How I learned to buy in to the rebuild

I'm in.

I'm totally on board with what Jeff Luhnow, Sig Mejdal, Mike Fast, Kevin Goldstein, etc. are doing. (Not you, yet, Postolos. I've still got my eye on you.) But before we begin this little writing assignment, we must first examine the alternatives of not buying in to what the Astros are doing.

1. Yell and complain.
2. Become a fan of another team.
3. (...)

That seems to be it. Option 1 is the most rampant and most popular. Soapboxes have been mounted like Trina from 4th period French, yelling about how what the Astros are doing is sullying the pure name of Baseball and how the Astros are ruining the integrity of The Game. And we've mentioned, almost ad nauseum, about how the Astros care not for what the rest of MLB thinks. Nor should they. The Astros shouldn't have to spend an extra $30m in order to keep the Yankees from yelling about how easy the Angels have it.

Option 2 is no option at all. If you bail on the Astros now, you were never an Astros fan to begin with. you just liked Winnin' and that makes you a not-fan. I'm getting to the point where I'm even starting to get over the American League. Some team was going to have to move. And once that team moved to the American League, we were going to have Interleague Play throughout the season, anyway. If you cheat on your significant other as soon as something bad happens, you were going to cheat on them at some point, regardless. That just means you were a latent pudnut, and you're not needed for anything.

So I'm in. But not for reasons that you might expect.

I'm in because the people running this rebuild have far more at stake than we do as fans. Consider the backgrounds of the front office personnel with whom we are at least remotely familiar: MBAs, Ivy Leaguers, Bloggers, Writers, NASA, law.. This is, as you are well aware, not your typical front office.

I bring that up because front office personnel are sort of on a carousel. Ed Wade did not do a great short-term job as General Manager (the long-term evaluation cannot yet be determined). Yet within weeks of his firing as GM, he was back in baseball with the Phillies. This happens across all sports, and isn't surprising. Rather than going out and hiring outside-the-box, owners and CEOs tend to hire a guy who was just determined to be incompetent by a rival.

Yet what the Astros are doing/have done over the last 18 months is unprecedented. It would have been easy enough to not trade Wandy Rodriguez. It would have been easier still to re-sign Lance Berkman this winter. Other major franchise rebuilds have not gone about their business in the way that the Astros have. The Marlins, the fraudulent team with whom every "sports writer" tends to compare the Astros, didn't.

In 1997, the Marlins won the World Series, with Alex Fernandez, Gary Sheffield, Kevin Brown, Moises Alou and a total of 12 players who made over $1m. According to Baseball-Reference, the 1997 Marlins paid $48,417,500 in payroll. The 1998 Marlins came off their fire sale winter (the first Winter of Discontent for "Marlins fans") and paid their players $34,694,667, but still paid Alex Fernandez $7m.

No front office has had the balls to do what the Astros are doing right now. We don't have to go over all the trades of the last two seasons, because it would turn a long post into a tl;dr. Here's the point: I have bought into this rebuild, first and foremost, because I don't have a choice. But second of all, if this doesn't work out - and it may take a while to get the result - the front office is going to have a hard time working in baseball ever again, at least not on this level. And smart people don't like to be ruined in the eyes of their chosen field.

The Astros are staking the reputations of the franchise and their front office on the Astros getting good again very soon. If they don't, they are responsible for the destruction of the Astros - and, no, I don't think that's hyperbole.

The Rangers are good, maybe even great. If you are from Houston and are both morally bankrupt and baseball ambivalent, it's really easy to pull the "Texas Forever!" card and just be a Rangers fan. They're on ESPN all the time. They have Nolan Ryan. Now they have Lance Berkman. Every baseball writer you read has played Just The Tip with the Rangers.

Furthermore, the Texans are good enough that if the Astros aren't within spitting distance of the division lead, even Astros fans are going to check out and pay attention to the Texans (this was brought up in the Feb. 11 Baseball America podcast - and it's absolutely correct.) Good luck getting fans on a Friday night in September, competing with high school football.

I've mentioned this on a number of occasions, but Luhnow & Co. are either going to be Branch Rickey Reincarnate, or they're going to be the reason my kid doesn't like the Astros (and there's no way she's going to be a Rangers fan). If the Scorched Earthstro campaign doesn't work, the Astros are set back for years, and not just on the field, but in the stands.

Of course, no promises can be made. Five years ago you never would have been able to guess that Brett Wallace would get platooned. Prospects - for a variety of reasons - sometimes just don't pan out. They kill it in Lancaster, and get released after struggling in Corpus. They can't adjust to the adjustments the league made to them. The Astros have built such minor-league depth that it's almost like they're throwing spaghetti at a wall and hoping a few key pieces stick.

The Astros are forcing us as fans to make adjustments to the approach. If the front office is going to stake their reputation on their process, I can certainly respect that.

Friday Morning Horror Stories

Stephen King... I mean, Sam Miller, at Baseball Prospectus, tells the horror story of the fall of the Astros from their 2004-2005 heights, as seen through the progression of their 29th ranked 2004 farm system. (The full article requires a subscription, but I think the majority of it is available for free). This is a companion piece to his earlier article outlining the Brewers, who were ranked number 1 at the time. If you would like a detailed analysis of what led to the Astros downfall, this is a good read. I can completely understand if you don't though, as it could lead to some vivid nightmares.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19631

I think this a pretty good response to all those people who are devaluing the current strength of the farm system. Sure, a good farm system doesn't guarantee future success. But it sure beats the alternative.

Survivor: Kissimmee - Day 5

Real-time (sort of) updates for the 5th day of Spring Training.

11:11am: Crane and Postolos will address the team before workouts tomorrow.

9:33am: "Put Your Butts Safely Here...or You're Out"

9:31am: An air-horn is going off in Bo Porter's office.

8:40am: The Astros will use Spring Training to evaluate Chris Carter in LF.

8:39am: "Ideally," Bo Porter says, Tyler Greene will turn into an Ian Desmond-type player.

8:27am: Hector Ambriz (ankle) walking around on crutches in a walking boot.

8:24am: Max Stassi is out again for practice today (Oblique)

7:25am: Rain in Kissimmee means only side bullpens today.

6:51am: Chris Carter shows up to camp (on-time, mind you, just after almost everybody else).

No Reid Brignac

Reid Brignac has been traded to the Colorado Rockies, ending the Houston speculation. Looks like - for now - we've got Marwin and Greene entrenched at SS.

Brett Wallace getting more reps at 3B?

In Christina Kahrl's excellent piece on the Astros moving to the AL, we find out a number of things regarding the Astros' plans, such as:

*Even with Matt Dominguez at 3B, Brett Wallace is going to see some time there.
*Chris Carter will get some LF experience.
*Nate Freiman really needs to hit to get a chance of staying with the Astros.
*There's going to be a lot of movement between Houston and OKC, especially regarding the pitching staff.

First Meat Wagon of the year!

For those of you new to Astros County, we refer to an injury report as the Meat Wagon. And the Meat Wagon was called out for the first time of the 2013 season this morning during a rainy workout in Kissimmee when reliever Hector Ambriz rolled his ankle. Catcher Max Stassi was held out of practice for the second straight day, but his oblique injury is apparently not all that serious.

The K-Stros?

One thing the Astros recent acquisitions have had in common is a tremendous ability to strike out. Depending on who wins the positions battles this spring, there is a legitimate chance that the Astros could field a team with 7 of the 9 starters who had a strike out rate greater than 20% last year (Castro, Wallace, Greene, Carter, Maxwell, Ankiel, Pena). There is a strong chance that the everyday starting lineup could have 4 players with a strikeout rate greater than 30%.(Carter, Maxwell, Ankiel, Pena).

We could be looking at a historic strikeout team. Only 12 teams in history have struck out greater than 1300 times. The all time record was set by the Diamondbacks in 2010 with 1529. No other team has exceeded 1400. The American League record was set by the Athletics last year with 1387. Using Baseball Prospectus's depth chart, combined with 2012 strikeout rates, the Astros project to strikeout 1556 times. That is a very rough projection, but I think its fair to say that the Astros will at least join the 1300 strikeout club, and potentially threaten the AL and possibly the ML record.

But what does that mean? The list of high strikeout teams includes some truly abysmal offenses, including the 2012 Astros, who were dead last in the majors in runs scored. However, it includes a number of league average or better offenses as well. I don't think you can say that if the Astros increase their strikeouts from a year ago, they will necessarily decline offensively. Carter might strikeout at a higher rate than anyone and still be the best offensive player on the roster. However, its worth paying attention to as the spring develops, to see whether an effort is made to minimize the effects of these high strikeout additions in the final roster construction.

Survivor: Kissimmee - Day 2

And here is your continually updated news from Spring Training Day 2, also known as "Survivor: Kissimmee."

12:11pm: Brian McTaggart checks in with bullpen updates, quotes from Brocail. Also notice what is hopefully a typo in "Plantar Fascistic." Feet are fascists.

11:24am: Ankiel takes Porter to RF in batting practice. Porter calls it foul.

11:22am: Porter says the mound celebration was improvised, but he wants the team shaking hands more often.

11:17am: Alex White threw well today.

10:58am: When workout ended, players got in a line and shook hands, post-game style. Strange.

