Sunday Morning Hot Links

The Astros continue to insist on not being a serious team, losing yet again - this time 10-8 - to the 48-101 Royals. 4.2% of the 2023 Royals season wins have come in the last two days against the so-called "defending World Series champion Astros." Seems to me like the Astros aren't defending anything. 

*AL Playoff Picture, dumb as it is:

1. Baltimore (92-56)

2. Houston (83-66)

3. Minnesota (78-71)

4. Tampa (92-58)

5. Rockwall (82-66)

6. Toronto (82-67)

7. Seattle (81-67)

*AL West Division Odds

FanGraphs:

Houston: 60.3%

Seattle: 20.2%

Rockwall: 19.4%

Baseball-Reference:

Houston: 57.0%

Rockwall: 25.3%

Seattle: 17.7%

*For the second day in a row every single AL West team lost, so I guess there's no harm no foul? Sure would have been nice to, you know, beat one of the two worst teams in the league and extend this lead. Houston has lost four of their last five, and five of their last eight games.

*The Astros are now 1-4 against the A's and Royals in September, two teams who are a combined 94-203, getting outscored 26-18 in the process. 

*The Royals came into the night with the 2nd-fewest walks of any American League team, and the 3rd-worst OBP in the AL. So of course the Astros walked them six times - just the 10th time the Royals have taken six walks in a single game this season. 

*Houston pitchers managed to only strike out one Royal (and it was by Joel Kuhnel, who did it with two outs in the 9th. The last time Houston only struck out one batter in a game was September 10, 2020.

*Kansas City is now 6-30 when they give up eight runs in a game. The Astros are now 29-3 when scoring eight runs in a game. 

*Pitching was freaking terrible. 

J.P. France: 4.1IP, 5H/5ER, 0K:4BB. 

Bullpen: 4.2IP, 5H/5R (2ER), 1K:2BB.

There were three unearned runs thanks to errors from Pena and Bregman - the 14th error of the season for each of them, and Rafael Montero walked in a run. Just a cursed game from start to finish. Bregman:

We've got a small lead in the division but we need to play better baseball. It starts with me. I need to make that play today. We need to execute better.

Dusty:

The leadoff walks really hurt us. And with a team that has speed and runs as much as they do, when you walk them, you're asking for trouble. We had some real big hits, but it was the leadoff walks and a couple of errors, and we opened the gates for them, and they walked through.

The Astros walked the leadoff batter in three of the nine innings, and each leadoff walk came around to score. Again, the Royals have drawn the second-fewest walks in Major League Baseball and have the 5th-worst OPS among the 30 teams. 

*France's last three starts: 15.1IP, 15H/11ER, 10K:12BB, 4HR, a 6.46 ERA (7.69 FIP). He had walked 12 batters in his previous seven starts dating back to July 25. France:

Yeah, they were frustrating. But I mean, the word I keep using for that outing was just 'unbelievable.' They didn't chase a whole lot. But the stuff they did chase somehow found grass. I had one hit that was three balls off the plate, I had one that was three balls down. So yeah, I just couldn't get swings and misses for some reason.

I guess France didn't allow a home run, so that's nice. It was the first time since August 12 that France hadn't allowed a dinger. 

*Having tied the game at 6-6 thanks to Jose Altuve's welcome arrival to this week, Hector Neris: 1IP, 2H/3R (1ER), 0K:1BB - the first runs he'd allowed since August 19. His three runs allowed (though two were unearned) are a season-high, at the worst possible time. Neris has a 1.93 ERA but a 4.05 FIP. 

*The run that Joel Kuhnel allowed in the 9th snapped a little four-outing scoreless streak he had working in September.

*Shoutout to the top of the lineup, who remembered that the Astros need to win these games. Altuve-Bregman-Alvarez went a combined 7x14 with 6RBI - three of them came on Jose Altuve's 17th home run of the year. 

Number of seasons with 20+ HR, playing 90% of their games at 2B:

Jeff Kent: 11

Robinson Cano: 8

Craig Biggio/Rogers Hornsby/Dan Uggla: 7

Bret Boone/Brian Dozier/Joe Gordon/Ryne Sandberg: 6

Jose Altuve/Ian Kinsler/Chase Utley: 5

*The 5-6 hitters (Abreu-McCormick) were the only batters in the lineup without a hit, combining to "go" 0x8 with 4K:2BB. I have no idea why Jose Abreu is hitting 5th. 108 batters have received 500+ Plate Appearances. Abreu's -1.0 fWAR ranks 108th. There are only two other batters with that many PAs and a negative fWAR and guess fking what: they play for the gd Kansas City Royals (MJ Melendez and Sal Parez...who combined to go 2x6 with 3RBI last night). 

Abreu's ranks among 108 batters with 500 PAs:

fWar: -1.0 (108th)

BA: .235 (T-94th)

OBP: .295 (103rd)

SLG: .365 (104th)

wRC+: 82 (105th)

Abreu hitting 5th is about five spots too high. 

*Chas McCormick's last eight games: 3x23, 8K:1BB, .130/.167/.130.

*Kyle Tucker, September: .200/.305/.380.

*The Astros are auctioning off items from last night's salute to the Negro Leagues, all benefiting the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.

*Framber Valdez takes on Former Astros Great Jordan Lyles today. 111 pitchers have thrown at least 100IP, and Lyles' 6.44 ERA is 110th. So I'm assuming a CGSHO is on the cards. Lyles has faced the Astros eight times in his career and is 2-2 with a career 3.98 ERA. 

*McTaggart has a cool season-ending profile on 2023 1st Round pick Brice Matthews.

*The Astros had conversations this summer with the Red Sox about the availability of Alex Verdugo.

*And so Shohei Ohtani's season - and likely his tenure with the cursed Angels - is done. In six seasons (including 2020) with the Angels, Ohtani hit .274/.366/.556 with 171 homers, three All-Star selections, a Rookie of the Year Award, an MVP award (and a 2nd place finish, as well), and a Top 5 Cy Young nod. As a pitcher, he went 38-19 with a 3.01 ERA. Ohtani was worth 19.9 fWAR as a hitter and 11.8 fWAR as a pitcher, for 31.7 fWAR. They paid him $39.7m. In the same time span, Mike Trout posted a 31.5 fWAR, meaning the Angels got 63.2 fWAR from two players since 2018. 

Yet in those six seasons (well, five seasons and a Mickey Mouse season with a Mickey Mouse World Series) the Angels have gone 368-461 (a .444 winning percentage). They never had a winning season. They never finished higher than 3rd in the AL West. Just a completely criminally mismanaged franchise, and I hope it continues forever and ever. 

*Longest streak of winning their respective division, team history, 1961-present (to weed out all those New York years where the commissioner(s) operated in franchise mode to help the Yankees win):

11: Atlanta (1995-2005)

9: New York Yankees (1998-2006)

8: Los Angeles (2013-2020)

5: Philadelphia (2007-2011); Cleveland (1995-1999); Oakland (1971-1975)

4: Detroit (2011-2014)

3: Boston (2016-2018); Houston (2017-2019; 1997-1999); St. Louis (2013-2015; 2004-2006); Anaheim (2007-2009); Minnesota (2002-2004); Toronto (1991-1993); Pittsburgh (1990-1992; 1970-1972); Kansas City (1976-1978); Baltimore (1969-1971)

2: Tampa (2020-2021); Washington (2016-2017); Rockwall (2015-2016; 2010-2011; 1998-1999); Chicago Cubs (2016-2017; 2007-2008); San Diego (2005-2006); Arizona (2001-2002); Chicago White Sox (1993-1994); Milwaukee (1981-1982); Cincinnati (1975-1976; 1972-1973)

1: San Francisco (2021, 2012, 2010, 2003, 2000, 1997, 1989, 1987, 1971, 1962); Seattle (1995, 1997, 2001); New York Mets (1969, 1973, 1986, 1988, 2006, 2015)

0: Miami; Colorado.

*Former Phillies manager Charlie Manuel suffered a stroke.

*Bob Odenkirk talked to NME about his time on SNL.

*The Ringer: The Deion Sanders Experience Is Unlike Anything College Football Has Ever Seen.

*American Sepp Kuss is set to win the Vuelta a Espana today, the second American to ever do it and the first since Chris Horner in 2013. 

*What To Watch, September 17:

Leeds @ Millwall: 6:00am Central

Colts @ Texans: 12:00pm

Rays @ Orioles: 12:35pm

Boston @ Toronto: 12:37pm

Rangers @ Guardians: 12:40pm

Astros @ Royals: 1:10pm

49ers @ Rams: 3:05pm

Dodgers @ Mariners: 3:10pm

The regular season ends two weeks from today.

*A Musical Selection:

Monday Morning Hot Links

I'm trying to come up with a crazier two games for the Astros than what we just saw between Saturday and Sunday...and I got nothing. The Astros win a wild one 9-8 to take the series in Anaheim. Houston is 52-42, still three games back because the Rangers swept the useless-ass Guardians. The Astros are 7-5 in July.

*Houston is 7-3 against Anaheim this season. The Astros have not lost a series in Anaheim since April 4-6, 2021. 

*The Astros were 3x17 w/RISP on Sunday night. 

*The Astros were down 3-1 in the top of the 7th, the Angels had a 97.9% win expectancy, then scored eight of the final nine runs of the game. Dusty:

They broke our hearts last night, and we broke their hearts today.

*Houston hit five home runs in a single game for the 3rd time this season. Houston scored five runs on three two-out homers. The Astros are 8-0 when hitting 3+ homers in a game. 

*Alex Bregman is BACK had a nice game, going 4x5 with a crucial home run and a walk. It was his first 4-hit game since August 18, 2022. Bregman, June 16-July 16: 25 games, .260/.351/.440, 14K:14BB. Bregman:

We have winning players. [Saturday] night, Grae throws a ball away. It happens all the time in this game. Comes back today, big double off the wall and has a huge at-bat in the 9th inning to get the tying run on base. Up and down the lineup, it's guys that know how to compete and do the little things right. When we do the little things right, we're damn hard to beat.

*Kyle Tucker was 4x5 with a walk, as well. Since Yordan went out with an oblique, Tucker: .350/.439/.581, 17K:18BB. Oh, and he saved the game with a diving catch to end it in the 9th. Tucker:

It was a hard-fought, back-and-forth game. They kept bouncing back and we kept doing the same. We had a lot of big hits and nice defensive plays. It was good to win the series.

Chandler Rome, on the "criminally underrated" Kyle Tucker. 

*Chas McCormick hit two homers, bringing his season total to 11 in 59 games. His career high is 14HR, set in both 2021 and 2022, in 108 and 119 games, respectively. It was the second 2HR game of his career, the first since June 16, 2021. He went 7x11 with 3HR in the Anaheim series.

*Jake Meyers hit his first home run since June 5. It was his first extra-base hit since June 29. 

*Grae Kessinger was 2x4 with a walk. He's 4x8 with a double, homer, and a walk in his last two starts. 

*Jose Abreu had his first 0x6 game since May 9, 2022. In his last 31 games Abreu is hitting .294/.321/.516. 

*Cristian Javier needed 91 pitches to get 15 outs, though he held the Angels to 4H/3ER, 7K:2BB. Javier has recorded 15 or fewer outs in six of his last eight starts. 

*Phil Maton got his first save since June 17, 2017, which was his 4th career MLB game. Chronicle: How Maton is handling his heavy workload.

*Joel Kuhnel made his Astros debut, I guess, allowing 2H/3ER, 0K:1BB in 1.2IP. The five outs he got were more valuable than the runs he gave up, given how hard the bullpen has been working. 

*The Angels are 19-12 when Shohei Ohtani homers. 

*McTaggart says you can expect the Astros to be buyers at the deadline, but it's not going to be a marquee name coming to Houston.

*Dana Brown said in the pre-game show that (a) Yordan has a head cold, (b) Altuve could start a rehab assignment this week, and (c) they're hoping to get Brantley back "one way or another," which...what does that even mean?

