Showing posts with label Aroldis Chapman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aroldis Chapman. Show all posts

Saturday, October 21, 2023

Saturday Morning Hot Links

Yep, just checked again, last night actually happened. We're one ridiculous Game 2 First Inning away from last night being the Series. Let's check in on the morning after, and the day before. Everything is Cope-acetic up in Aledo.

*Verlander:

I don't think anybody is mad about him pimping a homer, it was the biggest homer in his career, quite honestly.

Nathaniel Lowe:

Wearing this jersey, having Adolis be my teammate, it feels pretty intentional. There's a history, obviously, between these two teams. I'm sure Alvarez didn't like the ball high and tight to him either. But in today's game, we throw fastballs up. If you want to get emotional about something like that and take it out on a guy that hit a three-run homer, that's too bad. I don't really stand for it. 

That's some mental gymnastics, saying it's okay for Alvarez to get brushed up and in by Aroldis Chapman (who does have a history of hitting people) but not Garcia because Garcia is a hot-head. It's ackshually Alvarez's fault for not getting mad. Hmph. [stomps foot].

When half your bench is running out in a hurry and guys on the injured list want to run their mouth and starters who aren't involved want to get involved, it seems like there are more emotions tied in than gameplay.

*An anonymous Ramger:

One of the best relievers in baseball just suddenly lost command? Maldonado's smart. They got exactly what they wanted, Adolis riled up. Crazy coincidence, isn't it?

Willing to put a small amount of money on the Anonymous Ramger being GM Chris Young. But if Maldonado told Abreu to hit Adolis Garcia to put two men on with nobody out in the bottom of the 8th, down 4-2, just because he knew Adolis Garcia would get pissed off and delay the game for 11 minutes, thus icing Jose LeClerc, who barely ever gives up home runs, so that he would give up a single to Yainer Diaz, who hadn't gotten a hit since September 24, and then walk Jon Singleton, who hadn't received an AB since October 1, thus allowing Jose Altuve to hit a go-ahead three-run home run and take the series back to Houston up 3-2...then Maldonado's new name is Baba Yagaldonado, because that's 18th Dimension Wizard Chess. 

What this tells me is that there are various and sundry Rangers who have night terrors and Martin Maldonado is always holding the knife. 

*Adolis Garcia:

He could have hurt me.

Dubon:

That helped us out a little bit, I think, focus a little bit more. It's crazy. The emotions were high. Everyone knew what was going on. It's baseball. It's fun baseball. It set a different fire, I think, inside everybody.

Marcus Semien:

Everybody on their side is going to say it wasn't [on purpose]. Everybody on this side is going to say it was. The only one who really knows was the pitcher. 

*If there is a suspension for Abreu, it likely won't take effect until the 2024 regular season.

*The ever-even-keeled @RangersInsiders:

Why do good things happen to bad people?

*A Musical Selection:



Saturday, July 1, 2023

Saturday Morning Hot Links

The Astros beat NW Duncanville 5-3 last night. Houston was down 3-1 and scored the last four runs of the game to secure the win. At 45-37, Houston is four games back for the first time since June 16. The Astros have won three straight games, four of their last five, and six of their last nine games.

*Houston went 13-14 in June, playing 27 games in 30 days. It was their first losing record in a calendar month since September 2020. Or, since that season doesn't exist, since August 2017, when they went 11-17. 

*The Astros are 14-6 against the AL West. The Rangers are 15-9 against the AL West.

*Jose Altuve hit the first pitch of the game over the wall. It was the 197th homer of his career, and his 34th career lead-off home run, and moved him past Lance Berkman into sole possession of 3rd in Astros Runs Scored.

Dubon:

If he goes, we go. That's something that's been going on for a while. To hit it on the first pitch of the game, that's his moment.

Altuve, leading off the game, career: .317/.375/.555. 

Altuve in the leadoff spot, career: .304/.366/.485.

*Dusty Baker:

You always want to win that first game because that puts you on a confidence high for the second game...Four-game series are tough. They're very tough. It was very important for us to win that game.

Chas McCormick, who somehow found himself in the lineup and went 2x4 (likely enraging Dusty):

It felt like a playoff game tonight, and Altuve hitting the first pitch dead-center was pretty awesome. For him to be back in the lineup and get us going, that's pretty special for him to do. He's a great player and that's what great players do.

*Mauricio Dubon was 1x4 with a double and 2RBI. It was his 3rd 2RBI game of the season. 

Dubon:

We're a good team. We know what we can do. It's a long year. Just continue doing what we're doing. 

*Last night was Ronel Blanco's fifth start of the season, and he has allowed nine home runs - four straight games with two homers allowed. Blanco has allowed 15 earned runs in those five starts, 11 of them have come via home run. 

*Houston's bullpen: 4IP, 1H/0ER, 5K:0BB.

*Jeremy Pena was out with a stiff neck from sleeping wrong.

*Jose Urquidy threw a 34-pitch bullpen session yesterday, and will face live batters next week.

*In The Ringer's Midseason Power Rankings, the Astros rank 12th...one spot behind Anaheim.

*Prior to Friday's game the Rangers traded for Aroldis Chapman. 

Chapman, regular season career vs Houston: 20.1IP, 21H/12ER, 36K:14BB. His 5.31 ERA / 1.72 WHIP vs the Astros in the regular season is the highest of any single opponent in his career. 

Also:


*The Rangers loss means that SeattLOLe's 15-4 loss (a game they were leading 4-0) to the Rays keeps them 10 games back. Seattle got booed off the field.

*The Ringer: "Hijack" is Idris Elba at his TV thriller best. Can confirm. I love this show.

*BBC: A culinary archaeologist sets the record straight with the recipe for Pompeii's pizza.

*NY Times: France is on fire.

*The Atlantic: Dave Grohl's monument to mortality.

*A Musical Selection:



Sunday, October 20, 2019

Sunday Morning Hot Links

We're just a group of guys, ready to make a dynasty in Houston.

The Astros won their third pennant in franchise history, 14 years to the day since their first pennant in franchise history. Folks, you and I have come a long way together. Let's hug.

It's a great series. We knew they had a great team. Like they call themselves, they're savages. But in this jungle called the American League, we're the apex predator.

Correa totally workshopped that quote with his buddies Daniela.

*Jose Altuve, a savage in the box, undid a whole lot of Lidge-induced PTSD in the bottom of the 9th Inning off of Aroldis Chapman, in an extremely offensively frustrating series. It was Altuve's 5th home run of the postseason, his second of the ALCS. It's the 5th time a Pennant has been clinched on a walk-off homer.

It was Altuve's 2nd Walk-Off Home Run of his career, the first since July 23, 2015, when he did it against Boston. Verlander, on Altuve:
People ask me about him, and I say he's a giant in every sense of the word except for his height. In everything else, he's 7-foot tall. Teammate. Baseball player. Everything.

Chandler Rome: One swing, "complete mayhem," and the American League Pennant. Gerrit Cole, on Altuve:
Coming from having to beg for a professional contract, coming from losing 100 games three times in a row to winning 100 games three times in a row, there's nobody that embodies the underdogs better than Jose. And there's really nobody that's ever played the game that's quite as talented as he is.

Houston is 10-1 in the postseason when Altuve homers.

Jenny Dial Creech: Jose Altuve cements his Houston legacy.

*Chapman, on the Walk-Off:
When [Altuve] hit that, I couldn't believe it. I didn't think he could get a hit like that at that time and walk us off in such a manner. But that's baseball. He's a great hitter, and I didn't do my job. That's why we lost.

