The Astros lost to the Marlins 2-1. Springer, Brantley (2B), Garneau, Stubbs, and Jack Mayfield had hits. Houston was 0x1 w/RISP. Zack Greinke threw 3IP, 2H/0ER, 2K:0BB. 27 of his 38 pitches were for strikes. Pressly, Osuna, and Devenski had scoreless innings. Austin Pruitt threw 3IP, 4H/2ER, 0K:0BB.
Dusty: The Astros hitting is behind the pitching right now.
*Yordan has been shut down for 3-4 days due to his knee soreness. This is decidedly not a good sign. Correa has the back of a 60-year old and Yordan has the knees of a 70-year old. Manfred's punishment has officially gone too far.
In that link you can read about last year's Jimmy V Award winner Rob Mendez making an appearance at Astros camp.
*Kyle Tucker is hitless this Spring, but says "it will turn around." Tucker:
It's still Spring Training. It's kind of 'whatever' in Spring Training. I try to go out there and play and try to do well. But, I mean, if you don't, at the end of the day it's still Spring Training and you're still gearing up for the season, so that's when you really want to start doing well.
Kyle Tucker looks he like needs to drink a gallon of whole milk every day for the next six months, but he has played way more Major (or Minor) League Baseball than I will ever play. But when Dusty went on record on February 19 and said the longer that Josh Reddick plays in Spring Training, the worse it is for Tucker...Tucker needs to not have so much of a "whatever" stance if he hopes to break camp with the Astros. Maybe K-Tuck just likes Kerbey Lane Cafe and IKEA there in North Austin.
*Zack Greinke throws better when he works out less, a hypothesis I'm willing to test out.
*Austin Pruitt compared the analytics of the Astros and the Rays. Pruitt:
There's really not a whole lot (different). It is very, very similar. They give you the plots and the charts and whatnot. They show you what your stuff is doing, where it's best played in the zone, where you're going to get the most swings and misses. Really....it's pretty similar.
*Brian McTaggart asked Astros veterans which young guys have impressed them. It's a fun read.
Springer: Taylor Jones
Correa/Bregman: Myles Straw
Jared Hughes: Blake Taylor
Click for quotes.
*Jake Kaplan: Myles Straw might be the prototypical 26th Man. Kaplan:
When the Astros are at full strength, Straw will be best deployed as a late-game defensive replacement in center or as a pinch-running specialist. But when the inevitable injuries strike, his ability to move around will make for a more flexible roster.
*Cuts could be coming tomorrow.
*Something I'm sure will draw no media attention whatsoever and be met with zero condemnation: The Astros will celebrate their 2019 AL Pennant during the weekend of March 26-29. All fans on March 27 will get a replica AL trophy.
*Single-game tickets will go on-sale at 9am Central. I'm sure it will be smooth sailing for any of you wishing to embark on this journey.
*ESPN's David Schoenfield: What rewatching two 2017 World Series games (Games 4 & 5) tells us. An incredibly-honest note before he gets into his analysis:
None of this will change anyone's opinion on anything and there is no smoking gun, but here are my notes from re-watching the two games.
*I haven't subscribed to ESPN+ yet because I really think Leeds will go up this year (meaning NBC Sports will mean that I can watch them there), but Kiley McDaniel posted his Top 100 Prospects list.
*Tyler Bauer tied his Bit in telling the hitters what was coming to Gerrit Cole's spin rate. Bauer:
You know Brent Strom and those guys over there have a lot of different tips when it comes to spin. When he was with the Cardinals and everyone talked about going east and west, then he finally got over to Houston and got control of the reins a little bit and started talking about going north and south. People act like it's a new thing, but it's not a new thing.
*SI: What's next in the fight for minor-leaguers.
*Hardball Times: The Not-So-Private Lives of Baseball Wives.
*The Athletic: Inside the Rockies' fight to cure their road woes.
*This dipshit now faces federal charges for being a complete dick.
*Clap it up for Vermont's Josh Speidel.
*The Atlantic: The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, And Everyone Knows It.
*Photos of the tornado damage in Tennessee.
*This backpack has it all: Kevlar, batteries, and a federal investigation.
*A Musical Selection, as I'm really getting into Get Happy!:
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Showing posts with label 2017. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2017. Show all posts
Thursday, March 5, 2020
Friday, August 2, 2019
Friday Morning Hot Links
Wow not as much news today. The Astros are now 1-1 in the Zack Greinke Era after beating Cleveland 7-1 and taking the series. They're 70-40 with an eight game lead on Oakland. There are 52 regular season games left.
I've seen a couple of places that this win matches the 2017 for the fastest to 70 wins. It's not. The 2017 team started off 70-39, this team got their 70th win one game later. They were both 70-40 after 110 games, though. Game in which the Astros recorded their 70th win:
2019: 110
2018: 111
2017: 109
2016: 132
2015: 127
2014: 160
2013: n/a
2012: n/a
2011: n/a
2010: 145
*Houston is 47-29 against teams at or above .500. The next closest win total to that is Oakland, with 39. 76 of Houston's 110 games have come against teams at or above .500 when they played. That's nuts. Number of games other contenders have played against winning teams:
Oakland: 70
Tampa: 66
Los Angeles: 57
Minnesota: 53
New York: 51
*The Astros went 4-2 on the road against St. Louis and Cleveland. Hinch:
Two series wins against two really good teams. We've got a good demeanor on this club about staying above everything else, getting through the trade deadline. I applaud our guys for continuing to methodically win.
*Gerrit Cole threw 7IP, 4H/1ER, 4K:2BB. It's only the third time that Cole has struck out fewer than five batters in a start. The Astros are 3-0 in those starts. After allowing three home runs to the Rangers on July 12, Cole has allowed two home runs in his last 28IP.
Cole has a nine-game winning streak, the best of his career. Cole:
We just kept making pitches and trying to mix up spots. Although they were putting them in play for the most part, their hitters were off-balance outside of maybe four-five. It was a good night.
*Hector Rondon came in for the 8th and promptly loaded the bases for Yasiel Puig before Joe Smith got him out of it in two pitches. Rondon has made 43 appearances in 2019 and has allowed at least one hit in 23 of them. He has allowed multiple baserunners in 16 of them.
*Chris Devenski needed eight pitches to retire the side in the 9th. On May 12 Devenski had a 5.94 ERA. In 27 appearances since, Devenski: 31.1IP, 23H/12ER, 37K:13BB, 3.45 ERA / 1.15 WHIP.
*Top 6 in the lineup: 10x21, 1K:7BB, 4 doubles / 2 home runs.
*George Springer led off the game with a home run, his 32nd lead-off home run. He's 21 behind franchise leader Craig Biggio.
*Alex Bregman was 3x3 with a home run and two walks. He reached base in all five plate appearances for the first time in his career.
*Yordan Alvarez was 2x5 with two doubles and 2RBI. He's hitting .329/.413/.679. He has put up 1.9 fWAR in 38 games. The only AL rookies with a higher fWAR than Alvarez are Brandon Lowe (2.5 in 76 games) and Dan Vogelbach (2.2 in 100 games).
*Reddick got Super Mad and shaved his mustache after his second AB and then struck out to end the 6th and threw his equipment and got tossed. But Correa and Reddick had assists at home. Hinch:
Our defense was excellent. We made some really big plays, especially early in the game when it was close - from the relay throw from Brantley to Carlos to Maldy, to Reddick's throw. We made plays when they put a little stress on us.
*Jeff Passan has some insight into the Greinke deal (picked this link as it's not paywalled in any way). One key note is that, once the Mets acquired Stroman, the Astros moved in a different direction. Passan:
It dawned on the Astros: No one else was doing anything. The New York Yankees, with a record percentage points better than Houston's but a starting staff entirely inferior, didn't make a single move leading up to the deadline. The Los Angeles Dodgers, the class of the National League, made a couple of cosmetic upgrades. How others maneuver can't guide decision-making, but it can inform it, another data point on the side of why surrendering four good prospects would make sense.
It is an excellent read, well worth your time.
*There will be a Zack Greinke orange t-shirt giveaway on Tuesday, which also happens to be Greinke's Astros debut.
Greinke has made eight starts at Minute Maid Park. Two of those starts he didn't get 10 outs - and one of those he only threw four pitches. It's been so long that it almost doesn't matter, but in eight starts at Minute Maid Park Greinke has thrown 44.1IP, 43H/15ER, 40K:9BB. He has allowed three home runs at Minute Maid Park.
Verlander, on the Greinke trade:
I was shocked...To bring in a guy of that caliber, not only for this year but for the next couple of years, I think it was a great move for the organization for now and the future...I think they did a great job of understanding where we're at as an organization and keeping their foot on the gas and extending that window. I don't know what went on behind the scenes, but that was a huge move, a huge boost of morale in the clubhouse. Not that we were low, but man that's a shot in the arm, a shot of adrenaline getting guys like that.
Click that link to read about how Verlander and the rest of the organization plans to help Aaron Sanchez. It's basically porn.
Chandler Rome takes a look at the farm system in the wake of the Greinke trade. Rome:
A verdict on the Greinke trade is probably two or three years away. What is apparent, though, is the Astros need to replenish their farm system - something they've rarely worried about in the last three years.
I have zero issues letting the team that built the farm system that allowed trades for Verlander, Cole, and Greinke and still be in the top half of farm systems continue to build the farm system.
Also: Hey I went on the Matt Hammond Show Wednesday evening, and we mucked it up. Matt's a sweetheart and he's also extremely handsome and I hate him for it.
SI's J.A. Tayler: Is it too early to crown the Astros? Answer: Yes. Yes it is. Bob Nightengale has the Most Cursed Column Of The Day: The Houston Astros won themselves the World Series and saved the trade deadline. Do not read this or you have to send it to someone else lest they die within seven days.
SportsBetting dot foreign country dot com has the Astros with the best odds to win the World Series, at 3:1.
Jeff Luhnow:
We have a chance to win the World Series. The last thing I wanted to do is leave a stone unturned and [get] knocked out in October, and wonder what would have happened if we hadn't acquired another piece.
*Luhnow, on the deadline:
The primary focus was improving the team for the short term, especially this year. Comparing options, clearly having players that would be here longer was a big plus.
*Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado will share catching duties, but Chirinos will get the majority of the starts.
*Confirmed: Aaron Sanchez will get the start on Saturday against the Mariners. Excellent SportsNet article on why the Blue Jays don't think Aaron Sanchez can capture his 2016 ERA-King form. Arden Zwelling:
...The nearly three seasons [since his 2016 season] all strongly suggest that version of Sanchez isn't coming back. And the data from his current campaign, a season in which he's remained healthy enough to make all of his starts for the first time since Barack Obama was U.S. president, indicates matters may be getting worse.
Combine that with the fact his remaining years of club control don't time with Toronto's potential return to contention in 2021, and that he's due a raise this winter on his $3.9m salaray through arbitration - making him a less attractive asset to other teams, particularly if he's moved to the bullpen - and you end up with Sanchez continuing his quest to rediscover his prior effectiveness with another organization.
Here's Jake Kaplan, on how the Astros could alter the pitch usage of Joe Biagini and Aaron Sanchez. Because the Astros are smarter than literally everybody else. Why do I even do this it was so much easier when Ed Wade was in charge.
*Jose Urquidy and Myles Straw were optioned to Round Rock and Bryan Abreu was optioned to Corpus to make room for Greinke, Biagini, and Sanchez.
*Brad Peacock will begin a rehab stint with Round Rock starting tomorrow. Josh James is about to begin a throwing program.
*There is apparently an annual Home Run Derby at Minute Maid Park. This time, it's on Sunday. At noon. Luke Scott, Brian Bogusevic, Geoff Blum, and Hero Brandon Backe will participate.
*The audio is a little sketchy, but here's the audio of the Lima Time Time Live Show, recorded Saturday evening at The Secret Group on Polk in Houston.
*The Astros are paying $25m for a MMP renovation:
...that will include a new club for season ticket holders on the stadium's suite level and changes in the right field corner resembling the recent center field renovations, including another open-access staircase between stadium levels.
*Here's the new Astros' Top 30 Prospects list. Biggest beneficiary of the Tradez? Cristian Javier.
*Kyle Tucker, who did not get traded on Wednesday, made his 4th start at 1B for Round Rock last night. He went 1x4 with a walk as Round Rock beat Old Friend Fresno 15-7. Alex De Goti was 4x5 with two doubles and 2RBI. Jack Mayfield and Nick Tanielu (HR) were each 3x5 with 3RBI. Humberto Castellanos threw 3IP, 0H/0ER, 4K:0BB.
Castellanos, 21, has pitched for Quad Cities, Fayetteville, and Round Rock in 2019. In 63.1IP this season (for three teams), Castellanos has allowed 50H/20ER, 74K:8BB, 1 HR. He has a 1.69 ERA in 10.2IP for Round Rock this season. I like this kid.
Round Rock is 65-44, 2.5 back of San Antonio.
*Forrest Whitley, who did not get traded on Wednesday, will start for Corpus on Sunday.
*Abraham Toro got called up to Round Rock from Corpus.
Toro (5th Round - 2016): .306/.393/.513, 22 doubles / 16 homers, 77K:48BB in 435 PAs. The Bull is legit. I was worried he'd be included in a deal at the deadline.
*Jake Adams and Jonathan Arauz got called up from Fayetteville to Corpus.
Adams (6th Round - 2017): .246/.312/.424, 12 doubles / 15 homers, 86K:31BB in 362 PAs.
Arauz (traded in the Giles/Appel deal with Philadelphia): .252/.322/.388, 19 doubles / 8 home runs, 69K:30BB in 354 PAs.
[Teddy KGB Voice] Very Aggressive.
*Tito Francona, on trading Tiddy Baby Tyler Bauer, and his throwing the ball over the center field wall (nice throw, btw) in his last act as a ClevelandIndian Spider:
I had concerns what it could do to our team, and I voiced those concerns. I would never, ever go tell [the front office] something, but they are good enough to always allow me my opinion, and you just try to do the best you can, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little bit worried.
*Tony Kemp was 0x3 as the Cardinals one-hit the Cubs. Tyler White was 0x3 with a walk in the Dodgers' win.
*Inside the Members-Only Eating Clubs of San Sebastian.
*A Musical Selection:
I've seen a couple of places that this win matches the 2017 for the fastest to 70 wins. It's not. The 2017 team started off 70-39, this team got their 70th win one game later. They were both 70-40 after 110 games, though. Game in which the Astros recorded their 70th win:
2019: 110
2018: 111
2017: 109
2016: 132
2015: 127
2014: 160
2013: n/a
2012: n/a
2011: n/a
2010: 145
*Houston is 47-29 against teams at or above .500. The next closest win total to that is Oakland, with 39. 76 of Houston's 110 games have come against teams at or above .500 when they played. That's nuts. Number of games other contenders have played against winning teams:
Oakland: 70
Tampa: 66
Los Angeles: 57
Minnesota: 53
New York: 51
*The Astros went 4-2 on the road against St. Louis and Cleveland. Hinch:
Two series wins against two really good teams. We've got a good demeanor on this club about staying above everything else, getting through the trade deadline. I applaud our guys for continuing to methodically win.
*Gerrit Cole threw 7IP, 4H/1ER, 4K:2BB. It's only the third time that Cole has struck out fewer than five batters in a start. The Astros are 3-0 in those starts. After allowing three home runs to the Rangers on July 12, Cole has allowed two home runs in his last 28IP.
Cole has a nine-game winning streak, the best of his career. Cole:
We just kept making pitches and trying to mix up spots. Although they were putting them in play for the most part, their hitters were off-balance outside of maybe four-five. It was a good night.
*Hector Rondon came in for the 8th and promptly loaded the bases for Yasiel Puig before Joe Smith got him out of it in two pitches. Rondon has made 43 appearances in 2019 and has allowed at least one hit in 23 of them. He has allowed multiple baserunners in 16 of them.
*Chris Devenski needed eight pitches to retire the side in the 9th. On May 12 Devenski had a 5.94 ERA. In 27 appearances since, Devenski: 31.1IP, 23H/12ER, 37K:13BB, 3.45 ERA / 1.15 WHIP.
*Top 6 in the lineup: 10x21, 1K:7BB, 4 doubles / 2 home runs.
*George Springer led off the game with a home run, his 32nd lead-off home run. He's 21 behind franchise leader Craig Biggio.
*Alex Bregman was 3x3 with a home run and two walks. He reached base in all five plate appearances for the first time in his career.
*Yordan Alvarez was 2x5 with two doubles and 2RBI. He's hitting .329/.413/.679. He has put up 1.9 fWAR in 38 games. The only AL rookies with a higher fWAR than Alvarez are Brandon Lowe (2.5 in 76 games) and Dan Vogelbach (2.2 in 100 games).
*Reddick got Super Mad and shaved his mustache after his second AB and then struck out to end the 6th and threw his equipment and got tossed. But Correa and Reddick had assists at home. Hinch:
Our defense was excellent. We made some really big plays, especially early in the game when it was close - from the relay throw from Brantley to Carlos to Maldy, to Reddick's throw. We made plays when they put a little stress on us.
*Jeff Passan has some insight into the Greinke deal (picked this link as it's not paywalled in any way). One key note is that, once the Mets acquired Stroman, the Astros moved in a different direction. Passan:
It dawned on the Astros: No one else was doing anything. The New York Yankees, with a record percentage points better than Houston's but a starting staff entirely inferior, didn't make a single move leading up to the deadline. The Los Angeles Dodgers, the class of the National League, made a couple of cosmetic upgrades. How others maneuver can't guide decision-making, but it can inform it, another data point on the side of why surrendering four good prospects would make sense.
It is an excellent read, well worth your time.
*There will be a Zack Greinke orange t-shirt giveaway on Tuesday, which also happens to be Greinke's Astros debut.
Greinke has made eight starts at Minute Maid Park. Two of those starts he didn't get 10 outs - and one of those he only threw four pitches. It's been so long that it almost doesn't matter, but in eight starts at Minute Maid Park Greinke has thrown 44.1IP, 43H/15ER, 40K:9BB. He has allowed three home runs at Minute Maid Park.
Verlander, on the Greinke trade:
I was shocked...To bring in a guy of that caliber, not only for this year but for the next couple of years, I think it was a great move for the organization for now and the future...I think they did a great job of understanding where we're at as an organization and keeping their foot on the gas and extending that window. I don't know what went on behind the scenes, but that was a huge move, a huge boost of morale in the clubhouse. Not that we were low, but man that's a shot in the arm, a shot of adrenaline getting guys like that.
Click that link to read about how Verlander and the rest of the organization plans to help Aaron Sanchez. It's basically porn.
Chandler Rome takes a look at the farm system in the wake of the Greinke trade. Rome:
A verdict on the Greinke trade is probably two or three years away. What is apparent, though, is the Astros need to replenish their farm system - something they've rarely worried about in the last three years.
I have zero issues letting the team that built the farm system that allowed trades for Verlander, Cole, and Greinke and still be in the top half of farm systems continue to build the farm system.
Also: Hey I went on the Matt Hammond Show Wednesday evening, and we mucked it up. Matt's a sweetheart and he's also extremely handsome and I hate him for it.
SI's J.A. Tayler: Is it too early to crown the Astros? Answer: Yes. Yes it is. Bob Nightengale has the Most Cursed Column Of The Day: The Houston Astros won themselves the World Series and saved the trade deadline. Do not read this or you have to send it to someone else lest they die within seven days.
SportsBetting dot foreign country dot com has the Astros with the best odds to win the World Series, at 3:1.
Jeff Luhnow:
We have a chance to win the World Series. The last thing I wanted to do is leave a stone unturned and [get] knocked out in October, and wonder what would have happened if we hadn't acquired another piece.
*Luhnow, on the deadline:
The primary focus was improving the team for the short term, especially this year. Comparing options, clearly having players that would be here longer was a big plus.
*Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado will share catching duties, but Chirinos will get the majority of the starts.
*Confirmed: Aaron Sanchez will get the start on Saturday against the Mariners. Excellent SportsNet article on why the Blue Jays don't think Aaron Sanchez can capture his 2016 ERA-King form. Arden Zwelling:
...The nearly three seasons [since his 2016 season] all strongly suggest that version of Sanchez isn't coming back. And the data from his current campaign, a season in which he's remained healthy enough to make all of his starts for the first time since Barack Obama was U.S. president, indicates matters may be getting worse.
Combine that with the fact his remaining years of club control don't time with Toronto's potential return to contention in 2021, and that he's due a raise this winter on his $3.9m salaray through arbitration - making him a less attractive asset to other teams, particularly if he's moved to the bullpen - and you end up with Sanchez continuing his quest to rediscover his prior effectiveness with another organization.
Here's Jake Kaplan, on how the Astros could alter the pitch usage of Joe Biagini and Aaron Sanchez. Because the Astros are smarter than literally everybody else. Why do I even do this it was so much easier when Ed Wade was in charge.
*Jose Urquidy and Myles Straw were optioned to Round Rock and Bryan Abreu was optioned to Corpus to make room for Greinke, Biagini, and Sanchez.
*Brad Peacock will begin a rehab stint with Round Rock starting tomorrow. Josh James is about to begin a throwing program.
*There is apparently an annual Home Run Derby at Minute Maid Park. This time, it's on Sunday. At noon. Luke Scott, Brian Bogusevic, Geoff Blum, and Hero Brandon Backe will participate.
*The audio is a little sketchy, but here's the audio of the Lima Time Time Live Show, recorded Saturday evening at The Secret Group on Polk in Houston.
*The Astros are paying $25m for a MMP renovation:
...that will include a new club for season ticket holders on the stadium's suite level and changes in the right field corner resembling the recent center field renovations, including another open-access staircase between stadium levels.
*Here's the new Astros' Top 30 Prospects list. Biggest beneficiary of the Tradez? Cristian Javier.
*Kyle Tucker, who did not get traded on Wednesday, made his 4th start at 1B for Round Rock last night. He went 1x4 with a walk as Round Rock beat Old Friend Fresno 15-7. Alex De Goti was 4x5 with two doubles and 2RBI. Jack Mayfield and Nick Tanielu (HR) were each 3x5 with 3RBI. Humberto Castellanos threw 3IP, 0H/0ER, 4K:0BB.
Castellanos, 21, has pitched for Quad Cities, Fayetteville, and Round Rock in 2019. In 63.1IP this season (for three teams), Castellanos has allowed 50H/20ER, 74K:8BB, 1 HR. He has a 1.69 ERA in 10.2IP for Round Rock this season. I like this kid.
Round Rock is 65-44, 2.5 back of San Antonio.
*Forrest Whitley, who did not get traded on Wednesday, will start for Corpus on Sunday.
*Abraham Toro got called up to Round Rock from Corpus.
Toro (5th Round - 2016): .306/.393/.513, 22 doubles / 16 homers, 77K:48BB in 435 PAs. The Bull is legit. I was worried he'd be included in a deal at the deadline.
*Jake Adams and Jonathan Arauz got called up from Fayetteville to Corpus.
Adams (6th Round - 2017): .246/.312/.424, 12 doubles / 15 homers, 86K:31BB in 362 PAs.
Arauz (traded in the Giles/Appel deal with Philadelphia): .252/.322/.388, 19 doubles / 8 home runs, 69K:30BB in 354 PAs.
[Teddy KGB Voice] Very Aggressive.
*Tito Francona, on trading Tiddy Baby Tyler Bauer, and his throwing the ball over the center field wall (nice throw, btw) in his last act as a Cleveland
I had concerns what it could do to our team, and I voiced those concerns. I would never, ever go tell [the front office] something, but they are good enough to always allow me my opinion, and you just try to do the best you can, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little bit worried.
*Tony Kemp was 0x3 as the Cardinals one-hit the Cubs. Tyler White was 0x3 with a walk in the Dodgers' win.
*Inside the Members-Only Eating Clubs of San Sebastian.
*A Musical Selection:
Sunday, June 16, 2019
Sunday Morning Hot Links
It's Father's Day. Shoutout to you dads who, like me, are just doing their best. We sometimes do a decent job, sometimes we crap the bed. But we're trying, and hope that the good days outweigh the bad and our kids turn out okay. There's a number of you who desperately want to be dads, but it hasn't been in the cards for you to this point. I very much understand that, and feel for you. I've been there. The Wife and I are 1x7 on successful pregnancies. If there is any way that I can lend an ear, be a shoulder, or help, please reach out and let me know. Email me at astroscounty at gmail dot com. Infertility issues are a different beast for you dudes, and I might be able to at least help a little. Also, I know there's at least a few of you who don't have great relationships (or any kind of relationship) with your father. I feel for you. These holidays are the worst for people who haven't enjoyed Hallmark lives, and I'm sorry for that.
Framber is good. Framber is handsome. If I order some apps, Framber can have some. Yordan is nuts. Super Jack had himself a day. The Astros handled the Blue Jays 7-2. They are 48-23, one game better than the 2017 Astros after the all-important 71st game of the season. Houston is 35-15 in their last 50 games, 30-10 in their last 40 games, 22-8 in their last 30. 15-5 in their last 20.
*Round Rock beat up on Seattle's Triple-A team, which is apparently not their MLB team, 14-0. Cy Sneed threw 6.2IP, 2H/0ER, 5K:2BB. Kyle Tucker went 3x5 with 2HR/5RBI, his 22nd and 23rd homers of the season. It is the middle of June. Drew Ferguson went 4x5 and Josh Rojas hit his 1st Triple-A homer of the year.
*Former Astros Great Trent Thornton (5th Round - 2015 draft), whom the Astros traded for Aledmys Diaz, will start today's game for Toronto. He's 1-5 with the Blue Jays in this, his first major-league season, with a 4.78 ERA / 1.41 WHIP. Thornton, via Chandler Rome:
*2017 vs 2019 wins, by calendar month:
March/April: 16 / 18
May: 22 / 20
June: 16 / 9
July: 15 / ?
August: 11 / ?
September/October: 20
I got loose on Twitter the other night (alcohol was involved - it's summer) and said the Astros would win 107 games this season. In order for that to happen, the Astros will have to go 59-32 the rest of the season, that's a .648 win% after they've been winning at a .676 clip and not having Springer, Altuve, Correa, and Diaz for the better part of a month AND playing the 5th-hardest schedule in baseball to this point. And only 26 of the 91 remaining games are against teams currently above .500. And now they have Yordan. This team is scary.
*Yordan Alvarez was 3x4 with a solo home run. It's his 4th home run in his first five MLB games. Tyler White hit three home runs in his first five MLB games. This means absolutely nothing. HOWEVER! Yordan is the 4th player in MLB history to hit four home runs in their first five games, joining Trevor Story, Yasiel Puig, and Mike Jacobs. Hinch, on Alvarez:
I'm probably having about as hard a time describing him as you're having writing about him...It's been very impressive to watch him methodically go about his business like a much more experienced player than he is. He's soaking up all the information that we have, he's leaning on teammates and he's in the batter's box and in complete control of the at-bat.
*Jack Mayfield was 3x4 with three doubles. It's the 39th time in franchise history that a player has had three doubles in a game, and the first since Yuli Gurriel did it on April 6. Bregman did it twice in 2018, and that was it until Chris Carter did it in a 14-6 loss to the Cubs on June 23, 2013. McTaggart notes that Mayfield is the first Astros rookie to hit three doubles in a game since Terry Puhl in 1977. He's the third 2B in franchise history to have three doubles in a game, joining Mark Loretta, Craig Biggio, and Art Howe.
Oh, and Jack Mayfield was 2x34 for 2019 coming into this game. Baseball makes no sense, and that's why we love it...until we hate it because it makes no sense. Mayfield and Yordan are buddies, and it's Very Sweet.
*Tyler White was 2x3 with a walk. It's the 8th multi-hit game of the season for White, first since June 6. He had his 4th GIDP of the season, in four PAs (166 PAs). He GIDP'd once in 304 PAs spread out over 2017-18.
*Yuli Gurriel was 0x4. He's now hitting .255/.288/.390 on the season. The Astros won a game 7-2 with a .678 OPS in the 3-spot.
*Myles Straw was 2x4 with 2RBI. It's the 3rd multi-hit game and the first multi-RBI game of his career.
*Framber Valdez straight up FRAMBUSHED the Blue Jays, throwing 6IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:2BB. He struck out nine Angels on September 23, 2018 for his career-high. Oh, and check out how he got buzzed by a line drive that took out his hat.
Framber's two starts, 2019: 13IP, 9H/3ER, 15K:2BB. I like him.
*Chris Devenski recorded six outs with no runs for the third time in 2019. He struck out two batters for the 8th time this season. Devenski's last nine appearances: 11IP, 7H/3ER, 17K:6BB. All three earned runs came against the Brewers on June 11.
*Jake Marisnick didn't play last night after leaving Friday's game with "knee discomfort," the Death Knell of Astros Announcements. Hinch said that it might not be too bad. He won't play for a couple of days.
Meanwhile, Wade Miley just hit a ball off the train tracks in batting practice and bat flipped it.— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 15, 2019
*Round Rock beat up on Seattle's Triple-A team, which is apparently not their MLB team, 14-0. Cy Sneed threw 6.2IP, 2H/0ER, 5K:2BB. Kyle Tucker went 3x5 with 2HR/5RBI, his 22nd and 23rd homers of the season. It is the middle of June. Drew Ferguson went 4x5 and Josh Rojas hit his 1st Triple-A homer of the year.
*Former Astros Great Trent Thornton (5th Round - 2015 draft), whom the Astros traded for Aledmys Diaz, will start today's game for Toronto. He's 1-5 with the Blue Jays in this, his first major-league season, with a 4.78 ERA / 1.41 WHIP. Thornton, via Chandler Rome:
I'll be honest. At the very beginning of the season, when I made the team, I was seeing when we were playing Houston. I was just praying to God I'd get to face them.
Careful what you pray for, my dude.
*Quinn Biggio wrote a Dear Dad letter to Craij.
*The Fake-Ass Mariners apparently traded Edwin Encarnacion to the Yankees. Not ideal, October-wise. Please have a 13-2 banner ceremony come March 2020, Dipoto, you piece of garbage. Jerry Dipoto's existence makes me feel sad for Mariners fans, 60% of whom are a good and loyal group.
*How to fix America's worst freeway.
*GQ: Mike Tyson Smokes The Toad.
*Tragic story from the NY Times: How The Music Burned.
*A Musical Selection:
The Hot Links Music playlist on Spotify is now eight hours long, if you're interested.
*Quinn Biggio wrote a Dear Dad letter to Craij.
*The Fake-Ass Mariners apparently traded Edwin Encarnacion to the Yankees. Not ideal, October-wise. Please have a 13-2 banner ceremony come March 2020, Dipoto, you piece of garbage. Jerry Dipoto's existence makes me feel sad for Mariners fans, 60% of whom are a good and loyal group.
*How to fix America's worst freeway.
*GQ: Mike Tyson Smokes The Toad.
*Tragic story from the NY Times: How The Music Burned.
*A Musical Selection:
The Hot Links Music playlist on Spotify is now eight hours long, if you're interested.
Thursday, May 16, 2019
7-8-9 in context
Any
Astros fan over the age of 25 remembers Everett-Ausmus-(Pitcher) in the Astros'
lineup. [Stares out window] Those were the days, huh?
Back in
2004, the bottom third of the Astros' lineup produced a .242/.305/.341 slash
line, which was a significant dropoff from the top two-thirds of the lineup in
which each spot posted an OPS over .800. 7-9 combined to hit 23 home runs all
season.
Obviously
the Astros' game has changed since 2004 - both with analytics from a smart
front office, and with the switch to the AL and the designated hitter. But
still. Let's look at recent history to see how the bottom third of the 2019
Astros' lineup stacks up:
Production,
7-9 in the order, 2019:
|
Season
|
Slash Line
|
OPS
|
K:BB ratio
|
|
2019
|
.272/.348/.471
|
.819
|
2.34
|
|
2018
|
.230/.301/.388
|
.689
|
2.92
|
|
2017
|
.271/.329/.481
|
.810
|
2.52
|
Whereas
the 2004 Astros got 23 home runs from the bottom-third of the lineup, the 2019
Astros have already gotten 19 home runs from their 7-9 hitters. Again, the game
has changed. Still, last night after Marisnick went 2x3 with a single, triple, and 2RBI, he had this to say:
It's a testament to how good this lineup is. I mean, it's a dangerous lineup. It's long. We make pitchers work all the way through.
One of
the hallmarks of the 2017 Astros team was their depth. 44 games into the
season, the 2019 Astros team is deeper - and better offensively - than the 2017
World Series Champion team. This is of course a credit to both Robinson
Chirinos and Jake Marisnick: Chirinos’ 155 wRC+ is far and away the best of his
career, his previous high was 124 wRC+ back in 2017, and he’s posted 1.4 of his
career 4.8 fWAR in 33 games this season. Chirinos is absolutely an upgrade over
Martin Maldonado, who’s hitting .191/.288/.255 in 34 games for Kansas City.
Marisnick’s
hot start is nothing new – he swung the bat well early in 2017, posting a .917
OPS in April before finishing the year with a .239/.310/.488 line. Marisnick is
just hitting the ball harder this year – his 34.8% Hard-Hit rate is the highest
of his career. The strikeouts are still there for Marisnick, at 30.1% of his
PAs, but that’s still his lowest K-rate since 2016.
So how
does this stack up to the rest of the league? Again, the bottom third of the
order, 2019:
|
“Team”
|
Slash Line
|
OPS
|
K:BB ratio
|
|
Houston
|
.272/.348/.471
|
.819
|
2.34
|
|
American
League
|
.230/.302/.383
|
.685
|
2.93
|
|
MLB
|
.232/.306/.381
|
.687
|
2.80
|
Well I
certainly didn’t expect the American League, with the DH, to have worse
bottom-of-the-order production relative to the rest of MLB.
Coming
into the games of Thursday, May 16 there are only six AL teams at or above
.500. How do those six teams stack up, depth-wise?
|
Team
|
Slash Line
|
OPS
|
K:BB ratio
|
|
Minnesota
|
.275/.354/.509
|
.864
|
2.38
|
|
Houston
|
.272/.348/.471
|
.819
|
2.34
|
|
New
York
|
.270/.344/.452
|
.796
|
2.60
|
|
Tampa
Bay
|
.232/.303/.363
|
.666
|
3.55
|
|
Cleveland
|
.209/.290/.333
|
.623
|
3.14
|
|
Boston
|
.201/.289/.315
|
.604
|
2.48
|
Again,
did not expect to start this as a “look how deep the Astros’ lineup is” piece
and halfway through writing it have to stop and tip my cap to the Twins. But
here we are.
Since
expansion (1962), these are the teams with the highest sOPS+ from 7-9 in the
lineup:
|
Team
|
Slash Line
|
sOPS+
|
K:BB Ratio
|
|
2019
Twins
|
.275/.354/.509
|
149
|
2.38
|
|
1965
Reds
|
.275/.349/.437
|
148
|
1.59
|
|
1963
Twins
|
.280/.346/.431
|
142
|
1.54
|
|
1964
Red Sox
|
.275/.349/.435
|
141
|
1.50
|
|
2003
Red Sox
|
.281/.353/.490
|
141
|
1.97
|
|
2016
Cardinals
|
.273/.346/.479
|
139
|
2.26
|
|
1977
White Sox
|
.278/.356/.446
|
137
|
0.98
|
|
2019
Astros
|
.272/.348/.471
|
137
|
2.34
|
To put it
another way, the Astros have the 6th-highest sOPS+ from the bottom
of their order in the last 57 years of the American League.
Overall,
the Astros’ lineup is incredibly deep. They have a 134 wRC+ top-to-bottom (the
Twins sit at 117 wRC+). The previous record for a season since integration
(1947) was 122 wRC+ set by… the 2017 Astros. Or we can go back to 1900 and see
this:
|
Team
|
wRC+
|
|
2019
Astros
|
134
|
|
1927
Yankees
|
126
|
|
1930
Yankees
|
124
|
|
1931
Yankees
|
124
|
|
2017
Astros
|
122
|
Those are
the top five wRC+ in baseball since 1900, and the 2019 Astros are smoking
Murderers’ Row. Yes, the 1927 Yankees had their Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and
Earle Combs in the same way that the 2019 Astros have their Alex Bregman,
George Springer, and Carlos Correa. But the ’27 Yankees needed Joe Dugan and
Pat Collins like the Astros need Chirinos and Marisnick.
Sunday, February 18, 2018
Sunday Morning Hot Links
*When the Astros acquired Gerrit Cole pretty much everybody said that, with a tweak in his mechanics, he should return to form. Well, A.J. Hinch says Cole doesn't need it:
Gerrit Cole is pretty damn good. He's been an effective big league pitcher. Did he give up a few home runs last year? Yeah. Did he have a slightly down season compared to his standards? Yes. That doesn't mean he can't be a top elite pitcher in the American League just given his stuff, his makeup and his ability to pitch.
*Brian T. Smith: Jim Crane knows he has a team that's built to last.
*Ken Giles worked on his endurance this offseason, and he cares not for your worries about him.
*In The Athletic (subscription required) Francis Martes has made the Astros well-pleased with his refined delivery.
Here's a similar story in the Chronicle. Hinch:
He's throwing as hard as anybody in camp. It's still really early, but he came really prepared.
*Brady Rodgers and Jandel Gustave - both coming off Tommy John surgery in 2017 - are on a restricted program that involves some "light throwing."
*Luhnow said that, had Colin Moran not fouled a ball off his face, the Astros might not have traded him to the Pirates:
I think had he been given that opportunity, I think he would have hit .300, I think he would have hit for power. We might not have traded him because we might have wanted to figure out a way to keep him on our club.
*Luhnow talked to Newsday's David Lennon about the slow offseason and the thinking behind the front office slow-play:
We all have great young players in our system and on our big-league teams. And because the investment is so high in young players, they get to the big leagues fairly early. They're still developing at the big leagues, and so swapping one of the young players out for an established veteran is not as attractive today as it would have been five years ago or 10 years ago...It could be that there's just simply fewer spots because a lot of the younger players are taking up spots and they're contributing. It doesn't explain everything, but part of the dynamic is that we're doing a good job as an industry developing young talent and valuing that talent.
You look at who would make a list of the Great GMs in the game right now, and it's a fairly short list: Theo, Luhnow, Dayton Moore, Billy Beane (?), Brian Cashman. How did they get there? It's through drafting - and developing - that talent. We are now in a cycle in which GMs that rely on trades and free agent signings to bolster their team aren't doing so well (see: Dipoto, Jerry). Perhaps the most important "skill" for a GM right now is the ability to draft well.
Look at the playoff teams from 2017 and how many players on the current 40-Man roster - with 1.0+ years of service time - were acquired through the draft, signed as an amateur free agent, or a Rule 5 pick:
Colorado: 14
Washington: 13
Cleveland: 12
Minnesota: 12
Arizona: 11
Boston: 10
Houston: 9
Los Angeles: 9
New York: 8
Chicago: 5
Okay, I'll be honest, I didn't think Chicago would rank last here, but it is what it is. The average number of players who meet this criteria for 2017 playoff teams is 11.1 players/per roster.
Let's look at the teams that finished under .500 with the same criteria:
New York Mets: 15
San Francisco: 13
Detroit: 12
Arlington: 11
Baltimore: 10
Pittsburgh: 9
Cincinnati: 9
Chicago White Sox: 8
Philadelphia: 8
Toronto: 7
Anaheim: 6
Kansas City: 6
Miami: 6
Seattle: 6
San Diego: 5
Tampa Bay: 4
Oakland: 3
Atlanta: 2
The average number of players who meet this criteria on sub-.500 teams is 7.0 players.
There are a host of asterisks that could go along with this list: maybe you traded for a guy in A-ball and you developed him into a Major-Leaguer (see: Martes, Francis) and, as a result, he's not on this list. Maybe your team sucks, and the guys that have made this particular cut simply aren't very good, and that's why your team was 64-98 (cough, Mets/Tigers, cough). There are also issues with making this an annual exercise: the White Sox, Padres, and Braves are going to be good soon, but they won't show up as highly on this list because the building blocks they're using were acquired through trades. But I'll let the point stand. I guess.
*Riley Ferrell talked about getting notified of his Spring Training invitation while duck hunting:
About 3:30pm, birds [were] about to start coming in, [and] I was excited for that. I get this text message, and I'm like, 'I don't know who this is.' Looked at it, and I was like 'Oh, I got invited to big league camp. That's pretty cool.' No longer was I worried about birds.
*2016 4th Round pick Brett Adcock (117Ks in 107.2IP at Buies Creek last season) is ready for the season:
I obviously have things I need to fine-tune. If I didn't, I'd be in the big leagues right now. I'm just trying to make myself 1 percent better each day. If I can do that, hopefully I can end up in the right place.
*Josh Reddick, in all his Josh Reddickness (Reddickulousness?), talked about the ballistic missile scare in Hawaii:
I went back to my room (after it was clear that the alert was not real) and it was actually frustrating, because me and my girlfriend were going to visit with the Dolphins that morning. We got there on time. We got to play with the dolphins that morning. It was plenty of time. She wasn't even worried about dying; she was worried about seeing the dolphins. I said, 'Those dolphins can wait, we can see them tomorrow if we're still here.' Still had a great time.
*Rich Hill has chilled out about the 2017 World Series. In a sample poll of Rich Hill and myself, 50% of respondents have chilled out about the 2017 World Series.
*If you find yourself in Fresno on May 12 you can pick up this sweet Carlos Correa Starting Lineup figure.
*Eric Hosmer signed an 8yr/$144m deal (with an opt-out after five years) with the Padres.
*The Rangers have backed out of the deal to sign reliever Seung-Hawn Oh after concerns about his MRI. So here comes a bunch of editorials comparing them to the dastardly Astros and their treatment of Brady Aiken, yes?
*Chris Archer says the Rays could have the best rotation in MLB. And then they traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins, so who knows now?
*Fernando Abad, who signed a new deal with the Phillies for 2018:
2010-2012 w/HOU: 84.2IP, 5.10 ERA / 1.56 WHIP, 1.97 K:BB ratio.
