For those of you who don't remember, this preseason I attempted my first prospect rankings. Check them out here. While I cringe going back and looking at some of these now, if you don't push yourself you'll never get better. With that in mind, let's take a look at how these guys have done so far this season.
25. Jonathan Villar
If his first couple games in Houston are any indication, I severely underestimated Villar, and many of you will say "I told you so". In 91 games at OKC, Villar hit .277/.341/.442 with 32 extra base hits and 31 steals while taking positive steps forward with his defense, reducing his errors while increasing his range factor and fielding percentage. He still strikeouts out quite a bit, but his strong walk rate tempers concerns about his aggressiveness. In two games with Houston, Villar is hitting .500 with two doubles, a steal, and three runs while helping turn five double plays and sparking the Astros win over Oakland last night (7/23). And he's already .7 WAR better than Ronny Cedeno.
24. Marc Krauss
Krauss was being Krauss in OKC, hitting .277/.393/.488 with nine homers, 43 walks, and 45 strikeouts before being called up to Houston in June. With the Astros it's safe to say he's struggled, with the biggest indication being that he's drawn just one walk in 39 plate appearances while hitting .158/.179/.263. I still think he's got a shot at being a backup corner outfielder and good bench bat, but right now he looks over matched.
23. Jiovanni Mier
There's still time, but my infatuation with Mier is beginning to wane. Facing the more advanced pitching at AA, Mier has not yet been able to adjust. His strikeouts have soared while he's hit just .203/.301/.280, though his defense has remained relatively steady. He is still about two years younger than his competition, so if he has to repeat at Corpus it's not the end of the world, but it's time for him to take hold of his future.
22. Joe Musgrove
Musgrove, who is apparently still recovering from last year's injury, has made just three appearances for the GCL Astros. In nine innings, he has a 7.00 ERA with seven strikeouts and two walks.
21. Chia-Jen Lo
Lo continues his climb back from his severe arm injury, making stops this season at Tri-City and Quad Cities before arriving in Corpus. Combined, he's 13.2 innings with a 3.95 ERA with 17 strikeouts and just two walks.
20. Tyler Heineman
Heineman has continued his strong showing this season at Lancaster. He's thrown out 38% of base stealers while hitting .266/.347/.426, trading some in batting average for further development of his power, having hit nine homers after none last season. Catching depth has improved over the last couple seasons, and Heineman continues to be one of the better backstops in the system.
19. Robbie Grossman
Grossman saw some time in Houston earlier this season, and I think actually did a little better than many gave him credit for. While he struggled to make contact, he showed his ability to draw a walk as he hit .198/.310/.243 in 28 games. In OKC this year, he's hit .271/.389/.354 with 13 stolen bases. Given the lack of production from the outfield this season, I would not be surprised to see Grossman given another shot back in Houston soon.
18. Carlos Perez
Perez started the season at Corpus, but was quickly moved up to OKC. Combined, he's hit .260/.331/.351 while keeping his walk and strikeout rates relatively steady. His work behind the plate continues to show improvement, as he's allowed just six passed balls and thrown out 47% of base stealers. It would be nice to see his power come back around. When that happens, the Astros will have a very nice catcher waiting in the wings.
17. Ariel Ovando
Signing Ovando for what was, at the time, the largest international bonus in Astros history is beginning to look like a mistake. After looking over matched at Quad Cities, Ovando was sent back to Greeneville, where he's continued to look helpless at the plate. He's hitting just .176/.244/.244 with 82 strikeouts in 250 at bats.
16. Josh Fields
Fields spent some time early in the season on the DL and he's struggled mightily since returning. In 16.1 innings, he has a 6.61 ERA with 13 strikeouts. The big concern for Fields coming into the season was his control, but he's managed to keep his walks at a respectable 2.8 per nine innings. What has hurt him so far is his home run rate; he's allowed five homers so far this season, all in his last nine games. When he figures out how to keep the ball in the park, something he never really had a problem with in the minors, he should be much more productive.
15. Kevin Chapman
Chapman has been productive at OKC, but there are still a few things he needs to work on before he can be considered a reliable option for the Houston bullpen. In 43.1 innings, he has a 3.86 ERA with 51 strikeouts, but he's walked 32, good for a 6.6 BB/9 rate. Without improved control, he'll be inconsistent at best at the major league level.