We're not going to the World Series because of me, we're going to the World Series because of everybody in the clubhouse.

Hinch, on Altuve:
It's the same old quote of: Everything that's right about the Astros is Jose Altuve. He's been here the longest and seen this organization grow from the ground up. I'm so proud of him. I'm so fortunate to be his manager.

All that is great about baseball is packed into that 5-foot-6, 165-pound body, like one of those super-concentrated detergents. A little goes a long way. Altuve plays baseball like the wag of a puppy's tail. He plays joyfully. And he plays well.

2016 World Series Game 7
2019 ALCS Game 6

*Houston is going to the World Series thanks to two massive diving catches by the corner outfielders: Reddick and Brantley. Brantley, who doubled up Judge:
I wanted to make sure I completed the play. I knew I had a chance to double him up, I had to make a good throw. Yuli did a good job picking it for me. I didn't throw it in the air, I wanted to keep it down. We got out of that inning.

The Aaron Hicks liner Brantley came up with had an expected batting average of .370. Reddick's catch negated a Gardner hit that had an expected batting average of .570.

Reddick:
I ate a little bit of dirt and grass on it. But that's fine. Whatever it takes to make the play and make the out, that's all that matters.

*Yuli Gurriel's first inning 3-run home run were the first runs for the Astros with two outs in the series. It's the third straight year that Gurriel has hit a 3-run homer in the postseason (2018 ALCS G1, 2017 World Series G5). Hinch, on Gurriel:
It's nice when you take the lead, especially in an elimination game, on the other side, it puts an immense amount of pressure on those guys. It wouldn't surprise me that Yuli was in the middle of it, because he's been mere feet away from being in the middle of virtually every good thing that's happened to us offensively in this series.

I had all the bad luck. And I hope I get the good luck in the World Series.

*Houston is 89-2 this season (postseason included) when leading by three or more runs, and 51-0 at Minute Maid Park when up by three.

*Astros, 2019 postseason:

Altuve: .349/.417/.767, 4K:5BB, 5HR
Brantley: .262/.340/.333, 9K:5BB, 1HR
Bregman: .257/.435/.429, 8K:10BB, 1HR
Gurriel: .209/.239/.302, 0K:2BB (yes, Gurriel has not struck out this postseason), 1HR
Correa: .171/.227/.366, 18K:3BB, 2HR
Yordan: .171/.227/.244, 19K:3BB, 0HR
Springer: .152/.235/.283, 15K:5BB, 2HR
Reddick: .136/.174/.273, 7K:1BB, 1HR
Chirinos: .091/.231/.227, 10K:3BB, 0HR

The Astros are going to the World Series with six hitters in the lineup hitting .209 or worse, and went 5x46 w/RISP in the ALCS, and Gerrit Cole only pitched once. 

*Jose Urquidy: 2.2IP, 3H/1ER, 5K:1BB. Hinch, on Urquidy:
He was incredible tonight. What's hard for a young player is not really knowing what was going to happen or how he was going to be used. It probably would have been easier on him emotionally just to start the game and have the normal routine, and we weren't going to do that...We don't win this game if Urquidy doesn't come in and get the outs that he did at the time in which he did to turn it over to the back end of the bullpen.

Matt Young: How Urquidy carried the Astros in Game 6.

*Will Harris, on the Astros' bullpen:
We have a lot of guys with a lot of pride that are really good at their jobs. And I was excited for the opportunity for us to prove that today.

I knew that was gone. That was a terrible feeling. I felt terrible. When Altuve hit the homer, obviously I came back to life and pretty excited right now.

*Brad Peacock was the first pitcher since 1924 to finish a postseason game and then start the next day. He slept in the Astros' designated nap room at Minute Maid Park Friday night.

*Gerrit Cole asked Hinch twice if he could pitch in Game 6.

*Ryan Pressly, who came out of the game after recording a one-pitch out, says he'll be ready for the World Series.
Just some scar tissue that broke off. It was bound to happen at some point. I just didn't think it was going to happen in the middle of that game. I'll be good and ready to go next week.

*6-9 in the Yankees' lineup (Gregorius, Sanchez, Urshela, Gardner): 7x14, 3 runs, 2RBI.

*Yahoo's Tim Brown: The 2019 ALCS highlighted Baseball's greatness, and its flaws.

*Postseason wins, 2013-present:
Los Angeles: 33
Houston: 25
Kansas City: 22
Boston: 19
Chicago: 19
St. Louis: 17
New York Yankees: 14
San Francisco: 14
Washington: 13
Cleveland: 12
Toronto: 10
New York Mets: 8
Milwaukee: 6
Tampa: 5
Detroit: 5
Atlanta: 4
Pittsburgh: 3
Baltimore: 3
Arlington: 2
Oakland: 2
Colorado: 1
Arizona: 1

*Updated AL West Playoff Wins, 2013-present:
Houston: 25
Oakland: 2
Arlington: 2
Anaheim: 0
Seattle: 0

*Wade Miley had a quote on his plans for free agency:
If I'm not back in Houston, I won't be back in the AL. Because I don't ever want to have to face this lineup. 

It's a failure. In Spring Training, we talked about winning the division and putting ourselves in a good spot in the postseason to win a World Series. We came up short. No matter how many games we won in the regular season or what else we did, this season is a failure.

This is the first calendar decade (XXX0-XXX9) in which the Yankees won't play in the World Series since the 1910s. Hate to see it.

*The Astros will now be able to line up Cole-Verlander-Greinke in Games 1-3 of the World Series, Cole could throw Game 5 on normal rest.

An interesting note about Greinke in Game 3 is that it allows him to hit in Washington. In nine starts against the Nationals in his career, Greinke has held them to a .197/.227/.271 line. He's 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA / 0.83 WHIP against the Nationals in his career. At Whatever Their Ballpark Is Called, he's 2-1 in four starts with a 1.11 ERA / 0.90 WHIP. Luhnow:
We're going to have a tough road ahead of us. Washington's a great team, but to be able to open up here and be here for the next several days and not have to travel, it's a huge advantage for our team, huge advantage for our team, huge advantage to have Gerrit Cole probably lined up to go Game 1 and Verlander to go Game 2.

*Hunter Atkins: Could the Astros have a Bullpen Game in Game 4?

*FanGraphs has the Astros winning the World Series at 72-28. FiveThirtyEight has it 60-40 Astros.

*David Roth: What's wrong with the baseballs is what's wrong with Baseball.

*Leeds United 1 Birmingham City 0.

*Texas Monthly: The Great Texas Whiskey Boom.

*A Musical Selection:

Sunday, August 5, 2018

To non-Astros fans: Please boo us. Then do better.

This one is for the non-Astros fans. I realize that this is an Astros fan blog, but I'm going to be pushing this link around, so I'm hoping this will spread.

If you're the type of fan who reads baseball fan blogs, then you're probably also the type of fan who has some idea of the big headlines around the rest of MLB. Which means you've probably heard that the Astros last week traded for Roberto Osuna. Which means you probably also know why Toronto was looking to trade a young, cheap, controllable All-Star closer at all. If you don't know, type "roberto osuna" into Google News and you'll figure it out quickly enough.

I grew up in the Astrodome, but myself and many other Astros die-hards have been alternately angered and saddened by our favorite baseball team's decision that acquiring a young, cheap, controllable All-Star closer at a domestic violence discount was more important than upholding the organization's alleged "zero tolerance policy" for such incidents. GM Jeff Luhnow stumbled in reconciling that policy with this trade, notably including words like "remorseful" (to Osuna's lawyer's chagrin) and notably avoiding words like "innocent." Osuna officially joined the Astros roster today, as his 75-game suspension from MLB expired, and I'm ashamed of my team. I'm also ashamed of many fellow Astros fans who have been eager to ignore or brush aside a still-pending criminal case because our new closer is not in jail and he can throw a baseball good.

Please boo us.

I don't mean you should boo Astros fans (although if you spot someone wearing an Astros Osuna shirsey, by all means, ask questions). I'm certainly not advocating for violence or bad behavior of any kind. But the Astros deserve all of the bad publicity and dislike that they invited on themselves by making this trade.

I'll confess, Yankees fans, that it was convenient to me when the Yankees traded for, and then later re-signed, Aroldis Chapman. I already hated the Yankees - as most non-Yankees fans do - so it was easy for me to compartmentalize that "of course the hated team would welcome a hated player." I was #MadOnline for about 20 minutes over Chapman's $86 million free agent contract, then I forgot about it. I'm ashamed now that I too dismissed it so easily.

If you're feeling good about your team because you didn't trade for a player with active domestic violence allegations last week, then great! By all means, feel good. If you feel that the Astros deserve boos because they did make that trade, then please, go ahead and boo too. If you do boo the Astros for that, though, then you're saying that you don't like domestic violence. Also good - any human being with a pulse should feel the same.

My challenge is this: If you don't like domestic violence, go ahead and boo your disapproval. Then go and actually DO something about it.

BALTIMORE
House of Ruth Maryland

BOSTON
Jane Doe, Inc.

NEW YORK
New York State Coalition Against Domestic Violence

TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG
CASA (Community Action Stops Abuse)

TORONTO
Nellie's

CHICAGO
CAWC (Connections for Abused Women and their Children)

CLEVELAND
DVCAC (Domestic Violence and Child Advocacy Center)

DETROIT
MCEDSV (Michigan Coalition to End Domestic & Sexual Violence)

KANSAS CITY
Hope House

MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
360 Communities/Lewis House

ANAHEIM/ORANGE COUNTY
Human Options

OAKLAND
A Safe Place

SEATTLE
WSCADV (Washington State Coalition Against Domestic Violence)

DFW/ARLINGTON
SafeHaven of Tarrant County

ATLANTA
Partnership Against Domestic Violence

MIAMI
Safespace Foundation Miami

PHILADELPHIA
Women Against Abuse

WASHINGTON, DC
DCCoalition Against Domestic Violence

CINCINNATI
YWCA Greater Cincinnati

MILWAUKEE
Milwaukee Women's Center/Community Advocates, Inc.

PITTSBURGH
Women's Center & Shelter of Greater Pittsburgh

ST. LOUIS
Lydia's House

LOS ANGELES
Peace Over Violence

SAN FRANCISCO
Riley Center of St. Vincent De Paul

PHOENIX
Chrysalis

DENVER
SafeHouse Denver

SAN DIEGO
YWCA San Diego Becky's House

You don't even have to wait until you get the chance to boo the Astros in person before you can click on one of those links to donate or volunteer your time and actually make a difference in fighting domestic violence in your own community. I gathered those links via the National Domestic Violence Center Hotline, but there are a great many more organizations out there also doing great good. If you have a favorite, give them your support.

Roberto Osuna is an active, paid MLB player again now, and whether or not you agree with that, we should all agree that domestic violence is a serious problem, and that the victims need our help more than any pro athlete needs our praise. Many Astros fans - myself included - already have been and will be donating to the Houston Area Women's Center in response. If you feel strongly enough about domestic violence to boo an accused opposing player, then back that up by proving that you care enough to support real victims too.

Monday, November 6, 2017

The ten most pivotal games of the (regular) season

We've got a few months to fully digest what happened this season and, trust me, we will do exactly that. Player recaps, farm system recaps, long reads, history lessons, all of that will be more fun after what the Astros did on remember, remember the 1st of November. For now, though, here are what I (with some assists from Twitter) find to be the ten most pivotal regular season games of the 2017 season, in chronological order:

1. 5 April. 5-3 win vs Seattle.

Having taken the first two games of the series, and the season, Charlie Morton made his Astros debut on April 5. He faced James Paxton and, while Morton pitched well (6IP, 5H/2ER, 4K:2BB) James Paxton started a season of near-dominance over the Astros. It was tied 2-2 at the end of the 9th, and still tied at the end of the 12th. Hinch called on Jandel Gustave to pitch the top of the 13th, who promptly walked the first three batters he saw. Brad Peacock walked in the go-ahead run before retiring the side. The Astros came to bat and a Gattis walk paired with an Aoki single brought up George Springer, who walked it off with a three-run home run. This was the first of 43 come-from-behind victories and, if you recall, the first time this season that things got Weird.

2. 10 April. 6-0 loss at Seattle.

What's notable about a 6-0 early-season loss to Seattle? It's not that the loss dropped the Astros to 4-4, and visions of 2016 rang through our domes. It wasn't that James Paxton dominated the Astros for the second time in five days. No, this game is notable because it was the first time Morton threw a 99mph sinker. The Astros pounced on Morton early last off-season, drawing ridicule for giving Morton - who had thrown just 17.1IP in 2016 - a 2-year/$14m deal with incentives, allegedly thanks to his spin rate. Armed with the Suitcase of Information chained to his wrist, Morton dove into his mechanics and began a season of unheralded velocity. The fastest pitch he threw in his career (2016's four starts notwithstanding) was at 97.16 mph, on October 2, 2010. He threw at least one pitch with more velocity than that in 19 of his 29 starts, post-season included. So no, that April 10 start wasn't great, though only three of those Seattle runs were charged to Morton. But April 10 is when we should have realized that this was a different Charlie F. Morton.


3. 2 May. 8-7 win vs. Arlington.

Coming in to the first series of the season against the in-state rival Rangers, the Astros were 17-9 and had a 3.5-game lead on Anaheim and a six-game lead on East Fort Worth. The Rangers got off to a 5-0 lead after Mike Fiers, who to this point was still Mike Fiers and not Mike F. Fiers before he would go back to being Mike Fiers, allowed four home runs. The Astros started to chip away. Altuve hit a 2-run home run. Marwin Gonzalez led off the 5th with a solo home run to make it 5-3. In the bottom of the 8th, a Beltran double, Altuve walk, and a Gattis single brought up Marwin, who hooked it down the right field line for a go-ahead grand slam before Springer made it 8-5. Luke Gregerson allowed some shenanigans, but the win would be the first of 12 against the Rangers in 2017, after having beaten Arlington ten times in 2015-16 combined. Marwin would go 6x13 with 4HR, 9RBI in the three-game series.

4. May 14. 10-7 win at New York.

Moments after honoring Derek Jeter, the Astros put up a 1st inning 6-spot on the Yankees, fueled by Alex Bregman's grand slam - his first home run of the season. Up through this May 14 game, Bregs was hitting .258/.342/.352. Starting the following day, Bregman hit .292/.355/.512 through the end of the regular season. It also gave the Astros a 3-1 series win at Yankee Stadium.

5. 29 May. 16-8 win at Minnesota.

What is there to say about this game, other than it was a literal miracle, and should have been at least one of the first examples that this season *just might* be special. It allowed us to Hope. The Astros came in to this game having won six of seven games after getting swept at home by Cleveland on the front-end of a 10-game homestand (they'd go 6-4 on that homestand.) The Astros went to Baltimore and swept them.

To this game, though: Houston had a 2-0 lead going into the 5th. Then a disastrous 5th inning in which Brad Peacock and Jordan Jankowski (whose wife is also named Jordan, didja know) allowed the Twins to take a 7-2 lead on silly things like two singles, a double, a triple, a home run, and a passed ball. It was raining hard in the 6th inning, but the game was not delayed. As the 8th inning started, with an 8-2 lead thanks to a Bob Grossman home run, the Twins had a 99% win expectancy. The Astros got a walk, HBP, and four singles to make it 8-6 Twins. It started raining again - though not as hard as in the 6th, and the umpires called for a delay. Beltran noted:
There were some people angry when they put the tarp on. We felt like they took a little momentum away from us. 

The delay lasted ten minutes before play resumed. George Springer hit a 2-1 pitch for a single to cut the lead to 8-7 before Josh Reddick hit a two-run double for seven runs in the 8th inning. A Jose Altuve single made it 10-8 Astros, and two batters later Carlos Beltran hit his sixth home run of the season to make it 13-8 - an 11-run inning, the highest number of runs the Astros would score in a single inning all season. The Twins, whose life spark was extinguished, got three outs on six pitches in the bottom half. The Astros would score three more runs in the top of the 9th and then Gregerson worked around a single and a walk to strike out the side and give the Astros a 16-8 win, in which they scored 14 of the last 15 runs of the game.

Reddick said what everyone was thinking:
I just don't think we ever think we're down and out of a game. We just got to keep confidence in ourselves...This is one game we're going to have to look back to the rest of the year.

And multiple post-season games said "Amen."

6. 10 June. 3-1 win vs Anaheim.

Mike Fiers got demoted to the bullpen between his May 25 and May 30 starts, though you wouldn't know it by looking through his game log. He had a bad start, a God-awful 10H/4R (3ER), 2K:1BB outing in 4.2IP against a God-awful Tigers team and got sent to the outfield. Then the rotation started getting hurt. On May 28 Charlie Morton was put on the DL with a strained lat. Mike Fiers lived to start another day. The day after the Memorial Day Miracle (see above) Fiers threw a sort-of-efficient 6IP, 5H/2ER, 8K:3BB to beat the Twins, who were probably still punch-drunk from the previous day's escapades. At Kansas City on June 5, Fiers - still in the rotation by necessity - was less-than-sort-of-efficient, allowing 7H/2ER, 4K:1BB in 5IP, a game the Astros won 7-3. On June 8 Dallas Keuchel (illness neck) was placed on the DL. But June 10 is by God the day Mike F. Fiers became president.

The division lead wasn't in doubt. The Astros had gone from 5.5 up following the May 21 loss to Cleveland to 12.5 up, having rattled off 14 of 17 wins. But still, Houston needed five starting pitchers. Mike F. Fiers stepped up when the Astros needed him most and out-Ricky Got Dang Nolasco, throwing 7.1IP (his longest outing of the season), 2H/1R (0ER), 8K:2BB. His 82 Game Score (via FanGraphs) was the highest of his season. It was the start of a six-week streak where Fiers would throw a Quality Start in six out of eight starts, right when the Astros needed it. He won't get any Team MVP votes, but Fiers rose to the occasion. He may get non-tendered here soon, but let's not forget what he did every 5th day when the Astros were dealing with too many injuries.

7. 1 July. 7-6 win vs New York.

Getting a Win as a pitcher requires an awful lot of luck. You could be a starter, throw the game of your life, and then maybe a reliever gives up a couple of Royals Specials (bloops just over the head of your gigantic shortstop, for instance) and you get a no-decision. You could be a reliever who craps the bed, but in the next half-inning, your offense goes nuts and you get rewarded with a baseball card stat. This 7-6 win was notable, not for the fact that it is Dayan Diaz's lone career MLB win, but because of how the Astros beat, yes, the Yankees, yet again.

Francis Martes got the start, his fourth of the season, thanks to the aforementioned injuries to the rotation. It was his last start of the season, though he threw 5IP, 4H/2ER, 7K:1BB. But he left two runners on for Will Harris to start the 6th. Harris walked the first batter he faced, then gave up a single to score the 1st runner he inherited from Martes, and then a grand slam to Didi Gregorius to make it 5-2 Yankees, Harris allowing both of Martes' inherited runners to score.

Correa hit a home run in the 6th to cut it to 5-3. Tony Sipp gave up a leadoff home run to Brett Gardner to make it 6-3 Yankees, where the score remained until the bottom of the 8th inning. George Springer struck out swinging for the first out. The Yankees had a 92% win expectancy. Altuve drew a walk, then stole 2nd, then stole 3rd. Correa grounded out to score Altuve, 6-4 Yankees. Evan Gattis hit a home run to make it 6-5 Yankees. Josh Reddick pinch-ran for Carlos Beltran, got picked off, but an error on - wouldn't you know - old friend Chris Carter allowed him to reach 2nd, after which he stole 3rd. Dellin Betances walked Marwin Gonzalez to bring in Aroldis Chapman to face Yuli Gurriel...who hit a two-run double to take lead 7-6. Ken Giles needed 11 pitches to retire the Yankees and the Astros showed they could get to sad-sack Aroldis Chapman...and not for the last time.

8. 30 August. 8-0 loss vs* Arlington (*in Tampa Bay).

Memories of 2008: hurricane comes, forces you to play a home game in a neutral site, and you get dominated, sadness ensues. The Rangers, who had scored 54 runs in 13 games prior to this series in Tampa Bay, had scored 20 runs in the August 29-30 games against the Astros. Something had to be done. For the team, who were clearly disappointed following the relative non-activity of the July 31 trade deadline, for the city in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. We don't know at exactly which point the Astros re-engaged the Tigers on a potential trade for Justin Verlander. The Detroit Free-Press wrote that it was about 11pm Eastern, which would come hours after the Astros beat the Rangers in the series finale in front of 3,385 "fans." But I seriously doubt that it took a 5-1 win over Arlington in the literal ugliest stadium in the Majors (at least Oakland is outside...and the weather is nice) to convince Luhnow to make that trade. This is the most subjective game on this list, but I'm sticking to it.

9. 2 September. Astros take both ends of a double-header against the Mets.

I mean the opposing pitcher was Matt Harvey. If you were watching a movie - a fictional piece of crap on the level of For Love of the Game - and the home team represented a city that just got flat-out freaking destroyed by a hurricane the National Weather Service had named Harvey faced a pitcher named Matt Harvey, you would turn that movie off. Why? Because it was pre-destined. It's what Hollywood had determined. The Astros beat the piss out of the Mets, because they're terrible, but also because the opposing pitcher, a problematic dude who shared the same name as the hurricane that destroyed the city...I know I'm belaboring the point, but COME ON THAT'S RIDICULOUS. And everyone bought in. Before the Sunday game on 3 September, the Astros introduced Justin Verlander, and he became the Randy Johnson for which we yearned, just 19 years after the fact.

10. 5 September. Astros win 3-1 at Seattle; 6 September. Astros win 5-3 at Seattle.

Two games, one player. Cameron Maybin, former teammates with the golden god Justin Verlander, wanted to live up to the reputation. Freed from the mental mind-prison of Anaheim, who have Mike Trout and 24 blokes, Cameron Maybin didn't want to be another bloke. He came to the playoff-bound Astros, and wanted to do what he does best: contribute in very random spots at a time when it would be Extremely Helpful and then return to Whack-A-Mole status. Maybin was acquired for a suitcase full of non-sequential $20s for Arte Moreno to launder. Maybin hit the two-run home run in the 7th on September 5 to give the Astros a 3-1 win. Maybin hit the home run in the 9th on September 6 to give the Astros a 5-3 win. These two home runs effectively ended the Mariners' chance of making a trip to the postseason. It was an example of how this team worked: everyone works together with the common goal of bludgeoning your opponent to death with a stick.