10:32am: All players have reported to camp except for Chris Carter, Carlos Perez, and Jose Martinez. Both Perez and Martinez are currently having visa issues. There is no excuse for Chris Carter.

10:18am: Astros engage in "fake, joyous" mound celebration following successful cover drill.

9:15am: Porter: "Everything is new. Let's go and compete." And Clemens will be in Kissimmee on Sunday. 

8:39am: Porter and Luhnow addressed the team prior to the first official workout.

8:15am: Jason Castro calls 2013 his "biggest year yet."

8:06am: Jose Veras isn't going to commit to being the closer - he'll let the Astros make that call.

7:54am: Rick Ankiel remembers he doesn't play for the Cardinals, shows up in Kissimmee. Was also talking to Reds and Giants.

7:46am: Fernando Martinez will not participate in the World Baseball Classic.

7:34am: Erik Bedard says he'll do everything he can to make the team, but if it doesn't work out, he'll "move on." He also says he was talking to the Blue Jays before signing with Houston.

6:00am: Bud Norris is not a morning person.

Astros fan trying to become cave dweller

It's safe to say that being an Astros fan lately has started to feel a bit like a support group. The last two years have been rough, both on the field and in the media, but we've always had each other, right? As evidenced by the #astrosmovies twitter phenomenon last week, when we all pull together we can still get noticed, so let's use that sense of community to help one of our own achieve his goal of joining the MLB Fan Cave this year.

Out of 52 finalists, Jay Ducote is the lone Astros fan. In two days, he'll find out if he's one of 30 contestants chosen to audition during Spring Training to be one of the few to actually join the Cave. So, if you want to see more awesome stuff like this
 
go vote for him now!

Spring Training Day 1 Updates

Rather than overload the site with each new development in Spring Training, we're going to take it by days, and update this post. So here is your Day 1 Spring Training running post:

2:07pm: We find out that Rick Ankiel has been working out at the Cardinals Spring Training facility, and "will join the Astros soon."

1:12pm: Jose Veras is penciled in as the closer. Committee is an option.

1:11pm: Luhnow doesn't like how thin the Astros are at Catcher

1:06pm: Luhnow says pitcher Chia-Jen Lo will not participate in the World Baseball Classic.

1:04pm: Luhnow sees Cosart projecting as a starter, not a reliever. Depending on Spring Training, could possibly earn a rotation spot in 2013.

12:58pm: Catcher Carlos Perez is still in Venezuela with a visa issue

10:20am: John Ely gets box of now-useless brick-red shoes.

9:42am: Bedard is here!

9:36am: Don't call him "Chuckie Fick." His name is now "C.J. Fick."

9:24am: Erik Bedard still hasn't shown up.

8:52am: Nate Freiman hit a homer off Bo Porter

8:08am: Brocail and Porter want starters to be able to handle eight innings.

8:07am: Bo Porter has not settled on an Opening Day starter.

8:02am: SP4 and SP5 will be a "competition"

7:55am: Lucas Harrell says Bud Norris has earned the right to be the Opening Day starter

Astros looking at eight players for 2013 1-1

Of course, the Astros aren't sharing that list, but JJO writes that the Astros have eight players on a shortlist for the 1-1 pick in the June 2013 draft. Interestingly, a high school pitcher is not on that list.

Everyone's going to have their own list, but here is John Sickels' list for the 2013 draft. There are some familiar names on there - some Biggio kid at #50 - with other local (to Houston) players.

Porter: "You can't be afraid to be different"

Speaking to the Des Moines Register, Bo Porter addressed what we could be seeing with the Astros in 2013, and used throwback former Iowa football coach Hayden Fry as an example:

"You can't be afraid to make changes. You can't be afraid to be different. People said (football) coach (Hayden) Fry was crazy with the tight end, when they couldn't get the tight end involved in the offense and get him down the line...Coach Fry said, 'We're going to stand him up.'...Now, how many times do you see the tight end come across the formation and stand up in the NFL?"

This better mean that we get to see a Rover at some point in 2013...

Jim Crane wants a Florida Spring Training renaissance

According to this article from TCPalm.com, Jim Crane is looking at the possibility of moving the Astros' Spring Training facilities from Kissimmee out to Arizona, but is also exploring the idea of sharing facilities with another team in Florida.

The latter idea - which is used in Arizona - has been previously mentioned. Crane toured the Mets' facility in Port St. Lucie (which is a mere ten miles from The National, the golf course Crane owns) last March. As early as December 2011, Crane mentioned moving from Kissimmee once their agreement ends with Osceola County Stadium in 2016.

Way back in August 2010 the Nationals expressed interest in moving from Viera to Kissimmee, where they could share facilities with the Astros.

Crane, on the two-team facility:
"We think the economics work for whomever wants to do it. One, you can keep the costs down. Two, you've got more activity there. And we've been told it also works really well because you can play that other team, too. It just makes everything better. That's what you're seeing in Kissimmee."

Filling The Catching Black Hole

Quick, name the Astros leader in fWAR at the catcher position over the last 10 years.

If you said Humberto Quintero, well done. Liar. Or you might have looked it up. Cheater. 

The Astros, even before they were pretty bad all across the field, have not been good at catcher. The last time an Astros catcher exceeded 2 WAR was 2000, with Mitch Meluskey. Remember him? And 3 WAR? That would be Craig Biggio in 1991. But the last 10 years have been especially abysmal. Between 2002 and 2012, Astros catchers have accumulated a total of 3.2 WAR. That's right. Every game, from every player who has donned the tools of ignorance for the Astros over the last 10 years, has amounted to just 3 wins over a replacement player. Fangraphs should just define replacement level as "Astros catchers." No other position on any other team comes close, except for first baseman on the Orioles, with 3.5. Lets all laugh at the Orioles for a while. That feels good. 

The bulk of the at bats over this time went to my mother's favorite player, Brad Ausmus. Earlier in his career, Ausmus was a useful player, combining stellar defense with an adequate bat. But between 2003 -2008, he was among the worst everyday hitters in the majors, and his defense was not really helping him anymore. But he still maintained his boyish good looks. Or so I've been told. After he left, I am pretty sure there were entire weeks where the Astros just forgot to start a catcher. Led to a lot of passed balls. When they did start a catcher, it was usually our good friend Humberto, but the list also included Pudge Rodriguez, J.R. Towles and several other names which Fangraphs most definitely did not make up. Whatever they tried, it didn't work. Unless they were trying to not add value to the team through the catcher's position. Then it worked like gangbusters.

Is there hope of the horizon? Why yes. And I think it might actually be on the current roster.

I get the sense that many have soured on Jason Castro. After missing all of 2011 with a knee injury, he started off slowly in 2012, However, his offensive numbers at the end of the year were decent, thanks in part to a respectable .263/.343/.443 slash line in the second half. Digging even deeper, there are even more good signs. Castro hit .286/.373/.458 against righties, but was awful against lefties, to the tune of .148/.175/.185. Now, you can expect Castro to have some degree of lefty/righty splits, but not to that extent. The lefty numbers, over 54 at bats, are the very definition of a small sample, and are suppressed by a .235 BABIP. I expect some improvement there, and some improvement overall.

I fully expect improvement in Castro next year. But you might have noticed that Luhnow has had a penchant for acquiring young catchers during his time as GM. Jayne over at What the Heck, Bobby, has been has been running a series on minor league depth at each position. Her post on catcher depth shows a glut of 20-22 years old catchers, many of which were brought into the system in the last year.  And he added another one just days ago in Max Stassi.

Maybe, just maybe, between Jason Castro or one of these young guns, the black hole at catcher will be filled soon.
. 

Building a World Series Contender

I was curious how the 2005 Astros, arguably the best team in the franchise's history, was assembled. Let's look together, I'll offer no commentary.

Starting lineup

C Brad Ausmus-Signed as Major League free agent. 11/19/03
1B Lance Berkman-Drafted by Houston. 1st round, 1997
2B Craig Biggio-Drafted by Houston. 1st round, 1987
SS Adam Everett-Traded from Boston as AA prospect for Carl Everett. 12/14/99
3B Morgan Ensberg-Drafted by Houston. 9th round, 1998
LF Chris Burke-Drafted by Houston. 1st round, 2001
CF Willy Taveras-Rule 5 pick from Cleveland. 12/15/03
RF Jason Lane-Drafted by Houston. 6th round, 1999

Bench

IF Mike Lamb-Traded from New York(AL) for Juan DeLeon. 3/25/04
IF Jose Vizcaino-Signed as Major League free agent. 11/20/00
OF Orlando Palmeiro-Signed as Major League free agent. 1/19/04
IF/OF Eric Bruntlett-Drafted by Houston. 9th round, 2000
C Raul Chavez-Signed as Minor League free agent. 1/4/00

Rotation

Roy Oswalt-Drafted by Houston. 23rd round, 1996
Andy Pettitte-Signed as Major League free agent. 12/16/03
Roger Clemens-Signed as Major League free agent. 1/19/04
Brandon Backe-Traded from Tampa Bay for Geoff Blum. 12/14/03
Wandy Rodriguez-Signed by Houston as amateur free agent. 12/12/99
Ezequiel Astacio-Traded by Philadelphia as High-A prospect for Billy Wagner

Bullpen

Brad Lidge-Drafted by Houston. 1st round, 1998
Chad Qualls-Drafted by Houston. 2nd round, 2000
Dan Wheeler-Traded from New York(NL) for Adam Seuss. 8/27/04
Russ Springer-Signed as Major League free agent. 6/29/04
Chad Harville-Traded from Oakland for Kirk Saarloos. 4/17/04
Mike Gallo-Drafted by Houston. 5th round, 1999

Appreciating Jose Altuve

Fans of bad teams tend to overrate their best players. That's just reality. I think we saw a little bit of that in the reaction to the Jed Lowrie deal, as a the 28 year old oft injured shortstop with a 97 career OPS+ was viewed by some as a potential cornerstone of the franchise. So it leaves me wondering why I get the sense that Jose Altuve might be underrated by the Houston fan base. Of course, I could be way off base, and I could be doing the same thing I just wrote about above. It'd be nice if we could always see our own biases.

