Take a look at the Single-Season leaders in Batting Average. Go ahead, we'll wait. Maybe you're lazy, and don't want to. So allow us to do some copying and pasting:
1. Hugh Duffy - .440 - 1894
2. Tip O'Neill - .435 - 1887
3. Ross Barnes - .429 - 1876
4. Nap Lajoie - .427 - 1901
5. Willie Keeler - .424 - 1897
6. Rogers Hornsby - .424 - 1924
7. George Sisler - .420 - 1922
8. Ty Cobb - .420 - 1911
9. Tuck Turner - .418 - 1894
10. Sam Thompson - .415 - 1894
Of the top 10 highest batting averages recorded in a single season, six of them came before 1900, and eight of them before 1920. What is your initial reaction? Something along the lines of, "Yeah, but that was the Dead Ball Era?"
It's widely accepted to be a unique period in baseball history. Of those ten players, seven are in the Hall of Fame (Tip O'Neill, Ross Barnes, and Tuck Turner aren't). O'Neill is the only one who would actually be eligible for the Hall of Fame as the other two didn't play ten seasons.
If you're thinking, "The game was just different back then," you would be absolutely correct. If you are a proponent of the Hall of Fame and what it stands for, then you look at the above numbers and qualify it for what it is - an era in history which took on a different dimension, and has since evolved.
We don't study world history and think, "21st century civilization is bullcrap, because they all had FourSquare and Twitter and whatnot. Telegraphs: That's when civilization was pure."
Another table, if you will, and I bet you can guess what it represents:
1. Barry Bonds - 73 - 2001
2. Mark McGwire - 70 - 1998
3. Sammy Sosa - 66 - 1998
4. Mark McGwire - 65 - 1999
5. Sammy Sosa - 64 - 2001
6. Sammy Sosa - 63 - 1999
7. Roger Maris - 61 - 1961
8. Babe Ruth - 60 - 1927
9. Babe Ruth - 59 - 1921
10. Jimmie Foxx (and Hank Greenberg, Ryan Howard, and Mark McGwire) - 58 - 1932, 1938, 2006, 1997
Yes, seven of the ten seasons with the most home runs came within a five-year span (1997-2001). So, it's been labeled the Steroid Era. But does it not just mean that the game took on a different dimension from those that came before it? Does the availability of technology (medicinal and otherwise) change the fact that 1994-2004(-ish) was a different time in the game?
Or is it because, this time, writers are accountable for their own actions? Bernie Miklasz has an excellent column today in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. An excerpt:
We're many of the same voters who looked the other way and glorified McGwire — godded him up, really — when he was filling those stadiums, creating excitement and selling extra newspaper copies in the late 1990s. The struggling print-news industry needed a boost, and McGwire was our performance-enhancing story. His muscle drove home runs and single-copy sales.
And what proud, card-carrying member of the BBWAA wants to be reminded of that now? We've found religion on the steroids issue, and it is never too late to convert.
That's a remarkable piece of accountability and journalism.
Had the Steroid Era happened (if you don't count amphetamines) in the late 1800s, how many of the BBWAA would be writing "If Ring Lardner had any balls at all, then he would have..." articles?
At our favorite Phillies blog, Crashburn Alley, they have a post on boycotting the Hall of Fame, and it's a poignant and interesting read. But I still can't see holding the Hall of Fame responsible for how the voters choose their candidates. Think of it in terms of American Idol. That show sucks, and I haven't watched it in years, because people are - collectively - stupid ("One of us is not as dumb as all of us" mentality) . If, in your mind, the Hall of Fame should become like American Idol, it's certainly your prerogative.
We just shouldn't be so shocked that the BBWAA is collectively ignorant (you know how hard it is to get 75% of 581 people to agree on anything?), and to take it out on the institution that has nothing to do with how the BBWAA votes (aside from refraining to guide their choices) and makes the voters figure out for themselves who best represents the era - whether that era encompasses using rolled up socks for a ball, or performance-enhancing drugs - isn't fair.
The Steroid Era doesn't need an asterisk. It's a walking asterisk, just like the Dead Ball Era.
We didn't come out here to play tiddlywinks, son.
-Hal Smith
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
And from Bagwell himself
Click to read Alyson Footer's post on the Bagwell press conference, but you can tell from the pull that he still knows how to get in that batting stance:
On whether or not he finds the suspicion of PEDs offensive?:
"Not one bit. Someone from Toronto's obviously not going to know a thing about me. That's going to happen in this era. The suspicion is ridiculous...just because I worked out? I mean, come on. But it doesn't bother me. I knew this was going to happen. Whatever happens, happens."
On whether or not he finds the suspicion of PEDs offensive?:
"Not one bit. Someone from Toronto's obviously not going to know a thing about me. That's going to happen in this era. The suspicion is ridiculous...just because I worked out? I mean, come on. But it doesn't bother me. I knew this was going to happen. Whatever happens, happens."
Reaction to Bagwell's HOF voting
So let's do a little Twitter round-up of the reaction to Bagwell's 41.7% showing:
Brian McTaggart (quoting Brad Ausmus):
"I think he'll get in eventually and I think he deserves to get in."
Buster Olney:
Jeff Bagwell's vote percentage is stunningly low for someone who clearly has Hall of Fame numbers -- but tied to no evidence of PED use.
Zach Levine:
Bagwell total should rise next year. Saw with Alomar what a huge number of first-ballot "protectionists" there still are.
Alyson Footer:
Disappointing day for Astros fans, but not terribly surprising. A 41% showing in first year is very, very encouraging.
Brian McTaggart (quoting Brad Ausmus):
"I think he'll get in eventually and I think he deserves to get in."
Buster Olney:
Jeff Bagwell's vote percentage is stunningly low for someone who clearly has Hall of Fame numbers -- but tied to no evidence of PED use.
Zach Levine:
Bagwell total should rise next year. Saw with Alomar what a huge number of first-ballot "protectionists" there still are.
Alyson Footer:
Disappointing day for Astros fans, but not terribly surprising. A 41% showing in first year is very, very encouraging.
Bagwell will resume his candidacy in 2012
Congratulations to Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven for their election to the Hall of fame.
Our boy Bagwell got 41.7% of the vote - the highest for a first-ballot showing since last year, when Alomar got over 73% - and UPDATE Barry Larkin, who got 51.6% of the vote in 2010.
Other than Alomar (and Larkin), Bagwell has the highest percentage since Ryne Sandberg, with 49.2% (in 2003), of eligible candidates who did not get in on their first ballot.
Every first-ballot candidate since 1993 who received over 40% (Sandberg, Fisk, Carter, Sutton, Niekro) got in - except for Steve Garvey, who received 41.6% of the vote and had his 15 years (peaking on his 3rd ballot in 1995 with 42.6%) before falling off the ballot, and is waiting on the Veterans Committee, I suppose. Larkin saw an 11% bump in voting in this, his second year on the ballot.
Our boy Bagwell got 41.7% of the vote - the highest for a first-ballot showing since last year, when Alomar got over 73% - and UPDATE Barry Larkin, who got 51.6% of the vote in 2010.
Other than Alomar (and Larkin), Bagwell has the highest percentage since Ryne Sandberg, with 49.2% (in 2003), of eligible candidates who did not get in on their first ballot.
Every first-ballot candidate since 1993 who received over 40% (Sandberg, Fisk, Carter, Sutton, Niekro) got in - except for Steve Garvey, who received 41.6% of the vote and had his 15 years (peaking on his 3rd ballot in 1995 with 42.6%) before falling off the ballot, and is waiting on the Veterans Committee, I suppose. Larkin saw an 11% bump in voting in this, his second year on the ballot.
Tranzactionz!
The Astros made some moves over the last couple of weeks, according to Baseball America. Here are the ones that involve new information:
-Signed LHP Xavier Cedeno
Xavier Cedeno will be 25 in August, and has spent his entire career in the Rockies' system (drafted in the 31st Round of the 2004 draft). Cedeno didn't play in 2010, after being moved to the bullpen in 2009. In 47 appearances at Double-A, Cedeno has thrown 149.2IP, 172H/72ER, 77K:59BB, with a 4.56 ERA/1.54 WHIP.
This winter, he's playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, has made seven starts (12 appearances), and posted 32H/11ER, 31K:13BB (2.32 ERA/1.05 WHIP) for Carolina.
-Released RHP Leandro Cespedes, LHP Chris Blazek, LHP Angel Gonzalez, C Carlos Mojica, 2B German Duran, 2B Pedro Feliz.
Cespedes spent the majority of 2010 in Lancaster. Chris Blazek was suspended for something in 2010 after his return to Tri-City after being drafted in 2005. The other notable name on the list is German Duran, who was picked off waivers by the Astros in July 2009 from the Rangers. Ken Rosenthal at the time thought that Duran could figure into a utility role for the Astros long-term. I guess not.
-Signed LHP Xavier Cedeno
Xavier Cedeno will be 25 in August, and has spent his entire career in the Rockies' system (drafted in the 31st Round of the 2004 draft). Cedeno didn't play in 2010, after being moved to the bullpen in 2009. In 47 appearances at Double-A, Cedeno has thrown 149.2IP, 172H/72ER, 77K:59BB, with a 4.56 ERA/1.54 WHIP.
This winter, he's playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, has made seven starts (12 appearances), and posted 32H/11ER, 31K:13BB (2.32 ERA/1.05 WHIP) for Carolina.
-Released RHP Leandro Cespedes, LHP Chris Blazek, LHP Angel Gonzalez, C Carlos Mojica, 2B German Duran, 2B Pedro Feliz.
Cespedes spent the majority of 2010 in Lancaster. Chris Blazek was suspended for something in 2010 after his return to Tri-City after being drafted in 2005. The other notable name on the list is German Duran, who was picked off waivers by the Astros in July 2009 from the Rangers. Ken Rosenthal at the time thought that Duran could figure into a utility role for the Astros long-term. I guess not.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Tyler Kepner = New Hero
Tyler Kepner's NY Times article is well-worth a read. Your money quote:
Maybe Jeff Bagwell took steroids, maybe not. Bagwell played most of his career before testing, but so did everybody else who has ever appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot.
As far as I can tell, the only thing Bagwell is guilty of is playing in an era when his union fought against cleaning up the game. The legacy of that shameful stance is that baseless suspicion may now keep some deserving players, like Bagwell, out of the Hall of Fame.
Maybe Jeff Bagwell took steroids, maybe not. Bagwell played most of his career before testing, but so did everybody else who has ever appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot.
As far as I can tell, the only thing Bagwell is guilty of is playing in an era when his union fought against cleaning up the game. The legacy of that shameful stance is that baseless suspicion may now keep some deserving players, like Bagwell, out of the Hall of Fame.
Jayson Stark perpetuates the oh-so-vicious cycle
Jayson Stark's new column on ESPN has a high Whining Rate about the madness of voting for inductees into the Hall of Fame (to his credit, he does vote in Bagwell):
Now, the performance-enhancing-drug disaster has officially crashed into the laps of those of us who vote this way. We live in an age when nobody who has been connected with, or even suspected of, PED use is getting elected. And if my fellow voters want to take that stand, that's their right.
But if the people in Cooperstown, the people who run the Hall of Fame, want to continue to sit back and avoid taking any stand on this issue for the rest of time, they'd better understand what that means.
Are they fans of empty podiums? Are they worried about holding induction days with no inductees to honor? Are they prepared to start throwing players out of the Hall of Fame -- players who may be linked to PED use after they've gotten elected?
All those possibilities hover over Hall of Fame voting for the next quarter century unless the folks in Cooperstown figure out how they want to deal with the mess that the steroids era is about to make of their heretofore-hallowed institution.
I hope they're wise enough to see where this is leading. I hope they're enlightened enough to take some sort of stand. But in the meantime, for voters like me, the PED nightmare is only making a mess of my ballot.
Can we stop and dab a tear at our leg for Stark? First of all, the Hall of Fame has nothing to do with the actual election of the eligible nominees. Take this quote from Hall of Fame President Jeff Idelson:
"We don't elect. We induct. It's really a question for the voters."
This was in reference to the Barry Bonds exhibit in 2007. Nobody from the Hall of Fame pressures a voter. Nobody from the Hall of Fame has a vote. Would the Hall of Fame like there to be an Induction every year? Absolutely. Having just been to Cooperstown, I can't imagine what NOT having an Induction would do to the local economy. But to pass the problem of how you're going to vote off to the Hall of Fame is the same kind of "Don't-want-to-be-responsible" thinking that led the reporters and voters to this point in the first place.
Everybody contributed to the mess that is your ballot, Stark. It's not anybody else's problem, anymore. You got into this business to have the last word, so stand up and have the last word. Don't blame the Hall of Fame - who might have the least to do with the "steroid problem" in baseball - for messing up your morals and ideals. Those should have been sorted out a long time ago.
Now, the performance-enhancing-drug disaster has officially crashed into the laps of those of us who vote this way. We live in an age when nobody who has been connected with, or even suspected of, PED use is getting elected. And if my fellow voters want to take that stand, that's their right.
But if the people in Cooperstown, the people who run the Hall of Fame, want to continue to sit back and avoid taking any stand on this issue for the rest of time, they'd better understand what that means.
Are they fans of empty podiums? Are they worried about holding induction days with no inductees to honor? Are they prepared to start throwing players out of the Hall of Fame -- players who may be linked to PED use after they've gotten elected?
All those possibilities hover over Hall of Fame voting for the next quarter century unless the folks in Cooperstown figure out how they want to deal with the mess that the steroids era is about to make of their heretofore-hallowed institution.
I hope they're wise enough to see where this is leading. I hope they're enlightened enough to take some sort of stand. But in the meantime, for voters like me, the PED nightmare is only making a mess of my ballot.
Can we stop and dab a tear at our leg for Stark? First of all, the Hall of Fame has nothing to do with the actual election of the eligible nominees. Take this quote from Hall of Fame President Jeff Idelson:
"We don't elect. We induct. It's really a question for the voters."
This was in reference to the Barry Bonds exhibit in 2007. Nobody from the Hall of Fame pressures a voter. Nobody from the Hall of Fame has a vote. Would the Hall of Fame like there to be an Induction every year? Absolutely. Having just been to Cooperstown, I can't imagine what NOT having an Induction would do to the local economy. But to pass the problem of how you're going to vote off to the Hall of Fame is the same kind of "Don't-want-to-be-responsible" thinking that led the reporters and voters to this point in the first place.
Everybody contributed to the mess that is your ballot, Stark. It's not anybody else's problem, anymore. You got into this business to have the last word, so stand up and have the last word. Don't blame the Hall of Fame - who might have the least to do with the "steroid problem" in baseball - for messing up your morals and ideals. Those should have been sorted out a long time ago.
ESPN Ballot looks shaky for Bagwell
Credit Zach Levine with the link first, but ESPN asked 18 of their BBWAA voting members to show their ballot.
Bagwell got eight of the 18 votes with: Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Gordon Edes, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney, Brendan Roberts, Adam Rubin, and Jayson Stark voting for him.
Bagwell got eight of the 18 votes with: Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Gordon Edes, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney, Brendan Roberts, Adam Rubin, and Jayson Stark voting for him.
Yep, the Astros are pretty much done with these "roster moves"
McTaggart has an article from last night in which Ed Wade is apparently ready to roll the dice with what he's got.
Wade:
"At this point, we're pretty much in the mode of just getting ready for Spring Training. We've got arbitration issues we continue to deal with, and we'll continue to pay attention to other opportunities to improve that might present themselves, but by and large we're anxious to get to Spring Training and see where we are."
And then Wade calls out the likes of the Astros:
"But this year is going to be about guys hitting their marks. That means veteran players hitting their production in the past or younger guys building on numbers they produced a year ago.
"There's no reason to believe that's not going to happen."
Wade:
"At this point, we're pretty much in the mode of just getting ready for Spring Training. We've got arbitration issues we continue to deal with, and we'll continue to pay attention to other opportunities to improve that might present themselves, but by and large we're anxious to get to Spring Training and see where we are."
And then Wade calls out the likes of the Astros:
"But this year is going to be about guys hitting their marks. That means veteran players hitting their production in the past or younger guys building on numbers they produced a year ago.
"There's no reason to believe that's not going to happen."
Monday, January 3, 2011
The Astros County Power Rankings: January 3
Here's a little something we'll be doing throughout Spring Training and the season: rather than going with a traditional Power Ranking post every Monday morning, we're going to rank the Astros on a 1-25 system, with a pithy little blurb after each name. Will it be lusciously flawed like Megan Fox? Yes! Will it piss you off? Perhaps! Let's get going on this first Monday of 2011, and not do it again until Spring Training starts...
#1: Brett Myers
Can Myers improve on his 2010 as the ace of the staff? The key to an interesting August depends on it!
#2: Hunter Pence
Pence will have to step up and fill the offensive shoes of Carlos Lee, whom you won't see on this list until much, much later...
#3: Wandy Rodriguez
Which Wandy shows up in 2011? Early 2010 Wandy, who sucked and almost got traded, or Late 2010 Wandy, who was pretty dad gum great?
#4: Michael Bourn
Bourn has the defensive prowess and speed on the basepaths, but who gets to first base first: Bourn, or a 6th-grade tuba player on a band trip?
