Wednesday, July 20, 2016

2016 Astros Trade Deadline: Targets - Round 1

I recently wrote about the Astros team needs for this upcoming trade deadline. The conclusion is that the Astros need to improve the offense and could use another starter to slot into game one or two of a playoff series. The offense could improve with a call up of Yulieski Gurriel and Alex Bregman. The pitching could also improve with a call up of Joe Musgrove or a move to the rotation for Feliz. The concern with these moves is a lack of experience. These moves could be made with little return.

With that in mind lets explore the players with a more solid track record that the team could target in a trade. Lets start by looking at players on the wish list of Astros fans.

Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman

I will be using ERA+ throughout this article.

What Dustin is referring to is the Astros going after Andrew Miller hard in the free agent market prior to the 2015 season. They offered him four years and $40 million. He decided to sign with the New York Yankees for four years and $36 million, cause Yankees. It appears the tables have turned and it's the Astros looking to improve their ballclub for a playoff run. While the Yankees are looking to sell.

This season Andrew Miller has 329 ERA+. For reference, Will Harris has a 261 ERA+. Miller has been really good for the Yankees this year. The reason why he only has seven saves is because the Yankees also have Aroldis Chapman saving games. He and his 194 ERA+ may also be available. Both guys are lefties. Which makes them an even better fit for the bullpen. Miller is a free agent after the 2018 season. Chapman is a free agent after the 2016 season.

Price: I would expect something similar to the Ken Giles trade. The Astros traded Mark Appel, Harold Arauz, Thomas Eshelman, Brett Oberholtzer, and Vincent Velasquez to the Philadelphia Phillies for Giles.

Chris Archer

I've had a man crush on Chris Archer since the playoffs last year. He was an absolute joy to listen to while contribution to a playoff game broadcast last year.

On the field he hasn't been as good this year. He has an 88 ERA+ this year. Which is well below his career 108 ERA+. He's still striking out 10+ batters per nine innings. As some of his numbers normalize that ERA+ should rise. Archer is under contract for about $20 million through 2019. He has two team options for 2020 and 2021 at $9 million and $11 million respectively.

Price: He'll be expensive. Probably more so than a Miller or Chapman. Still I would happily give up Alex Bregman to add Archer to the rotation. And I love me some Alex Bregman. 

Trevor Bauer

This is an interesting one. I'm not sure Bauer is available with the Indians leading their division. I love a good out of left field trade idea. Lets dive in.

Bauer, if he is available, has a 140 ERA+ and doesn't become a free agent until 2021. He's been in and out of the rotation and there are some character issue rumors surrounding him. If he has finally figured it out, Bauer could be the type of guy that fits into the Astros top of the rotation now and in the future.

Price: The lack of a strong track record means the cost will be lower than the other pitchers mentioned above. He will still require a strong offer for the Indians to even think about trading him. Maybe the Astros can offer some of the big league ready talent waiting for an opportunity in AAA.

Carlos Beltran


Leave your player suggestions in the comment section.


Michael Carder said...

I feel like a broken record, as in, we STILL need that ninth inning stopper. I don't understand the "no sense of urgency" thing from Luhnow. I love me some Will Harris, but he is not a closer. Hinch is absurdly loyal and will stand by his players (as he should), but he should be demanding a real closer. Last nights game is proof. I wouldn't sell the farm for Miller, but I'd certainly sell the corn fields and my tractor..


Chas R said...

I am still firmly in the camp of prioritizing a top of the rotation SP. I agree that Gurriel and Bregman are likely to help the offense, so I don't see a need for another bat, unless we plan to sit Gomez... which I don't think they are willing to do.

Trevor Bauer would be awesome, but not realistic given the Indians playoff intentions. More realistically, Santana will be available from the Twins and possibly at a reasonable price in prospects, but he has a hefty contract with 2 years left, and we know how the Astros feel about that... If the Braves are willing to move Teheran, he would be an awesome pickup.

John Martin said...

Fister may have been our best starter at this point, but I don't think anyone is really excited at the prospect of him starting a playoff game. Teheran seems like the best available option but after the Gomez and Giles deals, I'm not thrilled with giving up that kind of return a 3rd time in the span of a year. Same goes for Archer.

Chapman's contract status makes him the most appealing potential pickup to me. The Yankees didn't invest a lot in prospects for him so as long as they can come out ahead you have to think they're going to deal him. When rumors about trades for Miller have surfaced in the past year, there's been reports that he specifically didn't want to be traded to Houston. If true, I wouldn't want him here.

Bregman and Gurriel are going to be the additions on offense so I can't see trading for a bat, though booing Beltran on a daily basis would be good fun. ;)

While I loved watching Go Go during his peak with the Brewers, it's really not fun to watch him flail around at the plate anymore. I'd be interested in seeing if we could trade him+cash for another team's comp pick in next year's draft if that's even feasible. Ultimately we probably end up with a Go Go/Colby platoon in CF down the stretch but I'd much rather it be Jake/Colby.

DaddyO said...

I threw up in my mouth a little when you said trade Bregman

Jason Thibodeaux said...

For the love of everything holly, call up hoyt!

Jason Thibodeaux said...

For the love of everything holly, call up hoyt!

Lucas Levin said...

It's really a complicated situation the Astros are in. They have a really good team with some elite players. When it comes to pitching, we do not have Elite players. Keuchal is getting better again, but there is no guarantee. I'm not sure I would trade a lot of prospects for a pitcher unless I could control him for a while AND he would have to be an elite top arm.

If we want to be good for a long time we need top tier pitchers that are 1's or 2's. We can not trot out a bunch of 4's and 5's and expect to make the playoffs for years to come.

Anonymous said...

Beltran to DH for the rest of the season is actually an excellent idea. A proven postseason producer who brings gravitas to the dugout. Plus, he is Correa's idol, and that dynamic would only help the clubhouse.