Jose Altuve is probably best known for being incredibly short. HowManyAltuves.com has become somewhat of a national sensation, even appearing on a Topps baseball card. (BTW, my favorite "Altuve is short joke" appears in Grant Brisbee's post about Craig Biggio. About 2/3rds of the way down. I laughed for a while). But lets not lose sight of the fact that Altuve is also a good baseball player. And he is very very young.

Its fun to get excited about the prospects in the system. However, many of these prospects we are excited about are as old or older than Altuve. Jimmy Paredes, for example, is nearly  two years older than Altuve. Heck, even George Springer has Altuve by a year. What separates these players from Altuve, is, of course, that Altuve has already had success in the majors. Lets not forget about the horse in the barn while we pine after the horses in the pasture. Its a saying, I promise.

His success has been limited, for sure. He put up a 1.8 fWAR in 2012. His OPS+ was a mediocre 102. However, even that limited success at the age of 22 bodes well for Altuve's future. His number one comparable through age 22 on Baseball Reference is Rod Carew. Pete Rose and Lou Whitaker appear in his top 10 comps. The list of 2B who have posted a OPS+ over 100 at the age of 22 or younger since 1950 is not long, and includes Hall of Famers (Joe Morgan, Rod Carew, Roberto Alomar, Paul Molitor) Should be, Could be, Might be Hall of Famers (Pete Rose, Lou Whitaker,Willie Randolph, Robinson Cano) and others who had long, useful careers (Delino DeShields, Ron Hunt, Gregg Jeffries). Also Omar Infante. Now, some of those were much higher than 100, while Altuve just cleared the bar. But it still puts him in some great company.

Obviously, I'm not saying Altuve will become Rod Carew or Lou Whitaker. Almost definitely not Joe Morgan. I am not guaranteeing the Hall of Fame, or even multiple All Stars (you know, after he stops making it by default). But he is young, and he has already been successful. That puts him on a much stronger path to greatness than those still toiling in the minors at the same age. He could be great. He could be less than great, but still very good. He could be Omar Infante. Finding out what we have in our little Altuve over the next couple years will be a lot of fun.

Astros not shopping Bud Norris now

Good news for you fans who see Bud Norris as the ABSOLUTE LAST STRAW FOR ASTROS FANDOM UNTIL 2019, AT THE VERY EARLIEST.

Jeff Luhnow said yesterday:
“Right now, we’re not having any discussions with teams about Bud Norris. He’s projected to be one of our starters. We’ve had a good run with him and we’re going to continue to have a good run with him.”

We also see in this piece that Chris Carter will rotate around 1B/LF/DH to get a "full season's worth of at-bats."

Astros have interest in Reid Brignac

Jon Heyman mentioned on Twitter last night that the Astros and Twins were among the teams interested in former Rays SS/2B Reid Brignac.

Brignac, a 27-year old lefty could be a stopgap at short in the wake of the departure of Jed Lowrie (and if the Astros feel he could be an upgrade over Tyler Greene, Marwin Gonzalez, or Jake Elmore). But he might not be. Brignac played in a career-high 113 games in 2010, and has played in 108 games since. In his Major-League career, Brignac has hit .227/.268/.317. How does that stack up to the internal candidates?

Greene: .224/.292/.356
Marwin: .234/.280/.327 (came in 2012, his only ML experience).
Elmore: .191/.247/.250 (also in 2012, where he only played 30 games in Arizona).

Brignac is better known for his glove, however. But when he was optioned to Triple-A in 2011, Joe Maddon said:
"There's no question Reid is a Major League caliber shortstop. And I don't like the idea of him not playing defense for us. But moving down the road we have to get better on the offensive side of the ball."

Given that the Astros likely need more offensive help, we'll just have to see what numbers the front office comes up with. But he does fit the mold of recent acquisitions: Cheap, AL-familiar players. 

Grapefruit League Bus Tour won't include Kissimmee

Get used to this, Astros fans. Baseball Tonight posted its Spring Training Bus Tour schedule of both the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues.... and this won't include a stop in Kissimmee to the Astros (there are also nine other teams who won't get to be part of the Camp Report segment).

Once ESPN departs Minute Maid Park after the Dallas/Houston game on March 31, I bet we'll never see them again.

The Bellingham Herald has...a take

John McGrath of the Bellingham (WA) Herald has a fun little column up this morning.

Some nuggets from said column about the Astros:

*(The Astros) figure to be as compliant as litter runts."
*"(The roster) has fewer recognizable faces than an art-house movie with subtitles."
*"But in 2013, they’re looking like a cross between a punching bag and a tomato can. A punching can? A tomato bag? Something like that."
*If the Mariners don't go 12-7 against the Astros, there "will be some 'splainin to do." 15 out of 19 is "doable."
*"It’d be inaccurate to label Houston as a glorified Triple-A team, because whatever adjective describes the 2013 Astros, “glorified” ain’t in the mix. But it’d be just as inaccurate to label Houston as a big-league team, because the Astros will be fortunate to win 50 games."

That's a whole bulletin board worth of material, right there. 

Read more here: http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2013/02/06/2867729/good-news-for-mariners-here-come.html#storylink=cpy"

Read more here: http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2013/02/06/2867729/good-news-for-mariners-here-come.html#storylink=cpy""

Read more here: http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2013/02/06/2867729/good-news-for-mariners-here-come.html#storylink=cpy

The Parable of the Bar Chicks

Let's say you're a guy who's decided you're ready for a new relationship. You've dated girls in the past, and even managed to propose to one, but she turned you down before you barely had a chance to show her the ring. You had a couple rebound relationships where you tried to find the same magic, but it just wasn't the same. Now it's been a few years since you've even dated, and you're ready to get back out there again, so you head to the corner bar to try and find a girl.

You get there and two girls grab your attention.

One is the focus of everyone's attention. She's got her hair all done up, she's wearing her best mini-dress, she's doing shots with anyone she can find, and she's out on the dance floor reminding you how long it's been since you've seen a woman move like that. If you manage to impress her more than the other guys in this place, you can take her home tonight! But when you get her home, you'll notice that her hair is fried from years of over coloring and processing. That mini-dress is covering up her two push-up bras and her multi-layered Spanx. She does shots because it's the only way she can keep functioning. And the reason she danced so well was because she dances with any guy that impresses her enough. But, by golly, she sure does get you excited because, again, it's been so long since you've been in a relationship and she could be a lot of fun. Let's say she's a 7 for you, but that's as good as she'll ever be and in a couple years you'll be tired of putting up with her crap.

The other girl is sitting quietly at the bar. She's apparently the designated driver for her friends and looks like a librarian, with her hair up, glasses, and a cute little Hello Kitty handbag that her niece got her one Christmas. She's not looking for a guy to impress her enough to take her home. No, it's going to take a while to get to know her before she really opens up to you. But she's a true natural beauty, and when you talk to her you find out that she's a former college gymnast, is trained in Swedish massage, and has read all the classics. Looking at her tonight, you'll give her a 5, but if you're patient enough to let her open up to you she could be an 8 or 9.

Now, you might think, why not go ahead and take the 7 home, but get the 5's number and give her a call later? Now, some guys are able to get away with that, but it's rare and usually ends very badly. The 5 doesn't handle neglect very well and if you don't handle her right she'll never be that 8 or 9 she could be. And the 7 doesn't like having to look over her shoulder to see if someone's trying to take her place.

At the end of all this, you're looking for someone for the long haul. Which one is most likely to get you the ring?

Bud Norris "available"

Ken Rosenthal, whom, despite our earlier blasting is still worth a read, has a post up which says the Astros have made Bud Norris "available," and he is "drawing interest." (And presumably not just on that $3m contract.)

Rosenthal's source said the Padres, Orioles, and Cardinals all had interest in Norris at the Winter Meetings.

At least immediately, the Cardinals seem like a good fit. They just lost Chris Carpenter for what may be all of eternity, and aren't looking as though they'll resign Kyle Lohse. With Norris' contract already set, he would be a low-cost option. Add to that his near-legendary history against St. Louis (4-3, 3.54 ERA/1.28 WHIP at Busch Stadium) and he's clearly a known quantity.

The Orioles signed Joel Pineiro and Mark Hendrickson to minor-league deals, and the Padres acquired Tim Stauffer and Freddy Garcia at the end of January.

We'll be keeping tabs on this as it develops.

Astros move from KTRH to KBME

The Astros have announced that their games will be broadcast on KBME (Sports Talk 790) for 2013, even if we don't know exactly who will be announcing them.

Chronicle Deputy Sports Editor Reid Laymance notes that KTRH was a 50,000-watt station, and KBME is a 5,000-watt station. How does that affect you? Well, here's KBME's nighttime coverage map:

And here is KTRH's coverage map:

Keith Law Top 100

A day after Keith Law ranked the Astros as the number 4 farm system, we see a reason why. He ranked 5 Astros prospects in his Top 100, (insider) and 3 in the top 50. Here they are.

#24 Carlos Correa

#32 Jon Singleton

#43 George Springer

#83 Delino DeShields, Jr. 

#86 Jarred Cosart

From last year, Singleton and Springer rose about 15 spots, Cosart fell 10 and DeShields and Correa (obviously) were added. 

Law still sees Correa switching to 3rd eventually, but believes the bat will be good enough to stick there. He sees Singleton as .380-.400 OBP guy with 25 HR potential. His note on Springer is interesting. He says that Springer needs to make an adjustment when behind in the count, and if he does he can be an All-Star. If he doesn't, Law is not sure he will hit enough to be a regular. He likes the progress DeShields has made, both offensively and at 2B. This should help with the perceived snub from Mayo. (Although, really, being ranked 102 is not much of a snub).  Regarding Cosart, he thinks he still has a shot at starting, but "he'd be one of the best closer prospects around" if he doesn't. Cosart has fallen in the past three rankings.

Law also posted his "Ten Prospects Who Just Missed." Grossman was 5th on the list. I don't necessarily think that means Grossman is #105, but its pretty close. Law acknowledges he is higher on Grossman than most, seeing his on base skills as making up for his lack of power.

Law's rankings, or Baseball America's, or MLB's, or any other prospect ranking, shouldn't change how you view the state of the farm system or the Astros in general. They disagree and prospect ratings are not an exact science. However, the fact that nearly all of these prospect gurus are praising the work Luhnow and crew have done in the draft and in these trades tells us something. For the first time in a while, there are potential impact players in the minors. More than that, there is depth. Some of these prospects, especially those outside of the top 50, will fail. But there are others that can be ready to take their place. We can start to see some hope that there will be help for the big league club soon. These prospects rankings are just a reflection of that hope.   

Let the piling on commence

Yesterday the Astros traded a shortstop who has never played more than 97 games in a season, and has a career 6.1 WAR. In his career, the shortstop has missed time due to:

Wrist surgery (2009)
Sprained shoulder (2010)
Nerve damage in shoulder (2010)
Mononucleosis (2011)
Sprained right ankle (2012)
Peroneal nerve damage (2012)


In addition to this 28-year old shortstop who, in five seasons, has played in a total of 353 games, the Astros traded a 28-year old reliever who was 2-10 in 2012 with a 5.37 ERA/1.45 WHIP, and a 4.22 FIP who walked 4.35 batters per nine innings, and had a 7.31 ERA on the road. From June to August 2012, this reliever - who can throw it hard, but not accurately - had a 6.94 ERA and blew four saves.

In return for a 28-year old injury prone shortstop, and a 28-year old shaky reliever, the Astros received:
25-year old RHP Brad Peacock, the A's #4 prospect by John Sickels, and Baseball America's #2 A's prospect.
26-year old 1B/DH Chris Carter, their #9 prospect, who hit 16 homers in 260 PAs for the A's in 2012.
21-year old catcher Max Stassi, who is coming off of 2011 shoulder surgery, but signed with the A's for a 1st Round bonus.

But, given the reaction, you would think that the Astros just traded Jeff Bagwell to the Red Sox for Larry Andersen.

Ken Rosenthal spilled his turnip blood yet again last night, wringing his hands over the Astros' payroll. Rosenthal:
And as the Astros continue their teardown, it's certainly fair to ask how low can they go, how many games can they lose before they become an embarrassment to Major League Baseball.

(As an aside, last night's column looks an awful lot like Rosenthal's November column on the Astros' payroll - right down to the rhetorical question about surviving the AL West.)

Yahoo's Jeff Passan - who by all accounts is a very stand-up guy - took to Twitter last night, doing a pretty good Darren Rovell impression about the Astros payroll (minus the Twitter Polls and random instances of ALL CAPS). Even Buster Olney got in on it, blabbering about combined executive salaries totaling more than the Astros' payroll (or something like that). He also pointed out that Bud Norris, who is Chief Rainmaker now, will make as much in 2013 as Zack Greinke will in three weeks.

What would The Media say if the Astros had signed Josh Hamilton? Or Zack Greinke? "What are they DOING? Why won't they rebuild?" Oh, but that's just what Rosenthal has been pushing for going on four years now.

Rosenthal, who might very well wear a bow-tie on television this season to benefit the Astros, is now making a pretty severe about-face in regards to the Astros and their rebuilding plans. On June 4, 2012, Rosenthal thought the Astros should explore trading Jose Altuve.

Or how about this Rosenthal nugget, from June 2011, on trading Hunter Pence: They would save money. They would increase their inventory of young talent. They would kick-start a rebuilding process that is long overdue.

How about May 2010, when Rosenthal said the Astros were creatively bankrupt for not dealing Berkman and Oswalt, and asked "How many games must the Astros be behind for owner Drayton McLane to concede?"

Or September 2009, when Rosenthal said: "Frankly, it doesn't matter who the next manager is until the Astros realize they need to tear down and build back up again."

Or another September 2009 column, when Rosenthal wrote: "The Astros' next manager must navigate a tricky balance — the team is starting to infuse youth but also includes a number of declining veterans. McLane refuses to permit a complete overhaul, limiting his franchise's upside."

June 2009: "Trading players such as right-hander Roy Oswalt, shortstop Miguel Tejada and closer Jose Valverde could bring the team desperately needed young talent. Yet, McLane has passed on such opportunities numerous times before."

May 2009: Much as owner Drayton McLane hates to concede, he needs to understand that A) his team is going nowhere and B) his farm system ranks last in the majors, according to Baseball America...Trading closer Jose Valverde, shortstop Miguel Tejada and catcher Ivan Rodriguez would be a start. But Oswalt — even a declining Oswalt — could bring the most significant return.

So for almost four years, Rosenthal has been hammering the Astros about rebuilding. And when they finally do rebuild, he hammers them for being "an embarrassment."

I mentioned one of the above quotes to Rosenthal on Twitter, and he responded with:
There is a difference between what I suggested and completely gutting the team. You can thread the needle, too.

GOOD GOD I FEEL LIKE I'M TAKING CRAZY PILLS. No, you can't thread the needle. The Astros tried to thread the needle from 2006-2010 and look where it got them. One season where they almost made the playoffs, and a cumulative record 27 games under .500. Not bad enough to get a Top-Five draft pick. Not good enough to keep Phil Garner, Cecil Cooper, Brad Mills, Tim Purpura, or Ed Wade.

Let's take three teams, shall we? Let's pick three teams and decide which is the embarrassment to baseball:

Team A: Being investigated by the SEC for fraud thanks to its' horrific stadium deal, and roster malpractice. Spent $107m on 2012 payroll, only to finish 24 games under .500, last in their division.
Team B: Can't decide if they actually want to rebuild, and as a result, have a beautiful ballpark to go along with 20 straight seasons under .500.
Team C: Slashed payroll

This is rhetorical, but Team A is obviously the Marlins; Team B is the Pirates; and Team C is, of course, the Astros.

The Astros are looking for a Baseball Operations Analyst. Click the link, and look at the preferred requirements: MBA, experience in economic modeling, investment banking.

I do not regularly look at baseball jobs. I'm happy in my own job (even if I'm going to have to work an extra two hours today to make up for this rant.) But I'm guessing "Baseball Operations" and "Investment Banking" backgrounds do not typically collide.

This has become a mantra about the Astros, but for what will likely not be the last time: This front office does not care what anybody else thinks. They would prefer it if their front office did not think like anybody else.

This is going to be a rough season for the Astros. There are so many Unknowns that the only Knowns are that:

1) Attendance will be down.
2) Losses will abound.
3) 2013 will see a $20m investment in the farm system and another #1 pick.
4) The rebuilding will continue.

Luhnow, quoted by Rosenthal:
“I know it’s frustrating for fans that want immediate results at the big-league level. But this is the best chance we have to accomplish our result as soon as possible. We have to be consistent about that message.”

I'll take a few horrific seasons to return to the days when the Astros were a force in baseball. I'll accept it if it means that the National Media doesn't mail in a column about "OH THEY'RE GONNA BE BAD WHAT ARE THEY GONNA DO?" every six weeks. I will not stand by 81 wins to be The Goal, or twenty seasons of half-assing a rebuild.

Would you?

Perspective

In 2011, the story on Jed Lowrie was that he showed flashes of potential, but was inconsistent and was often injured.

The Astros traded a good relief pitcher for Jed Lowrie and a pitching prospect.

In 2012, Jed Lowrie showed flashes of potential, but was inconsistent and got injured.

The Astros traded Jed Lowrie plus a mediocre relief pitcher for a 1B/DH with power, a pitching prospect and a young catching prospect.

If the Astros "didn't get enough" for Jed Lowrie this time, that first trade was nothing short of highway robbery. Maybe it was.  

A Quick Comparison: Jed Lowrie v.Chris Carter

After hearing about the trade that was made yesterday I wanted to take a look at some offensive numbers from both Lowrie and Carter and get a better idea of what Houston is getting with the addition of Carter and the subtraction of Lowrie.

I used the stats from 2012 because last year was the highest number of plate appearances that both players have had with their respective former clubs. I established a hit rate, walk rate, home run rate, and k rate for each player and figured an offensive output for a full season of playing every day with a minimum of 3 ab's per game.

Keep in mind that neither player has played a full season in the major leagues.

If Chris Carter homers at the pace he did last season, every 13.67 ab, he could out homer Jed Lowrie (hr/21.25 ab's) by 15 homers a season.

If Carter's K rate holds steady (K/2.62 ab) the Astros would be adding potentially 100+ strike outs. Almost exactly twice the amount of Lowrie. (K/5.23 ab).

Chris Carter had an OBP .019 points higher than Lowrie last season and walked every 6.66 abs, compared to Lowrie, who walked every 9 ab's. This equals roughly 20 more walks a season by Carter.

From this fairly raw data we can get a ballpark idea of the production Houston is getting with Carter compared to Lowrie.

Houston' fans can expect more power from Carter than Lowrie and a few more walks. However, with that Houston is getting a player who strikes out at a rate twice as often as Jed Lowrie.

Mega Trade in the Works

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that a five player trade is in the works with Oakland, with Jed Lowrie as the centerpiece. McTaggart notes Astros will get 1B Chris Carter, RHP Brad Peacock and C Max Stassi from the A's.  Fernando Rodriguez will join Lowrie in Oakland.

Carter is a 1B/DH with power. He appeared in 68 games for Oakland last year, and hit .239/.350/.514 with 16 home runs. His OPS+ of 137 would have been tops on the Astros by a country mile. Seems likely the Astros like the idea of Carter as long term DH, with Singleton at 1st. The 1B/DH spot is getting pretty crowded, with Pena, Wallace, Freiman and now Carter. Somethings got to give there.This makes it that much harder for Freiman to stick with the club.

Stassi is a former top prospect who has lost a lot of time, and luster, due to injuries. However, he is still only 21 and has some power, hitting 15 home runs in just 84 games last year. He appears to be known as a good defensive catcher. John Sickels rated him as Oakland's #12 prospect.

Peacock was a part of Oakland's Gio Gonzalez deal last year. Had a pretty miserable 2012, it seems, with a 6.01. His FIP was better at 4.26. He was still ranked as the A's #4 pitching prospect going into the 2013 season by Baseball America, #6 by John Sickels. Projects as a mid rotation starter, best case scenario. Could conceivably make an impact this year.

Luhnow has said he would have to be "blown away" to trade Lowrie. That is a pretty nice haul for an injury prone shortstop and a mediocre reliever. Luhnow has effectively turned Mark Melancon into Kyle Weiland, Brad Peacock, Max Stassi and Chris Carter. I like the way he does business. Need to get to used to Marwin Gonzalez manning shortstop for a while, though.

Breaking down the rankings

Look, I get it. Prospect rankings are iffy. There are too many external factors, too many variables. Maybe your top prospect is going to lose out on 240 plate appearances because he got caught smoking pot. Each talent evaluator goes by what they see, and of course have their own system for ranking. Throw in the possibility that you don't even like the talent evaluator in the first place (see: Law, Keith), and you're going to have a very loose set of rules for something that hardcore fans take very seriously. As KevinBassStache reminds us, Jim Callis of Baseball America put the Astros system at #10, John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall at #11. Keith Law had them in the Top 5.

But at the very least, the rankings can provide an overall sense of the system's health. By Keith Law's rankings, the Astros went from dead last in 2009, to 28th, to 27th in 2011 and 2012, and now he has them at #4.

How does this compare to the Astros' new competition? It puts the Astros as the top-ranked farm system in the AL West (again, going solely by Law's rankings). The Mariners (#8) and Rangers (#9) are in the Top 10. Meanwhile, the A's (#22) and Angels (#30) apparently have pretty terrible systems.

Of the Top 15 farm systems in baseball, eight of them are American League teams. The AL East and AL West have three teams in the top 15, and the AL Central has two.

I don't know enough about other teams' systems to know if the talent which is being so highly regarded is in the higher reaches of the respective system, or lower. Regardless, going from 30th in 2009 to 4th in 2012 is a good sign, and provides a little respite in this, our winter of franchise discontent.

Keith Law Ranks The Astros Farm 4th Best in the League

Another sign of the improved farm system came today, as Keith Law ranked the Astros 4th in the majors, (subscription required) behind only St. Louis, Minnesota and Tampa Bay. In Law's 2012 rankings, he had the Astros 27th. Law credited the strong 2012 draft, noting the Astros got his number 2 overall and 4 of his top 60 in the class, for the quick rise. He also noted the improved performance of DeShields and Foltynewicz in 2012.

Law was a harsh critic of the Ed Wade regime, but has been very complementary of Luhnow since he took over. Luhnow also appears to also be a fan, as the Astros interviewed Law for several positions last year before he ultimately opted to stay in his role at ESPN. Good to see he is impressed with what the Astros are doing without him.

Law's top 100 will be debuted later this week. I think we can expect to see several Astros prospects on that list. He rated Singleton, Springer and Cosart in the top 100 last year.

Astros Interested in Daisuke Matsuzaka

MLB Daily Dish is reporting that the Houston Astros and New York Mets are both showing interest in Daisuke Matsuzaka. According to the article Dice K isn't sure if he will pitch in the majors this year or return to Japan, indicating he would prefer Japan over a minor league assignment. Both clubs are reported to be looking to sign Matsuzaka to a minor league deal with an invite to major league spring training camp.

UPDATE: Brian Smith says the Astros aren't involved in any "active discussions" regarding Dice-K.

The Blue Jays are to blame for Wojciechowski's numbers

When the Astros traded away Brandon Lyon, J.A. Happ, to Toronto for - among others - Asher Wojciechowski, we were excited, right? A 1st Round pick in 2010 by the Blue Jays, Wojciechowski just turned 24 in December, and at 6'4" 235lbs, is a big guy.

But when we - and likely you - checked Baseball-Reference, it was a little surprising. He had a good 2012 before coming to the Astros' organization, but there was that glaring 4.70 ERA (and his 4.03 FIP wasn't all that impressive for a 22-year old in high-A.

But thanks to this handy profile from the Charleston Post and Courier, we get some clues as to what happened:

Wojciechowski survived an early attempt by the Blue Jays to tinker with his arm slot and the grip on his slider, leading to an 11-9 mark and 4.70 ERA in 2011, his first full season in the minors.

Wojciechowski:
“That just didn’t work for me. But it also taught me what I need to do to get better, and what I need to stick to and not change.”

Citadel baseball coach Fred Jordan thinks he profiles as an SP3:
“I feel very confident that if he throws the ball the way he did at the end of last season, this year could be his call up. To me, he is a big league team’s No. 3 starter, and I think that’s where he’ll wind up if he stays healthy.”

It'll be interesting to see which level a lot of the recently-acquired pitchers begin the season. Corpus is a likely destination since he's only seen 43.2IP above High-A, but his 2.27 ERA (2.95 FIP) in those 43.2IP could mean a promotion, and not just to OKC. 

DeShields just outside Top 100

Two days ago we summarized the Astros on Jonathan Mayo's Top 100 Prospect List and noted that Delino DeShields, who was ranked #77 last year, fell completely off the list.

How did that happen? Well, we'll discuss that later today or tomorrow, but it's worth noting that Mayo posted his 101st-110th prospect list today (saying there was "no time" to go into each of the players on the list).

DeShields made this particular list, at #102.

Mayo had some words about the passionate reaction to DeShields' fall:
You thought people were upset that Ben Affleck didn’t get a Best Director nod for “Argo”? You should talk to Astros fans about Delino DeShields Jr. Sheesh.

Update: It seems as though the lists we linked to in the original post were not pre-season rankings, they were that season's end-of-season rankings. Check out WTHB's post on the subject...

Jeff Bagwell and the Insurance Fiasco of 2006

You can blame all this asinine talk about the Yankees trying to void A-Rod's contract due to continued link to PEDs for this journey back in time. You can also blame Ken Rosenthal's "Hey everyone A-Rod should just commit fraud!" column.

Go ahead, and read it. Rosenthal said that all A-Rod has to do is to:
A-Rod certainly will attempt to go through his rehabilitation, but he may be physically unable to perform. A doctor surely could make such a diagnosis quite plausible, given the weakened condition of Rodriguez’s two hips... A legal fight could ensue, with the insurance companies contending that either A) Rodriguez could still play or B) that his use of PEDs contributed to his physical deterioration. But good luck trying to win either case.

Oh "a doctor surely could make..."? No.

Let's think back to 2005. All of this you already know. The Astros went to the World Series for the first time, getting swept by the White Sox. Jeff Bagwell managed 123 plate appearances in 39 games. Sure, he had been productive in the years prior, but his OPS had declined in every year from 1999 to his last season in 2005. Check it out:

1999: 1.045
2000: 1.039
2001: .966
2002: .919
2003: .897
2004: .842
2005: .738

Of course, we'd think about murdering somebody to have a player "only" post an .842 OPS for the Astros in 2013. But Bagwell was breaking down right before our eyes. 2005 was the final straw. He hit .250/.358/.380 - all of those categories representing the worst of his 15-year career. He played in 24 games to start the season, and then returned in September in mainly a pinch-hitting role, and wasn't particularly good at any point.

Then the post-season came. I'm sure you remember. It was painful just to watch Bagwell get in the batter's box. He played in two games in the NLDS against Atlanta and one game in the NLCS against St. Louis - and totaled 3 PAs. He did get two starts in Games 1&2 of the World Series, and went 1x6 with a strikeout and two HBPs. He got two hit-less pinch-hit appearances in Games 3&4, finishing the post-season with a .490 OPS.

Jeff Bagwell would not pick up a bat in 2006, yet he made at least $17m (or $19,369,019 according to Baseball-Reference). The Astros did everything they could to not pay it.


January 13, 2006: Bagwell is examined by Dr. James Andrews, in Birmingham.

McLane's "childhood friend," Wayne Fisher, of Fisher, Boyd, Brown, Boudreaux and Huguenard (in March 2006):
"One of the things that happened was he was thoroughly examined at Dr. James Andrews' facility. He went through in this laboratory computerized analysis of videotapes that were taken showing how much he could move his shoulder, what the arc was, how fast he threw a ball and how he was throwing — how he would push the ball, as opposed to the normal rotation of the shoulder...He was throwing the ball at 35 mph at what distance he could throw. On Jan. 12, we know total disability began, because Dr. James Andrews, a world-renowned physician, told him. That was the first time any physician had ever said that to Jeff. If Connecticut General Insurance Co. can tell us what person in that insurance company knows more about whether Jeff Bagwell was totally disabled on Jan. 12 than Dr. James Andrews, I'll be very interested in cross-examining him."

January 24:  Despite the Astros saying he's hurt, Bagwell plans to attend Spring Training. Agent Barry Axelrod:
"He believes he's going to be ready for the start of the season. That's what we're counting on."

Bagwell is taking the Astros' stance personally: 
"To me more than anything else, it's just amazing how bad they don't want me to play. They just want to collect their money. It's an awkward situation. It probably will never be fixed between me and the Astros."

January 27: Based on Andrews' and Astros team physician David Lintner's findings, the Astros file an insurance claim to recoup $15.6m of his $17m salary (91.8%).

January 31: The Astros' insurance policy expires.

Ty Buthod, a partner at Baker Botts - the law firm hired by Connecticut General:

"The policy terminated on Jan. 31, 2006. The Astros took the position that Mr. Bagwell had become totally disabled sometime between the end of the 2005 season and Jan. 31, 2006. Throughout the process, Mr. Bagwell and the Astros were cooperative, gracious and professional. Connecticut General wishes the club and Mr. Bagwell the best."

February 2: Purpura is getting anxious:
"It's Jeff's position that he's going to report, and there's little if anything a team can do to keep a player from reporting. It's a tough situation all around. It's tough and complex. You don't collect on the claim until he's actually missed time, so he would have to miss time throughout the season for that to actually go through. The big issue right now is the interpretation of whether we lose our rights after spring training starts. I don't know of any club that's had to deal with this kind of situation in this manner, so it's very murky."

February 24: Bagwell wants to give 2006 a shot.
"This is a difficult thing. I understand the business side of baseball. Trust me, I want them [the Astros] to collect as much as they can. But I just want the chance to see if I can play..."I still should have the right to see if I can play."

March 11: Bagwell plays in his first Spring Training game of the season, the first time he has taken the field since May 2005:
"The major focus of this black cloud that's sitting over this locker is that throwing arm. If it starts hurting bad enough where it's affecting my swing, we're going to have another talk."

March 13: Connecticut General Life Insurance Company denies the Astros claim that Bagwell is disabled.

"On March 13, 2006, Connecticut General Life Insurance Co. notified the Houston Astros that it had denied a total disability claim submitted by the Astros relating to Jeff Bagwell," said attorney Ty Buthod, a partner at the Houston law firm of Baker Botts, which is representing Connecticut General. "The company determined that there had been no adverse change in Mr. Bagwell's condition or ability to play baseball between the end of last season, when he was an active member of the roster, and Jan. 31, 2006, the date the policy expired. The company carefully reviewed the claim as submitted by the Astros and determined that the claim did not support a finding of total disability."

March 18: Bagwell plays in back-to-back games at 1B. He makes a throw, but underhanded. Garner:
“He hasn’t made a quick, hard throw and we want to see that. It will happen when it happens. Obviously, we’d like to see it before opening day.”

March 25: Bagwell is placed on the DL. 

March 26: Bagwell acknowledges his career may be over.

"I may never play again. It's been 15 years with the Astros. I have to do what's best for me, what's best for the Astros and best for baseball...I came down to spring training to see if I could still make it as a first baseman with the Astros. There were times in the offseason where I felt like I could do this. But with the condition of my shoulder, I'm not going to be able to start the season with the Astros."

March 28: McLane vows to pursue legal recourse against Connecticut General.

Fisher:
"We have not filed (a lawsuit) yet," said Fisher, the former president of the Texas State Bar Association, Texas Trial Lawyers Association and International Academy of Trial Lawyers. "We will ask them to reconsider their decision based on the information Mr. Bagwell has provided. If they continue denying the claim, we will file litigation against Connecticut General. We're going to give them several weeks to reconsider their position." 

April 18: The Astros file suit against Connecticut General Life Insurance Company. Fisher files a 20-page brief with the lawsuit:
"To acquire this disability coverage, the Astros paid $2,409,343 in premiums to CIGNA, The terms of the Policy are relatively straightforward. The Policy provides a schedule of benefits payable to the Astros in the event (a) Mr. Bagwell becomes totally disabled and (b) the terms of and conditions of the Policy are met...In section 2 on page 6 of the Policy, the benefits scheduled for the 2006 regular season that CIGNA, by contract, agreed to pay are $85,748 for each regular season day that Mr. Bagwell misses due to a total disability. Plaintiff has timely presented a claim for these benefits to Defendant. Defendant has denied the claim. Hence, the lawsuit."


December 16: The Astros settle on an undisclosed amount with Connecticut General. Baker Botts' Ty Buthod and McLane's attorney Wayne Fisher released a joint statement that said:
"The Houston Astros and Connecticut General Life Insurance Company have reached an amicable resolution of the lawsuit brought by the club relating to the total disability policy on Jeff Bagwell. The details of the resolution are confidential."

That same day, Bagwell retires:
"Physically, I can not do it anymore. I wish I could. I wish I could continue to play and try to win a World Series in Houston. But I'm just not physically able to do that anymore. ... I feel very blessed to have met all of you, to be part of the Houston Astros for 15, 16 years."

What's the point of all of this? Jeff Bagwell was examined by team doctors AND Dr. James Andrews, was found to be completely disabled, didn't make a single appearance in 2006, and it still took eleven months to come to an undisclosed settlement with the insurance company. Good luck with that claim, Yankees.

Topps gives HMA a shout

Here's a cool note from the County Clerk side project How Many Altuves. Topps gives HMA a shout-out on their 2013 Jose Altuve card:

Expect George Springer in 2014

Hey thank God CSN Houston's website isn't blocked in the Houston area, amirite? Here's a post from John Kelly about George Springer, the Astros' first pick in the 2011 draft. 

As Kelly mentions, Springer hit well in 2012, his first real season in the system (as he only got 33 PAs in 2011). For Lancaster in 2012, Springer posted a .955 OPS in 106 games, and a less-than-stellar .630 OPS after his 22-game stint in Corpus. 

But dadgum, those strikeouts. He struck out 156 times in 581 PAs in 2012 - 26.9% of his PAs. Twenty-five of those strikeouts came in the 81 PAs in Corpus - 30.9%. 

Luhnow knows this, too, since he presumably can read Baseball-Reference just as easily as I can. And he has, you know, seen him play, and gets reports and stuff from people who saw him play that very night. He said on Saturday:

"We know what type of player (Springer) is...he's a speed, power, strikeout guy. Great work ethic, great athleticism. I think he knows the issue on the strikeouts."

So that's why Luhnow tabs him more for 2014 than 2013. And keep in mind, the guy only has 614 professional PAs. 

Astros get the Hardball Times' seal of approval

It's easy to get bogged down in the rebuilding of our fair franchise. Aren't you excited about Rick Ankiel? No? Carlos Pena? Meh? Erik Bedard? Seriously?

Then read this piece, from the Hardball Times, that shows a broader perspective:

The problem with many teams when they try to rebuild is that they don't do it all the way. For a major league organization, a rebuilding process, should that prove to be the right decision, is not something that can be done halfway. The organization must be all-in. This is what the Astros have done. 

Did you wish the Astros had not traded Wandy? Reference this:

The influx of talent that has entered the Astros farm system - both through trades and through better drafting - has given them one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. Not necessarily one of the best, especially in terms of major league-ready impact talent, but one of the deepest. 

There are notes on various players acquired recently, so be sure to read this. There's never the promise of a...rainb...uh good thing at the end of all of this. But at least there's someone else to tell you not to panic too much.

Greeneville Astros update unis

The Houston Astros aren't the only ones updating their look for 2013 - the Appy League Greeneville Astros are following suit...

Nicely done, Gastros. Nicely done.

Astros put four on Top 100 list

Tonight MLB.com unveiled its Top 100 Prospect List for 2013. The Astros had four players on said list:

#27: Jon Singleton

#30: Carlos Correa

#57: George Springer

#89: Jarred Cosart

Interestingly enough, if we look back to the 2012 MLB.com Top 100 Prospect List, the Astros had 

#25: Jon Singleton

#34: Carlos Correa

#48: George Springer

#76: Jarred Cosart

#77: Delino DeShields, Jr. 

Comparing the two, Correa and Springer advanced their rankings, while Singleton and Cosart dropped, and DeShields dropped off the list entirely. 

In 2011, MLB.com only listed 50 top prospects, and the Astros didn't place anybody on the list. Only Jon Singleton was ranked at all, and he was #32. Matt Dominguez, acquired in the Carlos Lee trade (which I still have a hard time believing ACTUALLY HAPPENED), was #35. Both were, of course, in the Phillies' and Marlins' systems at the time.

So...yay!

Comparing the 2012 Astros' Position Players to the League Average

After meeting Bill Brown, Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace, and J.R. Richard on Friday, I was intoxicated by the small taste of that which I have been craving since the end of last season. Baseball. It was my first experience meeting major league personnel in any capacity, (other than running in to Larry Dierker at Larry's Big Bamboo), and it left an impression on me to say the least.

Bill Brown asked my name and I couldn't help but grin from ear to ear like a 10 year old. It brought back the nostalgia of walking into the Astrodome when I was a kid, memories of orange folding chairs with huge cushions, and up close views of Kevin Bass and Jose Cruz at the plate seen through binoculars. I was young and simply enjoyed being there; a fan of the spectacle not yet involved in the love affair to come. It reminded me of an innocence that I will never have again. But part of that innocence lives on every season in positivity of possibility. It had me so ready for the season to begin that it was hard for me to look back at last year, a year that was the lowest of lows in the Astros' franchise relative to the major league club. But I did look back, and with an eye to the average player.

Recently I came across the numbers of the league average slash line of batting average/on base percentage/and slugging for every defensive position aside from pitcher from the 2012 season. Most people hear the word average and think not very good, but in the baseball world average is actually pretty good. These numbers are a compilation of at bats from anyone who played the position and swung the bat. Some of the numbers I have put together are slightly skewed by the fact I could no locate a position per at bat break down. So I had to lump in some players total at bats for one position, even though they contributed at multiple spots. However, the biggest chunks of AB's for each position were accounted for accurately, so that the numbers should only be slightly skewed.

C
League: .248/.318/.400
Houston:  .234/.313/.386
The catching platoon of Snyder and Castro were fairly close to league average last season. However, Snyder hit a lowly .176 compared to a .257 average from Jason Castro and a .269 average from limited ab's from Carlos Corporan. So if Castro can have more plate appearances this year and Corporan can provide as a serviceable back up, Houston should have a better showing at the catching position in 2013.

1B
League: .262/.336/.442
Houston: .266/.306/.428
Although I was not able to identify every AB at every position, I was able to only include the Houston at bats from players who were traded during the season. Carlos Lee, B. Wallace, and Scott Moore made up the majority of the AB's I used for the 1B position. Moore out slugged and got on base at a higher clip than Wallace and Lee but Lee hit for a better average than the Wallace and Moore. Wallace and Moore had similar averages and each out slugged Caballo. Overall probably a similar showing at the 1B position in 2013, depending on how much 1B Pena plays and if and when Singleton is called up. Probably higher slugging, similar OBP, and lower average.

2B
League: .257/.318/.383
Houston: .239/.286/.309
The majority of AB's came from Jose Altuve at the 2 bagger spot last year, but not all as Altuve did miss some time due to injury last year. These numbers are below average and well below average in the slugging department. If Altuve can stay healthy, these numbers probably look better.

3B
League: .266/.327/.427
Houston: .268/.329/.418
Surprisingly solid numbers at the 3b position last year. Between Chris Johnson's .276/.329/.428 and Matt Dominguez's .273/.310/.477 lines, the numbers look pretty good. But when you include the lines of Steve Pearce and Brandon Laird the average and slugging dip. Though Dominguez will likely not slug at a rate of .477 the 3rd base position could have another nice showing in 2013.

SS
League: .257/.318/.378
Houston .241/.296/.408
The only category where Houston' short stops performed above league average was in the slugging department, and a healthy Jed Lowrie, yes healthy, means the possibility of a similar result from the SS position in 2013.

LF
League: .261/.326./431
Houston: .227/.284/.356

CF
League: .265/.330/.418
Houston: .220/.303/.360

RF
League: .262/.327/.434
Houston: .220/.305/.406

The 3 outfield positions were where Houston really suffered last year, in all categories. It is pretty brutal to look at. The main silver lining I can see is the possibility of a higher slugging percentage provided by a full season of JMax and Fernando Martinez, who slugged 427 and 466 respectively. Take away Brian Bogusevics slash line of 203/310/229 and things are already looking better. A repeat of productivity from the outfield in 2013 would be tragic.

Here's to pitchers and catchers reporting in 2 weeks and to positivity of possibility.

Jed Lowrie feels "better than ever"

We're just under three weeks from the Astros heading to Kissimmee for the start of another Spring Training, and Jed Lowrie is feeling aces.

What could the Astros have looked like this offseason?

There's been some increasing chatter amongst some of the fanbase that Luhnow shouldn't have sat on his hands so much this offseason. Even those that buy into the rebuild say that we should have been more active in signing the guys that were willing to take one year deals this offseason. So, let's see what might have been.

I was trying to wait out the final ZIPS projections before making this post, but given the response we've received from this post I thought I'd go ahead and throw this out there now. For any player that doesn't have a projection already available, I took their average WAR from the past three seasons. Not very scientific, but good enough for these exercises.

Right now the Astros are sitting on a roughly $21.5M payroll (not including amounts owed for players no longer on the team) and, according to ZIPS, that buys us a team WAR of about 18. A zero WAR team should be expected to win about 45.5 games. Let's go with 45. So the roster, as constructed today, should expect to go 63-99.

Next, let's see who signed one year deals that would offer a projected upgrade over the current roster. For these purposes let's assume that Houston would have had to offer ten percent more than what the player actually signed for in order to woo them away from their true destination.

Pitching makes the biggest difference here, so let's look at that first. The biggest signing would have been Dan Haren is the biggest splash here, good for 4.1 WAR. We'll give him $14.3M to steal him from Washington and replace Phil Humber's .8 WAR and $800k. Next we'll take Scott Baker's 3 WAR away from the Cubs for $6M and let Jordan Lyles ($500K and .6 WAR) spend the season in AAA. Our next signing will be Koji Uehara at $4.7M for 1.2 WAR, replacing Hector Ambriz at $500K and (-) .9 WAR. Rounding out the bullpen, let's sign Ryan Madson for $3.9 M with 1.4 WAR and take Josh Fields off the roster ($500K and (-).2 WAR).

Now that we've spent $28.9M (minus $2.3M on the guys we bumped out, for a net $26.6M increase) on upgrading the pitching staff by 10.3 WAR, let's turn to the position players.

Congrats fans, Houston has resigned Lance Berkman at 1B! Though it cost us $12.1M, the massive increase in ticket sales more than makes up for it, right? His 2.4 WAR means we move Wallace to the bench and don't have room on the roster anymore for Nate Freiman's $500K and (-) .3 WAR. Next let's sign a whole new outfield!! We'll take Juan Pierre in left at $1.8M and 1.3 WAR, Andres Torres in center at $2.2M and 2 WAR (removing his outlier 2010 season), and Nate Schierholtz in right at $2.5M and 1 WAR. This takes the Martinii off the roster (combined $1M and 1.1 WAR) and means we don't sign Ankiel at $500K with .7 WAR.

There we just spent another net $16.5M for an increase of 5.3 WAR.

Here's the new depth chart:

1B: Berkman
2B: Altuve
SS: Lowrie
3B: Dominguez
LF: Pierre
CF: Torres
RF: Schierholtz
DH: Pena

BE: Corporan
BE: Wallace
BE: Greene
BE: Maxwell

SP: Haren
SP: Baker
SP: Norris
SP: Bedard
SP: Harrell

RP: Ely
RP: Cedeno
RP: Rodriguez
RP: Veras
RP: Uehara
RP: Wright
CL: Madson

We added $43.1M to payroll, for a total of $64.6M and increased our projected WAR by 15.6 to 33.6. Now we're talking! The new team should go 79-83!!

Is it worth it?

The Astros are not the Marlins

With all due respect to Peter Gammons, who has been honored by the Hall of Fame for excellence in baseball journalism (which, incidentally, does not make him a "Hall of Famer"), he is slightly full of crap.

Gammons tweeted early this morning that:
It's awfully hard for Bud Selig to come down on the Marlins for slashing payroll when the Astros are at $21M.

There's your typical national journalist, who simply looks at numbers, and not the reason behind them. The Marlins are a totally different animal than the Astros. How so?

1. "Slashing payroll?" Come on.

The Astros have not slashed payroll. They cleared out dead weight. 

In 2010, the Astros' payroll was $93.2m. In 2011 it was $71.1m. In 2012, they closed the season at $37.7m. That's a decline of 59.5%, before you get into the possibilities of 2013's payroll (which looks to be in the $25-30m range). But you look at the salaries of whom they were ridding themselves: Brett Myers' $11m contract. Wandy Rodriguez's $34m contract. Brandon Lyon's $5.5m. No more Carlos Lee at $18.5m per year. Just stopping there represents an impressive amount of money. Yet when each were traded, the response was either "It's about time," or "Luhnow is a genius."

Does Gammons want the Astros to replace all that payroll, especially after his September 2012 column in which he wrote:
What Crane, Postolos and Luhnow inherited was a team that was in the World Series seven years ago but was drained of talent because former owner Drayton McLane did not invest in the Draft.

You simply cannot retroactively blast the Astros for doing what everyone agreed should have been done at least three years earlier.

The Marlins have a special case. They dumped $181m in contracts in one day. That's not slashing payroll, that's 1929 on Wall Street. Their Opening day payroll in 2012 was $107.7m. Baseball-Reference estimates their payroll in 2013 to be $45m - a 58.8% decline in three baseball months.

Nobody wrote about how the Astros' rebuilding plan was "a baseball tragedy" as Jeff Passan did regarding the Marlins. Nobody wrote about the Astros disgracing baseball, as Time Magazine did. Nobody called the Astros' actions "inexcusable," as the Sporting News did.


2. The Astros didn't commit fraud.

Late in 2011 the SEC opened an investigation into the Marlins' ballpark deal.

CBS Sports wrote at the time:
The city and county are paying for nearly 80 percent of the $634 million stadium. The subpoenas focus, the report says, on the Marlins trying to determine the team's ability to pay for the financing of the stadium. Last year, the Marlins' financial records were leaked and they showed that the team had received the most money in Major League Baseball from its revenue-sharing system, while not investing it back into the team. The team said it was financial strapped and needed help from the city and county to build the stadium, which it ultimately received.

And then they went out and signed those $181m in contracts, wooing Albert Pujols, promising to put a competitive team on the field, a promise which didn't make it to the All-Star Break. Passan wrote in the above-linked article that, by the time the balloon payments are due on the ballpark, it will cost Miami-Dade taxpayers $2.4 billion.

Of owner Jeffrey Loria and president David Samson, Passan wrote:
And these were two men who for years lied about their finances, lied about their intentions, lied all to get Miami to build them a $634 million ballpark that was supposed to end this wretched cycle of turning a major league franchise into a swap meet.

For Peter Gammons to mention the Marlins' long-term plans with the Astros' long-term plans is, at best, lazy. At worst, it's ignorant.

Why I am Excited About the Bedard Signing, And Why You Should Be Too

Okay, "excited" is too strong a word. And so is "should." I don't want to tell you what to think. Let's try that again.

Why I am More Than Ambivalent About the Bedard Signing. You Can Feel How You Want.

As you have read, the Astros signed Erik Bedard to a minor league contract, with an invitation to Spring Training. This has been met mostly with ambivalence. Understandably so, considering he put up a 5.01 ERA last year and was released by the Pirates. If he was any good, he wouldn't be available to sign to a minor league contract, right? But I am slightly more than ambivalent.

From 2008-2011, Bedard was good. 3.41 ERA, and a ERA+ of 121 in the American League. In 2012, Bedard was not very good. 5.01 ERA and an ERA+ of 74 in the National League. What changed? Did Bedard fall of a cliff between his age 32 and 33 seasons?

Well, Bedard's 2012 peripherals were right in line with his numbers from 2008-2011. He was still striking out more than 8 batters per 9. His walk rate jumped from 3.7 to 4, but that doesn't seem to be enough to cause his numbers to dip that much. His line drive percentage also rose, which accounts for some of the difference. But I think the primary culprit is the spike in his Batting Average on Balls in Play, or BABIP. After keeping hitters to a .280 batting average from 2008 to 2011, that number spiked to .314. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and expected Fielding Independent Pitching  (xFIP) are both tools which attempt to take into account the fluctuations of BABIP, among other things. Both of these peg Bedard's 2012 nearly a run lower, with a 4.07 FIP and a 4.05 xFIP. Still not great, but significantly better. There is a very real chance, with some regression in Bedard's BABIP, that he can be an effective starting pitcher at the back of the Astros rotation. Woo Hoo.

Now, Erik Bedard is not a workhorse. In fact, Bedard and workhorse have never appeared in a sentence together, excepting sentences which read "Bedard is not a workhorse." He has not thrown more than 130 innings since 2007, and has never exceeded 200. That's a big problem if you traded Adam Jones, Chris Tillman and George Sherrill for him to be your ace. Much less of a problem if you gave up nothing for him. If the Astros can get 100-130 innings of near 4.00 ERA from Bedard in 2013, he will be more than worth what they gave up for him, which is, again, nothing. If he stays healthy and effective enough to flip him for a prospect, that's a bonus.

Erik Bedard, worth giving up nothing for, with potential for more. If that doesn't scream "More than Ambivalent," I don't know what does.

Astros sign Erik Bedard

I have known about the signing of Erik Bedard for approximately 12 hours, but I cannot think of an opinion about it.

Bedard will be 34 in March. He throws the ball with his left hand. He is Canadian. He was good. In 2006, he went 15-11 with a 3.76 ERA/1.35 WHIP for Baltimore, with 7.8 K/9. Then in 2007, he was better, going 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA/1.09 WHIP, his K/9 jumping to an AL-leading 10.9, and his 7.0 H/9 also led the American League. Bedard finished 5th in the Cy Young voting.

Then in February 2008, Bedard was traded to Seattle for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, and two other players. That trade did not work out for the Mariners. In parts of three injury-plagued seasons with Seattle he made just 46 starts and was traded in a big, complicated, multi-player three team trade to Boston, where he made eight starts, going 1-2 with a 4.03 ERA/1.55 WHIP.

Then he signed with Pittsburgh for 2012, and made 24 ineffective starts, going 7-14 with a career-worst 5.01 ERA to go along with a 1.47 WHIP, and was released on August 28. He still managed a 1.3 WAR (according to FanGraphs).

So with the news that the Astros signed him to a minor-league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, it's the very definition of low-cost/high-reward. Any reward at all will be high. He'll compete for a spot in the rotation, and Jeff Luhnow says he has a good chance to make the rotation.

That's fine, I guess. It gives the younger guys more time in the minors, and would bring a guy who has spent eight years of his Major-League career in the American League a chance to help the team. I still have no opinions. Could be fine. Might not. But, and this isn't an indictment of Luhnow/Front Office, this is precisely the move that we would have hammered Ed Wade over.

Can Houston Win With a 23 Million Dollar Payroll?

The 2013 Astros' payroll is projected to be under 23 million dollars this season. Unless Houston decides to spend on the remaining free agents, they will have the lowest payroll in the AL and possibly MLB. It got me thinking about how teams have fared with a payroll so low. So using baseballreference.com I looked at payrolls from the last 13 seasons and took note of teams with payrolls under 40 million and their respective records.

In 2012 there were no teams with a payroll under 40 million.

From 2000 to 2011 their were a total of 35 teams who entered the season with payrolls under 40 mil. Of these 35 teams 9 had winning seasons. The 3 teams who featured payrolls under 40 mil the most were Tampa (6 times), Florida (6), and Pittsburgh (5).

Payrolls under 40 mil were more common early in the 2000's. Florida was the last team to have a payroll lower than what Houston's projects to be, and that was 21.8 mil in 2008. Florida also has bragging rights to the lowest payroll during this time span, 14.9 mil in 2006, with Tampa a close second in 2003 at 19.6 mil. Oakland in 2001 and Florida in 2000 had payrolls under 23 million. Houston will be the 6th team since 2000 to feature a payroll under 23 million.

The best records I found from these teams were much better than I anticipated. I expected the teams who had winning seasons to hover around the .500 mark, which about half did, but there were 5 90+ win seasons of the bunch.

2010 San Diego 91-71
2002 Oakland 103-59
2001 Oakland 102-60
2000 Oakland 91-70
2000 Chicago White Sox 95-67

Still, of these 90+ win teams only Oakland had a payroll under 30 mil, at 22.8 mil, very close to where Houstons' payroll will probably end up. The other 4 teams' payroll was closer to the 40 million dollar mark.

The average record of these 35 teams sits around 74-87.

I took it a little further and isolated the teams with payrolls under 25 mil. This left 8 teams with a average record of 79-82. Of these 8 teams only 3 have had winning seasons, with Oakland (2001) being the only team to win 90+ games.

So based strictly on payroll, is it possible for Houston to compete with a 23 million dollar payroll? Yes. Is it likely? No. Winning with a payroll under 40 mil is more the exception than the rule.