There's that Norris-to-Cubs thing again...

We, collectively, didn't have a chance to post this from last night, but the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers tweeted:

Cubs don't match up well with Astros but expect them to try to land Bud Norris if the 'Stros make a serious effort to move him.

You can refer to the post directly underneath this one for a long discourse on the Astros and 2013 payroll, and Danny Knobler shooting this down. That said, Rogers was back at it this morning, pushing the Norris-to-Cubs possibility:

Could Alfonso Soriano and much of the $36 million he's owed be part of a Bud Norris trade? Makes sense but would Sori waive 10/5 rights?

Probably not. In the last 12 months Soriano has rejected trades to the Giants, Orioles, Pirates, and apparently prefers the East Coast. There's no reason to think he'd waive his 10/5 rights to come to Houston.

"The Astros don't have enough money..."

Here's your daily WTF from the rumor mill regarding the Astros.

Via SB Nation Chicago, we get this Danny Knobler tweet from yesterday afternoon, when I was boycotting Twitter because nobody could shut up about OMG121212.

Cubs also shopped Soriano to Astros as a possible DH, but Astros don't have enough money (even with Cubs contributing a lot). 

Let's think about this for a second. The SB Nation Chicago post mentions reports that the Cubs were willing to eat approximately $26m of the $36m currently owed Soriano (which Jon Heyman confirmed). If that report is accurate, it means that over the next two years, the Astros would be responsible for $5m per season to get Alfonso Soriano.

Barring some other deal, Jed Lowrie will be the highest-paid Astro in 2013...making around $2m, depending on arbitration. Wesley Wright and Bud Norris are also arbitration-eligible, but aren't exactly going to command Lincecum-style arbitration numbers. Baseball-Reference throws an educated guess at the combined salaries of Lowrie, Norris, and Wright at a combined $5.7m. Baseball-Reference also lists 25 players who will be making league-minimum.

Let's say - for math's sake - that Baseball-Reference is under by a few hundred thousand dollars, and those three will make right at $6m. Let's also just say the Astros aren't going to make any moves that would add players at more than $1m/year (since that's been their trend lately). The payroll would break down as such:

Three Arb-Eligibles: $6m
Philip Humber: $800K
21 players at League Minimum ($480K each): $10,080,000
Total payroll: $16,880,000

Even if the Astros get a hair in their pee-hole and sign Lance Berkman to a contract in the $5m range, that puts TOTAL PAYROLL at around $22m. Also, keep in mind that, if they don't sign Soriano or Berkman, the highest-paid player for the Astros in 2013 would be...the Pirates, who are receiving $5m of Wandy's 2013 salary.

Now, I dislike Alfonso Soriano as much as the next guy, but over the past three seasons, he posted an .801 OPS (113 OPS+), averaging 557 PAs in each season. The 2012 Astros didn't have anybody crack .800 in OPS. The closest to it was Matt Dominguez, who had a .787 OPS (111 OPS+), but did in 113 PAs.

I'm not saying that Soriano is the answer. If I'm hoping for things, first and foremost I'm hoping the report just isn't true. Should the report be true, I'm hoping that the Astros said they didn't have enough money to add Soriano because he's just not the type of player they're looking for, and felt like lying about it.

There are a few ways that I can see the Astros not having enough money for a $30m payroll:

1. The Astros are planning on tens of people in the stands every night in 2013.
2. They're not optimistic about CSN Houston reaching a deal with cable providers that people, you know, watch. On November 30, David Barron said 40% of the viewing area could get CSN Houston.If the new network doesn't make a deal with DirecTV, Dish Network, or AT&T Uverse, might that mean that the Astros would only get 40% of the $80m the Astros were to receive from CSN Houston (which would be $32m)?
3. I realize that Opening Day payroll is not the last line of expenses for a franchise's operations. The last-linked article in Item 2, the Astros are apparently going to invest $20m in the franchise next season. But we aren't taking into account any revenue-sharing.

There are a ton - LITERALLY 2000 POUNDS WORTH - of factors that we aren't considering. But given that payroll has fallen from $102m on Opening Day 2009, the Astros are either in financial trouble, or are unbending in their commitment to keep punting for field position until their prospects are ready.

A half-hearted defense of Carlos Lee's...defense

The earlier link to Michael Bourn's Hardball Times page showing what a lights-out defender he was got me to looking around, specifically at Carlos Lee's defense, to see if the Mets official was correct in how atrocious Lee is in left field.

Some stats for you:
Six NL LFs played 1000 innings in their position: Ryan Braun, Chris Coghlan, Raul Ibanez, Garret Anderson, Alfonso Soriano, and Carlos Lee. Let's compare, shall we? (Note: this is organized from ascending innings played).

First, some definitions:
PO = Putouts
Ass = (heh) Assists
TE = Throwing Errors
FE = Fielding Errors
Fld% = Fielding Percentage
DPS = Double Plays Started
BIZ = Balls in Zone
RZR = Revised Zone Rating, the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out
OOZ = Number of plays made outside of a fielder's zone

Player	Inn	PO	Ass	TE	FE	Fld%	DPS	BIZ	RZR	OOZ
Braun	1364	304	8	2	0	.994	2	270	.919	57
Lee	1272	211	9	0	2	.991	0	197	.812	51
Ibanez	1123	213	9	1	1	.991	0	198	.864	41
Coghlan	1039	209	3	0	5	.977	1	202	.876	33
Anderson	1026	193	4	2	3	.980	0	180	.850	41
Soriano	1004	201	7	2	9	.950	2	189	.820	47

Now, you can make a strong case that, if you're going to have a defensive liability in left field, it might as well be at Minute Maid Park, where you can throw the ball from home plate to the Crawford Boxes. So there are some major park factors at work here. But Lee wasn't last in any of these categories, except for one that really does matter, RZR. But even in that case, he was only slightly worse than Alfonso Soriano (speaking of oppressive, soul-crushing contracts...) Lee's nine outfield assists tied him with Ibanez for the NL lead among left fielders (again, possibly because of how short LF is at MMP).

Lee also made 51 outs outside of his zone, which is second only to Braun in the NL, though it ties him with Nyjer Morgan, who played in less than half the number of innings Lee played. So is Lee's defense bad? Well, he's slow, and he's a chub. But so am I. But it will take me approximately 2,439,024 years to make $100 million*. So yes, his fielding is bad. But he's only barely worse than another LF in the NL Central with a huge, unmoveable contract.

* - This is something I really regret figuring out. Now I'm depressed.

Wanna take a shot? Take it, then.

Recap for G101 - Astros @ Cubs

Like I said, all that about needing Hampton to go deep? Well, it was the Cubs who went deep on the Astros, and Hampton was in the showers early. But all that was overshadowed for us as the ball was handed off, literally and perhaps figuratively, to Bud Norris, making his major league debut. But first let's look at Hampton's piss-poor outing that led to the Cubs' 12-0 victory.

Hampton: 4IP, 8H/9ER, 1K:4BB, 2HR, 15/24 first-pitch strikes, 12/46 non-contact strikes (8 called:4 swinging).

Hampton last gave up 9ER on July 1, 2003 - also on 4IP - in a 20-1 loss to the Marlins. The first inning was brutal. Here's how it went:
Reed Johnson: single to right
Ryan Theriot: double to left
Derrek Lee: sac fly to right (1-0)
Aramis Ramirez: single to left (2-0)
Milton Bradley: walk
Alfonso Soriano: homer to left (5-0)
Jeff Baker: walk, advanced to 2nd on a wild pitch
Koyie Hill: single to center (6-0)
Randy Wells: sac bunt to pitcher
Johnson: flyout to center

Recap: 1IP, 10 batters faced, 6H/6ER, 0K:2BB, 1HR, 1WP

Here's the thing for the other pitchers, oh yes, Bud Norris.

Norris: 3IP, 3H/1ER, 4K:1BB, 8/13 FPS, 14/33 NCS (8c:6s)
Norris threw 13 straight fastballs to open the game. McTaggart said his fastball touched 96, but stayed in the 94-95 range with a slider moving from 84-86mph.

Brocail, making his first appearance since ripping his hamstring from the bone in Atlanta back on May 4: 1IP, 3H/2ER, 0K:1BB.
Brocail gave up Andres Blanco's first career home run, and followed that up by allowing Micah Hoffpauir's first career triple. So we were in a giving mood.

The offense wasn't as bad as the pitching, but it wasn't much better. Randy Wells dominated the Astros, throwing 68 of his 110 pitches for strikes, and getting 25 non-contact strikes. Cubs' pitchers induced four Astros GIDPs. Kaz Matsui logged three of the Astros' six hits, and the Astros only had 2ABs with RISP. Clearly nothing happened with either at-bat.

Man of the Match: Bud Norris! Here's to a long career in the rotation...

Goat of the Game: Really? Mike Hampton and his game score of seven. Depressingly, that's not even the worst of the season - Felipe Paulino had a game score of five on July 3 against the Giants.

Recap for G99 - Astros @ Cubs

Are. You. Kidding. Me. At the time, both the Astros and the Cubs were 8x41 on the night. But when Alfonso Soriano got done trotting around the bases in the bottom of the 13th with three Cubs ahead of him to seal a 5-1 win, the Cubs were 9x42.

All of the Astros' runs came on one swing of Carlos Lee's bat, who's been doing that a lot lately, and he and Tejada were the only ones with more than one hit. Wandy pitched well, and so did Zambrano. Let's just do the thing:

Wandy: 7IP, 6H/1ER, 7K:2BB, 19/27 first-pitch strikes, 30/67 non-contact strikes (18 called:12 swinging)
LaHawk: 0.2IP, 1BB, 1/3 FPS, 4/10 NCS (3c:1s)
Valverde: 1.1IP, 1K:3BB, 2/6 FPS, 5/11 NCS (2c:3s)
Arias: 1IP, 1H, 1K:1BB, 3/8 FPS, 6/17 NCS (5c:1s)
Sampson: 1IP, 2H/4ER, 0K:2BB, 2/7 FPS, 4/11 NCS (4c)

Maybe if LaHawk hadn't argued balls/strikes, he could have stuck around a little bit and spelled out the relief a little bit. But he didn't, and while the impact is hypothetical, it did mean a 4-out outing for Valverde. Then Arias, then Sampson completely nutted the 13th inning, walking the leadoff batter, giving up a single, an intentional walk, and then Soriano's long fly ball that made Santo absolutely explode. Yep, 4 batters faced in the 13th, 0 outs.

Not that the Astros didn't have a chance. If Carlos Lee could have gotten his third hit in the 9th OR the 12th, we might not be having this conversation. With Tejada on 2nd with 1 out in the 9th, Lee grounded out to third (and Blum struck out looking). With Bourn on 2nd and Tejada on 1st with one out in the 12th, Lee GIDPed to short, ending the inning. But that wasn't the only chance. The Astros were 0x7 with RISP, leaving nine on base. Coste, Matsui, and the aforementioned Lee GIDPed on the night.
Oh, and Bourn got thrown out at 2nd for another basepath out.

Man of the Match: Wandy. Gave the Astros a chance to win, and it didn't happen.

Goat of the Game: The 0x7 with RISP gets spread around a little bit, but this one goes to Sampson, even though I feel bad about giving it to him a day after he comes off the DL. So much for putting him in those "low-pressure situations." Still...

Recap for G56 - Cubs @ Astros

Oh yeah, and the Astros played last night. And got the piss kicked out of them, 7-1, vs the Cubs.

Moehler was pretty bad, lasting just three innings. Backe did a little better, lasting three innings, and then the third third of the game (get it?), Arias and Byrdak were the only ones able to stop the Cubs offense.

Moehler: 3IP, 8H/5ER, 3K:2BB
Backe: 3IP, 6H/2ER, 4K:3BB
Arias: 2IP, 1H, 1K:1BB
Byrdak: 1IP, 1H, 1K:2BB

The three lead-off batters Moehler faced were as such:
Soriano: Doubled to left
Lilly: Tripled to right center (that's right. The pitcher.)
Fontenot: Homered to left

Three lead-off batters, three extra-base hits. Backe entered in the 4th inning, got Soriano and Theriot to strike out, then with Lee on 2nd and Fukudome on 3rd, got Bradley to foul out to first. Problem with Backe is that he had runners in scoring position in each inning, loading the bases in the 5th, and allowing a two-out, two-run double in the 6th.

Pitcher	Pit/Str	Strike%	BF/Outs	Efficiency%	GB/FB/K
Moehler	70/41	58.6%	18/9	50%	4/1/3
Backe	68/41	60.3%	18/9	50%	1/4/4
Arias	33/19	57.6%	8/6	75%	3/2/1
Byrdak	24/10	41.7%	6/3	50%	1/1/1
Total	195/111	56.9%	52/27	51.9%	9/8/9

Offense was pretty bad, too. The Astros didn't get on the board until Lance's 9th inning (and career #299) home run. Berkman and Tejada accounted for four of the Astros' five hits, with Pence getting the other hit. Tejada is now hitting .380. Matt Kata did enjoy an 11-pitch pinch-hit AB, one more pitch than Maysonet saw in all three of his ABs.

Man of the Match:
Lance Berkman. Career homer #299.

Goat of the Game:
Brian Moehler. The Astros had a chance to build on a nice little run in their last ten games, and got flat-out embarrassed. By the time Moehler left the game, it was 5-0. Moehler's ERA over his last two starts? 9.00.

Reactions to G36 - Astros at Cubs

LaTroy Hawkins:
“There we go again. I want to kick myself for walking the leadoff hitter. That’s the game right there - leadoff walks. If I don’t leadoff walk that guy, then it’s just a regular old single.”

Cooper, on whether or not he considered walking Soriano (who instead had the walk-off RBI):
"No, not at all. “You make pitches, you get him out. Simple as that. We didn't make our pitches. If we make pitches, we get him out. It's not like he crushed the ball. The ball went off the end of the bat. You make pitches, you get him out."

Soriano:
"I wanted to try to hit the ball to the gap in right field. That pitch was away, and I put the ball in play."

Piniella, on Soriano:
"When he goes to right field, good things will happen. I've told him that many times."

Piniella, on Gregg:
"You certainly don't expect your closer to get hit that hard. I talked to our catcher, Geovany, and he said [Gregg] was up and down the middle with about everything. He needed the work, we needed to pitch him, and he'll be better tomorrow."

Cooper:
“We were pretty much dead in the water. Then Lance gets a swat for us and gets us going. We had our chances there. We had three shots to knock a run home and we didn't."

Berkman:
“I was very pleased with our effort in the ninth inning. You could have easily just packed it in when you’re down four runs and a team has their closer on the mound. I’d be willing to bet that doesn’t happen that often that you come back to tie that game. It’s just disappointing to lose a game that didn’t look like we were going to win, didn’t look like we were going to have a chance to win, then it looked like we should have won it. And now it’s disappointing again.”