Saturday Morning Hot Links

Yep, just checked again, last night actually happened. We're one ridiculous Game 2 First Inning away from last night being the Series. Let's check in on the morning after, and the day before. Everything is Cope-acetic up in Aledo.

*Verlander:

I don't think anybody is mad about him pimping a homer, it was the biggest homer in his career, quite honestly.

Nathaniel Lowe:

Wearing this jersey, having Adolis be my teammate, it feels pretty intentional. There's a history, obviously, between these two teams. I'm sure Alvarez didn't like the ball high and tight to him either. But in today's game, we throw fastballs up. If you want to get emotional about something like that and take it out on a guy that hit a three-run homer, that's too bad. I don't really stand for it. 

That's some mental gymnastics, saying it's okay for Alvarez to get brushed up and in by Aroldis Chapman (who does have a history of hitting people) but not Garcia because Garcia is a hot-head. It's ackshually Alvarez's fault for not getting mad. Hmph. [stomps foot].

When half your bench is running out in a hurry and guys on the injured list want to run their mouth and starters who aren't involved want to get involved, it seems like there are more emotions tied in than gameplay.

*An anonymous Ramger:

One of the best relievers in baseball just suddenly lost command? Maldonado's smart. They got exactly what they wanted, Adolis riled up. Crazy coincidence, isn't it?

Willing to put a small amount of money on the Anonymous Ramger being GM Chris Young. But if Maldonado told Abreu to hit Adolis Garcia to put two men on with nobody out in the bottom of the 8th, down 4-2, just because he knew Adolis Garcia would get pissed off and delay the game for 11 minutes, thus icing Jose LeClerc, who barely ever gives up home runs, so that he would give up a single to Yainer Diaz, who hadn't gotten a hit since September 24, and then walk Jon Singleton, who hadn't received an AB since October 1, thus allowing Jose Altuve to hit a go-ahead three-run home run and take the series back to Houston up 3-2...then Maldonado's new name is Baba Yagaldonado, because that's 18th Dimension Wizard Chess. 

What this tells me is that there are various and sundry Rangers who have night terrors and Martin Maldonado is always holding the knife. 

*Adolis Garcia:

He could have hurt me.

Dubon:

That helped us out a little bit, I think, focus a little bit more. It's crazy. The emotions were high. Everyone knew what was going on. It's baseball. It's fun baseball. It set a different fire, I think, inside everybody.

Marcus Semien:

Everybody on their side is going to say it wasn't [on purpose]. Everybody on this side is going to say it was. The only one who really knows was the pitcher. 

*If there is a suspension for Abreu, it likely won't take effect until the 2024 regular season.

*The ever-even-keeled @RangersInsiders:

Why do good things happen to bad people?

*A Musical Selection:

Game 5 Hot Links

Ahem. Now we have a rivalry. The Astros won Game 5, 5-4. It was the Astros' 7th straight postseason road win, their last postseason road loss coming in 2022 World Series Game 3, the "Let McCullers Get Shelled and Then Throw A No-Hitter" game.

FanGraphs: Houston 78.4 - 21.6 Six Flags.

Let's look at the Win Expectancy Roller Coaster:

1st Inning - Bregman solo homer: 55.8% Astros

4th Inning - Lowe solo homer: 53.8% Ramgers

6th Inning - Jose Abreu RBI single: 73.8% Astros

6th Inning - Adolis Garcia 3-run homer: 82.7% Rangers

8th Inning - Adolis Garcia HBP: 96.0% Rangers

9th Inning - Yainer Diaz single: 84.3% Rangers

9th Inning - Jon Singleton walk: 72.2% Rangers

9th Inning - Jose Altuve 3-run homer: 82.9% Astros

9th Inning - Mitch Garver single: 65.2% Astros

9th Inning - Jonah Heim single: 53.2% Rangers

9th Inning - Evan Carter strikeout: 100.0% Astros

*Let's talk about that Adolis Garcia HBP:

-Did Adolis Garcia pimp his three-run homer in the 6th? Absolutely! Did he have every right to do that? For sure! I would still be moonwalking between 1st and 2nd base if I had hit that home run, which was actually Adolis Garcia's 100th career home run. That home run was massive. Absolutely no issue with Garcia slamming the bat down and yelling. 

-Did Abreu try to hit him? Obviously I'm biased. I've spent a number of years referring to the Rangers as being located in a different random Metroplex suburb. I hate that team. That said, there is absolutely no reason to hit Adolis Garcia. Evan Carter was on 1st base after Abreu walked him. It was 4-2 Rangers, and the Astros had three outs to play with before having to go back to Minute Maid Park needing to win both games to win the Pennant. I'm sure the Astros have won back-to-back home games in 2023...but I can't quite remember when. (September 9-10 vs San Diego).

-What I'm trying to say is that intentionally hitting Garcia would be the height of stupidity. Garcia had woken up the World's Largest Storage Unit already, there would be no reason to fan the flames. I think Abreu was trying to blow an fastball by him. There were 0 outs. Maybe get a GIDP. 

-I also understand why Garcia was pissed off. If someone hit me with a 97mph fastball you would see my soul ascend (I'm assuming I'm going to Heaven) on a cloud, playing a harp. There wouldn't even be dental records, such would be my demise. 

-Shoutout to Dusty Baker for actually getting out of the dugout and putting his finger in one the faces of this awful umpiring crew. Dusty: "I haven't been that mad in a long time."

-Altuve's homer got Marvin Hudson off the hook for what was an absolutely God-awful job behind the plate. I didn't know Dusty had it in him. It also got Altuve off the hook for trying to bunt with Tucker on second base. 

-Ultimately Garcia's outburst may have actually cost the Ramgers that game. He iced LeClerc, which is French for "The Clerc," for 11 minutes after he got Michael Brantley to juuuust get under one to end the inning with Kyle Tucker on second base. LeClerc's 9th Inning: Walk, Walk, Homer (then some outs). 

Bruce Bochy:

I was concerned about that delay. I really was. It as a long one. It was taking too long, to be honest. The whole thing is a bunch of crap, to be honest, what happened there. Who knows what intentions are, but it's not the first time it's happened, and couldn't get the game going again.

LeClerc:

I'm not used to waiting around that long to pitch again, but it's no excuse. I needed to execute my pitches and do a better job.

That doesn't happen if Adolis Garcia just walks to first. 

-But if Abreu did it on purpose, then he's dumb as hell and deserved to get tossed. And suspended.

*Abreu apparently told Garcia that it wasn't on purpose, and Garcia responded: "Bullshit."

*To the "Game:"

Verlander made one bad pitch. That pitch also moved Verlander out of a tie with Clayton Kershaw for the 2nd-most postseason home runs allowed and past Andy Pettitte's 31 playoff homers and into sole possession of most postseason home runs allowed, at 32.

Of the 32 postseason home runs Verlander has now allowed, 19 have come with the Astros. That breakdown:

Solo: 13

2-Run: 3

3-Run: 3

Grand Slams: 0

It's the 9th time Verlander has allowed 2HR in a postseason game, and the 6th time it's happened with the Astros, who are now 2-4 in postseason games in which Verlander gives up 2HR. 

*Jordan Montgomery vs Houston, ALCS: 11.2IP, 10H/2ER, 9K:3BB.

*Shoutout to Yainer Diaz, who got his first career postseason hit. 

*Shoutout to Jon Singleton, who drew a walk that became the tying run in his first plate appearance since October 1. Singleton:

You put in the hard work, and you stay ready so you don't have to get ready. That's been my motto so far this year. 

*Jose LeClerc had only allowed 23 homers in 302.1 career IP. He had given up 5HR in the 2023 regular season. Only one of those career home runs had more than one on base - a grand slam to Julio Rodriguez on July 15, 2022. And then came Jose Altuve. 

*Jose Altuve hit his 26th career postseason home run to record his 54th career postseason RBI. It was his first multi-RBI game since 2021 ALCS G2. Altuve had 3RBI in his previous 25 postseason games combined. Listen to Robert Ford's call of the home run.

Altuve:

I know everybody is talking about the homer. But if you go and see Diaz's base hit and then Singleton's walk, especially when he hasn't played in a lot of days...coming from the bench facing probably one of the best closers right now in the playoffs, I think the key was these two guys and to be able to score all those runs. 

*Alex Bregman's 18th career postseason home run moves him into a tie for 3rd in franchise history with Carlos Correa. He needs one more to tie George Springer for 2nd. 

*Kyle Tucker got two hits in a postseason game since 2022 World Series Game 1.

*It was Ryan Pressly's first career postseason six-out save, and just the 2nd six-out save of his career. 

What To Watch, October 21

Everton @ Liverpool: 6:30am Central

Leeds United @ Norwich: 9am

Penn State @ Ohio State: 11am

Arsenal @ Chelsea: 11:30am

Tennessee @ Alabama: 2:30pm

Texas @ Houston: 3pm

Washington @ Montreal: 6pm

Utah @ USC: 7pm

*A Musical Selection:

Saturday Morning Hot Links

The Homestros struck again. After almost literally destroying the Rangers' will earlier in the week, the Astros reminded the fans to not get too excited. I'd like them to figure it out. Houston is 80-62 in 2023 - 35-35 at home. More on that in a minute. The Mariners and Rangers also lost. Toronto won.

*AL Playoff Picture:

1. Baltimore (89-51)

2. Houston (80-62)

3. Minnesota (74-67)

4. Tampa (86-56)

5. Seattle (79-62)

6. Toronto (78-63)

-

7. Balch Springs (76-64): +1.5

*AL West Odds (and Change from Yesterday)

FanGraphs:

Houston: 62.7% (+0.5%)

Seattle: 34.0% (-0.6%)

Balch Springs: 3.3% (+0.1%)

Baseball-Reference:

Houston: 62.2%

Seattle: 32.0%

Balch Springs: 5.8%

NL Wild Card Update:

1. Philadelphia (77-63): +4.0

2. Chicago (76-66): +2.0

3. Arizona (74-68): -

4. Miami (73-68): -0.5

5. Cincinnati (73-70): -1.5

6. San Francisco (71-70): -2.5

The Game

Blake Snell:

I know how good they are and I know how I've done against them in the past and I knew what I needed to do today. Definitely happy with how I pitched today.

Houston at home, All-Star Break to August 13: 7-4

August 14-since, Houston, at Minue Maid Park: 2-9. 

Houston has lost six straight games at home. Last 11 games at home:

Yainer Diaz: .395/.409/.698

Alex Bregman: .333/.429/.500

Mauricio Dubon: .321/.345/.536

Yordan Alvarez: .296/.474/.296

Jeremy Pena: .282/.333/.410

Jose Altuve: .237/.275/.263

Chas McCormick: .222/.243/.389

Jose Abreu: .167/.250/.444

Martin Maldonado: .160/.160/.320

Kyle Tucker: .156/.194/.281

Yordan, Altuve, and Tucker have combined for three extra-base hits in their last 11 home games. 

*Houston Astros, Away, 2023: .268/.339/.462, 118 home runs.

Houston Astros, Home, 2023: .251/.325/.407, 78 home runs.

*Astros home runs at Balch Springs, September 4-6, 2023: 16

Astros home runs at Minute Maid, August 1-present: 16

*Chandler Rome: What's up with the home record? The batter's eye may be to blame.

*Kyle Tucker was 0x4. Since his 3HR game on July 21, Tucker: .253/.359/.474. He has one home run in his last 73 PAs, last night was his 10th straight game without a home run, and six straight without an extra-base hit. 

*Hunter Brown: 4.1IP, 6H/6ER, 5K:2BB. Outs recorded, starts, 2023:

6: 1

8: 1

9: 1

12: 2

13: 3

14: 3

15: 1

16: 1

17: 2

18: 7

21: 5

So that's 12 starts of 15 outs or fewer (and each of his last five starts) and 15 starts of 16 outs or more. Maldonado:

I think he threw a couple good innings. I feel like maybe he was rushing a little bit with men on base, trying to be quicker to the plate. I feel like that's when he lost kind of the strike zone. A couple unlucky hits that they got, especially in the second inning.

Expected Batting Average, base hits, Padres, 2nd Inning:

Machado: .600 (109.1mph single)

Campusano: .960 (91.2mph single)

Grisham: .460 (61.5mph single)

Kim: .170 (79.5mph single)

Brown:

Obviously, it's really frustrating. I thought I made some good pitches there...To Grisham, I thought I made a pretty good pitch. It was probably two inches away from falling in Pena's glove. I think all that kind of stuff compounded and they were able to put four runs up.

Other Stuff

*[A locker room office]

DUSTY BAKER: Chas! McCormick! Get your ass in here.

CHAS MCCORMICK: [trots in on the hop] Yeah, skip?

BAKER: If anyone asks, I never said you're fat.

MCCORMICK: Huh?

BAKER: God dang it, kid, I said [stubs out cigar] if anyone asks any questions regarding your weight, it didn't come from me.

MCCORMICK: But you're the first one to even bring this up?

BAKER: GET THE HELL OUT OF MY OFFICE, MCCORMICK

MCCORMICK: [backs out, confused. He slowly turns toward the door]

BAKER: [under his breath] fatass. 

MCCORMICK: [spins around] what?!

BAKER: [screaming] I BRING YOU BANANA PUDDING EVERY WEEK! GET OUT!

*Here's a good article from The Athletic's Cody Stavenhagen, who spent a series embedded with the Mariners. Also: George Kirby is a PAB.

*Adolis Garcia has a strained patellar tendon, and may be out for the season. He's hitting .244/.322/.494 with 34HR/100RBI for the Rangers.

What To Read, September 9

*More than 1,000 people have been killed after an earthquake in Morocco.

*Marcelo Bielsa is making it easy again in Uruguay.

*"Stop Making Sense" is back.

*Texas Monthly: My brief career as a paid pro-Paxton propagandist.

*Ben Kweller is playing through the pain.

What To Watch, September 9

England @ Ukraine: 11am Central

Utah @ Baylor: 11am 

Nebraska @ Colorado: 11am (Fox)

Diamondbacks @ Cubs: 1:20pm 

Texas A&M @ Miami

Mariners @ Rays: 3:05pm

USMNT vs Uzbekistan: 4:30pm (TNT)

SMU @ OU: 5pm

Marlins @ Phillies: 5:05pm

Cardinals @ Reds: 5:40pm

Texas @ Alabama: 6pm

Houston @ Rice: 6pm (NFL Network)

A's @ Rangers: 6:05pm

Padres @ Astros: 6:10pm

*A Musical Selection: