Thursday Morning Hot Links

*The Masked Marvel has another chapter of Astros Depth Charts, featuring middle infielders.

*We noted FanGraphs' and Clay Davenport's 2016 early projections yesterday, and they are Fun!

*Speaking of projections, FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan explains a little more about what they mean. Also, they've been pretty spot on with the Astros in the last three years.

*Add the Nationals to the list of teams interested in Yoenis Cespedes. The Mets and White Sox are only willing (reportedly) to offer Cespedes a three-year deal.

*Jon Heyman says the Orioles and Astros are still looking at signing Yovani Gallardo. Meanwhile, Heyman tweeted that the Astros tried for Justin Upton and that the Astros are "nosing around."

*A.J. Hinch is excited about all the excitement about the 2016 Astros.

*Mike Fiers:
You've got to find something that drives you every year, whatever it is. Last year going to the playoffs, losing that first round to KC set a fire under us. We know we should have moved on, and it kind of hurt us in the end like that to lose that way.

*Jake Marisnick says that he has tweaked his swing and worked on his swing path this offseason:
I think you'll see a difference. I can hardly wait to get started.

*Going to Kissimmee? Hinch says the core starters are probably going to get a little more rest in Spring Training, saying that "health is going to be sort of the storyline" of the Spring.

*Most positions are set, except 1B, but it's noted that A.J. Reed will likely spend at least a few weeks at Triple-A.

*Brian T. Smith wrote about the legend that is Colby Rasmus.

*MLB will do its "due diligence" on checking out Yu Darvish following his brother's indictment in Japan for running an illegal gambling ring.

*Cardinals theme nights for 2016 are set, including two promotions during the mid-June series against the Astros. My vote is for "Fingerprinting Night!" and "Deposition Night!" where the first 10,000 fans get fingerprinted by the FBI and investigated for criminal wrongdoing.

*The Astros/Nationals new Spring Training complex smells like a 60-year old landfill. Because that's what it's being built on.

Before you go: Max Stassi apparently calls Jake Marisnick "Big Fudge"

.@JSMarisnick aka big fudge enjoying his @ChickfilA milkshake on the Caravan!!! pic.twitter.com/ilYhbkkJQh

— Max Stassi (@MaxStassi10) January 20, 2016

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

According to Blogger, this is the 11,000th post on Astros County. What are we even doing with our lives?

Hear's what ewe knead too no:

*The Astros, Orioles, and Royals still appear to be the strongest suitors for pitcher Yovani Gallardo.

*And if the Astros aren't interested in giving a draft pick to the Rangers should they sign Gallardo, Buster Olney says that free agent pitcher Doug Fister has received multiple 1-2-year offers.

Fister had a down year in 2015, ultimately losing his starting job in the Nationals' rotation and only striking out five batters per nine innings to go along with a career high in ERA/FIP/xFIP. I could see a scenario in which the Astros sign Fister to a short-term deal and let Brent Strom take a crack at him to see if Fister can regain his prior form.

*Morgan Ensberg is the perfect mindset coach. Ensberg:
I've always been a guy that has had empathy for the players and managers, and I realize that obviously so much data-driven information is being used, and so we're putting players in situations that they don't feel comfortable. Baseball is so hard, and to ask a player to do something that's even more difficult than what they're used to adds even another level of anxiety. I'm there to kind of mentor them and be there for them as they go through these scary times.

*Billy Wagner isn't getting any love.

*...but purging a gaggle of old-timers from the voting ranks of the BBWAA just might help.

*Got $100,000 laying around? Have dinner with an Astro and spouse, ten of your favorite people (who better each be kicking in $10,000), and meet James Taylor.

*Instead of buying championship rings, the Perth Heat of the Australian Baseball League bought a clubhouse dog.

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

*Jim Crane wants to bring in another starter to fill out the rotation behind Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Fiers, and Feldman but notes that long-term deals "don't seem to really pay off." So I guess the trick is to just draft the next big starter, huh?

*The Astros are interested in Yovani Gallardo, but he comes attached with a qualifying offer. The Orioles and Royals are also in on Gallardo, who might choose a new team soon. Drellich noted a few days ago that Gallardo was scouted and signed by Jim Stevenson, who also scouted Dallas Keuchel, and is now with the Astros.

*USA Today's Bob Nightengale says the Astros could be in play for Mike Leake, now that the Giants have signed Johnny Cueto.

*Ken Giles said all the right things during his press conference yesterday, as did A.J. Hinch, with both noting the price tag.
Giles:
They had to give up a lot to get me. That shows how much they want to take it to the next level and take that next step...I think they did a great job. I'm happy to be here and be sought out as an important piece for your organization.

