With roughly 5% of the 575 total Hall of Fame electorate having released their ballot, its high time to release a summary of what we've learned so far.
We have Bagwell and Biggio both over 80% based on the ballots we have found. This is obviously a very good start. Repoz, at BBTF, reports lower figures for over 6% of the voters, with Bagwell at 74% and Biggio at 65%. Still within striking distance, but not as promising.
The majority of writers have focused their write-ups on Clemens, Bonds,etc., so we don't have a good feel for why the voters are saying yea or nay to Biggio and Bagwell. Only one, Pat Caputo, has explicity brought up steroids. You know what we have to say about that. One voter, Bob Klapisch, has said Biggio is not a first ballot Hall of Famer, and plans to vote for him next year. I hate this reasoning, but its common. My expectation is that if Biggio does not get in this year, it will not be steroids or anti-Houston bias, but rather this first ballot nonsense keeping him out. Keep in mind that Alomar and Larkin both got in on their second try.