enlisted the help of a necromancer, the electee interviewed would have to be someone elected by the BBWAA, rather than the veterans committee.
Right now Biggio and Bagwell are leading the way, with 71% and 69% of the vote respectively, with 15% of the vote counted. (Source The 2013 Hall Of Fame Ballot Collecting Gizmo!) Could it be that the remaining 85% were enough to get one or both over the 75% threshold? Its hard to believe MLB would host a 2 hour live show to announce no one got in, and it looks like Biggio is the most likely choice. Other possibilities include Piazza, Raines and Morris, who are all over 60 % according to the Gizmo. Things just got interesting.
Right now Biggio and Bagwell are leading the way, with 71% and 69% of the vote respectively, with 15% of the vote counted. (Source The 2013 Hall Of Fame Ballot Collecting Gizmo!) Could it be that the remaining 85% were enough to get one or both over the 75% threshold? Its hard to believe MLB would host a 2 hour live show to announce no one got in, and it looks like Biggio is the most likely choice. Other possibilities include Piazza, Raines and Morris, who are all over 60 % according to the Gizmo. Things just got interesting.
Checking out the Astros ZIPS Projections
Dave Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for the 2013 Astros went up on Fangraphs this morning. They are, as expected, pretty grim. As noted in the summary, every pitcher on the Astros roster is projected to have a below average ERA, (save Wesley Wright) and Matt Dominguez's projected 1.9 WAR is second best on the team. The Astros projected starting lineup is projected to post 11.8 total WAR. Better than Trout's 10 from last year, but not by much. But enough with the bad news. Are there any positives?
Well, for starters, several of the Astros prospects have been projected as well, and they hold up quite well against the current roster. Ranked by projected WAR, Singleton is 5th with 1.5, Deshields and Springer are tied for 11th with .9 and Grossman and Villar are just outside the top 15 with .7 and .6 respectively. Given these prospects ages, its a very good sign that ZIPS projects them to hold their own in the majors.
As far as the current major league roster, the projections show some progress. It doesn't expect Dominguez to be a world beater, but shows him holding his own offensively, while showing off that all-world glove. The projections for Lowrie, Maxwell and Castro are based on less than 400 ABS. If they play full seasons, they could near double their projected outputs. Altuve is expected to continue to make progress, and is expected lead the team with 2.5 WAR.
As for the pitchers, well, there is not much good news. As noted above, none of the starters are expected to be even league average. The three major additions to the rotation, White, Humber and Ely are all projected to have ERA's over 5.00. The FIP's are all lower, which I guess means ZIPS projects the defense to be sub-par. A 4.22 projected ERA from the closer will result in a lot of blown leads. The good news, I guess, is that these are just projections. I personally expect the Astros starting rotation to be better than this, though not by much.
Overall, this confirms what we already know. The Astros are not supposed to be very good next year. Shocker. But you can also see, even in these projections, the next wave of Astro talent coming. Its going to be rough, maybe for a while, but help just might be on the way.
Well, for starters, several of the Astros prospects have been projected as well, and they hold up quite well against the current roster. Ranked by projected WAR, Singleton is 5th with 1.5, Deshields and Springer are tied for 11th with .9 and Grossman and Villar are just outside the top 15 with .7 and .6 respectively. Given these prospects ages, its a very good sign that ZIPS projects them to hold their own in the majors.
As far as the current major league roster, the projections show some progress. It doesn't expect Dominguez to be a world beater, but shows him holding his own offensively, while showing off that all-world glove. The projections for Lowrie, Maxwell and Castro are based on less than 400 ABS. If they play full seasons, they could near double their projected outputs. Altuve is expected to continue to make progress, and is expected lead the team with 2.5 WAR.
As for the pitchers, well, there is not much good news. As noted above, none of the starters are expected to be even league average. The three major additions to the rotation, White, Humber and Ely are all projected to have ERA's over 5.00. The FIP's are all lower, which I guess means ZIPS projects the defense to be sub-par. A 4.22 projected ERA from the closer will result in a lot of blown leads. The good news, I guess, is that these are just projections. I personally expect the Astros starting rotation to be better than this, though not by much.
Overall, this confirms what we already know. The Astros are not supposed to be very good next year. Shocker. But you can also see, even in these projections, the next wave of Astro talent coming. Its going to be rough, maybe for a while, but help just might be on the way.
Unzipped: Projecting the AL West
The ZIPS projections for the 2013 Astros season will be released later today, but instead of waiting for that, I decided to do a little projecting of my own.
Using baseballreference.com I established a home run rate, strike out rate, and hit rate for each of the starting 9 of the 5 clubs in the AL West. I used mlb.com's depth chart to determine what players would be included. Using these numbers I projected what each player would do with a minimum number of major league at bats (486) if they started every game at that position. I did not include walks or obp because I was using the at bat stat for these projections and not plate appearances.
Instead of posting the actual numbers for each player, I decided to use the numbers to compare the overall output, in regards to these stats, by each team, giving a better idea of where the Astros could end up in relation to the rest of the AL West.
Disclaimer: These numbers are pulled from 2012 batting stats. Small sample size, potential FA signings, and pitching adjustments be damned.
Home Runs:
1. Houston Astros
2. LA Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers
5. Seattle Mariners
Top 3 players home run rate:
1. Josh Hamilton - LA Angels 13.069 AB/HR
2. Chris Carter - Oakland Athletics 13.62 AB/HR
3. Justin Maxwell - Houston Astros 17.5 AB/HR
I found the biggest surprise to be the home run numbers. The Astros and the Angels were neck and neck in the total home run numbers.The Angels line up has more proven AB's while the Astros line up is a projection based on a smaller sample of AB's. So I figure Houston's players may experience greater periods of slumps than the Angels line up. Or maybe they will take some developmental strides and surprise some people. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
Maxwell, Lowrie, and Dominguez project as the top 3 home run hitters on the Astros.
Strike Outs: (greatest to least)
1. Oakland Athletics
2. Houston Astros
3. Seattle Mariners
4. LA Angels
5. Texas Rangers
Top 3 K rates:
1. Mike Olt - Texas Rangers K/2.5 AB (very small sample size)
2. Carlos Pena - Houston Astros K/2.7 AB
3. Justin Maxwell - Houston Astros K/2.76 AB
Oakland barely edges Houston in strike out totals with Seattle not far behind. The Angels and Rangers show the most discipline at the plate and it's not very close.
Carlos Pena, Justin Maxwell, and Bret Wallace project to have the most strike outs for the Astros.
Batting Average:
1. LA Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Houston Astros
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Oakland Athletics
Top 3 Hit Rates:
1. Mike Trout - LA Angels Hit every 3.07 AB.
2. Adrian Beltre - Texas Rangers Hit every 3.11 AB.
3. Craig Gentry - Texas Rangers Hit every 3.27 AB.
Top Astro: Jose Altuve Hit every 3.44 AB
Jose Altuve, Matt Dominguez, and Jason Castro project to have to top 3 batting averages on the club..
The Rangers and Angels team batting average each projected about 25 points higher than Houston's team average, which projects about half as much of that over Seattle and Oakland.
So what can we take from this? Not a ton. This wasn't the most scientific method of projection and later today when Houston's ZIPS projections come out we can get a more precise estimate of how Houston's players will perform on an individual level. This was meant as more of sizing up the AL West in these categories to get a better idea of how Houston will compete in 2013.
Using baseballreference.com I established a home run rate, strike out rate, and hit rate for each of the starting 9 of the 5 clubs in the AL West. I used mlb.com's depth chart to determine what players would be included. Using these numbers I projected what each player would do with a minimum number of major league at bats (486) if they started every game at that position. I did not include walks or obp because I was using the at bat stat for these projections and not plate appearances.
Instead of posting the actual numbers for each player, I decided to use the numbers to compare the overall output, in regards to these stats, by each team, giving a better idea of where the Astros could end up in relation to the rest of the AL West.
Disclaimer: These numbers are pulled from 2012 batting stats. Small sample size, potential FA signings, and pitching adjustments be damned.
Home Runs:
1. Houston Astros
2. LA Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers
5. Seattle Mariners
Top 3 players home run rate:
1. Josh Hamilton - LA Angels 13.069 AB/HR
2. Chris Carter - Oakland Athletics 13.62 AB/HR
3. Justin Maxwell - Houston Astros 17.5 AB/HR
I found the biggest surprise to be the home run numbers. The Astros and the Angels were neck and neck in the total home run numbers.The Angels line up has more proven AB's while the Astros line up is a projection based on a smaller sample of AB's. So I figure Houston's players may experience greater periods of slumps than the Angels line up. Or maybe they will take some developmental strides and surprise some people. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
Maxwell, Lowrie, and Dominguez project as the top 3 home run hitters on the Astros.
Strike Outs: (greatest to least)
1. Oakland Athletics
2. Houston Astros
3. Seattle Mariners
4. LA Angels
5. Texas Rangers
Top 3 K rates:
1. Mike Olt - Texas Rangers K/2.5 AB (very small sample size)
2. Carlos Pena - Houston Astros K/2.7 AB
3. Justin Maxwell - Houston Astros K/2.76 AB
Oakland barely edges Houston in strike out totals with Seattle not far behind. The Angels and Rangers show the most discipline at the plate and it's not very close.
Carlos Pena, Justin Maxwell, and Bret Wallace project to have the most strike outs for the Astros.
Batting Average:
1. LA Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Houston Astros
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Oakland Athletics
Top 3 Hit Rates:
1. Mike Trout - LA Angels Hit every 3.07 AB.
2. Adrian Beltre - Texas Rangers Hit every 3.11 AB.
3. Craig Gentry - Texas Rangers Hit every 3.27 AB.
Top Astro: Jose Altuve Hit every 3.44 AB
Jose Altuve, Matt Dominguez, and Jason Castro project to have to top 3 batting averages on the club..
The Rangers and Angels team batting average each projected about 25 points higher than Houston's team average, which projects about half as much of that over Seattle and Oakland.
So what can we take from this? Not a ton. This wasn't the most scientific method of projection and later today when Houston's ZIPS projections come out we can get a more precise estimate of how Houston's players will perform on an individual level. This was meant as more of sizing up the AL West in these categories to get a better idea of how Houston will compete in 2013.
Monday, December 31, 2012
Astros County Top 25 Prospects: 15-11
These five and the previous five are virtually interchangeable. As a matter of fact, if I were to re-rank this group, my number 15 would be number 20 today. If you missed it, check out the first two posts 25-21 and 20-16 first, then come back to check out this one.
15. Kevin Chapman
As a lefty reliever, Chapman finally showed some ability to get out right handed hitters in 2012, though his walk rate remains too high. Admittedly, it's risky to rank a minor league reliever this high, but with a floor as a lefty specialist I think Chapman has a good shot of reaching the majors some day. He was originally a 4th round pick by the Royals and came to the Astros in the Humberto Quintero deal. He should spend most of the season in AAA and has the chance to earn a cup of coffee this season.
14. Andrew Aplin
Aplin is a centerfielder with a little pop and a lot of speed. As is the case with many of the prospects added to the system recently, he also shows some patience at the plate. Aplin was taken in the 5th round of the 2012 draft by the Astros. He should spend the season in A ball.
13. Preston Tucker
Tucker is a corner outfielder with some power, a decent walk rate, and a low strikeout rate. I could see him and Aplin playing side by side for a few years to come. Tucker should also be in A ball in 2013. He was the Astros 7th round pick in 2012.
12. Austin Wates
Wates is best known for his Sportscenter Top Plays catch over the wall, but the attention he received afterwards is warranted. As a left fielder who can play a little center, Wates' best tools are his defense and his strong batting average. He's also very engaging with fans on Twitter. Wates was the 3rd round pick by Houston in 2010 and earned a shot at AAA pitching this year.
11. Nolan Fontana
Fontana got a lot of attention for walking 65 times in just 49 games in 2012. That said, he also struck out a lot and only hit .225, though that's a direct result of him taking so many pitches and working to two-strike counts. A more balanced approach will help this shortstop going forward. Picked in the 2nd round by the Astros in 2012, Fontana should spend the year in A ball.
15. Kevin Chapman
As a lefty reliever, Chapman finally showed some ability to get out right handed hitters in 2012, though his walk rate remains too high. Admittedly, it's risky to rank a minor league reliever this high, but with a floor as a lefty specialist I think Chapman has a good shot of reaching the majors some day. He was originally a 4th round pick by the Royals and came to the Astros in the Humberto Quintero deal. He should spend most of the season in AAA and has the chance to earn a cup of coffee this season.
14. Andrew Aplin
Aplin is a centerfielder with a little pop and a lot of speed. As is the case with many of the prospects added to the system recently, he also shows some patience at the plate. Aplin was taken in the 5th round of the 2012 draft by the Astros. He should spend the season in A ball.
13. Preston Tucker
Tucker is a corner outfielder with some power, a decent walk rate, and a low strikeout rate. I could see him and Aplin playing side by side for a few years to come. Tucker should also be in A ball in 2013. He was the Astros 7th round pick in 2012.
12. Austin Wates
Wates is best known for his Sportscenter Top Plays catch over the wall, but the attention he received afterwards is warranted. As a left fielder who can play a little center, Wates' best tools are his defense and his strong batting average. He's also very engaging with fans on Twitter. Wates was the 3rd round pick by Houston in 2010 and earned a shot at AAA pitching this year.
11. Nolan Fontana
Fontana got a lot of attention for walking 65 times in just 49 games in 2012. That said, he also struck out a lot and only hit .225, though that's a direct result of him taking so many pitches and working to two-strike counts. A more balanced approach will help this shortstop going forward. Picked in the 2nd round by the Astros in 2012, Fontana should spend the year in A ball.
Friday, December 28, 2012
Astros County Top 25 Prospects: 20-16
So, the last five spots generated quite a bit of discussion. If you missed it, go check it out first. Otherwise, let's get right down to business.
20. Tyler Heineman
Heineman quickly made his presence known in a big way with Tri-City. As a catcher, he threw out 41% of would be basestealers while putting up a monster OBP, spraying doubles, and showing a strong inability to strikeout. As an 8th round pick out of college, Heineman will likely move through the system quickly if he keeps up this level of production. He should start the year in A ball and could sneak into AA by the end of the season, though I think it's unlikely.
19. Robbie Grossman
Grossman is another high on-base ability prospect added this past season. He's played all three outfield positions relatively solidly and has the ability to steal a few bases as well. Originally a 6th round pick out of Cy-Fair High by the Pirates, Grossman was acquired in the Wandy Rodriguez trade. He spent the season in AA and should start in AAA next year, with an outside shot of seeing time as a late-season call-up.
18. Carlos Perez
Despite spending the season in High A ball, there was some concern Perez was a potential Rule 5 selection this off-season. Thankfully, that didn't happen so the Astros get to keep this strong catching prospect in the system. Perez has gained acclaim for his improved defensive ability while routinely hitting for a good average with a strong on-base percentage as well. Perez was originally signed out of Venezuela by Toronto and came to the Astros in the multi-player deal this past summer. Perez will likely start the year in AA.
17. Ariel Ovando
Ovando took steps towards fulfilling his massive potential as he repeated with Greeneville. Known for his massive power potential, Ovando is still quite raw. However, eyewitness reports indicate that he appeared much more focused this past season, both at the plate and in the field. Ovando was given a $2.6M signing bonus by the Astros when they inked him out of the Dominican Republic. I imagine Ovando will get his first test of full-season ball this year, likely with Quad Cities.
16. Josh Fields
Fields has the ability to put up eye-popping strikeout numbers, but always had control issues to go along with them. However, 2012 may have been the year he figured it out and started realizing the potential that led to him being a 1st round pick by Seattle in 2008. After being traded to Boston in 2011, Fields was selected by Houston in the 2012 Rule 5 draft. Assuming he doesn't implode during Spring Training and get returned to Boston, he'll break camp in 2013 as a member of the 25 man roster.
20. Tyler Heineman
Heineman quickly made his presence known in a big way with Tri-City. As a catcher, he threw out 41% of would be basestealers while putting up a monster OBP, spraying doubles, and showing a strong inability to strikeout. As an 8th round pick out of college, Heineman will likely move through the system quickly if he keeps up this level of production. He should start the year in A ball and could sneak into AA by the end of the season, though I think it's unlikely.
19. Robbie Grossman
Grossman is another high on-base ability prospect added this past season. He's played all three outfield positions relatively solidly and has the ability to steal a few bases as well. Originally a 6th round pick out of Cy-Fair High by the Pirates, Grossman was acquired in the Wandy Rodriguez trade. He spent the season in AA and should start in AAA next year, with an outside shot of seeing time as a late-season call-up.
18. Carlos Perez
Despite spending the season in High A ball, there was some concern Perez was a potential Rule 5 selection this off-season. Thankfully, that didn't happen so the Astros get to keep this strong catching prospect in the system. Perez has gained acclaim for his improved defensive ability while routinely hitting for a good average with a strong on-base percentage as well. Perez was originally signed out of Venezuela by Toronto and came to the Astros in the multi-player deal this past summer. Perez will likely start the year in AA.
17. Ariel Ovando
Ovando took steps towards fulfilling his massive potential as he repeated with Greeneville. Known for his massive power potential, Ovando is still quite raw. However, eyewitness reports indicate that he appeared much more focused this past season, both at the plate and in the field. Ovando was given a $2.6M signing bonus by the Astros when they inked him out of the Dominican Republic. I imagine Ovando will get his first test of full-season ball this year, likely with Quad Cities.
16. Josh Fields
Fields has the ability to put up eye-popping strikeout numbers, but always had control issues to go along with them. However, 2012 may have been the year he figured it out and started realizing the potential that led to him being a 1st round pick by Seattle in 2008. After being traded to Boston in 2011, Fields was selected by Houston in the 2012 Rule 5 draft. Assuming he doesn't implode during Spring Training and get returned to Boston, he'll break camp in 2013 as a member of the 25 man roster.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Astros County Top 25 Prospects: 25-21
What a difference a year makes! Since I know we have the smartest readers in the entire internet, I won't rehash just how needed this organizational overhaul was when Houston's rebuild was started a couple years ago. Not only do the Astros now have bona fide prospects knocking on the door, but quality depth on the farm as well. Sure, the last two years have been painful in The Juicebox, but the fans' patience should start paying off soon, with some of these kids making appearances as early as this coming season.
In order to add some semblance of structure to these rankings, I judged a list of about 50 players on four categories: ceiling, floor, production, and intangibles.
Because I don't feel like writing this as a novel, let's break it up a little so I can spend a couple seconds on each player.
25. Jonathan Villar
"But wait, how can you rank a guy 25th when the experts have him in their top 10?" Honestly, I'm not a Villar fan. The tools are definitely there, and I think he has one of the higher ceilings in the system, but I have doubts that he'll ever put it all together. Between his lackluster production to date, and his questionable make-up I still feel like he could flame out at any minute. But if he pulls it all together this year and proves me wrong, I'll be one of his biggest cheerleaders. This toolsy shortstop will probably spend the year in AAA, but he's still fairly raw. Villar was signed by Philadelphia out of the Dominican Republic and came to Houston in 2010 as part of the Roy Oswalt deal.
24. Marc Krauss
Marc is a power-hitting corner outfielder who is also capable of drawing a walk. After repeating at AA last year, he'll likely start the season at AAA and could show up in Houston late this season. He was a 2nd round pick for Arizona in 2009 and came to Houston in the Chris Johnson trade last year.
23. Jiovanni Mier
Yep, Mier ranked above Villar. That just happened. Prior to a pretty bad hamstring injury this season, Mier was showing us why he was a #1 pick in 2009 (Lancaster caveat). He's a more polished fielder at shortstop with a better eye at the plate and, in my opinion, a better makeup than Villar. His ceiling may not be as high, but I think he's more likely to stick around for a little while. Assuming Villar moves up to AAA, Mier will probably be in Corpus this year.
22. Joe Musgrove
Musgrove is a big right-handed starter who battled injuries in 2012. If his health comes back and, with it, his velocity as well he could start moving up the list. He was a supplemental first round pick for Toronto in 2011 and came to the Astros organization as part of the multi-player trade with the BlueJays this year. I doubt Musgrove plays full-season ball this year, so I'll say he starts the year with Tri-City.
21. Chia-Jen Lo
Lo has bounced around the prospect radar for a few years now. Remember when he was the winning pitcher in the same Futures game as Jason Castro? Well, since then he's thrown just 47 innings in the past three seasons. After injuries threatened to derail his career, he came roaring back in 2012. Lo was signed as a reliever out of Taiwan prior to the 2009 season. I'd expect him to start out at AA and could move up very quickly if his arm and production hold up. We may even see him in Houston in September.
In order to add some semblance of structure to these rankings, I judged a list of about 50 players on four categories: ceiling, floor, production, and intangibles.
Because I don't feel like writing this as a novel, let's break it up a little so I can spend a couple seconds on each player.
25. Jonathan Villar
"But wait, how can you rank a guy 25th when the experts have him in their top 10?" Honestly, I'm not a Villar fan. The tools are definitely there, and I think he has one of the higher ceilings in the system, but I have doubts that he'll ever put it all together. Between his lackluster production to date, and his questionable make-up I still feel like he could flame out at any minute. But if he pulls it all together this year and proves me wrong, I'll be one of his biggest cheerleaders. This toolsy shortstop will probably spend the year in AAA, but he's still fairly raw. Villar was signed by Philadelphia out of the Dominican Republic and came to Houston in 2010 as part of the Roy Oswalt deal.
24. Marc Krauss
Marc is a power-hitting corner outfielder who is also capable of drawing a walk. After repeating at AA last year, he'll likely start the season at AAA and could show up in Houston late this season. He was a 2nd round pick for Arizona in 2009 and came to Houston in the Chris Johnson trade last year.
23. Jiovanni Mier
Yep, Mier ranked above Villar. That just happened. Prior to a pretty bad hamstring injury this season, Mier was showing us why he was a #1 pick in 2009 (Lancaster caveat). He's a more polished fielder at shortstop with a better eye at the plate and, in my opinion, a better makeup than Villar. His ceiling may not be as high, but I think he's more likely to stick around for a little while. Assuming Villar moves up to AAA, Mier will probably be in Corpus this year.