Monday, October 17, 2016

Monday Morning Hot Links

Today is the 11th anniversary of the Albert Pujols home run. Take a deep dive into self-loathing, if you will.

*The Astros held their final camp at Osceola County Stadium in Kissimmee, with everything still on track to open 2017 with the Nationals in Palm Beach County.

*Jose Altuve led the Texans on to the field last night.

*A.J. Reed and Yulieski Gurriel will retain their rookie eligibility for the 2017 season. Gurriel was one AB shy of losing his rookie status (and didn't play in the final game of the season).

*Stop saying Clayton Kershaw isn't clutch.

*Dave Roberts, Clayton Kershaw, and the 7th inning.

*The story behind the Dodgers canceling the trade for Aroldis Chapman.

*Nick Cafardo says the cost for Boston of acquiring Chris Sale would be Jackie Bradley Jr plus one top prospect (like Yoan Moncada). He also pegs Edwin Encarnacion's contract at 5yrs/$125m.

*Inside the Nationals' clubhouse following their Game 5 loss.

*67-year old Grainger Stadium in Kinston, North Carolina gets baseball back.

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

2016 Astros Trade Deadline: Targets - Round 1

I recently wrote about the Astros team needs for this upcoming trade deadline. The conclusion is that the Astros need to improve the offense and could use another starter to slot into game one or two of a playoff series. The offense could improve with a call up of Yulieski Gurriel and Alex Bregman. The pitching could also improve with a call up of Joe Musgrove or a move to the rotation for Feliz. The concern with these moves is a lack of experience. These moves could be made with little return.

With that in mind lets explore the players with a more solid track record that the team could target in a trade. Lets start by looking at players on the wish list of Astros fans.

Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman

I will be using ERA+ throughout this article.

What Dustin is referring to is the Astros going after Andrew Miller hard in the free agent market prior to the 2015 season. They offered him four years and $40 million. He decided to sign with the New York Yankees for four years and $36 million, cause Yankees. It appears the tables have turned and it's the Astros looking to improve their ballclub for a playoff run. While the Yankees are looking to sell.

This season Andrew Miller has 329 ERA+. For reference, Will Harris has a 261 ERA+. Miller has been really good for the Yankees this year. The reason why he only has seven saves is because the Yankees also have Aroldis Chapman saving games. He and his 194 ERA+ may also be available. Both guys are lefties. Which makes them an even better fit for the bullpen. Miller is a free agent after the 2018 season. Chapman is a free agent after the 2016 season.

Price: I would expect something similar to the Ken Giles trade. The Astros traded Mark Appel, Harold Arauz, Thomas Eshelman, Brett Oberholtzer, and Vincent Velasquez to the Philadelphia Phillies for Giles.

Chris Archer

I've had a man crush on Chris Archer since the playoffs last year. He was an absolute joy to listen to while contribution to a playoff game broadcast last year.

On the field he hasn't been as good this year. He has an 88 ERA+ this year. Which is well below his career 108 ERA+. He's still striking out 10+ batters per nine innings. As some of his numbers normalize that ERA+ should rise. Archer is under contract for about $20 million through 2019. He has two team options for 2020 and 2021 at $9 million and $11 million respectively.

Price: He'll be expensive. Probably more so than a Miller or Chapman. Still I would happily give up Alex Bregman to add Archer to the rotation. And I love me some Alex Bregman. 


Tyler Bauer

This is an interesting one. I'm not sure Bauer is available with the Indians leading their division. I love a good out of left field trade idea. Lets dive in.

Bauer, if he is available, has a 140 ERA+ and doesn't become a free agent until 2021. He's been in and out of the rotation and there are some character issue rumors surrounding him. If he has finally figured it out, Bauer could be the type of guy that fits into the Astros top of the rotation now and in the future.

Price: The lack of a strong track record means the cost will be lower than the other pitchers mentioned above. He will still require a strong offer for the Indians to even think about trading him. Maybe the Astros can offer some of the big league ready talent waiting for an opportunity in AAA.

Carlos Beltran

Pass.



Leave your player suggestions in the comment section.

Thursday, March 3, 2016

Thursday Morning Hot Links

Certain Astros will play baseball today, beginning a journey that ideally ends sometime around the beginning of November.

*The Astros/Phillies Spring Training game will be on MLB Network today at 12:05pm Central. George Springer, Jon Singleton, Tyler White, A.J. Reed, Preston Tucker, and Alex Bregman will all be playing.

*Altuve and Correa will make their Spring debut either Friday or Saturday.

*Luke Gregerson threw off a mound yesterday.

*Evan Gattis - three weeks removed from hernia surgery - is hitting off a tee.

*Jose Altuve and the Astros apparently haven't discussed an extension beyond his current deal that has him signed through 2019, pending team options.

*Altuve is the Astros' "spark plug."

*Joe Musgrove knows we're all talking about his walks.

*Tyler White has been working on hitting the high fastball.

*FanGraphs on the similarities between Domingo Santana and George Springer.

*Aroldis Chapman's 30-game suspension was not random.

*The sheetrock accident that turned Craig Kimbrel into a dominant closer.

*Brett Phillips' laugh - and his five tools - have turned him into baseball's darling prospect. (Side note: trading Brett Phillips has haunted me since July, and I don't think that's going away any time soon)

*MLB has filed a proposal with the Treasury Department to allow Cuban players to sign directly with teams.

*There were only 15 known Ty Cobb T-206s, then a family decided to flip through a paper bag and found seven more.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Yankees get Chapman at huge discount

Nothing much has been happening with the Astros since the end of the Winter Meetings.  There seems to have been greater-than-normal activity on the waiver wire, with multiple teams designating and claiming various pieces on the waiver wire.  The Astros, for their part, picked up Danny Reynolds which will be the subject of a post for another time.  But that does not change the impression that I gained over the last fortnight or so - that there has not been a whole heap of Astros-centric activity to report.

Aroldis Chapman has been the subject of Astros-related rumours for the last year or so.  Well, today, Chapman was officially removed from any Astros wish-lists, because he was traded to the Yankees in exchange for four minor-leaguers.  None of the minor-leaguers were particularly good - for the Astros, this might have been the equivalent of trading J.D. Davis and Akeem Bostick (as the better two of the prospects) with perhaps James Hoyt as one of the worse two prospects.  Some Astros fans may disagree - I doubt that Davis, Bostick and Hoyt would have been traded for the Yankees' end of the Chapman trade (Eric Jagelio, Rookie Davis, Tony Renda and Caleb Cothem) straight up - but this looks like about the level of prospects that are being exchanged.

For the Yankees, this has to be considered an excellent get.  Chapman is under control for another year - two if he is suspended by the Office of the Commissioner for more than 45 days - at whatever the arbitration process will pay him.  The suspension is no small matter - as most people know, Chapman was involved in a domestic violence 'incident' in which his partner was apparently choked, and eight shots were fired from a pistol.  This, combined with his previous history of odd and potentially criminal behaviour toward women, would have given most major-league organisations cause to stop and think about the off-field implications of acquiring him.

But, goodness, what a bullpen.  The Yankees already had a strong bullpen with Dellin Betances (1.50 ERA, 2.48 FIP, 14.04 K/9, 4.29 BB/9) setting up for Andrew Miller (1.90 ERA, 2.16 FIP, 14.59 K/9, 2.42 BB/9).  Now they add Aroldis Chapman, whose dashboard stats described another ridiculously dominant 2015 season (1.63 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 15.74 K/9, 4.48 BB/9).  That gives the Yankees three of the top 10 qualifying relievers in ERA (numbers 2, 4 and 10), three of the top 6 in reliever WAR, and the top three relievers in the major-leagues in strikeout rate.  Yikes.

For the Reds, this is the second trade in a short time that they have taken an absolute bath on.  They traded Todd Frazier five months too late, and it seems like Aroldis Chapman's story is a similar one.  That the Reds would trade a player of Chapman's calibre to the Yankees, and emerge with none of the Yankees' consensus top 4 prospects is unfathomable - or was a month ago.  There is some risk for the Yankees here, but it seems highly unlikely that they will lose Chapman for an undetermined period of time, but if they do, they just get another year of control.

And, as the kicker, they will undoubtedly offer Chapman a qualifying offer on his way out the door at the end of 2016, and that will recoup them a draft pick in the supplementary round.  Or they just extend him for some Yankee-sized contract.

But this is an Astros blog, and all I have done is opined that the Yankees got a whole lot better in their relief corps, and the Reds took another hosing in trading one of their impact pieces.  How does this affect the Astros??  Aside from having to squash the Yankees in the first six innings of any given game, the answer is that it probably does not affect the Astros at all.  There were rumours linking the Astros and the Yankees to an Andrew Miller trade before the Astros acquired Ken Giles, so perhaps that is something if Miller is made available, but I doubt it.

What is more intriguing - at least for me - is that the Astros and the Reds match up in one potential trade pretty well.  Joey Votto plays at a position of a recent offensive black hole-ery for the Astros.  Plus, he is left handed, has a career OBP of .423 and hits intermittently for power (career .530) which fits nicely with the Astros from the perspective of lineup balance.

Where Votto doesn't fit with the Astros is in the dollars owed to him, and the length of time that dollars are owed to him.  He just played out the first year of a 10 (ten!) year extension that pays him through until 2023.  And just in case you may want to keep him around as a 40-year old, he has a 2024 team option tacked on the end of it (with a $7MM buyout).  The 2016 season will cost a team a cool 20-million.  The 2017 season will cost 22-million, and the remaining seven seasons of the extension will be at a bargain price of 25-million per annum after that.  Sheesh.

So Votto-to-the-Astros likely isn't happening.  But the Reds have signalled that they are hitting the start button on a serious rebuild by selling low on two of their more valued assets, so perhaps Votto will also be made available.   My - and many fans' - preferred route for the Astros is to let the kids play first base in 2016 - Jon Singleton will likely open the season, then some combination of Luis Valbuena, Tyler White and Matt Duffy will get a look until the super-two deadline if Singleton does not hold the position.  Then A.J. Reed will assume the duties from mid-June onward, or so I would have thought.

This is consistent with the Front Office's modus operandi: build from within, trade spare parts for elite pieces, and generally stay away from long, free agent contracts (including the mistakes of other organisations).  I say "generally", because the Astros were reportedly in on David Robertson and Andrew Miller last year, and have apparently been in on a number of second-tier, free-agent innings-eaters this offseason.  But, as MLBTR reports, this offseason the free-agent market has been slow to develop, and the possibility of some crazy stuff going down later in the offseason is high.  So who knows.  If I were the Astros, it would be hard for me not to pick up the phone and make polite enquiries about Joey Votto.

Anyhow, the point of all of this is that the Yankees 'pen just got better, the Reds just got worse, and if the Reds want to sell Joey Votto at a discount, the Astros could do a whole lot worse.  Unlikely to happen, but nice to think about.  And thanks to the slow nature of the free-agent marketplace, thinking is all the Astros fans are getting to do at the moment.

Seasons Greetings, everyone.

Friday, December 11, 2015

Friday Morning Hot Links

*A.J. Hinch is up to the challenge of "Actual Expectations" as opposed to "No Expectations."

*FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan: Astros land dominant Ken Giles for potentially dominant Vincent Velasquez. Sullivan:
Giles has some risk, but Velasquez also has some obvious risk, and taking a step back, the Astros probably do need to concentrate more talent instead of having more quality players than they can protect on the 40-man. This is the Astros consolidating talent. And this is the Phillies collecting it.

*Will Harris is very excited about Giles and Sipp:
All of us selfishly wanted (Sipp) to stay, but at the same time he had to do what's best for himself and his family and his future. And for those two things to line up, it's obviously the best of both worlds. I was really, really excited for him and for myself.

*The Astros are one of Jayson Stark's Winter Meetings winners.

*Gosh, where have we seen this before? The Philadelphia Inquirer's Mike Sielski says the Phillies should be ashamed of themselves for all their rebuilding efforts. An actual line from the story with no context:
I hate new things.

UPDATE: It seems as though the previous link is some next-level satire that you have to be (a) from Philly and (b) a Sixers fan to get.

*Somehow Oliver Perez got 2yrs/$7m from Washington.

*The Reds are still trying to trade Aroldis Chapman, hoping that a club won't mind a pesky little thing like a domestic violence charge if it means a clock stoppage on his service time, which won't accrue while/if Chapman is suspended.

*Read what a crap sandwich Yasiel Puig is turning into in Los Angeles.

*The Nationals are fighting the Angels, Cubs, and Cardinals for the right to pay Jason Heyward for the next ten years.

*Brian Bogusevic is headed to the Orix Buffaloes of the NPB.

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*The Masked Marvel has an opinion post, now that we know Thomas Eshelman is the 4th player headed to Philly.

*In the Giles trade piece, Evan Drellich speculates that clubhouse politics could come into the discussion on whether or not Giles takes over as closer for Luke Gregerson. To which your initial response might be "Blogga, please!" But Gregerson does have bonuses worked into his contract based on the number of games he finishes - like, an extra $1m if he finishes 57 games, bonuses.

*Jesse Spector writes about why Giles should be the set-up man for Luke Gregerson.

*FanGraphs: Ken Giles: Underrated Relief Ace

*The Astros have talked to the Indians about SP Carlos Carrasco, and other teams have checked in on the availability of Carlos Gomez and George Springer. Are they on the block?
Luhnow:
It's a tricky question to answer. Because if you have good players, other clubs are going to ask you about them and any time you get an inbound inquiry on any player, you're going to at least look at it and talk about it with your group.

*The Astros have some interest in free agent pitcher Yovani Gallardo. I would be interested in him giving up all the Rangers' secrets. Like, what sex stuff do they do in their clubhouse? How hard does Cole Hamels like to get whipped after losses? You can't put a price on that information.

*The Astros are still looking for some bullpen help, too (and they are still interested in Tony Sipp). Remember they lost Qualls and - currently - Sipp. Which, say what you want about both, but between the two they threw 103.2IP last year, and the Astros will need to make up those innings. The

*Evan Drellich wonders if the Astros would have interest in Washington's Ian Desmond.

*The Astros had concerns about Aroldis Chapman even before the domestic violence report dropped.

*Watch Lance McCullers do a 61.5" box jump.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Tuesday Winter Meetings Update

Let's recap what has happened so far on the Astros wing of the Opryland Hotel...

*Those battered bastions of baseball morality, the Miami Marlins, are - or are not - prepared to deal Jose Fernandez. And the Astros are a #MysteryTeam linked to this possible - or impossible - deal, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark. Nah, says Evan Drellich's source.

*Jeffrey Loria said of Fernandez:
There is nothing I am thinking about doing at the moment with him.

I'll echo Drellich's sentiments here: the Astros are easy to float in a rumor because they have a lot of prospects to offer for a big package, and that can be used to increase other teams' offers.

*Aroldis Chapman is "untradeable" according to Jon Heyman, while teams let MLB investigate last night's bombshell news of the alleged domestic assault.

*The Rockies signed Chad Qualls to a 2yr/$6m deal.

*The Rangers are "surveying" rival teams' interest in Prince Fielder.

Winter Meetings Day 1 Recap

Man, yesterday was weird. Let's look back and see what happened...

*It at first looked like the Dodgers had acquired oft-rumored Astros target Aroldis Chapman. Then the Reds cancelled the press conference, leading many (meaning: me) to believe maybe the Astros were back in the running, seeing as how the reports weren't indicating that the Dodgers had to give up their best prospects. Well, it's something far more serious than that as Yahoo's Tim Brown and Jeff Passan have this report that Aroldis Chapman has allegedly been involved in a serious domestic altercation with his girlfriend in which shots were fired and she was choked.

*The Red Sox backed away from a Chapman trade after learning of the news.

*USA Today's Bob Nightengale still thinks the Astros would pounce on Chapman. Even if he does have an injured hand from the dispute.

*Joel Sherman says the Astros have continued interest in Yankees reliever Andrew Miller.

*The Astros and Scott Kazmir's camp met to discuss a possible reunion yesterday. I hope the conversation started out, "So you kind of sucked there for a while, didjanow?"

*But after all that, Jeff Luhnow still isn't sure they'll actually make a move during the Winter Meetings, which end on Thursday.

*The Kazmir and Gomez deals have made the Astros a little more cautious this winter.

*Pat Neshek, who had a fractured foot as early as Spring Training, underwent surgery and Luis Valbuena had a small bunion removed from his left foot yesterday.

Neshek:
Surgery was considered in spring but the thought was it would heal by not running on it. It got a little worse through the year and I'm glad that this should be the end of my pain.

*Scott Feldman and Brad Peacock will also be ready for Spring Training.

*Alonzo Powell, who spent the last four years with San Diego, is your new assistant hitting coach.

*The Marlins would be open to moving Jose Fernandez, but only if they empty your cupboard of prospects.

*Mike Leake would cost you 5yrs/$75-80m.


Monday, December 7, 2015

Monday Morning Hot Links

The Astros - and pretty much everybody else - are running around the sprawling hellscape that is the Opryland Hotel as the Winter Meetings officially open.

*Evan Drellich writes that the Astros' payroll doesn't measure up to Houston's market size.



*Drellich, who has been busy!, writes about Lance McCullers and Aroldis Chapman.

*Cincinnati execs are confident they'll move Chapman this week.

*In ESPN's Winter Meetings preview, David Schoenfield predicts that the Astros will land both Aroldis Chapman and Chris Davis, which would then allow the Astros to "trade prospect A.J. Reed for a young, controllable starting pitcher." /apoplexy

*When the A's played the Astros in September, A's players recruited Scott Kazmir to come back to Oakland this offseason.

*Tyler Kepner writes about Billy Wagner's HOF credentials.

Saturday, December 5, 2015

Saturday Winter Meetings Update

While we wonder what the heck even is the University of Texas football team, here are some updates from Nashville:

*The Astros want to upgrade their bullpen with a strong 9th-inning closer, says Brian McTaggart, specifically mentioning Aroldis Chapman, Brad Boxberger, and Ken Giles. He also mentions there is mutual interest between the Astros and free agent Tony Sipp.

*Jerry Crasnick tweeted that the Astros have discussed Drew Storen as a possible target, but more as a Plan B if they don't land one of the aforementioned closers.

*Jeff Samardzija got 5yrs/$90m from the Giants. So just give Dallas Keuchel 6yrs/$100m already.

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

OF COURSE the Phillies want McCullers and Velasquez

So Jerry Crasnick - who seems to have his finger on the pulse of the Astros, as much as anyone can, anyway - has this little nugget:


And so of course they want McCullers/Velasquez. The question I have is, "is that 'and' an 'and' or is it an 'or?'"

Another question might be, "Who is Ken Giles that the Phillies would demand such a return?" He's a 6'2" 205lb 25-year old righty reliever - the Phillies' 7th Round pick in 2011. In 2014 he threw 45.2IP, allowing 25H/6ER, 64K:11BB, finishing 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year award race for his 1.18 ERA/1.34 FIP/0.79 WHIP.

Dismissing that it was an entire fluke, Giles followed that up with 70IP in 2016, allowing 59H/14ER, 87K:25BB - a 1.80 ERA/2.13 FIP/1.20 WHIP. So he has faced 464 batters in the majors, and struck out 151 of them. His 11.19 K/9 rate in 2015 was 13th among relievers with at least 50IP thrown and his 2.13 FIP was 6th.

Giles also fits the bill of the "hard-throwing reliever" the Chronicle thinks the Astros so badly want. Giles throws a 96.5mph four-seamer with an 86mph slider.

He's under team control until 2021, so you can see why the Phillies would be throwing around names like McCullers and Velasquez.

Crasnick went on to add:
and

That last tweet goes along with what Jon Heyman tweeted on July 31 regarding Crane and Chapman:
As late as 1:09pm on July 31 the Astros were rumored to be talking to the Reds about Chapman.

Monday, November 30, 2015

Monday Morning Hot Links

So now that Thanksgiving is over and I once again have to get up at an obscene hour just to remember my name, let's put some links on the ol' Hot Stove...

*Former Astro Great J.A. Happ signed a 3yr/$36m deal with Toronto. Jordan Zimmermann (whom I had hoped the Astros would land) signed a 5yr/$110m deal with Detroit. And now Johnny Cueto has rejected a 6yr/$120m deal from the Diamondbacks.

*Jerry Crasnick tweeted that the reliever market is expected to pick up this week, with a logjam of Chapman and Melancon holding things up. And, of course, the Astros are linked to (and have been since July) Chapman.

*On the Astros side of things, Jeff Luhnow said that the Astros can afford to keep everybody if they want to, though the "not constrained by a budget" line is, ahem, a departure from what we're used to.

*Here's a fantastic story from Ryan McKenna about Jim Stevenson - the Astros scout in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri - who drafted Dallas Keuchel and Jake Arrieta.

*Bud Norris signed a one-year deal with the Braves.

*The A's are shopping both Brett Lawrie and Danny Valencia. I vote for acquiring Danny Valencia and just stashing him on the bench so that he can't destroy the Astros again. In 12 games against the Astros (47 PAs) in 2015, Valencia hit .436/.522/.821.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

What would it take to acquire Aroldis Chapman?

I'm not going to beat around the bush here - the Astros need a closer. You know it, I know it, and so do the Astros.

While the Astros made huge strides in 2015 with a bullpen that ranked near the top of the league in overall season performance, it was the September/October lull that ultimately killed their season far too early.

Luke Gregerson, bless him and his horseshoe, battled valiantly all season, compiling good all-around numbers (7-3, 3.10 ERA, 31 saves) and establishing career-lows in bad things like walks (10) and advanced figures like WHIP (0.95).

Underneath those sterling numbers, however, is a very hittable late-inning reliever that can't just get you out on stuff. That's the keystone to any successful reliever, long-term. When a batter takes you through a 3-2 count, fouling off pitch after pitch, making the at-bat seem more like a life experience, you need to be able to reach back and deliver filth you wouldn't feel comfortable letting your mom see in order to push things along.

The Astros bullpen, successful as it was over the long haul, did not have one "stuff" guy to their name. So yeah, while building a decent to great bullpen can be a fairly quick and inexpensive endeavor, that "stuff" guy is someone you should definitely consider splurging on.