Hinch isn't worried about crowning a closer in December:
I think they all buy in that they're going to have to be a collective group for us to get where we want to get. I'm no dummy. I understand we paid a lot to get Ken Giles. I understand how trade dynamics work. I understand the difference between 100-mph and 90-mph, but right now it's just nothing we need to address.

*NumberFire analyzes Giles and the trade.

*Here's Jayson Stark's excellent article on Pete Rose, who remains a complete and total idiot.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*The Masked Marvel has an opinion post, now that we know Thomas Eshelman is the 4th player headed to Philly.

*In the Giles trade piece, Evan Drellich speculates that clubhouse politics could come into the discussion on whether or not Giles takes over as closer for Luke Gregerson. To which your initial response might be "Blogga, please!" But Gregerson does have bonuses worked into his contract based on the number of games he finishes - like, an extra $1m if he finishes 57 games, bonuses.

*Jesse Spector writes about why Giles should be the set-up man for Luke Gregerson.

*FanGraphs: Ken Giles: Underrated Relief Ace

*The Astros have talked to the Indians about SP Carlos Carrasco, and other teams have checked in on the availability of Carlos Gomez and George Springer. Are they on the block?
Luhnow:
It's a tricky question to answer. Because if you have good players, other clubs are going to ask you about them and any time you get an inbound inquiry on any player, you're going to at least look at it and talk about it with your group.

*The Astros have some interest in free agent pitcher Yovani Gallardo. I would be interested in him giving up all the Rangers' secrets. Like, what sex stuff do they do in their clubhouse? How hard does Cole Hamels like to get whipped after losses? You can't put a price on that information.

*The Astros are still looking for some bullpen help, too (and they are still interested in Tony Sipp). Remember they lost Qualls and - currently - Sipp. Which, say what you want about both, but between the two they threw 103.2IP last year, and the Astros will need to make up those innings. The

*Evan Drellich wonders if the Astros would have interest in Washington's Ian Desmond.

*The Astros had concerns about Aroldis Chapman even before the domestic violence report dropped.

*Watch Lance McCullers do a 61.5" box jump.

Recap for G111 - Brewers @ Astros

Two people were responsible for the Astros 2-0 win over the Brewers today: Wandy, and Geoff Blum. Wandy threw seven shutout innings, though the Brewers certainly helped him out, and Blum had two hits - one of them a two-run homer.

Here's the thing:
Wandy: 7IP, 5H/0ER, 3K:2BB, 19/29 first-pitch strikes, 37/72 non-contact strikes (28 called:9 swinging)
Fulchino: 0.2IP, 1H/0ER, 1BB, 1/4 FPS, 0/8 NCS
Valverde: 1.1IP, 1H/0ER, 2K, 4/6 FPS, 10/22 NCS (6c:4s)

The Brewers left 12 men on base (7 hits, 3 walks, and Jason Kendall was plunked twice), going 0x10 with RISP. They had two on in the first before Braun GIDPed; bases loaded in the 2nd before Lopez grounded out to third, and had a baserunner in every inning. Fulchino was brought in for Wandy in the 8th after Wandy allowed a single to Fielder and walked Frank Catalanotto. With Craig Counsell hitting for J.J. Hardy, Coop brought in Valverde, who got Counsell to pop up to second. With two on and nobody out in the 9th, Valverde got Lopez to fly out and Cameron and Braun to strike out looking to end the game.

Blum hit his homer off Gallardo in the 4th, after Lee had walked. The 4th could have been a much bigger inning as Michaels walked after Blum's homer (who then advanced to 2nd on a WP). Erstad struck out, and Quintero was intentionally walked to get to Wandy, on whose infield single Michaels decided to go for it from third, and was promptly tagged out, ending the inning.

Erstad was tagged out at third on Quintero's fielder's choice, which was a questionable baserunning decision (but that's Astros Baseball. Catch the malaise!).
Once again, the Astros were aggressive at the plate, seeing only 119 pitches - compared to the 165 pitches Milwaukee saw.

Pitch Count Hero: Michael Bourn - 21 pitches on four plate appearances
Pitch Count Punk: Carlos Lee - 10 pitches on 4 PAs (and one of those was a walk!)

Man of the Match: I'm going with Blum. Wandy is the easy decision, but it was Blum who provided the big hit.

Goat of the Game: Darin Erstad? Tagged out at third after hitting a leadoff double, and struck out twice.

Astros record for starting pitchers

So the Astros' SPs have had a lot of no decisions - 31, to be exact. Where are the wins - and losses - coming from, and how does the team fare per starter? Let's take us a gander:

HOU SP	#Starts	Record	#NDs	Team Rec in GS	Run Supp
Roy	21	6-4	11	11-10	4.75
Wandy	20	10-6	4	14-6	4.56
Hampton	17	6-7	4	6-11	4.03
Moehler	17	7-6	4	10-7	4.68
Ortiz	12	3-5	4	5-7	3.86

You may notice that the current SPs' NDs don't add up to 31, but keep in mind Backe (1 ND) and Paulino (3 NDs) have also started games this season. But Roy's 11 no decisions are brutal. So that got me wondering about other team's aces getting NDs. Let's look:

Team/SP	#Starts	Record	#NDs	Team Rec in GS	Run Support
CHC/Zambrano	18	7-4	4	12-6	4.38
StL/Wainwright	21	11-7	3	14-7	5.79
MIL/Gallardo	20	9-7	4	11-9	4.00
CIN/Cueto	20	8-7	5	11-9	3.84
PIT/Duke	20	9-9	2	9-11	4.75

A couple of things stand out about this. I was surprised to see Roy get that kind of run support and still have 11 no decisions. I also found it surprising that Duke and Wainwright had the same or more run support per start. What do you take from this, class?

Matchup for G39 - Brewers at Astros

Be sure to tune in tonight as Deputy Jason takes you on a Magical Mystery Tour through G39. And speaking of G39, is anyone else depressed that the season is almost a quarter over?

I'm with JJO, this is going to be a pretty fun game. Wandy vs. Gallardo - good matchup, and I don't care what anyone says, the Astros need to be playing with a sense of urgency. Berkman said before the Rockets Game 7 that the Astros play 162 Game 7s a year. Well, it's time to play like it, because this season is in danger of slipping away. A loss tonight puts the Astros eight games back of the Brewers for first place. Luckily the Astros have ace Wandy Rodriguez taking the hill tonight.

Wandy

The Astros are 6-2 when Wandy starts (those two losses? The Astros scored no runs), and his ERA hasn't been above 2.20 since the second game of the season. And with the exception of when Cooper pulled him after five innings at Atlanta on May 3, Wandy would be on a streak of eight straight quality starts.

Last three starts:

Date-Opp	IP	H/ER	K:BB	GB/FB	Pit/Str
5/3 @ATL	5	6/3	3:3	8/8	86/55
5/8 vSD	8	5/0	7:0	8/14	116/82
5/14 @COL	7	5/2	11:0	4/10	113/77

Notice the last two starts? 18 strikeouts, no walks. Still has not allowed a home run. Eight of Wandy's 15 walks have been to the first batter of the inning.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 32x136, .235/.300/.294, 36K:11BB
vs Lefties: 5x43, .116/.191/.186, 12K:4BB

When swinging at the first pitch (18): .333/.333/.389, 1XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (107): .216/.267/.268, 32K:5BB
After First-Pitch Balls (74): .156/.270/.234, 16K:10BB

RISP: 8x39, .205/.238/.256, 10K:1BB
Runners on: 17x66, .177/.250/.230, 14K:4BB
2OwRISP: 3x19, .158/.200/.158, 7K:0BB

Yovani Gallardo

Gallardo has been somewhat of a revelation for the Brewers this season. After throwing just 24 innings last season, Gallardo is 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 2009.

Last three starts:

Date-Opp	IP	H/ER	K:BB	GB/FB	Pit/Str
4/29 vPIT	8	2/0	11:1	7/9	116/74
5/4 @PIT	7	7/3	5:3	8/15	108/59
5/9 vCHC	5	5/2	8:5	4/8	102/60

Gallardo hasn't pitched since May 9 due to scheduling problems thanks to a rain-shortened outing. But he did throw against the Astros on April 24 as the Brewers won that game 5-4 against Felipe Paulino. How did that shake out?

Matsui: Single up middle, struck out looking, groundout to third, groundout to first
Bourn: Bunt groundout, single to left, single to center, struck out looking
Berkman: Groundout to 2nd, struck out looking, struck out looking, struckout looking
Lee: Flied out to right, homer to left, flied out to right (Keppinger in) groundout to short
Tejada: Groundout to second, flied out center, flied out to left
Pence: Groundout to second, flied out to center, single to center
Blum: Lined out to first, lined out to second, GIDP
Quintero: Groundout to short, (Pudge in) groundout to pitcher, flied out to center
Paulino: Groundout to short, struck out swinging, (Erstad PH) struck out swinging

Yep, that was a complete game. Through the order...
1st PA: 1x9
2nd PA: 3x9
3rd PA+: 2x13

The Astros got some hard-hit balls, but they found a lot of outfielders. Or they found the same outfielders a lot. Or you know what I mean.