#5: Chris Johnson
I don't think any of us are expecting Johnson to hit .340 through 2011, but if he can hit within 60 points of it (on either side), we'll be happy.
#6: J.A. Happ
Showed up in the second half and provided solid, solid work. If he's that solid again (and everything goes right with Myers and Wandy), the Astros could have a solid core of 30-year old pitchers, peaking three years too late.
#7: Brandon Lyon
With the CL1 all his, will Lyon keep pitching like his role depended on it?
#8: Bud Norris
Will 2011 be the year that Norris comes into his own, and allows you to stop wondering if he'll walk, or strikeout, ten batters?
#9: Bill Hall
Ed Wade is betting Hall can provide some pop to the middle infield. Hitting 18HR last year, the most since hitting 35 in 2006, will certainly help...if he can stay healthy.
#10: Wilton Lopez
Should take over the 8th-inning if he can continue to dominate his command (5BB in 67IP in 2010).
#11: Clint Barmes
Sure, he's an offensive upgrade over Manzella, but is he worth the price?
#12: Brian Bogusevic
Two years ago, would you have imagined some fans clamoring for Bogusevic over $18.5m Carlos Lee?
#13: Fernando Abad
Had a decent showing in a handful of 2010 outings, and could feature in the SP5 spot.
#14: Brett Wallace
The Big Question Mark going into 2011. How his Spring Training goes depends on whether Bogusevic becomes an everyday player, and Carlos Lee becomes 1B1.
#15: Nelson Figueroa
Did alright as the 80-year old spot-starter/long relief guy in 2010, and could also figure in to the SP5 spot in 2011.
#16: Jason Castro
Buster Posey he's not (yet, anyway). How much patience will the Astros have with Castro?
#17: Wesley Wright
Once the Astros decide if he's going to be a starter or reliever, we'll be able to tell what kind of player he is.
#18: Angel Sanchez
Filled in admirably through Manzella's injury, but just doesn't have any pop.
#19: Carlos Lee
Lee's stock is waaay down, but he can't be moved thanks to that contract.
#20: Jason Michaels
He's good for a Ruthian week every season, and as a defensive replacement.
#21: Humberto Quintero
Established himself as Myers' personal catcher, but can't get on-base, or hit for power.
#22: Jeff Keppinger
The Astros have pretty much sunk Keppinger to this point, with talks with the Yankees breaking off at some point, Keppinger is looking up at playing time.
#23: Jason Bourgeois
Thought he might be able to do a little more at the plate, but just might spend 2011 in Oklahoma City.
#24: Jeff Fulchino
Injuries helped Fulchino take a step back in 2010 after a strong 2009.
#25: Tommy Manzella
Sucks to be here, but the Astros haven't done him many favors.
#1: Brett Myers
Can Myers improve on his 2010 as the ace of the staff? The key to an interesting August depends on it!
#2: Hunter Pence
Pence will have to step up and fill the offensive shoes of Carlos Lee, whom you won't see on this list until much, much later...
#3: Wandy Rodriguez
Which Wandy shows up in 2011? Early 2010 Wandy, who sucked and almost got traded, or Late 2010 Wandy, who was pretty dad gum great?
#4: Michael Bourn
Bourn has the defensive prowess and speed on the basepaths, but who gets to first base first: Bourn, or a 6th-grade tuba player on a band trip?
#5: Chris Johnson
I don't think any of us are expecting Johnson to hit .340 through 2011, but if he can hit within 60 points of it (on either side), we'll be happy.
#6: J.A. Happ
Showed up in the second half and provided solid, solid work. If he's that solid again (and everything goes right with Myers and Wandy), the Astros could have a solid core of 30-year old pitchers, peaking three years too late.
#7: Brandon Lyon
With the CL1 all his, will Lyon keep pitching like his role depended on it?
#8: Bud Norris
Will 2011 be the year that Norris comes into his own, and allows you to stop wondering if he'll walk, or strikeout, ten batters?
#9: Bill Hall
Ed Wade is betting Hall can provide some pop to the middle infield. Hitting 18HR last year, the most since hitting 35 in 2006, will certainly help...if he can stay healthy.
#10: Wilton Lopez
Should take over the 8th-inning if he can continue to dominate his command (5BB in 67IP in 2010).
#11: Clint Barmes
Sure, he's an offensive upgrade over Manzella, but is he worth the price?
#12: Brian Bogusevic
Two years ago, would you have imagined some fans clamoring for Bogusevic over $18.5m Carlos Lee?
#13: Fernando Abad
Had a decent showing in a handful of 2010 outings, and could feature in the SP5 spot.
#14: Brett Wallace
The Big Question Mark going into 2011. How his Spring Training goes depends on whether Bogusevic becomes an everyday player, and Carlos Lee becomes 1B1.
#15: Nelson Figueroa
Did alright as the 80-year old spot-starter/long relief guy in 2010, and could also figure in to the SP5 spot in 2011.
#16: Jason Castro
Buster Posey he's not (yet, anyway). How much patience will the Astros have with Castro?
#17: Wesley Wright
Once the Astros decide if he's going to be a starter or reliever, we'll be able to tell what kind of player he is.
#18: Angel Sanchez
Filled in admirably through Manzella's injury, but just doesn't have any pop.
#19: Carlos Lee
Lee's stock is waaay down, but he can't be moved thanks to that contract.
#20: Jason Michaels
He's good for a Ruthian week every season, and as a defensive replacement.
#21: Humberto Quintero
Established himself as Myers' personal catcher, but can't get on-base, or hit for power.
#22: Jeff Keppinger
The Astros have pretty much sunk Keppinger to this point, with talks with the Yankees breaking off at some point, Keppinger is looking up at playing time.
#23: Jason Bourgeois
Thought he might be able to do a little more at the plate, but just might spend 2011 in Oklahoma City.
#24: Jeff Fulchino
Injuries helped Fulchino take a step back in 2010 after a strong 2009.
#25: Tommy Manzella
Sucks to be here, but the Astros haven't done him many favors.
Bagwell's total = 35%?
Jay Jaffe at The Hardball Times has updated projections for Wednesday's Hall of Fame announcement, with Bagwell projecting to 35% of the ballots.
Jaffe:
Bagwell's the best candidate of the new crowd, but he has no chance to go in this year. Forget steroid gossip. It's just hard to go in the first year period. It's the nature of the process: over 500 people tallying their ballots individually and then mailing them in. The guys who make it in their first year need a special hook. It could be a big, glossy number: 3,000 hits, 300 wins, 500 homers. It could be a special distinction: best defensive shortstop ever, the ultimate closer, but they need some special hook to separate them from the "average" great candidate. You need something so that you could look at the guy for three seconds and decide he belongs.
Bagwell lacks that hook. He's the modern-day Johnny Mize: he could hit, slug, and draw walks, but he missed all the magic markers, and his career was too short. Bagwell's numbers were better because there was no WWII, and so he'll do better than Mize (who got into Cooperstown via the VC), but he lacks that hook.
Bagwell's candidacy reminds me a bit of Ryne Sandberg and Barry Larkin. They're not similar players, but both were clear Hall of Famers who got nowhere near 75 percent in their first go-around. Instead, they each finished at around 50 percent. If it wasn't for steroids, I'd put the over/under for Bagwell this year at 50 percent. Maybe a little higher, but around there. Toss in evidence-free steroid suspicion, and I have to mark him down a bit.
The good news for Bagwell fans: only twice has anyone debuted as well as I'm predicting for Bagwell and not subsequently made it into Cooperstown. One was Lee Smith, who is not only still on the ballot, but as a reliever the BBWAA doesn't know as much how to handle him. The other is Steve Garvey. They are the only ones to debut higher than 31 percent of the vote and not get in. (Next highest is Luis Tiant at 30.9 percent, then Maury Wills at 30.3 percent, and both of them could be eventual VC picks.)
What say you?
Jaffe:
Bagwell's the best candidate of the new crowd, but he has no chance to go in this year. Forget steroid gossip. It's just hard to go in the first year period. It's the nature of the process: over 500 people tallying their ballots individually and then mailing them in. The guys who make it in their first year need a special hook. It could be a big, glossy number: 3,000 hits, 300 wins, 500 homers. It could be a special distinction: best defensive shortstop ever, the ultimate closer, but they need some special hook to separate them from the "average" great candidate. You need something so that you could look at the guy for three seconds and decide he belongs.
Bagwell lacks that hook. He's the modern-day Johnny Mize: he could hit, slug, and draw walks, but he missed all the magic markers, and his career was too short. Bagwell's numbers were better because there was no WWII, and so he'll do better than Mize (who got into Cooperstown via the VC), but he lacks that hook.
Bagwell's candidacy reminds me a bit of Ryne Sandberg and Barry Larkin. They're not similar players, but both were clear Hall of Famers who got nowhere near 75 percent in their first go-around. Instead, they each finished at around 50 percent. If it wasn't for steroids, I'd put the over/under for Bagwell this year at 50 percent. Maybe a little higher, but around there. Toss in evidence-free steroid suspicion, and I have to mark him down a bit.
The good news for Bagwell fans: only twice has anyone debuted as well as I'm predicting for Bagwell and not subsequently made it into Cooperstown. One was Lee Smith, who is not only still on the ballot, but as a reliever the BBWAA doesn't know as much how to handle him. The other is Steve Garvey. They are the only ones to debut higher than 31 percent of the vote and not get in. (Next highest is Luis Tiant at 30.9 percent, then Maury Wills at 30.3 percent, and both of them could be eventual VC picks.)
What say you?
Statistical Look at Myers' 2010
MLB.com has a little article on what Myers' 2010 meant to the history books.
Baseball's Morality Police
Craig Calcattera at Hardball Talk has an excellent response to the LA Times' Ross Newhan's view of the role of the Hall of Fame voter:
“Somebody said we are not the morality police, but yet I think we are. If we aren’t, who is? Part of our job is that we are custodians of the game’s history.”
Calcattera:
The Hall of Fame is not heaven, my fellow baseball writers, you are not St. Peter at the gate, and no one — not even Jose Canseco — has written baseball’s book of life. Have a sense of humility about you. Understand that your role is not to be baseball’s moral arbiters, writ-large. You are to look at one player at a time and judge him accordingly. If you have nothing negative to say about him, and if his accomplishments are sufficient, vote him in.
Lovely!
“Somebody said we are not the morality police, but yet I think we are. If we aren’t, who is? Part of our job is that we are custodians of the game’s history.”
Calcattera:
The Hall of Fame is not heaven, my fellow baseball writers, you are not St. Peter at the gate, and no one — not even Jose Canseco — has written baseball’s book of life. Have a sense of humility about you. Understand that your role is not to be baseball’s moral arbiters, writ-large. You are to look at one player at a time and judge him accordingly. If you have nothing negative to say about him, and if his accomplishments are sufficient, vote him in.
Lovely!
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thank you for an excellent 2010
We here at Astros County want to thank you for a great 2010. We got burned out towards the end of the year, but are starting to feel rejuvenated and energized again. (Note: this section has been removed so as to not be SO 1996, a douche, or a wank.)
Thanks go out especially to The Crawfish Boxes, John Wessling, Deputy Street, Deputy Jason, Appy Astros, Fire Drayton, John Royal...
...And of course everyone who gives us material: Richard Justice, Zach Levine, Bernardo Fallas, Brian McTaggart, and Alyson Footer.
Thanks again.
Thanks go out especially to The Crawfish Boxes, John Wessling, Deputy Street, Deputy Jason, Appy Astros, Fire Drayton, John Royal...
...And of course everyone who gives us material: Richard Justice, Zach Levine, Bernardo Fallas, Brian McTaggart, and Alyson Footer.
Thanks again.
Bagwell Hall of Fame reaction roundup
Again, many apologies for the lack of updates over the past week. Between everyone's travel schedule and The Constable's pneumonia, it's been hard to find time to update. So let's do a big ol' Bagwell reaction update.
Bagwell himself:
"I never used [steroids], and I'll tell you exactly why: If I could hit between 30 and 40 home runs every year and drive in 120 runs, why did I need to do anything else? I was pretty happy with what I was doing, and that's the God's honest truth. All of a sudden guys were starting to hit 60 or 70 home runs and people were like, 'Dude, if you took [PEDs], you could do it too.' And I was like, 'I'm good where I'm at. I just want to do what I can do.'
"I wasn't trying to do anything crazy. I hit six homers in the minor leagues. Six home runs. I hit 15, 18 and 21 in Houston, and then I hit 39 in 1994 when I started working with Rudy Jaramillo and he helped me to understand my swing and I actually learned how to hit. And I was like, 'I don't need anything more. I'm good.' When I walked on the field I thought I was the best player on the field, and I didn't need anything more than that. It was never an ego thing with me, and I think at some point, it became ego to some people...
..."I'm so sick and tired of all the steroids crap, it's messed up my whole thinking on the subject. I hate to even use this word, but it's become almost like a 'buzz kill' for me. So much has gone on in the last eight or nine years, it's kind of taken some of the valor off it for me. If I ever do get to the Hall of Fame and there are 40 guys sitting behind me thinking, 'He took steroids,' then it's not even worth it to me. I don't know if that sounds stupid. But it's how I feel in a nutshell."
Jerry Crasnick:
Bagwell might have been a no-doubter for Hall induction if he had stayed healthy and tacked on two or three productive seasons at the end. But the relative brevity of his career and his 2,314 hits are likely to hurt his cause.
Still, for the voters who sift through the numbers and carefully measure his impact during 15 seasons in Houston, Bagwell merits a place in Cooperstown.
Joe Posnanski:
Bagwell, to me, looks like a first-ballot, slam-dunk, didn’t-have-to-think-twice Hall of Famer. His rare combination of power and speed (he’s the only first baseman to have a 30-homer, 30-stolen base season, and he did it twice) along with his solid defense (he won one Gold Glove, but was generally viewed year-in, year-out as a very good defender), along with his ability to get on base, along with his solid nature and spectacular peak makes him seem like the surest of sure things.
FanHouse's Dan Graziano:
No, I didn't vote for Jeff Bagwell for the Hall of Fame. Yes, it's for the reason everybody loves to hate. I don't know for sure that Bagwell took steroids or any other performance-enhancing drugs to help him attain his Hall of Fame-caliber numbers. I don't have evidence, like we do against Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. But I'm suspicious...
...This isn't about whether I believe what Bagwell says. It's about suspicions I harbored long before he spoke out on the issue. It's about where he played and when he played and the teammates with whom he played and a whole bunch of circumstantial evidence that I readily admit wouldn't hold up in a court of law.
But this isn't a court of law. This is a Hall of Fame vote. I don't need proof beyond a reasonable doubt in order to cast a vote for any candidate in either direction. I could refuse to vote for someone because I didn't like him personally, though I think that would be wrong. I could refuse to vote for somebody based on racial or ethnic or religious grounds, though I think that would be despicable. I could withhold a vote because I don't want people in the Hall of Fame who have blue eyes, or owned cats, or ever played on a Texas team. It's my vote, and the only standards to which I am beholden are my own."
Jeff Pearlman:
Perhaps, as dozens upon dozens of his teammates turned to steroids and HGH throughout the 1990s and early 2000s (Reality: No two teams in baseball had more PED connections than the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros), Bagwell looked the other way and continued to pop his GNC-supplied Vitamin C tablets. Maybe, just maybe, that happened. But, as the game was being ruined in his very clubhouse, where was Bagwell’s voice of protest? Where was Jeff Bagwell, one of the best players in baseball, when someone inside the game needed to speak out and demand accountability? Answer: Like nearly all of his peers, he was nowhere. He never uttered a word, never lifted a finger (Now, once he retired, he was more than willing to defend himself and speak up for the sport. Once he was retired).
This, to me, is why we are allowed to suspect Jeff Bagwell and, if we so choose, not vote for him.
(Note, Pearlman has a variety of call-and-response posts here). And he's right. If you're going to disagree with somebody, have some class. Don't be a douche. That extends here, too. Feel free to disagree with anything you read here, but don't be a complete sack of dog nuts about it.
-
Now, some reponse to Mr. Graziano, Mr. Pearlman, Mr. Knobler, and any other writer to won't vote for Bagwell based on their suspicions:
Again, starting with Joe Posnanski because, well, he deserves it:
I can’t even begin to describe my disgust...it makes me absolutely sick to my stomach. This is PRECISELY what I was talking about when I said how much I hate the character clause in the Hall of Fame voting. I think it encourages people to believe their own nonsense, to stand up on high and be judge and jury. It’s something that my friend Bill James calls the “I see it in his eyes” tripe. Bill has finished a book on crime — it is, he says, actually about crime books as much as crime — and one thing he kept running into in his research was people who claimed that they could pinpoint the murderer because “it was in their eyes.” Well, as Bill says, that’s a whole lot of garbage. Eyes are eyes. Some people look guilty when they’re innocent, and some people look innocent when they’re guilty, and most people don’t look innocent OR guilty except when we want to see that something in their eyes. Oh, but we love to believe we know. It’s one of the flaws of humanity. And the Hall of Fame character clause gives voters carte blanche to judge the eyes and hearts and souls of players.
I think my e-migo Craig Calcaterra has made this point on Twitter, but I’d like to also make it as strongly as I can: I’d rather a hundred steroid users were mistakenly voted into the Hall of Fame over keeping one non-user out.
Amazin' Avenue's James Kannengeiser:
If you withhold voting Jeff Bagwell for the Hall of Fame solely on the chance that he used performance enhancing drugs, then you are a piece of sanctimonious dogsh*t. Seriously, you are. The time for civility has passed. If you are unwilling to afford another human being the basic "innocent until proven guilty" right because you are a holier-than-thou windbag, then you are human feces. Dan Graziano, this is you. I'm embarrassed to have graduated from the same university as you...
...Acting like these Hall of Fame voters should be treated as nice people who have earned their right to vote is a load of nonsense. This isn't about sabermetrics vs. wins and RBIZZZ. It's about treating other human beings with some f*cking respect. The intelligent cases have been presented before all of these voters time and time again. If you don't vote for Bagwell, or someone similar, because you think he might have useds PEDs (but have no proof!) you are human garbage. Flat out. That's all I have to say about that.
There is simply no way to sum it up any better than that.
Bagwell himself:
"I never used [steroids], and I'll tell you exactly why: If I could hit between 30 and 40 home runs every year and drive in 120 runs, why did I need to do anything else? I was pretty happy with what I was doing, and that's the God's honest truth. All of a sudden guys were starting to hit 60 or 70 home runs and people were like, 'Dude, if you took [PEDs], you could do it too.' And I was like, 'I'm good where I'm at. I just want to do what I can do.'
"I wasn't trying to do anything crazy. I hit six homers in the minor leagues. Six home runs. I hit 15, 18 and 21 in Houston, and then I hit 39 in 1994 when I started working with Rudy Jaramillo and he helped me to understand my swing and I actually learned how to hit. And I was like, 'I don't need anything more. I'm good.' When I walked on the field I thought I was the best player on the field, and I didn't need anything more than that. It was never an ego thing with me, and I think at some point, it became ego to some people...
..."I'm so sick and tired of all the steroids crap, it's messed up my whole thinking on the subject. I hate to even use this word, but it's become almost like a 'buzz kill' for me. So much has gone on in the last eight or nine years, it's kind of taken some of the valor off it for me. If I ever do get to the Hall of Fame and there are 40 guys sitting behind me thinking, 'He took steroids,' then it's not even worth it to me. I don't know if that sounds stupid. But it's how I feel in a nutshell."
Jerry Crasnick:
Bagwell might have been a no-doubter for Hall induction if he had stayed healthy and tacked on two or three productive seasons at the end. But the relative brevity of his career and his 2,314 hits are likely to hurt his cause.
Still, for the voters who sift through the numbers and carefully measure his impact during 15 seasons in Houston, Bagwell merits a place in Cooperstown.
Joe Posnanski:
Bagwell, to me, looks like a first-ballot, slam-dunk, didn’t-have-to-think-twice Hall of Famer. His rare combination of power and speed (he’s the only first baseman to have a 30-homer, 30-stolen base season, and he did it twice) along with his solid defense (he won one Gold Glove, but was generally viewed year-in, year-out as a very good defender), along with his ability to get on base, along with his solid nature and spectacular peak makes him seem like the surest of sure things.
FanHouse's Dan Graziano:
No, I didn't vote for Jeff Bagwell for the Hall of Fame. Yes, it's for the reason everybody loves to hate. I don't know for sure that Bagwell took steroids or any other performance-enhancing drugs to help him attain his Hall of Fame-caliber numbers. I don't have evidence, like we do against Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. But I'm suspicious...
...This isn't about whether I believe what Bagwell says. It's about suspicions I harbored long before he spoke out on the issue. It's about where he played and when he played and the teammates with whom he played and a whole bunch of circumstantial evidence that I readily admit wouldn't hold up in a court of law.
But this isn't a court of law. This is a Hall of Fame vote. I don't need proof beyond a reasonable doubt in order to cast a vote for any candidate in either direction. I could refuse to vote for someone because I didn't like him personally, though I think that would be wrong. I could refuse to vote for somebody based on racial or ethnic or religious grounds, though I think that would be despicable. I could withhold a vote because I don't want people in the Hall of Fame who have blue eyes, or owned cats, or ever played on a Texas team. It's my vote, and the only standards to which I am beholden are my own."
Jeff Pearlman:
Perhaps, as dozens upon dozens of his teammates turned to steroids and HGH throughout the 1990s and early 2000s (Reality: No two teams in baseball had more PED connections than the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros), Bagwell looked the other way and continued to pop his GNC-supplied Vitamin C tablets. Maybe, just maybe, that happened. But, as the game was being ruined in his very clubhouse, where was Bagwell’s voice of protest? Where was Jeff Bagwell, one of the best players in baseball, when someone inside the game needed to speak out and demand accountability? Answer: Like nearly all of his peers, he was nowhere. He never uttered a word, never lifted a finger (Now, once he retired, he was more than willing to defend himself and speak up for the sport. Once he was retired).
This, to me, is why we are allowed to suspect Jeff Bagwell and, if we so choose, not vote for him.
(Note, Pearlman has a variety of call-and-response posts here). And he's right. If you're going to disagree with somebody, have some class. Don't be a douche. That extends here, too. Feel free to disagree with anything you read here, but don't be a complete sack of dog nuts about it.
-
Now, some reponse to Mr. Graziano, Mr. Pearlman, Mr. Knobler, and any other writer to won't vote for Bagwell based on their suspicions:
Again, starting with Joe Posnanski because, well, he deserves it:
I can’t even begin to describe my disgust...it makes me absolutely sick to my stomach. This is PRECISELY what I was talking about when I said how much I hate the character clause in the Hall of Fame voting. I think it encourages people to believe their own nonsense, to stand up on high and be judge and jury. It’s something that my friend Bill James calls the “I see it in his eyes” tripe. Bill has finished a book on crime — it is, he says, actually about crime books as much as crime — and one thing he kept running into in his research was people who claimed that they could pinpoint the murderer because “it was in their eyes.” Well, as Bill says, that’s a whole lot of garbage. Eyes are eyes. Some people look guilty when they’re innocent, and some people look innocent when they’re guilty, and most people don’t look innocent OR guilty except when we want to see that something in their eyes. Oh, but we love to believe we know. It’s one of the flaws of humanity. And the Hall of Fame character clause gives voters carte blanche to judge the eyes and hearts and souls of players.
I think my e-migo Craig Calcaterra has made this point on Twitter, but I’d like to also make it as strongly as I can: I’d rather a hundred steroid users were mistakenly voted into the Hall of Fame over keeping one non-user out.
Amazin' Avenue's James Kannengeiser:
If you withhold voting Jeff Bagwell for the Hall of Fame solely on the chance that he used performance enhancing drugs, then you are a piece of sanctimonious dogsh*t. Seriously, you are. The time for civility has passed. If you are unwilling to afford another human being the basic "innocent until proven guilty" right because you are a holier-than-thou windbag, then you are human feces. Dan Graziano, this is you. I'm embarrassed to have graduated from the same university as you...
...Acting like these Hall of Fame voters should be treated as nice people who have earned their right to vote is a load of nonsense. This isn't about sabermetrics vs. wins and RBIZZZ. It's about treating other human beings with some f*cking respect. The intelligent cases have been presented before all of these voters time and time again. If you don't vote for Bagwell, or someone similar, because you think he might have useds PEDs (but have no proof!) you are human garbage. Flat out. That's all I have to say about that.
There is simply no way to sum it up any better than that.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Minor League Ball's preliminary prospect list
One of our favorite prospect blogs, Minor League Ball, has posted its preliminary Top 20 prospect list.
Here are the Top 10, you'll have to click it to get the next 10:
1) Jordan Lyles
2) Delino DeShields
3) Mike Foltynewicz
4) Austin Wates
5) J.D. Martinez
6) Tanner Bushue
7) Aneury Rodriguez
8) Mark Melancon
9) Jonathan Villar
10) Jimmy Paredes
Interesting that Rule 5 pick Anuery Rodriguez is now our 7th-best prospect. And all of these come in on the Ed Wade tenure.
Here are the Top 10, you'll have to click it to get the next 10:
1) Jordan Lyles
2) Delino DeShields
3) Mike Foltynewicz
4) Austin Wates
5) J.D. Martinez
6) Tanner Bushue
7) Aneury Rodriguez
8) Mark Melancon
9) Jonathan Villar
10) Jimmy Paredes
Interesting that Rule 5 pick Anuery Rodriguez is now our 7th-best prospect. And all of these come in on the Ed Wade tenure.
MLB Network to show us the greatest moment in Chris Burke's life
Just as a heads-up, MLB Network will be re-airing Game 4 of the 2005 NLDS against the Braves. Perhaps you remember Chris Burke's 18th Inning homer? Or perhaps you remember that Luke Scott came about 15" from being the hero in the 11th (or was it the 12th) inning? Or perhaps you remember that Brad Ausmus was given a homer to tie it up in the 9th that shouldn't have counted?
Regardless, tune in to the MLB Network tomorrow (Wednesday) night at 9pm Eastern to watch a (hopefully) abbreviated re-airing of this classic game in their "MLB Network Countdown: Games of the Decade, 2000-2009" series.
Regardless, tune in to the MLB Network tomorrow (Wednesday) night at 9pm Eastern to watch a (hopefully) abbreviated re-airing of this classic game in their "MLB Network Countdown: Games of the Decade, 2000-2009" series.
Call to the Pen examines Bobby Doran
The Call to the Pen blog took themselves a look at Astros prospect (2010 4th Round draft pick) Bobby Doran:
With his size and already above-average fastball command, he’s got a chance to be a back of the rotation innings eater. With some mechanical tweaks and instruction he should be able to add a bit more velocity to his fastball which was topping out at about 94 prior to the draft. If he can add that velocity and maintain the natural movement of the pitch he could turn into a viable #3 starter. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats currently, but his curve and changeup are both legitimate offerings that would be augmented with an improved fastball. Doran strikes me as the type of guy who could take a big step forward in 2011.
In my book he’s a #3 at best (and that is optimistic) and a middle reliever at worst, but either way I think he makes it to the major leagues with the Astros if he stays healthy.
With his size and already above-average fastball command, he’s got a chance to be a back of the rotation innings eater. With some mechanical tweaks and instruction he should be able to add a bit more velocity to his fastball which was topping out at about 94 prior to the draft. If he can add that velocity and maintain the natural movement of the pitch he could turn into a viable #3 starter. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats currently, but his curve and changeup are both legitimate offerings that would be augmented with an improved fastball. Doran strikes me as the type of guy who could take a big step forward in 2011.
In my book he’s a #3 at best (and that is optimistic) and a middle reliever at worst, but either way I think he makes it to the major leagues with the Astros if he stays healthy.
If Peter Gammons writes it, it must be true
Despite his truly-bizarre Twitter account, I love Peter Gammons. It's actually because of his truly-bizarre Twitter account that I love him as much as I do. So when Peter Gammons says Bagwell is a Hall of Famer, then chalk it up.
It's a great article (for obvious reasons), and here's your close:
If Bagwell doesn't make it on the first ballot, then it may be time to ask: Have we spent so much time trying to find off-field guilt that we've stopped watching and enjoying the game and created a hall of victims of that game's circumstances?
It's a great article (for obvious reasons), and here's your close:
If Bagwell doesn't make it on the first ballot, then it may be time to ask: Have we spent so much time trying to find off-field guilt that we've stopped watching and enjoying the game and created a hall of victims of that game's circumstances?
Astros County's Hall of Fame ballot
Not that we have a vote - obtaining a BBWAA Hall of Fame vote isn't easy (you must have covered baseball for ten years just to vote) - but since we feel bad for not having been around much for the past week or so, like a father who has a whole other family on Long Island, we feel like we owe it to you to post who we feel should be in the Hall of Fame. Remember, BBWAA voters can only list ten players on the ballot. Here are ours:
Roberto Alomar
In addition to getting over 2700 hits in his 17-season career, Alomar was the preeminent defensive 2B, posting a .984 Fld% in 2320 games (3rd most of all time). He was a 12-time All-Star in a system where you have to be well-known in order to make the team, and finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting five times. He won ten Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers, to finish with a .300/.371/.443 slash line.
Jeff Bagwell
Do we really need to go over this again?
Bert Blyleven
Bert's 90.1 WAR is the highest among anybody still eligible for the Hall of Fame, and it's a shame that he has had to wait this long. There has been one constant statistic in baseball for pitchers, and that is strikeouts. And Blyleven has 3701 of them - 5th all-time - and he finished in the Top 5 in strikeouts 13 times. No, he does not have 300 wins. Blyleven has a 287-250 record, but started 685 games. That means that Blyleven got 148 No Decisions. In those No Decisions (seven of which came in a relief situation), Blyeleven posted a 3.90 ERA / 1.37 WHIP. If even a third of those games go his way, Blyleven finishes his career with 336 wins. He was a victim of his offense as much as anything - from 1971 to 1974 Blyleven was 70-66, despite a 2.67 ERA / 1.13 WHIP. Yes, he's a Hall of Famer.
Barry Larkin
Over 19 seasons, Larkin was an integral piece to the Cincinnati Reds, and that should count for something. In 2180 games, Larkin hit .295/.371/.444 (with a lot of that at Riverfront Stadium), made 12 All-Star teams, nine Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, and was the 1995 MVP. He drew more walks than strikeouts twelve times, and never struck out more than 69 times. In 2085 games at SS, Larkin posted a .975 Fld%.
Edgar Martinez
At some point, people are going to have to realize that the Hall will have to expand to allow for how the game has changed (see: Miller, Marvin; Smith, Lee). Closers and Designated Hitters - for better or worse - are a part of the game, and excellence at those positions has to be recognized. Edgar, despite his status as the game's first pure DH, finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting twice, and his OBP (.418) ranks 22nd All-Time. His .933 OPS is 35th All-Time. This includes a 1995 season in which Edgar hit .356/.479/.628 for a 185 OPS+ and a 1.107 OPS (and somehow finished behind Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle for AL MVP). From 1992-2001, Edgar hit .325/.435/.993 with an OPS+ of 159, and had an OPS over 1.000 five times. That is some dominant hitting over the course of a 10-year span.
Tim Raines
There has to be some form of "If X is in, then Y deserves consideration." But I subscribe to the theory that, just because the Veterans Committee elected their buddies for 20 years doesn't mean the BBWAA has to be as stupid as them. Because Frankie Frisch is in the Hall of Fame shouldn't affect any other player like him. That said, if Rickey Henderson is in (rightfully), Tim Raines should be in, as well. Raines was effective with the bat, hitting .294/.385/.425, but he could steal bases. Over 23 seasons, the last six of which saw him play in over 100 games just once, Raines averaged 52 stolen bases. His 808 stolen bases are 5th All-Time, and with getting caught just 146 times, he posted an 84.6% success rate. He made seven straight All-Star teams, and finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting three times.
Lee Smith
Going along with the Edgar Martinez line of reasoning, Lee Smith should be honored for his 478 saves. Smith, in addition to the saves - which he was in the Top 5 in saves in the NL 12 times - finished in the Top 5 in Cy Young voting three times. In Save Situations, Smith held opponents to a .640 OPS (98 tOPS+), and 2.94 ERA / 1.12 WHIP.
Alan Trammell
Look, I was an Astros fan growing up in the 1990s. And I knew who Alan Trammell was. At some point, the BBWAA are going to have to stop judging 1980s players by 1990s standards and realize how integral Trammell was to the Tigers. He hit .285/.353/.415 over 20 seasons (with 874K:850BB), and had a .977 Fld% in 2139 games at SS - 22nd All-Time.
Agree? Disagree?
Roberto Alomar
In addition to getting over 2700 hits in his 17-season career, Alomar was the preeminent defensive 2B, posting a .984 Fld% in 2320 games (3rd most of all time). He was a 12-time All-Star in a system where you have to be well-known in order to make the team, and finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting five times. He won ten Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers, to finish with a .300/.371/.443 slash line.
Jeff Bagwell
Do we really need to go over this again?
Bert Blyleven
Bert's 90.1 WAR is the highest among anybody still eligible for the Hall of Fame, and it's a shame that he has had to wait this long. There has been one constant statistic in baseball for pitchers, and that is strikeouts. And Blyleven has 3701 of them - 5th all-time - and he finished in the Top 5 in strikeouts 13 times. No, he does not have 300 wins. Blyleven has a 287-250 record, but started 685 games. That means that Blyleven got 148 No Decisions. In those No Decisions (seven of which came in a relief situation), Blyeleven posted a 3.90 ERA / 1.37 WHIP. If even a third of those games go his way, Blyleven finishes his career with 336 wins. He was a victim of his offense as much as anything - from 1971 to 1974 Blyleven was 70-66, despite a 2.67 ERA / 1.13 WHIP. Yes, he's a Hall of Famer.
Barry Larkin
Over 19 seasons, Larkin was an integral piece to the Cincinnati Reds, and that should count for something. In 2180 games, Larkin hit .295/.371/.444 (with a lot of that at Riverfront Stadium), made 12 All-Star teams, nine Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, and was the 1995 MVP. He drew more walks than strikeouts twelve times, and never struck out more than 69 times. In 2085 games at SS, Larkin posted a .975 Fld%.
Edgar Martinez
At some point, people are going to have to realize that the Hall will have to expand to allow for how the game has changed (see: Miller, Marvin; Smith, Lee). Closers and Designated Hitters - for better or worse - are a part of the game, and excellence at those positions has to be recognized. Edgar, despite his status as the game's first pure DH, finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting twice, and his OBP (.418) ranks 22nd All-Time. His .933 OPS is 35th All-Time. This includes a 1995 season in which Edgar hit .356/.479/.628 for a 185 OPS+ and a 1.107 OPS (and somehow finished behind Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle for AL MVP). From 1992-2001, Edgar hit .325/.435/.993 with an OPS+ of 159, and had an OPS over 1.000 five times. That is some dominant hitting over the course of a 10-year span.
Tim Raines
There has to be some form of "If X is in, then Y deserves consideration." But I subscribe to the theory that, just because the Veterans Committee elected their buddies for 20 years doesn't mean the BBWAA has to be as stupid as them. Because Frankie Frisch is in the Hall of Fame shouldn't affect any other player like him. That said, if Rickey Henderson is in (rightfully), Tim Raines should be in, as well. Raines was effective with the bat, hitting .294/.385/.425, but he could steal bases. Over 23 seasons, the last six of which saw him play in over 100 games just once, Raines averaged 52 stolen bases. His 808 stolen bases are 5th All-Time, and with getting caught just 146 times, he posted an 84.6% success rate. He made seven straight All-Star teams, and finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting three times.
Lee Smith
Going along with the Edgar Martinez line of reasoning, Lee Smith should be honored for his 478 saves. Smith, in addition to the saves - which he was in the Top 5 in saves in the NL 12 times - finished in the Top 5 in Cy Young voting three times. In Save Situations, Smith held opponents to a .640 OPS (98 tOPS+), and 2.94 ERA / 1.12 WHIP.
Alan Trammell
Look, I was an Astros fan growing up in the 1990s. And I knew who Alan Trammell was. At some point, the BBWAA are going to have to stop judging 1980s players by 1990s standards and realize how integral Trammell was to the Tigers. He hit .285/.353/.415 over 20 seasons (with 874K:850BB), and had a .977 Fld% in 2139 games at SS - 22nd All-Time.
Agree? Disagree?
Sunday, December 26, 2010
More Bagwell information, for your consideration
Of course, Richard Justice is all about putting Bagwell in the Hall this year.
Justice, who is spot on:
That said, I know of zero evidence he used steroids. All the aggressive reporting on steroid use has come about as a result of criminal investigations, and Bagwell's name has never come up.
Some voters will presume guilt anyway. Again, if the Major League Players Association had agreed to testing when the owners first put it on the bargaining table in 1994, we wouldn't have to have this debate.
OK, what if we find out a decade from now that Bagwell used steroids? Won't I feel dumb for voting for him?
Nope. Voting will never be perfect as long as human beings are casting them. All you can do is take the best information you have on election day and make a decision.
The Hartford Courant's Don Amore does an excellent job recapping some media and baseball reaction to Bagwell's candidacy, as well. Well worth your click.
Justice, who is spot on:
That said, I know of zero evidence he used steroids. All the aggressive reporting on steroid use has come about as a result of criminal investigations, and Bagwell's name has never come up.
Some voters will presume guilt anyway. Again, if the Major League Players Association had agreed to testing when the owners first put it on the bargaining table in 1994, we wouldn't have to have this debate.
OK, what if we find out a decade from now that Bagwell used steroids? Won't I feel dumb for voting for him?
Nope. Voting will never be perfect as long as human beings are casting them. All you can do is take the best information you have on election day and make a decision.
The Hartford Courant's Don Amore does an excellent job recapping some media and baseball reaction to Bagwell's candidacy, as well. Well worth your click.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
In other news you already knew
The Astros traded Matt Lindstrom, in a further effort to shed payroll - which is like throwing deck chairs off the Queen Mary - and to restock Eddie's Farm.
Jonathan Mayo says...
On Wes Musick:
Musick will be 24 for the 2011 season, and he's a southpaw with a reputation as a strike-thrower. He throws his fastball in the 88-90-mph range with a good curveball. He does have the ability to get hitters to swing and miss. Whether he's able to remain a starter will depend on his ability to develop his changeup, something the Rockies had him working on this past year.
On Jonnathan Aristil:
With a 90-mph fastball and decent secondary stuff, Aristil profiles as a long reliever or a spot starter. He's willing to soak up innings and he's not afraid to take the ball in any situation.
Baseball America:
On Aristil:
Aristil finished his season with two scoreless innings in Triple-A with Colorado Springs, but the converted infielder had an unimpressive season. Our scouting report also isn't terribly impressive. He's got an upper-80s fastball that touches the low 90s, an average changeup that he relies on significantly, and a below-average curveball.
On Musick:
Musick has an easy scouting report as a classic lefthander with excellent secondary stuff and a fringy fastball. He has a long medical history, as he had both knee surgery to repair a torn ACL and Tommy John surgery when he was in college at Houston. Musick was drafted three times—out of high school by the Astros in 2005, as well as '08 and '09—because of his feel for a curveball and an excellent changeups, which scouts rate as a plus pitch.
Ed Wade:
In a perfect world you can keep everybody around and be even stronger but, the reality at this point and time, we felt we had protection on the back end of the bullpen. With the ability to go out and add two more young arms to create more depth in the system and balance the payroll, this was a sensible deal for us to make.
It makes perfect sense to make this trade (although why Lindstrom wasn't included in the Paulino trade is unclear). The Astros have already committed to Brandon Lyon for $5m+, and Lindstrom was probably going to get $2-3m in arbitration. For a team that would feel lucky to finish .500, you don't really need to commit $7-8m to the last two innings.
I liked Lindstrom, but his back problems and the presence of Brandon Lyon made him expendable. Of course, had the Astros traded Lyon, it would have made further payroll sense, but I digress. Ultimately, good move by Wade, and there's one less 30-year old on the roster.
Jonathan Mayo says...
On Wes Musick:
Musick will be 24 for the 2011 season, and he's a southpaw with a reputation as a strike-thrower. He throws his fastball in the 88-90-mph range with a good curveball. He does have the ability to get hitters to swing and miss. Whether he's able to remain a starter will depend on his ability to develop his changeup, something the Rockies had him working on this past year.
On Jonnathan Aristil:
With a 90-mph fastball and decent secondary stuff, Aristil profiles as a long reliever or a spot starter. He's willing to soak up innings and he's not afraid to take the ball in any situation.
Baseball America:
On Aristil:
Aristil finished his season with two scoreless innings in Triple-A with Colorado Springs, but the converted infielder had an unimpressive season. Our scouting report also isn't terribly impressive. He's got an upper-80s fastball that touches the low 90s, an average changeup that he relies on significantly, and a below-average curveball.
On Musick:
Musick has an easy scouting report as a classic lefthander with excellent secondary stuff and a fringy fastball. He has a long medical history, as he had both knee surgery to repair a torn ACL and Tommy John surgery when he was in college at Houston. Musick was drafted three times—out of high school by the Astros in 2005, as well as '08 and '09—because of his feel for a curveball and an excellent changeups, which scouts rate as a plus pitch.
Ed Wade:
In a perfect world you can keep everybody around and be even stronger but, the reality at this point and time, we felt we had protection on the back end of the bullpen. With the ability to go out and add two more young arms to create more depth in the system and balance the payroll, this was a sensible deal for us to make.
It makes perfect sense to make this trade (although why Lindstrom wasn't included in the Paulino trade is unclear). The Astros have already committed to Brandon Lyon for $5m+, and Lindstrom was probably going to get $2-3m in arbitration. For a team that would feel lucky to finish .500, you don't really need to commit $7-8m to the last two innings.
I liked Lindstrom, but his back problems and the presence of Brandon Lyon made him expendable. Of course, had the Astros traded Lyon, it would have made further payroll sense, but I digress. Ultimately, good move by Wade, and there's one less 30-year old on the roster.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Edwin Maysonet is now a Brewer
The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says that the Brewers have signed Edwin Maysonet to a minor-league deal with an invitation to Major League Spring Training.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Figuring out these HOF votes
So we'll play a little game in which we rundown who will be, and who will not be, voting for Bagwell in his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame. This will be updated regularly...
Jeff Jacobs:
Yes, Bagwell's numbers are similar to Hall of Famers Willie Stargell and Orlando Cepeda, but Bagwell played in the era of greatly inflated numbers. And besides never leading the Astros to postseason success, those inflated numbers and that inflated body lead to inevitable whispers of steroids. He has always denied it. He wasn't named in the Mitchell Report. The suspicion, however, postpones my support.
Ron Chimelis:
I plan to vote for Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris.
Denver Post's Dave Krieger:
So this year, I'm voting for Morris, Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell and Tim Raines because I think they belong. I'm voting for Bagwell and Walker because I'm not sure if they belong, but I'm sure they deserve further consideration.
Jeff Jacobs:
Yes, Bagwell's numbers are similar to Hall of Famers Willie Stargell and Orlando Cepeda, but Bagwell played in the era of greatly inflated numbers. And besides never leading the Astros to postseason success, those inflated numbers and that inflated body lead to inevitable whispers of steroids. He has always denied it. He wasn't named in the Mitchell Report. The suspicion, however, postpones my support.
Ron Chimelis:
I plan to vote for Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris.
Denver Post's Dave Krieger:
So this year, I'm voting for Morris, Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell and Tim Raines because I think they belong. I'm voting for Bagwell and Walker because I'm not sure if they belong, but I'm sure they deserve further consideration.
Heyman explains why he didn't vote for Bagwell
Jon Heyman posted his HOF ballot, which should be credited. Filed under "Close Calls, But Not Quite (Yet)" [sic] is one Bagwell, Jeff:
The numbers were plenty good (449 home runs, .408 OBP, .540 slugging percentage) and he'll merit reconsideration next year. I won't argue if he gets in, but I'd prefer a chance to reconsider in future years.
The numbers were plenty good (449 home runs, .408 OBP, .540 slugging percentage) and he'll merit reconsideration next year. I won't argue if he gets in, but I'd prefer a chance to reconsider in future years.
ESPN has jokes
It's not even Christmas, and ESPN is already running (Insider-Only) articles about how the Astros might as well not even bother in 2011.
You see, it's a ZiPS projection of the NL Central, and they only take into account the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds.
But not without some snark:
Houston has so many holes that they should start selling Astros-imprinted colanders.
You see, it's a ZiPS projection of the NL Central, and they only take into account the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds.
But not without some snark:
Houston has so many holes that they should start selling Astros-imprinted colanders.
River Ave. Blues has their sights on two Astros
Over at the always-quality River Ave. Blues (Yankees blog), Mike Axisa ponders the potential acquisition of Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. It's a well-thought-out argument, so be sure to give it a click, but here is the verdict:
Brett Myers:
Myers was sure to decline his part of an $8M mutual option for 2011 after the season he had, but Wade (who had Myers in Philadelphia) was proactive. He signed the righty to a two-year contract extension with a third year club option worth no less than $23M. Myers would make a lot of sense for the Yankees, but I just can’t imagine the Astros would be willing to trade him less than five months after giving him the extension.
Wandy Rodriguez:
Rodriguez simply makes far more sense for the Yankees and their current needs. He’s left-handed, can strike people out, and is on a short-term commitment. The Javy Vazquez trade could be a good comp in terms of prospect package required since both guys were coming off strong seasons with just one year left on their deals, so that means an average or worse big leaguer, a lower level pitching prospect, and a fungible relief prospect.
Brett Myers:
Myers was sure to decline his part of an $8M mutual option for 2011 after the season he had, but Wade (who had Myers in Philadelphia) was proactive. He signed the righty to a two-year contract extension with a third year club option worth no less than $23M. Myers would make a lot of sense for the Yankees, but I just can’t imagine the Astros would be willing to trade him less than five months after giving him the extension.
Wandy Rodriguez:
Rodriguez simply makes far more sense for the Yankees and their current needs. He’s left-handed, can strike people out, and is on a short-term commitment. The Javy Vazquez trade could be a good comp in terms of prospect package required since both guys were coming off strong seasons with just one year left on their deals, so that means an average or worse big leaguer, a lower level pitching prospect, and a fungible relief prospect.
McTaggart, on Bill Hall
You've probably seen it, but Brian McTaggart has his own reaction to the Bill Hall signing. A pull:
Back to the Astros. With the moves to acquire Barmes and Hall, the Astros have completed their top offseason task, which was to add some run production to the middle of the infield. The Astros got a combined nine homers last season from the second base and shortstop positions, and Barmes and Hall could wind up hitting 20 apiece if things go right.
Suddenly, the lineup seems more legitimate.
Back to the Astros. With the moves to acquire Barmes and Hall, the Astros have completed their top offseason task, which was to add some run production to the middle of the infield. The Astros got a combined nine homers last season from the second base and shortstop positions, and Barmes and Hall could wind up hitting 20 apiece if things go right.
Suddenly, the lineup seems more legitimate.
FanGraphs, on Bill Hall
FanGraphs also did some thinking about Bill Hall. Here's a pull:
Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left field is designed perfectly for Hall’s batting profile – a pull-heavy right hander...In a park that plays well to his skillset, and with a certain position for the first time since 2008, there’s reason to believe that Hall can produce at second base for the Astros in 2010. The situation works out perfectly for both teams: the Astros get a low-risk stopgap in a rebuilding time, and Hall gets a chance to build some value for one last push at another multi-year contract.
Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left field is designed perfectly for Hall’s batting profile – a pull-heavy right hander...In a park that plays well to his skillset, and with a certain position for the first time since 2008, there’s reason to believe that Hall can produce at second base for the Astros in 2010. The situation works out perfectly for both teams: the Astros get a low-risk stopgap in a rebuilding time, and Hall gets a chance to build some value for one last push at another multi-year contract.
Thinking about this Bill Hall thing
So as the one who was on duty at the AC Desk this weekend, being called away on business meant that I completely failed at my job. I thought, "What can possibly happen?" And then the Astros went and signed Bill Hall to a $3.25 million contract. A couple of notes about this.
1. This is pretty clearly the end of Jeff Keppinger's time as 2B1. If this is true, I'm okay with that. 2010 was the best year of his career, and if the Astros can capitalize on that with a couple of prospects - even lower-level ones - then that's great.
2. That said, the Hall deal is only a one-year deal. Meaning the Astros are paying $3.25m for a guy who has posted one year with an OPS higher than .700 since 2007. Keppinger is heading to arbitration for the second time, after making $1.15m in 2010. Even if his 2nd year of arbitration nets him a 100% raise, it will result in almost a million dollars less than Bill Hall's deal. (But again, if you spend $1m adding a good prospect or two, then I can live with that).
3. The Astros are obviously just trying to get to 2012. Heading into 2012, Lee will be mercifully be in the final year of his contract. Bourn and Pence will be in their final year of arbitration. Hall will be off the books. Who knows what will happen to Barmes? Just right there, that's potentially five positions (without even having looked at pitchers) that are up in the air beginning in 2013. Will the Astros give extensions to Bourn or Pence? They've decided - rightly, in my humble opinion - to wait and see. There's no pressure to lock anybody up, because let's be honest, the Reds and Cardinals are going to be better - on paper - than the Astros for the next couple of seasons. With the Brewers acquiring Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, they are now better than the Astros.
4. So Wade is doing what he has done over the past couple of years: Trying to catch lightning in a bottle while adding to the farm system. It seems to be his M.O - stock the system, and then get fired before any of them finish climbing the chain. If you're a Wade believer, then you hope whomever is the new owner (if there even is one by 2012), believes in the system and keeps him on. It's not Wade's fault that the Astros have $35m in financial commitments in 2012, and $18.5m of that is to Carlos Lee. Patience is the word to remember around Astros Fandom. Think Mills is reminiscing about his days at Fenway yet?
1. This is pretty clearly the end of Jeff Keppinger's time as 2B1. If this is true, I'm okay with that. 2010 was the best year of his career, and if the Astros can capitalize on that with a couple of prospects - even lower-level ones - then that's great.
2. That said, the Hall deal is only a one-year deal. Meaning the Astros are paying $3.25m for a guy who has posted one year with an OPS higher than .700 since 2007. Keppinger is heading to arbitration for the second time, after making $1.15m in 2010. Even if his 2nd year of arbitration nets him a 100% raise, it will result in almost a million dollars less than Bill Hall's deal. (But again, if you spend $1m adding a good prospect or two, then I can live with that).
3. The Astros are obviously just trying to get to 2012. Heading into 2012, Lee will be mercifully be in the final year of his contract. Bourn and Pence will be in their final year of arbitration. Hall will be off the books. Who knows what will happen to Barmes? Just right there, that's potentially five positions (without even having looked at pitchers) that are up in the air beginning in 2013. Will the Astros give extensions to Bourn or Pence? They've decided - rightly, in my humble opinion - to wait and see. There's no pressure to lock anybody up, because let's be honest, the Reds and Cardinals are going to be better - on paper - than the Astros for the next couple of seasons. With the Brewers acquiring Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, they are now better than the Astros.
4. So Wade is doing what he has done over the past couple of years: Trying to catch lightning in a bottle while adding to the farm system. It seems to be his M.O - stock the system, and then get fired before any of them finish climbing the chain. If you're a Wade believer, then you hope whomever is the new owner (if there even is one by 2012), believes in the system and keeps him on. It's not Wade's fault that the Astros have $35m in financial commitments in 2012, and $18.5m of that is to Carlos Lee. Patience is the word to remember around Astros Fandom. Think Mills is reminiscing about his days at Fenway yet?
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Gift Ideas from Astros County!
Hey, have you checked out some of Astros County's merchandise? Subsidize our student loans by purchasing shirts, bibs, aprons, thongs, and more!
How about this one?
Or this one:
How about this one?
Or this one:
Astros hire Josh Bonifay
The Altoona Mirror says that the Astros have hired former Pirates minor leaguer-turned-coach Josh Bonifay to be Greeneville's hitting coach.
Bonifay:
"Houston called for an opportunity within their player development department as a hitting coach at a low-level rookie team. It was my first opportunity to have a full-time gig as a hitting coach and a longtime goal to continue my career in baseball.
"I am extremely fortunate for the opportunity, and I look forward to a long career as a coach."
Bonifay:
"Houston called for an opportunity within their player development department as a hitting coach at a low-level rookie team. It was my first opportunity to have a full-time gig as a hitting coach and a longtime goal to continue my career in baseball.
"I am extremely fortunate for the opportunity, and I look forward to a long career as a coach."
Jerome Solomon takes our morning, and crams it down the toilet
I love Christmas. Santa Claus, sugarplum fairies, and whatnot. I love it because you're encouraged to suspend reality, even if it's for a week or two, and believe in something unbelievable (like a parking spot, or the hope that not everybody in Bed, Bath, and Beyond isn't going to be a complete douche).
However, Jerome Solomon took that suspension of reality, and beat it to death with his column on the 2011 Astros.
Wade believes Lee, Pence and Chris Johnson, who had a tremendous rookie season at third base, give the Astros three middle-of-the-lineup bats capable of delivering 25-30 home runs apiece and generating offense that could put the team in the hunt.
Brett Wallace at first base won't make us forget Lance Berkman anytime soon, but let's assume he'll graduate from Room .222 where he spent last season.
We'll also assume young catcher Jason Castro will at least hit his weight next season. Too bad he weighs only 210 pounds.
And so on...
However, Jerome Solomon took that suspension of reality, and beat it to death with his column on the 2011 Astros.
Wade believes Lee, Pence and Chris Johnson, who had a tremendous rookie season at third base, give the Astros three middle-of-the-lineup bats capable of delivering 25-30 home runs apiece and generating offense that could put the team in the hunt.
Brett Wallace at first base won't make us forget Lance Berkman anytime soon, but let's assume he'll graduate from Room .222 where he spent last season.
We'll also assume young catcher Jason Castro will at least hit his weight next season. Too bad he weighs only 210 pounds.
And so on...
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Heyman ain't voting for Bagwell
Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman tweeted his HOF ballot today, and it did not include a certain 1B.
My hall of fame ballot: alomar, larkin, mattingly, morris, murphy, parker, raines.
Hey, let's at least give him credit for posting his ballot...
My hall of fame ballot: alomar, larkin, mattingly, morris, murphy, parker, raines.
Hey, let's at least give him credit for posting his ballot...
The Astros are selling about as well as the Furby
Dave Dalati says the market for the Astros is pretty dadgum slim as of now, and notes a surprising bit of information:
Of course no one expected the Astros to get purchased only a month after going on the market. But what is mildly surprising is that no local individual or group has even displayed serious interest yet.
Furthermore:
No local person among those that have the wherewithal to make such a purchase has emerged as seriously interested, although it’s possible someone is considering making a pitch to buy the team. A couple of years ago, Jim Crane of Houston was involved in serious negotiations with McLane to buy the team but those talks deteriorated late in the process.
Whether Crane would make another run now is unclear.
Of course no one expected the Astros to get purchased only a month after going on the market. But what is mildly surprising is that no local individual or group has even displayed serious interest yet.
Furthermore:
No local person among those that have the wherewithal to make such a purchase has emerged as seriously interested, although it’s possible someone is considering making a pitch to buy the team. A couple of years ago, Jim Crane of Houston was involved in serious negotiations with McLane to buy the team but those talks deteriorated late in the process.
Whether Crane would make another run now is unclear.
Minor-league signings!
Brian McTaggart says that the Astros have signed IF Brian Dopirak and RHP Sammy Gervacio to minor-league contracts with invitations to Major-League Spring Training.
Dopirak will be 27 next week, and was the Cubs' 2nd Round pick in 2002. He was in Triple-A Las Vegas in part of 2009 and all of 2010, hitting .296/.331/.476 in 138 games at Triple-A.
Over the course of nine minor-league seasons, Dopirak has hit .280/.336/.484, with 770K:271BB, 371 extra-base hits, and 596 RBI.
He's a first-baseman, which is interesting, as he'll either be IF6 or in Triple-A (or cut, I suppose). And isn't Koby going to be at Triple-A? Or Brett Wallace? Still, it doesn't hurt anything to give him a shot, and see if he can replicate his 25+ HR power (as he has done in three seasons, most recently in 2009 between AA-AAA).
And you know all about Slammin' Sammy Gervacio.
Dopirak will be 27 next week, and was the Cubs' 2nd Round pick in 2002. He was in Triple-A Las Vegas in part of 2009 and all of 2010, hitting .296/.331/.476 in 138 games at Triple-A.
Over the course of nine minor-league seasons, Dopirak has hit .280/.336/.484, with 770K:271BB, 371 extra-base hits, and 596 RBI.
He's a first-baseman, which is interesting, as he'll either be IF6 or in Triple-A (or cut, I suppose). And isn't Koby going to be at Triple-A? Or Brett Wallace? Still, it doesn't hurt anything to give him a shot, and see if he can replicate his 25+ HR power (as he has done in three seasons, most recently in 2009 between AA-AAA).
And you know all about Slammin' Sammy Gervacio.
Big Sale at Minute Maid Park today
So if you find yourselves downtown today, head on over to Minute Maid, where there will be a big sale, including:
*Up to 60% off selected game-used caps, game jerseys and batting practice jerseys
*40% off game jackets
*50% off 2010 game-used baseballs
*40% off 2010 game-used bases
*New and game-used bats
*Limited supply of rare, 1986 game-worn Astros jerseys, with All-Star Game patch
*Large selection of discounted specialty items and collectibles priced at 50 cents and up.
Also, 10% off the Astros' franchise!
*Up to 60% off selected game-used caps, game jerseys and batting practice jerseys
*40% off game jackets
*50% off 2010 game-used baseballs
*40% off 2010 game-used bases
*New and game-used bats
*Limited supply of rare, 1986 game-worn Astros jerseys, with All-Star Game patch
*Large selection of discounted specialty items and collectibles priced at 50 cents and up.
Also, 10% off the Astros' franchise!
This Lance Pendleton fella is some kind of excited
So McTaggart interviewed Lance Pendleton and found a firecracker's worth of energy.
Pendleton, who even traveled to Chicago for the World Series in 2005 (but was not slapped by a White Sox fan):
"I've been a big Houston Astros fan for as long as I can remember. I'd be lying to you, having been in the Yankees' organization, if I said I had followed them nearly as much as I used to. But I'm ready to support them now, if that's all right."
Pendleton, who even traveled to Chicago for the World Series in 2005 (but was not slapped by a White Sox fan):
"I've been a big Houston Astros fan for as long as I can remember. I'd be lying to you, having been in the Yankees' organization, if I said I had followed them nearly as much as I used to. But I'm ready to support them now, if that's all right."
Wade apparently happy with bullpen
Brian McTaggart says Ed Wade is quite pleased with how the bullpen is shaping up.
Wade:
"You can never have enough arms, but we realize as we sit here now that if we had to go to Spring Training and start it up tomorrow, we've got the components in place to be able to put a good bullpen together."
Who will close?
"That's the beauty of where we are. We had two guys last year who had 20 or more saves and we've got Wilton, who we think has closer capability. I think we go into Spring Training in the same mindset we had a year ago before Lyon fell behind because of having the cyst aspirated in his shoulder.
"If you've got more than one guy with the ability to go out there and handle the job, you can mix and match, use the hot hand or use it in a matchup situation, depending on the hitters coming up in the ninth or which pitcher had success against those hitters. Hopefully, everybody is healthy and competing and they show they have the capability and deserve to get the ball at the back end of games."
Wade:
"You can never have enough arms, but we realize as we sit here now that if we had to go to Spring Training and start it up tomorrow, we've got the components in place to be able to put a good bullpen together."
Who will close?
"That's the beauty of where we are. We had two guys last year who had 20 or more saves and we've got Wilton, who we think has closer capability. I think we go into Spring Training in the same mindset we had a year ago before Lyon fell behind because of having the cyst aspirated in his shoulder.
"If you've got more than one guy with the ability to go out there and handle the job, you can mix and match, use the hot hand or use it in a matchup situation, depending on the hitters coming up in the ninth or which pitcher had success against those hitters. Hopefully, everybody is healthy and competing and they show they have the capability and deserve to get the ball at the back end of games."
Baseball Prospectus runs down Eddie's Farm
Them There Crawfish Boxes had the link first, but Baseball Prospectus gave a little recap as to the state of Eddie's Farm. There's far too much to pull from, so just go ahead and give it a click for full info.
That said, here are the Astros' top 10 prospects, according to BP:
1. Jordan Lyles, RHP
2. Delino DeShields Jr., 2B/OF
3. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
4. Ariel Ovando, OF
5. Jonathan Villar, SS
6. Jimmy Paredes, 2B
7. Tannuer Bushue, RHP
8. J.D. Martinez, OF
9. Mike Kvasnicka, 3B/OF/C
10. Jiovanni Mier, SS
And your money quote, from author Kevin Goldstein:
A combination of bad contracts, little young talent, and a poor minor-league system leaves the Astros with a big hole to dig out of. They're getting better slowly, but a return to contention is still years away, and anything but guaranteed.
That said, here are the Astros' top 10 prospects, according to BP:
1. Jordan Lyles, RHP
2. Delino DeShields Jr., 2B/OF
3. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
4. Ariel Ovando, OF
5. Jonathan Villar, SS
6. Jimmy Paredes, 2B
7. Tannuer Bushue, RHP
8. J.D. Martinez, OF
9. Mike Kvasnicka, 3B/OF/C
10. Jiovanni Mier, SS
And your money quote, from author Kevin Goldstein:
A combination of bad contracts, little young talent, and a poor minor-league system leaves the Astros with a big hole to dig out of. They're getting better slowly, but a return to contention is still years away, and anything but guaranteed.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Koby still = Brandon Inge
Nick Cafardo's Sunday column gives a little update on Koby Clemens:
Nobody took him in the Rule 5 draft, but that wasn’t surprising. The 24-year-old Clemens hit 26 homers and knocked in 85 runs while hitting .241 at Double A, but he struck out 143 times in 452 at-bats. Astros manager Brad Mills raved about him, though. “I saw him hit a home run through this incredibly stiff wind during an intrasquad game at spring training last year,’’ Mills said. “He’s got power.’’ Clemens played first base last season for the first time after being used as catcher/third baseman. The Astros still believe he can be a Brandon Inge type of player and he will get to play at Triple A in 2011.
And on Matt Lindstrom:
Another reliever who could be traded this winter. Lindstrom had a good first half but exploded in the second half. The Astros would love to dump his salary, which was $1.65 million last season and will rise in arbitration. Lindstrom was Houston’s closer, but another team could use him in middle relief.
Nobody took him in the Rule 5 draft, but that wasn’t surprising. The 24-year-old Clemens hit 26 homers and knocked in 85 runs while hitting .241 at Double A, but he struck out 143 times in 452 at-bats. Astros manager Brad Mills raved about him, though. “I saw him hit a home run through this incredibly stiff wind during an intrasquad game at spring training last year,’’ Mills said. “He’s got power.’’ Clemens played first base last season for the first time after being used as catcher/third baseman. The Astros still believe he can be a Brandon Inge type of player and he will get to play at Triple A in 2011.
And on Matt Lindstrom:
Another reliever who could be traded this winter. Lindstrom had a good first half but exploded in the second half. The Astros would love to dump his salary, which was $1.65 million last season and will rise in arbitration. Lindstrom was Houston’s closer, but another team could use him in middle relief.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Astros re-sign Abreu and Peguero
Baseball America says the Astros have re-signed Erick Abreu and Jailen Peguero to minor-league deals.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Pellegrini will be ready for Spring Training
And Brian Pellegrini's surgery went well, but he'll be out longer than he expected, yet still plans to be ready for Spring Training.
Brian Pellegrini to have surgery this morning
Slugger Brian Pellegrini told everyone last night on Twitter that he would be in surgery this morning to clean out his knee, and added that it's "nothing too serious."
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Houston getting some love for the Aneury pick
(First of all, I love the guy's name. Aneury. It sounds like it's going to be terrible, but then it stops short. It's a fear-inducing name. Like Syphil. Or Gonorrh.)
Call to the Pen loves the pick:
He’s a big strike-thrower with low-to-mid-90’s heat and solid offspeed stuff–the sort of guy who should be somewhere between a third and fifth starter. With well over 100 Triple-A innings, he’s pretty much big-league ready, and the Astros could always use young talent–it’s a match made in heaven, no?
I have to say, I criticize the majority of Houston’s moves, but this one is extremely good. Rodriguez can be a back-of-the-rotation starter or solid middle reliever this season, so unlike most Rule 5 picks, he won’t be a strain on the roster. Furthermore, he has the potential to wind up being a rotation rock for the next half-decade. Well done indeed.
Call to the Pen loves the pick:
He’s a big strike-thrower with low-to-mid-90’s heat and solid offspeed stuff–the sort of guy who should be somewhere between a third and fifth starter. With well over 100 Triple-A innings, he’s pretty much big-league ready, and the Astros could always use young talent–it’s a match made in heaven, no?
I have to say, I criticize the majority of Houston’s moves, but this one is extremely good. Rodriguez can be a back-of-the-rotation starter or solid middle reliever this season, so unlike most Rule 5 picks, he won’t be a strain on the roster. Furthermore, he has the potential to wind up being a rotation rock for the next half-decade. Well done indeed.
What other people think about these two gentlemen
Aneury Rodriguez
RaysProspects.com (January 2010):
He doesn't have great stuff, but it's good enough: A low-90s fastball with a slider and change-up, but the change-up lags behind the other two in terms of development. At a slender 6'3", Rodriguez could add a little bit to his fastball as he continues to develop.
DRaysBay (April 2009):
In three seasons, Rodriguez has shown the ability to strike hitters out while avoiding walks and homeruns. FIPs of 3.15, 3.86, and 3.38. He seems like a quality pitcher...
Tracy Ringolsby (quoting Baseball America, November 2010):
“Rodriguez might be the most likely player to get picked, as he has the combination of success at upper levels, the possibility of upside and age on his side. Rodriguez pitched for Triple-A Durham at age 22 this season and was for several stretches the Bulls’ No. 2 starter after Minor League Player of the Year Jeremy Hellickson."
Lance Pendleton
Pinstriped Bible (Today):
He acquitted himself well at pitching-friendly Trenton, and has a nice low-90s sinker, but there’s not much else going on there and his strikeout rate plummeted while his home-run rake spiked in his brief stint at Triple-A to end the season. The Astros are a bad team, but unless they see potential for Pendleton in relief, he seems unlikely to stick.
RaysProspects.com (January 2010):
He doesn't have great stuff, but it's good enough: A low-90s fastball with a slider and change-up, but the change-up lags behind the other two in terms of development. At a slender 6'3", Rodriguez could add a little bit to his fastball as he continues to develop.
DRaysBay (April 2009):
In three seasons, Rodriguez has shown the ability to strike hitters out while avoiding walks and homeruns. FIPs of 3.15, 3.86, and 3.38. He seems like a quality pitcher...
Tracy Ringolsby (quoting Baseball America, November 2010):
“Rodriguez might be the most likely player to get picked, as he has the combination of success at upper levels, the possibility of upside and age on his side. Rodriguez pitched for Triple-A Durham at age 22 this season and was for several stretches the Bulls’ No. 2 starter after Minor League Player of the Year Jeremy Hellickson."
Lance Pendleton
Pinstriped Bible (Today):
He acquitted himself well at pitching-friendly Trenton, and has a nice low-90s sinker, but there’s not much else going on there and his strikeout rate plummeted while his home-run rake spiked in his brief stint at Triple-A to end the season. The Astros are a bad team, but unless they see potential for Pendleton in relief, he seems unlikely to stick.
Jonathan Mayo on Aneury Rodriguez
Here's a nice recap of why the Astros took Tampa Bay's Aneury Rodriguez in today's Rule 5 draft:
At the start of the Winter Meetings, it was the Rays' Rodriguez who was talked about the most as a player sure to be taken. Houston took him right after the Nationals picked, at No. 8, and like Ramirez, the soon-to-be 23-year-old improved his stock in winter ball. Rodriguez has a 1.22 ERA and .193 opponents' batting average in seven Dominican League starts. Unlike Ramirez, though, Rodriguez spent most of the year at Triple-A and had some success there (3.80 ERA in 113 2/3 innings), so Houston believes he's ready to compete at the Major League level.
Ed Wade:
"Being able to get these two guys provides us with depth of competition for a starting role in Spring Training, and we'll see where it goes from there. It's good to add some quality [talent] to the organization, and we understand what the Rule 5 process is and are satisfied with the way it went."
At the start of the Winter Meetings, it was the Rays' Rodriguez who was talked about the most as a player sure to be taken. Houston took him right after the Nationals picked, at No. 8, and like Ramirez, the soon-to-be 23-year-old improved his stock in winter ball. Rodriguez has a 1.22 ERA and .193 opponents' batting average in seven Dominican League starts. Unlike Ramirez, though, Rodriguez spent most of the year at Triple-A and had some success there (3.80 ERA in 113 2/3 innings), so Houston believes he's ready to compete at the Major League level.
Ed Wade:
"Being able to get these two guys provides us with depth of competition for a starting role in Spring Training, and we'll see where it goes from there. It's good to add some quality [talent] to the organization, and we understand what the Rule 5 process is and are satisfied with the way it went."
Astros sign Ryan Rowland-Smith
So the Astros have agreed to terms (pending a physical) with another pitcher - this one likely figuring into the SP5 mix, 27 year-old Ryan Rowland-Smith. Rowland-Smith is a lefty, 6'3", and 205lb from Sydney, Australia. We are working to confirm that, because he's from the southern hemisphere, his pitches actually spin the other way.
In 10 minor-league seasons, Rowland-Smith is 33-30 with a 3.84 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a career 2.71 K:BB ratio, with 8.9 hits/9, 8.7 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9.
In 27 games with the Mariners in 2010, Rowland-Smith was 1-10 with a 6.75 ERA/1.69 WHIP, 1.11 K:BB, 11.6 H/9, 4.0 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9.
His numbers took a hit in July, when in six starts (31.1IP), he gave up 45H/30ER, 10K:10BB, 8HR, and a .331/.610/.993. Unfortunately, this came with a .311 BABIP - not terribly inflated. This is all also inflated by a 5IP, 11H/11ER performance at Chicago on July 27.
In five September appearances (four of them in relief), Rowland-Smith allowed 12H/6ER in 11IP for a more handsome 4.91 ERA, and a .279/.340/.558 (.323 BABIP).
He'll compete for the SP5 spot with Figueroa, Lyles, Abad, and Villar.
In 10 minor-league seasons, Rowland-Smith is 33-30 with a 3.84 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a career 2.71 K:BB ratio, with 8.9 hits/9, 8.7 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9.
In 27 games with the Mariners in 2010, Rowland-Smith was 1-10 with a 6.75 ERA/1.69 WHIP, 1.11 K:BB, 11.6 H/9, 4.0 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9.
His numbers took a hit in July, when in six starts (31.1IP), he gave up 45H/30ER, 10K:10BB, 8HR, and a .331/.610/.993. Unfortunately, this came with a .311 BABIP - not terribly inflated. This is all also inflated by a 5IP, 11H/11ER performance at Chicago on July 27.
In five September appearances (four of them in relief), Rowland-Smith allowed 12H/6ER in 11IP for a more handsome 4.91 ERA, and a .279/.340/.558 (.323 BABIP).
He'll compete for the SP5 spot with Figueroa, Lyles, Abad, and Villar.
Rule 5 pick!
Zach Levine just tweeted that the Astros have selected Aneury Rodriguez and Lance Pendleton in the Rule 5 draft, and didn't have anyone selected by another team in the MLB portion of the Draft.
-RHP Aneury Rodriguez will be 23 next week, and comes from the Rays organization. In 2010, he split time between Double-A and Triple-A (mostly in Triple-A), posting a 7-5 record, with a 3.71 ERA/1.33 WHIP (6-5, 3.80/1.35 in AAA). Peripherals: 1.96 K:BB ratio, 8.2 H/9, 7.4 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9.
-RHP Lance Pendleton is 27, and comes out of Kingwood, TX. He was the Yankees 4th Round pick in 2005, and also aplit tome between Double-A and Triple-A for the Yankees in 2010 (mostly, though, in Double-A Trenton). Over the course of 2010, Pendleton was 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA/1.17 WHIP. Peripherals: 2.33 K:BB, 7.2 H/9, 7.7 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9.
-In the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, the Astros lost Jeiler Castillo to the A's. Castillo finished 2010 in Tri-City, but spent most of the season in Greeneville.
-RHP Aneury Rodriguez will be 23 next week, and comes from the Rays organization. In 2010, he split time between Double-A and Triple-A (mostly in Triple-A), posting a 7-5 record, with a 3.71 ERA/1.33 WHIP (6-5, 3.80/1.35 in AAA). Peripherals: 1.96 K:BB ratio, 8.2 H/9, 7.4 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9.
-RHP Lance Pendleton is 27, and comes out of Kingwood, TX. He was the Yankees 4th Round pick in 2005, and also aplit tome between Double-A and Triple-A for the Yankees in 2010 (mostly, though, in Double-A Trenton). Over the course of 2010, Pendleton was 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA/1.17 WHIP. Peripherals: 2.33 K:BB, 7.2 H/9, 7.7 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9.
-In the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, the Astros lost Jeiler Castillo to the A's. Castillo finished 2010 in Tri-City, but spent most of the season in Greeneville.
Eddie's Farm Moves
The Astros have filled some spots open in Eddie's Farm:
-Stubby Clapp. Moved from Corpus' hitting coach to Minor League Roving Infield Instructor/Tri-City manager
-John Moses. Leaves as hitting coach for Triple-A Albuquerque for hitting coach at Corpus
-Tom Spencer. Manager at Lancaster, last managed in 2009 in St. Louis' organization.
-Edgar Alfonzo (not to be confused with his brother, Edgardo), to be hitting coach in GCL Astros.
-Stubby Clapp. Moved from Corpus' hitting coach to Minor League Roving Infield Instructor/Tri-City manager
-John Moses. Leaves as hitting coach for Triple-A Albuquerque for hitting coach at Corpus
-Tom Spencer. Manager at Lancaster, last managed in 2009 in St. Louis' organization.
-Edgar Alfonzo (not to be confused with his brother, Edgardo), to be hitting coach in GCL Astros.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Really? 20-25 conversations?
So it's being reported that Drayton has had 20-25 conversations regarding selling the Astros. But "just conversations."
One of those conversations may or may not have been with Stan Kasten.
It's also unclear if 24 conversations were with one guy who just keeps calling to ask, "What's up?"
Interestingly enough Kasten doesn't sound terribly interested.
One of those conversations may or may not have been with Stan Kasten.
It's also unclear if 24 conversations were with one guy who just keeps calling to ask, "What's up?"
Interestingly enough Kasten doesn't sound terribly interested.
Brad Arnsberg knows how to work some magic
In Zach Levine's blog post last night we read that the Astros will try to exhaust their options for SP5 before looking elsewhere. Maybe.
Wade, speaking on behalf of Brad Arnsberg, said that Arnsberg can get a pitcher ready to start over the course of one Spring Training.
Within that link, Levine breaks down the chances of Figueroa, Lyles, Abad, and Villar of becoming that SP5.
Wade, speaking on behalf of Brad Arnsberg, said that Arnsberg can get a pitcher ready to start over the course of one Spring Training.
Within that link, Levine breaks down the chances of Figueroa, Lyles, Abad, and Villar of becoming that SP5.
Tuesdays Rumored Rumors
The flu knocked He Who Was In Charge of the Updates down yesterday, and today is a little iffy, but let's go through the rumors and topics of the day for Day Two of the Winter Meetings:
Somehow, the Astros were interested in Ty Wigginton, before he mercifully signed with Colorado.
Wandy Rodriguez changed agents, from Barry Praver to Adam Katz. Adam Katz also represents Carlos Lee.
The Astros are interested in Jack Cust, as are the Mariners.
Ed Wade confirmed they have been active in trade talks, but that's as far as it went:
“We’ve exchanged some trade proposals with teams today and we were prepared to move forward if they were embraced, and they weren’t.”
One possible area the Astros could upgrade at 2B is with former Brewer/Red Sock(x) Bill Hall, and had conversations with Hall's agent.
The Astros are interested in Ryan Rowland-Smith.
Expect the Astros to be active in tomorrow's Rule 5 draft.
Somehow, the Astros were interested in Ty Wigginton, before he mercifully signed with Colorado.
Wandy Rodriguez changed agents, from Barry Praver to Adam Katz. Adam Katz also represents Carlos Lee.
The Astros are interested in Jack Cust, as are the Mariners.
Ed Wade confirmed they have been active in trade talks, but that's as far as it went:
“We’ve exchanged some trade proposals with teams today and we were prepared to move forward if they were embraced, and they weren’t.”
One possible area the Astros could upgrade at 2B is with former Brewer/Red Sock(x) Bill Hall, and had conversations with Hall's agent.
The Astros are interested in Ryan Rowland-Smith.
Expect the Astros to be active in tomorrow's Rule 5 draft.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
McTaggart: The longer this goes on, the less likely the deals
A note from McTaggart:
The longer the Winter Meetings drag on, the less convinced I am the Astros will make any deals. Sure, that's an easy assessment to make, but based on conversations with some in the organization, I feel there's a decent chance Brian Bogusevic will be the club's left fielder in a platoon situation with Jason Michaels in the event Carlos Lee is at first base.
The longer the Winter Meetings drag on, the less convinced I am the Astros will make any deals. Sure, that's an easy assessment to make, but based on conversations with some in the organization, I feel there's a decent chance Brian Bogusevic will be the club's left fielder in a platoon situation with Jason Michaels in the event Carlos Lee is at first base.
Monday, December 6, 2010
The Rockies could be interested in Lindstrom
The Denver Post's Troy E. Renck just posted that the Rockies would have interest in Lindstrom, but aren't sure if there's a match in a trade.
How about Felipe Paulino?
How about Felipe Paulino?
Hey-oh!
Brian McTaggart says the Astros have been asked about Bourn, Pence, and Wandy.
Zach Levine tweets (about the same time) a quote from Ed Wade:
"Generally speaking, we're going to be very, very, very reluctant to talk about the young players in our system."
Zach Levine tweets (about the same time) a quote from Ed Wade:
"Generally speaking, we're going to be very, very, very reluctant to talk about the young players in our system."
Add Matt Diaz to the list of corner outfielders the Astros are interested in
With a captip to MLBTR, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution adds the Astros to the list of teams interested in Matt Diaz.
Crasnick: Astros think Wallace will get to see what Bricktown is all about
According to Jerry Crasnick the Astros think Brett Wallace may need to start 2011 in Oklahoma City:
"He's a big league player," said a Houston person. But he hit .222 last year
"He's a big league player," said a Houston person. But he hit .222 last year
Keppinger and Lindstrom are available, if anyone wants them
According to a front office source, FanHouse's Ed Price says the Astros are making Keppinger and Lindstrom available in an effort to further cut payroll.
McTaggart says payroll will be around $70 million, down from over $90 million last year. Why is it being trimmed further? According to Price, because of the impending sale of the franchise.
Yeah, the $4-5 million that Lindstrom and Keppinger will make combined is the problem with the payroll...
UPDATE: There may be a better reason out there. As AstroBrit and 77340fan have pointed out, coming on the heels of the "Astros interested in Hardy" note, dealing Keppinger could move Barmes to second, and sign Hardy. Excellent point. One to keep an eye on...
McTaggart says payroll will be around $70 million, down from over $90 million last year. Why is it being trimmed further? According to Price, because of the impending sale of the franchise.
Yeah, the $4-5 million that Lindstrom and Keppinger will make combined is the problem with the payroll...
UPDATE: There may be a better reason out there. As AstroBrit and 77340fan have pointed out, coming on the heels of the "Astros interested in Hardy" note, dealing Keppinger could move Barmes to second, and sign Hardy. Excellent point. One to keep an eye on...
Astros interested in J.J. Hardy
The Astros are apparently one of six teams interested in Twins shortstop J.J. Hardy, according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
Not so sure about the validity of this, given that whole Clint Barmes thing, and all...
Not so sure about the validity of this, given that whole Clint Barmes thing, and all...
The Cardinals' lineup with Berkman
Tony LaRussa addressed the lineup yesterday, and just where Berkman would hit.
LaRussa:
"I believe he fits you best in the middle. I really believe we just got deeper in the middle of our order. You talk about a track record hitter in the middle and he's got it. I'd put him in the top five or six in the league. I see him hitting fourth if Matt doesn't play, fifth if he does."
LaRussa:
"I believe he fits you best in the middle. I really believe we just got deeper in the middle of our order. You talk about a track record hitter in the middle and he's got it. I'd put him in the top five or six in the league. I see him hitting fourth if Matt doesn't play, fifth if he does."
How should you feel about Berkman?
After taking a couple of days to consider just what in the hell happened, here's a guide to how you currently feel vs. how you should probably feel.
Mad as hell
If you're mad as hell, the key is questioning just who you're mad at:
Are you mad at Berkman? Not so fast, my friend. He got $8 million to play on a team with Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols - one that is a playoff contender.
Berkman:
"I can understand why people would feel that way, but really I'm not motivated by revenge. I'm not looking to come back in here and do anybody any harm or any damage. I just feel like St. Louis has a good team. it's a good city to play baseball in. I like the opportunity."
Are you mad at Ed Wade? If this is the overwhelming emotion you feel, it's probably the most appropriate, given the circumstances.
More Berkman:
"If it couldn't be here, this is the next place I wanted to be. The first call we made was to Houston. When that one didn't work out, the very next one was to St. Louis."
It was Ed Wade who told him, "No, thanks." When Wade made that decision, he knew Berkman wanted to play everyday, and play in the National League. Even though the Cardinals have to re-sign Pujols (and this is out-of-the-blue news), Wade should have considered the possibility Berkman would sign with the Cubs or Cardinals.
However, how did you feel when the Astros traded him? Relieved? Then what's the problem? He didn't (really) hit for the Yankees, why do you think he's going to hit for the Cardinals? If you thought his stock was falling, shouldn't it be a good thing that Berkman is going to a division rival, and playing a more demanding position?
Are you mad at the Cardinals? We're totally fine with that.
Sad
This is probably the dominant emotion. If you thought seeing Berkman in pinstripes was weird, wait until you see him with birds on the bat. If you're around the age of 30, then Berkman was a dominant part of your formative baseball years, and not the "I like baseball, and ice cream" years. The years where you first started paying attention to things like OBP, and SLG. The years where you felt like everyone in baseball owed you a handshake for 2004 and 2005. In your heart, you know that Berkman isn't the same player, but it kills you to think that he signed with the Cardinals out of spite, and he just might play a huge role in getting the Cardinals to the playoffs, and will play the Astros 18 times. So he's no longer out-of-sight out-of-mind. Sadness is a completely acceptable emotion.
Indifferent
This is a rather advanced emotion, similar to telling your friends that you like Animal Collective: it's impressive to say it, but deep down, you likely know that it's not true.
How you should treat Berkman upon his return in April
If you boo him, you're a jacknut. Granted, within a few minutes of the news, The Constable posted a rather hasty, violent tweet about Berkman. But that was a fit of passion (and he has been dealt with sternly). Do not hold it against Berkman. This isn't a Johnny Damon scenario, and while we can't remember a time that a significant Astro went to a division rival (Trever Miller doesn't count), it's just not the same. He wanted to come back, was rebuffed, and whether spite played into it or not, he gave the Astros the first crack at his services.
That said, if this stokes your hatred of the Cardinals and all they represent, so much the better.
Mad as hell
If you're mad as hell, the key is questioning just who you're mad at:
Are you mad at Berkman? Not so fast, my friend. He got $8 million to play on a team with Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols - one that is a playoff contender.
Berkman:
"I can understand why people would feel that way, but really I'm not motivated by revenge. I'm not looking to come back in here and do anybody any harm or any damage. I just feel like St. Louis has a good team. it's a good city to play baseball in. I like the opportunity."
Are you mad at Ed Wade? If this is the overwhelming emotion you feel, it's probably the most appropriate, given the circumstances.
More Berkman:
"If it couldn't be here, this is the next place I wanted to be. The first call we made was to Houston. When that one didn't work out, the very next one was to St. Louis."
It was Ed Wade who told him, "No, thanks." When Wade made that decision, he knew Berkman wanted to play everyday, and play in the National League. Even though the Cardinals have to re-sign Pujols (and this is out-of-the-blue news), Wade should have considered the possibility Berkman would sign with the Cubs or Cardinals.
However, how did you feel when the Astros traded him? Relieved? Then what's the problem? He didn't (really) hit for the Yankees, why do you think he's going to hit for the Cardinals? If you thought his stock was falling, shouldn't it be a good thing that Berkman is going to a division rival, and playing a more demanding position?
Are you mad at the Cardinals? We're totally fine with that.
Sad
This is probably the dominant emotion. If you thought seeing Berkman in pinstripes was weird, wait until you see him with birds on the bat. If you're around the age of 30, then Berkman was a dominant part of your formative baseball years, and not the "I like baseball, and ice cream" years. The years where you first started paying attention to things like OBP, and SLG. The years where you felt like everyone in baseball owed you a handshake for 2004 and 2005. In your heart, you know that Berkman isn't the same player, but it kills you to think that he signed with the Cardinals out of spite, and he just might play a huge role in getting the Cardinals to the playoffs, and will play the Astros 18 times. So he's no longer out-of-sight out-of-mind. Sadness is a completely acceptable emotion.
Indifferent
This is a rather advanced emotion, similar to telling your friends that you like Animal Collective: it's impressive to say it, but deep down, you likely know that it's not true.
How you should treat Berkman upon his return in April
If you boo him, you're a jacknut. Granted, within a few minutes of the news, The Constable posted a rather hasty, violent tweet about Berkman. But that was a fit of passion (and he has been dealt with sternly). Do not hold it against Berkman. This isn't a Johnny Damon scenario, and while we can't remember a time that a significant Astro went to a division rival (Trever Miller doesn't count), it's just not the same. He wanted to come back, was rebuffed, and whether spite played into it or not, he gave the Astros the first crack at his services.
That said, if this stokes your hatred of the Cardinals and all they represent, so much the better.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Berkman breaks our hearts
Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi is tweeting that Lance has signed with the Cardinals. Waiting on details while we pick up the pieces of our shattered hearts.
Heyman says (forgive the lack of links, doing this from the phone) the deal is 1yr/$8m, and Berkman will move to left field, with Holliday going to right.
Heyman says (forgive the lack of links, doing this from the phone) the deal is 1yr/$8m, and Berkman will move to left field, with Holliday going to right.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Richard Griffin doesn't even consider Bagwell for the HOF
I'm sure we're going to see this more often as writers come clean about whom they are considering for the Hall of Fame. And we will be equally as outraged as we are now - when Jeff Bagwell doesn't even get a mention:
FIRST BASE (7): Jeff Bagwell, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro. It’s a strong list, but the Steroid Era has surely had an effect on the psyche of voters. McGwire has come clean about his steroid use and has re-entered the mainstream as Cardinals hitting coach, but it will take more than that to get him to 70 per cent. Palmeiro is on for the first time and it will be interesting to see the reaction of voters.
I am considering McGriff. The pinstripes are what Tino and Mattingly have on their side, but it’s not enough. Olerud broke in with a bang with the Jays, but falls short of Hall greatness.
FIRST BASE (7): Jeff Bagwell, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro. It’s a strong list, but the Steroid Era has surely had an effect on the psyche of voters. McGwire has come clean about his steroid use and has re-entered the mainstream as Cardinals hitting coach, but it will take more than that to get him to 70 per cent. Palmeiro is on for the first time and it will be interesting to see the reaction of voters.
I am considering McGriff. The pinstripes are what Tino and Mattingly have on their side, but it’s not enough. Olerud broke in with a bang with the Jays, but falls short of Hall greatness.
Non-Tender Deadline recap
So here's the awesome part about being sick. I was asleep at 6:45 last night. So we totally missed the news about whom the Astros offered contracts, and whom they did not.
The Astros tendered offers to Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Lindstrom, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Clint Barmes, and Jeff Keppinger.
Who does that leave out? Sammy Gervacio, whom the Astros would still like to bring back. Wade:
“We want Sammy to be part of our club, but we wanted the protection from having to keep him on our major league DL. We were prepared to tender everyone else on the roster.”
More Wade:
"It's really a move of economics more than anything because of the uncertainty of his status going into Spring Training. Had he been injured coming into Spring Training and unable to perform, we would have had to carry him on the Major League disabled list. While we're protecting ourselves with respect to the tender, we still want Sammy to be part of our picture going forward."
Levine says the Astros plan to offer Gervacio a deal later in the off-season, but given Gervacio's injury history - which basically started about 15 minutes after the season began - might be trying to fill his spot externally before deciding on bringing him back.
We also learn what most of you probably heard last week - but Astros County was on radio silence - Tim Byrdak and Gustavo Chacin have both opted for free agency, instead of taking the assignment back to Oklahoma City.
The Astros tendered offers to Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Lindstrom, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Clint Barmes, and Jeff Keppinger.
Who does that leave out? Sammy Gervacio, whom the Astros would still like to bring back. Wade:
“We want Sammy to be part of our club, but we wanted the protection from having to keep him on our major league DL. We were prepared to tender everyone else on the roster.”
More Wade:
"It's really a move of economics more than anything because of the uncertainty of his status going into Spring Training. Had he been injured coming into Spring Training and unable to perform, we would have had to carry him on the Major League disabled list. While we're protecting ourselves with respect to the tender, we still want Sammy to be part of our picture going forward."
Levine says the Astros plan to offer Gervacio a deal later in the off-season, but given Gervacio's injury history - which basically started about 15 minutes after the season began - might be trying to fill his spot externally before deciding on bringing him back.
We also learn what most of you probably heard last week - but Astros County was on radio silence - Tim Byrdak and Gustavo Chacin have both opted for free agency, instead of taking the assignment back to Oklahoma City.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
LaRussa is trying to recruit Berkman to come to STL
KMOV's Doug Vaughn says the Cardinals should sign Lance as a possible LF and backup plan for if Pujols decides he wants enough money to start his own baseball league.
Vaughn:
Berkman says he wants to play for a team that has a chance to win. Tony La Russa said on KFNS radio that he's trying to recruit Berkman to St. Louis.
Vaughn:
Berkman says he wants to play for a team that has a chance to win. Tony La Russa said on KFNS radio that he's trying to recruit Berkman to St. Louis.
Sugar Land adopts the worst possible name for their Independent team
You've got to be kidding me. SB Houston got the link first, and the Sugar Land team is called...The Skeeters. Not kidding.
My interest in this team just fell by 400%. Read SBN's post for some sexual hilarity.
My interest in this team just fell by 400%. Read SBN's post for some sexual hilarity.
Berkman to Colorado gaining some traction
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post says that Berkman is "strongly considering" going to Colorado, with the Rockies hoping that Berkman's desire to stay in the NL will seal the deal.
Berkman and Todd Helton share the same agent, and Helton is reported (by Renck) to be open to the idea of Berkman joining the team.
Renck lists some other teams interested in Berkman:
He also has interest from the Cardinals, Blue Jays and Athletics, among others.
Would Berkman go to St. Louis? I guess Ed Wade may be trying to recount that short conversation he had telling Berkman the Astros weren't interested. Just to remember if he swore at him...
Berkman and Todd Helton share the same agent, and Helton is reported (by Renck) to be open to the idea of Berkman joining the team.
Renck lists some other teams interested in Berkman:
He also has interest from the Cardinals, Blue Jays and Athletics, among others.
Would Berkman go to St. Louis? I guess Ed Wade may be trying to recount that short conversation he had telling Berkman the Astros weren't interested. Just to remember if he swore at him...
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Berkman about to be a Rockie?
There's a Denver Post article in which the Rockies are reportedly getting close to signing Berkman.
It would be a good move for him, especially over Oakland, where he could stay in the NL and launch the ball like it was 2004.
It would be a good move for him, especially over Oakland, where he could stay in the NL and launch the ball like it was 2004.
Hey, Fernando Nieve got a job!
Fernando Nieve was signed by the Pirates today! Good for him, we think.
Figueroa signs, avoids arbitration
The Astros have signed Nelson Figueroa to a one-year, $900K deal, sez Zach Levine.
This is a low-risk move by the Astros. They have their long-relief/spot starter for a low price, and meet their quota of having someone old enough to have played for Leo Durocher on the roster.
This is a low-risk move by the Astros. They have their long-relief/spot starter for a low price, and meet their quota of having someone old enough to have played for Leo Durocher on the roster.
Rumble! Grumble!
Jayson Stark's new Rumblings & Grumblings column addresses the short-term future of young Brett Wallace:
The Houston Astros have been quietly poking around for a low-budget left-handed-hitting outfielder. And that's an indication they're leaning toward moving Carlos Lee to first base to give Brett Wallace a chance to go back to Triple-A and get more big-league-ready. But here's the question people are asking about that scenario: Are they prepared to move Lee back to left field when Wallace gets it all together? They'd better be because Lee has $18.5 million coming in 2011 and 2012, so he isn't particularly tradable.
So. This little nugget affects not only Wallace and Lee, but also Koby Clemens (presumably OKC's 1B1 in 2011), Brian Bogusevic, and Jack Shuck. I also like how Stark is envisioning Wallace "getting it together" sometime this season. We'll know by the Winter Meetings what LFs are out there, so the speculation can begin Friday, after the non-tender deadline.
The Houston Astros have been quietly poking around for a low-budget left-handed-hitting outfielder. And that's an indication they're leaning toward moving Carlos Lee to first base to give Brett Wallace a chance to go back to Triple-A and get more big-league-ready. But here's the question people are asking about that scenario: Are they prepared to move Lee back to left field when Wallace gets it all together? They'd better be because Lee has $18.5 million coming in 2011 and 2012, so he isn't particularly tradable.
So. This little nugget affects not only Wallace and Lee, but also Koby Clemens (presumably OKC's 1B1 in 2011), Brian Bogusevic, and Jack Shuck. I also like how Stark is envisioning Wallace "getting it together" sometime this season. We'll know by the Winter Meetings what LFs are out there, so the speculation can begin Friday, after the non-tender deadline.
Ed Wade to take his time, thank you very much
Just because the Astros need just about every player still eligible for arbitration, it doesn't mean Wade won't take his time to decide for sure.
Wade:
"We think all the arbitration-eligible players we have on the roster have a chance to help us next year. How that's affected by the tender deadline remains to be seen. We think the profile of the players who are still arbitration-eligible and still unsigned is significant enough that we think they all factor for us next year. That said, we have to use all of the remaining time to try to make the right decisions."
Wade:
"We think all the arbitration-eligible players we have on the roster have a chance to help us next year. How that's affected by the tender deadline remains to be seen. We think the profile of the players who are still arbitration-eligible and still unsigned is significant enough that we think they all factor for us next year. That said, we have to use all of the remaining time to try to make the right decisions."
DeFrancesco introduced in OKC
The Astros introduced new OKC manager Tony DeFrancesco yesterday at a press conference.
On why he left the A's organization after so long:
“In baseball, you can move in a lot of directions. I had spent so many years with the A’s and managing in Sacramento, I thought it was time to go out there and see what else was available. I couldn’t be more thrilled to be the manager of this team.”
On why he left the A's organization after so long:
“In baseball, you can move in a lot of directions. I had spent so many years with the A’s and managing in Sacramento, I thought it was time to go out there and see what else was available. I couldn’t be more thrilled to be the manager of this team.”
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Hal Bodley speaks on Bagwell's HOF chances
Click here to watch a video of MLB.com's Hal Bodley breaking down Jeff Bagwell's Hall of Fame chances.
The money quote, transcribed:
I suspect, ultimately, he'll be in the Hall of Fame...Is he a first-ballot electee? I don't think so, and I suspect that's the way the voters are going to respond.
The money quote, transcribed:
I suspect, ultimately, he'll be in the Hall of Fame...Is he a first-ballot electee? I don't think so, and I suspect that's the way the voters are going to respond.
Maybe that Wandy long-term deal isn't true, after all
This is what you get for churning out posts without regard to feelings or intentions. Brian McTaggart, in his Quintero reaction piece throws a little sand, or gasoline (who knows), on the Wandy negotiations:
Contrary to a published report, the Astros aren't in conversations with Rodriguez about a multiyear contract. Wade said the club kicked around the idea with Rodriguez's representatives earlier in the year, but they are not involved in active multiyear negotiations at this time. He will be a free agent after the 2011 season.
BOOM!
Contrary to a published report, the Astros aren't in conversations with Rodriguez about a multiyear contract. Wade said the club kicked around the idea with Rodriguez's representatives earlier in the year, but they are not involved in active multiyear negotiations at this time. He will be a free agent after the 2011 season.
BOOM!
Chris Wallace gets a nice little honor
2010 16th Round draft pick/UH alum Chris Wallace made the ultra-slashed2010 Topps/Minor League Baseball Short Season/Rookie All-Star Team as a Designated Hitter.
UPDATE: And Jose Perdomo got some love, as the All-Star Team pitcher.
UPDATE: And Jose Perdomo got some love, as the All-Star Team pitcher.
Astros avoid arbitration with Quintero
According to a team press release, linked to by MLBTR, and tweeted by the Crawfish Boxes (the things that happen while you step away to use the restroom and play Angry Birds), the Astros have avoided arbitration with Humberto Quintero.
Brett Myers' Personal Catcher (waiting on confirmation from the Astros that will be on Q's jersey) will receive $1m plus incentive bonuses. That's about a quarter of a million dollars more than he made last year. And if he gets Myers another 30 straight quality starts, I'll take it.
Brett Myers' Personal Catcher (waiting on confirmation from the Astros that will be on Q's jersey) will receive $1m plus incentive bonuses. That's about a quarter of a million dollars more than he made last year. And if he gets Myers another 30 straight quality starts, I'll take it.
McTaggart: Everybody gets a contract!
Short version: All eight Astros are likely to get tendered a contract by Thursday's deadline.
Long version.
Long version.
De La Rosa deal likely to affect negotiations with Wandy
So Colorado pitcher Jorge De La Rosa's new deal, worth 3 years/$32 million, is probably going to impact Wandy's negotiations for his own long-term deal.
Some statistics, if you don't mind:
Jorge De La Rosa - 29 years old (will be 30 on April 5).
2010: 8-7 in 20 starts, with 4.22 ERA / 1.32 WHIP. 2.05 K:BB ratio, 110 ERA+, with 7.8 hits/9 innings.
Career (2004-10): 49-47. 5.02 ERA / 1.52 WHIP. 1.75 K:BB ratio, 92 ERA+, with 9.2 hits/9 innings.
Wandy Rodriguez - 31 years old (will be 32 on January 18).
2010: 11-12 in 32 starts, with 3.60 ERA / 1.29 WHIP. 2.62 K:BB ratio, 108 ERA+, with 8.4 hits/9 innings.
Career (2005-10): 62-64. 4.18 ERA / 1.35 WHIP. 2.37 K:BB ratio, 101 ERA+, with 8.9 hits/9 innings.
They're similar pitchers, with similar numbers, and a slight edge going to Wandy. That said, when we said we'd be comfortable with Wandy getting 3yrs/$20m yesterday, there's no way that happens now - unless Wandy's agent is a complete bubbleguts. We'll go ahead and adjust Wandy's projection to 3yrs/$33m-36m.
Thoughts?
Some statistics, if you don't mind:
Jorge De La Rosa - 29 years old (will be 30 on April 5).
2010: 8-7 in 20 starts, with 4.22 ERA / 1.32 WHIP. 2.05 K:BB ratio, 110 ERA+, with 7.8 hits/9 innings.
Career (2004-10): 49-47. 5.02 ERA / 1.52 WHIP. 1.75 K:BB ratio, 92 ERA+, with 9.2 hits/9 innings.
Wandy Rodriguez - 31 years old (will be 32 on January 18).
2010: 11-12 in 32 starts, with 3.60 ERA / 1.29 WHIP. 2.62 K:BB ratio, 108 ERA+, with 8.4 hits/9 innings.
Career (2005-10): 62-64. 4.18 ERA / 1.35 WHIP. 2.37 K:BB ratio, 101 ERA+, with 8.9 hits/9 innings.
They're similar pitchers, with similar numbers, and a slight edge going to Wandy. That said, when we said we'd be comfortable with Wandy getting 3yrs/$20m yesterday, there's no way that happens now - unless Wandy's agent is a complete bubbleguts. We'll go ahead and adjust Wandy's projection to 3yrs/$33m-36m.
Thoughts?
Winter Meetings likely to be boring as hell
Brian McTaggart talked to Ed Wade about the Winter Meetings, which begin next Monday.
Ed Wade:
I don't see us being really active at the Winter Meetings unless we're engaged in specific trade discussions at that point, but I envision it being quiet for us. As we've indicated, we've got some payroll limitations that we're working through, and that being the case, it will be a challenge being out there and be overly aggressive in the free-agent market. That doesn't mean we're not going to work to get things done, but I look at it in a realistic context. I don't envision us being as active as we were last year."
But here's an interesting note from McTaggart:
As is the case with the outfield spot, Houston may choose to find a starting pitcher internally. Wade said top prospect Jordan Lyles will likely be invited to spring camp to compete for a spot, and the team has kicked around the idea of putting young relievers Fernando Abad or Henry Villar in the rotation.
As of now, your rotation is: Myers, Happ, Wandy, Norris, and...someone else. Lyles just turned 20 in October. The last time the Astros had a 20-year old appear in more than a handful of games in September was in 1977, when Terry Puhl got in 60 games (and had a .786 OPS, by the by).
Villar started making that transition in Corpus earlier this season. What do you think about transitioning either him or Abad to the rotation?
Ed Wade:
I don't see us being really active at the Winter Meetings unless we're engaged in specific trade discussions at that point, but I envision it being quiet for us. As we've indicated, we've got some payroll limitations that we're working through, and that being the case, it will be a challenge being out there and be overly aggressive in the free-agent market. That doesn't mean we're not going to work to get things done, but I look at it in a realistic context. I don't envision us being as active as we were last year."
But here's an interesting note from McTaggart:
As is the case with the outfield spot, Houston may choose to find a starting pitcher internally. Wade said top prospect Jordan Lyles will likely be invited to spring camp to compete for a spot, and the team has kicked around the idea of putting young relievers Fernando Abad or Henry Villar in the rotation.
As of now, your rotation is: Myers, Happ, Wandy, Norris, and...someone else. Lyles just turned 20 in October. The last time the Astros had a 20-year old appear in more than a handful of games in September was in 1977, when Terry Puhl got in 60 games (and had a .786 OPS, by the by).
Villar started making that transition in Corpus earlier this season. What do you think about transitioning either him or Abad to the rotation?
Berkman to meet with Oakland
I don't even know why this should even be mentioned, seeing as how Berkman is not - and likely won't be - with the Astros anymore (except perhaps in a Special Assistant to the GM role, and probably not Specially Assisting Ed Wade) - but Lance is meeting with the Oakland A's.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Does Bagwell belong in the Hall of Fame?
Brian McTaggart has an article today on Bagwell's candidacy for the Hall of Fame - as this is his first time on the ballot. If you ask any Astros fan whether or not Bagwell should be enshrined in Cooperstown, we can guarantee you that he would meet the required 75% to get in. But Base Ball (yes, two words) Writers aren't typically Astros fans. So we must think about this objectively.
First, some stats. Bagwell basically played from 1991-2004. He played in 39 games in 2005, but that doesn't really count (too much, anyway). So here's what you get in those 13 full seasons - counting 1994 as a full season.
2111 games, 7697 ABs, .297/.408/.542, 446 homers, 1510 RBI, .948 OPS, 149 OPS+.
Rookie of the Year in 1991, MVP in 1994. Four-time All-Star. Top 10 in MVP voting six times. Top 5 in MVP voting three times.
Baseball-Reference's Gray Ink test gives Bagwell 157 points. The average Hall of Famer has a Gray Ink score of 144. B-R's Hall of Fame Monitor gives him 150 points, where a "Likely Hall of Famer" comes in at 100. And B-R's Hall of Fame Standards scores him a 59 (36th-highest of all time), where an Average HOFer is set at 50.
So by those standards, sure. How about Similarity Scores? The players Bagwell scores most similarly to is, in order, Chipper Jones, Carlos Delgado, Frank Thomas, Fred McGriff, Andres Galarraga, Willie Stargell, Vladimir Guerrero, Orlando Cepeda, Jason Giambi, and Jim Thome. Of those ten, Stargell and Cepeda are already Hall of Famers.
But the problem is the era in which he played, and it's an era that is basically denoted with an implied asterisk. Anyone who put up big numbers from 1991-2004 (and whose body subsequently broke down fairly rapidly) is looked at with one eyebrow at half staff.
Still, if you're of the opinion that he should be considered innocent until proven guilty (which would be mighty American of you. Well, 1791 American. Not necessarily 2010 American), then he needs to be considered against other 1Bs of his time. So let's look at that:
Scratch that. I had a table all put together comparing Bagwell's Avg/OPS/SLG and OPS+ to all MLB 1Bs but it was such a large set of numbers that it was actually much more difficult to read. The important thing to note is that Bagwell's OPS+ was higher than the average for MLB 1Bs from 1991-2003, and his 115 OPS+ in 2004 was just a tick lower than the average tOPS+ for MLB 1B of 116.
Also:
Career WAR of 79.9 is 57th of all-time.
Career OBP of .408 is 40th of all-time.
Career SLG of .540 is 35th of all-time.
Career OPS of .948 is 21st of all-time.
Career OPS+ of 149 is 37th of all-time.
Finished in the Top 10 in OPS+ nine times (including eight in a row from 1993-2000)
Career 1788 Runs Created is 37th of all-time.
Career 619 Adjusted Batting Runs is 21st of all-time.
Now, you can make statistics say whatever you want them to say, but in just about every offensive facet of the game - even when taking the era into account - he was among the best first basemen in the game for 13 years.
Honestly, did you really think you would read an Astros blog that said Bagwell didn't belong in the Hall of Fame? Of course, "Does he belong?" and "Will he belong?" are two totally separate questions.
First, some stats. Bagwell basically played from 1991-2004. He played in 39 games in 2005, but that doesn't really count (too much, anyway). So here's what you get in those 13 full seasons - counting 1994 as a full season.
2111 games, 7697 ABs, .297/.408/.542, 446 homers, 1510 RBI, .948 OPS, 149 OPS+.
Rookie of the Year in 1991, MVP in 1994. Four-time All-Star. Top 10 in MVP voting six times. Top 5 in MVP voting three times.
Baseball-Reference's Gray Ink test gives Bagwell 157 points. The average Hall of Famer has a Gray Ink score of 144. B-R's Hall of Fame Monitor gives him 150 points, where a "Likely Hall of Famer" comes in at 100. And B-R's Hall of Fame Standards scores him a 59 (36th-highest of all time), where an Average HOFer is set at 50.
So by those standards, sure. How about Similarity Scores? The players Bagwell scores most similarly to is, in order, Chipper Jones, Carlos Delgado, Frank Thomas, Fred McGriff, Andres Galarraga, Willie Stargell, Vladimir Guerrero, Orlando Cepeda, Jason Giambi, and Jim Thome. Of those ten, Stargell and Cepeda are already Hall of Famers.
But the problem is the era in which he played, and it's an era that is basically denoted with an implied asterisk. Anyone who put up big numbers from 1991-2004 (and whose body subsequently broke down fairly rapidly) is looked at with one eyebrow at half staff.
Still, if you're of the opinion that he should be considered innocent until proven guilty (which would be mighty American of you. Well, 1791 American. Not necessarily 2010 American), then he needs to be considered against other 1Bs of his time. So let's look at that:
Scratch that. I had a table all put together comparing Bagwell's Avg/OPS/SLG and OPS+ to all MLB 1Bs but it was such a large set of numbers that it was actually much more difficult to read. The important thing to note is that Bagwell's OPS+ was higher than the average for MLB 1Bs from 1991-2003, and his 115 OPS+ in 2004 was just a tick lower than the average tOPS+ for MLB 1B of 116.
Also:
Career WAR of 79.9 is 57th of all-time.
Career OBP of .408 is 40th of all-time.
Career SLG of .540 is 35th of all-time.
Career OPS of .948 is 21st of all-time.
Career OPS+ of 149 is 37th of all-time.
Finished in the Top 10 in OPS+ nine times (including eight in a row from 1993-2000)
Career 1788 Runs Created is 37th of all-time.
Career 619 Adjusted Batting Runs is 21st of all-time.
Now, you can make statistics say whatever you want them to say, but in just about every offensive facet of the game - even when taking the era into account - he was among the best first basemen in the game for 13 years.
Honestly, did you really think you would read an Astros blog that said Bagwell didn't belong in the Hall of Fame? Of course, "Does he belong?" and "Will he belong?" are two totally separate questions.
Astros talking long-term with Wandy, tell Bourn and Pence to piss off
Maybe not in those terms. But still, the Astros have discussed a long-term deal with Wandy Rodriguez, but as Zach Levine reports, "are unlikely" to do the same with Bourn and Pence.
Of course the reasoning is that this is Wandy's final year of arbitration eligibility, while Bourn won't become a free agent until 2013, and Pence until 2014.
How long-term? If I were Ed Wade - which, of course, I'm not - I would be hesitant to offer any more than three years for Wandy. He lost his arbitration case last year, being forced to subsist on $5 million for 2010. What terms would you offer for Wandy? I'd be comfortable with 3 years/$20 million, especially with Arnsberg on staff.
Of course the reasoning is that this is Wandy's final year of arbitration eligibility, while Bourn won't become a free agent until 2013, and Pence until 2014.
How long-term? If I were Ed Wade - which, of course, I'm not - I would be hesitant to offer any more than three years for Wandy. He lost his arbitration case last year, being forced to subsist on $5 million for 2010. What terms would you offer for Wandy? I'd be comfortable with 3 years/$20 million, especially with Arnsberg on staff.
Just how close the Astros were to drafting Jeter
Baseball America has a good read today, giving a little insight into why the Astros didn't draft Jeter with the #1 overall pick in 1992 - going instead with Phil Nevin:
In his book "The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty," Buster Olney details how Hall of Fame pitcher Hal Newhouser, the Astros' area scout responsible for covering Jeter as Kalamazoo (Mich.) Central High, told Houston brass that Jeter was a special player and person. There were rumors Jeter wanted a seven-figure bonus to pass up a Michigan scholarship, however, and Houston was worried about signability as much as ability.
The Astros were in the process of being sold, and they had declined to sign No. 6 overall choice John Burke when he held out for $500,000 the year before. Houston was determined to work out bonus parameters with 1992's top pick before the draft, and did exactly that, negotiating a $700,000 deal with Nevin...
...As for Jeter, he signed for the same $700,000 that the Astros gave Nevin. Disgusted that his team disregarded his judgment, Newhouser quit his job with Houston.
Anyone else see the irony in previous ownership not wanting to spend money on the draft?
In his book "The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty," Buster Olney details how Hall of Fame pitcher Hal Newhouser, the Astros' area scout responsible for covering Jeter as Kalamazoo (Mich.) Central High, told Houston brass that Jeter was a special player and person. There were rumors Jeter wanted a seven-figure bonus to pass up a Michigan scholarship, however, and Houston was worried about signability as much as ability.
The Astros were in the process of being sold, and they had declined to sign No. 6 overall choice John Burke when he held out for $500,000 the year before. Houston was determined to work out bonus parameters with 1992's top pick before the draft, and did exactly that, negotiating a $700,000 deal with Nevin...
...As for Jeter, he signed for the same $700,000 that the Astros gave Nevin. Disgusted that his team disregarded his judgment, Newhouser quit his job with Houston.
Anyone else see the irony in previous ownership not wanting to spend money on the draft?
Berkman is so over Houston
Richard Justice is here to talk about the past, and Lance Berkman's future. Presumably because those are two different things.
Berkman, on being turned down by Ed Wade for a year-long prom date:
"After initially being pretty disappointed, I've gotten over it. Now my focus is on who is going to contend that wants me to play for them. There's been a lot of interest — Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, A's, Pirates, Blue Jays, a bunch of teams. I haven't had a single offer in terms of X amount of dollars, but I think this is the time of the year when there's a lot of tire-kicking."
Note: three of the teams that Berkman mentioned are NL Central teams. He has already said he wants to play for a contender, so presumably the Pirates are out, but we'll see what happens if it's February, and Berkman is still looking for a job.
Berkman, on being turned down by Ed Wade for a year-long prom date:
"After initially being pretty disappointed, I've gotten over it. Now my focus is on who is going to contend that wants me to play for them. There's been a lot of interest — Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, A's, Pirates, Blue Jays, a bunch of teams. I haven't had a single offer in terms of X amount of dollars, but I think this is the time of the year when there's a lot of tire-kicking."
Note: three of the teams that Berkman mentioned are NL Central teams. He has already said he wants to play for a contender, so presumably the Pirates are out, but we'll see what happens if it's February, and Berkman is still looking for a job.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Tranzactionz
While Astros County has been placed on a strict "no phone" policy for the holiday, we give a big captip to Appy Astros for the link to the latest transactions from Baseball America.
Re-signed P Edwin Walker
Released:
RHP Rafael Feliz
RHP John Frawley
RHP Justin Harper
RHP Ashton Mowdy
RHP Daniel Sarisky
RHP Mike Schurz
LHP David Duncan
1B Aaron Bray
1B Mark Ori
1B Nick Stanley
3B Ricardo Garcia
OF Frank Almonte
OF Ricardo Heredia
Obviously the one that hits hardest for us is the releasing of Our Boy Aaron Bray.
Re-signed P Edwin Walker
Released:
RHP Rafael Feliz
RHP John Frawley
RHP Justin Harper
RHP Ashton Mowdy
RHP Daniel Sarisky
RHP Mike Schurz
LHP David Duncan
1B Aaron Bray
1B Mark Ori
1B Nick Stanley
3B Ricardo Garcia
OF Frank Almonte
OF Ricardo Heredia
Obviously the one that hits hardest for us is the releasing of Our Boy Aaron Bray.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
File under: Previous Information
MLB.com has a non-McTaggart story up on the long, slow rebuild:
And here's the thing: Astros fans would be wise not to get too far ahead of themselves. There's a reason clubs are hesitant to rebuild. It's a long, slow, painful process. You don't just decide one year to go young, and win 95 games the next year.
Even considering the late surge in 2010, things could be difficult for the Astros in '11. A lot must go right for them to have enough offense to contend. Happ is a useful pitcher, but he's no Oswalt. This is not a team that will be favored to hang with the Reds and Cardinals in the division next season.
But that doesn't mean it's the wrong course.
Wait. What? We won't win 140 games next year? Pshaw. Go back to covering the Cardinals.
And here's the thing: Astros fans would be wise not to get too far ahead of themselves. There's a reason clubs are hesitant to rebuild. It's a long, slow, painful process. You don't just decide one year to go young, and win 95 games the next year.
Even considering the late surge in 2010, things could be difficult for the Astros in '11. A lot must go right for them to have enough offense to contend. Happ is a useful pitcher, but he's no Oswalt. This is not a team that will be favored to hang with the Reds and Cardinals in the division next season.
But that doesn't mean it's the wrong course.
Wait. What? We won't win 140 games next year? Pshaw. Go back to covering the Cardinals.
40-man roster additions
So as the Astros gear up for the Rule 5 draft (in which other teams can poach other teams' players), the Astros have added some guys to the 40-man roster:
RHP David Carpenter
RHP Jorge DeLeon
RHP Arcenio Leon
2B Jimmy Paredes
And have thus been protected from the Rule 5 draft
RHP David Carpenter
RHP Jorge DeLeon
RHP Arcenio Leon
2B Jimmy Paredes
And have thus been protected from the Rule 5 draft
Jim Pankovits gets a promotion, just not with the Astros
Tri-City Manager Jim Pankovits has left the Astros organization, accepting a Double-A managerial position with Seattle's affiliate in Jackson, TN.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Tom Lawless gets hisself a promotion
2010's Lancaster manager Tom Lawless has been promoted to the same position with Double-A Corpus Christi.
He'll be joined by pitching coach Don Alexander, who comes up from Lancaster; and hitting coach Stubby Clapp, who gets a promotion from Lexington.
And in a related note, the Astros announced that they have hired Larry Prado - who signed Ryan Braun for Milwaukee - to scout central and south Florida.
He'll be joined by pitching coach Don Alexander, who comes up from Lancaster; and hitting coach Stubby Clapp, who gets a promotion from Lexington.
And in a related note, the Astros announced that they have hired Larry Prado - who signed Ryan Braun for Milwaukee - to scout central and south Florida.
Astros interested in Brandon McCarthy
Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi says that the Astros are interested in former top pitching prospect Brandon McCarthy.
Morosi:
When healthy, McCarthy was effective this season at Class AAA Oklahoma City in the Texas organization (4-2, 3.36 ERA). But a stress fracture in his right shoulder limited him to just 56 1/3 innings. That is the same injury that hampered his throwing arm in the past.
Morosi:
When healthy, McCarthy was effective this season at Class AAA Oklahoma City in the Texas organization (4-2, 3.36 ERA). But a stress fracture in his right shoulder limited him to just 56 1/3 innings. That is the same injury that hampered his throwing arm in the past.
First Ownership Rumor of the Off-season
Apologies for the lack of posting this weekend. Don't buy a Gateway. That's the Moral of the Weekend.
Anyhow, with a captip to Bernie's Crew, we read that Miles Prentice - owner of Milwaukee's Double-A Huntsville Stars - is interested in buying the Astros:
Drayton:
"I did not know him well. He just contacted me and came down, seven-eight months ago, and he said if I could raise the funds to buy the Astros would you consider it and I said sure. He has a great reputation. He owns (three) minor league teams and has owned minor league teams for 15 years and has a good reputation in the minor leagues and people think highly of him and so I said if you can show me you have the financial wherewithal to do it, he hasn't done that."
This is obviously a poorly-punctuated sentence, but you get the drift. Before getting excited, read Bernie's Crew's take:
The Huntsville Stars have routinely been harassed by the Brewers for not putting money into their facilities. If a man with that type of attitude wishes to purchase the Astros, be my guest.
Note: Kirk Bohls predicted this sequence at the beginning of November.
Anyhow, with a captip to Bernie's Crew, we read that Miles Prentice - owner of Milwaukee's Double-A Huntsville Stars - is interested in buying the Astros:
Drayton:
"I did not know him well. He just contacted me and came down, seven-eight months ago, and he said if I could raise the funds to buy the Astros would you consider it and I said sure. He has a great reputation. He owns (three) minor league teams and has owned minor league teams for 15 years and has a good reputation in the minor leagues and people think highly of him and so I said if you can show me you have the financial wherewithal to do it, he hasn't done that."
This is obviously a poorly-punctuated sentence, but you get the drift. Before getting excited, read Bernie's Crew's take:
The Huntsville Stars have routinely been harassed by the Brewers for not putting money into their facilities. If a man with that type of attitude wishes to purchase the Astros, be my guest.
Note: Kirk Bohls predicted this sequence at the beginning of November.
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