22. Joe Musgrove
Musgrove is a big right-handed starter who battled injuries in 2012. If his health comes back and, with it, his velocity as well he could start moving up the list. He was a supplemental first round pick for Toronto in 2011 and came to the Astros organization as part of the multi-player trade with the BlueJays this year. I doubt Musgrove plays full-season ball this year, so I'll say he starts the year with Tri-City.
21. Chia-Jen Lo
Lo has bounced around the prospect radar for a few years now. Remember when he was the winning pitcher in the same Futures game as Jason Castro? Well, since then he's thrown just 47 innings in the past three seasons. After injuries threatened to derail his career, he came roaring back in 2012. Lo was signed as a reliever out of Taiwan prior to the 2009 season. I'd expect him to start out at AA and could move up very quickly if his arm and production hold up. We may even see him in Houston in September.
Sunday, December 23, 2012
The Worst Hall of Fame Ballot You Will Read About (Hopefully)
Bob Brookover offers his thought process for his Hall of Fame vote, and boy is it a doozy. Brookover gets really hung up on the "integrity, sportsmanship, character," clause, even going so far as to break out his dictionary to get some defininitions for the terms.
Without that clause, he acknowledges he would fill up his ballot, with Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, Bagwell, Biggio, Piazza, McGriff, McGwire, Schilling and Palmiero. Instead, he winds up voting for Dale Murphy.
Obviously, this is mostly about PEDs. Regarding Bagwell, he acknowledges the lack of evidence, and Bagwell's denials, but ultimately concludes "I'm just not sure I believe him, and the reason is because I've watched players lie in front of Congress. If they can lie there, they can lie anywhere about anything." So, because other baseball players have lied, Bagwell must be lying. That's all it takes for Brookover to justify a character assassination. Make no mistake, that's what this is. Brookover is saying that nothing Bagwell says can be trusted, because he played baseball in the 90's. Despite having no objective reason to disbelieve the denials, Bagwell does not meet Brookover's "integrity, sportmanship & character" standard.
Believe it or not, it gets worse. Schilling once lied about his use of smokeless tobacco, and some teammates disliked him. That's apparently enough to fall short of Brookover's standard. He doesn't go into Biggio, but apparently something Biggio has done, or something Brookover imagines he might have done, must keep him out.
So he's down to Murphy, the paragon of virtue. Murphy, who has apparently never lied about anything ever. Murphy, whose playing career was apparently not enough to justify Brookover's vote in the past, is the only player who meets this new standard, where playing career is subordinate to your personal virtue.
This can all be read as a protest vote, as he calls for the Hall to get rid of the integrity clause. In reality, its a cop out. Instead of coming to terms with the steroids era, and its place in baseball history that is filled with imperfect men, doing anything they could to get ahead, he passes the buck. There are liars, cheats, murderers, crooks, racists and drug abusers (greenies, definitely, steroids, probably) already in the Hall of Fame. It doesn't need Brookover to keep it pure. By only voting for Murphy, he helps ensure that no one will get in this year. The Hall will be left trying to promote a bunch of dead veteran comittee inductees, instead of having fans of the best players of the 90's flock to Cooperstown. By protecting the Hall, he just might destroy it.
Without that clause, he acknowledges he would fill up his ballot, with Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, Bagwell, Biggio, Piazza, McGriff, McGwire, Schilling and Palmiero. Instead, he winds up voting for Dale Murphy.
Obviously, this is mostly about PEDs. Regarding Bagwell, he acknowledges the lack of evidence, and Bagwell's denials, but ultimately concludes "I'm just not sure I believe him, and the reason is because I've watched players lie in front of Congress. If they can lie there, they can lie anywhere about anything." So, because other baseball players have lied, Bagwell must be lying. That's all it takes for Brookover to justify a character assassination. Make no mistake, that's what this is. Brookover is saying that nothing Bagwell says can be trusted, because he played baseball in the 90's. Despite having no objective reason to disbelieve the denials, Bagwell does not meet Brookover's "integrity, sportmanship & character" standard.
Believe it or not, it gets worse. Schilling once lied about his use of smokeless tobacco, and some teammates disliked him. That's apparently enough to fall short of Brookover's standard. He doesn't go into Biggio, but apparently something Biggio has done, or something Brookover imagines he might have done, must keep him out.
So he's down to Murphy, the paragon of virtue. Murphy, who has apparently never lied about anything ever. Murphy, whose playing career was apparently not enough to justify Brookover's vote in the past, is the only player who meets this new standard, where playing career is subordinate to your personal virtue.
This can all be read as a protest vote, as he calls for the Hall to get rid of the integrity clause. In reality, its a cop out. Instead of coming to terms with the steroids era, and its place in baseball history that is filled with imperfect men, doing anything they could to get ahead, he passes the buck. There are liars, cheats, murderers, crooks, racists and drug abusers (greenies, definitely, steroids, probably) already in the Hall of Fame. It doesn't need Brookover to keep it pure. By only voting for Murphy, he helps ensure that no one will get in this year. The Hall will be left trying to promote a bunch of dead veteran comittee inductees, instead of having fans of the best players of the 90's flock to Cooperstown. By protecting the Hall, he just might destroy it.
Friday, December 21, 2012
Hall of Fame Update
With roughly 5% of the 575 total Hall of Fame electorate having released their ballot, its high time to release a summary of what we've learned so far.
We have Bagwell and Biggio both over 80% based on the ballots we have found. This is obviously a very good start. Repoz, at BBTF, reports lower figures for over 6% of the voters, with Bagwell at 74% and Biggio at 65%. Still within striking distance, but not as promising.
The majority of writers have focused their write-ups on Clemens, Bonds,etc., so we don't have a good feel for why the voters are saying yea or nay to Biggio and Bagwell. Only one, Pat Caputo, has explicity brought up steroids. You know what we have to say about that. One voter, Bob Klapisch, has said Biggio is not a first ballot Hall of Famer, and plans to vote for him next year. I hate this reasoning, but its common. My expectation is that if Biggio does not get in this year, it will not be steroids or anti-Houston bias, but rather this first ballot nonsense keeping him out. Keep in mind that Alomar and Larkin both got in on their second try.
We have Bagwell and Biggio both over 80% based on the ballots we have found. This is obviously a very good start. Repoz, at BBTF, reports lower figures for over 6% of the voters, with Bagwell at 74% and Biggio at 65%. Still within striking distance, but not as promising.
The majority of writers have focused their write-ups on Clemens, Bonds,etc., so we don't have a good feel for why the voters are saying yea or nay to Biggio and Bagwell. Only one, Pat Caputo, has explicity brought up steroids. You know what we have to say about that. One voter, Bob Klapisch, has said Biggio is not a first ballot Hall of Famer, and plans to vote for him next year. I hate this reasoning, but its common. My expectation is that if Biggio does not get in this year, it will not be steroids or anti-Houston bias, but rather this first ballot nonsense keeping him out. Keep in mind that Alomar and Larkin both got in on their second try.
Was Biggio Just a Compiler
The early returns on Biggio's Hall of Fame candidacy are promising, with many touting Biggio as the "clean" choice among all the steroid muck. However, the one knock that keeps coming up against Biggio is that he was never a great player, but was merely a compiler of stats, hanging on past his prime to get to 3,000 hits and his ticket to Cooperstown. Now, my first inclination is to call those people idiots and be done with it. However, maybe a better approach would be to actually look at the evidence, to see if it has any merit.
In the past ten years, there have been three middle infielders elected to the Hall of Fame: Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin. All of them played several years less than Biggio, and none of them got to 3,000 hits. In fact, Biggio bests them in all of the major counting stats for his career. But how does Biggio's prime compare with these players? Is the knock on Biggio, that he was never as great as these players, but just played long enough to accumulate more counting stats, accurate?
Looking at these four players, it is remarkable how similar they are. Their career bWAR ranges from 62.1 (Biggio) to 67.1 (Larkin). (On Fangraphs, the range is wider, with Sandberg trailing with 62.6 and Biggio and Larkin leading with 70.5). They also had a easily definable decade long stretch where they consistently performed at an All Star level and then a fairly steep decline in later years. Comparing these peaks can determine whether Biggio was ever as dominate as his other Hall of Fame contemporaries, or merely accumulated stats by playing longer.
Sandberg's peak begins earlier than the others, and extends from 1983 to 1993. Larkin's peak actually stretched from 1988 to 1999. For ease of comparison, lets use 1998 instead. Biggio and Alomar's both began in 1991 and stretched to 2001. Comparing these stretches shows some amazing similarities.
Runs Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR/Career
Sandberg 1038 1907 307 62 233 827 291 .292 .353 .466 122 57.7/64.9
Larkin 864 1561 285 56 141 656 286 .305 .382 .466 128 56.4/67.1
In the past ten years, there have been three middle infielders elected to the Hall of Fame: Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin. All of them played several years less than Biggio, and none of them got to 3,000 hits. In fact, Biggio bests them in all of the major counting stats for his career. But how does Biggio's prime compare with these players? Is the knock on Biggio, that he was never as great as these players, but just played long enough to accumulate more counting stats, accurate?
Looking at these four players, it is remarkable how similar they are. Their career bWAR ranges from 62.1 (Biggio) to 67.1 (Larkin). (On Fangraphs, the range is wider, with Sandberg trailing with 62.6 and Biggio and Larkin leading with 70.5). They also had a easily definable decade long stretch where they consistently performed at an All Star level and then a fairly steep decline in later years. Comparing these peaks can determine whether Biggio was ever as dominate as his other Hall of Fame contemporaries, or merely accumulated stats by playing longer.
Sandberg's peak begins earlier than the others, and extends from 1983 to 1993. Larkin's peak actually stretched from 1988 to 1999. For ease of comparison, lets use 1998 instead. Biggio and Alomar's both began in 1991 and stretched to 2001. Comparing these stretches shows some amazing similarities.
Runs Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR/Career
Sandberg 1038 1907 307 62 233 827 291 .292 .353 .466 122 57.7/64.9
Larkin 864 1561 285 56 141 656 286 .305 .382 .466 128 56.4/67.1
Alomar 1105 1895 368 60 168 861 355 .313 .389 .477 126 52.0/62.9
Biggio 1174 1856 386 41 160 704 313 .296 .390 .448 124 53.2/62.1
I think it would be difficult to find four more similar players than these four during their peaks. Larkin falls behind in several of the counting stats, due to injuries, but is right there in the rate stats. Obviously, the offensive environments were much different for Sandberg in the 80's NL and Alomar in the 90's AL, but that is reflected in the OPS + figure. Overall, these are remarkably similar lines. Where any one has an advantage, they give it up in other places. Furthermore, they each amassed over 80% of their career value in those 11 seasons.
There is no doubt that by the time Biggio reached 3,000 hits, he was a shell of his former self. By WAR, he was worth -2.3 in 2007 (meaning he would have been with Sandberg with 64 career had he just not played.) Thing is though, Biggio did not need 3,000 hits to be a Hall of Fame caliber player. His career was right in line with those of Sandberg, Larkin and Alomar, who were all elected to the Hall of Fame without any magic numbers. If Sandberg, Larkin and Alomar are Hall of Famers, there is absolutely no basis to keep out Craig Biggio.
I think it would be difficult to find four more similar players than these four during their peaks. Larkin falls behind in several of the counting stats, due to injuries, but is right there in the rate stats. Obviously, the offensive environments were much different for Sandberg in the 80's NL and Alomar in the 90's AL, but that is reflected in the OPS + figure. Overall, these are remarkably similar lines. Where any one has an advantage, they give it up in other places. Furthermore, they each amassed over 80% of their career value in those 11 seasons.
There is no doubt that by the time Biggio reached 3,000 hits, he was a shell of his former self. By WAR, he was worth -2.3 in 2007 (meaning he would have been with Sandberg with 64 career had he just not played.) Thing is though, Biggio did not need 3,000 hits to be a Hall of Fame caliber player. His career was right in line with those of Sandberg, Larkin and Alomar, who were all elected to the Hall of Fame without any magic numbers. If Sandberg, Larkin and Alomar are Hall of Famers, there is absolutely no basis to keep out Craig Biggio.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Newsday "debates" Biggio's HOF candidacy
Looking for some outrage today? Newsday had a little "debate" over Craig Biggio's Hall of Fame candidacy.
My favorite Pro:
During his career, Biggio was a seven-time All-Star, won five Silver Sluggers and four Gold Gloves and finished in the top 16 of MVP voting five times.
My favorite Con:
While Biggio was a prolific hitter, he was only a good player (no top 3 finishes in MVP voting) and he doesn't have much else to commend him to the Hall.
It's a debate, so presumably the point of the column is to say that there are qualities for and against certain players. But it's fun when one of your points for why a player isn't a Hall of Famer can be answered simply by scrolling back up to the top of the column.
My favorite Pro:
During his career, Biggio was a seven-time All-Star, won five Silver Sluggers and four Gold Gloves and finished in the top 16 of MVP voting five times.
My favorite Con:
While Biggio was a prolific hitter, he was only a good player (no top 3 finishes in MVP voting) and he doesn't have much else to commend him to the Hall.
It's a debate, so presumably the point of the column is to say that there are qualities for and against certain players. But it's fun when one of your points for why a player isn't a Hall of Famer can be answered simply by scrolling back up to the top of the column.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Astros acquire John Ely
Today the Astros acquired SP John Ely from the Dodgers in exchange for Rob Rasmussen (who was acquired in the Carlos Lee/Marlins trade).
Ely, a 26-year old 6'2" 200lb RHP, debuted for the Dodgers in 2010, going 4-10 in 18 starts. He threw 15.1IP at the Major-League level in 2011-12 with not-great results (2.2IP, 6H/6ER, 3K:4BB).
Aha! But at Triple-A Albuquerque in 2012, Ely was 14-7 with a 3.20 ERA/1.10 WHIP, with 165K:36BB in 168.2IP, for a 4.58 K:BB ratio. This earned him the pitching triple crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts) and the PCL Pitcher of the Year. Even better, he has an option remaining, so he can make a trip between Houston and OKC, if need be.
Rob Rasmussen, 23, threw 54.1IP for Corpus in 2012 after coming over from Miami's organization, jumping a level from High-A Jupiter to Double-A Corpus. In his time as a Hook, Rasmussen had a 4.80 ERA/1.40 WHIP, with 44K:18BB.
The SP candidate list is now getting a little clogged because, as of now, here are the SPs with a chance to make the rotation:
John Ely, Lucas Harrell, Philip Humber, Dallas Keuchel, Jordan Lyles, Bud Norris, and Alex White. (This list includes the possibility that Cosart could get a shot at the closer role.)
That's a lot of young pitching. In fact, Lucas Harrell is the oldest of the lot, at 27. Philip Humber is the oldest, at 30.
Rasmussen was not on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding roster move will have to be made.
Ely, a 26-year old 6'2" 200lb RHP, debuted for the Dodgers in 2010, going 4-10 in 18 starts. He threw 15.1IP at the Major-League level in 2011-12 with not-great results (2.2IP, 6H/6ER, 3K:4BB).
Aha! But at Triple-A Albuquerque in 2012, Ely was 14-7 with a 3.20 ERA/1.10 WHIP, with 165K:36BB in 168.2IP, for a 4.58 K:BB ratio. This earned him the pitching triple crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts) and the PCL Pitcher of the Year. Even better, he has an option remaining, so he can make a trip between Houston and OKC, if need be.
Rob Rasmussen, 23, threw 54.1IP for Corpus in 2012 after coming over from Miami's organization, jumping a level from High-A Jupiter to Double-A Corpus. In his time as a Hook, Rasmussen had a 4.80 ERA/1.40 WHIP, with 44K:18BB.
The SP candidate list is now getting a little clogged because, as of now, here are the SPs with a chance to make the rotation:
John Ely, Lucas Harrell, Philip Humber, Dallas Keuchel, Jordan Lyles, Bud Norris, and Alex White. (This list includes the possibility that Cosart could get a shot at the closer role.)
That's a lot of young pitching. In fact,
Rasmussen was not on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding roster move will have to be made.
Blue Jays claim Mickey Storey
Mickey Storey's wild ride continues, as he is now a member of the Blue Jays, having been claimed since the Astros DFAed him.
Since the end of the season, Storey has been a member of the Astros, Yankees, Astros again, and now Blue Jays.
Since the end of the season, Storey has been a member of the Astros, Yankees, Astros again, and now Blue Jays.
Astros long World Series odds
Bovada released their MLB Futures Odds this morning (can't get the link - at work), and 29 teams are within 100/1 to win. One team is listed at 200/1, and I think you know where this is going...
Yes, your Astros have been listed at 200/1 to win the 2013 World Series.
Yes, your Astros have been listed at 200/1 to win the 2013 World Series.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Astros to sign Jose Veras
Via MLBTR (and many on Twitter), here is ESPN Deportes' Enrique Rojas' report that the Astros and reliever Jose Veras have agreed on a 1-year contract.
The details (according to Rojas):
2013: $1.85m guaranteed
2014: Team option for $3.25m with a $150,000 buyout.
Veras, 32, is arbitration-eligible in 2013 (well, not anymore), but will be a free agent in 2014. In 327 appearances in his seven-year career, Veras has a 4.01 career ERA, with a 1.36 WHIP. In his last three seasons, he has thrown 186IP, allowing 147H/77ER, with 16 HR allowed. Notably, he struck out 212 batters in those 186IP, walking 103 batters - that's over 10.0 K/9 in each of the last three seasons.
Read this piece to find out Veras sucks and so do the Astros.
This means that the Astros will have to make a roster move. Maybe Fernando Rodriguez? Maybe they double designate Mickey Storey for assignment?
The details (according to Rojas):
2013: $1.85m guaranteed
2014: Team option for $3.25m with a $150,000 buyout.
Veras, 32, is arbitration-eligible in 2013 (well, not anymore), but will be a free agent in 2014. In 327 appearances in his seven-year career, Veras has a 4.01 career ERA, with a 1.36 WHIP. In his last three seasons, he has thrown 186IP, allowing 147H/77ER, with 16 HR allowed. Notably, he struck out 212 batters in those 186IP, walking 103 batters - that's over 10.0 K/9 in each of the last three seasons.
Read this piece to find out Veras sucks and so do the Astros.
This means that the Astros will have to make a roster move. Maybe Fernando Rodriguez? Maybe they double designate Mickey Storey for assignment?
Update to Hall of Fame Roll Call
We've updated the Hall of Fame Roll Call to include confirmed new votes for Bagwell from last year. So far, so good, as he has already picked up two yes votes out the 11 we have uncovered. Keep checking as we scour the internet for votes.
Want to see Carlos Correa go HAM on a flyball?
Via a variety of people, here's a ridiculous play by the 2012 draft's 1-1 Carlos Correa:
Bye bye, Aneury Rodriguez
With a captip to Brian Hamilton, we find this tweet from MyKBO that Aneury Rodriguez has signed a contract for 2013 with the Samsung Lions.
A-Rod (yep) threw 85.1IP for the Astros in 2011, after being claimed as a Rule 5 pick from the Rays, with a 5.27 ERA/1.35 WHIP. He made one start in 2012, allowing two hits (both homers) against the Marlins. He went 4-7 for OKC, allowing 130H/68ER in 92.2IP, "good enough" for a 6.60 ERA/1.88 WHIP during the rest of 2012.
A-Rod (yep) threw 85.1IP for the Astros in 2011, after being claimed as a Rule 5 pick from the Rays, with a 5.27 ERA/1.35 WHIP. He made one start in 2012, allowing two hits (both homers) against the Marlins. He went 4-7 for OKC, allowing 130H/68ER in 92.2IP, "good enough" for a 6.60 ERA/1.88 WHIP during the rest of 2012.
Brian McTaggart goes on vacation, gives us a heart attack
Brian McTaggart went on vacation yesterday. But before he left, he gave us this sweet little Twitter treat.
Here's the story on the#Astros signing of Carlos Lee, with video of the press conference houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.j
Well, of course the Astros signed Carlos Pena, and not Carlos Lee. And of course it was a typo, brought on by six years of psychological pain of seeing El Caballo in an Astros jersey. And isn't it telling that, for however brief a moment, we thought it was actually possible that the Astros brought back Lee?
Here's the story on the#Astros signing of Carlos Lee, with video of the press conference houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.j
Well, of course the Astros signed Carlos Pena, and not Carlos Lee. And of course it was a typo, brought on by six years of psychological pain of seeing El Caballo in an Astros jersey. And isn't it telling that, for however brief a moment, we thought it was actually possible that the Astros brought back Lee?
Monday, December 17, 2012
Not so fast about Berkman...
Just because the Astros signed Carlos Pena doesn't mean they're out of the Berkman Sweepstakes, says Ken Rosenthal.
Berkman has spoken of retiring to spend more time with his family. Astros, even with C. Pena, open to his return.
Heyman is even in on it:
Lance Berkman, an alltime astro, recently met with owner Jim Crane. word is, berkman still not 100 pct sure he's playing
So here's the situation: Berkman isn't sure if he wants to play, but met with Jim Crane, anyway, who remains interested. I have absolutely no basis for this speculation, but I'm guessing the Astros wanted an answer about his intentions, he couldn't commit either way, and the Astros had to move on Carlos Pena rather than get left with their, uh, bat swinging.
Update: Luhnow told Daniel Gotera that the "door isn't completely closed" and that they will touch base (ha ha baseball term) in January.
Berkman has spoken of retiring to spend more time with his family. Astros, even with C. Pena, open to his return.
Heyman is even in on it:
Lance Berkman, an alltime astro, recently met with owner Jim Crane. word is, berkman still not 100 pct sure he's playing
So here's the situation: Berkman isn't sure if he wants to play, but met with Jim Crane, anyway, who remains interested. I have absolutely no basis for this speculation, but I'm guessing the Astros wanted an answer about his intentions, he couldn't commit either way, and the Astros had to move on Carlos Pena rather than get left with their, uh, bat swinging.
Update: Luhnow told Daniel Gotera that the "door isn't completely closed" and that they will touch base (ha ha baseball term) in January.
Astros have talked about Bud Norris
Jon Heyman had a little throwaway tweet a few minutes ago, where he mentions that the Astros "would have to be overwhelmed" by an offer for Jed Lowrie, but have talked to the Rangers and Cardinals about Bud Norris.
Bud Norris isn't going to help the Astros win a championship. And while he might be a #2 starter for the Astros, he's probably a #3-4 on most contending teams. So why not send him to a team with a deep system - even if they're within the division - for young building blocks?
Bud Norris isn't going to help the Astros win a championship. And while he might be a #2 starter for the Astros, he's probably a #3-4 on most contending teams. So why not send him to a team with a deep system - even if they're within the division - for young building blocks?
Well that lasted all of four minutes
So I guess that 2:00pm press conference is to announce (via Danny Knobler) that the Astros have signed Carlos Pena on a 1-year/$2.9m incentive-laden deal that could be worth up to $4.3m.
Pena, 34, will shuffle between 1B and DH.
In parts of 12 major-league seasons (1386 games, 5502 PAs), Pena has a .234/.350/.472 slash line, with 1474 strikeouts - a 26.8% strikeout rate. Pena broke out in 2007, hitting .282/.411/.627 for Tampa Bay, with 46 homers - and he would hit 70 homers over the course of 2008-2009.
That said, he's had batting averages below .200 in 2010 (.196) and 2012 (.197), while his 94 OPS+ in 2012 was the lowest of his career. Of course, it's been since 2008 that Pena had a BABIP anywhere close to league-average. Pena's BABIP:
2008: .298
2009: .250
2010: .222
2011: .267
2012: .264
In April 2012, Pena had an OPS of .900. And then Evan Longoria got hurt and he (as well as the rest of the Rays) went in the toilet. He wouldn't post an OPS over .640 until September, when he bounced back for an .853 OPS.
So that's low, but it's also a four-year trend. We'll spend more time looking at Pena over the next few months because, you know, what else are we gonna do? But here are some takeaways:
1. The Astros are getting Pena CHEAP. Obviously his market was depressed because of 2010-2012, but Pena made $27.3m in those years. The Cubs and Rays signed him to fairly high-priced one-year deals in 2011 and 2012, which would indicate that he's worth seeing if he can recapture some old magic. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. But if he can't, it's less than $2m down the toilet, or what Carlos Lee would have made in about 20 games.
2. He does add power to the lineup, something of which the Astros don't have much. Justin Maxwell has some pop, but we still don't know if he can do it over the course of a full year.
3. Bye bye, Lance Berkman. Whether his knees couldn't hold up, or he and the Astros couldn't agree on a deal...we don't know (Update: Berkman is still undecided about playing in 2013). But Pena's going to DH, which means Berkman isn't. It also, thankfully, means that we won't have to get used to seeing Alfonso Soriano wearing the Tango Blast.
4. Pena knows the AL. I've been harping on this more than is probably helpful, but the Astros will need some guys who have actually faced American League teams. Pena has spent 11 of his 12 seasons in the American League.
5. Jon Singleton will likely not open the season with the Big league club. Wallace and Pena will split 1B/DH duties, and give Singleton a little Triple-A seasoning. But let's say that Pena defies expectations and has a solid first-half of the season. If the Astros are 120 games out of first place by mid-July, Pena's low-risk contract is easily tradeable for...yes, more prospects.
6. Someone has to get outrighted off the 40-Man Roster to make room, but don't expect this to be the last deal of the off-season. All this can be thrown out the window with Luhnow's next move. (UPDATE: Mickey Storey has been Designated for Assignment).
Pena, 34, will shuffle between 1B and DH.
In parts of 12 major-league seasons (1386 games, 5502 PAs), Pena has a .234/.350/.472 slash line, with 1474 strikeouts - a 26.8% strikeout rate. Pena broke out in 2007, hitting .282/.411/.627 for Tampa Bay, with 46 homers - and he would hit 70 homers over the course of 2008-2009.
That said, he's had batting averages below .200 in 2010 (.196) and 2012 (.197), while his 94 OPS+ in 2012 was the lowest of his career. Of course, it's been since 2008 that Pena had a BABIP anywhere close to league-average. Pena's BABIP:
2008: .298
2009: .250
2010: .222
2011: .267
2012: .264
In April 2012, Pena had an OPS of .900. And then Evan Longoria got hurt and he (as well as the rest of the Rays) went in the toilet. He wouldn't post an OPS over .640 until September, when he bounced back for an .853 OPS.
So that's low, but it's also a four-year trend. We'll spend more time looking at Pena over the next few months because, you know, what else are we gonna do? But here are some takeaways:
1. The Astros are getting Pena CHEAP. Obviously his market was depressed because of 2010-2012, but Pena made $27.3m in those years. The Cubs and Rays signed him to fairly high-priced one-year deals in 2011 and 2012, which would indicate that he's worth seeing if he can recapture some old magic. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. But if he can't, it's less than $2m down the toilet, or what Carlos Lee would have made in about 20 games.
2. He does add power to the lineup, something of which the Astros don't have much. Justin Maxwell has some pop, but we still don't know if he can do it over the course of a full year.
3. Bye bye, Lance Berkman. Whether his knees couldn't hold up, or he and the Astros couldn't agree on a deal...we don't know (Update: Berkman is still undecided about playing in 2013). But Pena's going to DH, which means Berkman isn't. It also, thankfully, means that we won't have to get used to seeing Alfonso Soriano wearing the Tango Blast.
4. Pena knows the AL. I've been harping on this more than is probably helpful, but the Astros will need some guys who have actually faced American League teams. Pena has spent 11 of his 12 seasons in the American League.
5. Jon Singleton will likely not open the season with the Big league club. Wallace and Pena will split 1B/DH duties, and give Singleton a little Triple-A seasoning. But let's say that Pena defies expectations and has a solid first-half of the season. If the Astros are 120 games out of first place by mid-July, Pena's low-risk contract is easily tradeable for...yes, more prospects.
6. Someone has to get outrighted off the 40-Man Roster to make room, but don't expect this to be the last deal of the off-season. All this can be thrown out the window with Luhnow's next move. (UPDATE: Mickey Storey has been Designated for Assignment).
Astros schedule press conference for 2pm
This seems like a big enough deal to at least make mention of, but the Astros are holding a press conference at 2pm today at Minute Maid Park, where Jeff Luhnow is going to make "an announcement."
No idea what said announcement is, or what it could entail. Might it be a Berkman signing? More front office changes? WHO KNOWS. But you can get your news right here, despite earlier mentions of brief hiatuseseses.
No idea what said announcement is, or what it could entail. Might it be a Berkman signing? More front office changes? WHO KNOWS. But you can get your news right here, despite earlier mentions of brief hiatuseseses.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Update on Alan Ashby
SB Nation traded some links, and so via a lot of places (here's TCB's write-up), the Blue Jays have given Alan Ashby to talk to the Astros about returning to the club.
Astros sign Dominican LHP Junior Garcia
Here's Ben Badler with a report that the Astros have signed 17-year old LHP Junior Garcia out of the Dominican Republic for $200,000.
The link takes you to the free write-up, but Garcia currently throws 86-88mph with an apparently decent curve.
The $200,000 comes out of the Astros' $2.9m bonus pool for international signings in 2012/13.
The link takes you to the free write-up, but Garcia currently throws 86-88mph with an apparently decent curve.
The $200,000 comes out of the Astros' $2.9m bonus pool for international signings in 2012/13.
Astros announce minor-league staff positions
Brian McTaggart is tweeting that the Astros have announced some positions on the minor-league side :
Paul Runge - Field Coordinator
Dyar Miller - Pitching Coordinator
Ralph Dickenson - Hitting Coordinator
Craig Bjornson - Roving Pitching Instructor
Jeff Albert - Roving Hitting Instructor
Brendan Verner - Strength/Conditioning
Jamey Snodgrass - Medical Coordinator
Daniel Roberts - Rehabilitation
This is Runge's third season as minor-league field coordinator. Bjornson was the bullpen coach in 2012 - and that's pretty much it as far as holdovers from the 2012 team.
Dyar Miller comes to the Astros from - surprise! - the Cardinals, where he was the bullpen coach in 2012, and was the only member of the Cardinals' staff who wasn't retained. Miller was the Cardinals' minor-league pitching coordinator for four years, and had spent 20 years with the organization.
Ralph Dickenson has been with the Blue Jays' organization as a coach for the last three years, and was the Nationals' minor-league hitting coordinator from 2007-2009 (Bo Porter connection?).
Jeff Albert had been the minor league hitting coach for the Cardinals' Florida State League team in Palm Beach since 2007.
Brendan Verner had been the strength & conditioning coach in the Pirates' system since 2009.
Paul Runge - Field Coordinator
Dyar Miller - Pitching Coordinator
Ralph Dickenson - Hitting Coordinator
Craig Bjornson - Roving Pitching Instructor
Jeff Albert - Roving Hitting Instructor
Brendan Verner - Strength/Conditioning
Jamey Snodgrass - Medical Coordinator
Daniel Roberts - Rehabilitation
This is Runge's third season as minor-league field coordinator. Bjornson was the bullpen coach in 2012 - and that's pretty much it as far as holdovers from the 2012 team.
Dyar Miller comes to the Astros from - surprise! - the Cardinals, where he was the bullpen coach in 2012, and was the only member of the Cardinals' staff who wasn't retained. Miller was the Cardinals' minor-league pitching coordinator for four years, and had spent 20 years with the organization.
Ralph Dickenson has been with the Blue Jays' organization as a coach for the last three years, and was the Nationals' minor-league hitting coordinator from 2007-2009 (Bo Porter connection?).
Jeff Albert had been the minor league hitting coach for the Cardinals' Florida State League team in Palm Beach since 2007.
Brendan Verner had been the strength & conditioning coach in the Pirates' system since 2009.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Jay Jaffe brings the noise about Bagwell
Here's an excellent piece about Bagwell and the Hall of Fame from SI's Jay Jaffe. Well worth your time...
There's that Norris-to-Cubs thing again...
We, collectively, didn't have a chance to post this from last night, but the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers tweeted:
Cubs don't match up well with Astros but expect them to try to land Bud Norris if the 'Stros make a serious effort to move him.
You can refer to the post directly underneath this one for a long discourse on the Astros and 2013 payroll, and Danny Knobler shooting this down. That said, Rogers was back at it this morning, pushing the Norris-to-Cubs possibility:
Could Alfonso Soriano and much of the $36 million he's owed be part of a Bud Norris trade? Makes sense but would Sori waive 10/5 rights?
Probably not. In the last 12 months Soriano has rejected trades to the Giants, Orioles, Pirates, and apparently prefers the East Coast. There's no reason to think he'd waive his 10/5 rights to come to Houston.
Cubs don't match up well with Astros but expect them to try to land Bud Norris if the 'Stros make a serious effort to move him.
You can refer to the post directly underneath this one for a long discourse on the Astros and 2013 payroll, and Danny Knobler shooting this down. That said, Rogers was back at it this morning, pushing the Norris-to-Cubs possibility:
Could Alfonso Soriano and much of the $36 million he's owed be part of a Bud Norris trade? Makes sense but would Sori waive 10/5 rights?
Probably not. In the last 12 months Soriano has rejected trades to the Giants, Orioles, Pirates, and apparently prefers the East Coast. There's no reason to think he'd waive his 10/5 rights to come to Houston.
"The Astros don't have enough money..."
Here's your daily WTF from the rumor mill regarding the Astros.
Via SB Nation Chicago, we get this Danny Knobler tweet from yesterday afternoon, when I was boycotting Twitter because nobody could shut up about OMG121212.
Cubs also shopped Soriano to Astros as a possible DH, but Astros don't have enough money (even with Cubs contributing a lot).
Let's think about this for a second. The SB Nation Chicago post mentions reports that the Cubs were willing to eat approximately $26m of the $36m currently owed Soriano (which Jon Heyman confirmed). If that report is accurate, it means that over the next two years, the Astros would be responsible for $5m per season to get Alfonso Soriano.
Barring some other deal, Jed Lowrie will be the highest-paid Astro in 2013...making around $2m, depending on arbitration. Wesley Wright and Bud Norris are also arbitration-eligible, but aren't exactly going to command Lincecum-style arbitration numbers. Baseball-Reference throws an educated guess at the combined salaries of Lowrie, Norris, and Wright at a combined $5.7m. Baseball-Reference also lists 25 players who will be making league-minimum.
Let's say - for math's sake - that Baseball-Reference is under by a few hundred thousand dollars, and those three will make right at $6m. Let's also just say the Astros aren't going to make any moves that would add players at more than $1m/year (since that's been their trend lately). The payroll would break down as such:
Three Arb-Eligibles: $6m
Philip Humber: $800K
21 players at League Minimum ($480K each): $10,080,000
Total payroll: $16,880,000
Even if the Astros get a hair in their pee-hole and sign Lance Berkman to a contract in the $5m range, that puts TOTAL PAYROLL at around $22m. Also, keep in mind that, if they don't sign Soriano or Berkman, the highest-paid player for the Astros in 2013 would be...the Pirates, who are receiving $5m of Wandy's 2013 salary.
Now, I dislike Alfonso Soriano as much as the next guy, but over the past three seasons, he posted an .801 OPS (113 OPS+), averaging 557 PAs in each season. The 2012 Astros didn't have anybody crack .800 in OPS. The closest to it was Matt Dominguez, who had a .787 OPS (111 OPS+), but did in 113 PAs.
I'm not saying that Soriano is the answer. If I'm hoping for things, first and foremost I'm hoping the report just isn't true. Should the report be true, I'm hoping that the Astros said they didn't have enough money to add Soriano because he's just not the type of player they're looking for, and felt like lying about it.
There are a few ways that I can see the Astros not having enough money for a $30m payroll:
1. The Astros are planning on tens of people in the stands every night in 2013.
2. They're not optimistic about CSN Houston reaching a deal with cable providers that people, you know, watch. On November 30, David Barron said 40% of the viewing area could get CSN Houston.If the new network doesn't make a deal with DirecTV, Dish Network, or AT&T Uverse, might that mean that the Astros would only get 40% of the $80m the Astros were to receive from CSN Houston (which would be $32m)?
3. I realize that Opening Day payroll is not the last line of expenses for a franchise's operations. The last-linked article in Item 2, the Astros are apparently going to invest $20m in the franchise next season. But we aren't taking into account any revenue-sharing.
There are a ton - LITERALLY 2000 POUNDS WORTH - of factors that we aren't considering. But given that payroll has fallen from $102m on Opening Day 2009, the Astros are either in financial trouble, or are unbending in their commitment to keep punting for field position until their prospects are ready.
Via SB Nation Chicago, we get this Danny Knobler tweet from yesterday afternoon, when I was boycotting Twitter because nobody could shut up about OMG121212.
Cubs also shopped Soriano to Astros as a possible DH, but Astros don't have enough money (even with Cubs contributing a lot).
Let's think about this for a second. The SB Nation Chicago post mentions reports that the Cubs were willing to eat approximately $26m of the $36m currently owed Soriano (which Jon Heyman confirmed). If that report is accurate, it means that over the next two years, the Astros would be responsible for $5m per season to get Alfonso Soriano.
Barring some other deal, Jed Lowrie will be the highest-paid Astro in 2013...making around $2m, depending on arbitration. Wesley Wright and Bud Norris are also arbitration-eligible, but aren't exactly going to command Lincecum-style arbitration numbers. Baseball-Reference throws an educated guess at the combined salaries of Lowrie, Norris, and Wright at a combined $5.7m. Baseball-Reference also lists 25 players who will be making league-minimum.
Let's say - for math's sake - that Baseball-Reference is under by a few hundred thousand dollars, and those three will make right at $6m. Let's also just say the Astros aren't going to make any moves that would add players at more than $1m/year (since that's been their trend lately). The payroll would break down as such:
Three Arb-Eligibles: $6m
Philip Humber: $800K
21 players at League Minimum ($480K each): $10,080,000
Total payroll: $16,880,000
Even if the Astros get a hair in their pee-hole and sign Lance Berkman to a contract in the $5m range, that puts TOTAL PAYROLL at around $22m. Also, keep in mind that, if they don't sign Soriano or Berkman, the highest-paid player for the Astros in 2013 would be...the Pirates, who are receiving $5m of Wandy's 2013 salary.
Now, I dislike Alfonso Soriano as much as the next guy, but over the past three seasons, he posted an .801 OPS (113 OPS+), averaging 557 PAs in each season. The 2012 Astros didn't have anybody crack .800 in OPS. The closest to it was Matt Dominguez, who had a .787 OPS (111 OPS+), but did in 113 PAs.
I'm not saying that Soriano is the answer. If I'm hoping for things, first and foremost I'm hoping the report just isn't true. Should the report be true, I'm hoping that the Astros said they didn't have enough money to add Soriano because he's just not the type of player they're looking for, and felt like lying about it.
There are a few ways that I can see the Astros not having enough money for a $30m payroll:
1. The Astros are planning on tens of people in the stands every night in 2013.
2. They're not optimistic about CSN Houston reaching a deal with cable providers that people, you know, watch. On November 30, David Barron said 40% of the viewing area could get CSN Houston.If the new network doesn't make a deal with DirecTV, Dish Network, or AT&T Uverse, might that mean that the Astros would only get 40% of the $80m the Astros were to receive from CSN Houston (which would be $32m)?
3. I realize that Opening Day payroll is not the last line of expenses for a franchise's operations. The last-linked article in Item 2, the Astros are apparently going to invest $20m in the franchise next season. But we aren't taking into account any revenue-sharing.
There are a ton - LITERALLY 2000 POUNDS WORTH - of factors that we aren't considering. But given that payroll has fallen from $102m on Opening Day 2009, the Astros are either in financial trouble, or are unbending in their commitment to keep punting for field position until their prospects are ready.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
John Sickels' Top 20 Astros prospects
John Sickels posted his Top 20 prospect list for the Astros yesterday. Click the link for the full description of the players, but here's the list:
1. Carlos Correa
2. Jon Singleton
3. George Springer
4. Jarred Cosart
5. Lance McCullers
6. Delino DeShields
7. Mike Foltynewicz
8. Nick Tropeano
9. Rio Ruiz
10. Domingo Santana
11. Jonathan Villar
12. Nolan Fontana
13. Asher Wojciechowski
14. Robbie Grossman
15. Marc Krauss
16. Vincent Velasquez
17. Adrian Houser
18. Ariel Ovando
19. Aaron West
20. Brady Rodgers
Sickels:
Now, that's what I call a rapid turnaround. In two years, this farm system has gone from empty to robust.
1. Carlos Correa
2. Jon Singleton
3. George Springer
4. Jarred Cosart
5. Lance McCullers
6. Delino DeShields
7. Mike Foltynewicz
8. Nick Tropeano
9. Rio Ruiz
10. Domingo Santana
11. Jonathan Villar
12. Nolan Fontana
13. Asher Wojciechowski
14. Robbie Grossman
15. Marc Krauss
16. Vincent Velasquez
17. Adrian Houser
18. Ariel Ovando
19. Aaron West
20. Brady Rodgers
Sickels:
Now, that's what I call a rapid turnaround. In two years, this farm system has gone from empty to robust.
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Alan Ashby might be returning to Houston
The Toronto Sun's Bob Elliott openly speculated last night on Twitter that Alan Ashby was in the mix to return to the Astros to be their broadcaster. We say "speculated" because Elliott made a statement, but curiously ended it with a question mark.
Ashby, 61, was the Sports anchor for KHTV in Houston from 1990 to 1992 and was the Astros' Color Commentator from 1998 to 2006, when he was allegedly let go for being openly critical about the team.
Ashby is currently in the middle of a five-year deal with the Blue Jays, which he signed in 2010.
Ashby, 61, was the Sports anchor for KHTV in Houston from 1990 to 1992 and was the Astros' Color Commentator from 1998 to 2006, when he was allegedly let go for being openly critical about the team.
Ashby is currently in the middle of a five-year deal with the Blue Jays, which he signed in 2010.
Chad Murphy, Am I Missing Something?
Chad Murphy lays out the Hall of Fame case for his father, and provides the following tidbit:
"Only player in history to compile a .300+ batting average, 30+ home runs, 120+ runs batted in, 130+ runs scored, 90+ bases on balls, and 30+ stolen bases in a single season, 1983"
Jeff Bagwell in 1999
.304 BA, 42 HR, 124 RBI, 143 R, 149 BB, 30 SB.
Maybe he needed 31 stolen bases to joint this exclusive club? Nope, just checked. Murphy had 30 SB in 83. And 90 BB. Chad, check your facts in your next open letter, okay?
UPDATE
Chad Murphy responded, and claimed he meant "only player in history up to that point [1983]", and did not mean to imply it had not been done since. He apologized for the ambiguity.
UPDATE
Chad Murphy responded, and claimed he meant "only player in history up to that point [1983]", and did not mean to imply it had not been done since. He apologized for the ambiguity.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Astros average salary is 1/10 of the Yankees' average salary
This isn't going to shock anybody, but the Astros' final payroll was pretty low in 2012. How low? The average salary in Major League Baseball was $3.2m. The Astros' average salary? $685,000. The Yankees' average salary was $6.9m.
Just to put this in perspective, MLB's minimum salary in 2012 was $480,000. Meaning that the average salary for the Astros was $205,000 above league minimum. The linked AP report says that the Astros' average salary was the lowest across the league since the 2006 Marlins.
As an aside: Of course it was. No team in full-on rebuilding mode should have a high payroll. In this case, the Astros got what they paid for.
Just to put this in perspective, MLB's minimum salary in 2012 was $480,000. Meaning that the average salary for the Astros was $205,000 above league minimum. The linked AP report says that the Astros' average salary was the lowest across the league since the 2006 Marlins.
As an aside: Of course it was. No team in full-on rebuilding mode should have a high payroll. In this case, the Astros got what they paid for.
Rangers official lets Astros know they got Justin Upton
According to Peter Gammons, an official from the Rangers called someone from the Astros on Wednesday night and said "We got Upton."
That's all the context I can give you. So what does it mean? A couple of possibilities:
1) The Rangers are a bunch of douches, and are calling the Astros to tell them of their acquisition of Justin Upton purely out of spite and to let the Astros know in no uncertain terms, "You guys are in some serious trouble now, were you not already in serious trouble before."
2) There is, in fact, a multi-team trade on the table involving Justin Upton. Thus, the Astros are somehow involved, and are about to trade somebody to someone else, and receive something back from that other team. And it involves the Rangers and Diamondbacks.
Either are strong possibilities.
UPDATE: ESPN Dallas's Ben Rogers tweeted:
WAIT! Source just called who talked to Gammons, who said: "They thought they had him, but it unraveled." Not sure why he didn't tweet that
That's all the context I can give you. So what does it mean? A couple of possibilities:
1) The Rangers are a bunch of douches, and are calling the Astros to tell them of their acquisition of Justin Upton purely out of spite and to let the Astros know in no uncertain terms, "You guys are in some serious trouble now, were you not already in serious trouble before."
2) There is, in fact, a multi-team trade on the table involving Justin Upton. Thus, the Astros are somehow involved, and are about to trade somebody to someone else, and receive something back from that other team. And it involves the Rangers and Diamondbacks.
Either are strong possibilities.
UPDATE: ESPN Dallas's Ben Rogers tweeted:
WAIT! Source just called who talked to Gammons, who said: "They thought they had him, but it unraveled." Not sure why he didn't tweet that
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Astros claim Mickey Storey
The Astros filled up the 40-Man roster today, after the two Rule 5 selections, and by claiming reliever Mickey Storey off waivers from the Yankees. Back in November, the Astros waived Storey, where he was claimed by the Yankees. Now the Astros get him back.
Storey, 26, threw 65IP for OKC in 2012, where he posted a 3.05 ERA/1.17 WHIP, with 72K:14BB. In 26 games for the Astros, Storey threw 30.1IP, allowing 27H/13ER, 34K:10BB, for a 3.86 ERA/1.22 WHIP - and was one of the bright spots in the bullpen.
Storey, 26, threw 65IP for OKC in 2012, where he posted a 3.05 ERA/1.17 WHIP, with 72K:14BB. In 26 games for the Astros, Storey threw 30.1IP, allowing 27H/13ER, 34K:10BB, for a 3.86 ERA/1.22 WHIP - and was one of the bright spots in the bullpen.
Astros sign Cameron Lamb
And with their 2nd pick in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft, the Astros selected 23-year old RHP Cameron Lamb from the Giants. Lamb, 23, comes to us from Australia (where the ball spins in the opposite direction).
Lamb spent 2012 between Rookie ball Salem-Keizer of the Low-A Northwest League. Between the two, he was 2-1 in 12 appearances (three starts). In 25.2IP, he allowed 18H/6ER, 19K:7BB, and no home runs. He had a 2.10 ERA/0.97 WHIP in 2012.
Lamb spent 2012 between Rookie ball Salem-Keizer of the Low-A Northwest League. Between the two, he was 2-1 in 12 appearances (three starts). In 25.2IP, he allowed 18H/6ER, 19K:7BB, and no home runs. He had a 2.10 ERA/0.97 WHIP in 2012.
Astros select Michael Burgess
With the first pick of the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, the Astros selected Michael Burgess from the Cubs.
Burgess turned 24 last October, and was the Nationals' 49th overall pick in the 2007 draft, and was traded to the Cubs in the Tom Gorzelanny deal. In six minor-league seasons, Burgess has hit .252/.344/.451, with 102 HRs, 63K:45BB.
At Double-A in 2012, however, Burgess hit .259/.350/.422, with 22 doubles and 10 homers. Against RHPs, he posted an .806 OPS (.654 OPS against LHBs).
The Scouting Book wrote:
Right now he's all power and no discipline, but that power is special enough -- Jim Bowden called it 'thunderous' -- that he's worth keeping an eye on.
The View from the Bleachers wrote:
After not even being considered a prospect a few short months ago, though, Burgess has turned himself into a prospect again. He will likely be in most Top 20 organizational lists, and could even sneak into the very back of a couple of Top 10s based upon a solid ceiling and his proximity to the Majors.
Burgess turned 24 last October, and was the Nationals' 49th overall pick in the 2007 draft, and was traded to the Cubs in the Tom Gorzelanny deal. In six minor-league seasons, Burgess has hit .252/.344/.451, with 102 HRs, 63K:45BB.
At Double-A in 2012, however, Burgess hit .259/.350/.422, with 22 doubles and 10 homers. Against RHPs, he posted an .806 OPS (.654 OPS against LHBs).
The Scouting Book wrote:
Right now he's all power and no discipline, but that power is special enough -- Jim Bowden called it 'thunderous' -- that he's worth keeping an eye on.
The View from the Bleachers wrote:
After not even being considered a prospect a few short months ago, though, Burgess has turned himself into a prospect again. He will likely be in most Top 20 organizational lists, and could even sneak into the very back of a couple of Top 10s based upon a solid ceiling and his proximity to the Majors.
Astros select Nate Freiman
With their 2nd pick in the Rule 5 draft, the Astros select Gigantor 6'7" 225lb righty Nate Freiman (who will be 26 at the end of the month) from the Padres, their 8th Round pick in the 2009 draft.
At Double-A San Antonio in 2012, Freiman hit .298/.370/.502 - with a .324 BABIP - in line with his career slash line of .294/.364/.482. Freiman hit 24 homers, and his HR total has increased in each of his first four seasons (11 in 2009, 14 in 2010, 22 in 2011, and 24 in 2012). He led the Texas League in games, hits, and RsBI.
The Padres apparently didn't think he'd be selected, but the Astros said they wouldn't have made a selection if Freiman wasn't available.
He has spent his entire minor-league career at 1B, with six appearances at DH.
At Double-A San Antonio in 2012, Freiman hit .298/.370/.502 - with a .324 BABIP - in line with his career slash line of .294/.364/.482. Freiman hit 24 homers, and his HR total has increased in each of his first four seasons (11 in 2009, 14 in 2010, 22 in 2011, and 24 in 2012). He led the Texas League in games, hits, and RsBI.
The Padres apparently didn't think he'd be selected, but the Astros said they wouldn't have made a selection if Freiman wasn't available.
He has spent his entire minor-league career at 1B, with six appearances at DH.
Astros select Josh Fields in Rule 5 draft
With the first pick in today's Rule 5 draft, the Astros selected 27-year old RHP Josh Fields, from the Red Sox.
Fields was the 20th overall pick by the Mariners in the 2008 draft. He was part of the three-team trade in 2011 that sent Erik Bedard to the Red Sox.
He spent time between Double-A and Triple-A in 2012. In Double-A, he went 3-3 in 32 games (all in relief), throwing 44.2IP, allowing 30H/13ER, with 59K:16BB. For Triple-A Pawtucket, Fields made ten appearances, throwing 13.2IP, allowing 8H/0ER, 19K:2BB, good enough for a 0.73 WHIP.
He throws a 93-95mph fastball that occasionally hits 96mph. Here's a nice little write-up from the Woonsocket Call, where he says:
That's been a dream of mine, to close in the big leagues.
Well, hey, he just might get that chance.
Fields was the 20th overall pick by the Mariners in the 2008 draft. He was part of the three-team trade in 2011 that sent Erik Bedard to the Red Sox.
He spent time between Double-A and Triple-A in 2012. In Double-A, he went 3-3 in 32 games (all in relief), throwing 44.2IP, allowing 30H/13ER, with 59K:16BB. For Triple-A Pawtucket, Fields made ten appearances, throwing 13.2IP, allowing 8H/0ER, 19K:2BB, good enough for a 0.73 WHIP.
He throws a 93-95mph fastball that occasionally hits 96mph. Here's a nice little write-up from the Woonsocket Call, where he says:
That's been a dream of mine, to close in the big leagues.
Well, hey, he just might get that chance.
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
In Defense of the Lopez Deal
The Wilton Lopez deal has come under some scrutiny, questioning the return for the Astros closer. I am not a scout, and don't have a feel for how Alex White will do outside of Coors Field, but I do believe that these are the kinds of deals that the Astros have to make right now. If we have any trust in the Astros scouting and player development side, which I do, I think we have to accept that this deal has the potential to help.
The thing about relievers is they are the most fungible assets a team has. A shutdown closer is a luxury for any team, and an unnecessary one for a rebuilding team. If the Astros can turn their closer into a young starting pitcher with upside, even one with question marks, I believe they have to do it. And I don't have any doubts that White has upside. His numbers were awful last year, but he was only 23 in Coors Field. His peripherals, if not his results, were better on the road. He has consistently dominated in the minors, and was a top 50 prospect as recently as 2011. Will he pan out? I have no idea, but he is in no way a lost cause.
Looking at this another way, the Astros traded 70 innings for 150 -180 innings. That has value, even if the quality of the pitching is not equivalent. In 2011, Wilton Lopez was very good, pitching 71 innings with a 2.79 era. He accumulated .5 WAR. In 2012, Alex White was horrible, pitching 98 innings with a 5.51 era. He accumulated .5 WAR. WAR is obviously not perfect, particularly when it comes to relievers, but it does demonstrate how much more valuable a starting pitcher is than a reliever. If we see even marginal improvement in White, combined with more innings, White can easily match the 1.4 WAR from Lopez's stellar 2012. (To put that in perspective, Bud Norris has 1.5 WAR last year. Can White match Norris' 2012? I sure hope so). None of this takes into account Lopez's health issues, which allegedly killed a previous deal, or the other Alex that came back in the deal.
At the end of the day, White might never live up to the high expectations he has had so recently, and this deal might be looked back on as an abject failure. But I still think that this is a deal that has to be made.
The thing about relievers is they are the most fungible assets a team has. A shutdown closer is a luxury for any team, and an unnecessary one for a rebuilding team. If the Astros can turn their closer into a young starting pitcher with upside, even one with question marks, I believe they have to do it. And I don't have any doubts that White has upside. His numbers were awful last year, but he was only 23 in Coors Field. His peripherals, if not his results, were better on the road. He has consistently dominated in the minors, and was a top 50 prospect as recently as 2011. Will he pan out? I have no idea, but he is in no way a lost cause.
Looking at this another way, the Astros traded 70 innings for 150 -180 innings. That has value, even if the quality of the pitching is not equivalent. In 2011, Wilton Lopez was very good, pitching 71 innings with a 2.79 era. He accumulated .5 WAR. In 2012, Alex White was horrible, pitching 98 innings with a 5.51 era. He accumulated .5 WAR. WAR is obviously not perfect, particularly when it comes to relievers, but it does demonstrate how much more valuable a starting pitcher is than a reliever. If we see even marginal improvement in White, combined with more innings, White can easily match the 1.4 WAR from Lopez's stellar 2012. (To put that in perspective, Bud Norris has 1.5 WAR last year. Can White match Norris' 2012? I sure hope so). None of this takes into account Lopez's health issues, which allegedly killed a previous deal, or the other Alex that came back in the deal.
At the end of the day, White might never live up to the high expectations he has had so recently, and this deal might be looked back on as an abject failure. But I still think that this is a deal that has to be made.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Meet the Alexes
Earlier tonight, the Astros traded Wilton Lopez and a PTBNL to the Rockies for RHPs Alex White and Alex Gillingham. Who are these guys?
Alex White
Alex White is a 24-year old RHP (6'3" 215lbs), and was the Indians' 1st Round pick in 2009. He was acquired by the Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal. He's not arbitration-eligible until 2015, and won't be a free agent until 2018.
In 23 games (20 starts), White threw 98IP, allowing 114H/60ER, for a 5.51 ERA/1.68 WHIP, with 64K:51BB. His FIP was a little better, 5.23, while his xFIP was 4.72.
Ben Badler tweeted: Alex White's stock has tumbled. Perception isn't as good as reality here.
Back in March, White was arrested on suspicion of drunk driving, coming in at a .174 BAL. GM Dan O'Dowd said:
We have not seen any indication of this since we got the kid. He's been a choirboy, but he screwed up.
And everyone lived happily ever after.
Alex Gillingham
Gillingham is a 23-year old 6'3" 200lb RHP, drafted in the 11th Round of the 2011 draft by Colorado.
For Low-A Asheville in the South Atlantic League in 2012, Gillingham was 6-8 in 19 starts with a 3.66 ERA (3.43 FIP), allowing 122H/50ER in 123IP, with 83K:28BB. Gillingham allowed just five homers in all of 2012, good for a 0.4 HR/9 rate.
Alex White
Alex White is a 24-year old RHP (6'3" 215lbs), and was the Indians' 1st Round pick in 2009. He was acquired by the Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal. He's not arbitration-eligible until 2015, and won't be a free agent until 2018.
In 23 games (20 starts), White threw 98IP, allowing 114H/60ER, for a 5.51 ERA/1.68 WHIP, with 64K:51BB. His FIP was a little better, 5.23, while his xFIP was 4.72.
Ben Badler tweeted: Alex White's stock has tumbled. Perception isn't as good as reality here.
Back in March, White was arrested on suspicion of drunk driving, coming in at a .174 BAL. GM Dan O'Dowd said:
We have not seen any indication of this since we got the kid. He's been a choirboy, but he screwed up.
And everyone lived happily ever after.
Alex Gillingham
Gillingham is a 23-year old 6'3" 200lb RHP, drafted in the 11th Round of the 2011 draft by Colorado.
For Low-A Asheville in the South Atlantic League in 2012, Gillingham was 6-8 in 19 starts with a 3.66 ERA (3.43 FIP), allowing 122H/50ER in 123IP, with 83K:28BB. Gillingham allowed just five homers in all of 2012, good for a 0.4 HR/9 rate.
Wilton Lopez traded to the Rockies
A timeline of the Wilton Lopez trade to the Rockies:
10:27pm: McTaggart, quoting Luhnow, says White will be in the rotation. Luhnow says Ambriz and Cosart are possibilities for the now-vacant closer role in Houston.
10:11pm: @Rockies:
Rockies have acquired RHP Wilton Lopez and player to be named later or cash from HOU for RHPs Alex White and Alex Gillingham.
10:08pm: Troy Renck:
Rockies acquire Lopez for Alex White and a minor-league pitcher.
10:01pm: Troy Renck:
I expect Rockies to land Lopez...teams ironing out last few wrinkles.
9:53pm: Brian McTaggart:
Wilton Lopez to the Rockies. More to come.
9:26pm: Troy Renck:
Rockies would look to send two young pitchers to Houston for Lopez, a proven setup man. Parker Frazier would not be in deal.
9:11pm: Troy Renck tweets:
Rockies closing in on acquiring Wilton Lopez from Astros. Know that the Astros like AA pitcher Parker Frazier.
7:51pm: Troy Renck:
Rockies continue looking to add relief help and have talked with Astros about Wilton Lopez. If health fine, and told is OK, he'd help.
10:27pm: McTaggart, quoting Luhnow, says White will be in the rotation. Luhnow says Ambriz and Cosart are possibilities for the now-vacant closer role in Houston.
10:11pm: @Rockies:
Rockies have acquired RHP Wilton Lopez and player to be named later or cash from HOU for RHPs Alex White and Alex Gillingham.
10:08pm: Troy Renck:
Rockies acquire Lopez for Alex White and a minor-league pitcher.
10:01pm: Troy Renck:
I expect Rockies to land Lopez...teams ironing out last few wrinkles.
9:53pm: Brian McTaggart:
Wilton Lopez to the Rockies. More to come.
9:26pm: Troy Renck:
Rockies would look to send two young pitchers to Houston for Lopez, a proven setup man. Parker Frazier would not be in deal.
9:11pm: Troy Renck tweets:
Rockies closing in on acquiring Wilton Lopez from Astros. Know that the Astros like AA pitcher Parker Frazier.
7:51pm: Troy Renck:
Rockies continue looking to add relief help and have talked with Astros about Wilton Lopez. If health fine, and told is OK, he'd help.
Goose Gossage is an idiot
You thought the BBWAA was the only lying sack of crap, didn't you? That they're giving mixed signals after remaining silent for so long regarding steroids, while standing idly by and watching home run after home run fly into McCovey's Cove - and now they're passing judgment on players?
We can add a Hall of Famer to that list: Goose Gossage.
Goose Gossage is kind of an idiot. Today he said that, were a "Steroid Guy" to be elected to the Hall of Fame, he would never go back to Cooperstown for Induction. Jim Bunning - himself an ignorant blowhard - apparently had a discussion with other Hall of Famers a couple of years ago, and said the same thing:
“The consensus in that room was, if they got in, (baseball commissioner) Bud Selig would have to greet whoever was inducted by himself. He’d be alone on the stage. None of the current members would show up.”
Except, hey, what do you know? At the press conference announcing his own induction to the Hall of Fame in 2008, he admitted:
"They weren't around in my time, but if they were I probably would have been tempted to use them...
The money is so great that it would be easy to be tempted. And who am I to say I wouldn't use them?..."If you did it, the best thing is to fess up and life will go on,"
Unless, of course, a jury decided that you weren't guilty of lying about taking steroids. That doesn't count.
Gossage, June 22, 2012:
"Even though he was found innocent, it was because of the bad testimony. No one believed (Brian) McNamee and (Andy) Pettitte kind of changed his thing, 'Did I really hear what he told me.'... Cheaters? Does a test count when you get busted for cheating on a test. No and neither should steroids. There is no place for them in the Hall of Fame...."
Gossage was asked again whether he would take steroids:
"I probably would have. Steroids weren't a part of the game when I was playing. Toward the end, we wondered what was going on. We knew something was going on. Absolutely, I probably would have."
So, just to get this straight:
1) Gossage, towards the end of his career, wondered what was going on with baseball.
2) But not enough to take a stand, or say anything about it.
3) And furthermore, "probably would have" taken steroids.
4) But Gossage's suspicions transcend legal boundaries, thus
5) Nobody should be allowed to join the club.
6) Jim Bunning is a jacknut.
How do you expect the BBWAA to sort all this out when the Hall of Famers themselves contradict themselves?
We can add a Hall of Famer to that list: Goose Gossage.
Goose Gossage is kind of an idiot. Today he said that, were a "Steroid Guy" to be elected to the Hall of Fame, he would never go back to Cooperstown for Induction. Jim Bunning - himself an ignorant blowhard - apparently had a discussion with other Hall of Famers a couple of years ago, and said the same thing:
“The consensus in that room was, if they got in, (baseball commissioner) Bud Selig would have to greet whoever was inducted by himself. He’d be alone on the stage. None of the current members would show up.”
Except, hey, what do you know? At the press conference announcing his own induction to the Hall of Fame in 2008, he admitted:
"They weren't around in my time, but if they were I probably would have been tempted to use them...
The money is so great that it would be easy to be tempted. And who am I to say I wouldn't use them?..."If you did it, the best thing is to fess up and life will go on,"
Unless, of course, a jury decided that you weren't guilty of lying about taking steroids. That doesn't count.
Gossage, June 22, 2012:
"Even though he was found innocent, it was because of the bad testimony. No one believed (Brian) McNamee and (Andy) Pettitte kind of changed his thing, 'Did I really hear what he told me.'... Cheaters? Does a test count when you get busted for cheating on a test. No and neither should steroids. There is no place for them in the Hall of Fame...."
Gossage was asked again whether he would take steroids:
"I probably would have. Steroids weren't a part of the game when I was playing. Toward the end, we wondered what was going on. We knew something was going on. Absolutely, I probably would have."
So, just to get this straight:
1) Gossage, towards the end of his career, wondered what was going on with baseball.
2) But not enough to take a stand, or say anything about it.
3) And furthermore, "probably would have" taken steroids.
4) But Gossage's suspicions transcend legal boundaries, thus
5) Nobody should be allowed to join the club.
6) Jim Bunning is a jacknut.
How do you expect the BBWAA to sort all this out when the Hall of Famers themselves contradict themselves?
Deshaies reaction, updates
Some reaction to the engagement of James Deshaies and the Chicago Cubs, of Chicago.
Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan:
The Astros never were really competitive with their offer, one source said, believing Deshaies' ties to the organization would keep him from leaving.
Houston Press:
(The) pair was a match made in broadcast heaven. But, like all things with the Astros over the last couple of years, the only constant is change on the field and in the broadcast booth.
Chicago Sun-Times:
Industry insiders viewed Deshaies as “wild-card’’ candidate considering his lack of Cubs ties, and one Chicago sports TV veteran called it “shocking’’ to see him win the job over former Cubs Eric Karros and Todd Hollandsworth.
Len Kasper:
“While JD is not a former Cub, he’s been in our division since he started pitching for the Astros. He’ll hit the ground running as far as knowledge of the Cubs, but I’m going to enjoy working with him. It’s going to be a lot of fun. It will take time to build chemistry in the booth, but we get three hours a day to do it.”
Houston Sports Counterplot:
Crane foolishly chose to play his own version of “businessman chicken” with one of his prized assets. And now that Deshaies has flown the coop for the Cubs, all that’s left for Crane is crow.
What the Heck, Bobby:
Seriously, I love what Luhnow is doing on the baseball side, but Crane needs to start getting some good PR and he needs to start getting it soon. Other than the uniforms, it's been the drip, drip, drip of Chinese water torture on Astros fans.
Crawfish Boxes:
It's good to hear that the Astros gave it the ol' college try, but fans will nontheless be jaded by the Astros perceived disregard of the their opinions. We've lost so much - and this is just another kidney punch. We're getting used to them.
Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan:
The Astros never were really competitive with their offer, one source said, believing Deshaies' ties to the organization would keep him from leaving.
Houston Press:
(The) pair was a match made in broadcast heaven. But, like all things with the Astros over the last couple of years, the only constant is change on the field and in the broadcast booth.
Chicago Sun-Times:
Industry insiders viewed Deshaies as “wild-card’’ candidate considering his lack of Cubs ties, and one Chicago sports TV veteran called it “shocking’’ to see him win the job over former Cubs Eric Karros and Todd Hollandsworth.
Len Kasper:
“While JD is not a former Cub, he’s been in our division since he started pitching for the Astros. He’ll hit the ground running as far as knowledge of the Cubs, but I’m going to enjoy working with him. It’s going to be a lot of fun. It will take time to build chemistry in the booth, but we get three hours a day to do it.”
Houston Sports Counterplot:
Crane foolishly chose to play his own version of “businessman chicken” with one of his prized assets. And now that Deshaies has flown the coop for the Cubs, all that’s left for Crane is crow.
What the Heck, Bobby:
Seriously, I love what Luhnow is doing on the baseball side, but Crane needs to start getting some good PR and he needs to start getting it soon. Other than the uniforms, it's been the drip, drip, drip of Chinese water torture on Astros fans.
Crawfish Boxes:
It's good to hear that the Astros gave it the ol' college try, but fans will nontheless be jaded by the Astros perceived disregard of the their opinions. We've lost so much - and this is just another kidney punch. We're getting used to them.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Astros listening on Bud Norris
Yahoo's Jeff Passan is tweeting that the Astros are listening to inquiries on Bud Norris - and that the teams that come calling will be influenced by Greinke. (Link forthcoming)
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