FanGraphs: 43.2% to win division, 66.1% to make postseason.
Baseball-Reference: 32.8% to win division, 70% to make postseason.
*When can the Astros catch the Rangers for the division lead? The Astros start the second half with nine road games before coming back home to play Upper Mansfield: three at Anaheim, two at Colorado, and four at Oakland. The Astros are 13-2 against those three teams in 2023.
The Ramgers also have nine games, all of them at home, before coming to Minute Maid Park: three vs Cleveland, three vs Tampa, and three vs the Dodgers. They lost a three-game series against Tampa already, but haven't played Cleveland or LA - who are both lead their respective divisions.
But to go up in the division, the Astros have to be three games better than the Rangers in the next nine games. So if the Rangers go 4-5, the Astros have to go 7-2 (this seems simple, but just making sure everyone understands the maths). It's hard to make up three games in nine games, unless of course you're trying to catch the 2007 Mets lol.
*1st Half OPS vs 2nd Half OPS, career:
Alex Bregman: .820 / .919 (+99 points)
Jose Abreu: .810 / .882 (+72 points)
Kyle Tucker: .818 / .869 (+51 points)
Martin Maldonado: .616 / .637 (+21 points)
Mauricio Dubon: .651 / .664 (+13 points)
Jose Altuve: .834 / .840 (+6 points)
Yordan Alvarez: .989 / .957 (-32 points)
Jeremy Pena: .729 / .664 (-65 points)
*The Astros open the second half hoping for better health, and pitching reinforcements.
*MLB: What each team learned in the 1st Half.
*Chandler Rome: The Astros are right to focus on pitching help at the deadline.
*Yordan and Jose Urquidy will be in Sugar Land tomorrow night on a rehab assignment.
*Kyle Tucker gave Shohei Ohtani his free agency pitch.
*The 2024 season schedule has been released, and the Astros host the Yankees to start the 2024 campaign. They'll also play a series against the Rockies in Mexico City.
*FanGraphs: Jay Jaffe's Cooperstown Notebook still gives Altuve a good shot at making the HOF.
*The 2023 Astros MLB Draft page is live, and at the moment I do have the energy to keep up with it.
*Texas Monthly: This heat is killing us.
*Rodger Sherman: The sudden, inevitable downfall of Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern.
*A Musical Selection: