Monday Morning Hot Links

The Astros limped into the All-Star Break with a 3-1 loss to Seattle to close out the first half of the season with a 50-41 record, two games behind South Argyle. The Astros have not spent a single day in 1st place this season. Thank God they don't play again until Friday. 

*The Astros go into the All-Star Break with a 42.4% chance of winning the division, just south of the 44% that FanGraphs gives the Rangers, the closest that race has been since June 13. Baseball-Reference still gives it to the Rangers, 62.1-33.9. 

*After scoring six runs against the Rockies on Wednesday, the Astros were outscored 20-6 in the four-game series against Seattle. 

*The Astros managed just 19 hits in their last four games, their fewest in a four-game span since recording 16 hits from July 7-10, 2021, against Oakland and New York. 

*Houston is 15-5 against Oakland, Anaheim, and South Argyle, but 2-5 against Seattle in 2023. 

Dusty:

If anybody had told me that we'd be two games out with all that has happened, injuries and different things that we had, I'd say I'd be happy to have that. I'm just not happy at the moment.

More Dusty:

I think the best days are ahead. The best days have been ahead since we lost all those guys, and the key is to get them back, but to get them back ready. You don't want to get them back when you're not ready...They're on the way, they're real close. We've just got to win some games and stay where we are until we get them back.

*Brandon Bielak was solid: 5IP, 4H/3R (2ER), 5K:1BB. It was his 7th start (out of 11) in which he has allowed two or fewer earned runs, and the 4th in which he walked one batter (or fewer). 

*Rafael Montero's last four appearances (dating back to June 29): 7IP, 2H/2R (1ER), 3K:2BB. That said, Montero is the first Astros reliever to post a -0.3 fWAR in the first half of a season since Rhiner Cruz in 2012. 

*Ryan Pressly's career with Houston: 257 games, 250.1IP, 173H/67ER, 321K:56BB, 2.41 ERA / 0.92 WHIP. 5.73 K:BB ratio.

Billy Wagner's career with Houston: 464 games, 504.1IP, 333H/142ER, 694K:191BB, 2.53 ERA / 1.04 WHIP. 3.63 K:BB ratio.

*Jake Meyers was 0x3. Since going 4x5 on June 5 against Toronto, Meyers: 69 PAs, .136/.246/.186, 16K:9BB.

*Since going 3x5 with a grand slam on June 29, Alex Bregman's last ten games: .143/.268/.171. 

*Martin Maldonado hit a home run in back-to-back games for the first time since September 20-21, 2021. 

*Chron: Houston's first half in review.

*Dusty said that Framber will not pitch in the All-Star Game.

*Jose Urquidy threw a 40-pitch bullpen while Yordan took some swings and Altuve tracked pitches.

MLB Draft

*The Astros selected Atascocita HS/University of Nebraska's Brice Matthews with the 28th overall pick last night. It's the 7th time in franchise history that the Astros have taken a Cornhusker, the most recents being Scott Schreiber (9th Round - 2018) and Jake Meyers (13th Round - 2017). The slot value for 1-28 is $2,880,700.

Matthews hit .359/.481/.723 for Nebraska in 2023, and is the first player in program history have a 20HR/20SB season.

Scouting Director Kris Gross:

Postseason, we brought him into Minute Maid Park and had a day with him and his family here and he did a workout in the cage down below. Very impressed with the kid, the family. A lot lined up since he was at our Urban Youth Academy. We had a lot of comfort pulling that magnet off the board.

ESPN:

New GM Dana Brown comes from a more traditional scouting background, but this is a pick that aligns with the Astros' number-crunching models of the past decade. But Matthews is more than just a data darling, as all of his tools grade as average or better.

ESPN questioned whether he would stay at SS, or transition to the outfield, but Chandler Rome talked to Gross, who said:

We think he's got the athleticism to cover a lot of ground at shortstop. It's a little bit new for him - he was an outfielder mainly in high school, played second base at Nebraska his freshman year. Only two years at shortstop, but we like the range, he's got the arm strength to do it and we think that's his long-term future.

Jonathan Mayo: 

This one might have taken some by surprise, as Matthews profiled more as a second-round type of talent. But he does have an exciting combination of home run potential and plus speed.

Matt Kawahara: How Matthews went from Atascocita to Nebraska.

*With their second pick of the night, at 2-61, the Astros selected UCLA's Alonzo Tredwell. And all they said was 6'8" he stood, and people thought the pitches that he made were good. Gross:

He's got some frontline potential. His fastball is 90-95, huge extension down the slope. He's got four pitches, he throws a ton of strikes. We thought he really has a high ceiling if he can put it all together. We're excited to get that one in the second round.

Tredwell, who had Tommy John Surgery in 2020, was a closer at UCLA for two years before transitioning to the rotation this year. In 92.1IP in his collegiate career, Tredwell posted a 113K:18BB ratio. 

Other Stuff

*USMNT beat Canada in penalties last night to reach the Gold Cup Semifinal.

*Check on your friends in the Hudson Valley.

*A Musical Selection:

Thursday Morning Hot Links

This offseason is uneventful so far. And, having lived through last off-season, I'm perfectly fine with that. AstroLine is back on Thursday night from 6-7pm, featuring Robert Ford/Steve Sparks interviewing GM Jiminy Clicket. 

*Josh Reddick said goodbye to Houston. Goodbye, Josh Reddick, fare thee well. 

*The Astros have asked for unconditional release waivers for Cy Sneed, clearing the way for his move to Japan. The 40-Man Roster stands at 38 Men.

*Peter Solomon, the Astros' 4th Round pick in the 2017 Draft, has recovered from Tommy John Surgery and is ready to go for 2021 Spring Training. Solomon, who has thrown 109.1IP for the Astros in the minors and struck 128 batters (with 36 walks), will be in his Age 24 season in 2021. 

*This is about a week old but Jose Alberto Rivera is the Astros' most-intriguing prospect available via the Rule 5 Draft.

*FanGraphs' Jay Jaffe breaks down Former Astros Great Billy Wagner's HOF chances via JAWS. Jaffe:

Undersized and from both a broken home and an impoverished rural background, he channeled his frustrations into throwing incredibly hard - with his left hand, despite being a natural righty, for he broke his right arm twice as a child.

Billy Wagner is absolutely a Hall of Famer. I skipped my own wedding shower (at my wife's church, to be fair) to watch Wagner record his 200th save, against the Rays, a 2-1 win that went Redding to Dotel to Wagner. 

*The White Sox non-tendered Carlos Rodon, and I'll give you $20 if you had seen that coming in 2015. Reminder that Rodon, the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 Draft, two picks after the Astros took Brady Aiken. 

*In case you missed it, on Monday morning I posted a delightful 37-minute interview with Astros fan/Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter for the Washington Post David Fahrenthold.

*On the 78th anniversary of the event, I wrote about the 1942 Boston College/Holy Cross game and the second-deadliest fire in American history.

*NY Times: This Japanese shop is 1,020 years old and knows a thing or two about surviving a crisis.

*Here are your nominees for the Wildlife Photographer of the Year.

*A Musical Selection (A Cover, even!)

Saturday Morning Hot Links

It's FanFest today! Shoutout to everyone who will be at Minute Maid Park today, awkwardly avoiding eye contact. 2020 FanFest Sessions include:

"I'd Like To Comment On That But..." - 10:30am. Mezzanine.
"Hey Look At This Shiny Thing Over Here" - 11:30am. Torchy's Tacos.
"45 Weird Minutes With Orbit" - 12:30pm. Crawford Street.
"Dealing With Other Fans, A How-To" - 1:30pm. KidZone.
"Game 5 Highlights On Loop" - 2:15pm. JumboTron.

*Jeff Passan: Buzzers, Burner Accounts, and Conspiracies - Inside Baseball's Epic Day of Chaos.

*FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel: What's next for the Astros?

*Current Astros Legend Joe Smith responded to The Athletic's Marc Carig, which said Baseball needs more people like Mike Fiers:
Disagree. Baseball doesn't need whistle blowers 2 years after. You have an issue? Step up address it in house and get it taken care of. (sic)

*Jim Crane told Chandler Rome he wants to have a manager in place by 3 February. The Killer Bs will help out in "any way" they can. Here's McTaggart's summary, in case you're paywalled.

Chandler Rome:
Espada's candidacy could be tainted by his presence on the 2018 Houston coaching staff.

Twenty people have contacted Reid Ryan regarding the managerial opening. Crane is running the show, with an assist from Ryan.

*GM candidates will interview beginning next week.

*Representative Bobby Rush (Democrat - Illinois) requested a Congressional oversight hearing on the Astros' cheating, and MLB's response. And before you lose it, know that Bobby Rush is a 73-year old Congressman from Chicago whose family moved there from Georgia in the Great Migration, joined the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee in 1966, joined the Army, was a founding member of the Black Panthers, got his degree, Master's, and M.Div, and has been a Congressman since 1993. He is the only politician to defeat Barack Obama in an election. Bobby Rush is Actually For Real.

Also, a Congressional Oversight Hearing would also presumably (if Congress is an actual functioning body anymore) require evidence of other teams doing the same thing, which we all so desperately crave, with MLB's Anti-Trust Exemption possibly hanging in the balance. You want the full story? MLB having to do a full investigation at risk of losing that Exemption just might be the best option. Or you're of the opinion that Congress has More Important Things to worry about at best, and Congress is useless at worst. Let's find out.

Of course, there are about 1,329 issues to which Congress could devote its time that would be far more beneficial to the fabric to the country (and I would say this if the subject of the investigation was someone I spend 0.1% of my time thinking about, like the Padres, for instance) than this, but we all have bloodlust right now so whatever.

*The Athletic's Andy McCulloch wrote about The Week That Shook Baseball. TL;DR: The Astros, and Mike Fiers, blew it all up.

*ESPN: How the internet helped crack the Astros sign-stealing case.

*Justin Klugh: Baseball's integrity isn't emotional, it's structural.

*SI: Can MLB stop sign-stealing?

*Billy Wagner won't get elected to the Hall of Fame this year, but he's gaining momentum.

*Dusty Baker is a candidate for the Mets' now-vacant managerial opening.

*Both MLB and the MLBPA issued a joint-statement (presumably regarding Mike Trout) that said there's no therapeutic exemption for the use of HGH.

*Kyler Murray thinks he just might could be the next Bo Jackson.

*Amtrak asked two people in wheelchairs to pay $25,000 for a $16 fare.

*The Disturbing Case of the Disappearing Sci-Fi Story.

*A Musical Selection:



The Hot Links Playlist on Spotify has 254 songs running now for just over 16 hours.

Friday Morning Hot Links

Heading to The H this morning. Hot Links good for Saturday morning, maybe not Sunday morning. We'll see about Christmas Day. #NoDaysOffExceptWhenIOversleep #RiseNGrindCoffeeBeans #JordanSchafer4Lyfe

*The World Series banner will be unveiled on Opening Day, April 2 vs Baltimore (rings the next day). I personally think they should unveil it on March 29, Opening Day at Arlington. Maybe Les Douches would want to trade a home series then.

*Ah man, Larry Dierker's wife Judy recently passed away.

*Jon Heyman's newest "Inside Baseball" edition on the Astros features a note clarified by Tom Verducci and also has some cool Baseball-Reference research on Billy Wagner. So he linked to another article and then looked at Baseball-Reference for ten minutes? I'mma sue for Brand Infringement.

*Now considered one of MLB's "Super Seven" teams, David Schoenfield writes that the Astros should add another left-handed bat.

*Bob Bowman, who led MLB Advanced Media for the last 17 years, is out after years of "troubling workplace behavior." If you don't subscribe to the Wall Street Journal (and I can confirm that I do not), then this MLBTR piece has details. They're not pretty. Glad this scumbag is out and hey Selig it's kinda sorta on you.

*Yankees are probably going to add Gerrit Cole.

*A lot of players will go into the clubhouse between innings and break down video. Darryl Strawberry would go into the clubhouse between innings, but he would not break down video.

*RIP Dick Enberg.

*

Binge out this holiday season with TEN of the best @astros games from this season! Manager @ajhinch joins @JuliaMorales in studio to break down the games! #AstrosPlayback pic.twitter.com/9DIi8UicvX

— AT&T SportsNet SW (@ATTSportsNetSW) December 21, 2017

Before you go:

Whos mans is this?? pic.twitter.com/mWYxaUUeh4

— Whistle Sports (@WhistleSports) December 21, 2017

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

I am off for the next six days. Since my wretched body doesn't know how to sleep past 6:30am there will likely be Hot Links each morning, just not as early - my alarm is not going off at 4:45am for the next five days.

*The Astros apparently met with free agent pitcher Yu Darvish yesterday. Heyman:
The extent of the Astros' interest is unknown and is a bit curious since they tattooed Darvish twice in the World Series (though there was a report in Sports Illustrated quoting an Astros player who said Darvish was tipping his pitches, which might actually help him since that's presumably correctable). Astros higher-up Nolan Ryan...was Rangers CEO when they signed Darvish, though that was mostly the production of GM Jon Daniels, who still seems to have his eye on the Darvish market.

Richard Justice has five reasons why the Astros signing Yu Darvish makes sense.

*Maybe the Rangers are a little panicked about it?

*Early season Sunday Night Baseball matchups!
-April 15 vs Arlington
-May 20 vs Cleveland

*The Houston chapter of the BBWAA handed out some awards:
MVP: Jose Altuve
Co-Pitchers of the Year: Dallas Keuchel / Brad Peacock
Rookie of the Year: Yuli Gurriel
Darryl Kile Good Guy Award: Carlos Correa

*Jay Jaffe breaks down the "fascinating, borderline" Hall of Fame case of Billy Wagner.

*LA Times' Bill Plaschke: If LA Sports' 2017 had a name, it would be Yu Darvish. Lots of "we"s and "our"s in here. I try very hard not to refer to the Astros with "our," "we," "us." I run a blog for $0.

*Cool story in the New York Post about the impact Aaron Boone had in his brief time with the Astros.

*Uh, Rangers lefty Martin Perez - who led the team in starts in 2016 and 2017 - got injured by a bull.

*Diana Moskovitz: "You survived at NFL Network by staying silent."

*Willie Nelson's "Pretty Paper" is a true story.

Ken Giles is actually sort of Billy Wagner

Shhhh. Just listen to me for a second. Yes, go ahead and get a drink. Yes, I’ll wait.

For a while now #on #line I’ve been seeing Unnamed People saying how much easier life would be if only Billy Wagner was anchoring the bullpen and not Ken Giles. But folks I’m here to tell you that Ken Giles is basically Billy Wagner.

Step right inside this Waybach. Wagner was in the Astros’ bullpen from 1996 (I’m not counting his one appearance where he threw 0.1IP in 1995) until the end of the 2003 season. With the Astros Wagner saved 225 games, threw 504.1IP with a 2.53 ERA/1.04 WHIP. He struck out 12.4 batters per game over those eight seasons, with a 2.81 FIP, 5.9 hits/9, and a 3.63 K:BB ratio. He was very good.

Wagner also threw hard. FanGraphs’ pitch type data dates back to the beginning of the 2002 season, but in his final season in Houston – 2003 – Wagner averaged 97.9mph on his fastball, which he threw about 79% of the time. He’d mix in an 88mph slider with the other 20% and apparently threw a couple of curves and changeups.

This is where Ken Giles comes in. While obviously Giles has a ways to go in terms of longevity, his 2017 season compares favorably to Wagner: 2.54 ERA / 0.99 WHIP that is actually underperforming his 2.45 FIP. Giles has struck out 12.1 batters/9, a 4.00 K:BB ratio, and has allowed 5.9 hits/9 this season – precisely the same as Wagner’s eight seasons in Houston. Pitch-wise, Giles has thrown his 97.2mph (average) fastball 56.6% of the time to go with an 86.4mph slider, which he throws the other 43.4% of the time.

Where the disconnect comes in, I think, is that fans are waiting for Giles to turn back into April 2016 Giles, not appreciating him for what he’s done. When he blew the save over the weekend in Oakland, those were the 3^rd and 4^th runs he had allowed since the All-Star Break. Giles seems to dance in and out of trouble, but as long as he’s dancing out of it, it’s fine.

Where Wagner gets Giles is in two places:

*Wagner’s ERA+ is 171. Giles’ is 157. So Wagner was a better reliever relative to the league than Giles has been this season.

      *Wagner’s got longevity. I guess I forgot – or wasn’t paying attention – to the part where Wagner posted a 2.03 ERA / 0.95 WHIP between 2004-2010 for the Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, and Braves with a 212 ERA+, 11.3 K/9, and a 4.61 K:BB ratio. So, yeah, Wagner should be in the conversation for the Hall of Fame. From 1969-2010 (his last year) Wagner posted the 6^th-highest career fWAR among qualified relievers. His 24.1 fWAR is better than HOFers Dennis Eckersley and Bruce Sutter. 

      

      Wagner’s 11.92 K/9 is 4^th among relievers in the same time span (behind Carlos Marmol, Rob Dibble, and…yes, Brad Lidge.) His 2.31 career ERA is tied for 9^th among relievers. Saves are whatever you want them to be, but Wagner is one of five relievers with 400+ saves. Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith are HOFers. He’s 56 saves behind Lee Smith and just two behind John Franco, who probably deserves more consideration than he actually gets.

      Billy Wagner was freaking good, y’all. And Ken Giles – again – needs to have this season seven more times in a row to be part of a larger conversation, but Ken Giles has been favorably dominant this year, even if your friends try to tell you otherwise. 

Billy Wagner Gave Up An Inside The Park Grand Slam

Billy Wagner, as you may recall, was a very good pitcher. In 1999 he was such a great pitcher that he came in 4th in the Cy Young voting and 16th for MVP. But as the great Howie Day once said, even the best fall down sometimes.

On July 21, the Astros held a 2.5 game lead over the Cincinnati Reds. That night, they hosted the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were a game and a half back of the San Fransisco Giants out in the the NL West. Houston sent 23-year-old Scott Elarton to the mound to try and push their NL Central lead even further.

Elarton, who would end his first full big league season 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA, was okay. In only his fifth start of the season after moving from the bullpen, the lanky right-hander buckled down after allowing two runs in the first to go five innings and leave with a 4-2 lead thanks to a three-run Jeff Bagwell homerun in the bottom of the fifth.

Trevor Miller worked a perfect sixth, highlighted by a strikeout of fellow lefty Steve Finley. Miller then worked a non-perfect seventh, giving up an RBI single before being relieved by Jay Powell, who escaped a bases-loaded jam by inducing a Matt Williams pop-up to short.

Powell came back out for the top of the eighth and promptly issued two walks and hit a batter. With two outs and the bases loaded in a one-run game, manager Larry Dierker called on Wagner to get a four-out save.

Wagner entered the day with a 2.00 ERA (he would finish the season with a ridiculous 1.57 ERA). He was 24-of-25 in save attempts with 79 strikeouts in 45 innings. Opponents were hitting .127/.194.223 against him (lol).

The 5-10 Wagner peered in at the equally diminutive Tony Womack. With an 0-2 count, Womack choked up on his bat in an attempt to at least touch a pitch from Wagner. Wagner cocked his left arm back and fired a fastball that caught too much of the plate. Chaos ensued.

Womack was understandably late on an upper-90s fastball, but he managed to poke it into left field. Charging in and playing in just his sixth major league game was Lance Berkman. Knowing the game was on the line, Berkman layed out to try and make the catch.

Been there, man.

The ball rolled all the way to the wall. Berkman got up and relayed the ball to shortstop Carlos Hernandez, who appeared to beat Womack home. 

But the throw was just up the line and the home plate umpire signaled "safe."

Paul Bako respectfully disagreed.

The score would remain 7-4 and the Astros would lose. It was the only loss of the season for Wagner.

Womack finished his 13-year career with just 36 homeruns and only three were off of left-handed pitching. 

Baseball is weird.

Friday Morning Hot Links

*Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh have their Spring Training plans customized. Keuchel tends to feel worse during Spring Training because of the shock of throwing, and the Astros are still holding on to his Cy Young award.

*Optimism: what in the world is that?

*Pat Neshek had a massive piece of bone removed from the foot that bothered him all during the 2015 season. The picture is disgusting.

*Luke Gregerson already has a light oblique strain. And he's still a little salty about the addition of Ken Giles:
I don't see any reason why things should change. Obviously, bringing the guy we brought in, he's got a strong power arm and showing he can get guys out at the Major League level, and he's going to be a great addition to our bullpen no matter where we all fit in.

*Our friend Terri wrote about predictions and the Astros at the Crawfish Boxes.

*Over here, we have 2800 words on the Astros, Phil Nevin, Derek Jeter, and the 1992 Draft.

*How Channel 2 helped Billy Wagner...

*The New York Times on baseball in the Dominican Republic.

*Andrew Friedman talked about just what the hell they're doing in LA.

*How a puppy helped save Evan Marshall's life and career.

*Matthew Kory wrote about how badly you would hurt a major league team if you had to play for a week.

Before you go:

Astros roster for spring by name and number as one of you requested pic.twitter.com/vaY8NYj3kR

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) February 18, 2016

Hall of Fame reset

I'll be honest, none of us were in much of a frame of mind to go in and write about Jeff Bagwell receiving 71.6% of the vote in the Hall of Fame's election which was announced yesterday for fear of descending into staggering vulgarity and possible threats against writers whose opinions did not match our own. I still feel that way, but I think I can rein it in this morning.

*I tried not to think about it, but it's pretty hard not to. My standard line right now is Junior was in a hot tub the entire day not worrying about anything because he knew he was going to get in. It's the other guys that were struggling.

*It's okay. It's my sixth time, it's not like it's my first. I know there's a process. I'll wait my time.

*You can blame mainly Boston, New York, and Chicago for Bagwell's non-election.

*The BBWAA is making progress where the 1990s are concerned, writes Brian T. Smith.

#congratulations to Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey . Next year will be Bagwell's.

— Billy Wagner (@wagsk13wjs_e) January 7, 2016

*Thibs' spreadsheet was the basis for 1,000 columns. If you want to shame writers, here's your database.

Non-HOF links:

*The David Stearns-led Brewers signed Chris Carter to a 1yr/$2.5m deal.

*Alex Bregman is looking to build on his strong second-half in 2017.

*You will soon be able to stream Astros games in China, but not in Texas.

*Roger Clemens and Roy Halladay got into a tiff yesterday.

In short: Screw everything. Life doesn't even matter. It's winter and Spring Training will never get here and the Writers are stupid and

Tuesday Morning Hot Links

According to Blogger, this is the 11,000th post on Astros County. What are we even doing with our lives?

Hear's what ewe knead too no:

*The Astros, Orioles, and Royals still appear to be the strongest suitors for pitcher Yovani Gallardo.

*And if the Astros aren't interested in giving a draft pick to the Rangers should they sign Gallardo, Buster Olney says that free agent pitcher Doug Fister has received multiple 1-2-year offers.

Fister had a down year in 2015, ultimately losing his starting job in the Nationals' rotation and only striking out five batters per nine innings to go along with a career high in ERA/FIP/xFIP. I could see a scenario in which the Astros sign Fister to a short-term deal and let Brent Strom take a crack at him to see if Fister can regain his prior form.

*Morgan Ensberg is the perfect mindset coach. Ensberg:
I've always been a guy that has had empathy for the players and managers, and I realize that obviously so much data-driven information is being used, and so we're putting players in situations that they don't feel comfortable. Baseball is so hard, and to ask a player to do something that's even more difficult than what they're used to adds even another level of anxiety. I'm there to kind of mentor them and be there for them as they go through these scary times.

*Billy Wagner isn't getting any love.

*...but purging a gaggle of old-timers from the voting ranks of the BBWAA just might help.

*Got $100,000 laying around? Have dinner with an Astro and spouse, ten of your favorite people (who better each be kicking in $10,000), and meet James Taylor.

*Instead of buying championship rings, the Perth Heat of the Australian Baseball League bought a clubhouse dog.

Monday Morning Hot Links

The Astros - and pretty much everybody else - are running around the sprawling hellscape that is the Opryland Hotel as the Winter Meetings officially open.

*Evan Drellich writes that the Astros' payroll doesn't measure up to Houston's market size.

Dodgers and astros have seemed most active on chapman. Word recently was houston and cincy were having hard time matching up

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 7, 2015

*Drellich, who has been busy!, writes about Lance McCullers and Aroldis Chapman.

*Cincinnati execs are confident they'll move Chapman this week.

*In ESPN's Winter Meetings preview, David Schoenfield predicts that the Astros will land both Aroldis Chapman and Chris Davis, which would then allow the Astros to "trade prospect A.J. Reed for a young, controllable starting pitcher." /apoplexy

*When the A's played the Astros in September, A's players recruited Scott Kazmir to come back to Oakland this offseason.

*Tyler Kepner writes about Billy Wagner's HOF credentials.

Hall of Fame Voting Preview

It's that time again. The BBWAA mailed the 2016 Hall of Fame Ballots yesterday. The big story, as is has been the last several years, is how crowded the ballot is once again. Four inductees last year, including Biggio on his third try, helped the backlog, but with Ken Griffey Jr., Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner and Jim Edmonds joining the ballot, there remains 17 or more candidates who at least deserve consideration. The BBWAA still is limited to voting for 10, because humans have 5 fingers on each hand, and therefore use a base 10 counting system.

The other big news is the size of the electorate will shrink. Last year, the Hall of Fame mailed 600 ballots, and ended up with 549 returned. Based on new rules, outlined here, nearly 20% of the electorate has been deemed ineligible. The Hall estimated that under the new rules, 475 ballots will be mailed. If you assume the majority of the newly ineligible voters did not reveal their ballots publicly in previous years, this could be huge for Bagwell. Public voters supported Bagwell at a 60% clip. Private ballots were at 48%. If you assume the marginally less crowded ballot will also cause an uptick in raw vote totals for Bagwell, this could result in a huge increase in percentage, setting up for a possible 2017 election. If he can jump to 65-67% this year, it will almost guarantee his eventual election.

Bagwell is not the only candidate with Astros ties on the ballot. Billy Wagner is the next biggest name. He likely has no shot at election, particularly on this ballot. He lacks the shiny save totals that fellow first timer Trevor Hoffman has, although he matches or exceeds him in nearly all other categories. I would put him in the top 5 relievers ever. It's guys like Wagner who are the biggest victims of the stuffed ballot. We likely need to have a debate about what makes a Hall of Fame reliever, and whether Wagner qualifies. But I'm afraid there will not be enough people who can find room on the ballot this year to engage in that debate long term. I'll say this: He is every bit the candidate that Bruce Sutter was, and then some. Then again, Sutter would not sniff the Hall of Fame if he debuted on this ballot, either.

Other notable Astros on the ballot for the first time are Brad Ausmus and Mike Hampton, who provide meaning to the phrase "it's an honor to be nominated." I do not imagine they will appear on the ballot next year.

Bagwell would have fought Gomez at first

Perhaps you saw Brian McCann be the superhero that Gotham deserves, wrestling the title of Keeper of the Unwritten Rules of Baseball away from Chris Carpenter, and block the Brewers' Carlos Gomez from crossing the plate so he could start a fight. I actually did see it, as the whole sequence was part of the 12 minutes of Braves baseball I watched this season.

Well, in the aftermath, someone asked Billy Wagner what would have happened had Carlos Gomez done that to him, because of course they did.

Wagner said if it had happened when he played for the Astros, Gomez wouldn’t have made it past first base because Jeff Bagwell would have started a fight with him. Old school.

Wagner, still reppin' 713

The Cuz sent me this quote, from an MLB.com article on Billy Wagner, on the Atlanta clubhouse after giving up a game-tying homer to Edgar Renteria:

"After those games, I don't really like to show my face. I feel horrible. But these guys in here were like, 'You're OK. No big deal.' I've been on teams where you have a tough game like I did the other day and it's like, 'What's up with this guy?' Here, you have guys coming up and saying, 'Hey, we win as a team and lose as a team.' That's something I haven't heard since I played in Houston."

Hooray!

Of course the Astros are interested in Billy Wagner

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi are reporting (scroll down) that the Astros are among eight teams with interest in Billy Wagner.

Boston, Atlanta, Washington, Houston and Baltimore are on the list, according to Stringfellow, along with three teams that preferred to remain anonymous.

Only in Boston would he not be the closer. This theoretically makes sense for the Astros, who are most likely going to lose Jose Valverde to free agency. And even though Wagner is a Type A free agent, the Astros would lose their second round pick as they finished in the bottom half of MLB teams (the 1st-15th picks are protected). But if the Astros offer arbitration to Valverde and he declines, they would then get that team's first round pick (unless the signing team was in the bottom 15, in which they would get the team's 2nd round pick).

I just...don't even know.

Wagner "in demand," says hilariously-named agent

Billy Wagner's agent, Bean Stringfellow (I swear), said this morning (via Smiley Rosenthal):

Six teams have already called to ask about his client.

All of them are interested in Wagner as a closer, Stringfellow said.

"That's what he is -- a closer," Stringfellow added.

Stringfellow declined to say which teams had inquired. But the Tigers, Astros, Rays, Orioles, Braves and Nationals are among the clubs with uncertainty at the back end of their bullpen.

There's your six teams.

Rogers: Astros may need Wagner

With Jose Valverde's impending free agency, the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers speculates on the future of Billy Wagner:

The Cubs don't have much payroll space, and they may prefer to go with Carlos Marmol as their closer. Then again, they wouldn't do so a year ago when Marmol was coming off a good season. The Cubs could offer Wagner a chance to close, as could the Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Braves. Even Wagner's old teams, the Phillies and Astros, have back-end bullpen concerns.

My take: The Sox could use Guerrero or another RBI guy to lessen the load on Paul Konerko, the often-injured Carlos Quentin and Gordon Beckham. But Williams seems to want a left-handed hitter and will steer away from base-clogging types, like Guerrero. Wagner makes sense for the Cubs only they've had enough of Carlos Marmol. He did a solid job as the closer once Lou Piniella gave him the job. I'd stick with him for 2010. But he would have some trade value. Wagner will want to close wherever he goes, so to have him and Marmol in the same bullpen isn't a good idea.

So if Chicago is out, and the Astros need a closer, would you want them to sign Billy Wagner?

Wagner to retire

Word from Yahoo Sports is that former Houston, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston closer Billy Wagner will retire.

So the question is, what's your favorite Billy Wagner memory?

Oooh, I've got one:

Sunday, June 8, 2003. Astros are hosting the Devil Rays at the typical 1:05 start. I was at the game by myself, because it was my wedding shower that day, and I was under the impression that I wasn't supposed to be there. So I had lunch with my in-laws-to-be and bride-to-be after church, and then took off for Minute Maid Park.

I had just upgraded to a new phone, which I had in my pocket. I put my Coke under my seat, and in the 2nd inning reached down to get a drink and was poked in the eye. By the antenna of my brand new phone, which had fallen out of my pocket and into my Coke. Regardless, the Astros win, 2-1, Wagner picks up his 200th career save, and the game takes 1h54m, so I'm back at the church building in time to pick up all the presents, and head home. The Future Constabless was pretty upset, because I didn't answer my High Fructose Corn Phone, but we worked it out. Six years later, we're still quite happily married, and I have a new phone that stays out of my pocket.

The phone that I got to replace that was shattered on Opening Day 2004, when I purchased MLB Extra Innings for the first time. We lived in Abilene, TX, and I was tired of watching Rangers game half the season. So on Opening Day, we threw a big party for our Astros-fan friends, and got a black screen for three hours, because Abilene was in the Astros' blackout zone. Six hours away. Thus, the shattered phone.

Heyman said what?

Jon Heyman, via Twitter:

wagner doing great audition in boston. best possibilities for next year: #braves, #astros, #cubs, #tigers, #nats (maybe)

Holy crap. Everyone knows Valverde's out the door. The only question is whether the Astros offer him arbitration and take a risk that he really will leave (which he probably will) and get a couple of draft picks for him. The bad news is he could take it, and make $10-12 million next year. That's bad. So maybe they'll pull a Ty Wigginton and not offer him arbitration, and just let him walk, and thank him for his 66 saves (and counting).

But what if he leaves? LaHawk makes $3.5 million. As a setup man. One of the last contracts before everyone in baseball realized the economy was going to suck for a long time. So if he is promoted to closer, will he get a raise? Did the Astros sign Armando Benitez this season to give him Triple-A action in order to give him a shot in 2010? But a homecoming for Billy Wagner? What do you think?

Billy Wagner makes triumphant return against GCL Astros

And strikes out two in one inning of work.