I took a day off - not from work, but from this and from Social Media and hooboy was that fun! Couldn't figure out why I was in such a good mood. We should all try it sometime! So, let's catch up a little bit...
Without giving any specifics, the 30-year old Altuve said he put in a lot of work in the offseason to better himself both physically and mentally. Brantley picked up on it right away during a long talk with Altuve on the first day of camp.
Altuve, 1243 games (5,458 PAs) from 2010-2019: .315/.364/.463, 8.76 PAs/K.
Altuve, 48 games (210 PAs) in 2020: .219/.286/.344, 5.38 PAs/K.
Yeah, I'm not putting much stock in Altuve's 2020 after the 2019 offseason, starting Spring Training, stopping Spring Training, and the season beginning in late July.
Chandler Rome: Altuve is pursuing a season of redemption. Gurriel:
Usually the first couple days are a little more relaxed, but right from the first time I saw (Altuve), he's looked super, super focused. There's a different look about him.
It's something that was here last year, and then he tweaked it while he was working out this winter. You know how hard the guy works. We may have to monitor his work for his own sake, because this guy works. His hamstring is sore. Again. We've just got to take care of him.
Bregman tweeted at McTaggart that, if the season started today he'd be "good to go."
-James Click said the plan all along was to wait until Correa came to Spring Training before opening dialogue (oh, I'm an "opening dialogue" guy now. I'm also a "circle-back" guy, occasionally. From time to time I "reach out.") on a possible contract extension. Click:
It's a high priority. We're going to get to it. But we want to make sure that we put in the work before we really dig in, but we have talked about what is most important to him and that will give us some direction on how we can try to line this up.
My concern is that Click is going to try to Tampa this thing right up:
With a guy as talented as he is, it would be prudent for us to try to line that up, but it takes both sides.
Also:
-Stephen Souza has a real chance to make the Astros' Opening Day Roster.
*Yuli Gurriel attributed his sluggish "2nd-half" and postseason to the mental strain of free agency, and his weight (even though he signed his extension in early September). But he's in better shape now!
So yeah, I guess we're back, here. Pro-tip as freezing rain and other cold precipitation whatnots come into the majority of Texas: pull your windshield wipers away from your car, and they won't freeze to your windshield.
*FanGraphs posted their first 2021 Playoff Odds of the season! In there we see:
Houston, at 89-73, favored to win the AL West by about five games, 70.9% to make the postseason, 60.6% to win the division, 15.6% to win the AL Pennant, 7.1% to win the World Series.
Some big player development successes and aggressive moves on the international free agent from give the Astros some long-term potential, and their 2020 draft leaned back toward upside and away from low-ceiling performers.
To be sure, this is not a late-2000s farm system, once you consider the mainstays on the roster include Alex Bregman (26 years old), Lance McCullers (26), Carlos Correa (25), Jose Urquidy (25), Cristian Javier (23), Yordan Alvarez (23), Kyle Tucker (23), and the Ghost of Forrest Whitley (22).
*This run of exhibition games at Choad Life Park saw an empty stadium last night, as though "taking a day off" is something that happens in baseball in 2020. It's 1-1 and the off-season barnstorming tour continues tonight.
*Brent Strom talked to Mark Berman about coming back in 2021, Correa, and Dusty, and the stable of pitchers the Astros have. It's a really good interview.
*Took a little longer than I expected, but there's a response to Luhnow's Monday Night Interview. The Athletic's Evan Drellich:
People with knowledge of the investigation said that 'there was direct testimony that Luhnow was aware of the sign-stealing scheme.' The league's department of investigations, headed by former federal prosecutors, gathered a combination of direct evidence, circumstantial evidence and testimony that a source said would hold up in a legal forum, despite Luhnow's suggestion to the contrary. 'Luhnow received emails that put him on notice of the activity, but claims he only read parts of the emails even though he responded to the emails,' the person said. 'One witness clearly stated and provided evidence that Luhnow know, and others identified facts indicating that Luhnow knew. The best interpretation of the evidence is that Luhnow either knew exactly what the video room was doing, or knew generally what they were doing and willfully chose to keep himself in the dark.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that you could find someone in MLB's New York office who has committed themselves to burying Luhnow and the Astros at every opportunity. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that the Astros did something wrong and answered MLB's questions far more whole-heartedly than any other team had/has answered them, and they have paid more dearly than any of them. [Ed. Note: I have downloaded Ben Reiter's podcast The Edge, but have not yet listened to it, something I plan on remedying today. Ben Reiter wrote Astroball, so there's reason to believe that what he has to say is worthwhile.]
Whether he exactly knew what was going on or not is really beside the point. I wrote to all the GMs. I put them on notice that it was their obligation to make sure that their organizations were not violating any of the sign-stealing rules...He damaged the game, and as a result, he was disciplined.
This is utterly exhausting. And I'm just a fan. It's a fair question to ask, Why did the Red Sox do the Apple Watch stuff AND the video room stuff and only the film room guy get re-assigned for a year, while the Astros got the worst penalty in sports since SMU? Because MLB likes to do their killin' before breakfast, they're keeping a not-small amount of the findings of their investigation private. Other teams saw what happened to the Astros and shut the hell up. I've just sort of come to terms with the idea that this is/was a league-wide problem, and Manfred decided to let everyone think that it was an Astros-only problem (in the same way that the Mitchell Report scapegoated teams on the coasts). The noisiest opponents have been the Yankees, Dodgers, and Indians, for what it's worth.
And in the end the Astros lost their last game of the season, something that has happened in 58 of their 59 seasons. Despite out-hitting Tampa 59-44, Houston lost a seven-game series getting outscored by a total of three runs. The Rays simply took advantage of more mistakes than the Astros. That said, coming back from an 0-3 deficit to force a Game 7 for a 3rd Pennant in four years, in a "season" in which you got six innings from Justin Verlander, nine PAs from Yordan Alvarez, 4.1IP from Roberto Osuna, is extremely impressive. I'm mad as hell, but I appreciate what this team did since the end of July. Super-appreciative of the ride they gave us, but I'm going to need some space from this team.
The legacy of this group is that these guys are ballpayers. These guys are men; they have been through a whole bunch other than on the ballfield. Now these guys can forget the problems they had that it out there and come together as a group and be forever friends.
This is painful when you're one game away from going to the World Series. I'm proud of these guys, because nobody expected us to even be in the position or even to be here....One thing's for sure: We'll be back in this position again next year.
*MLB: Anatomy of the Astros' comeback, and near-miss.
*Houston, as a team, was 11x46 with runners in scoring position. The 2020 ALCS, w/RISP:
Saturday's loss lived as a microcosm of Houston's 73-game run, one riddled with ineffectiveness, injury and invective from the outside following the sign-stealing scandal. The lineup disappeared, as it so often did during a 29-31 regular season. A clutch hit never came.
*Carlos Correa drove in the only two runs of Game 7. He hit .362/.455/.766 in the 2020 Postseason, with 17 RBI. Correa:
We didn't fold. We kept battling. We got to the playoffs and no one gave us a chance in Minnesota. We won three games against Oakland. They beat us in the regular season and we came up huge and won that series. Down, 0-3, everybody was talking about the Astros getting swept and this and that. We came back and forced Game 7. It wasn't the finale we wanted, but I'm just proud of this team, man. It's been unbelievable.
*I have no idea, and will never understand, why the Astros continued to challenge Randy Arozarena. Arozarena hit a 2-run home run.
Arozarena: .321/.367/.786 in the ALCS
Ji-Man Choi: .385/.529/.615 in the ALCS
Nobody else in that lineup had an average over .278. Six of the Rays' Game 7 lineup had an ALCS average under .167. Sixteen of the 25 runs the Rays scored - yes, they only scored 25 runs in seven games - came on home runs. Kevin Cash:
We are lucky to have Charlie Morton. For a group that doesn't have a wealth of experience in these roles, Charlie does. He has been there, done that. It lined up really, really well for us.
*Charlie Morton in Game 7s, career: 14.2IP, 6H/1ER, 15K:3BB. Beginning with the 2017 ALCS Game 7, Morton has recorded seven straight Wins in the postseason.
It sucks, man. It really does. But congrats to the Rays. They're a damn good team. They've been the best team in the AL all season. They went through the Yankees and they went through us. You have to tip your cap to them, as well. It sucks because it just feels like we were right there.
We got down 3-0 and we fought and we showed the kind of team and kind of grit that makes up this team. We weren't on a revenge tour. That's not what this was. This was a bunch of guys that came together, wanted to play damn good baseball and win a World Series. And we fell short of our goal.
*Bregman, 2020 Postseason: .220/.316/.300. After recording three straight two-hit games from ALDS Game 3-ALCS Game 1, Bregman went .083/.154/.083 in 26 PAs. And we still don't know why Bregman was pulled late in Game 7.
Bregman, 2020 until the hamstring injury: .272/.374/.500, 13 extra-base hits, 15K:14BB.
Bregman, 2020 after the hamstring injury: .187 (I'm bad at calculating OBP and SLG)
I'm extremely proud of this team for fighting every single day, battling every pitch and going out there and playing hard and playing for one another. But like I said before, our goal is always to win the last game of the season, so it's time to work extremely hard in the offseason and get better.
*Gurriel, 2020 Postseason: .114/.245/.114.
*Jayson Stark: The Weird and the Wild of ALCS Game 7.
*Of course now the focus of the front office turns to free agency. Is this the end of the Astros era? George Springer, Michael Brantley, and Josh Reddick are all free agents once the World Series ends. Correa, on Springer:
Some guys that we love very much and we've been playing with forever, and hopefully they come back, but if they don't, we're going to miss them for sure. We've got George Springer. He's been my teammate since I got to the big leagues and been a great leader and role model.
Springer:
I haven't really thought about that yet. Our season just ended. I'm more focused on kind of what's happening now, what happened tonight, and I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.
*Jerome Solomon: There is plenty for the Astros to look forward to.
*Jake Kaplan: All the looming off-season questions for the Astros.
*Now, I guess we just wait. Read for pleasure. Go to bed early. Drink some herbal tea. Hot Links will continue throughout the off-season with or without Astros news. Thank you for reading along.
Houston lost 4-2 after one of the dumbest things you'll see in the 1st Inning, and then continued their extraordinary ability to not get the Big Hit. The Astros are down 0-2 in the Best-of-Seven series. Game 3 is tonight. Teams that win the first two games of a Best-of-Seven series win that series 85% of the time, and no one has done it since the 2004 Red Sox.
The Astros were 1x8 w/RISP, a day after going 2x8, leaving eleven men on base and 21 LOBsters in two games. George Springer was 0x3 w/RISP. Bregman and Tucker were each 0x2 with runners in scoring position. Houston got ten hits - eight of them were singles. Houston had five balls hit with an expected batting average over .500 that resulted in outs. The Astros were 10x36 (.278) with an expected batting average of .357 - meaning the Astros reasonably could have expected three more hits than they got. Of the 25 hardest-hit balls by the Astros this series, nine have been hits. The Rays had an xBA in Game 2 of .167.
I don't think the guys in the clubhouse feel this series is over. We've just got to come out and get one tomorrow.
*Jose Altuve - who had committed four errors all season - made two in three innings, including a back-breaking one in the 1st that directly led to Manuel Margot's 3-run home run. Altuve hadn't made two errors in a playoff game before. Dusty:
That's his first throwing error all year, and then he had two of them today. You're just hoping he isn't getting the yips...I just told him to flush it. I mean, this guy's been awesome for us. He's got to flush it and move on, or else it multiplies...There's not a whole bunch to say. [Tampa] got away two days in a row, but they can't keep getting away.
Correa:
We haven't lost the series. We have to stay positive. We have to move forward and play better baseball in order to win the series. The error already happened. Nothing that can be done about that. No need to go back to it. Now we look forward and we have to go back tomorrow and win that game.
We were down 0-2 in the World Series last year with Urquidy and Greinke coming up next to pitch for us. It's not like we haven't been here before. We got to attack it like we did last year.
*Lance McCullers was great: 7IP, 4H/4R (1ER), 11K:0BB. He's the 8th pitcher in MLB postseason history to throw 7IP, allow four or fewer hits, strike out 11 or more batters, allow 0-1 ER, and lose the game. That's the ineptitude of this Astros offense so far. His 11Ks were the most since July 6, 2018 and it's just the fourth time he has struck out 11+ batters in a start. Dusty:
It's very frustrating, especially Lance - he pitched his butt off. He was better than Charlie Morton or any of those guys over there. Nothing to show for it. He was on his A-game today.
Correa:
I texted [Lance] after the game. I said, 'Great performance. Sorry we couldn't come through for you.' That's the kind of game that you've got to win when your pitcher gives you a performance like that.
*The Rays have won three straight postseason games with 13+ strikeouts. They're the first team with 13+ strikeouts in two postseason wins in the same series since the 1997 Cleveland Indians in ALCS Game 3 and Game 6, and the first two do it consecutive games of a series.
*Carlos Correa hit his 5th home run of the postseason, trailing only San Francisco's Rich Aurilia in 2002, who hit six, for most home runs in a single postseason by a shortstop.
*Alex Bregman was 0x5, hitting every single ball off the bat hard, with exit velocities of 106.8, 99.5, 103.0, 103.1, and 98.4. The xBA on those were .670, .330, .380, .330, and .430. It's the 3rd postseason game in which he has had five PAs and not gotten on base.
*Yuli Gurriel was 2x3 with a run scored, his first 2-hit game since September 12 - a month to the day. It's his first 2-hit postseason game since 2019 World Series Game 7.
Welcome to the 2019 World Series. The Astros got nine hits, four walks, two hits with runners in scoring position that somehow didn't score any runs, lined their way into outs while the Rays hit shots off the end of their bat that found a hole, left ten men on base, struck out 13 Rays, and lost 2-1. Baseball is a faithless whore. It's Charlie Morton vs. Lance McCullers at 3:07pm today and I'm sure the announcers will focus on Charlie Morton's presence on the 2017 World Series team and all the [waves hands] you know.
Ultimately the Astros had Snell on the ropes (105 pitches in 5IP?) and couldn't get more than Altuve's home run. Tampa has enough Actual Wizards in their bullpen - all flowing hair and weird beards and capes - that they can't let those opportunities go to waste like that. Not that anyone needed this type of #analysis.
George Springer's lineout in the 1st had an expected batting average (xBA) of .700. Kyle Tucker's liner that resulted in a double play in the 4th Inning had an expected batting average of .790. Michael Brantley's groundout in the 5th had an xBA of .540. George Springer's groundout in the 7th had an xBA of .510. Those are the four highest xBAs of the night that didn't actually result in a hit. Extremely 2019 World Series vibes. Chandler Rome noted that, of the 12 balls the Astros hit harder than 93mph off the bat, only five fell for hits. Dusty:
It's disappointing. We hit some balls good. Opportunity's the name of the game. If you keep getting opportunities, sooner or later you're going to come through. If you don't get an opportunity, you don't have a chance. We had a heck of a chance tonight, and they just got away.
Bregman:
We were hitting the ball hard, hitting line drives. We didn't punch out a lot. I thought the at-bats were awesome. We just didn't get that big hit tonight. That's baseball. If we keep putting up those good at-bats, I like our chances.
The Astros allowed two runs and struck out 13 batters, and lost. The only time that's happened in a Houston postseason game prior to last night was Game 5 of the 1986 NLCS ew no stop typing now. Houston is 6-2 in the postseason under that extremely specific criteria.
*Richard Justice, on the key plays that all somehow went the Rays way.
*Framber was great: 6IP, 4H/2ER, 8K:4BB. He joins Gerrit Cole, Randy Johnson, Dallas Keuchel, Nolan Ryan, and Justin Verlander as the only Astros pitchers in franchise postseason history to throw 6IP, 4H/2ER, with 8K. And, true to Astros fashion, Houston is 6-4 when they get starts like that. Framber:
I feel like this year I've had a chance to really demonstrate the pitcher that I am and that I always have been. I had, in the past, where things could get away from me a little bit in the middle of the game, but I've made adjustments to my game this year...For me, I just feel blessed to have the success that I've had this year.
*Jose Altuve put the Astros on the board in the 1st Inning with a solo shot off Blake Snell that proved to be the only Astros run of the game. It's his 16th postseason home run (four behind Yeah Jeets for the most in MLB postseason history by a middle infielder and six more than Chase Utley for the all-time postseason home run mark by a 2B), and he has now hit a home run in three straight postseason games. Petco Park is the 22nd park in which Altuve has hit a home run. All-time multi-hit postseason games:
*In the regular season, the Astros hit .212/.447/.338 with a full count. With a full count in Game 1:
Springer: 0x2
Altuve: 0x1
Brantley: 0x1
Bregman: 2x2
Correa: 0x0, 2BB
Gurriel, 0x0, BB
*Gurriel: When Yuli Gurriel came up with the bases loaded in the 8th and one out, Tampa's win expectancy was just 51.9%. One pitch later it was 86.7%. From when he started with the Astros through the 2020 Wild Card Series, Gurriel had GIDPd once in 194 postseason PAs. He's done it twice in his last 18 postseason PAs now.
*Mike Zunino had swung the bat five times on the first pitch in the 2020 regular season. He had hit .125/.250/.375 with two outs in the regular season. He had hit .158 with runners in scoring position all year. He had two hits with runners in scoring position and two outs all year long. I hate this game. Game 1, yes. But also, baseball.
*Aledmys Diaz's AB in the 5th was Extremely Stupid. John Curtiss had thrown 17 pitches before facing Diaz with runners on 1st and 3rd. Ten of them - including six of the previous seven pitches - were balls. Yet Diaz shot the ball into the ground on the 1st pitch Curtiss threw to ground out and end the inning.
*FanGraphs: With super-subs and unlikely stars, the Rays take Game 1. Jon Tayler:
With this bullpen and modular lineup - and having to face Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton - there are many ways to lose to the Rays and few to beat them. Score early and they'll scratch you to death, bit by bit, as their hitters grind away and seemingly always have the platoon advantage. Fail to score early and you'll be facing the best bullpen in baseball and a team that hasn't lost a single game this year in which it's held a lead after the seventh inning. And even if it all goes right, watch as the likes of Mike Zunino and his 65 wRC+ this season drives in the go-ahead run with a single off your best starter.
*Pedro Gomez: Where did Randy Arozarena come from? Dude takes a knee every AB (from swinging out of his shoes) and nobody gets mad at him.
*CC Sabathia, on the Yankees' ALDS decisions: "What the f--k?"
*Wired: How to block bad websites - or just get things done.
*Check out this bullcrap: The English Football League (everything below the Premier League) have a plan to overhaul English soccer by placing control in the hands of the top Premier League teams. Of course Manchester United (owned by the Glazer family) and Liverpool (owned by the Bastard John Henry) love it.
*The Economist: The Secret Life of a Private Tutor to the Wealthy...which immediately led me to this.
Well I hope you enjoyed the Foot Ball. The Sooners sort of Boomer'd - sorry Texsa Fan. So yesterday was a Saturday where there was no playoff baseball, no Premier League, and only COVIDball. What a terrible time to be alive. 1st Pitch is at 6:37pm Central on TBS. Some notes in advance of Game 1:
*All-Time on October 11, the Astros are 2-3 (but are 2-0 since starting 0-3!)
All-Time franchise LCS Game 1 record: 2-3
*The Game 1 SPs will be Framber Valdez vs. Blake Snell, Game 2 will be Lance McCullers vs. TBA. That's literally the plan. The Rays have changed the game so much that Ten Bloody Armadillos will each get a shot at the Astros' lineup, to maddening success.
Snell vs. Houston, regular season career: six starts, 2-2, 4.73 ERA / 1.49 WHIP, .264/.350/.512, 31K:16BB.
Snell vs. Houston, postseason career: three appearances (one start, two in relief all in the 2019 ALDS), 5.1IP, 1.69 ERA / 0.75 WHIP, 7K:0BB.
The Rays are 5-4 overall when Snell pitches against the Astros since 2016. FiveThirtyEight has it 53-47 Rays in Game 1. If you click that link you'll find that the Rays have a slight edge in every. single. game. Snell:
It's gonna be a battle for sure, because they don't give in at all. Once they get on you it's like blood in the water. They're a bunch of sharks...It's gonna be a fun little competition.
*Chandler Rome: Dusty Baker is sticking with Yuli Gurriel. Dusty:
Yuli's my first baseman. You're not going to find it on the bench. You're going to find it playing. I'm not a fair-weather coach.
After the double-header with Oakland on August 29, Gurriel was hitting .292/.348/.517 - a very respectable .865 OPS. He "hit" .154/.168/.209 to finish the regular season. Gurriel is 2x23 - both singles - this postseason, but 1K:1BB. He's making contact, just the wrong kind. Gurriel's BABIP in the postseason is .087. So I went back through StatCast to find just how many balls he hit with an expected batting average of over .400 with what actually happened from September 1 through the end of the regular season:
Number of balls hit with an xBA > .400 that resulted in an out: 16
Now, you can't say that every ball you hit with a 40% chance of getting on base will result in getting on base 100% of the time - I realize that. So if we say that maybe eight of those 16 balls should have been hits, that would raise his average from .154 to .242. Again, this is spitballing.
Number of balls hit in the 2020 Postseason with an xBA > .400 that resulted in an out:
Game 1 WC: 1 (.740 xBA)
Game 2 WC: 0
Game 1 ALDS: 1 (.470 xBA)
Game 2 ALDS: 0
Game 3 ALDS: 1 (.410 xBA)
Game 4 ALDS: 0
That's not terribly telling, but it does tell you that instead of being 2x23, maybe he should be 5x23, and .217 is way different than .087. And he's a great defensive 1B. And who else are you going to put over there? And the Cionel Perez robbed Yuli of a BP homer yesterday. Yuli going off tonight.
*Given that there are no off-days from Games 1-7, Dusty said he's probably going to add a pitcher to the roster. Those eligible pitchers are Brandon Bailey, Brandon Bielak, Humberto Castellanos, Chase De Jong, Shawn Dubin, Ralph Garza, Cionel Perez, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. None of them have ever pitched in the postseason before. Hell, only De Jong and Perez had pitched in the Majors before 2020.
On a scale of Zero to Weird, it's going to be Weird.
*Peter Gammons pointed out that in February fans in Port St. Lucie booed Michael Brantley, who was not on the 2017 team, and did not boo J.D. Davis and Jake Marisnick, who were. People are stupid. I mean, have you ever interacted with any of them? People, I mean. I try to avoid it.
The Houston MF Astros were down 3-0 thanks to Ramon Laureano before scoring 11 of the next 14 runs to take the ALDS against the Oakland Athletics. Houston is now 6-8 against Oakland in 2020 and they won't have a chance to even that season series up. Such a shame. Houston is now 34-32 on the season. The Astros averaged 2.5 runs in the regular season against Oakland, and then averaged 8.25 runs against them in the ALDS. The Astros will face the winner of the Yankees/Rays series in the ALCS, which begins on Sunday in San Diego on TBS. It's the only game that day, so the lights might actually need to be on, which would be a change. I might have to stay up past 9:30pm, and I'm not so sure how I feel about that.
Since the League Championship Series was introduced in 1969, five franchises have made it to the LCS at least four years in a row:
We just couldn't do enough on the pitching end to hold them down. And then you start to press a little bit, even though our guys had a good attitude every inning - even going into the ninth and getting some guys on. We battled to the end, as you would expect, but just not enough.
Since last winning the World Series in 1990, the A's are 2-12 in postseason series.
*The alphabetical 14-man pitching staff of the Oakland's ALDS roster, with innings pitched/pitches thrown in this particular series:
Chris Bassitt: 4.0IP, 73 pitches
Jake Diekman: 3.0IP, 53 pitches
Mike Fiers: 0.0IP, 0 pitches
Liam Hendriks: 3.0IP, 37 pitches
Jesus Luzardo: 4.1IP, 73 pitches
Sean Manaea: 4.1IP, 65 pitches
T.J. McFarland: 2.0IP, 32 pitches
Mike Minor: 3.2IP, 52 pitches
Frankie Montas: 3.2IP, 71 pitches
Yusmeiro Petit: 2.0IP, 26 pitches
Joakim Soria: 2.0IP, 36 pitches
Lou Trivino: 2.0IP, 31 pitches
Jordan Weems: 0.0IP, 12 pitches
J.B. Wendelken: 1.0IP, 34 pitches
Mike Fiers is the No Pitches All Bitches winner of the ALDS.
For us, it doesn't really matter who we play obviously. As a vindictive kind of thing, we want to take out the Astros, but I don't care who we play as long as we beat them - that's our biggest goal.
I'll say this for the A's: that's a good team with a lot of good, young players, and a good front office. The next few years are really going to draw out this little brewing rivalry with the Astros.
*2020 ALDS Game 4 was the first game the Astros won as the home team since 2019 ALCS Game 6, a span of 12 games (H/T to my dude Steve for that one).
The Astros scored 33 runs in 35 innings and slashed .322/.388/.594 at Dodger Stadium - the site where they secured a World Series championship many now consider tainted. Correa, Altuve, Bregman and Springer - a foursome that went from celebrated to vilified with one investigation - batted a combined .419 with eight home runs.
Given that the run differential was Houston +13, this seems important.
*The top six in the lineup from Game 4 had a batting average of at least .368
*Michael Brantley: 3x5, 2HR, 3RBI. Michael Brantley had hit exactly one postseason home run prior to Game 4, 31 postseason games. He hit two. He had nine career postseason RsBI prior to Game 4 (and eight of those were with Houston), and he had three yesterday. You will have to wind your way through all the statues to get to your gate at Minute Maid Park within ten years. And Cleveland didn't want to pay him! Brantley:
I don't know if we made any certain statement, but I know we played great baseball, and that's the most important thing. We played a great team over there, and we played a competitive, clean series, and we got the win today.
This is a special team that has been here before. We have young guys that are leaning on the veterans and the veterans are taking care of them right now. No one guy has to carry this team when you have so many special players in the locker room like we do.
*Jose Altuve: 1x3, HR, 2BB, 2RBI. He had never had a line like that in a postseason game before.
*Carlos Correa: 3x4, HR, BB, 5RBI. It was Correa's 3rd 5RBI game of his MLB career. He has hit 4 home runs this postseason, with 12 RsBI. Correa now has 15 career postseason home runs, five behind JEETS for most all-time by a shortstop. Litos has 102 postseason games to hit five home runs to catch the Marlins' slimy owner and the one who sullied Lyla Garrity.
Correa's Game 4 was the 78th postseason instance of a player driving in five runs. It's the third time in franchise history an Astros player had 5RBI (Bregman 2019 World Series Game 4, Morgan Ensberg 2005 NLDS Game 1) Correa:
We're motivated because we want to win, we want to be able to bring another championship to the city of Houston. We know what it feels like, so we want to be able to have that feeling once again...We're one step closer.
I mean, this is just our normal offense. We didn't show this too much during the season, but this lineup can do this every night. We were doing that this series. This lineup, one through nine, can produce at any moment, and we were doing it this entire series.
*On the opposite end of the spectrum, Yuli Gurriel: 2x23, 1K:1BB in the 2020 postseason. Gurriel hasn't had an extra-base hit since he homered against the A's on September 9. That's...that's not sustainable.
*Zack Greinke: 4.2IP, 5H/4ER, 4K:1BB, 2HR. All earned runs and home runs were courtesy of Ramon Laureano. Greinke said his arm felt better in Game 4:
If it feels how it felt today then there will be no issues.
Greinke's first five starts (through August 18): 29.1IP, 22H/6ER, 25K:4BB (1.84 ERA / 0.99 WHIP)
Greinke since (August 23-Game 4): 46IP, 52H/29ER, 47K:9BB (5.67 ERA / 1.33 WHIP)
Did Greinke signal his pitch when Ramon Laureano launched a short-lived 3-run home run? Former Astros Great Ramon Laureano said he didn't pick it up, if he did.
*Dusty Baker is now 6-17 in series-clinching/elimination games as a manager. Dusty:
I'm glad for the city of Houston and (thankful to) Jim Crane for trusting me with the leadership of this team and I'm glad for the whole Astros organization and the players.
I've been a villain most of my life, you know what I mean? So I might as well join the rest of the group.
*Richard Justice: Five ways the Astros pulled off the near-impossible.
*Ramon Laureano did most of the damage to the Astros in Game 4, hitting two home runs for 4RBI. As a reminder, the Astros traded Laureano to Oakland in November 2017 for Brandon Bailey after deciding to protect Dean Deetz instead. As a reward, Dean Deetz almost got stabbed by Reymin Guduan and tested positive for a PED while Ramon Laureano has hit .270/.343/.475 for the A's in the regular season since he got called up in August 2018.
To be able to hand the ball to probably the best pitcher in the game, there is some comfort in that. I am excited to see him go compete, like he always does.
Wow. After the first six innings, I didn't expect that. The Astros beat the Twins in Game 1 4-1, and there was great rejoicing. FanGraphs gave the Twins a 57.6-42.4 edge in Game 1, and a 62.5-37.5 edge on the series. Well! Now it's 65.5-34.5 Astros (even though the Twins have the edge in the next two games? I don't understand FanGraphs' Hard Math.) It was the Astros' 10th road win of the season. What happened to the Twins in the 9th usually happens to the Astros. God bless us, everyone. The Astros face Jose Berrios today at 12pm Central on ESPN2. If there's a Thursday game, it'll be at 12:08pm Central.
*You could hear music during Dusty's post-game Zoom media availability. Dusty:
It is loud, should be loud. Hasn't been loud in a while. Let them party. Let them enjoy themselves. Savor the victory.
*There were a lot of "game-saving moments" but Alex Bregman's throw to first in the 1st Inning was a massive one. Brantley, on that throw:
When they challenged it I got really nervous. I thought initially he was out, but any time [you] go to replay, you got to hold your breath a little bit. It was a phenomenal play. Big momentum swing.
*Greinke, Inning by Inning:
1st: 30 pitches, 1H/0ER, 0K:2BB
2nd: 11 pitches, 0H/0ER, 0K:0BB
3rd: 22 pitches, 1H/1ER, 1K:1BB
4th: 16 pitches, 0H/0ER, 0K:0BB
Greinke had three walks in four innings. He had issued walks to three batters in his previous 33.2IP. The last time he struck out exactly one batter was August 23, 2019, also an Astros win. It was Greinke's fourth straight postseason start of allowing two or fewer earned runs.
Zack Greinke, 2nd time through the order: .283/.330/.404
Zack Greinke, 3rd time through the order: .298/.305/.491
Jake Kaplan: How the Framber Game came to pass. Kaplan:
[Dusty's] proactive decision to not let Zack Greinke face the Minnesota lineup a third time and hand the game over to the rubber arm of Framber Valdez exemplified the type of aggressive, creative bullpen management the Astros will need this postseason.
"Aggressive, creative bullpen management" and "Dusty Baker" have not often collided in the same sentence before...
He's been throwing the ball great all year. He's been attacking the strike one. He's got plus pitches across the board. I love hearing the opponents talk about how nasty he is. I'm glad he's on our side because I don't want to face him.
Shoutout to Framber, about to be A Dad for a second time. Give him, like, six months, and he's gonna have some Wilco on vinyl and get really into "Jesus, Etc."
Chandler Rome: Framber is the first relief pitcher to throw five scoreless innings in a playoff game since Madison Bumgarner in the 2014 World Series. Rocco Baldelli:
We weren't exactly expecting their lefty to go out there and throw all of those innings.
*The Astros allowed four hits. It's the 18th time in franchise postseason history that the Astros' opponent has been held to four or fewer hits. Ten of those games have been since the beginning of the 2015 postseason. The Astros are 14-4 in postseason games allowing four or fewer hits.
*Jose Altuve was 0x3 with 2BB and an RBI. It was his 4th 2BB postseason game, and his 30th postseason RBI.
Astros' Postseason RBI leaderboard:
Carlos Correa: 33
Jose Altuve: 30
George Springer: 29
Alex Bregman: 28
Lance Berkman: 26
Yuli Gurriel: 24
Morgan Ensberg: 18
Carlos Beltran: 15
Marwin Gonzalez: 13
Jeff Bagwell: 13
Craig Biggio: 11
*Michael Brantley got a massive 2RBI single in the 9th inning. It's the 2nd 2RBI postseason game of his career - the last coming in 2019 World Series Game 3.
*The Minnesota Twins' last postseason win was October 5, 2004. They're 0-17 in the postseason since. God bless those Lake Wobegon Twins fans.
*As cool as Nelson Cruz's story is, don't forget he was a Biogenesis guy who took - and got suspended 50 games for taking - PEDs because he said he had a GI infection. Oh, that was a few years ago and shouldn't be brought up again? Tell that to Karl Ravech and Eduardo Perez.
*Kenta Maeda threw 5IP and allowed 0ER. The last time he did that and his team lost was April 29, 2019.
*Pat and I are recording a special postseason postgame show for patrons of Lima Time Time. Last night's was originally going to be 20 minutes long where we just clapped for Greinke and Framber the whole time, and then it turned into dropping as many 90s Twins as we possibly could. It was impossibly fun, and for $5/month, you can get at least two more of these shows (though, I think it'll be more). Join our Patreon! It's literally the only monetary request I've made of you in the last 12 years, other than, like, helping people in a disaster.
*Before Game 1 the Astros announced that they have extended Yuli Gurriel for 2021 with a $6.5m deal, and a club option for 2022 for $8m. He'll get $250,000 for each of his 300th and 350th Plate Appearances in 2021, $350,000 for 400 and 450 PAs, $400,000 for 500 and 550 PAs.
*Freaking Joe Biagini got DFAd, and I'm quite fine with this. Among pitchers in franchise history with a minimum of 10IP, Joe Biagini's 10.42 ERA is the 5th-worst.
*Chas McCormick - owner of a .276/.360/.400 MiLB slash line - made the playoffs roster. Here's why.
*Wired: Your photos are irreplaceable, get them off your phone.
I did Monday's Hot Links on Sunday night, because I thought I might want to sleep later than my usual alarm of 4:30am. Why do I get up so early? It's not all Hot Links, though it does take a little bit of time in the mornings. I wake up, have a cup of coffee in the dark like a serial killer, meditate, read the Good Book, and I've been doing yoga since this persistent foot injury just sort of refuses to get back to normal (after almost three months). Anyway, I was awake at 3:45am because I had a dream my dog's leg fell off in the kitchen and when I jerked awake I thought, "Well that's it for sleeping tonight. Let's try again here in about 20 hours." There was absolutely no chance of me staying awake for last night's game. And I, and my blood pressure, was better for it
The Astros and Mariners met for the most important September series for Seattle in quite some years (I have zero interest in going back through Baseball-Reference to see just how long it's been since the Mariners have been four games out of a playoff spot in September). The Astros...crapped the bed, 6-1. Four of the Mariners' six runs were unearned, thanks to Altuve kicking a double play ball. The Astros were 1x8 w/RISP. It's eight straight games of scoring four or fewer runs, and 11 of their last 13. The loss also means that Oakland wins the 2020 AL West, not that it's any kind of surprise. Houston was 24-2 against Seattle in the last two seasons and are now 24-3.
What are you going to do, just going to give them the next two days? They have to earn the next game first. The Angels are knocking at the door behind them. We've just got to take care of our own business.
*Prior to last night's game, the Astros' playoff odds sat at 99.7%. This morning it's...99.1%. FanGraphs feels way better about it than I do, apparently. Though, Houston is three up with six to play.
*Jose Altuve had two hits and a walk. It's the 6th time Altuve has gotten on base three times in a game in 2020, and the first since August 25.
*Michael Brantley: 3x4, his 4th 3-hit game of the season.
*On September 7 Carlos Correa went 2x4 against Oakland and was slashing .301/.367/.441. Since then he's "hitting" .122/.178/.146, lowering his season line to .261/.325/.375.
*Lance McCullers didn't allow a hit until the 6th inning: 6.2IP, 3H/4R (0ER), 7K:2BB.
McCullers' last two starts: 13.2IP, 5H/0ER, 15K:2BB...and the Astros scored zero runs through all of that.
I was talking to the batting coaches tonight and they're not sleeping. They're trying to figure it out. I'm trying to help them figure it out.
Six of the Astros' nine hits were singles. Brantley:
We're all right. This is a professional team. A great team. We've been here before. We lost tonight. That's why you play the series. We'll come back tomorrow, hopefully even up the series and then win it.
It's been an unforgettable experience for me playing in Houston. Regardless of whatever happens in the offseason...the city will always be in my heart.
As much as he brings to the table, both on and off the field, the group we have right now was not really planning on it happening. There was a lot of noise out there on Twitter and a lot of noise in the media about this, and the fact we came to a tipping point didn't cause any alarm or cause any consternation or anything like that. I think we're ready to go with what we have, and I feel confident in them.
*Buzzfeed: The FinCEN Files offer "an unprecedented view of global financial corruption, the banks enabling it, and the government agencies that fail to stop it."
The Astros' eight-game win streak is over, following a 4-3 defeat at the hands of the Padres. Houston is 15-11, 3.5 games back of Oakland, who won, because, of course they did.
*Lance McCullers: 5IP, 7H/4ER, 2K:2BB.
The Bullpen: 3IP, 2H/0ER, 3K:3BB.
Houston pitchers have walked 115 batters through the first 26 games - that number, and I know that there are teams who are basically a barnstorming leper colony and haven't played in days, is the highest number of walks in baseball. The 2019 Astros walked their 115th batter of the season in the 45th game.
*Jose Altuve was 2x4 with a walk, giving him three straight two-hit games, and raising his batting average to .202 for the first time since July 28. He also hasn't struck out in three straight games.
*Kyle Tucker: 1x2, RBI, 2BB. Tucker has a four-game RBI streak going, and has gotten on base in nine of his last 13 PAs.
*Houston was 4x16 w/RISP and left 11 men on base. They struck out 13 times, tying a season-high, with 9Ks coming with runners in scoring position. Houston also left the bases loaded in each of the first two innings. It's almost as though not having Bregman, Yordan, and Yuli is a net negative.
*In the 4-5 spot last night were Reddick and Toro, who combined for an 0x8 night, including 0x5 with runners in scoring position.
*Chandler Rome: Why didn't Yuli Gurriel play last night? Dusty:
Did you see Yuli run [Thursday]? That's why we gave him [last night] off. He was looking sore...
*James Click talked to Chandler Rome about Forrest Whitley, and whether or not he's still "untouchable:"
It's difficult to say right now just based on what he's going through. I think we've seen some flashes of the promise of Forrest Whitley in Spring Training 2.0, in particular. I don't think we'd be doing our job if we just took assets off the table and just said that they are untouchable, but obviously there are going to be some players that are just going to be much more difficult to move than other ones.
*Heads-up, Houston and the Texas coast... If you live in or near Houston and don't read Space City Weather, you're doing it wrong. I don't live on the coast and I read it, so what are you even doing with your life?
I've revamped my own personal rules for being on social media and it's been quite lovely. Basically, I'm only going to be on Twitter for the purpose of doing these posts, and that's pretty much it. I highly suggest that everybody log off and not ever, under any circumstance, tweet.
That said, I've missed a lot of items, mainly because I can't bring myself to care all that much anymore about what happens. It's a combination of having Pandemic Brain, facing an unspecified set of challenges and risks, and just being tired of it all. But it's okay, probably!
I was at a wedding pretty much all day yesterday. My wife and kid were in the wedding. I was not (which was perfectly fine by me), but I did show up at 2pm for a wedding in Dallas that started at 6pm. And I will say that The Goldfinch, which I read 1/3 of yesterday (like, 270 pages) sitting in the chapel, is crazy.
The Astros enjoyed their favorite Slump-Bustin' Seattle Mariners, beating them 2-1 last night. The Astros are 23-2 against the Mariners since the beginning of the 2019 season. Houston is now 10-10. Let's look at the AL West standings and run differential:
1. Oakland: 15-6, -GB, +22
2. Arlington: 10-9, -4.0, -11
3. Houston, 10-10, -4.5, +17
That makes sense. Houston is 0-5 against the Dodgers and A's, and 10-5 against everybody else. It's Houston's first 3-game winning streak of the season.
*23-year old Cristian Javier: 6IP, 1H/0ER, 5K:3BB. Javier has made four starts in his MLB career, and has thrown at least 5IP with 0-1ER in three of them. Dusty, on Javier:
Tonight, he had life on the fastball from the opening pitch. He struck out the side in the first inning...it was just a matter of him finding the strike zone tonight.
Javier:
I feel like I have the same plan every time out. I'm really starting to find my rhythm at the big league level and starting to feel comfortable here.
*Josh James threw a scoreless 7th to lower his ERA to 12.00. It was his first scoreless appearance of the season.
*All eight of Ryan Pressly's pitches were for strikes as he got his second save of the season.
*After six games, Alex Bregman was "hitting" .174/.321/.348. In the 14 games since, Bregman has hit .309/.415/.582, with a hit in 13 of those games. He has gotten on base at least once in every single regular season game dating back to September 10, 2019 - a span of 30 games.
*It's crazy to me that the Astros are .500, what with the pitching injuries, Springer hitting .185, Altuve hitting .181. Only four players in the lineup last night are hitting over .260: Bregman (.269), Gurriel (.282), Reddick (.296), and Correa (.310).
*Jose Altuve asked Dusty Baker to be moved down in the lineup, moving down to 7th, where he went 1x3. It's Altuve's 8th career hit in the 7-spot. Altuve has 1,583 career hits - 34 of them have been from the bottom half of the lineup. It was the first time Altuve has started a game lower than 3rd in the lineup since April 17, 2014. Baker:
Jose came into my office and told me, 'Hey man, I'm not helping the club right now at the top of the lineup, and I appreciate the respect you're giving me,' on what he's done in his career. He said, 'The guys ahead of me are swinging the bat better and playing better,' and he just wants to win and get us into the playoffs....He's a consummate team man.
*Michael Brantley was placed on the IL with a sore quad he injured when he stepped on Koe Jelly's foot on July 28. He hasn't played since Tuesday. Click that link to read about Biagini's return. Jake Kaplan thinks Taylor Jones is a good fit to replace Brantley.
He's unable [to get on the mound] according to the injury report...It'd be perfect if we had Whitley, but we don't have Whitley...Whitley I don't think is an option right now or in the near future.
*Happy 100th birthday to the Negro Leagues. Never forget that the Negro Leagues existed because owners and players were so racist they wouldn't let Black people on the same field as whites.
*For the second night in a row, the A's were trailing the Giants by multiple runs in the 9th...and won.
First off: Thanks for sticking with me while I fight the Sads and try to find motivation to do normal things. Hot Links *should* return daily starting...right now, transitioning back to mornings next week.
*The Astros played an inter-squad game today, with Josh James squaring off against National Treasure Zack Greinke.
Zack Greinke on Brent Strom referring to him as the silent assassin: “First I’ve heard of it..probably not the most creative thing I’ve ever heard.”
*For the 12th time in his career, and the 3rd time as an Astro, Justin Verlander will start Opening Day. Verlander: One of my goals was to get my mechanics back to what they had been and get my velocity up to what it used to be, or better than last year anyway. I looked at this as an opportunity to get better. I went through a full rebuild process, working on getting my mechanics where I wanted them. I went down the rabbit hole. *McTaggart also has an Inbox, in which he addressed the Astros' DH until Yordan's return, the Astros' bullpen with Joe Smith opting out, Forrest Whitley, and Cristian Javier.
*In yesterday's Notebook, McTaggart talked about Joe Smith, Austin Pruitt's impending IL stint, Bryan Abreu ready to come out of the bullpen, and Yuli Gurriel's desire to end his MLB career in Houston.
Brent Strom on game7 of the World Series:”I know people will laugh at me,but on my screen saver on my computer is the 2-1 changeup (Greinke)threw to Soto that was a strike that got called a ball n the 7 inning & I think changed the entire World Series..I’m still pissed about it” pic.twitter.com/dOfncre6Ts
*Former Astros Great Bud Norris was released by the Phillies. I had not noticed that Norris was not with a team in 2019 - he last pitched for St. Louis in 2018.
*Back in April I wrote up a history of Leeds United on this here bolg. You would have to be deliberately obtuse to not know that I'm a fan. Today, Leeds beat last-place Barnsley 1-0, though to be fair, the one goal was an own goal on Barnsley. I had some definite World Series Blood Pressure going. Doesn't matter. What it means is that, with a West Bromwich Albion and/or a Brenford tie or loss, or - should those two teams win out - Leeds only need one point in their last two games to go back to the Premier League for the first time since 2004.
*A Musical Selection:
*Vice: 26 essential albums you may have missed in 2020.