2013-present: 233IP, 3.13 ERA / 1.21 WHIP, 2.58 K:BB ratio.
*The Haunting of Lindsey Jacobellis.
*From No Depression: A musician's life on social media.
*The Globe and Mail's Michael Harris: I Have Forgotten How To Read.
Gerrit Cole is pretty damn good. He's been an effective big league pitcher. Did he give up a few home runs last year? Yeah. Did he have a slightly down season compared to his standards? Yes. That doesn't mean he can't be a top elite pitcher in the American League just given his stuff, his makeup and his ability to pitch.
*Brian T. Smith: Jim Crane knows he has a team that's built to last.
*Ken Giles worked on his endurance this offseason, and he cares not for your worries about him.
*In The Athletic (subscription required) Francis Martes has made the Astros well-pleased with his refined delivery.
Here's a similar story in the Chronicle. Hinch:
He's throwing as hard as anybody in camp. It's still really early, but he came really prepared.
*Brady Rodgers and Jandel Gustave - both coming off Tommy John surgery in 2017 - are on a restricted program that involves some "light throwing."
*Luhnow said that, had Colin Moran not fouled a ball off his face, the Astros might not have traded him to the Pirates:
I think had he been given that opportunity, I think he would have hit .300, I think he would have hit for power. We might not have traded him because we might have wanted to figure out a way to keep him on our club.
*Luhnow talked to Newsday's David Lennon about the slow offseason and the thinking behind the front office slow-play:
We all have great young players in our system and on our big-league teams. And because the investment is so high in young players, they get to the big leagues fairly early. They're still developing at the big leagues, and so swapping one of the young players out for an established veteran is not as attractive today as it would have been five years ago or 10 years ago...It could be that there's just simply fewer spots because a lot of the younger players are taking up spots and they're contributing. It doesn't explain everything, but part of the dynamic is that we're doing a good job as an industry developing young talent and valuing that talent.
You look at who would make a list of the Great GMs in the game right now, and it's a fairly short list: Theo, Luhnow, Dayton Moore, Billy Beane (?), Brian Cashman. How did they get there? It's through drafting - and developing - that talent. We are now in a cycle in which GMs that rely on trades and free agent signings to bolster their team aren't doing so well (see: Dipoto, Jerry). Perhaps the most important "skill" for a GM right now is the ability to draft well.
Look at the playoff teams from 2017 and how many players on the current 40-Man roster - with 1.0+ years of service time - were acquired through the draft, signed as an amateur free agent, or a Rule 5 pick:
Colorado: 14
Washington: 13
Cleveland: 12
Minnesota: 12
Arizona: 11
Boston: 10
Houston: 9
Los Angeles: 9
New York: 8
Chicago: 5
Okay, I'll be honest, I didn't think Chicago would rank last here, but it is what it is. The average number of players who meet this criteria for 2017 playoff teams is 11.1 players/per roster.
Let's look at the teams that finished under .500 with the same criteria:
New York Mets: 15
San Francisco: 13
Detroit: 12
Arlington: 11
Baltimore: 10
Pittsburgh: 9
Cincinnati: 9
Chicago White Sox: 8
Philadelphia: 8
Toronto: 7
Anaheim: 6
Kansas City: 6
Miami: 6
Seattle: 6
San Diego: 5
Tampa Bay: 4
Oakland: 3
Atlanta: 2
The average number of players who meet this criteria on sub-.500 teams is 7.0 players.
There are a host of asterisks that could go along with this list: maybe you traded for a guy in A-ball and you developed him into a Major-Leaguer (see: Martes, Francis) and, as a result, he's not on this list. Maybe your team sucks, and the guys that have made this particular cut simply aren't very good, and that's why your team was 64-98 (cough, Mets/Tigers, cough). There are also issues with making this an annual exercise: the White Sox, Padres, and Braves are going to be good soon, but they won't show up as highly on this list because the building blocks they're using were acquired through trades. But I'll let the point stand. I guess.
*Riley Ferrell talked about getting notified of his Spring Training invitation while duck hunting:
About 3:30pm, birds [were] about to start coming in, [and] I was excited for that. I get this text message, and I'm like, 'I don't know who this is.' Looked at it, and I was like 'Oh, I got invited to big league camp. That's pretty cool.' No longer was I worried about birds.
*2016 4th Round pick Brett Adcock (117Ks in 107.2IP at Buies Creek last season) is ready for the season:
I obviously have things I need to fine-tune. If I didn't, I'd be in the big leagues right now. I'm just trying to make myself 1 percent better each day. If I can do that, hopefully I can end up in the right place.
*Josh Reddick, in all his Josh Reddickness (Reddickulousness?), talked about the ballistic missile scare in Hawaii:
I went back to my room (after it was clear that the alert was not real) and it was actually frustrating, because me and my girlfriend were going to visit with the Dolphins that morning. We got there on time. We got to play with the dolphins that morning. It was plenty of time. She wasn't even worried about dying; she was worried about seeing the dolphins. I said, 'Those dolphins can wait, we can see them tomorrow if we're still here.' Still had a great time.
*Rich Hill has chilled out about the 2017 World Series. In a sample poll of Rich Hill and myself, 50% of respondents have chilled out about the 2017 World Series.
*If you find yourself in Fresno on May 12 you can pick up this sweet Carlos Correa Starting Lineup figure.
*Eric Hosmer signed an 8yr/$144m deal (with an opt-out after five years) with the Padres.
*The Rangers have backed out of the deal to sign reliever Seung-Hawn Oh after concerns about his MRI. So here comes a bunch of editorials comparing them to the dastardly Astros and their treatment of Brady Aiken, yes?
*Chris Archer says the Rays could have the best rotation in MLB. And then they traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins, so who knows now?
*Fernando Abad, who signed a new deal with the Phillies for 2018:
2010-2012 w/HOU: 84.2IP, 5.10 ERA / 1.56 WHIP, 1.97 K:BB ratio.
2013-present: 233IP, 3.13 ERA / 1.21 WHIP, 2.58 K:BB ratio.
*The Haunting of Lindsey Jacobellis.
*From No Depression: A musician's life on social media.
*The Globe and Mail's Michael Harris: I Have Forgotten How To Read.
#Astros Joe Smith 2017 Pitch Quality— MLB Quality of Pitch (@qopbaseball) February 17, 2018
5.87 QOPA
Late Break (Top 1% MLB)
Horizontal Break (Top 1% MLB)
Location (Top 6% MLB) pic.twitter.com/DDMtkyltsl
Monday, November 20, 2017
What CoolStandings told us about the 2017 Astros
Every morning while I put the Hot Links together during the 2017 season, I would check FanGraphs' Playoff Odds page. Even back in April. I wouldn't always talk about it, because I didn't want to be the guy scoreboard watching in May. Once a week, usually on an off-day, I would post a run-down of where things stood, projection-wise. It's like getting on a scale, you're not really supposed to do it every day, so you don't overreact to things like water weight and normal ebbs and flows of...things that determine how much you weigh. But I do it anyway. Getting on the scale, and checking the Playoff Odds everyday. I'd check it against FiveThirtyEight and BaseballProspectus, and I'd scoff at the projection that didn't tell me what I wanted to know - that the Astros were locks to win the World Series. Go ahead, click that link above. You'll like what you see.
So how does it work? Reading the About section tells us this:
The FanGraphs Playoff Odds are an adaptation of the coolstandings.com playoff odds originally created by Greg Agami and Sean Walsh. To generate the playoff odds we simulate each season 10,000 times.
It's FanGraphs' tweaking of pythagorean theorem, recent results, depth charts, ZIPS projections, etc. It's updated every day in the middle of the night, so by the time I get to this part of the internet (usually around 5:30am), it's ready to release its fresh horrors.
So let's take a look, through the smug lens of hindsight, and see how the Playoff Odds reacted to the 2017 Astros' season. Here's how FanGraphs projected the season on the Eve of Opening Day:
AL West:
Houston: 90-72
Anaheim: 83-79
Seattle: 82-80
Arlington: 82-80
Oakland: 77-85
That's pretty much exactly how the AL West shook out. Anaheim actually won three fewer games, but I doubt the projections figured in how much time Mike Trout missed in 2017. The Rangers and Mariners tied, but with 78 wins, and the projections were off on Oakland by two wins. But that's pretty impressive.
Where else in the pre-season projections was FanGraphs remarkably wrong? They were -11 on the Astros. Who else either out- or under-performed by 10+ wins?
San Francisco's FG projection: 89-73
San Francisco's actual record: 64-98 (-25)
Detroit's FG projection: 82-80
Detroit's actual record: 64-98 (-18)
Mets' FG projection: 87-75
Mets' actual record: 70-92 (-17)
Arizona's FG projection: 77-85
Arizona's actual record: 93-69 (+16)
Milwaukee's FG projection: 70-92
Milwaukee's actual record: 86-76 (+16)
Yankees' FG projection: 79-83
Yankees' actual record: 91-71 (+12)
Houston's FG projection: 90-72
Houston's actual record: 101-61 (+11)
Toronto's FG projection: 86-76
Toronto's actual record: 76-86 (-10)
Minnesota's FG projection: 75-87
Minnesota's actual record: 85-77 (+10)
There are so many stories as to why the projections missed. Nine teams were off by 10 or more wins, four of them were in the National League, five in the AL. There were a group of teams that were within three wins of their pre-season projection. But injuries (cough BUMGARNER cough), regression, playing out of your mind for a month, etc. But let's just stop and note that, of the six divisions in MLB, FanGraphs' projection system got all six division winners correct.
So let's take a look at the Astros, specifically.
Pre-Season:
Making the playoffs: 78.4%
Winning the division: 60.1%
Winning the Pennant: 20.0%
Winning the World Series: 10.3%
The Astros obviously had a good team coming out of Spring Training, eschewing Chris Carter for Yuli Gurriel; jettisoning Colby Rasmus for Josh Reddick; wife-swapping Jason Castro for Brian McCann. They'd be good, we knew that. If you at least make the playoffs in 7840 out of 10,000 simulations, things look alright. Then you see what happens in October.
But after sweeping the Mariners to start the season, the Astros' odds of making the playoffs jumped to 85%. Thanks to going 10-3 from April 10-25, their odds jumped from 77.6% to 92.3%. On the morning of May 18 the Astros' playoff odds were 98%, having won 15 of 19 games.
May 29: Astros' postseason chances hit 99% for the first time. So after the most incredible win of the season, the Memorial Day Miracle, the Astros make the postseason 9,930 out of 10,000 times. Which, after that win, seems low.
June 2: Having won 10 of 11, the Astros' projection to win the division hits 99% for the first time. October is an inevitability.
July 3: The Astros are a 100% lock to make the ALDS. The Astros have a 15-game lead after taking two of three from the Yankees at home (Ed. note: I was at the one loss. With The Wife, Freakin' Pat, and Tyler.)
July 16: The Astros' odds of winning the ALDS and making it to the ALCS peaked. The Astros were 62-30, projected for 103.5 wins, after taking two of three from Minnesota at home after the All-Star Break.
The trade deadline came and went and were described as "a disappointment would be an understatement." The Astros woke up on August 1 and were 57.4% to win their ALDS, 28.7% to win the Pennant (the exact same as Cleveland), and 15.2% to win the World Series. They were projected to go 102-60.
A 3-10 stretch through August 14 had them at 58.2% to win their ALDS, 28.5% to win the Pennant, and 15.3% to win the World Series. They would finish the month 8-7, so the Astros' 11-17 August didn't affect them too heavily. The numbers knew who the Astros were, and could account for a 28-game stretch (17% of a season) where they didn't play to the level they had shown prior.
(Side note: Cleveland's 22-game win streak didn't do as much as you would think for their postseason success odds. The streak started on August 24, when their odds of winning an ALDS series was 50.5%, 27.5% to win the Pennant, and 15.5% to win the World Series. By the time it ended on September 14 it was 62.4% to win their ALDS, 32.3% to win the Pennant, and 19.6% to win the World Series. Maybe that's significant, I don't know. But when the simulations take recent results into account, a 22-game win streak - winning 13.6% of the season in a row - shifted things, but not dramatically. I guess the take away is that we overreact too much on a game-by-game basis. This is not exactly breaking news.)
September 2: The Astros introduced Justin Verlander at MMP and won both ends of a double-header against the Mets in their first game back at Minute Maid Park following Harvey, pushing their record to 82-53. They were already at 100.0% to win the division, 61.3% to win the ALDS (highest since their 62.4% on July 16), 32.9% to win the Pennant, and 19.8% to win the World Series.
September 4: Following the Astros' 5th-straight win they post their highest odds of winning the Pennant and the World Series at 35.8% and 22.0%, respectively. The following day Verlander would make his Astros debut and start a string of 10 straight Astros wins in games he starts.
October 2: The Astros woke up three days out from starting the ALDS against the Red Sox in the ALDS with simulations showing them beating the Red Sox by a narrow 52.2-47.8 margin, lowest it had been since May 25th's 50.7% chance of advancing to the ALCS. They were AL Pennant winners in 26.3% of the simulations, which had not been that low since May 11's 25.8% chance. Houston won the World Series in 15.1% of FanGraphs' simulations, the lowest it had been since August 16, after the Astros had lost eight of 13 August games.
But let's take stock of ten playoff teams' "chances" of winning each round of the playoffs, at the outset of each round:
Win ALDS (as of October 2, 2017):
Cleveland: 64.0%
Houston: 52.2%
Boston: 47.8%
New York: 25.6%
Minnesota: 10.3%
Obviously FanGraphs favored Cleveland to win the ALDS over either New York or Minnesota (whoops). Houston was a narrow favorite over Boston, likely due to facing Chris Sale twice and Craig Kimbrel however many times it was necessary.
Win NLDS (as of October 2):
Los Angeles: 65.8%
Washington: 50.4%
Chicago: 49.6%
Arizona: 19.0%
Colorado: 15.2%
Arizona and Colorado were the Wild Card teams, so they had a steeper hill to climb. But the Dodgers are the clear favorites here.
Win ALDS (as of October 5):
Cleveland: 59.2%
Houston: 52.7%
Boston: 47.3%
New York: 40.8%
I think everyone in the world thought it would be a Houston/Cleveland ALCS, but the simulations said Cleveland would easily handle the Yankees.
WIN ALCS (as of October 12):
Houston: 59.3%
New York: 40.7%
Houston was the clear favorite, but obviously FanGraphs didn't plan on the Astros dropping all three in New York.
WIN NLCS (as of October 13):
Los Angeles: 53.8%
Chicago: 46.2%
Interesting to see this series as narrow as it was projected, given that the Dodgers handled the Cubs easily while the Astros actively tried to take years off our lives in the ALCS.
WIN World Series (as of October 22, after both pennants had been won):
Houston: 52.6%
Los Angeles: 47.4%
That said, after Clayton Kershaw won Game 1 - a game nobody really thought he was going to lose - the simulations shifted to 62.5-37.5 in favor of the Dodgers. After dominating Game 1, the Dodgers won four of the next six games (three of them at home) in 6250 of 10000 simulations.
So, after Game 2 (tied 1-1):
Houston: 51.6%
Los Angeles: 48.4%
When the Astros took Game 2 in LA, it essentially made the series a best-of-five with home-field advantage. The simulations shifted slightly in Houston's favor.
After Game 3 (2-1 Houston):
Houston: 70.8%
Los Angeles: 29.2%
I guess that Game 3 was crucial.
After Game 4 (Tied 2-2):
Houston: 53.7%
Los Angeles: 46.3%
The bullpen's blown save gave the Dodgers about 1700 extra series simulation wins, needing to win two home games to take the World Series.
After Game 5 (3-2 Houston):
Houston: 79.0%
Los Angeles: 21.0%
Biggest swing of the series, naturally. The simulations figured Verlander and Keuchel could get one win in Los Angeles.
After Game 6 (Tied 3-3)
Houston: 53.2%
Los Angeles: 46.8%
Maybe it was Keuchel vs. Darvish, but I was surprised that the Astros were favored in this game. The only time - again, in the simulations - throughout the World Series that the Astros didn't win the World Series in the majority of simulations was after Game 1.
This certainly does not mean that you should check CoolStandings next March and roll out to Vegas and bet everything on CoolStandings being right. I mean, go back and check the Indians' chances in the simulations at getting through the ALDS. But still, things turned out generally how they were simulated.
So how does it work? Reading the About section tells us this:
The FanGraphs Playoff Odds are an adaptation of the coolstandings.com playoff odds originally created by Greg Agami and Sean Walsh. To generate the playoff odds we simulate each season 10,000 times.
It's FanGraphs' tweaking of pythagorean theorem, recent results, depth charts, ZIPS projections, etc. It's updated every day in the middle of the night, so by the time I get to this part of the internet (usually around 5:30am), it's ready to release its fresh horrors.