Let's do the splits:
vs Righties: 12x71, .169/.253/.380, 18K:7BB
vs Lefties: 21x99, .212/.291/.323, 29K:9BB

When swinging at the first pitch (15): .533/.563/1.133, 5XBH
After First-Pitch Strikes (82): .133/.207/.253, 26K:7BB
After First-Pitch Balls (92): .188/.286/.288, 21K:9BB

RISP: 6x37, .162/.311/.324, 11K:6BB
Runners on: 9x64, .226/.274/.358, 17K:9BB
2OwRISP: 3x17, .176/.364/.353, 5K:4BB

Unsettling stat of the splits: With two strikes, opposing hitters have a 1x33 (.030) success rate.

Recap, G17 - Brewers at Astros

That one wasn't very fun, either. Paulino was cruising until the 5th inning. Had a 2-0 lead, thanks to Carlos Lee's homer, and then boom! (homage to the recently retired John Madden) the 5th inning came along. What happened in that 4-run 5th?

Bill Hall popped out to short
Kendall singled to center
Gallardo sac bunted, Kendall to 2nd
Weeks reached on infield single
Hart singled to right, Kendall scored
Braun singled to right, Weeks scored
Fielder singled to right, Hart scored
Cameron singled to right, Braun scored
Fielder out at 3rd

Strange, because of the ten hits Paulino gave up - only one was an extra-base hit, a double in the 4th.

FP strike: 13
FB ball: 10

Paulino: 6IP, 10H, 4ER, 4K:0BB
Fulchino: 3IP, 1H, 1ER, 1K:0BB

The Astros pitcher gave up 11 hits, but no walks for what - if memory serves - is the only time this season. The Brewers only connected on two extra-base hits, Cameron's double and Rickie Weeks (Rickie Weeks!?) double. Here's the thing about Fulchino's outing - after the homer to Weeks, Fulchino sat down nine straight Brewers. Pudge did have to come in for Quintero in the 5th after a collision at home with Mike Cameron (where Pence nailed Cameron at home for one of two outfield assists), who should be used to collisions by now. Cameron, not Quintero.

Pitcher	Pit/Str	Strike%	BF/Outs	Efficiency%	GB/FB/K
Paulino	91/64	70.3%	27/18	66.7%	7/5/4
Fulchino	39/21	53.8%	10/9	90%	5/3/1

It's that dadgum offense, though. Berkman went 0x4 to dip his average to .186 after striking out - looking - three times. Lee provided all the runs with what was then a 2-run shot in the 4th. Managing only five hits - one from Matsui, two from Bourn, the one big one from Lee and one from Pence. Other hitless wonders include Tejada (0x3), Blum (0x3), Quintero/Pudge (0x3). Batters 5-8 went 1x12. Oh, and did the game always feel like it was in the top half of the inning? That's because the Astros had six 1-2-3 innings.

Man of the Match:
Jeff Fulchino. Despite the 5th run to Weeks, Fulchino actually stopped the juggernaut Brewers' offense with nine straight outs.

Goat of the Game:
Does it seem like I'm picking on Berkman? Maybe so, because it's real easy to do from Tennessee. I'm going to the game in Atlanta on Saturday, so I don't mind explaining. But a 6-11 record with Berkman hitting .186 makes a little sense.

Matchup for G17 - Brewers @ Astros

The Astros come in off their first home series win of the season, but the Brewers have won three of their last four games, as well. Two relatively unknown quantities - in that Paulino and Gallardo either did not pitch, or barely pitched in 2008 square off in the final three games of a 10-game homestand, in which the Astros are 3-4.

Felipe Paulino

Paulino comes in for his second of what looks to be three starts before Brian Moehler comes off the DL. What happened last start? Total domination until the bullpen came in the game and killed it. Versus the Reds last Sunday?

6IP, 3H, 0ER, 6K:2BB, 1HBP, 1WP, 7GB/7FB, 20ABs:1XBH

First-pitch strikes: 12 (.250/.250/.333)
First-pitch balls: 10 (.000/.200/.000)

Yovani Gallardo

Gallardo was one of those Keys to 2008 for the Brewers, pitch in three games in April/May, and was out until September 25. Amazingly enough, with the exception of the September game, Gallardo threw all quality starts, and was on his way to a 4th when he was lifted due to a strict pitch count, in which he only threw 67 pitches. So we have two unknown quantities going at each other.

And based on this season's appearances, we still don't know what to expect. Here are his three starts to date:

@SFG	6.2IP	6H/2ER	6K:2BB	12GB/8FB
vCIN	5IP	3H/7ER	3K:4BB	5GB/9FB
@NYM	6IP	5H/0ER	7K:2BB	7GB/8FB

So who knows? Of 306 total pitches, he's thrown 189 strikes, 62 of them swinging.

First-pitch strikes: 30 (.107/.167/.250)
First-pitch balls: 39 (.167/.667/.167)