14. Andrew Aplin
Aplin continues to show the polish befitting a college draftee, and his success this season has been a bit under the radar due to George Springer's great year. Aplin currently leads all Astros minor league hitters in runs scored while hitting .280/.374/.430 at Lancaster. In 465 plate appearances, he has 82 runs, 38 extra base hits, 78 RBI, 15 steals, and 63 walks against 50 strikeouts. His defense has also been solid, with six outfield assists and no errors. He should be in Corpus very soon.
13. Preston Tucker
Despite slowing down since his promotion to Corpus last month, Tucker has had a solid season. Combined, he's hitting .303/.366/.510 with 18 home runs. His walk, strikeout, and power rates have held pretty much steady since arriving in Corpus, and I imagine his production there will come around soon.
12. Austin Wates
Wates started the season in Corpus for a month, then was promoted to OKC, though he's been on the DL since early June with a broken arm suffered when he was hit by a pitch. In 38 games before his injury, Wates hit .309/.397/.412 with 15 steals.
11. Nolan Fontana
Fontana continues to be an OBP machine in Lancaster. In 75 games, he's hitting .276/.429/.412 with 73 walks and 67 runs scored. His defense has been less than desired this season, as he's committed 13 errors.
10. Nick Tropeano
Tropeano has struggled a bit recently at Corpus, though his peripheral stats look to be right in line with his numbers last season, with a small dip in strikeout rates. In 91.2 innings, he has a 4.03 ERA with 84 strikeouts and 26 walks.
9. Jarred Cosart
After showing improvement at OKC for the first half of the season, Cosart earned his promotion to Houston just before the All-Star game and quickly made his presence known, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. At OKC, he had a 3.29 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 93 innings. In his two starts so far for Houston he's sporting a 0.60 ERA as the Astros have won both games he's pitched.
8. Nate Freiman
Freiman ended up being claimed by Oakland during spring training. In 51 games for the A's he's hitting .271/.317/.388 with two home runs...both against Houston.
7. Domingo Santana
While not the step forward I was hoping for from Santana, his performance in Corpus has not been a disaster, either. There was some concern, given Santana's propensity to strikeout, that he would be completely exposed by the more advanced pitching at AA, but that hasn't entirely been the case. In 83 games, Santana is hitting .233/.335/.437 with 14 home runs, though he's struck out 112 times in 309 at bats. He's still just 20 years old, so it may make sense for him to spend another season in Corpus.
6. Mike Foltynewicz
Folty has taken his game to a new level, especially since his promotion to Corpus. In 94 innings, combined across two levels, Folty's ERA is 3.06 and he's struck out 98. In Corpus he's pitched to a 2.78 ERA. If he keeps this up, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in OKC by the end of the year, especially if Jeff Luhnow deals some or all of Bud Norris, Erik Bedard, and Lucas Harrell.
5. George Springer
Springer is a stud. Splitting time between Corpus and OKC, he's making a bid to be the first minor leaguer with 30 home runs and 30 steals since 2009. In 97 games, Springer is hitting .307/.407/.606 with 27 homers and 32 steals. Jeff Luhnow has said Springer will be up this season, probably in September, but I wouldn't be surprised if he forces his way into the lineup sooner.
4. Lance McCullers Jr.
McCullers has done well in his first full season at Quad Cities. In 83.2 innings, he has a 3.01 ERA with 95 strikeouts. As with many of the top minor league starters, he could see a promotion soon depending on if and when Norris, Bedard, and/or Harrell are traded.
3. Delino DeShields Jr.
DDJ started out slowly at Lancaster but has improved over the course of the season. On the year, he's hitting .286/.378/.396 with 35 steals. He was also named to this years Futures game.
2. Carlos Correa
Correa also started out slowly, but has been on fire since May. Correa, who was voted by the fans to the Futures game, is hitting .318/.409/.464 with 28 extra base hits and eight steals.
1. Jon Singleton
Singleton missed the first 50 games of the season after being suspended for marijuana use. Since returning, he's struggled a bit since arriving in OKC, though with the time he missed that's not entirely unexpected. Across three levels, Singleton is hitting .224/.338/.415 with eight home runs in 219 plate appearance. With Carter and Wallace providing adequate production at first right now, there's no need to rush Singleton to Houston right now.
The biggest omission from my rankings was Asher Wojciechowski. Wojo currently has a 2.65 ERA between Corpus and OKC with 98 strikeouts in 118.2 innings. If he can keep this up, there's a good chance he'll see time in Houston soon, as early as this season.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label Top 25. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Top 25. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Astros County Top 25 Prospects: 10-1
Ok, I've teased this out enough now. Let's get down to business and check out the top 10.
10. Nick Tropeano
Tropeano took a big step forward in 2012, adding a few mph to his fastball which helps make his already good changeup that much tougher. Even more impressive was the way he excelled in Lancaster, which can chew up and spit out pitching prospects. He should get his first real test in 2013 at AA. Tropeano was a 5th round pick by Houston in 2011.
9. Jarred Cosart
Cosart is a fiery competitor with outstanding stuff that has never consistently translated to his results. Blister problems kept him from breaking out the way many hoped he would in 2012. That said, Cosart still has a chance to quickly become a top of the rotation starter or, should that fail, a good bullpen piece. Cosart will likely begin the year in AAA, though he has an outside shot of making the big club out of spring training. He was a 38th round pick by Philadelphia in 2008 and came to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade.
8. Nate Freiman
Freiman is a big first baseman which a very promising bat. He's consistently hit for good average with plenty of doubles, tape measure homeruns, and a respectable strikeout rate, especially for a big guy with power. As a rule 5 pick from the Padres organization, he'll be given a shot to stick on the roster out of spring training, though he's competing with Carlos Pena and Brett Wallace for playing time. Freiman was an 8th round pick by San Diego in 2009.
7. Domingo Santana
Santana is a corner outfielder with a huge swing that generates home runs and strikeouts. Despite being roughly three years younger than his competition, he has shown marked improvement each of the last two seasons. His real test will come this season as he faces AA pitching for the first time at just 20 years old. Santana was originally signed by Philadelphia out of the Dominican Republic and came to the Astros in the Hunter Pence trade.
6. Mike Foltynewicz
Folty made good strides in 2012 while repeating at Lexington. He's another starter who has the stuff to become a top of the rotation starter but can't quite figure out how to consistently dominate hitters. His mound presence can seem to get shaken at times, but I doubt that will be an issue going forward as he gains experience. There has been some talk that he could skip Lancaster and open the season in AA. Foltynewicz was the Astros' 1st round pick in 2010.
5. George Springer
Springer is often described as being a five tool prospect and he showed that potential in his first full season. At this point, the only real knock on his game is a high strikeout rate, although that's one fault that has ruined many a promising prospect as they face more advanced pitching. Springer will get a chance to test that theory as he starts the season in AA. Springer was the Astros 1st round pick in 2011.
4. Lance McCullers Jr
McCullers was regarded by some as one of the steals of the 2012 draft. With a triple digit fastball and developing slider and changeup, Lance has the chance to develop into a true #1 starter with a fallback as a closer. It will be interesting to see if Houston goes ahead and gives him a shot at full-season ball this year. McCullers was a supplemental 1st round pick for Houston in 2012.
3. Delino DeShields Jr
If not for the Reds' Billy Hamilton, DeShields would have been the biggest story in the minors this season. Not only did he steal over 100 bases, but his batting average, power, and defense at second all made significant strides in 2012. DeShields can be described as quiet but intense, though his body language can be a bit off-putting at times. He will likely start the season in Lancaster. DeShields was a 1st round pick by Houston in 2010.
2. Carlos Correa
I usually wait about a year before ranking any prospect this highly, but Correa has the chance to be something truly special. The size of a third baseman with the athleticism of a shortstop, combined with his big bat potential and first-class makeup should take this kid very far. It will be interesting to see how much the Astros push him through the system, as I could see him in either Tri-City or Quad Cities to start the year. Correa was the Astros 1st round pick in 2012.
1. Jon Singleton
Singleton continued his steady march towards the big leagues in 2012. We started to see the power potential materialize to match his strong batting average and walk rates. Singleton will start the season in AAA and has a good chance of seeing some time in Houston in September. He was originally drafted in the 8th round by Philadelphia in 2009 and came to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade.
So there you have it, the Astros County Top 25. I think this top 10, especially, is as strong as Houston has had in at least 20 years and should start getting the fans excited in the next couple years.
10. Nick Tropeano
Tropeano took a big step forward in 2012, adding a few mph to his fastball which helps make his already good changeup that much tougher. Even more impressive was the way he excelled in Lancaster, which can chew up and spit out pitching prospects. He should get his first real test in 2013 at AA. Tropeano was a 5th round pick by Houston in 2011.
9. Jarred Cosart
Cosart is a fiery competitor with outstanding stuff that has never consistently translated to his results. Blister problems kept him from breaking out the way many hoped he would in 2012. That said, Cosart still has a chance to quickly become a top of the rotation starter or, should that fail, a good bullpen piece. Cosart will likely begin the year in AAA, though he has an outside shot of making the big club out of spring training. He was a 38th round pick by Philadelphia in 2008 and came to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade.
8. Nate Freiman
Freiman is a big first baseman which a very promising bat. He's consistently hit for good average with plenty of doubles, tape measure homeruns, and a respectable strikeout rate, especially for a big guy with power. As a rule 5 pick from the Padres organization, he'll be given a shot to stick on the roster out of spring training, though he's competing with Carlos Pena and Brett Wallace for playing time. Freiman was an 8th round pick by San Diego in 2009.
7. Domingo Santana
Santana is a corner outfielder with a huge swing that generates home runs and strikeouts. Despite being roughly three years younger than his competition, he has shown marked improvement each of the last two seasons. His real test will come this season as he faces AA pitching for the first time at just 20 years old. Santana was originally signed by Philadelphia out of the Dominican Republic and came to the Astros in the Hunter Pence trade.
6. Mike Foltynewicz
Folty made good strides in 2012 while repeating at Lexington. He's another starter who has the stuff to become a top of the rotation starter but can't quite figure out how to consistently dominate hitters. His mound presence can seem to get shaken at times, but I doubt that will be an issue going forward as he gains experience. There has been some talk that he could skip Lancaster and open the season in AA. Foltynewicz was the Astros' 1st round pick in 2010.
5. George Springer
Springer is often described as being a five tool prospect and he showed that potential in his first full season. At this point, the only real knock on his game is a high strikeout rate, although that's one fault that has ruined many a promising prospect as they face more advanced pitching. Springer will get a chance to test that theory as he starts the season in AA. Springer was the Astros 1st round pick in 2011.
4. Lance McCullers Jr
McCullers was regarded by some as one of the steals of the 2012 draft. With a triple digit fastball and developing slider and changeup, Lance has the chance to develop into a true #1 starter with a fallback as a closer. It will be interesting to see if Houston goes ahead and gives him a shot at full-season ball this year. McCullers was a supplemental 1st round pick for Houston in 2012.
3. Delino DeShields Jr
If not for the Reds' Billy Hamilton, DeShields would have been the biggest story in the minors this season. Not only did he steal over 100 bases, but his batting average, power, and defense at second all made significant strides in 2012. DeShields can be described as quiet but intense, though his body language can be a bit off-putting at times. He will likely start the season in Lancaster. DeShields was a 1st round pick by Houston in 2010.
2. Carlos Correa
I usually wait about a year before ranking any prospect this highly, but Correa has the chance to be something truly special. The size of a third baseman with the athleticism of a shortstop, combined with his big bat potential and first-class makeup should take this kid very far. It will be interesting to see how much the Astros push him through the system, as I could see him in either Tri-City or Quad Cities to start the year. Correa was the Astros 1st round pick in 2012.
1. Jon Singleton
Singleton continued his steady march towards the big leagues in 2012. We started to see the power potential materialize to match his strong batting average and walk rates. Singleton will start the season in AAA and has a good chance of seeing some time in Houston in September. He was originally drafted in the 8th round by Philadelphia in 2009 and came to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade.
So there you have it, the Astros County Top 25. I think this top 10, especially, is as strong as Houston has had in at least 20 years and should start getting the fans excited in the next couple years.
Monday, December 31, 2012
Astros County Top 25 Prospects: 15-11
These five and the previous five are virtually interchangeable. As a matter of fact, if I were to re-rank this group, my number 15 would be number 20 today. If you missed it, check out the first two posts 25-21 and 20-16 first, then come back to check out this one.
15. Kevin Chapman
As a lefty reliever, Chapman finally showed some ability to get out right handed hitters in 2012, though his walk rate remains too high. Admittedly, it's risky to rank a minor league reliever this high, but with a floor as a lefty specialist I think Chapman has a good shot of reaching the majors some day. He was originally a 4th round pick by the Royals and came to the Astros in the Humberto Quintero deal. He should spend most of the season in AAA and has the chance to earn a cup of coffee this season.
14. Andrew Aplin
Aplin is a centerfielder with a little pop and a lot of speed. As is the case with many of the prospects added to the system recently, he also shows some patience at the plate. Aplin was taken in the 5th round of the 2012 draft by the Astros. He should spend the season in A ball.
13. Preston Tucker
Tucker is a corner outfielder with some power, a decent walk rate, and a low strikeout rate. I could see him and Aplin playing side by side for a few years to come. Tucker should also be in A ball in 2013. He was the Astros 7th round pick in 2012.
12. Austin Wates
Wates is best known for his Sportscenter Top Plays catch over the wall, but the attention he received afterwards is warranted. As a left fielder who can play a little center, Wates' best tools are his defense and his strong batting average. He's also very engaging with fans on Twitter. Wates was the 3rd round pick by Houston in 2010 and earned a shot at AAA pitching this year.
11. Nolan Fontana
Fontana got a lot of attention for walking 65 times in just 49 games in 2012. That said, he also struck out a lot and only hit .225, though that's a direct result of him taking so many pitches and working to two-strike counts. A more balanced approach will help this shortstop going forward. Picked in the 2nd round by the Astros in 2012, Fontana should spend the year in A ball.
15. Kevin Chapman
As a lefty reliever, Chapman finally showed some ability to get out right handed hitters in 2012, though his walk rate remains too high. Admittedly, it's risky to rank a minor league reliever this high, but with a floor as a lefty specialist I think Chapman has a good shot of reaching the majors some day. He was originally a 4th round pick by the Royals and came to the Astros in the Humberto Quintero deal. He should spend most of the season in AAA and has the chance to earn a cup of coffee this season.
14. Andrew Aplin
Aplin is a centerfielder with a little pop and a lot of speed. As is the case with many of the prospects added to the system recently, he also shows some patience at the plate. Aplin was taken in the 5th round of the 2012 draft by the Astros. He should spend the season in A ball.
13. Preston Tucker
Tucker is a corner outfielder with some power, a decent walk rate, and a low strikeout rate. I could see him and Aplin playing side by side for a few years to come. Tucker should also be in A ball in 2013. He was the Astros 7th round pick in 2012.
12. Austin Wates
Wates is best known for his Sportscenter Top Plays catch over the wall, but the attention he received afterwards is warranted. As a left fielder who can play a little center, Wates' best tools are his defense and his strong batting average. He's also very engaging with fans on Twitter. Wates was the 3rd round pick by Houston in 2010 and earned a shot at AAA pitching this year.
11. Nolan Fontana
Fontana got a lot of attention for walking 65 times in just 49 games in 2012. That said, he also struck out a lot and only hit .225, though that's a direct result of him taking so many pitches and working to two-strike counts. A more balanced approach will help this shortstop going forward. Picked in the 2nd round by the Astros in 2012, Fontana should spend the year in A ball.
Friday, December 28, 2012
Astros County Top 25 Prospects: 20-16
So, the last five spots generated quite a bit of discussion. If you missed it, go check it out first. Otherwise, let's get right down to business.
20. Tyler Heineman
Heineman quickly made his presence known in a big way with Tri-City. As a catcher, he threw out 41% of would be basestealers while putting up a monster OBP, spraying doubles, and showing a strong inability to strikeout. As an 8th round pick out of college, Heineman will likely move through the system quickly if he keeps up this level of production. He should start the year in A ball and could sneak into AA by the end of the season, though I think it's unlikely.
19. Robbie Grossman
Grossman is another high on-base ability prospect added this past season. He's played all three outfield positions relatively solidly and has the ability to steal a few bases as well. Originally a 6th round pick out of Cy-Fair High by the Pirates, Grossman was acquired in the Wandy Rodriguez trade. He spent the season in AA and should start in AAA next year, with an outside shot of seeing time as a late-season call-up.
18. Carlos Perez
Despite spending the season in High A ball, there was some concern Perez was a potential Rule 5 selection this off-season. Thankfully, that didn't happen so the Astros get to keep this strong catching prospect in the system. Perez has gained acclaim for his improved defensive ability while routinely hitting for a good average with a strong on-base percentage as well. Perez was originally signed out of Venezuela by Toronto and came to the Astros in the multi-player deal this past summer. Perez will likely start the year in AA.
17. Ariel Ovando
Ovando took steps towards fulfilling his massive potential as he repeated with Greeneville. Known for his massive power potential, Ovando is still quite raw. However, eyewitness reports indicate that he appeared much more focused this past season, both at the plate and in the field. Ovando was given a $2.6M signing bonus by the Astros when they inked him out of the Dominican Republic. I imagine Ovando will get his first test of full-season ball this year, likely with Quad Cities.
16. Josh Fields
Fields has the ability to put up eye-popping strikeout numbers, but always had control issues to go along with them. However, 2012 may have been the year he figured it out and started realizing the potential that led to him being a 1st round pick by Seattle in 2008. After being traded to Boston in 2011, Fields was selected by Houston in the 2012 Rule 5 draft. Assuming he doesn't implode during Spring Training and get returned to Boston, he'll break camp in 2013 as a member of the 25 man roster.
20. Tyler Heineman
Heineman quickly made his presence known in a big way with Tri-City. As a catcher, he threw out 41% of would be basestealers while putting up a monster OBP, spraying doubles, and showing a strong inability to strikeout. As an 8th round pick out of college, Heineman will likely move through the system quickly if he keeps up this level of production. He should start the year in A ball and could sneak into AA by the end of the season, though I think it's unlikely.
19. Robbie Grossman
Grossman is another high on-base ability prospect added this past season. He's played all three outfield positions relatively solidly and has the ability to steal a few bases as well. Originally a 6th round pick out of Cy-Fair High by the Pirates, Grossman was acquired in the Wandy Rodriguez trade. He spent the season in AA and should start in AAA next year, with an outside shot of seeing time as a late-season call-up.
18. Carlos Perez
Despite spending the season in High A ball, there was some concern Perez was a potential Rule 5 selection this off-season. Thankfully, that didn't happen so the Astros get to keep this strong catching prospect in the system. Perez has gained acclaim for his improved defensive ability while routinely hitting for a good average with a strong on-base percentage as well. Perez was originally signed out of Venezuela by Toronto and came to the Astros in the multi-player deal this past summer. Perez will likely start the year in AA.
17. Ariel Ovando
Ovando took steps towards fulfilling his massive potential as he repeated with Greeneville. Known for his massive power potential, Ovando is still quite raw. However, eyewitness reports indicate that he appeared much more focused this past season, both at the plate and in the field. Ovando was given a $2.6M signing bonus by the Astros when they inked him out of the Dominican Republic. I imagine Ovando will get his first test of full-season ball this year, likely with Quad Cities.
16. Josh Fields
Fields has the ability to put up eye-popping strikeout numbers, but always had control issues to go along with them. However, 2012 may have been the year he figured it out and started realizing the potential that led to him being a 1st round pick by Seattle in 2008. After being traded to Boston in 2011, Fields was selected by Houston in the 2012 Rule 5 draft. Assuming he doesn't implode during Spring Training and get returned to Boston, he'll break camp in 2013 as a member of the 25 man roster.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Astros County Top 25 Prospects: 25-21
What a difference a year makes! Since I know we have the smartest readers in the entire internet, I won't rehash just how needed this organizational overhaul was when Houston's rebuild was started a couple years ago. Not only do the Astros now have bona fide prospects knocking on the door, but quality depth on the farm as well. Sure, the last two years have been painful in The Juicebox, but the fans' patience should start paying off soon, with some of these kids making appearances as early as this coming season.
In order to add some semblance of structure to these rankings, I judged a list of about 50 players on four categories: ceiling, floor, production, and intangibles.
Because I don't feel like writing this as a novel, let's break it up a little so I can spend a couple seconds on each player.
25. Jonathan Villar
"But wait, how can you rank a guy 25th when the experts have him in their top 10?" Honestly, I'm not a Villar fan. The tools are definitely there, and I think he has one of the higher ceilings in the system, but I have doubts that he'll ever put it all together. Between his lackluster production to date, and his questionable make-up I still feel like he could flame out at any minute. But if he pulls it all together this year and proves me wrong, I'll be one of his biggest cheerleaders. This toolsy shortstop will probably spend the year in AAA, but he's still fairly raw. Villar was signed by Philadelphia out of the Dominican Republic and came to Houston in 2010 as part of the Roy Oswalt deal.
24. Marc Krauss
Marc is a power-hitting corner outfielder who is also capable of drawing a walk. After repeating at AA last year, he'll likely start the season at AAA and could show up in Houston late this season. He was a 2nd round pick for Arizona in 2009 and came to Houston in the Chris Johnson trade last year.
23. Jiovanni Mier
Yep, Mier ranked above Villar. That just happened. Prior to a pretty bad hamstring injury this season, Mier was showing us why he was a #1 pick in 2009 (Lancaster caveat). He's a more polished fielder at shortstop with a better eye at the plate and, in my opinion, a better makeup than Villar. His ceiling may not be as high, but I think he's more likely to stick around for a little while. Assuming Villar moves up to AAA, Mier will probably be in Corpus this year.
22. Joe Musgrove
Musgrove is a big right-handed starter who battled injuries in 2012. If his health comes back and, with it, his velocity as well he could start moving up the list. He was a supplemental first round pick for Toronto in 2011 and came to the Astros organization as part of the multi-player trade with the BlueJays this year. I doubt Musgrove plays full-season ball this year, so I'll say he starts the year with Tri-City.
21. Chia-Jen Lo
Lo has bounced around the prospect radar for a few years now. Remember when he was the winning pitcher in the same Futures game as Jason Castro? Well, since then he's thrown just 47 innings in the past three seasons. After injuries threatened to derail his career, he came roaring back in 2012. Lo was signed as a reliever out of Taiwan prior to the 2009 season. I'd expect him to start out at AA and could move up very quickly if his arm and production hold up. We may even see him in Houston in September.
In order to add some semblance of structure to these rankings, I judged a list of about 50 players on four categories: ceiling, floor, production, and intangibles.
Because I don't feel like writing this as a novel, let's break it up a little so I can spend a couple seconds on each player.
25. Jonathan Villar
"But wait, how can you rank a guy 25th when the experts have him in their top 10?" Honestly, I'm not a Villar fan. The tools are definitely there, and I think he has one of the higher ceilings in the system, but I have doubts that he'll ever put it all together. Between his lackluster production to date, and his questionable make-up I still feel like he could flame out at any minute. But if he pulls it all together this year and proves me wrong, I'll be one of his biggest cheerleaders. This toolsy shortstop will probably spend the year in AAA, but he's still fairly raw. Villar was signed by Philadelphia out of the Dominican Republic and came to Houston in 2010 as part of the Roy Oswalt deal.
24. Marc Krauss
Marc is a power-hitting corner outfielder who is also capable of drawing a walk. After repeating at AA last year, he'll likely start the season at AAA and could show up in Houston late this season. He was a 2nd round pick for Arizona in 2009 and came to Houston in the Chris Johnson trade last year.
23. Jiovanni Mier
Yep, Mier ranked above Villar. That just happened. Prior to a pretty bad hamstring injury this season, Mier was showing us why he was a #1 pick in 2009 (Lancaster caveat). He's a more polished fielder at shortstop with a better eye at the plate and, in my opinion, a better makeup than Villar. His ceiling may not be as high, but I think he's more likely to stick around for a little while. Assuming Villar moves up to AAA, Mier will probably be in Corpus this year.
22. Joe Musgrove
Musgrove is a big right-handed starter who battled injuries in 2012. If his health comes back and, with it, his velocity as well he could start moving up the list. He was a supplemental first round pick for Toronto in 2011 and came to the Astros organization as part of the multi-player trade with the BlueJays this year. I doubt Musgrove plays full-season ball this year, so I'll say he starts the year with Tri-City.
21. Chia-Jen Lo
Lo has bounced around the prospect radar for a few years now. Remember when he was the winning pitcher in the same Futures game as Jason Castro? Well, since then he's thrown just 47 innings in the past three seasons. After injuries threatened to derail his career, he came roaring back in 2012. Lo was signed as a reliever out of Taiwan prior to the 2009 season. I'd expect him to start out at AA and could move up very quickly if his arm and production hold up. We may even see him in Houston in September.
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