So let's take a look, through the smug lens of hindsight, and see how the Playoff Odds reacted to the 2017 Astros' season. Here's how FanGraphs projected the season on the Eve of Opening Day:
AL West:
Houston: 90-72
Anaheim: 83-79
Seattle: 82-80
Arlington: 82-80
Oakland: 77-85
That's pretty much exactly how the AL West shook out. Anaheim actually won three fewer games, but I doubt the projections figured in how much time Mike Trout missed in 2017. The Rangers and Mariners tied, but with 78 wins, and the projections were off on Oakland by two wins. But that's pretty impressive.
Where else in the pre-season projections was FanGraphs remarkably wrong? They were -11 on the Astros. Who else either out- or under-performed by 10+ wins?
San Francisco's FG projection: 89-73
San Francisco's actual record: 64-98 (-25)
Detroit's FG projection: 82-80
Detroit's actual record: 64-98 (-18)
Mets' FG projection: 87-75
Mets' actual record: 70-92 (-17)
Arizona's FG projection: 77-85
Arizona's actual record: 93-69 (+16)
Milwaukee's FG projection: 70-92
Milwaukee's actual record: 86-76 (+16)
Yankees' FG projection: 79-83
Yankees' actual record: 91-71 (+12)
Houston's FG projection: 90-72
Houston's actual record: 101-61 (+11)
Toronto's FG projection: 86-76
Toronto's actual record: 76-86 (-10)
Minnesota's FG projection: 75-87
Minnesota's actual record: 85-77 (+10)
There are so many stories as to why the projections missed. Nine teams were off by 10 or more wins, four of them were in the National League, five in the AL. There were a group of teams that were within three wins of their pre-season projection. But injuries (cough BUMGARNER cough), regression, playing out of your mind for a month, etc. But let's just stop and note that, of the six divisions in MLB, FanGraphs' projection system got all six division winners correct.
So let's take a look at the Astros, specifically.
Pre-Season:
Making the playoffs: 78.4%
Winning the division: 60.1%
Winning the Pennant: 20.0%
Winning the World Series: 10.3%
The Astros obviously had a good team coming out of Spring Training, eschewing Chris Carter for Yuli Gurriel; jettisoning Colby Rasmus for Josh Reddick; wife-swapping Jason Castro for Brian McCann. They'd be good, we knew that. If you at least make the playoffs in 7840 out of 10,000 simulations, things look alright. Then you see what happens in October.
But after sweeping the Mariners to start the season, the Astros' odds of making the playoffs jumped to 85%. Thanks to going 10-3 from April 10-25, their odds jumped from 77.6% to 92.3%. On the morning of May 18 the Astros' playoff odds were 98%, having won 15 of 19 games.
May 29: Astros' postseason chances hit 99% for the first time. So after the most incredible win of the season, the Memorial Day Miracle, the Astros make the postseason 9,930 out of 10,000 times. Which, after that win, seems low.
June 2: Having won 10 of 11, the Astros' projection to win the division hits 99% for the first time. October is an inevitability.
July 3: The Astros are a 100% lock to make the ALDS. The Astros have a 15-game lead after taking two of three from the Yankees at home (Ed. note: I was at the one loss. With The Wife, Freakin' Pat, and Tyler.)
July 16: The Astros' odds of winning the ALDS and making it to the ALCS peaked. The Astros were 62-30, projected for 103.5 wins, after taking two of three from Minnesota at home after the All-Star Break.
The trade deadline came and went and were described as "a disappointment would be an understatement." The Astros woke up on August 1 and were 57.4% to win their ALDS, 28.7% to win the Pennant (the exact same as Cleveland), and 15.2% to win the World Series. They were projected to go 102-60.
A 3-10 stretch through August 14 had them at 58.2% to win their ALDS, 28.5% to win the Pennant, and 15.3% to win the World Series. They would finish the month 8-7, so the Astros' 11-17 August didn't affect them too heavily. The numbers knew who the Astros were, and could account for a 28-game stretch (17% of a season) where they didn't play to the level they had shown prior.
(Side note: Cleveland's 22-game win streak didn't do as much as you would think for their postseason success odds. The streak started on August 24, when their odds of winning an ALDS series was 50.5%, 27.5% to win the Pennant, and 15.5% to win the World Series. By the time it ended on September 14 it was 62.4% to win their ALDS, 32.3% to win the Pennant, and 19.6% to win the World Series. Maybe that's significant, I don't know. But when the simulations take recent results into account, a 22-game win streak - winning 13.6% of the season in a row - shifted things, but not dramatically. I guess the take away is that we overreact too much on a game-by-game basis. This is not exactly breaking news.)
September 2: The Astros introduced Justin Verlander at MMP and won both ends of a double-header against the Mets in their first game back at Minute Maid Park following Harvey, pushing their record to 82-53. They were already at 100.0% to win the division, 61.3% to win the ALDS (highest since their 62.4% on July 16), 32.9% to win the Pennant, and 19.8% to win the World Series.
September 4: Following the Astros' 5th-straight win they post their highest odds of winning the Pennant and the World Series at 35.8% and 22.0%, respectively. The following day Verlander would make his Astros debut and start a string of 10 straight Astros wins in games he starts.
October 2: The Astros woke up three days out from starting the ALDS against the Red Sox in the ALDS with simulations showing them beating the Red Sox by a narrow 52.2-47.8 margin, lowest it had been since May 25th's 50.7% chance of advancing to the ALCS. They were AL Pennant winners in 26.3% of the simulations, which had not been that low since May 11's 25.8% chance. Houston won the World Series in 15.1% of FanGraphs' simulations, the lowest it had been since August 16, after the Astros had lost eight of 13 August games.
But let's take stock of ten playoff teams' "chances" of winning each round of the playoffs, at the outset of each round:
Win ALDS (as of October 2, 2017):
Cleveland: 64.0%
Houston: 52.2%
Boston: 47.8%
New York: 25.6%
Minnesota: 10.3%
Obviously FanGraphs favored Cleveland to win the ALDS over either New York or Minnesota (whoops). Houston was a narrow favorite over Boston, likely due to facing Chris Sale twice and Craig Kimbrel however many times it was necessary.
Win NLDS (as of October 2):
Los Angeles: 65.8%
Washington: 50.4%
Chicago: 49.6%
Arizona: 19.0%
Colorado: 15.2%
Arizona and Colorado were the Wild Card teams, so they had a steeper hill to climb. But the Dodgers are the clear favorites here.
Win ALDS (as of October 5):
Cleveland: 59.2%
Houston: 52.7%
Boston: 47.3%
New York: 40.8%
I think everyone in the world thought it would be a Houston/Cleveland ALCS, but the simulations said Cleveland would easily handle the Yankees.
WIN ALCS (as of October 12):
Houston: 59.3%
New York: 40.7%
Houston was the clear favorite, but obviously FanGraphs didn't plan on the Astros dropping all three in New York.
WIN NLCS (as of October 13):
Los Angeles: 53.8%
Chicago: 46.2%
Interesting to see this series as narrow as it was projected, given that the Dodgers handled the Cubs easily while the Astros actively tried to take years off our lives in the ALCS.
WIN World Series (as of October 22, after both pennants had been won):
Houston: 52.6%
Los Angeles: 47.4%
That said, after Clayton Kershaw won Game 1 - a game nobody really thought he was going to lose - the simulations shifted to 62.5-37.5 in favor of the Dodgers. After dominating Game 1, the Dodgers won four of the next six games (three of them at home) in 6250 of 10000 simulations.
So, after Game 2 (tied 1-1):
Houston: 51.6%
Los Angeles: 48.4%
When the Astros took Game 2 in LA, it essentially made the series a best-of-five with home-field advantage. The simulations shifted slightly in Houston's favor.
After Game 3 (2-1 Houston):
Houston: 70.8%
Los Angeles: 29.2%
I guess that Game 3 was crucial.
After Game 4 (Tied 2-2):
Houston: 53.7%
Los Angeles: 46.3%
The bullpen's blown save gave the Dodgers about 1700 extra series simulation wins, needing to win two home games to take the World Series.
After Game 5 (3-2 Houston):
Houston: 79.0%
Los Angeles: 21.0%
Biggest swing of the series, naturally. The simulations figured Verlander and Keuchel could get one win in Los Angeles.
After Game 6 (Tied 3-3)
Houston: 53.2%
Los Angeles: 46.8%
Maybe it was Keuchel vs. Darvish, but I was surprised that the Astros were favored in this game. The only time - again, in the simulations - throughout the World Series that the Astros didn't win the World Series in the majority of simulations was after Game 1.
This certainly does not mean that you should check CoolStandings next March and roll out to Vegas and bet everything on CoolStandings being right. I mean, go back and check the Indians' chances in the simulations at getting through the ALDS. But still, things turned out generally how they were simulated.
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