*Check out AstrosFuture's minor-league recap from Sunday.

*Jon Singleton, Sugar Land, 2023: .296/.412/.611.

*Updated draft signings and financials are...updated.

*I did a deep dive on the early 1990s Pirates/Braves, if that's a thing that you're in to.

*A Legends Home Run Derby? Sign me up (to watch, not hit.)

*France's Women's World Cup video is freaking awesome. 

*A Musical Selection:

Sunday Morning Hot Links

The Astros beat the Mariners 3-2 to improve to 50-40, snapping a two-game skid. Framber did Framber Things. The Offense did Offense Things. They're the 4th AL team to hit 50 wins. The Astros are two back of the Rangers, and are guaranteed to head into the Break no more than three games back. 

Game Number of 50th Win, Astros recent history:

2023: 90

2022: 77

2021: 83

2019: 80

2018: 77

2017: 74

2016: 92

2015: 92

2014: 120

2013: 146

*The Astros improved to 10-10 in 1-run games. 

*After scoring six runs in the final game of the Rockies series, the Astros have scored five runs in the last three games. 

*Houston won despite only getting four hits, improving to 1-9 when recording four or fewer hits. 

*Alex Bregman has an RBI in consecutive games for the first time since June 24-25. He has two extra-base hits in his last 58 PAs. 

*Framber: 6IP, 5H/2ER, 6K:2BB. He ends the first half with a 3.2 fWAR, 2.51 ERA. He's one of five pitchers to post at least a 3.0 fWAR in the first half (Gauman, Gallen, Wheeler, and Strider are the others). 

Dusty:

We needed it very badly against them. We were 1-4 [vs Seattle] going into today and...we wanted to pick up a game or two this weekend. And the fact Texas lost. I didn't think they had a good chance of losing, but baseball is baseball.

Framber wants to start the All-Star Game.

*Bullpen: 3IP, 0H/0ER, 4K:4BB. Hector Neris loaded the bases with nobody out in the 8th, and got out of it, somehow. Scott Servais on the Mariners' half of the 8th:

We had them against the ropes and couldn't deliver the knockout punch. On the road, you've got to score and not just, like, get one in that inning. In my mind, I'm hoping we get two or three when you get the bases loaded. Then you look up and [Neris] wiggled his way out of it.

Matt Kawahara notes (first link) that Saturday was Neris' 110th appearance since the beginning of the 2022 season. Provided he doesn't finish 2023 on the IL, the club option for 2024 converts to a player option. 

*Ryan Pressly walked a batter for the first time since June 20 - a span of 27 batters between walks. Pressly's last ten games: 11IP, 0H/1R (0ER), 11K:4BB.

*Martin Maldonado hit the go-ahead homer in the bottom of the 8th to provide the game-winning run. It's the latest in a game he has homered since September 21, 2022. Five of his six home runs in 2023 have come with the bases empty.

*Yordan, Bregman, and Tucker all have 55+ RBI, the first time since 2001 that the Astros have had three players with 55+ RBI before the All-Star Break.

*Ronel Blanco was optioned to Sugar Land, and Joel Kuhnel was brought up. Blanco can be optioned two more times this season before being put on outright waivers first.

*Mauricio Dubon has had a fortuitous first half.

*Yordan Alvarez took BP prior to the game and hit balls 107, 109, and 111mph.

*The MLB Draft is tonight! Check out MLB.com's final Mock Draft (Ty Floyd and Ralphy Velasquez are in the mix) and ESPN's final Mock Draft (Brock Wilken and Cameron Johnson).

SETX-area guys in ESPN's projected first 70 picks include Blake Mitchell (Sinton HS) and Kendall George (Atascocita HS). And the Chronicle put together a full list of Houston-area draft prospects.

*Elly De La Cruz got a single, and then proceeded to steal 2nd, 3rd, and home. 

*Bob Huggins is Hugginsing things up, naturally.

*The best movies on Amazon Prime right now.

*A Musical Selection: