Monday, January 7, 2013

Chris Jaffe's HOF prediction piece

The Hardball Times' Chris Jaffe has, for the last few years, posted a HOF ballot prediction piece - which is exactly what it sounds like.

Here's his 2013 piece, and what it means for Biggio/Bagwell.

So let's get down to it. Jaffe predicts:

Biggio - 76%
Bagwell - 52%

This is good news for Biggio who, under the prediction, would be elected by a very narrow margin. Not such good news for Jeff Bagwell, who would fall short for the third straight year.

How accurate might this be? Let Jaffe himself explain:
The track record is pretty good so far. Through five election cycles, I’ve predicted vote totals 77 times and been within five points of the result 64 times (and within one percentage point of the actual results 25 times) with an average margin of error of 3.3 percent.

On Biggio:
My hunch is that Biggio just skates in. Many voters see 3,000 hits and just check his name. For half of the voters denying Clemens and Bonds, Biggio is the easiest pick because he comes with that bright shiny number: 3,000.

As it refers to Bagwell, his prediction of 52% is a four-point retreat from Bagwell's showing in 2012. Jaffe pegged Bagwell at 54% in 2012, two points shy of #5s actual results.

I'll allow the other guys to weigh in on their own, but I still Biggio coming in between 70-74% and Bagwell between 60-65%.


(Not Hank) Aaron said...

I agree. It would be hard to see Bagwell slipping all the way into the low 50's from where he is polling right now. Also hard to see Biggio rising over the 75% threshold from where he is at, although that's more likely, as the unreported masses might be swayed by 3,000 hits.

Reuben said...

I saw where someone calculated that the remaining voters (about 80%) not yet factored into the BBTF Gizmo would need to put Biggio on about 79% of their ballots in order for him to make it. So its possible, but at this point I really doubt he gets to 75%. That's a shame.

(Not Hank) Aaron said...

The figure I've seen is closer to 77%.

Jay said...

The 18 ESPN voters posted there ballots. 14 voted for Biggio, he was the only player of those 18 votes to get the 75% requirement at 77%.

@OCP22 said...

If Biggio doesn't get in, I will be the first to ask the question, "What does it take in today's SABR(non-traditional)/moral-focused environment to get into the Hall of Fame?" Not dynamic enough... what does that even mean? It could be 5-10 years before we see another player with 3,000 hits... and yet, we're discounting the value of that tremendous accomplishment by saying that Craig Biggio wasn't dynamic enough. This whole thing has become a mess and if I had a vote, I would be extremely conflicted on a lot of names... but not Biggio. There's no question in my mind that he's a Hall of Famer - first ballot. Every 3,000 hit member since 1962 with the exception of Pete Rose has earned HOF nomination on his first ballot... any other exception is presumed to have occurred because of the back log from the inception of the Hall of Fame. Again, you can probably quantify why Biggio doesn't belong using advanced statistics or whatever but if he doesn't get in, it is a disgrace, in my opinion. PS... I'm not an Astros fan.

Anonymous said...

Rose wasn't first ballot?