While the July and August trade winds came up empty in that department, with fatal consequences, the Hot Stove season seems ripe with opportunity to make up for that mid-season faux pas.

Enter: Aroldis Chapman

The Reds are holding a fairly expensive yard sale this winter, and everything not nailed down by a no-trade clause MUST. GO.

Chapman is the crown jewel of the Cincinnati Outlet Mall and thus comes at a high price. Prior to acquiring closer Craig Kimbrel from the Padres earlier this month, the Red Sox were engaged in Chapman talks.

The Reds were reportedly asking for more than what the Red Sox eventually gave up for Kimbrel in spite of the fact that Kimbrel is under contract for another five seasons while Chapman is a free agent after 2016. Industry insiders widely believe the Red Sox paid too much for Kimbrel.

So the price is high. For now.

Looking at the reported asking price, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark just eight days ago, the Reds want "young talent that is Major-League-ready in trades for either (Todd) Frazier or closer Aroldis Chapman."

Other reports have the Reds asking for 3-4 of those kinds of pieces.

There is no better match for a trade - on paper - than the Astros. But, of course, the real talking point is - what would the Astros be willing to give up for, conceivably, one season of Aroldis Chapman plus a possible compensation pick if/when Chapman bolts after 2016?

The Astros could satisfy a number of Cincy's requirements without tearing down the bulk of their industry-leading farm system. Let's toss a couple packages around to see how they feel.

PACKAGE #1
Astros trade:
- 1B Jon Singleton
- 3B Matt Duffy
- 2B Tony Kemp
- RHP Chris Devenski

Reds trade:
- Aroldis Chapman

Interesting and familiar names here. Singleton would be a sad departure, at least for me, because hopes were so high back in 2012 when he was rising through the system as the organization's top prospect and projected replacement for Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman. Singleton's struggles at the big league level have been a disappointment, but it's still too early to condemn him to a life of Brett Wallace.

Signed to a then-controversial, team-friendly five-year deal worth $10 million in 2014, Singleton has slashed a .171/.290/.331 line with 14 homers and 50 RBI. His strikeout numbers are atrocious and his defense is... meh. It won't harm you, but it won't save anything extra either.

On the plus side, Singleton has yet to receive a full 162 games of big league at-bats and is going to be entering his age 24 season with plenty of upside, especially to teams who may believe the Astros have misused him.

Singleton started the season in Triple-A Fresno and lit the world on fire at one point in May, going full-on Barry Bonds on just about every pitch he saw. But once he received a call-up to Houston in June and began the back-and-forth between playing/not playing/back to Fresno/back to Houston, his season took a left turn to nowhere and that's pretty much where he ended up.

Still something there, but his value diminishes each year he falls out of favor in Houston.

Devenski is another interesting name in that he's fairly high regarded prospect in the Houston system, ranked number 18 overall by MLB.com, but was recently left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft that he's surely to be snatched up in.

After a wildly successful season at Double-A Corpus Christi, Devenski joined Triple-A Fresno in time for the postseason and pitched a beauty in the Triple-A National Championship Game, flirting with a perfect game through six innings, ultimately settling for a one-hit shutout in his first-ever game at the highest level of the minors.

As the Astros prepare for the Winter Meetings, losing another highly-regarded prospect for nothing in the Rule 5 would be painful to take. Of course, if the Astros trade him before the Winter Meetings, that would at least lessen the blow of losing him. It wouldn't be for nothing.

Kemp is a high-end prospect for the Astros who has risen quickly through the system despite his size (sound familiar?). He's completely blocked in Houston, so a trade makes complete sense. With the Reds looking to deal away long-time two-bagger Brandon Phillips, Kemp would be a key piece in replacing him.

Duffy, the 2015 PCL MVP, is yet another sleeper prospect who came out of seemingly nowhere to achieve "second-best Matt Duffy in baseball" status. His cup of coffee in Houston not withstanding, Duffy is 26 years old and is either going to make it or break it. He's too old to be a prospect, but he could be a serviceable piece for a bit while the Reds look into Todd Frazier deals and replacements for him.

Every one of these players is very close to or is Major League ready. While it isn't a package surrounding someone like Lance McCullers, like what the Yankees are rumored to want in exchange for Andrew Miller, it's a more than fair compensation package for a player in his final season.

PACKAGE #2
Astros trade:
- 2B Tony Kemp
- RHP Chris Devenski
- 1B Jon Singleton
- RHP Michael Feliz
- RHP Akeem Bostick

Reds trade:
- LHP Aroldis Chapman
- RHP Nick Howard

Feliz and Bostick round out an impressive package that takes away two of Houston's three most major league-ready arms, as well as a highly projectable Bostick.

If any of these two deals, or close variations of them, occur, it should be considered a win for both sides. The Reds get a great jump start to their rebuilding by acquiring arms, projects and prospects, and the Astros get the flamethrower they so desperately need.

The Reds would like to wrap up the Chapman part of their off-season prior to the Winter Meetings, which start in just under two weeks.

Let's see what happens.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

*It's funny how I'm way more in favor of players winning awards in part because of excellence on a playoff team when it's my favorite team who made the playoffs. That said, Carlos Correa is totally deserving of winning the AL Rookie of the Year award over Francisco Lindor (who, it must be said, makes excellent chocolates).

Here's the voting breakdown:
Correa: 17 1st Place votes, 13 2nd Place votes (124 points)
Lindor: 13 1st Place votes, 14 2nd Place votes (109 points)

Correa said that the metal plate in his leg - from breaking his ankle last season at Lancaster - caused him pain over the course of the season. I don't know if that's something that will get better, because I'm soft and rarely put myself in a position to break a bone, but it's still notable.

*Correa:
If you told me before the season started this was going to happen, I would not believe you. I started the year in Double-A. A few years back, in 2012, they drafted me with the first pick overall, and everybody was saying I was not supposed to be the first pick and was not the best player, but the hard work came through and I've been working hard all these years to be able to get to this level and be able to accomplish some things.

*Correa joins future Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell as the only Astros to win the Rookie of the Year award.

Bagwell's 1991 (156 games): .294/.387/.437, 26 doubles/15 home runs, 139 OPS+
Correa's 2015 (99 games):   .279/.345/.512, 22 doubles/22 home runs, 132 OPS+

*I'm always fascinated by how the voters vote based on geography, so...
*Jayson Stark noted that Correa is the 1st #1 overall pick in the American League to win the Rookie of the Year, while the NL has done it three times.

*Luhnow, on Correa (back in July):
It was so quick, the light bulb went off, realizing this kid was meant to be at the highest level. And if there's a higher level than this, he's probably meant to be there, because he rises to the occasion of the competition around him, and usually beyond it. It's really impressive. 

*Dallas Keuchel won the Warren Spahn Award as baseball's top lefty pitcher. Greg Spahn, Warren's son:
I am ecstatic that Dallas Keuchel, an Oklahoman, wins my father's award.

*Astros' Assistant hitting coach Alan Zinter is now the hitting coach for the Padres.

*The Rangers and Mariners made a trade yesterday, with Leonys Martin and former Astros great Anthony Bass headed to Seattle for fireballing reliever Tom Wilhelmsen joining the Rangers' bullpen.

*So you want Aroldis Chapman? Reds beat writer C. Trent Rosecrans - one of the best - said yesterday that it would take "Two Top 100 prospect guys, and another prospect" to get him.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Perpetual Friday Trade Deadline Post

Due to the length of the running post for today's trade deadline - and it's only 10:10am - I decided to move it over to a separate page, which can be found here.