Tuesday Morning Hot Links

The Astros beat the Mariners 8-5 thanks to Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve. Houston is 3-1.

Josh James threw 3IP, 3H/3ER, 5K:5BB, HBP, WP. 39 of his 75 pitches were thrown for strikes. Brandon Bielak came in and threw 3.1IP, 4H/2R (1ER), 4K:0BB in his MLB debut in relief, getting his first MLB win. Dusty, on Bielak:
It was a great debut for him. He saved our tail. He came in today and threw a lot of strikes, competed, attacked, executed.

*Alex Bregman hit his 100th career home run in his 521st career game, one pitch after Jose Altuve hit his 300th career double. He's the 18th Astro to hit 100 home runs.

Altuve's 300th double came in his 1247th game. Craig Biggio - who is 5th all-time in MLB in doubles - hit his 300th double in his 1432nd game.

*For just the 3rd time in his career, George Springer was 0x5 with 3K:0BB. He's 1x16 to start the season.

*Michael Brantley was 2x3 with a double and is hitting .467/.529/.800 so far.

*Dustin Garneau hit his first career triple. Astros catchers hit .429/.467/.521 in four games against the Mariners.

*McTaggart has some takeaways after the first series of the season, including the state of the pitching staff in which we find that Ryan Pressly and Chris Devenski are both dealing with elbow soreness. That's, uh, that's not ideal. The only healthy relievers with more than a year of service time are Roberto Osuna and Joe Biagini. Dusty thinks the quick ramp-up to the season is to blame. Austin Pruitt has been shut down.

*Taylor Jones, who made his MLB debut on Sunday, was optioned to Satellite Camp on Monday. With Verlander on the IL, the Astros brought up Brandon Bielak and Nivaldo Rodriguez. The 40 Man Roster is now full. More arms to work with, though eight of them are rookies. Framber will start today's game against the Dodgers and Wednesday's start - which was to be Verlander's - just might be a bullpen game.

*Now that there's been a day of separation between the Verlander News and some time to let it sink in...Dusty, on Verlander:
He's in a good frame of mind...I've always called him a medical marvel. This guy works and he believes that he's close to Superman and he really is and I'm just hoping he's Superman this time, too, but without hurting himself.

SI's Emma Baccellieri: Where do the Astros go without Justin Verlander? FanGraphs: Verlander's impact on the already-thin rotation.

*George Springer had his first Zoom press conference on Monday, and was asked about his upcoming free agency. He didn't really say anything, which is pretty much exactly what you would expect him to say, given that he's trying to secure what is likely his only/last big contract. Also, Springer has made over $31m plus whatever the pro-rated pay is for 2020, so it's not like he's trying to set himself up...this is more like setting your 3rd and 4th generations up. Still, George Springer should get paid all the money. I just don't know that the Astros will do it.

So let's look at the years that Astros will hit free agency:

After 2020: George Springer, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, Brad Peacock
After 2021: Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Roberto Osuna, Joe Smith, Martin Maldonado, Chris Devenski

*David Barron: The Dodgers are way more worried about COVID than 2017 as they come to Houston.

*Astros.com: Inside the UH facility hosting the Astros' taxi squad.

*FanGraphs' David Laurilia had a conversation with Astros prospect Tyler Ivey.

*Todd Kalas will return to the booth tonight after testing positive for COVID.

*11 Miami Marlins and two coaches tested positive for COVID. Their game against the Phillies last night was postponed. The Phillies' entire visiting clubhouse staff are under quarantine. Infectious disease specialists can't believe the Marlins and Phillies played on Sunday. The Marlins won't play today, either, as they wait on a new batch of tests to either go to Baltimore or cancel that game, as well. "This is way more than a wake-up call" - where MLB goes from here. MLB's worst nightmare is here (and, surprise! they could have planned for it).

Like other MLB owners, I was firm and sincere in my belief that Not Really Trying At All was the best option when it came to managing the challenges of playing baseball during an out-of-control pandemic. I still think it's our best and most principled course of action.

— David Roth (@david_j_roth) July 27, 2020

*Former Astros Great Mike Foltynewicz will be designated for assignment by the Braves.

*Last Chance U: Laney is now on Netflix.

*Defector, you say?

*A Musical Selection:

Monday Morning Hot Links

Just. I mean. So the thing is. If you really think about it. No, I got nothing. First things first, some streaks came to an end in Sunday's game: the 15-game winning streak over Seattle, as well as the 27-game streak of hitting a home run. Then Justin Verlander is apparently dead. First, the game:

*Zack Greinke lasted just 58 pitches, throwing 3.1IP and allowed 4H/3ER, 2K:2BB. It was his shortest outing since March 28, 2019, when he got 11 outs and allowed 7ER. That was also his first start of the season. The last time Greinke recorded fewer outs in a start was August 14, 2016 (1.2IP).

Make of it what you will, but Zack Greinke averaged 87.7 mph with his fastball today. He averaged 89.9 mph in 2019.

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) July 26, 2020

Greinke said:
Not too happy with anything. Command wasn't great, stuff wasn't great, endurance wasn't even good at all.

*The four runs allowed by the bullpen (one to Biagini, three to Devenski) were the first runs allowed by the Astros' bullpen this season. Blake Taylor, who was acquired from New York for Jake Marisnick: 1.1IP, 0H/0ER, 2K:0BB.

*Chris Devenski, 2016-2017: 189IP, 129H/50ER, 204K:46BB, 2.38 ERA / 0.93 WHIP.
Chris Devenski, since: 118.1IP, 115H/62ER, 127K:35BB, 4.72 ERA / 1.27 WHIP.

*Brandon Bailey, who was acquired from Oakland for Ramon Laureano, made his MLB debut. So did Taylor Jones, who GIDPd and then struck out on three pitches with the bases loaded.

*Bryan Abreu faced nine batters: two HBPs, two walks, 13 of 31 pitches for strikes.

*Jose Altuve drew two walks for the second game in a row, which only happened once in 2019 (April 25-26, 2019), once in 2018, once in 2017. He had five walks in 57 games in 2011.

*Josh Reddick tripled to lead off the 6th, and then the Astros couldn't get him another 90 feet. They were 3x13 w/RISP in Sunday's game. It's the first time as an Astro that Reddick got a triple and the Astros lost the game (they were previously 9-0 when Reddick tripled).

*Thanks to Our Dude Chris Peixoto we find that Martin Maldonado's six RBIs over the first three games are the most by an MLB catcher since Brian McCann did it in 2007. Maldonado has never had 2+ RsBI in three straight games before.

*Alright, on to it, I guess. Let's recap the events:
Friday: Justin Verlander threw 6IP, 3H/2ER, 7K:1BB. 73 pitches. He told the Astros his arm was tender.
Saturday: Verlander had an MRI.
Sunday: Chandler Rome reported that Verlander was shut down for the year with an elbow issue. Dusty said after Sunday's game that it's a forearm strain and Verlander will be shut down for two weeks and re-evaluated.

Dusty:
It's not a pleasant situation to think about Verlander or to think about how many young players we have in the bullpen and organization but we'll go back to the drawing board.

The report that I’m currently missing the rest of the season is not accurate. There is a forearm strain... I’m hopeful that with some rest it will heal and I’ll be able to return soon. Thank you for all the well wishes. 🙏🏻

— Justin Verlander (@JustinVerlander) July 26, 2020

"Currently missing the rest of the season." Losing Verlander long-term is obviously one of the worst-case scenarios coming into the 2020 season, an entire team outbreak of COVID aside. But let's hold off on doom-and-gloom on the baseball front for two more weeks, or just bottle it up and assume the worst privately, like an adult. We did this already with Lance McCullers (or pretty much every pitcher), where a forearm strain was a precursor to Tommy John surgery. Maybe this isn't it. But it probably is.

Jake Kaplan: What now for the rotation?

*In McTaggart's pre-game Notes we find that Blake Taylor and Enoli Paredes were the first Astros pitchers to make their MLB debut on Opening Day since Wesley Wright in 2008 and Josh James' backyard MLB-regulation mound.

*There are no updates on Austin Pruitt or Brad Peacock. RIP.

*Basically MLB's worst-case scenario is playing out with the Miami Marlins. Honestly, if you had to pick a team to be the Plague Rat Team, it would be Miami. It's bad. Jayson Stark and Ken Rosenthal: Why did the Marlins play on Sunday?

*Also with elbow soreness: Former Astros Great Ken Giles.

*Congratulations to the Houston Dash after winning their first NWSL Cup.

*A recipe for chewy chocolate almond cookies.

*The Tale of John and Ann Bender and Their Quest for Paradise.

*The Sly Psychology Behind Magicians' Card Tricks.

*A Musical Selection, warranting of the times:

Saturday Morning Hot Links

Six days until the first Grapefruit League game of the year. Forty days until Opening Day at East Weatherford.

*The Astros are looking at viable lefty relief options in what basically amounts to an open tryout for that spot, which Hinch admitted they might not even bring one along for the Great Adventure of 2018. Could be Tony Sipp, Buddy Boshers, Anthony Gose, and Reymin Guduan. Hinch:
I think, going into this camp, the hope is Tony Sipp returns to form and that he has the stuff that made him a high-leverage reliever a couple of seasons ago. He has the capabilities to do that. We want to take the best team we can.

At $6m for 2018, Tony Sipp will cost the exact same amount of money as Jose Altuve.

Later in that link, Carlos Correa talks about what the Astros can build:
We don't want to be just a team people are going to remember for one year. We want to be able to build a dynasty and be able to win two, three years in a row if we can do that. We have the team to do it. It's just on us to put in the work and do what we need to do to win again.

*McCann:
We're as strong as it gets top to bottom. A lot of these guys came up together and...it's a big reason for our success. Everyone's pulling in the same direction and everyone knows how special this group is and we want to make the most of it.

*The Astros could possibly carry three catchers, and that's good news for the out-of-options Max Stassi.

*Bovada is giving the Astros' O/U a 96.5, 12 games better than the Angels.

*Would Dallas Keuchel shave his beard?

*Riley Ferrell grew up an Astros fan and talks about getting invited to Camp.

*The new Bob Watson Educational Center will be a part of the Astros Youth Academy complex.

*Here's a cool report from the Miami Herald about Miami-Dade County suing the ever-classy Jeffrey Loria over the sale of the team to a group PR'd by De2ek Je2er.

Meanwhile Real G and Former Astros Great Dan Straily is happy that his whiny-ass teammates Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich are gone.

*The Rangers are reloading their rotation with the likes of Bartolo Colon and Edinson Volquez, who won't pitch in 2018.

*True Heroes Jon Heyman and Buster Olney got into it about who broke Eduardo Nunez's Red Sox deal first.

*

Goes through Houston. #houstonstrong https://t.co/dXbQRFljAr pic.twitter.com/LDJKA8OHcC

— Justin Verlander (@JustinVerlander) February 16, 2018

Saturday Morning Hot Links

*Random 2017 Astros fact:

Cameron Maybin only had 13 hits - including the postseason - for the Astros in 2017. Four of them were home runs.

*The Astros did not tender Mike Fiers a contract. Fiers, who was acquired in the Carlos Gomez trade, made 67 starts plus three appearances in relief for the Astros. Those 67 starts, by IP (Keep in mind I'm not counting the 8+ IP appearance in the 7+ IP appearances):
8+: 1 (the no-hitter against the Dodgers)
7+: 12
6+: 20
5+: 17
4+: 12
3+: 4
2+: 1

Fiers was a fine back-of-the-rotation guy and let's not forget that Fiers stepped up mid-2017 when Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, and McHugh were all on the DL. In ten starts between May 30-July 21 Fiers threw 61IP, 43H/16ER, 69K:21BB, a 2.36 ERA/1.05 WHIP. Despite that 10-game stretch of brilliance, Fiers ended 2017 with a career-worst 5.22 ERA (I'm not counting his eleven games with Milwaukee in 2013). Fiers was inconsistent, at best.

Ultimately, Fiers' final game was ugly: 3.2IP, 10H/8ER, 5K:1BB on September 13 at Anaheim. Luis Valbuena took him deep for a 2-run 1st inning home run, which Valbuena predictably bat-flipped. Next Valbuena plate appearance saw Fiers throw over Valbuena's head (Valbuena would get a double later in the AB), which resulted in a 5-game suspension that Fiers did not appeal. He didn't pitch for the Astros again. On a related note, remember that Brett Oberholtzer threw at A-Rod in June 2015, got ejected, and got sent to Fresno after the game. He made one more start for the Astros and then was traded to Philly for Ken Giles later in the offseason. This has sort of been a theme, albeit with some exceptions - Lance McCullers comes to mind - in which a pitcher who intentionally throws at/near a batter gets (wait for it...hold...HOOOOLLLD) fired.

Fiers with the Astros:
2015: 3.32 ERA / 4.39 FIP; 1.06 WHIP; 110 ERA+
2016: 4.48 ERA / 4.43 FIP; 1.36 WHIP; 88 ERA+
2017: 5.22 ERA / 5.43 FIP; 1.43 WHIP, 76 ERA+

Fiers was projected to make $5.7m in arbitration this season, $800,000 less than Jose Altuve. Fare thee well, Mike Fiers, you held it down when the Astros really needed it.

*40-Man Roster subtractions since the Astros WON THE WORLD SERIES:

Carlos Beltran ($16m)
Juan Centeno ($500K)
Tyler Clippard ($3m-ish)
Mike Fiers ($4m)
Luke Gregerson ($6.25m)
Cameron Maybin ($2m-ish)

So that's about $32m coming off the books for 2018.

*The Astros are planning a "full-court press" for Shohei Ohtani. Jim Crane:
We'd certainly be interested. Based on everything our guys have seen, he's got really good stuff and he could be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, and he's got a bat. We need a left-handed DH, so there you have it. 

Take a moment to breathe into a paper bag. Reports are that Ohtani is in Los Angeles and could begin interviewing teams next week. The deadline to sign him is December 22.

Jon Paul Morosi reports that Ohtani will be looking for opportunities to pitch and hit. Eno Sarris notes that keeping Ohtani healthy will be a key recruiting point and, even after the Rotation Wreck of 2017, the Astros rank 2nd overall in a composite DL study.

I swear, if Yuli Gurriel's actions in the World Series cost the Astros...

*MLB.com is celebrating "Statcast Star Gary Sanchez." This is how I celebrate Gary Sanchez, and will launch a GoFundMe later today to raise funds erecting a statue outside Minute Maid Park of his greatest Astros moment:

*Jon Heyman's "Inside Baseball" notes consist of hard-hitting insider information regarding Dallas Keuchel switching agents, and organization-wide disappointment after the Not Events of July 31.

*Former Astros Great Aaron Boone is the new manager of the Yankees.

*Former Astros Great Asher Wojciechowski signed a minor-league deal with Baltimore.

*YEAH JEETS: The Marlins fired a hospital-bound scout days after he had surgery for colon cancer and who is also awaiting a kidney transplant.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*The Astros beat the Marlins 3-0 yesterday behind Lance McCullers' tribute to Jose Fernandez, throwing six scoreless innings. The Astros are 29-12 and lead the AL West by eight games (and, lest any Ramgers fans come looking to troll: yes, we know it's May.)

*Hinch, on McCullers' start:
I know it meant a lot for him to pitch on this mound. So it was nice for him to be near his best and use his pitches and be effective. He just did a lot right and he did it with a lot of emotion today. It meant a lot to him. 

*McCullers' 1st two road starts: 9.1IP, 15H/10ER, 11K:4BB
McCullers' three road starts since: 19IP, 9H/0ER, 14K:4BB

*McCullers is the first Astros pitcher since Roger Clemens (2005) to throw three straight ER-less road outings.

*Jose Altuve hit two doubles and two triples yesterday against Miami - Jake Kaplan notes it's the first time that's happened in Astros history, and the first time in the Majors since Carl Crawford did it back in 2005. And Altuve never crossed home plate yesterday.

*Speaking of the Rangers, they have won eight straight games against straight trash teams (San Diego, Oakland, Philadelphia) but still, eight straight wins is eight straight wins. They're 8-2 in their last ten games, and have lost a game to the Astros in the standings, who are 9-1 in their last ten.

*Mike Lupica: The Astros are for real

*Richard Justice: Astros are loving life on top

*Jerome Solomon: Astros are providing some championship hope

*Jeff Luhnow still expects Frankie Tuesday to pitch for Houston this season though, what with 19 walks in 19IP, it could be in relief.
I don't know if it's going to be in the rotation or in relief, if it's going to be in September or if he'll be able to come up and fill a need before then. We'll have to wait and see...we're just going to have to be patient with him.

*Still, the need for a starting pitcher is more evident after Mike Fiers' rough start and any impending slumps/injuries. Ken Rosenthal reported Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole could be a possibility for the Astros as the Astros will likely make a push to strengthen their squad and the Pirates' window hurriedly closes. Not only Cole, but lefty reliever Tony Watson could be a potential trade target as the Astros search for a viable option other than Tony Sipp (who has admittedly pitched much better of late).

Wednesday Morning Hot Links

Well folks the Astros won again. They're 28-12 - 14-6 both at home and on the road - after beating the piss out of the Marlins last night, 12-2. If the Astros win today (11:10am in the series finale against Miami) they'll be 17 games over .500 for the first time since the end of the 2004 season.

*Matt Young notes that the Astros are the first AL team since the 2007 Boston Red Sox, and the 18th AL team in the last 50 years, to start 28-12.

*Keuchel was pulled after 5IP and 70 pitches thrown, with a 10-2 lead. Keuchel:
I don't like to pitch five innings, but if there's a big lead and I've got a chance to get a win, I'll take that. I'm on pace for a lot of innings, so today was a good chance to save a few bullets.

*Hinch:
I've been looking for a time to get him out of there. We've had him out there so deep into games. We had a comfortable lead, I had a couple of guys that were really ready to pitch.

*Jake Marisnick had his first 2HR game and Marlins Park becomes the stadium with his 2nd-highest career HR total, with three (one as a Marlin, two last night). His first career home run came on July 31, 2013 as a Marlin, against the Mets. Marisnick:
I hadn't been feeling great, so to go out there and slow things down, get a good pitch to hit, put a good swing on it, it felt good. 

*Lance McCullers will get the start today as the Astros look to get their first three-game sweep of the season. McCullers was good friends with late Marlins ace Jose Fernandez:
It was always our goal, always our dream to make it. So it's a little bit surreal being here and him not being here. I don't know what it'll be like when I pitch. But I have to do my job at the same time. 

*Charlie Morton is trying to figure out what's going wrong as he gets deep into games. Jake Kaplan notes that 14 of the 20 runs Morton has allowed have come against hitters seeing him for the 3rd time in the game. Morton:
It's like you go from one extreme to the other. It's frustrating. 

*James Hoyt has struck out 18 of the 32 batters he has faced this season. Hoyt:
Last year in the taste of big league action I had I still had more strikeouts than innings pitched (28K, 22IP), so there was a sign there. I just knew I could do better. 

*The Astros released Fresno's Keegan Yuhl and Corpus' Michael Freeman. Yuhl was the Astros' 35th Round pick in the 2014 draft, but had allowed 38H/34ER, with 13K:15BB in 19.2IP. Freeman is a little more surprising - he was the Astros' 7th Round pick in 2015 - and in 20IP had allowed 21H/7ER, with 14K:16BB for Corpus.

*The Astros are #1 in MLB.com's Power Rankings

*ESPN: Astros have a chance at the best double-play combo ever

*Men's Fitness: How Carlos Correa became baseball's fittest shortstop

*Ken Rosenthal, who shed many a tear and fretted oh-so-many times over the Astros' rebuilding, now says the Marlins need to do the same thing.

*Jeff Sullivan: It's kind of amazing the Rangers are where they are.

Thursday Morning Hot Links

*Dallas Keuchel became the first Astro to win the Cy Young award since Roger Clemens back in 2004 when he received 22 of 30 1st place votes - David Price received the other eight - from the BBWAA. Keuchel, Clemens, and Mike Scott are the only Astros pitchers to win the Cy Young.

*Clemens welcomed Keuchel to the Cy Young club

*Keuchel told his mother that he was going to win...a week before the season started.

*Collin McHugh received five votes and finished 8th.

*Here's a big something from Jeff Passan:
Three sources told Yahoo Sports that Freeman's name came up in conversations with the Houston Astros as part of a mega-trade that would've included more than five players. It went nowhere. 

...Man, it would be fun to know what those conversations were like.

*Holy crap, read about the Marlins clubhouse.

*With HOF voting time ongoing, we get to read extremely bad opinions.

Wednesday Trade Deadline rumors

It is July 29, so let's spend the whole day obsessing about grown men and where they're going.

10:18pm: Not Fausto will be DFA'd as Lowrie will rejoin the club tomorrow

9:41pm: The Astros put together a "strong package" for Hamels but he refused a trade so screw him.

9:41pm: Final deal because Ruben Amaro doesn't know what he's doing - and Cole Hamels is an asshole - Matt Harrison, Alec Asher, Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jake Thomspon for Hamels, Jake Diekman, and money.

9:31pm: Hamels, an asshole, and Jake Diekman, goes to Texas for four prospects - but not their two biggest bats. Which tells me Hamels wouldn't waive his no-trade clause to go to Houston.

8:59pm: CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury says Hamels-to-Arlington deal is being finalized

8:22pm: EVERYTHING IS INSANE

8:01pm: Mets got Carlos Gomez

7:40pm: And Ross just took a liner off the leg

7:26pm: The Astros sound like they're more interested in Tyson Ross than Andrew Cashner

*The Astros and Padres "are gaining steam" in a deal over pitching, according to Evan Drellich, with Cashner, Ross, and Kimbrel all in play.

-Break to play with daughter-

3:31pm: Bob Nightengale says the Astros "hate" to give up prized prospects for a rental, but understand that Price could get them to the World Series.

3:16pm: Still no Lowrie in the lineup

2:52pm: Bob Nightengale handicaps Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays as favorites for Price, Astros as long-shot.

2:50pm: Reminder of Hamels' approved trade list: Yankees, Rangers, Dodgers, Mets, Nationals, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Padres. Two AL teams, seven NL teams, three NL East teams.

2:46pm: The Tigers are now listening on all rental players, which includes Price, Cespedes, Avila, Soria, and Rajai Davis. Good work Phillies, you screwed yourselves over by holding on to Hamels too long. Again.

2:42pm: The Astros "should" be in on both Price and Cespedes (with pretty much every other team)

2:37pm: The Tigers are now willing to move David Price and Yoenis Cespedes

2:35pm: There is apparently a third team involved in that Dodgers/Marlins trade

1:56pm: If Hamels gets traded, Jayson Stark says, it won't be until tomorrow or Friday. Remember his next scheduled start was moved from Thursday to Friday.

1:49pm: Whoever the Rockies GM is says that it's "ridiculous" that they will trade Carlos Gonzalez

1:21pm: Jon Heyman says the Astros have "checked in" on Justin Upton

1:19pm: Olney expects the next 48 hours to be a "flurry" of trades with the Padres, because AJ Preller is a dummy and wants a mulligan on last offseason.

1:06pm: Evan Drellich says the Astros are still "in" the Hamels race, but the org thinks he'll go somewhere else.

All eyes on Cole Hamels as trade deadline approaches. pic.twitter.com/XyGaW7DkFN

— Ted Berg (@OGTedBerg) July 29, 2015

11:44am: CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury "strongly believes" that Hamels' next start will be in Arlington. For the Rangers, in case that wasn't clear.

11:06am: The Yankees, Dodgers, and Blue Jays are ready to have an "all-out bidding war of prospects" for the Tigers' David Price.

10:51am: Your annual reminder that the Marlins are a complete joke.

10:40am: And the Dodgers still want Price or Hamels.

10:35am: The Dodgers - one of the two most-mentioned destinations for Cole Hamels - have traded for Mat Latos, Michael Morse, and a pick.

10:31am: Crasnick tweets the Astros are still looking for a starter and outfield depth. They like Tyson Ross and Samardzija, but Samardzija might be staying put. (We linked to a report yesterday that the White Sox aren't sure if they're sellers).

10:22am: Jerry Crasnick tweets that he doesn't think it was ever likely for Hamels to come to Houston, refusing to waive his no-trade clause.

9:43am: Gammons clarifies that the org feels like Hamels "won't" go to Houston.

8:59am: This tweet makes more sense if there is supposed to be a "won't" in between "Hamels" and "go"

Astros owner Jim Crane has given the all-in for a big trade, but the feeling in the organization is that Cole Hamels go to Houston

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) July 29, 2015

Saturday Morning Hot Links!

*The Astros are raising ticket prices for season ticket holders for the first time since 2008, though the family deals will remain at the same price

*Mike Foltynewicz's parents reacted to his call-up.

*George Springer shagged flies before last night's win over Toronto.

*Members of the 1980 Astros appeared on a panel at SABR 44 in Houston yesterday.

*The Marlins ended up as "Losers" according to the Washington Post.

*2011 29th Round pick Wallace Gonzalez will be a tight end for the University of Utah this season.

Cosart is apparently a Marlin, Pt II.

Yesterday, I indicated somewhat prematurely that the 2014 edition was not an exciting trade deadline.  Then things went kind of crazy, and lots of deals went down in the last few hours.  The BoSox traded in their veteran goodness for an interesting mix of players, the Rays got surprisingly little for David Price, and a flurry of other moves involved both contenders and non-contenders, including a stunning Astros-Marlins trade.

As the Constable has already indicated, the most buzzer-beating trade deadline deal involved the Astros sending three players to the Marlins, who sent three players and a draft pick back in return.  As this trade was going down, I was on my way out of the door, so I only managed to scramble a quick post up before the details even got finalised.

The comments in that post were interesting.  AC readers (and commentators) are generally fairly sharp, I think, compared to what else is out there in the comments section.  (I believe AC readers are 37% more handsome, and smell 56% better than the average internet reader, too).  There was an interesting mix of comments, with some shock and horror to start with, then more objective looks and acknowledgements of the potential players coming back.  In general, most the comments were positive.

Now that I have had a few hours to digest the trade myself, here is my thoughts on the players going to Miami:

Austin Wates (and no disrespect in saying this) is probably a non-piece here.  When you are the AAA CF, and when the three CF-capable ML pieces all head to the DL at once due to an unfortunate series of circumstances, and you aren't called up, I think that says something about the organisation's plan for you.  Also, at 26, his time is now, and I think that if the Astros wanted to drop him in at the ML level and see what happens for a couple of months, they had all the opportunities they needed.  I hope he has a nice career, but the FO clearly weren't in his corner, so this trade may be the best thing that ever happens to him.  'Nuff said.

Jarred Cosart is a very interesting pitcher.  I would describe him as having couple of plus pitches - both fastballs - with enough of an off speed arsenal to get by.  His lack of strikeouts are concerning, but perhaps speak to the lack of velocity difference between his two best pitches.  The only other thing that I would find concerning is the fact that he always - and the radio guys mention this a lot - seems to be fiddling with his mechanics.  He seems to struggle with control (perhaps as a result of inconsistent mechanics, or inconsistent thoughts about mechanics), but 90% of the time his stuff is good enough that he can throw one of his ridiculous 95mph cutters down the heart of the plate and get away with it.  When he doesn't get away with it, he can be hit hard, as he was a couple of times earlier in the year.

So Cosart is plenty good - a legit ML piece somewhere in the rotation - which is phenomenal for a 38 round pick.  But I want to get away from that for a minute, and think about who else the Astros have in the system.  At AAA, the Astros have Nick Tropeano, Mike Foltynewicz and Asher Wojciechowski who have not yet seen ML action, and all need a look in the next 12-18 months or so.  That is without talking about Tommy Shirley, David Martinez and Rudy Owens, who probably don't have the stuff, but may warrant a look.  Alex White is on his way back from TJS.  And Jake Buchanan and Brad Peacock are with or have been with the ML team recently, and have pitched with some success at times in the bigs.  Peacock, in particular, could put it all back together as quickly as he lost it - and he has been quite good for stretches at times this season.

At AA, things start to get more interesting.  Mark Appel, Luis Cruz, Kyle Smith and Kyle Weiland seem to be the cream of the crop there.  Some of the guys at this level may be ready for a look at this time next year, but they will probably be as ready as they ever will be in 2.5 years.  At Lancaster, Josh Hader, Vincent Velasquez and a handful of others have impressive ceilings.  Hader may be ready in 12-18 months as well.  The Astros have a lot of pitchers they need to cycle through the rotation prior to 2016, which is when I would expect that they want to really have a rip at contenting.

So it isn't that Cosart isn't good, or useful, or uncoachable, or too familiar with Twitter.  It is more that he is replaceable.  One of the guys mentioned in the two paragraphs above will be at least as good as Cosart, and the chances are that 3-4 or them will be.  That said, I was very impressed with Cosart's season, and thought that he made significant gains over last year, despite the worsening in ERA (but not in FIP/SIERA and other advanced measures).  I sincerely wish him the best of luck, and I will always be interested in how his career progresses.

Kiké Hernandez's loss could sting a bit.  There is a lot of value in a super-utility guy with occasional power, who doesn't strike out a lot, who can take a walk, and who runs the bases fairly well.  Which is what we saw in Houston and OKC this year.  Plus, he seemed like a popular, high-energy guy, and there seemed to be a sense of magic in much of what he did (but not when trying to throw runners out at home).  I liked his timing at the plate - he often seemed to make hard contact even on foul balls - and without checking the numbers (small sample size alert if we were to check the numbers, too) didn't seem to swing and miss a lot.  He seemed able to hit breaking stuff, and appeared difficult to overpower.  In short, I like him a lot.

However, it has to be said that Hernandez is relatively unheralded - which means nothing in itself - but he has also has only one half-season of great baseball under his belt.  This could well be the best that he ever plays the game, or he could stay at this level and have a solid career.  He could also be waiver-bait in 2 years or so if he is playing above his talent-level at the moment.  Marlins Stadium is unlikely to be kind to him - it is unkind to anyone not named Stanton after all - and so his pull-power may not play there as well as the Juice Box, or that other stadium in Arlington (for example).

(Addit: I missed a couple of points that I wanted to make about Hernandez in this article.  Firstly, he is blocked in Houston, unless you play him at third, and I think that the Astros are committed to giving Dominguez another 12 months before doing that.  Secondly, there is a very real possibility that Hernandez is the best player changing teams in this trade.  There is also a possibility that he is the worst of the 4 main players changing hands too.  His volatility is fairly extreme at this point in his career, and he will get an opportunity to play every day at the keystone in Miami).

So here is my take on the players that the Astros are trading away.  Unlike the Constable, I don't think that the Astros have decided to put "success" (whatever that is) on hold for a year.  Hernandez might be great, but is also volatile, and this could be a good time to sell high.  Cosart is eminently replaceable, but perhaps not immediately.  Whomever starts in the rotation in Cosart's place in 2015 will most likely perform at a similar level.  Wates' departure from OKC may allow Andrew Aplin to be promoted, and he clearly wasn't getting a look anyhow.  This trade has the potential to hurt, but I think any modern baseball trade involving prospects does.  And this trade isn't the Hunter-Pence-to-the-Phillies kind of haul for the Marlins, but both Cosart and Hernandez could develop quickly, and it seems to me that the Marlins are gearing up for a serious run this and next year.

Tomorrow, I will have a lash at looking what is coming the Astros' way.

Future put on hold for one more year

Here's what the Astros did today:

Less than 45 seconds before the deadline, the Astros sent:

Jarred Cosart

Enrique Hernandez

Austin Wates

to the Marlins for:

Jake Marisnick

Colin Moran

Frances Martes

2015 Competitive Balance draft pick

How do you feel about that? I'm genuinely curious, because I'm not sure. Let's recap exactly what the Astros gave up:

Jarred Cosart: 38th Round pick in the 2008 draft by the Phillies. Acquired in the Hunter Pence trade. MLB.com's #89 prospect heading into the 2013 season. 30 starts, 176.1IP, 10-8, 3.57 ERA/1.42 WHIP (4.13 FIP), 108K:86BB (1.26 K:BB ratio). It's not as though that K:BB ratio is surprising, either. Cosart hasn't posted a K:BB ratio over 2.00 since 2010 against any competition. In the same regard, Cosart always had a knack of pitching out of trouble: With the exception of 2011, when he struggled in his first pass at Double-A, he hasn't had a full season with an ERA over 4.00. I know that ERA doesn't tell the whole story, but - to me - it shows #Grit and #BucklingDown. I like Jarred Cosart.

Enrique Hernandez: Drafted 2009, 6th Round, by the Astros. In 24 games for the Astros this season, he hit .284/.348/.420 with 11K:8BB in 89 PAs. In six minor-league seasons (he began his career at Age 17), he hit .274/.327/.401 but really took off in 2014. Having never posted an OPS over .740 in a season, he hit .337/.380/.508 in 67 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City this season before getting called up. And, man, he was a sweetheart. Not to get all Kirk Gibson on you, but that dude is/was a #grinder. I loved watching him play.

Austin Wates: 2010 3rd Round draft pick by the Astros. Recipient of the first Astros County Man Crush. Wates is in his Age 25 season, and would have to be put on the 40-Man roster this season, which likely would not have happened. As we have seen with a few other 2010 draft picks, the Astros traded him in order to get *something* in return. In five seasons, Wates has a career .303/.381/.415 slash line with 98 stolen bases in 121 attempts. That's a bit misleading, because since the beginning of 2013, Wates has successfully stolen 46 of his last 51 bases. But injuries have been a concern. He has played in 100+ games in a season just once - in 2011. But I really like Austin Wates. 

And so there it is. The Astros traded two players on the Major League roster - one who has been on a 25-man roster prior to June 2014 - and Austin Wates, whom the Astros feel is a good player, but not as high on the depth chart. 

What did the Astros get in return?

Jake Marisnick: Drafted by the Blue Jays as their 2009 3rd Round pick, Marisnick was acquired by the Marlins in their BS firesale in mid-2013. Prior to 2014, Marisnick was Baseball America's #79 prospect, and MLB.com's #65 prospect. Marisnick turned 23 last March, and is 6'4" 225lbs. Marisnick has spent most of this season with Triple-A New Orleans - his first stint at Triple-A - and in 377 PAs, has hit .277/.326/.434 with 64K:17BB and 24 stolen bases in 30 attempts. But his impending debut in Houston will not be his first ML action. In 2013 he and Christian Yelich were called up from Double-A and, in 40 games for the Marlins, hit .183/.231/.248. In 14 games in 2014, Marisnick hit .167/.216/.167. Yes, small sample sizes. Marisnick will likely play CF until Dexter Fowler returns from the DL and will play a role in the Astros OF in the future. Unless he doesn't, and gets traded next year.

Colin Moran: Moran was the 6th overall pick in the 2013 draft, and was in the mix - at least on the surface - for the Astros pick in 2013. Coming into this season, Moran was BA's #61 prospect, MLB.com's #51 prospect, and BP's #74 prospect. He's a 3B by trade, so Matt Dominguez has approximately two years to figure his crap out. Moran has spent 2014 at High-A Jupiter in the Florida State League, where he has hit .294/.342/.393 with 53K:28BB in 392 PAs, meaning that he can make contact. This season he has 21 doubles and five homers, and 80 singles. His uncle is B.J. Surhoff, though.

Francis Martes: Martes, a 6'0" 170lb RHP, will be 19 at the end of November. His first taste of pro ball came last season, when in 50.1IP in the Dominican Summer League, he allowed 51H/17ER, 33K:14BB. In the GCL this season, he has thrown 29IP, allowing just 24H/16ER, 31K:18BB. Walks are up, but so are strikeouts. Lottery ticket.

Competitive Balance pick: This is where it gets interesting, because for the second year in a row, the Astros receive an extra pick in the next year's draft. Last year, the Bud Norris trade resulted in L.J. Hoes, Josh Hader, and - ultimately - Derek Fisher. Now, did the Astros get the pick because it provides extra value to the trade, or do the Astros think there's a chance they could be forced to uphold the Nix deal, which would cost them not only the 1-2 pick (for Aiken) but the other 1st Round pick (wherever that may fall due to their overall standing)?

Recap: At best, the Astros get a CF prospect, a 3B prospect, a lottery ticket pitcher and three of the 1st 40 picks in return for a potentially good starter with projection, a super-utility player, and the recipient of my Man Crush. At worst, the Astros get those prospects and a supplemental pick. I mean, obviously the worst-case is that Cosart figures out his command issues, Hernandez turns into David Eckstein, and Austin Wates is Vince Coleman while Marisnick is Jordan Schafer, Moran is no one in particular, Martes doesn't do anything, and the Astros actually do lose their 1st two picks in 2015. 

But who's counting? Tune in tomorrow for a different version of The Future. 

From the Office of the County Clerk - G105: Astros v. Marlins

Jacob Turner (3-6, 6.03) vs Collin McHugh (4-8, 3.28)

Collin McHugh returned from the disabled list to make his first start for the Astros since July 6. For 5.2 innings, he pitched very well indeed. But those 5.2 innings came after the first 0.2 of the game, which was a rough welcome back for McHugh. Three runs in the first put Houston in a hole their struggling offense couldn't overcome, and so the Marlins complete their sweep of the Astros with a 4-2 final. The Astros await Oakland tomorrow at 42-63 on the season.

On the Mound:

*A single, a triple, a sac fly, and a home run greeted Collin McHugh in the 1st before he settled in. Only three singles, a walk, and a solo HR followed as he pitched into the 7th after that, so overall it was a welcome return to the Astros' starting staff. But it was still not good enough to avoid McHugh's sixth loss in his last six starts, disappointingly so with a 6.1 IP / 7 H / 4 R / 4 ER / 1 BB / 9 K line.

*Darin Downs faced two batters in the 7th, walking one and striking out the other.

*Then Jake Buchanan followed to finish the game, and turned in his best big league outing yet - 2.1 nearly flawless IP with 4 K, and only a two-out single in the 9th allowed.

At the Plate:

*Houston's offense may struggle, but Jose Altuve continues to soar, going 3x4 with a solo HR (his 4th) and a SB (his 42nd).

*Jonathan Singleton matched Altuve's three times on base, going 1x2 with his own solo HR (his 7th), 2 BB, and a K.

*Marwin Gonzalez (1x4), Matt Dominguez (1x4, K), and Marc Krauss (1x2) were the Astros' only other baserunners, but none of them were ultimately of consequence.

Turning Point:

Christian Yelich led off the game with a single against Collin McHugh. Jordany Valdespin tripled to put Miami up 1-0 immediately, then McHugh fanned Giancarlo Stanton for out #1. A sac fly by Casey McGehee made it 2-0 on out #2, but Garrett Jones followed with a solo HR to give Miami a 3-0 lead. Doctor McHugh was rock solid after that, but Houston's offense only managed two solo home runs all day, so that 3-0 hole decided the game very early.

Man of the Match:

Jose Altuve. We like Jose Altuve.

Goat of the Game:

Not gonna pick on McHugh, so All the Astro Bats besides Jose and Jon.

From the Office of the County Clerk - G 104: Astros versus Marlins

Tom Koehler (6-7, 3.85) versus Jarred Cosart (9-6, 4.23)

It seems that Jarred Cosart has a fairly miserable record in the early innings this year, but a single 7ER in one-third would skew anyone's record.  Well, tonight he had some difficulty with they whole "strike throwing" thing early on, but he settled down to gut it into the sixth inning.  He was actually only one pitch from getting out of the second (his Waterloo inning) unscathed, which would have changed the complexion of the game entirely.  Still, the Astros lose their fourth straight by a score of 7-3.

On the Mound:
The aforementioned Jarrod Cosart scuffled with his command, walking three in the first two innings, all of whom scored.  He would add only one more walk to his night, however (an IBB when he was down 3-0 to Giancarlo Stanton), who wouldn't score, thankfully.

Christian Yelich walked in the first, and was grounded to second and third by Jordany Valdespin and Giancarlo Stanton respectively.  He scored on an 0-2 single by the clutch-y Casey McGehee, who is has some ridiculous slash-line with RISP (.370/.455/.454).  In the second, Cosart loaded the bases with a leadoff walk, a flyout (excellent running catch by Kiké Hernandez), a double (runner to third) and a walk.  Christian Yelich then singled on the ninth pitch of his at-bat (after being 0-2 down) through the left side, and all runners advanced a base with one out.  Valdespin stuck out, but all that did was set the stage for Giancarlo Stanton, who smoked a double on a first pitching hanging curve just past the diving Marwin Gonzalez for a bases-clearing double. 

Cosart settled down, but spent long periods of time out of the stretch as he allowed leadoff singles in the third and fourth.  His best inning was the fifth, when he retired the side in order on nine pitches.  He convinced Bo to leave him in with two outs in the sixth and Christian Yelich at the dish -Yelich again singled through the left side after the first two pitches were recorded as strikes.  Darin Downs relieved and retired Valdespin to end the frame after Yelich easily stole second.

The seventh belonged to Veras, who struck out two in a perfect frame, and the eighth belonged to Sipp, who also didn't allow a runner to reach.  Chad Qualls started the ninth in a non-save situation, and he did what he does in low leverage, allowing an opposite field two-run shot to left off the bat of Jordany Valdespin - his first of the year.

At the Plate:
The Astros took an early 2-1 lead when, with 2-outs in the first, Carter (2-5, RBI) hit a clean single up the middle, and Castro smoked a shot to right off the second deck façade on a 2-0 count.  Kiké Hernandez (1-3, BB, 2B) nearly hit it out in the second with a deep drive to the left-centre that hit the wall that lines the visitors 'pen - a few feet to the right, and he would have got the wall where the HR-line sat much lower.  But it didn't, so it was a double.  In the third, Altuve (3-5) and Gonzalez (2-5) reached with no outs, then watched from the corners as Chris Carter smoked one up the middle which ricocheted off the back of Tom Koehler and rebounded into the glove of a waiting Adeiny Hechavarria at short.  Castro and Dominguez both struck out to end the frame after the bad luck on a sure RBI-single.  In the fourth, Krauss (2-3, 2B) doubled with one out, but was also left at second, and in the fifth, Altuve and Gonzalez again singled to start the frame, and this time Carter's single to CF didn't involve crazy-bad (back?) luck, so Altuve scored.  In the sixth, a Grossman (0-3, BB) walk with two outs moved Kiké to second, but Altuve was retired on a hard-hit ball to left.

Altuve reached with no outs in the ninth, and Marwin Gonzalez had a 11-pitch at-bat that ended with a strikeout looking off former catcher Chris Hatcher.  Hatcher also retired the last two batters in order, and the game was done.  Plenty of hard-hit balls, not a lot of luck, but the result was again a loss in a batting lineup affected by key injuries.

Turning Point:
Can't moan too much here, given that Cosart hung a curve down the pipe to Stanton with bases loaded, and Stanton hit it hard along the ground.  Another foot or so to the left, and Gonzalez has a shot at a force at second for the third out.  Not to be, however, and the four runs the Fish scored in that inning were enough to carry them through the game.

Man of the Match:
Jason Castro, 2-5, HR, 2RBI.

Goat of the Game:
Matt Dominguez and Jon Singleton both went 0-4 with a K (and Dominguez added a GIDP to his tally) batting in the 5-6 slots.  That combination effectively killed any rallies that didn't involve a Castro homer or a Carter line-drive.

Up Next:
Jacob Turner (3-6, 6.03) versus Collin McHugh (4-8, 3.28)

2 Eastern, 1 Central.  

From the Office of the County Clerk - G 103: Astros versus Marlins

Brad Hand (1-2, 4.86) v. Dallas Keuchel (9-6, 3.29)

The Astros, by virtue of missing three Centre Fielders (two of whom are amongst their best players offensively) have received sterling fill-in work from a mis-cast Kiké Hernandez in CF recently.  Hernandez, as I mentioned a couple of game recaps ago, started one game in CF at AA, and one at AAA.  Well, today it ended up biting the Astros as Hernandez made a critical error on a hard-hit line-drive that knuckled during its flight with one out in the seventh.  Two batters later, the score was 2-0 Marlins, and that is how it stayed because the Astros were shut down by a guy with a career 3-12 record.

Also of note is how long the Astros bottom-of-the-order looks against lefties, with Grossman, Hoes and Petit (called up in place of Anthony Bass) occupying the last three slots, and Guzman - who is not hitting at all - batting in the five hole.  It kind of seems like National League ball again, with Lane, Everett, Ausmus and whomever the pitcher-du-jour as the last four in the order.  That brings back warm fuzzies when thinking about 2004-5, and shivers down the spine when thinking of 2010.  Regardless it should never look that way in an American League park.  Because of the various injuries, this team looks seriously offensively challenged at the moment - although the team from the Dallas-Fort Worth area probably has dibs on injury-related sympathy at the moment.

On the Mound:
Tonight marked the return of the excellent Dallas Keuchel.  He was spotting his ball at the knees, coming inside to righties, and throwing his back-foot slider efficiently, getting swings in the process.  His final line: 7IP, 9H, 2R/0ER, 0BB, 7K.  He also kept the ball on the ground (9:4)

One may suggest the nine hits are a worry, but I would counter with the following facts: three of his hits were infield singles (one of them a bunt from Donovan Solano), and three more were seeing-eye singles along the ground just out of the reach of the fielders.  One of his doubles was a little unlucky (it hit third base) and the hardest-hit ball of the night was to the second-last batter he faced.  It could easily have been (i) a shutout and (ii) a win for Keuchel tonight.

That said, Keuchel also pitched very effectively around trouble.  He managed to make great pitches at critical times, including an inning-ending double-play in the fifth (with runners on the corners) and sixth (with runners on first and second).  The Marlins managed to string together some good at-bats against him, and he seemed to lack a put-away pitch, which was often a called third-strike at the knees earlier in the year.

He was unable to escape trouble in the seventh.  The frame opened eventfully, with a fairly hard-hit ball to right that Grossman ran down on the warning track.  It threatened to get over his head and go for extra bases.  Saltalamacchia then stung a line-drive to CF with knuckled, and Kiké had it bounce off the heel of his glove as jumped to track it down.  It was scored as an error, and Salty was on first.  He (critically) went to second on a passed ball, and Keuchel struck out Marcell Ozuna for the second out.    Then, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, on an 0-2 count, hit a slow grounder to short and beat out the throw.  If Salty has still been on first, the force at second may have been the easier play.  Regardless, runners on first and third, with the nine-hitter Jeff Mathis up.

Well, he stung a first-pitch fastball to the gap in left-centre (and it was well hit, hitting low on the wall below the giant pump), which scored two.  That was all the runs that the Marlins would need, and Keuchel's night ended two pitches later with a tame groundout to short.

Josh Fields relieved, and he managed a scoreless outing.  It wasn't an easy one, however, and he probably won't be ready to go tomorrow after throwing 34 pitches.  Fields' inning went walk, single, K (all on deep counts - 2-2 or 3-2), single to load the bases, fielders choice force at home, flyout to right.  The first three at-bats of his frame were excellent - the Marlins fought off a number of good pitches, and eventually managed to get two on with no outs.  But Fields got a critical grounder when it mattered, and he managed to leave the score the same as how he found it.

Veras finished up, walking the leadoff hitter, but retiring the side uneventfully.

At the Plate:
This will be brief, as the Astros managed only three hits and 2 walks.  The Marlins relief was excellent - the back-end of their 'pen is really impressive - and the Astros only managed to get two runners to second base.

Altuve went 1-4 leading off, and was caught stealing second on review in the sixth.  Carter (0-1, 2BB) and Castro (1-3, 2B) were the outstanding offensive performers, and were the only two Astros to get to stand on second all night.  Gregorio Petit (1-2) has an impressive .500/.500/.500 line for the 2014 season .  Krauss and Singleton both pinch-hit, and both K'd.

Gosh, and that was briefer that I could have imagined.

Turning Point:
An 0-2 slow roller to short could have ended the seventh uneventfully, but Gregorio Petit's throw to first was a hair late.  As has been the trend lately, Bo popped out of the dugout to show photos of his family to the first base ump while the Astros video team worked feverishly behind the scenes to see if a challenge was worth it.  It wasn't, and one pitch later, the Marlins scored the only runs of the game.

Man of the Match:
Chris Carter has been excellent lately, and against a guy having a career start, he was by far the best of the Astros batters.  However, he has to share the MoTM with Dallas Keuchel, who rediscovered his form while being a little unlucky with the BABIP-monster (the evil twin of the OPS-monster) and the extra-outs in the game.

Goat of the Game:
Kiké Hernandez has been getting a lot of positive press around here lately, but we-calls-it-as-we-sees-it, and he gets the goat tonight for his 0-4 performance at the dish, and his critical error in CF.  The error thing is a little rough because he is very mis-cast as a CF, but desperate times call for desperate measures, and in this case the desperate measure involves (i) putting a 22 year old middle-infielder with a handful of games above AA in CF and (ii) crossing ones fingers and toes.

Up Next:
Tom Koehler (6-7, 3.85) versus Jarred Cosart (9-6, 4.23)

Cosart has had a rough time of it recently, allowing 14ER in his last 3 starts (15-and-two-thirds)

7 Eastern, 6 Central.  Some guy is playing some music afterward too, I think.

Jimmy Paredes claimed by Marlins

This apparently happened yesterday, so you can see how much attention I was paying. The Marlins claimed outfielder/human cannonball Jimmy Paredes off waivers from the Astros yesterday. And thus ends one of the saddest eras in Astros' history.

Paredes, 22, was acquired from the Yankees with Mark Melancon in the 2010 Lance Berkman trade. Keith Law wrote at the time that Paredes was a "Toolsy, athletic infielder without a clear position. He could end up in centerfield long term, but he is still very crude overall and his swing and body don't point to future power. He needs to learn to take a walk more than once every week and a half."

Jonathan Mayo wrote that "His hands and feet don't work well enough to stay in the middle infield, but with a plus run tool, plus arm and plus body, there's still plenty to like about this high-ceiling prospect."

Following the 2010 season Mike Newman at Scouting the Sal said that Paredes' "best case scenario leaves Paredes as a passable second baseman with a solid combination of gap power and speed. Worst case, he’s little more than a very good athlete with a baseball skill set in which the pieces just never seem to fit together." Perhaps this is an indication of the Astros' farm system at the time, but Paredes ranked 7th on the Hardball Times' 2011 Astros prospect list.

For Corpus in 2011 Paredes hit .270/.300/.426, with 36 extra-base hits in 93 games, but 15 walks in 407 Plate Appearances. He made his Major-League debut in 2011, where in 179 PAs (46 games), he hit .286/.320/.393, good enough for a 97 OPS+. Not terrible, certainly encouraging for his Age 23 season, and he was expected to challenge Chris Johnson for the 3B spot in the 2012 season before getting sent to minor-league camp in Spring Training, where he was moved to the outfield.

For OKC in 2012, Paredes hit .318/.348/.477 (22 walks in 536 PAs) and in 24 games for the Astros, "hit" .189/.244/.230. In 2013 he again got some playing time in Houston, hitting .192/.231/.248 and giving him a 2012/13 OPS+ of 32. His .216 wOBA in 2013 was the 4th-worst among all MLB hitters with at least 130 PAs (out of 420 hitters). Of course he ran into Jose Altuve in a May game that derailed Altuve's season, and then ran into (some infielder) causing him to drop the ball, allowing the game-winning run to score.

Bye bye, Jimmy Paredes.

The Astros are not the Marlins

With all due respect to Peter Gammons, who has been honored by the Hall of Fame for excellence in baseball journalism (which, incidentally, does not make him a "Hall of Famer"), he is slightly full of crap.

Gammons tweeted early this morning that:
It's awfully hard for Bud Selig to come down on the Marlins for slashing payroll when the Astros are at $21M.

There's your typical national journalist, who simply looks at numbers, and not the reason behind them. The Marlins are a totally different animal than the Astros. How so?

1. "Slashing payroll?" Come on.

The Astros have not slashed payroll. They cleared out dead weight. 

In 2010, the Astros' payroll was $93.2m. In 2011 it was $71.1m. In 2012, they closed the season at $37.7m. That's a decline of 59.5%, before you get into the possibilities of 2013's payroll (which looks to be in the $25-30m range). But you look at the salaries of whom they were ridding themselves: Brett Myers' $11m contract. Wandy Rodriguez's $34m contract. Brandon Lyon's $5.5m. No more Carlos Lee at $18.5m per year. Just stopping there represents an impressive amount of money. Yet when each were traded, the response was either "It's about time," or "Luhnow is a genius."

Does Gammons want the Astros to replace all that payroll, especially after his September 2012 column in which he wrote:
What Crane, Postolos and Luhnow inherited was a team that was in the World Series seven years ago but was drained of talent because former owner Drayton McLane did not invest in the Draft.

You simply cannot retroactively blast the Astros for doing what everyone agreed should have been done at least three years earlier.

The Marlins have a special case. They dumped $181m in contracts in one day. That's not slashing payroll, that's 1929 on Wall Street. Their Opening day payroll in 2012 was $107.7m. Baseball-Reference estimates their payroll in 2013 to be $45m - a 58.8% decline in three baseball months.

Nobody wrote about how the Astros' rebuilding plan was "a baseball tragedy" as Jeff Passan did regarding the Marlins. Nobody wrote about the Astros disgracing baseball, as Time Magazine did. Nobody called the Astros' actions "inexcusable," as the Sporting News did.


2. The Astros didn't commit fraud.

Late in 2011 the SEC opened an investigation into the Marlins' ballpark deal.

CBS Sports wrote at the time:
The city and county are paying for nearly 80 percent of the $634 million stadium. The subpoenas focus, the report says, on the Marlins trying to determine the team's ability to pay for the financing of the stadium. Last year, the Marlins' financial records were leaked and they showed that the team had received the most money in Major League Baseball from its revenue-sharing system, while not investing it back into the team. The team said it was financial strapped and needed help from the city and county to build the stadium, which it ultimately received.

And then they went out and signed those $181m in contracts, wooing Albert Pujols, promising to put a competitive team on the field, a promise which didn't make it to the All-Star Break. Passan wrote in the above-linked article that, by the time the balloon payments are due on the ballpark, it will cost Miami-Dade taxpayers $2.4 billion.

Of owner Jeffrey Loria and president David Samson, Passan wrote:
And these were two men who for years lied about their finances, lied about their intentions, lied all to get Miami to build them a $634 million ballpark that was supposed to end this wretched cycle of turning a major league franchise into a swap meet.

For Peter Gammons to mention the Marlins' long-term plans with the Astros' long-term plans is, at best, lazy. At worst, it's ignorant.

Carlos Lee links

Today is the first day of the rest of our lives...

Marlins GM Michael Hill first made contact with Jeff Luhnow in May:
"We watched the club play and offense was a concern. We started to research different possibilities, different bats that might be available. … We felt like it was a good time to infuse a veteran, professional, experienced bat into the lineup."

Jeff Luhnow:
"Carlos Lee will help the Marlins. The Marlins are very invested in trying to win quickly and Lee can fit into that equation, and I think that's why they were interested in him. We have a different outlook. We're looking towards the future and we were able to get two players we believe will be a part of our future, and that was too good to pass up."
(Click the McTaggart link to read more about why the L.A. trade didn't happen.)

Jerome Solomon:
Take my word for it, rookie owner Jim Crane was more upset at having to take on Lee’s contract when he bought the team than he was about being bullied by Major League Baseball to move to the American League. At least MLB paid him $50 million to take the abuse. Lee was an $18.5 million albatross on the books.

Kevin Goldstein takes a quick look at Dominguez/Rasmussen at Baseball Prospectus.

Keith Law tweeted (in response to a question) that Dominguez and Rasmussen were a "defensive replacement and reliever."

Just in case you had wondered what the trade means for the Cubs (?)...